Assessing recession probabilities The FRED Blog
A first-of-its-kind climate trial just ended — will it work? The Verge. Held v. Montana.
Young people are more likely to die of heart attacks post-COVID, study finds. But why? Today. ‘Tis a mystery!
A Big Leaguer Lost His Fastball but Not His Will to Compete NYT. Note lack of agency in “lost.” Due to Covid, naturally.
China calls West’s economic de-risking a ‘false proposition’ Channel News Asia
Local Chinese Governments Add Billions to Multitrillion-Dollar Hidden-Debt Problem Caixin Global. Commentary:
Ultimately they will have to liquidate assets to fund all of this, but until then they will borrow, explicitly when permitted and in hidden form when not, and will try to raise revenues, even if this undermines longer-term growth by penalizing local businesses and households.
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) June 27, 2023
Cattle, farmland short of water in northern China: Report Channel News Asia
Why a joke about the PLA has got China’s stand-up comics worried South China Morning Post
COVID wave looms in Japan after case numbers nearly double in a month Japan Times. So how are those smiling lessons workin’ out for ya?
Germany: Far-right AfD wins first governing post Deutsche Welle
The role of supply and demand in the post-pandemic recovery in the euro area European Central Bank
Dear Old Blighty
NHS trailing behind other major nations on life expectancy, study finds Sky News. Obviously, we need to bring in some American consulting firms and privatize everything.
Gibraltar: Britain’s Militarised Rock After Brexit Declassified UK
New Not-So-Cold War
Ukraine making ‘steady tactical progress’ in war: British defense chief Anadolu Agency. Modified rapture….
Nuclear Falseflag on Zaporozhye NPP Heats Up + Major Wagner Updates and More SImplicius the Thinker
Prigozhin’s plane arrives in Belarus Ukrainska Pravda. Commentary:
To show there are no hard feels, have asked Lukashenka to give Prigozhin an office with a view and a large window.
— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) June 25, 2023
Prigozhin’s Farce Is Over And It Is Clear Who Has Won Moon of Alabama
Inner workings of Wagner mercenary group revealed amid call to add organization to US terror list FOX. Timely report from the Soufan Center (“Founded in 2017 by former FBI special agent Ali Soufan….”)
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The Beginning of the End for Putin? Foreign Affairs
Putin’s weakness has been revealed. Here’s how Russia’s neighbors are reacting. Atlantic Council. One such neighbor:
10 minutes of Lukashenko mauling the BBC pic.twitter.com/6bILzQlsRR
— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) June 26, 2023
In any case, perhaps not:
1. Consolidation of power. Most of the Russian political class vocally lined up in support of Putin during the incident. Those who did not have doubtless been noted and can expect unusual but plausibly-deniable deaths in the near to medium term.
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) June 25, 2023
Not sure about “plausibly-deniable deaths” in the general case, even in the political class. Oligarchs, especially foreign oligarchs, would be another matter.
Russo-Ukrainian War: The Wagner Uprising Big Serge Thought
White House says ‘too soon to know’ impact of Wagner revolt in Russia Anadolu Agency. Channeling Chou En-LaI?
Washington Needs to Get Ready for Russian Chaos Foreign Policy
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Could Russia Deliver on its Threat to Cut Subsea Cables? Maritime Executive
Normalizing the Nazis:
Ukrainian Military Officials and Equipment using the “Balkenkreuz” or Iron Cross from the Imperial/Nazi Germany-Era is an extremely bad look and needs to be talked about more; I’m not sure why this is continued to be Allowed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, there should be… pic.twitter.com/4J6sgkQZpP
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 25, 2023
UN General Assembly discusses ‘Responsibility to Protect’ Anadolu Agency
Former Fed official and ex-SVB risk officer team up to launch bank FT. Seems legit.
Tech Startup Targets Missile Motors as Silicon Valley Moves Into Weapons WSJ. The deck: “Anduril’s purchase of a solid rocket engine maker marks a further pivot from software to military hardware.”
Abusive Men Describe the Benefits of Violence Voice Mail. From 2015, still germane.
Never mess with an arborist:
2/ guy propably thought he was going to just pay a $32k fine. But the arborist wrote violations to all 3 parties, 96 in all (by hand, took him 12 hours) and there's a provision requiring the replanting of like trees "of the same size." And it's on an inaccessible by road
— Create Alliances for Better and Prepare for Worse. (@SamAsIAm) June 26, 2023
Worth reading in full; karma acting in near-real time.
Antidote du jour (via):
Can you spot the Snow Leopard? pic.twitter.com/95l9FmN5oy
— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) June 25, 2023
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.