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By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Here is the latest iteration of my “Table 1” for the 2018 primaries. The structure is the same as the last iteration (‘‘Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Status Quo, with a Look at the Winners So Far)”). The districts in play as of July 25 are listed. There are 80, and surely, if the Democrats are to win the 23 seats they need to win to take control of the House, those 23 are in that 80. All challenger data, except backers, is now updated, including backers and winners. As requested, winners are marked (with a blue star). As usual, the horserace information is the latest available from the Inside Elections and Cook Reports tipsheets. I’m going to use this data to answer three questions:
1) Who are the winnners?
2) What about the horserace? Even though my focus is institutional, everybody wants to know the answer to this question!
3) What about the left?
There are also other questions I hope to ask, but I’m under the gun to run my queries and get this enormous post up, so I may have to answer them in UPDATEs. I hope you will also feel free to ask questions in comments, and if I can cudgel the database into answering, I’ll post the answer.
Table 1: Worksheet on House Races, Election 2018 (10-25).
|AR-02||05-22||R||Hill||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+17||-10.70||Gwen Combs (Women’s March; more) [m, e, w], Jonathan Dunkley (more) [e][M], Paul Spencer (Rural broadbamd) [e][M], ★Clarke Tucker (More) [DCCC, DP][fM]|
|AZ-01||08-28||D||O’Halleran||Lean-D||Tilt-D||R+02||-1.10||Miguel Olivas [DP]|
|AZ-02||08-28||R||McSally||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+01||4.90||William Foster, Matt Heinz [DP; h], ★Ann Kirkpatrick (more, more; but see here; more) [EL, DCCC, DP][fM], Billy Kovacs (More), Mary Matiella (more) [DFA, JD; m][M], Barbara Sherry (more), Bruce Wheeler (more) [DP][M], Yahya Yuksel [DP][M]|
|AZ-08||08-28||R||VACANT||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+13||-21.10||Judith McHale (McHale dropped out prior to the filing deadline), Bob Musselwhite (More) [DP; e], Bob Olsen [m, l], ★Hiral Tipirneni (More; more) [EL, IN; h][fM], Brianna Westbrook (More; more) [JD, OR][M]|
|CA-04||06-05||R||McClintock||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+10||-14.70||Regina Bateson. (More) [o], Roza Calderon (More. Also DSA-endorsed) [BN, JD, OR; s][M], Robert Lawton (More) [M], Richard Martin (More), ★Jessica Morse (More; more) [EL, GS; m][fM], Rochelle Wilcox (More) [l]|
|CA-10||06-05||R||Denham||Toss-Up||Tilt-R||EVEN||3.00||Mike Barkley [DP; m][M], Lisa Battista, Mateo Morelos Bedolla (More) [DP][M], Michael Eggman, ★Josh Harder [DCCC; e][M], Virginia Madueno [EL][fM], Dotty Nygard, Dotty Nygard [M], Seth Vaughn, Sue Zwahlen [DP]|
|CA-21||06-05||R||Valadao||Likely-R||Likely-R||D+05||15.50||★TJ Cox (More) [DCCC], Emilio Huerta (More)|
|CA-25||06-05||R||Knight||Toss-Up||Tilt-R||EVEN||6.70||Bryan Caforio [JD, OR][M], Kelan Farrell-Smith (More), Daniel Fleming, Diedra Greenaway (More) [DP], ★Katie Hill [EL][fM], Michael Masterman-Smith (More) [h], Scott McVarish (More), Mary Pallant (more) [DP], Jess Phoenix [OR]|
|CA-39||06-05||R||Royce||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||EVEN||8.60||Jay Chen (More) [m, in, s, e][M], ★Gil Cisneros (more; more) [DCCC; m], Sam Jammal (more) [DP][M], Phil Janowicz (More) [e], Suzi Park Leggett [DP], Ted Rusk, Cybil Steed (more) [e], Andy Thorburn (more) [OR; e][M], Mai Khanh Tran (more, more) [EL; h]|
