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Links 1/3/2026

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South of the Border: US Coup in Caracas

Trump says US has ‘captured’ Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife in ‘large-scale strike’ BBC. Larry Wilkerson did say it could be done with as little as a brigade some time ago. This is so so bad. Among other things, China and Russia will go on full war footings. A contact who taught Global South diplomats said right after the strikes began:

“One of my ex students is there. Armed mobs are hunting down Americans.” He added later: “The riots in Iran seem to be petering out as counter protestors are taking to the streets to hunt down the armed provocateurs. 30+ caught so far plus a factory full of women making petrol bombs. It would suck to be them.”

And: “I’m not sure what kidnapping Maduro achieved, they have a VP who will step into his shoes. Does Marchado think she’ll be greeted with rose petals? And on what grounds will she be installed, she wasn’t even in the presidential race. So much for democracy.”

And will the militia blow up the oil wells?

Venezuelan president Maduro captured and flown out of country following ‘large scale’ US attack, Trump says – live Guardian. From its feed:

Venezuela will resist the presence of foreign troops, defence minister Vladimir Padrino said in a video early on Saturday, reports Reuters, as Donald Trump said Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro had been captured and flown out of the country.

A US attack on the country in the early morning struck civilian areas, Padrino said, and Venezuela is compiling information about dead and injured people.

Live: Trump claims Venezuela’s Maduro ‘captured’ after attacks Aljazeera. Live feed. An entry just before 6 AM EST:

Sultan Barakat, professor of public policy at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that the US’s actions in Venezuela signal an end to respect for international law and that it has also given international rivals an excuse to do the same thing.

“This is probably a nail in the coffin of any international agreement. The very principle of state sovereignty now has been taken apart,” Barakat said.

There are reports on Twitter of the US taking the Caracas airport, but I see no confirmation in any live news feed. And we have this from the BBC:

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio anticipates no further action against Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, says a Republican senator.

Mike Lee confirmed Venezuelan President Maduro’s arrest, to stand trial on criminal charges in the US, following a phone call with Rubio.

“He [Rubio] anticipates no further action in Venezuela now that Maduro is in US custody,” says Senator Lee.

Lee adds that the US strikes were “deployed to protect and defend those executing the arrest warrant”.

Multiple explosions rock Venezuelan capital Caracas CNN

Note this tweet is dated just before the strike started. Were the Chinese officials in Caracas when the attack began? Was this part of what drove the timing?

Culture, Science, Medicine

How I outgrew Nietzsche Unherd

The Shared Walk; A Reflection on Jim Holt’s Excursions to the Edge of Thought The One Percent Rule

‘Chinese Peptides’ Are the Latest Biohacking Trend in the Tech World New York Times (resilc)

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Climate/Environment

Glaciers are melting. It may reawaken the world’s most dangerous volcanoes CNN

Wildfire smoke is a national crisis, and it’s worse than you think Grist

Why there’s no escape from Delhi’s biggest killer Sky

How the climate crisis showed up in Americans’ lives this year: ‘The shift has been swift and stark’ Guardian

Forcing lifestyle changes could weaken support for climate action, study finds Independent. Sigh. There will be forced lifestyle changes. You can choose a few now or have even more later. Scarcity and crisis will make them inevitable.

The Well Watchers Mother Jones (guurst)

China?

China must take action to avoid Japan-style deflation spiral, scholars warn South China Morning Post

Taiwan’s £7.5tn secret weapon is disintegrating Telegraph

Beijing appears to warn it could intercept Evergreen ships transporting HIMARS to Taiwan, in war or peace Pekingology

China Arms a Container Ship | Picket/Surveillance | First Strike | Cost Effective | Expendable What’s Going on With Shipping? YouTube

Japan

Pacifist Japan has slowly transformed from exclusively self-defense to a military build-up Los Angeles Times

European Disunion

Christine Lagarde’s pay is 50% higher than disclosed by ECB Financial Times (Micael T)

People in Germany are increasingly worried about their jobs, according to a survey DPA International

French farmer protests: union calls for ‘mass restart’ of action Connexion

The Agricultural Revolt on Europe’s Southern Periphery: Greece’s Warning to the EU’s Federalist Project New Eastern Outlook (Micael T)

Germany begins sending forms to 18-year-olds asking them if they are fit for war as conscription laws come into effect Daily Mail

Finland aims to boost reservist numbers to a million – by raising upper age limit Force News

Aftonbladet’s survey shows: 22 percent of women do not want to have children Aftonbladet via machine translation (Micael T)

Old Blighty

UK government vows to ‘defend’ decision to strip Shamima Begum of citizenship Middle East Eye (resilc)

Jewish groups warned ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending match could be seen as ‘antisemitic’ Guardian

Israel v. The Resistance

Abraham Accords: Less Historic Than Advertised Libertarian Institute (Kevin W). From last month, still germane

AIPAC IS RETREATING FROM ENDORSEMENTS AND ELECTION SPENDING. IT WON’T GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE. Intercept (resilc)

Photos: Thousands march in Turkiye in support of Gaza on New Year’s Day Aljazeera

* * *

At least seven killed as protests spread in Iran ITV. Note that security forces were apparently among the dead.

Trump says if Iran “kills peaceful protesters,” the U.S. will “come to their rescue” CBS. doug c: “I guess a few will be shot from a roof top now?”

Trump Says U.S. Is ‘Locked and Loaded’ if Iran Kills Protesters New York Times (resilc)

Trump’s Threat to ‘Rescue’ Iranian Protesters Is Reckless Daniel Larison

US and Israel Prepping for a New Attack on Iran by Creating a Narrative of Government Chaos Larry Johnson. As much as I like Johnson, I differ with this framing. The US likely believes its PR as in it has convinced itself that there is an opportunity where one does not exist much. Secondly, Bibi’s urgent need to go after Iran now due to cratering US popular support of Israel leads Israel to greatly overhype any supposed opportunities or threats.

Saudi Arabia sets executions record in 2025, putting 356 people to death New Arab (resilc)

Saudis v. UAE

Saudi Arabia backs Yemeni president’s call for Riyadh talks, urges southern factions to attend Anadolu Agency

New Not-So-Cold War

SITREP 1/2/26: Odessa Pressure Peaks, as Zelensky Announces Major Senior Staff Reshuffle Simplicius

Zelensky names spy chief to head presidential office after corruption row BBC

Will Zelensky survive 2026? Events in Ukraine. Leans toward a Betteridge Law violation

Is Trump Just Too Damn Nice? Or is that Putin? Olivier Boyd-Barrett. IMHO buries a key idea, that the recent barrage of press stories, notably a major piece in the New York Times, about the US and Ukraine “separating” is a disinfo operation.

Putin Assassination Attempt Foiled. Trump Threatens Attack On Iran Amid Protest Jamarl Thomas, YouTube. From Helmer by e-mail:

In the Jamarl Thomas podcast I’ve tried to go from the military facts on the ground to the political facts on the ground, and thence to the strategic consequences:
— If the CIA/Ratcliffe are telling the truth and if Trump believes it, then no US agreement on Russian terms is possible in the weeks ahead.
— if GRU/Kostyukov is telling the truth, and the attack was targeted on the President or the nuclear command-control bunker, this triggers Russian nuclear retaliation doctrine. Short of nuclear retaliation, what can Putin do if the American side is determined to go on supporting Zelensky (plus Budanov) and if Trump is endorsing this line? Note that for the exchange of data on the drone operation, the Russian side sent Admiral Igor Kostyukov, chief of GRU military intelligence. The US side sent an unnamed naval officer of captain’s rank who isn’t Rear Admiral Manero, the listed head of the Pentagon’s representation in Moscow — this is a deliberate US insult.
— The Russian side must conclude now that through the drone attack plan on Novgorod, like the June 1 attack on the Tupolev nuclear bomber fleet, the US is threatening to attack more forcefully in the future in the confidence it can overwhelm Russian deterrence capabilities, and with the timing of Budanov’s appoint to be counted as well, the US side is confident it can keep fighting on the front to prevent collapse, keep the regime in power in Kiev for the long term, keep striking at Putin’s and Russia’s vulnerabilities, etc.
Problem in Moscow — what message to send back for effective deterrence? How long to delay before sending it?

I am puzzled by the idea that an agreement with the US on Russian terms is something Helmer sees as possible on any time frame short of having to come to grips with an imminent political or military collapse. Trump is a weak person and President and there are too many opposed domestic factions, even if Trump were capable of sticking to decision, as opposed to falling in with the last person who spoke to him.

Ukrainian Strikes on Russia’s Energy Assets Hit a Monthly Record Bloomberg

Listening to what regular Ukrainians are saying about the war Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

Lithuania is preparing to blow up bridges on the border with Russia and Belarus TopWar (Micael T)

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

DHS Says REAL ID, Which DHS Certifies, Is Too Unreliable To Confirm U.S. Citizenship Reason

Keir Starmer is starting 2026 with a plot to tear up our freedoms with one atrocious move Express (resilc). What if you leave your phone at home a lot, or start doing so if this goes through? We were very keen about Justine Haupt’s rotary 4G phone, but sadly it was not to be.

