Recent Items

Links 2/14/2026

Posted on by

Skip Kaltenheuser: We Surely Need an Army of Howies Now Down With Tyranny. Howie Klein, R.I.P.

Woman sentenced for accusing her estranged spouse of illegally accessing bank account from outer space KBTX (resilc)

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Exclusive: Key US infectious-diseases centre to drop pandemic preparation Nature (Dr. Kevin). They really do want to kill us.

Climate/Environment

Scientists thought they understood global warming. Then the past three years happened. Washington Post

The world is closer than thought to a “point of no return” after which runaway global heating cannot be stopped, scientists have said. Guardian

Despite Eastern U.S. cold, January 2026 was one of the world’s warmest Januaries on record Yale Climate Connection

Three days left: AZ faces deeper Colorado River cuts as federal deadline looms KNXV – Phoenix Scripps

Tornado frequency in Türkiye increases by approximately 60% due to climate change Anadolu Agency

Climate crisis linked to fall in southern right whale birth rates as researchers raise ‘warning signal’ Guardian

China?

Why China’s central bank won’t save the country from deflation Economist. Note:

Bloomberg, a news agency, reported on February 9th that China’s regulators have warned commercial banks against holding too many American government bonds. Some banks have been told to cut their exposure….

Are fears of Sino-American financial warfare finally coming true? Thankfully not. In guiding its banks, China was not making a fresh geopolitical threat. At most, it was trying to limit the banks’ vulnerability to the many geopolitical threats that already exist. Dollar bonds have been a tempting asset for Chinese lenders, offering higher returns than similar securities at home. But any hit to the dollar could inflict heavy losses on overexposed lenders.

China housing market shows no clear turning point as price declines continue South China Morning Post

Japan

Japan seizes Chinese fishing boat inside its economic waters amid rift with Beijing Guardian

Japan will soon learn how far Takaichi can ride her luck South China Morning Post

Antipodes

Millions of litres lost: fire and drought leave north-east farmers on the brink Stock and Land (Australia)

Africa

Morocco struggles to evacuate thousands amid unprecedented floods Middle East Online

Three Key South African Cities Hit by Water-Supply Shortages Bloomberg

European Disunion

Munich Security Conference Evangelizes European War Simplicius

Wrecking-ball politics German Foreign Politics (Micael T)

France slashes renewable energy targets, expands nuclear power with new law France24

Heating bills have become a disaster for the Baltics Vzglyad via machine translation (Micael T)

Farmers to drive tractors into central Athens for mass protest ekathimerini

Old Blighty

Britain is on course for its weakest decade of growth in a century, according to the latest GDP figures LBC

British bread under threat as wheat fields flooded Telegraph

Palestine Action vindicated in court Asa Winstanley

Ruling against Palestine Action ban is embarrassing defeat for the government Guardian. It’s hard to think the Starmer government can be more embarrassed after Mandelson but general point taken.

“None of Us Knew”: The Classified Epstein Intelligence Trail That Runs Straight Through Starmer’s Defense Sayer Ji

Conflicts of interest Richard Murphy (Colonel Smithers). Aurelien notes:

Technically, the Cabinet Secretary is not likely to approve any contracts: his Department, which is tiny, spends very little money. But it looks bad, insofar as every time her husband gets a contract it will be alleged that she played a role.

I can’t understand why we have come to this: the Cabinet Secretaries of the past were unimpeachable career civil servants who would have been relentlessly security checked since their youth. I have no idea what the world is coming to.

Israel v. The Resistance

Trump hasn’t bombed Iran yet. He must be reading these polls Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

Unusual activities at Iranian nuclear sites; US warships collide in Caribbean Janta Ka Reporter. Good photos of rebuilding of the obliterated nuclear sites.

Syraqistan

US forces complete transfer of thousands of ISIS detainees from Syria to Iraq The Hill. fk: “Gee, why are all of these monsters headed to Iraq?”

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky rules out referendum on ‘bad deal’ as European leaders gather in Munich Independent

Russia Memo Sees Return to Dollar System in Pitch Made for Trump Bloomberg. Presupposes an agreement to end the war, which is na ga happen.

Is Spring Kiev’s End time? Julian Macfarlane

The Calculus of Conflict: How Russia’s Military Doctrine is Reshaping Modern Warfare [i] Black Mountain Analysis

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

Meta Plans to Add Facial Recognition Technology to Its Smart Glasses New York Times (resilc). Yet another reason to wear a mask in public.

Dude, where’s my surveillance footage? 404 Media

Ring kills Flock partnership amid surveillance scrutiny The Register

Imperial Collapse Watch

Western countries see World War III coming Politico

Russia and China Are Expanding their Cooperation to Counter US Efforts to Bully Iran and Cuba Larry Johnson

Trump 2.0

The MAGA Bubble Is Imploding Paul Krugman

The US cannot be trusted to lead a critical minerals coalition Financial Times

Trump’s Public/Private Situationships In the Public Interest

Trump to undo legal basis for US climate rules France24

Trump’s Religious Liberties Commission Implodes Over Zionism Ian Welsh (Micael T)

Big Business Has Pam Bondi Fire Trump’s Antitrust Chief Matt Stoller

Tariffs

US House overturns Trump’s Canada tariffs in rare bipartisan rebuke France24

Democrats’ tariff gambit sparks new headaches for Mike Johnson The Hill

Trump tariffs hammer volume of Scotch whisky exports to US Herald Scotland

ICE Rampage

Exclusive: ICE Masks Up in More Ways Than One Ken Klippenstein (Chuck L)

The Watchdog Designed To Keep ICE In Check Is Being Quietly Erased The Lever

BodyCam Footage EXPOSES CBP Lies In Shooting of US Citizen Breaking Views

Democrats have the leverage in the shutdown over ICE G. Elliott Morris

If ICE Pulls You Over, Say These 4 Words Immediately (LAWYER Explains) YouTube. Sadly, news you can use. There are others in this genre, but this one is short and hammers in what to say.

