Yves here. Below, Andrew Korybko describes some of the overly-romantic views that Palestine supporters of Russia’s willingness to signal opposition to US and Israel’s continued ethnic cleansing of Gaza. He also makes a critical point about the evolution to a system of multipolarity: that great and greater powers will act in their own interest, and smaller fry will have to adapt. We have pointed out that the reality of being a smaller country means have to do the best one can of playing the interests of the heavyweights off against each other so as to hopefully secure maximum advantage.
We highlighted a warning from Vanessa Beeley and Fiorella Isabel, triggered by the lack of effective action by BRICS members to halt Gaza genocide or even make Israel pay a real price for it. From “BRICS Are the New Defenders of Free Trade, the WTO, the IMF and the World Bank” and Support Genocide by Continuing to Trade with Israel, in which we quoted a discussion between Beeley and Isabel:
Vanessa Beeley (10:50): But I think I still, where I’m struggling with the issue of BRICS, BRICS countries and their lack of drive to end the genocide and to actually under the Geneva Convention to effectively prevent genocide and punish those that are accused of committing genocide…
We’re seeing an increase in trade between China and India and Israel, both of them being heavily involved in the arms trade with Israel and certainly not throttling back. China’s invested through Chinese state companies and the settlement programs in the occupied territories. It’s investing in Ashdod and Haifa port, both of which receive weapons for the Zionist military on a regular basis. India is both an energy supplier, it’s just inked a new deal with Israel in the last few days, but also a weapons mutual trade deals between them. Russia is providing energy…
Not a single gesture has been made by any of these countries, apart from, of course, South Africa and Iran…
And what I find sort of disturbing is this inability by these countries to even address the fact that it is a genocide. and even to uphold the measures that must be taken that have been recommended by Francesca Albanese, by the ICJ, look at Yemen’s adherence to the genocide convention….
And we know that both Russia and China are also heavily invested with Saudi Arabia and with the UAE, both of which, one, were created to partner with the Zionist entity when the British created the so-called State of Israel…
And I guess what I’m trying to say is morally, I’m not understanding why people are so clinging to a bias which blinds them to holding these countries to account and saying to them, you have the power to do something….They have literally, they have the only capability in the world today, apart from the armed resistance in the region, to actually do something economically, not militarily, economically, to stop what is happening in Palestine.
And they’re failing to do it.
And later in the discussion:
Fiorella Isabel (23:10): When the majority of countries that have the capability to stop the Holocaust of our time aren’t doing it, then what world can I expect? What difference does it make if China and Russia rise and they’re not doing something different? Then the U S perhaps cosmetically, there is more of a transactional, um, I would say soft power type of, you know, relationship. It is more cooperative. There is some sort of win-win to some, if you have, you know, if they, if there’s a respect, a mutual respect, if you have enough of a, of, of something to show for it, when it comes to Russia and the way they operate pragmatically, um, That is how it is. I mean, they will have respect for Iran, but they don’t necessarily have respect for the rest of the Middle East or West Asia. And I think we’ve talked about this before. They’re not…..
If you’re going to be against hegemony, that is an ideological perspective. I don’t really think they’re against the hegemony. I think they want to have a piece of the pie. And that’s very well and fine….
Vanessa Beeley (32:18): And as we keep saying, if you’re going to hold BRICS countries up, Russia and China up, as some kind of viable alternative to the paradigm we’ve been living in for decades and that the world is sick of, then how can we accept that they’re doing virtually the same thing?…
Fiorella Isabel (38:40): It is actually just a very formulaic type of, of cheerleading for a team. It’s just more iterations of that, you know, from the microscopic left, right paradigm to, you know, multipolar and unipolar thing. It’s become just very much iterations of the same type of mentality where you’re just choosing a team and you’re just repeating what is most advantageous for you, what is most popular, what X, Y analysts said and whatever they say goes. And so when you question outside of that, you break people’s brains.
