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Links 7/9/2025

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Blood in the Water, Blood on the Beach: History of Naval Warfare, Part 11 Big Serge

How SpaceX is blocking astronomers’ view of space Musk Watch

Why don’t we trust technology in sport? BBC. resilc: “You can’t spell shIT without IT.”

Hundreds of thousands of children have type 1 diabetes. Now, there’s a Barbie who has it, too CNN (Micael T)

Weedkiller ingredient widely used in US can damage organs and gut bacteria, research shows Guardian

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Experts call new Canadian Long COVID guidelines “contradictory” and “deeply concerning” Sick Times

Climate/Environment

The science behind Texas’ catastrophic floods Grist

Conspiracy Theories About the Texas Floods Lead to Death Threats Wired (resilc)

A third of global chip supply threatened by climate change and drought by 2035: PwC South China Morning Post

Melting glaciers and ice caps could unleash wave of volcanic eruptions, study says Guardian

China?

China producer price deflation deepens as US trade war bites Financial Times

China’s CPI edges up 0.1% in June, bolstered by the government’s pro-growth stimulus package: NBS Global Times. More proof of deflationary pressures. Here in Southeast Asia, I see close to nada in the way of price increases (eggs are an interesting exception) and even some declines (markedly for ride-hail fares, which suggests a very weak labor market). So China looks to be exporting deflation in the region.

China Cements Leadership in Wind and Solar OilPrice

Dependence on China’s minerals blocks Indian ‘strategic autonomy’ Asia Times (Kevin W)

China is boycotting American farms. So why are farmers so optimistic? Kevin Walmsley

From last week, still germane:

Africa

Death toll in Kenya from anti-government protests rises to 31 Anadolu Agency

Creative Ethiopian Diplomacy Might Deter An Egyptian-Backed Eritrean-TPLF Offensive Andrew Korybko

O Canada

Canada Shipping Natural Gas to Asia as It Looks Beyond the US for Trade New York Times (resilc)

South of the Border

Mexico opens investigation against former President Peña Nieto for alleged bribery from Israeli software company Aurora Israel

European Disunion

The European Green Deal Has Failed Thomas Fazi, Compact

Old Blighty

Millions of tonnes of toxic sewage sludge spread on UK farmland every year Guardian (Kevin W)

British Government: “We Accept Of Course That It Is Draconian: And Deliberately So” Sam Husseini

To fight ban on Palestine Action, we must learn from university protesters openDemocracy

In England, Parents Are Moving Their Children Into a Doomsday Cult—With a Man Calling Himself ‘the New Pope’ Vice (resilc)

Israel v. The Resistance

* * *

Spain probes Netanyahu over Gaza ship Madleen attack BAHA

* * *

The National Education Association just voted to cut all ties to the Anti-Defamation League Mondoweiss. Wow.

* * *

U.S. Spent 8 Years’ Worth of THAAD Interceptors in Under Two Weeks Haaretz (Robin K)

Saudi crown prince meets Iranian foreign minister amid regional diplomacy push Arab News

The meeting above looks to be more than a courtesy: Riyadh realigns: Tehran over Tel Aviv The Cradle

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine – Drone Mass Production Lets Russia Gain Upper Hand Moon of Alabama

IN BRIEF: Drone attacks kill three on Kursk beach, leave civilians injured in Rylsk and Western-supplied weapons used for killing children — diplomat about attack on Kursk beach TASS

Russia attacks Ukraine’s draft offices in effort to undermine armed forces Financial Times. Get a load of the subhead.

Conman: The Story of William Browder Lucy Komisar

Imperial Collapse Watch

Martin Wolf on the Coming Fall of the U.S. Economy Yascha Mounk

Trump’s Schizophrenia Cannot Hide the US Lack of Strategic Depth Larry Johnson

Trump 2.0

Military operation in Los Angeles signals escalation of fascist methods WSWS

* * *


BRICS Are No Threat to US Dollar Dominance, But Trump Is Michael Shedlock

* * *

Inside the staff exodus and tanking morale that threaten Makary’s FDA STAT

FDA Cuts Will Limit Scrutiny of Troubled Foreign Drug Factories, Inspectors Say ProPublica (Robin K)

Inside the Collapse of the F.D.A. New York Times (Kevin W). Radithor futures.

How We Made Trump Back Down Offensive with Kris Goldsmith (Tom H)

* * *

The “Big Beautiful Bill” & Law-School Student Loan Debt Credit Slips

Tariffs

Trump says August 1 tariff deadline is firm, hours after saying it wasn’t Axios

Trump delays tariffs as the rest of the world plays hardball BBC

US copper price hits record high after Donald Trump threatens 50% tariff; more trade letters expected today – business live Guardian

Supremes

Supreme Court clears the way for Trump’s plans to downsize the federal workforce Associated Press (Kevin W)

Mamdani

What I Learned Working for Zohran Mamdani Harper O’Connor, YouTube. Timotheus: “I canvassed for Mamdani and found this young guy’s take on the campaign pretty much spot on, including his comments on cold-calling voters. As a grandpa among the 20-something’s, it was an encouraging and inspiring experience.”

Why I stopped reading the NYT Angry Bear

AI

Imposter used AI to pose as Marco Rubio and contact foreign ministers BBC. Perhaps this will lead to laws against faking voices?

Massive study detects AI fingerprints in millions of scientific papers PhysOrg

Microsoft, OpenAI, and a US Teachers’ Union Are Hatching a Plan to ‘Bring AI Into the Classroom’ Wired (Kevin W). So union leaders are throwing their members into a wood chipper. What sexual favors were exchanged for this to happen?

Elon Musk’s AI chatbot is suddenly posting antisemitic tropes CNN (Kevin W)

Georgia Court Throws Out Earlier Ruling That Relied on Fake Cases Made Up By AI The Register

Class Warfare

This July 4, Where is America’s Land of Opportunity? Washington Monthly (resilc)

Where is the Resistance? Jonah Faulkner (guurst)

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus:

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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156 comments

  1. Antifa

    The Grand Trump Name
    (melody borrowed from Take Me Out To The Ball Game written by Albert Von Tilzer and Jack Norworth, as performed by Edward Meeker in 1908)

    Trump was ruined by his own Dad
    Little boys are not armor clad
    Pleasing Dad was his daily due
    Too much to—live up to!

    Growing up was a horror show
    Both his parents would call him slow
    Our Donnie had nowhere else to go
    So he grew—like those two!

    Trump’s a person with no shame
    He’s abusive and loud
    Dementia tariffs and lowered tax
    He’s an unhinged old insomniac
    He will loot, loot, loot with his mad schemes
    Wealth is his claim to fame
    For it’s Me, Me, Me it’s about
    And the grand Trump name!

    As our nation dissolves in flames
    Trump keeps making his crazy claims
    Now our empire scrapes along
    Trump’s been wrong—all along

    What in Hell will this madman do?
    Launch more wars for NetanYahoo?
    Failure sticks to this man like glue
    A Loser his whole life long

    Trump’s a person with no shame
    He’s abusive and loud
    Dementia tariffs and lowered tax
    He’s an unhinged old insomniac
    He will loot, loot, loot with his mad schemes
    Wealth is his claim to fame
    For it’s Me, Me, Me it’s about
    And the grand Trump name!

  2. The Rev Kev

    ‘William Huo
    @wmhuo168
    🚨🇩🇪🇨🇳 BREAKING: Germany demands Apple & Google remove China’s DeepSeek AI from their app stores.’

    Well that’s it then. As Germany has jurisdiction over American corporations, they are just going to have to do what Merz tells them to do. Worth reading the full tweet thread here-

    https://xcancel.com/wmhuo168/status/1942737845963350316

    1. JP

      I’m sorry, but this is extremely misleading, if not completely wrong.

      It’s not “Germany” that’s demanding Apple and Google to remove the DeepSeek app from their app stores, but the Berlin Commissioner for Data Protection and Freedom of Information (Berliner Beauftragte für Datenschutz und Informationsfreiheit, BlnBDI), i.e. the Data Protection Authority (DPA) of the German State of Berlin.

