Before we get to kinetic war updates and related political developments, please go immediately to read and widely circulate Craig Tindale article, Systemic Risk: A 12-Order Cascading Analysis of a Zero-Flow Strait of Hormuz Closure. In all seriousness, having this analysis get the traction it deserves may be the best shot for getting the investor class out of its unduly complacent posture towards this conflict. As we said in the runup to the 2008 crisis, financial time moves faster than political time. Trump went TACO as a result of the post-Liberation Day market dive. Getting the moneyed to wake up to the severity of the downside risk of the continuation of this conflict ought to produce market action that could force Trump into a retreat.
Tindale’s analysis is credible and alarming. Our normally phlegmatic colleague Aurelien sent it to us with a note: “Makes your hair stand on end…”
We alerted readers yesterday to the potential impact of anything beyond a short Strait of Hormuz on fertilizer and agriculture in our Iran war update yesterday. Tisdale argues that vastly more critical sectors will also be severely harmed. The neoliberal creation of overly-efficient supply chains that depend on petroleum inputs (Nassim Nicholas Taleb has long warned that highly efficient systems are fragile) means a marked oil/gas crunch will both cascade much faster than expected and have destabilizing synergies.
Please send this article to those in relevant positions, particularly market commentators, money managers, business journalists, and politicians, such as Congressional representatives and their staffers.
The modern world order, having organized itself around efficiency, cost minimization, and logistical precision, has created a machinery of dependence so extreme that the interruption of one narrow corridor can propagate outward into a general crisis of civilization….
From this follows a chain whose logic is cumulative: fuel inflation becomes fertilizer inflation; fertilizer inflation becomes food inflation; food inflation becomes urban instability, sovereign subsidy exhaustion, and ultimately hunger. In this sequence, food shortages are not a secondary humanitarian issue. They are one of the central political outcomes of the crisis, because modern populations do not experience systemic breakdown first through grand strategy, but through unaffordable bread, intermittent power, empty pharmacies, and possibly the collapse of public order. A globalised Arab Spring.
In this framework, hyperinflation emerges as the social expression of real physical bottlenecks. When energy-importing states are forced to acquire dollarized fuel at any price, when currencies weaken, when fertilizer and transport costs reprice an entire harvest cycle, inflation ceases to be cyclical and becomes coercive.
It enters every household budget and every state ledger at once. The result is the destruction of planning itself: firms cannot quote, governments cannot subsidize, and populations can no longer calculate the future. Under such conditions, credit markets seize up, foreign-exchange reserves drain, sovereign spreads widen, and the boundary between economic crisis and political crisis disappears.
Modern technical systems amplify rather than dampen this disorder….
Thus, the closure of a maritime strait reaches, by entirely material means, into the server rack, the hospital network, the payment system, the electrical substation, and the defence-industrial base. The myth that digital civilization floats above heavy industry is, in this scenario, extinguished. Compute is shown to rest on copper, transformers, stable voltage, LNG, and ship…
The most immediate suffering falls on import-dependent and fiscally weak societies: blackouts, food insecurity, unemployment, debt default, regime stress, and mass unrest. Yet the advanced economies do not escape. They experience industrial contraction, infrastructure delays, AI and semiconductor bottlenecks, strategic stockpiling, and the permanent repricing of security over efficiency. What begins as a supply shock ends as a transformation of the political economy. States abandon the fiction of neutral markets and move toward command allocation, export controls, emergency powers, and militarized trade corridors. Market price gives way to strategic rationing. Globalization does not simply slow; it hardens into armed blocs.
The ultimate conclusion is grim : the terminal danger in this model is not one shortage, nor one recession, nor even one war-risk premium.
It is the transition from a globally integrated commercial order into a world system governed by scarcity, coercion, and administrative triage….
They are the normal operating features of a civilization that has discovered, too late, that its efficiency was built on concentrated fragility….
Such is the risk. The whole world will be compelled to support efforts to bring this situation under control immediately. China, the US, and Europe will have to work together.
The political cycle over the coming days and weeks is going to matter like never before.
Here are 10 likely and immediate crises
Polyester -> apparel…
Natural gas -> fertilizer -> food…
Sour crude / sulfur -> sulfuric acid -> copper…
Propylene -> polypropylene -> medical and packaging…
Salt + power -> chlorine / caustic soda -> water treatment…
Iron ore + metallurgical coal -> steel -> construction and machinery…
Bauxite + alumina + cheap power -> aluminum -> transport and packaging..
Soda ash + natural gas -> glass -> buildings, autos, solar….
High-purity gases and chemicals -> semiconductors -> electronics and autos
Mind you, not all of these devastating cascades propagate on the same time frame, as you will see from the body of Tisdale’s analysis. He identifies semiconductor supply chains, refining and industrial chemicals and mining and metals extraction as early to suffer body blows.
In theory, if Iran were to let Chinese and/or Russian ships through the Strait, that would blunt the systemic impacts of a closure. But all I have found are not-convincingly-sourced accounts that Iran will let Chinese vessels pass. For instance, from NDTV:
Iran has said it will allow only Chinese vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as an expression of gratitude for Beijing’s stand towards Tehran since the war in the Middle East began, sources have said. This is significant because the Strait, which provides the Persian Gulf ports access to the open sea, is a key chokepoint that Iran has blocked since the conflict in the region began, threatening global supply chains.
But if constraining China was part of this equation, it would then follow that the US would hunt China-bound tankers operating from the Persian Gulf. All it would take would be one attack or capture to blunt vessel-owner participation. And that is before getting to the question of how many ships serving the China trade are insured out of London. The risk-writers may either not trust Iran’s promise to let these tankers pass unmolested, or may be leaned on by Western governments not to give them a break on the pricing of war risk riders.
Notice the prominent play that Bloomberg gave to a new tanker incident. From its landing page as of 7:00 AM EST:
• An oil tanker suffered an explosion off the coast of Iraq, damaging a tank that is losing water.
• The Sonangol Namibe was approached by a small boat near Khor Al Zubair in Iraq and its crew later heard a loud bang, according to Sonangol Marine Services.
• The incident marks one of the farthest reaches where vessels have been targeted since the war in the Middle East began, expanding its reach deep into the Persian Gulf.
China’s government has told the country’s top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline as an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf disrupts the arrival of crude from one of the world’s largest producing regions.
While the country is only the third-largest supplier of oil products into the region — its vast refining sector primarily serves domestic demand — China’s curbs just six days into a war reflect a scramble across Asia to prioritize domestic needs as the crisis in the Middle East deepens.
Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner, called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments that would begin immediately, according to people familiar with the matter. They asked not to be named as the discussions are not public.
At a meeting earlier this week, refiners were told to stop signing new contracts and to negotiate the cancellation of already-agreed shipments, the people said. An exception was made for jet and bunker fuel held in bonded storage and supplies to Hong Kong and Macau, they added.
China Is Asia’s Third Biggest Fuel Exporter
Asian nation comes behind South Korea, Singapore
Source: Kpler Ltd.
So we are already seeing an example of how economic shocks from the Strait of Hormuz closure are starting to propagate. Notice in particular that South Korea is an important destination for Chinese fuel exports.
More sobering news on the supply front:
UAE joins Qatar and Saudi Arabia in halting its petroleum production. This is a catastrophe for the world.
That's 30% of total oil production, 17% of natural gas production.
Worse yet, all the product pipelines are closed. It will take 4 weeks to start back up.
In light of that bleak picture, the balance of our compilation of Iran war developments might seem to be in the “Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” category.
In case you have not seen it yet, Larry Wilkerson has a particularly informative discussion with Glenn Diesen:
Must-listen sections include 18:30, where Wilkerson points out that the deemed-essential level for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at about 412 million barrels, when 500 million is the supposed minimum “essential” level. He also says starting at 19:20 that he has it on good authority at 19:20 that Israel has been moving its nuclear weapons and may have uploaded some. He also has a more extended review at 45:45, keying off how Putin might react, how submarines are the most effective type of military weapon and how the Gulf is a great theater for their operations.
But to Wilkerson’s remarks on the headlined topic, of the possible US exploitation of the Kurds (again):
And that’s the first thing I would say about the nature of this conflict, which if you read your Clausewitz, you know the one thing you need to do anytime you’re contemplating using the military axis to turn policy into violence is you need to understand the nature of what you’re entering upon, the nature of the conflict. We do not. Every statement from Marco Rubio, every statement from Peter Hegseth, every statement from Donald Trump, indeed every statement out of the administration to include that bimbo who is the spokesperson for it, that blonde bimbo has indicated to me they do not understand the nature of this conflict. The leading factor of which is we’re taking on a people who are 3,000 years old, 90 million strong, 53% Persian, and who have lots of problems, but who will seal themselves into their very doom in order to give us a truly vicious headache. And that’s what they’re embarked on. And they’re not going to stop. They’re not going to cease until the last one of them is dead. I mean, we can route out all the Kurds we want to try and hire them to fight for us and others like that in the region. And therein lies another disconnect in our understanding of this conflict, the nature of it. The objective of Bibi Netanyahu, for whom we’re fighting this war, is chaos, not putting in tan a regime that would run a reasonably Quisling state or at least a state that got along with the United States and sold us the soil and everything else. He wants chaos, total chaos in the region just like he tried to get in Syria because it’s his plan and people behind him like Naftali Bennett and others to run rampant over the entire Levant from oh ready for this Erdogan from Turkey to Eastern Africa.
After an explanation of how the Iraqi Kurds have reached a modus vivendi with Turkiye and the oil majors and are thus not likely to mix things up in Iran, Wilkerson continues:
And then as far as the Kurds as they overlap in Iran and Syria, I think that’s the d most dangerous group right now because they haven’t gone through this process of learning such as it was that the Kurds in northern Iraq have. So they’re apt to try something just just because it’s arms and they’re free or whatever. But I don’t think they’ll be very successful because I think the Iranians have that sort of thing in mind.
One of the reasons they got the the uh helicopters from Russia, the latest shipment of major end item equipment from Russia was helicopters, attack helicopters. I think the reason they got those was just that they’re the best weapon to use against these border infiltrators, if you will, these armed people that are trying to overthrow the Iranian Republic and coming from places in the in the northern part of the Persian Gulf and on up into the Azerban and Armenia. They’re best killed with helicopters.
So, I think that’s what they got the helicopters for. They anticipated this and they say, “Okay, come on.” That plus SAS. They wanted to take on the British SAS with these helicopters, too, because it warfare has proven over the last decade or so. That’s the best way to use against irregular forces like that that are regular, you know, guerrillas that are actually working for a state. So I think the Iranians have thought this out. I really do. I think they’ve thought it out. No doubt there will be some surprises for them. But of all the contestants in this conflict, they’ve thought it out the longest and the best.
Predictably, the mainstream media is misinforming the public:
Now Fox News is reporting that IRAQI Kurds are launching a ground offensive into Iran.
This is not true, Kurdish Peshmerga from the autonomous Kurdistan Region in Iraq would not launch an offensive into Iran.
Iranian Kurds’ biggest concern : The #Kurds do not fear the Iranian regime itself and have fully prepared to free their land. Their real worry is the interference of #Turkey and #Erdogan, and they fear that, like their brothers in #Syria, they may ultimately be abandoned by the… pic.twitter.com/DLV69o8HCD
And even though there are roughly 10 million Kurds in Iran, as in enough to be able to pose a big problem were they to act in a concerted manner, the fact that the US threw them under the bus in Syria suggests uptake on the latest US offer is not likely to be great:
A month ago, when #Trump turned his back on the Syrian Kurds—the very people who sacrificed thousands of lives to destroy #ISIS —he told them: 'You’ve been paid; you didn't work for us for free!'
Readers have already been debating the US scheme to enlist the Kurds in comments. For example, from yesterday’s post:
elkern
I don’t doubt that we (US/CIA/Israel) would goad/pay Kurds to fight in Iran, but I find it hard to believe that it would be more than a side-show in the larger war. IRGC must have larger and more effective ground forces than anything the Kurds can put up, and any such conflict would be limited to the mountains of NW Iran. US/Israeli air power might be able to kill a bunch of IRGC there, but not enough to enable the Kurds to attack Teheran or other targets deeper into Iran.
OTOH, “chaos” would be considered a complete success by Israel, because it would end Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. (See: Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc).
And in reply:
Polar Socialist
IRGC must have larger and more effective ground forces than anything the Kurds can put up […]
It’s a bit complicated, but yeah, IRGC is about 150,000 strong, with around 600,000 Basij-militia volunteers available immediately (and some 24 million in reserves).
Meanwhile, Artesh, the actual Iranian army responsible for fighting invasion*, is a conscript army with a strength of some 500,000, half of which are conscripts** with an immediate stand-off reserve of about 750,000 men and a bigger second echelon reserve of about 5,000,000 men.
* as far as I understand, IRGC is more focused on internal security and foreign interventions, whereas Artesh is responsible for the national defense. So, IRGC special units would enter Iraq to fight the CIA-Kurds there, Artesh would meet the CIA-Kurds on the border and the Basij would secure the Iranian Kurdish regions. IRGC actually has a battalion of Kurds in it’s ranks, and it also does a lot of social work in the Kurdish regions.
** 18 months of service if one is positioned in an “insecure” region and gets fired at, 24 months otherwise. Meaning at least a fraction of Iranian conscripts and reservists have combat experience.
Now very briefly to the Israeli attack on Lebanon and resultant pounding by Hezbollah:
But at Lebanese civilian in the south are suffering, Hezbollah is hitting Israel harder than expected. So much for the idea that the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and the pager attack put an end to Hezbollah as a fighting force. Please click through on these tweets:
JUST IN: 161 rocket alerts just fired across central Israel simultaneously.
5.9 million people reached for shelter at 2:26 in the morning.
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv today. Hezbollah sent drones from the north at the same time. The combined barrage was a… pic.twitter.com/HpliIGjV5q
— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 5, 2026
Israel has warned all citizens from densely inhabitants in Burj al-Barajneh, Bharat Hreik, Shiyah , Harat-Hreyk, and Hadath in Beirut the capital to evacuate immediately. The reasons? reduce civilian presence before strikes • allow heavier bombardment of targeted structures •… pic.twitter.com/duVzkZ1ovo
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has pledged to continue the group’s fight against Israel, which continues to bomb Lebanon and occupy positions in the south of the country. Qassem rejected the Lebanese government’s plans to disarm the group. pic.twitter.com/wocl5iPgIe
Hebrew media reports that Israel is preparing for a scenario in which rocket fire from Iran and Hezbollah could escalate, with Yemen potentially joining in.
“Israel” has become an information blackout zone, an isolation chamber where we're forced to rely entirely on second-hand reports of explosions, since people are getting arrested for sharing footage of missile strikes.
It must be going far worse for them than they’re letting on
after seeing the reasonably credible Iraq cell phone vids, my evidence-free opinion is that the US is slow-walking American death-injury transparency.
*probably?* not reaching the IRGC’s assertions of 500, but it will be a miracle if only 6 KIA to date, US casualities has to be in the dozens?
The US has copied the IDF info war playbook. ….as retarded as it is, given that the sanctity of respecting ded American military is one of the few trans-identity American social glues left.
Vicky Cookies
Douglas MacGregor, interviewed yesterday, reminded us that this is par for the course for the U.S. since at least WW1. Vietnam may have been a bit of an outlier, with the press exercising some freedom and doggedness, and some in the military blamed diligent reporting for their loss. That freedom has since been corralled, and that doggedness leashed.
Tom Stone
Of course the Trump Administration is lying about American casualties, they lie to frickin’ Federal Judges FFS and they do it brazenly.
“So whatcha gonna do about it, judge” is their well documented attitude.
Do you think Bari Weiss is going to bat for Freedom of the press?
Trump is unhinged, how he reacts when it becomes clear he is a loser is an existential question.
Greg Stoker, a recent ex-Ranger (who left the service by becoming a conscientious objector) Danny Haiphong, argued the reverse, that there is a procedure for notifying the families of the deceased and that makes it pretty hard to hide deaths. But he said casualties were a completely different matter.
Jonathan Holland Becnel
I wouldn’t put it past our warmongering Department of War to rejigger the formula like the GDP numbers or Unemployment!
redleg
True, but those are not public notices. Someone would have to aggregate them one by one to get a coherent total.
Carolinian
Add in an American culture including film that is saturated with good guys/bad guys (or gals) narratives and righteous violence against shadowy perps–often Russian/Slavic or Middle Eastern. It’s only when the body bags start flowing in that these childish fantasies have to meet up with reality. Some of us have always said that Trump is not a serious person and the Fox newsers working for him are also not serious. The Yves warning above tells us that all of this is serious as a heart attack for the world in general and not just those faceless dead toward whom the markets and often the America people themselves are indifferent.
The Cold War was bad but at least back then the world was afraid of conflict and of the nuclear demon threatening everyone. These idiots with their heads full of video games and the Israelis with self supposed get out of jail free cards may be a our doom.
hk
Let’s not forget that, in films (and fantasies) the designated “good guys” are free to do morally wrong things because their alleged moral superiority makes up for it. Of course, only “you,” the designated good guy, sees things that way and to everyone else, you are as vile a scum as any–except we rarely get to see that side of things.
Cat Burglar
You don’t want to go releasing casualty numbers ahead of a War Powers Act vote.
Cat Burglar
The House has voted against invoking the War Powers Act. We should see the casualty numbers any time now.
“KAISERSLAUTERN, Germany — The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is squeezing some expectant mothers in the Kaiserslautern Military Community and beyond out of the labor and delivery ward at the largest Defense Department hospital overseas.
Social media forums abounded Tuesday with requests for advice stemming from a screenshot of a memo saying that Landstuhl Regional Medical Center’s services for labor and delivery were suspended until further notice.
The closure is “due to the hospital’s primary objective,” according to the memo, which was signed by Lt. Col. Elizabeth Gelner, a doctor with the OB/GYN clinic at Landstuhl….”
Link from stars and stripes
IMO casualties incoming
Louis Fyne
this is the big one. a whole section of military health care is devoted to dependent health. when the OB ward needs to be cleared out, someone finallg understands the gravity of the situation.
US military health care is not ready for this, The typical IED blast victim 20 years ago got the luxury of Herculean medical efforts as the casualty volumes were low.
And, all those combat-tested ER staff from 20 years ago largely are retired from military service, even aged out of being in the reserves.
Gailstorm
Reports from relatives of those stationed there is that he personnel scattered to different buildings. That doesn’t mean anyone is safer but that if hit, less will die in one blast.
Jonathan Holland Becnel
Have a friend who’s in the Louisiana National Guard. They just received an alert to be ready to maybe ship out to the Middle East.
This guardsman was acting like it was a joke, but we disabused him of that notion pretty quick. This isn’t like Afghanistan, son. YOU WILL DIE. GET OUT NOW.
Young
One thing that stuck with me that, in the first weekend of the war, there were more causalties in the U.S. due to mass shootings than the causalties in the war zone.
Louis Fyne
re. 2nd, 3rd order effects. capping a natural gas well, or turning off a smelter and then restarting everything is not like turning off the water main in your house. things just don’t go back to normal immediately.
we’re approaching that cliff where actors have to decide: welp, no hope for the status quo ante bellum, gotta turn odf the lights tomorrow.
Mikerw0
I am staggered when discussing with people where I consult that they completely buy that we have basically succeeded, that our air superiority has won the day, that Iran’s ability to respond is almost muted, etc. That the region will return to normalcy imminently, shipping will resume, etc.
These are bright, informed people. No amount of evidence to the contrary will even dent their belief’s which is partly based on a hatred of Iran, not going to actual on the ground news sources, a desire to get back to when things were good, and Iran no more, some amount of Israel is our only true friend and democracy.
I am now reminded of Vietnam. I tool way too long for the general population to turn against it. I know some will argue that the population already doesn’t support this, but the issue is Trump doesn’t care about the population so long as the billionaire class an defense contractors keep whispering sweet nothings in hi ears.
pjay
Bush’s “mission accomplished” speech was given on May 1 2003 (on the deck of the Abe Lincoln! – then parked safely off the California coast). Afterwards liberty, justice, and the American Way were established in Iraq … oh wait.
The images I’ve seen on the mainstream news of our bombing the s**t out of Tehran remind me of those images of our bombing the s**t out of Baghdad. It was easy, even for someone strongly opposed to the war like me, to believe that we would soon subdue the country. And what happened next?
The problem though, as Larry Wilkerson and others here have pointed out, is that the Israeli/neocon plan does not depend on “conquering” Iran or establishing a “friendly” government there. Chaos, death, sectarian conflict, and balkanization will work just fine for them, as it has elsewhere (including Iraq, at least so far). In that regard, I fear that Hegseth et al. are correct – that as with Syria, we can keep this up for years. I sincerely hope I’m wrong and that Iran proves to be the overreach that brings this whole miserable project down. But it’s hard to allow myself much optimism at this point.
.Tom
Chaos, civil war, and an impotent failed state in Persia are not in the US interests. But that doesn’t matter because fundamentalist nutters are in charge and that’s what they want. There could be hope, as Yves keeps pointing out, that the market response brings some realistic forward thinking to bear. But fundamentalist nutters aren’t the best at dispassionate hard analysis and may not be able to interpret the data. They are monumentally incoherent and they don’t care. I wouldn’t put it past them to understand markets exactly wrong, e.g. closed Strait and $150 oil is good for us because it hurts China and Iran more than us.
Or maybe Iran can absorb all that ordnance, keep going and give us the truly vicious headache Wilkerson mentioned.
Idk.
Stay strong, pjay. Somebody I want to not emulate has the catchphrase “Hope is the enemy of analysis,” so I choose hope.
> Hegseth et al. are correct – that as with Syria, we can keep this up for years.
That may be valid, “all else equal” — assuming that ordnance supply chains are not disrupted.
The thought occurs that the senior DoD appointees may soon gain real-life experience in the fragility of modern (Western) supply chains.
JP
I am not staggered. Informed and belief are two different things. Being well informed is a lot of work requiring a basic understanding of the root structure of a wide range of natural and contrived phenomena. Belief is simply buying in to someone else’s narrative. Like falling out of bed.
Congress is filled with believers. The US is filled with (cowboys) believers. Therefore it is the dominant narrative that will have to change. If you are waiting for informed, it ain gonna happen. What this post is largely about is catastrophic supply change shortages. That will change the narrative.
Samuel Conner
> It is the transition from a globally integrated commercial order into a world system governed by scarcity, coercion, and administrative triage….
It sounds like a short-cut to the fourth quadrant (scarcity + hierarchy) of Peter Frase’s Four Futures.
Deschain
Which also happens to be the whole point of AI. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all these threads are coming together at once.
People should take Sam Altman more seriously when he says AI will replace people. It’s the desired endstate.
GF
I certainly hope Altman is the first to be replaced.
Henry Moon Pie
This situation is an example of what degrowthers talk about when they say that we have a choice:
1) planned degrowth with redistributed income and wealth, large investments in public goods, especially public trans; or
2) unplanned degrowth brought about by wars over resources, increasingly frequent weather disruptions affecting everything from food supply to insurance availability and social instability.