Imperial Collapse Watch

Global flashpoints: the conflicts to watch in 2026 Nation Thailand

Democracy in retreat amid growing global conflict and aid cuts, warns David Miliband Independent

The Ottoman Empire “Debt Trap”: How Britain Bought The Middle East YouTube

Trump 2.0

America Talks Tough, Acts Lost Paulo Aguiar

4 ways Team Trump reminded us of Bush-Cheney in 2025 Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

* * *

Trump’s Tangled Web of Deal-Making, Policy and Riches New York Times (resilc)

Trump’s wealth grew in 2025, but his investors took lumps Axios

* * *

‘Their first instinct was to loot’: how Trump’s acolytes are plundering the Kennedy Center Guardian (resilc)

FCC Bans Sale Of All Foreign Drones In The U.S. Jalopnik (resilc)

Immigration

ICE Drives Unmarked Cars. This Public Database Tracks Their License Plates. Intercept (resilc)

GOP Clown Car

GOP lawmakers, frustrated with dysfunctional Congress, head for the exits The Hill

Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani’s Message Goes National: Tax Justice, AI, and the End of Austerity Politics Egberto

Mamdani Demotes NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch Ken Klippenstein

Mamdani Revokes Executive Orders That Adams Signed to Support Israel New York Times

Gunz

California ban on openly carrying guns is unconstitutional, court rules Guardian

Economy

World economy in 2026: Three scenarios and a dystopia ElPais

Aluminum prices soar on Trump tariffs, global shortages, and China supply chain moves Kevin Walmsley

Global property bubble watch: Miami, Tokyo and Zurich flagged as highest-risk cities Nation Thailand

Mr. Market is Giddy

Gold and Silver Steady at New Year as Index Selling Looms Bloomberg

Central banks enter the gold trade to choke off smuggling Financial Times

AI

What AI means for the future of policing Axios

The Bezzle

Class Warfare

List of Companies Laying Off Employees in January Newsweek (resilc)

U.S. households more pessimistic on finances despite steady inflation Investing

‘A state of crisis’: record number of Americans are pessimistic about US healthcare system Guardian

Parents Are Going Broke From Their Kids’ Sushi Obsession Wall Street Journal. No archived or syndicated version yet.

WTF is wrong with these supposed adults? Did they never learn the word “no”?

Antidote du jour. John U: “Sierra Newts underwater”:

And a bonus (guurst):

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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232 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “US Coup in Caracas”

    A Fox pundit was saying that Trump had to go into Venezuela because of Hezbollah and Iran, and Russia and China as well. And probably zombie Osama bin Laden too.

    No mention of drugs, narcoterrorists or oil. Sounds like Trump is doing his New Year’s Resolutions early

    -No more Mr. Nice Guy.
    -Bomb more countries.
    -Threaten more countries and their leaders.
    -Sanction more countries and individuals.
    -Listen more closely to the CIA and the NSA.
    -Consult Bibi’s latest wish list daily.

    Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        If it is not a kangaroo court or a military court, wouldn’t Maduro’s lawyers be entitled to the process of discovery? Or will the Trump regime simply refuse on the grounds of ‘national security.’ The charge is smuggling fentanyl but the US states that the bulk majority comes in over the Mexican border so that could make an interesting session on a witness stand.

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          1. Vicky Cookies

            I’ve been reading about that this morning. Noriega’s lawyers argued that the U.S. did not have jurisdiction (mainly) because of 1) the extraterritoriality of the alleged actions; 2) using a ‘head of state’ diplomatic immunity defense, among other methods tried. The court (Southern District of Florida) denied motions to such effects on the basis that, with regard to 1), the impact of the alleged actions being in the U.S.; and for 2), that Noriega was not recognized as the head of state by the U.S.. We might be able to anticipate a similar process here, and I suspect that this is the reason for all the shenanigans with Juan Guaido, who is mentioned as the ‘legitimate’ president in the S.D. NY indictment against Maduro. Here’s a law review article on some of the jurisdictional issues.

            Reply ↓
            1. bassmule

              I’m at a resort uncomfortably close to Venezuela. This morning they announced that all commercial flights are canceled today and possibly tomorrow. Lot of people who were supposed to leave today are pretty freaked out.

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          2. Airgap

            Speaking of Noreiga, we’re in Panama City where we woke up to the Maduro news. All day Venezuelan flags flying from vehicles and draped over shoulders. Horns honking and general happy boisterous yelling and loud music. Tonight big rally in the park. Hundreds of joyful people
            Off to El Salvador tomorrow. Curious to see what the mood will be.

            Reply ↓
          2. Lee

            Legal schmegal, we do it because we can. Or, as Elon Musk put it when saying the quiet part out loud: “We will coup whoever we want.” If the cost of far flung empire is exceeding the benefits to the extent that the U.S. is indeed in a state of contraction from a global to a hemispheric hegemon, it’s not a good time to be our near neighbor.

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          3. pjay

            Yes, thanks. This is helpful in summarizing the legal justification the administration will give for this action. Of course the notion that the “law” has anything to do with this is total crap. Not surprisingly, Turley engages in some whataboutism by evoking Obama’s droning of an American citizen. He has a point here. But perhaps a more significant point is that Noriega actually was a notorious drug trafficking facilitator. We know this because a lot of it was carried out in conjunction with our war against the Contras. As long as he was OUR drug trafficking bastard that was ok, but when he became a little too “independent,” well… In Maduro’s case, on the other hand, a lot of this is almost certainly trumped up (or made up) bulls**t. Will that matter? Of course not. But listening to Trump preen about this, and “Attorney General” Bondi preen about Trump’s preening, is too much to take. Turley’s overview is useful in depicting administration strategy, but let’s not give this any “legal” cover.

            Reply ↓
            2. lyman alpha blob

              That’s a very important distinction about Noriega. I could be wrong but my recollection from the time was that the US sponsorship of his prior illicit activities was not brought up during his defense.

              Reply ↓
      2. ilsm

        Slim pretext to war on a sovereign state.

        Supposed Kim Jung Un decided Taipei dealing drugs, or elections rigged and shot a few nukes at Formosa. On Japan for old grievances.

        Or Putin relieve Kiev of drug addled Zelenskyy.

        I am sure Trump is aware of Thucydides Melian dialogue…. the weak endure.

        Reply ↓
        1. rfdawn

          In a prior situation of no real urgency, skipping congressional authorization with a claim of presidential authority to “protect and defend” doesn’t seem entirely valid to me neither. But the US military chose to accept or pretend that it is, so here we are. Wherever “here” may be!

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        2. Paleobotanist

          Ah but in the long term, Athens destroying Melos so disgusted and frightened the rest of the Greek city states they openly or covertly supported Sparta when it conquered Athens. Payback has always been a b*tch.

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        3. hk

          And, as Athens found out eventually (not that many years later, really), the formerly strong become weak.

          Different country (although still in the Med world), but….

          Vae victis, said Brennus a long time ago. Hardly anyone remembers who Brennus was, but plenty of people do remember the “victis” of that tale.

          Reply ↓
    2. Juice

      Bibi’s wish list is neo-con wishlist masquerading as Bibi’s wishlist to give the impression that America is a mere victim of foreign influence in all the bad things it does. That America is under the grip of Stockholm syndrome is MAGA substitute for Wilsonian Idealism.

      Reply ↓
    3. Louis Fyne

      at this early stage, it **smells** like the US/CIA had a line with someone(s) in Maduro’s inner circle or subordinates.

      $10MM, a homestead, and citizenship in Miami is infinitely preferable to being collateral damage in a Predator strike.

      Of course, DC will take the wrong lesson from this:ie. it turned out ok; but Next time things might not be so lucky

      Reply ↓
      2. ISL

        Ummm, it’s a bit early days, from a historical point-of-view, much less a current geopolitical point-of-view, to assess “it turned out ok.”

        Just sayin.

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      1. .Tom

        So it sounds a bit different now. Not a one and done. Trump said (roughly, I’m typing as he speaks)

        We are going to run the country until a proper judicious transition can be made. We are going to have big American oil companies come in and renovate the under-performing oil infra. And we’re ready to perform another military operation, much bigger if necessary.

        Exactly how they make that work, against Venezuelan popular resistance, isn’t clear yet.

        Reply ↓
        1. .Tom

          That was weird. Trump, Hegseth, General Dan Caine, and Rubio spoke. Only Trump spoke of taking over and running the country. Robio spoke only of prosecution of Maduro. Caine spoke about the operation and Hegseth was vacuous.

          It seemed to me that among those only Trump appears to believe in a future in which the USA administers Venezuela and takes the oil. At one point he seemed to talk as though he believes Delcy Rodríguez will be his puppet and that she will be able to run the country according to US will. Asked by reporters more than once how the USA is to force its will on Venezuela if it has its own ideas, he clearly had no idea; just hadn’t thought about it.

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        2. Yalt

          They don’t expect popular resistance. Much as in Iraq, and for much the same reasons–we tend to think the diaspora is representative.

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        3. pjay

          Yes. I’m not clear how “we” are going to run the country. Who is “we”? Is Venezuela inviting us to set up a ” coalition provisional authority”? Maybe a Nobel Prize winner can be brought in to head it up.

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          1. .Tom

            A reporter asked about Machado and Trump dismissed her as politically unpopular. He seemed to be clear that she’s not the one. I got the impression (see above) he thinks Delcy Rodríguez will be the puppet.

            Reply ↓
  2. NN Cassandra

    Is there actual proof they captured Maduro? Like mugshot and court papers, if they say he will stand trial. All I have seen are just rumors and Trump’s claim.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      You do not make such a big claim and have it not be true.

      The government has said they do not know his whereabouts and has demanded proof of life. Russia has expressed grave concern and demanded “clarification” of his situation.

      Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      Maduro and his wife have just been indicted in a New York court-

      ‘In a statement on X, Bondi said Maduro and his spouse had been indicted in the Southern District of New York and charged with “narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machineguns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machineguns and destructive devices against the United States.”’

      Machine guns? Are they talking about the Venezuelan defence forces here? And why did they not mention fentanyl importation which was supposedly the cause of this war?

      https://www.rt.com/news/630404-maduro-indicted-new-york/

      Reply ↓
      1. Pat

        I realize that Iwill never be on the jury, but afaiac since Maduro was taken in Venezuela AND American gun laws do not apply in Venezuela, they or their security forces having machine guns would not be illegal. In fact the only illegal weapons would be those of the forces who took them. And no nothing Bondi or her minions put forth would change that for me.

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        1. ChrisFromGA

          I would like someone on Congress or maybe Jonathan Turley to explain how a US federal court has jurisdiction, here.

          No crimes were committed in the US. And there is no evidence of probable cause, nor an arrest warrant issued by a fair and impartial judge, etc.

          I know we did the same thing to Noriega but “for instance” isn’t proof, two illegal acts don’t make a legal one.

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          1. hoki_haya

            Exactly. Plenty an international lawyer dissecting the issue as we speak. As far as i can see, it’s impossible to claim jurisprudence and should be thrown out by any fair court.

