Among firearms pastimes, plinking, casual shooting at cans, offers a useful analogy for the Trump administration’s growing military activity in Latin America. I will describe the likely reasons for this political development and some possible consequences.
The Political Fungibility of U.S. Military Violence
Trump is not known for deep policy expertise, but his political instincts are sharp, and he has shrewdly determined that his base does not discriminate among the targets of U.S. military attacks. Many of Trump’s political supporters take pleasure in seeing violence inflicted on any “enemies” of the U.S. Trump’s understanding of the political fungibility of military violence partially explains his decision to use the U.S. military against Latin American countries.
Attacking non-state actors and/or weak regimes in Central and South America is a far less costly and risky undertaking than confronting peer-level, nuclear-armed adversaries like Russia and China. America’s imperial history is starting to run in reverse. Rather than continuing the global expansion begun in the Spanish-American war, it is now shrinking back to gunboat diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere. Trump has already begun military anti-drug operations in South America with a strike destroying a boat allegedly transporting drugs off the coast of Venezuela. Such activity will likely continue for the rest of his term.
Killing Narcos
Unleashing the U.S. military on narcotraficantes is an easy plinking exercise for Trump. The sheer number of targets and the relative immunity of U.S. forces engaging lightly armed personnel make it politically attractive. Trump is already staging F-35 attack aircraft and weaponry in Puerto Rico to support such a campaign. The drug trade can be attacked militarily at every point of fabrication and transportation. Assassination of drug cartel leaders is also likely. Videos of these strikes will be politically rewarding for Trump because his followers confuse the theater of violence with effective foreign policy.
. @POTUS “This morning, on my Orders, U.S. Military Forces conducted a SECOND Kinetic Strike against positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. The Strike occurred while these confirmed… pic.twitter.com/KQYiEpqsGb
— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) September 15, 2025
Even massive strikes won’t end the drug trade; poverty ensures an endless supply of recruits. Workers and couriers are easily replaceable, and gangs are quickly reconstituted after leaders are eliminated. Indeed, suppressing dominant drug cartels has historically increased violence because it triggers turf battles among the surviving gangs.
Seizing the Panama Canal
If Trump’s supporters tire of watching narcos die, the next level of military spectacle would likely be an invasion of Panama to seize the canal. This would be a quick rerun of the 1989 invasion. Panama has no ability to resist such an attack.
In December 1989, the United States launched Operation Just Cause, a swift military intervention to depose Panamanian leader Gen. Manuel Noriega. The U.S. cited four main reasons: safeguarding approximately 35,000 American citizens in Panama, defending democracy after Noriega annulled opposition election victories, combating his involvement in drug trafficking, and protecting the Panama Canal and associated treaties.
About 27,000 U.S. troops and 300 aircraft overwhelmed Panama’s forces in a week; Noriega surrendered after taking refuge in the Vatican Embassy. The invasion installed Guillermo Endara as Panama’s president; restored U.S. control over the Canal area’s security; and signaled Washington’s willingness to act decisively in its hemisphere. However, it drew international criticism for civilian casualties and was condemned by the United Nations General Assembly as a violation of international law.
Attacking Venezuela
The U.S. has sought to bring down the socialist regime in Venezuela through economic sanctions and clandestine means ever since Hugo Chavez came to power in 1998. Nicolas Maduro, Chavez’s successor, has weathered multiple U.S.-sponsored attempts to replace him, and it is possible that Trump may be able to justify a military invasion by depicting Venezuela as a haven for drug traffickers. Venezuela would be a much tougher challenge for military action because of its population (28 million), its diverse geography, and the size of its military.
Venezuela’s long coastline makes it vulnerable to naval blockade and amphibious invasion, but the interior of the country has rivers, mountains, and jungle regions that would be military obstacles. Venezuela’s large militia forces could mount a defense of densely populated urban areas. A determined insurgency could inflict casualties on occupying forces for many years. The casualty-averse U.S. public might turn against this war, as it has against prior military quagmires. The international political blowback from a U.S. invasion of Venezuela would be considerable. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru could become more hostile to the U.S. and shift their economic ties toward Europe and China.
The armed forces of Venezuela are far more numerous and better equipped than those of Panama. Although incapable of defeating U.S. invasion forces, they would be able to inflict significant casualties over months of fighting.
Venezuelan militia – millions serving
Although Trump is unlikely to mount a full-scale invasion of Venezuela, he may launch a series of attacks on Venezuelan military facilities to intimidate the government and precipitate regime change. Venezuela’s protests to the U.N. and the international community would likely be fruitless.
The Israeli Precedent
Israel’s repeated cross-border strikes have highlighted the U.N.’s inability to curb aggression by U.S.-backed states. Trump may expect similar impunity in Latin America. This means that much of Central and South America may become a free-fire zone for the U.S. military, with negative long-term consequences for the international standing of the U.S. Just as Israel faces growing political isolation because of its rogue state behavior, the U.S. will increasingly be viewed as a reckless and irresponsible player on the world stage.
An Ill Wind
Trump’s gratuitous violence toward Latin America is bad news, but if it diverts him from nuclear confrontation with Russia or China, it may be the lesser evil. Plinking narcos may bring a political boost to Trump, but a trigger-happy policy toward Latin America will leave another mess for his successors.
