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Links 1/6/2026

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The Psychology of People Who Love Cats Laughing Squid (resilc)

Think you make 200 food choices a day? Think again ScienceDaily (Kevin W). Huh? Yours truly is a remarkably habitual eater.

South of the Border: US Kidnapping, Con’t.

VENI, VIDI, VENEZUELA: Pox Americana from War-a-Iago Dennis Kuchinich (resilc)

Attack On Venezuela Will Destroy The US Empire | Amb. Chas Freeman Neutrality Studies, YouTube

The U.S. Won’t Be Able to ‘Run’ Venezuela Daniel Larison

* * *

Big Oil doesn’t share Trump’s dream of making Venezuelan oil great again CNN

Internal Coup? Was Maduro BETRAYED By His VP Breaking Points, YouTube

CIA Concluded Regime Loyalists Were Best Placed to Lead Venezuela After Maduro Wall Street Journal

Venezuela launches wave of repression after US seizure of Nicolás Maduro Financial Times. Lead story.

Note the cognitive bias towards black and white explanations. Per the below it is quite possible that the CIA paid off a lot of lower level people without suborning the leadership and Rodriguez is having to tap dance not being sure of how many termites there are. And the US also has a whip hand via the continuing damage done by the blockade.

Why Trump Refused to Back Venezuela’s Machado: Fears of Chaos, and Fraying Ties New York Times

* * *

Behind the DOJ’s politicized indictment of Maduro: a CIA-created ‘network’ and coerced star witness The Grayzone

Big Surprise: Legal Story Changes as Maduro Brought to Court Simplicius

I saw how Maduro was humbled in court Telegraph. I am told that the 92 year old judge is a Zionist, but I do not have independent confirmation. IMHO the important part of the story, which I have not seen reported elsewhere, is that Maduro’s wife Celia Flores is visibly beaten up and her lawyers say she has broken ribs.

* * *

US foes and allies denounce Trump’s ‘crime of aggression’ in Venezuela at UN meeting Guardian (resilc)

Cuba defiant as it braces for post-Maduro era BBC

Going Going, Back Back, To Venezuela Venezuela (Part 1) Mike Benz, YouTube (Li). An archived stream and a bit gonzo, but fits the material. Reminiscent of The Men Who Stare at Goats, with more money and moving parts. But some intriguing points about the music industry and crypto. Best suited to listening at 1.25x while puttering about but has a transcript too.

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Climate/Environment

Category 6 hurricanes? Deep ocean heat is fueling stronger storms Earth

blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”>

AFRICA HEAT WAVE
Another day >40C in Cameroon and Nigeria with many more to come

‼️Starting from tomorrow the record heat will spread from the Sahel to the Sahara (35C coming to Algeria and Libya) and than the Mediterranean,including Greece and South Balkans

Ready for history ? pic.twitter.com/xBy5rsob7g

— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) January 2, 2026

In Depth: China’s ‘Rain Belt’ Marches North, Unleashing Floods on Arid Lands Caixin

Research ties China’s smog clean-up to hotter and drier conditions in Australia ABC Australia

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/01/links-1-4-2026.html” rel=”nofollow”>Extreme heat and dengue: Bangladesh’s twin public health crises Dkakat Tribune

Why this Colorado coal town is digging geothermal Yale Climate Connections

In Denmark, Sick Cows and a Lot of Questions Undark

China?

China’s Services Gauge Slows Again With Growth at Six-Month Low Bloomberg

Property industry remains an enemy within for Beijing’s economic targets South China Morning Post

Why China is racing to develop its own commercial jet engine Straits Times (resilc)

Revolutionary generator transforms Chinese factories into power plants Kevin Walmsley

Japan

Japan’s Long-term Interest Rate Rises to 2.125%, Highest in Past 27 Japan News

China asks citizens in Japan to stay vigilant amid reports of violent incidents TRT World. IMHO, this is China taking measures to further discourage Chinese tourism in Japan. They ran the same playbook with Thailand. China has demonized Thailand over its supposed danger as part of Chinese efforts to pressure the Thai government over scammers (and perhaps other issues not apparent to your humble blogger) to the degree that PlutoniumKun, who keeps tabs on China, says that Chinese regard Thailand as unsafe. Tourism is down 7% year on year, largely due to a big drop in tourists from China, which even I see (way fewer Chinese tour busses this year). Taxi driving by women is a good proxy for personal safety. Here in the sex capital of Asia, over 30% of the taxis are driven by women, with no NYC type plastic barriers or gun carrying by them. (And there is a very long story here: Thailand’s clumsy responses, such as shutting large numbers of bank accounts and greatly tightening up on visas have scared off a lot collective West longer-term residents)

Koreas

North Korea’s Kim oversees hypersonic missile test, warns of ‘geopolitical crisis’ France24

India

Trump warns of higher tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases Reuters

Africa

The Forgotten Crisis: War, Starvation, and International Failure in Sudan Morocco World News

Renewed fighting near Uvira raises tensions in Eastern DR Congo Africa News

How the climate crisis is changing an ancient way of life in Ethiopia Independent

Africa faces a silent mental health crisis as extreme weather intensifies The Citizen

European Disunion

‘We need Greenland’: Trump repeats threat to annex Danish territory BBC. As we said, this is almost guaranteed for Trump to try to offset the monster prestige loss when Russia prevails in Ukraine.

Donald Trump Issues Greenland Deadline Newsweek (Kevin W)

US attack on Greenland would mean end of Nato, says Danish PM Guardian (Kevin W)

Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland New York Times (resilc)

France expresses solidarity with Denmark after Trump’s Greenland comments TRT World. resilc: “IED baguettes are coming.”

French doctors begin 10-day strike over new budget rfi

Ten people found guilty of cyberbullying Brigitte Macron Irish Times. Micael T:

EU values. How about either prove them wrong or just ignore stupid shit people say? But no, thin-skinned incompetents destroying their countries and a continent unpunished have to punish people for saying mean things.

