Links 3/3/2026

People Are Drinking Less Than Ever. What’s Country Music to Do? Rolling Stone (Micael T)

Meet the Researchers Who Can Engineer Your Dreams The Walrus. Micael T: “Let me guess how this will work: they engineer criminal dreams and then they put you i prison for pre-crime.

COVID-19/Pandemics

Climate/Environment

El Niño Is Returning With Another Stark Warning Bloomberg

Wildfires in the Arctic May Be Releasing Far More Carbon Than We Thought SciTech Daily

Massive concentrations of old dissolved organic carbon from Yedoma thaw in lakes in Siberia Nature

Antarctica just saw the fastest glacier collapse ever recorded Science Daily

70% of European soils are degraded: experts warn of a hidden biodiversity crisis Futura

Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Nature

Shrinking North American bird population is getting worse faster. Experts blame agriculture, warming. Independent. Eeerm, how about bird flu?

The Colorado River is nearing collapse. It’s Trump’s problem now Grist

Can giving the ocean antacid really reverse climate change? Boston Globe. We warned virtually from the start of this website of the disastrous consequences to marine life of ocean acidification.

China?

China’s deflation warning sends signals across global markets Azernews

Japan’s rightward shift puts it on a collision course with China South China Morning Post

India

Indian authorities crackdown on protests in Kashmir Middle East Eye

Pakistan-Afghanistan

At least 22 people killed in Pakistan as protesters try to storm US Consulate Associated Press

Afghanistan says 55 civilians killed in border clashes with Pakistan Anadolu Agency

Africa

South Sudan faces turmoil as former officials arrested in wave of detentions Independent

Kidnapping of foreigners soars in Africa’s lawless Sahel region BBC

Study of 40,000 cases links Somalia migration mainly to water scarcity PhysOrg

‘Without water, we will die’: Limpopo rocked by water shortages after floods Citizen

South of the Border

Caribbean countries pledge humanitarian support for Cuba amid rising tensions with US Guardian

Virtual wallet loans in Argentina: credit boom, sky-high rates and record delinquency Buenos Aires Heralg

‘Iron river’: Mexico’s cartel violence fuelled by trafficked firearms from US Guardian

European Disunion

Macron to set out how France’s nuclear arms could protect Europe France24

France’s nuclear ‘renaissance’ faces uncertainty amid uranium crunch RFi

Old Blighty

More than 100,000 Britons register for help in Middle East BBC

Fruit and vegetable shortages have been reported at supermarkets across the UK, including at the likes of Lidl, Asda, and Tesco Herald Scotland

Pharmacies ‘struggling to cope’ with rising costs and drug shortages STV TV

Investor alarm grows over £2.5bn Mayfair lending collapse Eastern Eye

Dirty water, death and decline: the inside story of a privatisation scandal Guardian

Israel v. The Resistance

Netanyahu’s son ‘highly vulnerable target’ while living in Miami as he dodges IDF reserve Express (resilc)

Canadian Prime Minister Defends Israel and the U.S. as they Commit War Crimes CounterPunch (resilc)

Missile Attacks Are Overwhelming the Gulf. Delivery Drivers Are Still on the Roads Wired (resilc)

Iranian Death Toll Rises to 550+, Israel threatens invasion of Lebanon after Hezbollah strikes, 3 U.S. warplanes down in Kuwait DropSite

Ship insurers cancel war risk cover due to Iran conflict Engineering News

Who’s Deciding Where the Bombs Drop in Iran? Maybe Not Even Humans New Republic (resilc)

98% of Iran’s Uranium Was Gone. Netanyahu and Trump Made Sure It Came Back. W. Lawrence

Iran holds mass funeral for girls, staff killed in US-Israel school attack Aljazeera (resilc)

The Man Who Destroyed Iran New York Times. resilc: “‘Mr. Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.’ More like a 6th grade fellow…….”

