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Iran War: Trump Escalates via Preparation for Ground Assault; Israel Takes More Pounding, Husbands Air Defenses; Coming Helium, Jet Fuel Shortages; Prospects for Vastly Higher Oil Prices

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[This Iran War update is yet again launching before finished. It will be done by 8:00 AM EDT. If you arrive before then, please do remember to refresh this page as of then and re-skim]

With respect to the Iran war, said there was no idea so foolish that this Administration would not attempt it. As many military experts, as well as savvy members of the commentariat have pointed out, a shambolic exercise is moving forward; hastily assembling a small number of US special forces and throwing them into an Iranian buzz saw. We won’t belabor that this is a catastrophically bad idea, with comparisons already being made to the charge of the Light Brigade and Galipolli. Some of the videos we feature below provide ample detail. But all you need to consider is that even if the US manages to land forces more or less safely, sustainment is impossible.

Admittedly, seasoned analysts like John Mearsheimer and Richard Pape clearly stated that they expected the US to continue to move up the escalation ladder. And we have argued that the force that would check Trump sooner rather than later has astonishingly not yet come into play, that of a market rout. Financial time moves faster than political or military time. Amazingly, investors have bought the Administration’s happy talk, which has been proven false in Project Ukraine, that the opponent was weak, incompetent, running out of weapons, about to revolt, and all the US had to do was keep pushing just a bit longer and they would fall like a house of cards. We explained long-form on our last post how long-standing trends, that of an elite almost entirely removed from real-economy operations, plus bad conditioning of investment professional, has created a remarkable degree of complacency in the face of catastrophic downsides that are starting to emerge.

Now aside from harboring the Iran version of “Russia is running out of missiles” fantasy, a very dimly plausible theory is that if the US occupies either Kharg Island or small islands in the Strait of Hormuz proper, that will get the Europeans and other countries that have held back from committing naval assets to opening the Strait of Hormuz to enter the fray.

Another view is that this probable escalation is because Bibi (see Breaking Points in Transcript of Bibi DEMANDS Ground Troops As Marines Rushed to Iran)

If Trump were less convinced of his own vainglory, a possible motivator is the logic that kept us in Vietnam for so long. Recall that Daniel Ellsberg was convinced like other Vietnam experts who had recognized that war was unwinnable, that if he could only get access to the President to explain why, that he could convince him to start pulling out. But as a top decision scientist at Rand, he had access to what became known as the Pentagon Papers. They showed that the US had long known it could not prevail, but no Administration was willing take the massive loss of prestige of conceding that the US could not win against a small country run by yellow Communists.

Finally, Trump may have come to believe like the evangelicals around him that Jesus is on his side.

This Daniel Davis report is a must watch. Davis provides the evidence, such as deployment of medical units, as well as chatter from his contacts, that convinces him that the US is about to attempt a special forces/ground operation, and that the timing seems urgent. He notes, for instance, that it would be more normal to take the two or so weeks more to get more naval assets in place, but he senses an eagerness to move even sooner:

Larry Johnson is more equivocal about what Trump might do (see Boots on the Ground in Iran… A Deception or a Suicide Mission?) but Davis’ detail on the number and type of assets being moved to the theater seems dispositive

This fresh update from Hindustan Times identifies targets besides Kharg Island, the aforementioned small islands in mouth of Hormuz. It is entirely plausible that all of the US media braying about Kharg Island is a misdirection. Notice in this segment how Defenes Secretary Pete Hegseth throws Ukraine under the bus:

Keep in mind that Davis above, like others, highlighted the importance of careful preparation in ground operations. This is not that:

Janta Ka believes that Trump is messaging that he wants a way out. He includes a long clip from a Trump presser, where Trump makes the astonishing claim that the US does not need the Strait of Hormuz (will Mr Market take that well?), that opening it would be easy if you get enough ships, and that anyway the problem will solve itself because the US has hit Iran so hard:

Simplicius and others have argued that this fresh tweet points to Trump trying to declare victory and go home. But anyone with an operating brain cell knows he can’t with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed (more on how Iran is implementing a more formal process for selective opening later in this post)

This was not written by Trump. It lacks his eccentric capitalization and ALL CAPS.

This attempted show of manhood is coming as the US continues to lose ground in a fundamental manner all across the Middle East:

The US admits that Iran hit and damaged an F-35, its supposedly super stealthy fighter jet. I recall (but not why) the F-35 was not as stealthy as billed. And no, it was not due to having to sidle up to refuelers en route.

More on “The war situation has developed not necessarily to the advantage of the US and Israel”:

Hindustan Times points out that Israel is admitting publicly that is it having to let some Iranian strikes through so as to preserve its depleting air defense inventory:

Hindustan Times describes yet more proof of Iranian prowess:

Iran continues to boomb other Gulf states. Note that the Aljazeera presenter, to his credit, points out that that the US and Israel attacks on Iran are what triggered retaliatory strikes:

But as Chas Freeman points out in a new talk with Nima, the Gulf states not thinking clearly. They are going into arms of US when Iran can destroy them in whole or in part and US can’t stop Iran. He also talks briefly about a boots-on-the-ground mission, and can’t fathom how that could possibly work, save the US retaking some small islands seized by Iran back in the day of the Shah from the UAE. That would be a win for the UAE, which is taking an awful lot of punishment, and would be achievable at reasonable risk.

Mind you, US and Israel are still landing some hard punches:

Turning to the economic front, please click though to read this tweet in full. Shanaka Anslem Perera identifies seven clocks and why the sand runs out of the hourglass for each of them between March 31 and mid-May. The first three are agriculture-related: planting (for corn and soybeans), the USDA prospective plantings, and the next publication of the FAO food index. The others on his list are pharmaceuticals (when inventories of Indian active pharmaceutical ingredients for its generics start to run out), China crude (when its inventories run low and what it might do then), helium (as in what happens if Russia can’t ramp up replacement supply fast enough to prevent semiconductor production rationing) and maritime insurance. This forecast may be seen as dire but tails are fat:

Keep in mind that the helium problem will not be solved by opening the Strait of Hormuz, even if that were to happen, but is a long way from being solved, due to the loss of Qatar LNG. We’ve pointed out that it may take as long as five years to rebuild the critical Ras Laffan facility. From India Today in Why the world is running out of helium, and how it could disrupt modern life

… helium production is entirely dependent on LNG production. If LNG operations stop, helium extraction also halts automatically.

Despite its simplicity, helium underpins critical sectors of modern life:

Semiconductors: It cools silicon wafers, enables chip fabrication, and supports extreme ultraviolet lithography used in advanced processors powering AI and data centres,

Healthcare: Liquid helium cools superconducting magnets in MRI machines worldwide.

Space and defence: It pressurises rocket fuel tanks and purges propulsion systems ahead of launch.

Scientific research: Major facilities like particle accelerators depend on helium-based cryogenics for the smooth operation of heavy machines.

There is currently no viable large-scale substitute for helium in these applications.

Finite helium reserves, primarily in the US and Qatar, which together account for roughly 30-38% of global output, are steadily depleting. The shutdown of the US Federal Helium Reserve in 2021 alone removed about 10% of global production capacity.

At the same time, demand is surging. MRI machines consume around 25-30% of global helium supply, semiconductors account for 20-25%, and usage in space technology continues to grow.

Continuing on the economic front, let us first look at jet fuel before going bigger picture. High and uncertain jet fuel prices are a killer for tourism. It isn’t yet clear how high ticket prices will go, but if they rise high enough in a generally bad stagflationary period (charitably assuming no Jackpot lite outcomes), passenger volumes will fall enough to result in big schedule cuts. If you had the misfortune to travel during the worst of Covid, flight scheduling, particularly in the US with its hub-and-spoke system, becomes difficult due to long layovers in intermediate airports.

A short update, Bad News For Air New Zealand from DJ’s Aviation, explains how jet fuel prices have risen as high as twice the old normal. And it mentions in passing an idea that had not occurred to me: jet fuel is priced at a spread over Brent. The big increase in that spread accounts for most of the price increase That also suggests that even airlines that hedged fuel are still exposed, since odds greatly favor that they simply (at most) somewhat overhedged using the very liquid Brent futures, as opposed to ponying up for a more costly, less liquid (perhaps custom?) hedge of jet fuel specifically.1 Anyone who knows either way, please pipe up.

To broader oil market issues, per the Telegraph in The oil market is in uncharted waters and signalling alarm for Europe:

In recent days, oil prices have splintered sharply – leading markets into uncharted waters and posing risks to Europe.
The $160-a-barrel price on offer for Middle Eastern crude oil is a sign of a market out of kilter and gives a frightening glimpse of what’s coming to Britain, say experts.

The price of Dubai crude oil is one of the three most important global oil price benchmarks, alongside Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – and normally they all sit fairly close together.

Before the conflict all three were hovering around $70 a barrel but each one is trading at a different price, with US prices much cheaper than European and Middle Eastern barrel.

It’s an imbalance that has rarely been seen in global energy markets, with many seasoned energy watchers surprised by the different trajectories.

“Global energy markets are in uncharted waters,” says Tom Kloza, a veteran oil analyst.

“I don’t think anybody was prepared for this. It is absolutely extraordinary. There is no real playbook for how to deal with it and everybody is making things up as they go along.”

Brent crude, typically seen as the benchmark for UK and European prices, has risen sharply to around $111 a barrel.

But WTI – the benchmark for US oil prices – is currently trading sharply lower at $98. Normally, the gap is only around $3.
Both are alarming in their own way. But is it the price of Dubai oil, shipments that can be rapidly delivered, that is setting off the most alarm bells. This has soared to $160 a barrel and is rising fast.

Again, this divergence raises further issues like the ones we pointed out with jet fuel. How many players, like big multinationals, who through they had hedge fuel risks, did so with Brent futures when their exposure is to Dubai crude or narrow grades like shipping fuel? This matters because some players (think cruise lines) do a ton of hedging (such as of currencies) because they book customer commitments considerably in advance and also make as many expense commitment forward as possible to reduce their net risks. So even more so than airlines, they may be whipsawed by having made commitments that may result in big losses if they try to honor them.

The temporary waiver on Iranian oil is yet another sign of underlying Trump Administration desperation, despite its bold talk. Lindsey Graham’s head must be exploding. Admittedly, this order applies only to Iranian oil now on tankers at sea, but is an admission of US desperation and take any measure possible to try to contain oil price increases:

But a bigger risk may be bearing down on oil prices.

The guts of his tweet (emphasis his):

I have to tell you why the assessments regarding projected energy prices and the economic consequences of the war on Iran, made by every expert and financial institution in the world are

Will that be the hammer that will force Gulf countries to accept the mechanisms Iran is working to formalize for transit through the Strait of Hormuz? Recall we pointed out that the big reason for insisting on payment in yuan (which at this point seems more talked about than operative but could be regularlized soon) is to charge a toll outside the US dollar system as a way of getting reparations. Would the US be forced to drop its sanctions against Iran to preserve the role of the dollar? Even though it is actually petrocapital (Gulf states with financial surpluses) that invest in US securities because they are still the deepest and most liquid in the world (we are still the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry in that regard), Joe Kent told Tucker that this Administration believe the invalid but similar-seeming petrodollar thesis. So what do they do as breakage gets worse?

From Arabian Gulf Business Insight in Ships test ‘Iran-approved’ Hormuz corridor :

Ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz via an “Iran-approved” corridor close to Larak Island off the coast of Iran for verification checks, according to maritime news outlet Lloyd’s List..

Speaking at Lloyd’s List weekly risk briefing on Thursday, editor-in-chief Richard Meade described the development as an “Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps registration and vetting” process being coordinated with a number of governments.


Larak Island is in the Strait of Hormuz, south of Hormuz Island

“The emergence of an Iran-approved safe corridor suggests that vessel profiling is coming,” he said, adding a more formal vetting system was likely…

Both eastbound and westbound voyages have used the channel over the last few days, the briefing was told.

Meade said several governments, including China, India, Pakistan, Iraq and Malaysia, are in direct contact with Iran to coordinate vessel transits through the passageway.

“The system now is a little bit nascent. It’s not formalised, but we know that is coming.”

Meade said traffic using the route is directed towards the island – a major crude export point – for visual identification and possible radio confirmation.

“At least nine ships have already used this so-called corridor, which effectively routes ships close to Larak Island for visual checks by the IRGC Navy and port authorities,” he said.

“The fact that taking them through territorial waters, we understand, is for a visual eyeball on the ships, possibly with VHF [very high frequency radio] confirmation. But this is not a sophisticated spotting technology.”

He said a more formalised approach is expected: “That’s going to require from the ships that move through a more extensive disclosure of vessel ownership, cargo destination – they want to know the full details.”

There are also indications that access may come at a cost. Meade said one tanker operator is understood to have paid a fee to transit the strait, highlighting concerns that passage could become conditional.

“We know of at least one where payments have been given in order to exit,” he told the briefing of maritime industry leaders.

Finally, for what ought to be comic relief, except the linked article is serious:

All for today! See you tomorrow.

____

1 The term of art is basis risk, when the hedging instrument does not move perfectly with the value of the underlying.

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342 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    ‘Nawaf Al-Thani نواف بن مبارك آل ثاني
    @NawafAlThani
    If the Diego Garcia strike report is accurate, then one of the central assumptions about Iran’s missile program has just collapsed.’

    That attempted missiles strike is important for another reason. Iran launched two missiles at Diego Garcia. One failed in flight while the other was intercepted by an SM-3 interceptor. This might have been fired by an Arleigh Burke destroyer that was stationed there before the war. Whatever. But it is the range that will make the US Navy sit up and pay attention. The US Navy moved its warships several hundred away from the Gulf to keep them safe from missiles. With those missiles, that assumption is dead and now they must realize that they are still in missile range.

    1. Ben Panga

      FWIW I haven’t seen any Iranian confirmation that they fired missiles at DG, and previously they’ve stated their missiles are (artificially) capped at 2000km.

      There are good propaganda reasons for the US to potentially make this up.

      Murky; who knows!

      1. ISL

        I wonder. Do you feel more confident with this propaganda that the US will win (ill defined at this point)? Do our allies – oh there are none – feel more onboard (or more likely to sue for peace)?

        Personally, I think if true, that the US is lying about what happened (it lies about everything), which is much scarier (and widely assumed – Trump lies about everything).

        Still, there is form for stupidity, so why not in propaganda, too?

      3. Ben Panga

        >There are good propaganda reasons for the US to potentially make this up

        Current top headlines on websites of the top 5 UK newspapers:

        London now in reach of Iran’s missiles, Israel warns Starmer (Telegraph)

        London, Paris and Berlin ALL ‘under threat’ from Iranian missiles after Tehran ‘uses space rocket’ (Mail Online)

        UK ‘A TARGET’: London ‘under threat’ from Iran missiles after ‘space rocket’ targets UK base (The Sun)

        Iran missiles threaten Europe, says IDF (Times)

        UK Ministry of Defence condemns Iran missile strikes towards UK-US base as Britain ‘dragged’ into war (Guardian)

        ——–

        Full disclosure, it’s actually 2nd story at The Mail after Fergie’s plot to clone Queen’s corgis: Extraordinary plan to sell replicas of monarch’s beloved pets

    2. Old Jake

      Don’t forget, aiming at a stationary target like DG is one thing, targeting a moving object even as large as a carrier is very different. Nevertheless, merely demonstrating the capability to hit the facilities at DG changes things. Or perhaps I should say hitting these targets changes things. Not only can the ground operations supporting long range bombers and tankers be disrupted there, but – as mentioned here by other commenters and I think Yves too – Germany and the UK are also in range and become part of the action in ways they perhaps never conceived.

  2. Harold Wilson

    I’m glad Yves has posted this

    “This fresh update from Hindustan Times identifies targets besides Kharg Island, the aforementioned small islands in mouth of Hormuz. It is entirely plausible that all of the US media braying about Kharg Island is a misdirection.”