Kate Raworth and Jason Hickel have laid out a way to “land the plane,” but Western societies seem to prefer flying Acme airlines.
lyman alpha blob
About this plan to use the “Kurds”. The US/CIA may be claiming this, but how do we know for sure who exactly might be being sent to the Iran border? The US has employed the Kurds many times when convenient, and notably left them high and dry when their usefulness came to an end. But there is some history in the US media of them as an “ally”. Having them assist again wouldn’t seem like a bridge too far for a heavily propagandized US audience is what I’m guessing the PR people are thinking.
But we are also told that a whole lot of ISIS fighters were released from Syria not long ago. And I have a very hard time believing the actual Kurds would be so stupid as to assist the US again. It’s highly possible there are no “Kurds” fighting at all, this is just another branding exercise of the type Trump’s people are fond of, and the real fighting force being sicced on Iran is actually composed of ISIS head choppers. The Kurds just agree to lend their name for PR purposes.
Retaj
Türkiye has a history of oppressing the Kurds. I believe Wilkerson questioned whether they would like supplying weapons to them. Also witness the unintended consequences of arming and hiring other groups such as the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan and the country of Iraq against Iran.
Expat2uruguay
Well then, even better if they are destroyed by Russia-provided helicopters! Africa will also rejoice.
mrsyk
A little history on the Kurds. From The Kurdish Project, this is post Sykes-Picot/WW1,
At the end of the War, the Treaty of Sevres was drafted to deal with the dissolution and partition of the Ottoman Empire. The Treaty bolstered Kurdish nationalists’ aspirations by providing for a referendum to decide the issue of the Kurdistan homeland.
The Treaty of Sevres was rejected by the new Turkish Republic, and a new treaty (The Treaty of Lausanne) was negotiated and signed in 1923. The Treaty of Lausanne annulled the Treaty of Sevres, giving control of the entire Anatolian peninsula to the new Turkish Republic including the Kurdistan homeland in Turkey. There was no provision in the new treaty for a referendum for Kurdish independence or autonomy. Kurdistan’s hopes for an autonomous region and independent state were dashed.
If the Iranians want to move the region out from under the US/ISR boot, addressing this historic wrong should be viewed as potentially effective tool. I imagine the Kurds would like to move on from playing Peter Pettigrew to the West’s Lord Voldemort.
Restoring some form agency to the Kurds seems like an easy path to defanging the land war.
hk
Like declaring Kurds an Iranian tribe (which they sort are), create a Kurdish state federated with Iran, and claim for it the Kurdish inhabited regions of Iraq, Syria, and Turkiye, who should rightfully “return” to the fraternal union with Iranians? Not suggesting if this sort of thing is anything close to reality, but the fact is that assertion of rights of some supposedly oppressed ethnic group frequently becomes rationale for warmongering. (Poland was the frequent group here–the French having been the frequent “advocate” for their maximalist cause, and that fact providing basis, in turn, for, if not outright cooperation, at least German-Russian amity.)
mrsyk
frequently becomes rationale for warmongering, yes, why not for peace mongering as well! Hey Iran, what does your post US/ISR vision look like? Huge opportunity here for Iran, and I don’t think Erdogan would get in the way as he must be reading the writing on the wall and a buffer zone of semi or fully autonomous Kurds between Turkey and the Caucuses might appeal to him.
Dadda
You are pricing a military campaign. Four to five weeks, President Trump says. Brent at seventy-nine dollars reflects that assumption. Your models show a temporary supply disruption, a brief spike, and mean reversion by Q2. Your equity book is positioned for the dip-buying playbook that has worked after every geopolitical shock since the Gulf War.
You are structurally mispriced.
Not about the war. About what closed the Strait. https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance
Samuel Conner
Thank you; that is a persuasive and disturbing analysis.
It will be interesting to see how governments react to the realization that “the Market” cannot solve this problem. Me thinks that more interventionist regimes will fare better, which might have significant consequences for the competition among states with different governance systems.
vidimi
To add, this will result in a loss of premium to the insurers, as well, which will put yet more deflationary pressure on the global economy.
That is an impressive essay. Reinsurance verification cost is a phrase that will stick with me.
fjallstrom
Interesting article, but I don’t quite get why it would take months to reinstate insurance coverage.
If I understand correctly, the insurers have withdrawn coverage for any ship passing the strait of Hormuz because of the war and the threat of ships being sunk. If the war ended tomorrow there would be no more threat, so couldn’t the insurers just go “strait of Hormuz is now fine, your policy now covers passage there”?
This war will not end cleanly, like WWII with the occupation of the enemy’s capital and installation by the victor of a provisional government. So the insurers will wait until the cessation of hostilities looks durable. That timing is even more in doubt with Israel, which has never respected a ceasefire. At best, they have only paused operations to rest and resupply.
lampoon
It will take months to reinstate insurance coverage because, as explained by Mr. Perera in impressive detail, insurance coverage has been withdrawn because risk cannot be priced, what he calls an ‘actuarial blockade’ caused by verification costs exceeding transaction value. He maintains that even if the military timeline of a few weeks to a ceasefire occurs, there is no insurance reset button to quickly return to status quo ante. “[R]einsurers must rebuild risk models from scratch incorporating new conflict data. Each vessel seeking Gulf transit must be individually re-underwritten on a voyage-by-voyage basis. Pricing must clear across the entire reinsurance chain, from treaty reinsurer to P&I club to shipowner. Capacity that was withdrawn at the treaty level must be reinstated through negotiation, not announcement. This is a sequential, multi-party process that cannot be compressed by political will, executive order, or diplomatic breakthrough.” He estimates a timeline of six to eighteen months which only starts after hostilities cease. Meanwhile no uninsured vessels will transit the Strait. Mr. Perera also points out that there is no existing government mechanism to backstop this insurance void to shorten the reinstatement period. “When verification costs exceed transaction value in concentrated markets without government backstop, the market does not reprice. It disappears.”
boshko
thank you for this. really comprehensive and astute analysis. too many excellent quotes to even bother reproducing. go read!
will add that it makes a very sharp analogy from commercial P&I insurance and the “actuarial blockade” to breakdown of trust and increase of counterparty verification costs thus inverting the economics of interbank lending in september 2008. an inasupicious analogy for sure.
Revenant
Thank you for posting this. It was very informative.
I had previously posted that the point of leverage for the USA to fix transit of the Straits (if it is willing to burn actual ships but hey at least it was insured, buddy…) is the reinsurers because you only have to worry about the incentives for the reinsurers and contractual fixes for them and a small number of counterparties (the reinsurers and insurers). However, I had no idea that retrocessional insurers exclude war risks, so I had also imagined one could repeat the same trick and just focus on the retro market.
skippy
Estimated 10/20 billion stranded north of the straight as of now … would someone please think of all the unsatisfied contracts …. expand that to all the disruption occurring globally ….
Waiting to see if a black box node gets whacked …. built to withstand a nuke or so it was said …
mrsyk
Ahh, that’s where our strategic reserve is.
skippy
mrsyk … there is the velocity of money/trade to consider here ….. whack on insurance and wheeeee~~~~
It has been my long held opinion on NC that contracts [See Graeber] proceed everything else – full stop – even from a PK/MMT view. That was the reason I mentioned the financial black box nodes. They record every financial transaction flowing via the digital/internet from all over the world for financial centers as a record. Per se if something untold happens that node has a record of everything before a bad event. Hence lets say Iran when hitting UAE they targeted their node how that would be.
Louis Fyne
Trump is going to ban LNG and distillates exports too, when SHTF and spot electricity (correlates with spot NG) affects southern A/C bills oand industrial output.
Or maybe Trump will have a Jimmy Carter moment and tell Americans to turn up the A/C thermostat to 85 for Bibi. Now infringing on the Amecian right to have ice cold A/C….that’s what sparks a revolution, lmao
Victor Sciamarelli
[This comment was removed because it contained AI content]
tegnost
No one needs AI overviews of anything.
mrsyk
Sadly, this comes up against Google searches, and it turns out I do a lot of that.
As a side note, yesterday I was trying to learn more about the Kurds online and found myself wishing for a library instead of a laptop.
vtpeaknik
You can set up the Google search in your browser to return “web” answers by default, without the Artificial Information. Google that to find out how :-)
mrsyk
Yes, but I’ve noticed this doesn’t change the links in the search return. Leads me to wonder if there’s any difference except skipping the overview, which I examine, but with a fistful of salt.
mana
I’ve switched to kagi at the recommendation of the excellent Cory Doctorow, and it’s the last subscription I’ll cancel
If you are smart and informed enough to formulate the right questions for AI, as you seem to be, then you don’t need to rely on AI for the answer. It’s a short cut not worth taking, and certainly not worth our time.
voislav
Israel water production is ~2 billion cubic meters, ~1.2 billion from freshwater and 0.8 billion from desalination. Freshwater mainly comes from Jordan, Sea of Galilee and Golan Heights and it’s mostly used in agriculture. Desalinated water provides ~90% of Israel’s drinking water.
So the AI is wrong, only ~40% of Israel’s water comes from desalination, but most of its drinking water does. The question is how flexible is the system, can they redirect freshwater from the east to serve coastal cities.
Richard
Not just redirecting, is the non desalinated freshwater drinkable or can it be directed into equipment that can process it to make it so?
Huey
Even if Trump exits the conflict, though, I don’t see Iran letting them walk away, or reopening the strait. Not unless the retreat comes with serious concessions regarding Israel and the US bases.
Iran had warned everyone about what it planned to do, yet they still got attacked. If they don’t stick to their guns they’re risking another US conclusion that ‘they’re all talk’. Even when Trump did request a ceasefire earlier, Iran quickly shut it down, so it feels to me like all Trump did this time was open Pandora’s box.
Acacia
This. Iran seems to be in the driver’s seat now.
Trump can exit but that means leaving Israel to twist in the wind.
The Rev Kev
I can live with that.
eg
It’s the Hotel Qatarfornia …
Curious
I just don’t see the USA/Israel giving up the sanctions weapon even if they lose on the battlefield (aka exit the conflict). The straight of Hormuz feels like their only shot at getting sanctions relief which they will need to rebuild after all this bombing, and my guess that boots on the ground in Iran would be to clear the straight (if that’s even possible) so try to take away that card from them.
John Wright
If Iran were to get sanctions relief, how could Iran depend that the relief would be long term?
Reimposition of the sanctions could occur quickly as the USA is not “agreement capable”.
Trust is difficult to win back once it is lost by repeated untrustworthy actions.
Curious
I think thing Iran has going for it is the straight. If the sanctions come back, the straight closes again. If it proves to be as painful as predicted it’s an actual thing that could keep the USA honest.
John Wright
This may not be a very stable system as shutting down the strait immediately stops the flow of raw materials goods (oil, Sulphur, food) to many nations, some of whom may be uninvolved in the sanctions.
But sanctions relief finished goods flow from the sanctioning countries (medicines, industrial goods, consumer goods, food) might take time to be be manfactured and shipped.
Would the Hormuz strait be shut down until the sanctioned goods were received?
thoughtfulperson
Been thinking of the UN Security Council, if the rules were changed to consensus minus one, then any country blocking resolutions would need to convince one other country. This would eliminate the ridiculous USA veto on everything.
With that eliminated, perhaps UN resolutions would be worth something. An agreement with the usa would be worthless but perhaps a UN resolution, backed by China and Russia (not vetoable by a sole us vote) would provide the confidence needed.
Socal Rhino
Iran has been pretty clear that their terminal conditions are the US retreat from the gulf and the elimination of the settler colony. They view this as existential.
Meanwhile our warfighters are being told they are going to fight a holy war to make the eschaton imminent. No sarcasm tag.
Not going to be a 4-week war.
ISL
Simplicius argues the US fighter jet claimed to be over mountains to the north of Tehran is real, and likely came from the Caspian (Azerbaijan). It’s now being widely reported that Iran has hit targets in Azerbaijan with two Shahed drones – clearly a warning. I do not expect the Azeri pipelines to survive this war.
I doubt that thesis, but do believe that that the Iran wr does embody a convergence of Zionist and China hawk interests.
dingusansich
The Tinsdale “Dem Bones” on supply shocks expansively updates the scenario for Countdown to Looking Glass, a less known made-for-TV movie from 1984 about a Cold War standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. C2LG ended with—oh, that would be a spoiler; Tinsdale ends, after Order 12, with a “permanent bureaucracy of geopolitical total war.” Which sounds a lot like—1984. It’s like living in a zombie flick. You think the undead (the deep state? the seven deadlies? DNA?) have been put down at last only to discover—they’re ba-ack. It’s true: A woman’s work is never done. Thank you for the dailies, Yves.
Louis Fyne
seemingly in those 70’s/80’s books, TV media, the majority of WW3 scenarios started with an Iran, Israel, Saudi-related incident. which always struck me as implausible (versus the Soviets just unilaterally rushing towards Frankfurt)….until now, lmao
vidimi
time travellers trying to warn us
Bugs
The MSM propaganda bullhorn is glitching. Read the comments on this NYT piece this morning – dogs not eating the dog food this time:
In this framework, hyperinflation emerges as the social expression of real physical bottlenecks. When energy-importing states are forced to acquire dollarized fuel at any price, when currencies weaken, when fertilizer and transport costs reprice an entire harvest cycle, inflation ceases to be cyclical and becomes coercive.
Iran and Venezuela shared one thing in common, both are longstanding champions of hyperinflation and we’re not talking some crummy little 1 to 2 year gig such as Weimar, or even Mexico’s dozen year bout with hyperinflation, both have been at it for about 4 decades now!
In Iran in 1975, it took 5 Rials to equal a buck, now it’s about a million and half!
In Venezuela in 1980, it took 4 Bolivars to equal a buck, now its 42 million!
Obviously savers in any Dollar form get wiped out if we get the hyperinflation hex, be it savings, stocks, bonds, the gamut.
There aren’t many things to buy that cost a lot aside from real estate, and the blow-out end of the housing bubble would have people desperately getting rid of greenbacks, with nobody holding real estate all that eager to take rapidly depreciating almighty bucks for their goods. but the numbers could get quite bandy, i’m talking $50 million for a domicile now worth a million in LA.
JP
I would argue that a diversified portfolio of the right stocks would be the best hedge against inflation. Ones that represent basic needs. That is, a retreat to gold and bartering potatoes is, I hope, too extreme. If there is any real market economy left those supply chains will represent fair value. I’m waiting until everything is in the toilet to buy but just in case I have planted a lot of potatoes. That is how I look at savings.
Wukchumni
I’m thinking more along the lines of availability of consumer goods being scarce ala the USSR, instead of 34 different toothpaste choices, maybe a couple instead.
The bigger move would be psychological, as we’ve made the garnering of as much money as you possibly could, the ne plus ultra of everything that is right and just in the land.
You can’t just take that away rather all of the sudden~
elissa3
“instead of 34 different toothpaste choices, maybe a couple instead”. This would be the common-sense way of adjusting to shortages and, it too would require a psychological adjustment by most Americans. I am of the school of thought–J M Greer and C H Smith are leading advocates–that we have WAY TOO MUCH STUFF. So much more than is needed for a good life. Whether and how the psychological adjustment will come about in the USA is unknown since the last time widespread economy/frugality happened was about a century ago.
Stocks did horribly during only 7% ish inflation in the 1970s.
Two big reasons:
1. Stock valuations depend on discounting expected future cash flow. At high discount rates, that is bupkis
2. No one trusted financial statements because different line items inflated at different rates and depreciation tax shields were inadequate. Whether to use LIFO or FIFO made a difference.
JP
I named no stocks. I did not give investment advice. I proposed selecting stocks that would perform in a certain situation not the broad market and most important the 70’s was absolutely the best time to buy stocks at a discount when no one realized the future cash flow would be so good. Stocks have always out performed in the long run.
You DID give investment advice. You recommended investing in a diversified portfolio of stocks. And you then conceded that by trying to defend stocks as an investment. Don’t pretend otherwise.
Lats in the 1970s after 7+years of moderate inflation and valuations had become depressed, per the famed Business Week Death of Equities cover story, is not even remotely where we are now. If Volcker had not embarked on his racial experiment of driving policy rates to over 20% to break inflation, which also almost broke the banking system, Lord only knows how long it would have persisted. To suggest that that is remotely comparable to where we are now is also bogus.
In addition, the Tindale article predicted hyperinflation. That is a very dire call but if you buy that forecast, all financial assets will become trash.
JP
Just catching up here. Respectfully:
Analysis is not advice. I made no recommendation. It was simply suggesting that a select basket of stocks would be a good hedge against inflation. Prudent equity ownership is not investment it is savings. As savings stocks are a long duration instrument that has never had a loss over a 20 year time frame, and that was the great depression. What did Warren Buffet say, the ideal holding time for a stock is forever. Citing Volcker is disingenuous. What if something did not happen is a logical vehicle that can be deployed to justify any conclusion imaginable. There are very few blue chip issues bought in the 70’s that haven’t performed well ahead of inflation.
The hyperinflation argument was correctly debunked by Wuk.
1. Stop misrepresenting. This is investment advice. Telling people what asset class to own is undeniably investment advice. Experts like Wilshire charge big bucks to the likes of CalPERS for precisely this sort of recommendation. There are other investment options: bonds, cash, real estate, foreign currencies, foreign bonds, foreign equities.
2. Saying stocks are an inflation hedge is abjectly false and reflects ignorance of investment basics, as in the impact of higher interest rates in discounted cash flow models. You discount free cash flows at a higher rate BOTH due to the risk free rate AND a higher risk premium in a higher interest rate environment.
Stocks performed HORRIBLY during the inflationary 1970s. They did well ONLY when you got in at the end of the period and caught the monster tail wind of the disinflation from 1982 through the 2008 crash. Dismissing the impact of the shift from high inflation to disinflation is a simply shameless misrepresentation. You also would have done very well with less downside then by buying high-grade corporate bonds. They were yielding 13% to 15%. And that was the better play since there was no clarity as to when the high inflation would end.
3. Wuk is not a finance expert. With all due respect, I am. I have had multiple billionaire clients back in the day. My advice to one made over a $2 billion difference in outcomes. I recommended another multi-hundred million investment to another client that produced a 24% compounded annual return over 13 years. Please tell me if you have ever delivered remotely this much in value to clients.
4. The invocation of hyperinflation is a straw man. That was not the basis of my recommendation. However, if the Tindale scenario comes about, we will have hyperinflation. What generates hyperinflation is a very large reduction in real economy productive capacity. That is what Tindale predicts.
flora
re: “No no no. NO INVESTMENT ADVICE!!!”
Absolutely true. I’ll leave a much too long comment about assuming political and financial outcomes on the cutting room floor, as they say.
What’s the old saying? “Past performance is not indicative of future results,…”
Huey
Ironically, if the US/World at large had gone full speed ahead with scrapping oil dependence and switching to solar/wind (for energy and transport power), those would be two things Trump wouldn’t have to worry about from the strait being closed.
Louis Fyne
south korea is going to wish that it didn’t have a nuclear plant moratorium two presidents ago
alrhundi
Fossil fuel dependence is a failure of energy policy and a security risk.
NN Cassandra
There are reports of Chinese warship yesterday deploying to Persian Gulf to provide escorts to their tankers, so they will at least try. We will se if Israelis dare to go USS Liberty on China.
Louis Fyne
that tweet got deleted. In my evidence-free opinion, a circle of Twitter is wish-casting their Platonic ideal of a Russo-Sino-Iranian grand alliance against the West onto the present situation.
IMO, China is going to be lower-case-C conservative—even if/when it burns through its strategic hydrocarbon reserves.
LY
China’s drive for high speed rail and vehicle electrification wasn’t just so it could take the lead in yet another technology or cleanup its air.
WJ
Yes, there is much propaganda on both sides. Particularly impressive claims on both sides should be met with skepticism until strongly corroborated.
mrsyk
Agreed. That there are deranged leaders with nukes on the pitch is not lost on the Chinese. I will add that, in the end, China would likely prefer to keep the destruction away from her borders, that is, if push comes to shove, we may see the Chinese engage in the Gulf theater.
vidimi
I don’t really see how China can get more involved even if it wants to. It can’t ship its troops and weapons over to Iran while the US Navy is operating in the vicinity, flying them will burn an awful lot of oil and Iran might soon not have the airfields, and they are vulnerable over land as well. The only way they can help is if they have some Deus ex machina oreshnik type missile that they’re willing to use to strike enemy targets
ISL
Please listen to Alistair Crooke on Nima or the Judge. Or listen to Carl Zha on Rachel Blevins. China has been flying in weapons large C-31 equivalent airframes multiple per day for months. They can fly over the Caspian and there is nothing the US navy, 1200 miles distant from Iran, can do. Do you really think militaries worry about the cost of fuel? Iran has been preparing for this for 20 years – you do not think they stockpiled drone components in their underground missile cities since June 2025?
In any case, Iran needs most is satellite ISR and advanced radar & operators – it doesn’t need Chinese troops to repel the small expeditionary force the US could put together in a few months in Azerbaijan (that could never cross the mountains). It also needs China NOT to sell to the US MICC rare earths.
Without radar and interceptor missiles, and the US is rapidly getting blinded, you do not need an oreshnik, a shahed will do.
mrsyk
Yes. Although this doesn’t address getting more involved, it’s good to understand that there is considerable involvement already. From comments yesterday, China’s satellites over West Asia: A silent shield for Iran, the Cradle, hat tip Xiaolei Mu.
I have no idea how to confirm the content, but I’ve found the Cradle to be a good source in the past. There’s considerable detail and I highly recommend five minutes on this.
Alan Sutton
Carl Zha’s mate Brian Berletic has a good video out a couple of days ago on the real world limits on Chinese intervention and also what they have already been doing.
By the way, I hope Brian is OK. He seems to have lost a lot of weight.
Lefty Godot
Between the lies on one hand and the wishful thinking on the other, it’s hard to tell what’s really going on as of now. It may take a couple more weeks to get a clearer picture.
DJG, Reality Czar
From the underlying Tindale essay, which goes into the causes and effects of each major breakdown:
Fertilizer Shocks: With 40% to 50% of the world’s internationally traded nitrogen-based fertilizers originating from or passing through the Gulf, a Hormuz closure dictates an immediate, violent spike in agricultural input pricing. This mathematically guarantees elevated global food prices within a single harvest cycle.
As more than one person here in the highly productive Undisclosed Region has told me, agriculture is the base of everything. Computer chips are flashy. Wheat harvests are necessities.
Even a highly productive region like my own region in Italy is not self-sufficient in foodstuffs. And the Italian food distribution system is a marvel compared to what I saw in the US of A — you’d think that Chicago of all places would have been better. Yet Italy is not self-sufficient in wheat.
No wonder Yves Smith and Aurelien are jumpy. And now, so am I.
Wukchumni
I’m noticing much more citrus on the ground in front of orange trees than usual in some large orchards around these parts.
There is always some fruit on the ground, but this to me speaks more of the fear of ICE raiding you on-the-job. Its also indicative that the fruit is pretty ripe when you see 34 golden orbs on the ground below 1 tree.
Once you get below the citrus belt, its a world of primarily almond trees, a luxury food almost all destined for export. And almonds take prep to make them edible, all I have to do is stop the jalopy and go pick up a handful of oranges on the ground, ready-to-eat.
A little over a century ago, where many present orchards are now, were vast fields of wheat.
