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Links 12/16/2025

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A Powerful New Drug Is Creating a ‘Withdrawal Crisis’ in Philadelphia New York Times (resilc)

For Me, Postpartum Testosterone Decline Has Been Very Real Freddie deBoer

New study shows some plant-based diets may raise heart disease risk ScienceDaily (Kevin W)

Free pass or failing grade for saturated fats? Review sets off scientific and political debate STAT. The plural of anecdote is not data. However, my mother thought butter was a food group and lived to be 94.

Huge Study Finds Very Worrying Results for Medical Marijuana Patients Futurism. Micael T: “Not surprising. Commercial interests, VC & PE, are behind the marijuana-boom.”

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Climate/Environment

Glaciers To Reach Peak Rate of Extinction In the Alps In Eight Years Guardian

China?

The Fusion Race: China Versus Outlaw US Empire Karl Sanchez

China’s Elite-Focused Schools Are Failing Most Students, Top Educators Say Caixin

Consumption in China: Is it really that bad? Asia Times (Norbert H). A reaction from PlutoniumKun by e-mail:

It’s hard to really get a grip on that article as it throws a lot of figures around in a somewhat haphazard way.

It is true that China traditionally undercounted services in its GDP figures (one reason why 1990’s growth was exaggerated – there was a huge GDP undercount for the previous decades), but that was more or less addressed in the 1990’s, and is irrelevant when looking at overall trends. It is also irrelevant to the overall question of ‘real’ Chinese GDP pp, which again, it has always been recognised as a probable undercount when compared to the US (although not necessarily to other countries).

What matters is how consumption relates to overall spending proportionately, and how it relates to overall nominal GDP growth – in all these cases it has been seriously lagging, indicating not just an imbalanced economy, but quite a severe domestic recession (ongoing for quite a few years now), covered over by repeated credit booms.

I keep coming across numerous stories of insane levels of over-building – from municipal incinerators that are fed from digging up old landfills, to vast data centres that are completely unused. When you look at the energy output figures, there are obviously huge areas of production that don’t seem to be hitting the overall figures – one suggestion I’ve seen is that there is a major expansion of the plastics industry which is accounting for much of the nomminal apparent increase in energy use.

In my opinion, the only real questions about the Chinese economy are whether Beijing’s balance sheet can successfully take on all the accumulated debt, and whether the lower level system becomes zombified or undergoes some sort of collapse. The total combined debts within the banking and shadow banking system are now significantly above those of Japan in the late 1980’s.

Japan

Ask China: Sanae Takaichi’s Remarks and the Renewed Tensions in China–Japan Relations China Affairs

The Antipodes

Here is everything the media is not telling you about the Bondi beach shooting Council Estate Media (resilc). Important.

Australian governments, media target anti-genocide protests over Bondi Beach shooting WSWS. Micael T: “My first thought what will happen after I heard about the shooting.”

‘It was a matter of conscience’: Ahmed al-Ahmed’s family reveal why he risked his life to disarm alleged Bondi shooter Guardian. He suffered pretty serious injury, which has weirdly not been well reported in the US.

Australia announces strict new gun laws. Here’s how it can act so swiftly NPR (Kevin W)

South of the Border

Venezuela Halts Gas Supply Deals With Trinidad and Tobago TeleSUR

US carries out strikes on 3 vessels in eastern Pacific Anadolu Agency

European Disunion

EU Sanctions Swiss Intelligence Expert Jacques Baud Moon of Alabama

EU state offers to cover costs incurred by Hungary for cutting energy ties with Russia RT (Kevin W)

The Political Theatre of Fredrich Mertz China Economic Indicator

Foreign takeovers across Germany German Foreign Policy. Micael T: “A good reminder that corporations and their shareholders are the first and greatest of traitors. None of the German industry associations have said or done anything to stop the German or EU political-economical suicide.”

Old Blighty

Britain caught in ‘space between peace and war’, says new head of MI6 Guardian (Kevin W)

UK unemployment rate rises to 5.1% The Times

Israel v. The Resistance

Israeli troops shoot settler suspected of attempted knife attack on soldiers Middle East Eye (resilc)

ICC rejects Israeli bid to block Gaza war crimes investigation Aljazeera

UN General Assembly adopts resolution backing Palestinians’ right to self-determination Anadolu Agency

New Not-So-Cold War

Sitrep Ukraine and Russia Julian Macfarlane

Ukraine’s Energy Grid Reaching Final Tipping Point as Fears Rise Kiev May Face Total Blackout Simplicius

Brief Frontline Report – December 15th, 2025 Marat Khairullin

* * *

Round and Round and Round Oliver Boyd-Barrett

Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Investigation Appears To Be On The Brink Of Implicating Zelensky Andrew Korybko

Mafiosi commanders, expendable troops Events in Ukraine

The Bank of Russia demanded 18.1 trillion rubles from Euroclear Vzglyad via machine translation (Micael T)

Nord Stream: “The Russians are conducting the process through the ‘hands’ of the Germans” Overton via machine translation (Micael T)

Russia’s Logic of Long Rule: Continuity, Statecraft and the Illusion of Regime Change Kautilya the Contemplator (Anthony L)

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

How a US Citizen Was Scanned With ICE’s Facial Recognition Tech 404Media

New identity checks reshaping US federal student aid BioMetric Update

Imperial Collapse Watch

The delegitimization of elites CocotteMinute

North Adams Worked the Weekend Fixing Water Line Breaks iBerkshires. resilc: “No infrastructure in small town ‘merika, but troops in Syria…”

Trump 2.0

Fewer dolls and pencils: Donald Trump struggles to read the US’s cost of living crisis Financial Times

Energy bills in US have increased 13% since Trump took office, new report finds ABC (Kevin W)

“Trump and ‘the end of history.’” Patrick Lawrence

How absolute loyalty to Trump evaporated Telegraph (resilc)

Trump’s Failed Lackey ‘Diplomacy’ Daniel Larison

White House Refuses to Rule Out Summary Executions of People on Its Secret Domestic Terrorist List Intercept (Robin K)

Trump says Rob Reiner, victims of possible homicide, died of ‘Trump derangement syndrome’ The Hill. The underlying tweet. Trump has now undeniably lost his mind. Vile and over the top narcissistic. From IM Doc by e-mail:

As I have been saying over and over for a long time, and I will say again, he has white matter disease.

Again, why did they not release the MRI results of the brain? It was assuredly done with the whole body MRI. It is an absolutely critical piece of evidence. The absence of the MRI brain in that report sticks out like a sore thumb. By not releasing it, they are literally screaming “We are hiding something”. We are going to certainly all see what I am talking about over the next little while. And again – I could care less what “experts” say. “Experts” were telling us there was nothing wrong with Biden either.

He does not have standard issue dementia. He almost assuredly has white matter disease. The foundational symptoms of this are behavioral. The underlying personality they have had for their lives becomes profoundly magnified. They completely lose their filter. There are memory issues but not like Alzheimers, etc. They are perfectly able to care for and feed themselves. But their family often has a tendency to stuff them in the attic. They say the most inappropriate things at the most inopportune times. They will often ruminate about the good old days. Their entire conversation is stuff they have done in the 1950s – and so much of the time focuses on perceived slights.

He is a textbook case. He most certainly does not have dementia in any way shape or form. This is not a Biden scenario. But that being said, it is beginning to look like we are all going to find out that these patients that have this problem are not at all suitable for POTUS.

At the very least, someone in his orbit, just like so many of my patients’ families have had to do, needs to disabuse him of phone privileges. And amazingly in my practice this has often been in the past for exactly the same thing he did today. Sending emails and texts that are completely inappropriate. I can write a book about all the nuclear bombs that have been thrown into family dynamics by these patients.

Trump says building DC triumphal arch is domestic policy chief’s ‘primary thing’ Guardian

Tariffs

A potential tariff refund fight is already chaotic Axios

Health Care

Will Congressional Inaction Force Farmers to Choose Between Health Insurance and Their Farm Budget? AgWeb

House GOP moderates signal they’ll fall in line with Johnson’s health plan Politico

Mamdani

More Muslim candidates seek office as ‘Mamdani effect’ takes hold The Hill

GOP Clown Car

Why Florida is ground zero for coming ObamaCare storm The Hill

Our No Longer Free Press

Donald Trump files $10bn lawsuit against the BBC Financial Times

Economy

Copper Prices Surge Toward $12,000 on AI Demand and Supply Chaos OilPrice

Wall Street frets about make-or-break jobs report… but a key measure is missing for the first time in 80 years Daily Mail. When even the Daily Mail clears its throat…

AI

On the Fundamental Impossibility of Hallucination Control in Large Language Models aRxiv (fk). This comes off as dispositive, but contacts argue that technologists are working on using symbols to augment LLMs as well as find ways to screen for hallucinations. ????