|CA-45||06-05||R||Walters||Toss-Up||Lean-R||R+03||5.40||Brian Forde, Brian Forde [DP; s], John Graham, Kia Hamadanchy [DP][M], Dave Min (CAP) [DP], ★Katie Porter [DFA, EL, PCCC, DCCC][M], Greg Ramsay, Eric Rywalski, Ron Varasteh|
|CA-48||06-05||R||Rohrabacher||Tilt-D||Tilt-R||R+04||1.70||Hans Keirstead [h][fM], Michael Kotick, Laura Oatman, Rachel Payne (Googler; more) [EL; s], ★Harley Rouda [IN, DCCC], Deanie Schaarsmith, Omar Siddiqui [in][fM], Tony Zarkades [m][M]|
|CA-49||06-05||R||Issa||Lean-D||Toss-Up||R+01||7.50||Douglas Applegate [JD; m][M], Sara Jacobs (more) [EL, DP][M], Paul Kerr (more ) [m][M], ★Mike Levin (more) [DFA, PCCC, DCCC, DP][M]|
|CA-50||06-05||R||Hunter||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+11||-15.00||Pierre Beauregard (More) [DP], Josh Butner [m], ★Ammar Campa-Najjar. (More; more; more) [DFA, IN, JD, OR, PCCC, DP][M], Gloria Chadwick (More) [h, w], Glenn Jensen (More), Patrick Malloy (More; more) [M], Alex Spilger (more)|
|CO-06||06-26||R||Coffman||Tilt-D||Tilt-R||D+02||8.90||★Jason Crow [DCCC, DP; m], Erik Stanger, Erik Stanger [M], Levi Tillemann [OR, DP][M]|
|FL-07||08-28||D||Murphy||Likely-D||Lean-D||EVEN||7.30||Chardo Richardson [BN, JD; m][M]|
|FL-26||08-28||R||Curbelo||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||D+06||16.30||Demetries Grimes [m], Ricky Junquera (more), Steven Machat [DP][M], ★Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [EL, DCCC], Steve Smith [m]|
|FL-27||08-28||R||Ros-Lehtinen||Lean-D||Lean-D||D+05||19.60||Mary Barzee Flores [EL], Kristen Rosen Gonzalez (more) [DP; e], Matt Haggman, Michael Hepburn (more) [BN, JD; e], Mark Anthony Person, David Richardson (more, more) [DP][M], Jose Javier Rodriguez (more) [DP], Ken Russell [DP], ★Donna Shalala (more; more) [EL, DP]|
|GA-06||05-22||R||Handel||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+08||-1.50||Kevin Abel (Runoff, July 24. Abel), Steven Knight Griffin [h][fM], Bobby Kaple (More; more. ), ★Lucy McBath (Runoff, July 24. More; more) [EL, DCCC]|
|GA-07||05-22||R||Woodall||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+09||-6.30||Kathleen Allen (More) [h][M], ★Carolyn Bourdeaux (Run-off July 24. More; more) [EL, DP; e], Melissa Davis (More), David Kim (Run-off July 24. More. ) [e], Ethan Pham [fM], Steve Reilly|
|IA-01||06-05||R||Blum||Lean-D||Toss-Up||D+01||-3.50||★Abby Finkenauer [EL, DCCC, DP], Thomas Heckroth [DP], George Ramsey [m, l], Courtney Rowe [JD; m][M]|
|IA-03||06-05||R||Young||Toss-Up||Likely-R||R+01||15.30||★Cindy Axne (More) [EL, DCCC][fM], Pete D’Alessandro (More; more) [JD, OR; s][M], Eddie Mauro|
|IL-06||03-20||R||Roskam||Tilt-D||Tilt-R||R+02||7.00||Becky Anderson (Becky Anderson), ★Sean Casten (more) [DCCC][fM], Carole Cheney [DP], Grace Haaf (More), Amanda Howland [DP; e], Ryan Huffman [DP][M], Kelly Mazeski (“A Medicare-for-all public option.”) [fM], Geoffrey Petzel (More), Austin Songer, Becky Anderson Wilkins (more), Jennifer Zordani|
|IL-12||03-20||R||Bost||Tilt-R||Lean-R||R+05||-14.80||David Bequette [m], ★Brendan Kelly (more) [DCCC; m, in, l]|
|IL-13||03-20||R||R. Davis||Lean-R||Likely-R||R+03||-5.50||Jonathan Ebel (More) [m, in], David Gill (More; more) [BN; h][M], Erik Jones (More; more) [DP; l][fM], ★Betsy Londrigan (More) [EL, DCCC, DP; w][fM], Angel Sides (More) [M], Benjamin Webb (More) [e], Mark Wicklund (More)|
