We were surprised at the market under-reaction to unprovoked US-Israel launch of a war with Iran, particularly since Iran had not only threatened a closure of the Strait of Hormuz but had just held live-fire drills to demonstrate their ability to do so. It appears that bigotry and Western narrative control were able to shore up the idea that this would be a short conflict and that Iran would return to the negotiating table after the US broke its legs, or better yet fall quickly into civil unrest, making regime change or balkanization possible.
It is going to be an interesting race to see which element of the unraveling of the US-Israel fantasy of a quick and easy ouster of the Iranian government choke-chains their prosecution of the conflict first. We reported yesterday that, per Bloomberg, Gulf states were already catastrophically low on air defense missiles, with Qatar having only 4 days’ worth left and the Saudis, a week, with both begging for replenishments. Below, we’ll provide further updates on the continuing Iranian destruction of US bases in the region. Last I checked, Iran was on its 14th wave of missile and drone attacks in Operation True Promise 4 and has just deployed what I believe is its first, not second, generation of Fatah hypersonic missiles. Richard Medhurst has assembled video footage showing that Israel air defenses are cracking.
But in a series of shambolic press briefings, including one in which Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed the US attacked Iran because Israel said it would and outcomes would be better if we went in with them rather than reacted,1 Trump doubled down. After promising a short war, Trump is now invoking a variant of the Western promise to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes” to defeat Russia with, per Bloomberg:
This is an admission that the much promised raid or short war scenario is kaput, and the Trump Administration and Israel are scrambling for a Plan B. But ex Israel going nuclear, the belligerents are already running out of road. It was close to telegraphed before the air strikes began that the US and Israel had only enough firepower to bomb Iran intensely for four to five days, and only for as much as two weeks at a more moderate tempo. The ferocity of the Iranian response suggests that the aggressors are burning through air defense weapons at top speed, although it is not clear quickly the offensive tempo is eating into available weaponry.
But even though most commentary is focusing on the kinetic conflict, financial upheaval could produce even faster and more acute pressure on Trump. The market reaction so far seems similar to the 2007-2008 crisis, where some commentators described the denialism over the accelerating credit market as waiting for the Wile E. Coyote moment, where he remains aloft until he looks down:
Gold has admittedly rallied strongly but that does not have systemic effects. But key elements of the global economy are suffering what could be body blows if the war does not end soon, which now seems vanishingly unlikely.
In a post that went live earlier today, we provided more information on the QatarEnergy LNG shutdown and its implications for global LNG buyers. It included comments from reader Tbuff on the very real risk of a devastating explosion if hit while operating. That suggests that this critical facility will not reopen until hostilities have ceased.
The oil market seems to be sobering up. Iran made clear that it intends to enforce a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Per Channel News Asia: Iran vows to attack any ship trying to pass through Strait of Hormuz
Brent has risen to over $84 a barrel:
The banner headline at Bloomberg at 6:30 AM EST
- China urges “all sides” of the Iran war to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz
- Europe’s natural gas prices jump as much as 33%
- Two drones attack US embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia confirms
- Hegseth rejects “endless” war, while Trump insists no fixed timeline
- Markets in turn lower; Euro Stoxx sees worst drop since April
Alexander Mercouris had questioned why Iran had not sought more assistance from China, such as taking up an offer of a currency swap line to defend its currency. The fact that China is making public appeals to “all sides” when it is Iran that is barring traffic strongly suggests that private entreaties have not moved Iran. Iran looks to have decided to prioritize its autonomy rather than be unduly beholden to bigger powers.
In addition to noting that oil prices had risen to over $85 a barrel, other fresh investor-rattling entries from the past hour:
Falling debris from an intercepted drone caused a major fire at the United Arab Emirates major oil-trading hub of Fujairah.
The site is a critical port for ship-refueling, or bunkering. It’s also one of the largest oil storage and trading centers in the Middle East. Fujairah holds strategic importance for the UAE, with its location outside the Strait of Hormuz.
And:
QatarEnergy will halt production of some downstream products in including urea, polymers, methanol, aluminum and other products, my colleague Omar Tamo reports. That follows the company’s decision to stop output of LNG and related products…
Separately, Qatar said Iran targeted all of the country’s territory — not just military interests, Al Jazeera said, citing a foreign ministry spokesman.
