Yves here. Your humble blogger is typically sparing about featuring YouTube interviews as posts. However, this Rachel Bevin interview with Lebonon-based Laith Marouf, host of Free Palestine TV, gives a good overview of the initial Iranian failure to anticipate the Israeli attack, the pacing and focus of Iranian strikes on Israel, and what Iran’s targeting priorities are likely to be when the US formally enters the fray (Marouf is dismissive of the idea that the US is not already deeply involved).
This account is from 18 hours ago, and so reasonably current. It contains some on-the-ground details that I have not heard elsewhere, such as that as a result of Iranian damage to Israel’s electricity generation, Jordan and Egypt provided additional power. Marouf clearly is on the Axis of Resistance side, but I don’t think it’s hard to parse that out from his recap.
The transcript is machine generated. I cleaned it up but please forgive any errors or omissions.
By Rachel Blevins. Originally published at her channel
Blevins: It is June 16th 2025 and Israel and Iran continue to trade strikes for a fourth day. As you have Israel coming out and claiming that it has air superiority over Iran, I would argue that Israel has superiority over the media coverage here in the US because they are certainly spinning it any way they want to talking about regime change in Iran and all of these things that they’re going to do.
But what is Iran going to do? Because that is the question that we are now starting to see the answer to as they continue to respond with strikes on Israel as we continue to see damage reported in Israel, as we continue to see casualties reported on both sides. And as you have these reports of course that the US is getting ready and making moves to directly enter this war, instead of just the support that they’ve had for Israel this entire time. So what could that mean for where tensions are headed?
Well we got into all of the latest with a special guest earlier so let’s take a listen to that conversation. Now joining me now to discuss is Leith Marouf a Palestinian Syrian journalist and host
of Free Palestine TV based in Lebanon. Leith, thanks so much for taking the time to join me
Marouf: Great to be with you Rachel.
Blevins: Now I want to get your take on the latest here as Israel and really now the US are engaged in an all-out war against Iran as Israel and Iran continue to trade strikes for a fourth day. We’re seeing casualties reported on both sides. But now Israel is claiming that it has destroyed more than 100 surface-to-surface missile launchers in central Iran and therefore achieved air superiority over
Iran.
What do you make of this claim? Is this about Israel trying to almost kind of tell the media to look over here to distract from the damage that Iran has been able to carry out in Israel?
Marouf: Yeah iI mean from day one part of the Israeli/American attack has been this psychological warfare. If people remember, within the first hours of the beginnings of the attacks on Iran the American leadership was telling the Ayatollah to just surrender, that we killed everyone around you just give up now. And we’ve heard this claim of full control of the airspace over Iran by the Zionists repeated over and over.
But the what we know now from the reality and the truth on the ground in Iran is that the vast majority of attacks, over 80 somewhat percent of the attacks that are happening, are being conducted by infiltration and spies that have been planted on the ground, Over the last 24 hours, the Iranian television have showed at least three factories of drones and hideouts of uh these infiltrators that include ATGMs.
And this is what has been really happening: all the attacks that we see inside Tehran and the deeper cities that are not on the border with Iraq have been conducted by these ATGM attacks including the assassinations on the first night. It was somebody with a a shoulder-mounted ATGM firing within the neighborhood on the buildings where these generals and scientists were sleeping with their families. This is why Iran wasn’t expecting.
I know a lot of people are wondering why these assassinations happened, why were these people not hidden somewhere. Because they were in Tehran they were not on the border, there’s no way for Israel to assassinate them through an air strike as it did in Lebanon. And now we have even proof that the assassination of Haniyeg inside, the leader of Hamas, a year ago was actually conducted again by one of these attacks from somebody on the ground.
So Iran has managed to capture all these infiltration, majority of them squads and captured most of their assets and weapons and this is accelerating.
So the first minutes of shock that we saw and the maneuverability of Israel on the ground in Iran is now becoming very limited. And given that their air strikes are happening from Iraqi airspace with these Golden Horizon missiles ballistic missiles fired from a jet. They have a very short limit of where they can hit inside Iran.
Then this is why the US is having to enter the battle now because all of that propaganda and fantasy of that the chosen people have the ability to hit you anywhere they want to has now been debunked.
Blevins: Yeah and I think that that’s a great point. And it’s also interesting to see that psychological warfare right, this idea that Iran is having to fight this dual war of you can’t trust anyone in your country or anyone outside of your country.
And it has been notable I know that there’s been a lot of footage on social media showing the destruction that we’ve seen in Israel from Iranian attacks. I guess suddenly the Israelis.
But how do you view the damage that Iran has been able to inflict so far and kind of what that tells us about their broader capabilities but also what Israel is doing?
Marouf: On its end yeah, the Iranian strategy up until now has been to escalate in stages and to deplete the uh resources that Israel has. So what we saw on the first day for instance, first night the Iranians used a couple hundred old ballistic missiles that forced the air defenses of the whole West combined, that is stationed in the region, as well as the Israeli air defenses to reveal themselves.
And so we had that wave of slow drones that forced every radar and every battery of air defense to activate and with them those hyper sonic ballistic missiles and that painted everything in red. basically all the targets and we saw the first night just maybe around five hypersonic missiles hit very important air defense batteries and radars in this pathway. And then the second night we saw an increase of the number of hypersonic missiles and while the you know increase also in the waves of drones and ballistic missiles. That again forced the activation of more important assets that they, the whole West had in the path of these drones and missiles. And that led to the vast destruction of all of the air defenses that the Israelis rolled from the Golan Heights all the way to Tel Aviv. A highway was opened.
And this is why by the end of the night, by the third wave of missiles last night, there was practically nothing to stop the missiles that are coming and we saw the destruction of the majority of the port of Haifa, the electric plant just north of Haifa also. The Israelis have only two electricity plants in the whole country, and the major transformers in Hayra [sp?] in the north of Palestine that distribute electricity to the Golan Heights in the north of Palestine.
So last night since last night, the Israelis lost half of their capability of electricity generation. They’ve had to activate the electricity plant south of Tel Aviv on 24 hours and the Jordanians and the Egyptians, the treacherous regimes of Jordan and Egypt, increased their electricity pumping into the grid inside the Zionist colony, cutting electricity from their own population. You know so now there’s electricity, you know blackouts, in both Egypt and Jordan just to keep the Israelis in under, you know, light.
And so tonight we should expect that the other electricity plant that the Israelis have and the high transforming transformer lines that come from Jordan and Egypt to be hit.
And look I think right now already the the Zionists are defeated in their battle with Iran and this is why we see a rush of American air fuelers coming with waves of NATO jets to the region. We saw since last night 25 air refuelers from fly out from the US towards the region. These are the ones that we see their transponders turned on so the we will find ourselves in a direct American, Western attack on Iran momentarily.
And I think the the biggest fear right now that the Israelis have is the possibility of infiltration from uh other forces. I know everybody watched those videos in Tel Aviv and Haifa and the mass destruction. But more than 60% of Iran’s attacks last night were on Israeli bases on the border with Lebanon and in the Golan Heights. And uh people in South Lebanon around 20 kilometers, you know 15 miles away from the border, their homes were shaking and they could see the explosions on the border.
So right now uh you know the Israelis have to worry about more than just Iran’s missiles their whole frontline defenses in the Golan Heights and South Lebanon, Palestine are very vulnerable right now
Blevins: Wow that is that’s really interesting. And I’m glad that you bring that up because that’s another thing that I was thinking about: the fact that you know Israel has been in this position, has carried out, it has really implemented this regional war.
Marouf: Right it’s carried out genocide against the Palestinians. It has been bombing Lebanon. And all of that has kind of been this glass house that has stood for so long but then they’ve gone to Iran. And they’ve said “Okay we want direct war.”