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              1. tegnost

                Right between the bearded lady and the deep fried twinkies wrapped in bacon, you know, on the court where the clowns play pickleball…

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          2. ClarkT

            Turley explained that Maduro was indicted for drug trafficking and gun crimes in the S.D.N.Y. in March 2020. There was an outstanding arrest warrant from that. I had no idea. At any rate, Turley says that Maduro will make the same arguments that Noriega did.
            (The link got away from me, but somebody linked in it the comments above.)

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      2. Ben Joseph

        Sovereignty is dead. In the good old days, the spooks would have to get some local citizens to perform the coup. Because it was their country. Now they don’t even have the rights to their own gun laws!? The southern district of New York claims jurisdiction over foreign leaders having weapons in their own country. No one can actually believe that…

        Reply ↓
        1. Kouros

          Sovereignity is not dead if you can defend it. I don’t see anytime soon US trying to do the same with Kim Un Jung, on a North Korea with nukes and a defence agreement with Russia and China.

          Heck, I don’t see that happening in Iran anytime soon. Especially since there the state administration seems to be quick on its feet, with all those killed generals immediately replaced. Didn’t even work with Hezbollah or Hamas.

          Reply ↓
  3. ocypode

    Reading opinions on Venezuela, it just strikes me as a really strange operation. Supposing Maduro was kidnapped by the US as Trump said, what exactly does that accomplish besides making him into a sort of martyr? It’s not like the entire bolivarian movement or the state will simply disappear once Maduro isn’t in the picture. Furthermore, taking into account what Yves’ contact said, it seems like the Venezuelans would want revenge by butchering whatever Yankee they can find, which would not be a pretty picture. If this is the case, what will news pundits say? “Look at our boys getting massacred”? Do they want boots on the ground? Does the US even have realistic capabilities for such a war? Together with Ukraine and Iran (not to mention Taiwan), by the looks of it?

    Very strange, and very ominous. 2026 is off to quite the start.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I had opined earlier that Trump needed a “one and done” like his face-saving obliteration attack on Iran. If they were trying to achieve something like that with this operation, they are even more high on their own sense of power than I thought.

      Reply ↓
      1. ocypode

        If so, this is utterly bananas. Iran could work as a one-and-done because it technically was a war between war-exhausted Israel, that wanted to sue for peace (as it quickly did) once buildings in Tel Aviv started becoming piles of concrete, and Iran, that wanted to preserve whatever peace it could in the region and regroup after the nasty bruising from spies and the like. The US there was ostensibly a third party that was not directly involved, and thus the bombing of the Qatar airbase was sufficient for all to save face.

        Venezuela is in a life-or-death situation of either engaging in total revolutionary war (something akin to a levée en masse) to save the government or capitulating and becoming a colony. And this is against the US, not a third party that blame could be deflected to. Can they even sue for peace, even if the leadership wanted it to? I can only imagine hardliners taking power.

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      2. Aurelien

        I this you are right, to the extent that, in politics, it’s always worth asking what else could have been done, and of course that would have been a full-scale invasion and a costly and futile war. On the other hand, Trump had boxed himself into a corner, and doing nothing was not an option. This episode, whatever it was exactly, will enable Trump to say that the crisis is “resolved” in the US’s favour, and move to his next obsession. This doesn’t need to be true. All that is needed is to act as though it was true.

        Reply ↓
        1. ocypode

          You’re not wrong, but don’t the Venezuelans get some say as to whether it’s over or not? Iraq sure didn’t end after Saddam got out of the picture.

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          1. Daniil Adamov

            If Americans don’t occupy Venezuela (a possibly tempting but extremely stupid move), what can the Venezuelans do? Other than request help from other countries that may or may not come. I suppose they could start striking at American targets, but I’m not sure what their capabilities are in that regard.

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            1. jsn

              At least we’re not creating chaos in Asia, Africa or Europe with this!

              Make America a Great big mess Again!

              Not that we’ve ever really stopped.

              Reply ↓
          2. jsn

            Right! I expect this to work out as well as all our other recent decapitations.

            Syria, Iran & Hamas are all working out just as planned, right?

            Reply ↓
      3. .Tom

        Given what Mike Lee said and reported Rubio as saying, that’s what it looks like. The military resources were deployed in order to protect those executing the arrest warrant. Now that’s been done and Mr. and Mrs. Maduro have been indicted in SDNY, “Rubio anticipates no further action against Venezuela”, so the US Navy can now leave.

        I’m interested to see how international commercial and state news and political leaders in other countries will opine on all this. For now I guess they are waiting for the official line on what they are supposed to think to be delivered. That seems to be the implication of what Starmer has said (according to BBC):

        Starmer said: “I always say and believe we should uphold international law.

        “But I think at this stage [in a] fast moving situation, let’s establish the facts and take it from there.

        “I want to establish the facts first. I want to speak to President Trump.

        “I want to speak to allies. As I say I can be absolutely clear we were not involved in that.”

        Reply ↓
        1. Yalt

          I want to establish the facts first. I want to speak to President Trump.

          That’s a pair of sentences I never thought I’d hear anyone say. Not even Keir Starmer.

          Reply ↓
      4. hoki_haya

        in a rare moment of levity in the last hours, one in our meeting joked, ‘Trump’s cosplaying as what he thinks CCP used to be: ‘we will manage it, and manage it effectively!”

        what a shambles. white house posts pictures of captive maduro in sweats (why not just put a hood and collar on him, lynndie?). rubio, who still has trouble speaking confidently in public, waits in the wings with the purse strings. hegseth stands at attention – a level of attention expected from your basic ken-doll.

        beacons of democracy. be sure, ‘opponents’ are aware the gloves are off, and that they are indeed considered ‘opponents’. any slight goodwill generated is gone.

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    2. hk

      Yeah, pretty bizarre announcement by the admin talking heads that US is now done with Venezuela: I guess no one told them that Venezuela is only beginning vis a vis US, not to mention about a hundred or two countries and myriad of interests around the world, including those in US.

      Reply ↓
      1. hoki_haya

        tho there have been several, this is the largest foreign policy blunder since the invasion of Iraq. global diplomacy and international law, any effort or progress made in recent years or the last two decades, is dead in the water.

        ‘we run every jungle,’ is what this action says. it cannot be seen otherwise.

        Reply ↓
    3. DJG, Reality Czar

      ocypode: What I am getting is a déjà vu of Libya — kill off Ghaddafi and make a desert and call it peace. There is also some similarity to Iraq — shock and awe, capture Saddam Hussein, make a mess of the occupation.

      It indicates to me that the Washington elites are stagnant and semi-comatose from their own corruption. It indicates that the U.S. military is risk-averse, confused, and overstuffed with dollars.

      It indicates to me that Marco Rubio and the Cuban “immigrants as a weapon” community are the new Ahmad Chalabi.

      As a number of people are pointing out, once the Venezuelan government names a successor, what is the purpose of kidnapping Maduro and putting him on trial on false charges? It’s going to be like the current (oh, well) Tyler Robinson trial.

      And I won’t even mention: Where are the Democrats? The liberals who support the Ukraine adventure, “anti-semitism” crackdowns, confiscations in the West Bank, and eterno-blabbing from Hillary Clinton.

      The rotted structure is now exposed for all to see.

      Reply ↓
      1. hk

        Christmas in Kabul, 1979, is what this reminds me of. That worked wonders for USSR in the following decade, eh? Will USA even exist any more in 2036?

        Reply ↓
        1. ocypode

          In all fairness, the Communist Afghani government lasted longer than the USSR itself. So technically they kind of got a war goal, I suppose. If miss Nobel gets dropped on Caracas I’d be surprised if someone didn’t kill her in a week.

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      2. pjay

        – “The rotted structure is now exposed for all to see.”

        Indeed. I’ve long been saying that nothing surprises me any more. Yet if these reports are true, I am surprised that this has occurred in such a blatantly thuggish, absolutely criminal way.

        Regarding your Middle East analogy though, I’m not sure. Balkanization and chaos was the neocon goal for those countries. That served – serves – the purposes of both Israel and the US. But I’m not sure that is the case for the US in Latin America. I think we are about to find out just how deeply the Bolivarian movement has penetrated the military and the citizenry of Venezuela. The absence of widespread public support for “liberation” kept us out of little Cuba for a long time. But this is a bigger prize, and a crucial one for our new “Monroe Doctrine.” I’m very curious about what kind of insider help the US had in this coup, and how the Venezuelan public will react.

        As to where the Democrats, “liberals,” “liberal” media are… yeah, we’re about to find out how despicably worthless they are. I can hear them now. “Yes Maduro was a brutal narco-criminal illegitimate dictator … but gosh, maybe we should have used a different method…” I can see Bernie making such a statement any moment now.

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        1. juno mas

          Yes. As Patrick Lawrence said last year: “we are the bad guys!”. Pat, it’s worse than you think: “we are the F=-=ing Outlaws”. The US has been promoting a weird “freedom and democracy” to the world since Korea (1950). I feel trapped.

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      3. .Tom

        > what is the purpose of kidnapping Maduro and putting him on trial on false charges?

        Maduro’s prosecution is now the pretext for the whole stupid stand-off and for ending it.

        Reply ↓
    4. The Rev Kev

      The guys at The Duran were suggesting that this operation might be like what happened in Syria. That elements in the Venezuelan government made a deal to give up Maduro. They may have a point as I have seen a video of US helicopters flying over Caracas with no sign of anti-air missiles or even manpads in action. A lot will depend on wheat happens in the next few weeks but one thing is fairly sure – US regime change operations usually end up bloody and messy and none go as planned no matter how successful they look at the start. The US may fly in Machado in the back of a transport plane to try to take charge but will she dare show herself in public?

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      1. vao

        I presume that Maduro had a sizeable security detail comprising well-armed and trained personnel, and he was housed in well-protected premises. If those bodyguards and soldiers did not put a fight, then this may indicate Syrian-like treasonous machinations were at play. I suspect we will learn not learn the truth for quite some time though.