The AI Boom Is Pushing Data Centers Past the Thermal Wall OilPrice

The AI-fueled chip shortage could raise smartphone prices — new research spells out by how much CNBC

How Much Did AI Spending Contribute to First-Half GDP? What About Q3? Michael Shedlock

The Bezzle

General Motors Leading The Pack With New Innovative Ways To Screw The Consumer YouTube (resilc)

Guillotine Watch

Streamer Sued for Assaulting Gay Robot Futurism. Micael T: “Great! Now they make it illegal to counter-attack robots. Resistance must be futile

Class Warfare

Did the PA cops who arrested Luigi Mangione mess things up for NYC prosecutors? Gothamist. I have taken to watching civil rights videos. The default is “I do not consent to a search” when there is no search warrant. If there is a warrant, read it to see if it was really signed by a judge, and to see what it provides for. Sadly none of these protections operate at the border….

You are Klarna’s little bitch. Aftonbladet via machine translation (Micael T)

Then as farce, now as tragedy: The second coming of Microfinance and Credit Regulatory Authority CADTM (Micael T)

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus:

A second bonus:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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165 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “Venezuela Halts Gas Supply Deals With Trinidad and Tobago”

    There is another reason why Venezuela is doing this-

    ‘Trinidad and Tobago will allow the US military to use its airports in the coming weeks, according to a statement from the Caribbean island nation’s Foreign Ministry, as the US continues ramping up military activity near Venezuela.

    Trinidad and Tobago’s Foreign Ministry cited recent military cooperation with the US in its statement, including the recent installation of a radar system in the country.

    “In keeping with established bilateral cooperation, the Ministry has granted approvals for United States military aircraft to transit Trinidad and Tobago’s airports in the coming weeks. The United States has advised that these movements are logistical in nature, facilitating supply replenishment and routine personnel rotations,” the ministry said.’

    https://news.antiwar.com/2025/12/15/trinidad-and-tobago-to-open-its-airports-to-us-military-as-us-continues-buildup-near-venezuela/

    And the island of Trinidad is just seven miles off the coast of Venezuela. But if the US attacks Venezuela, then Trinidad could find itself being attacked too.

  2. Wukchumni

    Trump says building DC triumphal arch is domestic policy chief’s ‘primary thing’ Guardian
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I’ve always thought that Benedict Donald is a mish-mash of famous for all the wrong reasons characters of the past…

    Adolf is the easy one, but he has so much Caligula in him, and as always with these reprehensible types, it doesn’t end well.

    Change up ‘Praytorian Guard’ for the Roman version of our ‘Galligula’.

    Known for lavish spending, tyranny, and alleged insanity, though he began with popular reforms before descending into depravity, culminating in his assassination by the Praetorian Guard and senators who sought to restore the Republic.

    1. ilsm

      Caligula comes to mind…..

      Who will be Caligula 2025’s equine senator?

      Did Benedict fiddle while they demo’ed the White House for his ballroom?

        1. Wukchumni

          I dunno, but we aren’t repeating Roman Emperors on a linear scale, as ‘sssssshrubery was Commodus

        2. ambrit

          Since the Divine Claudius lived through the reign of Caligula, was indeed one of the uncles of that Pontifex Dividus, it will have to be an extant American Politico. Given all the other “characteristics” of the ‘original’ Claudius, my best guess is it will be Ioannes Carolus Fetterman.
          Stay safe and SPQR Vult!

    2. The Rev Kev

      Ever since Trump attended Bastille Day with Macron, he seems to be envious and wants to outdo old Europe. No doubt when it is built he will name it the Victory Arch or something. The image at the top of this article will give you an idea what he wants to see-

      https://www.stripes.com/news/2017-07-13/americans-to-lead-bastille-day-parade-in-paris-1526566.html1

      I hope that he does not get the same idea with the Eiffel Tower. He would want it bigger of course but you can bet that such a thing would cost who knows how many billions of dollars and it would probably be located in the main flight path of Washington Dulles International Airport.

      1. Ricardo1

        Sounds like a joke, but is 100% true. Trump saw Putin et al. having magnificent military parades and decided that he wants one too. Ever since he saw Obama getting a Nobel, he wants one so badly. He is a kid that constantly asks his parents to get him stuff that cool kids have, because he wants to be a cool kid too.

      2. Tom Stone

        A larger version of Coit tower in SF is more likely than a knockoff of the Eiffel tower.
        With a Condom inium at the peak.

          1. ambrit

            Here’s hoping he doesn’t get ‘visions’ of that big tower in Dubai. Better yet, a Tower of Babel in Fort Meade, Maryland?
            I would suggest Boca Chica, Texas, but that is the demesne of Elon “Nimrod” Musk, Baron of Space, both Inner and Outer.

      3. illicit

        I hope that he does get the same idea with the Leaning Tower of Pisa. He would want it bigger of course, and at a greater angle. The greatest angle.

      1. Ricardo1

        Nah. He is more like living definition of “one’s eyes are bigger than one’s stomach”. Hence the TACO meme.

  3. .Tom

    I don’t understand a couple of terms in PK’s comment about China’s economy. “whether Beijing’s balance sheet can successfully take on all the accumulated debt, and whether the lower level system becomes zombified or undergoes some sort of collapse.” What is “Beijing’s balance sheet”? Is it that of the People’s Bank of China? And what is “the lower system”?

      1. Polar Socialist

        From last year, in “Understanding local government debt financing of infrastructure projects in China: Evidence based on accounting data from local government financing vehicles”:

        In 2014, the State Council issued the ‘No.43 Document’ that imposed strict restrictions on LGFVs to initiate new debt. In the same year, the ODCCP added outstanding municipal debt as a criterion to the cadre evaluation system. These regulations from the central government might have resulted in some fundamental changes in LGFVs’ debt financing strategy. In 2015, the Amended Budget Law took effect and allowed the local governments to raise new debt.
        Afterwards, the Ministry of Finance initiated a large-scale debt swap program, under which a considerable amount of LGFV debt can be swapped with the general obligation municipal bond issued by the central government. This, to a certain extent, reduces the financial risk associated with local government debt.

        There has been two other policy “corrections”, in 2020 and 2021, but according to the writers the covid epimic masked any effects, so they did not include those.

        All and all, it looks like the central government is aware of the risks and is adjusting policies accordingly. The aim, I understand, is to push the risk to the private sector to a get a clearer signal for more viable LGVFs (with the assumption that the private sector knows better what needs to be done).

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Did you bother reading the two long article we posted on LGFVs? The debt restrictions were eyewash. Debt growth continued. The Chinese have done successive interventions to rescue the related wealth managements products. This problem has not been solved or even much remedied.

  4. Mikerw0

    On the red metal… recall how commodity prices surged into the summer of 2008 on a sea change in demand due to China. This proved to be one of the canaries in the coal mine that something was wrong. My bet is the same thing is happening.

    Futures markets for these commodities are actually pretty thin and they really weren’t designed for speculation. When traders pile in they price is overly sensitive.

    There are real physical constraints on a metal like copper. No major new reserves have been found arguably since the Grasberg (FCX in Indonesia) in the early 90s despite people looking. Kennecott ws supposed to be shut by now, but the higher prices justifies producing from lower grade ores. Even if a major new reserve is found it can easily take 5 – 10 years to start production, against a backdrop of mine depletion.

    1. Wukchumni

      Much was made of getting rid of the Lowly Lincoln, but it’s the Nickel that really has to go, and it ought to be called the ‘Copper’ as 75% of the composition is copper, but the 25% nickel composition is much more dominant looking~

      In terms of cost, it’s about the same amount to print a $100 banknote as to mint a Jefferson Nickel, funny that.

        1. Wukchumni

          One of the weirder counterfeiting efforts was a fellow who minted Nickels, and on WW2 era Jeffersons there was a large P, D or S above Monticello on the reverse, and he didn’t put it there, and they are quite collectible in their own right.

          They are called ‘the Henning Nickel’

          In the mid-1950s Francis LeRoy Henning of Erial, New Jersey minted what is now known as the “Henning” Nickel. He made counterfeit nickels dated 1939, 1944, 1946, 1947 and 1953. The 1944 nickels were quickly spotted since Henning neglected to add the large Mint Mark.

          https://www.error-ref.com/henning-counterfeit-nickel/

  5. The Rev Kev

    “Israeli troops shoot settler suspected of attempted knife attack on soldiers”

    ‘Soldiers open fire on man in his 20s before realising he was a settler with suspected mental illness’

    I ask you. How could they possibly tell the difference.