And Iran is like “Okay well we can target you here here and here.” And guess what, we still have this overall Axis of Resistance that can target you from all of these different areas right around your border. And this is the fight that you pick.
Blevins: And now when it comes to the reports that we’re seeing that Iran is keeping its most modern ballistic missiles for a wider war. Is that about the US potentially getting involved and some of these other, you know, American, British, French bases in the region that Iran could be targeting. How do you see kind of the position that Iran is in right now? And how it’s choosing to escalate based on how Israel and the West respond ?
Marouf: You know, I watched a few interviews of the new command within the Iranian military on Iranian television and a few things that we should note from what they said. One is that they already knew that the United States is trying to fool them during these negotiations and that the attack was going to happen. What they didn’t realize is that there’s those infiltration squads on the ground, that they’re going to commit those assassinations they and that’s a mistake on their behalf. But they knew that this is what’s going to happen, that they were going to go to war with the Zionist colony
And also these same generals in these interviews said that they already know that they are going to go to war against the United States and the whole might of NATO from that moment and that they are thus uh preparing for this long war. And part of this ability to have this long war with the West is making sure that not all of your assets are exposed from day one. You know, they could have thrown a couple of 10,000 missiles all at the same time on the Zionist colony and blasted it from the first day. But that would have mean that all their, you know, warehouses and their hideouts and, you know, launchers would have been exposed for the Americans to target them
So what we will see is once the Americans openly attack Iran, because by the way in my opinion the Americans and the West are already attacking Iran. Israel only has 250 jets. They cannot be conducting all those bombardments on Iran on Syria on Lebanon on Gaza and Yemen all at the same time. They’re not, they’re not, they don’t have the hand of God with them although we were supposed to believe that. Right. So they’re already involved, the Americans in the West but they’re going to now have to openly say that they’re involved as the Zionists are totally destroyed and unable to even lie about their involvement in attacks on Iran.
And once that happens I think the Iranians will first and foremost attack all the airfields in the region. They will not be attacking American bases at the first stage. And they will be attacking all the, you know, refineries for jet fuel and the holding facilities for jet fuel in the region. We saw the the Iranians do that on the first day in Israel by the way, sorry the second night, on the second night uh before the destruction of the Haifa port.
Yesterday on the second night. the Iranians destroyed the refinery that specialized in jet fuel in the Haifa port and the facilities all across the colony of distribution and storage of jet fuel.
Okay so that gives us an indication of what the Iranians are going to do in their first stage of responding to any direct Western attack on it.
And thus I would say the the airfields in Cyprus that the British have in their occupied territories inside Cyprus there’s two parts of Cypress that are occupied by the Brits and where the majority of the command and control of the air operations right now is happening from there. Those will be the first airfields and jet fuel storage locations that will be attacked
And then uh if that the US dares to uh openly fly out of airfields in Qatar or Saudi or Bahraib or the Emirates, then they will be attacked also. And that’s going to drag us of course into a full oil crisis in the world even before attacking the oil fields uh of the Gulf.
Blevins: Yeah that is something that I would think that those kingdoms that have been very supportive of the US and of genocide have that they should be keeping in mind as they’re watching this play out.
And I’m also curious too when it comes to the political element here because I know that when I talked to you just a couple of weeks ago we were talking here about the Knesset being on the verge of being dissolved altogether right netanyahu being in political trouble. And one thing about Netanyahu anytime he gets into any kind of political trouble he’s like “All right what war can I start?” And here we are with war on Iran and kind of what you were talking about earlier with you know
Israel’s electricity being impacted.
I know that there are reports out there saying that Israelis are being forced to stay and that they are going to be forced to stay, now being used as human shields, ironically. How do you view the position that Israel is in and kind of how long they are going to be able to stand with everything that is happening really the consequences of their actions starting to come back home?
Marouf: Yeah I’m glad you brought that up the Haaretz newspaper is saying the Israeli authorities have banned any airlines from carrying, allowing Israelis on board to depart under any reason. So we saw a rush of 2 million Israelis trying to buy tickets to leave. And that’s why the Zionist authorities are freaking out. They already have lost like a million and a half settlers over the last two years that ran away to the West and another two million would mean more than 50% have left and there’s no more state at that point. And so right now we see a rush of these colonists to the ferries that take people to Cyprus so there’s all booked ferries. There’s a rush to the borders with Jordan and Egypt and the treacherous Jordanian and Egyptian regime are helping these Zionists leave. I mean, I would like them to leave I’m happy.
But obviously those two regimes never cared for the Palestinians and in fact the Jordanian regime who took a few hundred uh Palestinian children from Gaza for medical treatment returned them to their death in Gaza after right and nobody talks about that. Those same supposedly, you know children that that Jordan prided itself about saving and helping in medical terms are dead now because the Jordanian regime returned them to the death camp.
So, you know the the exit of the Zionists is happening um there is in all practical uh sense no more Zionist colony. The collapse that we were talking about in our last interview in terms of their political cohesion has happened. Netanyahu isn’t you know just using this to distract. He had no choice. This was the strategy from the beginning October 7th. There was a rag tag militia of 2,000
fighters that defeated the Israeli military that captured 12 Israeli bases and killed or captured 12 Israeli generals.
The Americans had to send generals to the command and control to actually run the war from day one. The Israeli ground forces are a bunch of pedophiles and transvestites that like to put on women’s underwear. Okay and they were defeated in Gaza since then they haven’t been able to win this war against this ragtag militia.
They were defeated in Lebanon they were not able to enter one Lebanese village without the ceasefire. They were defeated as the whole the United States by Yemen. And now they’re going they have no choice because of if they stop at any moment this defeat becomes a reality. They have no choice but to escalate, to try to win something okay.
And now as we see the whole uh you know mythology of air superiority of the Zionist is being popped up as the balloon. We’re at this moment that if the United States doesn’t come to save this Zionist colony from full collapse, they, the United States itself, will start losing its prestige as a military power. And this is why the US is risking everything and the whole West is risking everything on the golden calf of Zionism.
One last thing I would say here on this point is that up until now Iran didn’t target the water infrastructure. And the Israelis were stupid enough to attack one of the main water pipelines into Tehran last night or stupid enough because in the Zionist colony close to 90% of the people live in the area between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. And this area is not fed by water from the aquifers of
the West Bank or the water of the Jordan River . It’s fed by eight desalination plants on the Mediterranean. And if those disselination plants are hit, even just half of them are out of service, they Zionist colonists will go thirsty immediately. There’s no there’s no other water source for them.
And this is I think what we will be seeing in the next 24 hour: attacks on the water infrastructure that feeds the colony
Blevins: Yeah and it’ll be interesting to see. I’m curious what the US is going to do and how it’s going to really well I say get involved they’re already involved right as we were noting earlier everything that Israel is doing and has done in this ongoing genocide in this regional war it’s made possible by the US and we’ve watched as President Trump has
kind of gone back and forth right on one hand he claims that oh yeah Israel used the weapons that were provided by the US And then on the other hand he’s like “We didn’t have anything to do in with tonight’s attacks.”
Talking about what transpired on Saturday night and so on and so forth the last thing I want to bring up. Is just kind of how far the US is willing to go because I know that that the think tanks in Washington DC have wanted war against Iran for a while.
Now right they have wanted an allout war that is going to weaken Iran. But as they’re seeing Iran’s response as they’re as we’re seeing the fact that it didn’t just crumble after the string of
assassinations and say “Okay we’ll agree to whatever nuclear deal that Trump is throwing at us.”
How do you see the position that the US is in and kind of how far it’s willing to go because Israel the Zionists seem to be willing to go to the bitter end for this war?
Malouf: Yeah I think it’s starting to make sense more to me the strategy of the Axis of Resistance of not going all in on October 7th. For one reason is that I think the Axis of Resistance leadership understood that this is an existential war in the sense of not only the colony but of western hegemony and that the Western elite will hinge everything. They have to make sure that the Zionist colony is not defeated.