      You can criticize the arguments put forward, but only if you have read them.

      There is a press release on the BlnBDI’s website (https://www.datenschutz-berlin.de/infothek/pressemitteilungen/#c381) where you find the authority’s arguments, including in English:

      https://www.datenschutz-berlin.de/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/publikationen/DSK/2025/20250627-Berlin-DPA-Press-Release-DeepSeek.pdf

      1. bertl

        I think it’s the EU and German equivalent of pissing against the wind and the blowback is as expected.

  3. JohnA

    Re Trump’s letters to Japan and others. This surely simply reflects the Donald’s German heritage, where all nouns are capitalised no matter where in a sentence they appear.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Either that or they got lazy and had an AI write up the whole thing. And as American elite education is not what it once was, those White House staffers only, like myself, have a nodding acquaintance with proper grammar and didn’t recognize anything wrong with the outlay of that letter. Maybe what they need is an old-fashioned school teacher on staff. They could send a copy of a letter to her, she would go through it with her red marker and return it to the White House for correction and re-wording. This process would be repeated until they got it right and only then could it be sent off to a foreign government.

      1. Wukchumni

        …might the explanation be as simple as Trump trying to capitalize on everything?

        1. The Rev Kev

          Somebody should tell him that using so many capitals might lead him to being accused of being a Marxist and being inspired by Das Kapital

    2. RookieEMT

      I’m impressed. There’s no panic at 11:50 PM moment. There’s no desperate googling. No last second searches for formats.

      Just ‘send’.

      1. Bsn

        Reminds me of MAD magazine’s use of random capitols. It’s been going on for a long time as if it’s cool or a “style”. Then again, some commenters in NC write using zero capitols. It’s too bad we’ve gotten so sloppy or lazy, and it’s difficult to read.

        2. XXYY

          I have days where I also wish English did not have the concept of upper and lower case. Particularly if you are writing on a phone, doing proper capitalization is a lot more work.

          Speech to text translation apps also seem to have a lot of problems with capitalization, and so necessitate a lot of reworking of translated text. This can be extra difficult if you’re using a phone keyboard that lacks arrow keys for positioning the cursor.

          Traditional full size computer keyboards were the good old days when it came to capitalization.

          1. tawal

            ALL STATE DEPARTMENT MEMORANDUM ARE WRITTEN IN ALL CAPITAL LETTERS

            or at least they were into 1980s

    3. Mikel

      I can already see a title for a future book about this Trump administration:
      “Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter”

      FFS…it’s also all over those ransom note posts to social media.

    4. Jason Boxman

      I thought it was gonna be a tweet bemoaning an inability to competently use grammar and spelling; and it sort of is.The style is an unhinged as Trump speaking.

      It’s like we’ve all been pranked and then you realize this really is the World that You live in.

    5. Kouros

      I think it captures in fact how Trump speaks and thinks. Does Trump speak any other language than English. He barely reads things in English. Has he ever seen a text in German and does he even know that nouns are capitalized: that is all nouns.

      The letters also reflect the sycophancy around Trump. Old human habit. Imperial Japan adopted painting teeth in black because one emperor had rotten teeth.

      Let’s wait and see when the style will include using some colour code for various words in the text of a document. I have seen books for kids written that way so somebody, to show submission, will come with the idea.

      The colour for Trump’s name and job title will be yellow/gold, or imperial purple, or both, upper half gold, lower half of the letter purple.

      1. duckies

        I expect nothing less than Trump ordering creation of Trump emoji, so that he could sign letters like this one:
        🇯🇵 💰 💯 %

  4. Wukchumni

    When he was young
    He often wondered
    What would he be?

    He certainly wont be pretty
    He certainly will be grouchy
    Vermont is more his tea

    Que sera, sera
    Yo! Semite
    Anti-Semite Semite
    You see
    A traitor to Zionist tendencies
    As if his say has any sway anyway
    Que sera, sera

    Que sera, sera
    Whatever will be, will be
    The future’s not ours to see
    Que sera, sera
    What will be, will be

    1. Terry Flynn

      Re English cults: I attended (At great risk to my health since I had to drink something – plastic straw I’d kept to drink diet cola LOL) in person meeting to discuss “the Swiss Referendum based model”.

      Turns out it was a recruitment meeting for a certain political party.

      I got immense and personal abuse online for asking an innocent question. I’ve been around long enough so that I didn’t rise to the bait. UNTIL a woman said she was profoundly worried when it became knowledge (via the pile-on to me) that the whole thing was videoed and circulated publicly without consent – a violation of UK Law. I was not going to raise a complaint about “trolling” since these are ignored but I KNOW they act upon violations of UK law re media etc VERY promptly. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Needless to say I screenshotted all the incriminating evidence before they banned me.

      1. The Rev Kev

        ‘Turns out it was a recruitment meeting for a certain political party.’

        So, was it partly about them trying to reform the British political system?

        1. Terry Flynn

          Yep! Well done for reading between the lines.

          It’s not that I think all Reform voters are awful…….it’s just that it attracts certain types of people disproportionately. I told my mum if they are the government in 2029 I’m using my Aussie citizenship to move back to Aus……and I WILL NOT have enough money to come back and visit so it’s bye-bye (neither parent would do trans-continental flights). That did NOT go down well since mum intends to vote Reform. Dad is a businessman and knows full well to steer well clear of them.

  5. JohnA

    Re Why don’t we trust technology in sport?

    Technology is fine in sports with natural breaks that are part of the game, such as cricket and American Football. But not with soccer and tennis where an action that is disputable, such as offside or a line call, can happen seconds or even minutes before the next natural break in play occurs. The VAR used in soccer causes as many problems as it solves, is often subjective, and can take minutes to reach a decision, and still be controversial. Hence regular calls to get rid of it.

    1. AG

      >”The VAR used in soccer causes as many problems as it solves”
      Sorry, but that´s nonsense to me knowledge.

      When I was still following the professional soccer analytics by German Spielverlagerung blog staff et.al. (Martin Rafelt, Rene Maric, Tobias Escher and many others) many of whom work on top level in the professional soccer world by now/or are working as soccer commentators for MSM, the question was never whether VAR or not. The question were details of how to implement.

      And this is true for any major soccer country´s tactical knowledge base.

      The above statement lacks serious basis. Which is one reason why there is zero internal discussion among soccer professionals.

      I haven´t had time in recent years which is why I added “to my knowledge”. But that doesn´t change the greater scheme. It is true that 2 days ago during the Womens Soccer European Championship they needed several minutes to decide whether it was off or not (eventually the goal was annulled). I haven´t researched the cause but even then you saw no complaint at all. And that was one of thousands of decisions going through the VAR system constantly.

      It´s frankly odd that soccer is such a huge thing and still these ancient views are so pervasive.

      While the level of professionalism within the soccer community is extremely high. So parts of the audience seem to be very far off what the creators and designers of their favourite sport in fact think and do.

      One of the very rare exceptions of popular level think of the use of analytics in popular sports was the movie “Moneyball”. But it´s an entirely different beast since.

      This paper/text on the subject is from 2019, i.e. very old by the technology´s standards, but it does what I suggest, it isn´t questioning the idea and implementation as such but what it means for the game and how coaching could benefit.


      Potential Strategic Consequences of Introducing Video Assistant Referees (VAR) in Top Level Professional Football Coaching
      10.07.2019
      https://spielverlagerung.com/2019/07/10/potential-strategic-consequences-of-var/

      “(…)
      Conclusion

      Regardless of one’s personal positions on having video aid match officiating, the implementation of VAR appears to be inevitable throughout the world’s top leagues (provided they have the resources) because of its high success rate in getting calls correct. Due to this shift in the match environment, there are bound to be consequences on how coaches make decisions and players perform on the pitch. From a coaching perspective, those who are prepared can use the breaks in the game as a de facto “timeout”, allowing their team to more efficiently implement changes that the coaches see fit since everyone can be addressed at once. Players can take more risks relative to the timing of their actions and have the “play on” policy make the final verdict rather than the refereeing trio.