New Not-So-Cold War

‘Russian shadow fleet’ tanker seized in Belgian-French North Sea raid Sky

Putin may have lost an ally with the death of Khamenei but an oil price shock is good news for the Kremlin Politico

Imperial Collapse Watch

How Deadly is a Dying Animal? Richard Eskow (Randy K)

Trump 2.0

Peace President’ Breaks Record for Attacking the Most Countries DNYUZ (resilc)

Economy

PHARMA FRIED 3 biggest pharmacies to close 880 locations – and the next wave is already underway Sun (resilc)

Mr. Market is Edgy

Ex-Goldman CEO Fears ‘Reckoning’ As Private Credit Chases Main Street Bloomberg

Antitrust

What You Won’t See at the Live Nation–Ticketmaster Trial Maureen Tkacik. Mo is a great reporter and always worth a read.

AI

US military reportedly used Claude in Iran strikes despite Trump’s ban Guardian

AI Debt Is Spiralling Out Of Control Will Lockett

The Bezzle

Prediction markets draw scrutiny over Iran bets: “Insider trading in broad daylight,” senator says CBS (Kevin W)

Trading on Violence Rajiv Sethi

Antidote du jour (via):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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55 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “‘Peace President’ Breaks Record for Attacking the Most Countries”

    You wonder how many MAGA voters Trump has lost because of all these wars. He campaigned on being a Peace President and no new wars but has spent the past 14 months in one attack after another. This is not the Trump that they voted for and maybe a lot of those voters will want to see him ham strung in November before he gets America bogged down in a real mess and I am not talking about Iran.

    1. Jade Bones

      I’m thinking the neocons may have a hard time convincing him to drop trou for a spanking by China after this.

    2. CanCyn

      Too bad losing voters doesn’t matter one bit. As long as the wealthy MICers and the other wealthy types are happy all is well in Trumpland. And any other politician’s world for that matter. Both parties have proven time and time again that voters don’t matter. In one of his stopped clock is right twice a day moments, Trump said the system is rigged. My only hope is that this is becoming obvious to more plebs. Although I am not sure what is to be done?? A very serious and lengthy general strike? Gotta hit people in their comfort zone methinks.

  2. taunger

    Re: CO river collapse – I find it amazing Grist has failed to find the cynicism yet to recognize that El Cheeto just may not care or do anything to resolve the impasse. Perhaps we see THE BEST WATER DEAL, let’s hope if doesn’t lead to bankruptcy like so many others negotiated in the past.

    1. Wukchumni

      The LA Infernos had been extinguished for well over a fortnight, when DT Barnum decided to prove his statement at an LA press conference that he could have ordered the water needed to stop the wildfires!

      Those billions of gallons of water he ordered the US Army Corps of Engineers to release from Lake Kaweah and Lake Success in late January, all from the tributaries of the Sierra Nevada really has no value in the winter as its almost all fruit & nut trees here, many of which go dormant and need little water to keep them going.

      Those same billions of gallons of water in August are of much higher value and usage.

      He dumped their livelihood’s lifeblood to prove the mootest of points, and yet damn near every Ag constituent voted for him here.

      If he did that to his constituents in California, imagine what he’d do in regards to water from the Colorado River going to Golden State denizens that dared not vote for him?

      Kinda running out of winter and all the areas where the tributaries for the Colorado River are, have experienced bleak snowfalls.

      1. Carolinian

        The good article in Links suggests the Trumpies may be about to throw Arizona under the bus. Which is not to say that our cactus version of the 1920s Florida bubble doesn’t somewhat deserve such treatment. But the upper states intransigence based on outdated water law must also be condemned.

        My friend who lives in Phoenix has to contend with ever surging water and power prices even while her house itself is soaring in value. Will the place shrink down to Scottsdale and its golf courses?…an American Dubai in cowboy boots? That may be extreme but the Cadillac Desert may become the province of those who drive Cadillacs and their tony equivalents.

        1. Wukchumni

          My buddy in Tucson calls Phoenix ‘a hot LA’, and not my cup of tea-he who sweats just thinking about it.

