Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (Status Quo, with a Look at the Winners So Far)

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Here is the latest iteration of my “Table 1” for the 2018 primaries. The structure is the same as the last iteration (‘‘Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (“Wave” Districts, Immigration, and the Supply Chain’). All the districts even remotely in play are listed. There are 80, and surely, if the Democrats are to win the 23 seats they need to win to take control of the House, those 23 are in that 80. All challenger data, except backers, is now updated, including winners (and I added other columns I’ll take advantage of later). As usual, the horserace information is the latest available from the Inside Elections tipsheet (last updated July 20, 2018). This worksheet is off the every-two-weeks schedule, partly because of the workload involved when I have other posting duties, partly because I wanted to get my schedule for updates more in synch with the Inside Elections schedule. Back on June 26, I wrote in Note [1] that the Inside Elections data for that date was gathered

… before the migrant moral panic began, and so not including its effects, if any. My guess, and we’ll see in two weeks [oops] whether I’m right, is that the effect will be “not very much,” assuming that the memory of Obama’s own deportations, for-profit detention centers, and family separations remains vivid in the minds of those targeted, and that liberal Democrat apparatchik virtue signaling posturing, preening, and historical erasure fail to gain traction except among those already sold. In a close election, of course, “not very much” could translate to “just enough.”

So [lambert preens modestly] I was correct, at least according to the horserace data I am using; see Figure 1, below. We are at status quo.

Herewith the table, which gives us interesting results, even if they are null, or hard to interpret. As always, I welcome corrections from readers.

Table 1: Worksheet on House Races, Election 2018 (07-23).