I’m not aware of anything other than large Marge farming here, and its always mono crops-the orchards.
There are no dairy operations with 235 head, think more in the realm of 6,000 to 7,000 Bessies.
In comparison, I saw hundreds of fairly self-sufficient farms in southern Utah, where hay was grown adjacent to cow pastures.
Michael Fiorillo
I just came back from travel in the Imperial Valley of Southern California – if you want to view the parched terminus of then American Dream, check out the towns on or near the Salton Sea – and reading just now about a “permanent bureaucracy of geopolitical total war” leads me to wonder about the future of those immense alfalfa fields I saw in the desert…
It seems like everything is compelled by delusion, twisted, insatiable appetites, folly and endgame physics.
Polar Socialist
Is it called “poetic justice” or “payback is a bitch” now that Houthi seem to be in control of the food flow to Saudi-Arabia?
hk
Isn’t Russia one of the biggest exporters of fertilizer, and one that doesn’t export through the Straits, to boot?
ambrit
So was the Ukraine. But Russia is “sanctioned” now, so their fertilizer is going, elsewhere, (China?) The Ukraine’s fertilizer exports have been curtailed by the war.
Subsistence farming is hard work. The surpluses are not as much per acre as for industrial farming. Smaller farms will mean smaller populations. The Jackpot is not evenly distributed.
PlutoniumKun
Russia is a major supplier to India and Brazil in particular. They are one of the few countries with the capacity to increase overall outputs.
PlutoniumKun
There has been a steady, consistent drop in Nitrogen use in fertilizer in the EU over the past two decades or so, mostly due to rising costs, stricter environmental rules, and better husbandry practices, with a particular drop since 2017 and a sharper dip in 2023 due to rising prices. It hasn’t impacted on yields due to the now widespread use of legumes and other methods for increasing nitrogen levels naturally. Fortunately, farmers are learning how to do more with less.
In my experience, farmers tend to hold quite substantial stockpiles of nitrogen as they purchase opportunistically when prices drop (the mostly assume long term increases). Since around 2023, EU farmers have to declare stockpiles of fertilizers and animal medicines on an annual basis at the end of the season, so national governments in the EU will have a good knowledge of just how much is on hand, but so far as I’m aware, nobody has made this information available in aggregate on any public record. Anecdotally, most farmers will have the best part of a years fertilizer on hand in storage. From past experience, farmers in northern latitudes tend to quite rapidly transition from dairy to beef use if input costs rise, but its much harder to switch to and between arable crops.
So my guess is that even a catastrophic drop in nitrogen use would not have an immediate serious impact – there is sufficient buffering in the system for most crops in northern latitudes (I don’t know much about those places with nice climates). Very significant drops in output would take several years to work their way through the food system. A good time to invest in kitchen stocks of some mature hard cheese perhaps.
Contra to your above points, there is great concern in Ireland, Britain, and elsewhere about the catastrophically wet winter causing significant leaching of water soluble nutrients, including nitrogen and potassium, from the soil profile. Arable will be impacted heavily, but leaching will even affect forage quality, raising concerns of grass staggers due to nutrient insufficiency in this seasons forage growth.
Revenant
Nobody is concerned about leaching in permanent pasture Devon. I think these concerns must be in farming areas where they sow temporary grass or herbal leys and plaster them with fertiliser to push the grass – which all runs off into the local rivers and estuaries anyway. Bluntly, if this kind of farming shrinks, it’s bad for consumer prices but better in the long run.
I don’t understand your comment, PK, about rapid switching from dairy to beef. There are huge switching costs. A dairy operation has high fixed costs (new dairy plus infrastructure = £1m!) and younstill have to pay those but off beef income. A dairy farm is also a labour intensive farm, with the cows in sheds much if the year and requiring mucking out etc.
Plus a dairy herd is not fungible with a beef herd: you can put the milking cows to a beef bull and sell beef cross calves and hope to get a decent price for them (but less than you would get with a pure beef carcase for conformation etc) but if you do this for more than a season or two, you will hurt the dairy genetics of the female calves if you keep them for replacement or you will build up a debt of heifers to purchase when you resume dairying. And the dairy cows won’t tolerate well being ranched and outwintered but will want premium imported (from off the farm, if not actual Brazilian soya) fodder and keeping indoors.
In short, switching to beef from dairy is a desperate measure except at the margins of the revenue mix (there’s always some beef because half the calves are never cut out for milking!) because you earn beef income on dairy costs (and suckler calf beef income at that: if you keep them to finish as 3yr beef cattle, you have moved from annual to two or three year cycle, with no money for a year or two and one third the output because you have to keep three years’ cows on the same land).
The switch the other way is impossible. No beef herd can jump into dairy, there’s the £1m parlour, the feed silos, the slurry pit, the cattle tracks, the sheds etc. Even if you already run an intensive beef operation with sheds and slurry pits, rather than out wintering and bale grazing, you would still need specialist labour and a mobile milking bail and, showstopper!, a herd of cows with good milk production and milking temperament and parlour training….
ambrit
Having been kicked once by a Jersey cow when the late father-in-law tried to teach me how to hand milk a cow, (much hilarity ensued amongst the onlookers,) “parlour training” is important.
Stay safe. Keep on Bessie’s “good side.”
Clwydshire
The Diesen interview with Wilkerson is one of Wilkerson’s best, and is pretty scary. It’s scary not just because we find out that Israel is moving, and possibly uploading its nuclear weapons, but because Wilkerson drives home the notion that the US just does not understand the character of the war it chose to begin. He comes back to the theme of incomprehension over and over, in convincing fashion. To listen to this makes me, at least, meditate on the ways that total incomprehension can lead to insanity.
Somehow over the course of the evening, looking at other reports, I added a theme to Wilkerson’s argument: We may be lying about casualties: We admit to 3 (now 6) casualties, but Iran, the IRGC, estimates 560 American casualties. Here is a report that foregrounds the descrepancy: “560 US Soldiers hit?”, by Money over history. Also: The US is recruiting people to go through the personal effects of the dead at Dover: https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/03/04/2126585.html (I got the latter link from a comment at MOA)
vidimi
it makes more sense when you remember how power really works (and the Epstein files gave us a glimpse into that) and that Trump’s duty is not to his country but to his bosses. The US is just the vessel by which he is carrying out his bosses’ orders. This war is not supposed to benefit the US, which is the instrument, but the stakeholders.
The Rev Kev
I’m beginning to see a similarity in the war in the Ukraine and the war on Iran. Over the past four years the Russians have managed to successfully demilitarize most of the NATO nations and those stockpiles may never be replenished. I think that the same is happening with the US & Israel in the Middle East. All those stockpiles of anti-air missiles are about to go Winchester and maybe Tomahawk missiles as well. The production of Patriot missiles is only about 700 max a year and are being used up like they are going out of style. The production of THAAD missiles is even slower and each of those missiles cost about $13 million each. And at least two THAAD systems have been nailed by the Iranians. Trump may talk about a forever war but the meter is ticking to when the US& Israel will be defenseless. I’m sure that both Russia and China are watching this development. I was going to say that rearming will take many years but since the Chinese have slammed the door shut on refined rare earths, maybe those weapons will never be restocked. In passing, the US and Israel claim many successful strikes on Iranian military equipment but it is not always necessarily so-
Eu may be just about ready to accept Russia as the leader of eu/west Asia as they become desperate for fossil. Can’t see that war lasting much longer.
redleg
My time in service predates THAAD, but a simple rule is whenever it’s announced that an entire weapons system has to be relocated it indicates that the problem is with the launchers, not the number of missiles.
Wisker
The US has plenty of short-range munitions if it’s willing to fly over Iran. Presumably in F-35’s & B-2’s but maybe in older planes if Iran’s air defense is scanty enough. Can the Empire keep the airfields operating and tolerate the occasional loss? I have no idea…
.Tom
Wilkerson in the Diesen chat precisely answered a question I put in comments to yesterday’s Iran war post. Can China or Russia torpedo a ship and the targeted navy doesn’t know who did it? Yes. Yes they can.
In yesterday’s news, US torpedoed an Iranian navy ship off Sri Lanka. That seems to open the scope of operations. Wilkerson also talked about the trilateral defense agreement. So retaliation from China or Russia could be covert.
With Tindale on top of Wilkerson I’m getting the heebeejeebees.
Btw, Yves, typo in the name in your first sentence: Tindale not Tinsdale.
hk
Bye bye, Charles DeGaulle? I don’t know where the French will be sending the ship exactly or the capability of its escorts, but they seem to stick out as a particularly useful a target.
The UAE says it intercepted six Iranian missiles and 131 drones today – but one missile and six drones fell inside the country. The UK embassy in the UAE earlier warned people to “shelter in place”
Some Arab countries in the region have sent messages to Iran, stating that they will shut down their oil and gas facilities for two months, but they request that Iran not target them. The Islamic Republic has not responded to their messages. This means energy prices will…
— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) March 5, 2026
BREAKING: US average diesel prices have reached $4.12/gal this morning according to GasBuddy data, the highest level since December 8, 2023.
It looks like the highest fuel prices in the nation, even higher than Hawai’i.
Ben Panga
That Tindale piece. Wow.
I am shook. That’s one of the most sobering things I’ve ever read.
I had some stuff about the war to say, but it seems trivial now.
Orphan
In reading it and then thinking about the “Armageddon” scenario military members have been complaining about, perhaps this type of chaos is the plan of Israel and the US Epstein Class. That, and/or manufacturing consent for a nuclear device to be used on Iran.
Henry Moon Pie
Nate Hagens just posted an interview of Tindale along with Craig Evermore, a financial analyst in Singapore. In it, Tindale talks about the need to go through the five stages of grief for our current system. “There’s a big change coming, and we can’t stop it.”
Hagens has been talking to the smartest people in the world for the past four years. This is another example.
Jason Boxman
So the wheels are going to shortly start to come off the bus of the global economy; that’s gonna be fun. Talk about complex systems and unintended consequences.
This timeline is stupid.
thistlebreath
NC’s discourse continues to be the best around. Kudo’s to all.
For a snapshot of just how deeply ingrained global ocean transport is in our consumer society, highly recommend this book from a few years back:
“The Stupidest Time-Line” would be a fit name for a geopolitical/geo-economic commentary ‘blog
The Rev Kev
‘Wilkerson points out that the deemed-essential level for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at about 412 million barrels, when 500 million is the supposed minimum “essential” level.’
Don’t forget that the US uses about 20 to 21 million barrels of oil a day. At that rate, that could all be used up in about 3 weeks. Odd and even number plates anybody?
voislav
Nah, it’s back to the lockdowns, those dropped fuel consumption in the US by 20%.
ambrit
To plausibly reintroduce lockdowns, the Elect will need a new pandemic to “emerge.” My money is on Bird Flu 2.0.
Who knows what “they” have in storage on Plum Island.
Stay safe. Keep masking.
Bill B
From the Tindale piece: “The absolute maximum nominal hydraulic drawdown capability is strictly capped at 4.4 million bpd.” So, it would last longer than 3 weeks, but your conclusion is still correct.
My God, you can hear his bone breaking in the video….
lyman alpha blob
Hero.
Tom Stone
Breaking McGuiness’ arm was stupid, astoundingly so.
The USMC is the most respected branch of the US Military which is partly due to PR, but largely due to their performance over 250 years.
Every Marine will see that clip or hear of it within a day.
Deploying the US Military domestically just became much more problematic.
JM
I couldn’t watch more than a bit, like the Pretti videos – it’s just too much to take.
Utterly disgusting that this happened, and this is a rightfully terrible look. I hope he recovers fully, and the people responsible are punished.
JonnyJames
That’s what we call “democracy and freedom” in the USA. Yes it is disturbing, but not surprising. Abusing senior citizens and veteran intelligence professionals is standard procedure. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/IBktjDNpEeE
Cat Burglar
SOP for the protectors of the Epstein Class. I am sure McGinnis is not the first.
Ray McGovern of Veteran Intelligence Professionals For Sanity was dragged out bloodied from a Hillary Clinton speaking event in 2011 (as Clinton watched from the stage) — she was denouncing political repression in brutal dictatorships– for silently standing up with his back turned towards her. He didn’t get roughed up when he was hauled off to jail for simply trying to attend a David Petraeus speech — for which he had a ticket — and had to spend the night in jail. In 2018 he seems to have had a shoulder dislocated when he rose to shout in protest during the confirmation hearings of CIA torture perpetrator Gina Haspel for CIA Director.
I know plenty of people subjected to police menacing and harassment during DC protests — our rulers don’t take kindly to being personally and publicly confronted with peaceful protest. That is one reason I found the police inaction leading up to the January 6 protests strange, as if somebody decided to let it happen.
junkelly
Iran allowing Chinese ships: I clicked through the NDTV link and didn’t find anything more than “Iran has said”. I haven’t seen any official type statements about this. You’d think it could be sourced to a Ministry or and official twitter account or something. The Houthis were able to be selective about their strait, so maybe Iran will eventually, but for now I think it’s made up to sow division.
Submarine attack: does the attacking sub have any responsibility or expectation to offer help after the ship is sunk and there are no threats?
Price of gas: The gas station on my corner has went from $2.74 on day 1 to $3.14 yesterday. An increase, yes, but I usually wouldn’t have noticed.
Polar Socialist
Regarding the submarine attack, thus says the Second Geneva Convention:
Article 18 – Search for casualties after an engagement
After each engagement, Parties to the conflict shall, without delay, take all possible measures to search for and collect the shipwrecked, wounded and sick, to protect them against pillage and ill-treatment, to ensure their adequate care, and to search for the dead and prevent their being despoiled.
Whenever circumstances permit, the Parties to the conflict shall conclude local arrangements for the removal of the wounded and sick by sea from a besieged or encircled area and for the passage of medical and religious personnel and equipment on their way to that area.
And this is what United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea says:
Article 98
Duty to render assistance
1. Every State shall require the master of a ship flying its flag, in so far as he can do so without serious danger to the ship, the crew or the passengers:
(a) to render assistance to any person found at sea in danger of being lost;
(b) to proceed with all possible speed to the rescue of persons in distress, if informed of their need of assistance, in so far as such action may reasonably be expected of him;
(c ) after a collision, to render assistance to the other ship, its crew and its passengers and, where possible, to inform the other ship of the name of his own ship, its port of registry and the nearest port at which it will call.
2. Every coastal State shall promote the establishment, operation and maintenance of an adequate and effective search and rescue service regarding safety on and over the sea and, where circumstances so require, by way of mutual regional arrangements cooperate with neighbouring States for this purpose.
pjay
In fairness, the US did demonstrate compassion in its own fashion. We didn’t call in air strikes to finish off the survivors and then use the video of that as well to further brag about our greatness. As Trump said, we follow our our moral compass; we don’t need no stinkin’ international laws!
Even the Germans during WW2 would pick up survivors following U-boat attacks. However when the survivors were being rescued and collected by the U-boats after an attack on the Laconia, a US bomber was given the order to attack the U-boats even though it was known that they were rescuing survivors under Red Cross banners. Many survivors were killed and the U-boats abandoned all rescue efforts to dive and escape. The Laconia Order was then issued which forbade any further rescue efforts during the war and opened the door to unrestricted submarine warfare. No American was ever punished for this and even Donitz was not punished for this specifically during the Nuremberg trials.
Who knows what the Iranians will do after this
erstwhile
Several years ago, I submitted a comment claiming that if the usa would turn fascist, the americans would make the germans look like pikers. I pointed out, that in my opinion, the history of the states was far more violent and racist than germany; indeed, that the german nazis had modeled many of their programs from american practice. The comment wound up, I guess, in lala land, chafing at the bit. BTW, I had a sneaky suspicion that what’s happening today was even predictable. Wow, maybe we ain’t seen nothing yet.
Many thanks, leaf, for the information.
hk
Wrt subs, not if the sunk ship is a warship and there is a state of war, I think, although the latter is the good question now.
ISL
The US congress has not declared war. The president has not canceled / imprisoned / obliterated Congress and then declared war himself.
thoughtfulperson
Remember that the Roman Senate continued for centuries after the Republic collapsed.
hk
PS. Most international conventions pertsin to civilians, I think, not warships.
junkelly
Thank you for the replies.
submarine attack: Indi.ca had similar points to make about the submarine on his latest post.
Iran allowing Chinese ships: Today al mayadeen has an article with the paragraph: “The IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control and warned that vessels linked to the United States, Israel, and European countries would not be permitted to pass through the strategic waterway.” which sounds a little closer to from an official source.
WJ
I believe the Second Geneva Convention of 1949 mandates the protection, rescue, and humane treatment of wounded or shipwrecked enemy sailors at sea.
But this is a Holy War, and we are the Righteous Barbarians.
That and the Tindale piece, along with Gail Tverberg’s work, lead me to a disturbing thought. I know that at least speaking for myself, I tend to frame these wars as “madmen at work.” Our so-called leaders are crazy.
Or just evil. Every time we try and elect someone with a different approach, they turn into a warmongering lunatic bent on destroying the world economy.
But what if there is a method to their madness? Perhaps they’ve gotten the memo that peak oil, natural resource depletion, and overpopulation aren’t just a bunch of bunk? The world only has so many years left, and they’re executing a barbaric but necessary strategy, like rats in a cage fighting over the last few pieces of cheese.
jsn
No one got a memo, I think it’s good old fashioned AI, that is Algorithmic Institutions: corporations, stock markets, central banks, and financial institutions of all kinds that structure recursive the decisions of the population that inhabits them (that the system itself selects) around feedbacks sustaining ROI.
That all of these institutions are built around the reproduction of money wealth means that they are all systemically aligned in the interest of money, which is, after all, the root of all evil. He wasn’t joking: the valuation of money over every form of life but one’s own is the abyss from which we are governed by a class of people selected by that system.
Their interest are all brought into alignment by the architecture of these interlocking institutions all aligned with the root of all evil.
taunger
What if …
was the first thing I thought last year when DOGE, the ICE swarms, and tariff trade wars began. My phrasing at the time –
“They used to pretend the hotel we were all staying at isn’t actually engulfed in flames, but rather than acknowledge it, they instead decided to simply pull out guns and shoot everyone in their way while hauling everything of any value along with them on the escape route. “
“…We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” Caine said at a news conference at the Pentagon on Wednesday morning…”
I’m sure he would never lie or mislead the public eh
mrsyk
That man’s reputation is spent. That, under Caine’s guidance, we have firmly planted both feet in a steaming pile is readily apparent.
Maxwell Johnston
Thanks for the Tindale article, and thank you NC for your consistently excellent coverage of this unholy mess.
I think we can safely conclude that the Pax Americana ended in 2026, after an 81-year run (fans of The Fourth Turning will nod knowingly).
The Yankees sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, and a Russian LNG tanker was sunk near Malta. These two actions were almost unimaginable just a short time ago, are now normalized (there’s been surprisingly little outcry), and set a dreadful precedent going forward. What’s to stop the Russians from launching sea drones on LNG tankers heading for Lithuania and Poland? What’s to stop the Chinese from whacking the next USA/UK/Australian warship performing a silly freedom of navigation stunt near Taiwan? We are sleepwalking toward global chaos (I don’t yet forecast WW3, just raw chaos), but the financial markets are pretty sanguine. So far, anyway.
If the Iran war drags on, there’s a decent chance of seeing nukes being used in anger for the first time since 1945. And I cannot help but wonder if Iran doesn’t already have a few of its own by now. They have the enriched uranium and the rocket technology, and with some discreet foreign assistance in recent months may have managed to mount a few untested devices onto long-range missiles. Only one of them needs to function properly, given Israel’s size. Just spitballing.
Project Ukraine is likely finito. The Pentagon will have little weaponry to spare for the eastern front. Zelensky can comfort himself with the knowledge that he isn’t the first loyal ally to be thrown under the bus by the Yankees. And certainly not the last: the hapless Kurds are lining up once again, like Charlie Brown, to kick Lucy’s football. Some people just don’t learn.
Amidst all the depressing news, we can be grateful to the Russians for a touch of black humor. As Qatari LNG goes dark and the Europeans start mumbling about maybe resuming natgas imports from Russia (and rumors start to swirl about re-opening NordStream), Putin drops a bomb:
Surprising that it is limited to only bringing people back into the theater of war and not out. Obviously to limit numbers of people within the airport itself and not become an even bigger target. Looking to a return to normalcy but putting commercial planes and 200 onboard at great risk. Hopefully not an accident waiting to happen.
Old Jake
So, they will be as empty coming in as going out. Who in their right mind (oh, wait?) will fly to Israel right now?
Revenant
My sweet summer child, it is nothing to do with limiting crowds.
It is to limit outflows of conscriptable Israelis, who would otherwise flee Gehenna.
And the inbound aeroplanes are presumably for recalled reservists, spooks, special forces and Third Temple chiliasts.
hk
RJ mentioned this in yesterday’s thread. I was pretty surprised that there are people coming back at a time like this, but apparently, there are quite a few.
hazelbee
exactly this.
and as of 9:29 GMT Israeli media reporting that Ben Gurion hit by Iranian missiles. – source the Aljazeera breaking news feed.
Israel said it will never withdraw from the newly occupied hills in the south of Lebanon. Today, the resistance bombarded and attacked Blat hill forcing the Israeli to pull out. The new generation of leaders in the resistance are proving themselves in the battlefield planning.
Widespread panic in #Beirut after Israel issues unprecedented evacuation order for southern suburbs. Traffic is choked, people rushing to leave & head north. Drones in the air. WhatsApp messages urging ppl to crack windows open to avoid shattering from expected blasts #lebanon
One thing is crystal clear: even if the governments of several Arab states are busy polishing Israel’s boots, the mood on the streets is completely different. Across the Arab world, ordinary people overwhelmingly sympathise with Palestine and increasingly with #Iran, while…
First container ship struck by an "unknown projectile" in the the Strait of Hormuz today. The Safeen Prestige, a 1700 TEU ship operated by Global Feeder Systems (owned by Abu Dhabi Port Group)
The attack caused a fire and the crew has abandoned ship.
Someone at the Guardian has read this NC post, or the linked Tindale article:
Globalisation is under threat from Iran war – and Britain is uniquely vulnerable
Economic ripples from US-Israel attacks will soon become waves, engulfing everything from energy prices to food
In retaliation for the US-Israeli missile attacks, Iran has launched what amounts to all-out economic warfare. Should the conflict continue even for another week, its impacts will start to be felt around the world as the third price surge since the pandemic washes through global markets.
For Britain, a further turn of the screw on living standards arrives just as political instability mounts at home, with the Labour and Conservative parties facing existential challenges to their left and right.
One thing I learned from the sanctions fiasco surrounding Russia/Ukraine is that oil is fungible. Countries that sanctioned themselves from buying Russian oil directly bought it indirectly through more complicated supply chains perhaps involving mixing with less politically naughty oil.
Isn’t something similar likely to emerge if Iran allows Chinese tankers but not others?
Did you read the post? There is no evidence that that is happening. In addition, Alexander Mercouris described long form yesterday how China does not appear to be seeking that but instead wants an end to the conflict.
vidimi
I wonder how China expects to achieve this. If it twists Iran’s arm to accept a ceasefire, then it falls the next time US/Israel bomb its demoralized population and China then loses its reliable supplier of energy and crucial link in the BRI.