    Kharg Island is indeed a distraction.

    Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb would be the most likely first targets. Iran has held them since 1971, and their legal status has always been a subject of dispute with the UAE. Funnily enough as late as 2023 Russia was supporting the UAE’s claims at the UN.

    If that turns out to be the case, you can expect to see a between two and four weeks of missile and air strikes on those locations before troops are landed.

    Capturing those Islands wouldn’t give the U.S complete control of the strait though. They would still need to capture Qeshm and Lark and Hormuz Islands.

    1. TiPs

      Someone (can’t remember–info overload) speculated Yemen could be a target to keep that Red Sea oil supply open. I have no idea about the military feasibility of this? If Opening Hormuz is accepted as near impossible, could this be a option? I’d imagine a joint Saudi operation if so?

      1. The Rev Kev

        When Yemen closed the Red Sea a year or two ago, the idea was floated of US ground troops landing in Yemen to stop them. Scott Ritter debunked the whole idea as the US did not have the troop numbers or logistics to even attempt to do this. It was no longer the 90s. Iran would be an order of magnitude harder. It would be like the beach scene from “Saving Private Ryan”- but with kamikaze drones.

      2. ISL

        Israel tried some ground operations with a few hundred troops against Yemen. They were slaughtered, if I remember. See, it was supposed to be a surprise, but somehow (wink wink satellite ISR) Yemen found out. The Yemeni’s are very tough fighters.

        1. GF

          Suezmax tankers can traverse the Suez Canal. Why not use those tankers and enter the Saudi oil ports from the north eliminating the need for sail past Yemen? I realize that Iran could destroy the Saudi pipeline.

          1. vao

            That is practicable for oil intended for Europe, but it entails a gigantic detour for cargo headed to Asia — which represents the majority of customers for oil from the Persian Gulf…

      3. redleg

        WTF is a regiment, which is the manpower of a MEU, going to do? It’s too small to accomplish anything of significance, with the exception of drawing copious fire.

        Further, how to they stay there: food, water, fuel, ammo, medical support, shelter, equipment, etc.
        Then, what’s the plan for getting them out?

        God help those marines because nobody else will.

        1. Revenant

          I believe that is the only purpose of the regiment, drawing copious fire.

          Those marines, if they land on the islands in the strait, are being sent to their deaths. Every beach must be programmed into Iranian missiles already – and booby trapped into the bargain. And the real prize is the US ships bringing them, the USA has a lot more men than ships.

          But… firing on the men will reveal launch sites on the strait coast, which will be promptly bombed by the Americans.

          I don’t understand the accelerated time line. Logic dictates there must be another part of the operation that cannot wait. Are there special forces operating in Iran? We haven’t heard anything – which suggests there are! Are they preparing to uncloak themselves and support a coastal invasion? Identify and call in strikes in launch sites? Maybe the marines are there to meet up with special forces inserted from Pakistan to take the Eastern end of the coast and work their way round? Or the US has a submarine force arriving?

          Darkest thought: not only are the marines there to draw fire, they are there as a pretext to flex the US’s nuclear muscle. There’s not much else on the coast so as soon as any shore-based units fire on the marines, the US will tactical nuke them, to solve the “Okinawa problem” of clearing coastal caves and mountains and show Iran who’s boss.

          1. Jabura Basadai

            and those soldiers left, if alive, will certainly appreciate being nuked (not!) – guess the Albright Doctrine of acceptable loss will be in play –

          2. The Rev Kev

            ‘But… firing on the men will reveal launch sites on the strait coast, which will be promptly bombed by the Americans.’

            Unless the Iranians hit them with mobile drones. Just shoot’n’skoot.

          3. Cat Burglar

            Outrage over their deaths will be used to develop political support for escalation, just like in the Vietnam War.

            As McGeorge Bundy said about the US casualties at Pleiku, “Pleikus are like streetcars.”

      4. n

        Yemen has (or had its been a while since I looked) more guns per capita than any other country on Earth.

        Double the US.

        Every Yemeni man cares most about 2 things, having many guns and having many sons.

        Invading Yemen would be suicide.

  3. Who Cares

    The US admits that Iran hit and damaged an F-35, its supposedly super stealthy fighter jet. I recall (but not why) the F-35 was not as stealthy as billed. And no, it was not due to having to sidle up to refuelers en route.

    Using supercruise leaves a wake that can be seen if you tune a satellite to detect it.
    To keep stealth weapons are held in internal weapon bays. The moment they open it shows up on radar looking at it from below.
    The coating is finicky to say the least. Any particulates (would be mostly dust & salt in the current combat theatre, but water that is clouds/humidity can degrade it as well) in the air can result in degrading the effectiveness of it. You’d have to check the plane after every sortie to keep it optimal.
    The planes angles are optimized for frontal stealth. The side & rear might have enough reduction that a MANPAD or older generation SAM can’t lock-on on it’s own but the newer integrated defenses just need 1 VHF radar to locate the plane to allow a SAM in the same network to know where to look and lock.

    1. vao

      These explanations overlap and are consistent with those I got 25 years ago from colleagues who had worked at British Aerospace.

    2. The Rev Kev

      Just going by memory, I believe that the Iranians picked that plane up by infrared which showed up the whole plane. The pilot was wounded in that missile hit by shrapnel but managed to bring back that F-35 though it was all banged up. Probably it will not fly again and will be a source of spare parts.

    3. .Tom

      I recall a year or two ago reading on NC that an f35 loses some stealth after flying supersonic. It’s specs were updated after this was confirmed and that’s how it got in the news.

    4. Who Cares

      I should have added the reason for optimizing for frontal stealth.
      The F35 was conceived as an air superiority fighter. That is sneak up on enemy planes in contested airspace and trying to insure that the first thing they’d noticed would be a missile lock. It wasn’t meant for the kind of deep into enemy airspace bombing that it is doing now. Then someone conceived the notion that it should be useable by the marine corps as a STOL (Well they wanted VTOL but that was just not happening) variant requiring compromises to the stealth profile.

    2. The Rev Kev

      Same here. Putting these Iran war updates on one page must be as much work as putting together a Links page.

    3. NYT_Memes

      Mr. Market may awaken this weekend, based on this article from Carlyle I just read this morning.

      A Crude Awakening
      https://www.carlyle.com/global-insights/white-paper/a-crude-awakening-pdf?utm_source=news.theideafarm.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=a-crude-awakening&_bhlid=1cfec49ccc4480ec6b24a5b4e562513f809e5019&mc_cid=67d17eb658&mc_eid=cedfa99ed3

      O I L I S T H E R A R E E A R T H O F T H E M AC R O SYS T E M . Fifty years of efficiency gains have made oil cheaper
      per unit of GDP — but more irreplaceable in function. The remaining barrels are the ones for which no
      substitute exists: petrochemical feedstocks, aviation fuel, grid balancing, fertilizers. Remove them and
      you do not get demand destruction — you get production shutdowns. We believe the world is more
      vulnerable to an oil shock today than it was in 1973, not less.

      1. earthling

        Thank you, a lot of rational thinking there, but we’ll see if the sleepwalkers on Wall Street rouse themselves before Armageddon commences. Right now they seem so awash in money and overconfidence that the downsides don’t concern them.

      2. eg

        I’ve heard Jeff Currie of Carlyle Group a couple of times on Bloomberg Surveillance in the past 10 days or so. He has been one of the few guests on that show who has a grasp of the enormity of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The rest are either full of “happy talk” about a short interruption of “business as usual” or completely deluded security state honks singing from the Team America hymn sheet.

    4. mrsyk

      Same here too, thank you. I am unaware of anywhere else on the western net where an honest, good faith analysis/discussion of the war occurs as it does here.

      1. Tom Stone

        Doing these War updates on a daily basis takes both a high degree of competence and a good deal of moral courage, thank you Yves.

  5. HH

    Regarding the F-35 shoot down, the simplest explanation is an optical tracking and guidance system. Stealth aircraft are visible in daylight, and if they are flying low and slow they can be intercepted by an optical sighting and command guidance system. The similarity of the video of the F-35 intercept to that of the drone intercepts indicates that this is how Iran is taking down drones. Optical tracking is used as a backup in Russian Pantsir and Tor air defense missile systems, and it is likely that Iran has deployed similar technology.

    1. Carolinian

      An article I saw yesterday said it was a heat seeking Buk style missile that also uses optical recognition to gain the main target despite decoys. Because no radar is being used by the shooters the pilot had no warning and AD suppression no target.

      Sorry for lack of link. I forget where I saw this.

    2. Pearl Rangefinder

      And the best part with optical and infrared tracking is that it is passive and therefore completely invisible to the enemy, unlike radar locks, which sensors on military aircraft can detect, and then have a chance to deploy countermeasures as well as pinpoint the location of the defenders radar systems.

      1. vao

        This is something I do not quite understand.

        I have seen a number of videos about Russian aircraft operating over Ukraine, and airplanes consistently spread flares around to confuse heat-seeking missiles.

        Heat-seeking missiles are supposedly what did in those two F-35s.

        I presume that the F-35 has ways to detect incoming threats, so why did the pilots not activate the flare-throwing mechanism in time? I can understand that a F-35 activating its radar would make it totally unstealthy, but doesn’t it also have passive detection mechanisms such as infrared or optical sensors?

        1. LawnDart

          Iran enters this conversation:

          Silence of the stealth: How Iran shattered the ‘invincibility’ of US F-35 fighter jet

          Unlike conventional radar-based systems that would have alerted the F-35’s sophisticated electronic warfare suite, the Iranian operators utilized the Majid short-range air defense system (AD-08), an indigenous platform that operates on infrared guidance.

          This choice of weaponry was no accident. The F-35’s vaunted stealth capabilities, achieved through painstaking reductions in radar cross-section, have always been compromised by a persistent vulnerability: its heat signature.

          The Pratt & Whitney F135 engine, while powerful, generates immense thermal emissions that no amount of engineering can fully mask.

          The Majid system, produced by the Iranian Armed Forces Logistics Department’s Defence Industry Organization and first unveiled in April 2021, exploits precisely this weakness.

        2. ilsm

          IR missile do not radiate, most fighters being small have small radar warning receivers on their trailing edges. These do not pick up passive tracking such as IR.

          There are kit, actually small radars that can track an IR interceptor, but these are larger and radiate so would not be consistent with stealth. C-17 and other large cargo aircraft likely have this set up for defense against IR intercept, and MANPADS which are mostly IR.

          The F-35 throws a lot of IR from an engine that burns a 16000-pound fuel tank down in 300 miles.

        3. Pearl Rangefinder

          You are right, infrared search and track works in both directions, sensors on the aircraft have a chance to spot incoming missiles via their heat signatures also. Fighters can also track other aircraft completely passively this way if they are close enough for their sensors to pick up the heat signatures. Pretty much all modern fighter aircraft do have various types of infrared search and track systems, they are usually little bubble-type sensor pods on the fuselage. Good images on the Wiki article: Infrared search and track

          Many modern missiles use both radar and infrared guidance as a backup, which is why you see those flares deployed in Ukraine-Russia engagements, the countermeasures probably deploy to deal with both threats simultaneously. As for the F-35 failure to deploy any countermeasures, no system is 100% fool-proof. It could have just mis-identified the incoming until it was too late, got confused with other ground heat signatures, the missile was outside its detection aspect ratio? Software bug (something the F-35 is infamous for)? etc

      2. Tony Wikrent

        militarywatchmagazine.com provided the details a few days ago.

        https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/footage-f35-iranian-air-defences

        Footage Confirms U.S. F-35 Taken Out By Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Air Defences

        [Military Watch Magazine Editorial Staff, March-19th-2026]

        …The F-35 was conceptualised after the end of the Cold War for an era of warfare in which adversaries would no longer field peer level fighter aircraft, and would instead rely heavily on ground-based air defences as Iran has. Iranian forces have made extensive use of infrared-guided systems to engage targets without emitting radar signatures or alerting targets’ radar warning receivers, with such systems being better optimised to engaging targets like the F-35. Although the F-35 has a reduced heat signature, the reductions made to its radar signature are significantly greater, leaving it relatively more vulnerable to targeting by infrared guided systems….

        I’m not sure exactly who runs Military Watch Magazine. The website says it is based in South Korea, which I think is very interesting given that the Koreans have so far avoided much neoliberal insanity.

        2. PlutoniumKun

          Military Watch mag is a mixed bag – they know their stuff but get quite a lot wrong. They mostly seem to source from industry publications, not online OSINT. I don’t know who is behind it.

          The F-35 strike image is generally accepted as a fake – the imaging does not match other known Iranian IR videos and the IR signal does not match the pattern known for F-35’s. However, a strike definitely occurred – it’s confirmed by US sources. It was most likely a 358 missile, a type of loitering drone munition used by Iran and the Houthis – this is a subsonic weapon generally used for taking out drones. It’s a typically smart, cheap, simple but innovative Iranian design. Most likely it was so some degree a lucky shot combined with an overconfident pilot. The 358 uses a very small warhead so would cause probably survivable damage depending on where it struck.

  6. Quoter

    Flag Officer Imbecility

    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” –Upton Sinclair

    1. Ex-PFC Chuck

      The Sinclair Effect explains the persistence of a wide variety of societal dysfunctions, not least of which is the continuing academic dominance neoclassical economics.

      1. jsn

        It reduces mathematically to Jay Gould’s, “I can pay half the working class to kill the other half.”

        Which I believe remains the simplest and most pointed expression of the problem.

    2. ISL

      Love this quote, but I think Will Shriver is also talking about a Peter Principle – rising to the level of incompetence (and further by ass kissing and political acumen). Competent people tend to have an allergy to ass-kissing and internal politics that makes one need an info shower to clean off the day’s accumulation of sewage.

  7. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Iran’s missiles fired at Diego Garcia

    This may be a dumb question, but do we know where the missiles were fired from? In other words, did they originate inside Iran, or from another country’s territory? Did Iran ever have any subs?

    1. ilsm

      US infrared satellite pick up launch heat. Initial report I saw indicated the launch in central Iran.

      The Arleigh Burke destroyer was likely located northeast of and near Diego Garcia, the SM 3 can intercept some distance from the impact point.

    2. hk

      Iran has more than a dozen subs, mostly (entirely?) Russian-built Kilos. I don’t think they are equipped to launch ballistic missiles, though.

      1. Polar Socialist

        Iran has 3 Kilo-class submarines and 20 Ghadir-class midget submarines. US claims to have sunk the only Fateh-class submarine, but 3 are under construction.

        Kilo and Fateh can launch cruise missiles and torpedoes.

  8. DJG, Reality Czar

    Observations:
    Yves Smith’s mention of the “small country run by yellow communists” and U.S. racism reminds me of U.S. racism toward Iranians, which is a reason for the consistent underestimation of Iranian capabilities. Heck, they are only a bunch of wogs who make a mean platter of dill rice. And fesenjan.

    Further on U.S. racial / hysterical categories, I am reminded regularly here in Torino that I cannot (and Pete Hegseth certainly cannot) tell the difference between an Italian, an Iranian, a Greek, or a Syrian. Walking down the street, I see our usual wog-gy blend, with breadsticks (the Piedmontese pastime, along with communism).

    Which leads me to the U.S. cultural problem now on the verge of disaster: Don’t know much about history. Don’t know much about geography. And the U.S. is now characterized by an economy of skimmers separated from the physical world and its problems (pointed out again by Yves Smith). Note Perera and the twiXt and those agricultural deadlines. Don’t know much about the food I eat…

    Take a look at the maps. Note that inner ring — 300 km / 185 miles. A distance of 185 miles is nothing these days in drone warfare. So Iran controls the whole Persian Gulf and the whole Gulf of Oman.

    What does Kharg Island matter?

    So the U.S. can get some “Iwo Jima photo op” with flags?