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        1. communistmole

          I watched some Fox News on Rumble, and they’re already starting to talk about how the US can’t just let the Maduro cronies stay in power.

          Reply ↓
          1. ocypode

            And how exactly do they plan on accomplishing that? Kidnapping the entire government corps of Venezuela? Will take more than a few helicopters, I’m afraid.

            Reply ↓
            1. Cat Burglar

              They may be confident that they have enough CIA assets in Venezuela to manage the post-attack political situation and transition to a democracy that for some reason does everything the US wants it to do.

              Reply ↓
      2. Roland

        My first thought is that Maduro got betrayed. How else to explain the apparent ease with which he was captured?

        My first impression might be wrong. Maybe reports will come in about a ferocious battle that was fought. But right now this looks like a Judas job.

        Reply ↓
        1. Keith Newman

          @Roland, January 3, 10:34 am
          Looks like betrayal to me too, to be confirmed, or not, soon enough.
          In Iraq the US bought off the top military leaders so there was relatively little resistance to the US attack despite prior reports that Iraq would put up ferocious resistance.
          I see this a major win for Trump et al. Sadly. They get the navy out of the region, there were no US casualties, they prove they can take out any leader they want when they want in Latin America even those that have Russia/China/Iran supporting them diplomatically. Mark Sleboda pointed out a couple of months ago that Russia/etc. would not provide significant military support.
          It’s true the Venezuelan government remains but the US message is we’ll take you out if we want to. What choices will the remaining government and the Venezuelan people have? Resist and have parts of the country’s infrastructure and many people destroyed? Maduro already accepted to make the country’s resources available to the US.
          It also sends a powerful message to the leadership of Cuba, etc., that they could be next. In the 1960s the Soviets stood by Cuba and let it be known an attack on that country would mean nuclear war. This is not the case today.
          It’s true internationally the US will look like a bullying imperialist. So what else is new?

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          1. Polar Socialist

            There are now reports of one US airplane and several helicopters taking hits, and the “extraction” team apparently had to fight their way in and out.

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    5. Es s Ce Tera

      What I want to know is what was the basis or rationale for kidnapping Maduro’s wife? Is she detained and held without charge? Under what legal framework?

      Detaining her strongly suggests the US is officially of the view that women have no agency apart from their husbands, they are property, appendage, extensions of the husband, do not have or are not to have free agency.

      It’s a very primitive world view which sees the wife as an extension of the husband.

      Reply ↓
      1. vao

        The rationale is the same used by every military dictatorship in Latin America: abduct somebody very close to a person of interest (wife/husband, child, parent, sibling) and then use that hostage to pressure that person into submission. Aka “So Mr. Maduro, do you really want your wife to spend a six-times life-sentence in the Angola penitentiary (or whichever is the equivalent for female prisoners) for participation in a joint criminal enterprise? We could be lenient if you would just cooperate with us.”

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        1. Es s Ce Tera

          Let’s stipulate you’re correct, are we to surmise that this therefore is the official stance and practice of the US government? They agree with those military dictatorships that this is how a government should comport itself?

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          1. vao

            Those military dictatorships are now history, but don’t forget that many Latin American officers trained at the School of the Americas went on to practice “questioning” skills in their home countries (Brazil, for instance).

            So this aspect is nothing new.

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            1. Es s Ce Tera

              Well, given the US tortures, it’s only a minor step to also be hostage taking, right? No different than the dictatorships mentioned.

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    6. David in Friday Harbor

      This is of course “an overly-dynamic situation” but it all comes down to Let’s kick their ass and take their gas. Trump as much as said so in his presser, that U.S. oil companies are to “run” Venezuela (I wish them luck with that).

      Where is the McResistance? Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who speaks for the tiny cabal that has hijacked the DNC, is already praising the “capture” of “the brutal, illegitimate ruler” Maduro while playing lip-service to complaining about process.

      The CIA is claiming to the NYT that they had an asset tracking Maduro’s every move. Did the Wagner Group sell him out? The Prigozhin affair showed their penchant for dishonor.

      The indictment is a classic Pam Bondi farce — supposedly the Maduros’ unlawful acts were providing arms to the FARC in Colombia, who facilitated cocaine production and distribution in Colombia, not Venezuela. Quite an evidentiary leap.

      The only logical conclusion that I can come to this morning is that the United States is ruled by a selfish and degenerate dictator who should have been sentenced to a stretch at Rikers Island, but for the already well-established doctrine of elite impunity and the comprehensive breakdown of the rule of law in the wake of the 2008 financial collapse that prompted the birth of this blog in the first place.

      Reply ↓
  4. Valiant Johnson

    The inevitable effect of the new defense/offense paradigm is taking place.
    USA must exert complete control over the entire western hemisphere before any polity can acquire area denial weapons (anti-air/anti shipping). See Yemen.
    It doesn’t matter who is in “power”, this is existential. Without control over at least the western hemispheric supply chains, maintenance of our oligarchic system will collapse.
    Brazil is next in line.

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    1. Wukchumni

      When Ecuador was going through hyperinflation, the USA shows up to make their economy $-denominated around the turn of the century, and I’m thinking they won’t waste much time doing the same in Venezuela, as it Dollarizes their oil reserves, just like it did in Ecuador.

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        Maybe like Iraq they will demand that all profits from oil sales be deposited in a New York Bank account. And then the US will disperse that money back to Venezuela with more and more strings attached over time.

        Reply ↓
          1. The Rev Kev

            That was actually meant as satire. Frankly it all depends on what happens in the next few weeks. The US is not going to walk away because all that oil is still there along with all sorts of valuable resources. Trump is too greedy and wants to control it all and at a minimum tens of billions of dollars has been spent on this operation. So you might have the present government sell out and let in somebody like Machado to run the country but if they resist, then there will be more attacks. And until they shoot whoever was in charge of aerial defenses, there will likely be more attacks.

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            1. ISL

              WRT the valuable resources, they still need refining in China which has a near monopoly.

              WRT the oil, US refineries long ago shifted off the Venezuela blend, I doubt they will shift back for at least a decade if not longer – it takes four or five years to retune a refinery during which time, one is NOT making money, and who knows if the oil will ever show up or instability will prevent its production / export. This means the oil will go to China for refining.

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              1. tegnost

                socialism for Venezuelans must be countered by socialism for oil services corps schlumberger and halliburton, rio tinto and the miners will get infusions as well. It will be sold as “investing in venezuela”. It’s disneyland. The stocks will pop long before the production come on line. This is the plan…whether it works or not remains to be seen. I don’t know how anyone can get good info from venezuela, and I won’t be watching face the nation tomorrow hoping to find out…

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                1. tegnost

                  Further to face the nation, I predict an announcement re the aforementioned investments tomorrow on the news shows to boost wall st, the only important street in america. Of course no one would or should take investment advice from me and this prediction is a shot in the dark not unlike “brock purdy will throw 5 interceptions and fumble twice” in tonights big game..oh thats right, it’s playoff time, the prime recruitment platform for the services!
                  Am I wrong to expect some jingoism?

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    2. southern appalachian

      It may be that this rips away any vestige of soft power that emerged at the end of WWII. Hard to say land of the free with threats to free speech and assembly, and with masked soldiers in our cities. And hard to claim land of opportunity with increasing inequality and decreasing life expectancy. Then the support for genocide, weaponized tariffs, seizure of foreign assets. Hard to walk something like that back. And countries will rethink a lot of things as a result.

      All we have on offer, then, is surveillance and force. Long term, I’d guess frequent attempts, some successful, to neuter our control by forming partnerships with China and Russia. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Wagner Group operating in a few countries in the next 10 years.

      I don’t know, but I can’t imagine we in the USA have the capacity to fight a Ukraine style war if forced to in a place like Honduras or El Salvador. Or Venezuela. I think this was a big fork in the road – not the only thing, but when we look back on it some years from now, assuming still around, this will look definitive, and not in a good way. My guess.

      Reply ↓
      1. Michaelmas

        southern appalachian: I can’t imagine we in the USA have the capacity to fight a Ukraine style war if forced to in a place like Honduras or El Salvador. Or Venezuela. I think this was a big fork in the road – not the only thing, but when we look back on it some years from now, assuming still around, this will look definitive

        If I were a betting man, that’s the way I would bet.

        In effect, the US may be putting a big sign up and saying ‘come get my behind because I’m a failing empire that’s increasingly vulnerable here and elsewhere in Latin America’. Easy to see China and Russia doing that.

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      2. bertl

        I can only think that this will result in two things: first, whether or not the US had collaborators in Maduro’s government, Hugo Chávez’s dream of Bolivarianism will become the dominant political force in Latin America and the primary expression and organisational basis of a unifying anti-Americanism; second, the collapse of American power internally and externally – overseas military and intelligence bases are less a means of power projection and are ideal targets.

        Anti- Americanism will also be the dominant ideological anti-élite political force in Europe and there will be fundamental changes – whether through violence or the political process – in individual states, and Russia will be seen as an acceptable and necessary economic, political, and military partner by those states.

        I’ve been listening to the two As on The Duran and I think they seriously underestimate the role that China and Russia will end up playing in assisting the Chavistas in Venezuela and the Russians, Chinese, North Korea and Iranians will welcome this opening of a new front absorbing the US’s military while they consolidate their relations with other powers in the event that the US is enticed, by internal or external actors, into opening up other fronts.

        As an early Boomer, I remember long conversations within my family and between their friends and aquaintances discussing how the UK continued to exhaust itself, thanklessly, trying to hang on to the remaining fragments of the Empire, and I have watched US President after US President, from Johnson the Trump, playing the post-war role of an uncomprehending Anthony Eden living in his own version of virtual reality.

