Exit Polls Show Voters Rejecting May’s Mean-Spirited Message, Tories to Lose Majority (Updated)

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YouGov’s polling appears to have been proven correct again. It was the only poll to suggest consistently that the Tories would lose their majority. While YouGov predicted a more dramatic result than the exit polls now suggest, a loss for the Tories would be a reversal no pundits anticipated, and is sure to bring the knives out with the Tory party, which heretofore was presumed to continue leading in an unstable minority party. The assumption was that that in turn would produce dynamics that would force new elections in two years or less. But Brexit complicates these already fraught dynamics.

YouGov’s last poll was that the Tories would capture only 302 seats, versus the other forecast pointing to 350 seats or more. The exit polls now forecast the Tories at 314 seats. The Financial Times points out that in recent years, the 10:00 PM exit polls have pegged the majority party’s seat count pretty well, with the biggest error at 15 seats:

Per the Telegraph, most final results should start coming in at 3AM with the picture pretty well firmed up by 5AM.

The Guardian’s live blog show that a seat reporting a final count after the exit polls went from Conservative to Labour, the opposite of what the exit polls forecasted:

Fuller results from Houghton and Sunderland South paint a more complex picture.

Labour’s Bridget Phillipson held the seat with 24,665 votes; that’s 59.6%, up 4.4 points on last time.

Paul Howell for the Conservatives came second on 12,324 – up 11 points on 2015 and benefiting from Ukip falling 16 points. Its candidate, Michael Joyce, came third with 2,379 votes.

Fourth was the Lib Dem Paul Edgeworth on 908. The Green Richard Bradley on 725 was fifth; the independent Mick Watson got 479.

Turnout was 61%.

But the result is a 3.5% swing Labour to Conservative – the opposite to what the exit poll predicted.

I just saw Sunderland on Telegraph live blog go for Labour by roughly 22,000 votes for 15,000 for the Tories. Even in an nearly empty school sports hall, it’s dramatic to see the results read out live with the candidates all standing there.

This was in the north of England, which as we posted earlier this week, the pundits were confidently seeing as going for the Tories.

From the Financial Times, Exit polls point to disaster for Theresa May as voters punish Tories:

Theresa May’s gamble on a snap election appeared to have dramatically backfired on Thursday night, after exit polls showed her quest for a “stronger mandate” to deliver Brexit had been rejected by voters, leaving her future as prime minister in doubt.

A BBC exit poll released as polls closed at 10pm suggested the Tories were expected to be the biggest party but would fall 12 short of an overall majority; it would probably leave the Tories trying to form a minority government.

The initial projection gave Mrs May’s Conservatives 314 seats, Labour 266, SNP 34 and Liberal Democrats 14. In the outgoing parliament, the Tories had 331 seats; a governing party needs 326 out of 650 seats for a majority…

The prime minister’s campaign had been criticised as lacklustre but her relentless focus on Brexit and appeal to ordinary working families looked set to deliver big Tory victories across Labour’s heartland.

But early signs were that the Conservative advance into Labour seats in the midlands and north had been thwarted, following a spirited campaign from Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, who appeared to have boosted his party’s seat haul from 232 in 2015.

The Telegraph has pulled out the fainting couch: Exit polls point to shock hung Parliament. From its FAQ on a hung parliament:

What is a hung parliament?
When no party has won enough seats to have a majority in the House of Commons. With 650 seats in the House of Commons, a government needs the support of 326 MPs to have a working majority. Since Sinn Féin don’t take their seats and abstain from voting in Parliament, the practical threshold for a Westminster majority drops to 323.

If no one gets a majority, who will be prime minister on Friday 9 June?
Theresa May. In a hung parliament, the incumbent prime minister stays in office until it is decided who will attempt to form a new government.

How is that decided?
According to the Cabinet Manual, the closest thing Britain has to a rulebook here, the incumbent PM is entitled to attempt to form a government then stay in office until Parliament meets, when she can ask MPs to approve her Queen’s Speech.

Does a hung parliament mean a coalition government?
Not necessarily. A new prime minister could seek a confidence-and-supply deal with smaller allies. There’s also the option of a minority coalition, where the governing party makes a formal agreement with a smaller party but together they still don’t have a majority, meaning they have to seek support in the Commons for every vote.

Finally, a party that lacks a majority could simply try to go it alone and govern as a minority government, vulnerable to being voted down at any time.

From the Wall Street Journal:

If the polls are correct, then this throws all Brexit assumptions into the air. The Conservatives were expected to be given a clear mandate to push for a clean break with the European Union leaving the European single market and ending freedom of movement.

Now, who knows? Labour in its manifesto said it accepted the result of the Brexit vote but would instead prioritise “retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union.” How much would Theresa May’s “Brexit means Brexit” have to be watered down would be a major question.

The immediate concern would be how negotiations, which are due to start less than two weeks from today, could be impacted as the Brits work out who is in charge.

From the Guardian:

On ITV George Osborne, the former Conservative chancellor, said Theresa May could have to resign if the exit poll was accurate. (See 10.02pm for an assessment of whether it is.) He said:

I worked very well with Theresa May and I think she has intelligence and integrity.

Clearly if she’s got a worse result than two years ago and is almost unable to form a government then she I doubt will survive in the long term as Conservative party leader..

So I look at those numbers, I helped put together the Coalition in 2010 and you could make the numbers quite easily add up if you could get the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives to come together. I look at these numbers, you can’t make them add up.

UKIP is Not Happy. From leader Paul Nuttal:

Update 10:30 PM: Corbyn has called on May to resign; May has said she’s not going. From two entries in the Guardian live blog:

After winning his seat by a vast margin, Jeremy Corbyn said Theresa May should step down. He said: “The prime minister called the election because she wanted a mandate. Well the mandate she’s got is lost Conservative seats, lost votes, lost support and lost confidence. I would have thought that is enough for her to go actually.”

He added:

This election was called for the prime minister to gain a larger majority in order to assert her authority. The election campaign has gone on for the past six weeks – I’ve travelled the whole country. I’ve spoken at events and rallies all over the country.

And you know what? Politics has changed. Politics isn’t going back into the box where it was before. What’s happened is, people have said they’ve had quite enough of austerity politics, they’ve had quite enough of cuts in public expenditure, under-funding our health service, under-funding our schools, our education service, and not giving our young people the chance they deserve in our society.

* * *

Theresa May is speaking now at the count in Maidenhead where she has just been re-elected.

She thanks the returning officer and her staff. And she thanks the police. And she thanks those who have supported her.

It is a huge honour being MP here, she says.

Looking more widely, returns are still coming in, she says.

But she says this country needs a period of stability.

If the Conservative party has won the most seats and most votes, it will be incumbent on it to ensure that stability.

She says she set out her priorities: getting the Brexit deal right, doing what is best for the country.

She says he resolve is the same as before.

The country needs a period of stability, she says.

And that’s it.

Um, a hung Parliament is the antithesis of stability. She may ben hanging on to the hope that the Tories squeak a majority. The BBC revises its forecast at 2:30 AM for a Conservative result of 322 seats, one shy of a majority, based on stronger-than-expected results in Scotland.

Update 11:15 PM: The Torygraph is not betting on May lasting long:

Senior Conservatives said this morning that she had made “fundamental strategic errors” and said that her closest aides should be “banished” from Downing Street.

They complained that the campaign had been centred around a “cult of personality” and “central control”, adding: “It has completely blown up in our face”.

And the Guardian:

Theresa May’s position as Conservative leader is under pressure after her gamble on an early election appeared to have backfired spectacularly.

Tory MPs were shocked and furious after the party lost much of its 20-point lead in the polls during the course of the campaign….

The former chancellor George Osborne, who was sacked by May last year, was one of the first senior party figures to react to the result, saying if the exit poll were correct it would be “catastrophic” for the Tories and the prime minister personally.

He described the Conservative manifesto as “one of the worst manifestos in history” and expressed disappointment that the party was perceived as turning away from metropolitan liberal voters.

“It’s difficult to see, if these numbers are right, how they would put together the coalition to remain in office,” he said on ITV. “But equally, it’s quite difficult to see how Labour could put together a coalition. It’s on a real knife edge.”

He said there would be a “huge postmortem” about a manifesto drawn up by a very small circle of people in Downing Street and the overall style of the election campaign.

Update 6:20 AM: There is still one seat yet to be tallied, but as of now, the total is 318 for the Tories and 261 for Labour. Links are going up soon, so we have some of the tearing of hair and rending of garments over there. Some of the questions that the media will focus on in the next few days are:

How long can May hold on? With remarkable gall, she’s using Brexit as the excuse for hanging on, contending that resigning would lead to delay in the start of the negotiations.

Who will succeed her? The bookies have the top picks as the horrific Boris Johnson, the dim bulb David Davies, and Phillip Hammond. Hammond seems a vastly better alternative, and his pro-EU stance could be a huge boon in the Brexit talks, since the high handed and ignorant stance May has taken has made the UK’s weak position only worse. Interpersonal relations make a huge difference in negotiating outcomes; I’ve seen poorly positioned parties do way better than they should have via charm and guile. But there may be too many Tories wedded to hard Brexit to listen to the message this election delivered.

When will the next election be? No matter how the Tory leadership struggle resolves itself, a new election is in the offing. It might be more than a year out, but the unsettledness of this result may point to a vote as soon as in a couple of months?

What does this mean for Brexit? It ought to mean more of a “soft Brexit” stance, which is where this would have to come out eventually given the UK’s lack of leverage.

And thanks for the great discussion!

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    1. Dead Dog

      Thanks Chris, yes, it just shows what they think of the last 40 years of government. Like Brexit, the majority want change, particularly the youth, who are priced out of education, health, homes and jobs thanks to successive no-liberal ‘solutions’

  1. Synoia

    UKIP is Not Happy. From leader Paul Nutta!

    Appropriate name for a UKIP leader. (If you know your cockney rhyming slang).

    1. notabanker

      UKIP and SNP get their beatdown. Got away with cynical last go. Cynical and smug didn’t go down so well this time.