    Gramsci: Pessimist because intelligence recognizes the facts. Optimist by will. We just celebrated San Giuseppe, with zeppole. Always a delight, because he is the Father of God and Zeppole. And spring is trying to burst forth in beauty.

    Yet: What is to be done?

    1. pjay

      – “What does Kharg Island matter?”

      Yes, and the same question occurs to me regarding the islands at the mouth of the Strait. I’m assuming that Iran can still launch drones and missiles from inland locations and hit these targets as they are currently hitting targets across the Gulf. Will the presence of US Special Forces taking fire down there convince the oil tankers that everything is A-OK? I’m no military strategist but I’m having a hard time seeing the logic of this threatened land assault.

      On a lighter note: “Don’t know much about history…” etc. Sounds like a challenge to the NC songsters here.

      1. ambrit

        Hmmm… An oldie but goody.
        “I know that one and one makes three,”
        “I disbelieve everything I see,”
        “What a wonderful world,”
        “Will stay free.”

        Sorry, but this lame excuse for a song parody does not come with a money back guarantee.

    2. .Tom

      Thanks for the Gramsci quote. Two days ago from the deck half way up the mountain overlooking the Samana Bay I told my friend J after much rum and grim discourse about what to expect in medium and longer terms, I have to be optimist because: what’s the alternative? Hopelessness and nihilism aren’t my bag. If there is to be a better future, we must make it. Consent to be ruled by our corrupt and incompetent elite is in decline so we should get ready.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Maybe you should have told your friend that optimists say that this is the best of worlds while pessimists fear this to be true. :)

        But the best advice I ever heard was to hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

      2. Jabura Basadai

        .Tom, agree hopelessness and nihilism are a psychological dead end – but there is something between such pessimism and optimism – personally have neither –
        maybe a shoulder shrug, humming that tune from Casablanca –
        ran across an Einstein quote –
        “There are moments when one feels free from one’s own identification with human limitations and inadequacies. At such moments one imagines that one stands on some spot of a small planet, gazing in amazement at the cold yet profoundly moving beauty of the eternal, the unfathomable; life and death flow into one, and there is nether evolution nor destiny; only Being.”
        Albert Einstein

        and a Jiddu Krishnamurti quote –
        “It’s no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.”
        Jiddu Krishnamurti

        or Ron Paul would say –
        “Truth is treason in the empire of lies.”
        Ron Paul

        i’ll leave the slicing and dicing of this situation to y’all who are immensely more knowledgeable –

        Yves, i feel completely humbled not only by your comprehension but your stamina to do this for us –
        thank you a thousand times – safety and good health to Yves – and thanks again –

    3. LY

      I think our host mentioned this before, but Iran has a lot of engineers.

      Personal experience, thirty years ago, at my top US engineering undergrad, I had an electrical engineering professor from Iran. And one of my study partners was on a student visa from Iran. The fact that both were women was not unusual. Study partner and her roommate, also from Iran, told us stories of growing up there. While stuck out for me was how propagandized US is. While they had run ins with the religious police, mainly for mixed gender gatherings, I’d say the freedom and opportunities, including for women, was better than most places in the world.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        When I was an undergrad (mainly before the Shah was overthrown), rich Iranians did not go to Harvard. They went to MIT. Even with Harvard having one of the top two pure math and physics departments in the US, they saw Harvard as unserious.

        1. Trees&Trunks

          Iranians very much admire engineers.
          When I visited Iran I told girls that I studied to economic engineer, with emphasis on engineer, instead of just a shitty business school. It did the trick.

        2. barefoot charley

          I was at the U of C(hicago) when you attended what we called “that East Coast party school.”

          But interestingly, our most famous president, Robert Hutchins, rejected an offer to fund an engineering school at the University, saying he wanted nothing to do with a trade school. Nowadays of course the financial and silicon trades have taken over Chicago too.

        3. juno mas

          . . . and then there are the Chinese students studying at US university. I regularly hear them chastening American students in the method and meaning of Calculus.

          (In perfect English, of course.)

      2. wol

        Back when I did undergrad at a state U with a big chemical engineering department, I knew many Iranian students and got to know some families through my Iranian gf. One thing they had in common was how much they hated the Shah.
        ps- many thanks to Yves for this incredible site.

        1. Jokerstein

          Doing my O-chem PhD in 82-86 we had several Iranian postgrads in the labs workin on liquid crystal compounds.

    4. hk

      Same trick as all those suicidal amphibious assaults across the Dniepr to the Russian side of the Kherson Province, except with the US Marines (and possibly paratroopers) instead of Ukrainian ones. Truly, these people have learned all the wrong lessons from history (paraphrasing AJP Taylor–the problem with history is not that peole don’t learn from the past–they learn all the wrong lessons and apply them to the present.)

    5. ISL

      Certainly, Ukraine has been employing the strategy of suicidal attacks to get a photo op with near 100% losses. Perhaps the strategy has been adopted by the top US brass (who before breakfast must believe 7 impossible things, starting with Russia is losing).

    6. hk

      The Romans, IIRC, did not think peoples of the Mediterranean and the Middle East were of different races. The pasty Northern Europeans, otoh, were a different matter, though. Funny how things changed over past 2000 years….

      1. Giovanni Barca

        The idea that the “Nordics” were a different race from the “alpines” and the Mediterraneans was still au courant up to ww2. Wells in his Outline of History frequently refers to “the dark white races.’ Madison Grant and Lothrop Stoddard were certainly convinced pasty northern Europeans and their yankee-dixie descendants were a different race from southern Europeans and even French and south Germans (all that black hair in München).

  9. Trees&Trunks

    I am confident that there are the equivalent of the Epstein paedophilia and cannibalism files for the Gulf-state families, to the extent they are not there too (e.g. „i loved the torture video“. While they have their religious police whipping people for not wearing hijab or any other silly reason, the princes fly to London to indulge in drugs and ladies and everything else haram. I am confident that this is on film and photo . Moroever the loads of dollares they have stolen from the oil and gas revenues are stashed away in the US and the EU. No way they will tell the US to go … themselves.

    1. Ben Panga

      Epstein supposedly was instrumental in MBS getting the top job over his brother. Whitney Webb has speculated that’s why the CIA (who had been grooming the other guy) turned on Epstein.

      1. vao

        Decidedly, the same villains make an appearance every time there is some ghastly business afoot: CIA, Epstein, Israel, JP Morgan, MI6, etc. Maybe so-called conspiracy theorists are right after all…

  10. Ginger Goodwin

    Excellent review of the current situation. I think that the governing and ruling groups in each Middle Eastern state is caught in a vice: the choice is between supporting the US/Israel or finding some form of political accomodation with Iran. The ruling elite are certain that siding with the US tightens the economic and political screws over their own kindgoms by the policies and financial practices of the US — ie. treated like an 3rd world country material and financial extraction in a one sided equation with crumbs left to the elite and wretched economic conditions for the majority of the population and if this continues the fire sale of much of their infrastucture; or accomodating and hence limiting the physical destruction of the infrastructure, but and a big but, having their accumulated wealth stored in the US/Western European financial institutions seized. Sitting on the fence only makes their situation worse because the relative destruction of their physical structures and the emigration of their “working” population has the same effect as the “either or choices” of choosing a side. Were in it not for the fact that at least 50 % of the population of the Gulf population under normal circumstances would not even be residing in severe water scarce lands, these “monarchies” would not exist in their present Sykes/Picot form. Which leads to the next question: the aftermath of this war regardless of the outcome, will this war ultimately lead to the reshaping/merging/confederation/gobbling up of the present “statelets” as attempted by Saddam Hussein in the early 1990s ? The answer I think is in the affirmative.

    1. mrsyk

      The future sure looks bleak for the GC leadership class with “re-education” being a best case scenario? I wager they are not part of Iran’s vision for the future.

      Sitting on the fence that’s a dangerous sport
      You can even catch a bullet from the peace keeping force
      Even the hero gets a bullet in the chest
      Yes. Once upon a time in the west.

      Dire Straits

  12. mrsyk

    >Consulate General of the I.R. Iran in Mumbai
    @IRANinMumbai
    10h
    “At present, Iran essentially has no floating crude or surplus available for international markets.

    The U.S. Treasury Secretary’s remarks appear aimed at reassuring buyers and managing market sentiment.”

    cross post on Thomas Keith, Nitterpost

  13. Carolinian

    Re Vietnam–the situations aren’t really that analogous. LBJ may have also been out to prove his manhood but but he had an opposition party that was more gung ho than he was and majority public support for the war even years into it. He was also coming off a landslide victory and not a squeaker like Trump.

    No crystal ball here but if you believe that Trump’s goal is always to boost his self imagined Trump cult then doubling down doesn’t make sense. If he walks away now most MAGA would probably applaud and forgive him for the high gas prices. One recent poll said US support for sending in ground troops is 7 percent.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      That is not what Daniel Ellsberg (see his book Secrets) or the Pentagon papers say. The knowledge that we could not win in Vietnam well predates LBJ; if I recall what Ellsberg wrote correctly, he depicts the support despite evidence it would fail extending across five presidencies, as in back to Truman when we backed the French. Eisenhower sent the CIA in. JFK adhered to the domino theory. His CIA backed the coup against and assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem (this incident was an early episode in my development of political awareness and US thuggery; I remember at the age of six my mother being extremely exercised by this US betrayal of an ally).

      So in that light, the Gulf of Tonkin incident was a pretext for US escalation to try to win when we were failing to do so.

      1. JohnnyGL

        There’s a small exhibit in the JFK Museum in Boston where JFK is recorded speaking candidly with a somber, regretful tone about the assassination of Diem. I recall thinking it was rather interesting/curious.

        It’s been years, so I’ve got to paraphrase, but he said something like, “well, yeah, I told them we wouldn’t oppose the plan to oust him, but I didn’t think they were going to KILL him”.

        It came across to me at the time as a moment where some of that naivete that JFK might have had when he arrived in the oval office was getting shattered.

      2. Carolinian

        I just read a book about the Diem coup which Kennedy regretted because he thought Diem would not be killed. It says he was indeed planning to pull out after an easy win against Goldwater in ’64.

        But Kennedy was in many ways as wishy washy and floundering as more recent administrations. And he bequeathed his ‘best and brightest’ advisers to LBJ and they were the ones–particularly McNamara–who pushed for escalation even though many at the time thought the war unwinnable with the conventional war American army. By this account LBJ was very torn about what to do with the situation handed to him. However according to Robert Caro Lyndon’s great idol was FDR and so he wanted to have his own Great Society New Deal and to be a war president.

        For sure one could say that the current DC elites for whatever reason are as obsessed with the Middle East as the sixties elites were with the Cold War and fear of Communism. But that recent motive has been a very hidden and the more Trump acts explicitly in the interests of Israel the more the US public are opposed. LBJ had a lot more political running room.

      3. ilsm

        William Prochnau was reporting from South Vietnam from early 1963. He wrote: Once Upon a Distant War: David Halberstam, Neil Sheehan, Peter Arnett–Young War Correspondents and Their Early Vietnam Battles.

        They were all reporting on shortcomings and fictions about US operations in South Vietnam.

        A friend of mine a Green Beret veteran with two tours “advising” gave me his copy of the book relating to me “we had no chance” his observation was corruption and unpopularity of the Saigon puppets.

      4. pjay

        Regarding Carolinian’s original comment, it seems important to distinguish disagreements among elites within the national security establishment from public perceptions and sentiment. With Vietnam most of the public supported the US effort in the earlier years, not really having any sense of what was going on over there. On the other hand there were a few early voices of reason, like William Proxmire, that were brave enough or secure enough to challenge the overwhelmingly dominant Cold War narrative. Progressives like to think the anti-war movement was crucial. But I don’t believe the general public turned against the war until a significant segment of the elite decided to cut our losses. Their skepticism began to be reflected in the mainstream media, from Uncle Walter Cronkite to the Pentagon Papers.

        Public sentiment is much different today. There was considerable opposition to this folly from the beginning. But public perceptions of this war are much more fragmented and partisan, reflecting the media sources from which various segments of the population get their information. That’s why I think those on the right who are challenging Trump – Carlson, Kent, etc. – are so important. They threaten to break through the MAGA consciousness that Fox News and the administration and the neocons behind them are trying so desperately to control.

        On the other hand, the neocons seem to control the administration today while Establishment doubters appear impotent. “Liberal” media sources like the NY Times write about how dangerous and despicable the Iranian “regime” is and criticize Trump on shallow procedural criteria rather than on his fundamental goal. And aside from a few heroes like Massie, Congress is completely worthless.

        1. juno mas

          As someone who lived through Korea (1950), Vietnam (1955-75) and now the current Fury, your historical observations are quite sound.

    2. Ex-PFC Chuck

      Re Lyndon Johnson & and the Vietnam war:

      “I cannot get out of Vietnam, John. My friends are making too much money.”

      President Lyndon Johnson, to his CIA Vietnam briefer Col. John Downie in 1966, who regularly urged him to take that course. As quoted by William Pepper in The Plot To Kill King:The Truth Behind The Assassination of Martin Luther King, page xxxiv.

    1. vao

      I doubt that Trump will be able to squeeze in through the small aperture leading to his hiding lair — and that he will bear living there in indigent conditions, even for just one day.

      1. Dr. John Carpenter

        Even if he could, he couldn’t survive the hiding part, not using social media and laying low and whatnot.

  15. Pearl Rangefinder

    On the helium supply squeeze, it should be noted that the United States once operated a National Helium Reserve for precisely the purposes of mitigating supply squeezes of strategic resources like this, although originally the strategic importance was for things like airships, reflecting the original legislation made in the 1920s: (Wikipedia) National Helium Reserve

    The National Helium Reserve, also known as the Federal Helium Reserve, was a strategic reserve of the United States, which once held over 1 billion cubic meters (about 170,000,000 kg)[a] of helium gas. The helium is stored at the Cliffside Storage Facility about 12 miles (19 km) northwest of Amarillo, Texas, in a natural geologic gas storage formation, the Bush Dome[2] reservoir. The reserve was established with the enactment of the Helium Act of 1925. The strategic supply provisioned the noble gas for airships, and in the 1950s became an important source of coolant during the Cold War and Space Race.
    …
    By 1995, a billion cubic metres of the gas had been collected, and the reserve was US$1.4 billion in debt, prompting Congress to begin phasing out the reserve in 1996.[5][6] The resulting Helium Privatization Act of 1996 (Public Law 104–273) directed the Department of the Interior to start selling off the reserve by 2005
    …
    The auction of the last helium assets was due to take place in November, 2023.[13] Though the last of the Cliffside reserve was to be sold by November 2023, more natural gas was discovered at the site than was previously known, and the Bureau of Land Management extended the auction to January 25, 2024 to allow for increased bids.[14] In 2024 the remaining reserve was sold to the highest bidder, Messer Group.[15]

    Muh Markets! strikes again. And all to “save” a paltry $1.4 billion dollars, the kind of chump change that Uncle Sucker loses in the sofas of Congress daily. Neoliberalism and friends is truly in the running for stupidest political ideology of modern times.

      1. The Rev Kev

        I think that we all know the answer to that one. The needs of the chip-fabs must come before the needs of the many.

        2. mrsyk

          Who needs MRIs when we have AI diagnosis, lol.
          Seriously though, is the closure of the strait the end to western AI?

      2. Cine Tee

        In the long term, most current MRI installations can replace the cryo-magnet with a zero boil-off or dry magnet. The upgrades are readily available now, though it can cost as much as a new machine.

        In the short term, maybe slow down the production of AI chips.

        1. Revenant

          Currently consulting on the MRI space. The zero boil-off magnets are guaranteed for a period (10 years, IIRC) then the unit needs servicing. 0.7l of He in each magnet for one manufacturer.

