2:00PM Water Cooler 10/22/2020

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161 comments

1. fresno dan October 22, 2020 at 2:09 pm

   Patient readers, I just spent 45 minutes fighting to get iOS Apple Mail on my iPad to send my own mail.
   An Apple a day causes… consternation, depression, rage, conniptions, dismay, anxiety, paranoia and rage.
   That’s the first minute – than it gets much, much, MUCH worse….
   1. Dan October 22, 2020 at 5:03 pm

      I switched to Postbox for OSX and am much happier. Apple Mail is a clunky, embarrassing program.
      1. BlakeFelix October 23, 2020 at 8:29 am

         I finally kicked my podcasts with ITunes habit after they updated it and made it worse again. Now I use podcast addict, which I still don’t love, but I feel like I am out of an abusive relationship lol

         Oh, as long as I am being borderline off topic and irrelevant, am I the only one who gets a page of source code when they click on the subscribe to post comments button? I’d like to see replies, but I can’t the way it is. I use Chrome and haven’t tried much in the way of alternatives.
2. Off The Street October 22, 2020 at 2:09 pm

   Handy Mac cache item to help clear away your troubles :)
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorOctober 22, 2020 at 2:51 pm

      nvram -c on the Mac, which is a real machine with a shell, is GENIUS. However, my problem is on iOS. Restarting the iPad should clear cache.
      1. Moshe Braner October 22, 2020 at 6:10 pm

         I have used the (non-free, i.e., I am the customer not the product) email service from fastmail.com for many years. Very satisfied. Worth every penny. Waaaaay better, in a browser, than gmail, and I also use it with Thunderbird (imap) and with the Fastmail Android app. I don’t use iOS, but I see that Fastmail also has an iOS app.
         https://www.fastmail.com/help/clients/iphone.html
         1. Acacia October 22, 2020 at 9:05 pm

            +1

            I am also on fastmail, under the domain mail-central. I agree with Moshe — it is totally worth the money.

            Lambert, if you son’t want to try the Fastmail iOS app, you could use the existing iOS mail app and your existing workflow, but instead with fastmail as the server. In the future, if you ever had problems (and I suspect they disappear as soon as you switch to a better server/service), you could speak with fastmail support and a tech would help diagnose the problem. You’ll never get that level of support from Yahoo.
3. Jennifer in Cleveland October 22, 2020 at 2:18 pm

   Signature Matching in Ohio: This is one of the top reasons I am voting in-person on election day in Ohio. For whatever reason, I’ve never developed a legit, identifying signature, and I’m certain that very reasonable people would think it didn’t match.
   1. L October 22, 2020 at 2:43 pm

      I would argue that is in fact the point. The ideology of the right on voting is aptly summed up by Amy Coney Barrett’s comment in one ruling that voting is restricted to “virtuous citizens” (unlike guns). The game of adding challenges like signatures etc. is to provide different handles for low level judges to restrict the franchise.
      1. John Anthony La Pietra October 23, 2020 at 5:17 pm

         In a similar vein, this story (awareness of which I believe I owe to nc):

         https://www.vice.com/en/article/g5pvgm/we-dont-need-cops-to-enforce-traffic-laws

         The subhead/summary of which says: “The law invented the concept of officer discretion so white drivers could get fewer speeding tickets. If we want to have fair and equitable policing, we’ll have to get over our hatred for speed cameras.”
4. Michael Hudson October 22, 2020 at 2:24 pm

   Re the usual journalistic polling comments, Lambert, I must say I prefer
   “Voters reject Trump by 13 points”
   instead of
   “Voters favor Biden by 13 points.”

   What comes first, after all ….? :)-
   1. a different chris October 22, 2020 at 4:42 pm

      Oh yeah every one of the above (and elsewhere) where I read “Biden is up”/”Biden is leading” my head immediately translates it to “Trump is down”/”Trump is lagging”.

      Although like I said, I don’t believe polls anyway (Hey! 2000 people! Wow that really frames the election!).

      One stiff after another since… since I dunno. I do think people voted *for* Bush, the fact that I cannot figure out why does not disprove it (aka I am not Chris M.)
5. Laughingsong October 22, 2020 at 2:25 pm

   I use Apple Mail to mail myself all the time but don’t have these issues. I know that this is just one person waving an anecdote, however because of this you may want to consider checking other things that factor into email: ISP, mail provider, router. Could be that any one of these starts throttling the behavior after a couple of instances on a given IP address, assuming it’s malign
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorOctober 22, 2020 at 2:55 pm

      > I use Apple Mail to mail myself all the time

      So I’m not the only one! But do you use iOS? I believe you are correct that it’s throttling behavior, but I’m at a loss as to what triggers it. My thought was that it was the VPN. I use Yahoo, therefore Yahoo servers, and so my thought was been that that one or two servers are configured differently from the others. The behavior is like an overflow — occasionally there will be a lag, and five or six will be deposited back in my mailbox.
      1. Milton October 22, 2020 at 3:59 pm

         I had these reminder emails up to the date listed below.

         Hey Yahoo Member,

         Head’s up: As of 20 October 2020, Yahoo Mail will no longer support third-party applications (such as third-party email, calendar, or contact applications) using outdated sign-in methods. That just means if you’re still signing in to your Yahoo account via another email application, like the default email application on your phone, you need to make some quick updates to ensure your mailbox isn’t interrupted.

         Here are your options:

         Option 1: We recommend that you access your email using our free Yahoo Mail app for iOS and Android or simply go to mail.yahoo.com to access Yahoo Mail on the web.

         Option 2: Keep your current, non-Yahoo app, BUT follow a few steps to get it to sync with our secure sign-in method. The steps vary across different email applications, but in most cases, you will have to remove your Yahoo account from the app and then add it back again to update the sign-in security. Use the links below to follow the specific steps for your current application:

         iOS Mail Gmail Samsung Mail Others
      2. Acacia October 22, 2020 at 4:25 pm

         I email stuff to myself from iOS all the time and I have never seen this issue. I would also suspect the email server and I would not trust yahoo. Have you tried a different service?

         Another option: https://airmailapp.com/
         1. Acacia October 22, 2020 at 4:41 pm

            Addendum: I would seriously consider moving off yahoo. Years ago, I moved to a paid email service called mail-central, and I would never go back to the freetard service from my ISP. Since then, I’ve never had problems and they have excellent tech support. I’ve watched my friends struggle with email problems because they insist on free services that come with no and/or crap tech support and then they endure hours/weeks/months of trouble. One friend was randomly losing email for months. His ISP mail server would accept a message without error and then fail to send.

            Your time is important. If you could pay twenty bucks a year for flawless email service that has good support, wouldn’t it be worthwhile?
      3. Laughingsong October 22, 2020 at 7:10 pm

         iOS 13 still but yeah, iOS. My email provider is almost always the culprit when I have issues. My VPN is never implicated in throttling although it crashes sometimes (then of course nothing works).

         If it is your email provider then another app won’t help.

         The only other thing I can think of is to Set up another email address and then configure it on the iPad as well. But then I’m only a middlin computer tech. The commentariat here probably has better ideas
6. petal October 22, 2020 at 2:29 pm

   Upper Valley restaurant owner says delivery apps bad for business
   “There is no doubt that the pandemic has taken its toll on restaurants, and it’s also forced the industry to rethink how it does business. But one independent restaurant owner in the Upper Valley says third-party delivery apps could be hurting restaurants in the long-term.” More details at the link.
   1. lyman alpha blob October 22, 2020 at 3:37 pm

      Smart guy. I really don’t understand the appeal of delivery apps at all. I can call my local Chinese restaurant directly and have them send their own driver over already. Presumably, if delivery were profitable a restaurant was already doing it. Seems pretty obvious that paying a 3rd party and adding costs isn’t going to suddenly make something that wasn’t profitable before suddenly become a money maker.