MAHA

How pediatricians found themselves at war with RFK Jr. STAT

L’affaire Epstein

Bondi faces MAGA media backlash after hearing on Epstein The Hill

A Play-By-Play Of Jeffrey Epstein’s Staggering Financial Illiteracy Racket News. Again confirming that all it takes to look like a brilliant investor is inside information

Economy

Secular Shifts In Employment Brian Romanchuk

Detroit Automakers Take $50 Billion Hit as EV Bubble Bursts Wall Street Journal

Trade bellwether Singapore says global ‘fragility’ will hit economy Financial Times

Mr. Market is Edgy

Rally in corporate bonds prompts ‘bubble’ fears Financial Times

Beware the private-credit dark money infecting Wall Street Globe & Mail

AI

Anthropic Declares $20 Million War On OpenAI Futurism

Seedance, Kling and the Chinese AI Video Ecosystem China Talk

Guillotine Watch

‘A different set of rules’: thermal drone footage shows Musk’s AI power plant flouting clean air regulations Guardian (Kevin W)

Class Warfare

US Household Debt Hits Fresh Record Trading Views

Is MAGA pushing the Catholic Church to the left? Vox

NYC still struggling to replace emergency housing vouchers set to expire under Trump Gothamist

Antidote du jour. Mark T: “Carmine Bee-eater.”

A bonus:

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Subscribe to Post Comments
107 comments

      1. Mark Gisleson

        Thanks for mentioning this. I’ve been having the same drag’n’drop problem (only at X) but had assumed it was part of my suspension.

  3. The Rev Kev

    “Munich Security Conference Evangelizes European War”

    Not really surprised that you have the big European nations banging the drums for war with Russia as these people are demented and you expect nothing less from them. But one thing that still surprises me is how NATO has still refused to take in the lessons of the Ukrainian war. The ‘WSJ reports a single Ukrainian team of 10 drone operators was able to eliminate “two NATO battalions” in a single day without any losses.’ This was in a military exercise but JHC, this war has been going on for over four long years now. NATO has had their troops fighting in the Ukraine on the sly and presumably sending back intel reports. By now NATO should be on near par with the Russian military but apparently not. The only change I can see is the issuance of a contracts for a bunch of drones but no fundamental change in doctrine, equipment or tactics. I would go so far as to say that the Ukrainian army in its present battered state would still be capable of mopping the floor of NATO land forces.

    1. vao

      Somebody with a good view of how knowledge acquisition is carried out in the military, and how experience reports, frontline debriefing, and feedback are incorporated into tactical / operational / strategic principles should chime in. From the little I gleaned, there is often quite some resistance against incorporating “real life” insights when they require extensive revisions of an established corpus of doctrine.

      It seems to me that the “NATO [having] their troops fight in the Ukraine on the sly” has thus far meant scattered soldiers and advisors on the frontline, and specialists working with Ukrainians in the rear on very specific aspects (e.g. satellite communications, planning of seaborne attacks).

      If so, it means there is no actual experience with soldiers, NCOs, officers operating as a coherent unit and getting a comprehensive view of the new ways of fighting, the problems encountered, the various practical ways to address them — and all this at every level from the grunt up to the regiment / brigade / division staff.

      The only ones who have that experience are (in decreasing order):

      1) the Russians;

      2) the Ukrainians; if 10 Ukrainians can indeed put two NATO battalions out of action in war exercises, then this shows how much experience they gathered in 4 years, and should also have NATO leaders break in a cold sweat as to what that means regarding the level of Russian skills;

      3) the North Koreans, who sent something ranging from a regiment to a division (reports are inconsistent), integrated in the Russian forces on the Kursk front.

      I strongly suspect the North Koreans were very, very keen on learning about the new ways of war, jumped on the opportunity to deploy on what is diplomatically non-controversial Russian soil, and they did it not by sending scattered volunteers, but entire units (with soldiers, NCOs, officers). I do not know how efficient the DPRK army is regarding the incorporation of frontline experience into its doctrine, but at least there seems to have been a serious intent to bring it up to date.

      1. Aurelien

        I have the same feeling, though it may actually be worse than that. Western observers, remember, have only seen low-level effects of Russian attacks at first hand. But the real effects Russia is achieving are at the operational level, which is something NATO has never been good at, and requires not only the ability to look across the entire battlefield in something like real time, but also to understand what you are seeing.

        This is why I would urge everyone to read the Black Mountain Analysis piece, because it touches on precisely this point. NATO now has no capacity to plan and conduct operational level warfare, even if it could magically overcome the drone problem. I don’t think the Ukrainians have either. The have a strategic plan (hold on, and hope for a miracle) and a whole series of tactical plans and operations all over the place, usually counter-attacks. But the operational level, the glue that holds everything together, just seems to be missing, and it’s clear that NATO cannot provide it either.

      2. Jeremy Grimm

        I have some limited knowledge of how acquisition worked in the U.S. Army. The U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) created tactical and some strategic doctrine until quite recently according to sources I spotted when looking up the translation for the TRADOC acronym. TRADOC was shutdown and merged with the Army Futures Command to form the Army Transformation and Training Command (T2COM). This happened in 2024 long after I had retired from my job as a low-level contractor supporting the MIC. I never heard about the Army Futures Command and know nothing about it. As I recall both TRADOC and the Army’s War College wrote After Action Reports to deduce lessons learned from recently concluded engagements. In theory those lessons learned were incorporated in TRADOC’s updates to Army Doctrine as presented in TRADOC publications and training manuals. However, I believe there was a strong coupling between doctrine and the political forces shaping the “what and how-many” of Army weapons procurements. Every few years as politicians and generals shifted, as the MIC added, consolidated, or invented new corporate entities and power shifted between them, TRADOC would crank out new doctrine and a new drop of documents and training manuals. Changes in doctrine implied changes in Army force structures, and the systems they fielded, derived requirements for new equipment systems, modifications or consolidations of existing systems, new vehicles and platforms, even new Army commands. Needless to say the lessons learned were warped to fit the agendas of all the politicians, generals, and MIC corporations.