  2. vlade

    to the Nutty:
    if the exit poll is right, then british rejected hard brexit (and ukip) so of course brexit is in danger…. will of the people anyone?

    1. UserFriendly

      BBC revises exit poll, forecasting Tories to get 322 seats

      Just like I warned, Labour came up in Scotland from SNP and the Tories were able to sneak in a bunch of seats. Stupid first past the post. :-(

      1. UserFriendly

        Sinn Fein and DUP whipped out SDLP and UUP. SF now has 7 seats lowering the majority needed to 321 and giving the other 11 NI seats to the tory loving DUP (technically 1 independant who used to be DUP and has said she won’t back corbyn). I really don’t like SF right now.

        1. PlutoniumKun

          Sinn Fein actually deliberately ran weak candidates in strong SDLP areas (in an informal pact with them). They have always had a policy of not differentiating between the Unionist parties. Its not their fault the SDLP is so useless.

          Labour made a terrible error not doing similar with the Greens, PC and SNP. Labour handed the Tories seats in Scotland by insisting on splitting the left wing vote.

          1. Ahimsa

            Who’s decision was this not to cooperate?
            First past the post requires a corresponding strategy. The Conservatives seat total is really not representative of their actual support.
            Parties should know in advance if the have a realistic chance of a win or not – if not, then trade off seats with each other.
            (Same thing happened on the left in the French presidential election.)

            1. PlutoniumKun

              I think its deep within Labour DNA that they, and only they, can represent the the British working people (except, oddly, in NI, where they historically allowed the SDLP a free run up to a few years ago).

              They have never seen other left of centre parties as anything but rivals. This may have made sense in not allowing splits from the right and left, but has been hugely damaging when it comes to dealing with left wing nationalists and Greens.

              Also, I think it must be said, that the first past the post system has ensured that British politicians are lousy at doing deals or compromising. Its a winner take all electoral system, completely alien to most other European countries where doing overt and covert deals with other political parties is just the normal way of doing things. From, say, an Irish or German or Dutch political operative’s perspective, the failure of the Labour Party to allow any co-operation with SNP or the Greens on the ground is just baffling incompetence, a pointless waste of seats.

              1. Darn

                Similarly nationalists only act left-wing to compete with Labour. A united Ireland or independent Scotland would be forced into Tory policies except in name.

                One could equally say the SNP handed the Tories seats in Scotland by splitting the left-wing vote… you are asking one party to blink first.

                As for Labour in NI, they will not allow candidates, only members, which were banned too until about ten years ago.

              2. templar555510

                Absolutely right . It’s very odd when you think that part of the Labour DNA is the Rochdale Pioneers – the Co-operative movement ( long forgotten sadly ) . Maybe , just maybe, some of that spirit is coming back to inform a revivified Labour Party trying its best to shake off the long shadow cast by Blair and his ilk .

                1. Darn

                  The Co-op Party still exists and many Labour MPs are in fact Co-op candidates elected under their pact with Labour.

  3. purplepencils

    This will be the second time in barely a year that the country has been in turmoil because of self-serving Conservative leaders.

    So… was it a Brexit election or not a Brexit election, and do we need another referendum to sort that out?

      1. Art Eclectic

        They’ve got a ways to go to match the USA for own-goals though….

        We are Number One!

  4. johnnygl

    Wow, this really did shape up like the democratic primaries. Establishment is damaged, possibly beyond repair, but the insurgents haven’t won.

    Will the eu force brexit on the uk, anyway? I suspect yes…

    1. PlutoniumKun

      The EU can’t force Brexit on the UK, it is the UK that launched A.50 before it was necessary (May could have chosen to drag out the process if she wanted). There is no known legal mechanism for withdrawing the A.50 now its been served, its irrevocable.

      1. vlade

        Yes, one of the smartest moves – fire a hard-deadling massive task, and then get distracted for the next two monhs (even if all goes extremely well). You can tell that May was always a brilliant strategist who would show it to the EU negotiators!

      2. Darn

        Parliament could vote to reapply, which is not so farfetched considering the attitude of the SNP to iScotland’s membership. I assume may chose to trigger A50 so that the next election could not become a referendum on whether Brexit would happen, and so she could unite the right by destroying UKIP. With a majority of 20, UKIP could have taken those seats unless May said “Brexit means Brexit”.

      3. begob

        There is no known legal mechanism for withdrawing the A.50 now its been served, its irrevocable.

        Yes, and the case in Ireland to clarify this point was withdrawn a few days ago. Another critical mis-step by the Tory leadership.

  5. Altandmain

    Assuming that these results are accurate (and that is always an if because exit polls are often incorrect), May just got a well deserved and perhaps long overdue comeuppance.

    This whole decision to call the election at a time she thought that the Labour Party was vulnerable backfired miserably for her.

    I think that the Blairite faction of Labour will try a coup again but their case is going to be a lot weaker than before.

    Oh and if May forms a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, then Brexit negotiations just got a lot more complex.

    1. PlutoniumKun

      I think this is as much a rout for the Blairites as for May. Corbyn’s hand is greatly strengthened. I think they would have to wait for another election (or at least, wait for bad local elections) before they could make a move.

      I don’t see any possibility of the Lib Dems going into coalition. They have made it absolutely clear that their policy is to reverse Brexit. Its impossible to see how they could come to a compromise on it. Its the DUP or nothing. The good people of Mainland Britain are going to see up close just what a delightful person Arlene Foster is, now that she’ll be calling the shots (and make no mistake, they are the biggest winners of the election). This is a woman who considers the Torys to be a bunch of effete cosmopolitan pinkos. She’ll sort them out.

      1. Darn

        The DUP was actually anti-austerity in its 2015 manifesto, haven’t seen 2017’s, and demanded nothing but no cuts in NI and legal protection for the union jack. Foster is like May an unpopular leader after serious blunders.

        Jezza has been seen off by his pro-IRA reputation — the DUP seemingly not noticing his anti-IRA statement to the NI Secretary the day after the dreadful “all bombings” interview the DUP slammed him for, and the morning of the Manchester bomb.

        He will have to publicise this position if he has any chance of improving the party’s record at the next election.

        The UUP had a choice of propping up Major’s minority government and according to one book I read they demanded nothing in exchange.

  6. MoiAussie

    Yves, we greatly appreciate the rush job you’ve done here. But for posterity, you may want to change Meanspirted to Meanspirited in the headline.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      You know, the software gave the clearly wrong spelling a pass and flagged the corrected spelling as wrong? So I added the obligatory hyphen. Thanks.

  7. gonzomarx

    it seems to be Tory olds returning from UKIP vs big(?) youth turn out for Labour

    1. Anon

      Lots of gloomy faces, watching media hacks have a sad is always worth it. The pound is having a sad too.

      “We’ve lost Gower.”

      1. gonzomarx

        Whiskey and beer has kicked in so wit wisdom is out of window, but Hurrah so far

  8. Alex Morfesis

    Holy (family blog) (family blog) (family blog)…will corbyn be smart enough to keep wearing black suits and start talking to the liveries and the rest of the city about them making enough new extra money so his “official” tax increase is offset by higher profits ??

    will he show up at 8 am and push the magic “opening bell” @ the london exchange…he should…may and company are done…if tony blair and his keystonekop associates dont acknowledge the miracle Jeremy pulled off, they will end up pasoking themselves…

    all things are possible…the harder you work, the luckier you get…

    1. Alex Morfesis

      And now for something completely different…corbyn is the power source for the labor party…however…is he smart enough to pull off a slip and slide and place some other labourite as the actual prime minister and keep the foreign ministry for himself while being the power behind the throne ??

      He certainly appears capable of bouncing and deflecting all attacks…guessing the political cartoonists will have him with a cape and a large C across his chest tomorrow as uberman(for those too young…not the car-rider man)…but what if he pulls the ultimate move and lets some other labourite take the arrows officially while he does the world tour working on peace settlements and a Nobel…and works the government from behind the throne…he could pluck a blairite and token them and if they stumble, he can step in later…will annoy and confuse those who will want to hit him from all sides with arrows…yet he is the power and can will the manifesto while not being bogged down by the day to day…

      In theory no politician wants to give up control publicly…but running a minority govt without a formal coalition agreement will allow those who don’t exactly love him to keep him busy with minutiae…by having someone else take the arrows publicly, he can work behind the scenes to get his manifesto working…won’t happen…but should…

      1. Alex Morfesis

        Drunken monkey style wins…corbyn was never as bad as he allowed himself to be portrayed…nah…he couldn’t have been playing 13 dimensional…he could not have been using jedi mind tricks…but it really is almost impossible to imagine someone appearing so weak and then crushing may and the tories the way he did…even ukips nigel ferengi was impressed by corbyn…

        Nite nite…a good day for humanity…

      2. uncle tungsten

        I am surprised Alex, suggesting any Blairite being capable of being PM while Jeremy Corbyn takes a back seat is sad and naive (I took it as sarcasm). Corbyn and his non macho, non blairite, non warmongering self and arty platform just won an astounding victory over parsimony and austerity and the banksters.

        The Blairites dragged the chain every inch of the way. The blairites are now disgraced for their sabotage of Corbyn and the British Labor Party. Corbyn is a humble deal maker rather than a typical macho egotistical deal maker. Both personal styles can make deals. The UK public prefers the new kind, in the public interest, open, honest and genuine. YAY

        1. Colonel Smithers

          Thank you Uncle Albert and well said. WTF was John Woodcock on about this morning?

        2. Colonel Smithers

          Thank you and well said, Uncle Albert.

          WTF was John Woodcock on about this morning? The Blairites should be driven out.

          1. Clive

            Hear hear. At the very least this result should be the death knell for Blairism in the Labour Party. The fact that there are still some in it who seriously think that a bit more neoliberalism from Labour would have turned the trick and got a majority is delusional.

            1. Darius

              While Corbyn kills it, as they say in show business, on foreign policy, his main appeal is his economic policy. Now if only he could make deals, as set out above, with SNP and Greens.

