Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (How Big Does “The Wave” Have to Be?)

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1. allan June 11, 2018 at 2:24 pm

   Lambert:DCCC :: Hercules:Augean Stables

   To pick two nits: Brindisi in NY-22 and Perez-Williams in NY-24 both have DCCC backing
   (assuming that being on the Red to Blue list actually means anything other than
   agreeing to spend the rest of your life fundraising).
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 11, 2018 at 5:36 pm

      Perez-Williams was a data entry error, however, brilliantly, Brindisi exposed a logic error in the query that produces the table (the empty string is not the same as NULL!) Thank you.
      1. allan June 13, 2018 at 12:19 pm

         In NY-24, Dana Balter has now been endorsed by Our Revolution.
2. dcblogger June 11, 2018 at 2:56 pm

   Howie Klein made an excellent point on the Nicole Sandler show, that Democrats continue to sweep the special elections. So, whatever the generic polls say, Democrats keep winning actual elections. This is not without significance.
   1. DonCoyote June 11, 2018 at 3:40 pm

      Lost AZ-08 at the end of April. Doug Jones squeaked by a child molester. And of course Ossoff lost despite a ton of money. Like “districts that HRC won in 2016”, I think this is not a meaningless indicator, but the importance is being overrated. Special elections are not the same as midterm elections are not the same as general elections.
      1. DonCoyote June 11, 2018 at 4:26 pm

         And California just lost their state D supermajority last Tuesday.
         1. DHG June 11, 2018 at 7:56 pm

            Doesnt matter the state is bluest of blue, so they slow down raising taxes.
   2. Darthbobber June 11, 2018 at 3:43 pm

      “Sweep” is a bit of an overstatement, and the relative success in local elections may simply illustrate the point that your chances increase the less “help” you have from the beltway geniuses.
   3. Eureka Springs June 11, 2018 at 3:46 pm

      Significantly horrifying.
   4. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 11, 2018 at 5:37 pm

      Winning a special election isn’t the same as beating an incumbent, though. I can’t find the link, but some are quite skeptical of the predictive value of special elections.
3. Carey June 11, 2018 at 3:19 pm

   What *is* a Democrat, exactly, and if more of them are elected, for whom is that a good thing?
   1. DonCoyote June 11, 2018 at 4:24 pm

      Democrats are the Wall Street wing of the Military Industrial Complex/Permanent State (MIC/PS) party.

      Dem leaders endorse pay-go. Because that’s how you fire up your base and engage independents–virtually pledging that you will make no significant changes to anything because that would not be “budget neutral”. And who cares if Team-R just gave a huge giveaway to Big Business that was not even close to budget neutral–no, Team-D will be the party of fiscal responsibility and austerity.
      1. edmondo June 11, 2018 at 4:37 pm

         Team-D will be the party of fiscal responsibility and austerity.

         It worked so well for them in 2016.
   2. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 11, 2018 at 5:38 pm

      > What *is* a Democrat, exactly

      The more I think about this question, the more baffled I get.
      1. edmondo June 11, 2018 at 7:22 pm

         This should help:

         The DNC and members of Congress “are turning to Hollywood for help with voter turnout and messaging ahead of the midterm elections and 2020 presidential campaign, quietly consulting with a group of actors, writers and producers here,” Politico reports.

         “DNC Chairman Tom Perez…met with the group, formed by members of the entertainment industry …, complete with producers of such programs as Veep.”

         Said writer and producer Alex Gregory: “It really is focused on what do we stand for?

         The Democrats are hapless and hopeless
      2. The Rev Kev June 11, 2018 at 9:21 pm

         Had the same feeling with the Labour party in Australia about twenty years ago. They are the local equivalent of your Democrat party and during one election back then I asked myself the question – “What do they stand for?” and for the life of me I could not answer that question.
         1. pretzelattack June 12, 2018 at 3:10 am

            as far as i can tell, keeping the latest iteration of tammany hall going; that’s the overriding purpose, and whatever camouflage they need to adopt to effect that is just a tactic.
            1. pretzelattack June 12, 2018 at 3:44 am

               damn, i didn’t realize tammany lasted until the mid 1960’s, and was largely brought down by fdr and eleanor.
4. DonCoyote June 11, 2018 at 4:14 pm

   Thanks as always Lambert for the massive amount of work required. Looks much better even as it has grown.

