Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Moving onto Republican Turf)

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35 comments

1. allan April 16, 2018 at 9:54 pm

   Thank you for doing what must be an incredibly tedious task.

   Honest question: How does one decide what is real #MedicareForAll?
   Some issues pages say “path to universal coverage” or “strengthen ACA”, so it’s clear that they’re waffling,
   but one of the candidates you identify as being in favor of #MedicareForAll says this on their site:

   I will fight back against any attempt to decrease coverage or increase premiums, and I’ll never vote to give a trillion-dollar tax break to billionaires and bankers at the expense of the most vulnerable people in our community.

   The reference to “fighting back against” increasing premiums sure makes it sound like commercial insurance companies will still be in the picture. That’s a lot less than an outright endorsement of H.R. 676 or some other concrete proposal for single payer.
   1. Utah April 16, 2018 at 11:01 pm

      My experience is that “Medicare-for-All” is a purposeful statement that shows what side of the Dem Aisle you’re standing on. Everything else is sketchy to me.
      I read “universal access to affordable healthcare” the other day and wondered what that meant. It’s like saying both things at once. Pretty clever obfuscating! Thanks to NC, “Access to healthcare” is on my radar as words that mean nothing.
      1. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 17, 2018 at 1:27 am

         > universal access to affordable healthcare

         It doesn’t mean anything. Democrats kept calling ObamaCare “universal” long after it was obvious that it wasn’t.

         Nobody who uses verbiage like that gets credit. See my next comment.

         Adding, I don’t really find it tedious, because the people, or the self-presentations of the people, or both, are so interesting. And I like inventing taxonomies, and testing them out. What bugs me is that it’s hard to know the scope of the work going in. I’ll be knocking out onesies and twosies in Iowa, and suddenly a mob of Californians or Pennsylvanians crowds its way in. But as I keep saying, what an enormous country the United States is.
         1. False Solace April 17, 2018 at 1:11 pm

            That verbiage — “access to” “affordable” care — makes my blood boil.

            As parents and citizens, would we accept “access to affordable” elementary school for our kids?

            No! Because it’s obvious crazy talk. It spreads a poisonous unexamined idea that health care is something people should worry about “affording”. Yet politicians repeat that phrase over and over like we should applaud them for saying it. No! It’s obvious crazy talk and we should call them on it every time. We send kids to school in our communities without making their parents worry about how to pay for it. Health care should not be any different.
            1. Arizona Slim April 17, 2018 at 1:31 pm

               Me? I want “access to affordable” libraries! And “access to affordable” roads!

               Okay, enough outta me. Better shut that sarcasm machine off.
   2. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 17, 2018 at 1:26 am

      I code for “Medicare For All” when they use that actual phrase, best of all when combined with “single payer.”

      And I’m glad you asked, because I forgot to say, in the post and the Legend, that I adopted “fM” for faux or fake Medicare, and found with great pleasure that the first person I tagged with it was Randy Byrce (because I start from the end of the alphabet, WI, and work down. Bryce clearly used the phrase but at the very, very best had something like Medicare Extra in mind. Kentucky, IIRC, had two cases of the “Medicare for All would be the best, but wheeze, and neither got credit.

      There are judgment calls:

      1) When the candidates are confused about the policy; I try to err on the side of caution

      2) The whole “glidepath” argument; these are steps towards Medicare for All. Here, I try to evaluate sincerity, since in a Civics 101 world that makes sense. If they use Democrats buzzwords like “access” I don’t give them credit. If they seem to have thought it out for themselves, I consider it.