        3. Alex Morfesis

          Although not joking, sadly it wont happen…corbyn knocked down the tories but he did not knock them out…keep your enemies closer in times of despair whenever possible…

          by doing the unintended and having a token “soft” blairite as pm with corbyn being the real power in the party, he could defuse the internal bickering within labor…there was no suggesting infesting corbyns cabinet with multiple medusas, just a token he can control and then blame if things go sideways…

          despite the great effort and effect, there is no way the tories are going to give up power but if corbyn is able to purchase the attention of the dup to keep may from holding power, he will need every soldier he can muster…

          corbyn got nowhere near 322…

          he knocked down the bully that wanted to take his mums homemade chocolate chip cookies, but he has to see that bully again in the schoolyard at breaktime…

          This is not a time in history for the uk to find itself splintered…

          corbyn needs to cross the Rubicon…

          maybe even have meetings with tories who hate may (since it seems she will refuse to resign) & propose a “grand coalition” if the tories are willing to force may out with a vote of no confidence even if the dup agrees to a deal with her…

          corbyn as a weak minority pm will not end well…there are no novels on my bookshelves…political realities and the capacity to govern should dictate actions…corbyn doesn’t have enough votes and if the tories hold onto power with the help of dup, there wont be another scheduled election anytime soon…if he wants to govern and work on making his manifesto a reality, then it is all hands on deck…clothspins optional…

  9. marku52

    Hurray! Labour winning might have put them in an untenable position, with Brexit sucking all the political oxygen, VS delivering on their manifesto.

    Gridlock may be the best outcome of some pretty poor selections, as in the US

    1. JohnnyGL

      Also, UKIP-ers seem to have split more evenly than expected, rather than swinging behind the Tories. That also seems to be a factor.

      1. PlutoniumKun

        It doesn’t really surprise me that they did well in LibDem territory. There is a big centrist soft liberal vote out there of people who just don’t like the two big parties. The LibDems have traditionally hoovered them up, but in showing their cards under the last government they have pushed them away. Last election they bought the nice, soft Cameron line. This time they had nowhere to go if they wanted a tactical vote against Corbyn. It probably helped that nobody gave Corbyn much of a chance, this made it easier for them to vote Labour.

  10. notabanker

    BBC headlining “Conservatives largest Party” as a stream of Labour winners are announced. Have gone from “May gain a majority” to “326 seats required for majority”. Lol. Still clinging for hope.

    1. JustAnObserver

      Be careful this early on. IIRC from all my previous UK election experience solid Labour constituencies tend to complete the count and announce early.

      That said I have all my appendages firmly crossed …

      Also for you USians have a look at the Guardian UK edition’s live blog to see what “hand counted in public” looks like. esp the girl carrying a ballot box and running fast enough to get motion blur into the picture. LoL.

    2. Clive

      UK “liberal” and “independent” (a.k.a. neoliberal) media such as the Guardian and the BBC will be getting its knickers in a right old twist with this result. To be accurate, the Guradian has been a bit better of late, perhaps reading the political tea leaves.

      Just like with Hillary, they couldn’t bring themselves to consider the possibility of a real, live socialist getting anywhere. Of course, what we’d label today as a socialist candidate would have been a classic New Deal Deomocrat 40-50 years ago.

      I’m surprised the Daily Mail isn’t calling for martial law to be imposed.

      Main “likely to get lost in the hullabaloo” for me is the SNP — voters liked them more when they were honest dealers and liked them a whole lot less when they were more overt political game players and troublemakers for the other parties rather than screw you, Westminster party. Political machinations are what conventional establishment parties do and that’s not what voters want from the SNP.

      Don’t even get me started on Sinn Féin and them not having their MPs go to parliament. This time around, if it ends up propping up a minority May administration, they will look very dumb and complicit indeed.

      1. makedoanmend

        Hiya Clive,

        I think you have a point about the SNP. However, many voted for them for Westminster last time because the raw deal about devolved powers was still fresh in the electorate’s mind, and the vote was a two fingered salute in many other ways. Those circumstances were never going to be repeated again. Still ,the SNP had a very bad night.

        As for SF, I won’t go too deep. People outside of the six counties really will never understand the core SF vote. These voters consider themselves as Irish. Full stop. They’re concerned how SF does as an all Ireland party or as a local party. SF has more national legislative seats in the Irish Republic than it does in the UK by far.

        As for the meta-vote, Labour took many votes off of the SNP compared to the last election and tories slipped into the seats. Should Labour or the SNP have stepped down in certain seast or made an election pact? Maybe. Very doubtful Labour would have been up for such a gambit imo.

        And at the end of the day, the tories took more seats than any other party, including labour.

        Them’s the breaks.

        1. Clive

          Oh, you’re right, it would have been ludicrous for Sinn Féin to be routinely taking their Westminster seats because of (about 20 paragraphs removed here to save what’s left of Naked Capitalism’s readers’ sanity) history.

          But it just goes to show in politics, context is everything. In this instance, for Sinn Féin not to take their seats and thereby enable a DUP supported minority Conservative government (or even a formal coalition) is, well, words fail me. The DUP, for goodness sakes. Ulster will definitely need saving from sodomy if that happens, just not the sort Ian Paisley had in mind…

          1. PlutoniumKun

            On the contrary, I think Sinn Fein will be absolutely delighted that now the good people of the Shires will see up close what Arlene and her boys are like, now that they are Lord and Master/Mistress of all they survey. SF only care about Irish elections. Having the DUP in such a position of power is clarifying, and will force the government in the Republic to have closer links to SF (something which will horrify Varadkar and his little Tory buddies).

            SF have always wanted to wipe out the supposed centre of politics in NI to force people to chose between them and the DUP, knowing full well how horrifying the DUP is (the British media always of course choose to look the other way and pretend they are merely rather rough hewed but decent country folk, rather than the nasty little bigots they are). The other big news of this election is the complete destruction of the supposed ‘moderates’ in NI (i.e. neoliberal with nice soft accents). This is exactly what SF wanted.

            Anyway, for SF its not about ‘taking seats’. Its about swearing an allegiance to the Queen, as MP’s are required to do. They simply won’t do that.

            1. Clive

              Yes, the politics of it are convoluted and there’s little wriggle room for any of the NI MPs, be they green or orange.

              But just imagine if, maybe a year to eighteen months down the line and May’s Conservatives have had three or four by-election casualties. They do a confidence-motion do-or-die tactic to get something awful and controversial through parliament. All the other parties (Labour, the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Plaid, the Green) make a united stand.

              And they fail. Because Sinn Féin. The optics would be terrible.

              1. PlutoniumKun

                I take your point about that, but I think that realistically in that sort of situation the media would make it all about ‘Corbyn and the Lib Dems helping the IRA take down the government’. Which means that such an anti-Tory coalition would never hold together for fear of the optics.

                I’ve no inside knowledge, but I suspect that SF simply don’t see any realistic situation whereby their 7 seats can ever make a difference, so it is easier for them to keep their olympian distance away from it all. I don’t think its even a matter of internal discussion, its just not on their agenda, their entire focus is on Belfast and Dublin matters.

                Incidentally, another feature of the elections was the complete failure of People Before Profit, an alliance of Trotskyist groups who tried to challenge SF from the left, and from a pro-Brexit (Lexit) side. They had some success in local elections, but made not a dent in these.

            2. Darn

              While the DUP are homophobic Jesus freaks the fact remains they have stayed in coalition with SF despite the IRA killing two men in 2015 and raising millions a year from crime in the south, which gives them the ability to rearm any time they like. There was plenty of fuss when Robinson said he “trusted Muslims with simple tasks”, with Ann Lo saying the leader of any other party in the UK would have had to resign; not so when Adams was revealed to have concealed his brother’s confession to child rape.

              As for the oath, you are incorrect; the possibility of making it optional has been floated publicly in the recent past and SF’s response was they would not take their seats “under any circumstances”. To republicans, the UK Parliament does not have jurisdiction in Ireland.

              Republicans would choose the poverty of a united Ireland (38% of NI’s public spending gone overnight) and the poverty of a Tory government to the alternative of abandoning republicanism and getting left-wing UK governments elected.

              1. makedoanmend

                And Unionists choose to support the UK party of poverty, early death and austerity.

                And please provide proof that there is some glorious ongoing crime spree being perpetrated in the South, as you call it. You keep repeating this mantra. So far, having explored this unsubstantiated nonsense, I find no headlines anywhere revealing the Garda Síochána is under undue pressure from the so-called crime spree.

                1. Darn

                  UK under the Tories makes NI richer than a united Ireland would, the DUP doesn’t want Jezza to jeopardise it. The DUP shouldn’t support the Tories, no. I never said so. Point was, Jezza could have prevented this especially in the final 2 weeks if he publicised his own bloody statement while the Tories were pushing their edited video of him. The DUP *might* have been satisfied and their MPs supported him today; he certainly would have got more votes in England. A few thousand more votes in marginals and he’d have won. Major campaign error.

                  The Gardaí estimated the IRA’s property portfolio at €200 million. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/provisional-ira-may-have-left-stage-but-not-theatre-1.2324978

                  1. makedoanmend

                    Article dated 2015. Absolute hit piece which failed to provide one piece of bona fide evidence for the statements made.

                    The bit about the money was particularly amusing. The author cites some supposed figure that supposedly exists before 2008 without a source citation. Why not a £300, 500 million. Hell, make it a cool billion.

                    On the same day in the same paper the PSNI (police service of northern ireland) said the IRA was no longer engaged in any terrorist activities:

                    ““Some current Provisional IRA and former members continue to engage in a range of criminal activity and occasional violence in the interest of personal gain or personal agendas.” (Emphasis mine)


                    Try harder.

                    Your unionist positions are based on common mythologies shared quite often with the likes of the DUP.

                    Pure fantasy:

                    “UK under the Tories makes NI richer than a united Ireland would, the DUP doesn’t want Jezza to jeopardise it.”

                    Completely unsupported tripe. You have no economic figures to back this statement whatsoever because none have ever been calculated. Even if one had tried to do this analysis, what metrics would they use and how would they make comparisons based upon pure conjecture?

                    The reason the DUP doesn’t want Corbyn in office is that he will not view the homophobia and sectarianism of some it members in a favourable light, and he might suggest closer cooperation throughout Ireland.