      ‘Gig economy’ apps are all designed for plunder, not for any societal benefit.
      1. neo-realist October 22, 2020 at 8:47 pm

         With apps and online ordering via websites, you’re able to present a clearly written out order without the risk of misinterpretation or an item being left out from a person receiving an order via the phone who attempts to write it down at lightning speed. Ordering via app or website allows to you pay and leave a tip in one swoop, so that you can quickly consummate the receipt of the delivery without any further engagement other than a “thank you” rather than rummaging around for tip money and possibly not having a sufficient amount to tip in hand.
   2. eg October 22, 2020 at 10:24 pm

      I will not use a delivery app during the pandemic — I’m trying to HELP my local restaurants, not hurt them.
7. Mark Gisleson October 22, 2020 at 2:42 pm

   Martin Gurri interview is clear headed and one of the most politically intelligible things I’ve read in ages. Saved to my ‘read over and over again’ collection.
   1. Amfortas the hippie October 22, 2020 at 3:45 pm

      i agree.
      the implications are quite chilling.
      FTA:” People seem to worry a lot today about the rise of authoritarianism or the return of fascism. I honestly don’t get that. The digital tsunami has produced a crisis of authority for all forms of power. How a Mussolini could arise in the age of social media, and overthrow democracy without an organization, a program, an ideology, or even a Mussolini, is something I’d like to have explained to me. (And if the answer is Trump, forgive me if I snicker.) Under present conditions, the march on Rome would have devolved to a bunch of selfies on a Facebook page.”

      and
      “So when you ask whether today’s protests will ever lead to anything, the answer is probably not. They have little positive content. My concern is that they might lead to nothing – to a politics of righteous annihilation and a society lobotomized of all memory. The lust for destruction, rather than fascism or some “successor ideology,” looms as the great threat to democracy today.”

      it’s the Ontological Crises that i’ve been yelling into the well about for a decade or more.
      no one can agree on the color of the sky, so the very Idea of “Society” becomes moot.
      everything is transactional and contingent, and there’s no foundation on which to build anything that lasts.
      of course, certain factions of the PTB have been busily attempting to engineer just this outcome….the Gop/American Right, wanting to delegitimise government, and drown it in a bathtub…or the ivory tower dwellers that have erected the Neoliberal Order.
      well, here we are…this is what government looks like when it’s been delegitimised and drowned in a tub….and here, all around us, are the effects of forcing Mr Market into every aspect of human life.
      not that these sundry elite factions are godlike or anything…far from it.
      but their machinations and jiggering…generally for their own short to medium term gain…have had much broader effects…and now we all have to live with the worlds they helped to tear down.
      reading this interview, i keep thinking of a Greider book, “who will tell the people?”(https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/350358.Who_Will_Tell_the_People#) …along with Lasch, his take(in 1993!) fits right in with what this guy is saying….the People…the great unwashed…watched as the curtain tore and fell to the floor…but the Wizard didn’t notice, so caught up in his own self-regard.
      I came to Ur Cynicism a long time ago…mostly by reading people like Greider and Lasch,lol.
      but it’s a hard thing for ordinary people to learn that the grand narratives that they’ve built their world views upon are as sand, and that they’ve been lied to about just about everything.
      That hard place goes a long way to explaining a whole lot of what we’re seeing, today.
      1. hunkerdown October 22, 2020 at 4:47 pm

         Considering the working mission of the CIA, I’m not surprised ex-CIA actually believes the democracy narrative and can’t see himself in the worries about fascism and authoritarianism.

         Democracy is easy to rebuild. It pops up spontaneously like sidewalk dandelions wherever it isn’t crushed by republicanism or other authoritarian ideologies. Republicanism, on the other hand, takes a well-organized bourgeoisie with physical access to the ruling class, and requires elites to hire double-digit percentages of its people as ranch hands to keep the dogies in the pen. If you ain’t read Graeber’s Possibilities yet, git it. You might need it soon enough at this rate!
         1. Yves Smith October 23, 2020 at 1:03 am

            “Rebuild”. Please read the classic work by Barrington Moore, “The Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy.” He shows that societies that never had a bourgeois revolution don’t evolve toward democracies. And democracies don’t scale. Occupy Wall Street had uber democratic “process”. It was impossible to get anything done.
      2. urblintz October 22, 2020 at 6:47 pm

         Greider!!
         (R.I.P.)
      3. neo-realist October 22, 2020 at 8:58 pm

         I disagree. I think that if Trump is re-elected, and doesn’t have to concern himself with lying and cheating his way back into office, he and Barr will go after the left with a McCarthyite vengeance: Expect something along the lines of the House Committee on Antifa American Activities to investigate all those BLM, DSA, RCP, and other lefty organizers prior to their criminal indictments.
         1. Yves Smith October 23, 2020 at 1:06 am

            Huh? He won’t have the House and would have at best a thinner majority in the Senate.

            He didn’t go after Hillary when she was an easy target.

            McCarthyism, lest you forget, was led by a Senator via never-ending hearings. The FBI thanks to J. Edgar Hoover’s legacy isn’t fully under the control of the Administration. It is however so tight with local cops that it would likely already be going after BLM on its own…and hasn’t much.
            1. neo-realist October 23, 2020 at 9:40 am

               Trump has been able to do a lot of damage w/ a Senate majority, and if he keeps it will use it, IMO, to destroy progressives in any way shape and form. He’s a china breaker, I don’t doubt that he will use his presidential powers at hand to destroy his enemies. The lefty organizers are easier targets that don’t have the money, connections and corporate power to defend themselves unlike Hillary.

               I suspect the local police approach with BLM has been more subtle: infiltration, monitoring, and probably egging on some of violence and destruction to discredit them in the eyes of the public.

               That being said, assuming he’s re-elected, I hope you’re right.
            2. Darthbobber October 23, 2020 at 10:48 am

               Not only didn’t go after Clinton, but his administration followed straight in the previous one’s footsteps by continuing to resist all Clinton-related FOIA requests and suits.

               Perhaps because intensely disliking the FOIA is bipartisan.
         2. drexciya October 23, 2020 at 6:16 am

            By banning critical race theory, Trump is doing the left a great service. The left should take the hint, and get rid of this toxic garbage as fast as possible. I’m very curious as to how the situation in France will develop. As someone else wrote earlier this week, it’s time for a new “left”, which doesn’t focus on identity politics. Only then, will I bother to give them a second look. For now, they’ve completely discredited themselves by hopping on that bandwagon. My impression is that identity politics have been instrumental in the walkaway movement.
      4. Cuibono October 22, 2020 at 9:23 pm

         “it’s a hard thing for ordinary people to learn that the grand narratives that they’ve built their world views upon are as sand”

         +1000
         it is not just hard. it is nearly impossible.
   2. Starry Gordon October 22, 2020 at 4:05 pm

      Agreed. What he writes seems sort of obvious once it’s laid out. but you won’t find many, especially in the PMC, who see it, much less write it up clearly and publish it. Once the old channels of authority and information are challenged, impugned, or vanish entirely, the world changes, a process that feeds back into itself and is almost completely unpredictable. But in the past, this sort of change, as with the printing press or broadcast radio, has led to a lot of trouble. Contemporary activist types, though, at least those that I observe, are not entirely nihilistic; they’re just operating on a very low level which I suppose makes them invisible to the higher castes, thus enabling them to avoid interference, cooptation, and arrest,

      I wonder what they make of the book it Silicon Valley (if there really is such a thing). I am reminded of an article about Marshall McLuhan, probably by Tom Wolfe, making fun of the elites of the time earnestly trying to figure out how to make money off the changes of the 1950s and ’60s. Only this time around there might not even be money at the end.
   3. fwe'zy October 22, 2020 at 4:09 pm

      Thanks, I read it because of your comment. Direct democracy sure but is it kit-n-caboodle with total surveillance – excuse me – “agile governance” – due to delivery mechanism?
      Cause for concern:
      Democratic government can evolve into a civic-minded version of Amazon. That company is, in fact, a huge bureaucracy, but that’s not what customers experience. They experience fast service at the best prices. Central governments, on the other hand, deliver a vast number of essential services – but that’s not what ordinary citizens experience. They experience arrogance, bureaucracy, and delay.

      *cough* worker torture *cough* dark overlord *cough* inhumane and extractive *cough*
      1. hunkerdown October 22, 2020 at 5:23 pm

         Neoliberalism seems to be trying extra hard to rebrand itself right now, with all sorts of new narratives by both entrepreneurs and established hands, all of which degenerate to the same leisure class of moneyed predators moving the rest of us around by throwing crumbs onto their game boards. Pretty sure that’s the angle Epsilon Theory is working, for example. And here with Gurri we have “the only game in town” and something that sounds suspiciously like gamification, neglecting the mature option of simply quitting the game or any number of other things that aren’t in his “former” employer’s interest.
         1. fwe'zy October 22, 2020 at 6:37 pm

            I was about to reply that, while gamification worries me, I still see a place for technology. Then I remembered “hand-counted physical ballots” which I learned from NC.

            Anyway, the digital divide is a real thing and, as a layman, I don’t know how but I’d really like to see that divide disappear without having to tap the entire planet into any kind of oppressive sensor web.
         2. Starry Gordon October 22, 2020 at 9:04 pm

            Quitting the game would be a sort of game move — like kicking over the chessboard, and thus expanding the game space.