I don’t see any evidence that this is happening. China is making pious statements about needing to stop hostilities, which is a coded way to tell the US to call the dogs off.
China may have big enough stockpiles and enough other kind or really important to the US players in the line of an oil/gas price increase line of fire so as to sit back, wait for the pain level to rise, and for the US to be forced to retreat. Or as with Liberation Day, that that pain will lead to Mr. Market disciplining Trump.
hemeantwell
Mercouris seems to not have engaged the understanding of the conflict held by people like Wilkerson, Ritter, Marandi and others. In their view this is Israel’s make-or-break moment, and that’s reflected in Iran’s strategy to fatally undermine the US-Israel coalition. Not doing so just kicks the can down the road, they will not repeat of the mistake of last July.
Mercouris also seems to ignore how the gangsterism of the US and Israel, including the murder of political leaders and negotiators, must be shaping the thinking of China and Russia, the latter having seen two assassination attempts against Putin. China may be making pious statements, but they and the Russians must be considering ways of using the conflict to break up the neocon coalition. What, for example, do they make of rising anti-Zionist sentiment, especially in the Republican party? Wouldn’t it be advantageous to them to not try to override Iran’s apparent aim to drive the confrontation ahead and increase public opposition to neocon warmongering?
And thank you, Yves, for making this discussion possible. Let a 1000 Naked Capitalisms bloom.
Mercouris is good at parsing official and diplomatic statements, and he keeps on top of them over time, so his take on China’s remarks is within his wheelhouse.
John k
The rumor I read is that us wanted to stop, Iran refused. So maybe China is pushing Iran to make a deal on account they want stability/don’t want worldwide recession, especially given they’re deflating? But if they did, wouldn’t this just be another 12-day? And try again in October, in time to delay or influence midterm?
Imo it only stops if Iran drives us out of the gulf and maybe disarms, or at least seriously degrades, israel military. And the whole Muslim world wants the genocide stopped.
Afaik Iran hasn’t hit elect gen/desal/turkey pipeline, maybe worried about nuke response. But Hezbollah could do it, israel not gonna nuke Lebanon, and they seem to be meeting resistance with ground invasion.
Revenant
Indeed, China wants Pax Alia (i.e. somebody else is hegemom, with the attendant costs) so China can import and export.
Russia is practically an autarchy and by shutting the Straits, Iran gives Russia superpowers of negotiation with anybody requiring oil, gas and petrochemicals (including fertiliser).
On one level, this makes Russia Iran’s natural sponsor in prolonging the war but may make China Iran’s (and Russia’s) best sponsor of peace. Ultimately, the USA will vacate the Gulf and Europe on China and Russia’s terms, if it does not start WW3.
.Tom
I thought so but evidently that didn’t sink in. Please may I blame the afore mentioned heebeejeebees after starting the day with Tindale?
JonnyJames
Thanks again Yves for posting this important information and updating. It looks like you don’t get much sleep. So much to process, so many variables and volatility. We do live in some interesting times.
Trump himself has said that people that he would have liked to see become leader of Iran have already been killed by he and Israel. Earlier mentioned too that with a future Iranian negotiating team, that a lot of them have already been killed by him. Does he even listen to himself?
SDB1
Re: Tweet about Israel as information blackout zone. Some back-up data points:
Information blackout on Iranian missile strikes has propaganda value in itself. If the strikes are not seen, then they can be denied. US objective of missile suppression can simply move to media suppression of missile attacks – an easier task.
Carlos Barleycorn
Yesterday a commenter noted that “I have friends and family in Tel Aviv, they assure me it’s not that bad”
To what extent are Israelis self-censoring their private communications in Palantir’s mass surveillance ecosystem? How do we know that friends and family in Tel Aviv haven’t been thoroughly intimidated to the point that they won’t even speak openly in private communications, let alone social media posts?
IMHO this is the ultimate goal of the surveillance state–self-imposed discipline and control on the individual level, no actual enforcement needed. Just the assurance that Big Brother sees all.
That was garden variety hasbara. I provided contradictory evidence from Steve Bannon and an interviewee, both of whom said they had a lot of contacts in Tel Aviv and they were saying it was really bad there.
raspberry jam
Palantir doesn’t operate in that way in Israel. Israel doesn’t need it; it has extensive domestic surveillance through multiple internal security agencies (Shin Bet most prominently).
The rate of major waves of strikes does appear to have tapered off compared to the first couple of days. I personally think this is due to third party backchannel negotiations to temporarily reopen airspace to allow evacuations and repatriations (not really to/from Israel, although they are taking part in it, but for the many other countries impacted). I do not think this quasi-lull will hold more than 5-7 days at most.
The Israelis I interact with daily (professional contacts) are absolutely not intimidated by the surveillance or what is happening. They believe they are in the right and they will be victorious. They believe the lull is because they are winning.
There has been an exceptionally high rate of background violence and disruption within the ‘nice’ parts of Israel for decades that kicked into high gear the last few years. Alerts to take shelter have also been a common and regular feature. When talking to an individual or even a group of individuals, they can say – and believe! – that what is happening now is not really a big deal because it is not really a change from what they’ve been dealing with for years so the “temporary” fear and uncertainty of this phase is worth it.
But compared to life in 99% of the rest of the world, including other high violence areas like the United States, it is crazy and untenable. In my opinion it is this split in experience that drives comments like that yesterday vs comments from high level observers like this site. Like I said yesterday, both views can be right simultaneously. This does not mean both are correct, it’s a difference of short term vs long term perspective.
Polar Socialist
A point has been made that Iran has now destroyed most of the US “early warning” radars in the Gulf region, so instead of the earlier 10-15 minute warning Israel now gets mere 1-2 minute warning of incoming missiles. It follows that Iran needs to shoot less missiles to achieve same or better rate of penetration.
There were just multiple videos of Ben Gurion airfield getting hit with 80 submunitions of a Khorramshahr-4 missile. It still counts as one missile.
Actually, as a side note, it seems almost as if Iran is now targeting the airfields and air bases of the region. Are we going to see how missiles can win air-supremacy?
raspberry jam
I’ve had discussions with one of them, when he was visiting the US, to the effect that I often appear to be better informed in the moment when it comes to what is happening there vis-a-vis the missiles. He didn’t disagree. They know they’re under censorship. The question here is why do normal people on the ground in Tel Aviv make statements like ‘things are normal here’ or take work zoom calls from sitting on their back deck like I did today with a colleague or take their children to street parties despite the shelter in place orders ongoing like apparently hundreds were doing yesterday despite what we read and understand to be happening from our high level view on the outside. It’s because while our high level, uncensored view shows the rate of hits and dramatic strikes from a longer perspective, they’re in short term, close perspective view on the ground where simple lived experience rule and so far there hasn’t been enough visible intercept failures in densely populated areas to make it clear how serious this is. Nobody lives at Ben Gurion, so even if it takes a direct hit (wouldn’t be the first time) as long as they can resume flights relatively soon or give a plausible reason for why not and it stays off the local news, calm can be maintained.
Acacia
The question here is why do normal people on the ground in Tel Aviv make statements like ‘things are normal here’ or take work zoom calls from sitting on their back deck …
The first 30 mins of Nadav Lapid’s new film YES (2025) explores this.
AG
Thanks for reminder!
Have you seen it? I haven´t yet. Nowadays Quinzaine stuff and outside main competition is really hard to get by.
Acacia
Saw it in a theater, yes. Very hard hitting. Audience was stunned silent when the lights came up.
Lots to say about this film (it was clearly inspired by Szabó’s Mephisto), tho I sense YES is primarily intended for Israelis who believe the war doesn’t really have anything to do with them.
hk
One of my colleagues, a Lebanese who grew up in early 1980s Beirut, described how “normally” everyone behaved at that time even though the situation was decidedly not normal. I think that’s kinda built jnto human psyche once “not normal” situstion has persisted for some extended time.
Acacia
Another possibly useful reference here is “hypernormalization” per Alexei Yurchak, and there is the 2016 documentary by Adam Curtis that considers the concept in relation to the West.
The Rev Kev
Satellite photos don’t lie and it is a wonder that other countries do not release much more of them. Or are they waiting for the right moment to do so en masse.
Cat Burglar
Israeli military censorship is an understandable precaution for them.
But western press silence about the censorship is an editorial decision to provide favorable coverage for Israel. When you only report damage on one side, it necessarily misrepresents the state of combat. A first step away from being Israeli propaganda would be to provide a disclaimer giving notice that reporting is being done under censorship — and we’re not getting that. I find the message discipline impressive; it must take a lot of work to keep the spineless editors riding herd on the hapless reporters.
Acacia
The editors have been in the bag for many years now.
One thing to note is how large and vast Greater Tehran is – its population is 14 million (assume 1 million residential buildings and another million business buildings) covering 2235 km2. Including satellite cities, it covers 9500 km2. Dr. Marandi has talked about
For reference, Gaza is 365 km2, and it took years to destroy Gaza – and this from walking distance, not 1000 km distant, requiring multiple refueling to fire standoff munitions from airframes with horrid maintenance requirements and an inability to make new parts due to the Chinese rare earth MICC embargo.
Louis Fyne
If the Nw tip of Iran was overlaid onto Portland, OR, the SE tip would hit the NM-TX border.
Iran is a family-blogging big place. the being-surrounded-by-other-countries/optical illusion/visual processing of the Mercator map makes Iran look deceptive inconsequentially small.
Milton
Iran (1,648,000 km2) is over twice as large as Texas (696,000 km2) or slightly smaller than Alaska (1,718,000 km2)!
it’s not a country you can take over after only a few weeks.
Ann
Trump says he needs to be involved in selecting Iran’s next leader, Axios reports
Didn’t the US jump all over the Chinese government because it wanted to select the next Dalai Lama and Catholic Bishops/Cardinal for China?
The Trump supporters I talk to think he’s gone mad as a hatter and are aghast at what they’re seeing. Buyers remorse, almost to a person (save the accelerationist who argues that only after an American collapse can a new style Jeffersonian democratic republic arise, to which I gently chide him as a modern day All American “Ghost Dancer.”)
lyman alpha blob
I hope he picks Guaido. Trump really owes him one.
Bill B
But then Machado would be upset. At least she gave Trump her NPP.
ChrisFromGA
” … and the worms ate into his brain”
Roger Waters/Pink Floyd
Glen
At this point I would suggest that Trump figure out how to get refined REEs, gallium, and every other critical supply that America currently sources from China to (unpolitely put it) fly out of his a$$. America doesn’t need anything from Iran, has never needed anything from Iran.
I, on the other hand, will have to approve the specific monkey that flys out of his a$$ along with everything else that America really needs. (Which is as about as realistic and required as what he demanded – maybe he needs to start thinking about what America needs to survive, not what his ego requires.)
NYT_Memes
Perhaps the Iranians need to use trolling of Trump, at least as a way to maintain humor as a sliver of sanity. This headline, which I just made up, would suffice.
“The President of Iran states that he needs to be involved in selecting the needed replacement for Donald Trump.”
My apologies to all the commentariat – I just couldn’t resist saying that.
Acacia
Maybe Congress needs to whip out the 25th and be involved in selecting the next leader of the US?
John Merryman
I haven’t read all the comments, but one point that seems worth considering, another elephant in the room, is the petro-dollar.
Unless the US has effective control of the Persian Gulf, there is little reason for the world energy markets to be priced in dollars. Which is one more large nuclear bomb in the current financial system.
ThirtyOne
File under Making Shit Up:
The popular evangelical belief in the Rapture is a relatively recent invention, not an ancient teaching passed down through centuries. It has a specific historical origin and a clear paper trail.
Anyone who’s actually read the bloody book – well, granted, New Testament is less bloody – would know that there’s no such thing as Rapture at all in it. I mean, you can read the whole Revelations, in the original Greek just to be sure, and wonder which kind of deluded idiot came up with something like that, when the actual official blueprint for the End Times has nothing at all about it, but plenty about death and misery for literally everyone – I mean, pretty much all “good guys” true believers are supposed to die gruesomely before Jesus comes back and kicks ass.
If I see an American idiot blabbering about Rapture, I know he hasn’t read the Bible seriously and hasn’t the faintest clue about his supposed religion.
ValerieinAustralia
I read it when I was studying psychology in college – so not even a BA but . . . It sounded like the rantings of a person in a schizophrenic state to me. (And no disrespect meant toward people suffering from schizophrenia.)
Clueless Joe
Well, John explicitly states in the beginning of Apocalypse that he got that vision while resting on the sun during the day of the Lord in Patmos. Basically, he got a heatstroke and became quite delirious after it – though he didn’t say it that way and that’s not the official explanation from the Church.
chris
The rapture and modern prophecy interpretations are what Deadpool would call, “an educated wish”. Most Christians who care to study the Bible and history know that. But just like there is a large audience for the prosperity gospel, there is an equally large audience of people who yearn to prove that they were “Rapture ready”.
Then there’s the crazies in office too. Which is one of the reasons we’ve arrived at this point in history. Israel has to exist to be blown up. Once it is blown up, Jesus can come home and establish his millennial kingdom.
redleg
Just because it was recently fabricated doesn’t mean that the believers don’t fanatically believe it. They do.
One definition of faith is belief despite contradictory evidence. Faith is why arguing with these people using hard evidence is pointless. They believe that fighting “Gog and Magog” somewhere near Meggido (Isr – Syr border) is going to invoke the second coming of Jesus and nothing will convince them otherwise. In addition, anything and eveything that occurs after this does not matter at all because of Armageddon. They are a nihilistic cult and they are wielding the levers of per right now.
MarkT
American fundamentalist christianity is very recent. Designed to justify wealth.
says hes a physicist…and has a lot of re-linked/re-posted thread on everything you ever wanted to know about nukes from years ago.
says the mushroom cloud has a distinctve glow, but needs more info/data.
begob
He also has a video of a huge explosion, said to be near Tehran at night – reminded me of one Russian strike in Ukraine, again at night and caught on security cam. I think the latter was the detonation of an ammo dump.
Louis Fyne
AI/photo-shopped photo. imo. to me, it’s crystal clear. just sayin.
Taking the Tindale analysis in a slightly different direction, I wonder how much of the shock to primary processing of metals and other materials can be ameliorated in the medium term by increased secondary (recycled) production. It’s been a while since I had any insight into the health of these sectors, but my impression is that recent years have not been kind to the fortunes of recyclers. This could change.
Also, as we know, plastic has limited to negligible recyclability. In some uses—containers—metal and glass can substitute, but that’s clearly not an option for many specialized medical applications.
We live in interesting times.
Eclair
The Tindale analysis popped up on my twitterfeed late yesterday afternoon, reposted by rebel economist Steve Keen. I began reading it .. slowly. Was horrified. Thought I should send it out to everyone in my family. Then realized they would think I am even crazier than usual. Bookmarked it. Went back later in the evening to read more. Became depressed and worried. Began thinking of stockpiling essential medicines. Figured I was overreacting.
Read the beginning of this post, Yves, and felt much better. I rely on you to be the level-headed one in the room and if you are saying, read this and circulate widely because this may be our last best hope for stopping this madness, and Aurelian saying that it made his hair stand on end….. well, I am sending it on to select family members.
amfortas
i just finished it, and wowee,lol.
sent it to y boys and cousin. latter hates windmills and sometimes reverts to his obama era gun nuttery…especially when i provide such articles…or get all excited and talk about them.
wants to believe real hard that amurka can just wave industry into existence…mostly because he doesnt want to live like i do,lol.
ive been advocating to mom for limited solar and wind(to run the well and the fridge/freezers) for 20+ years…but she’s set on full blown total replacement of grid…without modifying her own exorbitant electrical usage,lol.
i got screamed at a lot when china stuff was cheap and still available in usa(was it biden who stopped that?)
so i guess ill be hand pumping water(i have all that in the shop, and the means to install it manually) and carrying buckets.. to water the gardens.
ive been after autarky for 26 years…been rather crazy about the idea, in fact. but with limited resources of my own, and folks who habitually discount everything i say sitting on the money…welp,lol…ive done my best.
ill miss the internet.
and ill miss electric light.
but ill miss chainsaws and well pumps more.
Birch
Chainsaws are so incredibly useful. My fear of oil disruption in an off-grid lifestyle is what to do without a chainsaw. I simply can’t imagine it.
I’m trying to perfect rainwater collection off the roof, high enough that I don’t have to pump it or carry it any more. Smart use of gravity does a lot, but it won’t buck my firewood.
Frank
Ahh, those days of yore… ear trumpets, chest rubs, hog killing day, water eggs, cross-cut saws, mules, intestinal parasites, reading with a magnifying glass, illuminated by a kerosene lamp. Who could ask for anything more?
Glen
Back in the day where I was raised in California, all the old farms had tankhouses:
After evacuating bases and hiding military personnel in hotels, which were subsequently bombed, the United States has closed its embassies in Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon, Jordan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
The lack of planning and growing desperation are becoming increasingly evident, with rising oil and gas prices and the collapse of Asian markets.
The solution they’ve found? Escalate the bombings and drag more countries into the conflict, a measure that has so far failed to produce any success.
Title: “CENTCOM Update : Centcom is asking the pentagon to send more personal to centcom hq in Tampa to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September, according to a notification obtained by POLITICO”
Some comments:
“So interesting. I’m in the CENTCOM Navy reserve support unit based at NRC Tampa. My skipper told me two weeks ago our whole unit is being decommissioned at the end of the FY. Talk about bad timing.”
“They also posted job ads for “personal effects specialist” to “support, receive, safeguard, inventory, store, process and make final disposition of personal effects of military and civilian casualties from overseas”…..”
rowlf
Israel lobby-backed Democrats could determine whether Trump must seek approval before escalating the war in Iran.
Al Mayadeen reports that drones struck USS Abraham Lincoln, forcing it to pull back after it had moved closer to the straight. Seems based on IRGC statements (only?).
This could cast a gloom over PM Takaichi’s upcoming visit to the US.
Cat Burglar
New Daniel Davis interview with Dr. Theodore Postol on missile interception and drone guidance technology. Postol estimates an Israeli missile interception rate of 5%. Also describes the use of off the shelf infrared cameras and Iridium phone video for drone guidance.
dingusansich
And Bob’s your uncle: Warwick Powell, an Asia expert, on supply chains, knock-on effects, orientalism, and the view from China via the Peacemonger. Next fellow I’d like to hear from: Einar Tangen, a sometime guest on Glenn Diesen’s YT channel.
hazelbee
looks like the first of the new stuff coming out from iran? or have they used it already?
Al Jazeera reporting:
They said they included in the attack package the Kheibar Shekan, with a cluster munition warhead.
We have seen videos of what look like cluster munitions detonating over central Israel and raining down submunitions across a pretty wide area. There are no casualties that are being reported.
Acacia
I first saw clips of these a couple of days ago. Looks like this:
Yesterday, there were fewer videos of missile attacks on Israel. Maybe due to the Zionist media blackout.
To this layman, it looks not simply like a cluster munition, but a missile that comes with its own package of decoys, because they are descending in formation.
We are deep in the fog of war but I cannot see how Iron dome will stop this sort of attack. I.e., the putative state-of-the-art anti-missile defense system outsmarted by a bunch of flaming bomblets.
Revenant
I like a bit of systems thinking as much as the next NC groundling but some of this twelve steps article is over-egged.
First, it smells of AI in many places because of the repetition, floridity and breathlessness.
Second, it uses the word hyperinflation which is a big tell that the writer is more hysterical than rational. The market response to scarcity is a price increase and that increase may lead to a price spiral but the increase will stop provide the new lower production rate is maintained. So scarce oil prices out marginal users and raises the price of other goods, whose prices rise to force out their marginal consumers and so on. The result isn’t hyperinflation – which arises through repudiation of a currency as worthless and thus goods cost wheelbarrows of cash, not the converse – but a step-wise reduction in your terms of trade and standard of living to a lower level. We are not Argentina, we are postwar Britain.
Third, some of the sensitivities claimed seem wide of the mark. As examples:
– African copper may be affected by sulphuric acid shortage but (as the author eventually notes) not Chilean. And other places mine copper (Australasia, SE Asia).
– why would anybody substitute aluminium for copper in applications where copper is at the greatest advantage? Even if copper production fell, the price would dictate its use in electronic micro-engineering over, say, power lines. This substitution panic seems a particularly egregious form of shroud waving.
– even if aluminium requires 1.6x the area of copper to transmit the same power, in an AC conductor like a power line the conduction takes place wholly in the skin of the wire and the wires are therefore drawn hollow with the optimal thickness necessary for structural reasons to provide self-support in long spans and minimise weight. So we are talking about 1.6x a thin circumferential area.
– why would Taiwan prioritise consumer power consumption over TSMC?
– why would we start building new tankers? There are only 40 or so VLCC’s locked up in Hormuz out of 450 odd globally and they transport most of the oil by volume so the rest of the Hormuz route tankers not trapped behind the strait can be reallocated to other routes and therefore add shipping capacity (to the extent there is any spare oil to divert…). The issues with LNG are the sane, lack of supply dominates stranded shipping capacity.
That said, I enjoyed the ambition of the vision’s cascading failures and I am very glad you linked it. I might send it to the hedgie in-law….
Revenant
PS: a 13th step the author overlooked: shutting in production for weeks or months on the oil and gas fields of the Middle East is a risk in itself. The production rate of the field may be permanently impaired after shut-in…..
Oh, and it looks like Iran’s OPEC neighbours are all gambling on shutting in production to buy themselves waivers from bombing their production and refining and tankering assets. The US cannot force them to stay open with nowhere to send the output; the GCC countries can then watch the US bases absorb the bombs as they play nicely and increase the effectiveness of Iran’s blockade with plausible deniability.
The embargo of Gulf production must be comparable to a large fraction of the original OPEC blockade of the 1970’s, with only Saudi Red Sea coast and Gulf of Oman oil being available before the Straits.
hk
Someone (AG?) commented yesterday that, for practical purposes, GCC countries might de facto cooperating with Iran’s blockade, with which several of us, myself included, agreed. Shutting down the production, supposedly in exchange for Iran not attacking them, would be one good way to implement this.
hamstak
Per the Israeli state broadcaster Kan (via TASS):
Israel, US prepare to reduce intensity of strikes on Iran
According to its sources, the US and Israeli militaries came to a conclusion “that strikes cannot continue for long at the unprecedentedly high pace.”
At the same time, at this stage both Washington and Tel Aviv are satisfied with the results of their military operation against Iran.
—
Make of it what you will.
The Rev Kev
They’re running out of bombs.
ChrisRUEcon
Yep! LOL
ilsm
I suspect airplanes, logistics performance and people are “wearing” down!
The intensity of operations of a fighter/strike aircraft “unit” is called sortie generation rate (SGR). That is how many take offs can the unit generate per day.
SGR is affected by the underlying reliability of the unit assigned aircraft as maintained (over the past year or so). in the case of USAF the mission capable rates run <50%, that is one in two are broke at any given time. Under high SGR stresses the mission capable rate declines due to delayed repairs, mechanical failure generation, parts/supply chain (AI has poor performance in supply chain operations) shorts etc.
SGR is affected by the shipped with the unit spares "kit" and how rapidly it can be replenished. USAF is flying wings off C-17's lot of parts coming in.
