By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Readers, here is the latest iteration of my “Table 1” for the 2018 primaries. Perhaps, some day, there may even be a Table 2! This iteration is more to build a foundation for future iterations as the primaries heat up; nevertheless, there are some interesting results. This is what I did for structure:
1) I added a column for the primary dates.
2) I added a column for the previous iteration’s horserace ratings, so I can track changes in the tilts, leans, and likelies. (As before, the data is the latest from Inside Elections).
3) I also did more work on the Likely Rs, but it’s not ready to show yet.
And for data:
1) I rechecked all the backers: DCCC, Emily’s List, Our Revolution, Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress, and Indivisible. There were very few additions from Our Revolution, who seem to back mostly state and local canidates; very few from Emily’s List, who focus on early money, anyhow; and none from Indivisible, who although they have an endorsement process, have made very few endorsements to date). DCCC, however, was quite active.
2) I rechecked all the horserace ratings (see Figure 2, below).
I did not rework the Challengers column, which means I am behind the curve especially in volatile states like Pennsylvania, but now that I have the primary dates, I can do more “just in time” data entry; it really is too much to check every single challenger every time I put this table together.
So, herewith, the table. After the table, I’ll present some results.
Table 1: Worksheet on House Races, Election 2018 (2018-05-01).
|District||Primary Date||Party||Status||Incumbent||Horserace||Horserace (Previous)||Challengers|
|AZ-01||08-28||D||—||O’Halleran||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||Miguel Olivas [DP]|
|AZ-02||08-28||R||Open||McSally||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||William Foster , Matt Heinz [DP; h], Ann Kirkpatrick (more, more) [EL, DCCC, DP][M], Billy Kovacs , Mary Matiella (more) [JD; m][fM], Barbara Sherry (more) , Bruce Wheeler (more) [DP][M], Yahya Yuksel [DP][M]|
|CA-10||06-05||R||—||Denham||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Mike Barkley [DP; m][M], Michael Eggman , Josh Harder [e][M], Virginia Madueno [fM], Dotty Nygard [M], Sue Zwahlen|
|CA-25||06-05||R||—||Knight||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Bryan Caforio [M], Katie Hill [fM], Mary Pallant (more) , Jess Phoenix|
|CA-39||06-05||R||Open||Royce||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Gil Cisneros (more; more) [DCCC; m], Sam Jammal (more) [DP][M], Suzi Park Leggett [DP], Ted Rusk , Cybil Steed (more) [e], Andy Thorburn (more) [OR; e][M], Mai Khanh Tran (more, more) [EL; h]|
|CA-45||06-05||R||—||Walters||Lean-R||Lean-R||Brian Forde [DP; s], John Graham , Kia Hamadanchy [M], Dave Min (CAP.) , Katie Porter [M]|
|CA-48||06-05||R||—||Rohrabacher||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Hans Keirstead [h][fM], Rachel Payne (Googler; more) [EL; s], Harley Rouda , Deanie Schaarsmith , Omar Siddiqui [in][fM], Tony Zarkades [m][M]|
|CA-49||06-05||R||Open||Issa||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Douglas Applegate [JD; m][M], Sara Jacobs (more) [EL, DP][M], Paul Kerr (more ) [m][M], Mike Levin (more) [DP][M]|
|CO-06||06-26||R||—||Coffman||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Jason Crow [DCCC, DP; m], Erik Stanger [M], Levi Tillemann [M]|
|FL-07||08-28||D||—||Murphy||Lean-D||Lean-D||Chardo Richardson [BN, JD; m][M]|
|FL-26||08-28||R||—||Curbelo||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Demetries Grimes [m], Ricky Junquera (more) , Steven Machat [M], Debbie Mucarsel-Powell , Steve Smith [m]|
|FL-27||08-28||R||Open||Ros-Lehtinen||Lean-D||Lean-D||Mary Barzee Flores [EL], Kristen Rosen Gonzalez (more) [DP; e], Matt Haggman , Michael Hepburn (more) [BN, JD; e], Mark Anthony Person , David Richardson (more, more) [DP][M], Jose Javier Rodriguez (more) [DP], Ken Russell [DP], Donna Shalala (more; more) [DP]|
|IA-01||06-05||R||—||Blum||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Abby Finkenauer , Thomas Heckroth , George Ramsey [m, l], Courtney Rowe [JD; m][M]|
|IL-06||03-20||R||—||Roskam||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Becky Anderson (Becky Anderson) , Sean Casten (more) [fM], Carole Cheney , Amanda Howland [DP; e], Ryan Huffman [M], Kelly Mazeski (“A Medicare-for-all public option.”) [fM], Becky Anderson Wilkins (more) , Becky Anderson Wilkins (more) , Jennifer Zordani|
|IL-12||03-20||R||—||Bost||Lean-R||Lean-R||David Bequette [m], Brendan Kelly (more) [DCCC; m, in, l]|