District Date Party Status Incumbent Horserace Horserace (Previous) PVI HRC Challengers
AR-02 05-22 R Hill Likely-R Likely-R R+17 -10.70 Gwen Combs (Women’s March; more.) [m, e, w], Jonathan Dunkley (more) [e][M], Paul Spencer (Rural broadbamd.) [e][M], Clarke Tucker (More.) [DCCC, DP][fM]
AZ-01 08-28 D O’Halleran Tilt-D Tilt-D R+02 -1.10 Miguel Olivas [DP; ]
AZ-02 08-28 R Open McSally Tilt-D Tilt-D R+01 4.90 William Foster [], Matt Heinz [DP; h], Ann Kirkpatrick (more, more; but see here; more.) [EL, DCCC, DP; ][fM], Billy Kovacs [], Mary Matiella (more) [JD; m][M], Barbara Sherry (more) [], Bruce Wheeler (more) [DP; ][M], Yahya Yuksel [DP; ][M]
AZ-08 08-28 R Special VACANT Likely-R Likely-R R+13 -21.10 Judith McHale (McHale dropped out prior to the filing deadline), Bob Musselwhite (More.) [DP; e], Bob Olsen [m, l], Hiral Tipirneni (More; more.) [IN; h][fM], Brianna Westbrook (More; more.) [JD, OR][M]
CA-04 06-05 R McClintock Likely-R Likely-R R+10 -14.70 Regina Bateson. (More.) [o], Roza Calderon (More. Also DSA-endorsed.) [BN, JD, OR; s][M], Robert Lawton (More.) [M], Richard Martin (More), Jessica Morse (More; more.) [m][fM], Rochelle Wilcox (More.) [l]
CA-07 06-05 D Bera Safe-D Safe-D D+03 11.40 [No challenger] (With no challenger, Bera is the winnner.)
CA-10 06-05 R Denham Tilt-R Tilt-R EVEN 3.00 Mike Barkley [DP; m][M], Lisa Battista, Mateo Morelos Bedolla (More.) [DP][M], Michael Eggman, Josh Harder [e][M], Virginia Madueno [EL][fM], Dotty Nygard, Dotty Nygard [M], Seth Vaughn, Sue Zwahlen [DP]
CA-21 06-05 R Valadao Likely-R Likely-R D+05 15.50 TJ Cox (More.) [DCCC], Emilio Huerta (More.)
CA-25 06-05 R Knight Tilt-R Tilt-R EVEN 6.70 Bryan Caforio [JD, OR][M], Kelan Farrell-Smith (More.), Daniel Fleming , Diedra Greenaway (More.) [DP], Katie Hill [EL][fM], Michael Masterman-Smith (More.) [h], Scott McVarish (More.) [], Mary Pallant (more) [DP], Jess Phoenix [OR]
CA-39 06-05 R Open Royce Toss-Up Toss-Up EVEN 8.60 Jay Chen (More.) [m, in, s, e][M], Gil Cisneros (more; more) [DCCC; m], Sam Jammal (more) [DP; ][M], Phil Janowicz (More.) [e], Suzi Park Leggett [DP; ], Ted Rusk [], Cybil Steed (more) [e], Andy Thorburn (more) [OR; e][M], Mai Khanh Tran (more, more) [EL; h]
CA-45 06-05 R Walters Lean-R Lean-R R+03 5.40 Brian Forde, Brian Forde [DP; s], John Graham, Kia Hamadanchy [DP][M], Dave Min (CAP.) [DP], Katie Porter [EL][M], Greg Ramsay, Eric Rywalski, Ron Varasteh
CA-48 06-05 R Rohrabacher Tilt-R Tilt-R R+04 1.70 Hans Keirstead [h][fM], Michael Kotick, Laura Oatman, Rachel Payne (Googler; more) [EL; s], Harley Rouda [IN, DCCC], Deanie Schaarsmith, Omar Siddiqui [in][fM], Tony Zarkades [m][M]
CA-49 06-05 R Open Issa Toss-Up Toss-Up R+01 7.50 Douglas Applegate [JD; m][M], Sara Jacobs (more) [EL, DP; ][M], Paul Kerr (more ) [m][M], Mike Levin (more) [DP; ][M]
CA-50 06-05 R Hunter Likely-R Likely-R R+11 -15.00 Pierre Beauregard (More.) [DP], Josh Butner [m], Ammar Campa-Najjar. (More; more; more.) [IN, JD, OR, DP][M], Gloria Chadwick (More.) [h, w], Glenn Jensen (More), Patrick Malloy (More; more) [M], Alex Spilger (more)
CO-06 06-26 R Coffman Tilt-R Tilt-R D+02 8.90 Jason Crow [DCCC, DP; m], Erik Stanger, Erik Stanger [M], Levi Tillemann [OR, DP][M]
FL-07 08-28 D Murphy Lean-D Lean-D EVEN 7.30 Chardo Richardson [BN, JD; m][M]