        Reply ↓
  5. ACF

    Regarding the sushi parenting
    The WSJ had another article recently that blew my mind talking about FAFO parenting and what they described as such, to me, was ordinary parenting where ordinary consequences happen.
    No abuse, no violence, just basic: I’m the parent. It’s my job to be in charge and teach you how the world works while empowering you to succeed in it, which includes teaching you how to make decisions that enable you to have a happy and fulfilling life. Calling that FAFO parenting is crazy and must be a class marker. No one in the blue-collar parenting world would consider the behavior described in the article as FAFO parenting.
    Based on the headline, I was expecting the article to describe a return to corporal punishment

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    1. Bugs

      The source code for the current sushi craze is the flash freezing tech that lets them sell fish for a lot longer than authentically raw fish. They also use too much rice and a sweeter rice vinegar than the traditional one. And they serve it with sweetened soy sauce. A selection of highly sweetened Japanese soda is usually on the menu. This ain’t no Kaiseki in Kyoto.

      It’s like anything else that the American food industry gets its claws into. Make the product addictive, increase margin, make the sales process friction free, rince & repeat.

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      1. Yves Smith Post author

        In the US, it is not a craze. It is an FDA requirment supposedly to prevent parasites. All sushi is like that now. As someone who ate a lot of sashimi back in the day, I can very much detect the difference.

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        1. Bugs

          Agree on the taste. It’s like the sea brine odor and iodine disappeared, replaced with a kind of vague fish-soup slop. Individual fish are almost indistinguishable, except for the mackerel. Didn’t know about the FDA req’t. Need to read about that.

          @DLG – sushi shops are mostly Chinese-staffed in France as well, except for the chains, which are truly awful. Most of the recent Chinese arrivals (and business owners) in France come from Dongbei, displacing the long-established Wenzhou origin diaspora. Their restaurants are also better.

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          2. Acacia

            Shortly after it first opened for business, I went to “Hokkaïdo” for sushi in Paris.

            Upon payment after dinner, the receipt that came out of the Carte Blue device showed a different name, different address, and “restaurant coréen”.

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          3. Skippy

            I was lucky in the 80s to have a side/second job at the Redondo Pier, CA. Quality Seafood shop – http://qualityseafood.com/historic-los-angeles-seafood-market/

            I mean that place had everything, live in tanks, shell fish from everywhere [ NZ green lips in the 80s], stuff flown in 24 hr from all over the world. The head fish monger was from Japan, had the knowledge [tm] and quite cheeky. One day an older refined fussy lady was banging about wanting “The Big Fish”, after pointing at many only too hear no, he grabbed a big one by the tail which he held below the counter top and the rest on the table, out of her sight but not the boys behind it. Held it right next to his groin and then asked in a loud voice – for him – is this the “big one” you have been looking for ….. she exclaimed yes yes !!!!! … I think half the staff involuntary hit the floor attempting to suppress the laughter …

            WOW that place was so manic, Maori wanting to stick hands in live tanks. Big no – no as it can damage crabs and everything is still put on a scale, but fat, female and full of eggs .. lmmao. Being a South Bay Manhattan Bch local I rocked up my skateboard in the early morning to say high to a mate working. He was a local boy that played line backer in HS only to find him having a blue with two Maori refrigerators with feet and mamma [she was bigger]. They demanded to hold the crabs after pawing at them with huge hands in the tanks. It got spirited and one of the Maori boys picked up a crab and threw at him, sploded on my mate chest. So here I am with my background and thinking if it really comes down to it what tool around me is on offer cuz kicking and punching them is useless. Seen that in basic training – entry level is a fire extinguisher too the head and the next day they are sort of normal again. Anywho I saw a big 4×4 pole with a net on it and move closer to it. Phew … shit cooled down … dang it would have all been knees and stuff and ugh momma …

            Then at the north end of the Shop was a real Japanese restaurant/sushi place. An actual old Japanese sushi chef. Big time Japanese executives and corp functions in traditional rooms. Fresh Abalone still moving, educated in cooking knifes and how to use them, best was as it was not well known to westerners the whole drama of coke residue on glass [see the song] was not an issue.

            Yet I still carry Calif with me here in OZ wearing classic Revo sunglasses …

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      2. DJG, Reality Czar

        Bugs: “This ain’t no Kaiseki in Kyoto.”

        Touché, mon vieux. I tend to think of sushi as a food for summer. In my not-so-humble opinion, it is a cooling food (also in the traditional medical sense in East Asia of cooling the body’s humors). And in kaiseki cookery, its appearances are limited.

        Here in the Chocolate City, most of the sushi restaurants are owned by Chinese. I hold Chinese cookery in high regard. But I also recall too many “Italian” restaurants in Chicago with too many people in the kitchen and as waitstaff from Spanish Latin America who had sketchy papers. And the gnocchi started tasting like enchiladas.

        Much sushi is abused fish on a handful of forlorn rice.

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        1. amfortas

          i went to one real sushi place, on 6th street in austin, some 35 years ago.
          actual japanese chef, with the fancy knifework, no english, but cool as hell to arm wave with. only japanese words i knew were from that Styx song from early 80’s.
          these days, if i get “sushi”, its in HEB in frederickburg, tx…made by what looks to me to be Koreans(the round faces and more stocky builds dont exactly scream “Japanese”.) they apparently have no english, either…but the wife part of what appears to be a family op withing heb-dom is nice.
          their “sushi” is hardly authentic, i am given to assume…but its a nice summertime distraction from the usual fare.
          the wife^^^ gave me a sliver of whatever radish goes into wasabi…but it died, because it gets too hot, here.(this after a rather long armwaving session with her ,asking about wasabi…i had assumed it was horseradish…which she kept calling something else,lol)
          nothing exercises ones mind like having conversations without a shared language,lol

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    2. Henry Moon Pie

      Sushi parenting sounds like more conspicuous consumption to me.

      “You wouldn’t believe the greens’ fees I had to pay at that Pete Dye course.”

      “Can you guess what a new main and furling genny cost me compared to 10 years ago?”

      “My kid’s love for sushi is going to bankrupt me.”

      So cute. Consume a luxury good, you or your kid, then complain how much it’s costing you.

      Reply ↓
      2. Frank Little

        Totally agree, a kind of humble brag about their kid’s ability to fit into their extravagant lifestyle.

        Next up: “I need a second job now that Augie enjoys a dram of 50-year old scotch.”

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    3. chris

      Yeah, lots of weirdness being reported by media outlets with respect to parenting lately. I really like the term “luxury beliefs” to describe this kind of story. Most working people with kids do not have the time or the energy to put up with that kind of nonsense.

      The sushi article is weird because sushi is cheap and quick to make and involves using tools that little kids enjoy playing with in the kitchen. If your family has gotten to the point where you’re spending serious money on sushi and you haven’t learned how to make it, I’m not sure what is going on. Just get a bag of nice rice, take a few minutes to prep it, and then go to town with cucumber and whatever proteins you like. Seaweed nori sheets are cheap and commonly available in grocery stores now too.

      Reply ↓
  6. RookieEMT

    Okay. Maduro is hypothetically out of the picture.

    Assume the Venezuela government capitulation and we fly in the Nobel peace prize winner and declare her president.

    Large facilities need to be expanded or built from scratch to process the heavy crude oil. That will take years.

    All the while civil society in Venezuela risks civil war while we build said facilities. What’s the risk of the facilities getting targeted by drones…

    I assume we learned nothing from Iraq, and ultimately Chinese and European companies accessed the oil, not American companies.

    Edit: I’m scared for Cuba. Don’t they require some support and get some their precious fuel from Venezuela?

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    1. hoki_haya

      Cuba’s on the menu. both President Rubio and his sidekick the Don declared Cuba ‘a failed state’ – and that ‘we’ want to help them.

      the question has always been: are russia and china willing to intervene, and to what degree, in ‘our’ backyard, even tho we have placed no limits upon ourselves as to intervening in theirs?

      the fact that the Venezuelan government, now minus Maduro, remains intact at this hour is largely due to immediate Russian action.

      Reply ↓
    2. Kouros

      Mexico is shipping oil products to Cuba now and the US is very upset about that. NC had an article by Nick C the other day on the topic.

      Reply ↓
    1. ocypode

      Cooperating so he can get put in permanent jail in the US and still get his country bombed to hell? I mean, it could be true, I just find it baffling.

      Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          Maybe too the Saddam Hussein treatment where he will be filmed getting a humiliating medical examination by a doctor to really bring the guy down. I seem to recall at the time that that video only served to enrage Saddam supporters.

          Reply ↓
        2. pjay

          Or the Noriega treatment. Both cases were assisted by an obliging media, as I’m sure this one will be.

          We should be able to tell immediately by his treatment whether there is any truth to the rumors that he “negotiated” this outcome.

          Reply ↓
          1. Yves Smith Post author

            The wife is being charged too, which I can’t imagine him or her accepting voluntarily. And the story comes from Sky, which is hardly first in line to get this sort of tidbit. So I would need a lot more evidence to deem this to be credible.

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  8. ciroc

    What the hell? Until yesterday, everyone was saying that the U.S. military would suffer devastating losses if it attacked Venezuela. Yet the operation ended in just two hours with hardly any resistance. Where were all the patriotic militias, Russians, and Chinese?

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      It appears you have not read even the links above, let alone previously provided material, with much care.

      1. The predictions of US running into severe difficulty were of the scenario of an attempt to take over Venezuela. That is not what happened. They did a raid and removed Maduro and his wife. The deputy PM is in charge. The head of defense is still in his post. The government is still in place.

      2. Rubio said this is all that would be done, the removal of Maduro to stand trial in the US.

      3. The experts we linked to here said the reverse of what you insinuate about Russia and China, that they would not respond militarily, but that the resistance would come from internal forces plus volunteers from all over Latin America keen to kill gringos.

      Reply ↓
      1. ocypode

        On that note, thanks a lot, getting even remotely reliable information in such thick fog of war doesn’t come easy.

        Reply ↓
      2. pjay

        I agree with each of your points here. Yet I’m still puzzled. I keep thinking about Noriega. It’s still early in the reporting, but it sure seems like it took a lot more effort to extract Noriega from little Panama that it did to get Maduro. I’m not necessarily talking about the firepower used (I don’t know yet how extensive the bombing was or what the targets were). But this seemed to happen with lightning speed. I know the CIA can do such things in episodes of Homeland, but how does this happen in the real world?