It’s unclear how many people will be fired for celebrating the death of Charlie Kirk. However, it’s evident that no one will be terminated for supporting the U.S. military’s unlawful killing of impoverished Venezuelans.
Of course the real reason Noriega was captured and jailed was to keep him quiet about the partnership he used to have as a US ally. There was plenty of talk at the time that he ran drugs with the complicity of the US. Funny how those trials were so hush hush that we never got to hear his defense. Funny.
If Trump really wanted to stop the flow of drugs into the US, maybe he should try blowing up some CIA vehicles.
Plink enough tincans and before long we’ll have a situation where every Venezuelan family will have a loved one who was killed, starting with the community of fishermen. And in the years to follow every Venezuelan will have a valid reason to hate the US.
I think this is an important issue, and I’m glad it’s getting some attention, but I don’t understand why you have to reblog their snuff film, which is what it is.
This is far less graphic than many images and vide clips we have shown of Israel commiting genocide so I am puzzled about the sensitivity. The video clearly shows this is a small boat full of people, as in almost certainly not a drug boat, since the operators would want to max out on cargo.
Gosh I would pile on the dead too any table, everyone too see – graphically – or we can go back to hilltop venues for the well-heeled in observing the sacking of a city – plunder it for financial betters …
Remember gulf war syndrome, deformed baby’s, both in ME&West, Huge PTSD dramas for Vets and families, productivity drain and then requiring more immigrants, do you see a pattern here – ????
Snuff film – rolls eyes in the face of decades of death in the name of profits ….
The invasion of Panama was an overt attempt to end the “Vietnam Syndrome” of public opposition to foreign adventurism. Bush one also had an image problem and one demonstrator against the invasion held up a sign:”OK, you’re not a wimp.”
This set the stage for Iraq one and Junior’s sequel after 9/11, which redeemed the famuly honor after Saddam pictured Dad in tiles on the lobby floor of Bagdad’s leading hotel. Dubya’s local minions would “shoe” their revenge by pelting Saddam’s statue with footwear before pulling it down. None of this was John Wayne material but one makes do.
> Although Trump is unlikely to mount a full-scale invasion of Venezuela, he may launch a series of attacks on Venezuelan military facilities to intimidate the government and precipitate regime change.
Decapitation strikes are very fashionable….I wonder if they’ll go directly at Maduro?
Trump is repeating the South Park Underwear Gnome scheme here-
Phase 1. Do a decapitation strike on the entire civil & military Maduro government.
Phase 2. ?
Phase 3. Venezuelans throw flowers at US military forces arriving and occupying Venezuela’s patrimony.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5ih_TQWqCA (1:36 mins)
Venezuela could hurt an invading US force more than the OP here reckons is my hunch.
It’s no more vulnerable than Cuba and while the oil offers more incentive to the US the latter will never pacify the population sufficiently to access it and ship it out.
I wonder how many drones Venezuela will have in a year…Russia, Iran and China could each supply a few hundred without breaking a sweat.
Which could prove awkward for the Hegemon.
The Mexican cartels have an effectively unlimited amount of money, if the US goes after their families they may well retaliate.
Keep in mind that they are bringing in cocaine in 20 Ton lots, bringing in RPG’s and drones would be easy.
They also have an effective intelligence network, necessary for smuggling.
Consider how Trump would react if they went after a dozen or two senior DEA and ICE bureaucrats and their families in retaliation ( The ones not already on their payroll).
An eye for an eye can spiral out of control swiftly.
It’s been a long time since the West could say “We have the Maxim gun and they have not” although our misleadership class has yet to understand that fact.
The modern equivalent would be “they make the Maxim gun and we do not.”
AI is the new Maxim gun, according to experts. :)
Apparently nobody here reads / views Larry Johnson at sonar 21.com
Those Venezuelan boats cannot have the range to reach Florida clear across what is now known as the Gulf of America (chest beating heart pounding salute the flag). So they’d have to refuel. Logistics enters the fray. Meanwhile, the real drug-running goes on by air, not that Donnie The Brain would deign to notice. He’s stuck in a time warp somewhere south of Dynasty, back in the Fonzarella era, with a hairstyle to match from even before that, the modified ducktail. Roar rant rave Emperor of the Known World. With any luck, Team USA will friendly fire on some CIA blaggards.
In Links, we have linked to Larry Johnson (or a tweet with similar information) on precisely this issue, the impossibility of that boat reaching the US. So I apologize for the lapse here.
I doubt Mexican cartels will get serious weaponry from Russia, China, or Iran: the former are criminals and long-term minded governments do not back criminals wantonly–they are liable to be far more trouble than they are worth after their enemies are dealt with. Only the holier-than-thou fanatics associate with criminals thinking their “holy aura” protects them even in the long run. There are two skyscrapers that say otherwise.
That level of war is people mate …
BTW if the U.S. can’t sort its own drug lords like the Sackler family backed by white shoe law firms … what chance do they have with a heavily armed/integrated networks like the Mexican Business men. I mean it just seems a bad case of income envy w/ a side of huge profit margins.
Seems the U.S. drug lords and financial income flow people are just besides themselves, how dare the brown cast down people – historically – have the nerve to live and profit better than them …. its just so wrong …
Probably true.
They’ll get the weapons from the Ukraine, like regular people do.
I know that this is kind of tinfoil hat, but I believe the purpose of the indiscriminate sinking of Venezuelan boats is to generate a response from Venezuela that would justify a US invasion.