FL-13 08-28 D Crist Safe-D Safe-D D+02 3.20 [No challenger]
FL-26 08-28 R Curbelo Tilt-R Tilt-R D+06 16.30 Demetries Grimes [m], Ricky Junquera (more), Steven Machat [DP][M], Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [EL, DCCC], Steve Smith [m]
FL-27 08-28 R Open Ros-Lehtinen Lean-D Lean-D D+05 19.60 Mary Barzee Flores [EL; ], Kristen Rosen Gonzalez (more) [DP; e], Matt Haggman [], Michael Hepburn (more) [BN, JD; e], Mark Anthony Person [], David Richardson (more, more) [DP; ][M], Jose Javier Rodriguez (more) [DP; ], Ken Russell [DP; ], Donna Shalala (more; more) [EL, DP; ]
GA-06 05-22 R Handel Likely-R Likely-R R+08 -1.50 Kevin Abel (Runoff, July 24. Abel.), Steven Knight Griffin [h][fM], Bobby Kaple (More; more. ), Lucy McBath (Runoff, July 24. More; more.) [EL]
GA-07 05-22 R Woodall Likely-R Likely-R R+09 -6.30 Kathleen Allen (More) [h][M], Carolyn Bourdeaux (Run-off July 24. More; more.) [EL, DP; e], Melissa Davis (More.), David Kim (Run-off July 24. More. ) [e], Ethan Pham [fM], Steve Reilly
IA-01 06-05 R Blum Toss-Up Toss-Up D+01 -3.50 Abby Finkenauer [EL, DCCC, DP], Thomas Heckroth [DP], George Ramsey [m, l], Courtney Rowe [JD; m][M]
IA-03 06-05 R Young Likely-R Likely-R R+01 15.30 Cindy Axne (More.) [EL][fM], Pete D’Alessandro (More; more.) [JD, OR; s][M], Eddie Mauro
IL-06 03-20 R Roskam Tilt-R Tilt-R R+02 7.00 Becky Anderson (Becky Anderson), Sean Casten (more) [DCCC][fM], Carole Cheney [DP], Grace Haaf (More), Amanda Howland [DP; e], Ryan Huffman [DP][M], Kelly Mazeski (“A Medicare-for-all public option.”) [fM], Geoffrey Petzel (More), Austin Songer, Becky Anderson Wilkins (more), Jennifer Zordani
IL-12 03-20 R Bost Lean-R Lean-R R+05 -14.80 David Bequette [m], Brendan Kelly (more) [DCCC; m, in, l]
IL-13 03-20 R R. Davis Likely-R Likely-R R+03 -5.50 Jonathan Ebel (More.) [m, in], David Gill (More; more.) [h][M], Erik Jones (More; more.) [DP; l][fM], Betsy Londrigan (More.) [EL, DCCC, DP; w][fM], Angel Sides (More) [M], Benjamin Webb (More.) [e], Mark Wicklund (More.)
IN-02 05-08 R Walorski Likely-R Likely-R R+11 -23.20 Aaron Bush, Douglas Carpenter (More) [h][fM], Pat Hackett (More) [fM], Mel Hall (More.) [OR, DP; h], Yatish Joshi (More) [DP][fM], Roland Leech, John Petroff (More)
KS-02 08-07 R Open Jenkins Lean-R Lean-R R+10 -18.40 Paul Davis [DCCC, DP], Nathan Schmidt (more) [DP]
KS-03 08-07 R Yoder Lean-R Lean-R R+04 1.30 Sharice Davids (More; more) [EL], Chris Haulmark (More), Reggie Marselus, Mike McCamon (“Create a single-payer Option”) [s], Tom Niermann [e], Andrea Ramsey (More.) [EL], Jay Sidie, Brent Welder [BN, JD, OR, DP][M], Sylvia Williams
KY-06 05-22 R Barr Lean-R Lean-R R+09 -15.30 Jim Gray (more) [DP], Theodore Green, Daniel Kemph, Amy McGrath [DCCC, DP; m], Reggie Thomas [DP; e], Geoff Young (perennial candidate)
ME-02 06-12 R Poliquin Lean-R Lean-R R+02 -17.60 Phil Cleaves (Dexter rural mail carrier), Jonathan Fulford (more; withdrawal.) [DP][fM], Jared Golden (more; ) [GS, DP; m][M], Craig Olson (More.) [DP][fM], Tim Rich (More.), Lucas St. Clair (More; more; more; more) [M]
MI-06 08-27 R Upton Likely-R Likely-R R+04 -8.40 David Benac (More) [DP; e][M], Paul Clements (More) [e][M], Rich Eichholz [s][fM], George Franklin (More) [DP], Eponine Garrod (More; more.) [s], Aida Gray [m], Matt Longjohn (More) [h]