  6. Pat

    I had to tell a couple of people about Ahmed al-Ahmed. I don’t find it weird at all that his act of heroism is being ignored by most American coverage. It upsets the desired view of the event.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Oddly enough I have not heard the Al-Qaeda President of Syria say anything, even though the guy was Syrian. You would think that he would send congratulations or something but I have heard nothing.

    2. t

      A few fundies are claiming he is a Christian. He could be, I suppose. Haven’t come across a source for the claim.

        1. t

          He may be an atheist who joined a religion for his wife. Unlikely.

          If he were any religion not associated with non-white people, seems like Trump’s team would have included that detail in his remarks about the “brave man” with no name who saved lives.

      2. jonhoops

        His father was interviewed. He is Muslim. The Zionists and their Christian allies were claiming he was a Christian Maronite (allied to Israel) which fits their narrative much better.

        1. The Rev Kev

          Agreed. Saw a video clip of him being transported on a bed in hospital and his father was there and they referred to Allah. Having a Muslim save Jewish lives is really a major problem for any Zionist narrative that they try to come up with.

          1. hk

            Allah is also a name used for God by Arabic speaking Christians and, once upon a time, Arabic speaking Jews, too, so that wouldn’t mean much. The name is a much more obvious clue, I should think–I noticed earlier than Levantine acquaintances are very good at figuring out the backgrounds of other Levantines just from their names (granted, first names are less indicative.)

    3. ChatET

      When you are a member of a group that posts a beheading of a 14 year old boy. I see no heroism except in the groups destruction.

      1. tegnost

        “a group” is kind of vague, maybe a little more information would help with precision, but maybe you’re an ai and so general info is all you’re good for…

        1. ambrit

          I also note a GIGO function at work here. This “correspondent” indulges in that good old fashioned Bronze Age moral imperative; “An AI for an AI.”

  7. Adam1

    IM Doc’s email…

    When I read Trumps text on Reiner I was completely taken aback and could only think that he really has lost his mind. What political figure would say such things publicly. It even made me wonder how many conspiracy folks were going to walk away wondering if it was a hit by Trump that killed Reiner.

    And thanks Doc for your take.

    1. The Rev Kev

      He’s losing his filters and what is coming out of his mouth is straight from his Id. Monsters from his Id I tells ya, monsters from his Id.

      1. Steve H.

        > he has white matter disease.

        Re AI_earrings, yesterday boots linked to this 2012 story (fictional):

        > their brains were curiously deformed: the neocortexes had wasted away,

        Hits like ‘The Ministry for the Future’ chapter one, but a shorter read. Forewarned…

    2. Grumpy Engineer

      Aye. I’ve always thought that Trump was a self-centered, egotistical blowhard. But his impulse control, which was definitely better when he was younger, seems to have deteriorated to the point of severe dysfunction. Trump’s text about Reiner was shockingly inappropriate. And I definitely agree with IM Doc about the omission of information about the brain in the MRI reports and data set. It’s extremely suspicious and makes me even more convinced that there are serious physical issues in Trump’s brain.

      But I wasn’t familiar with “white matter disease”. That’s a new one for me, and it would explain why Trump’s behavior differs from the Alzheimer’s and vascular dementia cases that I’ve seen before.

      1. Dr. John Carpenter

        Same. Obviously something is wrong but he’s missing key characteristics of people I’ve known with Alzheimer’s or dementia. There are similarities, but he seems too functional for it to be either of those. The lack of an MRI, along with the what? three cognitive tests they gave him this year (that we know about), really do tell a story.

        1. Huey

          Sorry, please ignore this, have been trying to post a propper reply a few times now that keeps evaporating and then my browser crashed.

    4. Bugs

      There’s a Vanity Fair profile/interview of Susie Wiles out today and it’s not particularly flattering. Nor is it totally damning. It’s sort of unsurprising, in a sickening way. A quick search will lead you to it. Lots of juicy insider details.

    5. skippy

      White matter disease is more similar to head trauma, albeit progressive vs a one and done. Hence the diminishing executive cognitive/behavioral function.

      Its also interesting there have been a few studies than have linked Covid linkages with recovered patients. So the question begging is what level Trump may have e.g. Vanishing White Matter Disease (VWMD) or Alexander disease at the top end or ?????.

      Best bit is its only going to get more pronounced and how his mob will try to deny it. I ponder if one could do a thesis on how many U.S. high level politicians and business C-suite sorts, over its history, were afflicted, how that has shaped history.

  8. The Rev Kev

    “Australian governments, media target anti-genocide protests over Bondi Beach shooting”

    The usual Zionist suspects are coming out and saying forget tightening gun controls but it is all about antisemitism. This was the line of the leader of the Opposition and even ex-Prime Minister John Howard – and uberconservative – lurched out of his crypt to say the same thing. I can only imagine what laws they would like to see passed based on this idea. Maybe every Muslim in Oz will be required to wear an ankle bracelet monitor – though you would not want the Israelis making them. But this is fogging about what actually happened. Like the fact that the father and son traveled to the Philippines for 4 weeks about a month or so ago where they got training in an ISIS camp. That would explain the presence of IEDs in their car and you can be sure that Philippines intelligence is now checking that out-

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-16/bondi-gunmen-went-to-philippines-for-military-style-training/106148662

    Other stories are coming out like this older couple wrestling a rifle of one of the shooters at the beginning of the attack – caught by the cam on a passing car – but the shooter pulled another gun and shot them both dead. There are criticisms of the police not protecting the Hanukkah event but two police went to hospital for intensive care and it was the police that shot both shooters. One video showed this detective taking cover behind a not very thick, bent tree but managed to shoot the father at about 30 meters with a pistol to which I say good shooting, Tex. And of course blood donations have shot through the roof. I can only wonder what the media coverage is like in other countries.

    1. Mikel

      This line in the article says it all:

      “You need to understand this attack does not serve Iran, it does not serve Muslims, and it certainly does not serve the pro-Palestinian cause.”

  9. DJG, Reality Czar

    Trump tweeting about Rob and Michelle Reiner and their death. IM Doc’s comment as to white matter disease.

    The issue here, culturally and politically: How has the U S of A ended up with two presidents in a row who are noticeably semi-brain-dead?

    Further, and weirdly, is part of their appeal in the current swamp of U.S. political culture that the two of them are so overtly resentful?

    How much of their public meltdowns is the result of social media? Is everyone just too mediaized and too overexposed these days? (I’m thinking of the mediaized public vileness of people like Alex Karp, Peter Thiel, Hillary Clinton, Epstein Whisperer Stacey Plaskett, and Lindsey Graham.)

    Woodrow Wilson had a stroke. So he had an excuse of sorts. But something else is going at a larger level than psychology that puts Biden and Trump in office when they are both impaired.

    [Required disclaimer: This is not an argument for either Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris, who are both ethical swamps lacking a moral compass.]

    1. Cassandra

      I would argue that their sense of resentment and their inability to think critically (or even coherently) make both men easy targets for manipulation. They both have a long history of outrageous unfiltered comments, so when they say the quiet part out loud, people tend to shrug and say, “Yeah, that’s Trump/Biden. Whattayagonnado?”

      They are both convenient faces for the ongoing pillage of America.

      1. Dr. John Carpenter

        Agreed.

        My theory: TPTB love having a puppet in the hot seat who won’t try to push their own agenda, who will autopen anything they want passed and will create enough of a circus to distract from the man behind the curtain. I’ll grant that Trump is more erratic and unpredictable, but it seems to me he’s still mostly playing ball.

    2. Mikel

      “But something else is going at a larger level than psychology that puts Biden and Trump in office when they are both impaired.”

      The kind of characters supported when there is a desire to discredit and destroy institutions.
      Distraction and sabotage are achieved.

      1. JP

        The DNC put Biden in office. It was Bernie’s race. Americans were given a real choice after four years of unacceptable Trump but the DNC decided Joe was to be the front man. It didn’t matter what his song might be. The band behind him would play the tune

    3. Grumpy Engineer

      “How has the U S of A ended up with two presidents in a row who are noticeably semi-brain-dead?

      Further, and weirdly, is part of their appeal in the current swamp of U.S. political culture that the two of them are so overtly resentful?”

      Oh, wow. These are good questions. And I think that your note of “resentment” is significant. People resented Obama’s performance, and we got Trump in 2016. People resented Trump’s performance, and we got Biden in 2020. People resented Biden’s performance, and we got Trump again in 2024. And Trump is clearly building up another big pile of resentment today.

      I’m not sure what it would take to break this cycle, but we’d really be better off as a nation if we could. But so many people are angry right now (with a lot of that anger being perfectly legitimate), and the “us versus them” mindset is pervasive.