More subtle evidence supporting Beeley’s and Isabel’s warning is the way Russia has taken to mentioning the importance of civilizational states1. If I am in a former colony like Malaysia, that clearly does not include my country. So this is a signal that some animals will indeed be more equal than others.
Now in fairness, there is another theory regarding the UN abstentions: Russia and China recognized that this Gaza scheme will not work out well for its sponsors, and they might as well get out of the way and let the US and Israel founder in their mess. But that does nothing to stop continued death and devastation in Gaza.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
The global systemic transition to multipolarity is increasingly characterized by the “19th-century Great Power chessboard” paradigm in which such states prioritize their interests at the (perceived or actual) expense of comparatively medium- and smaller-sized ones and non-state actors.
Quite a few folks on social media are disappointed, enraged, and/or disgusted that Russia abstained from the latest UNSC Resolution on Gaza after it authorized an “International Stabilization Force” (ISF) there in alignment with the peace plan that the US mediated between Israel and Hamas. They believe that Russia should have vetoed the resolution in spite of the Palestinian Authority’s support for it, thus essentially suggesting that Russia should be “more pro-Palestinian than the Palestinians themselves”.
These expectations aren’t surprising since they align with the general sentiment espoused by many members of the Alt-Media Community, especially top influencers, quite a few of whom have peddled false claims about Russian policy towards the conflict or at least reinforced false perceptions of it. The foundational lie upon which all the others are built is that Putin is an anti-Zionist secretly allied with Iran against Israel and that all facts to the contrary are just him “playing 5D chess to psyche out the Zionists”.
The reality though is that he’s actually a proud lifelong philo-Semite, even going as far as to describe Russians and Israelis as “a true common family” and Israel as “a Russian-speaking country”, but false perceptions about his views and Russian policy continue to proliferate for the reasons explained here. Russia’s abstention might finally shatter this false paradigm since it’s extremely difficult to spin this as anti-Zionist, however, especially since it’s widely seen as having been imposed upon Hamas by the US.
About that group, Russia officially considers October 7th to have been a terrorist attack, but it doesn’t consider Hamas’ political wing to be a terrorist organization even though Israel wishes that it did. At the same time, Russia doesn’t consider Hamas to be the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, the role of which it considers to be played by the Palestinian Authority. This further contextualizes why Russia abstained from the resolution instead of vetoed it even though Hamas was fiercely against it.
Be that as it may, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN still harshly criticized the resolution in his detailed comments that are worth reading in full here, thus dispelling speculation that Russia “sold out” Gaza to Israel after Putin’s call with Bibiahead of the vote. Russia was therefore clearly displeased with this resolution, but it can’t realistically present itself as “more pro-Palestinian than the Palestinians themselves” after the Palestinian Authority supported it, ergo why it lambasted the draft then abstained.
Vetoing the resolution under these circumstances, especially without China doing so as well (it too abstained), would have therefore been blatant obstruction. It would also have offended those of Russia’s partners that are ready to participate in the ISF by withholding UNSC legitimacy from their mission. Since Russia has no desire to prevent them from deploying to Gaza, they’d thus likely do so anyhow, which would expose its grandstanding, embarrass it, and harm its ties with them without any benefit at all.
The global systemic transition to multipolarity is increasingly characterized by the “19th-century Great Power chessboard” paradigm in which such states prioritize their interests at the (perceived or actual) expense of comparatively medium- and smaller-sized ones and non-state actors. Accordingly, there was never any realistic chance of Russia siding with Hamas over the Palestinian Authority, Israel, and their shared ISF partners no matter how this makes some feel, which they still have the right to express.
______
1 Forgive me for not running down the link, but Lavrov did in a advocating for a pan-Asian organization.
27 comments
Comments are closed.