MI-07 08-07 R Walberg Likely-R Likely-R R+07 -17.00 Gretchen Driskell (More.) [DCCC, DP], Steven Friday (More; more.) [m, s][M]
MI-08 08-27 R Bishop Lean-R Lean-R R+04 -6.70 Elissa Slotkin (Money race; “the real deal”; Biden endorses.) [EL, DCCC, DP; m, in][fM], Chris Smith
MI-11 08-27 R Open Trott Toss-Up Toss-Up R+04 -4.40 Tim Greimel (Site not responsive.) [DP], Suneel Gupta, Dan Haberman [fM], Fayrouz Saad [JD, DP][M], Haley Stevens [DP]
MN-01 08-14 D Open Walz Toss-Up Toss-Up R+05 -14.90 Johnny Akzam [][M], Dan Feehan (more, more, more) [DCCC, DP; m], Vicki Jensen [DP; ], Bob Ries (more) [m], Joe Sullivan [], Rich Wright (more) [DP; m, l][M]
MN-02 08-14 R Lewis Toss-Up Toss-Up R+02 -1.20 Angie Craig (more) [EL, DCCC; ], Jeff Erdmann (more) [e][M]
MN-03 08-14 R Paulsen Lean-R Lean-R D+01 9.40 Brian Santa Maria [M], Adam Jennings (more) [m], Dean Phillips [DCCC]
MN-07 08-14 D Peterson Likely-D Likely-D R+12 -30.80 [No challenger]
MN-08 08-14 D Open Nolan Toss-Up Toss-Up R+04 -15.60 Kirsten Hagen Kennedy (more) [DP; ], Michelle Lee [][M], Jason Metsa (more) [DP; ], Leah Phifer (more) [in][M], Joe Radinovich [DP; ]
MT-01 06-05 R Gianforte Likely-R Likely-R R+11 -20.60 John Heenan (More; more; more.) [s][M], Grant Kier (More; more.) [DP], John Meyer, Lynda Moss (More.) [DP], Jared Pettinato (More; ) [DP; l], Kathleen Williams (More; more; more.) [DP], Tom Woods (More. ) [DP; e]
NC-09 05-08 R Pittenger Tilt-R Tilt-R R+08 -11.60 Christian Cano (More; more.) [fM], Dan McCready (More; more.) [DCCC; m], Maria Warren (More.) [e]
NC-13 05-08 R Budd Likely-R Likely-R R+06 -9.40 Adam Coker (More.) [DP], Kathy Manning (More; ; more; more.) [EL, DCCC], Beniah McMiller
NM-02 06-05 R Open Pearce Lean-R Lean-R R+06 -10.20 David Alcon (More.), David Baake (More.), Ronald Fitzherbert, Madeleine Hildebrandt [GS; m, e], Tony Martinez (More; more.) [m], Angel Pena (More; more.), Xochitl Torres Small (More; more; more.) [EL, DCCC, DP], Adolf Zubia (More.)
NE-02 05-15 R Bacon Tilt-R Tilt-R R+04 -2.20 Brad Ashford [DCCC, DP], Kara Eastman (On her conversion to #MedicareForAll; more.) [JD; e][M]
NH-01 09-11 D Open Shea-Porter Tilt-D Tilt-D R+02 -1.60 Mark S. Mackenzie (more, more) [DP; ], Deaglan McEachern (more) [DP; ], Mindi Messmer (more) [BN; s][M], Terence O’Rourke [m, l][M], Chris Pappas (more) [DP; ], Levi Sanders (more; more) [][M], Lincoln Soldati [l], Maura Sullivan (more) [EL, DP; m]
NJ-02 06-05 R Open LoBiondo Tilt-D Tilt-D R+01 -4.60 Will Cunningham (more) [DP; ], Sean Thom (more) [e][M], Jeff Van Drew (more) [DCCC, DP; ], Tanzie Youngblood (more) [e]
NJ-03 06-05 R MacArthur Likely-R Likely-R R+02 -6.20 Rich Dennison (More.) [DP], Katherine Hartman (More.), Andrew Kim (More; more.) [DCCC; m, in], Frederick John Lavergne (More) [DP]
NJ-05 06-05 D Gottheimer Safe-D Safe-D R+03 -1.10 [No challenger] (Now safe D.)
NJ-07 06-05 R Lance Tilt-R Tilt-R R+03 1.10 Peter Jacob (On the Justice Democrats; Congressional candidate plans ‘Medicare-for-all’ town hall in Bedminster) [BN, JD, OR][M], Goutam Jois, Tom Malinowski [DCCC, DP]
NJ-11 06-05 R Open Frelinghuysen Tilt-D Tilt-D R+03 -1.00 Mitchell Cobert [l], Jack Gebbia (more) [m], Tamara Harris (more) [], Alison Heslin [], Mikie Sherrill (more) [EL, DCCC; m, l][M], Mark Washburne [e][M]