|KS-02||08-07||R||Open||Jenkins||Lean-R||Lean-R||Paul Davis , Nathan Schmidt (more)|
|KS-03||08-07||R||—||Yoder||Lean-R||Lean-R||Sharice Davids (more) , Reggie Marselus , Mike McCamon (“Create a single-payer Option”) [s], Tom Niermann [e], Jay Sidie , Brent Welder [M], Sylvia Williams|
|KY-06||05-22||R||—||Barr||Lean-R||Lean-R||Jim Gray (more) , Theodore Green , Daniel Kemph , Amy McGrath [DP; m], Reggie Thomas [DP; e], Geoff Young (perennial candidate)|
|MI-08||08-27||R||—||Bishop||Lean-R||Lean-R||Elissa Slotkin (Money race; “the real deal”; Biden endorses.) [EL, DCCC, DP; m, in][fM], Chris Smith|
|MI-11||08-27||R||Open||Trott||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Tim Greimel (Site not responsive.) , Suneel Gupta , Dan Haberman [fM], Fayrouz Saad [M], Haley Stevens|
|MN-01||08-14||D||Open||Walz||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Johnny Akzam [M], Dan Feehan (more, more, more) [DCCC, DP; m], Vicki Jensen [DP], Bob Ries (more) [m], Joe Sullivan , Rich Wright (more) [DP; m, l][M]|
|MN-02||08-14||R||—||Lewis||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Angie Craig (more) [EL, DCCC], Jeff Erdmann (more) [e][M]|
|MN-03||08-14||R||—||Paulsen||Lean-R||Lean-R||Brian Santa Maria [M], Adam Jennings (more) [m], Dean Phillips|
|MN-08||08-14||D||Open||Nolan||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Kirsten Hagen Kennedy (more) [DP], Michelle Lee [M], Jason Metsa (more) [DP], Leah Phifer (more) [in][M], Joe Radinovich [DP]|
|NE-02||05-15||R||—||Bacon||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Brad Ashford , Kara Eastman (On her conversion to #MedicareForAll; more.) [JD; e][M]|
|NH-01||09-11||D||Open||Shea-Porter||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||Mark S. Mackenzie (more, more) [DP], Deaglan McEachern (more) [DP], Mindi Messmer (more) [BN; s][M], Terence O’Rourke [m, l][M], Chris Pappas (more) [DP], Levi Sanders (more; more) [M], Lincoln Soldati [l], Maura Sullivan (more) [EL, DP; m]|
|NJ-02||06-05||R||Open||LoBiondo||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Will Cunningham (more) [DP], Sean Thom (more) [e][M], Jeff Van Drew (more) [DCCC, DP], Tanzie Youngblood (more) [e]|
|NJ-07||06-05||R||—||Lance||Lean-R||Lean-R||Peter Jacob (On the Justice Democrats; Congressional candidate plans ‘Medicare-for-all’ town hall in Bedminster) [M], Goutam Jois , Tom Malinowski|
|NJ-11||06-05||R||Open||Frelinghuysen||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Mitchell Cobert [l], Jack Gebbia (more) [m], Tamara Harris (more) , Alison Heslin , Mikie Sherrill (more) [EL, DCCC; m, l][M], Mark Washburne [e][M]|
|NV-03||06-12||D||Open||Rosen||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||Richard Hart , Susie Lee (more; more)) [EL, DCCC; e], Jack Love [M], Guy Pinjuv (more) [s], Steve Schiffman , Eric Stoltz , Michael Weiss (more) [M]|
|NV-04||06-12||D||Open||Kihuen||Likely-D||Likely-D||John Anzalone (more) [e], Steven Horsford (more) [DCCC, DP], Patricia Spearman (more) [DP; m][M], Allison Stephens (more) [DP; e], Amy Vilela (more) [BN, JD][M], Sid Zeller [m, in]|
|NY-19||06-26||R||—||Faso||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Jeff Beals [JD; in, e][M], David Clegg [M], Erin Collier (more) , Antonio Delgado [fM], Brian Flynn [M], Gareth Rhodes , Pat Ryan [m, in]|
|PA-01||05-15||R||—||Fitzpatrick||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Steve Bacher [DP; e][M], Rachel Reddick [EL; m], Scott Wallace (more)|
|PA-05||05-15||R||Open||Meehan||Likely-D||Likely-D||Larry Arata [e], George Badey (more) [DP], Shelly Chauncey (more) [in][fM], Margo Davidson [DP], Thaddeus Kirkland [DP], Richard Lazer (more) [DP][M], Lindy Li (more) , Ashley Lunkenheimer (more) [l], Dan Muroff (more; more) [DP], Mary Gay Scanlon , Molly Sheehan (more) [s][M], Greg Vitali (more) [DP], David Wertime , Theresa Wright|
|PA-06||05-15||R||—||Costello||Likely-D||Likely-D||Chrissy Houlahan (more; more) [EL, DCCC; m]|
|PA-07||05-15||R||Open||Dent||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||David Clark , Rick Daugherty [DP], Greg Edwards [JD][M], John Morganelli [DP; l], Roger Ruggles (more) [e], Susan Wild (more; more) [EL; l]|
|PA-17||05-15||R||—||Rothfus||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Conor Lamb [m, l], Ray Linsenmayer (Dropped out (oddly). More; more; more.)|
|TX-07||03-06||R||—||Culberson||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||Joshua Butler [h, e], James Cargas [DP], Lizzie Pannill Fletcher , Laura Moser , Ivan Sanchez [fM], Alex Triantaphyllis , Jason Westin (background; reflections on his loss) [h]|