Greek Farmers to Escalate Protests With a 48-Hour Blockade Tovima

Old Blighty

Britain faces a ‘zombie apocalypse’ as high interest rates and energy prices and rises in the minimum wage combine to kill off struggling firms, according to a report Daily Mail

UK: Labour minister tells local councils they could be sued for boycotting Israel Middle East Eye (Kevin W)

‘Planting crops in 2026 may be pointless’ BBC

Winter blooming of hundreds of plants in UK ‘visible signal’ of climate breakdown Guardian

Israel v. The Resistance

Doctors fear ‘swamp fever’ spreading in flood-hit Gaza Aljazeera. From last week, still germane.

Syraqistan

Syrian government and Kurdish-led SDF fail to progress on military merger Aljazeera

Britain and France launch strikes on Isis facility in Syria Financial Times

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine’s power grid is struggling under Russia’s blitz Economist. Anecdotes of hardy Kiev residents coping and cursing Putin.

Brief Frontline Report – January 5th, 2026 Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov

Erdoğan says Russia-Ukraine war risks Black Sea trade ANewz TV

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

The State of Anti-Surveillance Design 404 Media

Imperial Collapse Watch

The New Conservatives and Industrial Policy in the Trump Administration’s Second Term China Affairs +

The New Neoconservatives American Conservative (resilc)

US-based multinational companies will be exempt from global tax deal Associated Press (Paul R). I had called this early based on some Trump remarks, but only in comments.

‘Grab what you can:’ The global rush for second passports CNN (Kevin W)

Trump 2.0

A New Trump Game Plan Takes Shape: Strike and Coerce Wall Street Journal. As we said, “Raid not invade”. But we know how well “Seize not freeze” worked out.

Pentagon to cut Sen. Mark Kelly’s military retirement pay over ‘seditious’ video: Hegseth CNBC (resilc)

CDC Removes 6 Diseases From Childhood Vaccine Schedule Forbes

Trump cuts off $10B in funding to five blue states for child care, social services over fraud fears New York Post (resilc)

Supremes

Who is the Chief Justice’s Audience? Steve Vladeck

Mamdani

The Jewish Establishment’s Attacks on Mamdani Aren’t Only Illogical Peter Beinart

Democrats en déshabillé

Tim Walz to drop out of Minnesota governor’s race Politico

AI

‘Just an unbelievable amount of pollution’: how big a threat is AI to the climate? Guardian

The (possibly) coming AI backlash and information warfare Gary Marcus

The Dangers of AI and Extreme Wealth Inequality Washington Monthly (resilc)

AI-driven inflation is 2026’s most overlooked risk, investors say Reuters

LLM Hallucinations Are Still Absolutely Nuts Freddie deBoer

Economy

A frightening recession indicator is flashing red — and Americans can see it all over Main Street Daily Mail

Mr. Market

Gold and silver prices rose as investors reacted to increased geopolitical risks following the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro FXLeaders

Class Warfare

Millions with debt brace for smaller paychecks as government crackdown begins from January 7 Economic Times

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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107 comments

  1. none

    EU values. How about either prove them wrong or just ignore stupid shit people say? But no, thin-skinned incompetents destroying their countries and a continent unpunished have to punish people for saying mean things.

    Apparently some Frenchies are calling for Trump to come and take away Macron. Heh.

    Reply ↓
    2. gf

      Sounds more like the legitimization of nazi provocateurs to me.

      The goal being to scapegoat trans people.

      But, hay whatever. It is all good right.

      Reply ↓
  2. The Rev Kev

    “North Korea’s Kim oversees hypersonic missile test, warns of ‘geopolitical crisis’ ”

    If true, this is getting embarrassing. Russia has hypersonic missiles. China has hypersonic missiles. Iran is reputed to have hypersonic missiles. And now it looks like North Korea will have hypersonic missiles. But last time that I heard, the US has not yet managed to develop one. That is not a very effective MIC from what I can see.

    Reply ↓
    1. johnnyme

      One of the cable news channels yesterday afternoon (I don’t remember which one because we were bouncing through all of them) discussed it very briefly because the bandages on her head were included in one of those hastily drawn courtroom sketches.

      Reply ↓
      1. t

        Seth Harp reposted that picture with a quote from Delta Force soldier MSG William J. Lavigne talking about how Delta operators treat unarmed women taken prisoner during their raids.

        If you have a Twitter account, he’s
        @sethharpesq (if you don’t, Nitter spaces are still working but don’t seem linkable.)

        Reply ↓
        1. Jonhoops

          Do they treat them like “the most ethical army in the world” treats their female Palestinian prisoners?

          Reply ↓
      1. flora

        I don’t know about that. Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. If the US tries to snatch Greenland that could be considered an attack on a NATO country. If NATO fails to respond then NATO is finished, imo. If NATO does respond against its biggest funder, the US, NATO is also finished.

        The thing is, T has been trying to get the US out of NATO or dismantle NATO for some time. So snatching Greenland away from Denmark could be a double win for him. imo.

        I wonder if the tech boys running his admin still believe in the old Technocracy Inc theory of goverment and economics, and ‘spheres of control by experts’?

        See this short description of Technocracy Inc from Boston Rare Maps.
        https://bostonraremaps.com/inventory/technocracy-inc-technate-of-america-1940/

        Reply ↓
        1. vao

          My take:

          1) the USA issue an ultimatum.

          2) EU-NATO issue a strongly-worded joint communiqué opposing a takeover.

          3) USA and EU-NATO meet for “negotiations”.

          4) EU-NATO and USA proudly announce that Greenland becomes a protectorate of the USA, to safeguard NATO deterrence wrt. Russia and Greenland’s natural resources.

          5) Greenland remains formally independent from the USA (no 51st state), with Denmark agreeing to the protectorate. Just like in historical precedents (e.g. Morocco), the local population gets to deal with both a Danish and an American administration.

