Category Archives: The dismal science

Bill Black: Let’s Celebrate the Failure of the July 2011 Great Betrayal

By Bill Black, the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives

In July 2011, President Obama and Speaker Boehner reached an agreement in principle on a deal crafted to inflict $4 trillion in austerity by raising taxes modestly, slashing social spending, and beginning to unravel the safety net. The deal would have been a disaster for America. Unemployment was 9.1%. The deal would have thrown us back into a recession and caused unemployment to surge. Recessions and increased unemployment cause tax revenues to fall and increase demand for social services (e.g., for unemployment compensation) – they produce large deficits. Austerity kills jobs and frequently increases deficits. The Eurozone is the latest demonstration of this fact.

We should, therefore, all be celebrating the failure of the July 2011 austerity deal.

Philip Pilkington: Economics as Machine – The Nature and Folly of the Forecasters

By Philip Pilkington, a writer and research assistant at Kingston University in London. You can follow him on Twitter @pilkingtonphil

Too large a proportion of recent “mathematical” economics are mere concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols.

– John Maynard Keynes

The Probability of Greek Exit, Revisited

Fears of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone have subsided, for now. This column attempts to measure the probability of a Greek exit, finding that the changing fortunes of Greek political parties, and the possibility of an early election, mean that the risk of a Greek exit may actually be quite high. It suggests that, despite investors’ efforts to measure political risk, a persistent sense of unease about the Eurozone’s future is set to continue into 2013 and that Eurozone financial assets will thus continue to embed significant risk premiums in the coming years.

Stephanie Kelton Explains Modern Monetary Theory to You

Stephanie Kelton and Lauren Lyster of RT discussed Modern Monetary Theory with Kelton parsing out the prescriptive from the descriptive elements.

Krugman Ponders the Fallen State of US Labor

Paul Krugman is troubled by this chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is looking for explanations.

Risk and Reward in High Frequency Trading

A new paper that analyzes the activities and effects of high frequency trading reaches some damning conclusions.

Former Belgian Central Banker on Why the Money System is a Taboo Topic

Lively and provocative. Do yourself a favor and watch it. Hat tip Richard Smith via creditplumber.

Econ4 Video on the Housing and Foreclosure Crisis (With Your Humble Blogger in a Supporting Role)

Econ4, which is a group of reform minded economists (that may sound like an oxymoron but it isn’t) is presenting a series of videos on major topics where it believes our policies are seriously out of whack. Their latest release is on housing and foreclosures. Your humble blogger is a participant.

Philip Pilkington: Monetary Policy and Metaphysics – How Economists Try to Naturalise Terrible Policies and Disappear Into Their Own Theories

Yves here. Philip Pilkington makes an interesting argument in this post, namely, that the method preferred among mainstream economists for managing the economy encourages investors to speculate in financial instruments rather than invest in real economy assets and projects.