        At a higher level, I believe RAND Corporation was an important think tank, if not the most important think tank crafting larger more strategic initiatives that shaped the larger procurement programs like Star Wars or the Army Future Combat Systems program. The best and most accessible source of information on how things worked at this larger scale is probably Daniel Ellsberg, his books, and interviews with Paul Jay.

      3. Jeremy Grimm

        I suppose “The Calculus of Conflict…” is pertinent to this sub-thread. I sincerely hope someone somewhere in T2COM and or the War College or their equivalents in commands in the other services or in the Joint Command are making close and careful study of Russian doctrine. I believe the analysis in “Calculus of Conflict…” makes an excellent start at making clear just how important and how novel and shattering the Russian doctrine demonstrated in the Ukraine truly is. It is time for new volumes to accompany the writings of Sun Tzu and Clausewitz.

        1. Polar Socialist

          It may be worth pointing out that as popular as von Clausewitz has been in the West since WW2 – and to some extent already after WW1, in Russia he has never been studied much.

          Russian do have an indigenous school of military though starting from Pyotr Saltykov, who in the Third Silesian War (1756-63) multiple times beat Frederik the Great and his prussian school. He came up with the concept or the correlation of forces and means.

          His ideas were improved first by Rumyantsev, then by his pupils Suvorov and Kutuzov, who in turn taught Bagration, Miloradovitch, Milyutin and Dragomirov. Next generation was Skobelev and Brusilov, followed by Gutor and Kostyayev, who taught Frunze, Svechin and Tuhachevsky.

          Now we are in the 1920, and it’s the generation of Varfolomeev, Triandafillov and Isserson. This is the only generation that actually did read von Clausewitz, and mostly because his idea of war fitted within the concept of class war. Lenin did quote von Clausewitz for the same reason, and also because at the time he was actually know in Russia.

          And then we’re already into Zhukov, Timoshenko, Sokolovsky and Valeri Gerasimov, the current chief of staff and a renowned military thinker (even Zalushny respects him!).

          Antoine-Henry Jomini, though, was rather important figure in Russia; he was responsible for the founding of the Russian General Staff Academy in 1832 (after 6 years of pushing hard for it). During the second part of the 19th century there was some back and forth between the Prussian school and Russian school of thinking, but that was basically over and Prussian school driven out before Moltke the Older’s comments made von Clausewitz popular the first time.

          Actually, one Belarusian historian claimed in 2013 that the initial Soviet defeats in 1941 happened merely because Soviet civil and military leadership had not studied von Clausewitz properly if at all. They preferred Jomini, who won battles fighting for Napoleon, to von Clausewitz, who lost battles fighting against Napoleon.

          1. hk

            In a way, both Clausewitz and Jomini were shaped by Russian way of thinking, rather than the other way around: it’s worth remembering both spent much of their lives in Russian service–in Clausewitz’s case, the crucial period when he crystalized his thinking, iirc–fighting against Napoleon.

          2. Jeremy Grimm

            Thank you for your review of Russian military thinkers. I am ignorant of all but Zhukov and my knowledge is limited to recognizing his name. Which one or two would you recommend as authors of works to add to writings of Sun Tzu and Clausewitz, and which works?

            2. Polar Socialist

              I don’t think there are any individual Russian authors writing on the same level as Sun Tsu or Clausewitz – and I mean the vantage point, not necessarily the quality.

              I do know that at least both Isserson (The Evolution of Operational Art, 1936) and Triandafillov (The Nature of the Operations of Modern Armies, 1936) have been translated to English by US Armed Forces and can be found in the internets.

              If you can read Russian, the militera.ru site offers almost everything ever published in Russian about specific wars, war in general and military thinking all the way to field manuals for sergeants or how to operate specific weapons.

              All and all, the Black Mountain article mentioned is a pretty decent introduction to Jaques Baud’s The Russian Art of War: How The West Led Ukraine To Defeat, which is rather good and understandable introduction to, well, the Russian art of war.

            3. Jeremy Grimm

              Thank you very much. I will search for Jaques Baud’s “The Russian Art of War” and for works by Alexander Svechin. The other sources sound beyond my grasp.

              Curious, the shaping strategy reminds me of the chess strategies for shaping your opponent’s pawn structure and carefully crafting the positions of your own pawns.

      4. jrkrideau

        the North Koreans

        I was sure that the early reports of Korean combat troops in Russia were Uranian propaganda. Observers sure but combat units? Russia did not need the troops and integrating a fairly large number of foreign troops with different training, different equipment,and likely no common language is not easy.

        Then I suddenly realized that the DPRK, a Russian ally, was the only country other than Russia and Ukraine which actually has experienced troops versed in the new methods of warfare.

        A rather smooth move by Russia and the DPRK.

    2. ilsm

      In USA’s haste to be ready for war; USAF is paying for and accepting delivery of F-35A with lead weights in the nose where fire control radar should be.

      Building another super carrier that has to stay away from shore!

      It is all about shuttering (hanging) humanity (on an iron cross) for the war profits.

    3. Kontrary Kansan

      With the US drawing back, EU creatures–crazy with desperation–see beating the Russophobic drums promotes a common “enemy,” a good way to keep a fractious bunch together.

    4. Polar Socialist

      The NATO defeat was not as much about clever Ukrainian drone crews (which I believe they are!), but NATO troops moving and sheltering out in the open en masse, not distributed and camouflaged as they should.

      I’ve heard a lot of stories, some of them officially confirmed, that when American or British troops come to Norway or Finland for arctic training, they time after time get (virtually) wiped out by the team yellow artillery. The very idea of “if you’re seen, you will be fired upon” seems to be too evasive after years of fighting where your side has tremendous firepower advantage.

      You know, it’s really cold and it’s really dark, so you make a little fire – and three minutes later a referee appears and tells that your company doesn’t exist anymore (as few dozen 155mm shells just landed on your position) in the war game, so you might as well make a bigger fire, get warm and eat something while the directors figure out how and where you will be resurrected. Your main comfort is that the reservists who “annihilated” you will be moved further away and told to take it easier on the next round.