          Look at a population comparison of hot and sweaty cities from a century ago and now, with air conditioning.

          We’re ideally a 72 degree people, served hot.

    1. Alan Sutton

      Yesterday or today (?) in one of Yves’ marvellous link it said that Australia also had only 60 days of fuel stockpiled.

      I am seriously looking forward to shortages happening here.

      All those dicks in their RAMs etc will be grounded. Along with everyone else of course but…ho hum..

  3. Bob from Kansas

    Wondering if people can help me make sense of this since I am not so great at economics, but is this just money laundering?

    Pinterest shares pop 8% as activist Elliott Management takes $1 billion stake

    Pinterest net income for the quarter ending December 31, 2025 was $0.277B, a 85% decline year-over-year.
    Pinterest net income for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025 was $0.417B, a 77.61% decline year-over-year.
    Pinterest annual net income for 2025 was $0.417B, a 77.61% decline from 2024.
    Pinterest annual net income for 2024 was $1.862B, a 5329.17% decline from 2023.
    Pinterest annual net income for 2023 was $-0.036B, a 62.92% decline from 2022.

    1. FreeMarketApologist

      Share prices jumped because they were trading substantially below the amount to be paid by Elliott as part of their share buyback program, as implied in the quote “[Elliott will]…purchase $1 billion in convertible senior notes at an initial conversion price of $22.72 per share. That represents a 30% premium to the stock’s closing price on Monday.”

      So, a number of mid- to long- term shareholders who were probably wondering how much of a loss they were facing, have now been given a bailout by Elliott, and were calling their brokers to unload their holdings. Buyers of those shares will probably hold briefly in hopes of short-term price appreciation. Many of the buy-n-hold purchasers over the last 5 years are underwater on their purchase, so this will let a few get out without too much loss.

      It’s not money laundering, it’s just the application of lipstick to a pig.

    1. Jeremy Grimm

      Thanks for the link. I will keep wearing my ‘Darth Vader’ P-100 mask. I wish I knew of an inexpensive voice shifter I could use to sound more like Vader.

      1. Giovanni Barca

        Look when they start selling Halloween crap, sometime around late August. Or find a sci fi kitsch store.

  4. DJG, Reality Czar

    Mo Tkacik on ticket scams and Live Nation and judges who spend too much time thinking about economics and marketing instead of justice (now a feature of law schools). Yes, this essay is a good analysis, and Tkacik has a talent for paying out scads of details — understandably.

    As you read the essay, in your mind replace Live Nation with Amazon or GrubHub or Uber: ” Those consent decrees explicitly barred Live Nation from using its concert monopoly to retaliate against venues that attempted to break the yoke of its ticketing monopoly by signing deals with upstart ticketing services like SeatGeek and StubHub. But starting almost immediately after the merger closed, Live Nation repeatedly flouted the terms of the agreement so brazenly, gleefully cutting off shows to venues that tried to use competing ticketing apps and threatening everyone else into submission, that the Trump administration’s unfailingly monopolophile antitrust chief Makan Delrahim—who currently represents Azoff’s scandal-plagued FireAid foundation and is busily shepherding the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros.—was forced to sue Live Nation in 2019 to modify it.”

    Predatory pricing? Kneecapping competitors? Importuning compliant and brain-dead judges?

    This is how Amazon made a mess of the publishing world. Fortunately, buying Whole Foods does not seem to have had the same effect: Control of the sea-salted kale-chips market matters only to a self-selected few.

    1. Janeway

      Just purchased 2 tickets to the local ampitheater for an August show. The tickets were $200 a piece (5th row from stage) and the the Ticketmaster ‘fees’ were $93, plus $32 taxes. The government doesn’t even take the cut Ticketmaster does!

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Our biggest local concert venue still has a box office staffed by an actual human. They are only open one day for about six hours, but you can still buy a paper ticket with cash with no added fees.