          6) EU-NATO tout how innovative and rules-based-order-preserving the new arrangement is, and welcomes the conciliatory position of the USA and its readiness for diplomatic solutions.

          7) There is no war, no invocation of article 5, no end of NATO.

          8) Rutte and Trump get the Peace Nobel Prize for their handling of the Greenland crisis.

          9) In the USA, some start suggesting that Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, as well as the Dutch, British, and French possessions in the Caribbean, could be subject to the same kind of arrangement.

          10) After a few decades, Greenland becomes territory of the USA. By then the EU has become so weak and its vassalization so profound, that not even a faint protest is raised.

          Reply ↓
        3. Revenant

          That is fascinating!

          The Technocracy vision of pricing goods by their embedded energy is good physical economics.

          Steve Keen may like to have a word: it is quite a jump to say that this requires fascism to implement!

          Reply ↓
        4. satterle

          As best as I understand it, this is the position of Theil and the Accelerationists. Get rid of democracy and run government like a corporation.

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        5. gf

          “The thing is, T has been trying to get the US out of NATO or dismantle NATO for some time. So snatching Greenland away from Denmark could be a double win for him. imo. ”

          Total misreading of Trump.

          He has always wanted it strengthened.
          But given his conservative ideology (forever the victim of all circumstances) all the other countries must pay more (5% now).

          Also it does not mean the end of NATO .
          Biggest eye roll in recorded history.
          Jesus F C.

          Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      I wonder what would happen if Trump seized Greenland, the NATO countries said nothing and then Denmark announced that it was leaving NATO as it was of no use.

      Reply ↓
      1. Polar Socialist

        Would anyone really notice?

        If Denmark threatened now to leave NATO and offer Narsaq as Russian naval base in exchange for security and nuclear icebreakers keeping the Greenland harbours open all year around – then NATO and US would pay attention.

        It’s the traditional way for small countries to survive. Joining a military alliance is just so stupid, and has always been. They, by definition, always lead to a conflict.

        Reply ↓
  6. TimH

    That Daily Mail article… my bold showing editor notes. Looks like proposing changing the wording of a quote!

    ‘This is going to lead to a further increase in large-size bankruptcies and distress in the economy,’ Barsalona said. ‘We’re just seeing the start of this.’

    XXX Don’t understand this par above – well I kinda do but think it can be clearer. Should it be something like

    ‘Small businesses tend to fall first,’ he said. ‘When enough of them start going under, the stress eventually spreads to larger companies. We’re likely just seeing the beginning of that process.’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-15427659/mom-pop-bankruptcy-recession-main-street.html

    Reply ↓
  7. The Rev Kev

    “Big Oil doesn’t share Trump’s dream of making Venezuelan oil great again”

    Well, no. It would take tens of billions of dollars and take at least a decade. And if everything worked out well, then you would have Venezuelan heavy crude in direct competition with American heavy crude. So what is the point? I am beginning to suspect that when Trump says that he is taking the oil, then lots of supporters are assuming the price of gas will drop dramatically for them. It won’t but I think that is what many people believe.

    Reply ↓
    1. Polar Socialist

      The real irony here is that Venezuelan oil fields have always been open to US oil companies – it’s U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control that’s banning them from operating there.

      Of course the current Bolivarian regime would keep a lot of the profits for Venezuela, but there would still be profits to make (see Chevron and it’s waiver to operate in Venezuela until Feb 2025). I assume the difference in margin would be less than the cost of having a third of the US (sea capable) navy loitering on the Venezuelan coast for several months and the oil wouldn’t go to China (which may be the main point of US “strategy” here).

      Reply ↓
      1. lyman alpha blob

        Not only that, but Venezuela under Chavismo has used that oil to actually help poor USians. I remember this 2006 announcement – Venezuela’s CITGO, Maine Gov. and Tribes Sign Low-Cost Heating Oil Deal – really annoyed certain USian elites as it made people wonder why Venezuela’s government could be so helpful when their own didn’t seem to care.

        Governments that respond to the needs of the people – we can’t have countries going around setting that horrible example, now can we?

        Reply ↓
        1. pjay

          Exactly. No functional example of socialism can be allowed to stand! Such economies must be made to scream until they surrender or collapse, however long it takes. There have been obvious “win-win” solutions to this conflict from the beginning, but they would require the US to permit sovereignty to a government that actually does respond to the needs of its people rather than global Capital.

          Reply ↓
      2. Jhallc

        The oil for the homeowner fuel assistance program that Joe Kennedy started also came from Citgo I believe. Can’t have that!

        Reply ↓
    2. Kilgore Trout

      Does your point makes plausible Larry Johnson’s suggestion that the Venezuela extraction(s) (Maduro and oil) is linked to another attack on Iran by the US and Israel? In that event, the flow of Middle East oil shuts down, as Iran won’t hold back this time, and takes out SA’s oil faccilities and US bases, as well as Israel. To say another attack on Iran by the US is beyond stupid is obvious. Israel would certainly resort to its Samson option as a last resort once things go sideways. Then we’d be lucky if the war is contained to the ME, as Pakistan has vowed to respond. China and Russia are the only adults in the room here urging restraint, but events could quickly overtake their caution. The empire might have its oil, but at best the entire ME would be Gaza-ed. End-stage capitalism seems to be devolving quickly into nihilism and necro-capitalism. Counting on a Sanity Clause in the WH seems a slender reed.

      Reply ↓
    3. ambrit

      I suspect that it is more about denying the Venezuelan heavy crude oil to China. (China is the main purchaser of Venezuelan oil of late.)

      Reply ↓
  8. dons

    the important part of the story, which I have not seen reported elsewhere, is that Maduro’s wife Celia Flores is visibly beaten up and her lawyers say she has broken ribs.

    Well, there was a comment here yesterday about US beating wife and kids, though it was metaphorical.

