Links 2/19/2022

Yves here. One of our moderators is off today through and including Monday. Please be patient, since it will likely take us a bit longer than usual to clear the moderation queue.

Boater who fell into the ocean off Santa Barbara coast swam FIVE HOURS to an oil rig nudged along by ‘an angel’ harbor seal Daily Mail

Eagles face another major threat in the US: lead poisoning Popular Science (resilc). First condors…

Photographer Captures Beauty and Power of Tornado Vortexes My Modern Met (David L)

MIT’s New Sustainable Plastic Can Be 3D Printed Apartment Therapy (David L)

The Nearly Extinct Polio Virus Just Resurfaced in Africa Gizmodo (Kevin W)


Black Death mortality not as widespread as long thought ScienceDaily (Anthony L)


Discovery of New HIV Variant Sends Warning for COVID Pandemic Scientific American (furzy)

GM has been saying this for a while, albeit in more geeky terms:

I hate wading into this: Efficacy of Ivermectin Treatment on Disease Progression Among Adults With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 and Comorbidities JAMA


CNN vs Ivermectin Igor Chudov

The new 1טeרmEכזiה paper proves it works. Jessica Rose

And IM Doc:

At the conference I attended this AM – this JAMA paper was brought up – and the conclusion was – maybe we had better look into this – this seems to have some effect.

If I read correctly – and please correct me if I am wrong – I am very tired – and may have missed something :

52 patients on IVM and 43 in the placebo group progressed to a severe form. OK. What is a severe form, what does that mean in the context of looking at the IMPORTANT data points? TO WIT: 4 ventilated in the IVM group, 10 in the placebo. 6 admissions in IS in the IVM group, 8 in the placebo. 3 deaths in the IVM group, 10 in the placebo.

So EVERYONE is concentrating on the fact that these already sick patients – IVERMECTIN had more that progressed to the sick form than placebo. “Progressing to the sick form” is always rather squishy and very subjective.

In the 3 endpoints that I care about as a practicing physician – ending up on a ventilator, admission, and death- IVM did way better than placebo. If we use relative risk reduction as PHARMA and the NEJM lavished on the vaccines – ventilation and death were both higher than 70% and admission higher than 50….Please remember – the vaccines are still touted as highly effective with RRV of SYMPTOMS now in the 20% range.

Again, the ID fellow left the audience today with the conclusion that this may really be beneficial – but here we are debating headlines again in our national media. NO ONE IS ACTUALLY TALKING ABOUT THE UNDERLYING DATA POINTS – JUST THE HEADLINES.

I am really sick and tired of this game. FFS – it has an incredible safety profile – it is cheap – and it has the above efficacy numbers for admissions, ventilations, and death. And yet – the press is still screaming IVM is dead – and this proves it. IT FAILED TO PREVENT THE SEVERE FORM – whatever that means. According to the clinical endpoints, it is certainly more helpful than Remdesevir. This study seems to suggest that it is a valuable tool to be used – certainly better than what we have available now. This study makes me want to use it more ——-

Narrow transmission bottlenecks and limited within-host viral diversity during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on a fishing boat BioRxIv


Canada protests: Police begin to make arrests at Ottawa protest BBC

Digital evidence, so treat with caution…. plus I assume this is not getting much traction except among those with strong pro trucker priors, which is what matters in the Battle of the Narrative:

Horse is fine, police tell trampled protesters RT (Kevin W)


Living with Covid-19: what does the future of the pandemic really look like? Stylist (Kevin W). The messaging is endemic!

OMG…Iceland has 370,000 people:


The End Game of China’s Zero-Covid Policy Nightmare Wired. Wow, the propaganda barrage does not end. And we think we have the moral high ground to criticize what China is doing with the Olympics?


Family of three all found dead at home from Covid Independent (resilc)


U.S. corn-based ethanol worse for the climate than gasoline, study finds Reuters (resilc)

Onset of modern sea level rise began in 1863, study finds Rutgers University (Robert M)

OSU research suggests Forest Service lands not the main source of wildfires affecting communities Oregon State University (resilc)

Singing in the Shadow of Homer Antigone (Anthony L)


How China Uses Bots and Fake Twitter Accounts to Shape the Olympics New York Times (Kevin W). Um, it’s called “marketing”.


The evidence is all around us: life outside the single market is an utter disaster Guardian (resilc)

New Cold War

Ukraine: Waiting for an ‘imminent’ war to start Asia Times (Kevin W)

Biden ‘convinced’ Putin will invade Ukraine in starkest warning yet Financial Times. Biden the psychic.

War in Europe and the Rise of Raw Propaganda CounterPunch

Military tactics: Zelensky plays both sides in Ukrainian crisis France24 (resilc). Um, what do you expect him to do?

Tariq Ali, News from Natoland New Left Review (Anthony L)

Vladimir Putin: Crafty Strategist or Aggrieved and Reckless Leader? New York Times

War Inc. Throws an Invasion Party and No One Shows Up Pepe Escobar (Chuck L)

Unable to Agree on Russia Sanctions Bill, Senate Settles for a Statement New York Times (Kevin W)


As I Write, Settlers and Police Are Attacking My Neighbors in Sheikh Jarrah Nation (guurst)

Imperial Collapse Watch

Memorandum for the Record Department of the Army. guurst: “Afghan autopsy.”

New scientific review punctures myth of missile defense Responsible Statecraft. Resilc: “Missile defense is a direct looting of the US treasury, but then what in the dod isn’t a scam of some sort?”


Take the 5th? The choice could soon be Trump’s in NY probe Associated Press (resilc)


Why won’t Biden pick a left-leaning nominee for Supreme Court justice? Washington Post. Oh come on, since when is the former Senator from MBNA left leaning?

Why Biden’s popularity will continue to suffer. Even though he is arguably not much responsible, it happened on his watch. And he could have bolstered incomes (“he owes me $600” or canceling student debt, for starters):

Forest Service oil transport plan would defy Biden climate promise The Hill

We Surveyed Experts on Political Violence. They’re Very Alarmed. New Republic. Resilc: “Another IMMINENT INVASION. More police/more surveillance funding.”

GOP Clown Car

The Republicans Are Also in Disarray New Republic

Just sayin’ the not so quiet part really loud:

Our Famously Free Press


Chris Cuomo accused of sex attack during office ‘lunch’; another CNN exec resigns Syracuse (bob)

Michigan Republicans plan ‘a full hand count audit’ of party’s convention votes Detroit News (ma)

Supply Chain

Vermont Maple Producers Facing Jug Shortage Will ‘Go With the Flow’ necn (resilc)

The Bezzle

Linda Evangelista shares photos of body ‘disfigured’ by fat-freezing treatment – the supermodel is done living ‘in hiding and shame’ South China Morning Post. This isn’t quite Guillotine Watch because top models actually work hard, often have a short shelf like (Evangelista IIRC did not but was not as durable as Kate Winslet) and are often shrewd businesswomen. Here because plastic surgery is not regulated as such and so you get outcomes like this.

