Category Archives: Infrastructure

IMF Warns That Inequality, Poverty, Low Productivity Growth, Falling Workforce Participation Will Drag on US Growth

The IMF has become an unlikely reporter of unpleasant realities about the US economy, particularly the costs of inequality and distress. If only its prescriptions were better….

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Cyber Risk as Systemic Risk

The threat to the financial system posed by cyber risk is often claimed to be systemic. This column argues against this, pointing out that almost all cyber risk is microprudential. For a cyber attack to lead to a systemic crisis, it would need to be timed impeccably to coincide with other non-cyber events that undermine confidence in the financial system and the authorities. The only actors with enough resources to affect such an event are large sovereign states, and they could likely create the required uncertainty through simpler, financial means.

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Artificial Intelligence and Employment

The substitution of human labour by artificial intelligence and robots is a keenly debated topic. Some claim that a substantial share of jobs is at risk, while others argue that computers and robots will lead to product innovations and hence to unimaginable new occupations. This column uses a survey of Japanese firms to examine the impact of AI-related technologies on business and employment. Overall, firms expect a positive impact on business but a negative impact on employment. Firms with a highly skilled workforce, however, have a more optimistic view than firms with lower skilled employees.

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James Galbraith Describes Major Forecast Failure in Model Used by Romers to Attack Friedman on Sanders Plan

James Galbraith examines the used forecast by Christine Romer and David Romer to attack Gerald Friedman’s favorable review of Sanders’ plan. He’d already shellacked the methodology in a 2014 book.

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