And:
Euro Stoxx 50 Falls 3%, Two-Day Drop Is Worst Since April
While it is schadenfreude-inducing to see rich residents of UAE scrambling to find ways to leave, the future of this family dictatorship is in question, as Professor Sayed Marandi had warned before the war.
The first real signal of a war is not the missile.
It is the price of exit.
Tonight the ultra rich are paying up to £260,000 ($350,000) for a single private jet charter just to get out of the Gulf, because the normal map is gone.
Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, the transit machine… https://t.co/cTanOjWAhk pic.twitter.com/YqYiJBN5Zt
— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 2, 2026
For instance, from This is Money in End of the Dubai dream: Profound consequences of attack for property, expats, influencers and tourists revealed:
Of the 3.4 million inhabitants, around nine out of ten are from elsewhere. If large numbers of them head home (because of safety concerns as conflict in the Middle East looms), businesses, and society, would struggle to function.
As Douglas Macgregor explained in a talk with Glenn Diesen, lasting damage to the UAE as a commercial center would have knock-on effects for India, as will a $10 increase in the price of oil.
Nikkei has more on India’s oil tsuris in Iran war upends India’s pivot from Russian oil:
The impact from the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is rippling across Asia. The conflict has upended air travel in the Middle East and beyond, closed a crucial shipping lane and cast a long shadow over global energy supplies.
Over in India, the crisis threatens to derail efforts to diversify away from Russian crude. Iran’s move to close the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint through which more than half of India’s crude oil imports transit — could push fuel prices higher and force New Delhi to increase its reliance on Russian supplies once again.
Another consequential event is the cessation of most commercial flights in the region. Dubai is the biggest hub in the world. Emirates has suspended flights in and out until at least March 4.
The is personal distress aplenty, such as those stranded at airports in the Middle East, per Reuters in From handwashed underwear to fake Adidas, stranded travellers wait out travel chaos. But there are even more stuck at their destination from the outbound leg of travel, unable to get home. For instance, from the Guardian:
More than 100,000 Britons were stranded in the Gulf on Monday, with airspace in the region still closed to most flights and overland evacuation regarded as risky while Iran continues to launch missile and drone strikes across the region.
Downing Street said UK officials were considering all options to get citizens home safely, including using commercial, charter and military flights and bussing evacuees across land borders into Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
I’m completely stranded at Moscow airport… alone, helpless, and running out of hope.
No one from @makemytripcare or @etihad is answering my desperate messages.
Russia doesn’t accept Visa or Mastercard anymore.
I have ZERO cash left. Not even for food or water.The Etihad…
— Sunil Gupta (@HeySunilGupta) March 2, 2026
The best path for many flights from Europe, and even the US, to Asia are though the Middle East, particularly since no Collective West carriers are now overflying Russia. So what happens to tourism and commerce?
Back to the significance of the market and economic stress: recall that it was Mr. Market that got Trump to TACO when his Liberation Day tariffs created much investor upset. What will Trump do when caught between the rock of tumbling financial asset prices and the hard place of Zionist bloody-mindedness?
And even worse, there will be no fast path to placating the Iranians even if Trump and Israel attempt a climb down. Not only have they have telegraphed that no promise they make will be honored, but even that it is dangerous to attempt to negotiate with them. Alexander Mercouris also discussed long form that the reason that Khamenei and much of the Iranian leadership were all together to be hit by the US and Israel in their surprise attack was that they were discussing their response for the upcoming negotiation meeting. This is the same ruse Israel used to kill Hassan Nasrallah and much of the Hezbollah leadership.
Some YouTubers are voicing more coded versions of what reader What? No! said yesterday, that the US will need to be evicted from the Middle East:
The US is not agreement capable and now not negotiation capable. You just can’t go there, it leaves nothing that can be trusted for moving forward or resolving the situation. So now Iran’s only path is to create the facts on the ground. They will have to remove all the US bases; Israel will have to shed most of its armed forces and won’t be allowed to have nukes. Whether Iran get’s more than that, we’ll have to see.
This actually might not be as big a stretch as it seems. If Iranian bombing wrecks US bases and forces evacuation, as reader karma fubar pointed out, they may be rendered useless by looting:
The stories of the evacuated US bases in the region, combined with their widespread targeting by Iran, got me thinking about two prior events.
