Links 10/19/2025


NASA Scientist Proposes Theory of Alien Civilizations Throughout Milky Way Futurism

Markov Chains: The Strange Math That Predicts (Almost) Anything 3 Quarks Daily

How the Brain Moves From Waking Life to Sleep (and Back Again) Quanta Magazine

Rise in youth mortality fuelled by mental illness, drugs, violence and other preventable causes The Conversation

COVID-19/Pandemics

Pozniak: Are we really ready for next pandemic? Boston Herald

Pandemic fears grow amid alarming rise of variant in China Daily Mail

Climate/Environment

Sea Levels Rising Faster than at Any Time in 4,000 Years, Study Warns SciTech Daily

World’s landscapes may soon be ‘devoid of wild animals’, says nature photographer The Guardian

South of the Border

Is the US about to attack Venezuela? Vox

Mexican and U.S. Officials Don’t Think Trump Admin Will Conduct a Military Intervention in Mexico: Report The Latin Times

Treasury’s $20 Billion Swap with Argentina and the Complementary ESF Credit Facility VeriDelis substack

China?


China Seizes The Master’s Weapon As It Makes Itself The New Hegemon Ian Welsh blog

Nexperia China unit asserts its independence as tensions with the Netherlands run high Reuters

China Wins Its Largest Ever Fighter Export Deal: Pushing U.S., Russian and Korean Competition Out of Indonesia Military Watch magazine

The First 48 Hours of a War With China ‘Could Be Ugly’ National Security Journal

India

India cutting Russian oil imports by 50%? After Donald Trump, White House makes big claim; refiners await clarity The Times of India

“India Working On 2 nm Chip”: Ashwini Vaishnaw Shows ‘Wafer’ At NDTV Summit NDTV World

Africa

American Private Military Companies Are Poised to Become Major Players in Africa’s Security Landscape SOFREP

Gen Z protesters toppled Madagascar’s president. Should other African leaders worry? CNN

European Disunion

Europe and the US Are Drifting Apart and It Isn’t Just Because of Trump Jacobin

Is mandatory military service returning in Europe? Turkiye Today

Twenty countries pressure EU for more deportations to Afghanistan DPA International

Old Blighty

The new favourite bolthole for Britain’s wealth creators: They are being driven out by Labour’s ‘attack on hard work’… and finding happier and ‘more sophisticated’ alternative Daily Mail

Brexit impact on UK economy will be negative for foreseeable future, Bailey warns The Independent

Israel v. Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iran


Rebuilding Gaza will take ‘decades,’ cost $70B, experts say ABC News

Egypt expected to lead global stabilisation force in Gaza, say diplomats The Guardian

Israeli forces stage new incursion near Syria’s Quneitra Shafaq News

UN rapporteur says deadly Israel strikes on vehicles in Lebanon could be war crimes The New Arab

New Not-So-Cold War

Hungary for a Change (No Kings Update) Oliver Boyd Barrett substack

The Wizard of the Kremlin News Forensics substack

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant repairs begin in Ukraine as ceasefire zones set Al Jazeera

Ukraine’s Zelensky leaves D.C. without Tomahawk missiles he sought UPI

Big Brother Is Watching You Watch

Google’s Ambitious Privacy Sandbox Project Signals Its End Gizmodo

Quantum threat looming large to privacy Bizz Buzz

Imperial Collapse Watch

Ohio community frustrated over homeless encampment in cemetery News 5 Cleveland

Maryland Lawmaker Seeks Tougher Sentences for Fentanyl Dealers Amidst Climbing Overdose Deaths in Baltimore and Rural Counties Hoodline

Trump 2.0

Prosecutor Who Rejected Trump’s Pressure to Charge James Is Fired NY Times

When could the shutdown end? Five key dates to watch The Hill

US to repatriate survivors of strike on ‘drug-carrying submarine’, Trump says BBC

Protesters gather nationwide for ‘No Kings’ rallies opposing Trump administration Andolu Agency

Musk Matters

Key facts: Analyst questions Tesla’s valuation; ISS advises against Musk’s pay TradingView

Elon Musk is looking for 100,000 people to send to Mars zamin

SpaceX has big, destructive plans for its big rocket in Florida The Bradenton Times

Democrat Death Watch

Newt Gingrich sees nationwide shift to GOP as voters flee ‘crazy’ Democratic Party Fox News

Democrats Have Let Republicans Become the ‘Peace’ Party Common Dreams

Immigration

Trump’s immigration crackdown weighs heavy on the US labor market AP

Internal documents suggest Salesforce offered AI services to expand Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown Times of India

Judge orders federal immigration agents to use body cameras in Chicago The Spokesman-Review

Our No Longer Free Press

Former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Johnson Decries Trump Administration Curbs on Pentagon Press Insider NJ

Pentagon Press Exodus Erupts Over New Access Rules Grand Pinnacle Tribune

Mr. Market Is Moody

Fragility of the dollar system: balance sheets to blockchains Kraken blog

Smart Investor: AI Boom or Bubble, Stocks on a Tightrope, and Why the Market Could Get More Concentrated Morningstar

AI

Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there. Marcus on AI substack

How sexy should AI be? OpenAI is one of many companies hoping to cash in Euronews

Inside San Francisco’s new AI school: is this the future of US education? The Guardian

People are using AI to talk to God BBC

People Who Lost Their Jobs To AI Are Opening Up About Their Experiences, And It’s Genuinely Scary BuzzFeed

The Bezzle

South Koreans freed from Cambodian scam centres return home under arrest Al Jazeera

Myanmar scam cities booming despite crackdown – using Elon Musk’s Starlink AFP

Guillotine Watch

Antidote du jour (via)

Lioness and cub

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here

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24 comments

  1. Wukchumni

    Elon Musk is looking for 100,000 people to send to Mars zamin
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Take me home Elon!

