Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Moving onto Republican Turf)

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, as you can see, I have expanded Table I to include districts that are Leaning R and Likely R (as before, I used the latest version of the Inside Elections handicapping table). There are now 40 districts and 209 challengers covered, however minimally, at this point. (Here let me pause to thank, once again, the readers who helped me with SQL; this table would have been impossible to construct in a spreadsheet, let alone in an HTML editor, and even if constructed, it would have been impossible to maintain.)

I don’t really have the energy for a lot of exposition; suffice to say that I added additional bio, backing, and policy (that is, #MedicareForAll support) to the new challengers, and that’s it; I didn’t have time to add Notes about individual races, which is a shame because I really enjoy that. (“What is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections of human nature?” as Madison asks in Federalist 51.)

So here is the latest version; the bottom-line minded can just skip to the results below the legend.

Table 1: Worksheet on House Races, Election 2018 (2018-04-16).

District Party Status Incumbent Horse-race Challengers
AZ-01 D O’Halleran Tilt-D Miguel Olivas [DP]
AZ-02 R Open McSally Tilt-D William Foster , Matt Heinz [DP; h], Ann Kirkpatrick (more, more) [EL, DCCC, DP][M], Billy Kovacs , Mary Matiella (more) [JD; m][M], Barbara Sherry (more) , Bruce Wheeler (more) [DP][M], Yahya Yuksel [DP][M]
CA-07 D Bera Likely-D [No challenger]
CA-10 R Denham Tilt-R Mike Barkley [DP; m][M], Michael Eggman , Josh Harder [e][M], Virginia Madueno [fM], Dotty Nygard [M], Sue Zwahlen
CA-25 R Knight Tilt-R Bryan Caforio [M], Katie Hill [fM], Mary Pallant (more) , Jess Phoenix
CA-39 R Open Royce Toss-Up Gil Cisneros (more; more) [m], Sam Jammal (more) [DP][M], Suzi Park Leggett [DP], Ted Rusk , Cybil Steed (more) [e], Andy Thorburn (more) [OR; e][M], Mai Khanh Tran (more, more) [EL; h]
CA-45 R Walters Tilt-R Brian Forde [DP; s], John Graham , Kia Hamadanchy [M], Dave Min (CAP.) , Katie Porter [M]
CA-48 R Rohrabacher Tilt-R Hans Keirstead [h][fM], Rachel Payne (Googler; more) [EL; s], Harley Rouda , Deanie Schaarsmith , Omar Siddiqui [in][fM], Tony Zarkades [m][M]
CA-49 R Open Issa Toss-Up Douglas Applegate [JD; m][M], Sara Jacobs (more) [EL, DP][M], Paul Kerr (more ) [m][M], Mike Levin (more) [DP][M]
CO-06 R Coffman Tilt-R Jason Crow [DCCC, DP; m], Erik Stanger [M], Levi Tillemann [M]
FL-07 D Murphy Lean-D Chardo Richardson [BN, JD; m][M]
FL-13 D Crist Likely-D [No challenger]
FL-26 R Curbelo Tilt-R Demetries Grimes [m], Ricky Junquera (more) , Steven Machat [M], Debbie Mucarsel-Powell , Steve Smith [m]
FL-27 R Open Ros-Lehtinen Lean-D Mary Barzee Flores [EL], Kristen Rosen Gonzalez (more) [DP; e], Matt Haggman , Michael Hepburn (more) [JD; e], Mark Anthony Person , David Richardson (more, more) [DP][M], Jose Javier Rodriguez (more) [DP], Ken Russell [DP], Donna Shalala (more; more) [DP]
IA-01 R Blum Tilt-R Abby Finkenauer , Thomas Heckroth , George Ramsey [m, l], Courtney Rowe [JD; m][M]
IL-06 R Roskam Tilt-R Becky Anderson (Becky Anderson) , Sean Casten (more) [fM], Carole Cheney , Amanda Howland [DP; e], Ryan Huffman [M], Kelly Mazeski (“A Medicare-for-all public option.”) [fM], Becky Anderson Wilkins (more) , Becky Anderson Wilkins (more) , Jennifer Zordani
IL-12 R Bost Tilt-R David Bequette [m], Brendan Kelly (more) [DCCC; m, in, l]
KS-02 R Open Jenkins Tilt-R Paul Davis , Nathan Schmidt (more)
KS-03 R Yoder Tilt-R Sharice Davids (more) , Reggie Marselus , Mike McCamon (“Create a single-payer Option”) [s], Tom Niermann [e], Jay Sidie, Brent Welder [M], Sylvia Williams
KY-06 R Barr Tilt-R Jim Gray (more) , Theodore Green , Daniel Kemph , Amy McGrath [DP; m], Reggie Thomas [DP; e], Geoff Young (perennial candidate)
MI-08 R Bishop Tilt-R Elissa Slotkin (Money race; “the real deal”; Biden endorses.) [EL, DCCC, DP; m, in][fM], Chris Smith
