There has been a lot of excited commentary about the Trump-Putin phone call, after which it appears Trump over-hyped the idea that another Trump-Putin summit would happen soon. Not even having seen the kinda-sorta readouts, Douglas Macgregor was of the “prove it to me” school in terms of seeing if this gambit amounted to a meaningful step forward. If you read the Trump statement and the recap of the phone call from Putin’s aide Yury Ushakov, reproduced in full from the Kremlin site at the end of this post, there is indeed much less here than the excited reactions would have you believe. Importantly, the Ushakov remarks make clear that the much-ballyhooed idea of a next summit was discussed but not agreed by the Russian side. Recall also that Trump just claimed in a call with Modi that Modi had agreed to stop importing Russian oil. India issued a tortured-so-as-apparently-not-to-call-Trump-a-liar denial.
As we’ll review, the practical significance of this call and follow-up meetings appears more to be to buy both Trump and Putin more room for maneuver domestically. A related element of significance is that the call mildly disproves the recent din of criticism in Russia, even by the Russian Foreign Ministry, that the process that Putin attempted to get started in the Alaska summit was dead. That has been to confirm the argument by hardliners who are apparently getting much the broader public that Putin has been way too soft in his prosecution of the Ukraine war and vis-a-vis Trump, that Russia should quit fooling around with pretending that there is any point in talking to the West, and the only resolution to the war is a military one. Even though yours truly does not follow the Russian press, even at this considerable remove, it has been apparent that the Russian media, including even Putin’s favorite Pavel Zarubin, has been questioning Putin aggressively on this topic, which is out of character for the press pool.
However, this does not change the fact that there will be no negotiated settlement to this war, absent “negotiation” being Russia allowing Ukraine to get some very mild softening of a capitulation agreement or perhaps some “negotiation” with a successor regime in rump Ukraine after the current one decamps to set up a government in exile. There is no overlap between the Russian and the Ukraine/US/EU position. Ukraine and most of the European states will not accept a neutral Ukraine and in particular, a commitment that it not eveh join NATO (or a militarized EU as way to evade the requirement). Ukraine has autonomy; the US cannot do a deal with Russia over Ukraine’s head. Admittedly, the US could compel Ukraine to fall into line by cutting off all intelligence but Congress would not tolerate that. Recall Lindsey Graham threatened Trump with the claim that he had 80 votes, as in more than enough to prevail in an impeachment trial, for his “bone-crushing” sanctions. Graham can presumably round up the same suspects again.
If you look at the Alaska summit, it did accomplish two small things. First, Putin did manage to persuade Trump to drop his insistence on “ceasefire first, negotions next”. Keep in mind that this is a process issue, and not a substance (what does a peace amount to?) issue. As skeptics correctly pointed out, this looked simply like a gambit for Ukraine to regroup and attempt to rearm.
Second, recall that right before the Alaska gathering was set up, Trump was under very heavy pressure by Graham and Richard Blumenthal to impose those “bone crushing secondary sanctions on nations that traded in Russian oil, which would kill trade with China and many others stone cold dead. Trump may have believed other nations might knuckle under but was in the process of finding with India that they were a backfire. So the summit also allowed him to hold off the demands of the Russia hawks. Buying time was productive. First, it became evident at least to some that they had failed with India. Second, the Trump team finally came up with its show-stopper: it would impose them only if the EU did too. Their refusal enabled Trump to wave off Graham’s and Blumenthal’s demands.
Recall that the new escalatory demand has been for the US to equip Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. The pretense that little green men other than Americans can operate them is even more ludicrous than with other US systems.
Even though experts have debunked five ways to Sunday whether this can even be done. One of many issues: to keep the pretense is that Ukraine is operating the missiles, it would need to be a ground-launched system. The only one that maybe exists now is ginormous and Russia could almost certainly destroy the platform. On top of that wee problem, there are too few missiles to make any difference. See Black Mountain Analysis for an exhaustive analysis of the general issue.
However, this step is massively provocative as a mere idea. Tomahawks are nuclear capable. Even if Russia is absolutely certain none of the Tomahawks fired at it were nuclear-equipped, it cannot allow this precedent. Putin and others have been walking the line of not getting hair-on-fire about this (which would embolden the many nutters in the US and NATO states) while trying to convey that this would be a Very Bad idea.
Putin appears to have made progress on that front in his conversation:
One phone call and Tomahawk Missiles are off the table and Trump is hustling to Budapest to meet with Putin. pic.twitter.com/tkU2qLKbIg
— Maine (@TheMaineWonk) October 16, 2025
And the mere timing of the call is a kick in the head to Zelensky, who is in Washington today to demand those Patriots. From the BBC:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday, as Trump weighs whether to arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles capable of striking deep into Russia.