      In either case, these latest changes in football rules and officiating are ways to solve a problem that has encountered over many games. Consequently, behavior from both players and coaches will change as well, until the next set of problems arises.
      (…).

      1. JohnA

        ”The VAR used in soccer causes as many problems as it solves”
        Sorry, but that´s nonsense to me knowledge.

        Please then explain why it remains extremely controversial and has already been banned in Norway.

        As it is, many VAR interventions take several minutes to resolve, and then the VAR official actually asks the referee to go to a pitchside TV monitor to have another look. The referee is then required to make his own subjective assessment of whether or not a goal should be allowed/ruled out, penalty awarded/rescinded, red card issued/rescinded etc. If the technology were that good, why is the referee asked to make a decision? The VAR panel (more than one person) should simply tell the referee what the technology has revealed and he must abide by that.

        PS I am personally on the fence about VAR. However, technology is a big help in cricket, that has natural breaks that allow time to check.

        2. QuiksilverMessenger

          Indeed. VAR in fact seems to be breeding even more controversy! Perhaps not for automated offside and goal line tech, but more subjective “fouls in the build up”, potential red card offenses, handball etc.

          The main issue for me is how it strips so much of what makes the game great. The unbridled joy (or misery if it goes against your side!) of a goal scored has been replaced by dread: will it be given? Disallowed? How long must we wait? And then can we celebrate? I can’t stand it

      2. JMH

        I much prefer fallible humans with no machine backup. The games survived the inevitable errors. Those who could claim “we wuz robbed” dined out on their tales of outrage, lived to fight another day. But the machines are here to stay. Would it be too much to ask that the final adjudication of a line call in tennis and soccer be the umpire and that in sports such as baseball and football there be a strict time limit on re-plays after which the call on the field stands.

        I remember a photograph of a first base umpire signaling out and the ball some distance from the first baseman’s mitt. Baseball survived as did the umpire. I think that was during the 1946 world series, which is the first one of which I have any memory.

  6. Wukchumni

    Conspiracy Theories About the Texas Floods Lead to Death Threats Wired (resilc)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Daniel Swain is a weather wunderkind, and his blog is mostly pertaining to Cali, but he’s hep to elsewhere, and there’s a nearly 2 hour video in the link pertaining to what happened in Texas and responses.

    https://weatherwest.com/archives/43444

    1. Carolinian

      Cloud seeding kills campers versus Putin uses Facebook to elect Trump in 2016. There’s CT and then there’s CT about the CT.

      My own theory is that Texas has more than its share of wackos but perhaps size alone can account. Dems will have to find their own excuse.

      1. ambrit

        ” Dems will have to find their own excuse.”
        Sorry, but there is no excuse for the Dems.

  8. flora

    re: really can’t stand the anti-science trend in the united states right now pic.twitter.com/c1IJFHPuaD

    — ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) July 8, 2025

    The FDA and CDC have a lot of work to do to restore trust, imo.

    Jimmy Dore, utube, ~11+ minutes.

    FDA FINALLY Drops The Hammer on COVID Vaccine! – w/ Mary Holland

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJfaPxyVw_c

    The current narrative gets better (or worse), changing the story. Dore, utube, ~16+ minutes.

    Sanjay Gupta Calls Out HIS OWN COVID Lies!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYJ8OAmOnmU

    The MSM is in full cya mode.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I normally appreciate your comments. However, I approved this one only to reprimand you.

      Please be advised I am not approving any more links to Jimmy Dore on Covid vaccines. He’s dishonest and a crank. And you don’t have to spend much time on a search engine to find that out:

      1. Bsn

        I think it’s important to take any position or story, case by case. With Trump for example, he’s often lost and downright wrong, but on occasion – correct. It’s the message not the messenger. Same with Dore. On certain subjects he is lost, on others spot on. An argument should be based on its merits, not the merits of the proponent. Seldom is a position or answer black or white.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          This remark is really misplaced.

          Did you not read what I wrote? We expect adequate reading comprehension here.

          My criticism of him was on his take on the Covid vaccines, and to add, on ivermectin too. I take it but I put it in the same category as daily aspirin as a colon cancer preventive….low cost, good safety profile, maybe helpful, so why not? But depicting it as a cure, as he has, is misleading.

      2. JohnM_inMN

        Unless Dore is telling the same lies he told in ‘21 and ‘22, I’d love to see a more recent takedown. A search yielded little, save a Sam Seder clip from ‘23. Interestingly, a majority of the comments I saw at the top supported Dore.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          He has not changed his position. Had you bothered listening to the video I posted, he had already had one video removed for violating YouTube policies on medical advice. It was not clear if he removed it or if YouTube removed it, but if YouTube, it takes very few strikes to get you permanently banned, which may explain his limited recent commentary on this topic.

          And the fact that there are Great Barrington Declaration fans and anti-vaxxers to pile on is no proof of the merit of his views. Twitter is a cesspool on this topic. You need to deal with the evidence in the video.

          1. Terry Flynn

            YouTube is indeed getting “strike happy”. Many obviously legit channels I watch are getting strikes on spurious grounds.

            It is symptomatic of something said repeatedly on here: if you don’t own the platform you don’t own your content. I put the most important stuff on my website, not someone else’s, unless I’m confident it’s “strike proof” (quoting maths etc).

          2. ChrisFromGA

            I only made it a few minutes in. The fellow taking down Dore argues that he distorts the report from the Singapore government, which had a vaccination rate of 80%. Dore left out parts of the report, taking others out of context, and even changed the words in part of it.

            I do not doubt that Dore is a shyster looking to ride the anti-vax bandwagon for more views and likes. But much about the whole thing still troubles me. I read over at Karl Denninger’s blog that as soon as the phase III trials were done, and Operation Warp Speed got clearance to begin vaccination of the general public, they gave the entire control group the vaccine. This was probably justified under some sort of emergency/humanitarion grounds, but it destroyed any chance of getting solid data on long-term side effects, because the control group was now no longer a control.

            This effectively nuked the study from low earth orbit in terms of tracking how the non-vaccinated participants developed disease vs. the vaccinated.

            I don’t think we’ll ever get to the truth. I hear anecdotes about cancer rates exploding, and the “thuds” seem to have disappeared from the media (being a Bills fan, Damar Hamlin was a notable one who recovered, thankfully, and is now playing football again.)

            There is one thing we do know – they lied to us about the vaccine being sterilizing. It only improves outcomes, but doesn’t prevent you from getting COVID, as I can attest to having gotten COVID three months after receiving the one-and-done J&J vaccine in September 2021.

            1. Yves Smith Post author

              The problem is:

              1. It was a shitty vaccine

              2. It was oversold

              3. There was not enough concern about vaccine injuries, some of which were serious. Due to the intensity of #2, that data was suppressed, now resulting in ignorance re what is a vaccine injury v. a Covid effect. Even though Covid effects almost certainly predominate, it allows anti-vaxxers to accuse the vax and deny Covid long-term damage

              4. Even with 1-3, the vaccines still did save a lot of lives in the wild type phase.

              5. But they probably became a net negative by 3-4 vaccination cycles due to negative efficacy after ~3 months, at least for mRNA vaccines, and by Omicron, to not being for the current variant.

              6. But #2 also led to a weird campaign to suppress other defenses, particularly masks, so now we are in lots of chronically sick people and a “‘Tis a mystery!” terrain.

              1. ChrisFromGA

                Thanks for the reply. I agree that “thuds” were due to some mix of vaccine injury and the effect of the spike protein itself, from COVID effects. The exact ratio is unknown. Nothing is provable because the authorities didn’t want it to be.

                The anti-maskers drove me crazy, because such a simple precaution may not be effective but it doesn’t cost you anything, other than “muh freedom!”

                And even better I can make an argument that masks increase privacy by defeating facial recognition software. So the tea-party types should have loved them.

                1. Kouros

                  N95s, properly fitted on the face offer great protection. Surgical masks not so much, and their purpose is different.

              2. Terry Flynn

                Exactly! At the risk of sounding like a suck-up, could you post this “officially”?