        Reply ↓
        1. Michael Fiorillo

          Could it be that anti-imperialist/anti-globalist types are just as likely believe their own propaganda as those on the other side?

          I plead guilty, since I’m so old I remember people actually believing that Saddam’s Republican Guard would put up some real resistance to the US, and it seems like just yesterday I thought that Hezbollah, Syria and Iran would successfully stymie the Israelis. It hasn’t turned out that way, has it?

          Increasingly, I don’t trust anyone’s take on things, not even my own, unless it’s backed up by a lot factual data over time.

          Reply ↓
          1. Keith Newman

            @Michael Fiorillo, January 3, 1:09 pm
            My feelings are similar.
            However I do think some analysts are more reliable than others. Mark Sleboda has been pretty reliable on Russia/Ukraine I believe. He is pro-Russian but did predict the war would be very difficult for Russia.

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      3. ciroc

        The U.S. military operation was swift and limited. However, flying helicopters at low altitudes over enemy territory is still extremely dangerous. This is especially true in a country that has stockpiled 5,000 MANPADS in preparation for such a scenario. Though many Venezuelans had the opportunity to film the enemy aircraft with their smartphones, no one attempted to shoot it down. It’s very strange.

        Reply ↓
        1. Yves Smith Post author

          The operation was at night, in a city, so the light pollution would make it hard for anyone to see the choppers before they started firing.

          Even though MANPADS have IR, it need to be locked on the target, which requires the human aiming it to sight the target. From a query on this issue:

          while the seekerhead of the missile can see in the dark, the eyes of the human holding it cannot

          unless they have goggles, but most insurgents don’t.

          you’re correct though in that the missile won’t have problems tracking in the dark. in order for the missile to acquire the target it will have to be pointed at the target, which requires either a radar to track + acquire or mk1 eyeballs alerting you to the fact that there is an airplane there.

          https://forum.dcs.world/topic/152526-manpads-dimished-efficiency-at-night/

          My impression was that Venezuela’s military air defenses (as in fighter jets and air defense batteries like S-300s and S-400s) were limited.

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          1. ilsm

            Many U.S. military helicopters are equipped with optical countermeasures that foil many MANPADS’ lock. The equipment was common in 2003 Iraq invasion.

            It is very challenging to lock on low fliers even w/o countermeasures.

            Some former cow eskers are pretty happy today having kept warriors safe in harm’s way.

            SOF helicopters certainly are equipped and the crews practiced.

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        2. Roland

          And it’s not like it was a “bolt from the blue.” The USA has been openly threatening Venezuela for months. Why so little readiness? It’s either incompetence, or treachery.

          Unless I begin to see reports about meaningful armed resistance, it will be hard not to think that Maduro got shopped, by people who owed him loyalty.

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          1. Kouros

            It’s either incompetence, or treachery.

            Likely both. Treachery cannot go through a layered wall of competently set up and manned protection and defense.

            Reply ↓
    2. jefemt

      I am confused about the timing (veracity?) of the apparent Jan 2 meeting and visit of Chinese entourage to Venezuela?

      Seven – dimensional Chess with a lot of well-armed playahs with gunz and money.
      What could possibly go right?
      At least it’s not about oil….

      I’m betting Trump traded away Taiwan to Xi. Amazing how the guy has appropriated the world, and the world appears to be openly and overtly embracing might making right, monetization, power and control of spheres of influence.
      Chaotic multi-polar world creates HUGE opportunities for the monied power peeps.

      Denmark and Greenland should be shaking in their boots.

      Wish my “original antifa” WW2 10th Mountain Division dad were still alive to chat up his world view in early 2026.

      Reply ↓
  9. JohnA

    Re Starmer and digital ID. Unlike many other countries, people in Britain do not have any specific physical ID documents that you are obliged to carry with you for identification purposes. Not even your driving licence when driving a car for example. If you are stopped by the police, you have 7 days to report to a local police station and present your driving licence and insurance details etc.
    Certainly British people have ID documents. Passport, driving licence, national insurance, NHS number, hospital number that I can think of off the top of my head, but these are all separate numbers, there is no single Id number such as the ‘civil registration number’ as in Sweden. Whenever you need to contact some authority there, they dont even ask for your name, first it is your registration number.
    Carrying ID therefore goes totally against the grain in Britain, and digital ID on a phone that can cost hundreds and regularly a target of thieves, even more so. It may well be a step too far for Starmer, his poll tax moment? One can but hope.

    Reply ↓
  10. The Rev Kev

    “Zelensky names spy chief to head presidential office after corruption row”

    Not really a good development this and I have heard that Budanov and Zelensky dislike each other which makes it strange. MI6 would have preferred Zaluzhnyi as he is their guy. But Budanov has CIA written all over him and he and the CIA go back years. Budanov is definitely their guy. The Russians regard him as little more than a terrorist and have been trying to nail him for years. His appointment could point to the Ukraine switching over to a dirty war with assassinations, sabotage and the like. That strike on that cafe/hotel on civilians celebrating New Years could be an example of what they want to do.

    Reply ↓
      1. Polar Socialist

        The Russian sources I’m following seem to prefer the explanation that Budanov was the biggest threat to Zelensky, especially running his own agency. Now Budanov has been demoted to a basically Zelensky’s personal assistant and isn’t (much of) a threat to him anymore.

        I personally doubt the current regime is that interested in the future dirty war so much as it’s own survival while there are still warm bodies to throw against the Russians and billions to grift.

        Reply ↓
  11. Henry Moon Pie

    Shlomo Kramer is nothing if not brazen:

    “It’s time to limit the First Amendment in order to protect it.”

    The CNBC hosts barely flinch.

    Rhymes with:

    “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it.”

    Do they hear themselves? Is the money worth publicly sounding like a fool or a lunatic?

    Reply ↓
  12. JMH

    If it is okay to kidnap a sitting president from his capital, are there any limits? If the US can do it to others, might those others … any others … return the favor in one form or another?

    Reply ↓
    1. rob

      I imagine that the multitudes of those which have been attacked by the trumper and his band of suicide suppositories, would think it is only fair play to go after trump, his family, his associates , and all their private property, for the rest of time.
      After all, it isn’t like they hide out in the middle of nowhere. They all seem to be city rats… With lots of servants from the groups that have been scape-goated and attacked. And they like living in the limelight.

      Reply ↓
    2. .human

      September 11, 1973 unmarked, white fighter jets bombed the presidential palace in Chile killing three of President Allendes’ grandchildren. Allende himself did not survive the day.

      Reply ↓
  13. AG

    German N24 TV news reporting on Venezuela was – unsurprisingly – disgusting. They had 2 talking heads, one alleged German “expert” who explained to us that Venezuela was using torture and Hundreds of Thousands of Venzuelans were protesting against Maduro .The other was a clone speaking German with US accent telling us that Maduro is a dictator and that it is a shame that Venezuela is so poor they should be a powerful thriving rich nation. I turned off the set after 5 minutes and won´t turn it back on for the rest of the year.
    This is the DIE WELT/24, which belongs to the rightwing pro-Zionist SPRINGER GROUP (which acquired POLITICO in 2021).

    Reply ↓
  14. AG

    If it is true that there were RU S-300s provided to Venezuela this reminds me of the attack by IDF Air Force on Doha when their AD was turned off, or Tehran during the initial attacks.
    It would be nice to see that Maduro´s abduction doesn´t change the country´s posture and people will resist, just as their SoD stated. But I guess that´s just wishful thinking by me. CIA are too experienced as Mark Sleboda said repeatedly.
    These people should be ashamed. And any member of the House who was former CIA should be thrown out.

    Reply ↓
  15. chris

    MTG becoming more and more sane as events progress is not something I ever anticipated. 2026 seems like it will be just like 2025, except faster and harder, until Trump finally manages to break things.

    If Maduro is out and the US gets what it wants with minimal issues, then I expect northern Mexico to be next on the hit list.

    Reply ↓
      1. gf

        Greenland is not an issue.
        They can take it any time they like.

        They want all the left out in the west.
        That means Brazil and Mexico and Canada.

        Reply ↓
        1. chris

          Does Canada count as left? They’re certainly neoliberal in their desire to debank citizens and restrict free speech. But I wouldn’t put their leadership in the same part of the political spectrum as Sheinbaum’s administration.

          Plus, Canada is all in for Project Ukraine.

          Reply ↓
          1. gf

            No, but to the MAGA right Liberals are Commies, Marxists and Socialists.
            So are Democrats … same thing.

            Tucker Carlson has stated that he wants Canada invaded.

            Reply ↓
            1. flora

              I would like to see Tucker and Thomas Frank in conversation about how many ideas they have in common about what’s wrong with the economy and the country for and how to fix the problems that would help the majority of the people.
              I bet they have a lot of ideas in common about what is wrong with things now. Oligarchy, elite corruption, pointless wars, etc. The solutions might be very different, but getting to the point where shared ideas about what’s broken could be a starting point. / imo

              That’s a conversation neither party want people to start talking about.

              Reply ↓
              1. flora

                Or, if they cannot agree on how to fix the problems, they might agree on what needs to change. That would be a good start.

                Reply ↓
                1. gf

                  I do not think that Thomas Frank has any power or sway any where in power circles. Tucker does so i don’t know how much they would agree.

                  I would trust Thomas Frank, would not trust Tucker.

                  But that is me.

                  Reply ↓
                    1. gf

                      Good video.

                      I think some on the left would really want to choke on their munchies when I comes to Van-Jones from back in the day compared to now.

                      But they are very naive. Keaton predicted the Ukraine conflict would be over the last 2 years. Russell thought that the establishment would not allow Trump to become pres the 2nd time.

                      Having said that i was naive about Obama 1 and Bernie.

                    2. tegnost

                      I get your argument flora, Tucker/Frank…I’m watching…
                      I always (imo) thought the supremes didnt matter as much as advertised as they are interpreting a liberal document.
                      The supremes have failed me, but tucker has not.

  16. The Rev Kev

    “Lithuania is preparing to blow up bridges on the border with Russia and Belarus.”

    Would Russia or Belarus even care? Why would they even want to go there? As far as they are concerned, Lithuania could be called Country 404.

