2:00PM Water Cooler 2/9/2016

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

TTP/TTIP/TiSA

“TTIP and the architecture of impunity” [Bilaterals.org]. “The legal context: the rights of transnational companies are protected by a global legal order based on trade and investment rules which have the following characteristics: they are mandatory, backed up by a sanction and enforceable (Hard Law). In contrast, their obligations are rooted in national legal orders that are subject to neoliberal logic, International Law of Human Rights that is patently fragile and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) – voluntary, unilateral and deprived of legal force (Soft law). The TTIP forms part of this legal-political framework of domination.”

“TPP Is ‘Fundamentally Flawed’ and Should Be Resisted, Says U.N. Human Rights Expert” [Truthdig (RZ)].

ISDS: “Record Number of Investor-State Arbitrations Filed in 2015” [Investment Policy Hub]. “Alfred de Zayas, the U.N.’s independent expert on the promotion of democratic and equitable international order, said the TPP ‘is fundamentally flawed and should not be signed or ratified unless provision is made to guarantee the regulatory space of [s]tates.'”

Malaysia: “[T]he mysterious US$681 million (RMB2.83 billion at current exchange rates) that showed up in the personal AmBank account of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak in 2013 has been said to come from so many different sources and to be used for so many different purposes that the government can’t keep track.” [Asia Sentinel]. Filing this under the TPP since it seems odd that the one possibility never mentioned is a bribe to get Malaysia on board TPP from Najib’s golfing partner, Obama. It would be irresponsible not to speculate….

UK: “A study by the London School of Economics into the potential effects of TTIP showed that we could expect to face as many ISDS cases as Canada under their similar NAFTA agreement with the US. Canada, by the way, is currently the most sued developed country in the world under ISDS, with cases such as oil company Lone Pine Resources suing the government for issuing a moratorium on fracking” [Independent]. “Canada has eight per cent of US foreign direct investment stock compared to the UK’s 13 per cent according to the LSE study, so it is easy to see how we could face an equal if not greater number of ISDS cases against us.”

New Zealand: “Trans-Pacific Partnership National Interest Analysis” (PDF) [New Zealand Foreign Affairs & Trade].

2016

The Voters

“Perhaps the most eye-popping statistic to come out of last week’s Iowa caucuses was Bernie Sanders’s overwhelming advantage among young voters” [CNN]. “[V]iews of socialism are highly correlated with a voter’s age. According to a May 2015 YouGov poll, conducted just before Sanders launched his campaign, a plurality of voters aged 18 to 29 had a favorable view of socialism. But among voters 65 and older, just 15 percent viewed socialism favorably, to 70 percent unfavorably.” So it’s down to the Democratic establishment to destroy socialism as an ideal among youth. Sort of amazing that vulgar Marxism gives a perfectly reasonable account of this, but in a crisis, things correlate.

“[T]he woman who made Clinton cry is undecided in 2016” [Guardian]. With other interviews.

“Bernie Sanders is only presidential candidate who pays his interns” [Independent]. Note appeal this would have for young voters.

“Black Lives Matter movement refuses to endorse any 2016 presidential candidate” [Guardian].

The Big Dog on Monday: Sanders supporters are “vicious.” The Big Dog on Tuesday: ” I get how frustrating it is” [Mother Jones]. Not to mention Sanders supporters watch “cartoons,” as if they were six-year-olds. Because message discipline.

“Sanders and Clinton represent two very different ideologies. Each of these ideologies wants control of the Democratic Party so that this party’s resources can be used to advance a different conception of what a good society looks like. This is not a matter of taste and these are not flavors of popcorn” [Benjamin Studebaker]. So Bernie Sanders is not merely running to attempt to implement a set of idealistic policies that a republican-controlled congress is likely to block. He is running to take the Democratic Party back from an establishment that ignores the fundamental systemic economic problems that lead to wage stagnation and economic crisis. Those who say that the Democratic Party cannot be reclaimed by the FDR/LBJ types or that if it is reclaimed it will flounder in elections against the GOP are thinking too small.”

Corruption

Clinton Goldman speech, attendee: “She sounded more like a Goldman Sachs managing director” [Politico]. I’m taking comfort in the idea that Clinton has a future after politics…

“Someday, and that day may never come, I will call upon you to do a service for me. But until that day, accept this gift.” – Don Corleone – “The Godfather” (1972) [LA Progressive].

The Trail

“Bloomberg didn’t elaborate on what scenario would prompt him to throw his hat in the ring. Previous reports suggested that Bloomberg would only run if the Republicans nominated Donald Trump or Ted Cruz and the Democrats went with Bernie Sanders” [New York Magazine]. I think the Short-Fingered Vulgarian would gut the Soda-Hating Mayor-for-Life, but what do I know?

Brock: “Senator Sanders is trying to live in the purity bubble, and it needs to be burst” [Politico]. The Lanni– Clintons always pay their debts. And David Brock’s hair; why am I reminded of American Werewolf in London?

“Hillary Clinton’s White House campaign is going negative against her left-wing rival Bernie Sanders — and a lot of unaligned Democrats think that’s a bad idea” [The Hill]. “[E]ven some Clintonites have found his tone perplexing. “It doesn’t feel strategic. It feels reactionary,” another ally said. “Angry Bill is kind of fun but when he’s looking older and older, not so much. I don’t understand it. In the end, show me anyone who believes [Sanders] gets the nomination, so why not keep his supporters happy for the general?”

Clinton: “Senator Sanders took about $200,000 from Wall Street firms. Not directly, but through the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. There was nothing wrong with that. It hasn’t changed his view! Well, it didn’t change my view or my vote either!” [Politico].

First, on “view or vote,” Elizabeth Warren disagrees, as we have seen. Second, here’s how the Framers defined corruption: “The self-serving use of public power for private ends.” In Clinton’s case, the public power is her past and prospective office; the private end is “$675” followed by three zeroes. That’s just not the same as using DSCC money for a campaign, and it’s unfortunate that the Clintons dumb down public understanding in that regard. Third, the DSCC money isn’t this election. That’s important, because Sanders proving that you can run a big campaign 70% based on small donations, without sucking up to big money at all is a political first. Democrats should be emulating Sanders, not smearing him. And Clinton’s not dumb; she could have tried just the same strategy. Why didn’t she? Fourth, “not directly” is the difference, right? It’s true that the DSCC, like the Democratic establishment as a whole, is corrupt to the bone, but the DSCC serves as a money laundry exactly to protect candidates from stuff like, oh, cashing a personal check for $675,000 from an industry they hope to regulate. Fifth, speaking of money, Sanders raised a ton for Democrats, and when he caucused with Democrats in 2006 he helped give control of the Senate to them. So, yeah, I already know Sanders isn’t pure, but I also see that expecting gratitude from the Democrat establishment for giving them control of the Senate is like asking for empathy from a snake or a weasel. So let’s not talk about pure. Let’s ask: Who’s dirtier? #JustSaying.

Clinton on Albright saying young women who support Sanders are going to hell: “Honest to goodness, I mean, people can’t say anything without offending somebody” [Yahoo]. Wait, I thought Republicans played the political correctness card? And does this mean people can say mean things on the Internet after all?

