Yves here. The idea of Russia releasing Clinton e-mails obtained by hacking into her server, whether directly or through proxies, would be a very aggressive move if it could be attributed to them (as opposed to a non-state actor). It amounts to a foreign power interfering in US elections (not that we don’t do that, witness Obama telling British citizens why they should vote for Remain). The Wikipedia listing on the think tank that published this story is thin, but the organization does appear to have been around for a long time.
Russia would not have gone public with this threat (notice the article describes it as “messaging”) unless it preferred the US to handle l’affaire Clinton through conventional channels. But with Obama having endorsed Clinton, he has now committed himself to not indicting Clinton, and probably not indicting any of her aides (certainly not key ones like Abedin). So we will see in due course if Russia follows through on its saber-rattling.
Given its history, Wikileaks would seem to be the logical outlet, and Assange has recently said more Clinton e-mails are coming. If the leaks are made and are as damaging as you would expect, the Republicans would go nuts. If Clinton is somehow elected despite that, she would be an incredibly weak President. The Republicans almost certainly will retain control of the House and having the real dirt on what was on her server and what foreign governments almost certainly saw means they would be looking for any thin grounds for impeaching her.
By Defense and Foreign Affairs, a geopolitical news publication offered by the International Strategic Studies Association. Cross posted from OilPrice
Reliable intelligence sources in the West have indicated that warnings had been received that the Russian Government could in the near future release the text of email messages intercepted from U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s private e-mail server from the time she was U.S. Secretary of State. The release would, the messaging indicated, prove that Secretary Clinton had, in fact, laid open U.S. secrets to foreign interception by putting highly-classified Government reports onto a private server in violation of U.S. law, and that, as suspected, the server had been targeted and hacked by foreign intelligence services.
The reports indicated that the decision as to whether to reveal the intercepts would be made by Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, and it was possible that the release would, if made, be through a third party, such as Wikileaks. The apparent message from Moscow, through the intelligence community, seemed to indicate frustration with the pace of the official U.S. Department of Justice investigation into the so-called server scandal, which seemed to offer prima facie evidence that U.S. law had been violated by Mrs Clinton’s decision to use a private server through which to conduct official and often highly-secret communications during her time as Secretary of State. U.S. sources indicated that the extensive Deptartment of Justice probe was more focused on the possibility that the private server was used to protect messaging in which Secretary Clinton allegedly discussed quid pro quo transactions with private donors to the Clinton Foundation in exchange for influence on U.S. policy.
The Russian possession of the intercepts, however, was designed also to show that, apart from violating U.S. law in the fundamental handling of classified documents (which Sec. Clinton had alleged was no worse than the mishandling of a few documents by CIA Director David Petraeus or Clinton’s National Security Advisor Sandy Berger), the traffic included highly-classified materials which had their classification headers stripped. Russian (and other) sources had indicated frustration with the pace of the Justice Dept. probe, and its avoidance of the national security aspects of intelligence handling. This meant that the topic would be suppressed by the U.S. Barack Obama Administration so that it would not be a factor in the current U.S. Presidential election campaign, in which President Obama had endorsed Mrs Clinton.
Moscow’s discreet messaging about a possible leak of the traffic, in time to impact the U.S. elections, was designed to pressure faster U.S. legal action on the matter, but was largely due to Russian concerns about possible U.S. strategic policy in the event of a Hillary Clinton presidency.
Apart from the breach of U.S. Federal law in the handling of classified material, the Clinton private server was, according to GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs analysts, always likely to have been a primary target for foreign cyber warfare interception operations, particularly those of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and North Korea (DPRK), but probably also by others, including Iran.