    Reply ↓
    1. sarmaT

      They should blow up a few dams while they’re at it, Ukrainian style. That should stop the (Bela)Rooskies in their tracks.

      Reply ↓
  17. ChrisStuckInTT

    Yours truly is “next door”.

    • Flights from US Carriers cancelled. None available till Wednesday.
    • Regional carriers (Caribbean et al) still flying apparently.

    People in the know are not talking too much yet here, but the general feeling is “not good”.

    It looks like Maduro has granted Trump the ultimate win. In certain (shrinking) parts of MAGA land, this act of machismo against Chavismo plays well – Exhibit A (via X). However, one will have to wait to see how the emerging #AmericaFirstMeansAmericaFirst MAGA faction see this. Nothing yet from MTG or Massie.

    Things are now – to paraphrase Lambert – a bit dynamic in Venezuela. The US attacked while a Chinese delegation was in Caracas?!! I think that was a grave miscalculation, the recklessness of which is going to cause a shift in Chinese policy towards the region.

    Reply ↓
    1. jefemt

      Hope all the uber-rich yacht set made a safe getaway from their New Year debauchery at Davos-in-Caribbean anchorages! (clutches pearls)

      I mean, it also might be a bit exciting — raise some libidos sans blue pills?

      Reply ↓
      2. The Rev Kev

        The timing of Maduro being kidnapped just after meeting those Chinese diplomats suggests a deliberate attempt to humiliate China if not mock them. That’s going to fly well in Beijing.

        Reply ↓
  18. ibaien

    the collective shrug from RUS and CHI over this brazen (though as yet dubiously successful) regime change lead me to believe backroom deals have been done – the US gets to bigfoot LATAM, RUS gets UKR and potentially the baltics, CHI gets TW. lots of kayfabe moaning about sovereignty from spox, but nothing more than the latest great game.

    Reply ↓
    1. Daniil Adamov

      It’s not much of a regime change if the rest of the regime is, for now at least, in place. Maybe a pro-American government could yet be installed (if there is infighting that they can take advantage of, for instance), but it seems like a long shot, and anyway it really doesn’t seem like a very thought-through action (though smarter than an outright invasion, I suppose).

      But I’m also not sure what Russia or China could do about this right now. It’s probably not seen as meritign any serious escalation. Either the Americans will have achieved nothing of consequence or they will get a fresh quagmire on their hands, which would probably be welcome.

      Reply ↓
    2. flora

      Adding weight to your point, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded this year to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado after she made a plea for the US to invade her country Venezuela and free it from Maduro.
      Methinks her winning the Nobel prize signals that most of the EU is onboard with this attack on Venezuela. T may be the useful idiot in this scenario. (The EU is in dire need of oil.) / imo

      Julian Assange is filing a criminal complaint against the Nobel committee for misuse of funds. From AlJazeera:

      “Julian Assange files complaint against Nobel Foundation over Machado prize

      WikiLeaks founder said awarding Venezuela’s opposition leader is a ‘gross misappropriation’ of funds and risks facilitating war crimes.”
      https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/19/julian-assange-files-complaint-against-nobel-foundation-over-machado-prize

      Reply ↓
      1. hoki_haya

        oh, absolutely. donnie fell in line with the Rubio camp (see him waiting in the wings with false humility). the EU/US/Israeli axis is now fully wedded (‘let’s never argue again!’). maybe there will be indications of a differing position from Vance, who i imagine had/has serious misgivings, but as it stands now Kamala/Cheney might as well have won the last election.

        Reply ↓
      2. AG

        I watched Al Jazeera as broadcast in Germany in English, to my surprise, frankly their guests were shitty and without any serious insight. In fact much covertly pro-Trump.
        Of course this was only one occasion for me. So this is not representative a verdict. But it was unpleasant to watch.

        Reply ↓
  19. flora

    File under Trump 2.0:

    From the Real Progressives website, a Macro and Economics podcast with Bill Black talking about the Trump admin, control capture, elite corruption, and crypto.
    From 3 months ago, October 2025. Well worth a listen. ~1hr,10+ minutes. no paywall.

    Episode 350 – Naked Corruption with Bill Black

    “Serial whistleblower Bill Black gives us the ‘hows’ of elite control fraud in the Trump administration. He also explains the dangers connected to cryptocurrency. ”

    https://realprogressives.org/mnc-podcast-ep/episode-350-naked-corruption-with-bill-black/

    Some background for readers unfamiliar with his name, Bill Black exposed the S&L banking scandal and wrote the book “The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry”

    Reply ↓
  20. Carolinian

    We who have been pooh pooh-ing the idea give up.
    Fascism is on the march even if it’s Three Stooges fascism. The real question is not what happens in Venezuela but what happens in the USA.

    I fear the answer is: not very much.

    Reply ↓
    1. jefemt

      after the foobaw game, can we watch the re-run of Dancing with the Master Chefs?

      Putin Popcorn Futures (insert Putin Popcorn meme here)

      Reply ↓
  22. Roland

    Here is a report on Venezuela from the PRC’s official news agency:

    https://english.news.cn/20260103/29e3b3b0fa2f4ca08bcbb70674e79e1e/c.html

    It’s anodyne, even by Xinhua standards, and that’s saying something.

    The Chinese official news agency has not one word about the Chinese government’s attitude towards a major world event–in a country to which they have sent a high level diplomatic team.

    The linked article reports the response of a number of countries, but not PRC. Not even a, “views with concern.” Nothing.

    Reply ↓
    1. Polar Socialist

      China is deeply shocked by and strongly condemns the U.S.’s blatant use of force against a sovereign state and action against its president.

      Such hegemonic acts of the U.S. seriously violate international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty, and threaten peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean region. China firmly opposes it.

      We call on the U.S. to abide by international law and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and stop violating other countries’ sovereignty and security.

      Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson over two hours ago.

      Reply ↓
          1. gf

            I just meant that the Dem strategy in general used against Trump wrong doing not this specific issue, where i would assume they are all on board with including BernieZiobaby, AOCIA and Mamdamit.

            Reply ↓
            1. anahuna

              As far as Mamdani is concerned, you assume wrong. According to Fox news, he has condemned it as an “act of war”. For me, the more interesting question is whether or not old Rupert will support it. He:s rumored to have begun souring on Trump.

              Reply ↓
              1. Michaelmas

                He’s never liked Trump. Was on record early on saying after a phone call with him, ‘what an f***ing moron.’

                That said, it’s 2025. Fox doesn’t matter like it did — IIRC, Tucker Carlson may be getting more views now — and Rupert in particular is just a very old man who as of 2023 mostly passed the keys to his kingdom over to son Lachlan.

                Reply ↓
    2. ibaien

      for all the bluff and bluster and grandstanding, CHI needs USA as a consumer of first resort just as much as USA needs CHI as a producer. we’re not going to come to blows over this; they’ll be perfectly content buying american pumped oil from the orinoco delta, all ideologies aside. it’s just business. folks on this blog love ascribing high-minded revolutionary ideals to CHI, RUS, IR, etc etc and yet whenever push comes to shove it’s just posturing. the system keeps working; it has to. too many fortunes at stake.

      Reply ↓
      1. Roland

        Thanks for posting this.

        I guess it’s fair enough that there was a few hours’ delay, before PRC made an official statement.

        My fault for breaking my usual rule about not following events too closely…

        But I’m just so sick and tired and disgusted. Brazen kidnappings and piracies. Trenches on the steppes, horrid massacre in the Levant, and a worldwide arms race.

        Up until now, the one redeeming thing about Trump was that he had arguably not added to the number of wars his country was fighting. Now he flunks the only test I make, as a foreigner, of a US president.

        If you’re a citizen of the USA, how do you get peace? Vote for Bush you get war, vote for Obama you get war, vote for Biden you get war, vote for Trump you get war. Overthrow the whole damn government, you get civil war. It all stinks.

        Reply ↓
        1. tegnost

          It’s the new american century, only a quarter of the way through and well on our way to ruling the world… :/

          Reply ↓
        2. AG

          Indeed.

          The only possible difference between Trump et al. may be holding back from stepping up to WWIII…but that´s a very low bar to measure “success”.
          On the other hand: how do you stop this. Since it´s every goddam institution above all the Senate that is complicit. It´s systemic to the core. And with the constituencies depending economically on the vicious circle they´re not gonna change a thing.

          Reply ↓
    5. Kouros

      China has a defense treaty with North Korea, not with Venezuela. Yes, the Chinese MFA reaction was milder than what they said when Japan PM crossed the red line with Taiwan. Should they act like Trump? WHat would you expect the response to be?

      Myself I am curious if Mexico will continue shipping oil products to Cuba. If yes, than killing the chicken to scare the monkeys strategy didn’t work as intended.

      Reply ↓
  23. Henry Moon Pie

    Well Watchers–

    I made a longer point over at the modular reactor post, but here I’ll just say that evils continue to flow from those holes in the ground. They are a box, once opened, that it seems can never be shut again. Microplastics came out of those wells while they were still producing, along with enough CO2 to bring us to nearly 430 ppm. That it’s so hard to shut off these gates of hell should say something about the wisdom of drilling more of these holes.

    Reply ↓
  24. AG

    What were the Russian military specialists doing there?
    Odd unless they were told by RU to stand down due to whatever agreement.
    Russians would have known that US operation has started.
    Is this possibly one of Trump´s serve-all-factions-stunt:
    Make it look tougher than it is…

    Reply ↓
  25. elissa3

    Relatives on vacation in Puerto Rico are telling us that the main San Juan airport there has been closed. They are due to return to the mainland on Monday. The closure doesn’t make too much sense to me given the geography of the region, but what do I know.

    Reply ↓
  26. Balakirev

    Germany begins sending forms to 18-year-olds asking them if they are fit for war as conscription laws come into effect and conflict with Russia looms

    The Tom Thumb Brigade. I wonder if their secret weapon is hoping the Russians will laugh themselves to death?

    Reply ↓
  27. oledeadmeat

    How do the Venezuelan public feel about Maduro being gone?