The first event was the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines. The danger of an eruption was recognized just in time, and the air base was evacuated. The predicted catastrophic eruption did occur, and the base took significant damage. The first ones back were looters. The imperial power that had taken the yoke from the prior imperial power it had destroyed was not well loved by the populace. Later that year the US withdrew from the airbase altogether. With no US personnel left, the remnants of the base were then stripped bare.
The second event was based on satellite images in a NYT article of Iraq before/after the 2003 invasion, which showed a major military depot. After the invasion every structure in the entire depot was quickly stripped to the ground, apparently for scrap metal being purchased by Turkey.
Those US bases in the region may find that regardless of actual kinetic damage, that by the time the US personnel return in force there may be nothing left but battered concrete and Superfund-level toxic buildup. It would be easier to build new bases than to rehabilitate the wreckage of the old. The surviving governments in the region will be far less enthusiastic about allowing new US bases on their territory having seen how the US abandoned their “allies” after making them a target. Many of those bases may now be gone for good.
Before we turn to the kinetic war updates, we need to correct our post from yesterday. Our headline said Iran has attacked a Saudi oil production facility. Iran later announced that it had told the Saudis it had not made the attack. If Iran had indeed wanted to attack the Saudis, it would not make sense to make a denial. That left the Houthis or an Israeli false flag as explanations. We had thought a Houthi attack was more plausible. But new information has emerged:
Mind you, this new information is not a smoking gun with respect to the Saudi droning, but it makes the false flag scenario more plausible. TASS is also amplifying the Iranian claim that the drone attack was a deception:
Israel attached the refinery of Saudi Aramco in Ras Tanura in a false flag operation, Tasnim news agency said, citing a source.
“The attack against petroleum facilities of Saudi Arabia this morning was made by Israelis and is an example of the false flag operation,” the source said. Saudi Aramco’s facilities have never been targeted by Iran, he added.
“According to data furnished to us by intelligence sources, the port of Fujairah in the UAE is also one of the next targets of Israelis as part of the false flag operation,” he added.
As mentioned in our introduction, Richard Medhurst has documented extensively how Israeli air defenses are coming apart:
At the risk of a video overdose, I am fond of Janta Ka Reporter. All of the three items he covers below are important: the Marco Rubio admission that the US went to war because Israel was gonna regardless, the attack on the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia, and at 12:50, University of Chicago Prof Robert Pape describing the smart bomb trap:
Times of India gives a feel for how the rest of the world sees the conflict. Note its inclusion of IRCG reports:
And to Twitter:
🇮🇷 Iran’s new missile tactics throw US, Israeli war planning into disarray
Iran dramatically revamped its missile strategy after the June 2025 war. The past 24 hours have shown how:
➡️ Immediate retaliation: Instead of waiting days or even hours, the IRGC began reciprocal… pic.twitter.com/3RTwkLNzgr
— Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) March 1, 2026
‼️🇮🇷🇦🇪 Iran has struck the oil infrastructure in Fujairah, — Quds News Network
▪️According to their data, a fire broke out in the city due to the fall of missile debris.
▪️The Dutch company Royal Vopak announced the suspension of operations at its terminal in Fujairah.
▪️The…— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) March 3, 2026
Updates after 8:00 AM EST are in the comments section.
Thanks again for your readership and insights! Very much appreciated.
____
1 We has said this was one of the ways Israel could force the US to attack Iran. Note that this may not contradict the claims in the Israeli press, that the decision to strike Iran was made in a December 29 White House meeting with Netanyahu. The threat could have been made then to force Trump’s agreement.
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A little tangential to this post, but watching the news from non-Western sources I find it noteworthy that in Iran the war dead are given large-scale public recognition, e.g.:
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194813
…while in the US — putative “land of the free, home of the brave” — dead servicemen are hidden from the public. Instead of acknowledging the loss and grieving in public, the families of the dead are isolated in their sorrow and the whole thing is treated like an inconvenient embarrassment.
It really tells you what the Western elites actually think about the value of a life and how they view their own responsibility for the death of others, doesn’t it?
Saw an image earlier taken from the air of a mechanical digger in a field digging scores of graves for those schoolgirls killed. It was row after row of empty graves waiting.
Minimal MSM coverage of 150+ Iranian schoolgirls murdered. Cue Madeleine Allbright re 500,000 Iraqui children who died courtesy of Bill “Lolita Express” Clinton: “I think it was worth it.”