“WOW. Before the “Bernie Bro,” Clinton supporters created the “Obama boy.” No, seriously.” [Daily Kos]. Well… I remember the 2008 campaign vividly, and the sexism directed at Clinton was brutal, from beginning to end. So “created” is wrong. But if that’s the baseline… I haven’t seen anything that meets that baseline, though it’s true I don’t track newer media, like Reddit. (One difference might be that the 2008 wars took place in comment sections; the attackers came to you. But in 2016, I wonder if the wars take place in siloes, like Reddit.)

“Hillary and Bill Clinton are so dissatisfied with their campaign’s messaging and digital operations they are considering staffing and strategy changes after what’s expected to be a loss in Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire, according to a half-dozen people with direct knowledge of the situation” [Politico].

Ouch:


Funny, but I’ll note that (a) this is before the NH results (though perhaps Axelrod is privy to internal campaign data) and (b) the “Clinton campaign in disarray” storyline is as old as the “Democrats in disarray” story.

“Both parties’ frontrunners carry baggage. For my money, Bernie’s is the lightest. As for the notion that voters can’t see that paying $1,000 in taxes beats paying $5,000 in health insurance premiums, it is an insult to the American people” [Salon]. Fun article.

“The FBI formally confirmed that its investigation connected to Hillary Clinton’s private email server remains ongoing in a letter released on Monday” [The Hill]. “Key details about the probe remain unclear, such as whether it is tied to a possible criminal case or whether it has expanded beyond an initial security review.”

“Would Bernie Sanders get blown out in November? This political scientist doesn’t think so” [Greg Sargent, WaPo]. Clickbait-y headline, but interesting discussion (and note that Betteridge’s Law says the answer is “No.”)

“I Miss Barack Obama” [David Brooks, New York Times]. 2008. Good times.

New Hampshire

Readers, as of press time I have no results, not even an entrance poll. I hope you’ll add results in comments!

Poll of polls, 2/2-2/8: Sanders +13.3 [Real Clear Politics]. And Trump +17.2 [Real Clear Politics].

Poll of polls: Sanders +14%. And Trump +16% [CNN].

“The Granite State has a long tradition of thumbing its nose at the preferences of Iowa, its “Five Takeaways From Past New Hampshire Primaries” [NBC]. Late deciders: “In 2012, 21 percent of Republican voters said they made their final call about who to support on the day of the primary itself. In 2008, a similar share made their calls on primary day itself, both on the GOP and Democratic side. In all three cycles, the late deciders supported the primary winner.” In other words, just as in Iowa, there could be late movement the polls don’t show.

first-in-the-nation twin” [New York Magazine]. “Another HRC shocker in the Granite State seems most unlikely; Bernie Sanders has the national underdog mojo going for him this time around, along with local celebrity. But upsetting the apple cart of the GOP betting-favorite Rubio, if that happens, would be enough to keep the state’s impish reputation for unpredictability alive. ”

“Nashua city clerk expects 65 percent voter turnout for primary” [Union Leader].

“New Hampshire’s New Voter-ID Law Could Lead to Longer Lines, Voter Intimidation” [The Nation]. Hmm. Oddly, or not, voter suppression would benefit the Democrat establishment as much as the Republican one.

“Younger voters and the Connecticut River Valley are essential to Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton needs Manchester to deliver for her one more time” [Politico]. New Hampshire isn’t static, and has changed a lot since 2008.

“The key to winning New Hampshire lies in the southeast of the state” (maps and charts) [WaPo]. (Part of this article, a good wrap-up in the narrative mode.) Manchester is in the southeast, and Sanders has been speaking there. In the link that follows, I wish Bloomberg had written about canvassing in the southeast, instead of up state.

“Much of New Hampshire is considered difficult to canvass, given the sparse population in the northern half of the state and the mountainous terrain that mottles it throughout. A surfeit of Sanders volunteers is pushing into parts of the state past campaigns would have considered inefficient to walk—even recruiting so-called driving teams of up to four people to team up on rural roads and snowy driveways” [Bloomberg]. “The decision to turn away from phone banks comes after aggressively running a program that shocked Sanders staffers with its inefficiency. Over the week of Jan. 25, Sanders volunteers completed 11,000 phone conversations out of 250,000 calls placed—and 15,000 face-to-face conversations out of 60,000 attempted doorstep visits.” So, one tactic I’ve been worried about, push polls, might not work except among people who have retained their land lines — like moi, readers — and that group skews old, and is therefore more likely to vote for Clinton. On the other hand, knocking on a lot of rural doors is a lot harder than knocking on doors in Manchester.

“Polling suggests that trust in Clinton, as well as her support among women and those earning less than $50,000 a year, has eroded since Granite State voters gave her that triumph in 2008. The New Hampshire electorate also has changed, with fewer blue-collar Democrats who served as a staple of Clinton’s coalition in 2008 and her husband’s in 1992 when he won the presidency” [Bloomberg]. Actually, as we’ve seen, Sanders does better than Clinton in under-$50K.

Trump: “I hope you’re angry enough to go out and vote tomorrow, folks” [Los Angeles Times].

“Watch Donald Trump Take a Little Too Much Delight in (Sort of) Calling Ted Cruz ‘a Pussy'” [Mediate]. Maddow: “Donald Trump, closing the deal with Republican New Hampshire voters.”

Stats Watch

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, January 2016: “Small business optimism index fell back sharply in January, to 93.9 from December’s 95.2 and reflecting deepening pessimism over both the economic outlook and sales expectations” [Econoday]. “[T]wo important components remain exceptionally positive, jobs hard to fill and plans to increase capital outlays.” NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg states: “Neither the tumultuous stock market nor the Federal Reserve’s rake hike had much of an influence on this month’s drop in small business owner optimism. Most of the decline was accounted for by expected business conditions in the next six months and the expected real sales” [Econintersect]. In an election year…

JOLTS, December 2015: “Job openings surged in December, foretelling perhaps January’s surge [?] in the labor participation rate” [Econoday]. “n an indication that workers are moving up to better jobs, the quits rate rose 1 tenth to 2.1 percent. The layoffs rate, portending the decline in the unemployment rate, fell 1 tenth in the month to 1.1 percent. This is a strong report and a reminder that the labor market continues to move to something called full employment, defined by convention as the flashpoint for wage inflation.”

Wholesale Trade, December 2015: “Wholesale inventories fell an as-expected 0.1 percent in December with November revised 1 tenth lower to minus 0.4 percent. Wholesalers have been liquidating inventories as sales have been falling” [Econoday]. “And they’ve been successful, keeping down the stock-to-sales ratio at 1.32 the last two reports which is still however up noticeably from 1.24 in December 2015. The factory sector hasn’t been as successful keeping down inventories, showing a 0.2 percent rise in December.”

“Labor is gaining strength, but prices are going nowhere” [Bloomberg].

