Yves here. The ruling Polish leadership is apparently worried that Musk will soon turn his attention to Poland’s upcoming May elections after he roughs up and perhaps even routs the already weak UK prime minister Kier Starmer. I know the spectacle of billionaires openly trying to influence nominally democratic processes is not a pretty picture. But after the US has engaged in decades of typically successful regime change operations, it is entertaining to see the howling when officials in colonialist regions of the world (as in Masters of the Universe wannabes or hangers-on) get a taste of the medicine they promoted, or at best ignored, in other parts of the world because it promoted their neoliberal agenda.
And of course none of these neoliberal governments had any problem with the huge rise in income and wealth inequality that really got traction after Reagan’s and Thatcher’s economic policies were embraced (or pushed) all over the world. And that system has produced a man so wealthy that he can try to and may succeed in toppling governments. Who’s have thunk it?
Readers who follow European affairs no doubt recall the current Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski for his response to the destruction of three of the four Nordstream 2 pipelines (he deleted the tweet but it still lives on Twitter):
So former foreign minister and now EU lawmaker Radosław Sikorski’s tweet thanking USA for blowing up NordStream was right? Good to know. pic.twitter.com/LcVWBCK1mk
— Mats Nilsson (@mazzenilsson) September 7, 2023
His wife is the rabidly anti-Russian commentator Anne Applebaum, so there are no doubts about where he stands on Russia.
Below Andrew Korybko discusses the possibility of Musk turning his attention to Poland, where in the last election, a liberal (as in firmly pro-EU and NATO) coalition replaced leadership by the “nationalist and conservative” Law and Justice (PiS) party, which among other things, campaigned in 2023 elections on taking a softer line on Russia. PiS Russia-hostile party garnered the most votes but the #2 winner, the Civic Coalition (PO), led by Donald Tusk, formed a government with other parties.
For more detail on Romania’s constitutional coup, see Conor’s post, Democracy Dies in the EU: Romania Edition.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
If Musk tries to stop Polish Liberals from capturing the presidency, they can either try to block this through scandalous legal moves that risk a national crisis, which could even ruin Poland’s relations with the US, or they can let everything unfold however it will.
Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski echoed French President Emmanuel Macron’s concerns that Elon Musk’s social media campaigns in support of the AfD opposition in Germany and against incumbent British Prime Minister Keir Starmer amount to meddling. He also called for Poland to pass new laws “so that it is the Polish people who choose our president, not foreigners”, which is ironic considering his friendshipwith George Soros’ son and heir Alex, whose father has meddled in Europe for decades.
It was assessed late last month that “Orban Hopes That Trump Will Help Polish Conservatives Return To Power”, ergo why he granted asylum to an opposition figure who alleged that he was being politically persecuted. In connection with that, readers were reminded shortly after Trump’s historic electoral victory that “Top Polish Politicians’ Irresponsible Past Statements About Trump Imperil Bilateral Ties” after Sikorski and his boss Donald Tusk’s rude remarks about the returning American leader resurfaced.
Trump is close friends with outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda, who’s a fellow conservative-nationalist that’s stayed in touch with him over the years, so it follows that he’d prefer for his party’s candidate Karol Nawrocki to succeed him as opposed to the liberal-globalist Rafal Trzaskowski. To that end, it’s predictable that Musk might try to stop the ruling liberals from capturing the presidency during May’s election, which could take the form of replicating his existing campaigns but with a Polish touch.
This might lead to him passionately advocating for the Law & Justice (PiS) opposition in parallel with haranguing against Tusk, Sikorski, and Trzaskowski. PiS’ role as one of the most pro-American parties in European history could be emphasized as could the ruling “Civic Platform’s” (PO) “wokeness” with regard to LGBT. Likewise, Musk might ignore PiS’ visas-for-bribes scandal that brought a quarter-million Africans and Asians to Europe the same as he might ignore PO’s robust border security policy.
The precedent created by Romania annulling the first round of its presidential election last month on the pretext that foreign social media support for the frontrunner discredited the results, which was later revealed to have actually been a botched campaign by his own opponents, could be applied to Poland too. The difference between Romania and Poland, however, is that the first’s constitutional coup had the Biden Administration’s backing while Trump definitely won’t back that same scenario in the second.