NV-03 06-12 D Open Rosen Tilt-D Tilt-D R+02 -1.00 Richard Hart [], Susie Lee (more; more)) [EL, DCCC; e], Jack Love [][M], Guy Pinjuv (more) [s], Steve Schiffman [], Eric Stoltz [], Michael Weiss (more) [][M]
NV-04 06-12 D Open Kihuen Likely-D Likely-D D+03 4.90 John Anzalone (more) [e], Steven Horsford (more) [DCCC, DP; ], Patricia Spearman (more) [DP; m][M], Allison Stephens (more) [DP; e], Amy Vilela (more) [BN, IN, JD; ][M], Sid Zeller [m, in]
NY-11 06-26 R Donovan Likely-R Likely-R R+03 -9.80 Michael DeVito, Jr. (More.) [m, e][M], Zach Emig (Bond trader; more.) [M], Radhakrishna Mohan (More), Max Rose (More; more; more.) [DCCC; m, l][fM], Paul Sperling (More), Omar Vaid (More) [fM]
NY-19 06-26 R Faso Tilt-R Tilt-R R+02 -6.80 Jeff Beals [JD; in, e][M], David Clegg [M], Erin Collier (more) [EL, DP], Antonio Delgado [fM], Brian Flynn [M], Gareth Rhodes [DP][M], Pat Ryan [m, in][fM]
NY-22 06-26 R Tenney Tilt-R Tilt-R R+06 -15.50 Anthony Brindisi [DCCC, DP][fM]
NY-24 06-26 R Katko Likely-R Likely-R D+03 3.60 Dana Balter (More; more; more) [DFA, IN, PCCC, DP; e][M], Scott Comegys (More; more; more) [DP], Philip LaTessa [DP], Anne Messenger (More; more) [fM], Juanita Perez Williams (More; more; more: more.) [DCCC, DP; m, e][fM]
OH-01 05-08 R Chabot Likely-R Likely-R R+05 -6.60 Robert Barr (More), Aftab Pureval (More; more; more.) [DCCC; l], Laura Ann Weaver (More) [h][fM]
OH-12 05-08 R Special VACANT Tilt-R Tilt-R R+07 -11.30 Ed Albertson (More; more) [m][fM], Crystal Lett (More: ) [w], Danny O’Connor (More; more; more) [DP], Jackie Patton (More; more; ) [h, w], John Peters [e], John Russell (More; more.) [IN; ][M], Zach Scott (More; more; more.) [l], Doug Wilson [h][M]
OH-14 05-08 R Joyce Likely-R Likely-R R+05 -11.50 Betsy Rader [EL]
PA-01 05-15 R Fitzpatrick Tilt-R Tilt-R D+31 61.30 Steve Bacher [DP; e][M], Rachel Reddick [EL; m], Scott Wallace (more) [DP]
PA-05 05-15 R Open Meehan Likely-D Likely-D R+13 -28.80 Larry Arata [e], George Badey (more) [DP; ], Shelly Chauncey (more) [in][fM], Margo Davidson [DP; ], Thaddeus Kirkland [DP; ], Richard Lazer (more) [DP; ][M], Lindy Li (more) [], Ashley Lunkenheimer (more) [l], Dan Muroff (more; more) [DP; ], Mary Gay Scanlon [], Molly Sheehan (more) [s][M], Greg Vitali (more) [DP; ], David Wertime [], Theresa Wright []
PA-06 05-15 R Costello Likely-D Likely-D R+02 0.60 Chrissy Houlahan (more; more) [EL, DCCC; m]
PA-07 05-15 R Open Dent Tilt-D Tilt-D R+01 2.30 David Clark [], Rick Daugherty [DP; ], Greg Edwards [JD; ][M], John Morganelli [DP; l], Roger Ruggles (more) [e], Susan Wild (more; more) [EL; l]
PA-08 05-15 R Cartwright Lean-D Likely-D R+02 -0.20 [No challenger]
PA-10 05-15 R Perry Likely-R Likely-R R+16 -35.90 Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson (More; more; more; more) [EL, DP; w], Eric Ding (More; more) [s, h][fM], Alan Howe (More; more; more) [m][fM], George Scott (More; more; more) [m, in][fM]
PA-17 05-15 R Rothfus Toss-Up Toss-Up R+01 -10.10 Conor Lamb [m, l], Ray Linsenmayer (Dropped out (oddly). More; more; more.)
TX-07 03-06 R Culberson Tilt-R Tilt-R R+07 1.40 Joshua Butler [h, e], James Cargas [DP; ], Lizzie Pannill Fletcher [EL, DCCC], Laura Moser (more) [JD, DP], Ivan Sanchez [DP][fM], Alex Triantaphyllis, Jason Westin (background; reflections on his loss) [h]