Fond that image that I was talking about in a Sputnik article-
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260303/wests-silence-on-schoolgirls-killed-in-iran-reveals-its-true-face—russias-mfa-1123754340.html
Thank you. Even Jon Stewart yesterday couldn’t refrain from taking some shots at Khamenei. He tried to recover when the jokes fell kind of flat with some ad lib about “murderous dictator” etc. I turned him off.
I think it was Marandi who mentioned that Khamenei governed the way he did because he wanted to take care of ALL Iranian people, and not sacrifice a good percentage of them on the altar of capitalism.
Off to work now, where I will be walking through a bunch of half alive homeless people to get there, hoping none of them have frozen to death overnight.
We sure know how to do the Four Horsemen here in the US.
Do you mean Jonathan Stuart Leibowitz?
WE THE JONATHANS HAVE RENOUNCED HIS MEMBERSHIP IN THE JONATHAN CLUB.
REASON: JON STEWART IS MEDIOCRE!
SO IS IT SAFE TO SAY, “THE PARTYS OVER. THE RICH PEDOS ARE LOSING,” YET???
ASKING FOR A FRIEND 😀
WHAT A GLORIOUS DAY TO BE ALIVE!
DOWN WITH THE EMPIRE
TIME TO TAKE OUR GOVERNMENT BACK
Ok, we’ve got you surrounded, drop that CAP pistol and raise your arms to the sky where we can see them nice and easy, and no funny business either.
Really? Really? I’ve noticed the occasional antisemitic slur slip past moderation here — have complained about it as well, apparently to no avail. Jewish does not equal Zionist. Ask me how I know. Unless you’ve got a bill of particulars linking Stuart to that mindset, why level the slur?
Are you kidding me? In what universe is pointing out that Jon Stewart is Jewish anti-semitic? Have you lost your mind?
Jon Stewart presents awards to Ukrainian Nazis at Disney World. This is a thing that actually happened. He has never hesitated to carry water for the Neocons.
I think there will be a reckoning for Gaza, and just like Gaza, a lot of innocent women and children will be killed. But they won’t be Palestinian.
You can’t slaughter people like that and have decent ordinary folks not think about revenge on the perpetrators……… Looking for members of the tribe is the first step.
Think you mean especially Jon Stewart. He quit The Daily Show the first time to make an Iran bashing movie.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosewater_(film)
And he also came out like a big limp noodle with his “Rally to Restore Sanity” and I actually thought him and Colbert would actually do something. I was studying “Political Science “ at LSU so this was all new to me. The fact they straight up lied to my face.
IT WAS SOOOO DISAPPOINTING.
But the whole Epstein Revelations 6:9 means that it was all on purpose.
I fucking knew I smelled a dead 🐟
Yeah that’s when he lost me too. Tossing the Tea Party and Occupy into the same bin from that platform struck a real blow for mean money.
I was surprised and saddened at Stewart’s comments..totally manstream thinking. And yeah, the jokes fell flat..We;ll see what he says next week but I think will be turning in my membership card.
Seeing as how Arabs are semites as well, bashing judaism is not anti-semitism (see Doug Stanhope’s No Refunds – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ayctCub8FE).
Jon Stewart has many good points and done many good things, especially regards US politics, war and the genocide of Palestinians.
Not near as good as he was on Daily Show v1, true. Ok, so maybe he’s a bit anti-Persian but he’s no Bill Maher either.
One of the Zucker brothers did an anti-Iran short a while ago but that should not negate how many years of the best comedy movies ever.
>>>We were surprised at the market under-reaction to unprovoked US-Israel launch of a war with Iran,
lot of esoteric technical reasons….lots of puts bought in the past 4 weeks,
Trump’s tweet Monday AM kinda calmed Boomers,
HODL has worked since Covid,
when faced with a “boom” some people’s natural instinct is to take action; for many others, it’s decision paralysis/”Ralph wiggum effect” ;
hedge fund redemptions wires don’t go out until the end of the quarter, etc.
buckle up, now the real fun begins
Yen, plummeted yesterday too…temporarily juiced the carry trade. When we go down, we’re going to take Ms. Wantanabe and Mr. salaryman with us, lmao
I saw a comment on NC recently about how the market reaction to the OPEC oil embargo of the 1970s was delayed, so I investigated a little.