About that possibility, it was reported last month that Tusk’s government “will propose that, for next year’s Polish presidential election in May, the certification of the result should be handled by the labour law chamber of the Supreme Court and not, as ordained by existing electoral law, the supervisory chamber of the same court.” The larger context behind this proposal concerns Tusk and the EU’s long-running claims that PiS politicized the Supreme Court during its near-decade in power.
The aforementioned report elaborated that “The Polish Government, along with the European Commission and the European Court of Justice, have argued that the supervisory chamber was improperly constituted as its members were appointed by PiS ally President Andrzej Duda on recommendation of the National Judicial Council (KRS).” It’s beyond the scope of the present analysis to dive deeper into the details of this dispute but it’s enough for casual observers to simply be aware of it.
The significance is that Tusk’s government might unilaterally implement this proposal, subsequently annul the results of the first round if Nawrocki wins, reject any ruling against this by the Supreme Court or the allegedly “PiS-dominated Constitutional Tribunal”, and rely instead on the European Commission and the European Court of Justice to legitimize their constitutional coup. Any pushback from the Trump Administration could thus provoke a very serious political crisis with both Poland but also the EU.
If Trump decides to cross the Rubicon in this respect, then he could either threaten punishing tariffs against the EU as a whole, hint at targeted sanctions against Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists, and/or flirt with drastically curtailing the US’ military presence in Poland and possibly freezing major arms deals. The last-mentioned option is the most radical since it risks ruining the anti-Russian basis upon which the Polish-US Strategic Partnership is built but could still be employed to provoke nationalist protests.
Therein lies the other trick up Trump’s sleeve since he could task Musk with pulling a page from Soros’ playbook by using X to incite large-scale protests for maximally pressuring the ruling liberal-globalists at what would by then be another pivotal moment in Poland’s history. Moreover, the footage of any violent crackdown against these peaceful protesters could then virally circulate on X to incite even more protests, which could be paired with sanctions against those officials who are responsible for this.
Tusk would therefore do well to read the writing on the wall and let May’s vote play out however it will, accepting that it’s impossible to completely eliminate foreign influence in contemporary elections due to social media and not daring to exploit that as the pretext for annulling the vote if Nawrocki wins. It’s better to maintain the status quo of a conservative-nationalist in the presidency and liberal-globalists running parliament than to risk a national crisis that could also ruin relations with the US.
The only reason why Tusk wants Trzaskowski to capture the presidency is so that PiS no longer opposes PO’s plans to radically change Polish society. The worst that would thus happen if Nawrocki wins is that Tusk isn’t able to fully implement his legislative agenda, thus perpetuating the political stalemate of the past year till the next parliamentary elections in 2027, unless they’re called earlier. Trump will still be in office by then, however, so Musk might also “meddle” in that vote too with a wink and a nod from him.
In any case, as was just written, social media enables foreign figures and governments to influence elections in other countries. There’s no way to completely eliminate this factor either since the proliferation of VPNs neutralizes potential bans, ergo the importance of prioritizing “Pre-Bunking, Media Literacy, & Democratic Security” instead as argued in the preceding hyperlinked analysis from 2022. These are much more effective means since they aim to inoculate citizens from foreign influences.
Wrapping everything up, Sikorski’s comments about Musk’s social media campaigns in Germany and the UK suggest that Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists are panicking since they fear that he’ll soon turn his attention to their country in order to stop them from capturing the presidency during May’s election. They can accordingly either try to stop this through scandalous legal moves that risk a national crisis, which could even ruin Poland’s relations with the US, or they can let everything unfold however it will.
A billionaire trolling on social media can influence election outcomes? Maybe in the US but as far away as Germany, Poland, UK? Is he putting his money into these right wing parties alongside his incessant darting of ruling EU politicians with his trolling? It was Dave Chappelle who said “twitter is not real life” to caution against the tendency to use the prevailing opinion of the social media hivemind as proxy for real life public opinion. If a rich guy tweeting from his private jet can turn whole countries’ elections into pet projects and have politicians scrambling to insulate their electoral systems from meddling then liberal democracy’s decay function is in a terminal phase. Soros had boots (aka agitators) on the ground organizing marches and protests and hired guns in newsrooms providing media cover for his colour revolutions, Musk, to my understanding, is just tweeting. One must conclude that the digitization of regime change is in full swing.
IMO it’s more like the Western regimes are losing legitimacy fast and so they are turning to totalitarian measures like banning any criticism of them, because the only explanation for their unpopularity they can accept is that dumb proles are manipulated by foreign enemies, even if said manipulation is some random troll tweet that goes viral because they themselves amplify it via Streisand effect.