   Minor nit: MN-03 has the candidates all listed twice.

   Red to Blue (DCCC) Not listed : CA-21 TJ Cox; CA-48 Harley Rouda; NE-02 Brad Ashford; IA-01 Abbie Finkenhauer; UT-04 Ben McAdams; IL-06 Sean Casten; IL-13 Betsy Londrigan; Paul Davis (KS-02); MI-07 Gretchen Driskell; MN-03 Dean Phillips; NC-09 Dan McCready; NC-13 Kathy Manning; NJ-03 Andrew Kim; NJ-07 Tom Malinowski; NY-11 Max Rose; NY-22 Anthony Brindisi; NY-24 Juanita Perez Williams; OH-01 Aftab Pureval; TX-07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher; TX-32 Colin Allred; VA-02 Elaine Luria; WA-05 Lisa Brown
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 11, 2018 at 5:52 pm

      MN-03 is fixed (I only got as far as Iowa in reviewing the incumbents. On the DCCC:

      L = logic error (fixed above)

      D = data entry error

      Thank you!

      [D] CA-21 TJ Cox
      [L] CA-48 Harley Rouda
      [L] NE-02 Brad Ashford
      [L] IA-01 Abbie Finkenhauer
      [L] UT-04 Ben McAdams
      [L] IL-06 Sean Casten
      [D] IL-13 Betsy Londrigan
      [L] KS-02 Paul Davis
      [D] MI-07 Gretchen Driskell
      [L] MN-03 Dean Phillips
      [L] NC-09 Dan McCready
      [L] NC-13 Kathy Manning
      [L] NJ-03 Andrew Kim
      [L] NJ-07 Tom Malinowski
      [L] NY-11 Max Rose
      [L] NY-22 Anthony Brindisi
      [D] NY-24 Juanita Perez Williams
      [D] OH-01 Aftab Pureval
      [L] TX-07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
      [L] TX-32 Colin Allred
      [L] VA-02 Elaine Luria
      [L] WA-05 Lisa Brown
5. DonCoyote June 11, 2018 at 4:28 pm

   CA results–unsurprisingly, both of the winners who are not for Medicare for All are Red-to-Blue (DCCC) candidates.
6. edmondo June 11, 2018 at 4:31 pm

   I can see a lot of people sitting on their couches come November. I know I will be. There is no reason to choose between Republican and Republican-lite. Why bother?

   In other news, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee just reserved $14 million in TV time to support every Blue Dog Democrat running in November, including Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly (you know those Resistance Fighters who keep approving Trump’s nominees) as well as Kirsten Simena (Blue Dog-AZ) and Jackie Rosen (Corporatist-NV). Oh yeah, you can bet I’ll be out there to vote early and often in November – NOT!.
   1. dcblogger June 11, 2018 at 5:35 pm

      sez you, there will be an army of Medicare for All candidates running in November and you can best believe people will turn out to vote for them.
      1. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 11, 2018 at 6:01 pm

         It is true that Pelosi et al didn’t manage to squelch Medicare for All in California. I think “army” is stretching it.

         Adding, this year. I bet 2020 will be different.
      2. edmondo June 11, 2018 at 6:43 pm

         “…you can best believe people will turn out to vote for them.”