Tesla’s radar-less cars investigated by NHTSA after complaints spike ars technica. Resilc: “Every other day, major issues.”

Texas led the country in new renewable energy projects last year CNBC

Elon Musks Asks Judge To Let Him Ignore SEC Settlement That He’s Been Ignoring Anyway Dealbreaker (furzy)

Class Warfare

LEAKED AUDIO: Amazon Union Buster Warns Workers ‘Things Could Become Worse’ Vice (resilc)

Sackler owners offer up to $6bn to settle Purdue Pharma bankruptcy Financial Times. They need to be tarred and feathered.

Study finds most unemployed young men have criminal records PhysOrg. Paul R:

Headline overstates the finding since it includes arrest records even with no convictions, counts up to age 35 as young, etc. But the numbers are still awfully high.

Raising pay in public K–12 schools is critical to solving staffing shortages Economic Policy Institute

Antidote du jour. Jason P: “My wonderful Akita dog in Akita prefecture”:

And a bonus:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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  1. Sub-Boreal

    Interesting reads on matters of current interest:

    1. Theme issue of Royal Society Interface Science on “Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2”. It’s entirely open access. This article looks particularly interesting: “An exploration of the political, social, economic and cultural factors affecting how different global regions initially reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic”.

    2. A thoughtful comparison of NYT and Toronto Star coverage of the Ottawa convoy protest:

    3. Interview with Swedish political writer and climate activist Andreas Malm:

  2. Laughingsong

    “Study finds most unemployed young men have criminal records . . . . But the numbers are still awfully high.”

    The lesson is learned,
    There’s nowhere to turn,
    And there’s no use waiting for help.
    When you’re left on the heap,
    There is nothing to keep you
    From going and helping yourself.

    1. anon y'mouse

      War on (some)Drugs and ’94 Crime Bill working as designed.

      plus, higher ed. grants etc only available to those without a record.

      you will never pay society enough for that joint the police “caught” you with when they pulled you over for that expired registration.

    2. Eric Anderson

      **Most employers believe that most people with criminal histories will commit offenses again,” Bushway said. “But that is not the case. And the risk of reoffending drops dramatically as people spend more time free in the community without a new conviction. Employers need to adopt a more nuanced approach to the issue.**

      I’m a 16+ years sober lawyer that chairs a space on a special needs court commission (shorthand = ‘drug court’). We deal with alcoholics, addicts, and mental health driven “crimes.” The special needs court models are a relatively new tool that I’m not sure is necessarily showing up in this longitudinal study. I’d like to hope it will make an impact in the long run because the whole point of these courts is to divert nonviolent offenders through intensive treatment and social rehabilitation teams. The court I sit on has about a 50% success rate. We are reintegrating offenders into the community once their addictions and mental health issues are under control.

      One drawback; however, is sticky misdemeanors. One tool the judge holds is the “Withheld Judgment” that allows the judge to withhold the imposition of sentence based upon successful completion. Another is expungement upon reapplying to the court after 5 yrs of good behavior post sentencing. The sticky point is that true expungement almost never happens. What really happens is felonies are reduced to misdemeanors which gives the successful individuals back their civil rights, but does not solve the employment issue. The prosecutors reason that they need some record or else they won’t be able to sufficiently judge the recommended penalties if the individual does actually re-offend in the future. Which is a lie. Those records will always exist in the FBI database, which the prosecutors can easily access. They cut heir nose off to spite their face because the inability to find employment is highly correlated with recidivism and radicalization.

      1. Lost in OR

        There is no such thing as “expungement” with current mass record keeping. Try searching your own name online. Your criminal record is available to anybody for a few bucks and a simple web search.

        1. Eric Anderson

          I have. I have a truthfinder account in fact. Comes in handy for checking up on opposing parties. Not really the point though. The point is having the document as evidence of rehabilitation.

    1. jr

      Same here, I took some screen shots of the error pages and sent them to Lambert in case they are useful. I have two more taken later in the afternoon as well.

    2. chris

      Whatever happened I’m glad it’s resolved now.

      As I adjust my tin foil berret I have to wonder if we’ll start to see crackdowns on sites like this because the simple questions they ask can’t be tolerated by those in charge. And given NC directly refutes many narratives currently en vogue among our leaders I would think someone from CALPERS will figure out how to do a solid for their masters and get the site labeled as “something something Russian” so that it’s miserable to fight for access.

    3. Carla

      I got Cloudflare messages that the NC web site was down from 8 a.m. to about 1:00 p.m. today — it was a bleak Saturday morning without my Naked Capitalism fix!

      1. griffen

        Fortunately I found a back up. Outside the Lines is a long running feature on ESPN. They discussed a court ruling this week, in the case of a former pitcher for a MLB team found dead of an overdose in his hotel in 2019..

        An Angels team employee was found guilty of trafficking and convicted, sentenced to 20 years. I could dig up some links if my arm was twisted. It is a sordid, sad tale of addiction by professional baseball standards, which is saying something.

          1. The Rev Kev

            You got that right. Yesterday I was watching videos of all the artillery strikes and mortar strikes that the Ukraine was launching against the Donbass. That plus the enormous car bomb that was used in an assassination attempt against a Donbass official. So then I turned onto the MSM TV news to hear that there were only “allegations” of strikes against the Ukraine and other such weasel words so forget “your lying eyes.” You could tell that they spent a lot of time parsing what to actually say on air. And these strikes, plus the evacuation of the women and the children & the mobilization of the Donbass men were all a cunning plot to justify – you guessed it – Russia invading the Ukraine. Ten years ago if you said that the Russian armed forces was going to turn out to be a force for peace and stabilization I would have laughed in your face. And yet, here we are.

  3. jr

    The NYT (reposted here without the firewall) presents an egregiously slanted article about the leader of Belarus and his relationship with Darth Putin:

    “We have a lot to discuss and to coordinate our stances on a range of issues,” the Russian president said ominously.

    Wow, truly terrifying. Did Putin say it in a scary voice? This is the writing of a child for children.

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      I was 100% certain Epstein was done in by a Shrub Republican (once a Shrub Republican always a Shrub Republican) former big city mayor with lots of cash, but now I’m not so sure.

        1. JBird4049

          The HuffPost article says that Brunel committed suicide without any qualifications. So, while it is electronic fish wrap, there’s that.

    2. Lambert Strether

      > Just a coincidence

      Daily Mail:

      Brunel is thought to have been alone at the time of his death and there were no cameras to record his final hours, according to an investigating source at La Santé – one of the toughest jails in France.

      Single sourced, but reminds me of something….

  4. griffen

    CNN is looking like a dumpster fire, as more of these anecdotes see the light of day. Nice people I am certain!!

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      I have a cousin who crosses paths with Zucker. He says he’s an ahole. The cousins who worked for that cousin (in the best summer time job imaginable) agreed.