                As regulars know, I’m NOT a clinician but med stats, reading clinical papers (sometimes with help from clinician friends) is my thing.

                This all rings true from the literature. But it also rings true from me as someone battling Long COVID and decided to start documenting my struggles. I’m yet to get to what happened with the mRNA vaccines (and indeed I want to make sure I have the facts EXACTLY right) but this summary is right on the money given what we know so far. I just got banned from a meetup community for “threatening behaviour” – I suspect I’ll have the last laugh because they videoed and uploaded the session without permission – a violation of UK Law, which I’ve alerted the platform and police to. A woman was obviously severely distressed to be videoed – maybe she was staying below the radar of an abusive spouse? Dunno. But I never make accusations unless backed up by cast-iron data or the law. This COVID stuff is closest to that definition that I’ve seen so far.

                1. Terry Flynn

                  PS Yves I HATE being “that guy” who is close to asking for homework. I’d merely ask that you or the COVID brain trust could post a single source for everything we know so far.

                  To be so cognitively impaired when that was my career makes me feel awful. I HATE what Covid has done to me and regularly second guess what I post here and elsewhere.

                  I don’t look for sympathy, but if you’re able to post a “quick and dirty” summary in conjunction with people like KLG and IM Doc I for one would love it. Sorry to be such a downer. The Long Covid has struck me hard :( I feel very down.

                  1. Yves Smith Post author

                    That’s impossible because so much of what is supposedly known is contested. The data is terrible on Covid cases (due to the use of at home kits and no reporting), on Covid vaccine injuries (as discussed) and damage from Covid (because so wide-ranging and much of what we think we know is based on small scale studies).

              3. Yeti

                Yves, here is my letter to Dr. Bonnie Henry in 2022. I received no reply but did get an answer from our Health Minister’s office concerning excess deaths. Basically their answer was whitewash.

                Dr. Henry, I have written to you before and received no response. I am very concerned about your current and past statements on the mRNA vaccines as noted in my previous letters to you. As early as December 24, 2020 just days after the Covid-19 vaccination rollout you were aware of potential AEFI’s as indicated by your January 5, 2021 email to Shannon McDonald. In February 2021 Monika Naus emailed you saying “We are receiving an increasing number of reports unfamiliar to health care professionals accustomed to local reactions after vaccines, of unusual local reactions following the Moderna vaccine, in which there may | be an initial
                local reaction (pain, redness and swelling at the injection site), which resolves over a few days, and then returns
                around days 8-10 after vaccine receipt and may be accompanied by an unusual appearing area of ringed erythema
                as well as pruritus.” Yet you were on TV everyday touting the “safe and effective” vaccine for everyone. On April 7, 2021 Dr. Hoffe had already noticed what some of your staff were saying about AEFI’s. He wrote you asking for guidance on how to treat these reactions and what was your response? On April 8th, the very next day you emailed Monika Haus and were already considering reporting Dr. Hoffe to the CPSBC. Why? Was it so the college could warn their members to be on the watch for these AEFI events following vaccination? No, it appears your concern was more about how to silence Dr. Hoffe. If fact on April 29, three weeks later your actions led to Dr. Hoffe losing his rights to work in the Lytton hospital in order to silence him and his legitimate concerns. How many other doctors shared their concerns with you? How many doctors stayed silent betraying their oath to do no harm? In fact I wrote you on June 15, 2021 expressing my concerns on this vaccination platform and told you about my daughter’s experience with the vaccine. She did not have a period for a year following her vaccination and was actively trying to have a second child. She did finally get pregnant in summer of 2022 only to have a miscarriage in October. Her husband ended up in ER after his second dose. This seems to be a common occurrence in vaccinated women. If you care to read the available data from Pfizer’s trials you will see they knew of these effects.
                I’m sure you must be aware that excess deaths have increased 16% above 2017-19 average. Does this not concern you? The BCCDC confirmed my data, in fact 2022 was worse than I thought rising to 880 deaths per 100,000 British Columbians compared to a average 760/100,000 for the three years pre Covid-19. My question to you is what is causing these excess deaths? Is it a result of our interventions to prevent Covid-19? If so which ones. The year 2022 was the highest rate of excess deaths in the last 12 years. It appears that 2023 may be as bad or worse. I will provide you with some links so that you can inform yourself on these issues. If I happen to be wrong in my conclusions please let me know what I have wrong, preferably with hard data.

          3. Geo

            Dore has also been on a “climate change is a hoax perpetuated by billionaires” campaign for a while now too. It’s one thing to be wrong on some things but Dore has taken his anti-science stance to a pretty extreme level.

            On a somewhat related subject: Anyone know why mediocre comedians with podcasts are the go-to source for news and opinions now days? Rogan, Dore, Dave Smith, Theo Von, etc.

            When did we decide that being kinda funny makes them wise sages? Is it just a modern incarnation of talk radio when Limbaugh, Savage, and all those blowhards dominated the scene? Was it post-Stewart Daily Show refugees seeking out entertaining news shows and settling for these guys? A hybrid of the two?

            Just strange that listening to moderately funny dudes ranting for a few hours about subjects they barely comprehend has become the dominate source of news for our society.

            Maybe we should do a fundraiser for NC to hire a comedian to do a podcast based on the posts here so this valuable source of news might reach a mass audience?

            1. ambrit

              I would frame this another way. What has happened to the MSM so that it has lost all credibility with the overwhelming portion of the public? My best guess is that the propaganda has become obvious to most people today. Whether that is the result of the dumbing down of the Propaganda class, or the increased cognitive capacity of the generality of the Public I will leave to others to figure out.
              Your premise meshes nicely with the observation that our top political office is now filled with a moderately successful “Reality Show Host.” All I can think of here is that we may never today see any examples of political discourse to rival the Lincoln-Douglas debates.
              Stay safe.

              1. Geo

                Good points.

                As someone who still has a few old “Free Press” ‘zines on my bookshelf as a reminder of the pre-internet alternative media I don’t think the MSM has gotten worse but that counter narratives have become easier to find. Those old zines are filled with articles on the Iran-Contras, FBI bring crack into the inner cities, chemtrails, and other conspiracies of varying degrees of accuracy.

                Those of us who questioned the mainstream narratives used to be fringe kooks. Now days most people I know, people who barely even paid attention to the news prior to Trump and Covid, think the Clintons drink infant blood or that Trump was a Russian spy in the 80’s. It’s odd finding myself – a one time fringe kook – being the one to try and talk people off their wild conspiracy beliefs now days!

                So, I don’t think it’s what the MSM has done. They do what they’ve always done. Alternative news also does what it’s always done but due to the internet and algorithms that reward outrage we’ve got a society with very little media literacy (or critical thinking skills) navigating a labyrinth of info and latching on to whichever one best induces dopamine hits into their brain.

            3. hunkerdown

              Because we figured out politics is a lying contest and the sober patriarch posture is only valued by predatory liars. (POSIWID doesn’t care about idealism: if the system were intended to read, rather than write, the popular will, it wouldn’t be structured as it is.)

      3. Henry Moon Pie

        He’s just as much of an idiot on climate:

        1) Jimmy backs up Rogan, arguing that the Earth has been hotter.

        Jimmy quote from Jimmy’s transcript:

        We’re in a cooling phase. It’s been way
        hotter over the last 500 million years
        on Earth on average than it is right now.

        It’s a flat out lie that we’re in a “cooling phase.” Dore and Rogan were making misleading use of the graph scale. I guess it would be OK if we were all trilobites.

        2) Jimmy argues CO2 is good for the planet.. It’s making the plants grow.

        Jimmy quote from Jimmy’s transcript:

        I’m not crazy about models, you know. Their models is why they lock down everybody, and it was all made up. That model was funded by big Pharma, and that’s why we locked down everybody because of the models that were coming out of a university in uh in England. Well, so, so, I’m not crazy about this model stuff.

        3) Jimmy hosts Neil Oliver, a fellow who claims that BBC reporting of temperatures in the European heat wave were falsified.

        How long would Jimmy and his making shit up last on NC?