        2. Jokerstein

          Meh, those machines wouldn’t be any fun if you can’t experience a quench…

          They’re even more fun if caused inadvertently by the magnet pulling a nickel spatula from your lab coat pocket down into its throat.

      3. marku52

        I just passed a store selling helium birthday balloons. Stupidest use of a non-renewable ever.

        That was after holding my “NO WAR” sign at busy intersection. About 30-1 positives.

        I got yelled at “Go home you fucking commie!” That was special

  16. J_Schneider

    Helium – market reports say that there is a new Gazprom gas processing plant in Komsomolsk on Amur able to supply 30% of current demand. The plant has been either commissioned or is right before completion.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Thanks for this intel but….

      1. That still leaves a lot short

      2. Even if about to start, it would still have to get its supply to buyers. Russia would need to enter into contracts and sort out delivery. That does not happen automagically and even with urgency, would take months.

      3. Those dates be the LNG only and not for the resulting helium. It is mainly produced as a by-product of steel manufacturing. That may add complexity to the logistical issues.

      4. One has to think Russia will prioritize China and Southeast Asian countries that either are friendlies or made a solid effort at being neutral. I doubt that Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea will be on their favored buyers’ list.

      1. Revenant

        Helium is “produced” (really recovered, separated, like cream from milk) wherever there is an air or natural gas liquefaction plant. It is a “by-product” of the production of bulk liquid oxygen and nitrogen. Steel-making requires liquid oxygen, hence the relationship with steel. Helium a high value product but it would have to be, given the need to cool the air close to absolute zero to condense the helium (so it is not really a by-product, you have to deliberately strive to condense it out!).

        Interestingly, the Ukraine is a major producer of neon. Presumably from its natural gas but I have not checked.

        1. Windall

          Ukraine produced neon in Mariupol, wich is now in Russian hands and in Odessa, wich likely will be in Russian hands after the war.

  17. ChrisFromGA

    Re: Jet fuel shortages, high prices

    Anyone want to lay odds on another airline industry bailout, say by July 4th?

    I smell “stimmy checks” in our future here in the good ole USA, just in time for the midterms!

    1. mrsyk

      Yes, but I’m thinking the alternate to a bail out is something to behold. Neither path looking fun.

      1. ilsm

        Is the impending round of quantitative easing going to be $4T or 6T?

        Fed Balance sheet is less than $2T down from Covid highs.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Arguably, printing into the maw of a supply shock is the worst possible thing they could do. While Europe rations fuel, and Indians starve, fat, ugly Americans go on cruises, riot over the last organic free-range chicken at Whole Foods, and blow their stimmy checks in Vegas.

          Of course, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

          1. mrsyk

            Lol, I’ve been told running as the Austerity! candidate is a difficult path, although I honestly don’t know if that’s relevant anymore.

    2. upstater

      United Airlines CEO thinks high fuel costs are an advantage in a Friday night happy talk to employees:

      United Hopes To Turn High Oil Prices Into An Advantage, As It Cuts Flights OMAAT

      The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks. If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B.

      That may sound scary, but the first piece of good news is that, for now at least, demand remains the strongest we’ve ever seen. The 10 biggest booked revenue weeks in our history have been the last 10 weeks.

      United has considerable exposure in East Asia and the west Pacific. These areas have the greatest problem with even getting jet fuel, much less the current 2x pricing above Brent crude. Kirby’s happy talk might be a bit gloomier in a few months. They will be parking many of those widebodies in Arizona.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Three-hour TSA lines and five-hour hold times trying to get to a live agent would like to enter the chat.

  18. Ben Panga

    The only plausible reason I can see that the US would try to take Kharg is so Trump can boast about how he’s been saying it should be done since 1988 and he’s finally done it.

    Trump in 1988 Guardian interview:

    “I’d be harsh on Iran. They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools. One bullet shot at one of our men or ships and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it. Iran can’t even beat Iraq, yet they push the United States around. It’d be good for the world to take them on”.

    His ego is big enough. Probably fantasising about calling it Trump island.

    My ignorant guess: either the islands Iran has which the UAE contests, the toll-booth, or a disastrous attempt to grab the uranium.

    All these seem insane, but why would that stop them!

    1. JohnnyGL

      It might be the right approach to focus on the older Trump thoughts and remarks because as people slip into dementia, they often forget stuff from the past 10 years, but vividly recall, and dwell on, things from 30 years ago.

      If demented Trump really does have a hand in guiding this operation…a big if, of course…

    2. jsn

      It reduces mathematically to Jay Gould’s, “I can pay half the working class to kill the other half.”

    3. jsn

      This bias of Trumps would be known to Netanyahu who would encourage it to get a bunch of Marines slaughtered in order to get Trump to recommit to the cause.

      At what point in all of this does it appear Trump has acted on information coming from anywhere but Israel?

    2. Sunlight Disinfects

      Charlie Kirk was a prominent Conservative that had views similar to Tucker and MTG.

      Prior to Trump’s bombing of Iran in June 2025, Charlie Kirk forcefully spoke against USA waging war with Iran and called those who argued for an attack on Iran “pathologically insane”.

      He warned against the “ideological fervor” of neocons, pointing to previous failures in the Middle-East.

      Joe Kent – who just resigned from the Trump Admin – related how Charlie urged him to help keep USA out of war with Iran when he saw him in the White House in June 2026.

      = =

      FYI

      Kirk was the politically powerful leader of a Conservative Youth Movement with millions of followers.

      He had also become critical of Israel’s cruelty in Gaza and urged Trump to release the Epstein files.

      He was assassinated on September 10.

      After his assassination, his organization TPUSA 1) supported a nonsensical “official narrative” of the assassination and 2) has ignored Charlie’s objections to Netanyahu’s policies and differences with Trump.

      1. Pat

        Not only has he been silenced, his organization has been compromised on these issues,,,by his wife.

        I will give you that he was smarter then the rest of the groups who have pushed their oppressive and authoritarian agenda, but keeping the remainder of that agenda and the money pushing it brings was far more important to Turning Points post him so it doesn’t much matter now.

        1. Sunlight Disinfects

          It hasn’t “mattered” until now because: 1) there was no war so motive wasn’t clear; 2) his removal was covered up. Trump Admin has assisted that cover up by supporting a narrative that makes no sense.

          Joe Kent has told us that no dissenting opinions were allowed in decision-making about Iran after Trump bombed Iran in June 2025. Others have confirmed the disconnect between US IC and Trump and his political advisors.

          It seems likely that this was a war that was long-planned and that Israel and the whole Zionist influence apparatus took the lead on arranging and advocating. There was no “choice”. No debate allowed. Charlie was an obstacle . . . so he was removed.

          Charlie matters as much as other obstacles that have been eliminated: JFK, MLK, etc.

          1. Pat

            Show me where MLK enabled and helped put his assassins in power.

            A more apt comparison would be the whistleblowers who eventually got fed up with the corrupt organization they were part of and get executed by that organization before the“come to Jesus” conversion can stop the criminal action from happening and victimizing multitudes.

            It matters, but only as evidence of conspiracy and as a missed warning. The disaster still happened, in this case by people he actively helped put in position to do it.

  20. Sunlight Disinfects

    Nitpick: Yawah instead of Jesus?

    Hegseth and Huckabee are outspoken Christian Zionists. If Trump was a Christian Zionist, he doesn’t have to hide it.

    But he is coy about what his beliefs and motivations are.

    We know that he has lied about who he is – “populist”, “self-funded”, “peacemaker”, etc. – but maybe his biggest lie is a lie of omission? Jewish influences on Trump (Roy Cohn, Epstein, Kirchner) appear to be stronger than Christian influences.

    Maybe that’s why the Trump Admin has gone along with the “official narrative” (coverup) of the Charlie Kirk assassination. Charlie was a Christian friend and political supporter of Trump who had turned from a big supporter of Israel to a big critic. He was vehemently opposed to USA participation in a war against Iran.

    Joe Kent told Tucker Carlson that he was prevented from investigating Charlie’s assassination. That had already been leaked months ago. And now that Kent has resigned, he is under investigation for leaking.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Larry Wilkerson has repeatedly spoken in his YouTube talks of servicemembers being forced to attend prayer meetings and given pep talks of the “Jesus is behind us” sort. The military is touting Jesus, not the Old Testament god.

      Chas Freeman has repeatedly pointed out that Christian Zionists support Zionism because the destruction of Jerusalem is necessary for the Second Coming, and that that is hardly a view Conservative or Orthodox Jews would see as consistent with their religion.

      1. Es s Ce Tera

        I would love to know what was going through the minds of the service members attending these. Do they see the similarites between themselves and the Roman empire? Do they recall from scripture how Pilate was reluctant to crucify Jesus, could find no reason to, it was obvious even to him he was innocent? Do they recall from scripture how it was the Pharisees who forced his hand? Do they see the similarities to the present situation?

          1. chuck roast

            Let me know when he has a message for the parish priests to deliver next Sunday concerning the immorality and illegality of American and Israeli aggression, and Catholics of good conscience should resist this action.

            1. vidimi

              exactly. he both-sides Gaza, Iran, but is unequivocal on Ukraine. didn’t expect anything else from an american pope

              1. hk

                Ukraine, ever since the Union of Brest, has been the cause of Catholic crusade against the “Greek Schismatics” in Moscow. That part is not surprising, especially for someone who chose the same name as Leo XIII who was a big champion of the Eastern (Slavic) Catholics.

            2. Carsten

              Earlier this week, someone here commented that there are really only two models of Catholicism in the United States; Francisco Franco and Dorothy Day. Pope Leo XIV himself probably leans more towards the latter. I wonder how many parish priests lean, if not outright are in the camp of the former, and would refuse the Pope’s message.

              1. chuck roast

                I was gabbing with an ex-Catholic boy in grad school, and we were discussing Dorothy Day. He said, “Yeah you know roast, when Dorothy Day died her body turned to diamonds and she floated up to heaven.”

          2. ilsm

            Leo XIV is an Augustinian. St Augustine is notorious for establishing “Just War” Doctrine which let Christians kill for the Roman empire.

            I note the US’ actions, in my lifetime and service to the US, violate most of the 6 tenets.

            The pope should be shouting “anathema”, excommunicating all who serve the US empire.

            In Lent which ends in two weeks the US Catholics observe “40 days of life” solely condemning abortion while not one word about the immensely evil US war machine that slaughters huge numbers of innocents for empire!

            Pray for peace and the conversion of the US and the Vatican.

      2. flora

        The Christian zios seem overtaken by the proud spirit, or the prowde spirite in Thomas More’s wording. The zios appear to think they can control God’s timetable: if they build it, He will come.

    2. ilsm

      The inscription around the swastika on a Nazi soldier’s belt buckle brought home from WW II: Gottmitt Unz.

      1. caucus99percenter

        The real-life ending of a Truman Show-like set-up.

        Charlie, like Jim Carrey’s Truman Burbank character, was beginning to wake up to his actual situation and the reality behind the appearances of people and things.

        In the movie, Truman escapes from the studio and the puppet-master is forced to end the live broadcast feed.

        In the real-life version that Charlie was starring in, it looks like the puppet-masters who bankroll the whole political circus in America … weren’t about to allow Charlie to escape.

  21. Ann

    NATO pulls several hundred personnel from Iraq amid Iran war

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nato-personnel-pulled-iraq-iran-war/

    Iran says it will allow Japanese ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz

    Japan sources more than 90 percent of its crude oil imports from the Middle East and is heavily dependent on exports transiting the key waterway.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/iran-says-it-will-allow-japanese-ships-to-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz

    Extends Eid, Nowruz greetings: PM speaks with Iran President, flags attacks on energy infra, shipping lanes
    This is Modi’s second phone conversation with Pezeshkian since the war broke out on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

    https://indianexpress.com/article/india/pm-modi-iran-president-eid-nowruz-condemn-attacks-pezeshkian-10594142/

    1. The Rev Kev

      Japan, China, India, and Pakistan get passage? Looks like Iran wants to play nice with the East. Even if the Iranians eventually charge a 10% toll, it would still be a bargain for these countries. I hope that Sri Lanka gets some fuel too soon. And the West? Iran will probably tell them to go pound sand.

      2. Will

        Misleading headline re Japan. From the article:

        “We are talking to them to find a way to pass safely. We are ready to provide them with safe passage. All they need to do is contact us to discuss how this route will be,” Araghchi said, according to an English transcript of the interview shared on his Telegram account.

        Are they talking now or are the Iranians willing to talk if contacted by the Japanese? Regardless, the headline for the article is misleading. Japan like any other country will be allowed to transit Hormuz if approved by Iran but that approval has not been given, as stated in the article (emphasis added):

        Japan may soon join the small cohort of countries – mainly China, India, and Pakistan – whose vessels have been allowed to transit the waterway in recent days, with approval from Iranian authorities.

        Re India

        Do they have blanket permit to traverse Hormuz or are they negotiating (paying) on a case by case basis? IIRC the passage of the first tanker coincided with India arranging for the safe return of sailors from the Iranian boat stranded in India after the U.S. sub sank another ship from the group of three visiting India. The third ship took refuge in Sri Lanka. The second India tanker allowed through coincided with the arrival in Iran of an Indian ship carrying medical supplies.

  22. Pearl Rangefinder

    Just spitballing, but would another reason to insist on Yuan payments perhaps be to ultimately set up a sort of Persian Gulf “escrow” system as a kind of future compliance regime? I am envisioning a future peace deal with the Chinese acting as a guarantor via holding all the payments in the Chinese controlled payments system; any “non-compliant” countries (to be determined by the Iranians) would have their export payments frozen. Something along these lines anyway – Iran has been at the receiving end of these types of financial shenanigans for decades, so I could see them relishing the prospect of turning the tables completely once this is over.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      The Chinese are all about commerce. They would not want to use a payments system as a coercion tool.

      And we engaged in that sort of abuse for our own ends, not for allies. Iran hatred goes back to the Iran hostage crisis. A young Donald Trump even weighed in on it at the time, taking almost personal offense at what he saw as US humiliation.

    2. ISL

      Iran could insist on payment of the toll in gold. The currency of the actual purchase seems unimportant (long term) to Iran except for their own oil.

      This is separate from a revised security architecture in the Gulf with Iranian bases in the GCC to ensure the US does not return for several lifetimes. As per Hudson, the US dollar will extend the Iranian Rial’s heft (in the Gulf). Certainly with rebuilding Iran state of the art – Iran will need lots of Yuan.

        1. Ginger Goodwin

          Agreed.

          The drones have changed the situation completely. Even if Iran runs out of missiles, the drones have proven very effective in keeping the region on a war footing for a very long time. Captal as a rule wants stability, hence, flees unstable areas except for those with a penchant for profit making in the direst of circumstances.

          It is arguable that historically the US has waged only one war that was not by choice. US history has been conditioned by that fact leading to wild speculations as to the consequence of that situation: the supposed isolationism and exceptionalism of the US.

          In the latest developments in the war of choice by the US/Israel Iran negotiates terms of passage through the Strait based on friend/enemy and the toll and payment for the product(s) in yuan. Game changer. Paraphrasing Marx’s distinction between actors’ decisions being made “in-themselfves” and “for-themselves”, the latter demonstrates acting consciously in one’s interests. The former decisions are made as a result of force — inescapable and not able to do otherwise or in other words, the subject has no agency. Right now Iran is acting under-force, Wait until they start acting consciously and actively. This situation is also a game changer for the whole of the South and Third World. Samir Amin in the last years of his life advocated “de-linking” from the “world” economy as it is presently configured. This has been misinterpreted as no trade. Not so, Amin was advocating what BRICS, etc. are attempting to do and that is – carve a “space” outside and beyond the current “world trade system” as defined by Andre Gunder Frank and a host of world economic system theorists like Wallerstein et al. and beginning in the 1950s in the Latin American school supported by ECLA. HIstorically Braudel was of that school but he confined his work to Europe. Wallerstein was also misinterpreted: his analysis was purely analytical and not prescriptive. Amin’s work was prescriptive and this model is slowly being put into practice. Given the “longevity” of the current world system dating back to Columbus, it is not realistic to forecast a fully formed alternative. But if one’ bases oneself on the development of the current “for-itself-capitalism”, the current alternative will be centuries in the making. Marx also said before he died that a model of the future for capitalist “states” or nations, and, especially, imperial and sub-imperial ones, that one had only to follow the UK’s historical trajectory. The UK is not a pretty sight presently.