MI-11 R Open Trott Tilt-R Tim Greimel (Site not responsive.) , Suneel Gupta , Dan Haberman [fM], Fayrouz Saad [M], Haley Stevens
MN-01 D Open Walz Toss-Up Johnny Akzam [M], Dan Feehan (more, more, more) [DP; m], Vicki Jensen [DP], Bob Ries (more) [m], Joe Sullivan , Rich Wright (more) [DP; m, l][M]
MN-02 R Lewis Toss-Up Angie Craig (more) [DCCC], Jeff Erdmann (more) [e][M]
MN-03 R Paulsen Tilt-R Brian Santa Maria [M], Adam Jennings (more) [m], Dean Phillips
MN-07 D Peterson Lean-D [No challenger]
MN-08 D Open Nolan Toss-Up Kirsten Hagen Kennedy (more) [DP], Michelle Lee [M], Jason Metsa (more) [DP], Leah Phifer (more) [in][M], Joe Radinovich [DP]
NE-02 R Bacon Tilt-R Brad Ashford , Kara Eastman (On her conversion to #MedicareForAll; more.) [JD; e][M]
NH-01 D Open Shea-Porter Tilt-D Mark S. Mackenzie (more, more) [DP], Deaglan McEachern (more) [DP], Mindi Messmer (more) [s][M], Terence O’Rourke [m, l][M], Chris Pappas (more) [DP], Levi Sanders (more; more) [M], Lincoln Soldati [l], Maura Sullivan (more) [EL, DP; m]
NJ-02 R Open LoBiondo Toss-Up Will Cunningham (more) [DP], Sean Thom (more) [e][M], Jeff Van Drew (more) [DCCC, DP], Tanzie Youngblood (more) [e]
NJ-05 D Gottheimer Tilt-D [No challenger]
NJ-07 R Lance Tilt-R Peter Jacob (On the Justice Democrats; Congressional candidate plans ‘Medicare-for-all’ town hall in Bedminster) [M], Goutam Jois , Tom Malinowski
NJ-11 R Open Frelinghuysen Toss-Up Mitchell Cobert [l], Jack Gebbia (more) [m], Tamara Harris (more) , Alison Heslin , Mikie Sherrill (more) [EL, DCCC; m, l][M], Mark Washburne [e][M]
NV-03 D Open Rosen Tilt-D Richard Hart , Susie Lee (more; more)) [EL, DCCC; e], Jack Love [M], Guy Pinjuv (more) [s], Steve Schiffman , Eric Stoltz , Michael Weiss (more) [M]
NV-04 D Open Kihuen Likely-D John Anzalone (more) [e], Steven Horsford (more) [DP], Patricia Spearman (more) [DP; m][M], Allison Stephens (more) [DP; e], Amy Vilela (more) [JD][M], Sid Zeller [m, in]
NY-19 R Faso Tilt-R Jeff Beals [JD; in, e][M], David Clegg [M], Erin Collier (more) , Antonio Delgado [fM], Brian Flynn [M], Gareth Rhodes , Pat Ryan [m, in]
NY-22 R Tenney Tilt-R Anthony Brindisi
PA-01 R Fitzpatrick Tilt-R Steve Bacher [DP; e][M], Rachel Reddick [EL; m], Scott Wallace (more)
PA-05 R Open Meehan Likely-D Larry Arata [e], George Badey (more) [DP], Shelly Chauncey (more) [in][fM], Margo Davidson [DP], Thaddeus Kirkland [DP], Richard Lazer (more) [DP][M], Lindy Li (more) , Ashley Lunkenheimer (more) [l], Dan Muroff (more; more) [DP], Mary Gay Scanlon , Molly Sheehan (more) [s][M], Greg Vitali (more) [DP], David Wertime , Theresa Wright
PA-06 R Costello Likely-D Chrissy Houlahan (more; more) [EL, DCCC; m]
PA-07 R Open Dent Tilt-D David Clark , Rick Daugherty [DP], Greg Edwards [JD][M], John Morganelli [DP; l], Roger Ruggles (more) [e], Susan Wild (more; more) [EL; l]
PA-08 R Fitzpatrick Likely-D [No challenger]
PA-17 R Rothfus Tilt-R Conor Lamb [m, l], Ray Linsenmayer (Dropped out (oddly). More; more; more.)
TX-07 R Culberson Tilt-R Joshua Butler [h, e], James Cargas [DP], Lizzie Pannill Fletcher , Laura Moser , Ivan Sanchez [fM], Alex Triantaphyllis , Jason Westin (background; reflections on his loss) [h]
TX-23 R Hurd Toss-Up Gina Ortiz Jones [EL, DP; m, l][M], Rick Trevino [JD, OR, DP][M]
UT-04 R Love Tilt-R Sheldon Kirkham (more) , Ben McAdams , Darlene McDonald [JD; s][M], Morgan Shepherd , Tom Taylor [s][M]
VA-10 R Comstock Toss-Up Shadi Ayyas [DP; h], Julia Biggins (more) [s], Alison Kiehl Friedman (more) [DP; in], Daniel Helmer (more) [m][M], Julien Modica , Paul Pelletier (more) [l], Michael Pomerleano (more) , Lindsey Davis Stover (more) [DP], Jennifer Wexton (more) [DP; l]
WA-08 R Open Reichert Toss-Up Poga Ahn , Thomas Cramer [M], Shannon Hader (more) [h], Robert Hunziker (more) [M], Brian Kostenko [M], Jason Rittereiser (more) [IN; l][M], Kim Schrier (more) [EL, IN; h]
WI-01 R Open Ryan Tilt-R Randy Bryce (more) [fM], Cathy Myers (more) [e][M]