        I will keep buying my tix without the parasitic middleman for as long as they keep it open.

      2. Bugs

        An indie rock band that I saw in Bruges last fall for 18€ (no fees at all) will be in Evanston IL this May for 50$, including around 20$ in ticket fees. And the venue in Belgium had 3 excellent beers on draught.

  5. The Rev Kev

    “Meet the Researchers Who Can Engineer Your Dreams’

    It’s an interesting article and could do a lot of people a lot of good. But then my inner cynic pipes and and says wait until Silicon Valley gets their grubby mitts on such research. Next thing you know they will be selling their customers “Power Dreaming” software and people will wonder too why their dreams feature sponsored adds.

  6. chris

    I dont think this essay from Dr. Hudson was shared yesterday. It seems like he’s already asking the important questions about where we go from here.

    The only answer I have to that question is, some where completely different. I agree with him that attacking Iran marks the end of US unipolar control. I don’t know whether it also marks the beginning of WWIII. It all feels to slippery right now. If the Israelis do decide to nuke their neighbors, it seems like that would shift us into something entirely different rather than initiate a global conflict based on alliances. I think once those bombs start flying we are all going to fight for ourselves.

  7. Wukchumni

    On the first day of conflict, my leaders said to me, it’ll be a pre-meditated victory

    On the second day of conflict, my leaders said to me, we assassinated Khamenei!

    One the third day of conflict, my leaders said to me, pity about all those missiles hitting the UAE

    On the fourth day of conflict, my leaders said to me, you know-this could take four weeks

      1. Wukchumni

        Life of an online war correspondent is not without risks, what if a brickbat came my way?

        1. Carolinian

          Belated kudos for Thermonuclearpylae.

          As for four weeks–when I drove to the library this morning the nearest gas station said 2.69. When I drove home a few minutes later it said 2.79. It’s happening. We may soon have California gas prices without the surfing and earthquakes.

          So even if Trump stays the course against Iran can be win his war against America’s motorists?

          1. Wukchumni

            Belated kudos for Thermonuclearpylae.

            Thanks, I was hoping somebody would notice that.

            The under/over line is four bucks on go-juice here

  8. leaf

    I don’t think Carney had much of a choice when he was drafting his letter in response to the war. The diaspora here is quite sizeable (especially in some parts of the Greater Toronto Area) and are bigly pro regime change so it might have been done for them. They did have quite a few large demonstrations on the day the war broke out. Even without it though, he would probably still support it like the other EU leaders

    1. The Rev Kev

      Unfortunately the PM of Oz – Anthony Albanese – has rolled over completely to Trump on this war. It was really disgusting to listen to him crawling like that like he too was in the Epstein files. And then I came across this today-

      https://declassifiedaus.org/2026/02/25/australia-remains-committed-to-trading-with-israel/

      Would you believe that an Australian military base was hit by an Iranian drone in the UAE? Why the hell do we even have a base there and what is it even for? Don’t know-

      https://thesun.my/news/world-news/australian-military-base-in-uae-hit-by-iranian-drone-strike/

    2. Roland

      The punch line of the whole joke is that Carney has a minority government.

      Meanwhile, the NDP has been intentionally leaderless, for nearly a year. That’s a whole separate joke.

    3. cale

      nonsense. the president of the Iranian Canadian Congress was on CBC to discuss the protests on January 16 of this year, and made a perfectly reasonable statement about the role of sanctions and external aggression.

      If I recall correctly, CBC host David Cochrane later apologized to the audience for letting them hear the truth from the mouth of a prominent member of the Iranian diaspora!

      https://x.com/cbcwatcher/status/2014141273037271452

      “And to suggest that this was instigated by Israel or foreign forces is obviously offensive to the Iranian Canadian community.”