SGR is affected by pilot wear out, flights are long with stresses, and multiple aerial refuelings.
SGR needs a large pond of JP-8! Best delivered by pipeline, worst delivered by C-17!
Yes SGR needs munitions, which are heavy and not well delivered by C-17!
SGR depends on real estate.
SGR depends on maintenance and servicing manpower.
All told a high SGR will "wear out" a flying unit in X days regardless of how well all the above are supplied.
X could under harsh conditions and moving away from Iranian drones could be <6 days!
ThirtyOne
very nice explainer!
ilsm
Thank you.
chris
“I will graciously agree to no longer do what is uncomfortable for me to continue. As a sign of proper gratitude, it is expected that you will stop doing what is easy for you to continue. Thank you for conforming to your Master’s expectations…”
I guess this is where it gets interesting. What are the odds Iran and others decide to make Israel cry uncle? Because it appears they have no options and no risk if they don’t continue. If Iran stops, the US and Israel will re-arm and attack again. If Israel is too threatened, they will nuke Iran. If Israel decides they can’t win any other way, they will alwo nuke Iran. The only options Iran truly seems to have is die on your feet fighting in order to attract allies, or die alone lying down.
Not much of a choice, but who knows what will happen next?
ambrit
What are the odds that Iran is lining up third party nuclear states to perform retaliatory strikes on Israel if said entity does resort to their Samson Option?
If the worst case scenario does happen, then the Saudi oil fields are neutralized for a decade. That leaves the north of the Persian Gulf oil producers as the remaining mass suppliers. If the Izzys do go all Apocalypto, then the north of the Gulf suppliers are out of it too for a decade. That leaves America and Russia as the Big Dogs in oil.
We live in interesting times.
Stay safe.
Carolinian
Jonathan Cook linked this. Ordinary military are complaining about their nutty commanders. Meanwhile Trump believes God spared him for a mission.
Will the rapture look like a mushroom cloud? Scary stuff. You half expect these people to start spraying their teeth with silver paint like in Mad Max Fury Road.
Carolinian
And this interesting nugget from the latest Max Blumenthal on Judge Nap. He says that Netanyahu convinced Trump that both 2024 assassination attempts were really the work of Iran giving Trump a personal and cowardly motivation for the current attack.
He also says that the Israeli desire is to get a land war started between American troops and Iran and this is what the “until September” talk is about. The latest Simplicius also pushes this idea that American troops will be with the Kurds. The real purpose of the Israelis is to at all costs keep TACO from walking away again.
bdy
Officer corps are true believers. Many enlisted are in it as the employer of last resort. Works until they’re tasked with actually killing people. If Blumenthal ^ is prescient about us walking into a land war in Asia I fear a draft.
I have a ten year old. Pretty soon I want to sit him down about putting together a conscientious objector CV. My high school English teacher walked my AP class through his successful petition during Viet Nam, and it’s a big lift for a teenager.
ambrit
We were friends with a man who did go CO during Nam. He ended up doing a Marine Corps tour in Leavenworth Prison as a result. Better you set up a rat line for your son to some nation without an extradition treaty with the US. Then, later, he can become part of the US Government in Exile.
Stay safe.
A warning to the residents of the northern settlements
You are requested to evacuate all settlements located within 5 kilometers of the border line. Your army’s aggression against Lebanese sovereignty and innocent citizens, the destruction of civilian infrastructure, and the campaign of displacement that it is carrying out will not go unanswered.
I think that demanding Israel to turn Netanyahu over to the ICJ would be a good move, Trump has never hesitated when it came to throwing an “Ally” under the bus…
xander
ah, that sounds somewhat plausible. It would give Iran direct results. It would also allow for a “see, we got rid of the bad apple, now we can go back to being the good guys again” western narrative.
Acacia
Part of a “strategy perspectives” spam email from one of my banks (boldface mine):
When the U.S. and Israel launched joint military operations against Iran last Saturday, traders initially showed remarkable restraint. That changed as the week wore on, however, and hostilities intensified rather than resolved. Markets typically move past geopolitical upsets quickly – especially when the fundamental stepping off point is as robust as it currently is. In the long term, we expect this situation will spool out similarly, though it may take time (and additional market volatility) to get there.
Getting that billboard “LIVE NOW IN THE MOST LUXURIOUS APARTMENTS” in the same frame with a building on fire was a clever touch.
Some local intel being shared for targeting ?
Maybe 80% of the population being underpaid foreign guest workers doesn’t work out so well ?
John k
Local workers are Shia, same as Iranians, so many are loyal or at least sympathetic to Iran.
ThirtyOne
It certainly couldn’t be the convoys of black Caddy Escalades showing up in front of these hotels.
Me, I’d be driving a Hyundai to the Motel 6.
Louis Fyne
no fren, they’rei incognito. They drive around in black Chevy Suburbans. big difference /sarc.
the OpSec thing to do is live in a bedouin tent. but that means no A/C for the general and his colonels, lol
Ameicans’ love of A/C is going to fknally bite us. i recall Xenophon writing about the Oracle telling Xerxes II, a great empire will fall…cuz they’re addicted to A/C
The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, said on Thursday that it couldn’t take part in a potential military campaign against Iran unless certain conditions are met, including guarantees that the security of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region would not be jeopardized and that the United States offers meaningful military support.
The Party spokesperson Khalil Kanisanani told Shafaq News that such involvement in a potential war against Iran would depend on “real military and logistical support,” not merely political backing or media statements.
His remarks followed a statement by the US President Donald Trump, who earlier said he would welcome Kurdish participation in a possible attack on Iran. Kanisanani also affirmed that no meaningful assistance had reached Kurdish forces in eastern Kurdistan, nor had the Kurdistan Regional Government received significant support, warning that “the Kurdistan Region remains largely without effective air defense protection.”
Acknowledging the presence of a limited US defense system protecting the regional capital Erbil, he noted that “there are no firm guarantees for the region’s broader security and stability in the event of a large-scale war.” He stressed that the Kurdistan Region lacks the advanced defense systems possessed by countries such as Jordan, Qatar, and Bahrain, and therefore “cannot engage in a war without receiving weapons, air defense systems, and comprehensive military support.”
Kanisanani said that part of the reason Kurdish opposition forces have refrained from conducting operations inside Iran is their respect for the laws of the Kurdistan Region and the closure of the border, noting that roughly half of the constraints stem from the regional authorities’ position against using their territory in the conflict.
Separately, an official from the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan denied reports circulating early Thursday about opposition forces moving toward Iranian territory, describing the claims as “baseless rumors”.
——
Hepativore
Any terms that the US/Israel agrees to are about the same value as a wad of used toilet paper as you know that they will renege on them almost immediately.
USreal has shown that it can never be trusted so why would anybody be willing to negotiate with it?
The radar system for an American THAAD missile battery in Jordan was struck and apparently destroyed in the first days of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a satellite image taken on Monday shows.
Buildings housing similar radar systems were also hit at two locations in the United Arab Emirates, CNN analysis shows, although it is unclear if the equipment was damaged.
after seeing the reasonably credible Iraq cell phone vids, my evidence-free opinion is that the US is slow-walking American death-injury transparency.
*probably?* not reaching the IRGC’s assertions of 500, but it will be a miracle if only 6 KIA to date, US casualities has to be in the dozens?
The US has copied the IDF info war playbook. ….as retarded as it is, given that the sanctity of respecting ded American military is one of the few trans-identity American social glues left.
Douglas MacGregor, interviewed yesterday, reminded us that this is par for the course for the U.S. since at least WW1. Vietnam may have been a bit of an outlier, with the press exercising some freedom and doggedness, and some in the military blamed diligent reporting for their loss. That freedom has since been corralled, and that doggedness leashed.
Of course the Trump Administration is lying about American casualties, they lie to frickin’ Federal Judges FFS and they do it brazenly.
“So whatcha gonna do about it, judge” is their well documented attitude.
Do you think Bari Weiss is going to bat for Freedom of the press?
Trump is unhinged, how he reacts when it becomes clear he is a loser is an existential question.
Greg Stoker, a recent ex-Ranger (who left the service by becoming a conscientious objector) Danny Haiphong, argued the reverse, that there is a procedure for notifying the families of the deceased and that makes it pretty hard to hide deaths. But he said casualties were a completely different matter.
I wouldn’t put it past our warmongering Department of War to rejigger the formula like the GDP numbers or Unemployment!
True, but those are not public notices. Someone would have to aggregate them one by one to get a coherent total.
Add in an American culture including film that is saturated with good guys/bad guys (or gals) narratives and righteous violence against shadowy perps–often Russian/Slavic or Middle Eastern. It’s only when the body bags start flowing in that these childish fantasies have to meet up with reality. Some of us have always said that Trump is not a serious person and the Fox newsers working for him are also not serious. The Yves warning above tells us that all of this is serious as a heart attack for the world in general and not just those faceless dead toward whom the markets and often the America people themselves are indifferent.
The Cold War was bad but at least back then the world was afraid of conflict and of the nuclear demon threatening everyone. These idiots with their heads full of video games and the Israelis with self supposed get out of jail free cards may be a our doom.
Let’s not forget that, in films (and fantasies) the designated “good guys” are free to do morally wrong things because their alleged moral superiority makes up for it. Of course, only “you,” the designated good guy, sees things that way and to everyone else, you are as vile a scum as any–except we rarely get to see that side of things.
You don’t want to go releasing casualty numbers ahead of a War Powers Act vote.
The House has voted against invoking the War Powers Act. We should see the casualty numbers any time now.
https://archive.ph/ugPjG
“KAISERSLAUTERN, Germany — The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is squeezing some expectant mothers in the Kaiserslautern Military Community and beyond out of the labor and delivery ward at the largest Defense Department hospital overseas.
Social media forums abounded Tuesday with requests for advice stemming from a screenshot of a memo saying that Landstuhl Regional Medical Center’s services for labor and delivery were suspended until further notice.
The closure is “due to the hospital’s primary objective,” according to the memo, which was signed by Lt. Col. Elizabeth Gelner, a doctor with the OB/GYN clinic at Landstuhl….”
Link from stars and stripes
IMO casualties incoming
this is the big one. a whole section of military health care is devoted to dependent health. when the OB ward needs to be cleared out, someone finallg understands the gravity of the situation.
US military health care is not ready for this, The typical IED blast victim 20 years ago got the luxury of Herculean medical efforts as the casualty volumes were low.
And, all those combat-tested ER staff from 20 years ago largely are retired from military service, even aged out of being in the reserves.
Reports from relatives of those stationed there is that he personnel scattered to different buildings. That doesn’t mean anyone is safer but that if hit, less will die in one blast.
Have a friend who’s in the Louisiana National Guard. They just received an alert to be ready to maybe ship out to the Middle East.
This guardsman was acting like it was a joke, but we disabused him of that notion pretty quick. This isn’t like Afghanistan, son. YOU WILL DIE. GET OUT NOW.
One thing that stuck with me that, in the first weekend of the war, there were more causalties in the U.S. due to mass shootings than the causalties in the war zone.
re. 2nd, 3rd order effects. capping a natural gas well, or turning off a smelter and then restarting everything is not like turning off the water main in your house. things just don’t go back to normal immediately.
we’re approaching that cliff where actors have to decide: welp, no hope for the status quo ante bellum, gotta turn odf the lights tomorrow.
I am staggered when discussing with people where I consult that they completely buy that we have basically succeeded, that our air superiority has won the day, that Iran’s ability to respond is almost muted, etc. That the region will return to normalcy imminently, shipping will resume, etc.
These are bright, informed people. No amount of evidence to the contrary will even dent their belief’s which is partly based on a hatred of Iran, not going to actual on the ground news sources, a desire to get back to when things were good, and Iran no more, some amount of Israel is our only true friend and democracy.
I am now reminded of Vietnam. I tool way too long for the general population to turn against it. I know some will argue that the population already doesn’t support this, but the issue is Trump doesn’t care about the population so long as the billionaire class an defense contractors keep whispering sweet nothings in hi ears.
Bush’s “mission accomplished” speech was given on May 1 2003 (on the deck of the Abe Lincoln! – then parked safely off the California coast). Afterwards liberty, justice, and the American Way were established in Iraq … oh wait.
The images I’ve seen on the mainstream news of our bombing the s**t out of Tehran remind me of those images of our bombing the s**t out of Baghdad. It was easy, even for someone strongly opposed to the war like me, to believe that we would soon subdue the country. And what happened next?
The problem though, as Larry Wilkerson and others here have pointed out, is that the Israeli/neocon plan does not depend on “conquering” Iran or establishing a “friendly” government there. Chaos, death, sectarian conflict, and balkanization will work just fine for them, as it has elsewhere (including Iraq, at least so far). In that regard, I fear that Hegseth et al. are correct – that as with Syria, we can keep this up for years. I sincerely hope I’m wrong and that Iran proves to be the overreach that brings this whole miserable project down. But it’s hard to allow myself much optimism at this point.
Chaos, civil war, and an impotent failed state in Persia are not in the US interests. But that doesn’t matter because fundamentalist nutters are in charge and that’s what they want. There could be hope, as Yves keeps pointing out, that the market response brings some realistic forward thinking to bear. But fundamentalist nutters aren’t the best at dispassionate hard analysis and may not be able to interpret the data. They are monumentally incoherent and they don’t care. I wouldn’t put it past them to understand markets exactly wrong, e.g. closed Strait and $150 oil is good for us because it hurts China and Iran more than us.
Or maybe Iran can absorb all that ordnance, keep going and give us the truly vicious headache Wilkerson mentioned.
Idk.
Stay strong, pjay. Somebody I want to not emulate has the catchphrase “Hope is the enemy of analysis,” so I choose hope.
I am old enough to remember videos of napalming Cambodia.
Here’s the one that stunned everyone.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=famous+photo+of+vietnam+girl&t=ffab&ia=images&iax=images&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.firstpost.com%2Fuploads%2F2025%2F05%2FNapalm-Girl-2-AP-2025-05-2e69a897e8f78fd88aa4eba4a932644d.jpg
> Hegseth et al. are correct – that as with Syria, we can keep this up for years.
That may be valid, “all else equal” — assuming that ordnance supply chains are not disrupted.
The thought occurs that the senior DoD appointees may soon gain real-life experience in the fragility of modern (Western) supply chains.
I am not staggered. Informed and belief are two different things. Being well informed is a lot of work requiring a basic understanding of the root structure of a wide range of natural and contrived phenomena. Belief is simply buying in to someone else’s narrative. Like falling out of bed.
Congress is filled with believers. The US is filled with (cowboys) believers. Therefore it is the dominant narrative that will have to change. If you are waiting for informed, it ain gonna happen. What this post is largely about is catastrophic supply change shortages. That will change the narrative.
> It is the transition from a globally integrated commercial order into a world system governed by scarcity, coercion, and administrative triage….
It sounds like a short-cut to the fourth quadrant (scarcity + hierarchy) of Peter Frase’s Four Futures.
Which also happens to be the whole point of AI. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all these threads are coming together at once.
People should take Sam Altman more seriously when he says AI will replace people. It’s the desired endstate.
I certainly hope Altman is the first to be replaced.
This situation is an example of what degrowthers talk about when they say that we have a choice:
1) planned degrowth with redistributed income and wealth, large investments in public goods, especially public trans; or
2) unplanned degrowth brought about by wars over resources, increasingly frequent weather disruptions affecting everything from food supply to insurance availability and social instability.
Kate Raworth and Jason Hickel have laid out a way to “land the plane,” but Western societies seem to prefer flying Acme airlines.
About this plan to use the “Kurds”. The US/CIA may be claiming this, but how do we know for sure who exactly might be being sent to the Iran border? The US has employed the Kurds many times when convenient, and notably left them high and dry when their usefulness came to an end. But there is some history in the US media of them as an “ally”. Having them assist again wouldn’t seem like a bridge too far for a heavily propagandized US audience is what I’m guessing the PR people are thinking.
But we are also told that a whole lot of ISIS fighters were released from Syria not long ago. And I have a very hard time believing the actual Kurds would be so stupid as to assist the US again. It’s highly possible there are no “Kurds” fighting at all, this is just another branding exercise of the type Trump’s people are fond of, and the real fighting force being sicced on Iran is actually composed of ISIS head choppers. The Kurds just agree to lend their name for PR purposes.
Türkiye has a history of oppressing the Kurds. I believe Wilkerson questioned whether they would like supplying weapons to them. Also witness the unintended consequences of arming and hiring other groups such as the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan and the country of Iraq against Iran.
Well then, even better if they are destroyed by Russia-provided helicopters! Africa will also rejoice.
A little history on the Kurds. From The Kurdish Project, this is post Sykes-Picot/WW1,
At the end of the War, the Treaty of Sevres was drafted to deal with the dissolution and partition of the Ottoman Empire. The Treaty bolstered Kurdish nationalists’ aspirations by providing for a referendum to decide the issue of the Kurdistan homeland.
The Treaty of Sevres was rejected by the new Turkish Republic, and a new treaty (The Treaty of Lausanne) was negotiated and signed in 1923. The Treaty of Lausanne annulled the Treaty of Sevres, giving control of the entire Anatolian peninsula to the new Turkish Republic including the Kurdistan homeland in Turkey. There was no provision in the new treaty for a referendum for Kurdish independence or autonomy. Kurdistan’s hopes for an autonomous region and independent state were dashed.
If the Iranians want to move the region out from under the US/ISR boot, addressing this historic wrong should be viewed as potentially effective tool. I imagine the Kurds would like to move on from playing Peter Pettigrew to the West’s Lord Voldemort.
Restoring some form agency to the Kurds seems like an easy path to defanging the land war.
Like declaring Kurds an Iranian tribe (which they sort are), create a Kurdish state federated with Iran, and claim for it the Kurdish inhabited regions of Iraq, Syria, and Turkiye, who should rightfully “return” to the fraternal union with Iranians? Not suggesting if this sort of thing is anything close to reality, but the fact is that assertion of rights of some supposedly oppressed ethnic group frequently becomes rationale for warmongering. (Poland was the frequent group here–the French having been the frequent “advocate” for their maximalist cause, and that fact providing basis, in turn, for, if not outright cooperation, at least German-Russian amity.)
frequently becomes rationale for warmongering, yes, why not for peace mongering as well! Hey Iran, what does your post US/ISR vision look like? Huge opportunity here for Iran, and I don’t think Erdogan would get in the way as he must be reading the writing on the wall and a buffer zone of semi or fully autonomous Kurds between Turkey and the Caucuses might appeal to him.
You are pricing a military campaign. Four to five weeks, President Trump says. Brent at seventy-nine dollars reflects that assumption. Your models show a temporary supply disruption, a brief spike, and mean reversion by Q2. Your equity book is positioned for the dip-buying playbook that has worked after every geopolitical shock since the Gulf War.
You are structurally mispriced.
Not about the war. About what closed the Strait.
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-invisible-siege-how-insurance
Thank you; that is a persuasive and disturbing analysis.
It will be interesting to see how governments react to the realization that “the Market” cannot solve this problem. Me thinks that more interventionist regimes will fare better, which might have significant consequences for the competition among states with different governance systems.
To add, this will result in a loss of premium to the insurers, as well, which will put yet more deflationary pressure on the global economy.
OMG this is important. Thanks!
That is an impressive essay. Reinsurance verification cost is a phrase that will stick with me.
Interesting article, but I don’t quite get why it would take months to reinstate insurance coverage.
If I understand correctly, the insurers have withdrawn coverage for any ship passing the strait of Hormuz because of the war and the threat of ships being sunk. If the war ended tomorrow there would be no more threat, so couldn’t the insurers just go “strait of Hormuz is now fine, your policy now covers passage there”?
This war will not end cleanly, like WWII with the occupation of the enemy’s capital and installation by the victor of a provisional government. So the insurers will wait until the cessation of hostilities looks durable. That timing is even more in doubt with Israel, which has never respected a ceasefire. At best, they have only paused operations to rest and resupply.
It will take months to reinstate insurance coverage because, as explained by Mr. Perera in impressive detail, insurance coverage has been withdrawn because risk cannot be priced, what he calls an ‘actuarial blockade’ caused by verification costs exceeding transaction value. He maintains that even if the military timeline of a few weeks to a ceasefire occurs, there is no insurance reset button to quickly return to status quo ante. “[R]einsurers must rebuild risk models from scratch incorporating new conflict data. Each vessel seeking Gulf transit must be individually re-underwritten on a voyage-by-voyage basis. Pricing must clear across the entire reinsurance chain, from treaty reinsurer to P&I club to shipowner. Capacity that was withdrawn at the treaty level must be reinstated through negotiation, not announcement. This is a sequential, multi-party process that cannot be compressed by political will, executive order, or diplomatic breakthrough.” He estimates a timeline of six to eighteen months which only starts after hostilities cease. Meanwhile no uninsured vessels will transit the Strait. Mr. Perera also points out that there is no existing government mechanism to backstop this insurance void to shorten the reinstatement period. “When verification costs exceed transaction value in concentrated markets without government backstop, the market does not reprice. It disappears.”
thank you for this. really comprehensive and astute analysis. too many excellent quotes to even bother reproducing. go read!
will add that it makes a very sharp analogy from commercial P&I insurance and the “actuarial blockade” to breakdown of trust and increase of counterparty verification costs thus inverting the economics of interbank lending in september 2008. an inasupicious analogy for sure.
Thank you for posting this. It was very informative.
I had previously posted that the point of leverage for the USA to fix transit of the Straits (if it is willing to burn actual ships but hey at least it was insured, buddy…) is the reinsurers because you only have to worry about the incentives for the reinsurers and contractual fixes for them and a small number of counterparties (the reinsurers and insurers). However, I had no idea that retrocessional insurers exclude war risks, so I had also imagined one could repeat the same trick and just focus on the retro market.
Estimated 10/20 billion stranded north of the straight as of now … would someone please think of all the unsatisfied contracts …. expand that to all the disruption occurring globally ….
Waiting to see if a black box node gets whacked …. built to withstand a nuke or so it was said …
Ahh, that’s where our strategic reserve is.
mrsyk … there is the velocity of money/trade to consider here ….. whack on insurance and wheeeee~~~~
It has been my long held opinion on NC that contracts [See Graeber] proceed everything else – full stop – even from a PK/MMT view. That was the reason I mentioned the financial black box nodes. They record every financial transaction flowing via the digital/internet from all over the world for financial centers as a record. Per se if something untold happens that node has a record of everything before a bad event. Hence lets say Iran when hitting UAE they targeted their node how that would be.
Trump is going to ban LNG and distillates exports too, when SHTF and spot electricity (correlates with spot NG) affects southern A/C bills oand industrial output.
Or maybe Trump will have a Jimmy Carter moment and tell Americans to turn up the A/C thermostat to 85 for Bibi. Now infringing on the Amecian right to have ice cold A/C….that’s what sparks a revolution, lmao
[This comment was removed because it contained AI content]
No one needs AI overviews of anything.
Sadly, this comes up against Google searches, and it turns out I do a lot of that.
As a side note, yesterday I was trying to learn more about the Kurds online and found myself wishing for a library instead of a laptop.