From what I read, both Russia and China were dubious over this agreement as details are kinda vague and much that should have been included was missing. Trouble was that most Arab countries in the region supported this plan and whose minds could not be changed. So rather than being the dog in the manger over this plan which the region’s countries supported, they chose to abstain. The thought may have been to let it be adopted and when it all falls over into messy heap, they may have a chance on their own diplomatic ideas and thoughts then. An ongoing problem here is that most Arab countries do not side with the Palestinians or want them and would rather line up with Israel.
I think that’s it, that Israel’s shield is the enthusiastic support of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, etc for Israel, and so Russia and China play along.
(As well as the fact they don’t actually care).
I agree with your take here (and from his last paragraphs, it sounds like the author does too).
Taking it one step further though, while I don’t normally go for “4D chess” interpretations, I think China & Russia could also see this as a risk-free opportunity in regards to the UN & “multipolarity”.
By not obstructing, they can keep all their “points” in the existing UN bank. But if/when this plan blows up, they can blame it on US-aligned countries & argue for shifting more to other, friendlier international fora.
It actually says so on the Russian Foreign ministry’s web portal:
Russia is presenting itself as a reasonable international actor, in pursuit of peace, even if they think this resolution is too vague and may be misused by Israel and USA.
I thought it was obvious from the statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry, if the Palestinian Authority and all the Arab countries are supporting this , what is the point of a Russia veto , ditto China.
They made their views known but its like hitting your head against a brick wall. If the elite in the Arab countries won’t do anything that might disturb their position, what is the point.
Israel is one of the few Western nations that has consistently supported Russia’s anti-Nazi resolutions since the start of the SMO. Therefore, if Russia were to reject an Israeli-led proposal, Israel would likely consider it an act of betrayal.
Yes to all of the above, but there may also be thoughts of why interrupt your enemy when making a mistake in the form of a genocide.
I think we should interrupt our enemy “when making a mistake in the form of genocide”.
Fair enough, but I doubt a Russia or China veto would actually stop the genocide.
Short of threatening major economic or military action, they don’t have much in the way of leverage on this issue.
They have zero leverage, but concerned citizens of the west (aka. the enemy) won’t stop shifting the blame to anyone but themselves. Trump is not there by accident. He is personification of the society. Taking all the credits, and zero blame.
This says it all- Hindu Nationalists have joined at the hip with Zionists
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-pitches-its-10-ds-as-israel-calls-new-delhi-the-next-big-thing-for-investment/articleshow/125458955.cms
Craig Murray has written a column about how the Security Council has become the Achilles heel of the UN as a legitimate peace promoting body and that the UK and France shouldn’t even be among the top five given their diminished international importance. Of course the design of the body is in line with the US itself which was intended to be democratic while giving the major players extra perks.
CM also points out that if Scotland were independent, ‘Great Britain’ would cease to exist, and London would lose its seat in the Security Council.
So, first, beyond Putin’s personal preferences, there is the fact that a metric megaton of Russian citizens had emigrated to Israel in the 1990s-2000s. Many without giving up their Russian citizens; some have actually have come back (!), though I also personally know of cases where some individuals ended up moving to the US instead.
Times of Israel claims there are 1.3 million Russian speakers in Israel today, but that includes post-Soviet countries like Ukraine and Uzbekistan. But let’s suppose half of that figure are Russian-Russians, that’s still a pretty sizable diaspora, not to mention ~10% of all Israeli Jews. And has historically included some of the, shall we say, more prominent people (not just oligarchs, but in the “cultural elite”).
The point is, if you’re making a big show out of defending Russian diasporas in places like Ukraine, you also have to be…less than abrupt vis-a-vis the Israelis. Even if it’s common knowledge that Israeli instructors and weapons have found their way to the Ukrainians.
Secondly, BRICS. Who have made a great show of being welcoming and courteous to Arab countries, and Egypt and the UAE have actually joined. If a resolution is supported by most major Arab countries, how can two of the founding BRICS members shoot it down, unless it’s something that really, really affects their core strategic interests (which, sadly, Palestine does not). By the way, this is exactly the line being taken in at least some Iranian media (Pars Today) – which literally reprinted most of the Russian UN representative’s remarks. And Pars Today is what I would call a vigorously anti-Israeli publication, to the point of not capitalizing the country’s name.