        1. Henry Moon Pie

          I will give Will Cain and Fox News some credit. I was just channel-surfing through the latest news about the New Mexico floods when I came across Will Cain of Fox News interviewing the poor Doricko fellow whose company had been hired to do some cloud seeding many miles away a couple of days before the hill country flood. Thanks to some of the YouTubes going around, this poor guy has been blamed by climate change deniers for the torrential rains that came days after he had done his work. Many death threats are the predictable result. Cain’s interview was fair. He asked most of the “just asking questions” questions that the YT flim-flammers are asking, and gave Doricko time to answer completely and thoroughly, which he did with calmness and facts.

          Between the YouTubers willing to draw clicks and cash with things that would make Alex Jones hesitate to the die-hard denialists that threaten to turn “Don’t Look Up” from a parody into a documentary, we are definitely in the stupidist timeline.

      4. ArvidMartensen

        I watched Dore from near the start of the pandemic. It strikes me that he wasn’t too bad at the start, but he found out that he was being lied to by all the people he probably used to trust.

        So imo he’s gone full the other way, debunking stuff which is actually true. Which sadly is a normal human reaction to being lied to by people you trust.
        But it has had the unfortunate effect of making his commentary ranting anti-science bs.

  9. MicaT

    Some corrections to oil price.
    PV surpassed 1TW in may 2025, and not just some 690GW as the article states. Not sure what the for year 2025, best estimates around 400GW more installs. That’s 10x what the us did in 2024.
    That’s not including wind and nuclear.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China

    As to coal, it seems to be that yes they are building new plants, most experts agree they are replacing older less efficient ones. They are also keeping some in reserve. As to coal use, some experts point to early 2025 as peak coal. Time will tell.

  10. farmboy

    Kevin Walmsley identifies the stupid tariff threats and the dumb and dumber approach are having very damaging effects on US farm exports. Grain farmers are getting hit hardest with sub 5$ corn coming at harvest lows. Indonesia did agree to buy $250 million of wheat every year for 5 years. It is likely this deal is window dressing with Australian wheat right next door. Farmers optimism is 100% self dealing, confirmation bias, they’ve all slurped down the koolaid. In the senate version of the budget bill an increase in reference prices for grains were added since a new farm bill won’t help this years crop revenue, but it won’t move the income needle at all.

    2. The Rev Kev

      An easy prediction here. Farming in the US is going to be chaotic over the next three and a half years. And think about this. When was the last time that Trump walked down a supermarket aisle checking out the price of fruit and vegetables while pushing a trolley? Has he ever? So what would he know about food production and prices. Sure he would be given reports, if he even reads them, but would he appreciate what would be behind those figures and what it means for farmers?

      1. tegnost

        Up in that gold foil and bauble encrusted castle in the sky in which our bettors scroll through their dining options all of the focus is on financial wiazardry and associated shenanigans partnered non platonically creating an inbred social dynamic of power as its own justification (its ok because we did it because if we did it its ok…)
        The notion that there is any material necessity would be such a burden to said castle in the sky that it may, heaven forfend!, lose significant elevation.Indeed, the only thought an elite gives to a physical commodity is whether or not one can contango with it…
        “Potatoes are delivered prewashed in a light lye solution in order to whiten them up sufficiently to not be offensive by an (editors note; lowly yet clean) castle in the sky dasher!” in a snappy self flying car with a large swoosh on its side because you know amazon is in on this hustle
        Buy it Now?
        “Wait! What do you mean when you say theres no potatoes? I ordered them, and I’m Prime!”

    3. Wukchumni

      Unfortunate Cookie saying:

      ‘Mother Nature is conspiring to not allow us to grow food via weather conditions, and on the other end the price is conspiring with us not to grow food because of market conditions.’

      Lucky numbers:

      13, 28, 31, 34, 44, 49

      1. ambrit

        “13, 28, 31, 34, 44, 49 price hike!”
        Hi sports fans! “Goldy” Blackrock just went long Ukrainian fertilizer stocks! The Head Honcho tossed him an easy five yards from in the pocket! But “Sonny” Weatherman just crushed him with a blitz play! Oh, the humanity!

        1. Wukchumni

          {breaks for a TV commercial during the 2027 Super Bowl}

          In a bucolic backyard scene, a few ex NFL stars are sitting down to watch the big game with a bowl of Greenbug brand edible insects (not all are-put your trust in Greenbug to know the difference!) at the ready, the claim being that as long as they’re slathered in ranch dressing, who’s gonna know the difference?

  11. The Rev Kev

    “Russia attacks Ukraine’s draft offices in effort to undermine armed forces”

    Yeah, ordinary Ukrainians will be crying into their beers about this happening. Those offices would be housing the Ukrainian snatch squads that have been kidnapping, beating up and then sending Ukrainian men the off to the front. Usually these are big beefy guys who you would think would make great material to be sent to the eastern front instead. There would be a lot of girls, wives, mothers, grandmothers and sisters in the Ukraine having a small celebration about this tonight. Just a day or so ago a mother indirectly died tying to stop those snatch squads take away her son in one of those vans-

    https://www.rt.com/russia/621201-report-woman-dies-trying-to-save-son-draft-officers-ukraine/

  12. Wukchumni

    Military operation in Los Angeles signals escalation of fascist methods WSWS
    ~~~~~~~~~~~

    Carmen Miranda warning:

    ‘You have the right to remain looking Hispanic. Anything you say can and will be used against you.’

    1. The Rev Kev

      How about the British version’?

      ‘Anything that you say will be taken down and held against you’

      ‘Knickers!’

    2. ambrit

      “Anything you say, and anything you see will be used against you.”
      “Hello Officer! Is that a drone in your pocket or are you happy to see me?”

  13. GramSci

    Re: Bill Browder and Magnitsky (op cit)

    Thanks for this. The clincher for me was Browder saying on camera, apparently testifying before Congress, that their lucrative company in backwoods Kalmykia employed over 50% handicapped employees.

    The most depressing part is that Congress bought this BS.

    1. Maxwell Johnston

      A fine summary by Lucy Komisar.

      Nekrasov’s movie (The Magnitsky Act) is excellent. Nekrasov is (or was?) a genuine Russian oppositionist. Not only did he openly accuse Putin of organizing the mysterious 1999 apartment bombings, but he can also be seen in photos at Litvinenko’s hospital bedside in 2006. Hence his mid-film Damascene conversion (his realization that Browder is lying) has credibility.

      Komisar mentions Browder’s connection to two shady transnational Jewish oligarchs who both died mysteriously (Maxwell and Safra), but there’s a third! Edouard Stern, snuffed out (supposedly) by his mistress in his Geneva apartment (he was wearing a latex bodysuit but I’ll skip the other prurient details) on the evening of 28 February 2005. And who had a morning meeting scheduled with Stern at 1100 on 1 March 2005? Oui oui, Monsieur Browder!

      https://archive.vanityfair.com/article/share/04586056-f798-47e8-860f-b1fc79512629?inline

      You cannot make this stuff up.

  14. Tom67

    About the Texas floods: I can readily imagine that cloud seeding was the cause of the disaster.1976 I was part of a Sierra Club kids hiking group in Kings Canyon California when they seeded the clouds. We had catastrophic rains and some of us barely survived.

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      *Sigh*

      Please read the stories rather than Making Shit Up. Conspiracy theory speculation discredits the site.

      The humidity was off the charts high and that was a big contributing factor.

      1. Tom67

        I certainly didn´t say that cloud seeding was the cause. Only that I could imagine it. I was a kid at the time and remember that the older ones said they believed the cause of the incredible downpour plus thunderstorm was cloud seeding. I have no idea where they got that from but it stayed in my head. Some of us who were on some hike came back in the middle of the night and were put two to a sleeping bag. The tent that I was sharing with my friend was also nearly swept away.

      1. Geo

        Thanks for this link. Good to read a rational and sourced piece on FB. It’s rare! For those that don’t have Facebook here’s the final takeaway:

        “At the end of the day, this flood was caused by the remnants of two tropical weather systems that cannot be created nor controlled by mankind, despite claims to the contrary. I mean, look at this rainfall map. That’s a year’s worth of rain in some communities that fell in 5 days over a geographic area bigger than many states in our country. Does it make sense to you that dropping a few grams of silver iodide into a cloud 150 miles away from the hardest hit communities two days before the flood even occurred could have caused this?