You can set up the Google search in your browser to return “web” answers by default, without the Artificial Information. Google that to find out how :-)
Yes, but I’ve noticed this doesn’t change the links in the search return. Leads me to wonder if there’s any difference except skipping the overview, which I examine, but with a fistful of salt.
I’ve switched to kagi at the recommendation of the excellent Cory Doctorow, and it’s the last subscription I’ll cancel
I very much like Kagi.
Hear, hear.
If you are smart and informed enough to formulate the right questions for AI, as you seem to be, then you don’t need to rely on AI for the answer. It’s a short cut not worth taking, and certainly not worth our time.
Israel water production is ~2 billion cubic meters, ~1.2 billion from freshwater and 0.8 billion from desalination. Freshwater mainly comes from Jordan, Sea of Galilee and Golan Heights and it’s mostly used in agriculture. Desalinated water provides ~90% of Israel’s drinking water.
So the AI is wrong, only ~40% of Israel’s water comes from desalination, but most of its drinking water does. The question is how flexible is the system, can they redirect freshwater from the east to serve coastal cities.
Not just redirecting, is the non desalinated freshwater drinkable or can it be directed into equipment that can process it to make it so?
Even if Trump exits the conflict, though, I don’t see Iran letting them walk away, or reopening the strait. Not unless the retreat comes with serious concessions regarding Israel and the US bases.
Iran had warned everyone about what it planned to do, yet they still got attacked. If they don’t stick to their guns they’re risking another US conclusion that ‘they’re all talk’. Even when Trump did request a ceasefire earlier, Iran quickly shut it down, so it feels to me like all Trump did this time was open Pandora’s box.
This. Iran seems to be in the driver’s seat now.
Trump can exit but that means leaving Israel to twist in the wind.
I can live with that.
It’s the Hotel Qatarfornia …
I just don’t see the USA/Israel giving up the sanctions weapon even if they lose on the battlefield (aka exit the conflict). The straight of Hormuz feels like their only shot at getting sanctions relief which they will need to rebuild after all this bombing, and my guess that boots on the ground in Iran would be to clear the straight (if that’s even possible) so try to take away that card from them.
If Iran were to get sanctions relief, how could Iran depend that the relief would be long term?
Reimposition of the sanctions could occur quickly as the USA is not “agreement capable”.
Trust is difficult to win back once it is lost by repeated untrustworthy actions.
I think thing Iran has going for it is the straight. If the sanctions come back, the straight closes again. If it proves to be as painful as predicted it’s an actual thing that could keep the USA honest.
This may not be a very stable system as shutting down the strait immediately stops the flow of raw materials goods (oil, Sulphur, food) to many nations, some of whom may be uninvolved in the sanctions.
But sanctions relief finished goods flow from the sanctioning countries (medicines, industrial goods, consumer goods, food) might take time to be be manfactured and shipped.
Would the Hormuz strait be shut down until the sanctioned goods were received?
Been thinking of the UN Security Council, if the rules were changed to consensus minus one, then any country blocking resolutions would need to convince one other country. This would eliminate the ridiculous USA veto on everything.
With that eliminated, perhaps UN resolutions would be worth something. An agreement with the usa would be worthless but perhaps a UN resolution, backed by China and Russia (not vetoable by a sole us vote) would provide the confidence needed.
Iran has been pretty clear that their terminal conditions are the US retreat from the gulf and the elimination of the settler colony. They view this as existential.
Meanwhile our warfighters are being told they are going to fight a holy war to make the eschaton imminent. No sarcasm tag.
Not going to be a 4-week war.
Simplicius argues the US fighter jet claimed to be over mountains to the north of Tehran is real, and likely came from the Caspian (Azerbaijan). It’s now being widely reported that Iran has hit targets in Azerbaijan with two Shahed drones – clearly a warning. I do not expect the Azeri pipelines to survive this war.
Rare breakdown of Trump’s political theory.
Excellent analysis!
My first reaction to your comment was: “Trump has a political theory??” But I stand corrected.
Heh. Another, invoking the Bearded One – The World Isn’t Fair
Crowdsourced Editing:
The Tinsdale “Dem Bones” on supply shocks expansively updates the scenario for Countdown to Looking Glass, a less known made-for-TV movie from 1984 about a Cold War standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. C2LG ended with—oh, that would be a spoiler; Tinsdale ends, after Order 12, with a “permanent bureaucracy of geopolitical total war.” Which sounds a lot like—1984. It’s like living in a zombie flick. You think the undead (the deep state? the seven deadlies? DNA?) have been put down at last only to discover—they’re ba-ack. It’s true: A woman’s work is never done. Thank you for the dailies, Yves.
seemingly in those 70’s/80’s books, TV media, the majority of WW3 scenarios started with an Iran, Israel, Saudi-related incident. which always struck me as implausible (versus the Soviets just unilaterally rushing towards Frankfurt)….until now, lmao
time travellers trying to warn us
The MSM propaganda bullhorn is glitching. Read the comments on this NYT piece this morning – dogs not eating the dog food this time:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/business/media/iran-state-tv-social-media-war-ai.html
Iran and Venezuela shared one thing in common, both are longstanding champions of hyperinflation and we’re not talking some crummy little 1 to 2 year gig such as Weimar, or even Mexico’s dozen year bout with hyperinflation, both have been at it for about 4 decades now!
In Iran in 1975, it took 5 Rials to equal a buck, now it’s about a million and half!
In Venezuela in 1980, it took 4 Bolivars to equal a buck, now its 42 million!
Obviously savers in any Dollar form get wiped out if we get the hyperinflation hex, be it savings, stocks, bonds, the gamut.
There aren’t many things to buy that cost a lot aside from real estate, and the blow-out end of the housing bubble would have people desperately getting rid of greenbacks, with nobody holding real estate all that eager to take rapidly depreciating almighty bucks for their goods. but the numbers could get quite bandy, i’m talking $50 million for a domicile now worth a million in LA.
I would argue that a diversified portfolio of the right stocks would be the best hedge against inflation. Ones that represent basic needs. That is, a retreat to gold and bartering potatoes is, I hope, too extreme. If there is any real market economy left those supply chains will represent fair value. I’m waiting until everything is in the toilet to buy but just in case I have planted a lot of potatoes. That is how I look at savings.
I’m thinking more along the lines of availability of consumer goods being scarce ala the USSR, instead of 34 different toothpaste choices, maybe a couple instead.
The bigger move would be psychological, as we’ve made the garnering of as much money as you possibly could, the ne plus ultra of everything that is right and just in the land.
You can’t just take that away rather all of the sudden~
“instead of 34 different toothpaste choices, maybe a couple instead”. This would be the common-sense way of adjusting to shortages and, it too would require a psychological adjustment by most Americans. I am of the school of thought–J M Greer and C H Smith are leading advocates–that we have WAY TOO MUCH STUFF. So much more than is needed for a good life. Whether and how the psychological adjustment will come about in the USA is unknown since the last time widespread economy/frugality happened was about a century ago.
No no no. NO INVESTMENT ADVICE!!!
And yours is bad.
Stocks did horribly during only 7% ish inflation in the 1970s.
Two big reasons:
1. Stock valuations depend on discounting expected future cash flow. At high discount rates, that is bupkis
2. No one trusted financial statements because different line items inflated at different rates and depreciation tax shields were inadequate. Whether to use LIFO or FIFO made a difference.
I named no stocks. I did not give investment advice. I proposed selecting stocks that would perform in a certain situation not the broad market and most important the 70’s was absolutely the best time to buy stocks at a discount when no one realized the future cash flow would be so good. Stocks have always out performed in the long run.
You DID give investment advice. You recommended investing in a diversified portfolio of stocks. And you then conceded that by trying to defend stocks as an investment. Don’t pretend otherwise.
Lats in the 1970s after 7+years of moderate inflation and valuations had become depressed, per the famed Business Week Death of Equities cover story, is not even remotely where we are now. If Volcker had not embarked on his racial experiment of driving policy rates to over 20% to break inflation, which also almost broke the banking system, Lord only knows how long it would have persisted. To suggest that that is remotely comparable to where we are now is also bogus.
In addition, the Tindale article predicted hyperinflation. That is a very dire call but if you buy that forecast, all financial assets will become trash.
Just catching up here. Respectfully:
Analysis is not advice. I made no recommendation. It was simply suggesting that a select basket of stocks would be a good hedge against inflation. Prudent equity ownership is not investment it is savings. As savings stocks are a long duration instrument that has never had a loss over a 20 year time frame, and that was the great depression. What did Warren Buffet say, the ideal holding time for a stock is forever. Citing Volcker is disingenuous. What if something did not happen is a logical vehicle that can be deployed to justify any conclusion imaginable. There are very few blue chip issues bought in the 70’s that haven’t performed well ahead of inflation.
The hyperinflation argument was correctly debunked by Wuk.
1. Stop misrepresenting. This is investment advice. Telling people what asset class to own is undeniably investment advice. Experts like Wilshire charge big bucks to the likes of CalPERS for precisely this sort of recommendation. There are other investment options: bonds, cash, real estate, foreign currencies, foreign bonds, foreign equities.
2. Saying stocks are an inflation hedge is abjectly false and reflects ignorance of investment basics, as in the impact of higher interest rates in discounted cash flow models. You discount free cash flows at a higher rate BOTH due to the risk free rate AND a higher risk premium in a higher interest rate environment.
Stocks performed HORRIBLY during the inflationary 1970s. They did well ONLY when you got in at the end of the period and caught the monster tail wind of the disinflation from 1982 through the 2008 crash. Dismissing the impact of the shift from high inflation to disinflation is a simply shameless misrepresentation. You also would have done very well with less downside then by buying high-grade corporate bonds. They were yielding 13% to 15%. And that was the better play since there was no clarity as to when the high inflation would end.
3. Wuk is not a finance expert. With all due respect, I am. I have had multiple billionaire clients back in the day. My advice to one made over a $2 billion difference in outcomes. I recommended another multi-hundred million investment to another client that produced a 24% compounded annual return over 13 years. Please tell me if you have ever delivered remotely this much in value to clients.
4. The invocation of hyperinflation is a straw man. That was not the basis of my recommendation. However, if the Tindale scenario comes about, we will have hyperinflation. What generates hyperinflation is a very large reduction in real economy productive capacity. That is what Tindale predicts.
re: “No no no. NO INVESTMENT ADVICE!!!”
Absolutely true. I’ll leave a much too long comment about assuming political and financial outcomes on the cutting room floor, as they say.
What’s the old saying? “Past performance is not indicative of future results,…”
Ironically, if the US/World at large had gone full speed ahead with scrapping oil dependence and switching to solar/wind (for energy and transport power), those would be two things Trump wouldn’t have to worry about from the strait being closed.
south korea is going to wish that it didn’t have a nuclear plant moratorium two presidents ago
Fossil fuel dependence is a failure of energy policy and a security risk.
There are reports of Chinese warship yesterday deploying to Persian Gulf to provide escorts to their tankers, so they will at least try. We will se if Israelis dare to go USS Liberty on China.
that tweet got deleted. In my evidence-free opinion, a circle of Twitter is wish-casting their Platonic ideal of a Russo-Sino-Iranian grand alliance against the West onto the present situation.
IMO, China is going to be lower-case-C conservative—even if/when it burns through its strategic hydrocarbon reserves.
China’s drive for high speed rail and vehicle electrification wasn’t just so it could take the lead in yet another technology or cleanup its air.
Yes, there is much propaganda on both sides. Particularly impressive claims on both sides should be met with skepticism until strongly corroborated.
Agreed. That there are deranged leaders with nukes on the pitch is not lost on the Chinese. I will add that, in the end, China would likely prefer to keep the destruction away from her borders, that is, if push comes to shove, we may see the Chinese engage in the Gulf theater.
I don’t really see how China can get more involved even if it wants to. It can’t ship its troops and weapons over to Iran while the US Navy is operating in the vicinity, flying them will burn an awful lot of oil and Iran might soon not have the airfields, and they are vulnerable over land as well. The only way they can help is if they have some Deus ex machina oreshnik type missile that they’re willing to use to strike enemy targets
Please listen to Alistair Crooke on Nima or the Judge. Or listen to Carl Zha on Rachel Blevins. China has been flying in weapons large C-31 equivalent airframes multiple per day for months. They can fly over the Caspian and there is nothing the US navy, 1200 miles distant from Iran, can do. Do you really think militaries worry about the cost of fuel? Iran has been preparing for this for 20 years – you do not think they stockpiled drone components in their underground missile cities since June 2025?
In any case, Iran needs most is satellite ISR and advanced radar & operators – it doesn’t need Chinese troops to repel the small expeditionary force the US could put together in a few months in Azerbaijan (that could never cross the mountains). It also needs China NOT to sell to the US MICC rare earths.
Without radar and interceptor missiles, and the US is rapidly getting blinded, you do not need an oreshnik, a shahed will do.
Yes. Although this doesn’t address getting more involved, it’s good to understand that there is considerable involvement already. From comments yesterday, China’s satellites over West Asia: A silent shield for Iran, the Cradle, hat tip Xiaolei Mu.
I have no idea how to confirm the content, but I’ve found the Cradle to be a good source in the past. There’s considerable detail and I highly recommend five minutes on this.
Carl Zha’s mate Brian Berletic has a good video out a couple of days ago on the real world limits on Chinese intervention and also what they have already been doing.
https://youtu.be/HMQQr-St-08
By the way, I hope Brian is OK. He seems to have lost a lot of weight.
Between the lies on one hand and the wishful thinking on the other, it’s hard to tell what’s really going on as of now. It may take a couple more weeks to get a clearer picture.
From the underlying Tindale essay, which goes into the causes and effects of each major breakdown:
Fertilizer Shocks: With 40% to 50% of the world’s internationally traded nitrogen-based fertilizers originating from or passing through the Gulf, a Hormuz closure dictates an immediate, violent spike in agricultural input pricing. This mathematically guarantees elevated global food prices within a single harvest cycle.
As more than one person here in the highly productive Undisclosed Region has told me, agriculture is the base of everything. Computer chips are flashy. Wheat harvests are necessities.
Even a highly productive region like my own region in Italy is not self-sufficient in foodstuffs. And the Italian food distribution system is a marvel compared to what I saw in the US of A — you’d think that Chicago of all places would have been better. Yet Italy is not self-sufficient in wheat.
No wonder Yves Smith and Aurelien are jumpy. And now, so am I.
I’m noticing much more citrus on the ground in front of orange trees than usual in some large orchards around these parts.
There is always some fruit on the ground, but this to me speaks more of the fear of ICE raiding you on-the-job. Its also indicative that the fruit is pretty ripe when you see 34 golden orbs on the ground below 1 tree.
Once you get below the citrus belt, its a world of primarily almond trees, a luxury food almost all destined for export. And almonds take prep to make them edible, all I have to do is stop the jalopy and go pick up a handful of oranges on the ground, ready-to-eat.
A little over a century ago, where many present orchards are now, were vast fields of wheat.
I’m not aware of anything other than large Marge farming here, and its always mono crops-the orchards.
There are no dairy operations with 235 head, think more in the realm of 6,000 to 7,000 Bessies.
In comparison, I saw hundreds of fairly self-sufficient farms in southern Utah, where hay was grown adjacent to cow pastures.
I just came back from travel in the Imperial Valley of Southern California – if you want to view the parched terminus of then American Dream, check out the towns on or near the Salton Sea – and reading just now about a “permanent bureaucracy of geopolitical total war” leads me to wonder about the future of those immense alfalfa fields I saw in the desert…
It seems like everything is compelled by delusion, twisted, insatiable appetites, folly and endgame physics.
Is it called “poetic justice” or “payback is a bitch” now that Houthi seem to be in control of the food flow to Saudi-Arabia?
Isn’t Russia one of the biggest exporters of fertilizer, and one that doesn’t export through the Straits, to boot?
So was the Ukraine. But Russia is “sanctioned” now, so their fertilizer is going, elsewhere, (China?) The Ukraine’s fertilizer exports have been curtailed by the war.
Subsistence farming is hard work. The surpluses are not as much per acre as for industrial farming. Smaller farms will mean smaller populations. The Jackpot is not evenly distributed.
Russia is a major supplier to India and Brazil in particular. They are one of the few countries with the capacity to increase overall outputs.
There has been a steady, consistent drop in Nitrogen use in fertilizer in the EU over the past two decades or so, mostly due to rising costs, stricter environmental rules, and better husbandry practices, with a particular drop since 2017 and a sharper dip in 2023 due to rising prices. It hasn’t impacted on yields due to the now widespread use of legumes and other methods for increasing nitrogen levels naturally. Fortunately, farmers are learning how to do more with less.
In my experience, farmers tend to hold quite substantial stockpiles of nitrogen as they purchase opportunistically when prices drop (the mostly assume long term increases). Since around 2023, EU farmers have to declare stockpiles of fertilizers and animal medicines on an annual basis at the end of the season, so national governments in the EU will have a good knowledge of just how much is on hand, but so far as I’m aware, nobody has made this information available in aggregate on any public record. Anecdotally, most farmers will have the best part of a years fertilizer on hand in storage. From past experience, farmers in northern latitudes tend to quite rapidly transition from dairy to beef use if input costs rise, but its much harder to switch to and between arable crops.
So my guess is that even a catastrophic drop in nitrogen use would not have an immediate serious impact – there is sufficient buffering in the system for most crops in northern latitudes (I don’t know much about those places with nice climates). Very significant drops in output would take several years to work their way through the food system. A good time to invest in kitchen stocks of some mature hard cheese perhaps.
That seems to be contradicted by this video….or perhaps a difference in EU v. US practices?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpMTUsTxhEU
Contra to your above points, there is great concern in Ireland, Britain, and elsewhere about the catastrophically wet winter causing significant leaching of water soluble nutrients, including nitrogen and potassium, from the soil profile. Arable will be impacted heavily, but leaching will even affect forage quality, raising concerns of grass staggers due to nutrient insufficiency in this seasons forage growth.
Nobody is concerned about leaching in permanent pasture Devon. I think these concerns must be in farming areas where they sow temporary grass or herbal leys and plaster them with fertiliser to push the grass – which all runs off into the local rivers and estuaries anyway. Bluntly, if this kind of farming shrinks, it’s bad for consumer prices but better in the long run.
I don’t understand your comment, PK, about rapid switching from dairy to beef. There are huge switching costs. A dairy operation has high fixed costs (new dairy plus infrastructure = £1m!) and younstill have to pay those but off beef income. A dairy farm is also a labour intensive farm, with the cows in sheds much if the year and requiring mucking out etc.
Plus a dairy herd is not fungible with a beef herd: you can put the milking cows to a beef bull and sell beef cross calves and hope to get a decent price for them (but less than you would get with a pure beef carcase for conformation etc) but if you do this for more than a season or two, you will hurt the dairy genetics of the female calves if you keep them for replacement or you will build up a debt of heifers to purchase when you resume dairying. And the dairy cows won’t tolerate well being ranched and outwintered but will want premium imported (from off the farm, if not actual Brazilian soya) fodder and keeping indoors.
In short, switching to beef from dairy is a desperate measure except at the margins of the revenue mix (there’s always some beef because half the calves are never cut out for milking!) because you earn beef income on dairy costs (and suckler calf beef income at that: if you keep them to finish as 3yr beef cattle, you have moved from annual to two or three year cycle, with no money for a year or two and one third the output because you have to keep three years’ cows on the same land).
The switch the other way is impossible. No beef herd can jump into dairy, there’s the £1m parlour, the feed silos, the slurry pit, the cattle tracks, the sheds etc. Even if you already run an intensive beef operation with sheds and slurry pits, rather than out wintering and bale grazing, you would still need specialist labour and a mobile milking bail and, showstopper!, a herd of cows with good milk production and milking temperament and parlour training….
Having been kicked once by a Jersey cow when the late father-in-law tried to teach me how to hand milk a cow, (much hilarity ensued amongst the onlookers,) “parlour training” is important.
Stay safe. Keep on Bessie’s “good side.”
The Diesen interview with Wilkerson is one of Wilkerson’s best, and is pretty scary. It’s scary not just because we find out that Israel is moving, and possibly uploading its nuclear weapons, but because Wilkerson drives home the notion that the US just does not understand the character of the war it chose to begin. He comes back to the theme of incomprehension over and over, in convincing fashion. To listen to this makes me, at least, meditate on the ways that total incomprehension can lead to insanity.
Somehow over the course of the evening, looking at other reports, I added a theme to Wilkerson’s argument: We may be lying about casualties: We admit to 3 (now 6) casualties, but Iran, the IRGC, estimates 560 American casualties. Here is a report that foregrounds the descrepancy: “560 US Soldiers hit?”, by Money over history. Also: The US is recruiting people to go through the personal effects of the dead at Dover: https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/03/04/2126585.html (I got the latter link from a comment at MOA)
it makes more sense when you remember how power really works (and the Epstein files gave us a glimpse into that) and that Trump’s duty is not to his country but to his bosses. The US is just the vessel by which he is carrying out his bosses’ orders. This war is not supposed to benefit the US, which is the instrument, but the stakeholders.
I’m beginning to see a similarity in the war in the Ukraine and the war on Iran. Over the past four years the Russians have managed to successfully demilitarize most of the NATO nations and those stockpiles may never be replenished. I think that the same is happening with the US & Israel in the Middle East. All those stockpiles of anti-air missiles are about to go Winchester and maybe Tomahawk missiles as well. The production of Patriot missiles is only about 700 max a year and are being used up like they are going out of style. The production of THAAD missiles is even slower and each of those missiles cost about $13 million each. And at least two THAAD systems have been nailed by the Iranians. Trump may talk about a forever war but the meter is ticking to when the US& Israel will be defenseless. I’m sure that both Russia and China are watching this development. I was going to say that rearming will take many years but since the Chinese have slammed the door shut on refined rare earths, maybe those weapons will never be restocked. In passing, the US and Israel claim many successful strikes on Iranian military equipment but it is not always necessarily so-
https://xcancel.com/Iranmilitary24/status/2029108200470135270#m
Eu may be just about ready to accept Russia as the leader of eu/west Asia as they become desperate for fossil. Can’t see that war lasting much longer.
My time in service predates THAAD, but a simple rule is whenever it’s announced that an entire weapons system has to be relocated it indicates that the problem is with the launchers, not the number of missiles.
The US has plenty of short-range munitions if it’s willing to fly over Iran. Presumably in F-35’s & B-2’s but maybe in older planes if Iran’s air defense is scanty enough. Can the Empire keep the airfields operating and tolerate the occasional loss? I have no idea…
Wilkerson in the Diesen chat precisely answered a question I put in comments to yesterday’s Iran war post. Can China or Russia torpedo a ship and the targeted navy doesn’t know who did it? Yes. Yes they can.
In yesterday’s news, US torpedoed an Iranian navy ship off Sri Lanka. That seems to open the scope of operations. Wilkerson also talked about the trilateral defense agreement. So retaliation from China or Russia could be covert.
With Tindale on top of Wilkerson I’m getting the heebeejeebees.
Btw, Yves, typo in the name in your first sentence: Tindale not Tinsdale.
Bye bye, Charles DeGaulle? I don’t know where the French will be sending the ship exactly or the capability of its escorts, but they seem to stick out as a particularly useful a target.