            In any case the TPTB, including the entrepreneurs, require those game boards to stay in place. If, as Sr. Gurri theorizes, the boards are falling apart, that’s what’s going to happen even if no one kicks the board over. Then the question arises as to what will ensue. No doubt the TPTB will try to use every means at their disposal to keep order, so things could get rough. But suppose they can’t keep order, then it’s interesting or maybe even prudent to speculate as to what sort of arrangements, political and economic, will succeed the present ones. I think if there are any coming along they must be small, unobtrusive, out of sight for now.
   4. DJG October 22, 2020 at 5:20 pm

      Mark Gisleson: On your recommendation, I more or less made my way through. I’m sending it to myself to read again later. Yes, Gurri explains things, our predicament, our incoherence, very well. Worth the effort to read.
   5. Frank October 22, 2020 at 5:22 pm

      Really? I decided he was a dirtbag halfway through and gave up sorting fact from fiction.
      1. Lydia Maria Child October 22, 2020 at 9:40 pm

         Same here. Lots of talking but never really saying anything.
8. Frank October 22, 2020 at 2:43 pm

   I’m not going to watch an hour of tv. Is there a link to a transcript of the Luntz appearance?
   1. Lambert Strether Post authorOctober 22, 2020 at 3:00 pm

      Here is a transcript. I do recommend listening, though, perhaps while doing something else. There are a number of plot twists, and I didn’t want to write spoilers.
      1. Carolinian October 22, 2020 at 3:39 pm

         Thanks for the transcript. I got my browser to pull the Luntz quotes.

         Maybe I’ll watch the whole thing tonight in lieu of the debate.

         Meanwhile Trump has allegedly released the full tape of his contentious interview with Leslie Stahl. I don’t do Twitter or Facebook but think this might be the link

         https://t.co/ETDJzMQg8X
         1. tegnost October 22, 2020 at 9:56 pm

            I watched it last night and it was worth the time. He started losing me when he talked about occupy v tea party, but I felt it was mostly an ideological rift in our ways of thinking. Back in the dark ages of the late 1900’s I used to hang at a coffee shop in san diego with a mixed ideology group, and like luntz here they were reasonable and had differing viewpoints from my own and we got along fine, honesty wasn’t punished as it is today (aside this is why the polling could be off, the thought police on the left are bonkers).
            He seemed to loosen up in the second half enough so that I wondered if there were martinis in that water bottle…
      2. psv October 22, 2020 at 4:04 pm

         Thanks for the link to the Luntz video Lambert, I watched it to the end, and thought he had some good points. Found his comments about the feeling at the 2009 inauguration interesting.
      3. Mark Gisleson October 22, 2020 at 4:05 pm

         I listened while doing other things and am glad I did. This interview restored my interest in Luntz who sees the world as it is.
         1. chuck roast October 22, 2020 at 10:16 pm

            Kinda. Luntz is like a building inspector. He knows how it is put together, and how it can fall apart. I very insightful fellow. However, he completely ignores the small coterie that owns the building. His analysis, deconstruction and ultimate indictment is all about the maintenance staff which he knows intimately. He holds numerous skull sessions with the buildings inhabitants who see the maintenance staff regularly and have any number of complaints about their performance. The inhabitants don’t see the landlords who are quickly turning the building into a slum. The slumlords are of no concern to Luntz. I guess one-dimensional is better than no-dimensional. Chris Hedges doesn’t need skull-sessions to figure it out.
      4. Reality Bites October 22, 2020 at 4:33 pm

         I listened to the Luntz interview. It is one of the best interviews I’ve seen in a long time. I don’t agree with him on everything. I think he was off on healthcare. Once single payer was off the table I think many people gave up and were deeply disappointed with the ACA. Luntz later on talks about how the loudmouths get the attention but he fails to realize that this was such a case. Much of the polling on the ACA indicated that many didn’t like it because it did not go far enough. Yet those voices were overlooked by the media. I also feel that his point on OWS and the Tea Party rallies was somewhat biased. There were quite a few OWS gatherings that were equally clean and well mannered. To me, Luntz was merely dismissing people he didn’t like in the same manner that he later (rightly) talked about Hilary calling Trump supporters deplorable. I also think he was a bit too light on the Republican party actions during Obama’s term.

         Overall though, his points were excellent and well argued. I sadly agree with his view about where the country is going. I do not see this election restoring any sense of balance or helping out most people regardless of the outcome.
         1. ChrisPacific October 23, 2020 at 5:54 am

            I agree – it was very good. Like you I did not agree with a lot of his interpretations (I wouldn’t necessarily expect to, given the ideological differences) but I thought all of the observational and personal stuff was excellent. Certainly everything he was saying about the reactions to the foreclosures and bank bailouts and the like, and a lot of his comments on Obama, were very much in line with what we were talking about here at the time.

            It looks like it was recorded in January of this year, before Covid became an issue. I’m not sure if people would have been shocked by his views back then. I’m almost certain they wouldn’t be now, because it has brought all of that out into the open for everyone to see.

            I’ve always wondered about some of history’s great wars and atrocities, and how humans could be capable of doing things like that to each other. There have been times recently when I’ve seen, heard or read something and caught a glimmer of understanding, and I was definitely getting that sense again from this interview. I’m pretty sure he was as well, and I think he pulled some punches at the end (I don’t think that mention of his family history was lightly chosen). Let’s all hope it doesn’t come to that.

            On a somewhat more positive note, his point about the immense importance of messaging tone does explain somewhat why Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand and other leaders like her have enjoyed the success they have. Sadly I don’t see the entrenched power structures in the USA giving up their grip in time to create an opening for that kind of leader, at least not in time to make a difference, but I would love to be wrong.
   2. Arizona Slim October 22, 2020 at 4:22 pm

      I’m listening to it while I’m working. It’s good stuff. Highly recommended.
      1. STEPHEN October 22, 2020 at 4:57 pm

         Agreed, Frank Luntz is sharp in this one.
      2. Glen October 22, 2020 at 7:24 pm

         Yes, I think everybody should listen to this one. But what astonishes me is perhaps what’s missing, or where he only danced up to edge.

         This is the world Frank Luntz spent his WHOLE CAREER working so hard to CREATE.

         And I think he is downplaying his role in all of this. Why single out Glenn Beck of all people when Frank provided the phrases and vocabulary to divide people, to make people hate? It’s his wheel house.
         1. cat’s paw October 22, 2020 at 8:48 pm

            yep. i’m sure luntz has some insights he can dole out in this interview, but i’m inclined to trust him in proportion to the distance i can throw him.

            just about every nifty little war is peace/hate is love republican pr slogan from the bush era came from luntz’s workshop – what a beauty “job creators” was.

            he’s inclined to a particular pov, let’s say, one that isn’t merely 2000s era republican – a notably contemptible version of the type. his pov, first and foremost, is that of a marketeer; seeking always to better understand the psychology and motivations of his marks in order to derive the signifiers best suited for obfuscating the thing he wants to sell.
            1. Chaco52 October 23, 2020 at 11:34 am

               Regardless of the examples Luntz references, his interview came across as sincere and showed his humanity. Combined with Gurri’s observations on social media and the ineffective response by the elite leaders to the destructive ability of social media to divide us, it is hard to ignore Luntz’s conclusions regarding the precipitous times we live in and the abyss we face.
               1. Rod October 23, 2020 at 3:50 pm

                  I agree.
9. dagan68 October 22, 2020 at 2:47 pm

   With regard to the social desirability polling issue.
   What I am about to say is very anecdotal – but I thought I would share it on here anyway.

   My wife is a Chinese immigrant. She was a student at their most prestigious university – Tshinghua University in Beijing. Accordingly, she is a member of that University’s tens of thousands strong alumni association here in the USA. Actually quite involved. They were big supporters of Hilary Clinton during the last election – going for her 70-30. Now, given the Maoist reflections going on in the Democratic Party and the “wokeism” and the failure to confront this – that has absolutely reversed – the last poll in her group was 90-10 Trump. Strong work Democrats – that has taken years of effort to piss off these Chinese immigrants. You deserve everything you have coming in that regard.

   With all that in mind – since early this summer – my wife has somehow landed on a weekly polling call from one of our big polling groups. She will be absolutely going to the polls to vote for Trump. But she tells them she is voting for Biden. And she also answers all the “social questions” – exactly how she thinks they would want her to answer. When I confronted her about this weeks ago – she is in no way a liar in any other part of her life – her answer was illuminating – “Why would I tell them I would vote for Trump – I will be listed as an enemy of the state for life – you have no idea how Chairman Mao – and now these people – operate and what a danger they can be to your life.”