                    Your election assertion is equally absurd.
                    There is not supporting data that your ludicrous statement that had Corbyn followed your agenda that he would have won the election.

                    At what level of gullibility do you think everyone else with any knowledge of Ireland and the UK operate at:

                    “The DUP *might* have been satisfied and their MPs supported him today…”

                    And elephants *might* fly. The DUP is ideologically the opposite of UK Labour and you know this. The DUP will support Labour when Labour stops supporting equal rights for all citizens.

                    I’ve noticed your tendency to need to have the last word in every post in which you are involved.

                    Rest assured that last word shall reside with yourself as I won’t be responding to your wild assertions and makey-up modern mythology.

                    best regards

                    1. Darn

                      It isn’t a unionist position to say the IRA fundraise, which was my position when I was nationalist. You can’t get the PSNI or Gardai to openly say Gerry Adams is in the IRA, either, do you deny that too? (Peace process!) Not pure conjecture. The DUP made it clear in 2015 they would support either Labour or the Tories and their only real demand was money, not social conservatism at UK level. Try harder yourself, and don’t be snotty.

                      The DUP is ideologically closer to Labour than the Tories according to its Commons voting record. Why? because it’s socially conservative but economically closer to Labour. So much for “any knowledge of Ireland” https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/10/our-friends-in-the-north-the-dup-and-the-tories-arent-ideologically-close/

            1. makedoanmend

              Do the maths. SFs seats can’t deliver a coalition – nor the SNPs, PC, Libdems, etc.

              It’s majortity rule.

              The electorate voted as they did. They facilitated Tory-DUP rule. Bad electorate.

              1. Darn

                Labour + Lib Dems + SNP + Plaid + DUP would have a majority. Same was true in 2010 but Brown didn’t pursue it. Too scared of Wee Eck’s demands.

        2. paul

          I don’t see where the SNP (or when) became troublemakers or game players.

          Their problem was that they took a super cautious approach,saying look how responsible we are.

          Their fairly straightforward work in Westminster was pretty much ignored in the media anyway and Holyrood’s efforts to ameliorate Westminster’s policies were taken for granted.

          While I am disappointed:

          Scottish labour,especially in the north east, encouraged a Tory vote, delivering seats to may and denying an ally to corbyn.

          Scots Tories in may’s minority will be denied involvement in the committee stages of legislation due to EVEL

          SNP have 60%, an absolute majority of scottish westminster seats, a level of failure may must envy.

          Just 7 years ago we had 6 seats.

          1. Darn

            The SNP put their own interests first in 1979 and ever since, as it was fear of the SNP’s poll rise that drove 2015’s English voters to give the Tories a majority. Salmond even said the English should vote Green, which would have denied Labour seats and helped build a Tory majority. As for super caution, the SNP are Blairites who steal voters from anti-Blairite left-wingers by saying “anti-austerity” (they wanted a 0.2% UK spending rise, not a reversal of the cuts, let alone a stimulus).

            1. makedoanmend

              The SNPs main interest and political platform is predicated upon Scottish Independence. You, as a seemingly unionist (small u), seem to think this somehow represents a betrayal.

              I see you also run with the neo-liberal MSM mantra that the SNP scared the UK into voting for the tories last time out. This scare story really does belittle the UK voter which, during yesterday’s election, shows a far more nuanced and broad understanding of the political landscape than you give them credit for.

              No, SNP members are not Blairites. Blairites belong to the UK Labour party which you claimed to work for in the six counties in previous posts. Really, you shouldn’t make such superfluous claims, knowing the difference.

              Isn’t also true that the UK Labour party refused to support any candidates nominated by so-called NI labourists as rogue candidates?

              1. Darn

                Regardless of whether I’m unionist (yes, ex-Irish nationalist), paul says Labour, but not the SNP, “encouraged a Tory vote, delivering seats to may and denying an ally to corbyn”.

                The SNP are Blairite — their 2015 manifesto was to the right of Miliband (less housing), despite publication a week later. They got into power in Holyrood by moving right after losing on Labour’s left.

                And I didn’t say “SNP members”. Members of SNP and Scot Lab both think they’re the real lefty party according to polling but Labour’s leadership and policy have been to the left since Miliband.

                True, because as I said above, they will not allow candidates at all in NI.

                1. makedoanmend

                  So, yeah, you’re a unionist.

                  I live in Scotland. The SNP (along with Labour in some constitutencies) have consistently built social housing over the last five years against the manifest wishes of the Tories in London. The building program only stopped in my constituency when Labour entered into coalition with the Tories.

                  Unlike England/Wales, the SNP have kept free prescriptions.

                  The SNP are no left-wing party but they’re a damn site better than most constituencies where Blairite Labourites manifested austerity with glee five years ago.

                  You can use the Blairite tar-brush on other parties all you want but it don’t make it true.

                  In one of your first posts you claimed you were helping Corbyn get elected by working for UK Labour in the six counties, yet UK Labour doesn’t select candidates in the six counties.

                  Unlike yourself, I actually voted for our local Labour candidate who doesn’t show Blairite tendencies.

                  1. Darn

                    The SNP made the Blairite charge true, I cited the manifestoes who prove it even back in 2015. Drilling down to individual councils or constituencies is irrelevant, especially “five years ago”. Nationally SNP policy is Blairite and so are the leadership. SNP’s current leader wanted a 0.2% spending increase and Miliband wanted 0%. Miliband has been replaced by Jezza, the SNP still has Sturgeon. It remains true Labour wanted more houses in 2015 than the SNP; Mhairi Black had the brass neck to mention housing in her maiden speech.

                    I never claimed to be helping Jezza get elected — I stated I was a party member. I am an inactive one because there is little to do except recruit ppl, which is good for membership dues for the party nationally but is unlikely to ever persuade them to allow candidates. (Fwiw some of us canvassed in D&G in 2015. Pointless. And an Ulster accent would have gone down badly in 2017)

      2. purplepencils

        Looks like Sinn Fein is not sitting in Parliament still. Perhaps they’ll change their minds soon? But yeah… looks like DUP might be the kingmaker now. Good God.

        And yes, the Guardian was a massive turn-off with its obvious anti-Corbyn bias, but it looks like, this election, they’ve very begrudgingly turned around. Then again, it must be said that Corbyn was not great at PMQs, and he has improved quite a bit this election.

      3. PlutoniumKun

        I don’t think Sinn Fein taking Westminster seats would make a difference. Politically, Labour (and the Lib Dems) would find it very hard to be seen to be taking the SF side in a vote for PM, or a no confidence vote. The only alternative to Conservatives/DUP is Labour/SNP/LibDem/SF/Green, and for all sorts of reasons, that just isn’t going to happen.

        As for Scotland, I’m afraid the blame there is all Labour. By splitting the left vote they let the Cons in for several seats. And their refusal to do a deal with the Greens cost progressives several seats too. Much as I’m happy they did well, Labour’s constant refusal to accept the need for a progressive front against the Tories has again gifted the Cons seats they don’t deserve.

        1. vlade

          Amen. But then, the UK politics was rarely a politics of consensus and coalition building (even inside the parties)

        2. Darn

          The splitting the left vote in Scotland argument means once Labour has lost a seat to the SNP it should never contest it again, since this always inevitably means a risk of splitting the left vote. By the same argument, the SNP should not fight elections because it risks electing Tories instead (which is why the Scottish Sun used to have “fighting for independence” on the masthead in the 80s, and why Murdoch endorsed the SNP in Scotland and Tories in England in 2015 — to keep Labour MPs out).

  11. MoiAussie

    Apologies for transplanting this from the cooler, but this is the more appropriate thread.

    Who wants to talk about the next Tory leader? John Rentoul in the independent for one: Weak and unstable Theresa May’s gamble has failed – and now she will have to go.

    Unless the exit poll is a long way out, it is hard to see how May can stay on as leader. Her party would never forgive her for holding an unnecessary election and losing seats. Boris Johnson and Amber Rudd may find themselves arguing about who is fit to drive the other home after a party once more, in a leadership election in which David Davis might be the surprise candidate who comes through the middle.

    When I wondered if the Poms might end up with the Boris a few days ago, someone presumably more informed suggested that was unlikely. (That outcome would however confirm that bad hair is a big plus for right wing leaders.) David Davis seems a poor choice, given his Brexit posture. Hopefully Ms Rudd will lose her seat. Who else is a potential candidate?

    Latest odds for next PM have Corbyn odds-on favourite at 5/6, May at 6/4 and the Boris at 6/1.

    1. PlutoniumKun

      It doesn’t matter who the Conservatives vote for, the real PM is now the fragrant and lovely Arlene Foster and that fine selection of gentlemen in the DUP, the UK’s very own KKK.

      1. Clive

        A serious possibility of Arlene Foster in the cabinet, oh, just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse. If that happens, I’m going to apply for a job cleaning the bathrooms in Mordor. The Eye of Sauron is marginally less scary than Arlene Foster is.

          1. paul

            Does anyone remember the posters of miliband in salmond’s top pocket last time round?

          2. Darn

            I’m from Northern Ireland and hate the DUP, but would like to know what you think Foster has done to make her Steve Bannon or the KKK other than the RHI ripoff, prevent gay marriage (the UUP also did this) and campaign for Brexit?

            1. Clive

              It wasn’t just preventing same-sex marriage, it was saying that it was all those awful people being horrible to her Twitter account that made her do it. Otherwise, if no-one had trolled her online, she’d have baked a cake for the first gay marriage in the six counties. Oh, puh-leeze Arlene, pull the other one, its got bells on it.

              Then the redoubtable Arlene was at it again, regretting — Arlene does a lot of that — calling Sinn Fein a crocodile but only ‘cos the nasty old Republicans did the “turning all those cruel words used to hurt us into badges of honour” switcheroo. Arlene liked the dirty trickery just fine, right up until it backfired.

              Let’s not forget that all blondes are dumb too, if they are also female. Stay classy, Arlene.

              1. Darn

                Yes and she blamed SF pursuing her on RHI on “misogyny”. This is like the Eye of Sauron, Steve Bannon and the KKK how?