Because we now have our races in database form, we can be clever about looking for relationships. But I’m not going to be clever today; instead I will present three results.

Figure 1: Democrat Pick-Ups

As readers know, the Democrats have to pickup 24 seats to flip the House. There are 30 districts listed in Figure 1, so if the Inside Elections people are on the money this year, the races to watch (for that purpose) are right there. Readers?

Figure 2: #MedicareForAll Support

There are 61 challengers who support #MedicareForAll, of 209 total, or 29%.

Figure 3: #MedicareForAll Support vs. DCCC Backing

On the bright side, the DCCC hasn’t imposed an outright ban on #MedicareForAll support; nevertheless, 2 of 16 (12.5%) does bespeak a certain reluctance to embrace the policy.

Figure 4: #MedicareForAll Support vs. All Backing

Expanding on Figure 2, we get some interesting results: Many challengers with no backing at all support MedicareFor all, as do many “ordinary” Democrats (who I define not as Democrat apparatchiks, but people at one point networked into the Party, whether as organizers, staffers, administration officials, electeds at the local level, etc.)

Hopefully, continued investigation will give us more insight into the institutional structure of the Democrat Party. By way of conclusion!

P.S. Now that the grunt work is done, I hope to be more clever in future iterations…

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.


  1. allan

    Thank you for doing what must be an incredibly tedious task.