    4. longhaul7

      Did Wilson have a stroke ?
      Paris was under the influenza siege in early 1919 (where post-war negotiations were ongoing) and on April 03 “Wilson seemed in fine health until early evening when he was “seized with violent paroxysms of coughing, which were so severe and frequent that it interfered with his breathing” according to his personal physician, Cary Grayson. More, from “the Great Influenza” by Barry: The President took very severe cold last night . . . the beginning of an attack of influenza”. This was what most people refer to as “Spanish flu” and it absolutely had damaging effects to the brain. The neurological impacts of various viruses and their post acute sequelae continue to take a toll on all of us

      1. IM Doc

        Wilson most certainly had a stroke.

        I have taught medical history for decades. Wilson’s story is one of the most important for students to understand and know. There are all kinds of touchstones to the history of our profession.

        In the immediate aftermath of WWI, and also the Spanish Flu, Wilson was actually in Paris with the American delegation negotiating the end of the war and his favorite cause – the insertion of the League of Nations into the armistice talks. There was quite vigorous pushback both in Europe and the Senate in the USA. He was working very long hard 18-20 hour days and those days were intensely stressful with lots of yelling and screaming and politicking. There was no relief. There was a rather severe influenza outbreak in Paris at the time, or at least this was thought to be ( no tests available), and Wilson came down with a febrile illness in early April 1918. It took him down hard for several days. There is great disagreement on what this actually was – some medical records support the flu, others very clearly seem to indicate urosepsis from a bladder infection. We will never know. It took him quite a while to even get back up to normal, and there was a slight relapse in late April of 1918. He never fully got back to being himself. There was another trip back and forth across the Atlantic, and there were multiple weeks of intense pushback to his ambitions from the US Senate and Henry Cabot Lodge. He was under extreme duress and stress this entire time. He became more and more ill and impaired every day. This was before the era when we knew how to reliably measure BP – but accounts at the time read like someone who is having untreated heart failure and this was likely a BP and stress related issue.

        In the summer of 1918, Wilson made the decision to go on a whistle-stop train tour through the entire USA to drum up popular support for The League of Nations. His entire medical team did all they could do to dissuade him to no avail. 20 hour days, speeches in every city, screaming protestors, intense continued negotiation with the Congress, and little care for himself took its toll. After his stop in Pueblo, Colorado, his wife, Edith found him in the VIP car of the train unable to move his arm. Over the evening and night as the tour continued to Albuquerque, he lost the ability to speak. They raced back to Washington, and the rest of his Administration is legendary – we had a completely impaired stroked out president for months.

        This is all from the book “The Health of the Presidents” by John Bumgarner, an internist from North Carolina. As well as many other sources I have read. This book is the single best source for those interested in the subject – it covers all the way through Bush I. Some of these accounts are just incredible.

        1. longhaul7

          thank you – I’d appreciate your take on Barry’s book – but as has been said before, i’m not assigning homework

        2. Alice X

          Wilson traveled to Paris, but not until after the armistice was signed on November 11, 1918. He arrived there on December 13, 1918. The peace conference began on January 18, 1919. The treaty was signed by Germany on June 28, 1919.

          Wilson (with one trip back for several weeks) was in France for six months.

          His medical situations are not in my ken.

          You may have meant 1919 in several dates.

          1. IM Doc

            This is my fault for being distracted –
            Pretty much every where in the above narrative – 1918 should be 1919

            The stroke happened in late September 1919. We effectively had a stroked out president from September 1919 to Inauguration Day 1921.

            Thank you for pointing this out. I make mistakes like this sometimes when I am in a hurry and I do not proofread mindfully.

            1. Alice X

              Ahso and in fact. We have recently experienced a non compos mentis presidente(sic); another is looming as you have ably described. What is to be done? History shows us what has been done (as revealed).

              As a society we may learn little and forget much. As that is the case, the right wing (who value individual wealth at the expense of anyone else, with whatever intrigue) could be happy.

              A gilded age.

              Broad stokes to be sure.

              1. Alice X

                A gilded age.

                In a banana republic. The overlords mount the world. As never before in their minds.

                Alone?

    5. Rory

      For people who wish to see the legitimacy of national government discredited, what better way than to have powerful nations led by the likes of Biden and Trump, not to mention the failures leading the UK, Germany and France.

    6. Glen

      The veneer between those who run the political parties (or the uniparty), and our elected leaders (those selected by the uniparty to run in elections) is wearing very thin. And what we’re finding is that those people (both elected and un-elected) are very rich, but not necessarily very smart, or moral. In fact one could argue that a strong sense of morals really impedes one’s ability to become one of those rich, un-elected elites.

      Now I hate to paint with too broad a brush here because we have elected leaders who are obviously very moral and smart, but to say that the system we have established in this country favors those people is wrong. It favors the very rich selecting our leaders, and this is who they select.

    7. skippy

      Gosh mate this has been going on since time immemorial … only difference is knowledge about psychological/medical conditions humans are – all – subject too. Various Rose coloured glasses bending reality via environmental biases/narratives aside. Topping it all off is the background toxicity that is running parallel with global warming gasses et al. Its like industrial[tm] exposure that presents hard in the latter years and the DNA has a bit of a say on the individual level.

      I know of a specific case of where a home hobbyist spent nearly 20 yrs using a wood sealer on his furniture. Did not/was unaware of the dramas of inhaling it whilst sanding after coating the timber in his small workshop. Then he gets tingling in his fingers and arms. Doc’s say its MS or its ilk, stops his hobby, few years later his symptoms start getting better.

      Posted this years ago but … https://nautil.us/blissed_out-fish-on-prozac-234624/

      Then now days you can whack on all and sundry party drugs people have been doing in the U.S. since the 60s, only gets better with time, bath tub cocktails to offset lack of chems due too regs. Its a vicious cycle. I mean cocaine alone, since its use in the early 1900s, yet today its more in demand than ever and an elite choice. Heck blokes use it to ply the females – see Trump and crew – no need to partake but it makes things[tm] happen.

      There is just so so much more …. I just observe from personal experience and knowledge.

  10. Adam1

    North Adams water main…

    I’m not an engineer, but when someone says, “The loss of the main line caused a drop in pressure, and the pressure changes are causing more breaks.” I’m pretty sure that’s a sign that a good portion of the system has degraded beyond it’s original design parameters and should have been replaced years ago. It’s also the outcome of the American favorite of delayed maintenance to fund tax cuts or prevent tax increases.

    2. mrsyk

      A bit of background. North Adams, MA, located in northern Berkshire County, was a robust manufacturing town with a population of around 20K until the end of the ‘70s, when de-industrialization began to take hold. Sprague Electric, whose former plant now houses the Massachusetts Museum of Contemporary Art, closed in’85, with 4000 mostly union jobs disappearing. Likewise, just 20 miles to the south, General Electric was in the process of shutting down their Pittsfield plant, resulting in the loss of about 13,000 similarly good paying jobs during the end of the ‘70s to the mid ‘80s.
      You can guess at the effect on municipal economics, and to why NA’s public water infrastructure is long overdue maintenance.

    3. Wukchumni

      When I was growing up in LA you never heard about water mains bursting and now it happens all the time…

    5. alrhundi

      A large amount of North American infrastructure is well beyond replacement because the last boom was post WW2 and asset management isn’t really established in a lot of places.

      So a lot of water mains, which are under pressure, are just waiting for any disturbance. You get similar effects when fire hydrants are closed to fast, it creates “water hammer” or transient pressure surges that disturb pipes.

      Sometimes it isn’t public but look up your municipality’s GIS and you can select water mains and such to see their age and material.

      1. Adam1

        I didn’t think of it when I originally posted, but about 15 years ago when I was still new to my recently bought house I put a pressure gauge on my water line right by the water meter. It read 80 lbs/in which is on the high side for most home appliances. But the gauge also had an arm to measure the highest measured reading. I came back a week later and that sucker had read over 120 lbs/in at some point – way beyond most home appliance valve specs. I went out and bought a pressure reducing valve and set it at 55 lbs/in. It actually lowered my water bill too.

    6. Boomheist

      I am thinking that in the coming years now upon us we are going to rediscover interstate bridges all being structurally deficient and see the failure or impending failure of many of the big flood control dams built in the first three decades of the 20th century. In other words massive capital replacement demands which will entirely shock leaders. The only way to pay for any of this is to return to New Deal tax rates and good luck with that…

      1. ambrit

        Or return sections of the country to nature’s complete control. The coastal littoral alone will stress the nation’s abilities to cope to the utmost. A warming world means rising sea levels. And most people live in those littorals.

      2. Wukchumni

        Lake Kaweah reservoir here was opened in 1962, and the intake of 5 river forks includes all kinds of debris, and you wonder just how silted up it is after all these years?

  11. DJG, Reality Czar

    I know that I have been a tear these days about psychology, misuses thereof, psychobabble, and terminology.