      1. Pat

        I never met him personally and my big boss at the time Zucker had any influence on my job was a jerk but by all accounts Zucker made my big boss look good. (That he was hideously bad at his job was just icing on a really awful cake).

        I have no doubts that things at CNN were a minefield. I also have no doubt that Zucker worked to make CNN be more entertainment and reality television and less news. I think his vision for the CNN streaming service says it all.

  5. griffen

    Article about former top model Evangelista, well that is not the outcome anyone should expect. Runway model or not. It’s possible there is further context to the story.

    But yeah she is or has filed a lawsuit. CoolSculpting has run ads during men’s PGA golf tournaments on TV. Don’t know anything about that company.

  6. Carolinian

    Re ivermectin and IM Doc comment–Berenson is pushing this report as an ah ha against ivermectin. Which just goes to show how even self proclaimed experts on covid–but are writers not doctors–are hit or miss. Meanwhile the doctors are too often under the thumb of the big money medical establishment. And the ones who dissent are often unpersoned.

    1. Coby

      Safety; WHO has recommended administering ivermectin to entire populations to treat people who might have parasitic infections —meaning they consider it safe enough to give to people who haven’t even been diagnosed. 3 Millions of people have consumed billions of IVM doses as an anti-parasitic, with minimal side effects.

      World Health Organization Model List of Essential Medicines—22nd List, WHO (2021), -MHP-HPS-EML-2021.02-eng.pdf

      Efficacy: “Numerous clinical studies— including peer-reviewed randomized controlled trials—showed large magnitude benefits of ivermectin in prophylaxis, early treatment, and also in late-stage disease management. Taken together … dozens of clinical trials that have now emerged from around the world are substantial enough to reliably assess clinical efficacy and infer a signal of benefit with acceptable safety.”14

      Peter A. McCullough et al., “Multifaceted highly targeted sequential multidrug treatment of early ambulatory high-risk SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19),” Reviews in Cardiovascular Medicine, 2020, Vol. 21 Issue (4): 517-530

      1. truly

        I just read the 2-18-2022 NC article regarding BA 2. At one point they mentioned outcomes in India (without any mention of how IV might be a factor).
        What I find really challenging is that we can not have an open honest discussion about OBSERVATIONS of communities outcomes in which the use of IV might be a factor in those outcomes.
        IMHO the most profound evidence of the effectiveness of IV is looking at countries that are not resistant to its use. We do not have concrete evidence of how many people are using it, what the dosage they might be using, duration of use, etc. But the regions that are not resistant (certain states within India), or the countries not resistant (Japan) do seem to be having better outcomes.
        I am inclined to think IV might be highly effective. But due to a media blackout (now a brown out?) it is hard to draw any solid conclusions.
        Amazing how there can be so much evidence so quickly about BA2, but no mention if IV might (or might not) be as effective as some think it is with previous variants.

        1. Basil Pesto

          These things have been discussed repeatedly in comments here for months and months. The claims made with respect to India, and Uttar Pradesh specifically, and Japan, are based on terribly flimsy evidence, giving an extremely strong whiff of bullshit. Many of us have asked for stronger evidence (stronger than, say, the fairly ubiquitous “the ~Tokyo Medical Association~ made a soft recommendation for Ivermectin use and therefore Ivermectin is widely used in Japan and is responsible for keeping pre-Omicron case numbers low” – case numbers have shot up since that canard was being tossed out obviously) and it’s never forthcoming.

          Again, it is worth quoting GM’s comment from 16/1:

          If IVM was the magic cure it is thought to be, you would have been hearing about it 24/7. Just as various demagogues around the world did exactly that with HCQ last year (and then had to do large expansions of cemeteries around their countries).

          The main purpose IVM has served is as another tool for exacerbating the divisions in society over COVID, as part of the divide-and-conquer approach to managing the situation.

          Because the more one thinks about why IVM is not being given to people when they catch COVID and how that will magically cure everyone, the less one is thinking about why nobody is doing anything to stop the spread. And if people do take IVM, they are happy to be a part of the enlightened minority that thinks it holds the key to the universe, while ignoring the fact that they are on their second or third infection now and that their health is slowly but surely deteriorating as a result.

          I do wish we’d collectively stop arguing about this and let doctors just get on with using it if they want to, so we can actually address the full enormity of the Covid problem, which IVM has no more hope of solving than the vaccines do.

          1. truly

            Who is arguing? I think we are trying to have honest discussions about the best way to deal with this pandemic. This whole conversation started with a reviewed paper published in a solid journal that shows rather than 10 dead out of 250 we might only have three dead.
            Some simple back of a napkin math suggests that had the entire nation of US been a part of that study we might be at 300,000 dead rather than 900,000.
            Is that observation not worthy of discussion?

            I feel like you are trying to shut up the discussion of the potential upside of IV and quash any hope of any solutions. I am trying to be open minded and gather information. I do think there is real hope that we could still get this pandemic under control. People need to put aside their deeply ingrained biases on this issue, and I for one was excited to see IM Doc looking at this study and seeing some real hope. I was also encouraged that Yves and NC crew saw to having this conversation posted after months of skepticism. My first introduction to IV use for Covid was right here at this site. Seems like there has been an ebb and flow between positive views and negative. Seems pretty positive today.

  7. allan

    From all appearances, not a parody account:

    ian bremmer @ianbremmer
    if china was ever considering invading russia, this would be the time
    6:27 PM · Feb 18, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

    Poor Mr. Bremmer. Once The Blob crosses the blood-brain barrier, the disease becomes incurable.

    1. Lambert Strether

      > Once The Blob crosses the blood-brain barrier, the disease becomes incurable

      I always considered Snow Crash fiction, but now it’s looking more and more like a documentary. To program the brain’s firmware, swap out Sumerian and swap in “public relations” and you’re there. Some of these “diseases” are incredibly, incredibly tenacious.

  8. lordkoos

    Re the eagles and lead poisoning — copper bullets apparently solve the problem, but copper is a lot more expensive than lead. I wonder if other materials could be substituted, such as ceramic etc?

    1. jo6pac

      Steel is now being used for shot in shotgun shells to help solve the problem.

      Good to see you back up and running NC

  9. lordkoos

    Sustainable plastic from organic matter sounds promising, but the article does not say how much material needs to be used to make the plastic. Hopefully it won’t be cutting down a ton of trees to make a ton of plastic.

  10. bassmule

    Re: MIT’s new plastic: What am I supposed to do with these super-strong items at disposal time? Do they go in the trash? In the recycling bin? In compost?

  11. Wukchumni

    Biden was asked in a presser about inflation last week, and his response was to imply that Lester Holt was a wise-guy for bringing it up, the nerve of him!

    Trump only ever took all the credit for Dow Jonestown rocketing upward, while coup o’ Joe owns the inflation imbroglio in whole.

    The only thing impervious to inflation is HD TV’s-which seemingly only ever go down in price, everything else is up 15-20% minimum, and the elephants in the room will make hay come November, the only question being of how bad the slaughter?