         And yet they never turned out to vote for them in the primaries. I can hardly wait for this Great Awakening you believe is coming in the next 5 months.
      3. Big River Bandido June 11, 2018 at 7:15 pm

         Everyone knows that the Democrats in Washington won’t even consider real reform. By vocally backing “pay go” Pelosi copped to the fact that any Democrat candidate who campaigns on reform is lying.
   2. Jeremy Grimm June 11, 2018 at 5:42 pm

      I can’t suggest a good way to do it — other than voting for a minor office to assure your ballot must be counted and leaving the rest blank or write-in — but I’ve always liked the story about the “No” vote that toppled Pinochet in Chile. What spin could the ‘Wise’ put on an election where the majority of the total number of ballots counted made no vote for an office?
7. Arizona Slim June 11, 2018 at 4:44 pm

   And, right on cue, the Arizona Democrat party just sent me this e-mail.

   Subject: We don’t really talk anymore

   Hi there,

   Here at the Arizona Democratic Party, we are working around the clock to put Democrats in office this November. But we can’t do it alone. That’s why we’re so glad to have someone like you on our team.

   I know we haven’t talked in a while — which is why I’m reaching out today. It’s important to me that you are only hearing from us when it’s necessary. So, let me walk through some of your options to stay engaged with the party:

   Contribute Today

   Volunteer

   Text Us

   Thanks for being on this team.

   Herschel Fink
   Executive Director
   Arizona Democratic Party

   For the record, I Demexited in the early hours of Wednesday, March 23, 2016. That was the day after our state’s presidential primary, which included a lot of voter suppression. Remember those stories about people standing in line for five hours? That happened. And the Democrat party didn’t do jack to stop it from happening.

   I had changed my independent status to Democrat so I could vote for Bernie Sanders. Fat lotta good that did.
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 11, 2018 at 6:40 pm

      They paid good money to have a consultant write that up, too.
      1. Arizona Slim June 12, 2018 at 7:11 am

         I’m saving that e-mail. Why? Because, as a printout, it would make a great wraparound for my next NC donation check.

         Recycling for the win!
         1. Arizona Slim June 12, 2018 at 7:57 am

            I also unsubscribed from the Arizona Democrats’ mailing list.

            Not the first time I’ve done so, but this time, I gave them my reason for unsubscribing. All I had to do was copy and paste the final paragraph of the post that started this thread. Ahhh, that felt good.
8. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 11, 2018 at 6:38 pm

   I would be very interested to hear from readers in the districts numbered 18 – 31 in Figure 1. Does it seem plausible that the Democrats can flip your district?

   And by Democrats, I mean these Democrats. So far as I can tell, at the national level, the Democrat leadership remains unchanged in every respect (personnel; attitude; strategy). But we know from Shattered and Chasing Hillary that they’re out of touch and have terrible judgment. So does it matter that they’re using the party as a pass-through to the same group of consultants and strategists again?
   1. edmondo June 11, 2018 at 7:32 pm

      I would bet that the d’s have a better chance of taking WI-01 and WV-03 (Ojeda is my one big hope for Dems to see what a real populist looks like – Bernie should be down there. This race is winnable.) than they do of beating the CA Republicans.

      Don’t you live on ME-02? Do you see Poliquan in distress?
      1. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 11, 2018 at 7:38 pm

         Thanks.

         I don’t, but I’ll know better, soon. (Hilariously, Emily Cain, who lost to Poliquin, is now heading Emily’s List. Failing upward….)
   2. UserFriendly June 11, 2018 at 10:18 pm

      While I don’t live there I used to work in #39 MN-3 and I would absolutely say it is flippable, IMO more flippable than MN-2. MN-3 is richer, went much more for Hillary, and has a perfect milktoast rich guy back by the DCCC in Dean Phillips to appeal to the anti-Trumpers in that entirely suburban district. Plus MN has something going for it now that will actually make me (and others like me) turn up and vote. With Ellison on the Ballot for AG in the primary and a few decent progressives running for his seat I will actually vote in both elections, his coattails will help everyone else down ballot who otherwise wouldn’t have bothered to vote for any of the totally uninspiring candidates for gov and senate. I could see Ellison pulling a Krasner which would be GREAT!
   3. DonCoyote June 12, 2018 at 9:34 am

      OK, I don’t live in any of the districts 1-31. But I used to live in 5 (AZ-02) and I live close to 15 (TX-23) {fun fact–my work/home commute runs through five different US House districts}. So here are some predictions.