        It’s been said before that extraordinary claims you encounter can be true, but you should demand extraordinary evidence to back them up.”

  15. The Rev Kev

    “Dependence on China’s minerals blocks Indian ‘strategic autonomy’ ”

    ‘India imports 100% of its lithium, cobalt, nickel, vanadium, niobium, germanium, rhenium, beryllium, tantalum and strontium’

    And this I do not understand. This being the case here, you would think that India would play it straight as they are so dependent on China and would jealously protect the supply chains here. That it would be a strategic imperative not to screw that relationship up but be open with China. And yet a day or so ago we had a story of about 20 Indian companies that were busted trying to buy rare earths from China using some dodgy licenses and then wanting to ship that stuff to the US and the rest of the west without the Chinese knowing about it. How stupid and short-sighted was that?

    1. The Rev Kev

      I’m afraid that that link of yours no longer works. I don’t know about Brennan but I don’t think that old Joe gave Comey a pardon at all

      2. pjay

        Here’s one that does:

        https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fbi-launches-criminal-investigations-of-john-brennan-james-comey-doj-sources/ar-AA1IdFe9?ocid=BingNewsSerp

        There is no reason to believe anything will come of this though. It never does – ever. At most it would just result in partisan limited hangout name-calling, Benghazi style, framing Russiagate as simply a political dirty tricks campaign by the “Democrats” against Trump. The minor scapegoats have already been “punished” – with wrist-slaps. Brennan and Comey will never face any real scrutiny for their real crimes, let alone Hillary or Obama. They never do – ever.

        I’m sure the Trump DOJ will soon reveal the truth about the Epstein files though … oh wait.

        1. Screwball

          The Epstein coverup… Today we read Biden’s doctor took the fifth. Another coverup?

          These people are so disgusting – all of them. Our government is nothing but grifters liars thieves and con men/women. Yet people hate each other over which ones they worship and hate.

          They should hate them all. 535 random names from a phone book would be an improvement. If it is this ugly now, imagine how much uglier it will get?

    2. nycTerrierist

      Aaron Mate is finishing a book on Russiagate — as readers here may know –

      promises to be explosive, and hard to dismiss his first-rate work

        1. pjay

          I posted my comment above before I saw yours. Thanks for the link to this excellent summary by Aaron Mate, which makes my point much better than I could myself. Despite the current DOJ “investigation” of Comey and Brennan (which Aaron notes in an update), I stand by my assertion that nothing beyond the usual partisan kayfabe will come of it.

  17. Kurtismayfield

    RE: AI and the teachers union

    Yes, they want us to instruct students on “responsible AI usage” in our classroom. This is just a way to legitimize AI in our students eyes, and they will then continue to use it as a shortcut. The only responsible thing I can teach my students is to not trust AI and to think and argue for themselves.

    1. Bsn

      So ol’ school, but I love it. When I taught public school, I was strict about no cell phones in class. Admin was on my case about it but nothing in the contract said I MUST allow them. Now, California s tempting to band them in the classroom. The classroom is intended for learning and sharing, not video games and porn.

      1. Kurtismayfield

        All of the states are going to ban them, but what matters is enforcement. If the enforcement is as weak as attendance policies, then it doesn’t matter.

  18. The Rev Kev

    “Riyadh realigns: Tehran over Tel Aviv”

    So what changed? Iran won, that’s what. They hammered Israel so bad that they had to run to the Don to make them stop. The aerial defenses of the US, Israel Jordan, the UK and god knows how many other countries could not stop Iranian ballistic missiles from hitting their targets with impressive accuracy. More important, Iran stood united and did not do a Syria. Even Iran’s internal political critics sided with the government. And in doing so demonstrated how vulnerable Israel is.

    And the role of Grossi’s inspectors would have been noticed in Saudi Arabia too. They are trying to get a deal with Trump for nuclear power plants. But doing so would involve the AIEA and not it is hard to see that that group works for the Mossad, CIA and MI6 who would do the same for Saudi Arabia that they had for Iran. In any case, the Saudis and the Gulf States know that they can do commercial business with Iran but with Israel & the US, all those countries can do is run around and set countries on fire or try to cripple them with tariffs.

    1. Revenant

      There’s something else going on here that The Cradle misses. Turkey.

      Turkey claims to be the heir to Ottoman hegemony and a pan-Turkic role. In Ottoman times, Saudi Arabia was a mere fiefdom. Mecca and Mediba and the Nejaz were under the protection of the Hashemite Kingdom within the Ottoman Empire.

      Post WW2, Saudi Arabia has used IRS wealth to.spread its version of Islam and play a major role in the Islamic world.

      Israel is enabling Turkish ambitions, to suit its own agenda (see Syria, Azerbaijan, war on Iran, disruption of BRICS, possible disruption of Jordan).

      So, KSA has Turkey and Israel undermining its role of leadership and destabilising its neighbourhood. Against this, Iran looks reliable and an opportunity for a stable duopoly to rule the Gulf and Caucuses and disrupt Turkish ambition. Plus Iranian and Yemeni targeting of Israeli shipping makes Israel a dead letter for KSA pipeline exports (and using Turkey as a transit hub is unthinkable, too much leverage conceded). So KSA needs peace in the Gulf and the Caspian for its oil exports.

      The war in the Ukraine may be WW1 with modern weapons, tactically, but it is the Crimean war and Great Game strategically….

    2. ArvidMartensen

      After all the skullduggery going around in that region, I wouldn’t believe this necessarily.
      It was perhaps Wilkerson who said that treachery in that region is a national sport, or words to that effect.

  19. Wukchumni

    Hades & the Hades not… dept:

    Jesus H. Christ on a cracker~ those are some cray cray temps & photos of K-2, go tell it on the mountain climate change is here.

    Our melting out world displayed on our screens as we look on in dismay, nobody really making any effort to get ready for the new weather normal, we only react after the fact.

    1. Geo

      Yeah. The Iraq War years ruined my trust in news. Fortunately this was during the infancy of blogs and there were some good places to turn (as well as foreign press). Was a useful time to develop critical thinking skills since hyperlinks and sourcing was common (one reason I love NC’s old school format).

      For those who fell out with mainstream news during Covid I pity them for the media ecosystem they fled to of social media and video podcasts where there is no sourcing (links to outside sites are buried by the algorithms) and sensationalism + outrage = attention.

      My big worry is that for all the faults of traditional media we still rely a lot on their reporting. Who else spends the money needed to have journalists around the globe? We may not like them but about half the links here every day are to places like BBC, The Guardian, NY Times, etc. They still do real journalism.

      Citizen journalism is useful but just as easily biased. Few of the popular YouTubers and podcasters invest in actual journalists. Some of the upstarts over the years have relied on “friendly billionaires” but more often those become Turning Points USA type propaganda outfits rather than The Intercept. And far too many of the journalists who’ve gone independent thru Substack or Medium seem to have gotten too audience captured. Taibbi is the main one that comes to mind (he’s 90% cultural grievance, 10% journalist now days) but most are in my opinion. And it makes sense since their income is based on keeping subscribers.

      Long way of asking: if traditional media outlets continue to fail will there be any real journalism left or will we go back to the old ways where the masses just listened to dudes on soap boxes yelling their take on the gossip they heard?

      1. Jason Boxman

        I follow the NY Times because that’s the PMC wisdom, it’s what the Establishment Thinks and what they consider to be news worthy, and you have an opportunity to notice what key aspects are missing from the reporting, either entire stories simply missing, or key facts omitted.

        You’ll notice we hear little about H5N1 these days.