   I would add that a good chunk of the “deplorables” feel the same way – and would probably respond in kind.

   My point being – ANYONE WHO PUTS ONE IOTA OF STOCK IN THESE POLLS IS A COMPLETE MORON AT THIS POINT.

   As a patriotic American – I think polling should be banned from now on. This is a poison to the electoral process.
   1. a different chris October 22, 2020 at 4:49 pm

      70-20 Clinton to 90-10 Trump.

      I think they need to sit back and really, really think a bit. Both are stupid extremes, sorry.

      And “Maoist reflections”? Give me a break.
      1. barefoot charley October 22, 2020 at 7:10 pm

         The Maoism she refers to (I think) is the humiliating self-criticism and censoring demanded by adolescent people’s warriors unleashed by Mao in the 1960s. The kids, millions of them, lived and killed by their slogans. It’s a fascinating connection I hadn’t made, and I’m afraid it’s apt.
   2. General Jinjur October 22, 2020 at 6:17 pm

      “Why would I tell them I would vote for Trump – I will be listed as an enemy of the state for life – you have no idea how Chairman Mao – and now these people – operate and what a danger they can be to your life.”

      This is not quite the same but I have frequently been uneasy when reading the campaign donation emails from the Trump campaign that are worded in such a way as to suggest mild intimidation. Paraphrasing, but words to the effect that my name will be put on a list of non-donors and given to Trump if no donation is forthcoming.
      1. General Jinjur October 22, 2020 at 6:26 pm

         That’s not quite right. The donation request expresses surprise that one of Trump’s strongest supporters has so far failed to give money. It then states that a list of donors will be given to Trump and suggests that my name had better be on it. And by association…
         1. b October 22, 2020 at 8:39 pm

            Making a list and checking it twice?
            1. General Jinjur October 22, 2020 at 9:21 pm

               Haha! If we’re audited I shall probably wonder ; )
   3. John k October 22, 2020 at 6:22 pm

      Very interesting. My wife also, though from HK. She despises trump, as do afaik her many siblings. But none grew up under mao, so obviously different perspectives. I’m fairly shocked by your numbers… but several indications it’s way closer than most polls indicate.
   4. JacobiteInTraining October 22, 2020 at 6:24 pm

      “…the last poll in her group was 90-10 Trump…”

      Cool, future members of the ‘leopard-eating-peoples-faces-party’, I presume!

      They will be shocked…SHOCKED..when the leopard eats *their* face someday once Trump and his grifters win, and decide to get around to deporting the last of the brown people and get busy on the commies from Asia. (I happen to have an ex-GF who is Korean, and though she is fine in SF where she lived…when she was visiting in Florida she was accosted on several occasions by some rubes laughing about the ‘china virus’. Other times she was just stared at in a hostile manner til she left wherever she happened to be.

      “…enemy of the state for life….you have no idea how Chairman Mao – and now these people – operate and what a danger they can be to your life…”

      I don’t disagree that Chairman Mao was a danger, but to put ol Biden into the Imminent Commie Threat category is, well, amusingly – nay laughably – misguided. Biden and his ilk are still threats, but they are not now…nor will they ever be commies. Enough with the ‘pinko scum’ epithets at those guys….and maybe watch a little less Fox/OANN, lol.

      Now _me_ on the other hand….I’m a far piece further Left then Biden and the DNC will EVER be. (ever CAN be, lol) Me….*I* am a true Enemy of the State, hated by both D’s and R’s with equal enthusiasm. :)

      Tell yer wife not to worry, though, when the roundups and FEMA camp deportations begin,it’ll be me, who gets sent there first. I’m a secessionist, you see….i want to eventually see the PNW secede from this ridiculous mess of a Corporate Oligarchical Failed State, maybe merge with BC and become Cascadia.

      Should that ever happen, you and yer wife are still more then welcome to come visit and have a barbecue with us. I doubt the roving Death Squads will be too active past the holidays….too rainy, and the chance of snow/ice is just too taxing on the death squad vehicles.
      1. dagan68 October 22, 2020 at 7:14 pm

         Thank you very much for your comment. It is comments like this that make me realize that Americans have absolutely no clue nor concern about what has happened to others in the rest of the world –

         My wife actually has been here 30 years. She decided to make the change to being in America while on the streets of Beijing during Tianamen Square. She came to this country and made the absolute most of it.

         She has been a very reliable Dem voter – and donor for the most part of 30 years. It was this summer – that has really triggered her – and the rest of her Chinese friends. They had the privilege of watching the end of the Cultural Revolution as children in middle and high school – as one after the other of those convicted of “thought crimes” got taken to the schoolyards and shot in front of the students.

         She also had the experience of being a young girl at the beginning of the Cultural Revolution – when the Red Guard started the fun first at the universities – then rapidly spreading to the papers – and the civic groups – and eventually turning families against themselves. They saw first hand the chaos of the left wing crowds released upon the universities – not unlike what has happened here the past few years. Then the public struggle sessions – which are an ongoing thing now right here in the USA. My job features one almost monthly at this point. Then came the massive re-education – being done here in the guise of sensitivity and racial training, etc. Then came the ad hominem attacks. Never you’re stupid or dumb – but actual vicious lies that ruin people’s lives forever. In America – this is sounding like – you are a racist – you are talking from your privilege – you are a Russian sympathizer. If you think that is not happening – please go look up the concept of “cancel culture”. Then and only then came the public executions.

         So yes – she is triggered – I have sat and listened to her and many of her friends talk about it without ceasing. They never dreamed they would be seeing exactly the same tactics as Maoist China in their new beloved home of the USA. I am so sorry you are unable to even begin to understand. Your comments make it clear you have not thought about it much from their perspective.

         Please do not minimize or make fun of these people – that is the usual smart ass blog comment twitter thing to do. Those of us with brains have learned to take warnings like hers very seriously.
         1. Lydia Maria Child October 22, 2020 at 9:55 pm

            Sorry, but this isn’t about others fully understanding what your wife and her friends went through almost a half century ago on the other side of the world. It is about them not understanding what’s going on here, and now. To even pretend like woke twitter scolds bare any resemblance to armed state agents murdering kids at school for thought crimes is idiotic. They’re confused and evidently very badly misinformed. TURN OFF THE TV. They sound about as deranged and out of touch as my fox news watching family. Very much the same, actually.
            1. JBird4049 October 23, 2020 at 2:28 am

               “On the other side of the world?” Speaking as one who has known people that had a fun time with J. Edward Hoover’s goons in the fifties, what with McCarthyism and the whole “better dead than Red” Red Scare of the times, may I suggest a rethinking of the “it’s just the Wokester Twits, so whatever?” Honestly, the sincere, nihilistic screeching about checking your privilege and on America’s uncleansed original sin is annoying especially as the useful idiots are distracting from the issues of extreme corruption and growing poverty. But they could become a real problem.

               First, to those who think that it is a “leftist” thing, it is a tactic of authoritarian and totalitarian regimes. It is used by dictatorships and oligarchies to crush the the perceived opposition and brutalized the population into obedience. Hitler, Stalin, Francisco Franco, Pol Pot, Augusto Pinochet, and Mao all used some form of “thought crime means death.”

               Second, in the United States it has never been an official policy of murder but there were some, but you had to be doing something much greater than passing leaflets. However, being fired, expelled, blacklisted, and frequently harassed by the authorities (this would also be done on your family, friends, neighbors, employers, co-workers or anyone else associated with you.) If they thought that they could frame you, sometimes they would. And of course being spied on and followed around the country. The First World War, the 1920s, the 1950s-60s were all really bad times to be on the American Left.

               Third, please realize that there were no coups, and while the FBI, CIA, state and municipal police would all be trying to destroy you, there were public schoolyard executions, but many, many careers, families, and lives were destroyed in the United States often merely for speaking the bad words or going to the wrong meetings even once. So while some of these comments might seem and maybe are overwrought (Rod Dreher at The American Conservative can teach a course on it.) there are some very good reasons. The pattern of anti-communism and anti-unionism was similar to Wokeness and Identity Politics. Same with what became anti-capitalism. There are a number of countries that did not have a clue there would become thought crimes meriting torture, prison, or execution. The lack of “unofficial” it’s extrajudicial political executions, imprisonments, beatings, and harassment of the past past forty years is really unusual for the over four centuries (including the colonies) of American history. The co-ordinated multi city crushing of Occupy Wall Street, Little Rock, and protests are more normal.