Thus if the response of the Axis of Resistance was coordinated simultaneous attack on October 8th to glass the Zionist colony we would have have a nuclear response immediately from the United States and the West and we would already be living a nuclear holocaust and a nuclear winter all of us as humanity.
So at a great sacrifice in blood the Axis of Resistance slowed the development of this war in order to saturate the Western populace in real knowledge of what things are happening in order to give a breather for people between the stages of this war, for the populations to start moving against the craziness of their elite in the West. And maybe maybe just maybe that the elite in the West will uh you know back down from the edge of the abyss. Okay and this is where we at you know so you know we’re at the last stages here and I think uh the there is nobody anywhere in the Western uh domains that actually believes the lies that they are hearing from the Zionists and the elite in the west and the vast majority of the population in the West overwhelmingly is anti-Zionist now.
And that’s all because of this strategy and as we see the pressure is building so heavily inside western societies that we got to a point of armed resistance like that assassination of the two Israeli embassy officials by Elias Rodriguez in Washington DC. Those are indicators of, you know, pent up right now the feelings are in the populace in the West.
And that’s the United States which is a country that doesn’t have many Muslims or Arabs uh like France or Europe for instance. So we can understand that if the West right now takes takes us to this war which it will happen, I expect uh violent resistance to rise inside Western societies. It’s not what I want but this is what’s going to happen. And that is wouldn’t have happened if Iran and the Axis of resistance went all in uh two years ago 20 months ago.
And so there is still a chance for us to uh return from the abyss. And that is now dependent on how serious the populace in the West are to make sure that their elite follow their will.
Otherwise once this war rolls out and if the West either nukes Iran and or bombs a nuclear reactor in Iran that results in nuclear fallout, within minutes Pakistan which will be the biggest victim of this nuclear fallout, this has a very thin country that’s right on the border of Iran, they and there as the Pakistani military promised will retaliate with a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv. If there is nuclear fallout that falls on China we should be expecting China to also move accordingly
This is not a joke anymore right so even if there’s a Pakistan is a country that’s captured by the West and the Saudi money those Pakistani generals have children and they’re going to die from nuclear poisoning okay so there is a limit to how much they’ll collaborate okay. And that’s why we’re seeing Pakistan take this position and the fact that Pakistan is the only nuclear Muslim country they know that they’re on the cutting board right after Iran if Iran falls. Even if they kiss the feet of Zionist they will be attacked. Right now anyone that wants to avoid a nuclear holocaust in the West, they have a very short window to move, take serious action to stop their governments from dragging us into a nuclear holocaust.
Blevins: Yeah there is certainly a lot at stake here. I think that that is an understatement at this point.And I really appreciate you taking the time to join me today to really educate the audience on where things stand with all of these moving parts. Here Laith Marouf, a Palestinian Syrian journalist and host of Free Palestine TV. Thank you so much for your time and insight.
Morouf: Good to be with you Rachel see you soon
Blevins: If anything in this video resonated with you, be sure to like it share it with your friends. Leave a comment and as always don’t forget to subscribe. and if you want to keep up with all of my work, make sure that you’re subscribed to my page on Substack that’s rachelblvens.substack.com. That’s where you’ll find ad-free videos and new weekly episodes of my exclusive series for paid subscribers called Sanctioned. You can also check out Sanctioned over on my page on Patreon that’s patreon.com/rachelblvens
As always thank you all so much for all of your support and I’ll see you next time.
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This is quite an interesting interview. Historians will have a field day trying to work how Israel, being badly stretched in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria, thought it a great idea to take on Iran. I guess that they thought that this was their best chance to establish Greater Israel and Iran needed to be destroyed to secure it. Marouf does bring up many, many interesting points. Like if the British get involved then maybe Iran will lob a few missiles at their major base in Cyprus but do they have missiles with that range?
I would say the US/UK have wanted regime change in Iran since 1980. The democratically-elected Mohamed Mossadegh govt. was overthrown by UK and US in 1953 and the infamous Pahlavi regime re-installed. After Shah Reza Pahlavi was overthrown, Iran became the focus of regime change.
From what little I know, the US, and UK have already aided Israel with intelligence, logistics, and even intercepting Iranian missiles. Israel acts as a proxy state for the empire. Or a neo-crusader state if you will.
Iran has been on the receiving side of regime change by Western powers for more than a century…
Very true, the Mossadegh case is the most recent, most flagrant demonstration of hypocrisy and foreign meddling. Iran is a key piece of the Grand Chessboard, has huge amounts of oil/gas etc. The Great Game is afoot, so to speak, but this time much more dangerous.
Yes, but at least in 1905-1911 the Americans were on the Iranian side.
Any oil/resource rich NON-COMPLIANT nation has been on the receiving end of regime change for about the last century.
I’m convinced the UK elite have it out for Russia because the Bolsheviks killed the Tzar who was the cousin of the King of England. How dare they take away their “royal” rights to Russian resources!
Predates the Bolshiviks.
Goes back to Mackander and the necessity of an oceanic empire preventing the potential of a monolithic land empire on the Eurasian supercontinent.
I expect if we ever see records from the Bank of England from the term of Montague Norman (1920 to 1944) we’ll find clandestine backing for Lenin and the Bolsheviks (pdf warning: see Preparata)
Yes, but it’s: “The Right Honourable Sir Halford Mackinder”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halford_Mackinder
It is interesting to revisit him (as well as one of his biggest fans, Zbig B.)
History rhymes
Heh. From the Wiki –
‘…Mackinder’s last major work was the 1943 article, “The Round World and the Winning of the Peace”, in which he envisioned a post-war world. He reiterated and expanded his Heartland view of the world, suggesting that the Atlantic Ocean would be jumped, with North America’s influence pulled into the region by its use of Britain as a “moated aerodrome”. Elsewhere in the world, beyond the “girdle of deserts and wilderness”, and the “Great Ocean” region of the Indo-Pacific Rim, was the “Monsoon lands” area of India and China that would grow in power.’
He wasn’t wrong about that.
It’s tragic how many non-renewable resources are being spent on attempts to control other non-renewable resources.
Imagine how long sane humans could have stretched them.
I agree, but if the current “not-sane” humans weren’t in charge and more peace-oriented ones were running things, it’s most likely that they would be exploiting the non-renewables in other long-term-unsustainable ways, for example to “grow” the world-wide economy in ways that do not promote long-term human flourishing.
The “egalitarian, abundant” quadrant of Peter Frase’s ‘Four Futures’ is arguably the least likely.
Patrick Armstrong makes the case of it going way back-
https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2025/05/20/anti-russia-through-the-years/
Well, if you’ve ever heard some of the Israeli leadership speak, you’d know they’re messianic in their delusion; many are simply insane. This goes for most Jewish citizens there too. To the larger point: ultimately, the US is sacrificing its proxy Israel. Like in Ukraine, but things are more complex in the US/Israel relationship of course. I suspect a lot of US citizens (yes, I’m being optimistic) are going to be very angry when US soldiers start getting wiped out for Israel. That will be the perception. It’s really hard to know, however, what kind of crazy shit will happen in the near-term. A very, very bad situation.
It won’t just be citizens angry over US soldier deaths. Years ago when I would go to Pat Lang’s website (Green Beret colonel, ex-DIA) to get his take on the Syrian conflict I was impressed by how pissed off he and other current and ex-military were over Israeli influence on US foreign policy. That was on steady simmer, and if someone would bring up the attack on the USS Liberty during the ’67 war there’d be a boil over.
In one of the links today Wilkerson was speculating about whether the weekend parade was a gauging of military support for a coup. Dunno, but Trump getting dogwalked by Bibi into Mideast fighting will not help with that project
Eschatological garrison state. Garrison for the US in Middle East basically.