    Let me back up a little, how was I to know that Mars Air would go bankrupt when I was on vacay on this nice little orb you’ve got, effectively stranding me here since.

    Needless to say i’ve been living off of mileage points for some time now and have gotten used to earthling ways, and to be honest the food is such much better here than on the red planet.

    Reply
  2. The Rev Kev

    “American Private Military Companies Are Poised to Become Major Players in Africa’s Security Landscape”

    Because if there is one thing that the continent of Africa is in desperate need of is mercs. There were whole companies of them running around Africa in the 50s and 60s which really made the people there happy. The difference is that back then was that these were small groups recruited by people like “Mad Mike” Hoare under contract by local governments. These days you have major multinational corporations that have cornered the market of mercs and are only one step away from major governments-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Mike_Hoare#Congo_Crisis_(1961%E2%80%9365)

    Reply
  3. Ignacio

    Pandemic fears grow amid alarming rise of variant in China Daily Mail

    Surprisingly good reporting in the Daily Mail, and sounds alarming. I haven’t yet completely read the scientific paper but this, just before winter, is something to watch closely. I am missing a comparative analysis of this strain to well known human infecting variants in the very same paper and the serologic analysis is incomplete, IMO, and would have required simultaneous analyses with human Influenza antisera even if they claim there is no cross reactivity citing references that supposedly say so. The fact that the virus spreads airborne amongst ferrets is something to note. Yet again, comparative transmission analyses with other flu strains are missing there. The human sample consisted in >600 samples obtained between 2020-2024 with positivity rates not dissected by year of sample but origin (rural/urban) and that makes me suspicious. A few grains of salt on this paper after a very fast read.

    Reply
  4. DJG, Reality Czar

    NASA Scientist Offers Another Flimsy Opinion on Alien CIvilizations…

    This non-theory is indeed a weak Pan Galactic Gargle Blaster.

    First, the Fermi Paradox, which Wikipedia, of all places, reports amusingly and anecdotally. On the way to lunch, our hero Enrico: Fermi blurted a question variously recalled as: “Where is everybody?” (Teller), “Don’t you ever wonder where everybody is?” (York), or “But where is everybody?” (Konopinski).[19] According to Teller, “The result of his question was general laughter because of the strange fact that, in spite of Fermi’s question coming out of the blue, everybody around the table seemed to understand at once that he was talking about extraterrestrial life.”[20]

    Yep. And Fermi was right.

    The reason is fairly simple. The famous Drake Equation. Plug in one low value (and there is a variable for technological development) among the variables, and the number of space-traveling civilizations in our Orion Arm of the Milky Way Galaxy drops to, ooooh, a dozen.

    Habitable worlds are too far apart.

    And by now, the Lucy Show in reruns has reached everyone else by radio waves, so they know not to show up on Earth.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Of course there is the time factor. Not everybody is developing at the some time and at the same rate. So as an example, suppose that we develop warp drive and can visit stars several hundred light years away. So we may find that one on planet they they are still going through their age of dinosaurs and there is no sapient life. On another, it may be that we missed them in that they developed a major civilization, reached into space but then eventually died out only leaving only stuff for our archaeologists to sort through. We might be able to get enough of their equipment working to see them moving and to here their voices but there would always be the incredibly sad realization – ‘Oh we just missed you’.

      Reply
    2. HH

      There is a very simple answer. A sufficiently advanced civilization collapses into virtual space. Freed from biological evolution, it no longer needs to deal with mass and distance, and travel becomes moot.

      However, even if we assume life forms similar to our type, the current estimate of over 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 habitable planets in the observable universe renders the idea of space exploration ridiculous.

      Reply
      1. Judith

        The assumption of similar life forms is a curious one. And whatever the form, maybe “they” just don’t care.

        Reply
  5. Wukchumni

    re: Guillotine Watch

    Funny how that $60k bottle of water kinda looks after the fact of a very quick hack, Marie.

    My bubbly water is sourced from Mexico, and a liter of Topo Chico is $2.50

    Reply
  6. DJG, Reality Czar

    The new favorite bolthole for British “wealth creators” and other creatures out of a Monty Python sketch.

    Believe me, their presence has been duly noted. Given the current gigantic real-estate investment and permitting scandal currently going on in Milano, the ultra-wealthy Brits are considered part of the problem. There are plenty of articles in the Italian press about this, errrr, debatable tax break.