      And of course there are coding errors!! For which candidate did you find my coding problematic?
      1. aliteralmind April 17, 2018 at 8:08 am

         Randy Bryce wants a special kind of Medicare for All:

         “Pass Medicare for All…. Medicare for All would lower costs for families and businesses by giving the government greater negotiating power with health insurance companies and untying health insurance from employment.“

         From https://www.randybryceforcongress.com/economic-plan/
         1. aliteralmind April 17, 2018 at 8:11 am

            NJ-3 Dem Andy Kim most definitely does not want Medicare for All:

            “Get Everyone Covered. Our country, our economy, our security will be stronger when our people are healthier. Having millions of people without health insurance raises the costs for all of us. We need to ensure everyone, rich or poor, has access to quality affordable healthcare. This is our new moonshot, and we can save countless lives in the process.”

            From https://andykimforcongress.com/blog/issue/forthepeople/
      2. Darius April 17, 2018 at 10:04 am

         The glide path is a Democratic Congress and President. Pass M4A with budget reconciliation. Boom. Done. If they don’t deliver, revolution.
2. ArcadiaMommy April 16, 2018 at 10:40 pm

   Thank you, this looks interesting. Any chance we could get this in a downloadable spreadsheet format? I would like to run this by my husband as he is in the loop with politics in several states and make notes based on his info.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 17, 2018 at 1:28 am

      I’ve thought about that. Let me see.
3. UserFriendly April 17, 2018 at 3:41 am

   I am getting soooo fed up with skynet latly. it has got to be turned up to 120 or something becuse it keeps snagging the most innocuous comments and not even putting them into moderation. And only when it’s a long comment that I didn’t copy first, which I do at least 60% of the time. Maybe I’ll try again tomorrow after some sleep.

   p.s. Dems need 23 to take the chamber after connor lamb.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 17, 2018 at 6:37 am

      But Conor Lamb has to win again, does he not? Or am I showing why they wouldn’t let me help with the shipping again? (“He can’t count!”)
      1. UserFriendly April 17, 2018 at 10:54 am

         lol, yes he does need to win again, but they still need to net 23 more seats. They could lose his seat MN-1 and MN-8 then they would need to flip 26 GOP seats for a net of 23 ;-).
         1. Lambert Strether Post authorApril 17, 2018 at 12:35 pm

            You’re right, and the current Inside Elections has that number too.
4. Northeaster April 17, 2018 at 6:45 am

   Medicare for All won’t do shit until the legalized monopoly statuses of the entire healthcare industry are broken. Those corps, especially Big Pharma, won’t let that happen (they passed Wall Street in donations/lobbying). Being a Democrat won’t matter, especially if the Speaker is a career crony who will NEVER let a Bill like that come to the floor for a vote in the first place. Finally, as The Vining Case shows, COngress Members, staff, and family members don’t eat their cooking when it comes to healthcare/Obamacare (h/t OPM). Sounds like a nice campaign slogan to get elected though.

   Meanwhile, I hope The House does go Democrat, but not a super-majority in Congress. This way, neither Party can pass anything else to screw us…Although, #Bailouts were done in a bi-partisan fashion.
5. Steve from CT April 17, 2018 at 8:52 am

   Lambert, a suggestion for consideration to be included would be the CT 5th District now held by Democrat Elizabeth Esty. She did a really dumb move with her former chief of staff so she is not running again. At present their is no clear Dem favorite for this seat and the Repubs have a credible candidate. Right now some are calling this seat a toss-up. It has been Repub in the past and Esty’s behavior could influence who wins this seat.
6. HotFlash April 17, 2018 at 9:52 am

   Hi Lambert, that’s whole lot of work, hope you are taking a well-deserved victory nap. Your M/fM detective work is a great contribution to an informed electorate. Thank you.

   Proofreader hat on: the Farouz Saad link should be https://www.fayrouzsaad.com
   (currently links back to this page)
7. DonCoyote April 17, 2018 at 10:02 am

   AZ-02 Ann Kirkpatrick’s name is not linked to her website, https://www.kirkpatrickforcongress.com/.