|IN-02||05-08||R||Walorski||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+11||-23.20||Aaron Bush, Douglas Carpenter (More) [h][fM], Pat Hackett (More) [fM], ★Mel Hall (More) [OR, DP; h], Yatish Joshi (More) [DP][fM], Roland Leech, John Petroff (More)|
|KS-02||08-07||R||Jenkins||Toss-Up||Lean-R||R+10||-18.40||★Paul Davis [DCCC, DP], Nathan Schmidt (more) [DP]|
|KS-03||08-07||R||Yoder||Tilt-D||Lean-R||R+04||1.30||★Sharice Davids (More; more) [EL], Chris Haulmark (More), Reggie Marselus, Mike McCamon (“Create a single-payer Option”) [s], Tom Niermann [e], Andrea Ramsey (More) [EL], Jay Sidie, Brent Welder [BN, JD, OR, PCCC, DP][M], Sylvia Williams|
|KY-06||05-22||R||Barr||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+09||-15.30||Jim Gray (more) [DP], Theodore Green, Daniel Kemph, ★Amy McGrath [DCCC, DP; m], Reggie Thomas [DP; e], Geoff Young (perennial candidate)|
|ME-02||06-12||R||Poliquin||Toss-Up||Lean-R||R+02||-17.60||Phil Cleaves (Dexter rural mail carrier), Jonathan Fulford (more; withdrawal) [DP][fM], ★Jared Golden (more; ) [GS, DCCC, DP; m][M], Craig Olson (More) [DP][fM], Tim Rich (More), Lucas St. Clair (More; more; more; more) [M]|
|MI-06||08-07||R||Upton||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+04||-8.40||David Benac (More) [BN, JD, DP; e][M], Paul Clements (More) [e][M], Rich Eichholz [s][fM], George Franklin (More) [DP], Eponine Garrod (More; more) [s], Aida Gray [m], ★Matt Longjohn (More) [h]|
|MI-07||08-07||R||Walberg||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+07||-17.00||★Gretchen Driskell (More) [EL, DCCC, DP], Steven Friday (More; more) [m, s][M]|
|MI-08||08-07||R||Bishop||Toss-Up||Lean-R||R+04||-6.70||★Elissa Slotkin (Money race; “the real deal”; Biden endorses) [EL, DCCC, DP; m, in][fM], Chris Smith|
|MI-11||08-07||R||Trott||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+04||-4.40||Tim Greimel (Site not responsive) [DP], Suneel Gupta, Dan Haberman [fM], Fayrouz Saad [DFA, JD, DP][M], ★Haley Stevens [EL, DP]|
|MN-01||08-14||D||Walz||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+05||-14.90||Johnny Akzam [M], ★Dan Feehan (more, more, more) [DCCC, DP; m], Vicki Jensen [DP], Bob Ries (more) [m], Joe Sullivan, Rich Wright (more) [DP; m, l][M]|
|MN-02||08-14||R||Lewis||Tilt-D||Toss-Up||R+02||-1.20||★Angie Craig (more) [EL, DCCC], Jeff Erdmann (more) [e][M]|
|MN-03||08-14||R||Paulsen||Tilt-D||Lean-R||D+01||9.40||Brian Santa Maria [M], Adam Jennings (more) [m], ★Dean Phillips [DCCC]|
|MN-08||08-14||D||Nolan||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+04||-15.60||Kirsten Hagen Kennedy (more) [DP], Michelle Lee [M], Jason Metsa (more) [DP], Leah Phifer (more) [in][M], ★Joe Radinovich [DCCC, DP]|
|MT-01||06-05||R||Gianforte||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+11||-20.60||John Heenan (More; more; more) [BN; s][M], Grant Kier (More; more) [DP], John Meyer, Lynda Moss (More) [DP], Jared Pettinato (More; ) [DP; l], ★Kathleen Williams (More; more; more) [EL, DP], Tom Woods (More. ) [DP; e]|
|NC-09||05-08||R||Pittenger||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+08||-11.60||Christian Cano (More; more) [fM], ★Dan McCready (More; more) [DCCC; m], Maria Warren (More) [e]|
|NC-13||05-08||R||Budd||Tilt-R||Likely-R||R+06||-9.40||Adam Coker (More) [DP], ★Kathy Manning (More; ; more; more) [EL, DCCC], Beniah McMiller|
|NM-02||06-05||R||Pearce||Tilt-R||Lean-R||R+06||-10.20||David Alcon (More), David Baake (More), Ronald Fitzherbert, Madeleine Hildebrandt [m, e], Tony Martinez (More; more) [m], Angel Pena (More; more), ★Xochitl Torres Small (More; more; more) [EL, DCCC, DP], Adolf Zubia (More)|