AFAICT, the price of oil had been quite steady for months in the Fall of 1972 and first half of 1973, before notching up to $4.31 in July, 1973. The embargo was declared on 20 October 1973, with monthly production cuts such that by December it was only 25% of September levels. But the cost of crude remained at $4.31 until December, before quickly doubling to $10.11 by January of 1974.
Looking back, I’m not sure where this resilience came from, but needless to say the oil markets are a lot more volatile now. A friend who watches these things closely wonders whether years of Trump have had the effect of normalizing a greater degree of uncertainty.
BTFD, HODL works until it doesn’t, lol
According to American Exception: Empire and the Deep State by Aaron Good it is settled territory among historians of the period that it was the US that engineered the OPEC oil embargo.
– Aaron Good doing quick summation in a comment on his substack
In that interpretation of events it would be logical for the US to make sure to have enough storage to ride out the worst consequences.
Thanks. Can’t get that link to work, alas.
Another idea I had after looking at VIX(each day’s after-market closing is going up) is that the market is slowly incorporating the TACO might not happen, Trump might not even be able to find an exit ramp even if he wants etc.
John Helmer w/Nima
Finding this a little of a hard listen. Helmer using a lot of word, but not always with a clear point. The only real nugget is Helmer’s read that the Russians see Israel as having gone full Chabadist and see Israeli nuke use as inevitable.
Notes that Russia hasn’t done much to help Iran. And Chinese even less.
Also makes a very long hypothesis about the split in the White House between Zionist loons and rationalists who want to win an election. Concludes that Trump will try to scapegoat Israel.
The rest is stuff better covered already by other analysts IMO.
Russia did help Iran, albeit indirectly. That we talk about US running out of interceptors in week or two is of course to great extent because they fired them in Ukraine. Cutting off Europe from Russia oil/gas also amplifies the effect of closing Hornuz (although this helping hand was from US and Eurocrats not Russia).
fwiw, chabad is originally Russian
>Gold has admittedly rallied strongly but that does not have systemic effects.
After today’s opening Gold is now down since the war began. Make of that what you will
There has also been a massive attack on the price of silver by the paper shorts brigade. Down by nearly eight percent since yesterday. Big time volatility is the new normal. The banks are using the Repo facility again, signaling a demand for liquidity. Also of note is that the next Quarterly “Triple Witching Hour” for the American exchanges is just two weeks off, on Friday, 21 March. If the missile barrages are still ongoing then, all bets are off.
Stay safe.
‘Buy on the rumor. Sell on the news.’
Or is it the other way around? / ;)
“…to unprovoked US-Israel launch of a war with Iran,…”. Unprovoked is a word that’s absent from corporate news and commentary but It’s where any discussion of this war should start.
Only Russians start unprovoked wars didntchaknow?
Let’s all get on the same page here. It was a justified launch of a war to preempt an unprovoked Iranian retaliation.
Re Two drones attack US embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia confirms. I saw a video earlier today showing the whole building enveloped in flames. There were Saudi fire trucks pumping water onto that fire but they had to do so from outside the blast wall surrounding that building. The Iranians are not holding back and will not stop until at least every US base in the region has been leveled to rubble. You wonder if those Gulf States will allow the US to rebuild or not as they only makes them targets and they cannot protect their host countries from attack. A Middle east without a US base. Won’t that be something.
Just now found that image of the US Embassy burning and it was an image, not a video as I thought-
https://nitter.poast.org/iwasnevrhere_/status/2028717424925651102#m
later in the thread that image is said to be AI generated based on the fire truck colour.
Needs a second source really. Fog of war and all that.
Guardian has it as a “minor fire” rather than the conflagration in that image.
Fake, made with google AI and it even has the wrong colour fire engines!
I saw that yesterday as well and thought, this does not look right.
Good links from YT. I pat myself on the back as I found them as well looking around YT.
The downfall on an empire in real time.
Generally, the difference between a photograph and “photorealism” is that the latter is often too sharp, the depth of field from different types of lenses is not taken into account. Eventually, I suppose, it will be, but for now anything overly sharp is a clear indicator of a faked view.
>You wonder if those Gulf States will allow the US to rebuild or not as they only makes them targets and they cannot protect their host countries
I wonder if the map even looks the same, and especially if the Sunni clans can retain power.