   I’m also going to dispute that she is a #MedicareForAll supporter. From her website, above, under Health Care: “Ann supports expanding the eligibility for individuals to buy into Medicare and believes it’s time for a public option, especially in counties where there is only one health insurance option available over the exchanges. Finally, she believes we must give Medicare the power to negotiate drug prices to reduce costs for our seniors.” So I’m not seeing it there, or in any story on her. Quite the opposite, in fact:

   …she made sure to state emphatically that “I do not support single payer health care. And I do not support Medicare for All,” claiming it is too expensive. Of course that was met by 400 blank stares from the perplexed audience of mostly progressive Democrats. She then described a Medicare buy in plan– stolen almost word-for word from other Democratic candidates– which is an expansion of an existing single payer system.

   I may dispute Myers, WI-01 as well, but let me go do a little more research…
   1. DonCoyote April 17, 2018 at 11:02 am

      OK, I was mixed up on WI-01, Myers, she is pretty unambiguously #MedicareForAll (Full disclosure: I donated to Randy Bryce, one of her primary opponents). Randy has said in several venues that he is for #MedicareForAll, but I agree his website and some of his statements don’t seem straightforward/wholehearted on the issue. Given that Ryan has dropped out, I’d like to see a debate between Myers and Bryce (He claims he’s willing to debate, she claims he isn’t).

      Now, NJ-11, Mikie Sherrill, the other supposed DCCC/#MedicareForAll candidate, say this on her website:

      Healthcare should be a right and not a luxury, and we can do more to bring down costs and make sure every American has access to affordable healthcare coverage.

      First, we need to stabilize the healthcare marketplace. Congressman Frelinghuysen and the House Appropriations Committee have had more than seven years to make sure the cost sharing reductions were funded. Now, Congressman Frelinghuysen and President Trump are sabotaging the healthcare marketplace to score political points with their supporters. It is time for Washington to stop playing politics with our health care. We need to roll up our sleeves and start fixing our healthcare system. Let’s allow Medicare to leverage its buying power to negotiate lower drug prices – it works for the VA and it will help bring down costs for our seniors. And instead of the Frelinghuysen Age Tax, let’s find a fiscally responsible way to allow certain individuals older than 55 the option of buying into Medicare.

      So that starts promising but does not seem like #MedicareForAll to me (#HealthInsuranceForAll at best).

      {Starting 5:30 in, in response to a question if she was for #MedicareForAll} “I’m for quality and affordable healthcare for each and every person in this country. I don’t think there’e one way to get to that, but I think we have to make sure we’re moving towards that.” IMO, so close and yet so far.
   2. 1enoz April 17, 2018 at 11:45 am

      I also read about AZ district 8 starting to look like a possibility of going R to D with Hiral Tipirneni challenging the incumbent. On her website she calls for “expanding Medicare” as well as strengthening some provisions of the ACA.
      What are the chances of a call for Medicare For All becoming the prarie fire that will push Dem hopefulls away from organised (gangster) medicine?
      1. DonCoyote April 17, 2018 at 2:09 pm

         Note that this is a special election (next week, 4/24), to replace Trent Franks.

         The election has attracted outside money on both sides. IMO, Hiral is running on a Conor Lamb/blue dog platform, and she is not supporting #MedicareForAll. So a win/loss for her is not a win/loss for M4A. Nor is it a win/loss that can be counted toward/against a 2019 D house majority, since they will have to do it again in November.
   3. DonCoyote April 18, 2018 at 9:59 am

      Story from yesterday on AZ-02 Kirkpatrick:

      Some Democrats support “Medicare for all,” but she sees a flaw in the approach because it relieves corporations of providing healthcare for their employees and puts the burden on taxpayers. She noted that most people — 140 million Americans — get health insurance through their employment. “Why give the corporations a break for healthcare when they are already providing it for their employees?” she says. “The corporations just got their tax cuts, let them pay for health care for their employees.”