               Fourth, in most cases the national government was already discredited, incompetent, and weak either by circumstances or deliberate effort. The country also is usually suffering economic decline, lost a war, or both. This allows first, a movement to take over, followed by a strongman. The movement often has an upper-middle class leadership with limited prospects and a disaffected base of the poor and the enraged.

               Noticed anything similar to modern America?

               It is unlikely that there will be public executions for thought crime because it would be really bad, but people were guillotined in Nazi Germany or shot in Fascist Italy for passing out leaflets, when a decade earlier Gay Berlin was real. That the French Revolution arose from a government meeting on a tennis court was really unexpected as well. Vladimir Lenin and his people were about as shocked as their enemies for winning the civil war. That was followed by a bad bank robber seizing total power, killing all the Old Bolsheviks, and putting the the survivors into the Gulag Archipelago that they had helped to create.

               History is filled with the unexpected. Twisted events that often lead to horrible events.
         2. fwe'zy October 23, 2020 at 12:28 am

            Let’s ask the homeless and the hungry everywhere on these exceptional streets tonight how they’re making the absolute most of this paradise.
      2. Procopius October 23, 2020 at 7:30 pm

         It’s not Biden who is the danger. It’s the people around and behind him. Clinton’s people. Obama’s people. “You will know them by their deeds.”
10. fwe'zy October 22, 2020 at 2:47 pm

    @chuck roast
    Show Us Your Kittehs!
11. Jonhoops October 22, 2020 at 2:58 pm

    Why not explore using The iOS Notes app which is built for collecting & organizing snippets. Links images etc

    That way you don’t have to worry about your online connection as much.
    1. Lambert Strether Post authorOctober 22, 2020 at 3:01 pm

       Because I shouldn’t have to change my workflow, which is highly efficient when Apple isn’t screwing it up.
       1. David October 22, 2020 at 3:10 pm

          But I doubt if it’s as efficient as using Notes. Every time I find an internet page that interests me I click on the share icon, and create a new note in the form of a URL shortcut in a predetermined folder in Notes. Takes less than five seconds.
          You don’t seriously still use Yahoo, do you?
          1. Basil Pesto October 23, 2020 at 8:36 am

             I use Pocket, though it’s not organised in subfolders.
12. Lambert Strether Post authorOctober 22, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    Well, I have fought through all the technical nonsense to deliver a reasonably complete water cooler. Please refresh your browser.
    1. Carla October 22, 2020 at 3:46 pm

       Lambert — for me, the Water Cooler is never complete without the plantidote.
       1. jo6pac October 22, 2020 at 4:02 pm

          LOL
       2. Lambert Strether Post authorOctober 22, 2020 at 4:21 pm

          Goddammit.

          Adding, now complete. Thanks for the push.
          1. Carla October 22, 2020 at 4:33 pm

             Merci beaucoup!
       3. a different chris October 22, 2020 at 4:50 pm

          i thought the WC was the Plantidote, and the rest was just filler? :D

          Well, until the birdsongs were added. Love that.
          1. The Rev Kev October 22, 2020 at 7:23 pm

             Yeah, the birdsong addition was great. A little hint of the natural world outside.
    2. Synoia October 22, 2020 at 4:41 pm

       Possibly, and I am no expert on Apple products, turning the gadget off at bedtime, and on in the morning might help.

       Mysteries can be caused by a fragmented memory. Restart alleviates that condition for a time.
13. Dave October 22, 2020 at 3:04 pm

    I’ve come to like a subscription service called “Diigo” for storing links and note-taking. Maybe this would work better than email for your needs? Apologies if many have already recommended this to you and you are sick of hearing about it!
    1. Dave October 22, 2020 at 3:26 pm

       Ah. I just saw your comment above, re: liking your workflow as is. Godspeed.
14. Rod October 22, 2020 at 3:09 pm

    i have so enjoyed your inclusion of bird voices as an intro to Water Cooler–and find it centering before reading on. thanks for bringing it onboard.
    Black Capped have a cousin that was noticed here first–so we call it the Carolina Chickadee. Its a regional voice being sweeter and more melodic, imo. Also a bit more petit, though often carouses with the BCs.
    The voice graph makes an interesting comparison of the two.

    https://search.macaulaylibrary.org/catalog?taxonCode=carchi&q=Carolina%20Chickadee%20-%20Poecile%20carolinensis
    1. dk October 22, 2020 at 10:57 pm

       Nice! I’m really digging the BC’s funky shuffle though ;)
15. Henry Moon Pie October 22, 2020 at 3:12 pm

    Maybe Luntz is a real voter whisperer, but it’s certain he’s still a Bushie through and through. He laments how Sarah Palin breached some norm that required expertise in governing at such a lofty level of politics without exhibiting a trace of irony considering how she appeared at the conclusion of eight glorious years of Bush/Cheney expertise.
    1. JBird4049 October 23, 2020 at 5:03 am

       IIRC, Sarah Palin represents Republicans rejection of expertise with Donald Trump as it culmination. I believe that he also places the Democrats in a similar category of lesser rejection.

       Let’s be honest, Frank Luntz has real responsibility for the current political and social hellscape, but Palin has about as much depth of knowledge as a saucer holds water. George W. Bush and Darth Chaney are university professors compared to her; I just don’t see him recommending or accepting Palin the Sexbot as a veep candidate.

       He probably does have remorse and really should. He didn’t think about how his compatriots would further push his tactics. Then again, social media has turned political discourse from a shootout with flintlock muskets to one with automatic shotguns.
       1. Rod October 23, 2020 at 4:16 pm

          I agree that take on Palin and the story he told about her speech was insightful.
          But
          That bit on Social Media about minute44-48 just lunged at me.
          Listened again prior to debate and much of what he spoke on was laid bare by the debate.
16. Expat2Uruguay October 22, 2020 at 3:14 pm

    A really great interview about the successful reclamation of democracy in Bolivia from The Gray Zone, talking to an on-the-ground reporter. 35 minutos
    https://youtu.be/aeKIyHDseM4
    1. Expat2uruguay October 22, 2020 at 6:40 pm

       Just to be clear, The Gray Zone did not previously have control of democracy in Bolivia.
       1. CoryP October 23, 2020 at 12:13 am

          Hah!
17. Drake October 22, 2020 at 3:48 pm

    Re: How the Polls Hide Trump’s Lead

    Not surprising to anyone paying attention and with a deep distrust of experts, especially data-whisperers. I fully expect Trump to win the electoral college easily. I base this on things like: the utter lack of enthusiasm for Biden and Harris even among people excited to get rid of Trump; the fact that demand for guns and ammunition have been making the former much more expensive than usual and the latter almost unobtainable, while applications for concealed carry have been soaring, and all of this began even before the protests though it became insane afterwards; the observation that Biden signs in my solid blue state/county are scarce and don’t outnumber Trump signs by much, while BLM signs are decreasing and statements of support for police or the more anodyne ‘first responders’ have been increasing; and the overwhelming intimidation and bullying directed against anyone who isn’t obviously with the program (see the sudden visceral hatred directed towards Chris Pratt for simply not attending an event with other ‘Avengers’). The polls aren’t capturing this. Conduct them in a gun shop and you’ll find the Trump voters, shy and not-so-shy.

    Also a majority of respondents consistently say they’re bettter off than four years ago, rather a surprise to me given how 2020 has gone but doesn’t bode well for a challenger.
    1. Phillip Cross October 22, 2020 at 4:09 pm

       Based on what I have seen of the US electorate, I think you’re right. Was there ever a more paranoid, ignorant, greedy and bitter group in the history of the world? What a bunch!

       In my opinion, a repulsive, morbidly obese, crass and belligerent hypocrite is the perfect avatar for the country. It’s just too “on the nose” for those in denial about America and it’s people, hence the big push to replace Trump with a less physically repulsive hypocrite.
       1. Mikel October 22, 2020 at 5:53 pm

          The avatar is only missing the clown nose…has the hair…
       2. kareninca October 23, 2020 at 1:26 am

          Oh, great, bigotry against overweight people. How nice.
          1. JBird4049 October 23, 2020 at 5:33 am

             Well, most fat people, from my experience, either have been forced to live on the high caloric, but cheap, craptastic junk food, or have suffered some wonderful combination of familial abuse, poverty, and despair. A very few do have some inherent disease that creates the condition. Most of these fat Americans have less political influence than the 20yo cat snoring on my lap.

             Americans who have healthy, athletic bodies, great cheekbones, and good teeth usually belong to the top 10%. The ones with the time, money, and access to excellent healthcare, gyms, personal trainers, and expensive, healthy, organic food. The nomenklatura and apparatchiks who actually have some influence or even real power.