                1. Clive

                  Because rather than displaying honest “I’m saying this and doing this because I am bigot” bigotry, Arlene has the nerve to blame social media — social media for cryin’ out loud — for her bigotry.

                  Even Donald Trump never said “It was Twitter that made me do it”. And at least Sauron didn’t claim he’d have stopped his plans for sending the Orcs to slaughter those who wouldn’t follow him because he didn’t get enough Likes on Facebook.

                  As this quote was on BBC which is a reliable source whatever its other ills and so I will assume is accurate shows, Arlene Foster is worse than the KKK. Unless you can show me a KKK member who will renounce bigotry if people are nicer to them and send them more cat pictures on Snapchat.

                  Mrs Foster insisted her party was not anti-gay but said that “very, very vicious” online abuse from LGBT activists demanding a law change made it less likely the DUP would support the move.

                  1. Darn

                    Er, Trump claims to be misrepresented by fake news all day long; Foster is is a liar, not a bigger liar than Trump. Being a homophobe =/= lynching black people!

                    It’s understandable that Labour supporters find this irresistable due to losing and May’s hypocrisy being exposed. However if the DUP were the KKK it would validate the criticism of Jezza being unacceptable. Own goal.

                    1. Clive

                      Oh, I see, bigotry is okay so long as you never make it physical? Who knew… and KKK members are only real, true KKK members if they actually lynch a black person? You learn something new every day…

                    2. Darn

                      Threading won’t let me respond Clive but yes there is a difference between violent and nonviolent bigots, therefore the DUP is not “the UK’s very own KKK”. Pointing this out does not mean I think “bigotry is okay”. It means I think the DUP are not the UK’s KKK!

  12. Cujo359

    The initial projection gave Mrs May’s Conservatives 314 seats, Labour 266, SNP 34 and Liberal Democrats 14. In the outgoing parliament, the Tories had 331 seats; a governing party needs 326 out of 650 seats for a majority…

    Looks like it’s going to be hard for either Conservatives or Labour to form a government. Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems together have 314 seats. OTOH, Lib Dems were supposedly burned by Tories last time, and SNP don’t seem to be a natural ally. Does this sort of thing usually get resolved somehow, or can we expect another election soon?

    1. MoiAussie

      May said that if she lost 6 seats, down from 330 to 324, that Jezza would be the next PM.

      Writing on her Facebook page the Prime Minister said: “The cold hard fact is that if I lose just six seats I will lose this election, and Jeremy Corbyn will be sitting down to negotiate with the presidents, prime ministers and chancellors of Europe.”

      314 is 10 less than that, but she’ll probably try to hang on with Unionist support if she isn’t dumped by her own party. I suspect with no real basis that she’ll get about 320.

    2. TheCatSaid

      SNP said they’d go into coalition with Labour.
      Maybe the 1 Green Party MP would as well.
      Much will depend on Lib Dems. . .

      If Sinn Fein were to also go in with Labour that would change the equation but they say they will continue to not participate in the UK parliament.

      A coalition government doesn’t necessarily mean another election is likely. Coalition governments are common throughout Europe. It may depend on what kind of “Programme for Government” can be negotiated between various groups–an agreement on certain policies, sometimes with local pork thrown in. Coalitions can be stable or unstable to any degree, depending on the degree of trust between the heads of the parties agreeing to form a coalition, their personalities, and other factors.

        1. TheCatSaid

          It’s looking like the DUP will be the ones negotiating to form a government with the Tories. This will give them lots of leverage. They’re stum for the moment about what they’ll be looking for as part of a deal.

          1. PlutoniumKun

            Yes, it looks impossible for a deal with the LibDems, they are dedicated Remainers, I don’t see how they could come to a an agreement.

            Arlene Foster is now the most powerful women in the UK. Most British I think have no idea who she is. They are about to get a very nasty shock.

          1. larry

            The final result is 317 for the Tories. They will need the DUP. Dear god. However, since the third recount won’t be carried out until 6 pm GMT, with only about 25 votes in it, the really final result won’t be known until the evening. Not that it makes much difference at this point in time.

  13. Anonymous2

    So far on results declared there is a swing to Labour from Conservatives of 1%. Current expectation is for May to lose her majority. There is already talk of a leadership challenge.

    1. MoiAussie

      According to the Grauniad the swings are all over the place, 17% to Labour in one seat, 15% to the Tories in another. As has been shown repeatedly, it’s not the average swing that matters, but the swing in marginal seats.

      1. makedoanmend

        Battersea (in London) has gone Labour. This is a swing-loss the tories wouldn’t have thought possible a month ago.

        1. MoiAussie

          Is that the one the Tories held by more than 10%?
          The G has Labour taking 2 marginal and 1 “safer” seat from the Tories, who have picked one up from SNP, to be down 2.

          1. makedoanmend

            The Tories held a 15.6% majority in Battersea last election and lost it by 4.4% this election.

            Now for Chelsea and Kensington – lol.

          1. allan

            Or maybe the American equivalent of Jim Messina is Alfred E. Newman.
            From Nov. 7, 2016:

            Ive spent last decade of life obsessed w Electoral College & it’s very hard to figure how Trump gets to 270 tomorrow. #AintGonnaHappen

      1. subgenius

        Weeping with joy at the end of Blairism, myself.

        And the Tories are down 10 seats so far…

        Loving it!

      2. Detroit Dan

        Yes. I am so happy that the Brits are voting in favor of helping each other out instead of more mean-spiritness. God bless ’em!

        1. Clive

          That, in a simple sentence, is what was behind a lot of lifelong Conservative voters switching to someone, anyone, but May. As my uncle and aunt said (lifelong Tories, at least as long as I can remember, they are in their 70’s) “it’s always the poor who end up suffering”.

          Up until 10 years ago, they’d have kicked the poor into the ditch. A coulple of years ago, they started to take some notice but didn’t do anything. But this time, the smell had gotten so bad, even they couldn’t — wouldn’t, to give them some credit — ignore it.

  14. yenwoda

    Great results so far. Corbyn ran a great campaign. Shame that SNP’s poor performance is giving the Tories a boost up there.

    1. makedoanmend

      It was always going to be hard for the SNP to get 56 out of 59 seats again. The Tories have largely gained when the SNP and Labour split the vote, letting the tory sneak through. Given the amount of money the tories spent this election, their returns ain’t too hot on £’s spent per vote gained.

      If the SNP comes out with 34-35 seats (a majority), they’ll be sad but not too sad.

      Labour’s results in Scotland are above expectations, and I think the SNP needed this wake up call.

      1. darthbobber

        SNP was never going to hold all those seats. In 2015 they went from, I believe 6 seats to 56 largely as a result of the winkin’, blinkin’ and nod performance of the 3 national parties with their joint better together nonsense and vague promises that never materialized. So the reaction let SNP make almost a clean sweep as almost all of the yes voters went SNP.
        While the tories gained 10 scottish seats from the snp this time, labor also clawed back six, in spite of really having no Scottish strategy or devoting any national resources to that part of the campaign.
        I think the 10 seats for the tories are partly in reaction to the indyref 2 noise, with the tories seen as most likely to block that. The constituencies that went tory this time seem to be
        a) Strongly pro-union, and
        b) Much less pro-remain on the EU question than the bulk of Scotland.

    2. Anon

      Scottish Labour told people to vote for the Tories to stop SNP. Last I saw Tories had picked up 3 SNP seats. Have to wait for more of those seats to come in.

    3. paul

      Remember that the SNP is still the 3rd largest party in Westminster, paradoxically they will be more influential in a hung parliament.

      1. Clive

        This is very true. I don’t doubt that, slightly chastened perhaps, they’ll use it with their previous adeptness. The spectre of the Liberal Democrats still haunts the corridors of parliament as a warning of what happens when you get it wrong,

        1. MoiAussie

          The SNP is indeed in an interesting place, with former leader Salmond and deputy leader Angus Robertson both losing their seats. Robertson was a good performer in the House and they will miss him.

          They’ll have to tread very carefully on the subject of another Scexit referendum. In fact that idea may now die, particularly if they anticipate a Corbyn win within a few years.

  15. ginnie nyc

    Well, now half the constituencies are in. Labour continues to do well. What I don’t get is the “shock” about a hung parliament. The Telegraph, for example, has been running articles for about two weeks with titles like “A History of Hung Parliaments” (w/a pic of Wilson). The Tories have known this was a possibility, I don’t understand the surprise.

    1. JohnnyGL

      Oh, please do this! I’d love to see what an investigation turns up. Now doubt they’d find some dirt on some of our big names here in the USA!

      The wars won’t stop until someone goes to jail for starting them!

    2. LT

      He can crash at Kissenger’s place, golf with Bush, hang out on yachts with Obama, dine with the Clintons…Fun times!

  16. katiebird

    It has been fun to watch the returns so far. But now things are getting tight and it’s not as fun. …

    1. subgenius

      This is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning….

      This is the most momentous swing in modern politics – a massive media campaign against labour with the added outspending and ongoing attempted Blairite inside hatchet job, and it all resulted in the biggest turn about in British politics.

      There might be hope, after all…

  17. barrisj

    Looks as though pro-Brexit/anti-Independence Scots tossed out SNP MPs in favour of the Tories…Alex Salmon and Angus Robertson cut down was a big blow to the Westminster SNP contingent. Corbyn partisans commenting on the Graud election blog really putting the boot into Scottish voters. Truth is, the SNP well over-represented after last election, and this begins to right the balance. Labour still has a long way back, though.

    1. Clive

      I would also wager the Scottish Conservatives, slightly bizarrely, picked up some pro-Brexit pro-Independence Scots too. At least those for whom leaving the EU was as, or more, important than leaving the Union. A rare, but damaging political miscalculation by the normally flawlessly adept SNP leader Sturgeon.

        1. TheCatSaid

          Yes and she’s being asked about it already. Naturally she declines to discuss it.

        2. purplepencils

          She and Rudd are certainly better than some of the monkeys the Tories have in Cabinet *gives Boris the side-eye*.