|NE-02||05-15||R||Bacon||Lean-R||Tilt-R||R+04||-2.20||Brad Ashford [DP], ★Kara Eastman (On her conversion to #MedicareForAll; more) [DFA, EL, IN, JD, PCCC, DCCC; e][M]|
|NH-01||09-11||D||Shea-Porter||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+02||-1.60||Mark S. Mackenzie (more, more) [DP], Deaglan McEachern (more) [DP], Mindi Messmer (more) [BN; s][M], Terence O’Rourke [m, l][M], ★Chris Pappas (more) [DP], Levi Sanders (more; more) [M], Lincoln Soldati [l], Maura Sullivan (more) [EL, DP; m]|
|NJ-02||06-05||R||LoBiondo||Likely-D||Likely-D||R+01||-4.60||Will Cunningham (more) [DP], Sean Thom (more) [e][M], ★Jeff Van Drew (more) [DCCC, DP], Tanzie Youngblood (more) [e]|
|NJ-03||06-05||R||MacArthur||Tilt-D||Likely-R||R+02||-6.20||Rich Dennison (More) [DP], Katherine Hartman (More), ★Andrew Kim (More; more) [PCCC, DCCC; m, in], Frederick John Lavergne (More) [DP]|
|NJ-05||06-05||D||Gottheimer||Safe-D||Safe-D||R+03||-1.10||No challenger (Now safe D)|
|NJ-07||06-05||R||Lance||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+03||1.10||Peter Jacob (On the Justice Democrats; Congressional candidate plans ‘Medicare-for-all’ town hall in Bedminster) [BN, JD, OR][M], Goutam Jois, ★Tom Malinowski [IN, DCCC, DP]|
|NJ-11||06-05||R||Frelinghuysen||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+03||-1.00||Mitchell Cobert [l], Jack Gebbia (more) [m], Tamara Harris (more), Alison Heslin, ★Mikie Sherrill (more) [EL, DCCC; m, l][M], Mark Washburne [e][M]|
|NV-03||06-12||D||Rosen||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+02||-1.00||Richard Hart, ★Susie Lee (more; more)) [EL, DCCC; e], Jack Love [M], Guy Pinjuv (more) [s], Steve Schiffman, Eric Stoltz, Michael Weiss (more) [M]|
|NV-04||06-12||D||Kihuen||Likely-D||Likely-D||D+03||4.90||John Anzalone (more) [e], ★Steven Horsford (more) [DCCC, DP], Patricia Spearman (more) [DP; m][M], Allison Stephens (more) [DP; e], Amy Vilela (more) [BN, IN, JD][M], Sid Zeller [m, in]|
|NY-11||06-26||R||Donovan||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+03||-9.80||Michael DeVito, Jr. (More) [m, e][M], Zach Emig (Bond trader; more) [M], Radhakrishna Mohan (More), ★Max Rose (More; more; more) [DCCC; m, l][fM], Paul Sperling (More), Omar Vaid (More) [fM]|
|NY-19||06-26||R||Faso||Tilt-D||Tilt-R||R+02||-6.80||Jeff Beals [JD; in, e][M], David Clegg [M], Erin Collier (more) [EL, DP], ★Antonio Delgado [IN, DCCC][fM], Brian Flynn [M], Gareth Rhodes [DP][M], Pat Ryan [m, in][fM]|
|NY-22||06-26||R||Tenney||Tilt-D||Tilt-R||R+06||-15.50||★Anthony Brindisi [DCCC, DP][fM]|
|NY-24||06-26||R||Katko||Likely-R||Likely-R||D+03||3.60||★Dana Balter (More; more; more) [DFA, EL, IN, GS, OR, PCCC, DCCC, DP; e][M], Scott Comegys (More; more; more) [DP], Philip LaTessa [DP], Anne Messenger (More; more) [fM], Juanita Perez Williams (More; more; more: more) [DP; m, e][fM]|
|OH-01||05-08||R||Chabot||Lean-R||Likely-R||R+05||-6.60||Robert Barr (More), ★Aftab Pureval (More; more; more) [DCCC; l], Laura Ann Weaver (More) [h][fM]|
|OH-12||05-08||R||VACANT||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+07||-11.30||Ed Albertson (More; more) [m][fM], Crystal Lett (More: ) [w], ★Danny O’Connor (More; more; more) [DP], Jackie Patton (More; more; ) [h, w], John Peters [e], John Russell (More; more) [IN][M], Zach Scott (More; more; more) [l], Doug Wilson [h][M]|
|OH-14||05-08||R||Joyce||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+05||-11.50||★Betsy Rader [EL, DCCC]|