“Historians will have a field day trying to work how Israel, being badly stretched in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria, thought it a great idea to take on Iran.”
More like they think it’s a great idea for the USA and other associates to take on Iran.
But then one has to ask why the US is playing along… Bibi thinks it’s cuz we like him…
Epstein
I think it’s pretty likely, though Trump *claimed* that the usa was uninvolved, the reality is the usa is 100% involved in everything that Israel does. Supplies nearly all the weapons etc, no doubt both counties share loads more, intelligence, dark ops. They share oligarch donors for political campaigns. That will become more and more overt as this war expands and progresses.
As I see it, if the war does not go nuclear soon, one big question is how much more involved will the EU and NATO get in defending the rogue genocidal actions of the usa/Isreal? Will Russia, China, possibly Pakistan assist in defending Iran?
If WW3 does not break out by end of July, how many years (or months) until it does break out? The usa dems are just like the Europeans, totally captured by the oligarchs, and all western neoliberal countries are going authoritarian with an end to free elections, free speech etc.
We’ve heard for a while how vulnerable israel is, limited air defense/critical electric gen & desalination plants etc. glass house indeed. I guess it must be belief that god won’t let the zionists lose dominates their thinking, no matter that god apparently did let the Roman’s kick them out a couple millennia ago.
I wonder if/when Hezbollah/houthis decide to join in.
Not seeing much detail in msm, certainly hadn’t heard Israelis not allowed to board planes.
Might see how effective west is vs Iranian (russ?) air defenses pretty soon.
Imo if refineries/storage are taken out we might see gasoline/ diesel as well as jet fuel being rationed. Supply chain problems might get pretty bad.
I assume Traffic thru Hormuz would stop without a shot being fired if Iran said they’d sink any tanker that tried it.
for all their piety and over the top chosen ones rhetoric, its as if ben gvir and his ilk havent read through the whole torah, etc…i mean, there’s lots of instances where the habiru got too big for their britches and YVWH took them out, sometimes directly, mostly using a proxy(egypt,persia, rome).
considering calling senator cornyn, for whateverthehell good it will do.
and, for Yves, and whomever manages the hamster wheels, NC went down for me when i attempted to post the above comment.
it may have been something i was doing(downloading this video)…jbut i could reload everything from X to cnn to the NWS..(ive got a window with about 50 x-tabs open, too,lol)
just fyi.
Will Pakistan Drop A Nuclear Bomb on Israel to Help Iran?
The internet is currently full of claims that Pakistan will nuke Israel if Tel Aviv drops a nuclear bomb on Iran.
The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) has made no such statement that the Armed Forces of Pakistan would nuke the occupying state.
https://propakistani.pk/2025/06/15/will-pakistan-drop-a-nuclear-bomb-on-israel-to-help-iran/
Reassuring, I suppose. Hope they don’t change their minds.
And simulating the impact of a US nuclear strike against Iran. Let’s hope this is all bluster.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nuclear-bomb-map-shows-impact-of-us-weapons-on-iran/ar-AA1GT0Wj?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=acbb7bfa78574c07b85d025de0cbda2a&ei=77
Pure insanity. Hiroshima times fifty.
Will Kim offer a few missiles.
i wouldnt be surprised if kim, or any of a number of others, havent already shipped a couple of nukes to iran, just in case…and maybe long ago(easy to see this coming, after all…for more than 20 years).
been a long time since i read the relevant fatwa, but i think i remember it saying that “developing” was Haram…not necessarily “possesing, just in case”.
and, im sending this vid to the boys.
And this is how it all began: See On the Beach, 1959
Wow. Marouf is clearly (and understandably) emotionally vested in what is going on. I’m wondering how that might affect the quality of his analysis.
As a supporter of the Palestinians and an opponent of US support for Israel I swallowed a lot of podcast-borne hopium about the battle between Hezbollah and Israel. This time around I am more wary. There is much that is not known and there is much that is twisted.
Speaking of the latter, someone had NBC news on last night and I saw a snippet of an interview between the anchor and two defence analysts. The obvious bias and ill-will was worse than what we saw in the lead up to the Iraq invasion. Things do not look good.
I would parse out his comments on the attacks and counter-attacks over these opening days and what that suggests about where Iran might go from his bit about “Axis of Resistance” strategy. There was no central strategy. Alastair Crooke has stressed that Iran was very unhappy with the October 7 attack because it messed up their long game.
one must parse thusly, these days.
those fifty or more x tabs i keep refreshing in that other window, are from 360 degrees around this…as is my habit when something crazy happens.
(and Lambert was absolutely correct: for all its flaws and hidden machinations, TwitX is excellent for curating news feeds)
western and especially israeli sites are singing from the same tired old hymnal.
but everybody else tells a very different tale.
looks to me like israel(wrestling with god) has f8cked the dog, this time>
bitten off a whole lot more than what they could chew.
and like the guy in the interview says, its not like they were ever resilient,lol.
water, power, and on and on.
million points of failure…hence the hasbara and wall to wall fantasy world they erected around themselves(Iron dome, rising lion, amelek, aliyah, and on and on.)
the israelis in their holes are gonna be without water and power in short order…whats bibi gonna do?
whats the trigger for Samson?
I received my second initiation into Iranian internal politics last night. The first was when their former President died in that helicopter crash… which is to say there are many factions within the country, and I question which Alastair has been in contact with.
If one were an Iranian fundamentalist, they would not share plans of action with West-friendly progressives, worse ones that speak to British spooks… and the fundamentalists were in power on 10/7, but seemingly in decline (no pun intended, RIP President Raisi). This would make 10/7 quite the coup within the halls of Iranian power, and may have justified a helicopter accident.
With all due respect, this comment reflects a lack of discernment.
Crooke was tossed out of MI6 for having gone native, decades ago.
He’s been running an institute since at least ~2010 to try to facilitate communication between the Muslin world and the West.
Having done work in a country amazingly poorly understood in the West (Japan), all sorts of things that are common knowledge to citizens and those only trivially connected are often totally unknown to outsiders.
Crooke’s claim that Iran studies the Israelis carefully and developed their strategies, like deep bunkering, based on their weaknesses, is hardly insider intel.
Perhaps ‘spook’ was disingenuous; but I was in character. I do hold Alastair’s insight in high regard.
You are right, re: discernment… in my eagerness to test my thoughts, I overshoot. Words have meaning, and purpose, and I will try to be more mindful of both.
Of course the always Israel friendly media are going to urge intervention. But would Wall Street agree, given the huge economic threat? This is much bigger than an invasion of an already mostly helpless Iraq. And there’s the undeniable fact that Israel started the war that they now cannot finish.
I don’t think the US will try to invade Iran. But it was clear that the “experts” were trying to justify in advance America joining the Israeli atack.
And goad Trump into doing just that. Trump, far from a “strongman,” listens to and is influenced by “experts” far too much, especially on foreign policy.
This is not about “invading” Iran. It’s about going to war with Iran.
Yes, it looks like the US days of Iraq-style invasions are over, and a ground invasion of Iran would be suicidal given the terrain, and relatively large population etc.
The insane emperor is now demanding an unconditional surrender from Iran and the speculation and rumors of US airstrikes is floating around. The message is surrender or we bomb you into the Stone Age
I thought dude said that he would personally stop all the wars, grocery prices would plummet and rainbows, candy floss, and unicorns would be too numerous to count.
And to think so many people take the lies of a serially-mendacious conman at face value.
> demanding an unconditional surrender
Perhaps my “pattern-recognition circuits” are over-active, but I’ve been struck in recent days by what seems to me to be analogies between rhetoric about Ukraine/RF conflict and Iran/US.