Soros was simply a wrapper on State Department funding – it was not his money. He was an NGO funded by US taxpayers.
Musk is a man wanting to make a mark. He knows his businesses are essentially extensions of Government. Like Bezos he gets DoD dollars but Musk also gets Carbon Credits as major income source from ICE producers.
He probably feels his screwed-up family life will not produce the heir and is looking for other paths to posterity
The twiXt from visegrad 24 above is a reminder that the Polish government (in its various avatars of rabid nationalist and less-rabid nationalist) is the Dick Cheney and / or Hillary Clinton of Europe, wrong about everything.
No. No. No. No.
The visegrad24 site itself is part of the swamp of U.S. propaganda outlets: “Powered by the Intermarium Foundation, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, we rely on your support to continue uncovering the stories that matter.”
Oh.
Meanwhile, I see nothing in this article to back this assertion: “The only reason why Tusk wants Trzaskowski to capture the presidency is so that PiS no longer opposes PO’s plans to radically change Polish society.”
From what I see, the current mazurka is just the usual daft Polish elites trying to screw each other over, feed their arrogant nationalism, settle scores across Europe, and shellack it all by waving some rosaries — in short, Poland as governed for the last hundred years or so.
Two hundred plus years. Poles furnished hundred thousand men to the Grande Armee invading Russia, more than any country other than France itself. Poles invaded Spain and France, all for Freedom(tm).
https://www.marxists.org/archive/tolstoy/1869/war-and-peace/book-9-chapter-2.html
1865 – 1869
War and Peace
By Leo Tolstoy
1812
On the twenty-ninth of May Napoleon left Dresden, where he had spent three weeks surrounded by a court that included princes, dukes, kings, and even an emperor. Before leaving, Napoleon showed favor to the emperor, kings, and princes who had deserved it, reprimanded the kings and princes with whom he was dissatisfied, presented pearls and diamonds of his own— that is, which he had taken from other kings— to the Empress of Austria, and having, as his historian tells us, tenderly embraced the Empress Marie Louise— who regarded him as her husband, though he had left another wife in Paris— left her grieved by the parting which she seemed hardly able to bear. Though the diplomatists still firmly believed in the possibility of peace and worked zealously to that end, and though the Emperor Napoleon himself wrote a letter to Alexander, calling him Monsieur mon frere, and sincerely assured him that he did not want war and would always love and honor him— yet he set off to join his army, and at every station gave fresh orders to accelerate the movement of his troops from west to east. He went in a traveling coach with six horses, surrounded by pages, aides-de-camp, and an escort, along the road to Posen, Thorn, Danzig, and Konigsberg. At each of these towns thousands of people met him with excitement and enthusiasm….
“Now we’ll go into action. Oh, when he takes it in hand himself, things get hot… by heaven!… There he is!… Vive l’Empereur! So these are the steppes of Asia! It’s a nasty country all the same. Au revoir, Beauche; I’ll keep the best palace in Moscow for you! Au revoir. Good luck!… Did you see the Emperor? Vive l’Empereur!… preur!— If they make me Governor of India, Gerard, I’ll make you Minister of Kashmir— that’s settled. Vive l’Empereur! Hurrah! hurrah! hurrah! The Cossacks— those rascals— see how they run! Vive l’Empereur! There he is, do you see him? I’ve seen him twice, as I see you now. The little corporal… I saw him give the cross to one of the veterans…. Vive l’Empereur!” came the voices of men, old and young, of most diverse characters and social positions. On the faces of all was one common expression of joy at the commencement of the long-expected campaign and of rapture and devotion to the man in the gray coat who was standing on the hill.
On the thirteenth of June a rather small, thoroughbred Arab horse was brought to Napoleon. He mounted it and rode at a gallop to one of the bridges over the Niemen, deafened continually by incessant and rapturous acclamations which he evidently endured only because it was impossible to forbid the soldiers to express their love of him by such shouting, but the shouting which accompanied him everywhere disturbed him and distracted him from the military cares that had occupied him from the time he joined the army. He rode across one of the swaying pontoon bridges to the farther side, turned sharply to the left, and galloped in the direction of Kovno, preceded by enraptured, mounted chasseurs of the Guard who, breathless with delight, galloped ahead to clear a path for him through the troops. On reaching the broad river Viliya, he stopped near a regiment of Polish Uhlans stationed by the river.