|PA-01||05-15||R||Fitzpatrick||Toss-Up||Tilt-R||D+31||61.30||Steve Bacher [DP; e][M], Rachel Reddick [EL; m], ★Scott Wallace (more) [IN, DCCC, DP]|
|PA-05||05-15||R||Meehan||Likely-D||Likely-D||R+13||-28.80||Larry Arata [e], George Badey (more) [DP], Shelly Chauncey (more) [in][fM], Margo Davidson [DP], Thaddeus Kirkland [DP], Richard Lazer (more) [DP][M], Lindy Li (more), Ashley Lunkenheimer (more) [l], Dan Muroff (more; more) [DP], ★Mary Gay Scanlon [EL], Molly Sheehan (more) [s][M], Greg Vitali (more) [DP], David Wertime, Theresa Wright|
|PA-07||05-15||R||Dent||Lean-D||Tilt-D||R+01||2.30||★David Clark, ★Rick Daugherty [DP], ★Greg Edwards [JD][M], John Morganelli [DP; l], Roger Ruggles (more) [e], ★Susan Wild (more; more) [EL, DCCC; l]|
|PA-10||05-15||R||Perry||Lean-R||Likely-R||R+16||-35.90||Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson (More; more; more; more) [EL, DP; w], Eric Ding (More; more) [s, h][fM], Alan Howe (More; more; more) [m][fM], ★George Scott (More; more; more) [IN; m, in][fM]|
|PA-17||05-15||R||Rothfus||Lean-D||Toss-Up||R+01||-10.10||★Conor Lamb [m, l], Ray Linsenmayer (Dropped out (oddly). More; more; more)|
|TX-07||03-06||R||Culberson||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+07||1.40||Joshua Butler [h, e], James Cargas [DP], ★Lizzie Pannill Fletcher [EL, DCCC], Laura Moser (more) [JD, DP], Ivan Sanchez [DP][fM], Alex Triantaphyllis, Jason Westin (background; reflections on his loss) [h]|
|TX-21||03-06||R||Smith||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+10||-10.00||Derrick Crowe (More; more) [JD, DP][M], ★Joseph Kopser (More; more; more; more; more; more; more; more) [m][fM], Elliott McFadden (More) [DP][M], Rixi Melton [e][M], Mary Wilson (More; more; more) [e][M]|
|TX-23||03-06||R||Hurd||Lean-R||Toss-Up||R+01||3.40||★Gina Ortiz Jones [DFA, EL, DCCC, DP; m, l][M], Rick Trevino [BN, JD, OR, DP][M]|
|TX-32||03-06||R||Sessions||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+05||1.90||★Colin Allred (More; more; more; more) [DCCC, DP][fM], David Henry, , Steve Love, [m, s], Todd Maternowski, Ed Meier (More; more) [DP][fM], Danielle Pellett (More) [m, s], Chris Suprun, Darrell Rodriguez, George Rodriguez (More) [fM], Lillian Salerno (More: more) [DP][fM], Brett Shipp (More; more) [fM]|
|UT-04||06-26||R||Love||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+13||-6.70||Sheldon Kirkham (more), ★Ben McAdams [DCCC, DP], ★Darlene McDonald [JD; s][M], Morgan Shepherd, Tom Taylor [s][M]|
|VA-02||06-12||R||Taylor||Tilt-R||Likely-R||R+03||-3.40||★Elaine Luria (More; more) [EL, DCCC; m], Karen Mallard (More) [DP; e]|
|VA-05||06-12||R||Garrett||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+06||-11.10||★Leslie Cockburn (More; more) [EL][M], Ben Cullop (More; more; more) [e], (More) [m], Adam Slate, Andrew Sneathern (More; more) [l][fM]|
|VA-07||06-12||R||Brat||Toss-Up||Lean-R||R+06||-6.50||★Abigail Spanberger (More; more) [EL, DCCC; in, l, e], Dan Ward (More; more; more) [m]|
|VA-10||06-12||R||Comstock||Tilt-D||Toss-Up||D+01||10.00||Shadi Ayyas [DP; h], Julia Biggins (more) [s], Alison Kiehl Friedman (more) [DP; in], Daniel Helmer (more) [m][fM], Julien Modica, Paul Pelletier (more) [l], Michael Pomerleano (more), Lindsey Davis Stover (more) [DP], ★Jennifer Wexton (more) [EL, DCCC, DP; l]|
|WA-05||08-07||R||McMorris Rodgers||Lean-R||Likely-R||R+08||-20.10||★Lisa Brown (More; more; more) [EL, IN, DCCC, DP; e], Matt Sutherland|