  4. Ben Panga

    Re: Munich conference.

    I read this bit in the Guardian’s live blog earlier and it made me laugh

    Rubio gets big applause and a standing ovation from a large part of the audience.

    What a contrast with JD Vance’s speech last year – even as he delivered some similar lines of criticism on deindustrialisation, green policies or mass migration, but phrased in a much more caring way, stressing what unites the US and Europe – and not what divides them.

    These people are facile idiots.

    Rubio said a bunch of “we really care about you” stuff, and like gullible neglected lovers they lapped it up.

    Actions >>> Words; the US gov doesn’t give a damn about Europeans and is actively trying to unseat and destroy these particular European elites.

    —-

    Rubio’s speech (transcript, Foreign Policy)

    https://archive.ph/WE9f0

    1. chris

      Is that the one that preceded Zelenskyy telling the world he wants to see a 20 year security guarantee commitment from the US? At least, that’s what the Guardian is reporting. On account of, the Russians haven’t made enough concessions during this “peace process”.

      I understand that the English will not like abusing a Monty Python reference in this context, but NATO and the allies as the Black Knight seems to be the most appropriate analogy.

        1. The Rev Kev

          I heard that he was pleading with the US to bomb his country but he assured people a coupla days ago that he did not want to be Iran’s Shah but only its leader. What a creep and now I wonder if he was in the Epstein files too.

  5. Trees&Trunks

    Mönchen Security Conference and regurgitation.

    This was published just minutes ago in Sweden. Do they think we will go to war brcause of the Navalny cadaver?

    Foreign Minister: Navalny was poisoned by Russia
    Published 14 Feb 2026 at 1:56 PM
    Sweden and four countries now have evidence that Alexei Navalny was poisoned by Russia, and with what poison.

    – It can only be Russia that could have administered this, since he was in Russian captivity, says Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard (M).

    https://www-expressen-se.translate.goog/nyheter/varlden/utrikesministern-navalnyj-forgiftades-av-ryssland/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

      1. The Rev Kev

        Pretty sure that Sun reporter got that idea from watching that 2006 film “Apocalypto”-

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kf8ArHm9_Vg (2:45 mins)

        Heard that “The Telegraph” reported that Russia was so short of men that they were sending in those that had lost limbs and did not even have prosthetics. The British media is just pure Clown World.

    2. Darthbobber

      Mighty long post-mortem that was, eh? Nearly 2 years?
      And nobody covering it is asking to see the alleged evidence, or even pointing out that literally none is being provided

      1. Irrational

        Indeed. I was wondering why this news came out just now, it took them that long to figure it out or it was just opportune … hmm!

        1. albrt

          Re: timing and journalism:

          “We were somewhere around Barstow on the edge of the desert when the drugs began to take hold.”

  6. The Rev Kev

    “Conflicts of interest”

    Sounds like that Starmer does not really want a professional, experienced Cabinet Secretary but a rubber stamp instead. At this point you wonder if Sir Humphrey Appleby might be induced to come out of retirement and put Starmer’s Cabinet in order.

  7. Henry Moon Pie

    First antidote–

    Cute. Note to poster Buitengebieden: pretty sure that’s a steer, not a cow.

  8. The Rev Kev

    ‘Buitengebieden
    @buitengebieden
    Front porch cow.. 😅’

    Reminds me of an image on the net that I saw and downloaded. It was of a deer, a cat and a dog resting on steps too. The guy that took that image had just returned home and noted ‘Came home to this today. I only own the dog’ –

    https://www.instagram.com/p/DUTAVp6CT7f/

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Is it just me, or did Taibbi get the message that he was destroying all the credibility he had earned over decades and has taken measures to correct it? There were several times he mentioned new hires in recent years who then never posted anything. It was just Walter Kirn rambling on twice a week and little investigative reporting for quite a while. Looks like the reporting is making a comeback, other people are posting their own pieces, and Kirn has been sidelined.

    2. Ben Panga

      I’m not sure the spying on Americans bit is contributing to Keir’s ongoing self-immolation. It doesn’t seem to have made the press in the UK unless I missed it.

      There are far more salient (from a Brit’s point of view) Keir is on the way out. I don’t think anyone would care about spying on Americans. Migrants, the hopeless economy, authoritarianism and, the Epstein mess on the other hand…

  10. Tom Stone

    The Trump administration flooded the zone for a year with extreme aggression and they have done permanent and severe harm both to the USA and the World.
    That flood is receding just as Trump’s capacity has begun to visibly decline, revealing a lot of very nasty things stuck in the mud.
    It will be one heck of a year as the economy unravels,more Epstein revelations come to light and the full on assault on the Rule of Law meets stiffening opposition from both Judges and those @ 3,000 career prosecutors purged from the DOJ make their presence known.
    Stay safe and enjoy the show, it’s gonna be lit with a flamethrower.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Salzman has been pretty good with the financial reporting, but both he and Epstein got the fractional reserve thingy wrong. I noted above that Taibbi’s site seems to be on the mend. Maybe one of these days he’ll be convinced to look into MMT.

  12. upstater

    President Donald Trump has nominated for director of the National Park Service an executive from a hospitality company that holds extensive contracts with the agency he would lead. syracuse.com

    The nomination of Scott Socha late Wednesday follows widespread firings within the Park Service as part of efforts by Trump’s Republican administration to sharply reduce its size. The administration also has

    Socha is a president for parks and resorts at Delaware North, which describes itself as one of the world’s largest privately owned hospitality and entertainment companies, with more than $4 billion in revenue in 2022. The company provides hospitality services in at least six national parks, including Grand Canyon, Yellowstone and Shenandoah
    …
    However, the parks already lost almost a quarter of their employees, or more than 4,000 positions, due to firings and other changes since Trump took office

    Stealth privatization.

    Kathy Hochul’s husband is/was? General Counsel for Delaware North.

    1. Carolinian

      Grim news. Of course it was Clinton’s Bruce Babbitt who said the parks should be like Disney.