      1) Team-D will overall gain House Seats (that’s a pretty safe bet).
      2) Team-D will not win all the seats in #1-17.
      3) Team-D will lose at least one seat somewhere and probably more than 1.
      4) Team-D will get more than one seat below #31

      2&3, taken together (and, of course, if true) means Team-D needs more than 6 out of 14 in #18-31 (and/or needs some below 31)

      OK, my specific predictions:

      TX-23 Gina Jones (D) defeats Hurd. D’s had at least 15% more overall primary voters, and her military background counters his being on Homeland Security. Not an exciting candidate, but he’s only been in two terms.

      TX-07 Culberson (R) defeats Fletcher. R’s had at least 15% more overall primary voters, and he is a nine-term incumbent. And Fletcher is not an exciting candidate either.

      AZ-02: Coin flip. I mean, the primary hasn’t even happened yet, but assuming the two big money candidates (Kirkpatrick and Peterson) get in, then I don’t think either is going to resonate with the Independents, who may sit this one out. Kirkpatrick has the fundraising edge, for now, but also previous time in office that I think will hurt her. No incumbent, and no energy.

      So can the D’s get a 23+ gain and win the House? My last prediction is that it’s going to come down to those candidates below #31. In other words, Team-D is going to need a handful of “upsets” in Lean/Likely R seats, because they have a significant number of coin-flips/soft spots in the easier seats.
      1. Arizona Slim June 12, 2018 at 11:46 am

         Update on AZ-02 — Kirkpatrick’s residency is in question. Here’s what our local fishwrap has to say:

         https://tucson.com/news/local/locals-seek-to-oust-kirkpatrick-from-cd-race-say-she/article_af0de99d-b270-5533-92b7-bcc0c36c7f8a.html
         1. Arizona Slim June 12, 2018 at 12:55 pm

            And there’s more!

            http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/061118_kirkpatrick/heinz-wants-boot-kirkpatrick-off-primary-ballot-over-residence-claims/
         2. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 12, 2018 at 5:01 pm

            Oopsie. I added that link to the worksheet. They play rough in AZ, don’t they?
      2. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 12, 2018 at 5:07 pm

         That’s an interesting scenario. You could be right. In today’s Water Cooler, I find a lot of money spent in ME-02, under the radar. So it would be interesting to know if that’s going on elsewhere in the 31+ range.
9. Big Tap June 11, 2018 at 8:55 pm

   https://twitter.com/EmilyForCO/status/1005128137259139073

   What’s up with Planned Parenthood? Are they aware abortion is no longer a ‘litmus test’ according to Nancy Pelosi?
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 12, 2018 at 5:05 pm

      Maybe Planned Parenthood was too busy union-busting to notice?
10. pretzelattack June 12, 2018 at 4:05 am

    i’m not sure gridlock is our friend; the tammany hall democrats and the republicans seem to agree on militarism, not doing enough about climate change, and pushing policies that exacerbate inequality. i hoped trump would shake things up more, but hope in one hand, etc.
    1. Lambert Strether Post authorJune 12, 2018 at 5:06 pm

       I think gridlock between liberals and conservatives is a good until the left is strong enough to counterbalance the both of them.
11. Gina June 12, 2018 at 5:01 pm

    Red wave coming everywhere. IG report will be de-classified and 100% of the Democrat corruption will be shown to the American people…might even be live streamed….read it and weep. Biggest surprise of 2018? It is a tie between denuclearization of NK OR WHEN J. Assange will testify. Democrat party is a dead man walking. Be sure to stock up on food and water as riots/Marshall law may occur? Those in denial will be melting down!
12. Gina June 13, 2018 at 1:04 pm

    Is it really True? https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/03/13/pers-m13.html#pk_campaign=sidebar&pk_kwd=textlink

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