    Reply ↓
  10. Wukchumni

    Yo VIP, let’s take it

    Ice, ice, baby
    Ice, ice, baby

    Alright stop, collaborate and listen
    Benedict Donald is back with a brand new old intention
    Something grabs a hold of Maduro tightly
    Flow of heavy crude daily and nightly
    “Will it ever stop?” Yo, I don’t know
    Turn off NATO, huh, and let the Ukraine go
    To the extreme, he looks like your basic visogoth or vandal
    Light up a land grab and wax a chump like a candle
    Dance, rush to a Greenland natural resource boom
    He’s killing your brain like a poisonous mushroom
    Deadly when he plays a rope-a-dope melody
    Anything less than his best lies is a felony
    Love it or leave it, armed forces better get under way
    Something is rotten in the state of Denmark he’ll say
    And if there was a problem, yo, he’ll solve it
    Check out the danishes on the table while his apparatchiks revolve it

    Ice, ice, baby
    Greenland Ice, ice, baby
    Greenland Ice, ice, baby
    Greenland Ice, ice, baby

    Now that the climate change party is jumpin’
    With all those oil wells pumpin’
    Quick to the point, to the point of hot hot hot, no fakin’
    Cookin’ democracies like a pound of bacon
    Burnin’ ’em if you’re not quick and nimble
    I go crazy when I hear of his status symbols
    And a high horse with a souped up tempo
    I’m on a roll, it’s time to go Han Solo

    Ice Ice Baby, by Vanilla Ice

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoYfh2UBuDw&list=RDLoYfh2UBuDw

    Reply ↓
  11. principle

    Scientists say octopuses sometimes slap fish for no reason.— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) January 6, 2026

    According to fish sources, completly unprovoked acts of aggression.

    Reply ↓
    1. vao

      Regarding the specific video: I think that the octopus was actually trying to prevent the fish from occupying the cosy crevice serving as a home for the cephalopod.

      Reply ↓
    3. pjay

      Every ten years or so, an octopus needs to pick up some small crappy little fish and throw it against the wall, just to show other ocean dwellers that they mean business. Its just a Law of Nature.

      Reply ↓
  12. flora

    re: Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland – New York Times (resilc)

    Greenland is part of the Greater Isr project? Who knew? / ;)

    Reply ↓
    1. AG

      This I originally wanted to post to your yesterday point re: Walter Kirn.
      I put it here because the link is a tour de force outlook on 2026+ and touches basically everything.

      “I can´t judge Kirn the same way. But since you speculate on “big and ugly”:
      This is a Chinese analyst who does game theory talking to Glenn Diesen.

      He lays out 2026+ on the global scale and how US will try to force China into a “grand bargain” by bullying Global South into subservience and by controlling China´s access points for its non-US oil. That is Venezuela and using Japan to block the Street of Malacca re: MidEast oil supply. So China eventually has to get all its oil from the US, stabilizing Dollar.

      The question being, if China would risk to rely on RU oil instead 100% to deny the US this leverage.

      His bottom-line for 2026: US wants a deal with China when Trump visits in April. Which he calls the core event. And when that is done (unclear yet how China will react) US needs to take out Iran. Which in this person´s view is “ground attack”. And the pivotal point because RU will defend Iran. Another question is will China side with Iran too?

      The conversation does not touch the military side of all this – i.e. RU military supremacy which would make any serious war a potential disaster for the US/Israel. Instead kind of skips the course of such events, because in the end it´s US collapse anyway.

      He ends I think with NATO getting into a war with RU over Odessa, and then NATO collapsing too.

      In between are potential mass coups of Mexico, Cuba, Columbia, Greenland.
      It´s a bit outsized and megalomaniac to assume the US seriously will carry that out and actually will be able to succeed until a certain point.

      Diesen unfortunately does not point at how US forces aleady failed against Yemen.”

      Jiang Xueqin: Predictions for 2026 – Empire, Rivalry & Collapse
      Jan. 6th
      60 min.
      https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/jiang-xueqin-predictions-for-2026

      p.s. I haven´t checked yet but the title sounds the same alarm:

      Daniel Davis: Chaos & More Wars After the Attack on Venezuela
      21 min.
      https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/daniel-davis-chaos-and-more-wars

      Reply ↓
      1. Jonhoops

        Jang kind of gets out over his skis sometimes, especially when it comes to military logistics. How he can even imagine some kind of land invasion of Iran is pretty ridiculous. With what army? It took the US a year of build up to prep for the Iraq war. Also now with Iran supposedly possessing Iskanders how safe are those carriers and US bases they need to project into Iran?

        Reply ↓
        1. Wukchumni

          Jang kind of gets out over his skis sometimes

          I’ve mentioned it before, but this is an awful saying in that i’ve never known anybody to tumble over their skis because they get too far out over them, and the best skiers in the world very much get over their skis all the time…

          Try something more like

          ‘Jang kind of crosses over his tips sometimes with resultant crashes’

          Reply ↓
        2. AG

          This was my first Jiang. I was very skeptical when I saw he is doing game theory particularly due to the point you make
          “when it comes to military logistics” since these analyses for a reason I don´t understand leave out this fundamental part.
          But was worth it.

          Interesting about Diesen that he lets his guests talk along their lines of thinking without ever questioning them in their essence. Reminds me of Chris Hedges, who despite his own very outspoken texts and positions as interviewer manages to step back.

          Reply ↓
        3. bertl

          People imagine very strange things when they believe they have the power to bring them off. The most obvious example is Germany’s decision to invade Russia without settling the conflict with the British on Germany’s terms in the belief that the conflict with Russia would be resolved before winter set in.

          The entire war was resolved at Stalingrad but in Russia’s favour and, as my father and uncles never ceased to tell me, this boosted the morale of the Eighth army even more than Monty’s generalship because the pre-war professionals recognised that Germany could not win the wider war and it was just going to be a very bloody job clearing the European branches of the Axis up.

          I suspect many of the crazies around Trump are fabulists suggesting that with a few preliminary (very difficult to define but expensive, ie, profitable for the MIC) stages and with the support of the IDF, a land invasion leading to victory is not only possible, it is inevitable.