      Trump is already messing with the parks via his new foreign admission fee and the staff reductions. No word yet on extra triumphal arches or excuses to name features after himself. So many ego trips, so little time.

    2. Wukchumni

      Delaware North are the clowns who copywrited all sorts of epic Yosemite names and then held them ransom, lest the NPS ever want to see them again.

      In their defense, they would have accepted payment via normal means, not via Bitcoin.

      Joy, joy.

  14. ISL

    THe economist and “Are fears of Sino-American financial warfare finally coming true?” is diversionary – have they not noticed there is a trade war – another name for financial war? Or do they consider anything less than nuclear war not real war (as in Gaza)?

    And why can a policy not be for multiple reasons and goals?

    The Economist also claims a weaker dollar will shift trade balances (reindustrialize?). No sign yet (data says the opposite). One example – I buy inclinometers from China now $140 ($40 is tariffs) – still cheaper and better than the US variant ($4000). So, a 95% devaluation would be needed (but US tech support sucks and Chinese is really good), so maybe 98% devaluation needed? But I think then my company would be bankrupt, and I would revert to growing veggies full-time for barter.

    Clearly, the Economist is scared of the effect of reality on Mr. Market. They should be, as without a response from Mr. Market, the financial war will continue (as with all wars) with economic damage, but one side actually makes stuff.

  15. Henry Moon Pie

    Re: the slow rise then has now become fast–

    Are we Venus-bound?

    It’s more than possible that the billionaires and their Sand Monsters will destroy each other and us before things get to that point. Hell, we could do it the old-fashioned way once the Ford joins Trump’s Armada. But things are changing faster now on the planetary front.

    People have long talked about tipping points like losing the albedo (reflection) effect when the northern ice cap is gone or when permafrost melts and releases methane, but there are less talked-about tipping points like the heating of the world’s swamps, a tipping point hit around 1.5 C, that also release methane. We’re cruisin’ for a bruisin’, but the geopoltical, national political and economic worlds are falling apart so fast, the idea of addressing a problem that’s even as overripe seems impossible given the triage situation.

    Gaia needs to shut this down.

    1. ArvidMartensen

      What we are seeing atm are bubbles of extreme heat breaking out all over the globe. But they eventually dissipate and “normal” weather resumes. We had a couple of 42 degree days here recently and it wasn’t pleasant. I don’t know how people exposed to 50 degrees for days on end survive without aircon. I suppose you become acclimatised to a point.

      What worries me is that these bubbles are going to keep expanding until the whole globe is continuously subject to extreme heat and there is no respite from moving weather systems.

      I imagine that might take a while as the ice melts enough in the Arctic and Antarctica to go over the point of no return.

      Our “civilised” systems rely on the climate that is fast disappearing. As more energy is taken into the oceans, land and air, the violence of weather systems must increase. What will they do about maritime trade when there are random waves generated which are massive and fast moving due to ocean energy increasing. Ditto air trade with increases in tornadoes, updraft, downdrafts etc.

      At a minimum, food processed and imported from other locations, and parts to repair failing machinery (water purification, water pumps, sewage pumps, aircon, transport) are crucial to the ongoing survival of our cities and towns.

      Is the future one of failing crops in one locality with little chance of successfully importing food from other regions. Food and water shortages, plus life ending heat and humidity, don’t sound like much of a future. I cry for my grandchildren.

  16. The Rev Kev

    “Trump’s Religious Liberties Commission Implodes Over Zionism”

    This article sounds more like a hatchet job on Carrie Prejean Boller rather than saying what happened and I note that it was found necessary to say that she was a former Miss California twice for some reason. Going by memory as I cannot find the article that I read about this, she took issue as a Catholic that being against Zionism is automatically being antisemitic. When a Rabbi said that it was so, she asked were all good Catholics antisemitic then. It all went downhill from there but of course Trump sided with the Zionists and dumped her.

    1. Socal Rhino

      I was going to say the same. She has since been supported by a Catholic theologian who, to my knowledge, is not a former pageant winner, and multiple Catholic groups. This has been blowing up on X.

    2. Ben Panga

      Re: antisemitism

      Which nation has killed the most semites recently?

      One could argue that Zionists are the true antisemites.

  17. Es s Ce Tera

    re: Iran

    Putting this out there apropos of nothing. We’ve all been puzzling over what the US and Israel think they’re doing, what they can possibly achieve using F35’s, B3’s, B52’s and Tomohawks, how futile it seems with the limited ranges of the F35’s and missiles in play, and in fact it’s interesting how the alternative media has all been saying the same things, it’s impossible, but does anyone actually know if the carriers are loaded out with F35’s?

    What is the possibility the plan is use the same methods against Iran, drone swarming, which Iran used to penetrate Israel’s defenses in the 11-day war? What are the ranges of Israeli and US drones?

    1. ilsm

      Iran is a big country, diverse topography and valuable targets are dispersed, sheltered and in some case decoys.

      US lost every war since 1945 using massive air power, shock and awe and boots on the ground!

      So far no boots because Iran is too big, and Iran allies would be instant infiltration of line of communication, that is if they don’t all go after IDF!

      Another carrier, Ford who cannot launch F-35C, to stay safe, far from Iranian response, making only the tomahawks on the destroyers somewhat news worthy, nothing about effect!

      They are not rounding up camels for Delta Force to ride into Tehran!

      1. Carolinian

        Larry Johnson says the carriers can launch and attack with their airplanes but they would have to be refueled in the air to get to Tehran and perhaps refueled over Iran. The Iranians may now have the ability to shoot down tankers.

        If the carrier is off the Iranian coast then close enough but vulnerable to being sunk.

        The complications are making all that “power projection” look rather dubious.

      2. Es s Ce Tera

        Itt isn’t about winning a war, in this case it’s purely about revenge and subjugation, for slights real or imagined but mostly imagined.

      3. GF

        I was wondering if any of the US carrier groups’ missiles are fitted with n.. warheads? Is anyone aware if this is the case?