    And there’s this smidgeon (and it doesn’t get more Brit than this): “Natasha Slater, founder of The Robin Club, a private members’ club in Milan that connects wealthy entrepreneurs across cities, told the Daily Mail why Brits are moving to the city.” Enrollment fee: 5,000 euro.

    And this bit of geographic / cultural info: “Many Brits moving to Milan head for the upmarket Brera and Concilazione districts – which both Nicola and Antonia describe as ‘the south Kensington villagey part’ – although prices in both areas have begun to creep up.”

    Picio da corsa, as we say in the Undisclosed Region, which will remain undisclosed. It’s as if the Brits haven’t already fucked up Tuscanyland!

    Pass the bonet.

    Reply
  7. Henry Moon Pie

    People talking to God/AI–

    What a friend we have in AI Jesus! All our sins and griefs to bear. Feuerbach, the man who said we had created YHWH in our image rather than the other way around, would feel affirmed.

    On a related note, I’m noticing a lot of YouTube talkers addressing the origins of Zionism, and I’ve commented here about Darby-ism and the Scofield Bible. Here’s a YouTube discussion with a fellow who’s written a book (published by Oxford Academic) traces Christian Zionism back even further to the early Reformation and an English Presbyterian (i.e. Calvinist) preacher. The thread continues through the Pilgrims to the New Jerusalem in the Americas and even the new Zion, first in Independence, MO, then in Salt Lake City. The guy may be a little off-putting, but he knows his stuff. I learned a lot.

    The Christian Zionists are a big part of why AIPAC has such clout.

    Reply
    1. mrsyk

      Your own personal Jesus
      Someone to hear your prayers
      Someone who cares
      Your own personal Jesus
      Someone to hear your prayers
      Someone who’s there

      Johnny Cash, covering Depeche Mode

      Reply
  8. The Rev Kev

    “Rebuilding Gaza will take ‘decades,’ cost $70B, experts say”

    On the bright side, Israel has agreed to put their hands in their own pockets and offered to build the foundation for every new building in Gaza.

    Reply
  9. ocypode

    The First 48 Hours of a War With China ‘Could Be Ugly’ National Security Journal

    Probably Battle of Adrianople level of ugly. The delusions run high; I guess the US not fighting someone their own size for almost a century meant they forgot what actual total war is like.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Completely ignored in this article is the question of logistics which tells me that this is not a serious article. Like, how do you re-supply all those units that you have scattered around the Pacific like so much confetti. Supply drones? Submarine supply? More to the point, how will the Pentagon replace all those weapons and missiles after the first coupla days if they do not have the refined earths to build them or the years that it will take to actually build them if they did have those refined rare earths.

      Reply
    2. Louis Fyne

      Marianas Turkey Shoot but in reverse. Historically, the US military has performed awfully in a debut battle against peers and non-peers, more often than not.

      In any modern 1st wold hypothetical war, there won’t be a 2nd chance. So goes the first 48 hours, there goes the war.

      theonly question becomes will the losing side (the US) graciously accept defeat or escalate to tactical nukes over an island (or NATO ally) that the majority of Americans cannot locate without Google’s help

      Reply
  10. Polar Socialist

    I’d just like to point out that with Isabella’s Islay you pay for the bottle, not the content. The bottle is carved from crystal and covered with white cold, diamonds and rubies. I think they may even have diamond inside the bottle. Indeed one for the guillotine watch.

    The highest price paid for actual whisky is $2.7 million for the Macallan Fine & Rare 1926. It was distilled in 1926, bottled in 1986 (60 year old whisky) and auctioned in 2023. Only ten remains from the original 12, which Macallan never sold publicly, but reserved for high-end customers. Macallan was the first whisky to be granted the Royal Warrant in the early 19th century, so it’s The Whisky for the English upper classes and the most overpriced one, too.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      It is probably far too expensive to ever open and drink. That makes it an asset that give status like a mansion or a yacht as big as a frigate. Waiting for stone pyramids to become a trend among such people.

      Reply
    2. mrsyk

      Luxury packaging is not a novel idea.
      Somewhere down in the cellar I’ve a 70 yo Cognac bottled in a Baccarat crystal decanter. It’s been designated “apocalypse booze” and with some luck I may never crack the seal.

      Reply
  11. Acacia

    Regarding new films of note: One Battle After Another (2025).

    This is Paul Thomas Anderson’s new and rather free adaptation of Pynchon’s Vineland.

    It’s a pretty fun ride with a Honkywood-competent vibe.

    I will go out on a limb to say that if there is any single new film in 2025 that comes close to capturing the current insanity in the U.S., this is it.

    Reply
  12. eg

    “Europe and the US Are Drifting Apart and It Isn’t Just Because of Trump”

    If there even is a “Europe” as a unitary actor of sorts (which is debatable), it cannot craft a coherent trade position in the world until it seriously engages with Russia in a mutually acceptable security architecture. Until then it will remain a plaything of the US State Department.

    Reply
  13. Hank Linderman

    I want those heavy truck eyes for my minivan. They appear to be mimicking what the drivers eyes are doing – this might be a good thing if all cars had it… or not!

    Best…H

    Reply

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