  12. jo6pac

    I’m very disappointed in joe b. he hasn’t picked a day or time for the fight among who ever because it sure won’t Russia.

    Biden the psychic

    1. Michael Ismoe

      One doesn’t have to have psychic powers to see that Louis DeJoy still has a job. Family blog Joe Biden.

        1. Lambert Strether

          > DeJoy is doing the dirty work that needs doing

          Just like Becerra on DCEs and Medicare. All Becerra has to do is exactly nothing, while “innovation” rolls along.

          Makes me wonder what the not exactly highly visible Garland is doing. Nothing, too nothing.

      1. GramSci

        My understanding is that DeJoy is appointed by the USPS board of directors, not the President, and McConnell has been blocking nominees who would turn the USPS board against DeJoy.

          1. ambrit

            If so, then why is he still there?
            I’m with Mr. Beech above. DeJoy is a stealth saboteur. The Uniparty has spoken.

            1. jo6pac

              joe b. appointed one demodog and one repug so there still isn’t enough votes to get him out. Strange joe would that but I guess goes along with nothing will change;-)

  13. polar donkey

    In the last week, I read about avian flu outbreak in turkey and chicken farms in Indiana, Virginia, and Kentucky. I talked to a friend yesterday. His mom has some chickens. One has avian flu. That’s seems pretty disturbing to me since my friend’s mom is in Memphis. The flu must be fairly widespread in wild birds.

    1. Glen

      I will vote for Joe or any Dem when I get my 600 bucks, maybe (I will have to perform my token vote/means testing which means, no, I still won’t vote for you except maybe if you cancel student debt – and, no, I don’t have any student debt.)

  14. Icecube12

    I have been meaning to post something about the situation here in Iceland. The daily number of confirmed infections is deceptive, as the positivity rate is almost 50%. So figure a lot more. Mandatory quarantining (of people identified by contact tracing) was cancelled a couple weeks ago. Schools have never been closed and kids have under 16 have never worn masks, so kids have been leading in infections since school started last fall with delta. We have such a small population that we don’t see rarer outcomes as often as a larger country so we haven’t seen paediatric deaths (god, I hope we don’t) but a guy in his 20s recently died of this mild variant (the first of someone so young here), and deaths happen way more often than they did before December. We went from like 30 deaths as of the end of November and now 58). Paradoxically, I feel like we also see less news about deaths from covid than before. I did see a news item about someone suffering from long covid recently, but that kind of news is rare and I don’t think it is much in the public consciousness. It is true that there are fewer than eg Spring 2029 in the hospital and ICU, but there have been almost 3× as many deaths, so…? So many thousand times more cases, 3x more deaths, and fewer hospitalized. Maybe, as this site has said, Just fewer with pneumonia.

    At the same time, we have been told that all measures against covid will be cancelled within the next week. Whether that includes isolation for the infected and masking in shops is uncertain. The specialized covid ward at the hospital, which had for purpose to keep regular phone contact with those infected, has been closed and now the local health centres are supposed to do this job, as if they weren’t squeezed enough.

    There were like 430 hospital workers in covid isolation today, creating a situation described as “dangerous,” and the suggestion has been made, I think by the government, for infected workers without symptoms to be called back to work. The head epidemiologist said that would not be advisable but that there might be no other way if the hospital can’t operate. The nurses and doctors have said no way. But the government has put us in this situation, where every choice endangers public health when it comes to the short term stability of the health system. A lot of those bas– (family blog, censored myself) probably want the system to fail so they can sell us on a privatized health system anyway.

    Another interesting development: Iceland doesn’t test all cases to determine variant anymore, now they do only a sample. The epidemiologist said there’s no use testing them all, as omicron BA2 variant is by far dominant. Maybe that is the cause of the latest jump in cases last week. The epidemiologist says the wave should be on the descent come March and then hopefully we will have enough herd immunity for the future. If I only read Icelandic news I would probably be optimistic. But I read this site, so I am very worried.

      1. Icecube12

        Sorry, didn’t see this till now. In short, it’s complicated. I only got up to speed now when trying to form a reply.

        There are still some border restrictions, actually, but they depend on whether a person is vaxxed or not, whether a person is a citizen of an EU/EEA country, and person is a resident/has ties to people living here or not (we have more restrictions as we are deemed more likely to transmit to residents, which made some sense back in the day with less transmissible variants but I am not sure if it helps anymore…but hey, maybe it helps a bit).

        For those who live in Iceland or have ties to the country (e.g., visiting people who live here), we have to PCR test within two days of arrival if vaccinated/previously infected. If not vaccinated we have to take a test, quarantine for 5 days and then take a second test. So quarantining is still in place for some coming through the border. Though quarantine was broken a lot in the past when quarantine was still a major pillar of infection control, so I bet it’s really broken these days.

        If it’s a vaccinated tourist, I don’t think they have to test or anything upon arrival, but need to show a negative PCR test before boarding the plane. If not vaxxed and from EEA country, I think they need to do testing-quarantining-testing and if it’s an unvaxxed person not from the EEA, I think they can’t actually come to the country for tourism unless they are exempt in some way (like having a close relative who lives here), and then they have to test, quarantine, etc.

        There is a helpful website that helps travelers untangle this mess:

  15. Soredemos

    Ukraine is the only story in the world that matters right now, frankly. If there’s going to be open war, it’ll be in the next day or two.

      1. Soredemos

        I was thinking war instigated by Kiev, not a ‘Russian invasion’. The artillery barrage of Donbass is the most intense its been in seven years. If they’re going to attack, this is it.

  16. flora

    re: CNN vs vit I

    Did the authors redefine the word ‘severe’ for purposes of reaching their conclusion? (Not kidding.)

    1. IM Doc

      I must apologize – the email I wrote yesterday was quite a mess. As my granddad used to say – “A tired body can be cured with sleep. There is no cure for a tired soul.” I have a very tired soul – but I now have had some sleep. I really do not express myself clearly when I am tired.

      First of all – this study is NOT the way I have ever used this drug. I have used it for people who are still outpatients to keep them out of the hospital. It has worked well for that in the past – and continues to do so. This study is composed of patients who are already in the hospital being admitted. When I say “admission” above – it means admission to the ICU. So the primary endpoint of preventing severe outcomes seems to disfavor the drug – while each of the very specific secondary endpoints of ventilation, ICU admission or death show great benefit. The death endpoint in particular was quite striking.

      I have now had time to look online for trusted sources – and also really talk this through with multiple colleagues. None of us ever recall having the authors of a paper subvert very positive outcomes like this. I have talked to no one who thinks this is not very important – yet another positive signal among the fog. Because of the very low case fatality rate, this study is underpowered ( p levels), however, the endpoint numbers are so dramatic that it does make one pause. I am not alone. The following tweet is from one of the very best doctors Twitter has to offer referring to the same conundrum I point out above –

      At times like this, I have often had my students take in the caduceus – the two snakes wrapped around a rod that is the symbol of medicine. One interpretation of this symbol is the constant battle between science and art in my profession. We live in a world today that seems to put value only on “science” but that is completely anathema to generations of medical wisdom. There was a time when physicians used the science but also used the art to weave their way through very confusing situations.