Honey for the Bears: “This obscure indicator is flashing red for the US economy” [Business Insider]. “Demand for oil, and particularly so-called distillates — which are refined oil products such as jet fuels and heating oils — is crashing. Barclays does cite some mitigating factors, such as unusually warm winter weather and the fact this is based on preliminary data that may get revised upward later on. But it doesn’t look great.” The clickbait-y headilne should read “This one obscure indicator.” Can do better, Business Insider!

Honey for the Bears: “Jingle mail rears its ugly head in Alberta again” [CBC]. Canadian real estate law is different from US law, but you can still see that what happens in the oil patch doesn’t stay in the oil patch.

Honey for the Bears: “Ever since the Federal Reserve began to withdraw monetary stimulus, liquidity has steadily been drying up” [Bloomberg]. “Flanagan and Ding [of Merrill Lynch] warned that widening spreads for a variety of securitized products would accompany an environment in which liquidity continues to be wanting. Risk assets would presumably also come under pressure

Shipping: “The disappointing pre-Christmas shipping rush and the Chinese New Year lull created a two-quarter short-term pain, while the deteriorating container shipping business in light of the prolonged global business downturn will keep the shipping companies on the edge for most of 2016” [Splash247].

The Fed: “Fed May Lack Legal Authority for Negative Rates: 2010 Memo” [Bloomberg]. “Speculation has increased that the Fed might consider negative rates in the next economic downturn as concerns of a U.S. slowdown have mounted.” Hmm. “The next economic downturn.” Maybe I should have filed this under “Honey for the Bears”?

The Fed: “The results presented here reinforce our earlier message that corporate bond market liquidity appears ample based on the bid-ask spread and price impact measures. ” [Liberty Street]. But: “An important caveat is that our measures cannot be estimated for bonds that trade rarely (for example, once a day).” But isn’t the corporate bond market highly, highly fragmented? That is, in “appears to be ample,” the stress should be on “appears”?

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 21, Extreme Fear (previous close: 15) [CNN]. One week ago: 24 (Extreem Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Feb 9 at 10:24am

Hong Kong

“Dozens injured as police, protesters clash in Hong Kong” [Asian Correspondent]. “Activists angered over authorities’ attempts to crack down on the food hawkers in a crowded Kowloon neighborhood held running battles with police into the early hours of Tuesday.”

“Hong Kong’s Mong Kok clashes: More than fishballs” [BBC]. “Localist” groups defending food stalls (and with umbrellas).

“Explained: who are Hong Kong Indigenous and what was their role in the Mong Kok protest and riot?” [South China Morning Post]. (The Post is now owned by Mainland squillionaire Jack Ma.)

Dear Old Blighty

After an exchange on British humor, our own Richard Smith sends me this [Financial Times, “How a statue of Satan reduced Lord Jeffrey Archer’s tax bill”].

satan

If this were a Monty Python sketch, a bobby would beating Archer around the head and shoulders with a huge bladder. Or a giant foot would descend from Heaven, stomping him.

“[T]he Corbyn movement has advanced beyond the Left of Benn. It has done so by synthesizing what remains of the traditional labor movement with the new movements of the last twenty years, channelling the mobilizing strengths, and many of the people, associated with twenty-first century “movement” politics through the embedded structures of the country’s traditional left” [Jacobin]. In other words, Corbyn successfully executed a hostile takeover of the Labour Party, in an environment where unions are weak. So we know it can be done.

“Senior Conservatives appear to have flouted electoral law by failing to declare spending amounting to tens of thousands of pounds during three key by-election campaigns, it has been reported” [Independent]. “Channel 4 News said it had obtained hundreds of pages of receipts which suggested the party broke the rules in the 2014 contests in Newark, Clacton and Rochester & Strood. It said it had received legal advice that the evidence would provide reasonable grounds for a police investigation.” Legitimacy crisis? “Some rooms were booked under the name ‘Mr Conservatives.'” [Channel 4].

“Media groups lose right to report on why terror suspect was acquitted over ‘Tony Blair assassination plot'” [Independent]. Why, what did the guy want to do? Drag Blair to the Hague and put him on trial?

Water

“How scientists failed the public in the Flint water crisis” [Los Angeles Times]. Strong column by Hiltzick. “Several threads have become braided together to sap researchers of their spirit of independent inquiry. Although public sources remain significant sources of science funding, their share of total resources has plateaued or declined. That forces researchers increasingly to seek backing from industry, which understandably pursues its own interests, not the public’s. Scientists are discouraged from pursuing nonsexy projects such as double-checking published results, so the all-important process of investigating the reproducibility of previous findings falls by the wayside; the first published results take on an unwarranted aura of authority. Then there’s the politicization of science research.” Agnotology.

Gaia

“In a new paper published in ornithology journal The Condor, a group of US scientists describe how corvids’ unique food-gathering strategies have transformed forests around the world. Now, environmental scientists are actively using the animals as part of their reforestation strategies” [Ars Technica].

“A new paper…. presents an integrative view into the process of mimetic speciation in yet another beautiful taxon, a poison dart frog appropriately named Ranitomeya imitator” [Molecular Ecologist]. With a beautiful chart!

“Man accused of tossing gator into Wendy’s drive-thru window” [WPTV]. I think that’s “Florida Man.”

Imperial Collaps Watch

“Bin Laden Shooter To Release Sex Tape” [Duffel Blog].

News of the Wired

“An end to scaling: Intel’s next-generation chips will sacrifice speed to reduce power” [Extreme Tech]. Hmm. So much for Moore’s Law?

“The French data protection authority on Monday gave Facebook three months to stop tracking non-users’ web activity without their consent and ordered the social network to stop some transfers of personal data to the United States” [Reuters].

“Archie Comic Reveals Jughead Is Asexual” [Vulture].

“Scientists locate the part of the brain where sighs are made ” [Los Angeles Times]. This too, I should perhaps have filed under 2016…

* * *

Readers, feel free to contact me with (a) links, and even better (b) sources I should curate regularly, and (c) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi are deemed to be honorary plants! See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. And here’s today’s plant (pq):

Wenatchee National Forest October 2010

Wenatchee National Forest, October 2010. Luminous, or numinous?

Readers, I’m running out of photos! Wintry scenes would be especially nice! The contact form is above.

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Lambert Strether has been blogging, managing online communities, and doing system administration 24/7 since 2003, in Drupal and WordPress. Besides political economy and the political scene, he blogs about rhetoric, software engineering, permaculture, history, literature, local politics, international travel, food, and fixing stuff around the house. The nom de plume “Lambert Strether” comes from Henry James’s The Ambassadors: “Live all you can. It’s a mistake not to.” You can follow him on Twitter at @lambertstrether. http://www.correntewire.com

145 comments

  1. Carla

    Breaking: WaPo — Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman is a “No” vote on the TPP.

    I tried to provide the link, but my comment got sent to moderation.

    1. nippersdad

      He’s regretting that vote for TPA now that he is being primaried! Hopefully he won’t be the last.

  2. Jim Haygood

    ‘I’m taking comfort in the idea that Clinton has a future after politics …’

    Me too. Here’s a timely preview:

    In her first television interview since being released from federal prison, “Real Housewives of New Jersey” star Teresa Giudice said she experienced horrible living conditions while incarcerated and described it like “living in hell.”

