Five Reasons Why the US Declined To Enforce Its De Facto Blockade on Cuba for Russia

Yves here. One has to add to the list of ideas why the US allowed a Russian tanker to arrive in Cuba is limited means. The US military is already seriously overextended. And it’s not as if Russia can or is planning to send in enough fuel to do more than extend the timetable of Cuba’s energy strangulation. So either Trump was distracted or Rubio signed off on non-intervention out of the view that this Russian gesture would not change outcomes.

By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website

Trump handed Putin a soft power victory that earned him thunderous applause from the World Majority.

Trump declined to enforce the US’ de facto blockade on Cuba for a Russian oil tanker that was carrying enough fuel to meet the island’s needs for approximately one week. In his words, “We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they have to survive. If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem. I prefer letting it in, whether it’s Russia or anybody else, because the people need heat and cooling and all of the other things that you need.” There are five reasons for this:

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1. Avert Potential Escalation With Russia

The oil tanker that just arrived in Russia is an actual Russian tanker, not another country’s that suddenly decided to fly the Russian flag when the West placed pressure upon it like members of its so-called “shadow fleet” have done in recent months before being seized. Trump might have therefore calculated that Putin could potentially escalate tensions if he authorized its seizure, which would inconvenience the US while it’s embroiled in the Third Gulf War, ergo one of the likely reasons why he let it pass.

2. Please Putin To Keep Their Talks Going

Another reason might have been for this to be presented as a goodwill gesture for pleasing Putin in order to keep their stalled talks going amidst growing skepticism of Trump’s intentions among Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian experts. By giving Putin something that he can pass off as a soft power victory, one which also earns thunderous applause from the World Majority, Trump could be showing him that he actually has good intentions so he should dismiss speculation about his motives.

3. Prevent A Full-Blown Humanitarian Crisis

There’s no doubt that the US’ de facto blockade of Cuba has already led to a humanitarian crisis, but allowing a Russian tanker to provide the island with enough fuel for approximately one week might have been meant to prevent a full-blown humanitarian crisis that could have spilled over into Florida. This can be intuited from Trump’s earlier-cited words. Basically, the US might have decided to allow Cuba to import its minimum oil needs for this reason, which keeps the crisis manageable from its perspective.

4. Reward Or Incentivize The Government

Another reason why the US let Russia break its de facto blockade of Cuba could have been to reward the government for whatever concessions they might have made throughout their ongoing talks or possibly to incentivize such concessions if they weren’t already made. As was explained here, “‘Regime Tweaking’ In Cuba Is The Most Realistic Outcome Of Its US-Instigated Crisis”, which refers to political changes that retain the existing power structure. This goal might therefore be closer to fulfillment than many realize.

5. TACO (“Trump Always Chickens Out”)

It’s also possible that Trump “chickened out” after Putin called his supposed “bluff” over the de facto blockade of Cuba. To be sure, he doesn’t “always chicken out” since the US is bombing Iran right now despite the risk of blowback against its interests, but Russia could inflict even more damage to them than Iran could so perhaps he decided not to test Putin just to be on the safe side. Out of all the reasons why he let Russia break the blockade, this is the least convincing, but it’ll likely resonate with many.

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All in all, the US’ decision not to enforce its de facto blockade on Cuba for Russia helps alleviate its humanitarian crisis, but this selfsame crisis wouldn’t have occurred had it not been for the blockade. Trump also handed Putin a soft power victory that earned him thunderous applause from the World Majority at the US’ expense so there was definitely an intangible cost to this decision. Nevertheless, the US still controls the dynamics of Cuba’s humanitarian crisis, and it’ll only be alleviated at Trump’s mercy.