There was footage yesterday of Shia fighting with molotovs against the security forces in Bahrain.
JFC this is only day 4.
Hypothetical off-ramps are hard to come up with. It feels like everything up to and including multi state nuke use are possible in the next weeks.
We are living a historical moment and I hate it.
Peace, BP
Alastair Crooke says that majority Shia Bahrain may have the first regime change from all this.
The only way Bahraini regime can survive is with outside help–that’s what happened during the Arab Spring. I don’t think they are getting one this time.
Saudi and Emirati troops have already been deployed to crush any uprising in Bahrain. I think that happened yesterday.
Does that leave KSA and UAE short when their revolutionaries start an uprising?
Well, the causeway is a fixed target if Iran elects to destroy it
Majority Palestinian Jordan to Bahrain: “hold my non-alcoholic beer”
I can also imagine the rollback extending into Africa (including Europe) in the case of Gaza-fication of US bases – when the US is out of A/D and standoff missiles, it’s out, whereas Russia/Iran/China can supply offensive missiles.
Maybe today Iran will strike the big US green zone embassy in Iraq.
Apparently just a flesh wound according to official reports.
Looking at flightradar24, the two routes that are still used appears to be a northern one through Turkey, Caucasus and then towards Khazakstan or Turkmenistan, and a southern one through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and then towards Pakistan or India. The southern one looks less used just from the number of planes marked.
So apparently Saudi airspace is still viewed ass safe enough. Could change though. Also, despite the fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan planes taking the northern route appears to pass over both these countries if they go to India or further south. Bit surprising to me.
Erm, you can look at ROUTES but carriers can go only where they have existing landing slots and have personnel to service and refuel planes.
Draw a line from Diego Garcia to Hormuz. That is the axis of the operational area of the USAF and US Navy to conduct combat operations. Nobody involved with air travel- passenger, pilot, airline, insurer, et al.- would want to cross or even get within several hundred miles of that line as they’ll get shot at, if not shot down.
One note: I saw last night that Iran was denying attacking Saudi petroleum facilities and was referring responsibly onto Israel.
One may make up one’s own mind as to whom to believe.
Peace
I have that in this post already, and discussed at some length. Did you miss it?
If I can believe that Kuwait shot down three (THREE!!!) friendly F-15Es on one day by accident then I can believe that Saudi accidentally shot itself in its refinery organ. [/jk]
Did Iran claim responsibility for attacking US embassy in Riyadh? It occurs to me that this wouldn’t be the first time, if it is the case, that Israel attacked an embassy.
From the Col. MacGregor – Nima , he idly states that Iran has 400,000 missiles, the US has perhaps 4000. This would include JSSM and Tomahawks (which have at least a 30% failure rate, and I estimate at 2500 pre-war). Not hard to do the maths. Nima also reported that the US is mostly hitting buildings of symbolic – not militarily strategic – value.
My assessment is that there are strong indications that not only is the US/Mossad deficient in ISR having lost its regional radars (destroyed), but also regional humint due to the starlink fiasco unraveling networks outside Iran. There are AWACS, but their effectiveness is minimal if they need to remain 1000 miles distant – Simplicus reports that Iranian jets were engaging the F-16s that were shot down over Kuwait – giving an idea of how far off big lumbering AWACS need to stay back – Iran is big!
I noticed the “400,000” number too, and thought it implausible. IIRC, it has been reported that Hezbollah has an astonishingly large number of launchable munitions, but most of these are short range-rockets, with smaller (though still significant numbers) of medium-range missiles. If Col. MacGregor’s aggregate number is accurate, I wonder if it might be that there is a similar mix of types and ranges, and that the numbers with range sufficient to reach far beyond Iran’s borders are in the 10s of thousands rather than 100s of thousands.
I suspect he included drones. I think the only US long range drone is the Reaper.
Once the A/D is gone, drones can deliver on target munitions very effectively – a drone flying in the window of a building (local spotters) can equal a 500 lb imprecisely aimed munition.
I can imagine a relay system of drones creating a flexible communication network (If I can do this, so can Iran) with loitering drones in Bahrain protecting protestors against the government (or other Gulfies). I think just a few suicide drone attacks on security forces opposing protestors would cause the monarchs to flee and their fiefdoms to collapse.