          1. vlade

            Rudd has a way too marginal seat now. Davidson is actually quite reasonable (by Tory standards). When I saw her in HIGNFY last year, and Ian Hislop was making fun of her (asking her to come out for TM), it was clear she didn’t want to rock the boat but thought TM, well, crap.

            Moreover, Davidson is the only Tory today who can say “we got our better result than expected” – as Scotland is the only place where Tories gained seats..

            1. purplepencils

              Very true. Her comparatively poor election showing weakens her.

              Davidson certainly has a strong case. More personality and eloquence than our Dear Leader as well. I would certainly prefer Davidson to May.

              1. vlade

                But can you imagine it, openly gay, pro-European Scottish woman as a Tory leader?

                Well, I guess it would save NHS on some geriatric care, and spur the economy (at least the undertaking part of it), so she can make the case for saving the country money by being elected :D

  18. Strategist

    It is now firmly called for no Tory absolute majority. Remaining scenarios at present with 22/650 seats still to declare, Tory+Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party coalition or Labour + Liberal Democrat + Scottish National Party + Plaid Cymru + Green Party coalition.

    1. Strategist

      It is now officially a hung parliament. With a massive and unexpected Labour win in Southampton Test – the port whence the Titanic sailed……..

      1. Clive

        Unfortunately in my constituency, also in Hampshire, the sitting Conservative MP was returned with an increased share of the vote.

        UKIP’ers returning to their comfort zone is what I put it down to.

        A crazy election — with no shortage of crazy results.

    1. Strategist

      Hey Lambert

      also he’s not Jihadi Jez (Murdoch’s Sun) or an Apologist for Terror (Daily Mail)

      One thing that makes me proud of a big proportion of my fellow, regular guy British citizens, is that they looked at this propaganda shit, and utterly rejected it

      1. Lambert Strether

        Yes. We need to work on that. I very rarely watch TV, but I saw CNN for some hours over a few days last month. It’s a lot like the Daily Mail or The Sun. Sometimes you get one screen with like six talking heads on it! And the fearmongering is constant.

    2. relstprof

      Yes. It helps if you actually run on a platform publicly, and challenge other party candidates to do the same.

      As opposed to contesting progressive benefits publicly in St Louis. And then burying the whole bloody thing in webpage confusion.

      (If what the Clinton campaign produced could be called a platform, which strains the meaning of the term.)

  19. ginnie nyc

    According to the Guardian, it is now officially a hung parliament. And Mayhem is hanging out the window – the knives are out. Everyone’s friend Osbourne will make a play for certain.

    1. Strategist

      Osborne is out of the game. He runs a freesheet rag that is mostly a litter problem on the London tube. He’s a non-person, a Cheshire cat rictus smile. Thank God. The elected Tory MPs decide their leader, and no-one else. I reckon they’ll plump for David Davis.

    2. Lambert Strether

      The Tories are good about heaving damaged leaders over the side; no sentimentality at all. It’s the best thing about them!

      But good Lord, what a weak bench? Boris Johnson in the running? Seriously?

      Idea: Tony Blair crosses the aisle!

      1. Strategist

        Blair is also out of the game. He’s not an MP. He didn’t even run. They are all focused on the next gig, making money. The nature of British corruption is that you can’t make big money whilst in office. You accumulate IOUs and cash in after departure.

        What matters in the Tory parliamentary party (who elect the leader and no-one else) is, were you are a Brexiter or a remainer pre 23/6/16. Assuming the Brexiters are the majority, they’ll go for David Davis I expect. The most human of the Brexiters, with a nice back story. To me, he’s the only guy who can simultaneously cancel Brexit and avoid civil war in the country.

        1. Strategist

          Only FW could tell the whites apartheid was finished. Only Paisley could tell the Prods to sign the Good Friday agreement. Only Nixon could go to China. And only David Davis can tell the faithful that the Brexit dream is over.

      2. PlutoniumKun

        Whoever it is (and May has said she is not resigning), he or she had better get used to the idea of taking instructions from Arlene Foster. Now that will send a chill down a few spines.

    3. purplepencils

      Looks like Osborne should have gone over to the Evening Standard. Otherwise, he may have been able to position himself for a comeback. I’m glad he’s out, though.

      There were whispers of Rudd having been approached? And Davidson’s position will certainly be strengthened by the Tories’ strong showing in Scotland.

  20. Strategist

    Scottish National Party hold Fife North East by 2 votes! Over the Liberal Democrats.

    Home of the Royal & Ancient Golf Club. Which has also seen some close-run drama in its day….

  21. TheCatSaid

    In all the UK political commentary they are stunned at how well Labour has done and they are all mystefied. NO ONE has mentioned the key strategic and practical help Labour got from one of Bernie Sanders’ key campaign staff. Her participation and organizing started the abrupt rise in Labour polling results. High turnout of young voters. Using supporters from safe seats to campaign and GOTV in other locations where there was a better chance of making a difference. Brilliantly executed campaign. With excellent policies and an honest leader.

    1. Lambert Strether

      > NO ONE has mentioned the key strategic and practical help Labour got from one of Bernie Sanders’ key campaign staff.

      Name? Link?

      I’m also experiencing some very pleasurable schadenfreude that Jim Messina’s candidate got taken down, since Messina was Obama’s 2012 campaign manager and White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, 2009-2011. Revenge is a dish best served cold.

        1. TheCatSaid

          Thanks for finding those links so fast. IIRC I came across one of them from the links here at NC.

      1. dk

        I can’t help seeing the entire as some consultants cooking up a little business and recoup a bit on their data investments, try out some models, blah blah. They find a projection for a “safe” race and pitch to the mark party or candidate, or sometimes to donors who in turn promote the plan to a candidate.


        “It defies logic,” asserts Nancy Todd, president of the International Association of Political Consultants, “to hire, as your lead strategists to defend Brexit, the same consultants who ran the losing side of the 2016 EU referendum to defeat Brexit.” But May has done just that. Running the Tory campaign, among others are Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina, whose former employer, David Cameron, was forced to resign as prime minister after losing the 2016 Brexit vote.

        Crosby, a transplanted Australia political consultant, has had a strong influence on the U.K. Conservative party since 2005. Messina served as President Obama’s 2012 campaign manager and worked in the White House, too. Like many American consultants, they understand the strength of online media and targeting voters via digital data. But strong evidence shows that their overdependence on social media is their Achilles’ heel. “It was a key misstep in Cameron’s EU referendum defeat, and it could be a major factor in next month’s elections if the Conservatives fail to pull out a major victory,” stated Bob Heckman, a senior consultant on six U.S. presidential campaigns.

        1. MoiAussie

          What does it tell us that an Obama campaign manager was trying to ensure a Tory win? About Obama and the Dems, I mean, obviously Messina is a man of easy virtue.
          Crosby OTOH is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative.

          1. Colonel Smithers

            Thank you, Aussie.

            Can a petition be organised to have Crosby deported?

            One of his assistants is one of the sons of a former boss of mine, Angela Knight.

            1. MoiAussie

              I’m sure an investigation down under into the shady world of Liberal Party funding could find some Crosby crimes. We could then apply to have him extradited, if he doesn’t flee to the US first.

            2. The Rev Kev

              As an Aussie, may I suggest that he be “transported” instead? Revive a grand old tradition.

      2. Redlife2017

        I don’t have link, but was actually at some training in London given by Momentum for GOTV. They had 2 Bernie dudes running it. Lots of Bernie people running around and giving really good advice. I was very impressed by Momentum and their linking in of the Bernie people.

        Also, I was doing GOTV yesterday and went to Westminster North. They had to turn away volunteers because there were too many. It was a struggle to find a marginal to go to. This really is just the beginning.

  22. Ian

    A query. Their seems to be quite a few labour seat losses and gains in some areas. I am wondering if the labour losses and gains who they represent in regards to the Corbyn wing or the Blairite wing.

    1. Strategist

      I have no idea yet what the balance of the new Parliamentary Labour Party is in terms of Blairite-v-Corbynite. But I think the pattern in England has been broadly, the more studenty and Bremain the location, the better Labour has done. The more oldie & Brexit the location, the less well Labour has done – but still, amazingly well compared to expectations. Hence huge swings in London and university towns eg Canterbury; less so in the English rustbelt.

    2. makedoanmend

      Tories had 331 seats and will have about 317-318 now.

      Labour had 232 seats and will have about 261 – 262 now.

      Labour only lost five “swing” seats to the tories.

      The vast majority of the 172 MPs who tabled a vote of no confidence in Corbyn are therefore still in situ!

      (Hopefully, the 30+ new members are behind Corbyn, and I’d imagine some of the career Blairites are having a wee rethink this morning.)

      1. a different chris

        >imagine some of the career Blairites are having a wee rethink this morning.

        The whole essence of Blairism is to basically be a human weathervane so you don’t need to imagine it, it is certainly happening. There may be a few Third Way True Believers in the world, but they are rare and certainly don’t include people like Blair and Clinton.

    3. PlutoniumKun

      A lot of the weirdness at constituency level comes down to the collapse of UKIP and where their votes have gone. So far, I don’t see any pattern according to the wing of the Labour Party the MP belongs to. I doubt if most voters have a clue whether their local Labour MP is a Blairite or a Corbynite.

    4. Nell

      Don’t know for sure, but it is likely to be more Blairites as the Generaly Secretary (a blairite) directed resources at protecting right wing of Labour Party. We lost at least 5 key marginals with tiny majorities where Labour HQ resources were low relative to safer seats of standing blairite MPs. It is unlikely that this will be pursued as Labour are going for the ‘united front’ approach (good politics) for now.
      Source: https://skwawkbox.org/2017/06/10/excl-labour-hq-defunded-marginals-corbyn-achieved-this-despite-them-ge17/
      Not sure about quality of source.

  23. LT

    It’s being called a “hung parliament.”
    So the Labour party has won enough to get the blame for the Brexit pain to come (EU still has their knives out for the UK and won’t soften a bit), but not enough to have a mandate for change.

    1. MoiAussie

      That’s arse about. The Tories have just won enough to get the blame for the Brexit pain to come, but may now try and back out of Brexit. They have no mandate for anything. Labour, despite losing, has a mandate, a big tick of approval for their policies.