Of course, Zelensky tried spinning that Russia was operating from weakness. From the same account:
As Zelensky arrived in the US, his third visit since January, he said Moscow was “rushing to resume dialogue as soon as it hears about Tomahawks”.
But we need to step back and look at the bigger context of the on-again, off again US-Russia talks. Since meetings started in Istanbul, Russia has been trying to get the US to negotiate in a grown-up manner, as in a way that will produce adequate understanding between the two sides so as to lead to detailed agreements that both sides can and will respect.
Here I fail to understand why Russia bothers, save to somewhat reverse the very bad baseline between the two nations. The US has established repeatedly and consistently that it is utterly untrustworthy. So unless the Russian side are idiots, the purpose here is not to reach an agreement, but to improve communications and somewhat reduce the level of misunderstanding and friction, particularly so as to avoid a nuclear war (remember every war game the US has played out between the US and Russia has ended in a nuclear conflagration).
Russia has proposed that each side pursue three tracks and had identified what each team should pursue. When criticized that this was all too low-level, Russia had even offered to deploy more senior officials (even though its team actually was heavyweight; the US suffers from Big Man syndrome, as so apparently anyone less that foreign minister Lavrov will not do).
It was evident that the US was not prepared to do anything. Russia has some initial demands, including returning its impermissibly seized US diplomatic property and re-opening direct flights. The failure to do either points to US unseriousness and/or considerable bureaucratic opposition. I would keep an eye on those two matters as indictors of whether this new initiative is getting anywhere.
Now with that background, where do things actually stand? First from Trump:
So Trump admits to making a “shape of the table” concession to Putin, that there will be lower level discussions first, albeit not all that much lower, before a summit.
Given the US pattern of not preparing for discussions, I would not hold my breath about progress being made quickly. Putin has said he was always willing to meet with Trump if groundwork were laid. One has to wonder what Steve Witkoff said in his three hours in person at the Kremlin to get Putin to relent and commit to the Alaska summit. It took Witkoff five hours to tee up this conversation.
As you can see from Ushakov’s summary below, Putin has not yet agreed to a summit:
In this context, it is worthy of note that the presidents discussed the possibility of holding another personal meeting. This is indeed a very significant development. It was agreed that representatives of both countries would immediately begin preparations for the summit, which could potentially be organised in Budapest, for instance.
Notice the inconsistent tone: “immediately” teeing up an even that is merely a possibility. The squaring of that circle may simply be getting some national leader to agree to be a host if and when things progress. In keeping, Putins’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov is talking down timing expectations. From TASS in Putin-Trump meeting to be prepared gradually, many issues to be resolved — Kremlin:
Preparations for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump will be in several stages, as the leaders of diplomatic agencies are working on resolving a large number of issues, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing, replying to a question by TASS.
“The thing is that the issue will be worked out by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Secretary of State Rubio,” the Kremlin official noted. “First, they will have a phone conversation and meet, and hold discussions on the topic, begin discuss all issues,” he noted.
“There are a lot of issues – it is necessary to determine negotiating teams,” Peskov said. “Everything will be in stages,” he added.
As to Budapest, perhaps Putin was too polite to point out in real time, assuming Trump suggested Hungary on the call, that Trump is map-challenged:
It is still not known how Putin intends to get to Budapest for a potential summit, considering that Hungary is a landlocked county and all of the countries surrounding it would probably refuse to allow an aircraft operated by the Russian Government, especially one carrying Putin,… https://t.co/BL3kSk4cnA pic.twitter.com/5MzJ06VKlQ
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 16, 2025
And this is just tacky:
It is noteworthy that one of the US President’s key arguments centred on the premise that the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine would open up tremendous – and he stressed this – tremendous prospects for the development of US-Russian economic cooperation.
Those impatient with the progress of the conflict may be frustrated that these talks will help Putin in slow-walking the war, which is what they believe he has been doing. But one has to note that even before this call, Mark Sleboda, who has been the most accurate English-speaking commentator in projecting how it would advance, is now discussing Russian operations continuing into 2027. Of course, that pre-supposes no collapse, which could come about due to the electricity war, as opposed to the pace of operations in the east.