TX-21 03-06 R Open Smith Likely-R Likely-R R+10 -10.00 Derrick Crowe (More; more) [JD, DP][M], Joseph Kopser (More; more; more; more; more; more; more; more) [m][fM], Elliott McFadden (More) [DP][M], Rixi Melton [e][M], Mary Wilson (More; more; more) [e][M]
TX-23 03-06 R Hurd Toss-Up Toss-Up R+01 3.40 Gina Ortiz Jones [EL, DCCC, DP; m, l][M], Rick Trevino [JD, OR, DP; ][M]
TX-32 03-06 R Sessions Likely-R Likely-R R+05 1.90 Colin Allred (More; more; more; more) [DCCC, DP; ][fM], David Henry, Awbrey Hughlett, Steve Love, [m, s], Todd Maternowski, Ed Meier (More; more) [DP][fM], Danielle Pellett (More) [m, s], Chris Suprun, Darrell Rodriguez, George Rodriguez (More) [fM], Lillian Salerno (More: more) [DP][fM], Brett Shipp (More; more) [fM]
UT-04 06-26 R Love Lean-R Lean-R R+13 -6.70 Sheldon Kirkham (more), Ben McAdams [DCCC, DP], Darlene McDonald [JD; s][M], Morgan Shepherd, Tom Taylor [s][M]
VA-02 06-12 R Taylor Likely-R Likely-R R+03 -3.40 Elaine Luria (More; more) [EL, DCCC; m], Karen Mallard (More) [DP; e]
VA-05 06-12 R Garrett Likely-R Likely-R R+06 -11.10 Leslie Cockburn (More; more) [EL][M], Ben Cullop (More; more; more) [e], (More) [m], Adam Slate, Andrew Sneathern (More; more) [l][fM]
VA-07 06-12 R Brat Lean-R Lean-R R+06 -6.50 Abigail Spanberger (More; more) [EL; in, l, e], Dan Ward (More; more; more) [m]
VA-10 06-12 R Comstock Toss-Up Toss-Up D+01 10.00 Shadi Ayyas [DP; h], Julia Biggins (more) [s], Alison Kiehl Friedman (more) [DP; in], Daniel Helmer (more) [m][fM], Julien Modica [], Paul Pelletier (more) [l], Michael Pomerleano (more) [], Lindsey Davis Stover (more) [DP; ], Jennifer Wexton (more) [DP; l]
WA-05 08-07 R McMorris Rodgers Likely-R Likely-R R+08 -20.10 Lisa Brown (More; more; more) [EL, DCCC, DP; e], Matt Sutherland
WA-08 08-07 R Open Reichert Toss-Up Toss-Up EVEN 3.00 Poga Ahn [], Thomas Cramer [][M], Shannon Hader (more) [h], Robert Hunziker (more) [][M], Brian Kostenko [][M], Jason Rittereiser (more; more.) [IN; l][M], Kim Schrier (more) [EL, IN; h]
WI-01 08-14 R Open Ryan Lean-R Lean-R R+19 -10.30 Randy Bryce (more) [JD, DCCC][fM], Cathy Myers (more) [e][M]
WV-03 05-08 R Open Jenkins Likely-R Likely-R R+23 -49.20 Paul Davis [DCCC], Janice Hagerman, Shirley Love (More; ) [DP], Richard Ojeda (More; more; more) [DP; m][fM]
  • Bio keys are m, i, l, and o) for Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Other (except I didn’t find any Others this time[5]). A candidate who worked for the CIA is keyed i. A candidate who worked in Law enforcement and the military is keyed “lm.” “Law Enforcement” is conceived broadly, including not only police but district attorneys.
  • Backer keys are BN, EL, GS, IN, JD, OR, and DCCC, Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Great Slate, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and (of course) the DCCC. In addition, there is a DP key, for members of the Democrat Party network, elected and otherwise, and S, for challengers inspired by Sanders.
  • Policy keys are M, fM, for Medicare for All, and any of the various bait-and-switch alternatives proposed by think tanks like CAP, or centrists like Merkeley. Some judgement is involved, based on the verbiage. “Single payer” always merits an “M,” for example.