      We are in a situation where there are no sure answers and will not be for a very long time. We are in a situation where people are dying. We have this paper and so many many others that seem to show varying degrees of benefit of this drug. It is about the safest drug in the world. It is dirt cheap. This study is showing that there was a RRR of 70% in this cohort of preventing death. The evidence is stating that 7 out of the 240 or so patients in this trial DID NOT DIE on the drug arm – It may have saved 7 lives.

      What on earth has become of us? What exactly are we doing? What are doctors even here for? This study makes me feel that this drug should be given to every single patient admitted to the hospital with COVID. GO AHEAD and do all the other CDC sanctioned stuff – but what is wrong with just adding this along with everything else? It is going to hurt no one and based on this data may very well save lives.

      There was a day not long ago in my profession where with the data we have now – this would never have been questioned…..but here we are. It is hard to understand for lay people, but doctors use agents all day every day for all kinds of reasons that have the flimsiest of evidence behind them. Much less than this drug. And yet, all of a sudden, we balk right now. Not just balk but actually punish the evil-doers. My profession has spent the past 2 decades pushing for emergency end-of-life use for many agents ( many of which would be equal to IV Drano in safety) and have been very successful. But now – on one of the world’s safest drugs – and very sick patients – this is happening?

      Again – what is wrong with us….

      1. curlydan

        After looking at the paper, the sample sizes, and the p-values, I come to the same conclusion as you, IM Doc. I have a M.S. in Statistics, so I’m pretty sure (95% confident haha) if the sample size had been n=1000 (or about 500 each in test and control) and the proportion of deaths the same, the study p-value of 0.09 for the difference in death would have been a p-value under 0.05. And then where would we be? The headline would be forced to say “IVM significantly reduces rate of death”.

      2. Greg

        Thanks IM Doc, appreciate your expertise.

        At first glance I though the CI’s were crossing zero as well as the high P values, so I wrote off the study. But I see from going back and looking after your comment that many of them are not only positive but centred quite positive indeed, which is interesting (formatting is a pig for those blocks of numbers in text, I don’t know why they didn’t use a table).

        The authors seem to believe that because they didn’t structure their study for deaths, and they have a meta-analysis showing no effect on deaths as a result of ivermectin, that they can disregard that part of their study.
        It seems peculiar to me that they’d publish those results while completely trashing them – would that be because they committed to testing that aspect pre-study and are therefore committed to publishing them? Not sure how it works in medical studies, but I would have expected them to just quietly not publish those figures if they wanted to downplay them.

      3. Eric Anderson

        Thanks for this Doc. I’ve been following pretty closely and it all seems driven by money. But the sole pandemic issue I’ve been struggling with that I can find no money driven rationale for is the 5 yr old cut-off for vaccination. I’m the parent of a 4yr old boy. I know parents who have 5yr olds that have been able to get vaccinated who are “smaller” than my child. I struggle to find a reason for the arbitrary age related vaccine cut-off. The dose is related to a child’s weight — am I wrong? I mean, for crying out loud, even carnivals know a child must be “x” tall before they let them on a ride. There’s no age cut-off to ride “the Beast.” Where is the science in this decision? Am I thick? Am I missing something?

        Honestly, I feel like bringing a class action for an injunction to force the CDC to base it’s decision on some biological determinant. The standard is whether an agency is acting in an arbitrary and/or capricious manner. I can’t see how this isn’t arbitrary and nobody seems phased in the least.

        1. Objective Ace

          The doses are related to the child’s weight because of the negative effects. There were no positive effects found for those under 5.. at least not at any reasonable sized dose Pfizer thought they could ethically give them.. and considering it’s Pfizer I think they probably pushed the limit.

          There’s plenty of biological difference between a 4 and a 5 yr old besides weight.. although I understand your point. I’d personally be more concerned about getting a 5 yr old 1 mo child vaccinated vs being unable to get a 4 yr 11 mo yr old vaccinated (see comment about Pfizer pushing ethics)..that’s just me though

        2. .human

          You want to hear arbitrary?

          I signed up for Medicare last year and figured that I would have time to compare my options for Part B. Silly me. When I did decide to additionally apply for Part B, I was told that it would not be effective until July 1, 2022! I complained all the way to my Congresscritter. The only reasons proffered were that it is “policy.”

      4. Screwball

        This study makes me feel that this drug should be given to every single patient admitted to the hospital with COVID. GO AHEAD and do all the other CDC sanctioned stuff – but what is wrong with just adding this along with everything else?

        I’ve wondered this very thing for a long time. It’s a “why not” kind of thing given the safety profile. And that doesn’t even get into the use as preventative, which seems promising as well.

        1. Dave in Austin

          A thank you and a warning for IM doc. Combat fatigue comes on slowly for those who are working very hard being truthfull and yet being submerged under wave after wave of BS. Each wave wears you down a bit more.

          Luckily the braintrust seems to have some statisticians willing to look at the waves hitting you. You are most valuable doing your daily work as an IM doc and pointing out the pseudo-science articles that need to be looked at. You only have so many cycles to use. I’ve on two occasions been under the deluge and know how oppresive it can be.

          No real advise for you, but a good night’s sleep followed by a day with the grandkids in the park- with the cell phone alerts being screened to keep it down to the real emergency calls- might help. COvid, like the Ukraine, is a marathon, not a sprint.

          Keep it up and stay sane and safe.

          1. John Zelnicker

            IM Doc – You’re welcome. Just a small token of appreciation for all of your work in taking care of your patients the right way and educating us here at NC.

            It’s an oldie but goodie from the 1960’s. I’m so glad you liked it.

      5. Three Skies

        Yes, thank you very much IM Doc for all your posts; a worthwhile discussion of the paper IM Doc is commenting on is available at Drbeen Medical Lectures. It is entitled “3 Deaths in Ivermectin Arm, and 10 in Standard of Care Arm | Malaysian Ivermectin Study”. 42 minutes. If YT takes it down, it will be available at Odysee, where he has had to move his discussions of IVM because YT has taken them down and threatened to close down the channel..

      6. urblintz

        Thank you IM Doc – your comments always provide good scaffolding for those who’ve been gobsmacked by the politicized, indeed, cruelly derisive dismissal of both the drug and its advocates.

        It is hard to understand for lay people, but doctors use agents all day every day for all kinds of reasons that have the flimsiest of evidence behind them. Much less than this drug. And yet, all of a sudden, we balk right now. Not just balk but actually punish the evil-doers. My profession has spent the past 2 decades pushing for emergency end-of-life use for many agents ( many of which would be equal to IV Drano in safety) and have been very successful. But now – on one of the world’s safest drugs – and very sick patients – this is happening?