However, recall that to Trump’s considerable anger, Russia did not slow its conduct of the war after the Alaska gathering. But there is a case to be made for Russia continuing to (merely) attrit Ukraine. We are seeing government in Europe start to break under the pressure of hysterical demands for more guns as opposed to butter as standards of living are already falling due to the reverberating impact of the rejection of cheap Russian gas. A “right wing” as in not-keen-about-fighting Russia coalition under Andrej Babis is forming a new government in the Czech Republic. Macron is a dead man walking in France. It is an open question as to whether he can hold off calling Parliamentary election until his term ends in May 2027, but both the left and Rassemblement Nationale are against more spending for Project Ukraine. The longer the war continues, the more EU member states will go into revolt. So as much as patience is maddening, there is method to this madness.
____
From the Kremlin website, Commentary by Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov following a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and President of the United States Donald Trump:
Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov: Colleagues,
Today in the afternoon, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation, the eighth one, with US President Donald Trump.
The conversation lasted almost two and a half hours. Clearly, it was a rather substantive and at the same time very open and frank exchange.
Our President started out by congratulating Donald Trump on his successful efforts to normalise the situation in the Gaza Strip. The US President’s peace work has been duly appreciated in the Middle East, in the United States itself, and in most countries around the world.
Naturally, the Russian side outlined its principled position in favour of a comprehensive Middle East settlement on a generally recognised international legal basis that would ensure lasting peace for all the peoples in that region.
A special emphasis during the conversation was placed on the Ukraine crisis. Vladimir Putin provided a detailed assessment of the current situation, stressing Russia’s interest in achieving a peaceful resolution through political and diplomatic methods.
In particular, it was noted that during the special military operation, the Russian Armed Forces hold full strategic initiative along the entire line of contact. Under these circumstances, the Kiev regime resorts to terrorist methods, attacking civilian targets and energy infrastructure facilities, to which we are forced to respond accordingly.
Donald Trump repeatedly emphasised the imperative of establishing peace in Ukraine at the earliest opportunity. The notion that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has proven the most intractable issue in all peacekeeping efforts of the US President was palpably evident throughout his remarks during the conversation. In this context, he naturally mentioned his successes in settling eight other regional conflicts.
It is noteworthy that one of the US President’s key arguments centred on the premise that the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine would open up tremendous – and he stressed this – tremendous prospects for the development of US-Russian economic cooperation.
Incidentally, both sides spoke of the profound mutual affinity between the peoples of the two countries, which was so vividly demonstrated during the Second World War. It was underscored that the current state of bilateral relations appears paradoxical against this backdrop.
The issue of potential supplies of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine was also raised. Vladimir Putin reiterated his position that Tomahawks would not change the situation on the battlefield but would inflict substantial damage to relations between our countries, to say nothing of the prospects for a peaceful settlement.
In this context, it is worthy of note that the presidents discussed the possibility of holding another personal meeting. This is indeed a very significant development. It was agreed that representatives of both countries would immediately begin preparations for the summit, which could potentially be organised in Budapest, for instance.
On a separate note, it should be mentioned that our President highly praised personal efforts of the First Lady of the United States Melania Trump in reuniting Russian and Ukrainian children with their families and asked the US President to convey his very best wishes to his spouse.
Overall, I would say that the telephone contact between the presidents of Russia and the United States was quite useful, and the two leaders agreed to maintain contact.
Thank you for the attention.
Putin going to Hungary is an extremely risky move. I can only assume that he will fly over Croatia and direct to Hungary. But if I were him, I would bring along a full air wing of Russian fighters to do a goodwill tour of Hungary. Why yes, that is a lot of good will but he seems to like Orban. But the temptation for the EU to do something stupid will be enormous. They are already setting up war crimes tribunals in the Netherlands to try Putin and the rest of his government and the British are training the members of the court in how to proceed and I am sure that they will do just as good a job as they did with Julian Assange.
So why is Putin doing this and making himself vulnerable to criticism at home for his soft stance? I can only think that Putin realizes that after the war in the Ukraine is over, that the US will still be there with all its bases, nukes, etc. and feeling burnt because they lost. That some sort of relation has to be established to make the world a bit safer. If he could have dealt with a normal President it could happen. Unfortunately he had to deal with a dementia patient and now he has to deal with a carnival barker that acts like he is off his meds. It’s not a lot to work with but I think that Putin realizes that you cannot just let both countries go their own way without some sort of disasters developing, hence this forlorn hope of diplomacy.
Or he agreed to meet in Budapest because he knows nothing will come of the prior meetings with Rubio. Keep the demented president happy… just nod your head and say yes… sure I’ll meet you in Budapest if there is anything of substance to finalize (not).