    “I mean there was mold in the bathrooms. There was not running water constantly. The showers were freezing cold … I mean, the living conditions were really horrible. Like, horrible,” she said in an exclusive interview with ABC News’ Amy Robach that aired Tuesday on “Good Morning America.” “There were some nights that we didn’t even have heat … It was — it was hell.”

    Speaking from her New Jersey home, the 43-year-old Giudice talked about her finances, her future and her time in prison –- including working for 12 cents an hour in the kitchen.

    The reality TV star was released from the Federal Correctional Institution-Danbury, a minimum-security prison in Danbury, Connecticut, in December. She had served 11 and a half months of a 15-month sentence there after pleading guilty to multiple offenses that included conspiracy to commit wire fraud and bankruptcy fraud.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/exclusive-real-housewives-star-teresa-giudice-prison-living/story?id=36798513

    The interview ended with a classic Hillary flourish:

    Despite her guilty plea, when asked whether she believed she was breaking the law, Giudice replied, “No.”

    This ain’t no disco
    It ain’t no country club either
    This is L.A.! — Sheryl Crow, “All I Wanna Do”

  3. Jim Haygood

    You know things is bad when the VIX volatility index (which reached an intraday high of 28.31) exceeds the price of crude oil (which reached an intraday low of 27.74).

    Back in the good old days of Summer 2014, VIX was near 10 while crude was at 90. Now we’ve gone through the looking glass into the financial pathology of Yellenland, where everything is turned upside down: crude through the floor; VIX to the skies (and beyond).

    The rate hikes will continue till the senseless sellling stops.

  4. diptherio

    Speaking of Brit humor (our should I say humour?), I was reminded of the Cheese Shop sketch when I saw this on the Reddit Cooperatives page:

    Dairy cooperative issues bonds guaranteed by Parmesan cheese after banks refuse to lend

    Fed up with their banks’ reluctance to lend, an Italian dairy cooperative has raised 6 million euros by issuing bonds guaranteed by huge wheels of Parmesan cheese.

    abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/parmesan-bonds-help-4-madonne-dairy-coop-raise-six-million-euro/7138416

    1. NeqNeq

      If only the late Mr. Wensleydale (or the innocent bouzouki player) had been granted a concealed firearm permit…maybe he could have protected himself from the mentally unstable Cleese. He would have certainly given a nod of approval to these entrepreneurs ‘de fromage.

      More generally: I wish there were more any stories like this in the major US outlets.

    2. craazyboy

      But in the Cheese Shop sketch the cheese shop proprietor never had any cheese. Let’s hope these aren’t empty Parmesan Cheese Default Obligations.

      1. ambrit

        Woe is me! Fraudulent PCDOs would make me Bleu! Especially if I held them past their ‘Sell By Date.’

          1. ambrit

            Watch him if he’s associated with the ill fated Banco Ambrosiano. If so, do check on that papers provoloniance. As the Greek tragedians aver; “We are all hostages to feta.”

    3. ekstase

      Well in case my other comment doesn’t appear, when I think of Monty Python, I like the ladies reenact Pearl Harbor. (And the Satan statue, which apparently may have connections to Rodin’s Thinker, is creepily “sympathetic.”)

    4. Daryl

      IIRC they already put up the cheese as collateral for mortgages, so this just cuts the bank out of the equation nicely.

  5. makedoanmend

    Luminous?
    Numinous?

    Luxurious!

    Look at the life that one venerable tree supports. Visit that tree and see more life on, around and under ground which is supported by the tree’s existenial existence. (And all done without human management or free markets. )

  6. Generalfeldmarschall von Hindenburg

    Re: Albright – There’s a special place in hell for women who have the blood of children on their hands.

    1. sleepy

      Clinton campaigned in 2008 on the notion of inevitability. When that inevitability showed cracks, she failed. She has campaigned in 2016 on the notion of inevitability. Same result.

      In 2016 as in 2008 she has no alternative game plan other than to react with childish insults, as if the thought of having a real challenger was never considered. Must be that famous legend in her own mind at work. Another example of poor judgment.

      1. NotTimothyGeithner

        Inevitability is a nice way to put entitlement. “I’m with Hillary” says the campaign is about Hillary’s personal success. She could have run a unity campaign about electing more Democrats and just ignored a challenger.

      2. Jim Haygood

        Not to mention that her HillaryCare celebrity tour of six Congressional committees in 1993-94 also was premised on inevitability.

        Results: (1) not a single committee reported out a bill; (2) the Democratic party lost its majority in the House for the first time in forty years.

        How many times do we have to watch this boring movie … especially with such dismal casting?

        1. ekstase

          Perhaps we should be grateful for the blind spots. They’re a big part of karma’s delightful unfolding.

  7. petal

    Hi Lambert. In the past week I have received at least 3? Bernie mailers in my 2 boxes, and this morning(~630) when I took the dogs out there was a Bernie door hanger reminding me today was voting day on the front door, so they must’ve been around overnight. I also think there were a couple of guys around the apartment complex canvassing last weekend. A kid in my class this morning (Independent) was going to vote for Sanders right after class ended. I let him know what to expect when he got there as it’s his first time. He was pretty excited-I got the sense he felt really proud for what he was about to do. Another classmate was going to do a FL absentee ballot. They all seemed pretty intent on voting, whether here in NH or in their home state. Lots of enthusiasm this time-you could feel it in the air. Very busy by Hanover high school when I drove by around 10:05a. I plan on voting in West Leb at the famous Kilton Library around 545p. I have multiple forms of ID in my bag-not sure what to expect for that(I think it’s the first time for required ID). Expecting a long line. I will report about the scene when I get home after. I really look forward to filling in that oval-sick of being insulted and held down and it feels like the only way to give them the finger. Cheers.

    1. Jen

      In NH, if you don’t have ID, or decline to provide one, you can fill out an affidavit confirming that you are who you say you are, and they will take your picture. The town clerks were provided with polaroid cameras just for this purpose. Hope they don’t run out of film! Originally the state suggested that the town clerks use their own, which was greeted with a notable lack of enthusiasm by both the voters and the election officials.

    2. petal

      Very brisk at my polling place around 545. No line at all. No exit polling, either. Was surprised how…empty it was. Parking lot was full but on the way there had expected a lot more inside/in line.

      1. sleepy

        I just heard something on the tv about long lines/traffic jams at some NH precincts which are shortly closing and that the Sec. of State’s office was consulting with the Attorney General’s office about some remediation: extending hours or allowing those in line to vote, etc.

        A good turnout benefits Sanders we’re told. Wonder if that consideration will play into any decision.

        1. petal

          Maybe I missed the rush? The Bernie people outside had nice homemade light-up letters that spelled “Bernie”.

  8. lyman alpha blob

    RE: sHillary’s Wall St problem, here’s how Bernie can finish her off and I keep waiting for him to say something like the following:

    “My campaign has accepted millions of dollars in small donations from voters all across the country. They most certainly expect something from me in return and if elected I intend to deliver. I expect the same goes for Clinton and her donors too.”

    Then stick a fork in her.