        It’s unforgiveable.

        1. Amfortas the hippie

          related, i think…since i spend so much time hanging around in parking lots in the south texas medical center, i’m confronted with this quite often:
          the Cadeucus…the winged rod with 2 snakes…is that of Hermes/Mercury…and is a symbol for Commerce, not Medicine.
          the Rod of Asclepius, oth, is just a rod…only sometimes with wings on top(and the wings are a late imperial addition)..and,
          importantly, only One Snake.
          the latter is the symbol for Medicine.
          i see the former…the one for Commerce…about 90% of the time these symbols are used…such that it stands out when they use the actual symbol for Medicine.
          I have thought that this says a lot, since i realised the substitution, many years ago.
          at the base symbolic level, they are telling us right up front that it’s all about the money.

  17. JacobiteInTraining

    Old lady knocked over/trampled by horse: I fear the Canadian protestors have a *lot* to learn about how protesting works, but they will learn. Peaceful or not, popular or not, right or left or not….once the cops show up on horses, you get the heck outta da way. Or, if not, you get trampled, pepper sprayed, maybe skull cracked and arrested.

    That’s just the way it works. You wanna avoid it – you dont go, or you chicken out and run when the riot police start lining up. If your cause merits your conviction, wounds will follow.

    Welcome to the resistance, friends.

    I wasn’t here for this specific day….Portland OR 2011…but got my (then 40-something) butt teargassed and kettled on several other days:

    And no – I don’t ANY peaceful protestor (left or right) to have this happen to them. I would say something about having more in common with anyone who has been teargassed by the pigs, and that maybe we should be joining hands, but I fear few would ‘get the joke’.

    1. Michael Ismoe

      I hate to use Fox News as a source but none of the “real” media will cover this. My liberal friends are becoming unhinged about the Convoy on DC and want to see Stinger missles set up on the Baltimore-Washington Parkway.

      For all the blood lust about “Trump’s fascism” they seem to have no problems with stopping protests they disagree with. I guess they haven’t quite conceived that a President DeSantis might be tin their future.

      1. The Rev Kev

        I don’t suppose it would help to remind your liberal friends that the Convoy to DC does not have an air wing and so Stinger missiles won’t be of much help as they are manpads. Maybe you should tell your friends that sometimes you have to just sit back, chill out, and enjoy the view- (1:25 mins)

    2. jonhoops

      Jacobite, Exactly. I listen to these people complaining about tyranny when all the police had done was give them a sternly worded letter to pack up and leave. They have been treated with kid gloves for nearly a month. Then they made the mistake of actually threatening the profits of the business community to the tune of 300 million a day. You can be sure the pressure was intense on Trudeau from the minute the Windsor bridge was closed. They probably could have camped out in sleepy old Ottawa for much longer if they hadn’t pulled that stunt.

      I almost feel sorry for the naivete of of some of these people, they actually believe these kindergarten stories about democracy.

      As you said welcome to real protest now that the cops finally showed up. And there are plenty of Canadians that know the real score on how protesting works, just ask the indigenous pipeline protestors from BC.

      1. Aumua

        Well at least they finally get a little taste of that victimhood they’ve been so desperately seeking.

  18. Greg

    Re: Iversomething

    Results Among 490 patients included in the primary analysis (mean [SD] age, 62.5 [8.7] years; 267 women [54.5%]), 52 of 241 patients (21.6%) in the i##n group and 43 of 249 patients (17.3%) in the control group progressed to severe disease (relative risk [RR], 1.25; 95% CI, 0.87-1.80; P = .25). For all prespecified secondary outcomes, there were no significant differences between groups. Mechanical ventilation occurred in 4 (1.7%) vs 10 (4.0%) (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.13-1.30; P = .17), intensive care unit admission in 6 (2.4%) vs 8 (3.2%) (RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.27-2.20; P = .79), and 28-day in-hospital death in 3 (1.2%) vs 10 (4.0%) (RR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.09-1.11; P = .09).

    Sorry can someone who spends more time in this field explain to me why the primary result is being treated as meaningful in the summary, while the secondary are not? It looks to me like they don’t have enough data to draw conclusions on *any* of those results.
    The CI’s bridge over zero and the P’s are large, which to me says they can’t show the effect size isn’t zero.

    1. whatmeworry

      true. also true then that the headline shouldn’t be it doesnt work but that it was not proven to work in this study. and anyone with an open mind would agree with IM doc that the secondary outcome measures are far more important. and they are trending positive. Given a a low CFR these studies need to be much larger to show significance.

    2. Greg

      To be clear, after reviewing the paper and reading IM Doc’s comment I realised I’d seen a minus sign where there wasn’t one in that block of text. The CI’s are all solidly positive, it’s just the P values that are off – study too small, no evidence they’ve got more than noise.

      1. dm sv

        I think it is important to remember that there are two columns of CI’s reported in Table 2 — BOTH for the absolute difference in the variable being reported AND for the Relative Risk.

        In the text of the paper, they recite the RR’s. which is what I think you are talking about, given the part you excerpted in bold: (relative risk [RR], 1.25; 95% CI, 0.87-1.80; P = .25). For RR CI’s crossing zero is not the meaningful benchmark — crossing 1.00 is the benchmark, because this is a CI for the RR and 1.00 would be the null. So the p values are correct, and no endpoint reached statistical significance, hence the label as a negative study.

        The fact that there are subgroups that approach significance is intriguing, and might mean something. The study might well be underpowered. But it is not obvious that doubling the study size would yield statistical significance. It could go the other way. That’s why subgroup analysis is generally hypothesis generating rather than definitive since most studies are not always powered for the secondary end-points.

  19. Some Guy

    I get that it is useful to see what is being circulated in the MAGA-bubble, and that Naked Capitalism readers are expected to be media literate, and it came with a disclaimer, but it still seems like in a potentially life or death situation, you need to be more careful in passing along disinformation such as that being pushed by Sara Carter without calling it out as such.

    I mean, she posted that the person in the incident died, without anything solid to go on, and left that up long after it was completely debunked. And rather than change her tune after being caught out for lying about a matter that serious, she just carries on lying, posting about people being trampled even though nobody was, as is known by all at this point (except folks in the MAGA-bubble, and NC readers relying on your links to know what is going on).

    It’s too bad there is no media in Canada so you have to rely on reports from Russia, the U.S. and England, but at least the BBC did an OK job summarizing from 5,000 miles away.

    1. juanholio

      I had never heard of Sara Carter, but I have a very effective hueristic for allocating credence to such Twitter links. Just to scroll down and see who the other the suggested tweets are from.

      If it’s a rogues gallery like Candace Owens, Cernovic, Mike Pompeo and Matt Gaetz, you instantly have some valuable context, if you know what I mean.