      2. lyman alpha blob

        Iran might be better off to insist on zero military bases in the GCC. US bases made those countries targets for Iran and Iranian bases would make them targets for the US/Zionist entity. If Iran can drive the US out, they could still make defensive pacts with the GCC and then have geography on their side in case the US got any revanchist ideas. The US is already extremely wary of Iranian missile and drone capabilities. Without bases, they really need to keep their distance to avoid very embarrassing losses.

        The zealots in the US military would be wise to open up that Book they rarely actually read and realize that they have already been weighed and found wanting.

  24. Expat2uruguay

    Yves, the tweet from globe observer, following this text, may not have been what you intended:

    More on “The war situation has developed not necessarily to the advantage of the US and Israel”:

    thank you so much for the continuing coverage, you’re amazing!

  25. Doggo

    Larry Johnson at Sonar21 says that sending those Marine units and those assault ships to Middle East is likely a deception, because who would be so stupid as to announce your real military operations beforehand to the world?

    Well I hate to break it to Larry, but we are that stupid. By we I mean the United States. The ruling elites that are in power in Washington DC, the military-industrial complex, the “swamp”, are really that stupid.

    They used to hold press conferences in 2023 and Victoria Nuland would go on camera and announce that we will be starting a new offensive this summer. “We” meaning the American generals and officers commanding the Ukrainian troops on the ground. And we are going to take Melitopol and reach the sea of Azov and sever the Russian land bridge to Crimea and this is how we’re going to defeat Russia and win this war. And then they really went ahead and did exactly what they said they were going to do. Aside from the winning part (because they got smashed by the Russians who knew of the attack in advance, thanks to the US govt announcements on TV). But other than the failure to win the battle, they really did what hey said they were going to do.

    1. ilsm

      The two Amphib Groups, one with well docks and one heavy on MV 22 could be a “cavalry” force to attempt to rescue/bail out delta force troops hung up on some Iranian nuclear site…..

      In the GWOT regular infantry was usually put on alert to bail out special ops forces nearby.

      1. chuck roast

        They are going to call it Operation Hotel California…
        “We are programmed to receive
        You can check out any time you like
        But you can never leave”

    2. Es s Ce Tera

      The US also massed amphib forces for a purported invasion of Venezuela only to do something else instead.

      1. hk

        On a larger scale, the same with Kuwait in 1991. The question is what alternatives are available, where, with what resources, today.

    3. tegnost

      When the history books get written the Ukraine war will figure prominently as it is where US weapons systems proved lackluster in every way except how much money they cost.

      2. ChrisFromGA

        Here’s a tip – you can link to a YouTube video at a particular point in time as follows:

        https://youtu.be/MJGlCLKbQaw?t=257

        (Goes right to the point where Ahhnold explains how he’s gonna kill the bad guy.)

        (the t= parameter is found by going to that point in the video, and right clicking; then”copy video URL at current time.)

      1. Sunlight_Disinfects

        How many “holy shit” moments before people start to reevaluate who Trump is?

        This is why I wonder if Trump is much more ideological than we have been led to believe. His recent actions are not those of a practical, “transactional” person.

        It’s one surprise development after another:

        1. Attacks during peace negotiations where Trump could’ve secured a much better deal than JCPOA (and retained his “peacemaker” mantle);

        2. OKs an attack on Iran’s oil;

        3. And now: OKs an attack on Iran’s nuclear facility.

        So when everyone wonders when the war will end, I think: if Trump is an ideologue, it will only end with total victory.

        Likewise: will Trump send ground forces? Ideological Trump will definitely do so.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          I am not a fan of Robert Barnes, but he recently had a very good interview (can’t recall where, not The Duran) where he really turned on Trump, said he did not know what had happened to him, the current Trump was a marked departure from the one he’d known for a long time.

          1. Bazarov

            Trump is the right-wing bircher “Hope and Change” candidate.

            All betrayals like with Obama. I was at Obama’s inauguration. I remember hearing his shockingly milquetoast inaugural address and thinking “Oh man, this guy’s an empty suit. Everyone’s gonna be pissed.”

            Trump is like that but on steroids for the right.

            I’ve told friends and family for many years that one issue no president can oppose is the Empire. It’s that issue that unites the Republicans and Democrats like a solder.

            Even Bernie Sanders would’ve been had a hawkish foreign policy. The end of the Empire is the end of America’s privileged place in the world and the privileges Americans depend upon for their inflated standard of living. It’s non-negotiable. I suspect, if push comes to shove and there’s no other choice, that they’d push through draft to defend it.

        2. hk

          I’d say Trump is not even an ideologue: ideological people believe in things, which constrain their actions. I have no idea what, if anything, restrains Trump. His behavior is completely erratic and nonsensical.

          1. Sunlight Disinfects

            No. Trump has been very consistent about some things like increasing military funding by USA and allies and support for family-friend Netanyahu and Israel.

          2. dingusansich

            A working theory on this guy: He does stuff that blows through boundaries (truth, logic, custom, decorum, law, sanity) for what we’ll loosely call reasons (impulse, spite, anger, half-baked schemes, because he can), and when things go fubar, as they frequently do (six bankruptcies), he denies what he did, lies about it, blames someone else, comes up with contradictory excuses and bullshit rationalizations, attacks the messengers, and changes the subject. Then he does it again.

            The guy’s a yahoo. He throws feces, then reacts to what ensues (outrage, cheers, retaliation, sucking up, whatever). He’s uninformed, except via echo chambers and sycophantic cronies, not just because he’s grandiose but because he sees no need for facts or expertise. He’s a cartoon version of what Rove described to Suskind, with even less grounding in ordinary thought and feeling because he’s a Cluster B who’s two or more standard deviations from the bell curve’s ringer.

            The good news is, when things sour he can change course (only to repeat the same shtick later, ad infinitum) by coming up with some nonsense to say this was the plan all along and it was pure genius and a massive success. The bad news is, six bankruptcies, which means he can screw up bigly and has done so often, and the ethical compass of a psychopath. As the title of a book about him cheerfully puts it, everything Trump touches dies.

            I went into this further on Substack in a post called Ubu Why: A Heuristic.

          3. Es s Ce Tera

            Or, the ideology is precisely the erratic and nonsensical, he is the Leader and the population is being trained and conditioned via the erratic and nonsensical to understand that:

            “The only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president,” Gabbard said

            and

            “It is not the intelligence community’s responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat,” Gabbard said. “That is up to the president,

            and

            Trump: “I am the Decider”

            Trump: “I decide what America First means.”

            and

            Congress does not determine when and where the country goes to war, the president does. (Long established)

            and

            The supreme court serves at the discretion and pleasure of the president. (Long established)

            and

            The president can extrajudicially execute anyone, anywhere, without due process or evidence. (Precedent set previously by earlier regimes.)

            and

            The president is above the law, can pardon or criminalize or imprison anyone as he pleases, with or without charge. (Precedent set previously by earlier regimes.)

            and

            ICE and DHS are the President’s personal agencies, responsible for rounding up anyone the President pleases.

            and

            The President of the United States is the Emperor of the World and the United States military serves him unconditionally and at his personal pleasure.

            and

            All other countries in the world must serve the President of the United States.

            and

            Women are inferior.

        3. Revenant

          Maybe. But I chair a company where a client just appointed a new CEO. He rings up and says he’s going to restructure. We shouldn’t expect to get paid for our software – ever. We said we have a contract. He says he’ll just liquidate the subsidiary that is our counterparty.

          Some people are all escalation….

          1. The Rev Kev

            Should tell the sob that he had better hope that there aren’t any backdoors in the software that will shut down if there is no payment coming.

      2. anahuna

        When even the supremely eloquent Yves…

        Increasingly, for all of us, “and so it goes” is being replaced by “Holy shit!”

      2. Revenant

        Irreplaceable nuclear scientists don’t live in the reactor core, they live in the adjacent city. I hate to see Israeli-style murder of the cohabitants of buildings but I would imagine Iran just blew up a VIP housing block. Killing Israel’s scientists does a lot more damage than failing to blow up the containment structure at Dimona and a lot less damage than succeeding!

    4. Irrational

      Al Mayadeen “Breaking” banner (paraphrasing): Israeli specialists responding as 20 buildings in Dimona hit.

    1. Solideco

      Agreed.

      Murray argues (suggests?) that the Iran war was premeditated based on 2025 events – Interceptors orders, etc, plus events in Venezula.

      What if Trump’s apparently chaotic thought processes and intuitive decision making are all a blind, a charade? What if we are really witnessing, in the Middle East and more widely, a carefully constructed plan with very definite objectives? Has Trump in fact “planned each charted course, each careful step along the byway”, while flinging the chaff of apparent chaos? I realise that this is not intuitive, but bear with me…

      What kicked off my thinking was the revelation by Lockheed Martin that they had been instructed by Trump, months in advance of the attack on Iran, to massively increase production of interceptor missiles, with a short term goal of quadrupling capacity of THAAD. In January, before the start of the current conflict, Fox News was already reporting on various deals, including a trebling of PAC3 MSE interceptor deliveries, having been finalised between Lockheed and the Department of War.

      1. The Rev Kev

        But with this war those interceptors will run out before long. The result? There are about 650 Patriot missiles manufactured each year as a lot of it is done by hand but lets say that they get it up to about 730. So at the end of each day, two Patriot missiles are finished. They are then taken to an airbase where a military transport flies them to Israel rather than a defenseless US base. They are then loaded up into a Patriot battery where both missiles are fired off in order to intercept one Iranian drone which they may or may not hit. This is the future.

        And in passing, less than 100 THAAD interceptor missiles are manufactured per year.

        1. Solideco

          Agreed, the missile math doesn’t add up. However, Murray is suggesting that the order for greater missile production months before the initial attack suggest the attack was planned and thus the interceptors would be needed. Further that the “Israel dragged the US into the war” explanation is, at best, cover for a decision made earlier last year.

          1. cfraenkel

            We were running out of interceptors in Ukr before we started running out in Isr.

            (… ok, not of Thaads, but if you’re doing the one, might as well do the others)

        2. Irrational

          Indeed, when it comes to running out of missiles it seems US, Israel are first.
          I also have trouble believing that the cited increase in production capacity was because of Iran. The lead times would seem too long for that, so surely this was intended for China?
          Perhaps I am clutching at straws,because if Craig Murray is right, we are heading for dark times – no off-ramps.

          1. NotTimothyGeithner

            The production increase is a joke. For the Patriots, that is about 40 more missiles they can intercept if they only fire two interceptors and have a 100% success rate. This is more about the Colonialist mindset of US foreign policy establishments. The Iranians built an 11 foot ladder, so we will build an 11’1″ which the Iranians will never figure out.

        3. redleg

          4x 90 or 600 is still less than the burn rate. But oh boy are the manufacturers making money!

          Unless and until production is nationalized, any increases are simply a way to accelerate looting of public coffers.

          1. Glen

            Exactly!

            I know the tautology is “America’s MIC is still making them by hand” to explain away the differences with the rest of the world, but the reality is even worse. I doubt that there are significant differences in the levels of technology or automation used in the manufacturing of these items (except maybe China, they are seriously ahead in automation, but Russia, Iran? Get real!). What those other nations don’t have is American CEOs and MBAs.

            But what Iran and Russia do have is rail lines going to China and no shortages of critical material required to make more missiles and drones.

      2. ISL

        Alistair Crooke has been explicit that the decision to attack was made in December. However, its damn obvious the plan was for a weekend war – why are the marines needing three weeks to arrive (not pre-positioned)? Why were adequate AD missiles not at the irreplaceable radar installations ot last more than two days? And on and on.

        1. tegnost

          Could it be the massive blind spot was the genocide which in the domestic arena had been squashed, but in the global arena was reviled. What in other times might have been negotiable became non negotiable to broader populations and the davos crowd (whom are pretty sure they rule the world) are unable to grok this fact leaving us in the current impasse. For all we know this plan is 10 years old and written on a stone tablet, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

          1. ISL

            The plan was the same old same old – CIA incites minorities to protest, CIA agents turn the protests violent, start a civil war, fund the opposition – see Ukraine war.

            Unfortunately for the bad (genocidal) guys, it didn’t work, and they shifted to the escalation ladder without the military-industrial strength, adequate stocks, psyops to solidify public support, and a doctrine and hardware for 20th-century warfare, whereas Iran is applying 21st-century warfare.

            Ukraine revealed who is swimming without a swimsuit.

            1. amfortas

              ahem…paul wolfowitz(sp-3), and zbignew(not even gon try).
              this is just that last step in the plan…a few years delayed.
              except that it doesnt really look like “winning”, to me.
              and aside from chaos, were afghanistan,iraq, syria, libya, et alia anything like actual “wins”? ukraine? lol.
              seems chaos is the point…for at least 40 years.
              and that opens a whole can’o’worms regarding motivations and end-goals of
              “our betters”…whats the goal? is there one? under what possible metric do “they” measure “success”?
              is it merely “keep the money flowing to us and maintain global power at all costs”?
              thats not the world i have ever wanted to live in.

      3. ilsm

        Shortages of US’ not so reliable nor accurate high tech wunderwaffen were identified last June!

        The first milestone is finding “floor space”, some of the big guys may have some of that identified. The next milestone which should have started last July is setting up supply chains. This is problematic as each wunderwaffen depends on rare earth metals, which are only available in quantity from China!

        Next they have to find technicians! Then the drawings, bills of materials and detailed fabrication instructions and standards. After that to “sell” the wunderwaffen are required labs and test and acceptance procedures.

        All in all US should see quadruple (not enough increase if started delivery in July 2025) expansion of wunderwaffen deliveries in about 10 years.

        Finding up and coming managers is a problem! This is a train wreck!

        Given all this why not design wunderwaffen that work!

    2. Sunlight Disinfects

      People are finally waking up to Trump’s deliberate deceptions.

      He has lied so much about who he is (“self-funded”, “populist”, “peacemaker”, etc.) that we have to wonder … what are we missing? what has he kept from us?

      Is his extreme actions because he is compromised? or is he really, fundamentally, an ideologue?

      1. lyman alpha blob

        He, like all presidents of the last few decades at least, and maybe longer, isn’t the one driving policy or calling the shots. Unlike most other presidents however, and despite his claims of self funding, he has been pretty clear about who is calling the shots. He is not shy about naming the oligarchs who have financed his rise to chief pitch man of the empire. Multiple factions stand to benefit, and the attempt at gaining a “Greater Israel” is just icing on the cake for the cabal of vicious religious zealots looking to recreate a regional kingdom that never really existed in the first place,

        1. Sunlight Disinfects

          One can surmise that the oligarchs and vicious religious zealots backed Trump because THEY KNEW he would deliver.

          Did they have that certainty because Trump was compromised by Epstein files or because Trump was clearly, without question, an ideological compatriot?

          = =

          The deceptions continue.

          For example: some are now saying that Zionists convinced Trump that Iran was behind assassination attempts against him.

          That ‘back story’ is supposed to explain Trump’s extraordinary and extreme actions against Iran.

          But it isn’t logical. Much more likely that Trump was already on board and that those behind his rise KNEW that Trump would deliver. That he would not be the “peacemaker” that he repeatedly claimed to be. Just as he wasn’t going to clean the swamp or prosecute Hillary.