          I think game theory can be useful in examining possible outcomes and in re-determining the significant variables, through addition or subtraction, and re-assessing the probabiltities assigned to each possible play. The example you give – the lack of a mass army and the vulnerability of every US carrier and land base. The pattern was set by Hitler as Germany staggered into total defeat, he maintained his belief that Germany’s phantom armies were real and he was giving orders based on that assumption.

          Reply ↓
    3. The Rev Kev

      I heard today that Trump wants to put Stephen Miller in charge of Venezuela. What could possibly go wrong? I honestly suspect him of being a few planes short of an air force due to his rants.

      Reply ↓
  13. The Rev Kev

    “The U.S. Won’t Be Able to ‘Run’ Venezuela”

    I was thinking earlier today about the occupation of Iraq. The Bush White House assumption was that American businessmen would be able to spread out throughout Iraq and get profitable businesses set up such as a chain of 7-11s. But as it turned out, they were stuck inside the Green Zone and could only move outside there with a full military escort. I’m thinking that the same could happen in Venezuela – but without being able to have a military escort. Who would want to be an American corporate exec wandering through Caracas.

    Reply ↓
    1. Craig H.

      Who would want to be an American corporate exec wandering through Caracas.

      They get hazardous duty pay. They always have. The last time I looked the highest rate was around +67% of whatever you made if you took a job in Nigeria. Venezuela always had this type of hazardous duty pay even before it got rough but it was more in the 25-33% range.

      Everybody has their price! (and for some it is lower than you think)

      Reply ↓
    3. ciroc

      If several Americans were attacked in Venezuela, it would give Trump the perfect excuse to demand more from Caracas.

      Reply ↓
  14. t

    There are already many US-based and major global brands doing business in Venezuela and the local C suit folk have perfected managing in a corrupt environment without doing anything obvious enough to be a legal issue or screw up their taxes. Their jobs just got harder.

    Thought I saw something about Elon making his usual “free” Starlink offers and wondered if that was designed as an advantage in a market where other services have been, from time to time, sabatoged by the local government.

    No idea how much crypto they have.

    Chaos, for sure.

    Reply ↓
  15. Jeremy Grimm

    RE: “Revolutionary generator transforms Chinese factories into power plants”
    After so many announcements of revolutionary new gizmos it is difficult not to have some reservations about becoming too excited by yet another such announcement. If the new generator design is a reality, and if it could be available at ‘reasonable’ cost, and if it could be scaled down … it might make running a small kiln at home for art projects a little bit more doable. Maybe the natural gas from waste dumps could be turned into electricity to feed into town electric grids?

    [I think I feel a strong need to find something to feel weakly optimistic about in today’s news.

    Reply ↓
  16. Wukchumni

    Its feels awfully weird, as if the Reichsmark was the world’s reserve currency in say early September 1939, and the pm’s are screaming loud that this will not stand…

    Reply ↓
    1. Donaldoo

      Not at all. Iran aready has respectable, and combat proven, ballistic missile arsenal. They lack in other things, that they are maybe ordering from Russia. The report is probably false.

      Reply ↓
  18. Wukchumni

    The sound of tireless voices is the price we pay for the right to hear the music of our own opinions. But there is also, it seems to me, a moment at which democracy must prove its capacity to act. Every man has a right to be heard; but no man has the right to strangle democracy with a single set of vocal cords.

    Adlai Stevenson

    Reply ↓
        1. erstwhile

          larry ellison thinks that in the end the man with the most goys wins – and he does. And the roberts court agrees.

          Reply ↓
  19. Frank

    This person seems pretty confident in what he writes.

    Silicon shock is the big ‘26 theme

    The world has suddenly realized it needs to convert sand into “intelligence” at a rate that defies physics. The demand for compute, specifically, the high-performance silicon required to process AI tokens, has not increased by 50% or 100%. Depending on how you measure the “token,” the fundamental unit of AI thought, demand has exploded by anywhere from 40x to 100x in the last 18 months.

    https://asiatimes.com/2026/01/silicon-shock-is-the-big-26-theme/

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      It doesn’t sound sustainable – either the physics wins, or the bar runs out of booze before it has to.

      I look around at every app bolting on an “AI assistant,” and I smell a tech trend that will be laughed at in a few years, sort of the way we laugh at Clippy now.

      Just like computing and storage moved to the cloud, it makes zero sense for decentralized AI systems, all using up huge amounts of power and computing. There will be a shakeout, with maybe three main players gobbling up the market. Right now, it looks like Google is in the lead, but Microsoft is right behind. OpenAI is being kept afloat just to stop Google from dominating.

      I’m searching for the best analogy to AI assistants:

      1. Clippy
      2. The way every website had “best viewed with Internet Explorer/Mozilla/Netscape” in 1995
      3. 8-track players in the Chevy Luv pickup
      4. Other?

      We’ll all be cringing by 2030, I predict.

      Reply ↓
    2. ChrisFromGA

      Reading the link, there seems to be a major flaw in the thesis.

      The author compares the “silica shock” to the “oil shocks” of the 70s. However, there is a key distinction: unlike oil, which the modern economy requires, the economy doesn’t need AI. This is evidently the case, for as recently as 2023, there was virtually no business process that required it, nor a market for it. And GDP was just fine.

      If Big Tech creates a shock by cornering the market in silica and chips for AI, then they’re in for a rude awakening. Nobody will want AI that costs a fortune to use. Right now, users are getting trained to use ChatGPT and Co-Pilot for free, for everything from cooking recipes to juicing up Google searches (at a very high computational cost, as the author rightly points out.)

      But once those queries are no longer free, people will adapt and go back to things that worked in 2023. And as far as agents, good luck with that. Very few CEOs are going to re-engineer their business processes to rely on an untested technology, and one that might just collapse due to real-world physical constraints.

      Reply ↓
  20. Watt4Bob

    Tim Walz’s career was ended by having Kamala Harris tied around his neck.