    2. Lefty Godot

      The Times and the Washington Post seem to be reliable stenographers for the State Department and CIA on all foreign issues, and mouthpieces for the upper level professional managerial class on anything domestic. They haven’t had credibility in multiple decades, other than among the PMC and more generally perhaps in academia. But where can you turn for honest and unbiased news? Nowhere in this country, it seems. Fox and MSNBC don’t even pretend to hide their slanted, outrage-focused presentation, and the same goes for OANN, Newsmax, and CNN. AP and Reuters are mostly just repeating whatever press release corporate and government spokespersons hand them. And in the UK, BBC, the Guardian, and the Independent are little better (and probably worse for UK specific stories). Even Wikipedia seems to present the CIA’s version of all recent foreign affairs subjects. The whole arena of news reporting has turned into the latest version of “57 Channels and Nothing’s On”.

  22. The Rev Kev

    ’Muhammad Shehada
    @muhammadshehad2
    10 soldiers took turns to rape their victim on camera until they exploded his intestines & raptured his rectum. Gov leaders, MPs, religious leaders… all praised the rapists. National TVs hosted the rapists. The public overwhelmingly supported the rapists.’

    And while this is all going on in Israel, they are reviving the sexual assaults stories from October 7th-

    “New Israeli report says Hamas used sexual violence as a ‘weapon of war’ in Oct. 7 attack”

    https://www.nbcnews.com/world/israel/hamas-israel-sexual-violence-rape-war-oct-7-rcna217401

    Saw this group of Israeli women on the news tonight pushing this story, even though it was disproved long ago. But as been said, ‘It’s OK when we do it.’

  23. Carolinian

    That Martin Wolf interview is full of interesting talking points. Example:

    First, this is not the first time a country has had a stock market value wildly out of line with its share of global GDP. The last major case was Japan in the 1980s. There was a period—I’m quite sure of this, though I can’t recall the exact years—when the Japanese stock market was more valuable than the American stock market. I remember noting that at the time. There was a lot of discussion about how this couldn’t possibly be sustainable. That was also the period of the famous claim that the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than all of California. And if you calculated it based on land prices in central Tokyo, that was true. It was the most famous bubble statistic in my lifetime. As economists, we said, this is nuts. This is the biggest bubble in human history—something has to give. And we know what gave: the stock market collapsed, land prices collapsed, and Japan entered essentially a 20-year deflation. I’m not saying that will happen here, but it’s a reminder that the relative value of stock markets can become completely unmoored during huge bull markets.

    The more economically inclined will have to comment on the specifics of their analysis but for those of us who think this country’s elites are living in a dream world there’s plenty of ammo. In all the talk about TINA and the uniparty and our bought and paid for politics there’s one class war weapon against the wealthy that stands out: take away their money. If they do it to themselves then what happens next?

    1. GF

      This country’s elite also have the money to keep the stock market propped up for as long as needed. Then it’s off to cryptoland.

    2. James Payette

      I would advise you to read “The Princes of Yen” by Richard Werner or watch the documentary of the same name based on the same ideas. Werners’ explanation of the role of credit manipulation by central banks is illuminating. The bubble you described was directly attributable to the Central Bank of Japan policies.

  24. tegnost

    mounk…
    Democrats have this coalition of very wealthy, well-to-do people but still feel, in some way, like the natural thing to do—within limits —is to actually serve the interests of working-class voters who no longer really vote for them.

    We’ll give you an increment… but only one!
    We have two right wing republican parties.

  25. Muncahusen

    Imposter used AI to pose as Marco Rubio and contact foreign ministers BBC. Perhaps this will lead to laws against faking voices?

    Vovan and Lexus don’t need to fake voices. Everyone believes that they are Poroshenko, including those that have met Poroshenko in person.

    1. hunkerdown

      Israel went deep for generative AI propaganda as soon as the product was good enough. All revolutionary software gets burned like this.

  26. The Rev Kev

    “Trump’s Schizophrenia Cannot Hide the US Lack of Strategic Depth”

    The Great God of Logistics has spoken here and mighty will be his wrath against the west. And when he lets his displeasure be known with America’s efforts in industrial military production, he will force them to utter the word of surrender – ‘Bingo!’

    I think that Larry Johnson admitted in a video to voting for Trump and if so, he regrets it for all the chaos being sewn across the board. A lot of people with a conservative bent like the guys at The Duran are saying that Trump is just nuts and his opinions vary from day to day with no consistency. And there is still three and a half more years to go.

    1. nyleta

      Looks like the Eternity C had something important on board, unusual US military activity in the Middle East reported and the Israeli PM staying in Washington. Maybe the marines finally get their chance in Yemen, everyone else has had a go. Or could be Iran round 2.

  27. jsn

    “Imposter used AI to pose as Marco Rubio and contact foreign ministers BBC. Perhaps this will lead to laws against faking voices?”

    Perhaps improving US foreign policy?

  28. mahna

    dog’s cry for help
    — Enezator (@Enezator) July 7, 2025

    That looks like very low-effort setup, in spite of the “steadicam” operator trying way too hard.

    1. mrsyk

      I got that feeling as well, but the excellent pupper and helping cats more than make up for it.

  29. ThirtyOne

    Japan now taking apart this idiotic, disrespectful 極道っぽいWhite House letter to Tokyo

    from a Japanese Xweet: (google translation)
    Dance Zance
    @rosymatildance
    16h
    Idiotic, disrespectful. What a list of yakuza-like adjectives. Thank you for the red ink.

  33. Expat2uruguay

    I arrived in Columbia yesterday, and staying in the same hotel with me is a guy from Ukraine. Actually has dual citizenship in the US and Ukraine, where he has been a military asset for both countries. He’s about 60 years old and he was serving in Ukraine 6 months ago. He says all his friends are dead and the grandmothers are very angry to see the all the young people dying. Anyway, I will be here for 10 days so if anyone has questions, I can ask him…

    1. Skeptical Scott

      Ask him if he thinks the war is already lost, and what the final outcome will be?
      I’m curious if he thinks Ukraine will survive as a country.

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      Oh, wow!

      Ask him

      1, What did he see during his time in service that surprised him the most?

      2. It’s been said in the US press that the US was calling the shots. Did he see any signs of that?

      3. What would happen if Russia gets all the way to the Polish border? Do they have any way to manage the Western part of Ukraine that could placate the public? Like a rump state with autonomy provided it is nice to Russians and Russia and has no real military>

    3. Daniil Adamov

      I’d be curious to know what he has to say about desertion on the Ukrainian side. It’s reported every so often and I’m sure it happens, but it’s hard to tell how widespread it actually is.

    4. AG

      1) What do people think on the ground military/civilians?
      (In comparison e.g. to how NC´s majority seems to feel)
      What is the reality beyond those 1,3M killed and wounded (at least according to RU MoD numbers.)

      2) Foreign soldiers´ involvement?

      1. AG

        On the issue of forced conscription.

        (Do we have info on the existence/extent of forced conscription in RU?)

    5. GramSci

      Ask him what he’s doing in Columbia….or maybe you shouldn’t. It could be, er, ‘impolitic’.

  35. AG

    re: freedom of speech

    sorry of this is a duplicate

    WALL STREET JOURNAL

    Europe’s Crackdown on Speech Goes Far and Wide
    Loosely defined hate-speech laws and the rise of social media have led to zealous policing
    July 7, 2025
    https://archive.ph/MoZK2

  36. IM Doc

    This article just came out in Politico this AM.

    The meat of the article is contained in the first few paragraphs……

    O’Connor Wednesday morning asserted doctor-patient privilege and his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, according to a statement from his attorneys. He had repeatedly argued his duties as a doctor complicated his ability to testify under oath about his patient, preventing him from sharing some sensitive information.

    “On the advice of his legal counsel, Dr. O’Connor refused to answer questions that invaded the well-established legal privilege that protects confidential matters between physicians and their patients,” the statement read. “His assertion of his right under the Fifth Amendment to decline to answer questions, also on the advice of his lawyers, was made necessary by the unique circumstances of this deposition.

    For much of my later career, I have worked constantly with attorneys working on malpractice cases. I mainly advise and do research, I rarely testify. However, I assiduously follow up on every single one.

    It is commonplace for physicians to plead doctor/patient confidentiality in these type of cases. That can be breached, but even then only carefully, if the patient has waived the right. Again, this type of thing happens quite often.