          Oligarchs and religious zellots aren’t prone to hopium. They wouldn’t gamble that they MIGHT SOMEHOW convince Trump to do what they want.

    3. DGE

      I read the whole thing and while I highly respect Mr Murray, I think he attributes to much cunning and agency to Trump himself.

      I think the strategic planning may have been along the lines he describes, but Trump’s role in this is basically signing off on the plan because he’s the president, and there’s a whole cabal around him to push his buttons to get that to happen. He didn’t make it, and probably doesn’t understand the details, but he must’ve been effectively convinced it was a good idea: it catered to his hatred of Iran, it boosted Israel’s position, it seemed feasible, and he had the key role to play of keeping deception and running around like a buffoon for a while, only to have the last laugh when USrael achieved all their goals. I’m sure he’ll have adored to be the protagonist of such deception.

      And frankly, I think it’s a scenario that deserves scrutiny. Murray is right that Iran’s gains may be time-limited; that in the long run its ability to inflict damage will be degraded and Israel will return to normalcy stronger as it gobbles up South Lebanon and maybe South Syria; that in a couple years Israel will be the undisputed hegemon of the Middle East, the last bastion of resistance to it reduced to a rubble; and that Russia and China will be on the back foot.

      In the sense that these outcomes were possible at the planning stage means the strategy wasn’t just a harebrained scheme. It wasn’t stupid.

      I did mention it this morning to my mother and she answered, “if the missile production speed-up was announced in a tweet, surely the Iranians also knew and would have factored it into their own war planning”. I think that captures the nature of modern war: tactics may be kept under wraps effectively, but not strategy. A side can’t forecast where the other will hit next, but it’s nearly impossible to keep the whole scheme hidden. This is not 1941, when the Soviet Union was sending commodity shipments to the Reich till hours before Barbarossa (and it can be argued that Richard Sorge did tell Stalin when the invasion would start, only to be disbelieved).

      So both sides were gaming the scenarios and positioning themselves, and Moon of Alabama’s Bernhard has just released his daily brief commenting on Murray’s piece and pointing out that it’s a plausible, even probable, scenario, but also that from the narrow range of preparation options, Iran seems to have concluded, correctly in his opinion (and I agree), that the only one that might work would be to cause economic chaos enough, combined with a systematic degradation of USraeli assets, that its enemies would be forced to retreat, and especially Israel would be too degraded to be able to prevent Iranian reconstruction since they’d be too busy with their own. (I’m expanding on Bernhard’s argument with thoughts of my own, he only discussed the economic part.)

      So Mr Murray may be too pessimistic about the outcome, even though his general idea has some evidentiary supporty. After all, what’s that quip from WW1: something about the best plans dying after the first shot is fired?

      I guess the lesson from this is that any military conflict is not just a test of who planned best, but also of who is more adaptable to circumstances and resilient in the long run. We may like to think resilience and adaptability favour the Iranians, but Israel knows how to take damage, its Jewish population is immensely supportive of the course, and they have lots of allies in the North Atlantic elites. I won’t be convinced of an Iranian victory until I see Nutteryahu announcing a unilateral cessation of hostilities with a broken voice on live TV.

      And there are always the black swan events: a successful hit on Dimona that breaks the contention of the reactor, the entry of Egypt into the fray while Hizbollah holds its ground in the North, civil unrest in the US from economic distress etc.

      All in all, I think Iran has been doing everything it can and doing it effectively, and it has planned and prepared as much as it could given its limitations and the strength of its enemies, short of procuring nuclear weapons in advance (some even argue they might have). The question is whether it will be enough, and whether USrael will show themselves to have prepared insufficiently and failed to adapt to the flow of events. In a sense, the outcome, as per Mr Murray, will hinge at least to some extent on the making of mistakes by the USraeli side.

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Agree that Murray is a little too pessimistic here. Iran has allies, and strategically, those allies need Iran intact and not occupied by their enemies. If Russia can send assistance to Cuba, which is apparently happening, then surely then can send aid to a much closer Iran as well. And China shares a border with Russia. If only there were some lengthy trade route crossing the continent that could tie all these nations together in trade… Of course, that initiative is exactly what the US is trying to stop with the wars it has fomented in recent years in a futile effort to preserve its hegemony. Can’t have nations cooperating and peace breaking out – that would be extremely bad for US business.

      2. TiPs

        Thanks for that response. My own view is that Trump’s nationalistic yes-men are not the brains behind The Brain, rather it’s Israeli interests. I don’t mean the insipid Kushner either. The war gaming was most likely influenced by Israel’s war planners, as we know folks like Gabbard (and Kent) were outside the planning tent.
        Similarly, I am always skeptical of taking a view that one side is “winning”, especially in the early stages of a conflict. I am sure both sides have surprises to come. However, it could just as easily turn out that the Trump Team is as incompetent as they publicly appear. Interesting times…

      3. Butch

        DGE writes “We may like to think resilience and adaptability favour the Iranians, but Israel knows how to take damage, its Jewish population is immensely supportive of the course” Withstanding damage and population support are also characteristic of Iran. And Iran, China and Russia all have industrial military production abilities that far outstrip the US and Israel.

        1. DGE

          I don’t dispute that. I’m just saying that we shouldn’t dismiss the other side’s ability to endure a beating in the hope of delivering a bigger one. If polls in Israel are to be believed, they seem determined, as much as the Iranians. Of course, it could be propaganda, who knows.

          I agree that industrial power favours Iran if it can count on the full support of Russia and China.

          It sucks that the fog of war makes it impossible to know how much damage Israel has taken so far. I’m sure the information exists somewhere, but nobody has compiled it. What’s happened to its high-tech research parks? To Rafael? To the Haifa petrochemical facilities? To the Negev Nuclear Research Centre? To the Weizmann Institute and the Technion? I still think that getting the double-passport professional elite to leave is the best way to turn Israel into a degraded backwater everyone avoids and ready to be discarded by its North Atlantic sponsors.

          It’s a pity that raspberry jam seems to have disliked having his position on the Artificial Bibi brouhaha sharply rebuffed and chose to disengage. I really liked his well-grounded views and first-hand knowledge of the situation in Israel. I wish he’d come back.

          1. amfortas

            missed whatever rasberry jam kerfuffel you are referring to(and i thought it was a chick).

            the issue, for me right now, is exactly as you described:how much damage to israel, as of today?
            vids and pics are leaking out…but with ai, etc…i have no idea whats really happening.(perhaps this is the real purpose of ai…to induce an ontological crisis?)
            ive seen vids of even jerusalem getting hit, right there by the weeping wall.
            AND HAIFA LOOKS LIKE A HELLSCAPE>>>TEL AVIV LOOKS MUCH LIKE GAZA(WHICH WOULD BE JUSTICE< IMO)
            sorry for the all capps<loL….DROPPED THIS NEW WIRELESS KEYBOARD AS SOON AS I BROUGHT IT HOME. ON CONCRETE, NO LESS.. dammit(hafta hit the thing from beneath the left shift button to undo it)

            1. ThirtyOne

              Israeli media: A hypersonic missile with half a ton of explosives hit Arad.
              pics and video from the scene look really bad.

              1. johnnyme

                8+ settlers killed, dozens injured following Iranian strike on Arad

                An Iranian missile struck the city of Arad in the southern occupied Palestinian territories on Saturday evening, killing at least 8 settlers and injuring around 100 others in what Israeli media has described as the deadliest single strike since the beginning of the war.

                The missile, identified by some Israeli media platforms as a Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile carrying a half-ton warhead, scored a direct hit on a residential area of Arad, with Israeli outlets saying the strike was “a failure of the air defense system.”

                While the preliminary official toll stands at 8 killed and around 100 injured, at least one Israeli media platform has reported at least 20 killed and more than 200 injured.

    4. What? No!

      Yes, but.

      All of this can still be explained simply by Trump thinking “we should kick Iran in the head, we should take Iran’s oil, we should help Israel with that Greater Israel thing. Any problems, we’ll just deal.”

      It doesn’t require deeper thought than this, even if there is deeper thought. I’m also wondering about the conventional wisdom that the US cannot lose face. At some point, somebody in the Administration is going to ask “what if we lose face? what’s the worst that could happen?”

      I think this is why it’s so maddening — it seems like anyone can think anything these days.

      1. juno mas

        Well, with the US plying “the rules-based order”, and with China and Russia now in a position to implement a multi-polar world order, losing “face” will now be the end of the “exorbitant priveledge” economically. And the US standard of living.

    5. AG

      Please forgive me, but what is so new about Murray´s post?
      It´s also being picked up by Moon of Alabama.
      But I thought we knew all this.
      We knew the war would come.
      We knew what it would look like.
      We knew that Iran would retaliate with missiles and that a success of the attack was very unlikely, something Murray still doesn´t want to see because he despises military matters, which is alright but diminshes the scope of analysis substantially.
      Or that the MIC has a say in this.
      And of course we knew it´s goddam dangerous.

      1. Keith Newman

        @AG at 3:35 pm
        I agree. Nothing new there.
        And I’d add that a variety of US non-propaganda military men (Wilkerson, etc) and others, believe the US is being expelled from the Middle East. That’s not a US victory.

  28. Pearl Rangefinder

    Iran says it will allow Japanese ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz

    Japan sources more than 90 percent of its crude oil imports from the Middle East and is heavily dependent on exports transiting the key waterway.

    Iran and Japan have actually had fairly good relations up until now, and would undoubtedly be a hell of a lot better had Japan actually been fully independent of Uncle Sucker. Shinzo Abe even made a state visit to Iran in 2019: (Asia Times, June 18, 2019) Abe’s visit to Iran has everyone talking

    On June 12, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Iran, where he met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It was the first time a Japanese prime minister had visited in Iran in 40 years.

    Japan has always been careful in maintaining its economic relations with Iran. However, in the geopolitical spectrum, the current regimes of both countries have been detached. The only time leaders of the two countries met was in 2000 when Iranian president Mohammad Khatami visited Japan. Given that Japan imports a considerable amount of energy from the Persian Gulf region, it is rare to see such a low number of mutual visits. With US President Donald Trump’s continued berating of Iran, Abe’s sudden visit to Iran has gotten the world talking.

    (Tehran Times, June 12, 2019) Abe’s high-profile visit to Tehran

    The Japanese prime minister is scheduled to meet with Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday morning.

    The visit has been called historic.

    Though no official statements have been made that during his talks with the Iranian leaders the Japanese prime minister will seek to act as a mediator to deescalate tension between Iran and the United States, it was highly expected that Abe use his country’s good ties with Tehran and Washington to ease the tension between Iran and the United States.

    Japan was one of the eight countries that imported oil from Iran before the Trump administration ended sanctions waivers for Iran’s oil exports in April.

    Amid escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington, the U.S. has sent military reinforcements, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, a squadron of B-52 bombers, and a battery of patriot missiles, to the Middle East, citing alleged unspecified “threats” from Iran.

    Before his departure to Tehran, Abe said he wanted to have candid talks with the Iranian leadership to secure stability in the Middle East, in a high-stakes attempt to act as a mediator between Iran and the United States.

    “There are concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East. While the situation attracts the attention of the international community, for peace and stability in the region, Japan wants to play a role as much as it can,” Kyodo News quoted him as telling reporters at Tokyo’s Haneda airport.

    “To ease tensions, I’d like to have a frank exchange of views,” said Abe.

    Talking to Zarif before Abe’s arrival to Tehran, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono said, “We believe that in this important region a lesser tension will benefit all, otherwise we all lose.”

    He added, “Japan is ready to do whatever that leads to reducing tension.”

    1. Pearl Rangefinder

      Also adding, I just learned that Abbas Araghchi actually served as the Iranian ambassador to Japan between 2008-2011, so the Japanese might have a literal leg-up everyone else on negotiations, LOL.

    2. hk

      Most East Asian countries have had pretty good or better relations with Iran, historically. One country that went through really weird phases is South Korea: until 2017 or so, they had really friendly relations with Iran (the only country, afaik, that had a friendly relationship with the Shah’s regime and maintained friendship with the Islamic Republic without missing a beat) and was very adept in finding ways to maintain trade while sidesteping US sanctions. After Park was ousted (in what many, myself included, believe to be a soft color revolution), things began to change (this also applies to SK-Rus relationship at the same time). The current SK regime seems to want to negotiate, but I wonder how far they’ll get.

    3. Lee

      I don’t know where you are but here on the left coast in the land of the free I cannot connect with the Tehran Times.

      1. Pearl Rangefinder

        I was going to suggest maybe changing your DNS server from whatever default it’s set to, but their site seems to be down on my end at the moment now as well (@10pm EST). It was working earlier today when I made the post.

    4. Glen

      I have to admit, after watching Vicky “Cookies” Nuland bring together Russia and China, that now watching how America has brought that brain trust of diplomacy, Trump, to work similar miracles, I can see American relations with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan changing. And not in America’s favor.

      Countries like China, Japan, and Korea have been around a thousand years, and intend to be around another thousand, and even as historical enemies, can make some amount of common cause.

      What we witnessed earlier this week in the White House was a masterclass in how to wreck foreign relations. I was most impressed.

  29. Ben Panga

    Reading some local history tonight.

    The First U.S. Combat Troops Arrive in South Vietnam… (CFR)

    The intro:

    On March 8, 1965, 3,500 Marines of the 9th Marine Expeditionary Brigade arrived in Da Nang to protect the U.S. airbase there from Viet Cong attacks.

    I wonder what happens next. I’m guessing the tough Americans clean out the primitive Vietnamese pretty fast, right?

    1. Vicky Cookies

      I was also reading some history, from Robert Fisk’s The Great War for Civilization, which includes good context and detail on the tanker war aspect of the Iran-Iraq war, the Gulf tyrannies’ positioning, the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island. Nothing new under the sun. Recommended to all.

      Interestingly, in his chapter on the hostage crisis and the ’79 revolution, he notes that when the U.S. embassy was abandoned, all the top secret files were shredded and tossed. Iranian volunteers then spent months and years sorting through the shreds and piece-ing them together, like traditional carpet-weavers (the title of the chapter), until they’d reassembled all the shredded files, which they then published. Among other revelations, the files included information on the entire CIA roster in China, who were then rolled up. A patience we lack.

    2. KLG

      If you find A Rumor of War (1977) by Philip Caputo in the used book store, it is very good. I read it when it was published. I did not see the television movie. Lt. Caputo was among those US Marines who landed at Da Nang.

  30. Tom Stone

    The USA is decisively losing the PR War and that needs to be turned around.
    What’s needed is a rallying cry, a War Cry that our marines can shout as they charge into massed artillery and machine gun fire, a War cry that emphasizes the savage depravity of the foe and emphasizes that this is a crusade of the forces of light against the dark savagery of islamic commies!!

    “Remember Mindab!” will do the job .
    DC is full of people whose truthiness is beyond compare and Larry Ellison and friends control the media, all it would take is a concerted effort by America’s Free and Fearless Press.
    The donors would love it!
    What could go wrong?

    And it beats the heck out of “Well, ah, Bibi has pics” which is where we are now.

    3. Trees&Trunks

      How about „Trumpstein!“?
      The marines should know who their boss is.
      It works rythmically for marching.
      You can scream it easily. A long vowel „stein“ when you attack.

  31. lyman alpha blob

    All this brings to mind a very odd book I read a while ago from Iranian author Reza Negarestani – Cyclonopedia: Complicity with Anonymous Materials

    From the blurb –

    “CYCLONOPEDIA is a middle-eastern Odyssey, populated by archeologists, jihadis, oil smugglers, Delta Force officers, heresiarchs, corpses of ancient gods and other puppets. The journey to the Underworld begins with petroleum basins and the rotting Sun, continuing along the tentacled pipelines of oil, and at last unfolding in the desert, where monotheism meets the Earth’s tarry dreams of insurrection against the Sun. ‘The Middle East is a sentient entity – it is alive ‘ concludes renegade Iranian archeologist Dr. Hamid Parsani, before disappearing under mysterious circumstances. The disordered notes he leaves behind testify to an increasingly deranged preoccupation with oil as the ‘lubricant’ of historical and political narratives.”

