Lambert and I, and many readers, agree that Ukraine has prompted the worst informational environment ever. We hope readers will collaborate in mitigating the fog of war — both real fog and stage fog — in comments. None of us need more cheerleading and link-free repetition of memes; there are platforms for that. Low-value, link-free pom pom-wavers will be summarily whacked.
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Timing a Recession vs. Timing the Stock Market A Wealth of Common Sense
Finance and climate change risk: managing expectations Bank of International Settlements
Fundamentally, financial instability arises when the financial and real sectors are out of sync, as exemplified by the financial boom-bust phenomenon. Financial expansions, on the back of aggressive risk-taking, fuel economic activity and overstretch balance sheets. In the process, asset prices and the volume of credit become increasingly disconnected from the capacity of the real economy to generate the corresponding cash flows. Since this disconnect is inherently unsustainable, the process goes into reverse at some point, generally abruptly and violently.
Seen in this light, the risks to financial stability linked to the transition are two-sided. One side is what has attracted attention so far – exposures to overvalued “brown” assets, which should lose their value (become “stranded”) as the transition proceeds. The concern here is that investors either sleepwalk into “brown vortices” or act rashly, generating disorderly “brown runs” (eg Delis et al, 2018). But there is also another side, which has received far less attention and is more similar to the familiar boom-bust pattern. This relates to exposures to either overvalued “green” assets or to assets that purport to be green; a “green bubble”, for short (Carstens, 2021, Aramonte and Zabai, 2021, Cochrane, 2021 and Tett and Mundy, 2022),The first side reflects an underestimation of the scope and speed of the transition; the second an overestimation.
The risk of a green bubble is material.
Crowning fury Searchlight New Mexico
You have a second body High Country News
Aerosol particle emission increases exponentially above moderate exercise intensity resulting in superemission during maximal exercise PNAS. Descriptive study, n = 8. From the Abtract: “Aerosol particle emission increases moderately up to an exercise intensity of ≈2 W[atts]/kg and exponentially at higher exercise intensities. These data not only explain SARS-CoV-2 transmissions during indoor group exercise but also can be used to design better targeted mitigation measures for physical activity indoors such as physical education in school, dance events during weddings, or high-intensity gym classes such as spinning.”
Neurodevelopmental Outcomes at 1 Year in Infants of Mothers Who Tested Positive for SARS-CoV-2 During Pregnancy JAMA. retrospective cohort study, n = 7772. Commentary:
— Shematologist, MD (@acweyand) June 10, 2022
Shanghai reimposes lockdowns after detecting 11 Covid cases FT. Again, if this is happening in Shenzen (or other of the many ginormous cities in China) it’s not being reported in the West. So what’s special about Shanghai, besides the local administration?
Virus testing the new normal as China sticks to ‘zero-COVID’ AP. The real story here, besides local administration screw-ups and conservative aghastitude, is China’s belief in transmission either by fecal plumes or fomites:
You can't even go to the toilet in Communist China ‼️
Shanghai local management committee, wants to control everything including going to the toilet. Now the problem is that the elderly don’t know how to sweep the code to use public toilet, neither been taught. pic.twitter.com/ohP5g714aV
— 澳喜要闻（新号） (@ahnewspace) June 5, 2022
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In the eyes of others, the US is not the benign power it thinks it is Dani Rodrik, South China Morning Post
Bangkok’s refusal to be automatized by delivery apps The Urban Activist
Health Minister & Hanoi Leader Both Arrested Vietnam Weekly. “Millions of dollars in kickbacks and bribes for a test kit that the WHO never approved for international use.”
Myanmar raising bloodthirsty death squads Asia Times
Indonesia to allow more palm oil exports with extra charges: Minister Channel News Asia
‘We won’t roll over and surrender’: Boris Johnson vows not to let rail unions take Britain back to the 1970s with strike set to paralyse the country THREE times this month as he digs in for battle over pay and job security Daily Mail
New Not-So-Cold War
Russia, Turkey back plan to export grains; Ukraine doubtful AP. Via Tass (paraphrased by AP), Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkey Vasily Bodnar: “Effective security guarantees are required for maritime shipments to resume. These guarantees must be provided through the supply of appropriate weapons to Ukraine to protect its coasts from maritime threats and the involvement of the navies of third countries in protecting the relevant part of the Black Sea.” So, give us more weapons or we don’t sell you grain.
Double standards haunt US and Europe in NATO dispute with Turkey The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer
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U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy, Officials Say NYT. Blame cannons gradually being relaid….
When the war in Ukraine recalls the Spanish Civil War of 1936 French Daily News
Torpedoes In the Water Matt Stoller, BIG
Biden Urges Congress to ‘Crack Down’ on Shipping Maritime Logistics Professional
Semiconductor Subsidy Doom Loop Boondoggle
Read the full text of chair Bennie Thompson’s remarks in first Jan. 6 hearing CBS. Presumably Thompson’s timeline and Cheney’s timeline are co-ordinated. If so, this is commentary:
Part one: Trump repeatedly and aggressively lied to the public falsely claiming the 2020 election was stolen from him.
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) June 10, 2022
Capitol riot panel blames Trump for 1/6 ‘attempted coup’ AP. A fine example of liberal Democrat aghastitude from a staff writer at Condé Nast’s Vanity Fair:
The only death that day on the Capitol grounds was a rioter the cops whacked. The other deaths were, IIRC, from heart attacks, and off the grounds. There were only two (2) indictments for violence during the riot, as AP’s chart in yesterday’s Water Cooler shows.
The Jan. 6 Committee Has Already Blown It David Brooks, NYT. “This is a movement, not a conspiracy. We don’t need a criminal-type investigation looking for planners or masterminds as much as we need historians and scholars and journalists to help us understand why the American Republican Party, like the Polish Law and Justice party, or the Turkish Justice and Development Party, has become a predatory semi-democratic faction.” Makes sense that Brooks would know the right to his right.
Democrats’ Jan. 6 fundraising spree Axios. Ka-ching. Readers, if any of you get a fund-raising email with a clip from the Committee’s “captivating multimedia presentation,” please forward it along to me. Thanks!
The rise of youth cage-fighting Washington Post (Re Silc).
The Outlaw Nuns Who Traded Their Convent for Cars, Cash and Castles Mel Magazine (Furzy Mouse).
Reflections of the elusive Jean Rhys New Statesman (AL).
Police State Watch
Chief executive Jozsef Varadi said staff should go “the extra mile” when tired so that the airline could avoid cancelling flights.
Pilot unions said flying when fatigued is dangerous and his comments showed a “deficient safety culture”.
But Wizz Air said Mr Varadi was addressing all workers not just pilots.
So that’s alright, then.
Antidote du jour (via):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.