    There’s a case to be made that that decision, made by democratic leadership, was actually an effort to sideline an up-and-coming star of the stature of Bernie, AOC, or Mamdoni.

    Walz is from a state that republicans would love to turn red, and they find it intolerable that people of Minnesota enjoy one of, if not the sanest political environments in the nation.

    IOW, we set a bad example, and provide evidence that a more humane politics is workable.

    I think up until the embarrassing positioning next to Harris, Walz was at least respected by most Minnesotans as an honest civil servant.

    While republicans have attacked his handling of BLM, and Covid, as expected, those efforts had only minimal effect.

    Then his own party hung Kamala around his neck, touched him with their magic wand, and voila, the DFL get their first female governor, the senator from United Health, Amy Klobuchar, and the nation dodges another dangerous threat from the radical left wing.

    It seems to me, the ‘full-court-press’ style of the current attacks, related to fraud on the part of Somali immigrants evince TPTB’s skill at manufacturing consensus.

    With a lot of help from the media, they turned a $250M fraud into a $9B fraud, and a political threat, and a decent and fair man into a nobody.

    IMO, that’s the story.

    Reply ↓
      1. Watt4Bob

        Sounds like the definition of insanity to me…

        …or (20028?) Peter Thiel successfully solves the whole immortality thing.

        Reply ↓
    2. Dornbirn Panther

      I had a somewhat different take on it, but still related to the election and his choice as VP.

      It sure seems like Walz was an awful pick for VP in retrospect given this scandal. My first thought after this blew up was that this would surely have scared a hypothetical Harris administration from doing anything remotely progressive, and might still ended up with a Walz resignation.

      In an alternate timeline would the Minnesota welfare scandal have been latest excuse for why a Democrat administration can’t deliver concrete material benefits this term?

      Reply ↓
      1. Watt4Bob

        “My first thought after this blew up was that this would surely have scared a hypothetical Harris administration from doing anything remotely progressive…”

        What on earth makes you think Harris would ever attempt ‘anything remotely progressive’?

        And when has the democratic party ever cared about the quality of their excuses?

        My guess is that Walz, along with the rest of the DFL leadership, due to their hubris, and an ingrained habit of deference to minorities, women and the rest of the idpol groups, simply kept doing business as usual, meaning all benefits in the USA are distributed by Public-Private partnerships.

        That’s the same thinking that has us enduring the systemic looting of funds intended to pay for what passes for healthcare in our country.

        A further guess is that Walz had a lot of help from the DFL leadership in ignoring whistle-blowers.

        Reply ↓
  21. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Planting crops in 2026 may be pointless

    And the reason is this –

    “The fair weather recently has been good for the winter crops, but he says the prices being offered for wheat by grain traders are still not covering the cost of production.”

    The BBC does not question this arrangement. If the farmer does, the BBC did not print it. Ever since I first realized that my family did not get to charge their own price for the milk they produced but had to accept what was on offer by commodity traders no matter their own costs, I’ve been appalled. My family’s farm is now done because of this arrangement, as are thousands of other small farms.

    This is a deliberate choice by governments all across the world to continue with this system. Farms get larger and more corporate, and the people they employ are increasingly resembling slaves. I swear, if hear one more “liberal” tell us all how we need to keep importing more desperate people and pay them extremely poorly to do the jobs no one else wants to do, when I and members of my family did do these very jobs until fairly recently and made decent livings doing so, I may have to start retorting by asking when liberal goodthinkers like themselves became such fans of chattel slavery.

    Reply ↓
  23. Jason Boxman

    On NoLimit’s tweet, this stuff is always fun

    I’ve been in macro for 20+ years, and I’ve built a free guide on what to do in these conditions. Comment “GUIDE” if you want it.

    I’ve called every major top and bottom of the last decade, and when I make my next move, I’ll say it here publicly.

    If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

    If you’re that successful, why are you selling a service? Man, I’d be kicking it on a beach somewhere sipping a margarita. With proper position sizing and risk management, you’d be ridiculously rich.

    Anyway, it isn’t about tops and bottoms, it’s about compounding and taking pieces out of moves. You don’t need the whole move, the top, or the bottom.

    Reply ↓
    1. Acacia

      In another tweet today, he’s sounding the alarm about how rising JGB yields are effectively a global liquidity withdrawal, and that if the 10y bond rate rises too quickly “things break”.

      Idk if this is doomium or…

      Reply ↓
  24. OB Ron Kenobee

    Imagine how the Chinese delegation felt, the group who met with Maduro hours before the rendition, fixing in time and space Maduro’s security detail. Whatever the delegation discussed earlier in the evening with Maduro is probably up in the air, now. Unless it was discussion of how China was scaling back its investments in military infrastructure. Maduro hears it first from friends.

    The Chavistas, filling the exact same post-colonial roles of historical “colonialists”, are still in power with the same reflexive slogans (Maduro’s “To doubt is treason”). Maybe they understand now what Xi (Asia / Africa), Putin (Eurasia *snort*), and Trump (The Americas) have planned for their spheres is soooo much worse. Venezuela was just traded away for Ukraine and Taiwan like a late-19th century political cartoon had a baby with an air defense network. Trump’s hair is practically already sideways bicorne. All three sphere-lords are painfully provincial in their reads of history, fresh-off their internal purges, full of vinegar, now or never.

    The other side also gets a say. The tri-polar world is still-born: all three leaders have unexpectedly ceded tactical control on some level. Putin’s pinned in Ukraine; gamer culture beats the Red Army. Xi’s never planned for the possibility of swarms of marine UAVs scuttling his Taiwan strategy at their piers. Trump, real estate depreciation dealer, has no clue that territory does not make an empire: navigation does. And the US’s global reach and collective attention span has gotten a whole lot shorter in accord with Trump’s garbage dump of a worldview.