    2. NN Cassandra

      West doesn’t have this type of low cost long range kamikaze drones, and certainly isn’t able to produce them in the numbers required. So I would say probability of such scenario equals the probability of US having somewhere secret factory cranking up thousands of Gerans/Shaheds copycats per month while keeping it all out of public knowledge.

      1. Es s Ce Tera

        The US might not, but the Israelis might. After all, they taught the Ukrainians drone warfare. They have the Harop with considerable range, they specialize in producing drones to stay on station for 30+ hours, but could also have recently developed a new variant specifically for this operation.

        The problem then is how to get them aboard the carriers without anyone noticing, and how to deploy with a crew which isn’t trained on unpacking, assembling, and launching them. The first is easy to solve, load them from Diego Garcia with a specialized crew.

        And they’ll probably need to keep a few F35’s on deck for show, since the Russians and Chinese probably have dedicated satellites tracking the carriers, will know something is up if the deck was sans planes, or with reduced complement of planes. So they may even need cloud cover to park the planes below and launch the drones.

        And recall the Ukrainians used containers to launch, the Chinese likewise have been experiementing with containerized launch tubes on freighters. So one possibility is laying out a whole bunch of drones on deck, or to haul containers onto the deck.

        And if they’re haulting containers on deck, then given the US has already somewhat containerized VLS, what’s to stop them from laying out a bunch of VLS containers to supplement the VLS launchers of the cruisers and destroyers?

        Regardless, the carriers are outdated, useless in most theatres unless the US figures out how to repurpose them, and this might be how. With American high seas piracy there’s obviously some rethinkng going on upstairs at the pentagon. And carriers approaching Iran don’t make any sense at all, so either it’s for show or something else is planned than what we typically expect from them.

  18. Jeremy Grimm

    I watched the video of advice for dealing with ICE and presumably for dealing with regular police. I had the impression that neither ICE nor the police are bound by the u.s. laws and Constitution. They do whatever they feel like and seldom get so much as a reprimand. While the attorney’s advice is legally ‘nice’ in case any encounter should end up in court, and it is advice I would follow, I believe the ICE or the police can and would just do whatever they want regardless. I expect they would search me and any passengers by force, confiscate any cameras, phones, money, anything of value they find and lie in court.

    If I had to rely on a public defender, I fear that public defender would work with the prosecutor to attempt to get me to accept a plea bargain. I am very afraid this is what justice has come to in the u.s.

    1. Tom Stone

      Mr Grimm, there’s a reason it’s called the CRIMINAL Justice system.
      Your take is correct when it comes to ICE, however it is not always that bad at a State or local level.
      Not always.

  19. LawnDart

    Re; AI

    “The gap between today’s AI systems and true intelligence is not about how much knowledge they possess, but about their ability to learn. An AI stuffed with knowledge but incapable of learning is like someone who has memorized an entire dictionary yet cannot write. It may look knowledgeable, but it is fundamentally rigid.”
    …
    The problem exposed by CL-bench is not just technical—it is paradigmatic.

    We have optimized AI for reasoning over the known, but real-world tasks demand adaptation to the unknown.

    Without learning ability, AI—no matter how powerful—remains an advanced query system.

    With true learning ability, it can evolve from a tool into an agent.

    CL-bench suggests that the future of AI lies not in larger models or more parameters, but in stronger learning mechanisms.

    https://thechinaacademy.org/chinese-scientists-500-task-test-exposes-ais-human-gap/

    1. ChrisFromGA

      I’m wondering if there is going to be a reckoning when people realize they’ve been sold another bill of goods by Silicon Valley marketing drones. Will they get angry?

      It seems unlikely, as the downside of AI turning out to be lame seems to be less than all the hyperventilating proclamations of Musk, Altman, and others turning out to be true.

      Maybe we will have mobs of ravaging angry venture capitalists, burning down five star restaurants?

      1. cfraenkel

        Who’s ‘people’? The real question is what happens when the real owners of the VC funds realize they’ve been robbed by the VC ‘geniuses’ shovelling all of their family’s capital into the AI dumpster fire. It’s been fun all the way up, but the fall off the cliff is going to hurt.

    2. ilsm

      Last night we talked about Microsoft’s chief of AI predicting AI would eliminate white color jobs in 18 months.

      This is panic mode the big 7 are in as much trouble with AI capex excesses as OpenAI!

      So I used a bit of search and found an article from 12 Feb 2026 where SoftBank claimed profits from its stakes in OpenAI increase in analysts value.

      It is making Ed Zitron look like an AI optimist.

      I wonder which comes first shutting Hormuz or the AI crash.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        I like how this clown has the courtesy to offer up his own expiration date.

        August 2027 isn’t that far away. Bookmark that prediction. If there are still lawyers, accountants, and programmers in the wild of corporate Amerika, we can have a good roast.

    3. XXYY

      A good chunk of the criticism of AI is totally vacuous, since along with everybody else, the critic has no idea of how LLMs work.

      Terms like knowledge, reasoning, and learning apply to human beings but make absolutely no sense for a mindless entity that is just cutting and pasting material it has appropriated elsewhere according to a simple probabilistic algorithm. (It’s also worth pointing out that unless and until human beings get to the point of understanding how the human brain works, there is literally no chance of building things that do what the human brain does. No matter how much we would like to say we are doing it so that some number will go up.)

      I very much support the goal of discrediting AI both for technical and financial reasons, but let’s base our criticism on reality.

      1. ArvidMartensen

        The problem is that it mimics knowledge, reasoning and learning so successfully that people without much technical knowledge fall for all the hype and PR. And they worry about the point of singularity etc.

        Synthesis of knowledge into new insights and modes of action to deal with problems is what humans are good at. Since LLMs don’t do that, and since we are dumbing down our population mentally and emotionally, does this mean that relying on LLMs will pave the way to extinction for the human race?

        There are articles coming out now about how this is affecting young minds who haven’t alternative ideas as to how the world works. Apparently some are becoming reliant, not wanting to waste their time learning to read in some instances, instead just asking AI. And more concerningly, thinking that makes them smarter than their silly parents who still read.