             The fact is that the conditions that create impoverished, unhealthy fat people has more to do with the efforts of the well off, skinny people than the fat people. But the innocent are supposed to be beautiful while the guilty are ugly. Facts be dammed. So the eeeevvvillle Americans must all be ugly lardbutts.
             1. tegnost October 23, 2020 at 11:42 am

                https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/a-quick-guide-to-snap-eligibility-and-benefits#:~:text=On%20average%2C%20SNAP%20households%20received,%241.39%20per%20person%20per%
                FTA…”On average, SNAP households received about $246 a month in fiscal year 2020. The average SNAP benefit per person was about $125 per month, which works out to about $1.39 per person per meal.”
                About all you can buy on $250 a month is cheerios and pasta, but if you want to go organic then it’s just pasta…
                It looks like another one of those “self fulfilling promises”
                You pretend to be hungry and we’;ll pretend to feed you…(I mean, if you’re hungry then why won’t you get a job? Amazon is always hiring…)
                https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/22/21529008/amazon-warehouse-injury-rates-classification-workers-compensation
       3. tegnost October 23, 2020 at 11:34 am

          I think you’re right. Was there ever a more paranoid, ignorant, greedy and bitter group in the history of the world? What a bunch!

          OMG you’ve been hanging around with my PMC/MBA/medico family members in san diego! Tell them I said “Hi!”
          But I think you meant brunch…
    2. a different chris October 22, 2020 at 4:52 pm

       >(see the sudden visceral hatred directed towards Chris Pratt for simply not attending an event with other ‘Avengers’).

       So they really aren’t inspired and won’t show up at the voting booths but truly, “overwhelmingly” I believe was your word, hate Chris Pratt?

       Gotcha. Um, suggest you check a dictionary and see if “overwhelmingly” means what you think it means.

       As usual, I don’t know who is going to win but Trump having a big EC victory is something I would actually bet against, if I was a betting man.
    3. Biph October 22, 2020 at 6:54 pm

       I find it funny that your using a Gallup poll from 6 weeks ago where 56% respondents said they were better off than 4 years ago, but ignoring the latest Gallup poll which shows Trump with a 43% approval rating and the Dems with 86%-79% edge in saying this election is more important than previous ones. I suppose if one only looks at the data that supports the Trump is winning position while ignoring that which undermines it and only talks to people in gun stores it could look like Trump is headed for a landslide victory.
18. Samuel Conner October 22, 2020 at 3:57 pm

    I listened to about 60% of the Luntz interview. It was useful, but I was a bit troubled by what I understood to be his claim that the problem with the ACA was “messaging” or presentation, that it was called “health care reform”, not “health insurance reform”, and that this led people to believe that Obama was going to mess with what was happening at the point of care.

    And, as far as I got in the interview, not a hint of recognition that M4A as a solution to what is wrong with US health care provision has significant and bipartisan support in the electorate.

    At the point I reached in the interview where I tuned out, he was talking about the widespread distrust of elites, and blaming the elites for the distrust, but I didn’t get the sense that he sees “misgovernance” to be part of the problem.
    1. Geof October 22, 2020 at 5:37 pm

       I recommend the last few minutes, from about the 54 minute mark. I think it’s the most important part.

       I think what matters in this interview is not particular policies or ideology, right or wrong. It is how the American people have become divided. Luntz is on the one hand responsible for some very bad things (blocking efforts on climate change). On the other, you can tell that he’s taking great care not to rile up outrage for or against Trump or (more importantly) his supporters. The core danger is captured in the last few minutes. On that, I think he’s very right.
    2. WobblyTelomeres October 22, 2020 at 5:49 pm

       He is a professional messenger. That’s why he said the problem was messaging. If all you have is a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail.
    3. Skip Intro October 23, 2020 at 12:14 pm

       Luntz is pretty dense or disingenuous when he compares OWS and the Tea Party “movement” (neglecting all the Koch funding, and Fox 24/7 cheerleading), and he is especially clueless about Obama and the ACA… ‘did they not do polling?’ Duh. They knew what people wanted, their JOB was to prevent it.

       Sure Luntz has emotional intelligence, and a certain skill as a ‘working-class’-whisperer for GOP pols, but I wouldn’t believe his ‘facts’.
       1. Skip Intro October 23, 2020 at 3:17 pm

          OMG, he actually admits his guilt and breaks down at the end… this interview deserves a full post of its own!
          1. Rod October 23, 2020 at 4:50 pm

             Why be the spoiler?
             Less of a breakdown and more of the shock of emotional discord, imo.
19. lyman alpha blob October 22, 2020 at 3:57 pm

    Because voters are little children…

    Does anybody fall for this kind of crap? I much prefer Trump’s unmasked spittle laden vituperation to this kind of treacly, palaverous pap and would rather be a member of the Manson family than Biden’s.
    1. hunkerdown October 22, 2020 at 4:23 pm

       No, but it helps reinforce turnout of their desired base, if only by turning other people off.
    2. Oh October 22, 2020 at 4:53 pm

       If they were childen, they’d refuse to vote.
    3. Daryl October 22, 2020 at 5:03 pm

       I dunno, being related to “the big man” seems to be a pretty profitable, easy life.
    4. ChrisPacific October 22, 2020 at 6:52 pm

       I am trying to think what kind of family the US is like. I think it’s a tossup between the Montagues/Capulets and the Lannisters.

       (Now I am wondering if somebody will rewrite West Side Story with Trump supporters and the Resistance as the rival gangs).
    5. Guild Navigator October 26, 2020 at 7:55 am

       +100000000000000000
20. DJG October 22, 2020 at 4:06 pm

    And this foofaraw from some id-ish tweet: “restore the soul of our nation”

    The current “soul” of “America” is a pungent gas made of melodrama and bad faith. Anytime anyone starts yammering about the Soul of America[tm] we can be assured that that person’s mind has turned into a combination of circus peanuts, Cool Whip, sententious quotes from John Kerry, and spiritual-but-not-religious piffle.

    Both the mauve party and the aqua party of the Party of Property are thoroughly infected. Here we face a winter when the bodies of Americans are endangered, after a summer of endangerment of bodies through fire, and these bozos are looking for comfort in their own reheated slogans and swirling fantasies.
21. Biph October 22, 2020 at 4:06 pm

    I’ve seen a lot on “shy” Trump voters and while I certainly think that’s a thing and more likely to occur in deep blue places, how significant it is is another matter. Could there be a similar thing going on with Biden voters. For example someone married to or living with a vocal Trump supporter who pays lip service to supporting Trump while intending to vote for Biden, all in the interest of domestic harmony. Once again I don’t know how significant it would be, but I could see the “shy” voter thing running both ways.
    1. Lambert Strether Post authorOctober 22, 2020 at 4:20 pm

       > more likely to occur in deep blue places,

       If shyness is in deep blue places, it doensn’t matter electorally. In the suburbs, especially in swing states, it might.
       1. Biph October 22, 2020 at 4:27 pm

          Elections are often won by decreasing one’s opponents margin of victory in places they are expected to and do win easily, but winning or losing a city or heavily gerrymandered CD by 30 points rather than 40 does matter in a close election.
    2. Stillfeelinthebern October 23, 2020 at 8:57 am

       I’ve seen several yards in my Wisconsin community where there are Biden, Democratic signs on one side and Tru*p, Republican on the other. Never seen this before.
       1. tegnost October 23, 2020 at 11:29 am

          well, we do live in a cancel culture after all…
22. Lee October 22, 2020 at 4:17 pm

    I’m confused about an aspect of Covid-19 research findings and news coverage of it. I read an article such as this that indicates high rates of asymptomatic positivity, but little if any discussion about the possibility that a significant portion of the population have a protective level of innate, most likely genetically determined resistance. While factors such as age and general health are much discussed and proven to be protective, although not universally so, there are obviously other things at work here, and wouldn’t it be helpful to find out? Is there no money to be made in discovering those who enjoy natural immunity and those who don’t? I guess all the big bets are on vaccines.
    1. Duke of Prunes October 22, 2020 at 5:43 pm

       Lately I’ve heard some speak of research that indicates the tests are too sensitive, and suggest that many of these asymptomatic case are actually false positives. I will have to look for these.