      1. relstprof

        Yep. Corbyn losing/winning adds attention to the policies he ran on. And advancing gains traction. If nothing else, it makes Corbyn’s 2 party election wins for leadership a ratification for that politics within Labour.

        1. LT

          The attention is going to be on Parliament intrigues and personalities more than policy…watch.

      2. LT

        The Tories still have enough to dampen those plans.
        And the spin will be to blame Labour..watch.

        1. MoiAussie

          In your comments here it is very clear that you are part of the spin to blame Labour. You have predicted they will impose austerity, shift to the right, get blamed for Brexit, etc. You’re way off target.

          1. LT

            I understand your enthusiasm for Corbyn, but they didn’t elect 300 Corbyns. Times like these may just need somthing as drastic as that? I could be saying that.

          2. LT

            No, that’s your interpretration. If anything should have been learned these last few years it’s that electoral politics haven’t dampered the drive for austerity and it’s due to how times of crisis are managed.
            Those are the things Labour needs to be on the lookout for befor they count their chickens.

        1. vlade

          It was a very clear rejection of hard brexit, sorry mate.

          UKIP got steamrolled, and May, who went for the hard brexit, and for the “no deal better than bad deal” got steamrolled too.

          Even some Tories like Ken Clarke – who voted AGAINST A50 got back in, as did all the Tories who absteined and stood again (=all but two).

          So there’s no mandate for hard brexit anymore

    2. makedoanmend

      Labour didn’t call the “snap” election. The Tories did. The people voted and this is the result. If blame is to be apportioned then the blame rests with the electorate. Bad electorate.

      Or maybe blame rests with a party that had a parliamentary majority but thought it would be ever so clever and try and destroy the opposition once and for all.

        1. makedoanmend

          Plenty of bookie shops around.

          Labour manifesto:


          Point out the Labour/Corbyn austerity bits for us.

          Nationalising the rails?
          Maintaining and improving the NHS?
          Building social housing?
          Education – more FE, apprenticeships and?

          “Labour will reintroduce maintenance grants for university students, and we will abolish university tuition fees.

          University tuition is free in many northern European countries, and under a Labour government it will be free here too.”

          1. LT

            Austerity thrives on crisis. UK is in crisis.
            They may get the university cookies…that’s it.
            The global bankstas are playing for all the marbles, not share them.

            1. makedoanmend

              Labour did not win a majority nor are there enough like mined MPs from other parties with which they could form a coalition. Therefore, they cannot implement their manifesto in part or in whole.

          2. LT

            And the university wish list is just the kind of thing they’ll go to bat for over social housing…
            Nothing is being nationalized until bankstas get tamed, and they are far from having enough folks in Parliament ready to do that.

            1. makedoanmend

              Do you live in the UK? Tuition fee are a relatively recent introduction. People can still remember living without education debt.

              I believe banks existed in the UK when many industries were nationalised previously.

              Your belief in banker authority and power is rather fascinating.

      1. Ian

        The electorate failed the party, the party never fails. Have we not learned anything from Clinton?

  24. JustAnObserver

    And, of course, its another black eye for the polling organisations … along with a couple of smashed teeth and a broken nose. Even in the last few days there were fairly consistent predictions of a 50-100 seat Tory win with at least one going into the 120s; YouGov excepted of course.

    Put this down to their models being unable to account for

    (a) High turnout, ust short of 70% ?
    I’ve seen at least one comment from the Labour side that they registered 4M people during the campaign. Even if this is an exaggeration it shows the effort that the Corbyn crew put into this campaign. And then getting 8000 volunteers to knock on doors on election day to get people to actually vote.

    (b) Very high “youth” vote ? I’d have loved to be called “youth” @34 :-).
    A feeling that “we f****d up last time by being to lazy to vote”. Won’t get fooled again, as The Who once had it.

    (c ) A long standing British dislike of “snap” elections held purely for party advantage ? Along with a belief that it was being used not for Brexit authority but, instead, to ram yet more neolib austerity down the populace’s throats.

    1. LT

      They haven’t shaken off the neolib austerity. Haven’t what is called left parties in Europe passed austerity? Hollande in France was “socialist” and the “socialists” in Greece didn’t hold it at bay.
      It’s a hung Parliament…the kind of set up that tends to compromise the left to the right.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          If you think the UK is not making a large exit payment you are smoking something very strong. The EU among other things can refuse to give any flights leaving Heathrow landing rights and even transit over EU airspace. That alone gives it all the leverage it needs.

          1. The Rev Kev

            There will be a payment but it cannot be too large. Otherwise there will be blow-back. Here is just one possible scenario to illustrate my point-

            1. The EU gives the UK a colossal bill so that the EU can give itself goodies with.
            2. Britain pays but then announces that it cannot afford to keep its military on the European mainland nor undertake overseas operations anymore.
            3. The EU countries have to double their military budget as the UK use to make up a very large chunk of NATO.
            4.The US says that they are unsympathetic the the EU’s plight and insists that they buy more American weaponry to keep themselves ‘safe’ from Russia.
            4. The EU then has to make severe austerity cuts to finance the military expenditure with. Riots and political instability ensue.
            After that take your own guesses.

            1. PlutoniumKun

              I’m sorry, but that is just fantasy. The EU is not looking for money for ‘goodies’. The EU is seeking the money that the UK owes as part of its longstanding legal commitments. Remember, thanks to Thatchers ‘rebates’, the UK has always contributed less to the EU than other European countries when you adjust for wealth and population. There is simply no way the East European countries will accept any agreement which will result in them paying more, which is the reality of not collecting. The notion that somehow there is a pot of gold for the UK in refusing to pay contributions is simply a myth promoted by the UK. Anyway, non-EU countries such as Switzerland and Norway have to pay billions in contributions to access the EU market, thats just the accepted norm. The UK will have to pay to exit, there is simply no realistic alternative to that.

              The British army presence in Europe is negligible these days – just a few Battalions based in Germany which are already agreed to be phased out by 2020. Britains military leverage in Europe is precisely zero. And if the US insists on Europe buying American arms (which they already do, by muscling countries such as Belgium to buy useless F-35’s instead of Rafales or Eurofighters), then the UK, as a participant in most major European military programmes, stands to lose out just as much as the rest of Europe.

  25. Colonel Smithers

    @ Plutonium Kun: Can one wear kitten heels to march and thump a Lambeg down the Garvaghy Road and up to the church at Drumcree? Are there Apprentice Girls? Can someone have a word with Gearoid Adams and tell him that this is not 1917?

    1. PlutoniumKun

      Not kitten heels, but its widely rumoured there are more than a few tights and suspenders under those stern trousers. The Apprentice Girls are at home doing the washing up, as God meant it to be. Mr. Adams I think, is quite a happy man today.

    1. skippy

      The correct nomenclature is – commies – please desist in Bernays style re-tasking of important ideological perspectives as scapegoats too muddy the waters, purity and saying on message is critical to the cause [KISS -!!!!].

      disheveled…. this is your first and only warning.

      1. JustAnObserver

        I would not, normally, presume to take issue with your disheveledness but …

        It’s always “Godless commies” here in Rapture Ready Land.

        1. skippy

          Fun fact… why do so many think pork is so delicious… its the roasted demons inside…. chortle…

    2. darthbobber

      Its harder to make up those scenarios when a country votes by having people mark pieces of paper and put them in boxes. What a novel concept.

  26. ewmayer

    Professional political slimeball-weasel Nick Clegg’s quote in The Grauniad’s piece about the “oh,snap!” election is precious:

    The former Lib Dem leader and deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, spoke out about the need for the government to be sensitive about huge societal divisions as he was defeated by Labour in Sheffield Hallam.

    Funny how getting the boot makes useless eaters like Clegg suddenly sensitive to “huge societal divisions” and the suffering of Les Deplorables, innit?

  27. none

    Looks like Tories will end up with 318 or 319, still short of majority but outperforming the exit poll. Do they still have more routes open than they would have with 314?

    1. PlutoniumKun

      Not really. It all comes down to the 10 DUP MP’s, they hold the swing power whether its 314 or 322 seats.

      1. vlade

        TBH, there’s also Ken Clarke, and about dozen of other Tories who either abstained on A50 (7 of them IIRC, 5 stood again and were all re-elected). So the majority is going to be wafer-thin and extremely unstable given the internal dissentions in Tory party.

        It looks to me, like Labour may have finally sorted out its internal troubles (at least for a while), while Tory ones are just starting (to surface again).

      2. Clive

        Yep, with the DUP in tow, the Conservative government can survive a vote of no confidence. Key policy and legislative priorities can be gotten through parliament by making them no-confidence red lines. It’s pretty desperate stuff and very unedifying but it’s survival in power and government of a sort.

        Luckily Arlene Foster is such a measured, reasonable and conciliatory sort who wouldn’t dream of rubbing Republican noses in it, just because she can win petty Pyrric victories on divisive hot-button things like parades, the Irish language or flags.

        Oh, wait a minute…

      3. Adrian D.

        The DUP are indeed key to the Tories, but it’s worthe bearing in mind that they were formed essentially as the political-wing of the ‘Loyalist’ terrorists during the ‘troubles’ in Norther Ireland – terrorist who killed over 1,000 people during that time.

        As Craig Murray has just pointed out, they’re quite a nasty bunch of corrupt, homophobic, religious bigots – whose views might not so easily be hidden in the age of social media.

        1. vlade

          Do we get “May associated with DUP terrorists” headlines? To compensate for the IRA headlines about Corbyn?

        2. PlutoniumKun

          Its now official – May has done a deal with the DUP. The DUP have said they will support the Conservatives for as long as Corbyn is leader of Labour. Which is incredibly stupid of them, they’ve been handed the keys to the kingdom and they basically just handed them back to May.

          1. a different chris

            Well hating Corbyn is more important than representing your “views” (which are probably at best on a cribsheet in one of your secondary pockets) so why not. The people that voted for you will never notice, right?

            I can’t believe the children that the Western world has somehow elected.