Some updates:
BBC live blog flags that Starmer is making an address to the UK about the Iran war. Wake me when it is over.
The lack of agency in the current headline “….new air strikes reported across region” points to lack of US/Israel primacy.
Other entries:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c62gg44d53xt
Looks like UAE doesn’t need Ukie help: it’s doing the same tricks fine by itself. (I guess Ukies would have claimed nothing got through, maybe?)
That Ukie help was not going to be for free. In exchange, Zelensky wanted anti-air missiles for his remaining Patriot batteries.
Diesel in California is average $5.42 Reg. is 4.73 and going up every day.
https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=CA
It looks like the highest fuel prices in the nation, even higher than Hawai’i.
That Tindale piece. Wow.
I am shook. That’s one of the most sobering things I’ve ever read.
I had some stuff about the war to say, but it seems trivial now.
In reading it and then thinking about the “Armageddon” scenario military members have been complaining about, perhaps this type of chaos is the plan of Israel and the US Epstein Class. That, and/or manufacturing consent for a nuclear device to be used on Iran.
Nate Hagens just posted an interview of Tindale along with Craig Evermore, a financial analyst in Singapore. In it, Tindale talks about the need to go through the five stages of grief for our current system. “There’s a big change coming, and we can’t stop it.”
Hagens has been talking to the smartest people in the world for the past four years. This is another example.
So the wheels are going to shortly start to come off the bus of the global economy; that’s gonna be fun. Talk about complex systems and unintended consequences.
This timeline is stupid.
NC’s discourse continues to be the best around. Kudo’s to all.
For a snapshot of just how deeply ingrained global ocean transport is in our consumer society, highly recommend this book from a few years back:
https://www.amazon.com/Ninety-Percent-Everything-Shipping-Invisible/dp/0805092633
“The Stupidest Time-Line” would be a fit name for a geopolitical/geo-economic commentary ‘blog
‘Wilkerson points out that the deemed-essential level for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at about 412 million barrels, when 500 million is the supposed minimum “essential” level.’
Don’t forget that the US uses about 20 to 21 million barrels of oil a day. At that rate, that could all be used up in about 3 weeks. Odd and even number plates anybody?
Nah, it’s back to the lockdowns, those dropped fuel consumption in the US by 20%.
To plausibly reintroduce lockdowns, the Elect will need a new pandemic to “emerge.” My money is on Bird Flu 2.0.
Who knows what “they” have in storage on Plum Island.
Stay safe. Keep masking.
From the Tindale piece: “The absolute maximum nominal hydraulic drawdown capability is strictly capped at 4.4 million bpd.” So, it would last longer than 3 weeks, but your conclusion is still correct.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/watch-ex-marine-brian-mcginnis-dragged-out-of-senate-after-anti-iran-war-outburst-senator-tim-sheehy-seen-assisting/ar-AA1XxKs9
This was really heart breaking
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/no-one-wants-to-fight-for-israel-ex-mariner-dragged-out-of-us-senate-arm-broken-for-anti-israel-protest
Expect this to be widely shared all over the world.
My God, you can hear his bone breaking in the video….
Hero.
Breaking McGuiness’ arm was stupid, astoundingly so.
The USMC is the most respected branch of the US Military which is partly due to PR, but largely due to their performance over 250 years.
Every Marine will see that clip or hear of it within a day.
Deploying the US Military domestically just became much more problematic.
I couldn’t watch more than a bit, like the Pretti videos – it’s just too much to take.
Utterly disgusting that this happened, and this is a rightfully terrible look. I hope he recovers fully, and the people responsible are punished.
That’s what we call “democracy and freedom” in the USA. Yes it is disturbing, but not surprising. Abusing senior citizens and veteran intelligence professionals is standard procedure.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/IBktjDNpEeE
SOP for the protectors of the Epstein Class. I am sure McGinnis is not the first.
Ray McGovern of Veteran Intelligence Professionals For Sanity was dragged out bloodied from a Hillary Clinton speaking event in 2011 (as Clinton watched from the stage) — she was denouncing political repression in brutal dictatorships– for silently standing up with his back turned towards her. He didn’t get roughed up when he was hauled off to jail for simply trying to attend a David Petraeus speech — for which he had a ticket — and had to spend the night in jail. In 2018 he seems to have had a shoulder dislocated when he rose to shout in protest during the confirmation hearings of CIA torture perpetrator Gina Haspel for CIA Director.
I know plenty of people subjected to police menacing and harassment during DC protests — our rulers don’t take kindly to being personally and publicly confronted with peaceful protest. That is one reason I found the police inaction leading up to the January 6 protests strange, as if somebody decided to let it happen.
Iran allowing Chinese ships: I clicked through the NDTV link and didn’t find anything more than “Iran has said”. I haven’t seen any official type statements about this. You’d think it could be sourced to a Ministry or and official twitter account or something. The Houthis were able to be selective about their strait, so maybe Iran will eventually, but for now I think it’s made up to sow division.
Submarine attack: does the attacking sub have any responsibility or expectation to offer help after the ship is sunk and there are no threats?
Price of gas: The gas station on my corner has went from $2.74 on day 1 to $3.14 yesterday. An increase, yes, but I usually wouldn’t have noticed.
Regarding the submarine attack, thus says the Second Geneva Convention:
And this is what United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea says:
In fairness, the US did demonstrate compassion in its own fashion. We didn’t call in air strikes to finish off the survivors and then use the video of that as well to further brag about our greatness. As Trump said, we follow our our moral compass; we don’t need no stinkin’ international laws!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconia_incident
Even the Germans during WW2 would pick up survivors following U-boat attacks. However when the survivors were being rescued and collected by the U-boats after an attack on the Laconia, a US bomber was given the order to attack the U-boats even though it was known that they were rescuing survivors under Red Cross banners. Many survivors were killed and the U-boats abandoned all rescue efforts to dive and escape. The Laconia Order was then issued which forbade any further rescue efforts during the war and opened the door to unrestricted submarine warfare. No American was ever punished for this and even Donitz was not punished for this specifically during the Nuremberg trials.
Who knows what the Iranians will do after this
Several years ago, I submitted a comment claiming that if the usa would turn fascist, the americans would make the germans look like pikers. I pointed out, that in my opinion, the history of the states was far more violent and racist than germany; indeed, that the german nazis had modeled many of their programs from american practice. The comment wound up, I guess, in lala land, chafing at the bit. BTW, I had a sneaky suspicion that what’s happening today was even predictable. Wow, maybe we ain’t seen nothing yet.
Many thanks, leaf, for the information.
Wrt subs, not if the sunk ship is a warship and there is a state of war, I think, although the latter is the good question now.
The US congress has not declared war. The president has not canceled / imprisoned / obliterated Congress and then declared war himself.
Remember that the Roman Senate continued for centuries after the Republic collapsed.
PS. Most international conventions pertsin to civilians, I think, not warships.
Thank you for the replies.
submarine attack: Indi.ca had similar points to make about the submarine on his latest post.
Iran allowing Chinese ships: Today al mayadeen has an article with the paragraph: “The IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control and warned that vessels linked to the United States, Israel, and European countries would not be permitted to pass through the strategic waterway.” which sounds a little closer to from an official source.
I believe the Second Geneva Convention of 1949 mandates the protection, rescue, and humane treatment of wounded or shipwrecked enemy sailors at sea.
But this is a Holy War, and we are the Righteous Barbarians.
Hey, WJ, your phrasing struck me, and I wrote a short song using it: https://vickycookies.substack.com/p/patriotic-war-song
Thanks!
Clips from @ParsToday Russian Telegram
Damage in Bahrain
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195321
Iranian UAV blows up against tanker hull
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195328
Drone punched a hole in U-2 hangar at RAF Akrotiri
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195324
Here’s a companion piece to the Tindale article:
https://un-denial.com/2026/03/05/cactus-view-of-the-iran-war/
Thanks, that was a good read.
That and the Tindale piece, along with Gail Tverberg’s work, lead me to a disturbing thought. I know that at least speaking for myself, I tend to frame these wars as “madmen at work.” Our so-called leaders are crazy.
Or just evil. Every time we try and elect someone with a different approach, they turn into a warmongering lunatic bent on destroying the world economy.
But what if there is a method to their madness? Perhaps they’ve gotten the memo that peak oil, natural resource depletion, and overpopulation aren’t just a bunch of bunk? The world only has so many years left, and they’re executing a barbaric but necessary strategy, like rats in a cage fighting over the last few pieces of cheese.
No one got a memo, I think it’s good old fashioned AI, that is Algorithmic Institutions: corporations, stock markets, central banks, and financial institutions of all kinds that structure recursive the decisions of the population that inhabits them (that the system itself selects) around feedbacks sustaining ROI.
That all of these institutions are built around the reproduction of money wealth means that they are all systemically aligned in the interest of money, which is, after all, the root of all evil. He wasn’t joking: the valuation of money over every form of life but one’s own is the abyss from which we are governed by a class of people selected by that system.
Their interest are all brought into alignment by the architecture of these interlocking institutions all aligned with the root of all evil.
What if …
was the first thing I thought last year when DOGE, the ICE swarms, and tariff trade wars began. My phrasing at the time –
“They used to pretend the hotel we were all staying at isn’t actually engulfed in flames, but rather than acknowledge it, they instead decided to simply pull out guns and shoot everyone in their way while hauling everything of any value along with them on the escape route. “
My thoughts precisely.
Concerns about US military “magazine depth” and supply of interceptors and other missiles are apparently unfounded.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/04/us-interceptors-iranian-drones
According to Chair of the Joint Chiefs
“…We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” Caine said at a news conference at the Pentagon on Wednesday morning…”
I’m sure he would never lie or mislead the public eh
That man’s reputation is spent. That, under Caine’s guidance, we have firmly planted both feet in a steaming pile is readily apparent.
Thanks for the Tindale article, and thank you NC for your consistently excellent coverage of this unholy mess.
I think we can safely conclude that the Pax Americana ended in 2026, after an 81-year run (fans of The Fourth Turning will nod knowingly).
The Yankees sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, and a Russian LNG tanker was sunk near Malta. These two actions were almost unimaginable just a short time ago, are now normalized (there’s been surprisingly little outcry), and set a dreadful precedent going forward. What’s to stop the Russians from launching sea drones on LNG tankers heading for Lithuania and Poland? What’s to stop the Chinese from whacking the next USA/UK/Australian warship performing a silly freedom of navigation stunt near Taiwan? We are sleepwalking toward global chaos (I don’t yet forecast WW3, just raw chaos), but the financial markets are pretty sanguine. So far, anyway.
If the Iran war drags on, there’s a decent chance of seeing nukes being used in anger for the first time since 1945. And I cannot help but wonder if Iran doesn’t already have a few of its own by now. They have the enriched uranium and the rocket technology, and with some discreet foreign assistance in recent months may have managed to mount a few untested devices onto long-range missiles. Only one of them needs to function properly, given Israel’s size. Just spitballing.
Project Ukraine is likely finito. The Pentagon will have little weaponry to spare for the eastern front. Zelensky can comfort himself with the knowledge that he isn’t the first loyal ally to be thrown under the bus by the Yankees. And certainly not the last: the hapless Kurds are lining up once again, like Charlie Brown, to kick Lucy’s football. Some people just don’t learn.
Amidst all the depressing news, we can be grateful to the Russians for a touch of black humor. As Qatari LNG goes dark and the Europeans start mumbling about maybe resuming natgas imports from Russia (and rumors start to swirl about re-opening NordStream), Putin drops a bomb:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-suggests-russia-could-stop-supplying-gas-european-markets-now-2026-03-04/
Touché.
Do we go right from Pax Americana to Mad Max Americana all in one fell swoop?
It’s that other 81 year run since Nagasaki that gives me agita…
Just to note that Tel Aviv airport is reopening, inbound passengers only at one flight per hour initially.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/first-repatriation-flights-to-tel-aviv-set-to-arrive-as-airspace-partially-reopens/amp/
Surprising that it is limited to only bringing people back into the theater of war and not out. Obviously to limit numbers of people within the airport itself and not become an even bigger target. Looking to a return to normalcy but putting commercial planes and 200 onboard at great risk. Hopefully not an accident waiting to happen.
So, they will be as empty coming in as going out. Who in their right mind (oh, wait?) will fly to Israel right now?
My sweet summer child, it is nothing to do with limiting crowds.
It is to limit outflows of conscriptable Israelis, who would otherwise flee Gehenna.
And the inbound aeroplanes are presumably for recalled reservists, spooks, special forces and Third Temple chiliasts.
RJ mentioned this in yesterday’s thread. I was pretty surprised that there are people coming back at a time like this, but apparently, there are quite a few.
exactly this.
and as of 9:29 GMT Israeli media reporting that Ben Gurion hit by Iranian missiles. – source the Aljazeera breaking news feed.
i cant find any commentary on the damage though.
Some fresh tidbits:
Someone at the Guardian has read this NC post, or the linked Tindale article:
Globalisation is under threat from Iran war – and Britain is uniquely vulnerable
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/05/globalisation-under-threat-britain-economy-iran-conflict
One thing I learned from the sanctions fiasco surrounding Russia/Ukraine is that oil is fungible. Countries that sanctioned themselves from buying Russian oil directly bought it indirectly through more complicated supply chains perhaps involving mixing with less politically naughty oil.
Isn’t something similar likely to emerge if Iran allows Chinese tankers but not others?
Did you read the post? There is no evidence that that is happening. In addition, Alexander Mercouris described long form yesterday how China does not appear to be seeking that but instead wants an end to the conflict.
I wonder how China expects to achieve this. If it twists Iran’s arm to accept a ceasefire, then it falls the next time US/Israel bomb its demoralized population and China then loses its reliable supplier of energy and crucial link in the BRI.
I don’t see any evidence that this is happening. China is making pious statements about needing to stop hostilities, which is a coded way to tell the US to call the dogs off.
China may have big enough stockpiles and enough other kind or really important to the US players in the line of an oil/gas price increase line of fire so as to sit back, wait for the pain level to rise, and for the US to be forced to retreat. Or as with Liberation Day, that that pain will lead to Mr. Market disciplining Trump.
Mercouris seems to not have engaged the understanding of the conflict held by people like Wilkerson, Ritter, Marandi and others. In their view this is Israel’s make-or-break moment, and that’s reflected in Iran’s strategy to fatally undermine the US-Israel coalition. Not doing so just kicks the can down the road, they will not repeat of the mistake of last July.
Mercouris also seems to ignore how the gangsterism of the US and Israel, including the murder of political leaders and negotiators, must be shaping the thinking of China and Russia, the latter having seen two assassination attempts against Putin. China may be making pious statements, but they and the Russians must be considering ways of using the conflict to break up the neocon coalition. What, for example, do they make of rising anti-Zionist sentiment, especially in the Republican party? Wouldn’t it be advantageous to them to not try to override Iran’s apparent aim to drive the confrontation ahead and increase public opposition to neocon warmongering?
And thank you, Yves, for making this discussion possible. Let a 1000 Naked Capitalisms bloom.
Mercouris is good at parsing official and diplomatic statements, and he keeps on top of them over time, so his take on China’s remarks is within his wheelhouse.
The rumor I read is that us wanted to stop, Iran refused. So maybe China is pushing Iran to make a deal on account they want stability/don’t want worldwide recession, especially given they’re deflating? But if they did, wouldn’t this just be another 12-day? And try again in October, in time to delay or influence midterm?
Imo it only stops if Iran drives us out of the gulf and maybe disarms, or at least seriously degrades, israel military. And the whole Muslim world wants the genocide stopped.
Afaik Iran hasn’t hit elect gen/desal/turkey pipeline, maybe worried about nuke response. But Hezbollah could do it, israel not gonna nuke Lebanon, and they seem to be meeting resistance with ground invasion.
Indeed, China wants Pax Alia (i.e. somebody else is hegemom, with the attendant costs) so China can import and export.
Russia is practically an autarchy and by shutting the Straits, Iran gives Russia superpowers of negotiation with anybody requiring oil, gas and petrochemicals (including fertiliser).
On one level, this makes Russia Iran’s natural sponsor in prolonging the war but may make China Iran’s (and Russia’s) best sponsor of peace. Ultimately, the USA will vacate the Gulf and Europe on China and Russia’s terms, if it does not start WW3.
I thought so but evidently that didn’t sink in. Please may I blame the afore mentioned heebeejeebees after starting the day with Tindale?
Thanks again Yves for posting this important information and updating. It looks like you don’t get much sleep. So much to process, so many variables and volatility. We do live in some interesting times.
For a bit of light (unintended) humor I could not help but laugh when I saw this.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-says-he-wants-to-be-involved-in-selecting-irans-next-leader-khameneis-son-a-lightweight/
Trump himself has said that people that he would have liked to see become leader of Iran have already been killed by he and Israel. Earlier mentioned too that with a future Iranian negotiating team, that a lot of them have already been killed by him. Does he even listen to himself?
Re: Tweet about Israel as information blackout zone. Some back-up data points:
During Twelve-Day War, Israeli military censor classified selected social media posts as criminal acts. Criminal social media posts included footage of missile strikes in Israel not submitted to censor for approval: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250619-israel-tightens-rules-against-documentation-of-iranian-missile-attacks/
Since start of Operation Epic Fury, this censorship of missile strikes in Israel has been extended to foreign media outlets: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-858423
Looks like police not afraid to make arrests:
https://tps.co.il/articles/lod-resident-arrested-for-social-media-posts-supporting-iran/
Information blackout on Iranian missile strikes has propaganda value in itself. If the strikes are not seen, then they can be denied. US objective of missile suppression can simply move to media suppression of missile attacks – an easier task.
Yesterday a commenter noted that “I have friends and family in Tel Aviv, they assure me it’s not that bad”
To what extent are Israelis self-censoring their private communications in Palantir’s mass surveillance ecosystem? How do we know that friends and family in Tel Aviv haven’t been thoroughly intimidated to the point that they won’t even speak openly in private communications, let alone social media posts?
IMHO this is the ultimate goal of the surveillance state–self-imposed discipline and control on the individual level, no actual enforcement needed. Just the assurance that Big Brother sees all.
That was garden variety hasbara. I provided contradictory evidence from Steve Bannon and an interviewee, both of whom said they had a lot of contacts in Tel Aviv and they were saying it was really bad there.
Palantir doesn’t operate in that way in Israel. Israel doesn’t need it; it has extensive domestic surveillance through multiple internal security agencies (Shin Bet most prominently).
The rate of major waves of strikes does appear to have tapered off compared to the first couple of days. I personally think this is due to third party backchannel negotiations to temporarily reopen airspace to allow evacuations and repatriations (not really to/from Israel, although they are taking part in it, but for the many other countries impacted). I do not think this quasi-lull will hold more than 5-7 days at most.
The Israelis I interact with daily (professional contacts) are absolutely not intimidated by the surveillance or what is happening. They believe they are in the right and they will be victorious. They believe the lull is because they are winning.
There has been an exceptionally high rate of background violence and disruption within the ‘nice’ parts of Israel for decades that kicked into high gear the last few years. Alerts to take shelter have also been a common and regular feature. When talking to an individual or even a group of individuals, they can say – and believe! – that what is happening now is not really a big deal because it is not really a change from what they’ve been dealing with for years so the “temporary” fear and uncertainty of this phase is worth it.
But compared to life in 99% of the rest of the world, including other high violence areas like the United States, it is crazy and untenable. In my opinion it is this split in experience that drives comments like that yesterday vs comments from high level observers like this site. Like I said yesterday, both views can be right simultaneously. This does not mean both are correct, it’s a difference of short term vs long term perspective.
A point has been made that Iran has now destroyed most of the US “early warning” radars in the Gulf region, so instead of the earlier 10-15 minute warning Israel now gets mere 1-2 minute warning of incoming missiles. It follows that Iran needs to shoot less missiles to achieve same or better rate of penetration.
There were just multiple videos of Ben Gurion airfield getting hit with 80 submunitions of a Khorramshahr-4 missile. It still counts as one missile.
Actually, as a side note, it seems almost as if Iran is now targeting the airfields and air bases of the region. Are we going to see how missiles can win air-supremacy?
I’ve had discussions with one of them, when he was visiting the US, to the effect that I often appear to be better informed in the moment when it comes to what is happening there vis-a-vis the missiles. He didn’t disagree. They know they’re under censorship. The question here is why do normal people on the ground in Tel Aviv make statements like ‘things are normal here’ or take work zoom calls from sitting on their back deck like I did today with a colleague or take their children to street parties despite the shelter in place orders ongoing like apparently hundreds were doing yesterday despite what we read and understand to be happening from our high level view on the outside. It’s because while our high level, uncensored view shows the rate of hits and dramatic strikes from a longer perspective, they’re in short term, close perspective view on the ground where simple lived experience rule and so far there hasn’t been enough visible intercept failures in densely populated areas to make it clear how serious this is. Nobody lives at Ben Gurion, so even if it takes a direct hit (wouldn’t be the first time) as long as they can resume flights relatively soon or give a plausible reason for why not and it stays off the local news, calm can be maintained.
The first 30 mins of Nadav Lapid’s new film YES (2025) explores this.
Thanks for reminder!
Have you seen it? I haven´t yet. Nowadays Quinzaine stuff and outside main competition is really hard to get by.
Saw it in a theater, yes. Very hard hitting. Audience was stunned silent when the lights came up.
Lots to say about this film (it was clearly inspired by Szabó’s Mephisto), tho I sense YES is primarily intended for Israelis who believe the war doesn’t really have anything to do with them.
One of my colleagues, a Lebanese who grew up in early 1980s Beirut, described how “normally” everyone behaved at that time even though the situation was decidedly not normal. I think that’s kinda built jnto human psyche once “not normal” situstion has persisted for some extended time.
Another possibly useful reference here is “hypernormalization” per Alexei Yurchak, and there is the 2016 documentary by Adam Curtis that considers the concept in relation to the West.
Satellite photos don’t lie and it is a wonder that other countries do not release much more of them. Or are they waiting for the right moment to do so en masse.
Israeli military censorship is an understandable precaution for them.
But western press silence about the censorship is an editorial decision to provide favorable coverage for Israel. When you only report damage on one side, it necessarily misrepresents the state of combat. A first step away from being Israeli propaganda would be to provide a disclaimer giving notice that reporting is being done under censorship — and we’re not getting that. I find the message discipline impressive; it must take a lot of work to keep the spineless editors riding herd on the hapless reporters.
The editors have been in the bag for many years now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird
One thing to note is how large and vast Greater Tehran is – its population is 14 million (assume 1 million residential buildings and another million business buildings) covering 2235 km2. Including satellite cities, it covers 9500 km2. Dr. Marandi has talked about
For reference, Gaza is 365 km2, and it took years to destroy Gaza – and this from walking distance, not 1000 km distant, requiring multiple refueling to fire standoff munitions from airframes with horrid maintenance requirements and an inability to make new parts due to the Chinese rare earth MICC embargo.
If the Nw tip of Iran was overlaid onto Portland, OR, the SE tip would hit the NM-TX border.
Iran is a family-blogging big place. the being-surrounded-by-other-countries/optical illusion/visual processing of the Mercator map makes Iran look deceptive inconsequentially small.