       Not saying there are not people with some level of immunity. In fact, of the handful of people I know who got sick, most did not infect their entire household.
       1. Lee October 22, 2020 at 6:38 pm

          Another case in the news was of a multi-generational extended family that got infected. The grandparents, aunts and uncles as well as the children fared well but both parents.unrelated one assumes, died. They were in their late forties, IIRC. A lot of unexplained things happening. Scientists and politicians caught flatfooted and all confounded by profit motive determining what gets studied and what doesn’t; which solutions are sought after and promoted, and which are not. Well, maybe a vaccine will save us. I’m no anti-vaxxer, I just got my flu shot, but I must say that my confidence in a warp speed produced vaccine is a tad bit shaky. Kamala Harris has volunteered to go first. Let’s see how she does.
          1. tegnost October 23, 2020 at 11:27 am

             Sure, Kamala will go first just like barack drank the detroit water…
             I’ll go last…no, no, don’t thank me…I just want to make sure that the MOU can get theirs first because what would we do without them… Of course, on second thought, if it were a truly safe and effective vaccine wall street would only allow it to be distributed to the big club that we ain’t in (h/t George Carlin) so instead of being last I just wouldn’t get it at all…
       2. drexciya October 23, 2020 at 7:54 am

          In The Netherlands the testing procedure has been changed recently, and since then, we see lots and lots of “cases”. Also, they’re not testing for other seasonal viruses. There’s a lot going on, when it comes to PCR tests. Proper treatment of the samples is the first step. And then we have the specificity and selectivity. Also, the number of cycles is relevant, when defining what is deemed a positive outcome.

          PCR tests are potentially very good, but there are some caveats, and it’s all about how you perform these tests. And now we’re performing them in a population, which might have been in contact with the virus months before. The big question is, how long will you still see virus fragments come up in a test? And given the consequences of having a positive test, even if you don’t have any symptoms, this is a big thing.
    2. ChiGal in Carolina October 22, 2020 at 6:54 pm

       I am confused too, about the implications of the new CDC guidance.

       An article was linked here, K is the new R, stating that transmission was mostly through super spreader events and 70% of those who have it don’t infect anyone.

       The new guidance says you don’t have to spend 15 continuous minutes together to get infected, it’s cumulative within a 24 hr period.

       And the justification Sanjay Gupta gave for it on CNN is that transmission now is being driven by people getting together with close friends/family they don’t live with.

       Which is it?
       1. Lee October 22, 2020 at 7:39 pm

          I’m assuming you are referring to the prison guard who caught it.

          “Specifically, during his 8-hour shift, the officer had 22 brief encounters (between 10 and 60 seconds each) with the inmates, totaling 17 minutes of cumulative exposure.

          The correctional officer wore a cloth mask and goggles during his encounters, but the inmates were not always masked.” CDC changes definition of ‘close contact’ for COVID-19

          It’s a real crap shoot out there.
23. UserFriendly October 22, 2020 at 4:32 pm

    I need it to grab something from the Tweet or post I am mailing myself, and put it in the subject line. That way I have a memory trigger for prioritizing when posting. Apple Mail meets this requirement, which is why I stick with that time-eating piece of garbage. Yahoo and Yandex do not. And on top of it all, my Internet connection as gone flaky again. Aaaargh! –lambert P.S. More soon.

    I’ve long thought Pocket would really be a great way to improve your workflow. It lets you save articles, optionally tag them with custom tags. It is also a great way around paywalls. I open NYT in incognito and save to pocket and LAtimes without incognito. Then it shows the articles in reader view without ads, which makes sites like the daily mail actually readable.
    1. drexciya October 23, 2020 at 7:55 am

       I hadn’t thought of that approach, when using Pocket.
       Very interesting.
24. Arizona Slim October 22, 2020 at 4:41 pm

    Exactly, Lee. What are the, ahem, COVID resisters doing right?
25. Synoia October 22, 2020 at 4:45 pm

    Lambert, on Covid 19, is there a graph that could be added without extra work of deaths by age group?

    If you like it compiled for you I could do that for the previous day.
    1. a different chris October 22, 2020 at 5:02 pm

       Yeah that would be helpful.

       We actually want to know two things, but probably not possible

       1) what percentage of an age-group actually gets COVID, this is basically a survey of how society works (old people are in old people’s homes, etc)
       2) what percentage of those infected, given an age group, die

       Because if only 1% of a given whatever group have some reaction to X, that sounds great until you find out that for whatever reason only 2% of said group are exposed to X. And the opposite is true, guys on sailboat trips around the world don’t get it but what does that tell you?

       Lies, damn lies and statistics.
       1. juneau October 22, 2020 at 9:29 pm

          FWIW CDC has a relatively current count of deaths by age group on their website
          https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

          I have a pet peeve about data on rates of Covid. Data on number of Covid cases in each age group requires adequate surveillance testing to see the rates of infection in the community. Sort of like the testing NY did in the spring, just sampling people at the grocery store at random. Our leaders have done work to test the ill in NY but surveillance testing, promised by many, is very hard to find anyway in the US in my humble efforts to find it. India has developed a paper test and there are other cheap methods to do widespread testing but we don’t seem to get it here. One may ponder why…
26. voteforno6 October 22, 2020 at 5:17 pm

    Re: Social Desirability Index

    So, I guess the author of that article is using another term for shy Trump voters. The ones that I’ve seen haven’t been very shy. On the other hand, I’ve heard enough stories of vandalism of Biden signs in Trump-leaning areas that suggest that the opposite may be true.

    That article also makes the fatal mistake, I think, of leaning too hard into what happened in 2016 to explain why Trump really is winning. The polls in 2016 weren’t that far off – Clinton still won the popular vote, and Trump pretty much had to run the table in the closest states, and even then his margins of victory weren’t very significant. If the polls this year are off by the same margin as they were in 2016, Biden still wins. The author of that article had to cherry-pick pollsters that aren’t the most reliable in an attempt to “prove” that Trump will win handily. I don’t buy it.

    In case anyone hasn’t noticed, it’s 2020, not 2016. A lot has happened since then, and I just don’t see that overwhelming support for Trump that some people think is lurking out there. Too many are still fighting that last war, rather than plan for the next one.
    1. Drake October 22, 2020 at 5:51 pm

       Things that have changed in 2020 vs 2016:

       Trump is now a 4-year incumbent rather with a solid record at least as good as those of recent exemplars, rather than a loony reality-show host trying to renegotiate his contract; his opponent is a befuddled, dreary old zombie whose platform is ‘Trump bad’ and ‘trust me’ and who is clearly just a weekend-at-Bernie’s lead; he survived a 3-year mendacious coup attempt conducted by the intelligence agencies, the mainstream press, and the democrats acting in lockstep unison; he survived an impeachment attempt because he wanted to investigate a leading Democrat’s open corruption; that leading Democrat is now his opponent and even more openly corrupt by the day; he survived MeToo and BLM movements weaponized against him and which ultimately did more harm to his opponents; and he’s campaigning in an environment of open censorship by social media and belittlement by mainstream press.

       Those are a bit of the lot that has happened since then, and his supporters are aware of it all and respect him for it. Certain people may not like it, but he’s a hero to many. As many others have said, there are two movies playing and most people only see one. I think Democrats are the more willfully blind this time around, like last time.
    2. Biph October 22, 2020 at 6:27 pm

       I think turnout will be the tell, Trump is running a base election the lower the turnout the better it is for Trump the higher the worse. Early voting numbers indicate we are looking at a high turnout election, but that obviously could change once we get to Nov 3.
    3. Carolinian October 22, 2020 at 6:41 pm

       cherry-pick pollsters that aren’t the most reliable

       Except that they correctly predicted the 2016 outcome when everyone else didn’t. Please note they do still think this election could be very close.

       I do believe the shy Trump voter thing may be real. Putting a sign in your yard is a gesture of support but it’s also an identity badge saying “i’m with the good guys.” Given all the atmospherics proclaiming Trump the new Hitler etc you can certainly see why people might be reluctant to publicly proclaim for him and in my very Republican (at least up until now) neighborhood there are lots of Biden signs, maybe two or three for Trump–adding that ninety percent of the yards have no sign at all. So these tea leaves don’t reveal a lot.

       We’ll know soon enough which pollsters were right.
       1. Biph October 22, 2020 at 7:37 pm

          In my light red part of a light blue State the Trump signs definitely outnumber the Biden signs, but there are noticeably more Biden signs than there were HRC signs 4 years ago. The number of Trump signs looks to be static from 2016. The big loser in the sign/bumper sticker election this year is Giant Meteor it’s signage and bumper stickers outnumbered HRC’s in 2016 I haven’t seen a 1 this year. I have seen one for Any Functioning Adult 2020 FWIW.
          1. ChiGal in Carolina October 22, 2020 at 11:50 pm

             And then there’s:

             presidents come and go
             WU TANG IS FOREVER
             1. Stillfeelinthebern October 23, 2020 at 9:05 am

                There is one of those signs on my block!!!!!