It was recently reported (not sure whether this was a valid report) that Iran, via intermediaries, was asking for a ceasefire, followed by negotiations on its nuclear programs. “Stop shooting, then talk” sounds like Ukraine/’Collective West’ position on negotiations toward de-escalation with RF.
Now DJT is demanding “unconditional surrender”, which from Western perspective is what the RF negotiating position toward Ukraine looks like.
This leads me to wonder whether RF is being asked to abandon Iran in exchange for gettings its way in Ukraine, or whether this is a “deal” that US is hoping for. John Helmer’s “Russian for Happy Birthday, Donald …” post seems to me to suggest that JH thinks that RF is backing away from supporting Iran.
Once again, thanks Yves and the NC staff. I saw the prompt for this interview and go to Miss Blevins off/on. I’ve discovered (and shared) so many “alt media” over the years here. A breath of fresh air, though often depressing. Ignorance is not bliss.
Another person to keep an eye on is Prof Seyed Marandi. He was on George Galloway’s show a day or so ago (about 30 minutes). As Offrail points out about Mr. Marouf, Marandi is emotional as well – but rightfully so. PS, some children have starved in Gaza this a.m. Oh my!
Yes, Marandi is very good. We regularly cite him in our posts on the Middle East.
Wow and thanks. We come here to find out what’s really going on.
However I think there’s still a question whether Trump will openly go to war with Iran–particularly if he doesn’t get Congressional cover. No doubt he’s under heavy pressure from the Lobby but it seems the Pentagon is divided since where’s the upside for them? If their weapons prove ineffective or if even a large ship gets sunk then that will be a heavy blow to their MIC gravy train.
Plus Carlson is undoubtedly right that it would mean Trump’s political finish and perhaps that of his family’s business interests as well.
Wow and thanks. We come here to find out what’s really going on. My sentiment as well. Thank you Yves.
Trump may very well be stuck between a rock and a hard place on this one. You mention risk to his personal fortune and I agree. I’m worried that he entertains the fantasy of US military superiority which could lead him to a disastrous decision.
This is big if true, And the Israelis were stupid enough to attack one of the main water pipelines into Tehran last night or stupid enough because in the Zionist colony close to 90% of the people live in the area between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. And this area is not fed by water from the aquifers of the West Bank or the water of the Jordan River . It’s fed by eight desalination plants on the Mediterranean. And if those disselination plants are hit, even just half of them are out of service, they Zionist colonists will go thirsty immediately. There’s no there’s no other water source for them.
And this, And so tonight we should expect that the other electricity plant that the Israelis have and the high transforming transformer lines that come from Jordan and Egypt to be hit. is something to watch for, as well as Iran targeting the desalination plants.
Short of Iran being terrified and surrendering, Trump really has three options:
-ignore and lose in the eyes of the media and his biggest bloc of supporters.
-get smacked around and lose everywhere.
-get into a drawn-out conflict while facing various economic issues, self-inflicted and baked in.
Israeli is a genocidal nation. There isn’t a situation where Trump comes out looking good. Now, he’s throwing a tantrum. It’s been quite the two months for Trump. He basically cheesed off much of the country in a way he didn’t in his first term, fought with his BFF, and now his foreign policy is only being propped up by equally craven if not worse Euro leaders.
Israel is both genocidal and suicidal. If we can’t or won’t stop the former, we should at least let them kill themselves.
Perhaps it could be considered a “fourth option” to keep Israel on “life-support” but let it get smacked around badly while US remains at the margins, not overtly participating.
It some point Israel agrees to de-escalate and Natanyahu government falls.
DJT remains the Peace President — “I TOLD Bibi, ‘DON’T DO IT!’ (Unlike Joe Biden — what a loser. Oct 7 would never have happened if I had been President [Which I rightly was, 2020 was stolen]) But Bibi wouldn’t listen, and now his domestic political problems are even worse. SO SAD!”
Trump is already at war. He and the Israeli regime choreographed the entire thing, including
his visits to “Gulf allies” to line up their acquiescence or silence. The “negotiations” were
a sham to lure Iran into complacency, and less alertness. Although there is a
moral advantage in being the victim, the Iranians would have been better off
in retrospect to launch a first strike, but there again, the Trump regime is providing
a cloak for the Israeli regime. Iran’s retaliation is not as effective because the US is
again, helping the Zionist regime to shoot down Iranian incoming, not to mention
providing massive communication, satellite and AWACs tracking assistance.
In addition, they are replacing supply and equipment consumption by Tel Aviv,
all the while trying to posture as a semi-“neutral” observer that tried to bring
“both sides” together.
Iran is fighting both the Zionist regime and the deceptive Trump regime, cloaking and
propping up Israel. The deck has been stacked against Iran. In addition to all this,
the difficulty is that their arsenal may become exhausted in an attritional contest.
This might not be so bad in an even contest, but again, the Zionist regime is getting all they
need from Trump- so they are not feeing the full pain. Trump is bailing out the
and propping up the Tel Aviv regime, time and time again, while secretly assaulting
Iran. This latter activity will become more open over time. Unless they capitulate,
Iran might need to move to close Strait of Hormuz, and begin to attack Saudi
Arabia and the Gulf states. Here again, the exhaustion of their stocks may limit
long term prospects. The exhaustion of stocks means that they may not be
able to hit Zionist forces in Gaza either. Now is their chance, but again, Trump’s
“cloaking” operation is hindering full retaliation.
The Trump regime will no doubt “play” the Maga/ZioEvangel chuds and publicly step
up the PR campaign and proclaim that he is doing a “deal” for a ceasefire, as if he is
such a helpful “neutral.” The CHUDS will eat it up on cue. The lamestream
media will play along or maintain a muted position. Best scenario for Iran
might be for UN intervention to get a less deceptive or biased ceasefire,
and buy more off-the-shelf missile and drone replacement stocks from
China and Russia, so that their future deterrent in part remains intact. Interesting
the relative silence from China and Russia. They can introduce some UN resolutions
to get that ceasefire rolling, but they are doing little at present, isolating Iran
even more.
I think in one respect Laith Maroud is absolutely right: that Iran was waiting this out. Years and years ago and I can´t remember I believe it was Turcopolier I read an analysis of Iranian rocket capabilities and I was stunned. In their analysis they also listed Israels achilles heel – the water, the electricity et al – and that Israel would not be able to prevent Iran to destroy the basis of modern civilisation. So why did Iran never do it? Because otherwise they would be nuked by Israel. The trick was therefore to let Israel strike first. Now Israel can´t very well employ her nukes as she started the war. Iran will slowly but surely destroy Israelian civil infrastructure until Israel is unable to function anymore. Unless the US comes in. Vice versa Iran is huge and her people are not that far away from a peasant existence without electricity. Even if the US does to Iran what Iran does to Israel Iran will not buckle before Israel. And that is before you forget that there are Millions of vengeful Palestinians who were until now kept in check by a High Tech army that needs all kinds of supplies including electricity. If all of that runs out then Israel is really cooked.
“Now Israel can´t very well employ her nukes as she started the war.”
Huge leap here and potentially a disastrous one for human civilization if the Iranians are banking on it to be true
samson, again, is what worries me.
israel cutting off the feed of whats happening…including the traffic cams…and imprisoning its own population(and unconfirmed, americans, as well(!!))…doesnt really fit their MO if theyre having what can be spun as “success”…in fact, it says the exact opposite: they’re already done.
thats the criteria for Samson, afaik.
iran has made this whole thing unexpectedly existential for israel.
and with a quickness, too.
i didnt know about the jet fuel thing before right now…thats very clever.
feeling Jonestown in Guyana vibes, here.