    2. Lambert Strether

      > Sara Carter

      I don’t have time to do a deep dive, and I’m confused. The Daily Beast story consistently says that the “woman dying after being trampled” story was false (and Carter walked it back). But they don’t say that trampling as such was false or walked back. For that, we have a police denial, but police denials are hardly dispositive. (Needless to say, police trampling people with horses is bad, whether they die or not, and that is the tweet that Yves posted.)

      1. Gareth

        I looked into it last night; no major Canadian media at the time had bothered to track the woman down to check on her status. They just repeated the police claim that she “fell” and was fine. The Toronto Sun was the only outlet that acknowledged the Ottawa police’s claims regarding the woman’s condition had not been verified. I did find video of one guy who spoke with some individuals who claimed they took her to the hospital for evaluation. They said she has a dislocated shoulder and extensive bruising.

        Carter’s “reports of death” likely came from a number of videos posted after the event claiming the woman had died. These videos are of people who appear to be on the streets of Ottawa. Others claiming to be present at the protest commented that those videos were untrue and that the individuals were provocateurs hurting their cause. It would be interesting to see these videos arranged chronologically to determine who started the rumor. The death claim is a blatant lie when you look at the three main videos of the incident, and the intent does appear to be instigating violent confrontation with police forces. There are a couple of other discussions that indicate a different woman may have had a heart attack during the day and the she was the individual who died in hospital.

        Lastly, the Ottawa police’s claim of a bike being thrown is less than a half-truth if you give them the benefit of the doubt. The video shows the man holding the bicycle the entire time. He appears to turn the handlebars in a possible attempt to tap the back hoof of the gray horse as the police use the horses to push the crowd. The gray horse seems unfazed. The problem for the Ottawa police is that the black horse is the one that did the trampling, not the gray one, and the choice to continue pushing the animal forward when the crowd made safe progress impossible was made by its rider.

        It doesn’t help that the new leadership has decided to use their Twitter feed to run psyops against the protestors. Unprofessional tweets that sound like an abusive partner or parent should not be coming out of a police department’s Twitter account. A simple “We are clearing the area. Everyone must leave or face arrest,” will do.

      2. Some Guy

        The video is pretty easy to track down, don’t need to rely on the police.

        Gareth’s summary is pretty accurate, but when you say ‘police trampling people with horses’ to me it reads similarly as ‘police pepper spraying protestors’ (which they did do of course) – i.e. that they were deliberately knocking people down, running them over, etc.

        Rather than what actually happened, one of the protestors (with the brown coat) repeatedly pushing into the path of the horses, while holding onto the woman in red, they both get knocked over, the horses jump over them and that’s it, one isolated incident, instigated by a protestor, with no serious injuries.

        As for the death, Carter walked the story back half a day later, long after it was known to be false, it was not an innocent mistake on her part. It is fortunate her irresponsible behavior didn’t lead to any serious violence. But we see what happens, this sort of sensationalism is rewarded (even on NC) so we will keep getting more and more of it.

  20. Maritimer

    Canada protests: Police begin to make arrests at Ottawa protest BBC
    According to the CBC Canadian Blather Corporation, the State Propaganda outlet, the courageous and well protected Police (Ottawa, Federales, Quebec) have finally besieged the Bouncy Castles. They are now positioning their trebuchets for a final assault. The children meanwhile are preparing caldrons of lukewarm maple syrup as a defense. Prior to this, the Police successfully secured the donut pavillion (yummy), the saunas, the pizza ovens and the hot tubs.

    Prime Injector Trudeau with sidekicks Freeland and Carney both Board Members of the World Economic Forum act on behalf of Pfizer, AZ and JJ, all convicted criminal organizations. Carney tops it off by being a Bilderburger. Canada subsidizes and supports these criminal organizations with Canadians’ tax dollars. Now Canadian Police act as enforcers for criminal organizations, plain and simple. Incidentally, the Ottawa Police do not have to be vaccinated in order to make a living, while the Truckers do have to be either vaccinated or suffer 14day quarantines.

    Of course, the Truckers are all northern rednecks, misogynists, racists, stand with the Swastika, hold unacceptable views and take up too much space as described by the Chief Injector.

  21. Old Sarum

    Mad magazine is no longer with us (r.i.p.), but MAD is alive and kicking.

    Given the propensity for death-cult ideologies I’m wondering whether the button will be pressed soon. Did Ukraine really get rid of its nukes? Given what the 20th century served up to them I would be surprised if they didn’t keep a stash. Keeping in mind of course the battlefield nukes of other “actors”…

    Kissing my small donkey-like equine goodbye…


    ps Tsar, Czar, Kaiser; why would you name yourself after someone who got murdered in the manner of Julius C.?

  22. Maritimer

    “NEW – Bill Gates at Munich Security Conference: “Sadly the virus itself – particularly the variant called Omicron – is a type of vaccine, creates both B cell and T cell immunity and it’s done a better job of getting out to the world population than we have with vaccines.”

    19 Feb 2022 12:29 pm

    Billionaire Bill Gates stunned audiences at a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference by saying that by creating immunity cells, the omicron variant of the coronavirus would have reached more people than the prescribed vaccines.”

    Note the “sadly”. Well, I guess so, first they got rid of Hydro and Hoss Paste but now they have this problem. Confirms what many have said, it is not about lives and Humans but about control and $$$$$$$$$$.

    Nature wins Science loses, what a sad day for Scientists.

    1. Objective Ace

      I think much more research and skepticism is warranted but

      1) danger implies an overall worse outcome but a higher likelihood of covid *if* the symptoms and longcovid likelihood are reduced is not necessaeuly a worse outcome

      2) the higher likelihood of covid could entirely be due to behavioral changes. Ie. Tell people vaccines “protect you from covid” and they do things that increase the chances of getting covid

      1. juanholio

        Perhaps the people that haven’t taken the vaccine by now just aren’t that worried about covid, and so they won’t bother to get tested, unless they end up in hospital ward?

  23. C.O.

    Further to the protests in Ottawa, Canada, just in case members of the commentariat may not have a ready link to the free video streaming service for the debates in HoC and Senate:

    CBC uses this all the time, but it is always nice to have the direct link.

    1. Jason P

      That’s Akita-komagatake in October ’21. Beautiful area, lots of hot springs. Bears for sure, but we haven’t seen one yet.

  24. The Rev Kev

    “Black Death mortality not as widespread as long thought”

    I have my doubts as the to veracity of this approach of using pollen samples to indicate death rates. It may be indicative but I do not think that it would be conclusive. True, the urban areas got hit pretty bad but so did the rural areas and I believe that rural areas of Scandinavia got almost cleared out. This may have been a result of urban dwellers fleeing to the country side and unwittingly talking the disease with them. But the gold standard for judging the effects of the Black Death would still be England whose records have survived virtually intact unlike many regions in Europe. When peasants died there was a small fee or something that had to be paid to the Church Bishops who were typically land-owners. So when the Pandemic hit, there was a big bonus for those Bishops as so many of these fees were paid (and which survive recorded). But after that, rental collections collapsed as those peasants were no longer there to till the land leading to large land tracts falling into disuse. All sorts of schemes and ideas had to be used to keep the land in production but all of this was recorded and has been analyzed in later centuries to judge the true effects and mortality of the Black Death.