    WSWS article is definitely worth your while, describing federal and state government reactions (excuses for oppression) in Australia.

    I note this: ‘ Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar made the demand for political censorship explicit, declaring: “Calls such as ‘Globalise the Intifada,’ ‘From the River to the Sea, Palestine Will be Free,’ and ‘Death to the IDF’ are not legitimate, are not part of the freedom of speech, and inevitably lead to what we witnessed today.” ‘

    In the U S of A, self-appointed censors plan to take Sa’ar’s advice and use “Globalize the intifada” against Zohran Mamdani.

    “Death to the IDF” is especially rich. We are talking about an army. We are talking also about the controversy that Bob Vylan caused to erupt last summer at Glastonbury. But let’s face it, folks, an army isn’t in the business of selling Samoas and Adventurefuls as part of fund raising.

    https://www.littlebrowniebakers.com/index.php/products/adventurefuls

    You have an organization in service to the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but we’re supposed to treat them properly because they are “really” a lemonade stand.

    I will also go out on a limb and point out that I don’t like the use of the word “hatred.” (Note its occurrence in the WSWS article.)

    The word is being thrown around a lot these days. But “hatred” is easy to trot out (I’m so old that I recall Hillary Clinton Diehards saying that she lost because Americans Hate Women).

    PS: As for me, it is a good time to be a writer. To paraphrase the timeless, lyrical Italian poet, Alda Merini, The reason that flies never land is that there is so much shit. Which I can endeavor to turn into manuscripts.

    1. hk

      The Teutonic Knights sold tour packages, so to speak, to Western European nobles where they could join them hunting “infidels,” including, I think, the Baltic side of your family tree, so this is not exactly new.

  12. Biologist

    The new censorship.

    Based in the UK, one of you links* gives me the title but not actual article, telling me it’s age-restricted content. This is from Council Estate Media, hosted on substack. So I need to register my ID to get age-verified if I want to read controversial content. Same thing is happening on Twitter, Bluesky and even Reddit.

    *) “Here is everything the media is not telling you about the Bondi beach shooting”
    https://www.councilestatemedia.uk/p/here-is-everything-the-media-is-not

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Use a VPN. Mine is usually set for a US address and I don’t have those issues.

      Weirdly in the country I am in now, I am not allowed to access the Russian Foreign Ministry site or some other Russian sites but have no problem with a VPN.

      1. Biologist

        Thank you, yes I do use VPNs where needed. It’s just sad it’s necessary. Most people won’t use one and just not bother reading in such cases. The ‘age-restricted’ label is also insidious, suggests illegal or NSFW content, which of course has the desired effect of putting people off.

        (This in addition to sites that are outright blocked via ISPs, like RT.com)

    2. Clankenfoot

      For now or in this particular case archive.ph defeats the age/surveillance wall – https://archive.ph/Q8ESi (one small section obscured by please-subscribe pop-up, which can be got around by selecting all text on the page [CTRL-A] and pasting into a text editor.)

      Note that since the AI webscrape-o-pocalypse, archive.ph almost always hits you with google captchas.

      But yes in the UK a VPN might be a better long term bet than case by case faffing about (until they come for the VPNs).

    3. Greg Taylor

      Google is denying access to its free vibe-coding AI Studio product to anyone accessing through sketchy IP addresses or without adequately verified identity, even if they already have a Google account. Access depends on registering a valid ID if there is any question about who is using the service. VPN access isn’t allowed. I agree with Biologist – strong forms of identity verification are becoming more common.

  13. Carolinian

    Re mad king Don–thanks again IM Doc! Here’s suggesting though that Trump’s frequent sociopathy may also be class based. I’m reading a book about JFK and one of his girlfriends had to show him how to use a taxi because he had always had people to drive him around. Hemingway aside, Fitzgerald was undoubtedly right that the rich are different and think they can get away with things the “little people” cannot. Trump even doubled down on his Reiner comments when asked about them the next day. To Trump anyone opposed to Trump–as Reiner most definitely was and falsely was during the Russiagate frenzy–deserves what they get. The lack of filter was always there.

  14. The Rev Kev

    “Mafiosi commanders, expendable troops”

    When it comes time to write the history of this war, I am sure that it will be found that the main reason that the Ukraine lost was because they squandered the lives of their troops. Fascist regimes often do. Napoleon lost about half a million dead soldiers in his invasion of Russia which he sorely missed three years later at the Battle of Waterloo. Adolf threw away at a minimum about 800,000 soldier’s lives in the Battle of Stalingrad and eventually had to resort to using children and pensioners. And over the past four years I have read time and again of Ukrainian soldiers forced to do meat wave attacks where they got duly slaughtered. And now they are at the point where they have run out of soldiers. Worse yet, it may be questionable if the Ukraine will demographically be a viable nation.

  15. pjay

    – ‘How absolute loyalty to Trump evaporated’ – Telegraph (resilc)

    I take anything from the Telegraph with several grains of salt (as I do any mainstream media source today), but I do think there is something to this story. However, and perhaps not surprisingly, one issue seems to be missing from the article. In discussing the failed Indiana redistricting effort the author says this:

    “The startling display of defiance was the latest sign that the president’s vice-like grip on his party is loosening, amid grumblings in the halls of Congress over affordability, rising healthcare costs and Venezuela boat strikes — not to mention the lingering spectre of the Epstein files.”

    Anyone else see the rather obvious omission? I did not see it mentioned in the article at all. That this is intentional is indicated in discussing Marjorie Taylor Greene’s opposition to Trump with a vague reference to his “adventurous foreign policy.” I don’t doubt that affordability is a major issue, if not the issue, among the MAGA base. But among conservative leaders and pundits the most divisive issue is Israel. That this is not mentioned I find curious.

  17. The Rev Kev

    “Glaciers to reach peak rate of extinction in the Alps in eight years”

    Give a coupla years and you will discover that the only ice that you can find in Europe will be in people’s freezers. Sad, but true.

  18. MicaT

    Pot, so the anti pot thing is back. Related to trumps X order to make it schedule 3 vs1?
    The article is so shallow and misleading
    I have known too many people who have had chemo and the only way they could eat was with some pot to make the nausea go away. I’m sure others do fine on the normal meds. And I should say these are people who never used pot before and as a last resort tried it and it brought the relief they needed.

    There are also known reductions in certain types of seizures. The history of charlottes web is quite well documented.
    Many glocoma patients get relief as well as many other types of needs.

    Do people abuse pot of course. Is pot abuse worse than other hesvy drug use? Not to me.

    I know many people who have tried all sorts of sleep meds and have found pot to work better.

    I’m lumping pot and cbd and many of the new found other elements together because they seem to be needed together in a wide array of concentrations and variations and types. Making testing and trials expensive due to the huge number of variables

    1. Screwball

      I had two close friends battle cancer. One lost, one won (so far) and both told me the best thing they could take for all the problems was pot. We made sure they always had some available, if it was legal or not.

      1. Henry Moon Pie

        I began smoking pot as a college freshman and continued for about a dozen years until it just got too difficult to acquire “safely” as a member of the bar. I took it up again 35 years later because of a chance encounter with some nice folks at a sporting event. Not long after I took it up again, Ohio passed a medical marijuana law, and I looked into because my connection was a little shaky. The law was quite restrictive, and my comment was that you needed to have Stage 4 cancer to qualify, so I went out and got Stage 4 cancer.

        Cannabis worked well on the nausea caused by chemo through the first two rounds (I actually gained weight during the first round), but when I got an intestinal blockage, it was obviously powerless to alleviate my suffering when 3 gallons of black bile accumulated in my stomach, stretching it to twice its normal size. Cannabis has also worked well as an analgesic, so well that I got through 4 surgeries with just Tylenol, cannabis and applied heat–no opioids. That’s pretty remarkable considering the last surgery was so rugged that they implanted pain control in me before surgery, which they removed before I left the hospital.

        So I’ve been a “recreational” user off and on for 55 years and a medical user for 2 years. I still have pain from that last surgery, especially after a relatively active day of walking and sitting, and the cannabis takes care of it without the need for Tylenol, something my liver appreciates. I’ve also found that the right cannabis is helpful for sleep.

        This seems to me like a battle between a rising cannabis industry and the purveyors of other substances aimed at nausea or pain reduction.

        1. Screwball

          Best of luck Henry Moon Pie. My DIL just went through 20 treatments of chemo and then a double mastectomy. She is now cancer free. We are happy as pigs in the mud, but you never know. The pot helped her through this very difficult time. We all made sure she had what she needed, and she claimed it did her a great amount of good.