So, yeah, basic Thucydides in action. Well. I mean, all states are self-interested actors, but only some of them have the power to actually pursue their interests independently.
Thank you, Yves.
Even before this latest, it was noticeable from African commentary on social media and BTL that they have no faith in Russia and China and even expect the pair to respect spheres of influence, so no help in Latin America.
I find it amusing that so many people concoct opinions about international affairs when they lack full information, correct analyses, and historical knowledge. Doing so, they project their wishes and dreams on world leaders like Putin or Xi who have to wrestle with governing vast nations and a bewilderingly complex international play. The result is noise and confusion. Better to patiently watch and wait, especially as their opinions are just mist on the wind.
Col Wilkerson, in a recent dialogue with Nima, also opined that it was probably best to let the plan collapse on its own without their imprimatur – or opposition – to Trump unilaterally implementing his “Get Me A Peace Prize” plan.
Under the heading of ” WHAT ABOUT THE PEOPLE” this report says the plan for humanitarian aid for the palestinian people will depend on all involved agreeing to the plan and it says the palestinian people will have to adhere to reforms imposed by the Palestinian Authority , what reforms ? i would guess the reforms will disadvantage palestinians and deprive them of any control over their land.
This is why Russia and China are not playing along with yet another trick by the USA UK EU Irael coalition.
I say dont take the Russians and Chinese for fools and dont be continually fooled by trumps peace plans that always turn out to be nothing of the sort , he doesnt want peace , he wants control.
The secret to happiness is to face the fact that the world is horrible.
Bertrand Russell
I suspect the Russian and Chinese position is partly based on letting brer rabbit grab the tar baby if he wants to.
That, and about a million and a half dual Russian-Israeli citizens.
Glenn diesen had on chas freeman today and he talks at length about Gaza as well as Ukraine.
He answers a lot of the questions and comments above in great detail and depth
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rEeZPr0p6lI
#TYVM
Much less bluster the last few days from Trump about attacking VenezuelaI. I suspect that in order to persuade China to abstain, the USA promised China that it would not attack Venezuela, where China has some investments.
Well, Russia offered an amendment in which the actions would have been reported to the Security Council, but there was no support. It was tabled.
I first and foremost look at what the Gulf Cooperation Council and Arab monarchies are in general doing. None of them give a hoot about Arabs that want to be republicans. Only Algeria banded initially with China and Russia opposing US draft.
But I am surprised about Indonesia’s stance.
The West is run by absolute family-blogging lunatics. China and Russia understand this completely.
The game is not to get (further) drawn into direct conflicts, or anything that could be easily escalated toward that end.
The only way to win is to not interrupt their mistakes and let them hurtle toward their own implosion. I suspect the Chinese and Russians are looking with great interest at the implosion of MAGA, with #Ni0z15m as a big part of the wedge. The underlying awakening is going to take on a life of its own towards what it means to be “America 1st”, and believe it or not, there’s a real anti-Capitalist tone to it all that I’m seeing … but you can’t call it such yet. There is a long way to go before a real alternate path appears out of the un-hewn forest. As Lambert used to say: inside-outside-game. Inside: the coming together of left and right over foreign influence on US gov’t policy to bring down both sides of the establishment duopoly; outside: dismantling/circumventing global/imperial-ist systems: UN, SWIFT et al will all be rendered less powerful by losing what the today is the Global South over time.
VVP is a lover of the Jewish state, turned the RF’s back on Syria for the Jewish state and dare i suggest asked the Nut&Yahoo if he wanted the RF to go back. China will do what works best for the money with its trading partners from a business pov…
Ahem, Palestine whats that?
Which is why the whole world, not just ‘The West’ will suffer the consequences of this ongoing, & now in Sudan, genocide.
For me 80 years of sadness beyond belief. Take care.