      So I would say that’s a pretty emphatic NO to #MedicareForAll from Kirkpatrick. But hey, raising lots of money and DCCC endorsed = ka-ching for the Dem consultants.
8. Darius April 17, 2018 at 10:07 am

   I’m sorry but I don’t get most of the abbreviated labels.
   1. DonCoyote April 17, 2018 at 11:15 am

      Lambert forgot to repost his key (see also):

      Biography: m, i, l, o (“MILO”) Military,Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Other); s,h, e (“SHE”) Science, Health, Education

      Backers: BN, EL, IN, JD, OR; DCCC; DP; S: Brand New Congress,Emily’s List, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution; DCCC; Demo
      1. Darius April 17, 2018 at 11:59 am

         Many thanks.
9. Leftcoastindie April 17, 2018 at 11:22 am

   Not so sure about Sara Jacobs in CA-49. This is her medicare for all statement on healthcare from her website.
   Too much wiggle room in there to say she supports Medicare for All. Maybe in 20 years…

   t;

   Health care is a fundamental human right and we need to do everything we can to get to universal coverage. It’s an embarrassment that here in the United States we still don’t guarantee health care to all our people. Having travelled to many other countries, I’ve seen first-hand how universal coverage is an achievable goal, especially for the wealthiest country in the world. Many examples across the world show that a strong public role in health care can provide affordable, universal coverage, and as such, I would vote for Medicare for All.

   Looking ahead, I’ll work to find smart ways to implement and manage the transition to a public program, and I support letting Americans buy in to Medicare and Medicaid, and a strong public option, as first steps of a transition.
   Sara Jacobs for Congress

   ” bold is mine
   1. DonCoyote April 17, 2018 at 11:42 am

      Well…I’d probably give her credit. “…transition to a public program” is essentially single payer. She’s not for #MedicareForAll #WhenDoWeWantIt_Now, but most of the people who have studied the issue admit there will have to be a transitional period, and have mentioned the steps to get there that she does.

      But Lambert said he was conservative on this determination, so I’m curious to here what he has to say about Sara.
10. UserFriendly Post authorApril 17, 2018 at 12:36 pm

    Here goes….. Updates you might want to add.
    MN-1 Johnny Akzam – Also supports MMT. I have had several conversations with him and he is a great guy and a good fit for the district but will have no shot because literally everyone is against him. There is a strong chance he runs 3rd party though because of how mistreated he feels by the DFL.

    This last weekend we had at least some congressional district level caucuses smack in the middle of a 2 foot blizzard. I had no intention of going to mine, not that Ellison was in any danger; but I had plans and spent an hour shoveling out and still couldn’t go anywhere cause it was that bad. (Yes, most people in MN can handle driving in snow pretty well but this was BAD).

    The only CD’s that made the news were:
    MN-2 DFL Endorsed corporate sock puppet and former GOP bundler Angie Craig.
    MN-3 DFL Endorse rich businessman Dean Phillips who uses weasel words on M4A and has said: “I’m fiscally responsible, and I’m socially inclusive, and I’m independent… I’m not a typical Democrat.” AKA exactly a typical democrat.
    MN-8: After 10 rounds of balloting neither of the top two remaining (Leah Phifer or Joe Radinovich) had enough to get the party endorsement. Michelle Lee and the top two will go on to the primary in August. Jason Metsa and Kirsten Kennedy called it quits.

    I haven’t heard anything about the other CD’s but I wouldn’t expect to for MN-4 MN-5 (very safe D seats), MN-7 (GOP leaning but held by a blue dog dem who will absolutely win again) or MN-6 (Very safe GOP).
    Which leaves the toss up district MN-1 with no news, but that is also a large ruralish district that was in the part of the state hit hardest by the blizzard, so maybe they postponed it.