    Honest question: How does one decide what is real #MedicareForAll?
    Some issues pages say “path to universal coverage” or “strengthen ACA”, so it’s clear that they’re waffling,
    but one of the candidates you identify as being in favor of #MedicareForAll says this on their site:

    I will fight back against any attempt to decrease coverage or increase premiums, and I’ll never vote to give a trillion-dollar tax break to billionaires and bankers at the expense of the most vulnerable people in our community.

    The reference to “fighting back against” increasing premiums sure makes it sound like commercial insurance companies will still be in the picture. That’s a lot less than an outright endorsement of H.R. 676 or some other concrete proposal for single payer.

    1. Utah

      My experience is that “Medicare-for-All” is a purposeful statement that shows what side of the Dem Aisle you’re standing on. Everything else is sketchy to me.
      I read “universal access to affordable healthcare” the other day and wondered what that meant. It’s like saying both things at once. Pretty clever obfuscating! Thanks to NC, “Access to healthcare” is on my radar as words that mean nothing.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > universal access to affordable healthcare

        It doesn’t mean anything. Democrats kept calling ObamaCare “universal” long after it was obvious that it wasn’t.

        Nobody who uses verbiage like that gets credit. See my next comment.

        Adding, I don’t really find it tedious, because the people, or the self-presentations of the people, or both, are so interesting. And I like inventing taxonomies, and testing them out. What bugs me is that it’s hard to know the scope of the work going in. I’ll be knocking out onesies and twosies in Iowa, and suddenly a mob of Californians or Pennsylvanians crowds its way in. But as I keep saying, what an enormous country the United States is.

        1. False Solace

          That verbiage — “access to” “affordable” care — makes my blood boil.

          As parents and citizens, would we accept “access to affordable” elementary school for our kids?

          No! Because it’s obvious crazy talk. It spreads a poisonous unexamined idea that health care is something people should worry about “affording”. Yet politicians repeat that phrase over and over like we should applaud them for saying it. No! It’s obvious crazy talk and we should call them on it every time. We send kids to school in our communities without making their parents worry about how to pay for it. Health care should not be any different.

          1. Arizona Slim

            Me? I want “access to affordable” libraries! And “access to affordable” roads!

            Okay, enough outta me. Better shut that sarcasm machine off.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      I code for “Medicare For All” when they use that actual phrase, best of all when combined with “single payer.”

      And I’m glad you asked, because I forgot to say, in the post and the Legend, that I adopted “fM” for faux or fake Medicare, and found with great pleasure that the first person I tagged with it was Randy Byrce (because I start from the end of the alphabet, WI, and work down. Bryce clearly used the phrase but at the very, very best had something like Medicare Extra in mind. Kentucky, IIRC, had two cases of the “Medicare for All would be the best, but wheeze, and neither got credit.

      There are judgment calls:

      1) When the candidates are confused about the policy; I try to err on the side of caution

      2) The whole “glidepath” argument; these are steps towards Medicare for All. Here, I try to evaluate sincerity, since in a Civics 101 world that makes sense. If they use Democrats buzzwords like “access” I don’t give them credit. If they seem to have thought it out for themselves, I consider it.

      And of course there are coding errors!! For which candidate did you find my coding problematic?

        1. aliteralmind

          NJ-3 Dem Andy Kim most definitely does not want Medicare for All:

          “Get Everyone Covered. Our country, our economy, our security will be stronger when our people are healthier. Having millions of people without health insurance raises the costs for all of us. We need to ensure everyone, rich or poor, has access to quality affordable healthcare. This is our new moonshot, and we can save countless lives in the process.”


      1. Darius

        The glide path is a Democratic Congress and President. Pass M4A with budget reconciliation. Boom. Done. If they don’t deliver, revolution.

  2. ArcadiaMommy

    Thank you, this looks interesting. Any chance we could get this in a downloadable spreadsheet format? I would like to run this by my husband as he is in the loop with politics in several states and make notes based on his info.

  3. UserFriendly

    I am getting soooo fed up with skynet latly. it has got to be turned up to 120 or something becuse it keeps snagging the most innocuous comments and not even putting them into moderation. And only when it’s a long comment that I didn’t copy first, which I do at least 60% of the time. Maybe I’ll try again tomorrow after some sleep.

    p.s. Dems need 23 to take the chamber after connor lamb.