  9. optimader

    “Bin Laden Shooter To Release Sex Tape” [Duffel Blog].
    Paaartay with Bin Laden?
    I refuse the bait

      1. HotFlash

        I can’t imagine that such an very old pol as Bernie hasn’t included that in the range of possible scenarios. I just hope hes has a deadman switch. I am pretty sure he does. As the Terminator said, “I would.”

          1. Steve H.

            Chuck Colson, Special Counsel to President Richard Nixon, might’ve said that’s not enough. But then he was wacky enough he actually served time.

            (Search: ‘United Airlines Flight 553, Watergate bagman Howard Hunt, wife Dorothy Hunt, thousands in hundred dollar bills.’ Probably won’t work with ‘-“conspiracy theory”‘ tho.)

  10. Carolinian

    Here’s an important article about Pharma as the modern day enclosure of the commons. It says patent protection for medicines was largely unknown until the middle of the 20th century and big pharma has been the driving force behind international intellectual property agreements like the TPP. Just a sampler

    When governments outside the U.S. refused to block generic manufacturing, the pharmaceutical industry argued, they were indulging acts of piracy.

    But there was little in the way of binding international law to back up that position. So the industry pushed directly for the U.S. government to make intellectual property protection a priority in all trade negotiations. Of course, inserting monopoly patent rights into trade agreements runs counter to those agreements’ stated purpose of dismantling barriers to global competition. Yet the pharmaceutical industry, reliably at the top of the list in both lobbying expenditures and political campaign contributions in the United States, quickly found willing partners on Capitol Hill and in the White House. The U.S. soon adopted intellectual property protection as a litmus test for its trade partners.

    The approach was to offer carrots to patent-resistant countries — enhanced access to U.S. markets and some reductions in the subsidies of U.S. agricultural exports — while simultaneously brandishing some imposing sticks. In 1984, aggressive pharmaceutical sector lobbying helped amend the U.S. Trade Act to give the president the authority to impose duties on or withdraw trade benefits from any nation that did not provide “adequate and effective” protection for U.S. intellectual property.

    In short pharma greed and giant profits could be driving our whole trade policy. The below is relevant to much of what gets discussed around here (but not today’s Topic A I’ll admit)

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/02/09/how-corporations-killed-medicine/

    1. Chris in Paris

      Molecules were not covered by patent until the mid 20th century in France, for example. The TRIPS agreement was the real coup that got Pharma the international IP protection they desperately wanted. India was smart enough to get an opt out.

  11. Anon

    Re: Salon

    This guy gets it. In spite of everyone saying “don’t be worried about the firewall”, I just can’t help but to be. The better question is how does the S.S. Clinton spin this decisive loss after the (exceedingly) narrow victory in IA?

    1. Jen

      Neighboring state defense. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-TPP) was spouting that one on Here and Now yesterday, in addition to blathering on about how strong Clinton was because she testified for 11 hours straight at the Benghazi hearings, and how “we need to correct the record.” Nice shout out there, Jeanne, and if there is one vote I wish I could take back, it’s the one I cast for you last fall.

  12. nippersdad

    Re Brock’s hair: I cannot see the guy without thinking of Cameron Diaz in Something About Mary. :)

  13. Rex

    – journal The Condor, a group of US scientists describe how corvids’ …

    Animals and plants are much ‘smarter’ than we give them credit for, it’s in their DNA.

  14. DJG

    Antidote: Trees. Numinous. Trees have numen. In my rather irreligious religion, they are among the few divinities left.

    1. DJG

      Corvid article: Also an excellent summary of their many excellent qualities (hard working, thrifty, canny, uncanny, practical). You can see what human beings once believed that birds are messengers of the gods. Now to return to that (proper) belief.

    2. HopeLB

      I too am one of this religion’s adherents. Years ago (2005? 2008?) when I still read DailyKos , there was a post containing Bible quotes about Trees. Though there are other sites with Tree focused Bible quotes, this one post contained the most forceful Tree worshipping quotes I have ever found. In one, God directs man to fell a man before he fells a tree.

  15. Blink 180

    From yesterday’s water cooler:

    [BILL CLINTON:] “I understand why we’ve got a race on our hands, because a lot of people are disillusioned with the system and a lot of young people want to take it down. … I understand what it’s like for people who haven’t had a raise in eight years. There are a lot of reasons [to be angry]. But this is not a cartoon. This is real life.”

    Don’t rag on cartoons, Bill. Many are more worth paying attention to than you are. I recommend the following:

    Galaxy Express 999

    A wonderfully grim satire of neoliberalism, globalization, and Kurzweil-ian narcissistic techno-utopianism.

    The Roses of Versailles

    A somewhat campy (okay, VERY campy) take on the French Revolution, it quite effectively depicts the way hopelessness and inequality corrode away the moral fabric of human relations.

    Both can easily be streamed online with English subtitles.

    1. Uahsenaa

      As someone who studies comics professionally, I have to say that most cartoonists have a better grip on reality than the politicians I have met over the years.

      Bloom County alone is genius, and that’s not counting every other politically oriented strip that’s existed over the years.

      1. ekstase

        They used to say that Hitchcock was, “damned with faint praise,” by being called a master of horror. I think the same thing tends to happen to those who are funny. I think it was Mike Nichols who said, “Funny is very rare.” And I would add, very valuable, and slightly deadly.

  16. Chauncey Gardiner

    RE speculation on Malaysia’s agreement to participate in the TPP and the original source of the $US681 million deposit to Najib’s personal AmBank account:

    “Follow the money” back through intermediaries. If ultimately from US entities, then I believe the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act could apply. “Plausible deniability”?

  17. Massinissa

    Ive actually been reading the new Archie reboot series myself. Great reboot, much better stuff than the old stuff IMO, which got sort of stale after 80 years. Great new fresh and modern take on an old classic of comics.

    1. Llewelyn Moss

      Nice resource. Thanks for posting.
      Way to early to imply any pattern, but Bernie is crushing in the early reporting counties. Bern, Baby Bern.

    2. Doug

      The vote count is currently 62% for Bernie and 32% for Hilary, yet she has scored 6 delegates vs. zero for him. What am I missing (besides a functioning brain)?

        1. MyLessThanPrimeBeef

          It’s not as bad as the United Nations.

          5 guys can veto anything.

          And no popular vote. You can reproduce all you want to add to your billion plus population, but you get one vote, as same as Andorra (I think).

        2. Llewelyn Moss

          Yeah but Super Delegates only exist in case commoner voters come up with the wrong answer. Hahaha. Pathetic. I will write in Bernie regardless of how the Dems ‘fix’ the selection.

          1. flora

            Super Delegates: part of the modern Dem machine. Carter was the first nominee and pres under the super delegate system. (Started 1972 after the McGovern nomination, i.e ‘wrong’ answer.) Carter was also the start of Dem presidents who de-regulate business. Super Delegates act as supporters of the status quo, making the party less responsive to voters.

            1. jrs

              Notice the Republicans don’t have super delegates. Which party is really more democratic? It’s a ratchet, there’s a check on how far populist left movements go in this country, but maybe not populist right ones.