|TX-23||03-06||R||—||Hurd||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Gina Ortiz Jones [EL, DCCC, DP; m, l][M], Rick Trevino [JD, OR, DP][M]|
|UT-04||06-26||R||—||Love||Lean-R||Lean-R||Sheldon Kirkham (more) , Ben McAdams , Darlene McDonald [JD; s][M], Morgan Shepherd , Tom Taylor [s][M]|
|VA-10||06-12||R||—||Comstock||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Shadi Ayyas [DP; h], Julia Biggins (more) [s], Alison Kiehl Friedman (more) [DP; in], Daniel Helmer (more) [m][M], Julien Modica , Paul Pelletier (more) [l], Michael Pomerleano (more) , Lindsey Davis Stover (more) [DP], Jennifer Wexton (more) [DP; l]|
|WA-08||08-07||R||Open||Reichert||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||Poga Ahn , Thomas Cramer [M], Shannon Hader (more) [h], Robert Hunziker (more) [M], Brian Kostenko [M], Jason Rittereiser (more) [IN; l][M], Kim Schrier (more) [EL, IN; h]|
|WI-01||08-14||R||Open||Ryan||Lean-R||Lean-R||Randy Bryce (more) [fM], Cathy Myers (more) [e][M]|
Biography: m, i, l, o (“MILO”) Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Other)
Backers: BN, EL, IN, JD, OR; DCCC; DP; S: Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution; DCCC; Democrat Party, whether elected, staffer, official, etc.; inspired by Sanders.
Policies: M, fM, Medicare for All, and faux Medicare for All.
- Bio keys are m, i, l, and o) for Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Other (except I didn’t find any Others this time). A candidate who worked for the CIA is keyed i. A candidate who worked in Law enforcement and the military is keyed “lm.” “Law Enforcement” is conceived broadly, including not only police but district attorneys.
- Backer keys are BN, EL, IN, JD, OR, and DCCC, Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and (of course) the DCCC. In addition, there is a DP key, for members of the Democrat Party network, elected and otherwise, and S, for challengers inspired by Sanders.
- Policy keys are M, fM, for Medicare for All, and any of the various bait-and-switch alternatives proposed by think tanks like CAP, or centrists like Merkeley. Some judgement is involved, based on the verbiage. “Single payer” always merits an “M,” for example.
Figure 1: Primary Dates
As you can see, primaries in IL and TX have already passed (although the TX-07 run-off between Moser and Fletcher will happen on May 22). Anyhow, now that I have this Calendar, I can make Water Cooler coverage a bit more tied to current events. And those of you who contribute to candidates may find this useful for planning.
Figure 2: “The Wave
If indeed there is to be a “wave,” it will show up in the districts. We should expect to see signs of it as Tilt-R districts change to Toss-Ups, Toss-Ups change to Tilt-Ds, and so on. (I grant that the methodology is what it is; I’m summarizing the handicappers. Presumably, however, the handicappers are looking at the polls. I’m including the SQL not to show off, but because it’s so much fun to ask the data a question and get an answer!)
So, MN-07 changed from Lean-D to Likely-D. That is the wave so far.
Of course, 189 days is a long time in politics, and maybe the real effects don’t kick in until after the primaries. I don’t see why that should be so, however; if party enthusiasm is the key factor behind a wave, it should be showing up before any candidates are chosen. Certainly that’s what people — people on the Twitter, and so forth — say is happening, right now.
Figure 3: Medicare for All and the DCCC (Candidates)
You can see that of 23 candidates backed by the DCCC, three (13%) support #MedicareForAll. I keep saying that the top priority for liberal Democrats this cycle is preventing #MedicareForAll, and numbers like this provide ample backing for that thesis. You can also see the fallback position: faux Medicare for All, under such vague rubrics as “universal access,” etc.
Figure 4: Medicare for All and the DCCC (Districts)
I wondered what accounted for DCCC-supported candidates who did the right thing; it looks to me that when faced with challenges from the left on #MedicareForAll, they do indeed move left themselves (though of course the bait-and-switch alternatives provide ample scope for betrayal at a later date.
Hopefully, readers find this series of reaonably deep dives useful; suggestions for future topics to look into are welcome. (Spoiler: I’m coming round to the notion that the real wedge issue for the Democrat Party is the nature of the Party itself. As Lampedusa did not say: “If we want things to change, things will have to change.” I know this is meta, but so be it.)
 The only list of DCCC-backed candidates I can find on the DCCC site is from their flagship “Red to Blue” program. Doubtless there are more.