#Buy
Same vibes here.
“Yeah bro … no probz bro … Hungary for sure, bro …”
Putin will fly to Hungary just like Lavrov flew to Serbia in 2022.
Saw Donnie on the teevee last night bragging that he had threatened to send Zelensky “a couple of thousand Tomahawks” and that Vlad really didn’t like that.
Do I recall that the U.S. only produces 200 of these per year and that he only has 20 or 30 available to send?
It’s like the DOGE “savings”.
It’s a new branch of math, “Cayfabulous”.
1. Tomahawks are cruise missiles, not ballistic missiles. The difference is substantial. For one, this means that the US would be intimately involved in programming and approving every launch and every target, using US satellite maps for navigation; Ukraine would have zero agency here other than to possibly, maybe, propose a wish list of things they wanted to hit to US planners.
2. I believe I have posted here on this before; the “hardliners” and the military guys are not the only stakeholders or factions in Russia. We know that at least some of the oligarchs are pining for the days when “everything goes back to normal” with the West, and I stress that Putin’s literally very first televized meeting after announcing the SMO was with the top 50+ oligarchs. As well, not just the press but Lavrov himself has officially stated that significant chunks of the government bureaucracy are similarly hopeful for a rapprochement with the West (largely on the West’s terms), and I personally would start here with the Central Bank, which had been a neoliberal hotbed for decades, and which Putin continues to protect despite growing rumblings – on television, on the record – from senior members of the otherwise staunchly loyal Duma (e.g. Babakov, the deputy speaker).
So maintaining a ready-to-negotiate stance and putting Russia in a position of being rejected is actually something that helps Putin manage that side of the equation. However…
3. …There are also Putin’s personal biases, which he has publically spoken about of late (not something he had done previously). Every time he mentions how in the 1980s “we thought if we ditched socialism the Americans would treat us as equals”, that’s what he is referencing. He personally is of that generation and mindset, and he has admitted as much, as recently as in his Valdai speech. [Funnily enough, the Russian-language Kremlin transcript of that speech…cut those words entirely. Thankfully, the press covering the event still reported them.] To his credit, he is smart enough to understand the actual situation, but I believe he, in his heart of hearts, would still have preferred to have talked the issue out (a la Minsk-Infinity) over taking the hard line. So the Americans are doing the hardliners a favor by not just stringing him along, in other words.
4. And, of course, I recall that a year or two ago there were articles here and there about how some members of the BRICS – Brazil and India, specifically – were expressing their preference that Russia negotiate the problem away rather than continue to force the issue militarily. Mind, this was under the shambling corpse of Joe Biden, when negotiating slash being strung along by the Americans was still a thing, as opposed to the current regime’s bluster and flailing about. But again, extending the hand and having it slapped away also helps Putin on the international arena.
5. On a separate note, Russian government-linked TV is currently in a sort of a two-tier pattern. The top-mainstream-whatever news programs are sticking to reporting statements by Trump, Ushakov, whomever, verbatim, with little to no editorial commentary. Meanwhile, just below that level, Solov’ev and other cohorts (e.g. on the “Solov’ev TV” channel”) are letting talking heads on who claim that the Tomahawks are already in Ukraine, the Americans are just trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes while selecting a time and place to strike. And in general being significantly more hawkish than the Channel 1 nightly news people allow themselves to be. It’s almost as if groundwork is being laid for something…
6. The key question, really, is what the hell are they going to use to fire the Tomahawks. There just aren’t many Typhons available – I would argue, there aren’t any available, since a) as of March, there were only two batteries that have been officially “stood up”; b) the Pentagon had originally wanted four batteries around the world, but now may be hinting it wants more; and c) the 2025 budget had money for procuring exactly one battery with exactly one reload (so 16 + 16 missiles total) for that fiscal year. Unless someone plans to hand over an American ship to the Ukrainians, or unless that newly procured battery is going to “visit” Ukraine (see below), I don’t get it. Other than if the whole thing were a bluff, of course.
7. Speaking of. “The Russians will knock it out” is a bit of a red herring, if the Americans don’t play complete dum-dums. What you do is smuggle the thing into the L’vov region, pop up and launch your payload of 16 missiles, then immediately run across the border into Poland. Or hide in the local woods, I guess, to the extent there are any woods in the L’vov region. Because Russian recon drones as of now do not fly that far, or, at least, not that the Russians have admitted to in public, and that’s the only way you could realistically track these things on the move for an “Iskander” or “Kinzhal” strike (which, in turn, is the only realistic way to reach that far beyond the frontline in a reasonably quick fashion). Now, if like with the Patriots, they set these things up in a stationary position in the open, and somewhere next to Kiev, then yes, all bets are off. But I repeat, the Pentagon would be a special brand of stupid even by its own lofty standards of idiocy to allow its precious Typhon launchers anywhere within 500 miles of the frontline, (a), or to linger anywhere inside an active warzone, (b).