Iran (1,648,000 km2) is over twice as large as Texas (696,000 km2) or slightly smaller than Alaska (1,718,000 km2)!
it’s not a country you can take over after only a few weeks.
Trump says he needs to be involved in selecting Iran’s next leader, Axios reports
By Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-he-needs-be-involved-selecting-irans-next-leader-axios-reports-2026-03-05/
On The Hill and I assume all MSM by now
I can’t even….
Didn’t the US jump all over the Chinese government because it wanted to select the next Dalai Lama and Catholic Bishops/Cardinal for China?
The Trump supporters I talk to think he’s gone mad as a hatter and are aghast at what they’re seeing. Buyers remorse, almost to a person (save the accelerationist who argues that only after an American collapse can a new style Jeffersonian democratic republic arise, to which I gently chide him as a modern day All American “Ghost Dancer.”)
I hope he picks Guaido. Trump really owes him one.
But then Machado would be upset. At least she gave Trump her NPP.
” … and the worms ate into his brain”
Roger Waters/Pink Floyd
At this point I would suggest that Trump figure out how to get refined REEs, gallium, and every other critical supply that America currently sources from China to (unpolitely put it) fly out of his a$$. America doesn’t need anything from Iran, has never needed anything from Iran.
I, on the other hand, will have to approve the specific monkey that flys out of his a$$ along with everything else that America really needs. (Which is as about as realistic and required as what he demanded – maybe he needs to start thinking about what America needs to survive, not what his ego requires.)
Perhaps the Iranians need to use trolling of Trump, at least as a way to maintain humor as a sliver of sanity. This headline, which I just made up, would suffice.
“The President of Iran states that he needs to be involved in selecting the needed replacement for Donald Trump.”
My apologies to all the commentariat – I just couldn’t resist saying that.
Maybe Congress needs to whip out the 25th and be involved in selecting the next leader of the US?
I haven’t read all the comments, but one point that seems worth considering, another elephant in the room, is the petro-dollar.
Unless the US has effective control of the Persian Gulf, there is little reason for the world energy markets to be priced in dollars. Which is one more large nuclear bomb in the current financial system.
File under Making Shit Up:
The popular evangelical belief in the Rapture is a relatively recent invention, not an ancient teaching passed down through centuries. It has a specific historical origin and a clear paper trail.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/175689#
Anyone who’s actually read the bloody book – well, granted, New Testament is less bloody – would know that there’s no such thing as Rapture at all in it. I mean, you can read the whole Revelations, in the original Greek just to be sure, and wonder which kind of deluded idiot came up with something like that, when the actual official blueprint for the End Times has nothing at all about it, but plenty about death and misery for literally everyone – I mean, pretty much all “good guys” true believers are supposed to die gruesomely before Jesus comes back and kicks ass.
If I see an American idiot blabbering about Rapture, I know he hasn’t read the Bible seriously and hasn’t the faintest clue about his supposed religion.
I read it when I was studying psychology in college – so not even a BA but . . . It sounded like the rantings of a person in a schizophrenic state to me. (And no disrespect meant toward people suffering from schizophrenia.)
Well, John explicitly states in the beginning of Apocalypse that he got that vision while resting on the sun during the day of the Lord in Patmos. Basically, he got a heatstroke and became quite delirious after it – though he didn’t say it that way and that’s not the official explanation from the Church.
The rapture and modern prophecy interpretations are what Deadpool would call, “an educated wish”. Most Christians who care to study the Bible and history know that. But just like there is a large audience for the prosperity gospel, there is an equally large audience of people who yearn to prove that they were “Rapture ready”.
Then there’s the crazies in office too. Which is one of the reasons we’ve arrived at this point in history. Israel has to exist to be blown up. Once it is blown up, Jesus can come home and establish his millennial kingdom.
Just because it was recently fabricated doesn’t mean that the believers don’t fanatically believe it. They do.
One definition of faith is belief despite contradictory evidence. Faith is why arguing with these people using hard evidence is pointless. They believe that fighting “Gog and Magog” somewhere near Meggido (Isr – Syr border) is going to invoke the second coming of Jesus and nothing will convince them otherwise. In addition, anything and eveything that occurs after this does not matter at all because of Armageddon. They are a nihilistic cult and they are wielding the levers of per right now.
American fundamentalist christianity is very recent. Designed to justify wealth.
i dont know what to make of this, as yet…but this dude seems to have been right about a lot of things, of late, and i found him here at NC:https://x.com/cirnosad/status/2029615862181941586
says hes a physicist…and has a lot of re-linked/re-posted thread on everything you ever wanted to know about nukes from years ago.
says the mushroom cloud has a distinctve glow, but needs more info/data.
He also has a video of a huge explosion, said to be near Tehran at night – reminded me of one Russian strike in Ukraine, again at night and caught on security cam. I think the latter was the detonation of an ammo dump.
AI/photo-shopped photo. imo. to me, it’s crystal clear. just sayin.
This just in: Trump ousts DHS secretary Kristi Noem.
fwiw: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/markwayne-mullin-homeland-security-secretary-nominee
Taking the Tindale analysis in a slightly different direction, I wonder how much of the shock to primary processing of metals and other materials can be ameliorated in the medium term by increased secondary (recycled) production. It’s been a while since I had any insight into the health of these sectors, but my impression is that recent years have not been kind to the fortunes of recyclers. This could change.
Also, as we know, plastic has limited to negligible recyclability. In some uses—containers—metal and glass can substitute, but that’s clearly not an option for many specialized medical applications.
We live in interesting times.
The Tindale analysis popped up on my twitterfeed late yesterday afternoon, reposted by rebel economist Steve Keen. I began reading it .. slowly. Was horrified. Thought I should send it out to everyone in my family. Then realized they would think I am even crazier than usual. Bookmarked it. Went back later in the evening to read more. Became depressed and worried. Began thinking of stockpiling essential medicines. Figured I was overreacting.
Read the beginning of this post, Yves, and felt much better. I rely on you to be the level-headed one in the room and if you are saying, read this and circulate widely because this may be our last best hope for stopping this madness, and Aurelian saying that it made his hair stand on end….. well, I am sending it on to select family members.
i just finished it, and wowee,lol.
sent it to y boys and cousin. latter hates windmills and sometimes reverts to his obama era gun nuttery…especially when i provide such articles…or get all excited and talk about them.
wants to believe real hard that amurka can just wave industry into existence…mostly because he doesnt want to live like i do,lol.
ive been advocating to mom for limited solar and wind(to run the well and the fridge/freezers) for 20+ years…but she’s set on full blown total replacement of grid…without modifying her own exorbitant electrical usage,lol.
i got screamed at a lot when china stuff was cheap and still available in usa(was it biden who stopped that?)
so i guess ill be hand pumping water(i have all that in the shop, and the means to install it manually) and carrying buckets.. to water the gardens.
ive been after autarky for 26 years…been rather crazy about the idea, in fact. but with limited resources of my own, and folks who habitually discount everything i say sitting on the money…welp,lol…ive done my best.
ill miss the internet.
and ill miss electric light.
but ill miss chainsaws and well pumps more.
Chainsaws are so incredibly useful. My fear of oil disruption in an off-grid lifestyle is what to do without a chainsaw. I simply can’t imagine it.
I’m trying to perfect rainwater collection off the roof, high enough that I don’t have to pump it or carry it any more. Smart use of gravity does a lot, but it won’t buck my firewood.
Ahh, those days of yore… ear trumpets, chest rubs, hog killing day, water eggs, cross-cut saws, mules, intestinal parasites, reading with a magnifying glass, illuminated by a kerosene lamp. Who could ask for anything more?
Back in the day where I was raised in California, all the old farms had tankhouses:
Tankhouse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tankhouse
You can still get almost the exact same wind powered water pump, here’s some used ones:
Windmills for sale https://www.rockridgewindmills.com/windmills-for-sale/
Company’s been making these since 1888 and is still in Texas:
AERMOTOR WINDMILL COMPANY https://aermotorwindmill.com/
Even used, it’s a bit pricey, but it might be worth it. (Not giving investment advice!)
America belatedly closes embassies (Twitter; Marins)
I’m starting to get Kabul/Saigon vibes.
US embassy in Kuwait “suspending all operations”.
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/03/status-of-u-s-embassy-kuwait-city/
https://old.reddit.com/r/navy/comments/1rl819a/centcom_update_centcom_is_asking_the_pentagon_to/
Links to: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/04/evacuation-middle-east-iran-war-00812898
Title: “CENTCOM Update : Centcom is asking the pentagon to send more personal to centcom hq in Tampa to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September, according to a notification obtained by POLITICO”
Some comments:
“So interesting. I’m in the CENTCOM Navy reserve support unit based at NRC Tampa. My skipper told me two weeks ago our whole unit is being decommissioned at the end of the FY. Talk about bad timing.”
“They also posted job ads for “personal effects specialist” to “support, receive, safeguard, inventory, store, process and make final disposition of personal effects of military and civilian casualties from overseas”…..”
Israel lobby-backed Democrats could determine whether Trump must seek approval before escalating the war in Iran.
Operation AIPAC Fury
Al Mayadeen reports that drones struck USS Abraham Lincoln, forcing it to pull back after it had moved closer to the straight. Seems based on IRGC statements (only?).
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-s-drones-hit-uss-abraham-lincoln-near-strait-of-hormuz
LNG Japan/Korea Marker
19.14 +78.42%
This could cast a gloom over PM Takaichi’s upcoming visit to the US.
New Daniel Davis interview with Dr. Theodore Postol on missile interception and drone guidance technology. Postol estimates an Israeli missile interception rate of 5%. Also describes the use of off the shelf infrared cameras and Iridium phone video for drone guidance.
And Bob’s your uncle: Warwick Powell, an Asia expert, on supply chains, knock-on effects, orientalism, and the view from China via the Peacemonger. Next fellow I’d like to hear from: Einar Tangen, a sometime guest on Glenn Diesen’s YT channel.
looks like the first of the new stuff coming out from iran? or have they used it already?
Al Jazeera reporting:
I first saw clips of these a couple of days ago. Looks like this:
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195436
Yesterday, there were fewer videos of missile attacks on Israel. Maybe due to the Zionist media blackout.
To this layman, it looks not simply like a cluster munition, but a missile that comes with its own package of decoys, because they are descending in formation.
We are deep in the fog of war but I cannot see how Iron dome will stop this sort of attack. I.e., the putative state-of-the-art anti-missile defense system outsmarted by a bunch of flaming bomblets.
I like a bit of systems thinking as much as the next NC groundling but some of this twelve steps article is over-egged.
First, it smells of AI in many places because of the repetition, floridity and breathlessness.
Second, it uses the word hyperinflation which is a big tell that the writer is more hysterical than rational. The market response to scarcity is a price increase and that increase may lead to a price spiral but the increase will stop provide the new lower production rate is maintained. So scarce oil prices out marginal users and raises the price of other goods, whose prices rise to force out their marginal consumers and so on. The result isn’t hyperinflation – which arises through repudiation of a currency as worthless and thus goods cost wheelbarrows of cash, not the converse – but a step-wise reduction in your terms of trade and standard of living to a lower level. We are not Argentina, we are postwar Britain.
Third, some of the sensitivities claimed seem wide of the mark. As examples:
– African copper may be affected by sulphuric acid shortage but (as the author eventually notes) not Chilean. And other places mine copper (Australasia, SE Asia).
– why would anybody substitute aluminium for copper in applications where copper is at the greatest advantage? Even if copper production fell, the price would dictate its use in electronic micro-engineering over, say, power lines. This substitution panic seems a particularly egregious form of shroud waving.
– even if aluminium requires 1.6x the area of copper to transmit the same power, in an AC conductor like a power line the conduction takes place wholly in the skin of the wire and the wires are therefore drawn hollow with the optimal thickness necessary for structural reasons to provide self-support in long spans and minimise weight. So we are talking about 1.6x a thin circumferential area.
– why would Taiwan prioritise consumer power consumption over TSMC?
– why would we start building new tankers? There are only 40 or so VLCC’s locked up in Hormuz out of 450 odd globally and they transport most of the oil by volume so the rest of the Hormuz route tankers not trapped behind the strait can be reallocated to other routes and therefore add shipping capacity (to the extent there is any spare oil to divert…). The issues with LNG are the sane, lack of supply dominates stranded shipping capacity.
That said, I enjoyed the ambition of the vision’s cascading failures and I am very glad you linked it. I might send it to the hedgie in-law….
PS: a 13th step the author overlooked: shutting in production for weeks or months on the oil and gas fields of the Middle East is a risk in itself. The production rate of the field may be permanently impaired after shut-in…..
Oh, and it looks like Iran’s OPEC neighbours are all gambling on shutting in production to buy themselves waivers from bombing their production and refining and tankering assets. The US cannot force them to stay open with nowhere to send the output; the GCC countries can then watch the US bases absorb the bombs as they play nicely and increase the effectiveness of Iran’s blockade with plausible deniability.
The embargo of Gulf production must be comparable to a large fraction of the original OPEC blockade of the 1970’s, with only Saudi Red Sea coast and Gulf of Oman oil being available before the Straits.
Someone (AG?) commented yesterday that, for practical purposes, GCC countries might de facto cooperating with Iran’s blockade, with which several of us, myself included, agreed. Shutting down the production, supposedly in exchange for Iran not attacking them, would be one good way to implement this.
Per the Israeli state broadcaster Kan (via TASS):
Israel, US prepare to reduce intensity of strikes on Iran
According to its sources, the US and Israeli militaries came to a conclusion “that strikes cannot continue for long at the unprecedentedly high pace.”
At the same time, at this stage both Washington and Tel Aviv are satisfied with the results of their military operation against Iran.
—
Make of it what you will.
They’re running out of bombs.
Yep! LOL
I suspect airplanes, logistics performance and people are “wearing” down!
The intensity of operations of a fighter/strike aircraft “unit” is called sortie generation rate (SGR). That is how many take offs can the unit generate per day.
SGR is affected by the underlying reliability of the unit assigned aircraft as maintained (over the past year or so). in the case of USAF the mission capable rates run <50%, that is one in two are broke at any given time. Under high SGR stresses the mission capable rate declines due to delayed repairs, mechanical failure generation, parts/supply chain (AI has poor performance in supply chain operations) shorts etc.
SGR is affected by the shipped with the unit spares "kit" and how rapidly it can be replenished. USAF is flying wings off C-17's lot of parts coming in.
SGR is affected by pilot wear out, flights are long with stresses, and multiple aerial refuelings.
SGR needs a large pond of JP-8! Best delivered by pipeline, worst delivered by C-17!
Yes SGR needs munitions, which are heavy and not well delivered by C-17!
SGR depends on real estate.
SGR depends on maintenance and servicing manpower.
All told a high SGR will "wear out" a flying unit in X days regardless of how well all the above are supplied.
X could under harsh conditions and moving away from Iranian drones could be <6 days!
very nice explainer!
Thank you.
“I will graciously agree to no longer do what is uncomfortable for me to continue. As a sign of proper gratitude, it is expected that you will stop doing what is easy for you to continue. Thank you for conforming to your Master’s expectations…”
I guess this is where it gets interesting. What are the odds Iran and others decide to make Israel cry uncle? Because it appears they have no options and no risk if they don’t continue. If Iran stops, the US and Israel will re-arm and attack again. If Israel is too threatened, they will nuke Iran. If Israel decides they can’t win any other way, they will alwo nuke Iran. The only options Iran truly seems to have is die on your feet fighting in order to attract allies, or die alone lying down.
Not much of a choice, but who knows what will happen next?
What are the odds that Iran is lining up third party nuclear states to perform retaliatory strikes on Israel if said entity does resort to their Samson Option?
If the worst case scenario does happen, then the Saudi oil fields are neutralized for a decade. That leaves the north of the Persian Gulf oil producers as the remaining mass suppliers. If the Izzys do go all Apocalypto, then the north of the Gulf suppliers are out of it too for a decade. That leaves America and Russia as the Big Dogs in oil.
We live in interesting times.
Stay safe.
Jonathan Cook linked this. Ordinary military are complaining about their nutty commanders. Meanwhile Trump believes God spared him for a mission.
https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for
Will the rapture look like a mushroom cloud? Scary stuff. You half expect these people to start spraying their teeth with silver paint like in Mad Max Fury Road.
And this interesting nugget from the latest Max Blumenthal on Judge Nap. He says that Netanyahu convinced Trump that both 2024 assassination attempts were really the work of Iran giving Trump a personal and cowardly motivation for the current attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbrNCXOzOfY
He also says that the Israeli desire is to get a land war started between American troops and Iran and this is what the “until September” talk is about. The latest Simplicius also pushes this idea that American troops will be with the Kurds. The real purpose of the Israelis is to at all costs keep TACO from walking away again.
Officer corps are true believers. Many enlisted are in it as the employer of last resort. Works until they’re tasked with actually killing people. If Blumenthal ^ is prescient about us walking into a land war in Asia I fear a draft.
I have a ten year old. Pretty soon I want to sit him down about putting together a conscientious objector CV. My high school English teacher walked my AP class through his successful petition during Viet Nam, and it’s a big lift for a teenager.
We were friends with a man who did go CO during Nam. He ended up doing a Marine Corps tour in Leavenworth Prison as a result. Better you set up a rat line for your son to some nation without an extradition treaty with the US. Then, later, he can become part of the US Government in Exile.
Stay safe.
bubbled up in me brain.
germane, i think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J96q9ICwRY0
NYT investigation indicates it was the US that bombed the school on the first day: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/world/middleeast/iran-school-us-strikes-naval-base.html
Not just bombed but double tapped.
Nima & Martyanov
Good general military criticism by usual broad brush.
2 take-aways:
TC 20:00
Nima quotes an item of news, the origin he doesn´t say: That 42 or 44 interceptors were used to down on missile
TC 24:50
more concerning – Andrei quotes IRGC that next target would be Israeli nuclear facitilies of Dimona.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2026/03/nima-and-me.html
Hezbollah announces:
A 5 km rollback, then.
I think that demanding Israel to turn Netanyahu over to the ICJ would be a good move, Trump has never hesitated when it came to throwing an “Ally” under the bus…
ah, that sounds somewhat plausible. It would give Iran direct results. It would also allow for a “see, we got rid of the bad apple, now we can go back to being the good guys again” western narrative.
Part of a “strategy perspectives” spam email from one of my banks (boldface mine):
Methinks the appropriate meme here is “Kek Super Copium” lol: https://imgur.com/gallery/super-copium-6a7nnVp
‘Dahiyeh will resemble Khan Younis’: Smotrich warns of Gaza-like destruction coming to Lebanon (Times of Israel)
(Beirut suburb, Dahiyeh is one of the most densely populated parts of Lebanon)
ToI story on attack on Dahiyeh: https://www.timesofisrael.com/officer-seriously-wounded-in-lebanon-as-strikes-pound-hezbollah-bastion-near-beirut/
Hotels in Bahrain used by US Navy officers getting droned:
https://t.me/SabrenNewss/185400
Residential towers also being hit:
https://t.me/SabrenNewss/185336
Getting that billboard “LIVE NOW IN THE MOST LUXURIOUS APARTMENTS” in the same frame with a building on fire was a clever touch.
Some local intel being shared for targeting ?
Maybe 80% of the population being underpaid foreign guest workers doesn’t work out so well ?
Local workers are Shia, same as Iranians, so many are loyal or at least sympathetic to Iran.
It certainly couldn’t be the convoys of black Caddy Escalades showing up in front of these hotels.
Me, I’d be driving a Hyundai to the Motel 6.
no fren, they’rei incognito. They drive around in black Chevy Suburbans. big difference /sarc.
the OpSec thing to do is live in a bedouin tent. but that means no A/C for the general and his colonels, lol
Ameicans’ love of A/C is going to fknally bite us. i recall Xenophon writing about the Oracle telling Xerxes II, a great empire will fall…cuz they’re addicted to A/C
Iraqi Kurdi news site Shafaq:
Iranian Kurdish parties set conditions for involvement against Iran
Charlie Brown is learning?
—
The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, said on Thursday that it couldn’t take part in a potential military campaign against Iran unless certain conditions are met, including guarantees that the security of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region would not be jeopardized and that the United States offers meaningful military support.
The Party spokesperson Khalil Kanisanani told Shafaq News that such involvement in a potential war against Iran would depend on “real military and logistical support,” not merely political backing or media statements.
His remarks followed a statement by the US President Donald Trump, who earlier said he would welcome Kurdish participation in a possible attack on Iran. Kanisanani also affirmed that no meaningful assistance had reached Kurdish forces in eastern Kurdistan, nor had the Kurdistan Regional Government received significant support, warning that “the Kurdistan Region remains largely without effective air defense protection.”
Acknowledging the presence of a limited US defense system protecting the regional capital Erbil, he noted that “there are no firm guarantees for the region’s broader security and stability in the event of a large-scale war.” He stressed that the Kurdistan Region lacks the advanced defense systems possessed by countries such as Jordan, Qatar, and Bahrain, and therefore “cannot engage in a war without receiving weapons, air defense systems, and comprehensive military support.”
Kanisanani said that part of the reason Kurdish opposition forces have refrained from conducting operations inside Iran is their respect for the laws of the Kurdistan Region and the closure of the border, noting that roughly half of the constraints stem from the regional authorities’ position against using their territory in the conflict.
Separately, an official from the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan denied reports circulating early Thursday about opposition forces moving toward Iranian territory, describing the claims as “baseless rumors”.
——
Any terms that the US/Israel agrees to are about the same value as a wad of used toilet paper as you know that they will renege on them almost immediately.
USreal has shown that it can never be trusted so why would anybody be willing to negotiate with it?
Radar bases housing key US missile interceptor hit in Jordan and UAE, satellite images show (CNN)
The radar system for an American THAAD missile battery in Jordan was struck and apparently destroyed in the first days of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a satellite image taken on Monday shows.
Buildings housing similar radar systems were also hit at two locations in the United Arab Emirates, CNN analysis shows, although it is unclear if the equipment was damaged.
Middle East Spectator via Telegram
It is very important to remember that Iran has NOT used any of its Eastern missile bases yet.
We saw them be used towards the end of the 12-Day War, where they launched 40-50 missiles at once even during full suppression.
That may not seem like much, but with such depleted AD stockpiles, that would do a load of damage.
Wait a few days and see if / when Iran starts using them.
There’s an interesting FT story today. It’s paywalled and not archived and I’ve only seen screenshots.
It looks to be an attempt to put pressure on the US and specifically Trump? Hit him in his investments?
Gulf states could review overseas investments to ease strains caused by Iran war (FT, paywalled)
Reuters article on FT story
no. peeps are getting way too much into the 4-D chess forest/trees.
Gulf States finances stink…they are illiquid asset rich, cash-in-hand poor—a classic problem for many “rich” people.
long war = they gotta sell widgets or borrow money to raise cash to pay the bills.
indeed. a good example is elon musk vs myriam adelson. The former is rich in paper assets, the latter has an 8-or-9-figure annual cashflow
>peeps are getting way too much into the 4-D chess forest/trees.
Stories appear on the front pages of newspapers for reasons.
My point, perhaps unclearly made, is that the story appearing prominently in the FT is an attempt to pressure Trump.
This has been making the rounds. When the news is so bad a little humor helps.
Trump in the war room