    Don’t let that fool you into thinking there is much in the way of a plot, because there is not. Fans of geopolitics, geology, Lovecraft and Borges might enjoy it. I’m with this reviewer and not exactly sure what it all means, but there’s a lot in it that rhymes with current events, if you can get past the extremely heavy arcanity of it all.

    1. mrsyk

      Yes, and check the language in this official statement from the IRGC, emphasis mine,

      “The third hostile enemy fighter belonging to the Zionist regime, an F16 type, was hit at 3:45 AM in central Iran by the new air defense systems of theIRGC Aerospace Force.

      Adding some fuel to that rumor of a Russian arms delivery

      1. hk

        Israelis must be getting pretty deseparate sending non-stealthy types (with limited range no less!) deep into Iran. I wonder where it was refueled, though, since Central Iraq seems to be increasingly contested as an airspace.

      3. ISL

        Consistent with Iran absorbing punishment from Israel while keeping their AD off until the US ran out of standoff munitions. With the US retreating further and further, the logistics get more and more complicated and (my assessment) unsustainable.

        1. amfortas

          and yet, one turns on fox(where my cousin inexplicably still gets his news of the world from) or even cnn…and iran is defeated, without missiles, ad destroyed, and so on.
          based on my rummging, the usa has no more bases in the middle east, and is doing theior thing from extremely standoff posistions, from carriers.
          and diego garcie just got shot at…a test? a message?,lol
          to say nothing of the likely global depression already baked in to the works…not a word about that…such that cousin and i argued(both in cups) last night: he thinks because we burn off natgas allthe time, we got plenty…and we export light sweet, we’ll be fine…wont effect us, etc.
          but he also still thinks that money is real, instead of a proxy marker for power…which can come in many forms.

    1. dog lady

      I’m pretty ignorant about all this stuff, but becoming rapidly less so , thanks to NC and the fine family of commenters. I found this article very helpful and pitched just right to give my understanding of what is going on a big boost. Thank you, neutrino.

      1. redleg

        That won’t stop them from trying.

        The list of bad ideas that this administration is doing anyway is long and comprehensive. I’ll bet a draft is floated (using AI, somehow) as soon as the ground ops start.

        1. Pearl Rangefinder

          They don’t have the logistics or institutional memory to even start something like that quickly enough though, not unless Trump and Yahoo plan on winning this war in the next few months. If they were to initiate a draft now, as in starting today, the first combat capable units wouldn’t be ready for at least a year, best case. Even in WW2, with the benefit of an actually competent and not utterly corrupt government, it took a year to fully stand up an infantry divisions: U.S. Divisions of World War II

          Upon the activation of a division, the key commanders and staff plus the cadre were joined by fillers and new officers mostly from Officer Candidate School (OCS). The division thus began a training cycle that was to last almost a year before it was deemed deployable. There were three distinct phases—individual training, unit training, and combined arms training. Appropriate testing by the Army Ground Forces (AGF) headquarters was conducted at all phases to ensure the division was up to standard. This continued well into mid-1944 when divisions committed in Europe began to take casualties. Then divisions in training in the United States were raided for their infantrymen who had completed individual training to serve as replacements overseas. Fillers had to start the cycle over again. Many of them came from disbanded antiaircraft battalions in the United States and from discontinued programs.

          The quickest way to actually get units would be to start activating National Guard and reserve units and getting them ready for deployment.

          1. juno mas

            NG and Reserve units are older units with families. The last draft (Vietnam) selected mostly 18-19 year olds fresh from high school (few family men). If most citizens oppose the Iran war, a call-up of these NG folks is likely to increase the howl!

      2. Darthbobber

        Maybe we could just press gang people off the streets. I hear that’s easier and tres democratic and free

      3. Joe Well

        Imagine all the “laundry fires” in every branch in the military, not to mention recruitment offices.

    1. ISL

      Apologies but I have an allergy to MSM and IOF statements.

      But from your summary – this suggests Israel was holding back. When has Israel ever held back?

  36. Ann

    Cuba refuses to negotiate president’s term in talks with US

    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260321/cuba-refuses-to-negotiate-presidents-term-in-talks-with-us

    Three weeks in, Iran war escalates beyond Trump’s control

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/three-weeks-iran-war-escalates-beyond-trumps-control-2026-03-21/

    Norway and UK plan joint acquisition of up to 30 new Joint Commando Craft

    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/03/norway-and-uk-plan-joint-acquisition-of-up-to-30-new-joint-commando-craft/

    1. ISL

      “load, assemble, and package 30mm cannon rounds” not address the shortage of gun cotton (Stanislav had a detailed discussion that there is a massive shortage of gun cotton).

      I guess profits are too low for the MICC if they pay an American to load, assemble, and package at a decent wage, so they need to pay people a pittance (no gun cotton, nothing to load). Just like without rare earths, there are no drones (More BS – China makes 97% of every drone on the planet – they have the rare earth magnets).

      And in exchange for this vaporware hype to goose some IPO with a general on the board to hoodwink the US public that the MICC is doing something (it isn’t, other than laughing to the bank), the Philippines will forego oil. Na Gonna Happen.

      1. The Rev Kev

        ‘that there is a massive shortage of gun cotton’

        Something else that China has plenty of that the US needs – so that later on they can attack China.

  39. mrsyk

    This is alarming. From ABC 13 in Houston, ‘Multiple waves’ of unauthorized drones recently spotted over US Air Force base.

    “Between March 9-15, 2026, BAFB Security Forces observed multiple waves of 12-15 drones operating over sensitive areas of the installation, including the flight line, with aircraft displaying non-commercial signal characteristics, long-range control links and resistance to jamming,” the document said. “After reaching multiple points across the installation, the drones dispersed across sensitive locations on the base.”

    Barksdale houses long-range B-52 bombers and plays a critical role in command and control of the Air Force nuclear defense capabilities.

    2. ThirtyOne

      Interesting to me is the lack of photos/videos of these mystery drones. Reminds me of Don Joyce’s observation that UFOs main purpose is being seen.

      Maybe these will become popular in the drone era:
      https://t.me/zoka200/48873#

      1. mrsyk

        Yes, skepticism required here. Difficult to discern truth from narrative here, both arguments seem defendable.

  40. Jason Boxman

    Trump must be thinking he’s the Riders of Rohan, changing in to save middle earth after a multi-day continuous hard ride. Seems like a recipe for disaster. His success in Venezuela really perverted his thinking.

    1. skippy

      “Another interceptor fail — with dramatic consequences”

      Besides most of the Sams being engineered for dumb missiles compared to what Iran can launch e.g. decoys, hypersonic, it also has ones that cork screw in whilst throwing off flaming bits of metal which confuses radar/probability algos, its just the speed of closure which the sam can’t adjust for …. even when close and explodes the fragments are too late. The missile just blows past it.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Since Trump says that the US does not use Hormuz, that should be no skin off his nose. Unless he starts on about freedom of navigation.

  43. JohnH

    Al Mayadeen reporting “Specialized teams responding to 20 sites in Dimona after Iranian missiles made impact, with at least 20 injuires reported…israeli media: A three-story building in Dimona was hit, and there are suspected people trapped inside.”
    https://english.almayadeen.net/shortnews

    Unstated is what was struck. Israeli media dismisses attack as debris and shrapnel.

    What’s interesting is that Israel actually acknowledged the strike. Message received?

  44. Matthew

    While we were expending–wasting–incredible energy and treasure on fantasies of ´full spectrum dominance,’ Iran was figuring out how to survive a war against us. It’s showing.

  45. ISL

    Excellent discussion with Stanislav and Rick Sanchez and a ginormous map of west asia on the ground invasion options, including how drones have changed everything and assembly areas will be missiled/droned relentlessly.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIKGlDg_FLE

    The US needs 6 months to process the first draftees, and with a 3:1 tooth-to-tail ratio (higher given US maintenance requirements, but let’s be traditional). The US could maybe (skeleton crew elsewhere) field 75-100k fighting (with insufficient armor to cross hundreds of miles of mountains) in 3-4 months. Standard 3:1 rule is 25k could hold them off – with drones, probably 10k. Stas showed photos from the Navy 5th Fleet HQ; it’s being rubbel-ized – as will the staging area.

    For reference, that is 2-3 months of Ukrainian casualties (and Ukrainian soldiers are hardened and tenacious – not flushing laundry at sea). So it’s Vietnam redux, slowly increasing sunk costs (dead), while Russia cannot believe the US is handing it a payback opportunity – with Russia outproducing the West by multiples and with its own rare earth supply chains. Drones need rare earths.

    Stanislav (sadly – his words) thinks there is not enough sense in DC not to walk up the escalation ladder (and Netanyahoo, puppeteer of US politics, wants US soldiers to die in Iran for Israel – regime change impossible without an invasion).

    1. Aurelien

      My understanding is that the US Army recruits about 60,000 personnel every year, so by your figures it would be roughly doubling the training load. Does it have the infrastructure for that? Does it have the spare trainers? The accommodation and training areas? Does it have officers to command the newly-raised or expanded units? Et cetera.

      1. AG

        btw this was Dexter Filkins reporting about recruiting crisis one year ago for the NEW YORKER (the topic was suggested to him by Laurence Wilkerson, Wilkerson then stated.)

        THE NEW YORKER

        A Reporter at Large

        The U.S. Military’s Recruiting Crisis
        The ranks of the American armed forces are depleted. Is the problem the military or the country?
        By Dexter Filkins

        February 3, 2025
        https://archive.is/qa0Zz

      2. ISL

        The six months was just to identify the names of recruits! Per Stanislav, the system is a mess. As far as training… sighhh.

        It all sounds like planning – and Trump seems to prefer not to plan (worked for him for his many bankrupt businesses) but just “wings it,” dumping the pieces on someone else when it crashes and burns. He does seem to have brought his business model to the White House.

    2. nyleta

      Can’t wait to see how the missiles with the bomblet warheads go once they are used on deployed armoured troops. There seem to be two types, ones has a couple of hundred bomblets about the size of a mortar round and the other has tens of bomblets about the size of a 155mm artillery shell. I haven’t heard of them being used on Israeli troops in Lebanon yet.

      Scuttlebutt is they got the Dimona nuclear scientists in their bunker today in reprise for their own nuclear scientists, they seem to have good on the ground Intel, this is not something you can get from a satellite. Gov. Here in Australia still in full denial about the future, expecting action re fuel rationing to be delayed until after Easter Holidays, they are a big deal here.

      If they can’t get money for the DHS how are they going to get it for the war ?

    1. JohnH

      Now the real question is whether the MSM will muster up the courage to use the phrase “israeli nuclear weapons facility.” So far they do not dare utter the word nuclear weapons.

      But maybe “nuclear facility” is enough to trigger alarm about Israel’s previously covert nuclear program.

    1. Bazarov

      “Ending aggression” and “guarantees” against future aggression (not going to happen considering the agreement-incapable Israelicans) is quite a climb down from reparations, complete withdraw of American forces from the Gulf, and public recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium.

      Unless the Indians are misrepresenting their discussion with Pezeshkian, this is either a sign that the Iranians are dropping their hardline conditions or that Pezeshkian represents the moderates in Iran who’re trying to drum up international support for their position. Given Pezeshkian’s recent bungled “apology,” it sounds like he has some leeway to act on his own/on behalf of the less hardline faction (I say so because I doubt the hardliners would’ve let Pezeshkian “apologize” publicly in that way if they’d been able to vet his communications before he publicized them).

      I think the latter view is more likely. However, I seriously doubt Pezeshkian’s faction is in the ascendant. Probably the hardliners let him do his thing to keep all their options open/to soothe some of the more skittish BRICS member states.

  49. Jason Boxman

    Oh boy

    Inside Trump’s most difficult war decision yet: whether to put boots on the ground in Iran (CNN)

    In near-daily briefings with top military officials at the White House, President Donald Trump has reviewed options that include sending American troops into Iran.

    The decision whether to go ahead is perhaps his most difficult of the war since US strikes began February 28.

    For many Trump allies in Washington, the deployment of thousands of US troops to the Middle East would mean the swift end of their public support for the war— and likely threaten the administration’s ability to deliver the hundreds of billions of dollars in supplemental funding the White House will soon seek.

    But for Trump, fully realizing his objectives and mitigating the war’s fallout could require sending in American troops, a legacy-defining endeavor the president — while not ruling it out — tried to downplay this week.

    Graham is a ghoul

    And [Trump] lashed out this week at NATO allies he deemed insufficiently enthusiastic about joining an effort to patrol the Strait of Hormuz, declaring after a short-lived attempt at coalition building that he didn’t actually need anyone’s help.

    “I have never heard him so angry in my life,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, a top proponent of the war in Iran, wrote on social media.

    Republicans want to cut and run lol

    While Trump continues to weigh potential options that would include sending US troops into Iran, he has also been speaking regularly to Republican allies who have encouraged him to take a different approach: declare victory and move on, according to one source familiar with those conversations.

    hope springs eternal

    White House officials believe taking Kharg Island would “totally bankrupt” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one official said, and could potentially lead to a swift end of the war. But many inside the administration are wary of such a move, particularly given it would require a significant number of ground troops to achieve.

  50. John Steinbach

    Just came back from fishing. Buddy Chris is retired special forces Vet on full disability who works for State Department. According to him, they are working “frantically” around the clock to evacuate diplomats, dependents & civilians from the Gulf. This may jive with Col. Davis’ position that ground forces are imminent.

  51. AG

    Not a fan of combat footage in either of these wars but this is the 5 second clip of an impact on Dimona…via Martyanov:
    https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2026/03/this-is-dimona.html

    Actually it corresponds with this video footage of an impact by an IDF missile fired at RT reporter Steve Sweeney (who survived).
    Today seems to be my war-footage-Saturn-day.

    via USEFUL IDIOTS – highly recommended interview btw beginning at TC 7:00

    footage TC: 17:00
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0qfqm8wQrM

  53. Anthony martin

    Something will give when the zombied out US public is unable to fill their magnum pickup trucks with gas because their card card is maxed out. Then all this will start to be grasped.

  54. John k

    I wonder what Iran is thinking about Saudi pipes bypassing Hormuz.
    Also the oil line crossing turkey to Israel… bombing that might be supported by turkey pop.
    And does Iran mean stopping bombing Beirut/gaza as well as stop bombing Iran?

    1. ocypode

      Saudis have just expelled Iranian diplomats. Looks like we’ll find out how much Iran was holding back. I wonder if Ansarallah will take the opportunity and finish the civil war; depending on how things unfold and how badly the Saudis get beaten, the Yemenis might finally get the land bridge to Palestine they wanted.

      1. vidimi

        I think the Ansarallah are standing by in precisely the case that Saudis try to get cute. I wouldn’t even rule out a ground invasion.

  56. Ann

    IDF strikes Iranian nuclear weapons research, development facility in Tehran
    The facility, which was located inside Tehran’s Malek-Ashtar University, was used to develop ballistic missiles in addition to nuclear weapons, the IDF stated.

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-890710

    Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan meet as Ankara pushes for a security pact
    Turkish foreign minister says the four countries are exploring how to combine their strengths amid growing regional tensions and the war on Iran

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-saudi-arabia-egypt-and-pakistan-meet-ankara-pushes-security-pact

  58. Howard L

    Latest from Axios or is that Trump/IDF. Peace treaty on the table. Negotiations led by Kushner & Witkoff. I feel like Iran might set a meeting with Kushner/Witkoff and then send a ballistic middle for some payback with the message, no thanks. From the article.