You have a point and what is hindering Iran is that the deceptive Trump regime is running interference for the Zionist regime- beginning with the fake “negotiations,” to massive behind the scenes assistance to not only shoot down Iran incoming, but massive satellite, communications and AWACs tracking assistance. In addition the Trump regime (actually US taxpayers) and shelling out millions to replace Israeli equipment, munitions and supply consumption. Iran is fighting a double enemy. Its like Tyson and Holyfield, teaming up against Busta Douglas, 2 versus 1 in the ring. Tough odds, in an uneven fight, as Iran’s missile stocks begin to run low.
You say hit the water and electricity sites- fine, but Iran’s electric and water will also be hit. Even steven, but with the Trump regime “cloaking” the Zionist regime, the effectiveness of that escalation will be hampered. If is was a more even one-on-one contest, the Zionist regime would be feeling a lot more pain. And even if Iran managed to be effective, the Trump regime is standing buy to bail out and save its Zionist client with direct attacks against Iran. Re the Palestinians, now is Iran’s chance to hit Zionist concentrations in Gaza hard, but here again, they have Trump on call to save Tel Aviv’s “bacon.”
Did you read the interview? We require commenters to read a post in full before posting. You make it clear you didn’t.
Marouf said Israel stupidly attacked Iran’s water system, which gives Iran the right to hit Israel’s. Normally this would be a no-no as civilian infrastructure, but now it can be hit as retaliation.
The Iranians always close the stable door after the horse has bolted. The country’s greatest weakness is its severely corrupt government, which has allowed “Zionist assets” to infiltrate every level of society.
Thanks for posting this insightful interview of Laith Marouf by Rachel Blevins, who has also done a series of interviews with Mark Sleboda, which I recommend.
John Helmer’s latest post about the escalating Israel/US-Iran War included a link to a video from Deep Dive Defense, which seems authoritative. It supports Marouf’s argument that Israel air defenses are not living up to the hype from Western (and Israeli) media that may have led most Israelis to a false sense of complacency, which is now being shattered night and day by Iran. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRA2oQnXsSQ
However, I suspect this is all according to the US/Israel plan, since Israel’s attacks on Iran were reportedly planned for 8 months, and I assume it was ‘war-gamed’ knowing that Israel air defense would quickly be depleted and prove ineffective, hence the 30 USAF air refueling tankers that were just flown to Europe. This blatant threat of massive US escalation may just be another TACO feint to convince Iran to ‘beg’ for a cease fire, but I don’t understand how any competent intelligence analyst at the US DIA or the CIA could actually believe this will work– but perhaps they’ve all been DOGED at this point, or are just afraid to tell Emperor Trump that he’s naked? Maybe this is why DIA head Tulsi Gabbard posted six days ago X about the risk of nuclear war?
The news that Israel is banning flights out of Israel seems to show just how damaged their economy is from their 20 month conflict following October 7 attacks, and supports the view that Israel– even with US support– cannot sustain a long attritional conflict with Iran. The Ukraine conflict has demonstrated similar limitations by NATO/US in supporting their proxy forces against the RF.
Lastly, A Skeptic post yesterday seems to support the idea that Pakistan may already be helping Iran, so the idea that Pakistan may threaten nuclear escalation against Israel to discourage then from using nukes against Iran, and to preempt the US/Israel creating an extremely hostile neighbor on their SW border.
Wonder if the Chinese are thinking now might be a good time to run their Navy around Taiwan?
Could the US deal with the possibility of a 3rd front?
I’m wondering if Pakistan’s Chinese made J-10C is a not-factored-in wildcard in the us/isr war strategy. Versus the F-35, I’m reading F-35 has the stealth advantage, J-10 has the beyond visual range advantage. And now it’s above my pay grade.
The J-10C radar is not the key here, its the PL-17 long range missile, range of 400 km/up to mach 6 and more – its bidirectional way data link. So even if the J-10 radar picks something up first and fires it can be directed by AWCs, other fighters, ground radars. Then again it can just fire one off and then be directed by the aforementioned without out having a lock on anything.
This is point of contention with the Pak/India event – Pak uses China’s “Kill Chain” where India is somewhat like the Ukraine – ad hoc Western systems. This is playing out in the Ukraine as well, its the Kill Chain on the ground there and how Russia has refined it and its weapons systems[everything upgraded] around it.
Rumour control[tm] has it that more pizza at the Pentagon will fix this vexing problem … bada** PowerPoint presentation deployed …
Thank you.
I would add that right now the big question wrt Iran is where are the 4++ gen Su-35s with air to air missiles with a range of 300 km. So … taking out its missile/nuke bunkers would require around a dozen GBU-57A/B MOP per site, which only the B-2 can carry 2 at a time.
That would make the ballistic factor at the moment pale in comparison.
Meanwhile Russia is still taking out Ukraine’s Western anti ballistic systems, no redeployment to Israel, and basically naked now.
Thanks again. If Pakistan enters the fray is India right behind them? Chips on the table, lads.
Another question is what if the F-35 performs poorly? Will they disappear from the active theate?
Recall the widespread belief among us elite warmongers that Russia was just a gas station with nukes. Imo the west still retains quite a few fantasies re western superiority, no matter their own war games show less than ideal results in war with Iran. And likely similar results vs China.
You say:
“It supports Marouf’s argument that Israel air defenses are not living up to the hype from Western (and Israeli) media that may have led most Israelis to a false sense of complacency, which is now being shattered night and day by Iran.”
–You are probably right, but the Trump “cloaking” operation of the Tel Aviv regime, both diplomatic and military, is helping the Zionist regime to not feel the full pain. In addition the US taxpayer is providing millions to replace the Israeli regime’s munitions, equipment and supplies, not to mention the huge spread of military assets on standby to cover Tel Aviv, all funded by US taxpayers. What do we get in return for all this? With “boss” Trump running interference for the Zionist regime they got it made.
————————–
This blatant threat of massive US escalation may just be another TACO feint to convince Iran to ‘beg’ for a cease fire, but I don’t understand how any competent intelligence analyst at the US DIA or the CIA could actually believe this will work..”
—————-
The threat is not merely a threat. The US is already deeply involved: from the fake negotiations, to heavy assistance from AWACs and satellite assets, shootdown assistance, to fulsome replacement of munitions, to the “standby” to bail out the Zionist regime from feeling too much pain. And no doubt US Special forces are coordinating with the Israeli regime as we.. They are just “cloaking” the blank check that Tel Aviv has already been given. But as for a direct threat, it means Iran can’t hit back no holds barred for fear of converting the “standby” threat into OPEN action (to go with the ongoing covert action). For example there are plenty of US assets on Israeli territory lending direct assistance to the Tel Aviv regime. Iran has to avoid those, hindering the full retaliation and full pain that would be extant, in a more even contest. The “threat” may actually work, as the attritional horizon widens. While the Israeli regime will be restocked and bankrolled by the shovel of the Trump regime, Iran must fight on alone. Its a far cry from 1960s Vietnam where massive Russian and Chinese aid kept the North Vietnamese Army/PAVN in the field for almost a decade against the US, with an ultimately victorious conclusion. And the other Arab “bros” with plenty of cash, are not lifting a finga to help Iran.
————————
“However, I suspect this is all according to the US/Israel plan, since Israel’s attacks on Iran were reportedly planned for 8 months, and I assume it was ‘war-gamed’ knowing that Israel air defense would quickly be depleted and prove ineffective, hence the 30 USAF air refueling tankers that were just flown to Europe. ”
——————–
Exactly. Compare the “blank check” for Tel Aviv, plus US assistance, to Iran, fighting on relatively alone.
———————–
I don’t understand how any competent intelligence analyst at the US DIA or the CIA could actually believe this will work– but perhaps they’ve all been DOGED at this point, or are just afraid to tell Emperor Trump that he’s naked?