      1. UserFriendly

        lol, yes he does need to win again, but they still need to net 23 more seats. They could lose his seat MN-1 and MN-8 then they would need to flip 26 GOP seats for a net of 23 ;-).

  4. Northeaster

    Medicare for All won’t do shit until the legalized monopoly statuses of the entire healthcare industry are broken. Those corps, especially Big Pharma, won’t let that happen (they passed Wall Street in donations/lobbying). Being a Democrat won’t matter, especially if the Speaker is a career crony who will NEVER let a Bill like that come to the floor for a vote in the first place. Finally, as The Vining Case shows, COngress Members, staff, and family members don’t eat their cooking when it comes to healthcare/Obamacare (h/t OPM). Sounds like a nice campaign slogan to get elected though.

    Meanwhile, I hope The House does go Democrat, but not a super-majority in Congress. This way, neither Party can pass anything else to screw us…Although, #Bailouts were done in a bi-partisan fashion.

  5. Steve from CT

    Lambert, a suggestion for consideration to be included would be the CT 5th District now held by Democrat Elizabeth Esty. She did a really dumb move with her former chief of staff so she is not running again. At present their is no clear Dem favorite for this seat and the Repubs have a credible candidate. Right now some are calling this seat a toss-up. It has been Repub in the past and Esty’s behavior could influence who wins this seat.

  6. HotFlash

    Hi Lambert, that’s whole lot of work, hope you are taking a well-deserved victory nap. Your M/fM detective work is a great contribution to an informed electorate. Thank you.

    Proofreader hat on: the Farouz Saad link should be
    (currently links back to this page)

  7. DonCoyote

    AZ-02 Ann Kirkpatrick’s name is not linked to her website,

    I’m also going to dispute that she is a #MedicareForAll supporter. From her website, above, under Health Care: “Ann supports expanding the eligibility for individuals to buy into Medicare and believes it’s time for a public option, especially in counties where there is only one health insurance option available over the exchanges. Finally, she believes we must give Medicare the power to negotiate drug prices to reduce costs for our seniors.” So I’m not seeing it there, or in any story on her. Quite the opposite, in fact:

    …she made sure to state emphatically that “I do not support single payer health care. And I do not support Medicare for All,” claiming it is too expensive. Of course that was met by 400 blank stares from the perplexed audience of mostly progressive Democrats. She then described a Medicare buy in plan– stolen almost word-for word from other Democratic candidates– which is an expansion of an existing single payer system.

    I may dispute Myers, WI-01 as well, but let me go do a little more research…

    1. DonCoyote

      OK, I was mixed up on WI-01, Myers, she is pretty unambiguously #MedicareForAll (Full disclosure: I donated to Randy Bryce, one of her primary opponents). Randy has said in several venues that he is for #MedicareForAll, but I agree his website and some of his statements don’t seem straightforward/wholehearted on the issue. Given that Ryan has dropped out, I’d like to see a debate between Myers and Bryce (He claims he’s willing to debate, she claims he isn’t).

      Now, NJ-11, Mikie Sherrill, the other supposed DCCC/#MedicareForAll candidate, say this on her website:

      Healthcare should be a right and not a luxury, and we can do more to bring down costs and make sure every American has access to affordable healthcare coverage.

      First, we need to stabilize the healthcare marketplace. Congressman Frelinghuysen and the House Appropriations Committee have had more than seven years to make sure the cost sharing reductions were funded. Now, Congressman Frelinghuysen and President Trump are sabotaging the healthcare marketplace to score political points with their supporters. It is time for Washington to stop playing politics with our health care. We need to roll up our sleeves and start fixing our healthcare system. Let’s allow Medicare to leverage its buying power to negotiate lower drug prices – it works for the VA and it will help bring down costs for our seniors. And instead of the Frelinghuysen Age Tax, let’s find a fiscally responsible way to allow certain individuals older than 55 the option of buying into Medicare.