        People who can successfully mimic emotions they don’t feel or value (love, altruism, cooperation) have risen to positions of power in the world. Software that mimics knowledge and wisdom is the natural outcome of their leadership.

        But I bet they send their own children go to schools where reading and writing and critical thinking are drummed into them so they can take over when their parents hand over the reins (if they ever do).

  20. Victor Sciamarelli

    It might help, now and then, to include tidbits about Iran so that it doesn’t sound like a wild and crazy country ruled by lunatics that the msm wants us to fear-enrichment, missiles, and kill protesters-and think it must be destroyed.
    For example, it might come as a surprise for some people that Iran has a highly educated population and university enrollment significantly exceeds the global average.
    Moreover, a majority of Iran’s university students are women and Iran has a remarkably high number of women in engineering and STEM fields. Approximately 70% of Iran’s university graduates in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) are women, and which exceeds the level in the US.
    Moreover, before 1935 the country was known as Persia and in their history they fought battles with Alexander the Great. They have been around awhile.

    1. ArvidMartensen

      I think she was always a grifter, in the tradition of all other grifters who have risen to the top by saying whatever it takes to fool people

      1. Judith

        AOC must have Bernie’s mailing list. For the past few weeks I have received email from her every day. It is like a little kid who keeps bugging her parent after being told NO.
        (I have never supported her or communicated with her in any way)

  22. 4paul

    “If ICE Pulls You Over, Say These 4 Words Immediately (LAWYER Explains) YouTube”

    oh yeah that guy! this is a new video from him …

    contradicts one of my favorites, can’t find now of course … What do you say to Police? SHUT THE F UP … turns out there are a lot of those now LOL

    this guy says our country has been so crapified that merely not answering questions can be used by police/government, so we need to say “I plead the Fifth” and “I do not consent to search” … in response to every single stupid thing they say???

    previous advice was to ask “am I being detained”, but that was later considered confrontational, and leaving before the cop says the words “you’re free to go” can be considered Flight.

    it’s all a no win situation, the plan is coming together … gah.

  23. Lee

    More on the madness of Musk: It’s Elon Musk’s World. We’re Just Living In It. KQED Forum (1 hr audio)

    Elon Musk’s merger of SpaceX with his AI start-up xAI has created what the New York Times calls “the most valuable private company on earth,” allowing Musk to forge ahead with new plans to develop data centers in outer space and an IPO expected later this year. Musk’s companies hold billions in government contracts as his own net worth tops $800 billion, and his decisions affect not just his shareholders but global communications, national security and international politics. We talk about how so much power has aggregated in one person and the perils for the rest of us.

    Guests:

    Ryan Mac, tech reporter, The New York Times; co-author, “Character Limit: How Elon Musk Destroyed Twitter”

    Nitasha TIku, tech culture reporter

  24. Jason Boxman

    On Secular Shifts In Employment

    COVID, is that you? The rise in healthcare jobs accelerated very clearly after 2020, only increasing very modestly from the initial 2009 impulse of nearly an entire percentage point. My guess is the drop in 2022 or thereabouts is related to healthcare workers, as IM Doc had reported, refusing the shots and leaving the profession entirely. We’re back over the 2020 initial COVID wave peak of healthcare jobs, again.

    1. longhaul7

      Jason, I had 2 of my primary care physicians leave their practices due to burn out in 2022 – they were not concerned about shots (as we discussed) – they were simply overwhelmed by workload

  25. Jason Boxman

    The WolfStreet take on the latest inflation report

    Services Inflation Spikes in January, but Bad-Joke OER CPI Pushes Down on Year-over-Year CPI. OER is Huge and Bad

    The Consumer Price index for core services jumped in January by the most in a year, seasonally adjusted. Core services dominate the Consumer Price Index and include many of the essentials that consumers cannot do without, such as housing, healthcare, and insurance.

    But gasoline prices plunged, used vehicle prices plunged, new vehicle prices barely inched up, and food prices, after the surge in the prior month, ticked up modestly.

    So the all-items CPI rose month-to-month by a benign looking 0.17% (+2.1% annualized) in January. But the core CPI (CPI without food and energy) rose by 0.30% (+3.6% annualized) and the core services CPI was hot.

    Core services CPI jumped by 0.39% (+4.8% annualized) in January from December, the worst reading in a year (blue line in the chart). It accounts for two-thirds of the CPI basket of goods and services, and that’s where inflation ran hot.

    Year-over-year, the services CPI rose by 3.0% (red). It continues to be pushed down by the CPI for Owners’ Equivalent of Rent (OER), which had been doctored for the September-November period. OER is the biggest component of the CPI basket, weighing 26.2% in overall CPI and over 40% in the core services CPI, and it moves the needle. I discussed these scandalously doctored months here.

    The bad adjustment to OER continues to haunt.

    1. ArvidMartensen

      The CPI has been a con all over the world for decades. It is how they have been able to hide inflation in things ordinary people rely on (food, housing) while making sure wages stay low.

      If the price of steak skyrockets, just substitute mince in the CPI calculations and inflation stays low. And don’t count asset appreciation.

    3. Ted

      What about the breathtaking increase in the cost of insurance? In urban Seattle people are choking on a doubling of car insurance. Pemco won’t do annual renewals anymore, 6 months so they can “align with risk”. So now we see more going illegally uninsured, leading to higher premiums, leading to…

  26. Tom Stone

    The Epstein revelations are making it hard for conservatives to continue supporting Trump’s agenda, they come fro a position of assumed moral superiority and it’s difficult to do that while defending the rapists of Children.
    And as Flora mentioned it is a LOT safer in America to go after these abusers than it is to criticize genocide.
    Trump is also fading fast, it is only a matter of time ( and IMO not much time) before he goes “Full Biden” live on TV.
    That’s going to be spectacular.
    In the meantime Trump’s odds of successfully invoking the insurrection Act are declining as trust in his Administration dissolves, even the Supreme Court must be having second thoughts about their support for his power grab..