|WA-08||08-07||R||Reichert||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||EVEN||3.00||Poga Ahn, Thomas Cramer [M], Shannon Hader (more) [h], Robert Hunziker (more) [M], Brian Kostenko [M], Jason Rittereiser (more; more) [IN; l][M], ★Kim Schrier (more) [EL, IN; h]|
|WI-01||08-14||R||Ryan||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+19||-10.30||★Randy Bryce (more) [DFA, JD, PCCC, DCCC][fM], Cathy Myers (more) [e][M]|
|WV-03||05-08||R||Jenkins||Lean-R||Likely-R||R+23||-49.20||★Paul Davis [DCCC], Janice Hagerman, Shirley Love (More; ) [DP], Richard Ojeda (More; more; more) [DCCC, DP; m][fM]|
- Bio keys are m, i, l, and o) for Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Other (except I didn’t find any Others this time). A candidate who worked for the CIA is keyed i. A candidate who worked in Law enforcement and the military is keyed “lm.” “Law Enforcement” is conceived broadly, including not only police but district attorneys.
- Backer keys are BN, EL, GS, IN, JD, OR, and DCCC, Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Great Slate, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and (of course) the DCCC. In addition, there is a DP key, for members of the Democrat Party network, elected and otherwise, and S, for challengers inspired by Sanders.
- Policy keys are M, fM, for Medicare for All, and any of the various bait-and-switch alternatives proposed by think tanks like CAP, or centrists like Merkeley. Some judgement is involved, based on the verbiage. “Single payer” always merits an “M,” for example.
Table 2: The Winners, Election 2018 (10-25).
A quick scan of the table may yield some disturbing implications, depending on your political viewpoint, which I will address in Figure 3, and in subsequent updates.
Figure 2 (a): The Horserace
I’ve been dilatory about producing new worksheets — partly workload, partly because I think I already know the institutional story — but that gives us the opportunity of seeing shifts over a two-month span. Of the 80 districts we have been tracking, 43 have changed. I have shaded the seats where the handicappers’ ratings changed; for example, from Tossup to Lean-D. As you can see, the shift toward the Democrats (“Blue”) is enormous. I’ve sorted the table by districts so readers can check their own:
That’s a lot of bluel! Of course, the Democrats need to do more than shift districts; they need to win them. Of these districts that have shifted toward the Ds, how many are have actually moved into the D column? Let’s see:
Figure 2 (b): The Horserace and Likely Winners
Big caveat: This data comes from the 80 races I’ve been tracking from the beginning of this project, and I picked those 80 because handicappers, at the beginning of this election season, said those were the most likely to flip from Republican to Democrat (thus flipping the House, if the Democrats win 23 of the 80). It seemed to me further that these districts were where liberal Democrats would concentrate their resources (and where the left would challenge liberals, should they choose to do so.) However, the map may have expanded (see again note ), and districts may be in play now that are not members of the 80. So my sample could be bad for horserace purposes (even if useful for institutional purposes). Starting from this sample, if the Democrats are to pick up 23, they need to pick up the 15 listed above — the districts that have shifted into the D column from the R — plus 8 more from somewhere on the expanded map. Based on Figure 2 (b) the odds certainly look sketchier than most media coverage conveys.