    What is extraordinarily rare however, is a physician pleading the Fifth. Now, that is out there. These medical cases are just simply not criminal type issues. I have not one time in my life ever even had this brought up by attorneys as even an option out of hundreds and hundreds of situations I have reviewed. I can think of only 2 times in the entire country in the past decade or so where this has become part of the case (I had nothing to do with either) and I distinctly remember in both how the coverage pointed out how rare the criminal slant was. The two issues are the Dr. Death neurosurgeon in Dallas who was convicted of murder – and the Dr. Nasser/child molesting issues with the Olympic gymnasts. When this rise to criminality does occur in medical matters, it is almost always a sexual misconduct issue like Dr. Nasser or drug related issues.

    This pleading the 5th is just extraordinary, and it does make me wonder what is going on.

    1. Carolinian

      So it seems likely that our previous president and his doctor were breaking all the rules in private while our current president does it in public and dares anybody to object. What a world.

      Of course I believe Woodrow Wilson’s disability via stroke was kept secret but then Wilson was the template for breaking rules in so many ways. Maybe it’s all just a phase (we hope).

  38. Skeptical Scott

    This is a short summary of the motivation for AI. It, like crypto, is clearly the next big grift. The IT industry is out of “technological advancements,” and instead they’ve come up with another form of fascism that they can foist on the masses. Like Uber and AirB&B, it’s just another way to avoid regulations, and break laws in the name of $$$.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUfSl2fZ_E8

  39. ChrisFromGA

    It’s official. MAGA is now the party of war and Epstein. Unless Musk can save MAGA by forming a third party and finally deal a mortal wound to the uniparty. AG Pam Bondi can’t even keep her story straight, like one of those suspects in a crime show. She already testified that she had the Epstein list, and now tries to recant that.

    Frisk me, Pam

    Sing to the tune of, “Whiskey Man” by Molly Hatchet

    Yeah! Straight at you, baby

    Hey frisk me Pam, you’re running as hard as you can
    The press is asking, too, much more than you can stand
    You have your highs, you have your lows
    Nobody knows which way you go

    Chorus:

    Frisk me Pam, don’t you hide that list, down low
    Frisk me Pam, don’t you play them MAGA schmoes

    It takes chutzpah to hide scofflaws
    You took an oath to uphold the law
    You start to get straight, then you get weak
    Can’t you see you’re on a losing streak
    You have your highs, you have your lows
    Nobody knows which way you’ll go

    Frisk me Pam, don’t you play them MAGA schmoes!
    Frisk me Pam, don’t you play them MAGA schmoes!

    Ah, drink it up baby!

    [Guitar solo]

    Hey don’t you know
    I used to be there myself
    I tried to change my story, baby, with no attorney’s help
    I have my highs, I have my lows
    But nobody knows which way I’ll go

    Frisk me Pam, don’t you play them MAGA schmoes!
    Frisk me Pam, don’t you play them MAGA schmoes!
    Frisk me Pam, don’t you play them MAGA schmoes!
    Frisk me Pam, don’t you play them MAGA schmoes!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkXxtN3Yh10&list=RD3_Ayrc7RqjA&index=2

    2. mrsyk

      Nice. I saw that band back in ‘80. They opened for the Outlaws. That was a good time.

  40. Wukchumni

    Trump says August 1 tariff deadline is firm, hours after saying it wasn’t Axios
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Things have come to a primrose pass
    Our trading stance is growing flat
    For you like this and a similar letter to the others
    While I go for this and that

    Goodness knows what the end will be
    Oh I don’t know where I’m at
    It looks as if my tariffist work will never be done
    Something must be an astounding sum

    You say either and I say neither
    You say neither and I say either
    Either, either Neither, neither
    Let’s call the whole thing off

    You like retaliation and I like to be reptilian
    You like free trade and I like free TRAIT
    Retaliation, Reptilian, Trade, TRAIT
    Let’s call the whole thing off

  41. Jason Boxman

    From Weedkiller ingredient widely used in US can damage organs and gut bacteria, research shows

    “Other countries have banned diquat, but in the US we’re still fighting the fights that Europe won 20 years ago,” Donley said. “It hasn’t gotten to the radar of most groups and that really says a lot about the sad and sorry state of pesticides in the US.”

    Some advocates have accused the EPA of being captured by industry, and Donley said US pesticide laws were so weak that it was difficult for the agency to ban ingredients, even if the will exists. For example, the agency banned chlorpyrifos in 2022, but a court overturned the decision after industry sued.

    Moreover, the EPA’s pesticides office seems to have a philosophy that states that toxic pesticides are a “necessary evil”, Donley said.

    “When you approach an issue from that lens there’s only so much you will do,” he said.

    America really is a failed state. Executives at Bayer are likely laughing about how much more toxic this is, and perhaps that’ll teach citizens a lesson that the beating shall continue until you accept your station in life: Wallets to be milked until death.

    1. Kouros

      It is the same story posted today in Links under Sam Husseini.

      Quite long and exeedingly interesting, for me. I am fascinated by court dramas and legal debates and when I have a chance I read arguments.

      This article is confirmation bias for me, since I am convinced that no amount of arguments will sway a judge from a set path Murray comes here with physical evidence that the judges’ decissions were in fact ready and written beforehand.

      And all is a sharade in which the judge has the last word, and says yes, but and this is what I think and decide.

      Reminds me on that article in the Current Affairs, Death to the Economist
      https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/2017/05/how-the-economist-thinks

      Chilling times for the brits.

  43. amfortas

    mold woke me at 2;30 am.
    so i made coffee out here at te bar, and migrated on out.
    began working by 4am, snowshoveling te now wet and stinking mess of clothes and paper the boys left me when they went into feedsacks and hauling them out.
    youngest did come out and help me haul out Tam’s couch and chair, where she spent er last 3.5 years…didnt expect that to effect me thataway….
    obtained a brand new pump hand sprayer…with a wand, and all…and a gallon of pinesol.
    i’ll go around everywhere inside and spray everyting, even in te nooks and crannies…and dog and cat and i will stay in mom’s front room…which i havent set foot in since it was my home for hospice(Tam did hospice in the big fireplace room just across the hall, and died there…i dont enter that room)
    good thing is that mom is in galveston with brother and his golden horde.
    so ive got til saturday to get my house livable and kill the mold, at the very least.
    raining, again…light, so far,,expect it to cease soon…finally!
    humid as hell out here…like Houma, or Evangeline.
    said again to my son, “member when it was hot and dry out here?…”
    ive worked pretty much nonstop since early…altho wit frequent breaks.
    and a 2 our lunch/siesta(but no nap) sufficient to eat, smoke a hogleg and keep wandering into te dirt road(still tore up) in case tat ups chick happens by.
    NWS San Angelo sez mostly hot and dry for a few days…so i can spray the pinesol with teh windows open and all te myriad fans blowing and leave it for a day or more.
    decompressing wit Johnny Hodges Daydream( te slow version i cant find on youtube anymore)
    as always, too much work, not enough body.
    (and yes, my H is damaged, again)

    1. skippy

      Best and fastest way to sort mold is a mix of chlorine at ratio of 1 to 4 parts water and sugar soap. We do this all the time at work for effected interior and all exteriors before painting. For the most stubborn repeat application.

      BTW I was pondering if you had to deploy the outrigger pontoons on the wilderness bar, floating down stream bringing halp, tunes, libations, and reading materials for others till the waters receded.

  44. mrsyk

    It’s been rather humid here as well. To keep that mold off you know you gotta oil that wood.

    I was going to suggest pacing yourself, but then I started thinking dying in the yard is looking more attractive these days.

  45. hunkerdown

    The “China’s Art of War” tweet thread is interesting, but the user posts a lot of AI slop and I had to take a break for a minute. As a little tangent, Qwen models top the “not just x but y” slop leaderboard that some reddit wag put together. I will admit “It doesn’t just watch the enemy—it enters their minds.” is a cute phrase. DeepSeek models are much better at avoiding at least these LLM clichés.

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