    For my part, things in Venezuela were not going to get measurably better while Maduro was around, and they were pretty bad.

    Now things can change, maybe we should think about how things can progress in a better fashion there than in Iraq or Afghanistan.

    I don’t want a US occupation, or at most a short term minimal one if absolutely necessary.
    How should we proceed?

    Reply ↓
    1. RookieEMT

      “We are the hottest country in the world now.” – Trump

      “You know, it won’t cost us anything cause the money coming out the ground is substantial. So it’s not gonna cost us anything.” – Trump

      Sweet mother of god, we are so cooked.

      Reply ↓
      2. tongorad

        “”Trump – As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time. They were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping and what could have taken place. We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country. And we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.”

        Reply ↓
  30. Nothing

    Economically, does the intervention in Venezuela drive the world closer to China? I get that Venezuela has oil, but does this intervention make South American countries more open to Chinese investments in industry and infrastructure as a partial deterrent to US interference in their country?

    Is the US hastening its economic decline by creating political instability and economic uncertainty?

    Economically, I don’t see how this benefits the US. Oil prices are already low. Who’s going to pay for the infrastructure upgrades in Venezuela only to pump more oil onto the markets?

    Reply ↓
      1. Nothing

        tongorad,

        Thank you for the link.

        So is this intervention an attempt for the US to try and remain relevant in South America?

        Reply ↓
  31. Wukchumni

    Nicolás, St. Nicolás
    Come to us today
    Ride upon a helicopter
    From far, far away

    Bring us your oil treasure
    Fill our refineries above
    Ready for the Mar-a-Lago man child
    When push meets shove

    Nicolás, St. Nicolás
    Come to us today
    Ride upon a helicopter
    From far, far away

    Reply ↓
    1. hk

      Latin Americans do the three wise men, rather than St Nicholas. Epiphany is in 3 days. Do something for us along that line!

      Reply ↓
      1. hk

        ps. i was thinking of the three wise guys (in the gangster sense): Trump, Rubio, and Hegseth, very much giving the mobster vibe at the presser.

        Reply ↓
  32. Shin Stout

    The wealthy do not want to share. They are often wealthy because they do not share. The common good is never in the mind of the capitalist. Sharing is considered weak and reduces the value to “shareholders”. Shareholders form a very small percentage of every country’s population in the world.

    Is there any economy that has a higher overall minimum wage with low inflation and economic growth? Is there an economic model which supports true shared prosperity with balanced growth?

    An old model suggested that Owners make no more than 10 times the salary of Workers. This would suggest that in the U.S. Owners of companies and land, etc. would make a maximum of $72.50 per hour maximum if they had minimum wage workers and all other income would be shared or invested into infrastructure, environmental restoration and economic balance (the common good). Of course if the minimum wage was $22 per hour the owner would make $220 per hour, and so forth….

    Is there an example of true shared wealth and prosperity in any current world economy? What are the best examples of countries with a true basis of the “common good” that we could look towards? The current examples fall far short.

    – Not An Economist and Looking For Hope

    Reply ↓
  33. ocypode

    Everything is very much up in the air, but it looks like Venezuela’s vice-president is in Caracas and has not capitulated (link):

    VP Delcy Rodríguez with a public address. Strikes a defiant tone, vowing that Venezuela will not submit to any empires or accept foreign dictates and demanded the release of President Maduro

    Telesur confirms it (in spanish).

    Reply ↓
  34. neutrino23

    The press is asking why people are pessimistic even though inflation is tamed. Ha. As if you can believe that inflation is under control. You can no longer trust any such stats put out by Trump.

    Reply ↓
  36. Victor Sciamarelli

    On the eve of WW1 it was obvious that no one country could defeat Germany. The only solution was to form a Grand Alliance aka the Triple Entente with Britain, France, Russia, and eventually the US.
    On the eve of WW2 it was again obvious that no one country could defeat Germany. Once again, the only solution was to form a Grand Alliance but this time it was more difficult. The Soviet Union was not available largely due to Stalin’s purge of his generals and later agreement with Germany, and the US was in isolation largely due to the Neutrality Acts of the Congress. Nonetheless, the powers eventually came together and defeated Germany.
    The US invasion of Venezuela likely signals to the other powers in the world, especially China, Russia, Brazil, India, et al., that the US is clearly a dangerous rogue state which will eventually come for them unless they act together.
    Everything about Trump reveals his tragic flaw and tells me, the longer he is in charge, human suffering will increase.

    Reply ↓
    1. Kouros

      Actually the USSR tried very hard to form an alliance with France and UK but was rebuffed at every corner. Poland was adamantly against that as well, being at the time a quasi fascist state as well. Because of all these rebuttals USSR entered in august 1939 in the non agression treaty with Germany (something Poland already did in 1936).

      This Canadian historian has one of the latest book (in a trilogy) on the topic: Michael Jabara Carley – Stalin’s Failed Alliance: The Struggle for Collective Security, 1936-1939.

      The closer the threat of US to Russia and/or China, the harder the response will be. And I don’t forsee any attack on North Korea for instance.

      Reply ↓
    2. hk

      Stalin was not available because Britain and France didn’t want USSR on their side, which, in turn was at least in part because Poland didn’t want the Russians on their side. There was a lot of diplimatic back and forth in 1938 and 1939 that came to nothing.

      There is something analogous going on now: many powers don’t want to bet too heavily on Russia and/or China and are still interested in cutting a deal with the West if possible–Mercouris constantly reminds us that Iran, Venezuela, etc did not want to sign on to a formal pact with Russia, for example. One might note that, even 80 plus years later, Western powers are still suffering from the buyer’s remorse from having (eventually) made common cause with the Russians.

      Reply ↓
    3. amfortas

      ive asked the question embedded in this little story many times, but never seem to get anything like an answer:
      25 years ago, im sitting outside the trailerhouse that is now the Library, in one of those stackable PVC chairs one obtains from walmart, but that i absconded with from mom’s.
      drinkin beer, watching birds in trees of an afternoon, and idly picking at a sticker on the armrest that said “made in america”…which suddenly came free…revealing another sticker that said “made in mexico”…so i picked with more intention, and soon revealed yet another sticker that said “made in malaysia”.
      further picking uncovered a final sticker:”made in china”.
      this was revelatory, for me.
      and ever since…and esp after endeavoring to study economics, via source materials…i have wondered:
      at some point when our evil empireism finally sufficiently pisses off the Rest of the World, what economic weapons could China wield against us without ever firing a shot?
      with the recent “constraints” on various metals(antimony is particularly poignant!) it seems rather obvious.
      the question that i have kept after for all these years: whats the threshold for China to pull the trigger on their big economic manufacturing gun?
      when do they lead the ROW in blockading us?
      because i go to stores and pay attention…and we dont make shit, anymores.
      at what point does the cost/benefit analysis favor china, et alia saying…”welp, y’all are done. good luck!”?

      Reply ↓
      1. erstwhile

        Agreed. I think that a lot of people are waiting for China to stop sending their rare earths, for example, to the usa as punishment for american aggression just about everywhere, but now, especially in South America, where China has been for years investing mightily in Latin economies. I suppose that’s one possible card for China to play, or one gun to fire, but I’d suggest another option too, coupled, or not, with the rare earths. That option would be to cease the shipment of medicines to the usa. I’m thinking specifically of the pills that I, and millions of other americans take every day of my life. The usa, and a great number of its citizens, remain indifferent, at best, to the suffering their country causes the world’s people. Let’s the sins of the empire be visited unto its own. Amen, and amen, brother.

        Reply ↓
      2. Kouros

        I think China, or Russia for that matter are more reactive in this matter and they will need to be provoked badly to hit directly at the US.

        Probably, for China, a big red line would be now for US to start sending big troops as well as more Patriots and more ATACMS and HIMARS to Taiwan.

        Reply ↓
        1. hk

          A story that got pushed aside by Venezuela was China seizing a freighter heading to Taiwan and confiscating HIMARS that it was carrying, supposedly. Incidentally, on infinitely firmer legal grounds than anything we’d been up to lately. Possibly, something huge(r than Venezuela).

          Reply ↓
  37. amfortas

    from the horse’s mouth:(in spanish):
    https://x.com/1591ymuchomas/status/2007559099643461730

    horrible AI translation that is more or less accurate:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4V7Qiu7NrQ

    im much better at written spanish than hearing it….and couldnt locate a translation aside from the jumpy one beside the latter video.
    the gist i get is that she’s pissed,lol.
    not laying down, as some have suggested.
    time will tell, i suppose.
    looking for Ignacio to come forth with alt-spanish language press.(and better translations)

    Reply ↓
    1. anon

      Here’s a very rough translation of the video. I did it myself (native spanish speaker), but I didn’t edit it, so it’s bound to have typos, and spelling and grammar errors. Also, I used “fatherland” instead of the more accurate “homeland,” and I’m sure I botched the first lady’s name more than once. I hope you find it useful anyways.

      Reply ↓
  39. Earl

    I saw a 17-minute video of MTGreene giving Trump unshirted hell over Venezuela. 60 minutes appears in the lower right-hand corner of the screen, and I wonder if this is a preview of an upcoming segment. She is very hard about using the military for the benefit of corporate looters “Venezuelan oil belongs to Venezuela.” YouTube videos are difficult to link but the address given was YouTube.com/watch?v=2-TvweD9Y4 The title was Trump Betrayed America First: $2.8 Billion to Bomb Venezuela for Oil and the site is Inside Financial Architecture

    Reply ↓
    1. Skippy

      Tucker is on it as well noting how Venezuela has a more conservative society than America, MAGA +++ level. No LBGT+, no sex changes, no usury aka 40% CC interest fees …. but yeah … Trump Inc said the country needs to be run properly aka like Argentina in the day a high GDP but FK the distribution vectors to Citizens/Locals for international investors desires ….

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisRUEcon

        It’s slick, but it’s AI … :) Check the “How this was made” section in the video’s description (via YouTube):

        Altered or synthetic content
        Sound or visuals were significantly edited or digitally generated.

        Reply ↓

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