              1. Darthbobber

                The Republicans have some superdelegates, but much more limited than the Democrats. Individual states can have their state PARTY functionaries slotted as superdelegates. Some do. Some don’t. But there’s no national setup mandating this, nor does it extend to their govs and congresscritters. At the Republican convention, superdelegates will account for roughly 5% of votes, as compared to nearly 20% at the Democratic(sic) convention.

        3. Thoughtful person

          Now with 76.7 % of the votes in, err popular votes that is, Sanders is up by 21%, 59.5 to 38.8, a landslide victory. Delegate count now reads Clinton 15 to Sanders 13. I know 6 super delegates went to Clinton (but could possibly change), however still does not add up imo. Do super delegates vote in the first round of convention voting? Seen any general election polls Clinton v Sanders v Bush v Bloomberg?

          1. 3.14e-9

            Evidently New Hampshire has eight super delegates. I found an AP story from Nov. 13 that said six were already pledged to Clinton, one was forbidden from pledging in the primary, and one was remaining undecided until after the primary. So she might have picked up that one, but still that doesn’t account for an increase of two. I was thinking that maybe she picked up a couple extra in the bigger precincts, where Sanders won by a smaller margin. But that still doesn’t make sense. It will interesting to see what happens if the popular vote is 60-40 percent, and Hillary still walks away with more delegates. Will there be a rebellion in the “Live Free or Die State?”

            1. thoughtful person

              89% reporting. Clinton 15, Sanders 13… 4 delegates still to be determined.

              So much for the popular vote in NH anyway. Guess all those Clinton supporters are right about electability after all.

      1. MyLessThanPrimeBeef

        Hard to predict if it’s another miracle day for Saint Hillary.

        We will know by sundown, I hope.

        1. ambrit

          Well, as for the miraculous, at 11:30 EST, with 77% of the total in, Sanders leads Clinton 59% to 39%, but Hillary has 15 delegates to Bernies 13.
          As the boys at the track say; “The Fix is in.”

    3. Jen

      So far the partially reported totals are from the hinterlands, which is the only possible explanation I can offer for whoever the hell Greenstein is with 7% of the vote.

      Also wrt phone banking/push polling in NH: those of us who live here know this is why caller ID was invented, and act accordingly.

    4. craazyboy

      It’s official! Bernie wins w/ 60% because Hillary conceded w/ 60% of the votes counted.

      Trump stomps all on the R side.

      What ever happened to our little conservative New Hampshire?

      1. Skippy

        Duh…. the crazymac’hitlerpants part of all of this is Bernie would be considered a centrist republican 50 years ago…

        1. LifelongLib

          Yup, Nixon proposed a national health care system and a guaranteed annual income — go figure…

        2. ambrit

          Put him on the ballot in most First World countries today and Bernie would still be considered a ‘Centrist Republican.’
          I see America today as a subduction zone that is reaching the breaking point. No matter what, something is going to give. As to how everything is rebuilt afterwards is up to us. That’s going to be the real struggle.

  18. ekstase

    Re: the gator-throwing Florida man:

    “judge ordered James to stay out of all Wendy’s restaurants, to avoid contact or possession with any animals other than his mother’s dog”

    A couple of possible loopholes here?

    1. flora

      adding:
      The Dems came up with the idea of super delegates after the McGovern nomination in 1972. The idea was to keep the party bosses in control of the nominating process. Studebaker talks about Carter. Carter was the first Dem nominee under the super delegate system.
      The GOP does not have super delegates to their convention.

      1. Darthbobber

        Few remember, but Carter’s introduction to the national stage came when he was selected to give the speech placing Scoop Jackson’s name in nomination as the representative of the Anybody But McGovern coalition at the ’72 convention.

  19. Theo

    The citation on corvids is so true, they are truly amazing. In an earlier post on what species might succeeded human beings on earth, I suggested the evolutionary descendants of meerkats. As soon as I closed the comment, I realized I should have selected the corvids. Glad to see the citation. If birds such as the corvids can survive the destruction of the dinosaurs perhaps they have a chance to succeed us.

  20. Lisa

    What if Sanders really won Iowa in a landslide? The CW seems to be he might have won popular vote in a squeaker and barely lost delegate count. But I tumbled onto another thought when I saw CNN’s NH vote counts earlier today that had HRC at 6 delegates and Sanders at Zero delegates. Of course, Super Delegates count before the rest of us even vote. What if Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa by c. 10%, but lost the delegate count because TPTB (super delegates) favor HRC en masse? How would that play in the narrative going forward?

  21. DakotabornKansan

    Turning water into money

    “If Nestlé and myself have become very vocal in the area of water, it was not because of any philanthropic idea, it was very simple: by analyzing what is the single most important factor for the sustainability of Nestlé, water came as the number one subject. Water is the new gold, and a few savvy countries and companies are already banking on it.” – Peter Brabeck, Nestlé CEO”

    Sustainability of Nestlé’s access to and market control over water resources; i.e., privatization and monopolization of the world’s water supply.

    Hedge fund investors are prospecting for gold in California, “A Free-Market Plan to Save the American West From Drought,”

    “…hedge-fund manager who had flown in from New York City the previous night. And as he appraised the property, he was less interested in its crop or cattle potential than in a different source of wealth: the water running through its streams and coursing beneath its surface. This tract would come with the rights to large amounts of water from the region’s only major river, the Humboldt.”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/03/a-plan-to-save-the-american-west-from-drought/426846/

    The expanding debacle of America’s water crisis.

    Bolivia’s Cochabamba Water War should be a major reference point and provide valuable lessons for the upcoming water wars.

    1. MyLessThanPrimeBeef

      Makes a nice fiction – the Last Days of Mars, Before Water Disappeared to the Poles.

    2. cyclist

      “…hedge-fund manager who had flown in from New York City the previous night…..”
      Where are those right wing gun-crazed yahoos when you need them?

    1. MyLessThanPrimeBeef

      The ace up Bernie’s sleeve is MMT.

      Right now, it has not been unveiled yet.

      The surprise, though, is that it will likely be co-opted (how many times has that happened in human history) by you know who into a version called MMMT (MilitaryMMT) – unrestrained drone and regime change spending.

      And let’s speak no more of the empire on the downside.

      1. JohnnyGL

        You talk about this like the political class don’t already know it on some level. Remember Cheney and his “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter” quote? The bad guys already know!

  22. barrisj

    FWIW, an Emerson College poll released today re: NH has my man Jeb! in second place, bunched together w/ Kasich, at the expense of empty-suit Rubio…I’ve always maintained that Jeb! has the commited dollars/SuperPAC to go the distance, and should he rise as Lazarus to even a close-3rd placing, that will give him and the hand-wringing “establishment” grandees the green light to pour on resources in Nevada and SC to keep the “momentum” going. It’s the long game here, people, no matter what Barb has to say about her Jeb!-bie.

    1. craazyboy

      Bern money, bern! Between Jeb! and Hillary!, watching rich people burn money could turn into a really fun spectator sport.

      1. MyLessThanPrimeBeef

        They stimulate the economy in their own special ways.