    Reply ↓
    1. Kilgore Trout

      I think you’re being too hard on Putin in particular. Left to his own devices, I don’t think he’d be interested in recreating a Russian/Soviet empire, contra what you seem to imply. He may still hope for a peaceful Europe united from Rotterdam to Vladivostok, though that seems a long way off now.

      But he’s been forced to play the hand dealt to him by the West. having first to overcome the devastating effects of the economic shock therapy administered by the West while Yeltsin was in nominal charge. He’s done that, while also dealing with Chechnya and Georgia, AND trying in vain to persuade the West to stop NATO expansion.

      Turning Ukraine into a de-facto NATO/CIA armed camp was the last straw, forcing Putin to launch the SMO–reluctantly, while having to adapt to the West’s escalating economic sanctions. IMO, Putin’s so far managed to walk the line between capitulating to the West and giving in to the hardliners in Moscow. Putin may be “pinned” in Ukraine, but he’s inflicted a strategic defeat on the West in the process, while managing to keep the Russian economy going and making life better for most Russians since the ’90’s. And maintaining good relations with the 85% of the world’s people who just want to build decent lives for themselves, in the face of our destructive nihilism.

      Reply ↓
    2. NotThePilot

      These are very early days and anything’s possible, but I’d push back against the interpretation that Venezuela has been traded away by anyone. I think it’s still very much its own country, and after everything Trump has done, it’s probably never been more motivated to fight.

      The assumption that Rodriguez and the other Chavistas have sold out rests entirely on the media (mainstream and social) uncritically repeating what Trump says about his supposed plans and the operation (the US has been covering up casualties probably my whole adult life), or taking things out of context (like the selective quotations of Rodriguez’s insta post). Even Al-Jazeera English has been hilariously repeating his comments as facts, then back-pedaling several times these past couple days.

      Regardless of whether Maduro was personally betrayed or Caracas was genuinely ambushed, I still think there’s a strong chance Trump just accidentally put the Bolivarian version of the Gang of Four in charge of the country. Again, very early days, but the FT link (and now Bloomberg too) reporting colectivos in the streets checking even cell-phones for pro-US content lines up with that.

      Reply ↓
    2. barefoot charley

      Indeed, to be reminded of the times when intellectual life was alive. Though it’s funny that the most celebrated thinkers present–de Beauvoir and Sartre–were barely there at all. A fine nostalgic read.

      Reply ↓
  26. Aurelien

    I’m glad you included the AJ story on forthcoming problems between the Kurdish SDF and the new government in Damascus, because it is a problem without an evident solution which could blow the country apart, and the leaders involved are not particularly experienced in this sort of thing. Those interested in the subject might want to follow the This Week in Northern Syria blog, which has a detailed explanation of what’s going on:

    https://akmckeever.substack.com/p/this-week-in-northern-syria-502025

    Reply ↓
    1. NotThePilot

      Syria’s trajectory is really hard to get a read-on, with most media really biased for or against the new government. I was somebody that was “cautiously optimistic” (entirely my fault) when the Assad government first fell, but now I’m starting to think Syria might wind up becoming a lot like Cambodia after the Khmer Rouge.

      I don’t think it’s ever going to get as bad as it was when ISIS was rampant, and I don’t think the country will disintegrate entirely, but it’s not going anywhere great fast.

      Reply ↓
      1. Polar Socialist

        Around 70% of Syrians are more loyal to the clan or the tribe than to the “state”. During Assad’s time the importance of the clans in the public society and running things was diminishing, but now they are trying to re-assert themselves.

        It’s my understanding, and it may well be wrong, that both al-Jolani and Russians had better connections to the clan elders than Assad’s regime, which is why there was a regime change and Russians new better than to fight it.

        Thousands of sheiks have to now figure out the new pecking order, new alliances and new loyalties. This takes time – even to reach a general understanding – and while it’s happening (sometimes violently), they’re content with al-Jolani presenting himself to foreigners as the head of the “state”.

        Damascus was an important city already on the 11th century BC, so Syrians are accustomed to different timescale – in the grand scheme of things what’s a year, a decade or even a century? Because Damascus is eternal.

        Reply ↓
        1. NotThePilot

          You’re absolutely right about Syria being a very old society, and I actually hadn’t thought about this as a giant tribal reorganization like you mentioned.

          I suppose I’ve just been disappointed to see the new government play out so far. I’m definitely biased and I’m not Syrian so my feelings really aren’t important, but it seems to be learning all the wrong lessons for keeping a society like that together.

          Reply ↓
        2. Roland

          Syrians have a lot of national pride. When I was in Syria, I didn’t see much in the way in the tribalism.

          Bear in mind that the modern Syrian state did not fracture naturally. It took more than a decade of war, funded heavily by outside powers, including a substantial invasion by the Turkish army, to break down the centralized Syrian state.

          Almost any other nation on Earth would suffer disunity and instability if subjected to the same degree of interference. If anything, Syrian nationhood has held up better and longer than most Western nations would have.

          My country, Canada, would have completely shattered if we had been subjected to the same outside forces that pressed upon Syria. But nobody here goes around saying how “tribalist” Canadians are.

          Reply ↓
          1. Rocco

            Balkanization never happens naturally, by itself. It’s all about outside powers doing the same old divide and conquer thing. While doing that, those same outside powers will keep on talking about locals hating each other, and being tribal, backward, primitive, and whatnot. People in the west always buy it, because it makes them feel civilized and beter than those “lesser people” that just can’t get along with each other.

            Reply ↓
  29. Wukchumni

    Regarding Norwegian children that can’t remember shit…

    There is no reward currently for remembering anything if you are of a certain age, but once upon a time before the turn of the century, rote memorization was in its say 70,000th year of being what made us able to plan for the future and remember what happened in the past-a powerful tool that we basically abandoned.

    The claim is that young people don’t read books anymore, and if you can’t remember what happened in earlier chapters, what drudgery it must be to them, especially when there are so many 12 second Tik Tok videos to devour, yum yum.