  25. HJR

    re Digital evidence, so treat with caution….

    A tweet from Sara A. Carter, FOX contributor.

    The tweet included here was posted by her at 08:56
    She kept tweeting that she could not confirm the information.
    At 09:34 she posted a correction:

    Regardless, she left up the original post, even though she knew it was untrue. The incorrect information has been retweeted more than 15,000 times.

    Here’s a useful tweet thread about her actions:

    A lesson in how misinformation becomes fact in too many minds. Thread:

      1. The Rev Kev

        Tucker Carlson is just like Rachel Maddow – an entertainer. I think that both individually and legally argued this in court to get out of legal trouble. If AOC wants to be a polly, she should grow a thicker skin. Unless she was trying to weaponize this slur to get more likes of course.

        1. Aumua

          Tucker arguably has more power than AOC though, as far as influence over people’s thinking goes. So for him to use his platform to denigrate and otherwise attack people should (arguably) be held to at least as strict a standard as AOC’s behavior here.

        2. lance ringquist

          if i was the squad, i would put as much space as i could from the nafta democrats disastrous policies as soon as i can.

          i would ignore the opposition as best as they can, and concentrate on reversing nafta billy clintons, empty suit hollowman obama, and nafta joe bidens disastrous polices.

          they do not even need to name names, let tucker say he agrees with them, and let tucker name names, because he will.

          i say they have so little time left to do this, the election is right around the corner, and to take away the ammo on the right, the squad must understand this before its to late, many of them may lose their seats people as so radicalized now.

          “Perhaps one of the most interesting, if not frustrating parts of the rise of Trump is the inability to get Democrats to accept the idea that the economic policies of Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama set the stage for a man like Trump. I think that among the Clinton Liberals, the madness has reached the stage the Tea Party reached with its “Birther” conspiracies around Obama.”

  26. The Rev Kev

    ‘Eric Feigl-Ding@DrEricDing·Feb 18
    Million dollar question—did the tree ? fall over “because of the storm”, or just merely fall “with the storm”?’

    Obviously the tree had pre-existing conditions. Meanwhile in Oz, some people are shocked, shocked I tells ya, that they have gotten a second Covid infection. And the Guardian is going along with this pretend shock but notes that ‘No data on Covid-19 reinfections is currently being collated by the federal government.’ The Omicron wave is slowing down now to the relief of a lot of people – and businesses. Wait until their ‘immunity’ wears off and there is a second Omicron wave with the same people getting sick a second time-

  27. Wukchumni

    I was doing some research on the only Boy Scout camp within the confines (ran from 1939 to 2011) of a National Park-here @ Wolverton in Sequoia NP, and I came across a photo of John Ehrlichman from 1941 as part of a group of scouts who were walking the High Sierra Trail across the Sierra to Mt Whitney and it piqued my interest, as i’d only really thought of him as Nixon’s henchman-as in sneaky illegal, but it turns out he was really the catalyst for the environmentalist movement and all that, being an avid outdoorsman and a very persuasive lawyer.

    Nixon’s environmental agenda was powered by several of his lieutenants, especially Ehrlichman, a political moderate and former land-use lawyer. Ehrlichman had won local acclaim in Seattle for successfully fighting a proposed industrial plant on an island in the Puget Sound, and he coupled his passion for the environment with hard-nosed political instincts. Once in the White House he sold Nixon on the environment, showing him polling data and, Whitaker recalled, making him see it was “politically dangerous if he didn’t get on board.”

  28. dm sv

    Yves et al

    OK, a bit late to the party, regarding the JAMA study on ivermectin.

    I come to NC regularly as an oasis of sanity, but I’m just not understanding all the fuss here. It is clearly a negative study. Full stop.

    The Table 2 results are not ambiguous. The only question is whether the borderline results for mortality and need for ventilatory support might be a signal of something. They might. But then you’d have to posit a mechanism to respiratory failure and death independent of a decline in oxygenation of tissues. That seems like a stretch. It is just as likely the play of chance — unless you have a strong a priori conviction that the thing has to work. I don’t.

    But ever was it thus when data refutes a belief strongly held. The results certainly don’t “prove that it works”. Using the point estimates without the variation is a bit amateurish. Sure, the study could be underpowered to detect a small but meaningful difference in a few of the secondary endpoints. All that says is that it wouldn’t be unreasonable to pursue a larger study, if anyone will bother to conduct it, but you’d need to have a better theory of the O2 sat results first.

    As it stands, when the FDA applied such a slack standard (as they did in approving the Alzheimers drug Aduhelm) we rightly accused them of crapification and regulatory capture.

    On the other hand, the Paxlovid data published a few days ago are frickin’ impressive. I’m on Day 3 of my pills.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      You are just talking over IM Doc and not engaging what he said. That’s bad faith.

      It is not a negative study, as IM Doc has now explained twice and an “ID” (infectious disease) doctor leading a grand rounds group to discuss the paper also concluded. The paper’s text is inconsistent with its most important and definitive data. The clear clinical endpoints are positive for ivermectin. The paper relies on metrics it that are not remotely standard for outcomes reporting and the paper does not even define to come to negative conclusions.

      That is before getting to the observation that I have made repeatedly, that an ivermectin study on patients that are already in the hospital is designed to fail. The protocols are for its use as a prophylactic and early in the disease process, way before hospitalization (which is usually 7-10 days after infection). If you administered monoclonal antibodies to hospitalized Covid patients, you’d expect to see poor results for that too. So you would trash monoclonal antibodies based on a trial based on the not-recommended use case?

      It’s actually surprisingly positive that this study found that the ivermectin group had fewer needing ventilation or dying than the placebo group.

  29. MichaelC

    Gotta hand it to Hillary for her unrelenting and opportunistic chutzpah in shutting down the Durham story in both the MSM and Right wing media.

    In case you weren’t paying close enough attention to the Sara Palin v NYTimes suit, Judge Rackoff dismissed the suit due to lack of evidence of ‘actual malice’by the NYT.

    The determination of the definition of ‘actual malice’ will now be in the hands of the Supreme Court to determine if Palin’s appeal ends up on their docket.

    Hillary’s invocation of ‘actual malice’ in her speech dismissing the claims isn’t lost on any media outlet, right or left, that might be tempted to investigate Durham’s allegations.

    The irony of that fool Palin’s hubris playing right into the hands of that Master Class manipulator Hillary is just too rich.

    The bloviating in the MSM about how the right wing media has gone radio silent on the story, because the accusations are ‘false’ has nothing to do with veracity, but all to do with potential libel liability.

  30. Manfred Keeting

    I like Jessica’s theory that the study was manifestly positive but framed as a negative outcome for ivermectin so as to pass through the Malaysian anti-invermectin censors. Seems to have worked!

Comments are closed.