  27. Jason Boxman

    From Democrats’ tariff gambit sparks new headaches for Mike Johnson

    “gambit” says it all. That’s Democrat Party governing.

    Reveals the perversity of the United States House of Representatives, where you can keep voting until you vote correctly.

    [Don Bacon (R-Neb.)], who is not running for reelection and therefore does not need to fear a primary challenge, immediately left the House floor after voting down the ban on snap votes, resisting attempts to try to sway him.

    Someone should have told Obama

    Meeks said the Canada vote taught him a lot about reaching to members and finding out what is important in their districts — and encouraged members to find courage to stand up against Trump on the tariffs.

    “Anytime you have someone to stand up to him on a continuous basis, he backs down. So that’s what has to happen. Don’t be afraid of the bully,”[Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.)] said. “If you stand up and push back, you’re going to be OK, and the bully will change. And that’s been proven over and over again.”

    I gotta tell you, the Democrat Party, has the driest powder of any powders that there ever were or will be. Keeping it Dry since Bill Clinton, who himself was definitely not keeping something dry, that’s for sure.

    1. The Rev Kev

      I was reading similar over a decade ago. How the US government was giving the big banks tens of billions of dollars for free because reasons.

  31. Cat Burglar

    The antidote with the cow on the porch was great. My late ex-Marine, cowboy, ex-bull-rider, ex–ski instructor landlord had a bull that used to camp out on his front porch in just the same way.

    My friend had gone to the sale one day and found a huge part-Brahma bull that was very gentle, which was good because his kids were still small. Their yard wasn’t fenced off from the surrounding pasture (they had a gate on the road) ,so the bull would be around. Every time he went out the door, he or his kids would give the bull a treat. The bull looked forward to that, so whenever he saw one of them, he would come over to say hello, and soon he was a regular on the front porch.

    It was about this time that a process server showed up to serve my friend (he was named in a lawsuit by Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh to harrass him for his political organizing against The Guru). The guy parks out on the road, lets himself through the gate, and starts walking down the driveway. Then the bull sees him, and walks sprightly up (as sprightly as you can when you weigh a ton) to say hello! That ended the problem with the process server.

  32. XXYY

    Yet another reason to wear a mask in public. (Yves)

    I have had this thought ever since COVID came on the scene. There is terrific synergy between wearing an N95 mask to guard against various pathogens and airborne particles, and wearing some kind of face covering to foil facial recognition. Both of these are very virtuous goals, and this effectively dual mission provides a lot of deniability to the wearer depending on what the environment is, both from friends who will tend to criticize you for wearing a mask, and from authorities who proclaim that face coverings are illegal.

    I have not seen any studies of whether n95 masks are effective at foiling facial recognition. Naively, one would think they would be very effective since most of the face below the eye level is covered. But I’m definitely not an expert on this. I have seen people with stickers and decorative markings on their n95s, presumably just for fun, but we could imagine more intentionality behind this if desired.

    I am always thrilled when something provides a “twofer.” For example, single payer healthcare provides much better healthcare and also saves a ton of money. These kinds of things are all around us if we look carefully.

    1. Jason Boxman

      I know Lambert had once mentioned that it’s sunglasses and covering eyes that break recognition. It’s not respirators. And so the “mask” bans because public safety and crime are doubly stupid.

  35. Lefty Godot

    The article about Pope Leo XIV moving the Catholic church to the left surprised me, as nothing I had seen about him in mainstream news sites (Reuters, AP, etc.) had given me the impression that he had any particular political leanings. So I assumed he was more or less an establishment placeholder, there to smooth over any feathers that Pope Francis may have ruffled. But thinking about it some more, it’s interesting how little coverage of the American pope there has been in the American media, after the first flurry when he was elected. Sure, maybe Francis was more charismatic while this fellow gives off “gray bureaucrat” vibes, but if he is making any statements with political implications, he’s not getting a lot of airplay.

    1. JBird4049

      >>>But thinking about it some more, it’s interesting how little coverage of the American pope there has been in the American media, after the first flurry when he was elected.

      If Pope Leo XIV is moving the Catholic Church at all towards the ideas in Latin Americas’ Liberation theology and away from the American Prosperity Gospel, it is not at surprising that he is under censorship.

  37. Jason Boxman

    U.S. military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations: Reuters

    The U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters, in what could become a far more serious conflict than previously seen between the countries.

    The disclosure by the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the planning, raises the stakes for the diplomacy underway between the United States and Iran.

    This is gonna be lit. They’re aware that they’re stupid

    Experts say the risks to U.S. forces would be far greater in such an operation against Iran, which boasts a formidable arsenal of missiles. Retaliatory Iranian strikes also increase the risk of a regional conflict.

    The same official said the United States fully expected Iran to retaliate, leading to back-and-forth strikes and reprisals over a period of time.

    1. Lefty Godot

      Having that “most lethal fighting force in the world” as both parties proudly assure us, I’m sure they’ve got the campaign all planned out. But as Iron Mike said, “Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth.”

  38. Tom Stone

    A short victorious War against Iran is virtually guaranteed!
    Virtually…however once you get past the virtual you encounter reality.
    Which can harsh your mellow.

  39. Acacia

    Re: Seedance, Kling and the Chinese AI Video Ecosystem China Talk

    Critical take on CCP AI policy. Regarding the final take, i.e.:

    After spending too much time on Chinese social media “researching” this article, I’ve come away thinking that AI video is seen in a more optimistic light overall than the doomerish perspective you’ll find pervading many of the comments on Western platforms.

    Yet the sinofuturistic images that are offered as examples of this “more optimistic” vision of the world to come… well… there is more than a whiff of cyber-kitsch here.

  40. ChrisRUEcon

    I hope McFarlane is right about Russia sending oil to Cuba, but no way in Hades do I see the current WH guaranteeing free passage. So we are getting Missile Crisis II in a way. I said it before, only half jokingly – Oreshniks in the Orinoco will be a thing in the not too distant future if the US continues on its ill-advised FAFO path.

Comments are closed.