        Strictly speaking, economy-wise, when you buy an election, you are contributing to the GDP.

  23. dk

    And Clinton’s not dumb; she could have tried just the same strategy. Why didn’t she?

    Because of her consultants.

    Think of it as a jobs program. Fundraising consultants are important assets throughout the life of a campaign (including the period after the election).

    The fundraisers get a cut of funds they raise (10%-20% is common, I’ve seen higher… even ActBlue asks for a tip, but they ask and don’t require it, and it doesn’t come out of your donation, it’s on top). This is an industry, which also has vendors (NGP / VAN and other political data platforms have fundraising modules, before merging with VAN, NGP was a stand-alone campaign accounting, compliance, and fundraising tool).

    And in case there is any lingering confusion or doubt in anyone’s mind; the campaign fundraising context is a major conduit for “constituent” input on policy. When candidates say “I’ve heard from/spoken with my constituents”, unless they just did a townhall meeting, they are talking about conversations at fundraising events. The candidates feel that they are actually connecting with their constituents… and they are, just not with all of them. Naturally, business owners and affluent blowhards are well-represented.

    Which means that backing out of the existing fundraising mechanisms would be wrenching for campaign and candidate alike, on several levels. It would also be considered an overt act of disloyalty; and loyalty is the coin of the realm.

    Political consultants by and large, and especially in the establishment tier, operate and strategize on the sole core premise that voters are a) stupid (in the Pavlovian sense), and b) unreliable. The idea that small donors would be reliable over the course of a campaign is inconceivable (the larger donors certainly aren’t that reliable). And if you’re willing to flip messages in a heartbeat, it is probably not a safe bet; Sanders is pulling it off in part (so far?) through his own massive (so far…) consistency (and legacy). Also, he’s positioned so far from anybody else (except maybe Trump?!?) that it’s difficult to slipstream him and steal his donor base. I think that some basic economic/market concepts (commitment bias, sunk costs) can be considered as well. But the establishment consultants (who generally do quite well, thank you) don’t see a $20 donation as a significant commitment with an expectation attached; it’s a restaurant tip. BTW, Sanders’ three million donations come from over one million donors, that’s a rough average of two follow-up donations. Some of these folks are living hand-to-mouth; they’re almost literally all in, unlike any millionaire or billionaire who maxes out and gives the rest to PACs.

    1. optimader

      And Clinton’s not dumb;
      not dumb? mmm, Ok, is she smart?
      Personally, I don’t think so.

      Conniving and persistent? absolutely.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        Clinton is not dumb. She is affirmatively smart. What Clinton lacks is imagination. If she were still driving Scooby Doo round the country and storming small venues she’d be a populist today. So she drove out to Iowa in the van… And flew back. And that was that!

        1. Lee

          I don’t know. Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC thinks it was pretty dumb for HRC to think it was okay to make those big money speeches AND plan on running again for political office. Particularly since “she didn’t even need the money.”

          Pols must be pulling their hair out at the thought that their donor lists could become a litmus test for their fitness for office.

          1. Lambert Strether Post author

            Takes imagination to get out of the DLC box.

            I remember an Elmore Leonard story where the (anti-) hero tells a parable about freeing dolphins from their cages — and they swam right back in. That’s the Democratic establishment in a nutshell. Sanders shows them the way out, they, er, “cling to” the money-raising strategy they have.

    2. Darthbobber

      Haig, Joffre and Ludendorff weren’t “dumb”, precisely, but that didn’t keep them from repeatedly believing in the likely success of foredoomed plans.

  24. Jim Haygood

    Dear old Dick Morris — the Clintons’ former triangulation guru — is back. And he’s wielding a sharp rapier:

    Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign is falling apart. Bernie Sanders soared in New Hampshire and now two polls have him tying her nationally. It’s a disaster.

    Now she’s called in the B Team — the cynical, paranoid and wacky twins Sidney Blumenthal and David Brock — to bail her out. And here comes the elderly, diminished and livid former President Bill Clinton to lead the duo’s frantic attacks on Sanders.

    The attacks are rooted in nothing more than a list of dirty names they call the Vermont senator every day. Having found little in his record to attack, they have consulted the thesaurus to turn up ugly sounding accusations.

    Their strategy is laughable. After losing 84 percent of young voters in Iowa — and failing to recover them in New Hampshire — they sent in two aging fossils of feminism to insult and threaten young women.

    The 81-year-old feminist Gloria Steinem charged that young women are only backing Sanders because that’s where they can meet boys. And 78-year-old Madeleine Albright threatened to consign to a “special place in hell” women who don’t back female candidates like Clinton.

    Those are two great ways to attract young voters.

    http://thehill.com/opinion/dick-morris/268831-dick-morris-clinton-deploys-b-team

    At least Dick cautiously refrained from labeling the candidate herself an ‘aging fossil of feminism,’ an offense which could get him Arkancided.

    1. MyLessThanPrimeBeef

      “Where are my young voters today, where have they gone – those who catapulted my husband in the 1990’s and Obama in 2008 into the White House?”

    2. Skippy

      Waves at Jim….

      Basically the republican party has become an insane asylum after years of politicizing religion in the name of fighting the cold war, Raygun blow back, tho he did keep a leash on the neocons until the Zionists deployed Pat Robinson. Bush Sr was fairly pragmatic albeit entrenched in the security apparatus and its legacy over shoot, till Bush Jr late stage alcoholic tendencies and handlers tender machinations put a nice head on that beer…

      On the other side of the coin you have the blue dog corporatist – wall st. democrats which are just as corrupt tho have differences of opinion about some ID “socio”political outcomes, as a result of harnessing other fears as a voter preference.

      Skippy… so whats your point again… comrade…

    1. Jim Haygood

      Triangulate this:

      In 2013, for example, Sanders made all of $1,500, which he donated to charity as required by federal law. In 2014, he raked in $1,850 for paid speeches. By contrast, Clinton made, and kept, over $21 million during the same time period.

      Sanders was only reimbursed for coach class airfare, while Clinton demanded private jets.

      Sanders’s hosts were the TV show “Real Time with Bill Maher,” Avalon Publishing and a machinists union. Clinton’s were Goldman Sachs, the big banks and the pharmaceutical and energy industries.

      Facts are cruel things, in the wrong hands. And the fickle public no longer remembers the Clintons leaving the White House penniless, in their Democratic cloth coats.

      *wipes nostalgic tear from eye*

  25. JustAnObserver

    Re: An end to scaling: Intel’s next-generation chips will sacrifice speed to reduce power

    The famous Moore’s law actually stated that the number of logic gates on a chip would double every 18 months. This is still, largely, happening as the process geometries go down

    40nm->28nm->20nm->14nm->Who knows ?

    Since the increase in capacity was due to the shrinking transistor size it had, for a long time, the beneficial the side effect of increasing the possible clock speeds. This side effect has become less useful since about the 40nm silicon generation since, roughly speaking, static power has come to dominate the current consumption i.e. the power used even when the clock is taken down to 0. And this problem has been getting worse as the processes continue to shrink.

    Something has to give and that thing is dynamic power component that comes from switching all those transistors on & off.