                I love it:)
             2. John Anthony La Pietra October 23, 2020 at 8:22 pm

                One here in South Central Michigan too.
          2. tegnost October 23, 2020 at 11:00 am

             The big loser in the sign/bumper sticker election this year is Giant Meteor it’s signage and bumper stickers outnumbered HRC’s in 2016 I haven’t seen a 1 this year.
             That’s because the whole charade is just not funny anymore
27. Brunches with Cats October 22, 2020 at 5:41 pm

    Thanks for the Frank Luntz interview, and thanks to Geof for the link in yesterday’s WC (NC commentariat is the best!)

    I started watching it at 5 a.m. after being up all night with severe anxiety over the unimaginable destruction we’re about to witness. By the time I realized the “clip” was an hour long, I already was hooked and watched to the end. I’ve never seen Frank Luntz and so have no idea what’s typical for him; in this interview, there’s something compelling about his facial expressions and body language — raw and vulnerable — that I think would be lost in listening while multitasking, definitely lost in reading the transcript (which normally would be my preference, too).

    Like Lambert, I don’t agree with everything he says (Oprah, eye-roll) but his message, depressing as it is, couldn’t be more timely. We’re in the final countdown before a deadly hurricane, and all the screaming into the wind won’t stop it.
28. Mikel October 22, 2020 at 5:47 pm

    “Mr. Market is not having a sad, so I would guess there’s no issue of their systems being overwhelmed.”

    Algos overwhelmed with kneejerk, BS headlines?
29. Leftcoastindie October 22, 2020 at 5:49 pm

    BallotTrax works!

    Hello xxxxxxxxxxxxx,

    This is a message from San Diego Registrar of Voters. Your ballot for the 2020 General Election was received and will be counted. Thank you for voting!

    I didn’t vote for either of the DemRep party candidates but concentrated on statewide and local races and ballot initiatives.
    Good Luck on voting!
30. NoOneInParticular October 22, 2020 at 6:28 pm

    NYT: “Russia Poses Greater Election Threat Than Iran, Many U.S. Officials Say”

    First paragraph:

    “many intelligence officials said”
    How many is many? What agencies do they belong to? What level are they?

    “…breaches that could allow Moscow broader access to American voting infrastructure.”

    Speculative.

    Second paragraph:

    “…American intelligence agencies, infiltrating Russian networks themselves…”

    Translation: we do it, too.

    “Officials did not make clear what Russia planned to do, but they said its operations would be intended to help President Trump”

    They don’t know what the Russians will do but they will try to help Trump. How reliable is their information, anyway?

    Third paragraph:

    “There is no evidence that the Russians have changed any vote tallies or voter registration information officials said. They added that the Russian-backed hackers had penetrated the computer networks without taking further action, as they did in 2016.”

    So far, the Russians have done nothing this time and did nothing in 2016.

    “American officials expect that if the presidential race is not called on election night, Russian groups could use their knowledge…”

    Speculative.

    Fourth and fifth paragraphs:

    Iran: “… the director of national intelligence, John Ratcliffe, [announced Wednesday] that Iran has been involved in the spreading of faked, threatening emails, which were made to appear as if they came from the Proud Boys, a right-wing extremist group.”

    “Officials briefed on the intelligence said that Mr. Ratcliffe had accurately summarized the preliminary conclusion about Iran. But Tehran’s hackers may have accomplished that mission simply by assembling public information and then routing the threatening emails through Saudi Arabia, Estonia and other countries to hide their tracks.”

    Iran took public info, made up some stuff, and emailed it to lots of people.

    Sixth paragraph:

    “Nonetheless, both the Iranian and the Russian activity could pave the way for “perception hacks,” which are intended to leave the impression that foreign powers have greater access to the voting system than they really do.”

    A fascinating paragraph in which the Times speculates, undercuts the premise of its story, all while trying to amplify that premise. Brilliant!

    And that’s where I’ll stop.
    1. Briny October 22, 2020 at 10:52 pm

       But Russia, Russia, Russia! With a side of Iran, Iran, Iran!

       What I don’t understand is their constant push for war with either a country that could easily destroy this one (nukes) or a country who would make Vietnam look like a Sunday school picnic should we actually invade? I just don’t get the objective here.
       1. ambrit October 22, 2020 at 11:40 pm

          Make the Homeland Folks afraid of some foreign ‘monsters’ and your domestic agendas fall into place as a result. People will give up a lot of personal freedom in exchange for security.
          Back in the “Go Go” years, a favourite exercise in subversive irony was the punch line; “You wouldn’t want your sister to ‘marry’ one, would you?”
31. Grant October 22, 2020 at 6:35 pm

    “Because voters are little children”

    It is a natural human reaction when everything is horrible to make believe. But, the way in which people willingly just buy into sappy nonsense is just nauseating. I mean, Biden is so empathetic, that is why he would veto single payer during a pandemic, supported beyond harsh drug laws (with a son battling addiction issues, very empathetic), the crime bill, the Iraq War, the bankruptcy bill and the rest. The man who told young voters that he felt no empathy because of them suffering thanks to people like him and his corruption. Yeah, that guy is just so empathetic because he hugs people. Maybe Bernie should have ran as a motivational speaker. His campaign slogan could have been, “Hugs for everyone!” These rubes would have cried their way to the ballot box. I wonder if they cry when poor people die because they can’t get healthcare or because their water is poisoned. Maybe in between HOA meetings.
32. MichaelSF October 22, 2020 at 7:08 pm

    Elites “built the great dams and nuclear plants that electrified the country, and threw in the interstate highway grid for good measure.”

    Funny, I don’t remember my grandpa telling me stories of all the millionaires working along with him to build a dam in the PNW during the depression. I guess they must have been busy elsewhere.
    1. flora October 22, 2020 at 7:51 pm

       The wealthy elites were being taxed to pay for it. Rich boaters in the northeast at the time took to calling hurricanes “roosevelts”, as in “it’s blowing a positive “roosevelt” out there” – not as a term of endearment. ;)
    2. WobblyTelomeres October 22, 2020 at 7:56 pm

       *Big Grin*
33. The Rev Kev October 22, 2020 at 7:31 pm

    “A sneak peek at Tales from the Loop author Simon Stålenhag’s next two art books”

    Since Lambert has featured this imaginative artist several times, I thought that I would make mention of another artist that does similar work. He is a Polish guy named Jakub Różalski and his work is set in about 1920-

    https://medium.com/brett-thurston-ideas/jakub-r%C3%B3%C5%BCalskis-1920-universe-is-terrifyingly-beautiful-8750e0da0a63

    Thought I would put this in before the crazy of the debates starts up.
34. flora October 22, 2020 at 7:37 pm

    Thanks very very much for the Frank Luntz interview. Very good.
35. The Rev Kev October 22, 2020 at 7:58 pm

    With all those featured tweets, I am glad that I do not do Twitter. Too much gas-lighting. When Obama says “Obama’s diagnosis is that folks stayed home in 2016 bc they got “lazy” or “complacent.”” the voter-shaming is getting a bit thick. Especially when he is basically saying that nothing is his fault with it.

    But what is bizarre is the one that mentions that “Following the debates, Democratic support for a fracking ban dropped an eye-popping 16 points, from 65% to 49%.” I mean, JFC! What is wrong with those people? Did they drink too much of the kool-aid? One of the best replies to that one following it was a guy that said “Progressive charlatans sold us the idea that we would move Joe Biden left, but Joe Biden is moving liberals to the right.” Damn right!
36. WobblyTelomeres October 22, 2020 at 8:00 pm

    So, odds on Trump storming off the stage?
37. Cuibono October 22, 2020 at 9:18 pm

    Maxwell “‘All the time that I have been in the house I have never seen, heard, nor witnessed, nor have [had] reported to me that any activities took place, that people were in distress, either reported to me by the staff or anyone else.’”obviously studied Clintons parsing methods
    1. ambrit October 22, 2020 at 11:46 pm

       Given Clinton’s known “visits” to Epstein, she probably learned those methods directly from “Dirty” Bill himself.
       1. The Rev Kev October 22, 2020 at 11:54 pm

          Obviously she is going for the Sgt. Schulz defence-

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmzsWxPLIOo
38. Jeremy Grimm October 23, 2020 at 1:48 am

    “NASA to Make Major Announcement of ‘Exciting News’ About The Moon”
    “The space agency did not reveal details about the discovery …”

    — They found a strange rectangular prism shaped monolith of some shiny, smooth, black material buried below the moon’s surface.
    1. John Anthony La Pietra October 23, 2020 at 8:47 pm

       +2001 — or rather +1999. . . .

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