As ever, the question is not “Can Democrats win?” but “Can these Democrats win?” Notice that Figure 2(b) divides neatly into two halves: The top half (A) where Clinton won the district in 2016 (HRC > 0), and the bottom half (B) where she did not. The top half (A) has 8 members of the 23 needed. Note also that the bottom half (B) of the table — the districts Clinton lost, though mostly not by much — is where the “pivot” districts are located; the districts that voted for Obama, and then flipped to Trump. Note that volatility is still concentrated in this part of the table: 8 toss-ups in the 8 rows of (A); 12 toss-ups in the 7 rows of (B). (I’m counting both current and previous toss-ups on the assumption that the district could flip back to its previous state.) In other words, the districts that flipped to Trump in 2016 have not “come home,” as we say. If the universe of districts is like Figure 2(b), the Democrats are right to be nervous that the “Blue Wave” might break before it reaches shore.
I view one effect of the 2016 as a split in the party between dominant liberal faction that controls the party machinery, and an insurgent left faction that, well, does not. (In fact, Obama punched the left right in the mouth when he booted Ellison and replaced him with Perez, and then the rest of the liberals joined in the stomping by removing all the Sanders supporters from the Rules and Bylaws Committee.) So, in our universe of 80, where is the left? Well, it seems to me that one good proxy for being on the left is support for Medicare for All (and not faux Medicare for All, either). Here are the winners of the 2016 Democrat Party primaries who support Medicare for All:
12 of 80; 15%.
Suppose we further refine the query by ruling out “MILO” candidates, on the theory that military, intelligence, and law enforcement officials are unlikely to be on the left:
Figure 3(b): The Left (Medicare for All and No MILOs
6 of 80; 7.50% (three of educational background; 1 of science).
Now let’s assume that the DCCC would “never, ever” back a candidate on the left, and filter out all those candidates:
Figure 3(c): The Left (Medicare for All and No MILOs and no DCCC)
2 of 80; 3.50% (and kudos to Justice Democrats).
Caveat: This exercise doesn’t imply that the left is not successfully challenging liberals elsewhere, in other districts, or at other levels of government, like state level races or school boards, etc. It does show that the left has not successfully challenged liberals in races that could reasonably be thought crucial to flipping control of the House in 2018. This exercise also doesn’t imply that challenges from the left are useless or to be avoided. All it shows is that this cycle the left is not going to gain control of the party machinery, or anything like it. (Which is not to say that left voices, especially voices like AOC, aren’t important; they are. Rome wasn’t burnt in a day, after all.) And two weeks is a long time in politics, as yesterday’s pipe bomb episode, however resolved, makes crystal clear!
Working through these queries has made me think of all sorts of other ideas; for example, I’d like to lay out liberal candidates and left candidates to see if they really challenged each other, how dominant DCCC (and Emily’s List) were, and all sorts of other questions. If you spot errors, please let me know, and I’ll fix them. And if you have other questions, please ask them, and perhaps I can formulate a query to answer them.
 Both the horserace enthusiasts I use expanded their maps, I’m guessing from an abundance of caution, in case the “Blue Wave” turns out to be a tsunami. Inside Elections: NC-02, NY-27, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-06, IA-04, PA-14, PA-16, TX-31, and WA-03. Cook Report: CA-16, FL-15, FL-16, IL-14, MO-02, NC-02, NY-27, PA-16, SC-01, TX-31, WA-03, AK-01, AZ-06, CO-03, FL-06, FL-18, FL-25, IA-04, MI-01, MI-03, NC-08, NY-01, NY-02, NY-21, OH-10, PA-14, TX-02, TX-22, TX-24, and WI-06. I simply don’t have the capacity to expand the table by that many rows, and for my purpose, which is not calling the horserace, but understanding the Democrat Party as an institution, I did not feel I needed to. So I didn’t.