    Reply ↓
  31. ChrisFromGA

    “Milk Carton” Mike Johnson’s razor-thin majority takes another hit:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5674356-doug-lamalfa-northern-califoria-republican-dies/

    At this point, with M T-G gone (moment of silence, please) it’s 218-213, which means he can only afford 2 defectors, one of whom is virtually guaranteed on any issue involving war powers or fiscal discipline, namely Thomas Massie.

    That leaves Boebert, Luna, and other potential malcontents to act as spanners in the works. And, there are two Democratic vacancies that, if filled, would bring up the Democratic numbers to the point where Johnson could only afford one defector. That makes Massie the equivalent of Joe Manchin.

    (Vagaries of special election dates might determine whether or not the margin really reaches a single vote. Johnson might just adjourn the House again, though, to avoid seating a lawfully elected Democrat, if it threatens his ability to remain as Speaker.)

    Reply ↓
  32. Martin Oline

    Here is a commentary of the 1993 60 Minutes broadcast concerning the CIA and Venezuelan national guard importing a ton of cocaine into the U.S. Most of the original broadcast is shown. “We had to smuggle tons of cocaine into the U. S. in order to get them to trust us.” You can’t make this stuff up.

    Reply ↓
  33. AG

    Andrei Martyanov´s Russian realism:

    “Per lament of a well-known contingent who continues to view Russia as somehow the power responsible for liberating the combined West, including the US, from a collection of nutjobs by means of defeat of this said West. Nope, I have bad news for you–Russia, unlike the Soviet Union (and even then), will not waste her resources on anyone, unless she sees a real use for her own national interests. For the 12th year I repeat ad nauseam in this blog, that if need be Russia will “negotiate” with the Devil, e.g. Syria, where Russia still maintains her military bases. But now it is the time to openly state what Russian military-intel professionals knew for a very long time–Latin America is essentially a Western Hemisphere’s Arab World, all of it is about the price tag. Africa, and some of her leaders have more integrity and principles than what we observed in Venezuela, which is now covered in national shame, they may never recover.

    All that being said, nothing has changed factually on the ground: the US military remains obsolete, it cannot plan, let alone conduct real massive combined arms operations, it is only capable of psyops and raids similar to Venezuelan against backward enemies who do not shoot back. So, what’s left then? Greenland, where the US will send a military police squad to “regime change” and that will be it. It will also be touted as a great victory. When you lose all your wars, this will do.”

    Reply ↓
  34. Jason Boxman

    It is amusing to no end that it is the AI bubble, rather than the existential crisis that is Climate, that is driving this renewed interest in nuclear

    Optimism About Nuclear Energy Is Rising Again. Will It Last? (NY Times)

    And of course the answer to the headline is: No.

    Once a home of the Manhattan Project, the fields surrounded by forested valleys and rolling hills in Oak Ridge, Tenn., could soon yield another nuclear first.

    Concrete foundations and pilings are rising here for what is expected to be one of the first of a new generation of nuclear power plants, known as small modular reactors. The company behind it, Kairos Power, has been developing its technology for almost a decade and is now deep in the throes of construction.

    Many companies are racing to build reactors that experts say could, over time, be cheaper than the kind of large nuclear power plants that have been in use for decades. To hear corporate executives and government officials tell it, the world is at the dawn of a new nuclear age that will provide cheap energy and satiate artificial intelligence technology’s staggering appetite for electricity.

    At the center of this promise is the idea of shrinking the vessels where nuclear reactions heat water to produce steam used to spin turbines. The components of these smaller reactors, the thinking goes, can be mass-produced and assembled more easily than conventional designs built by a small army of highly skilled workers.

    We also have

    Elon Musk’s xAI Raises $20 Billion

    The funding is part of an A.I. frenzy, as investors aggressively plow enormous sums into fast-growing start-ups at sky-high valuations.

    People are gonna start to experience number-go-zero at some point.

    In a statement, xAI said it had sought to raise $15 billion but ended up getting more from eager investors. Two people with knowledge of the matter said the investment could push xAI’s valuation above $230 billion, which it was on track to hit when it was raising $15 billion. That would make xAI, founded in 2023, one of the fastest-rising companies in value for Mr. Musk.

    What an incredible con artist, and people worship Musk. It’s pretty mind bending. Even a better con than the We Work guy that walked away with billions.

    Reply ↓
  36. Jason Boxman

    So it looks like if you have the misfortune of need to make quarterly estimated tax payments to the IRS, you now need to sign up for an ID.me account, which appears to be a third party, to be able to make such payments. ID.me seems to be a login or identify provider.

    And wouldn’t you know it, it can’t pull subscriber data from Spectrum, so I have to wait to be connected to a live verifier to whom I can show my driver’s license, after having uploaded this and a secondary identifying document. And here I am still waiting in line.

    It’s creepy that your cell phone account is now being used to verify your identity, but that’s apparently where we are now as a society. And if for whatever reason you pick the wrong cell phone provider, not one of the top 2 or 3 I guess, you might be screwed. If you use VoIP like Google Voice, you are also screwed.

    I’ve been bounced from a 5 minute wait back up to a 15 minute wait, back and forth. Great experience so far.

    All so someone doesn’t fraudulently pay my taxes on my behalf.

    What a horror.

    Daily we see the ongoing enshitification of society.

    If I bail out I can re-enter the queue against having lost “my place”. We’ve all lost our place.

    And this identity verification is almost certainly done by starvation labor in some country abroad.

    LOL back to ten minutes again from 5. What a joke.

    Reply ↓
    1. kareninca

      My father in law makes quarterly payments and he just sends in paper vouchers; I found this (“Mail: You can print and fill out Form 1040-ES payment vouchers and mail them with a check or money order.”) When I use turbo tax it lets me print out paper vouchers (which I have so far ignored and just had more withheld by paycheck, since I have read that the IRS often loses such payments). Still, I have seen other people say that they have been trapped into using ID.me, so I don’t doubt that there is some situation like you describe.

      Reply ↓

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