Figure 1: Status Changes by District

As you can see, we are at status quo with respect to “the wave,” regardless of the babies!!!!! moral panic. The only change is, in fact, in a direction counter to Democrat desires. Perhaps a continued focus on Russia will be the catalyst. (To be fair, Watergate took a long time to get rolling, too. And still being fair, it’s not clear that a left focus on policy is taking hold either, in the districts where it has been allowed to, or forced its way in. The Ocasio-Cortez race is not on this list because NY-14 is a safe Democrat district that won’t shift control of the House. It is, however, interesting to speculate that her victory — in essence, and please forgive the military metaphor, a sniper’s shot to the head of a Democrat baron — sparked the current uptick in centrist scare stories about socialism ZOMG!!!!!)

Figure 2: The Winners So Far

I’m putting this out here, but I’m not seeing screamingly obvious patterns, though perhaps you, readers, will do better. At a glance, there are more fake Medicare candidates (“universal access,” or some such focus-grouped verbiage) than real ones (“single payer Medicare for All,” “HR 676”).[1] And there are more “MILO” candidates (especially “m”) than I am comfortable with, because I’m concerned with the open militarization of the Democrat Party. (However, as Yves reminds us, military service is not necessarily a bar to social justice concerns, even if at the individual and not the aggregate level.)

Figure 3: Districts Likely Targeted

The Democrat logic seems to be to target districts that Clinton narrowly lost or won, so the query returns results for the districts that are +/- 5% for Clinton (“HRC”). So far, however, these districts are status quo, with one exception. Obviously, that’s incompatible with “the wave” thesis, if you conceive of “the wave” as some sort of popular uprising by people who are not already Clinton voters or activists. If your version of “the wave” is ginormous amounts of dark money spent on the Air War (television) and lots of celebrity visits, then it’s most sensible to get yourself a beach chair on the Vineyard and wait it out until after Labor Day, when the fun begins. If your version of “the wave” is left-style Ground War door-knocking, that’s not going to show up anywhere yet (especially with local news the way that it is). So the future lies ahead!