          2. larry

            The deal is odd. It isn’t a coalition, so it doesn’t look as though they have quite handed the keys back to May.

  28. PlutoniumKun

    The other big news of the election, somewhat overlooked, is a genuine earthquake in Northern Ireland. The ‘moderate’ nationalist SDLP and the ‘moderate’ Unionist UUP and Alliance didn’t win a single seat. The total was 10 DUP, 7 Sinn Fein, and one independent Unionist.

    This completely pulls the rug out from under the Irish government, which has always maintained the fiction that there is a ‘moderate middle’ that can be negotiated with (giving them an excuse to ignore Sinn Fein and patronise the DUP). Sinn Fein are big winners from this, the DUP even more so.

    And now the bigger of the parties is the de facto kingmaker in London. The problem for the DUP is that the leadership are hard Brexiteers, while their on-the-ground supporters of small farmers and small businessmen are split – even the most die-hard Unionists in border areas know a closed border is an economic disaster for them.

    Northern Ireland is about to become the big Brexit battleground. It will dominate UK politics for the next 2 years at least.

    1. vlade

      NI after Brexit was always explosive, but now it’s a powder keg with the fuse going.

      TBH, I didn’t think DUP would have score so well, in fact I thought anti-hard brexit moderates would score better. Weird.

      1. PlutoniumKun

        From what I can gather, there is a lot of delusion among grassroots Unionists in the North that they can use Brexit to solidify the border without causing any economic damage. While many voted Remain, they don’t seem to have been motivated to use it as a reason not to vote for the DUP.

        Its gotta be remembered that so much reporting from Northern Ireland from the non-NI media likes to maintain the fiction that most people there are moderate, and only vote DUP or Sinn Fein for fear or old tribal loyalties or whatever. Hence all these lovely soft focus articles on ‘moderate’ nationalists and unionists and those lovely nice reasonable people of the Alliance party.

        The reality is that most Unionists vote DUP because they agree with DUP policies. And likewise with SF.

      2. Adrian D.

        I’m not sure describing the situation in Northern Ireland in those terms is entirely appropriate, but I take you point.

    2. windsock

      The irony is wonderful Cameron won the 2015 election on the back of fears that Labour would be propped up by a party whose Scottish interests would come first… Now the Tories will be propped up and UK policy will be determined by a sectarian group of the Irish, whose interests will come first. Priceless.

  29. Eustache de Saint Pierre

    Very pleased in terms of how the young have voted, as it is their future after all, & perhaps it is now looking a little brighter.

  30. Quentin

    Latest from London town: Tories and DUP form a majority. May soon scampers off to her immediate superior in the palace, the queen, and can them start her term as elected Prime Minister—Brexit rolls on with a vengeance.

    1. Eustache de Saint Pierre

      ” A hard rain’s gonna fall “, but I am still cautiously relieved it will happen on her watch….fingers crossed.

    2. allan

      DUP chief Arlene Foster met UDA boss days after loyalist murder in Bangor [Belfast Telegraph]

      Arlene Foster has defended meeting a UDA chief within 48 hours of the loyalist feud murder in Bangor of Colin Horner in front of his three-year-old son.

      The DUP leader yesterday admitted meeting UDA boss Jackie McDonald in south Belfast. The Ulster Political Research Group, which provides political advice to the UDA, yesterday endorsed the DUP’s Emma Little Pengelly for the South Belfast constituency.

      Mr McDonald also urged loyalists to support the DUP in the recent Assembly election, and praised Mrs Foster, saying her “experience and dedication has helped bring about stability and prosperity”. …

      Quite the choice for a coalition government.

    3. PlutoniumKun

      I’m actually astonished at the political ineptitude of the DUP. They don’t seem to have extracted any concessions from May at all. One DUP MP said that there was no question of supporting anyone but the Conservatives while Corbyn is leader of Labour.

      I thought they’d at least get one ministerial post and a new aircaft carrier built in Belfast, or at least some more expensive woodchip. But no, nothing. They’ve basically said they’ll support the Conservatives whatever happens.

  31. vlade

    From BBC:

    It may have been the Brexit election after all

    Labour has done well in seats that voted to Remain in the EU. The Toris have seen an uptick in seats that voted strongly to Leave, but far less than Labour’s gain.

    The swing to Labour in seats where Remain won over 55% in 2016 is averaging seven points, whereas there is a 1% swing to the Conservatives in seats where over 60% voted for Leave, according to Mr Curtice.

    That chimes with what Terry was saying for the last few days here. Terry – where are you? Come and gloat (deservedly so!)..

    1. purplepencils

      Now to see what May does with this. She’s certainly stuck between a rock and a hard place.

  32. Ignacio

    I have just read the editorial at EL PAIS (NYTish spanish newspaper) and it seems to me the outlet is submerged in horror for two reasons:
    1) Brexit chaos is predicted
    2) Corbyn consolidates as Labor party leader. They say nothing about blairites, but the newspaper has decididely been anti-Corbyn and pro-blairite.

    Quite interesting outcome. I see two tendencies slowly developing. First, in the UE it is aknowledged that EU construction has its flaws (although not “too” publicly). Socialists around Europe are abandoning neoliberalism at an increasing pace.

    1. PlutoniumKun

      I’ve seen that Podemos and the Greek government have sent congratulations to Corbyn. I think they (rightly) see this as the start of a real left fightback.

      1. Eustache de Saint Pierre

        PK, once again thank you for the usual in depth analysis. I have been doing a bit of reading up on the delightful Arlene, who it seems is for a soft Brexit, against a hard border & austerity measures – perhaps you could comment on that.

  33. aliteralmind

    Serious question: How is it possible that the powerless have a chance to win it all? Clearly they have to super-really-mega perform (energize the voters etc.) in order to even jolt the system as was done last night. The fact that Bernie reached 46% with all of the corruption and forces stacked against him, is also a miracle.

    So why don’t the powerful just finish the job already and make it truly impossible for the powerless to get what they want? Perhaps they are in the process of doing exactly that.

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      The powerful are only as powerful as the loyalty from the police. At some point, police recognize they can cut out the middleman. The police don’t need Bill Gates. Bill Gates needs the police. The Hamptons can’t be defended.

      If they go to far, there will be a reaction. Also, many of the powerful don’t grasp the brown nosers aren’t representative of the population. They actually believe they are beloved.

      The Saudis are keeping the army far away from Riyadh for a reason.

      1. JustAnObserver

        The Roman Republic also had a rule whereby all legions had to disband when they crossed the border into Rome proper or face charges of treason.

        One of the pieces of that border was a small river called the Rubicon.

      2. aliteralmind

        Like slow boiling a frog.

        And I guess that if they do go too far, such as with NoDAPL, they just have to give the cops a cut of the action.

  34. Christopher (Dale) Rogers

    First some interesting comments on this thread, some of which are highly inaccurate, but make good reading nonetheless.

    For the record, this Poster has not contributed to these boards for a while due to the fact he’s been active in protecting Jeremy Corbyn’s back since he was elected leader of Labour in September 2015, and, unlike many here, was actually active on the ground & social media during the UK election process – in my instance, I campaigned in South Wales outside of the Labour Party – I was BANNED from the Party in September 2016 by the NEC and Mr McNicol for my pro-Corbyn views & actions undertaken in fighting for Corbyn.

    To the election itself, bluntly folks I shocked, stunned and elated. Never, never in my wildest dream did i think UK Labour would take more than 40% of the vote & win seats in areas that have been Tory for 100 years – take note, Tory for 100 years!

    In my own next of the woods, the South Wales Valley’s, which voted by a majority yo exit the EU, voted overwhelmingly in favour of Corbyn and Tory representation in Wales was cut by three seats – the reverse happened in Scotland I’m afraid!

    An important observation, in Wales the Labour Party machine has been opposed to Corbyn, Carwyn Jones, the Welsh Assembly First Minister, ensuring that no mention of Corbyn was made during the campaign & distanced himself completely from Corbyn & the Corbyn machine. I will also add that the vast bulk of Welsh Labour MPs have been open opponents of Corbyn – their position within their respective CLPs are now weak & many would be deselected if a vote were undertaken – essentially the CLPs were in the Corbyn camp.

    Fact, Corbyn after this historic result is now untouchable as Party leader, our elected PLP must fall in line behind Corbyn of face being deselected by the CLPs or ejected from the Party.

    One more prediction, given Ms May, the hypocrite that she is, is now reliant on the support of a known Terrorist organisation, namely the NI DUP, is the reality that within 12 months Jeremy Corbyn will be the UKs next PM, this will happen either in October this year or the second quarter 2018 – peeps need to keep an eye on the Tory 1922 Committee.

    The above is based on this fact, May campaigned on a platform of ‘Strong & Stable’ and warned repeatedly against ‘Coalitions of Chaos.’ Further, she is on the record as stating she’d resign if she did not gain a majority – well, she’s not resigned, she’s in a ‘coalition of chaos’ and she’s alienated many Tory voters by holding hands with the DUP – see Manchester Terrorism attacks & London attacks.

    Personally speaking, given the unprecedented Labour gains & fact that Corbyn is the undisputed leader of Labour I’m a happy camper – that I and 100s of 1000s made this possible give me great pleasure – the next game changer is to push heterodox economic knowledge and ensure an end to neoliberalism within the UK.

    1. Anonymous2

      And thank you, Yves, for hosting this discussion.

      Where is Terry? He really should take a bow. Superlative contributions from him in recent days, I thought. And many illuminating comments from others.

    2. Clive

      Thank-you Christopher for all the work you’ve put in on the ground and in the party. I’d disagree about Corbyn being PM in a year but then I’ve only been a member since Corbyn became a leadership of the party candidate so I lack your experience in these matters.

      The other reason for my reticence is that unless the left here is 100% able to “walk and chew gum” (be both competent in administrative and governmental abilities as well as winning the ideological battle) and victory will soon set the left back another decade if we have Trump-esque maladministration which the Daily Mail will happily throw back in our faces. Like it or lump it, Corbyn’s Labour needs to strengthen party discipline and the shadow ministerial team. This will come in time. But it’s not quite there yet.

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