    No missile program for five years.
    Zero uranium enrichment.
    Decommissioning of the reactors at the Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities that the U.S. and Israel bombed last year.
    Strict outside observation protocols around the creation and use of centrifuges and related machinery that could advance a nuclear weapons program.
    Arms control treaties with regional countries that include a missile cap no higher than 1,000.
    No financing for proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen or Hamas in Gaza.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Be careful with Axios. They’re known to push narratives approved by the DC stooges.

      Speaking of stooges, sending those two clowns (Kushner & Witkoff) sounds like the best way to ensure talks fail. Aren’t they the same cretins who have been pushing the same tired old plan for Ukraine that doesn’t acknowledge the reality on the ground?

    2. The Rev Kev

      I’m surprised that they did not also demand that Iran pay war reparations for the damage that they caused.

  59. John k

    The house of saud link is interesting discussion of refining issues.
    But it seems to me if Iran can hit israel targets it could hit Yanbu, to say nothing of the pipeline at either end. Imo Iran is allowing oil to flow through that lint, for now.

  60. mrsyk

    In real time, “The IRGC just issued an emergency evacuation order for the heart of Doha.”
    For the West Bay/Diplomatic Area
    “Specifically pinpointing the Al Jazeera Media Network headquarters.”

    Posted on T Keith a couple minutes ago.

    1. alrhundi

      Iran’s IRIB apologises for sharing false evacuation threat for Doha
      Iran’s IRIB news agency has published a clarification on its Telegram page, apologising for sharing an alleged evacuation threat for Qatar’s capital Doha.

      “This news is denied,” it said, adding that it had removed the initial post.

      Al Jazeera (21:43 GMT)

    2. johnnyme

      Iran did not issue evacuation warning for Doha, Qatari media: IRGC source tells state media

      Iran’s Tasnim news agency has also now quoted an IRGC source as saying that Iran, contrary to “false rumours” circulating online, did not issue any evacuation warning for Qatar’s capital, Doha, and Qatari media.

      As we reported earlier, Iran’s IRIB news agency published a clarification on its Telegram page, apologising for sharing an alleged evacuation threat for Qatar’s capital and saying this was “denied”.

  61. Sunlight Disinfects

    Prospects for Nukes

    Troops on the ground? To most Americans, it is unthinkable. Yet Trump has already done the unthinkable in this war: 1) attacking during peace negotiations (that would’ve brought him a better deal than JCPOA); so as to more assuredly assassinate Iran’s leadership; 2) allowing an attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure; 3) allowing an attack on Iran’s nuclear reactor.

    What comes next? Is a high number of US casualties is what is needed for Trump to justify use of nuclear weapons?

    Why would an “America First” “peacemaker” “populist” pursue the war to unthinkable levels?

    Con man Trump has already proven to be very different than what people what he told us he was (repeatedly).

    We are already getting hints that Trump is mentally challenged. Similar to the hints about Biden. Are these just excuses that allow powerful interests to hang all the horrible things around their neck? Oopsie the President went overboard. He needs a rest …

    Will Trump be removed by Article 25 only AFTER he has nuked Iran?

    1. AndrewJ

      Why does he need to justify nukes? Are there any sane people actually in between him and the button?

      1. Sunlight Disinfects

        They need to justify it after the fact.

        They don’t want people to lose confidence in the government. They want hide that the government is run by scoundrels, holy warriors, and ideologues.

        We now return you to your regularly-scheduled program …

  62. Ann

    Mojtaba Khamenei alive, but IRGC currently running Iran, sources tell ‘Post’

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-890716

    Surprise, embarrassment, unease in Japan after Trump uses Pearl Harbor to defend Iran war

    https://apnews.com/article/tokyo-us-trump-takaichi-japan-pearl-harbor-iran-war-9b3a60e02d384d1e024094e49c1e7f5e

    EU urges members to start storing winter gas as Iran war causes price surge

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/21/eu-urges-members-to-start-storing-winter-gas-as-iran-war-causes-price-surge

    5-year-old in serious condition after direct strike in Arad; dozens wounded, some missing
    An Iranian missile carrying a heavy warhead directly struck the southern city of Arad, causing extensive damage to buildings; helicopters were dispatched to the scene of a mass-casualty incident

    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sy9szfnqbl

    Quaker pacifist seized off Kyiv street

    Quaker and conscientious objector Yurii Sheliazhenko was forcibly detained on the streets of Kyiv yesterday evening and is now being held in military custody.

    https://www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-events/news/quaker-pacifist-seized-off-kyiv-street-and-held-in-illegal-military-detention

    Failed interception in Dimona strike leaves 51 hospitalized, child seriously hurt; Iran: Retaliation for Natanz strike
    Intercept failure precedes Dimona strike that leaves 51 hospitalized, including a child in serious condition, as Iran says attack was retaliation for Natanz and multiple impact sites are reported across the city

    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkous429wx#autoplay

  63. les online

    Dont be distracted by the ‘build-up’ of US forces to conduct a land invasion of Iran.
    You may recall how the Pentagon was leaking like a sieve prior to the US attack on Iraq.
    We learned (from the deliberate “leaks”) thousands of body bags were being shipped ahead, US was booking all spare hospital beds in Italy, Germany, and so on.
    The corporate propaganda media was so convinced the US intended a land invasion it banged on about “Didnt the Pentagon learn The Lessons Of Vietnam ?”, and we were all convinced the invasions would be a bloodbath (Even Saddam’s forces were organised ain readiness for a landinvasion)… The “leaks” proved effective – The US intended and carried out a massive aerial bombardment. None of us saw it coming, convinced as we were by the “leaks” that a mass land invasion was intended…
    The US did not supply Israel with all those Bunker Busters for them to be used on Gaza.

  65. les online

    Trump may be preparing his off-ramp using the US “Retreat With Honour” it employed to
    extricate itself from its War Against Vietnam…
    Recall: the US built-up and armed the South Vietnam forces so they could slug it out with
    the North Vietnamese – after the US retreated from the fray…
    Trump has called on US’s Middle East ‘allies’, the Israeli-friendly Arab states to enter the fray, same as he has called on NATO in the US proxy War Against Russia in the Ukraine, to take on more of the burden…
    There’s reports Trump has asked two billion US dollars worth of weaponry to be sent to the Middle East… This suggests Trump is gonna “retreat With Honour”, and leave it to a re-armed Israel & its Arab ‘friend’ to slog it out, tocarry on a prolonged War of Attrition against Iran… The Arab states are said to be URGING Trump to Destroy Iran, my guess, he’ll arm them, insist they do it. Give him his off-ramp…
    Trump can then recall US troops, be praised to the high heavens by the Zionist controled US mass media for ‘saving US lives’, and sweep the mid-term elections…

    1. voislav

      Arm whom? Iraqi army is more likely to join Iran, Jordanian army is minimal, UAE/Qataris are mostly mercs with no interest in taking on Iran. Saudis are the only sizeable army and their quality is notoriously so poor that they couldn’t evict Houthis who took part of Saudi territory.

      This is why GCC countries are pushing hard for Israel and US to take care of Iran. Gulf without US presence is one dominated by Iran and it’s a big question if their monarchies survive.

  66. AG

    I just love the CIA
    They are like Hollywood – the world´s most notorious recycling facility.

    Could Al-Qaeda Chief Be Part of an Iran War Deal?
    The Islamic Republic has sheltered FBI’s Most Wanted terrorist Saif al-Adel for decades
    https://www.spytalk.co/p/could-al-qaeda-chief-be-part-of-an

    “If U.S. officials are looking for face-saving off-ramps to end the war with Iran, they might start by making discreet inquiries into the whereabouts of a notorious Al Qaeda terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head.

    Saif al-Adel, once an intimate of Osama bin Laden, has become the “de facto” leader of Al Qaeda and has tasked operatives to “reactivate” terror cells in Europe and across the Middle East, according to a 2025 United Nations monitoring report.

    Moreover, a FBI “most wanted poster” lists him as “Iran-based,” a conclusion based on years of sometimes murky reporting that he has been living under a lax form of “house arrest” with protection courtesy of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

    All this has led to speculation in counter-terror circles that—with a little creative diplomacy—al-Adel’s transfer to U.S. custody could prove to be a tantalizing card in a negotiated deal to resolve the current conflict.”

    1. hk

      Assuming that’s true, they should trade him for al Golani and Netanyahu, both wanted criminals.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Trump also said that CNN came out with a poll showing support for him at 100% and that they have never seen a poll like that. Trump says a lot of things.

    2. RookieEMT

      So apart from being a warcrime… what good would this do?

      Iran is going to mine the crap out of the strait. They might press the Houthi’s to shut down the red sea.

      1. Ben Panga

        More than that, they will attack Gulf and Israeli energy (oil AND power generation) very hard.

    3. Jason Boxman

      Honestly, it only dawned on me today, that this is an epochal world event. The ramifications of a not insubstantial flow of oil ceasing will reverberate across the world economy, with second and third order effects that aren’t so obvious as is inherent in complex systems.

      It seems like a global recession or depression is likely inbound. Just the potential food shortages alone might fell several governments, or at the least cause unrest. That’s just food.

      This is beginning to present the appearance of a COVID-19 level event unfolding. And this isn’t so easily contained as that could have been, and was not, and still is not.

      Without competent leadership, America is likely to fair poorly. We don’t even yet have any calls for energy conservation.

      Hopefully I’m wrong, and everyone is overreacting. Hard to believe though. One thing I’ve learned from reading Naked Capitalism for almost 15 years. It’s like reading next month’s newspaper, today.

      1. hk

        We’ve had Pestilence, now War. With the disruption in trade, especially fertilizers, Famine seems likely to be on the way. To be followed by Death? (Four Horsemen of Apocalypse reference–the White Horseman, the first, is, I think, supposed to be Conquest, but is usually adapted as Pestilence.)

    1. Acacia

      Er, wasn’t it just yesterday that Trump was saying that Israel went too far in hitting Iran’s South Pars gas field?

      I know, I know, we can’t expect any consistent policy or coherent planning from Team Epstein.

      And so much for “seeking an off-ramp”.

      P.S. Brent up to 112 now.

    2. Ben Panga

      After 72 hours without power in Israel – it will be uninhabitable (Haarertz in June 2024)

      Israel is utterly unprepared for a war with Hezbollah and for the toll such a conflict could take on the country’s power infrastructure, the CEO of a company that manages and oversees Israel’s electrical systems on behalf of the government said on Thursday.

      “We are not ready for a real war. We live in a fantasy world, in my eyes,” said Shaul Goldstein, head of Noga – the Israel Independent System Operator. Later, in an interview with Kan Public Broadcaster, he seemed to walk his comments back somewhat: “I said irresponsible things. I shouldn’t have.”

      Speaking at a conference organized by The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in the southern city of Sderot, Goldstein said that Israel will be “uninhabitable” after 72 hours without power. “You look at all of our infrastructure, the optical fibers, the ports – and I won’t go into the sensitive things – we are not in a good place.”

    3. Sibiriak

      Iran’s Armed Forces Unified Combatant has warned that if Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, all energy infrastructures belonging to the US in the region will be targeted, according to Iranian media.

      The Guardian

    4. Ben Panga

      Fars News Agency
      ✔
      🔴 Spokesperson for the Central Headquarters of the Holy Prophet (PBUH): If the enemy attacks fuel and energy infrastructure, all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted.

      (Google Translate from Farsi, Telegram)

  69. ThirtyOne

    Geolocating by OSINT acccounts suggest the Iranian missile hit a bomb shelter in Dimona.

    This likely suggests that Iran had intel that Israeli nuclear scientist possibly were using this bomb shelter, as it is only about 10km away from the Dimona nuclear facility.

    https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/20542#

    1. The Rev Kev

      What if Russian and Chinese satellites were watching Dimona during air raid alerts and were watching closely where the plant’s workers would head to for shelter, especially Dimona’s top workers/scientists. The Iranians would then know which shelter to hit and which missile to use.

  70. Ben Panga

    New Trump escalatory idiocy just dropped. Very not good :(

    This will not work. He’s painted himself into a corner and will have to follow through. Iran’s retaliation will be serious.

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump

    If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

    1. Jason Boxman

      LOL and we know it was him, because of the nonsensical capitalization; I guess he took his phone back from who ever sent that earlier tweet.

      1. Samuel Conner

        Given the reported vulnerability of Israel to disruption of its electrical power generation and distribution system, the thought occurs that instead of DJT publicly requesting Israel to not attack Iranian energy production systems, BN may be requesting US not to.

        1. albrt

          I am starting to entertain the possibility that Trump wants Israel to be destroyed.

          Perhaps for eschatological reasons, but that would seem out of character.

    2. ChrisFromGA

      Taco has a full-on mental breakdown, while likely posting from the WH toilet.

      We live in the worst timeline.

      1. Copeland

        Sadly and tragically….he doesn’t seem to be Taco-ing this time.

        He is fully TOFU-ing though! Or maybe TOFUBAR-ing?

        The stupidest timeline for sure.

    4. Jason Boxman

      JUST IN: President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power grid. Iran retaliated & responded by threatening to destroy the Gulf’s water supply. The 48-hour ultimatum just became a mutual hostage crisis where the hostages are not soldiers. They are 90 million Iranians who need electricity and tens of millions of Gulf residents who need desalinated seawater to drink.

      Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi and military officials warned through Tasnim that any US strike on Iranian power plants will trigger immediate attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and desalination facilities. This is not about oil. Kuwait gets 90 percent of its drinking water from desalination. Qatar gets nearly 99 percent. Bahrain 85 percent. Saudi Arabia 70 percent. The UAE 42 percent. The Gulf produces 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water through 400 facilities, with 90 percent of output concentrated in approximately 56 large coastal plants sitting on shorelines within 350 kilometres of Iranian launch positions.

      …

      Shanaka Anslem Perera, Twitter

      It gets deeper.

    5. The Rev Kev

      According to RT-

      ‘Iran’s largest power plant – the gas-powered Damavand plant – is located near Pakdasht, southeast of Tehran. Other major facilities include the Shahid Abbaspour, Karun-3, and Masjed Soleyman hydroelectric dams in the southwestern Khuzestan region, as well as the Kerman thermal power plant in the southeastern Kerman region.’

      https://www.rt.com/news/635769-trump-threat-iran-power-plants/

      The strange thing is that yesterday Trump was saying that the Strait of Hormuz was not important to the US at all. So who got to him? Lindsey Graham? Netanyahu? Bessent?

  73. ChrisRUEcon

    “Whether Sunni or Shia, our enemy is Islam.” – Hegsh** (via X)

    The Sheik-lapdogs of the GCC no doubt have wads of cash their fingers in their ears.

    1. Ben Panga

      Never thought I’d be defending CTE Pete, but that’s not what he says in that video.

      1. ChrisRUEcon

        Well … yes, he didn’t say exactly that … so my bad for quoting the quote tweet verbatim.

        Hooooooooowever … :)

        It’s incoherent, imperialist, islamophobic rhetoric on the part of Hegsh** to suggest that Iran aligns itself with both Shia and Sunni “islamists” (WTF is an islamist?!) and that regardless of sect, these islamists are the enemy.

        Additionally, Pete has priors here (via The Guardian), and his circuitous language vis-a-vis Iran is a poor attempt to cover that up.

        #NotFoolingAnyone

  74. johnnyme

    Airline industry hit by biggest crisis since pandemic

    Passengers on routes far beyond the Gulf are set to face a steep increase in ticket prices in coming months as airlines attempt to shield their profits. Jet fuel, which accounts for a third of airlines’ costs, has doubled since the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran last month and is still rising.

    In a sign of investors’ alarm, the 20 largest publicly listed airlines have lost about $53bn in market capitalisation since the war began, according to FT calculations.

    Investors have also increased their bets on further declines in share prices, with Wizz Air, a low-cost European carrier, now the most shorted company on the FTSE 100, and easyJet also targeted.

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