“Vivat!” shouted the Poles, ecstatically, breaking their ranks and pressing against one another to see him.
Napoleon looked up and down the river, dismounted, and sat down on a log that lay on the bank. At a mute sign from him, a telescope was handed him which he rested on the back of a happy page who had run up to him, and he gazed at the opposite bank. Then he became absorbed in a map laid out on the logs. Without lifting his head he said something, and two of his aides-de-camp galloped off to the Polish Uhlans.
“What? What did he say?” was heard in the ranks of the Polish Uhlans when one of the aides-de-camp rode up to them.
The order was to find a ford and to cross the river. The colonel of the Polish Uhlans, a handsome old man, flushed and, fumbling in his speech from excitement, asked the aide-de-camp whether he would be permitted to swim the river with his Uhlans instead of seeking a ford. In evident fear of refusal, like a boy asking for permission to get on a horse, he begged to be allowed to swim across the river before the Emperor’s eyes. The aide-de-camp replied that probably the Emperor would not be displeased at this excess of zeal.
As soon as the aide-de-camp had said this, the old mustached officer, with happy face and sparkling eyes, raised his saber, shouted “Vivat!” and, commanding the Uhlans to follow him, spurred his horse and galloped into the river…
Quos vult perdere dementat. *
* Those whom (God) wishes to destroy he drives mad.
As always, the truth is the first victim of war. Two versions of the Niemen crossing incident by the Polish uhlans as reported by the eyewitnesses (based on the dissertation by the American historian Richard Vollmer). Count Tolstoy had been born in 1828, long after the events he described. According to Vollmer:
“Méneval recalls still a third version of what is probably the same story. After describing Napoleon’s crossing of the Niemen he says: I will now speak of an incident which happened to a Polish squadron, and which occurred whilst crossing a small river.
I do so because the losses which it is alleged were suffered by these squadrons have been stated with a great deal of exaggeration. The bridge having broken down, the Poles bravely swam across the river – which was swollen by the rain. Their loss amounted to one light cavalryman. Marbot tells this story in almost the same words as Méneval: Beyond Kovno flows a small stream called the Wilia, the bridge over which had been cut by the enemy; and the storm having swollen it, Oudinot’s leading scouts were stopped. The Emperor Napoleon came up just as I reached the spot with my regiment. He ordered the Polish lancers to sound the ford, and one man was drowned. If I emphasize this detail, it is because the accident to the Polish lancer at the passage of the Wilia has been vastly exaggerated.”
Eight hundred plus years. Eastern Europe has a regular cycle:
– Poland unites
– Poland grows confident
– Poland goes berzerk, pounces on its neighbors
– Poland is crushed
– Pieces of what was Poland are put under adult management
– After time, the pieces are assumed capable of civilized behavior, and are let loose
– Poland unites
and so on, round and round.
As a neighbor of both, Russians (however much I prefer they let us alone) don’t worry me. Poles do.
Seems like Germans and Poles got their cycles synchronized, and are itching to be carved up together. Oprah would say: “You get a Balkanization! You get a Balkanization! Everybody gets a Balkanization!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcfSi0I_Lko
One third German territory disappeared into Poland in 1945 with the town of Görlitz being cut in half. Poles from Eastern Poland were re-settled in formerly German areas of what is now Western Poland with Berlin just 60km from the Polish frontier.
The fact is that GDR is still a political entity and defined by hostility to Greens and SPD is a clear fracture in modern Germany which seems increasingly a false construct.
Germany commits suicide every 40 years and even the Constitution speaks of Germany if 1937 borders with respect to Citizenship
“the current mazurka is just the usual daft Polish elites trying to screw each other over, feed their arrogant nationalism, settle scores across Europe, and shellack it all by waving some rosaries — in short, Poland as governed for the last hundred years or so.”
This is simultaneously evergreen and gold …
is the meaning of the name KEIR…..
Radoslaw Sikorski is a very strange man. As a Pole from Communist Poland he was able to go to Oxford in 1981University, not only that but he was accepted as a Member of The Bullingdon Club and associated with David Cameron and Boris Johnson, David Dimbleby, Nathaniel Rothschild, George Osborne, Jo Johnson (brother of Alex Boris), Rupert Soames, Darius Guppy, etc
He acquired British Citizenship in 1987 and renounced it in 2006