    The caucus process here is non binding. If you don’t win it (or no one does) you can still head to the binding August primary. We also do have a history of ignoring the caucus endorsements in the primary. IIRC current gov Dayton and Tim Pawlenty (first time around and this time too) didn’t get the endorsement but won the primary anyways. However, both had much higher name ID so it was less of a battle.
    1. UserFriendly April 20, 2018 at 1:28 pm

       MN-01 didn’t have their convention last weekend, it’s this weekend. It got coverage and had most of the candidates views on healthcare. It also took a couple digs at our MILO carpetbagger favored by national dems I’m sure.
       https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/04/20/democrats-endorsement-convention-run-tim-walz-congress
11. DonCoyote April 17, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    NJ-11 candidate Mark Washburne name is not linked to his website: https://washburneforcongress.com/

    The story his name *is* linked to does have him supporting #MedicareForAll; his website has poor design and rambling delivery, but here is paragraph 19 of his Healthcare where he finally gets to the point: “Given all these problems with employer-based healthcare, I would be in favor of gradually – not tomorrow but over time – moving our country towards a Medicare for all type system.”

    The incumbent Republican, Frelinghuysen, had the seat for 24 years (with very little Demo opposition during that time, including 2006; Michael Moore was trying to run a ficus tree against him in 2000 to show how safe his seat was), and apparently hasn’t had a town hall for the last 6 of them. Frelinghuysen is chairman of the House Appropriations committee and even early in 2018 was saying he wasn’t going to retire (and has >$1 mill cash on hand from fundraising).
12. DonCoyote April 17, 2018 at 1:32 pm

    As others have noted, many thanks for a monumental task. My notes are to try and make it better, not to criticize…

    AZ-02 Billy Kovacs name does not link to his website: https://www.kovacsforcongress.com/ (At least I’m assuming you want to link their name to their website, so apologies if that was not the point. The story linked to for Billy Kovacs does not have anything for or against #MedicareForAll that I saw, but I’m one for primary sources when available).

    And I would say his website is fairly unambiguous on #MedicareForAll: “Health care is a human right. Not a privilege. I believe that all Americans should have health insurance coverage. We need a health care system that puts people and positive outcomes before profits. That is why I support a Medicare for All.” (Not sure what the “a” is about).
13. Adam Eran April 18, 2018 at 4:24 pm

    Where’s CA-04? Not a candidate to flip?
    1. DonCoyote April 18, 2018 at 5:26 pm

       Even though Lambert says he expanded to Lean-R and Likely-R at the top, I’m pretty sure he meant Lean-R and Likely-D, since I don’t see any Likely-R’s on his list.

       Cook’s Political Report has CA-04 as a Likely-R (even blue California has red seats). if the Dems do manage to capture any Likely-R seats in November, that would be the sign of a “Blue Wave” indeed.

       Roza Calderon is one of the Dem primary opponents CA-04, who is solidly behind #MedicareForAll and Justice Democrat endorsed.

       If you live there and/or know something about the race, please feel free to share.
14. DonCoyote April 19, 2018 at 4:57 pm

    Lambert,

    Where did you get your DCCC endorsements? I’m looking at The DCCC “Red to Blue” page, which seems like at least one channel for their endorsement (or did you look at $$)? They have candidates on their list that you have on yours, but don’t have a DCCC next to them (e.g. Gil Cisneros, CA-39; Tom Malinowski, NJ-07)

    They have 38 candidates on that list, 20 of which you have on yours. You say the DCCC hasn’t outright banned #MedicareForAll, but I looked closely at your two and I have doubts, to say the least. Now I’m looking at some of the others.

    Check out Clarke Tucker, AR-02, and his five health care bullets:

    Protect Universal Access to Healthcare
    Lower prescription drug prices by allowing the federal government to negotiate good deals for healthcare consumers.
    Improve the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by stabilizing the insurance exchange markets.
    Incentivize insurers to participate in the exchanges, especially in rural and underserved areas.
    Achieve universal healthcare coverage to ensure everyone is able to see a provider so our families can receive the best and most efficient care possible.

    Shouldn’t #5 be #1 (why are we protecting it if we don’t have it yet?) And IMO #MedicareForAll isn’t there.

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