      I would go as far as to say the only diaspora whose feelings mattered here was the Jewish/Israeli community. If the Iranian monarchists, who are indeed fanatics, have any influence in Ottawa, it is because they have globbed onto the Zionist/MAGA cause. Carney is an unapologetic Zionist, who in all likelihood shares the monarchists’ islamophobic and racist view of the Islamic Republic. That is to say, I doubt he felt coerced or pressured at all—and that is what is so dismaying.

  9. pjay

    – ‘The Man Who Destroyed Iran’ – New York Times. resilc: “‘Mr. Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.’ More like a 6th grade fellow…….”

    It seems that Khamenei’s life was dominated by his irrational, paranoid belief that the World’s Greatest Superpower was out to get him and destroy the Revolution to which he had dedicated his life. Imagine how delusional Khamenei would have to be to actually think this way! No wonder there has been no “peace” with Iran!

    Mr Sadjadpour was born and raised in Michigan. But his parents were Iranian. I’m sure his name and this background had nothing to do with his advancement as he made his way through the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, a Fulbright Scholarship, selection as a WEF Young Global Leader, etc., and on into the think-tank network. I’m also sure these achievements, and his sudden appearances in The Atlantic, the New Yorker, Foreign Affairs, etc. over the last few months, were solely due to his expertise on Iran and not his particular views on the subject. Who am I to argue with this authentic “Iranian” voice?

  10. AG

    re: East Germany poverty rising

    BERLINER ZEITUNG
    machine-translation

    Millions of East Germans at risk of poverty: One federal state is experiencing a particularly dramatic decline.
    Exclusive: New data reveals why Chancellor Merz’s current demands regarding working hours are out of touch with reality. And who truly benefits from overtime.

    https://archive.is/V330a

  11. AG

    re: Germany banning social media

    Controversy over plans by CDU re: teenagers

    MULTIPOLAR blog
    machine-translation

    CDU decision on social media ban: Critics warn of “widespread ID checks”
    Implementation planned via the EU’s digital wallet / State Media Authority: “Little evidence” for the effectiveness of social media bans / FDP Vice Chairman Kubicki: Decision aims “at maximum control of all citizens”

    https://archive.is/pYKMP

    1. Trees&Trunks

      But…but…but… we must go to war with Russia to defend our freedom and prosperity coming from deindustrialization!!!!

  12. Wukchumni

    The genocidal joys about an evang tool goy
    Tattooed Sec Def boy
    Trump on his knees getting to you
    ‘Cause he needed
    To find out what the kompromat was for
    Been reading
    But man the time came to explore Epstein revelations

    Epstein news went apewire ’cause he thought
    Like he’d blight it little tease
    But he didn’t mean it
    But you mess with the goods Jeffrey had, honey you gotta pay, yeah

    A good time was guaranteed for one and all
    The tattooed one & Zionists did target practice on little girls
    While others are waiting for their numbers to get called out
    I, I, I, I found out what the wait was about

    It was a good time, yeah, you got pretty good
    At changing stories upstairs bro
    You shot your mouth off and showed me what that hole was for

    Now I see you
    All impressed and half undressed
    You got called out over the tats of this and that
    Tattooed Sec Def boy
    Have got you where on Fox you used to say
    Well ha ha too bad, but you know what some way
    Stop snivellin’, where ya gonna be on judgment day?

    Oh, but the prestige and the glory
    Another disgusting human interest story
    You are that

    Tattooed Love Boys, by the Pretenders

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9_7xdsq-sE

  13. Jason Boxman

    Camp Follower Noem before Congress (NY Times)

    Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem faced withering criticism on Tuesday from Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee about her department’s aggressive immigration enforcement, which has led to the deaths of American citizens. She declined to retract her assertion that two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, Alex Pretti and Renee Good, were domestic terrorists.

    The Trump administration seems to be the most incompetent in American history; that says a lot.