      So that starts promising but does not seem like #MedicareForAll to me (#HealthInsuranceForAll at best).

      {Starting 5:30 in, in response to a question if she was for #MedicareForAll} “I’m for quality and affordable healthcare for each and every person in this country. I don’t think there’e one way to get to that, but I think we have to make sure we’re moving towards that.” IMO, so close and yet so far.

    2. 1enoz

      I also read about AZ district 8 starting to look like a possibility of going R to D with Hiral Tipirneni challenging the incumbent. On her website she calls for “expanding Medicare” as well as strengthening some provisions of the ACA.
      What are the chances of a call for Medicare For All becoming the prarie fire that will push Dem hopefulls away from organised (gangster) medicine?

    3. DonCoyote

      Story from yesterday on AZ-02 Kirkpatrick:

      Some Democrats support “Medicare for all,” but she sees a flaw in the approach because it relieves corporations of providing healthcare for their employees and puts the burden on taxpayers. She noted that most people — 140 million Americans — get health insurance through their employment. “Why give the corporations a break for healthcare when they are already providing it for their employees?” she says. “The corporations just got their tax cuts, let them pay for health care for their employees.”

      So I would say that’s a pretty emphatic NO to #MedicareForAll from Kirkpatrick. But hey, raising lots of money and DCCC endorsed = ka-ching for the Dem consultants.

    1. DonCoyote

      Lambert forgot to repost his key (see also):

      Biography: m, i, l, o (“MILO”) Military,Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Other); s,h, e (“SHE”) Science, Health, Education

      Backers: BN, EL, IN, JD, OR; DCCC; DP; S: Brand New Congress,Emily’s List, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution; DCCC; Demo

  8. Leftcoastindie

    Not so sure about Sara Jacobs in CA-49. This is her medicare for all statement on healthcare from her website.
    Too much wiggle room in there to say she supports Medicare for All. Maybe in 20 years…


    Health care is a fundamental human right and we need to do everything we can to get to universal coverage. It’s an embarrassment that here in the United States we still don’t guarantee health care to all our people. Having travelled to many other countries, I’ve seen first-hand how universal coverage is an achievable goal, especially for the wealthiest country in the world. Many examples across the world show that a strong public role in health care can provide affordable, universal coverage, and as such, I would vote for Medicare for All.

    Looking ahead, I’ll work to find smart ways to implement and manage the transition to a public program, and I support letting Americans buy in to Medicare and Medicaid, and a strong public option, as first steps of a transition.
    Sara Jacobs for Congress

    ” bold is mine

    1. DonCoyote

      Well…I’d probably give her credit. “…transition to a public program” is essentially single payer. She’s not for #MedicareForAll #WhenDoWeWantIt_Now, but most of the people who have studied the issue admit there will have to be a transitional period, and have mentioned the steps to get there that she does.

      But Lambert said he was conservative on this determination, so I’m curious to here what he has to say about Sara.

  9. UserFriendly Post author

    Here goes….. Updates you might want to add.
    MN-1 Johnny Akzam – Also supports MMT. I have had several conversations with him and he is a great guy and a good fit for the district but will have no shot because literally everyone is against him. There is a strong chance he runs 3rd party though because of how mistreated he feels by the DFL.

    This last weekend we had at least some congressional district level caucuses smack in the middle of a 2 foot blizzard. I had no intention of going to mine, not that Ellison was in any danger; but I had plans and spent an hour shoveling out and still couldn’t go anywhere cause it was that bad. (Yes, most people in MN can handle driving in snow pretty well but this was BAD).

    The only CD’s that made the news were:
    MN-2 DFL Endorsed corporate sock puppet and former GOP bundler Angie Craig.
    MN-3 DFL Endorse rich businessman Dean Phillips who uses weasel words on M4A and has said: “I’m fiscally responsible, and I’m socially inclusive, and I’m independent… I’m not a typical Democrat.” AKA exactly a typical democrat.
    MN-8: After 10 rounds of balloting neither of the top two remaining (Leah Phifer or Joe Radinovich) had enough to get the party endorsement. Michelle Lee and the top two will go on to the primary in August. Jason Metsa and Kirsten Kennedy called it quits.