———————–
They may get away with it, and sure, its all been planned and choreographed. Its interesting all these types thinking the finally got a “nationalist” putting “America first” – when in actuality, their boy is tied into the same neocon, or Zionist web, and game, they have so long denounced…
———————
“nd supports the view that Israel– even with US support– cannot sustain a long attritional conflict with Iran.”
They would have difficulty, but with the US “blank check” and support (once again) shoveled to Tel Aviv, for another endless war, they would quite possibly ride it out, and Iran have to capitulate, because of the attrition. The Trump/Arab/Israeli regime axis actually are hoping attrition brings Iran to its knees, as its arsenal is exhausted. Arab “bros” are actually helping things along, with their silence, or not too loud or serious pro forma pleas for “calm” and a ceasefire, and provision of bases and fuel for US assets.. What they don’t seem to understand, is that the Zionist regime is now the hegemon in the region and they will have to bow to them. This means the Palestinians will be sacrificed.. and the “bros” themselves at risk for similar treatment..
RE “You are probably right, but the Trump “cloaking” operation of the Tel Aviv regime, both diplomatic and military, is helping the Zionist regime to not feel the full pain” I have no idea how you can say that. 2 million Israelis are trying to leave and are being held hostage.
Click to read the entire tweet:
Thank you for featuring it. I foolishly tend to sideline Bevins simply because I have difficulty with how she handles her voice as interviewer. Some pro should give her a bit of advice.
Hear hear. The nasal tinge kills off any idea of authority and makes me seek the “next” button.
Hm, I don´t think it´s actually about authority, although I think I know what you mean.
If actors do not know what their text is about but they only repeat it you can hear it. And that is annoying.
Because it does injustice to the text and to the acting. Both don´t correspond with each other. And that causes a disturbance in the form of the whole of a performance.
And interviewing has a performative element too.
How far that can in fact betray and divert the audience into believing that the interviewer is a samaritan while that interviewer is really calling for genocide is one of the intricacies of modern mass media. And explains the rise of anchor-ism instead of serious TV journalism.
(Audiences don´t process the information neutrally but the judgement of it by the anchor.)
Style/form replace content.
But that´s a topic too big to address here…however at least to point at my reasoning behind my critique.
its her diction.
the girl i rescued from a jam, all those years ago…which exercise in chivalry began in earnest my outlaw career….talked just like that.
so i kinda like it,lol.
yeah, doesn’t bother me either, she does good interviews
Her voice hits the spot for me. And she often introduces her toy dog. None of whcih detracts from the ability to ask the next logical question – tiresomely absent in MSM cheerleaders.
Among the points of fresh information in the interview was the claim Israel’s jet fuel depots were destroyed.
Interesting!
Israel nuclear capacity is American….
From outside the LibDem bubble, check out this Breaking Points interview with comedian and (former) Trump supporter Dave Smith, admitting it was a mistake to support Trump, and is now calling for Trumps impeachment! Just ‘skip’ the ad, and listen to surprisingly (to me–lol) well informed libertarian criticism of Trump and Bibi.
My fave quote: “make no mistake, we are at war right now with Iran”. Btw, being willing and able to change your mind based on new info or a new understanding– and publicly admit you were wrong– is something I respect, and seems all too rare these days in public discourse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMo00fQesII
One of Trump’s ‘selling points’ in 2024 were his claims that he didn’t– and wouldn’t– start any new wars. This got him support from lots of veterans and their families and friends. I feel that Trump is rapidly losing much of his base, who are feeling, from several Trump voters I’ve talked to: ‘this is not what I voted for’.
Dave Smith sounds well-informed and rational, and they also discuss Israel’s ‘unconfirmed’ possession of 80-200 nukes. That nuke story was recently covered by Kit Klarenberg (who I’ve read on the GrayZone), who also shows the CIA was getting intelligence from Israel (and sharing US top secret info with Israel) going back to at least 1953! https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/hidden-history-how-israel-acquired
I’m increasingly reinterpreting Putin’s warnings on a nuclear war. I am now more inclined to see his prior comments being more about Russia (or Iran or China) being put into a confrontational position where US or NATO forces are strategically caught with their pants down and the risk becomes that the US/NATO (or Isreal) launch a nuclear weapon, not necessarily that Russia uses tactical weapons on the battle field because it’s worried that it’s in an existential losing position.
In the current situation with Isreal & Iran, we are closing in on a situation where the US becomes directly and actively involved and we can only do that, at least on week one, via massive airpower via US bases and aircraft carriers. As I mentioned the other day in a comment, if the US gets involved, I foresee the first sinking of a US aircraft carrier since WWII and under US nuclear doctrine (as I recall) this could be grounds to use nuclear weapons.
If Iran sank a US aircraft carrier, it would be proof of a massive change in America’s ability to project force. In a sane world, the US as a 3rd part would reconsider its involvement in the war; however given sanity is not the most likely behavior outcome, the question becomes is it actually more likely that a nuclear response would be the outcome. Iran (and it’s strategic partners/allies) is/are probably considering this math right now.
the nimitz is going there for just that purpose: to become the nimitz reef.
its due to retire and become a museum somewheres next year.
instead, perhaps a casus belli.
idk how to find info on crew compliment, aside from what “normal” is.
how many sailors on that ship right now?
if its a skeleton crew, i’d be really, really worried right now.
(im already really, really worried)
(“you must go on.
I cannot go on.
I will go on”-Becket, the unnameable.)
A Nuclear War is far more likely today compared to the 1980s as limited Nuclear Weapons encourage a dangerous complacency which has also been facilitated by the horror of deleted Uranium left in Iraq with the horrific malformaties that have arisen there.
The White Nationalist Evangelicals who yearn for the Rapture and the Genocidal Israelis with their Samson option ensure a terrifying Knife Edge.
It seems, in the US, the MSM only provides certain viewpoints of conflicts. E.G. For years Russia has been running out of missiles, manpower. and losing in Ukraine. Consequently, the propaganda must be taken with enormous grains of salt. So it is interesting to get a different perspective. Of course, the truth lies somewhere between opposing partisan viewpoints; but, if Iran does have the capacity to accurately target facilities in Israel, those strategic targets can be easily identified. First and foremost, will be, as the interview suggests, logistical sites: fuel, electricity, food, water, and transportation. This , next, puts outsider supply chains in jeopardy in the event of continuued escalation. In a long war or war of attrition, Israel has no strategic depth, except the US, and that, given TACO, cannot be taken for granted. In the US, the standard response is to: nuke the opposition. However, this can easily bring other actors (China & Russia) into the fray, which means the use of conventional weapons and then boots on the ground. So, unless, Israel can destroy Iran’s capacity to retailiate, the econoimic collapse of Israel is a paramount threat. In addition Putin could emulate Trump, and advise ‘Russians’ in Israel to evacuate, ASAP. It’s impossible to predict outcomes at this point, but given Trump’s and Hegseth’s track record in international affairs, Netanyahu may be grasping for straws if he is relying on them. It wouldn’t surprising if Hegseth puts all the air tankers on one airport, or all the boats in the Straits of Hormuz. If the Houthis managed to stalemate the US, even a few ‘bunker busting bombs’ might not to do the trick with Iran. If few oil carrying vessels on fire in the Persian Gulf (as are now, but not related to hostilities) are enough to spook shippers, a few more more might cause a market collapse.
It is rather impressive to see how Iran follows Russia’s methods and deflates the chosen peoples crazies as well as their pimps in such a slowly developing escalatory fashion. When you are confronted with a knife wielding madman high on substances, you cannot argue anything and escalating may be self-harming.
It is also impressive how the limited amount of counter pressure from Team Resistance seems to drive the old big bwanas wild and prone to greater and greater acts of silliness.
And this is all without the big gorilla as much as saying anything.
And to see “my” PM, Two Tier Kier, with the Clown Rutte, bleating about more money for war earlier today, when U.K. inflation sends exponentially more people into poverty, is just sickening.