  14. amfortas

    did my frederickburg run this morning, and notices new discreet cameras along the highway, north and south of mason, and north of fredericksburg.
    simple pole with a 1′ square solar panel, and this black squarish camera tucked under it.
    upon returning home, a bit of google indicates that they are ‘flock’ cameras….way the hell out here,lol.
    have no idea who is footing the bill, yet

  15. Wukchumni

    My buddy started his sightseeing tour business here around the turn of the century and he has 5 or 6 drivers in high season and as many vehicles, and his wife does the bookings and the books, so they have a very good baseline of what to expect, and they related that revenues are right at 50% of last year’s numbers for January-February.

    They wondered if the post-Covid vacation craze has fizzled out, or are people sweating their finances?

    1. Alan Sutton

      Not sure if they get many foreign visitors?

      The US isn’t exactly the most welcoming place for international tourists these days.

      Stats for international visitors to the US are way down I think. Already mentioned here on NC.

  16. Not me

    Random factoid. Yesterday a gun dealer showed me the email from homeland security a month ago that he just saw. It informed him that there might be a temporary suspension of constitutional rights and ice may visit and he must show them all inventory including his personal guns and they can impound them. He is afraid and won’t publicize it but please ask your firearm friends if they got that email too. Not using my handle to keep him hidden. How does the gov suspend the constitution by emai?

    1. RookieEMT

      Looked it up. National Enquirer says its just a scam targeting gun stores and owners. The ATF isn’t supporting such actions for now.

  17. Zar

    Trump just announced that risk insurance and escorts will be provided for ships transiting Hormuz:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/crude-oil-prices-today-iran-war.html

    How likely is this to be effective at preventing market panic? My back-of-napkin math says that Iran has a tad more drones than the US has escort ships, and the accessibility of insurance might not matter much if ships are still getting attacked left and right.

    Plus, there’s the fact that this is all predicated on a Truth Social post. I don’t know how long it would take to implement the plan, but I doubt it’ll be immediate.

    1. cfraenkel

      The Strait is less than 40km wide. All the escorts in the world aren’t going to stop artillery shells…. No drones needed.

    2. Glen

      For a guy that ran for President saying that W’s wars were a failure and a mistake, we’re in W Squared territory for the size of the disaster we’re looking at in the Middle East. I’m sure W is relieved to be no longer the biggest [family blog] up President in recent history.

    3. fjallstrom

      And how trustworthy is Trump? He usually stiffs people, do you want to risk your tanker on the mans word?

      Looking at marinetraffic.com, the tankers inside the Gulf and outside the strait are still parked.

    4. Yves Smith Post author

      This is just silly on a military level. Addressing that in our upcoming Iran post.

      And getting the documentation and ops (as specs for coding and the code writing) together for a totally new maritime scheme would take well over a year, even before getting to bill-writing and Congressional approval time. There is no off the shelf software for this.

    5. Victor Sciamarelli

      From a military perspective, I can bomb your tanker in which case you won’t be able to load it with oil. Or I can bomb the port in which case none of the tankers, escorted or not, will be able to load the oil.
      There are hundreds of tankers around Hormuz on a given day but just so many port facilities to accommodate them. I think Iran is capable of doing significant damage to the ports.
      Moreover, hitting full tankers might create an environmental disaster. And a further downside is the damaged ports might be down for a long time waiting repairs. But Iran is fighting an existential war and in Trump speak, bad things will happen.

      1. Oregon Lawhobbit

        Or I bomb your tankers while they are in port loading and get a twofer… ;-)

  18. Acacia

    Re: Macron to set out how France’s nuclear arms could protect Europe

    I wonder if all the Israeli nukes pointed at the EU figure into his math.

    BTW, Macron seems to have aged prematurely, like he’s been doing meth or somesuch.

    1. Hickory

      BTW, Macron seems to have aged prematurely, like he’s been doing meth or somesuch.

      Maybe Macron realized how much kool-aid he’d been drinking (about Russia, America’s reliability, you name it)

  19. Alan Sutton

    I have never heard of Prof Steve Hall before (thanks NC!) but his comment about the eternal war against the financial class was music to my ears.

    All very Hudsonian I think.

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