          That said, I also live in Ohio. Our state government has decided that since we voted in recreational pot last year they need to “fix” it. I don’t know how close you have been following, but it will now be illegal to bring pot back from Michigan. It was always a federal crime, but will now be a state crime in Ohio, whenever the law goes into effect. There are also other limitations but that one is the biggy.

          Michigan has had recreational for several years. Monroe, which is only 11 miles from the Ohio border is the Pot Mecca of Michigan I think. There is over a half dozen stores right off I75 in Monroe. Their prices are about half of what they are here in Ohio. A one ounce bag in Ohio might be $220 and in Michigan I can get the same thing for $100. Vape pens $60 vs. $8. Probably why the Michigan parking lots are full of Ohio plates.

          So Ohio, what are you doing by making this illegal? Trying to keep us from going to Michigan? Well how about you getting your $hit together and we won’t have to.

          1. Henry Moon Pie

            What the Ohio legislature is doing sounds like protectionism to me. I image the pot growers and vendors in Ohio, to the extent they’re different from the ones in Michigan, were the primary force behind that legislation.

            Best wishes for your DIL. I so hate to see young and middle-aged people at the hospital. I was lucky enough to have had little to do with doctors between tonsil surgery at 5 and cancer surgery at 70, so it’s hard for me to imagine what it must be like to deal with cancer treatment while holding a job and raising kids. It would also be awful if you were alone and old.

            Back a half-dozen years ago, I came into four clones from a Michigan commercial grow. There was a Girl Scout Cookies and a Chem Dawg descendant and a couple of Indica varieties. I grew my own from that start until I was too sick to handle the task. So the legalization has worked out well for me, as imperfect as it is. I get a 25% medical discount on Mondays and Tuesdays, and that helps. One thing that’s funny to me is the “dosage,” at least in Ohio. “One day’s supply” lasts me 8-10 days. Every time you purchase some at the dispensary, they tell you how many of these “days” you can still purchase this month. If you were running up against the limit, either you’re selling it or you’re smoking so much that you wouldn’t comprehend what they were saying if you could even manage to find your way to the dispensary.

            1. Screwball

              Michigan is trying to add more tax on Jan 1. You had the 6% Michigan normal sales tax, then another 10% pot tax for a total of 16% They are trying to raise that to 24% but the fight is still on last I checked.

              I’m an hour and 15 minutes from Monroe. That is easy and cheap. Besides, I would stop and eat at my most favorite greasy spoon in Toledo. :-)

              Maybe not anymore. It begs one to become a farmer. Grow tents for indoors are cheap, and if you can do it outdoors the better.

              Ohio hasn’t really spelled out the rules other than we can have 6 per person or 12 in a household. There was language in the bill we voted on about how it must be “hidden” if grown at home, but I haven’t read anything new about that.

              They have a model to our North and can’t figure out what to do. If we had our $hit together Monroe Mecca would out of business in a year.

              But this is Ohio.

  19. Donaldo

    Streamer Sued for Assaulting Gay Robot Futurism. Micael T:

    I first thought this is satire, but it turns out to be real and nothing more than attention whoring, pardon my French. More of a “Mental Health Watch” than “Guillotine Watch”.

  22. Jason Boxman

    In my brief break from untangling an ongoing financial crisis, I offer

    Trump Aide Susie Wiles Says He ‘Has an Alcoholic’s Personality’ (NY Times via archive.ph)

    Maybe useful in conjunction with the other Trump losing his mind notes?

    In interviews with Vanity Fair, Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, said Trump “has an alcoholic’s personality,” called JD Vance a “conspiracy theorist” and concluded that Pam Bondi “completely whiffed” the early handling of the Epstein files.

    1. Henry Moon Pie

      That Chris Whipple must still be quite the charmer to get Wiles that comfortable. I never met Chris, but I did stay at his parents’ house in Old Greenwich once. My future spouse’s and my bedroom had a view of the lights in Manhattan. Chris was a Deerfield roommate of a college roommate of mine, and we two couples stayed at the Whipples on our way to Thanksgiving in NYC even though Chris was not there for some reason. His dad was an editor at Time-Life books, so he ended up in the family business so to speak, though he’s mainly done photo-journalism and documentary filmmaking. Quite something to have such a coup of an interview when you’re in your 70s. Kudos.

      1. Henry Moon Pie

        My spouse informs me that my recollection was off. It was Chris who let us into his folks’ house and informed us that house rules required boys in one bedroom, girls in the other. LOL. Yes, it was a long time ago.

  23. Henry Moon Pie

    Paradox games–

    I was frustrated in my attempts to read the full article, but wanted to comment because I’ve been a player of war strategy games since I was 14 and a player of Paradox games and Sid Meier’s “Civilization” for a couple of decades.

    Obviously, those games when I was 14 were not played on a computer. In those days, a company named Avalon Hill made hex-based board games that attempted to simulate the decisions that faced generals like Rommel and Montgomery (“Afrika Corps”) and von Rundstedt and Zhukov (“Stalingrad”). In these games, the players receive their initial complement of units with a set schedule of replacement and new units based on history. There is little the player can do to change the quantity or nature of his units.

    With the arrival of computers, the hex-based map was retained, but the player’s level of control was greatly increased. The first Paradox game I ever played was “Europa Universalis,” a game set at the beginning of the exploration and colonization period. The player sets priorities for technological and economic development, controls diplomatic relations and even influences cultural development. This level of control moves beyond purely military matters so that the player stands in the stead of a national leader rather than a military chief of staff.

    I’ve also played a lot of Paradox’s “Hearts of Iron” in its various incarnations over the years. The most recent version that I’ve played requires the player to control economic production by deciding when and where to build factories, what those factories should produce (Me 109s or Tiger panzers or consumer goods) and grand strategy decisions like the pursuit or autarky by the Germans or moving factories east by the Soviets. So, in a sense, the player of “Hearts of Iron” is put in the position of Hitler (more Speer) or Stalin or Roosevelt rather than a general or admiral.

    From what I can glean, the author of the article in Links was going to talk about the chats that people use when playing multiplayer instances of the game, and I have never done that. I just play against the game “AI,” and I don’t frequent Steam or Paradox chat rooms unless I’m researching a particular problem, so I can’t comment on the possible radicalizing effects of that setting. What I can say is that playing these games has not turned me into a Nazi or made me any less opposed to war and colonization. I’d also say that the “violence” in these games is very abstract, unlike one of the bloody, first-person shooter games that are far more popular, and which have their origins in military training. I’ll also point out that the version of Civ I now play offers the player the opportunity of “winning” through diplomatic (be elected “World Leader”), scientific (build an interstellar spaceship) or cultural (have your cultural become “influential” over all other civilizations) without ever firing a shot.

    Noting that my other comment on today’s Links is a defense of the medical use of marijuana based on personal experience, I’ll have to admit to being a stoner playing video games, though not in the basement. I expect to spend more time playing these games since football season is already over for me for the first time since 2014. :(

    1. Alphonse

      For some time I have thought that Civilization is incredibly ideological. It’s not deliberate, being rather a reflection of the culture. To be clear I don’t mean this as an attack on the games.

      Civ takes for granted a linear path of technological and social progress (a mechanic that has spread to many other games). Sure you can prioritize this technology or that, but the core assumption is that progress exists, it has a direction, it is cumulative, and it follows a specific course: if you do enough research, you will always end up at pretty much the same destination, and that destination will be better (more powerful) than where you began.

      Civilization allows you to substitute gold (money) for production. Need a tank brigade? You can build a factory to manufacture the tanks over a period of years… or you can make them right now by spending gold. If you reach the point of having built all the improvements you want for your cities, war is the basically the only outlet for excess capacity: the perfect solution to overproduction.

      Money is core to so many games (board games too). Whether you’re playing Demon’s Souls, Red Dead Redemption, Slay the Spire or what-have-you, money is often important to the point that the game can plausibly be seen as working at a job (often killing things that inherently produce value when they die) to make money to buy what you need to win. Most people through most of history lived in a subsistence economy with little or now connection to a money economy, but most games take for granted that the market is a foundational institution in any human endeavour.

      If your primary knowledge of history and the economy comes from games – which I suspect might be the case for more people than not these days – you might believe some pretty strange things. For example, that money, not industry, can create weapons for Ukraine, that controlling the map is the obvious goal, and that there is one true path to progress.

      Again I’m not blaming the games, not even a little bit. Those I have mentioned are all excellent. I don’t think it is their job to teach history or make up for our ignorance. Having dabbled in Europa Universalis, it appears to least resemble what I have described with a diversity of approaches and dynamics. But like Hollywood, seldom able to imagine a world that does not mirror specifically American family and cultural dynamics (so painfully evident in, say, Disney’s animations, to the point that as a Canadian growing up I found them foreign and strange), I think that most games innocently deepen the ruts of our assumptions that our way of doing things is the only way of doing things.