[1] Normally, a “path to Medicare” is bait-and-switch verbiage, a la the so-called “public option” in 2009. However, in this round of updating bios, I came across some candidates who seemed serious, in that they worked out what they considered a reasonable path in language that clearly was of their own devising, and not from some consultant’s playbook. Fake or not? Sometimes a judgment call…

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.


    1. Azazello

      Hey Slim,
      Add Az-02 – Ann leads all fundraisers thanks to DCCC Red-to-Blue money, Heinz is second, Matiella third.

      1. edmondo

        Mary Matiella may as well be on the side of a milk carton. She’s been MIA while Heinz and Kirpatrick slug it out on TV. I want to vote against Kirkpatrick and Matiella is the one I most closely match up with politically but no one can find her. I will probably vote for Matt Heinz in the primary and vote Green n November when Kirkpatrick wins the nomination.

        1. Azazello

          Mary’s around, she’s been knocking on a lot of doors. She’s a Justice Democrat so she won’t take corporate money and television is expensive. She has Grijalva’s endorsement and that’s enough for me. She may have a chance if Heinz and Kirkpatrick do enough damage to each other with negative TV ads. Full disclosure: I’m a campaign volunteer.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      It is true that this is unjust. However:

      1) A party must play to win whether the field is muddy or not;

      2) The Democrats, institutionally, aren’t doing squat to bring new or discouraged voters into the system, and I’m not talking about getting a one-time grant from some squillionaire to register some demographic in a few states.

      Of course, both parties functionally collaborating to exclude most voters and then fight over a diminishing base that skews wealthy and educated does kinda makes sense….

  1. John k

    Would be nice to see which of these close races feature a m4a progressive that won the primary or, if not yet run, still has a decent chance to win it.

    Btw… are new elections for party key positions, that I think are held after nov election, made with the old house members, or does that election wait for the new ones to be seated in Jan? E.g., If Crowley does lose in nov, does he get to vote?

  2. Jeffrey Radice

    Lambert, you should revisit your criteria for “remotely in play”.

    I would say both of the following are remotely in play, and there are probably more like this nationwide:

    KS-04: Thompson only lost to Estes by 7% in the special election and has been campaigning since, with the ground game (see e.g.: Bernie + AOC rally last Friday in Wichita).

    TX-31: Hegar out-raised Carter by a country mile (due to her viral video) and has the right background to win here — She’s a veteran, and native of the district. I work in the southern part of this district, and there has been explosive growth here in southern Williamson County over the past few years — huge amounts of housing development. Demographically, the parts of this district in the Austin-Cedar Park-Leander (and even Round Rock) corridor are much closer to left-leaning Austin than they are to Carter’s Tea Party Caucus membership. From Round Rock south, these are basically bedroom communities for Austin. Hegar also has a compelling story and can arguably pull the active duty and veteran voters in and around Killeen away from Carter. I don’t know what her ground game looks like, but this race will be competitive.

    An argument could be made that any TX district mentioned in this story could be considered remotely in play, but definitely so for TX-31, given the demographic shift in the district and the biography of Hegar.

  3. cocomaan

    The Democrats have already poisoned the election well and called the 2018 elections into question wrt Russian meddling. It remains a picture perfect excuse for why the party can’t seem to win. Same will go for 2020.

    It’s a really dangerous game, but it’s the card being played already.

  4. DonCoyote

    Lambert, thanks as always for maintaining/updating.

    Michigan primaries are August 7th. You have MI-07 correct, but have 08/27 for MI-06, MI-08, and MI-11.

    In general, what do people think of later primaries? (Lots of them in August: Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Washing, Wisconsin, representing 21 of the seats on Lambert’s list). I personally like them, more time for “…letting a hundred flowers blossom and a hundred schools of thought contend”, less time for “coalescing” and “getting behind the winning candidate” (TINA). I think I would actually like primaries in September (go New Hampshire!) and generals in November, but they haven’t put me in charge yet.

    1. edmondo

      Isn’t the real reason for August primaries so that those “liberal” college students don’t vote from campus?

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