  26. giantsquid

    Apparently, a lot of women in New Hampshire will be going to hell over the next few decades (H/T Madeleine Albright). NBC exit poll has Sanders capturing majority of New Hampshire primary women’s vote 53/46.

  27. allan

    Voter ID Laws Dampen Turnout For Minorities And Liberals

    Researchers at UC-San Diego are working on a study on how voter ID laws affect turnout rates, and a working paper they released detailing the results thus far seems to confirm what the laws’ critics have often said.

    Voter ID laws adversely affected the turnout of minorities, and particularly that of Latinos, the paper found. The study also revealed that turnout among Democrats was disproportionately affected, backing up claims of a political motivation behind the laws, which have been overwhelmingly championed by GOP legislators.

    Whether it’s Clinton or Sanders in the fall, s/he will have this to overcome.

    1. MyLessThanPrimeBeef

      In the real election, the one the winner has to fulfill promised made to very rich donors, the voters in that election have to show identification to prove they are rich enough to vote.

      If you don’t have money, you can’t vote in that election.

  28. Cry Shop

    This is the Madeleine Albright of such quips and sophistry as “Disgusting Serbs! ” and 500000 dead Iraqi Children was “worth it”?

    I’d expect her to be pimping to be Trump’s (or Ted “Crude”‘s) Sec. of State, but then again if not in verbiage but promised and deeded acts, Clinton isn’t all that different between these two, and Clinton pays her minions better than those two.

    1. MyLessThanPrimeBeef

      There is a theory that goes all Republicans are inherently bad, and all Democrats are easily deceived, born credulous, looking at the all-star rosters of Democrat leaders from the last 24 years.

      And while you can predict the future based on the past, what’s past is prologue.

      1. ambrit

        As Frankie Howerds’ character Lurkio from “Up Pompeii” would say; “And now for the Prologue…”

  29. LifelongLib

    There was a Jughead comic years ago where he actually starts liking girls, but doesn’t know how to attract any. Archie asks “You mean you’ve finally flipped?” . Jughead replies “Yeah, I’ve flipped and I’ve flopped.”

  30. Darthbobber

    So-I’m looking at 80% of the vote in in NH, and the margin is sitting at Sanders +22. Assuming this holds up, and its been staying in the 20-22% range all the way from 50% to 80%, a few preliminary conclusions.
    1)Recent polling had the margin in a range between Sanders +9 to Sanders +16, so undecideds apparently went pretty hard for Sanders.

    2) The Clinton 2- track tactics (simultaneously blur differences and attack hard) not only did not work in this case, but seem to have done the opposite of working. Important in that all signs of their plans going forward so far point to doing the same thing but louder. (Though they MAY possibly have the sense to get back to attacking the opponent rather than the opponent’s voters.)

    3) The CNN exit polling showed Sanders winning across all demographics in the NH electorate. Even the over 40 women breaking slightly for Sanders. He won across all income categories and across all education levels.

    4) Hard for Team Clinton to spin a lot of positives out of this. They’re probably down to trying to discount it because of its border with Vermont, though I doubt if they’d be willing to discount a Clinton win in any state bordering New York or Arkansas.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      What I’m reading is:

      1) The only demographic Clinton won is > $200K. Ouch.

      2) Young women apparently chose their special place in hell, by overwhelming margins.

      3) In exit polling, liberals of all shades, including “moderate,” preferred Sanders. Also, on the “Who is more trustworthy?” question, Sanders gets 91% (!).

      4) “Minority” votes (granted, not many in absolute terms in NH) 49% for Sanders

      5) Clinton lost everywhere, including Manchester and the southeast, which one would have expected the Democratic establishment to be able to hold. Clinton also lost Concord, the state capital, i.e. state workers, interestingly.

      6) Anecdotal reports that the donation page on the Sanders website crashed.

      I do try to avoid triumphalism, and it’s early days yet, but I’m starting to think this Sanders thing might not be a flash in the pan.

      (Sorry no links, but I’ve got to rush on to something else.)

    2. NotTimothyGeithner

      To me your 4th point is a demonstration of how out of touch Team Blue is. Hillary isn’t a wheeling and dealing Senator most people ignore. In this race, she is basically a sitting President. The border state excuse amounts to admitting that Sanders is far more appealing when people know who he is.

  31. Darthbobber

    Old 2014 Politifact rundown on Billary’s being “dead broke” on leaving the White House.
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/jun/10/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-says-she-and-bill-were-dead-broke/

    “While one can claim to be technically broke, creditors wouldn’t take it as such as long as future income streams could cover the liabilities,” Mittendorf said.

    “In December 2000, at least one large bank saw the Clintons through that lens. Whatever their balance sheet might have been, Citibank lent them $1.995 million to buy that house in Washington, D.C. This was a safe loan. By Feb. 5, 2001, Bill Clinton was commanding regular speaking fees of $125,000 or more.”

    “Hillary Clinton herself did quite well in 2001. The book publisher Simon and Schuster paid her $2.84 million in royalties.”

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      C’mon, let’s be fair. They were dead broke, but only because they hadn’t cashed in. The bank loans reflect this. “The self-serving use of public power for private ends.” The power of the Presidency doesn’t flip off, like a light switch, after the term of office ends.

      1. Cry Shop

        Dead broke? if so, then it was only an accounting trick for tax purposes. 8 years no rent and all legitimate expenses paid and the $200,000 pension, free medical, etc on retirement. I doubt even Chelsey’s school fees at the exclusive Sidwell Friends School were charged out at full rate, so as far as Bill was concerned it was as if he was sending Chelsey to the public school system for which he was suppose the final executive in charge.

        Like many pathological liars, Hillary gets her time lines all messed up. She and Bill probably were close to broke when Bill was Arkansas AG, as they had that Harvard Law School lifestyle to pay off, but she carried that internal excuse through every bit of soul selling she’s done ever since.

  32. barrisj

    Let’s have some love for my man Jeb!, who just might nose out Cruz for a 3rd-place finish, ahead of Rubio, please note…and, DOUBLE DIGITS, no less. Kasich, a one-state wonder, will get funding for the next two primaries, but done after that..Rubio clearly found wanting, the Goodyear Blimp really gored him in the pre-election debate…the equivalent of the sainted Raygun and his, “…there you go again…”, Marco’s toast. So, Lazarus has indeed risen, and all who begged my man Jeb! to pack it in (that’s you, Charles Pierce)? Sorry, but
    my man Jeb! has got his second wind, and…he back!

  33. Darthbobber

    On the Republican side, the decent Kasich performance and the Rubio fiasco will probably delay the GOP side of the establishment’s ability to attempt coalescing around a single annointed saviour, and will probably extend Trump’s ability to do broken ground running against fragmented opposition well past Super Tuesday.

    They have at best a choice of broken reeds to lean on, and we have scripture on how well that works.

  34. ahimsa

    Looks to me like Hillary actually got less raw votes than in 2008!

    Currently 89% reporting: BS 138,716; HRC 88,827; projected total ~256,000?
    In 2008: HRC 112,404 from total 287,542

    Also looks like the turnout is down ~10% from 2008.

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