The sooner that all these sickos are rubbed out, the better. Not just for the abused overseas people, but for us, home colonialists.
I beg to differ. Iran is a vastly older civilization than Russia. Iran does not emulate Russia. Iran is Iran.
The similarity in method is because Putin is fabulously patient, cautious and calculating, which is not true of all Russians (see Medvedev for instance). This seems to be a cultural characteristic in Iran.
I merely referred to a technical point of what appeared to be similar war-waging technique in what is or will become a war of attrition. As Israel will not put Iran out in one, it will have to be attrited by Iran over an extended period of time (if Iranians have some sense). The same way that Russians are softening NATO. BTW, I believe Medvedev is simply Putin’s bad cop partner being displayed for public consumption. The years and years of western treachery must have exasperated old Vlad, no way they wouldn’t have, but he must present himself as polite measured and civilised and let Dmitri say the bad stuff.
thats my take on those two, as well.
good cop/bad cop.
Yesssss.
While they might not care about PR/Russian view of things absorbed in the West they are well capable of absorbing the Russian population´s reasoning of what is going on. And corresponding in an adequate manner.
To speak out one´s opinion publicly in lieu of all others has not by accident been one major factor in the rise of theatre as an ancient art form and form of entertainment.
As much as it may have been a useful valve to protect the elites from the ire of the masses it always was also perceived and appreciated by those very same masses as a form of universal justice. Even if in words only.
And even if far-fetched analogy by me that is what those good cop/bad cop appearances do for the domestic front.
Because frankly no one in the West, either journalist or politician will care a second about what insults Medvedev will state in public. So why else should he impersonate that role?
i think its brilliant as a FP tactic.
2 calm wise men(putin and lavrov), a wild man(medvev(sp-2)) and an ironic madonna/whore to add biting wit(ive had a crush on her from the get-go).
layered on top of the usual stentorian and/or sonorous bureau-speak of practically everyone below those 4…ive really come to appreciate russian humor, these past few years.
and, just for completeness…the only one on our side i like, these days:
https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1932368919039459348
It really disturbs me the degree to which readers seem compelled to treat Iran as inferior. This is Orientalism and a form of bigotry.
Does Russia have enormous underground nuclear enrichments sites, missile launchers and missile caches? Huge underground factories?
Alastair Crooke has repeatedly stressed how Iran has carefully studied Israel’s weakness and built its strategy and operations on that. Any resemblance to Russia is coincidental, or alternatively, great minds working alike.
I wait with interest to see if the Congress takes up the war powers act resolution. If we are to join a war, at the very least Congress should vote for it.
Not much more to add, especially now that the fog of war is really setting in. I imagine we’ll start getting even less info dripping through, even on alternative sites, very similar to the start of the Ukraine War. I just have some other thoughts, mostly repeating things I’ve probably said here before:
1. Anything is possible, but in a weird way, I think all this talk of nukes is effectively becoming propaganda more than anything. I don’t know what their options are, but the Iranians have clearly planned out fighting to this point, which isn’t something they would do if they truly had to climb down. That means they have deterrence & contingency plans even if Israel or the US start talking about using WMDs.
I’ve said before that I’m in that minority that thinks Iran may already have their own nuclear strike package, but in such a defensive posture with quiet reassurances to the right people (#1 being Saudia) that they don’t interpret it as a “weapon”. There’s also the wildcard of whether Russia, China, or Pakistan would allow a single nuke by Israel / US to slide unanswered, but I don’t think gambling like that has ever really been the Iranian way of doing things.
2. There are still people on some sites talking about “false flags” like it’s still some magic switch that will magically get 90% of America to fall in line. Clearly these people haven’t met enough millennials and zoomers that would actually be fighting a war. US youth support or even basic trust, and therefore manpower, simply doesn’t exist in significant quantities anymore. If Trump tried conscription, complete with body-snatchers like in Ukraine, the only place you’d start seeing running street-battles would be in the US.
3. Like I say, I’m not Iranian, just weirdly Persianized, and my personal experience is actually coming from a life adjacent to the US military. But I have to wonder how much everyone talking about the US getting involved like it’s actually going to work has really tried to learn about modern Iran, or the current state of the US military for that matter. How much have they really freed themselves from the propaganda that “America can always bomb everyone” or that Iran is a “backwards, unstable regime of fanatics with no support”?
I’m ultimately just a dude on the internet, but putting everything I know about the US and Iran together, my intuition is simple: if the US and even all of NATO enters this war, they will lose along with Israel. Not all at once, maybe even slower than to the Russians in Ukraine. The Iranians don’t bluff though, they hold capabilities back, and if this goes all the way, they will eventually tear through every enemy plane, ship, and base between Egypt and India like a rabid tiger on meth.
good points.
it aint 1992…nor is it 2001.
the world has changed…its just that the ruling class hasnt noticed it.
the neocons are still in their walnut panelled rooms, jerking to thucydides in their wingback chairs…but they always collapse, sated, just before athens loses at syracuse.
(similar to how mainstream economists only quote half a sentence of Wealth of Nations)
the USA!!! led west was already a narcissistic and even schitzoid blob of id and ego…living in a mirrored bubble…but now, a true narcissist psychopath is at the helm.
truly, the stupidest timeline.
the aliens manning the quarantine will be talking about us for centuries.
so i guess there’s that….
1.) The US will not “go to war” with Iran. The bluster and bombs are strategic tension to sell the deal.
2.) There will be regime change in Iran—and Israel—based on a deal with the GCC already brokered by China.
3.) The Palestinians will get their own state.
4.) Trump will receive the Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating the peace that China brokered.
Decades of radicalizing Israelis against Arabs radicalized against Jews to destabilize the Middle East for the benefit of the MIC is coming to an end. This is what I see when I follow the money and not the theatrical narrative in the news. Break down Trump’s speech in Saudi within the above framework and what seems crazy now will make more sense.
Adam
The US already is at war with Iran through its proxy…….along with the UK,France, and Germany.
US clients in the neighborhood are supporting the Zionist proxy as well because of money.
We all know this. But there’s a huge difference between a proxy war and the US military in direct conflict with Iran, in which case Trump could not play the peace broker.
The Trump-as-peace-broker ship has sailed. It should be clear by now that the US has never been an honest broker in Middle East conflicts.
After admitting that he knew Israel was planning these attacks whilst the US was negotiating with Iranians, is there any reason for them to talk further with the US?
The credibility of the US in any diplomatic negotiations is today in the dustbin of history. It’s just a clown show, with band members like Tony Blinken doing occasional gigs in basement Nazi bars.
In lieu of another party to serve as intermediary, it’s looking more and more like the resolution to this conflict with be military.
Seems delusional- albeit wish-worthy.
You have lost your mind.
Doesn’t seem so crazy now, does it?
Marouf speaks of the “mythology” of Israeli air superiority in this conflict.
Forgive a perhaps naive question, but is there any credible video of IDF planes making daytime sorties over Iran? Are they actually entering Iranian airspace or are they mostly firing air-to-surface missiles from outside the airspace? How much of IDF activity is actually ground action by infiltrators being passed off as an air strike?
“refinery are down: The new challenge for the Israeli energy market
The Iranian missile strike on Bazan, which caused three deaths, also led to the shutdown of all refinery facilities. • The Leviathan and Karish gas reservoirs have also been shut down since the start of the campaign. • In the meantime, Sonol has announced supply disruptions to some customers, but the Energy Ministry insists that no fuel shortage is expected. • How long will it take for the refineries to return to activity”
https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001513149#:~:text=refinery%20are%20down,return%20to%20activity
Wow, that is a huge projection by the author.
Unless, he was just making a joke.
You make this mistake of assuming he’s making this up. He’s not:
No matter how bad you think the IDF is, it’s worse.