      1. eg

        Lifetime game addict here going back to the Avalon Hill hex based games of the’70s.

        One game that stands out in my experience for its commitment to cyclicality rather than the Whiggish sort of progress embodied by the Civ franchise and its ilk is Barbarian, Kingdom and Empire. If you play a session long enough your polity WILL collapse — one way or another. It’s a useful little momento mori of sorts in this regard …

      2. Henry Moon Pie

        Agree on all those points especially the tech trees.

        While it wouldn’t solve that problem, I do wish the Sid Meier people would come up with a Degrowth version. Start at the present with some state, maybe even some non-state, options to play, and see if you can use the tools available to you–science, diplomacy, military, political–in order to “land the plane” by bringing production and emissions down worldwide without collapsing your society or being conquered by another player as you reduce your military, etc. Civ VI does have an ecological component, as did Civ II, but it doesn’t work the way I’m suggesting as best as I can tell (I haven’t played a version beyond V).

        The game also needs a less crude measure of societal happiness. Maybe import the UN’s sustainable development goals like Kate Raworth did with her doughnut. I think Jason Hickel and friends are working on modeling degrowth scenarios, and maybe elements of that could be included.

      3. lyman alpha blob

        I’ve played at lot of civ myself and agree with your take. As you said it isn’t deliberately ideological – I would describe it as Mearsheimer-esque “realist”. Because much like in the real world, if you try to develop a peaceful civilization that is content to stay within its own area and trade with neighbors, some other civilization will take this as a sign of weakness and eventually attack you. If you don’t want to be wiped out, you must make fairly large military expenditures. The end game does get boring when as you noted, war becomes the only outlet for excess capacity.

    2. Kypck

      Never played those grand strategies, but did spent countless hours on less grand ones (e.g. Panzer General, Total War, Men of War).

      As far as essays and analysis of cultural impact of (vidya) games go, it’s a shitshow trough and trough. Mostly made by idiots, for idiots. I have concluded a long time ago that authors of those don’t even want to understand a phenomenon, but just push some agenda (e.g. games cause mass shootings).

      A historical game won’t make one a Nazi, but may attract those that already are, because it lets them win a war for a change. :) Real brainwashing is in contemporary FPSs where idiots are hyped up to join the military, and kill those pesky Russkies or whomever, in the name of Murican greatness or whatever.

    3. Yalt

      Fellow Paradox and Avalon Hill player here. “Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” was a particular favorite. And I want to take a moment to acknowledge that the friends I played those games with back in the 70s (and since) are also the friends who have consistently appeared at antiwar protests over the last half century.

    4. Alice X

      In my mid teens (early sixties) my brother was into several of those military board games (Gettysburg and D-Day are titles I still recall, I think there was another abstract title as well) and often wanted me to play. I did several times until I won one, and that was that. He picked up his marbles and marched off. It was just a game, and I was not at all into war. Neither was he as it was later proved. :-)

    5. ChrisPacific

      I didn’t get to read the rest of the article either. Whatever the argument is, I doubt that the modern neo-Nazi movement can be laid at the feet of a maker of what are a pretty niche subset of games.

      Crusader Kings 2 is unusual relative to games like Civilization in that it actually models dynastic succession and power relations between individuals. Things do get decided by war sometimes, but going to war requires a casus belli, usually some sort of familial or matrimonial relationship creating a rival succession claim. Religion plays a huge role. Wars can start for territorial or religious reasons, or simply because a king slept with the wrong person and got discovered. You might have a world-spanning empire, but if your emperor dies leaving only an infant son as heir, it could collapse overnight as all your generals vie to secure control of the heir and declare themselves regent. You can invite family members of foreign rulers to your court, or keep them as hostages for good behavior.

      It all adds up to a very different kind of game from Civilization (which, as Alphonse points out, is largely world conquest through resource management) and produces some story lines which, while fictional, feel a lot closer to something like history.

      1. Daniil Adamov

        I far prefer CK 2 (and 3) over other Paradox and, really, most strategy games, largely because it emphasises the contingent and personal factors in history. More appropriate for the period, of course, but frankly I wish games simulating later eras had more of that as well (which does seem to be the direction they are heading in). Human history cannot be reduced to linear progress and rationally optimisable systems. While it is possible to aim for (known) world conquest in the CK games, it always struck me as sort of pointless and frustrating, requiring far too much effort for something that can easily unravel later (though some players seem to like that kind of endurance challenge); on the other hand, it is very good for simulating “survival as a small fish”.

      2. hk

        When I first played CK1 (hadn’t tried CK2 until it was available for free after CK3 came out), I was always miffed when my empire would split apart because “my” heirs inherited different titles that I accumulated while conquering….

  24. Jason Boxman

    Energy bills in US have increased 13% since Trump took office, new report finds (ABC)

    Working link, other was saying it wasn’t found.

    The amount of money Americans are paying for their energy bills has increased since President Donald Trump took office earlier this year, according to a new report.

    In the U.S., electric bills have increased 13% in 2025, according to Climate Power, a climate advocacy organization whose national advisory board features prominent Democratic politicians and activists. Climate Power analyzed data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

    1. Rabid groundhog

      A profoundly dishonest piece of propaganda.

      Eletricity rates are heavily and locally regulated, and price increases now taking effect are mostly based on rulings made before 2025.

      The local policy blunders that make such hikes obligatory such as various “clean” energy grifts, excess regulation, “social justice” schemes and tolerance of inadequate maintenance, were made years or even decades ago.

      1. Henry Moon Pie

        Don’t forget fluoride in the water. It has pernicious effects far beyond our precious bodily fluids as RFKJ will soon reveal.

        Re: those grifts–

        It’s already snowed three times here this winter. Global warming is a hoax! Hurray! I can keep pointlessly driving my giant pickup up and down creeks like they do on the TV.

        Re: your heavy regulation of utilities, you might check out this article about red-state voters being very unhappy with just how how accommodating the Georgia Public Service Commission has been to Georgia Power. Here in Ohio, First Energy bought the Republican legislature to dump the costs of their screw-ups on the ratepayers. Now that’s heavy.

        1. Rabid groundhog

          A perfect example of the point. A wildly expensive, immoral, rube goldberg, ticking bomb, to be run by the likes of Homer Simpson, was built under the guise of “green energy” and “saving the planet” (and never mind what is going to happen to the spent fuel that will be deadly for twenty thousand years give or take) at a cost many times more than that of a simple gas turbine generating plant.
          Sadly, the ratepayers are now realising that the “green” in this scheme will be siphoned out of their pockets, as was the intention from the jump when it was planned during the Obama regime,

      2. MicaT

        Yeah can’t blame this on Trump no matter how hard the TDS people try to

        Of course going forward, reducing the least expensive energy for more expensive is not going to make things better.

        1. tegnost

          No, it’ll take a few years to grok the results of trump.
          It’s not the new american century, it’s the turtles all the way down century.

  25. XXYY

    On the Fundamental Impossibility of Hallucination Control in Large Language Models aRxiv

    I don’t know if academics have a particularly hard time dealing with this issue or what. But there is a difference between language and thinking. LLMs work at the level of trying to match pre-existing symbolic streams that were formerly words (but which have been rendered into fixed-but-arbitrary numbers by the time the LLM starts doing its thing). This is not “thinking” by any stretch of the imagination.

    The written material that LLMs are trained on are merely the dried up husks of some human being’s thinking process, which ideally allow human brain B to infer what was going on in human brain A at a certain time and place. The writing is merely a temporary artifact that allows human brains to synchronize their internal state. Without a thinking and understanding brain at each end, writing is a useless process. Believing that the original thinking is somehow captured by the writing itself is a capital mistake. Similarly, the writings of a Chinese writer are going to be completely useless to me, an English reader, since our brains lack a common understanding that would allow our brains to be synchronized by the writing.

    Being able to mindlessly manipulate symbols is never going to be “thinking” by any stretch of the imagination. We don’t even know what thinking is, let alone how to automate it.

    1. JP

      Indeed, I have always considered any form of communication to be telepathic enhancement. That is, the various forms of communication are tools so that one brain can communicate with other brains. If you went fishing with a Chinese speaker you would be able to communicate and share the activity without language. Discussing philosophy might be difficult but you would still be able to find some understanding of one another. AI can probably recognize emotions by facial expressions but that is not telepathy.

  26. Tom Stone

    Trump has clearly lost it and just as clearly those around him are trying to cover this up to save their ricebowls.
    That worked with Biden for quite a while, however Trump is uncontrollable and we may soon reach a point when those that really matter will have had enough.
    I think a “Heart attack” or a fall down the stairs is more likely than the 25th Amendment as a means of removing him, it would be less embarrassing to TPTB.
    Then we get Vance whose political base is Bloodbags Thiel.