    I haven’t heard anything about the other CD’s but I wouldn’t expect to for MN-4 MN-5 (very safe D seats), MN-7 (GOP leaning but held by a blue dog dem who will absolutely win again) or MN-6 (Very safe GOP).
    Which leaves the toss up district MN-1 with no news, but that is also a large ruralish district that was in the part of the state hit hardest by the blizzard, so maybe they postponed it.

    The caucus process here is non binding. If you don’t win it (or no one does) you can still head to the binding August primary. We also do have a history of ignoring the caucus endorsements in the primary. IIRC current gov Dayton and Tim Pawlenty (first time around and this time too) didn’t get the endorsement but won the primary anyways. However, both had much higher name ID so it was less of a battle.

  10. DonCoyote

    NJ-11 candidate Mark Washburne name is not linked to his website:

    The story his name *is* linked to does have him supporting #MedicareForAll; his website has poor design and rambling delivery, but here is paragraph 19 of his Healthcare where he finally gets to the point: “Given all these problems with employer-based healthcare, I would be in favor of gradually – not tomorrow but over time – moving our country towards a Medicare for all type system.”

    The incumbent Republican, Frelinghuysen, had the seat for 24 years (with very little Demo opposition during that time, including 2006; Michael Moore was trying to run a ficus tree against him in 2000 to show how safe his seat was), and apparently hasn’t had a town hall for the last 6 of them. Frelinghuysen is chairman of the House Appropriations committee and even early in 2018 was saying he wasn’t going to retire (and has >$1 mill cash on hand from fundraising).

  11. DonCoyote

    As others have noted, many thanks for a monumental task. My notes are to try and make it better, not to criticize…

    AZ-02 Billy Kovacs name does not link to his website: (At least I’m assuming you want to link their name to their website, so apologies if that was not the point. The story linked to for Billy Kovacs does not have anything for or against #MedicareForAll that I saw, but I’m one for primary sources when available).

    And I would say his website is fairly unambiguous on #MedicareForAll: “Health care is a human right. Not a privilege. I believe that all Americans should have health insurance coverage. We need a health care system that puts people and positive outcomes before profits. That is why I support a Medicare for All.” (Not sure what the “a” is about).

    1. DonCoyote

      Even though Lambert says he expanded to Lean-R and Likely-R at the top, I’m pretty sure he meant Lean-R and Likely-D, since I don’t see any Likely-R’s on his list.

      Cook’s Political Report has CA-04 as a Likely-R (even blue California has red seats). if the Dems do manage to capture any Likely-R seats in November, that would be the sign of a “Blue Wave” indeed.

      Roza Calderon is one of the Dem primary opponents CA-04, who is solidly behind #MedicareForAll and Justice Democrat endorsed.

      If you live there and/or know something about the race, please feel free to share.

  12. DonCoyote


    Where did you get your DCCC endorsements? I’m looking at The DCCC “Red to Blue” page, which seems like at least one channel for their endorsement (or did you look at $$)? They have candidates on their list that you have on yours, but don’t have a DCCC next to them (e.g. Gil Cisneros, CA-39; Tom Malinowski, NJ-07)

    They have 38 candidates on that list, 20 of which you have on yours. You say the DCCC hasn’t outright banned #MedicareForAll, but I looked closely at your two and I have doubts, to say the least. Now I’m looking at some of the others.

    Check out Clarke Tucker, AR-02, and his five health care bullets:

    Protect Universal Access to Healthcare
    Lower prescription drug prices by allowing the federal government to negotiate good deals for healthcare consumers.
    Improve the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by stabilizing the insurance exchange markets.
    Incentivize insurers to participate in the exchanges, especially in rural and underserved areas.
    Achieve universal healthcare coverage to ensure everyone is able to see a provider so our families can receive the best and most efficient care possible.

    Shouldn’t #5 be #1 (why are we protecting it if we don’t have it yet?) And IMO #MedicareForAll isn’t there.

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