By Lara Merling, who works as an economics researcher at the International Trade Union Confederation. Originally published at openDemocracy
ver the past year, a rebranded IMF returned to Latin America with promises of loan agreements that would be different than the dreaded “structural adjustment programmes” of the past. Behind statements about inclusive growth and protecting the most vulnerable, are policies similar to the structural adjustments of the Washington consensus era. While the Argentina programme has already imploded, leaving behind soaring poverty and a collapsed economy, the IMF seems determined to push forward its agreement with Ecuador.
Things have not been smooth for the IMF in Ecuador. Massive protests erupted after an attempt to impose fuel price hikes as part of the IMF agreement – forcing the Ecuadorian government to withdraw the measures and temporarily put its agreement with the IMF on hold. The IMF recently announced it plans to resume its programme in Ecuador after the country’s National Assembly passed a tax reform bill.
However, the IMF’s press release fails to mention that the bill contains several provisions that aim to weaken and essentially render Ecuador’s capital controls ineffective. Ecuador introduced a series of measures to discourage capital flight and prevent speculative flows of capital back in 2007 by taxing outflows that did not meet the criteria of productive foreign direct investment (FDI). The measures have been successful in strengthening macroeconomic stability and raising revenues for the government.
It is important to note that under the original bill, inflows financing productive activities and staying in the country for at least one year were already exempt from this tax. It also specified that outflows to a list of tax havens cannot be exempt from paying the tax.
The new bill passed by the Ecuadorian assembly removes the provision on tax havens, shortens the wait period for some investments to be exempt from the tax, and withdraws it altogether for equity and security markets as well as financial investments.
The changes to the law effectively open the door to financial speculation. Furthermore, by removing the tax haven provision, the new law allows both domestic and foreign investors to reroute their money as “phantom FDI”– avoiding both income and capital outflow taxes.
The measures included in this bill are in direct contradiction with the Fund’s supposedly evolving position on capital controls. A recent article in the Financial Times praised the IMF’s warming towards capital controls, going over a series of statements made by high ranking IMF officials on what they refer to as “capital flow management”. These statements are in line with the IMF’s institutional view on capital flow management released in 2012. That position recognized that capital account liberalization might not be the appropriate measure under all circumstances, moving away from the neoliberal dogma of open capital accounts.
It is also stated in the IMF’s Articles of Agreement that Fund resources cannot be used to “meet a sustained outflow of capital”. However, this is exactly what happened in Argentina, where $36.6 billion left the country as the IMF disbursed $44.5 billion. Sustained capital flight was undeniably a main contributor to the colossal failure of the IMF’s latest Argentina programme.
It seems natural to ask under these circumstances and given the context, why the IMF is pushing for measures that weaken Ecuador’s current capital controls. Since the tax on outflows already did not apply to productive, long-term investments, attracting more (real) FDI cannot justify these measures. On top of all this, the unpopular measures that the IMF demanded and that fuelled massive protests earlier this fall have only been postponed.
It appears the IMF will double down on an austerity programme in Ecuador, which is likely to result in a prolonged recession and growth projections that never materialize (a common feature of IMF programmes). It is thus unrealistic to believe that the measures in the new tax bill will massively attract new productive investments. The most likely outcome is an increase in volatile capital flows that will further threaten the macroeconomic stability of Ecuador’s dollarized economy. Even in the programme itself, the IMF acknowledges that the current environment, which has only worsened since the agreement was signed, might not be the best time to remove the tax on transfers abroad.
The IMF nevertheless states that these measures are “laying the groundwork for robust and sustainable growth, while protecting the most vulnerable”. Yet the tax bill does nothing of the sort. It enables local elites to take their money out of the country cost-free; it makes tax avoidance and speculation easier; and it introduces regressive taxation measures, placing the burden of adjustment on Ecuador’s most vulnerable. Unfortunately, rather than learning from its mistakes in Argentina, the IMF appears to be repeating them.
Yet the tax bill does nothing of the sort. It enables local elites to take their money out of the country cost-free; it makes tax avoidance and speculation easier; and it introduces regressive taxation measures, placing the burden of adjustment on Ecuador’s most vulnerable.
Stupid me. I thought that was the objective of keeping the country an IMF (US) vassal.
Yes, errr no, you are not stupid at all. They do with all the intention what they know is detrimental because the objective is to keep the country on its knees. Next step is to put some evangelical on top. Ecuatorians should not forget what God orders.
I share what I believe is Marx’s sentiment toward organized (corporate) religion. “Religion is the opiate of the masses.”
I suspect the reason the Romans recognized Christianity as their “State Religion” was about having the Church part of the apparatus to control the populace with threats of damnation in the afterlife. However, pointing out that one’s reward was in the afterlife, because no one had ever returned and confirmed in the afterlife, was negated by the absence of sinners also returning and confirming the warnings of hellfire and damnation.
“I’m a starving, poor peasant (17th century), millennial (21st Century)”
“You will get your reward (Church 17th Century), Politician (21st Century)!!!”
“After you die!”
Same old, same old….
IOW: “Go die.”
Let’s not forget that the native uprising captured the capital, and the army did NOT remove them. They won the war; the IMF – and Moreno’s gov’t – are just pretending. Doubling down when they’ve lost implies a very low level of competence, even at being evil.
Evidently they’ll have to actually overthrow Moreno.
Indeed! I’m shocked, shocked…
It is not a mistake. It is one feature of the overall policy. What Synoia said.
Eric Helleiner’s The Forgotten Foundations of Bretton Woods is an eye-opener re the devolution of the US stance on capital controls. I’m probably losing significant nuances here, but in the 30s, when the New Dealers had some swat and they were concerned about Nazi inroads into Latin America, they espoused an orientation to Latin American economic development that would allow national governments considerable influence over capital, including the use of capital controls. This attitude carried over into their initial workup of the Bretton Woods framework as conceived by White and Morgenthau . US finance steadily chipped away at this position until they won out in the late 40s and early 50s.
I’ve grown accustomed to interpretations of this or that humane US policy as reflecting worry about Soviet influence. It was a large surprise to see the Nazis playing that role.
” rather than learning from its mistakes in Argentina, the IMF appears to be repeating them.”
IOW, they aren’t mistakes at all, they’re deliberates. Asset stripping of victim economies is the real purpose of the IMF. Abolishing it, as the anti-globalization movement demanded 20 years (!) ago, is the only constructive approach. The pronouncements from staff, pretending to have “learned,” are just window dressing.
So I’m curious as to how long Latin America will continue to put up with such treatment. Isn’t this at least Argentina’s third go ’round with IMF loans? How many South American leaders can have failed by now to read their John Perkins (Confessions of an Economic Hitman)? How many more coups overthrowing development oriented governments with extractive despotic ones does it take?
Maybe the real question is what can any of them really do about this ongoing colonialist opera and who might help them against American claims of hegemony? Might the next interloper be China or Russia? There’s a precedent in Venezuela…
The alternative is to become a Venezuela or Cuba. The US ia demonstrating the hegemony.
The only solution appears to break the US dollar.
The IMF is setting up a previously stable country for bankruptcy and pillaging by corporations, the wealthy and big banks. How many times have we seen this before? This is criminal on a global scale.