  27. AG

    re: Germany rearmament / economy

    A German-language study by Mannheim University from this summer suggests that economic incentives of the rearmament program are much smaller than officially claimed (no surprise).

    I haven´t yet looked into it. Here summary and German version pdf download.

    Increased Military Spending May Not Lead to Economic Return
    The planned massive increase in Germany’s military spending may contribute significantly less to economic development than is often claimed.
    This is the finding of a new study by economists Professor Tom Krebs, Ph.D., and Dr. Patrick Kaczmarczyk from the University of Mannheim.
    https://www.uni-mannheim.de/newsroom/presse/pressemitteilungen/2025/juni/ruestung-ohne-rendite/

    At least the press release of 2 pages is in English:
    https://www.uni-mannheim.de/en/newsroom/media-relations/press-releases/2025/juni/increased-military-spending/

    I came by the study via below TELEPOLIS BLOG article which moves along established lines of criticism (which is better than nothing.). In the world of TELEPOLIS NATO is superior to Russia and so on and so forth. One source of that bold claim is in all seriousness Statista.
    German version:
    https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/379080/umfrage/vergleich-des-militaers-der-nato-und-russlands/

    However when one inquires the actual sources of their numbers those are behind paywall. I am certainly not going to pay for BS from corrupt think tanks…

    TELEPOLIS:
    use google-translate

    Armaments without return: How Germany’s billions are wasting away
    Germany’s military buildup is generating little economic growth. Instead, it threatens to crowd out key future investments. An analysis.
    December 16, 2025 Hana Qetinaj
    https://www.telepolis.de/article/Aufruestung-ohne-Rendite-Wie-Deutschlands-Milliarden-verpuffen-11116305.html

    1. ilsm

      Exchanging euros for consumption by German soldiers is not the same as euros spent by VW workers….

      The only time euros paid to soldiers makes sense is when the enemy is attacking.

      Spend euros to deter is not same as spending euros bc military Keynesianism or EU policy.

  30. Wukchumni

    Donald Trump files $10bn lawsuit against the BBC Financial Times
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    The shock value has eroded into schlock value on these ridiculous, look at me lawsuits…

    Can this reign of error end sooner rather than later?

  31. Henry Moon Pie

    In the category of more weird and tragic news, an MIT professor and a nuclear physicist and director of a fusion institute, was shot dead in the foyer of his Brookline apartment today. Clearly terrible and awful for his friends and family as well, but I couldn’t help but be reminded of a Keanu Reeves classic. Hey, I lived in Chicago at the time and saw the movie while on vacation at a theater in Lake Geneva when it came out.

  32. Tom Stone

    On a lighter note Ford makes several “Editions’ of their F150 pickup truck.
    The “King Ranch”, the ‘Lariat”, the “Cobra” with 750 horsepower, and the ‘Tremor”.
    Someone in their marketing department has a sense of humor.

      2. Carolinian

        How did an electric Ford 150 pickup ever make any sense? The vehicle itself is a finger poke in the eye of environmental consciousness. The American car companies are far bigger AGW villains than Trump although he certainly is one. After all his vehicle of choice is a four engined jet liner.

        Tesla came along and at least made a stab at a practical electric vehicle albeit an expensive one. If TPTB were really serious about electrics we’d all be driving the Chinese versions that cost $20k. Even before Trump the establishment approach to climate change has been deeply unserious if one assumes we have any control at all over what is going to happen.

      3. Acacia

        A buddy in the industry tells me an EV Ranger is in the works.

        It’s smaller and lighter than the F-150.

  34. AG

    re: Jacques Baud

    Yesterday on NC communistmole alluded to the seriousness even for Swiss nationals.

    On NEUTRALITY STUDIES Pascal Lottaz, a Swiss, mentiond Nathalie Yamb another Swiss national who was sanctioned in the summer the same way.

    Apparently the Swiss bank froze her account and she cannot leave Switzerland or return. So the consequences are severe.

    See Glenn Diesen with Pascal Lottaz:

    Colonel Jacques Baud & Nathalie Yamb Sanctioned: EU Goes Soviet
    50 min.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-feCMFSpRw

    One point of criticism:

    Diesen rightly laments the state in which find ourselves. But he at least in public does never suggest legal counteraction. As I said yesterday there must be ways to take this to court.

    By now we all know the situation here has turned into shit. By repeating it MSM and elites won´t change their views. (As John Helmer said, we are the minority, at least as media presence is concerned).

    So what can we do if its not possible to swing the publicized majority vote?

    By suggesting as Diesen does that the accusations are stupid or at least have to be discussed you´re not gonna achieve anything.

    If the EU Council states that Jacques Baud is spreading Russian propaganda and upsetting European civil society then I demand the Council to explain what it means by this and to prove its point. Because those statements are so fraudulent and obviously fabricated that I deny them the right to be discussed in any serious way outside courts.

    And then we will see it´s a scam.

    Diesen makes the mistake to take these statements serious in a way as if they were meeting academic, legal and scholarly standards which they do not. They are fairy tales. Plain and simple.

    And it has to be possible to prove this in a legally effective manner.

    Any dissertation with such embarrassingly incompetent level of argumentation would be ripped to pieces and the student fail big time.

    p.s. German reporter Patrik Baab wrote a non-fiction book about his tours through Eastern Ukraine. What he was doing was simple, classic war reporting.

    This book turned into a best-seller and then became the reason for his university to kick him out.

    However in court the university was not capable to prove that anything Baab had been saying in public about his work on Ukraine after those voyages was untrue. Thus the university had to take him back. He left eventually but the court followed the evidence.

    Again: this isn´t complicated to understand. Even if it´s called fog of war – when it´s foggy 2+2 still remains 4.

  35. AG

    re: Baud vs. Kallas

    If one looks at the timeline and when Baud said what in public, it becomes pretty obvious that this is a personal vendetta of Kaja Kallas.

    Nothing has changed in Baud´s analysis since 2022 except one thing: He has started to seriously criticize Kallas in his interviews with Nima and Diesen since summer. And that´s why they put him on the list.

    That tells you a lot of the Kallas staff´s incompetence, of how superficially they “analyze” and scrutinize. And what their weakness is. They act personally insulted where there is no room for personal affiliations.

    But that´s why their argumentation is so flimsy and laughable. No court would go along with this.

    1. The Rev Kev

      The guys at The Duran were suggesting that the French had a hand in people like Baud being cancelled. Either way, if I were Baud I would stay in Switzerland and not plan on going to any EU country any time soon.

          1. AG

            Thanks!!!
            (I prefer the non-YT due to those ads)
            https://theduran.com/uk-families-prepare-to-sacrifice-us-eu-draft-terms-to-pressure-russia-eu-20th-sanctions-package/

            p.s. I don´t believe NATO is so much involved. Baud´s analysis of NATO has been around since 2022. Also even the antiwar movement shares the NATO bullshit. Most people who know of Baud do not get into his military details. But that´s where it would hurt NATO.
            Not even people who actually are tasked with this topic get the entire picture. (Around here we really have a very very low level of understanding of these matters.)

            So when Baud e.g. said AFU would have lost even with NATO taking part directly I suspect only a fraction of his followers had taken notice of that. So it´s too special a topic IMO to matter.

            To instead see “downgrading” of concrete high-level personalities like Kallas and media darlings appears much more dangerous than some abstract expert lingo on NATO´s structural weaknesses in ground strategy or AD.

            Unfortunately Christoforou doesn´t expand on the French angle that you point out.

  36. David in Friday Harbor

    Do you mean to tell me that butter isn’t a food group? My pop lived on the stuff to 92, although he gave up Pall Malls at 78 when he had to start paying the “Rob Reiner tax.”

    And now they’ve saying that medical weed is a hoax?

    1. Mark Gisleson

      It’s true: if you give the wrong strains to people, yes, you can keep insomniacs awake with sativas and if you avoid strains heavy with CBDs you’re probably not going to end much suffering.

      Which is not to say that legal weed isn’t dangerous. The authorities have no problem with growers using growth hormones that will, with heavy use, grow boobs on men. Which I believe our divine planners think of as a feature and not a bug.

      Butter, otoh, is the ideal vehicle for transporting cinnamon and honey into your system, making it a memory enabler.

  37. Martin Oline

    Joe Ely died yesterday. He was a solo musician with many albums and a member, along with Butch Hancock and Jimmie Dale Gilmore, of the Flatlanders. Here is a link to a memorial video by Otis Gibbs. Joe Ely tribute.

    Well I left my home out on the great high plains
    Headed for some new terrain
    Standing on the highway with my coffee cup
    Wondering who was gonna pick me up.

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