8. This last one is a pure guess. I am not sure how keen the Pentagon would be to lend its little toy to Ukraine, because of the potential bad press if the launch “fails”. Say, they launch the things at the Kerch bridge, and fail to bring it down. Can you imagine the peals, gales and howls of laughter and mirth from the Russian media? Can you imagine what that would do to any “deterrence value” Typhons would have against China, which is where the brass wants the things pointed (I believe the very first battery was sent to the Philippines, guess why)? Then again, maybe I am overthinking it.
I will correct per your first comment. However, per #2, it was Putin himself who told businessmen after the Alaska summit that the West was not going to undo sanctions quickly if ever. He reiterated that message just yesterday: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78233. So these oligarchs can want their pony. Putin has been telling them they won’t get it.
And as various commentators who are closer to Russia than I am, the “hardline” sentiment is now well shared among Russia voters generally, as witness the almost hostile questions to Putin of late. This is no longer a minority view.
It’s fairly clear what’s going on here. The Russians are trying to split the US from the Europeans, which is a long-standing ambition of theirs, and they believe that they can use Trump’s absurd aspirations to be a bringer of peace to make this possible. Whilst the war can still be won with US assistance to Ukraine, it can be won faster if the US stops backing Kiev, in whole or in part. So expect the Russians to continue to flatter Trump, and to hold out the prospect of future recognition for his “peacemaking” activities over Ukraine. Meanwhile, they will continue to take a very hostile tone to the Europeans. Although, as I’ve pointed out many times, this will play into the traditional European fear of a US/Russia deal that affects their interests but that they have no influence on, the fact is that even the very limited help that the West can provide to Ukraine is largely dependent on the United States, and the Europeans will be easier to deal with if by that stage the US has been effectively castled. Indeed, I think both countries actually see advantage in winding down the tension and putting relations on a more normal footing. In the meantime, the Russians are prepared to indulge Trump and humour him, without necessarily seeing concrete results in terms of agreements. There’s a bigger strategic game being than that played here.
This seems plausible as an account of Russian strategy, and it is the reading of a large amount of the alt commentary on the war.
However, I have become convinced by Brian Berletic’s claim that there is no *split* between NATO/EU and the US. Rather, NATO and the EU are being tasked with the ongoing process of stretching and destabilizing Russia that has long been the stated policy goal of the US. On Berletic’s reading, I think, the end goal is a war between NATO and Russia that weakens both Europe and Russia while leaving the US unaffected. This is an insane goal, to be sure. But when has that mattered.
EU is not Europe. Russians are also Europeans.
Putin is brighter than all the western leaders put together and this isn’t his first rodeo with Trump. The over riding interest for Russia remains its security needs and there is nothing to gain in an aggressive response to Trump or the the Tomahawk threat. Trump can shoot off his mouth all he wants, but at the end of the day he will maintain a relationship with Putin because it’s good for his ego and his goal is to make a buck – he wants trade relations. This call was a strong message to Zelensky and the Europeans, and Putin will play whatever game he needs to play to try to settle the war.
“demand those Patriots”
I think you mean to say “demand those Tomahawks”?
Excellent write up.
Thank you for the attention.
Am I correct that those are Yuri Ushakov’s words closing his statement? Sounds familiar.
Trump could stop the US involvement in the war today. No intelligence, money, weapons support, remove all us people military or contractors and not sell weapons to Europe for Ukraine.
He could push the idea that it’s his only play for peace in Europe, and it’s probably true.
If he did that, Europe couldn’t keep funding Ukraine for very long in $ to keep the country open, or weapons.
So I think this is just more Trump keeping up the all about Trump media campaign. And as many of the military experts have pointed out, the continued talk of Russia losing, Ukraine winning, etc seems to actually be believed by Trump and the euro leaders. So it’s no wonder Trump thinks he has some
Kind of a winning hand to play and can force something from Russia.
I see no change in trumps play, and so it seems like more death and destruction
“Thank you for your attention…” Donnie is sending us inter-office memos? We must attend to them? Attend to what? If Ushakov used the same phrase, sounds like mockery to me.