I wonder if a first legal step is a Fatwa declaring their leaders apostate is needed.
“I can imagine a relay system of drones creating a flexible communication network (If I can do this, so can Iran)”
From what I have read in Twitter/X, the Russians already implemented your idea and started applying it in Ukraine. The mesh / relay technique allows drones to communicate over longer distances with their human handlers, or to communicate with a larger, HALE or MALE “mother drone” from which they are launched.
Whats the Starlink fiasco? I’ve heard it in passing a couple times now but am not aware of the specifics
The protests from a month or two ago, when Iran shut down their Internet. They turned up a couple thousand starlink terminals that were smuggled in, and it’s believed that they were able to track ones that were distributed, to break up embedded spy networks. Which seems pretty likely, since the Israeli/US strikes so far haven’t shown any special intel, as far as I can see.
I am curious whether the starlink system can geolocate terrestrial terminals, and if so, how hard it is to get this information, and consequently, how hard it is to track down users. Of course, cellular phone systems know where handheld phones are very accurately, but as a satellite based system, starlink has a somewhat different reality.
All mobile communication systems have the fundamental problem of needing to direct incoming calls to the mobile unit, which usually requires having a fairly accurate and timely idea of where all the mobiles are. Historically, cellular phone systems had to know which cell tower (“cell”) the phone was in so a call could be directed to the proper tower. Now, they frequently include a GPS based mechanism to support e911 capabilities, meaning the carrier knows where your phone is within 10m or so, which is both better (directing an ambulance) and worse (directing the FBI).
My guess is that Starlink has a similar arrangement, but with much larger cells since satellite beams cannot be aimed very precisely from their high altitudes. At the minimum, I would think that the Iranian government can tell how many starlink terminals are being used in the country, but this may or may not be much help to them in finding Massad or CIA agents.
Starlink terminals put out RF signals that are presumably different and distinguishable from cell phone signals, no? If you detect a signal that you believe comes from a Starlink terminal, wouldn’t simple telemetry tell you where it is?
Or could you even track it down like an avalanche peeper? I could be way off, but I’d think there would be a way that wouldn’t require Starlink’s data.
If it emits, it can be detected. Even directional antennas “leak” some emissions to all directions in variable patterns called side lobes and Russians have developed devices for the specific purpose of detecting Starlink terminal side lobes.
And of course a drone or dirigible pretending to be a Starlink satellite can easily detect the terminal below, as they attempt to connect. Apparently the terminal also sends it’s location, orientation and ground obstruction data – but encrypted. So, if you can hack the encryption, the terminal will happily tell you where it is.
This to me is the big news hiding between the lines at the current stage of the war. Even if they didn’t shoot down these US jets specifically, the IRIAF is actually flying sorties (Centcom also quietly included that in a statement). Let that sink in: they’re going toe-to-toe with the USAF + IAF & holding their own for now. And there’s little indication USrael is hitting their airbases much, mostly just terror bombing Tehran.
I’ve been saying the US could wind up like tsarist Russia against the Japanese, but even I didn’t expect the Iranians to hit this hard or ramp up conventionally this fast. They blew right past FAFO to WAGTFKY, and besides a few confused rumors in S Iraq, they haven’t even sent in the infantry yet.
I think that’s also the implication of Hezbollah jumping in now. After initial assessments, Iran’s side is confident enough to move to a more aggressive branch of the decision tree. If the US can’t maintain air superiority over Iraq, and Syria is no man’s land, we just may see Hezbollah fighting with CAS.
And honestly, it looks like the Trump admin isn’t going to stop this madness until the Pentagon makes him.
I heard via anecdote of a news report that Thailand had 60 days of fuel. The Bangkok Post reports that the Thai government is diversifying fuel sources from the Middle East which supplies 25% of LNG consumption used for electricity generation.
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, five LNG shipments from Qatar through May are in doubt.
in Thailand it is not only electricity generation – can only comment based on observations during 4 visits over as many years that many vehicles operate on natgas as well semi-trucks –
Yes, the government here has not promoted solar so as to help the incumbent electricity utilities.
Whether or not the MSM reports on possible Israeli false flag attacks on the Gulf states is almost moot. It’s sure to make it’s way to the Arab street and the Gulf States leadership can’t be happy about it even if they are unsurprised. It will be interesting to see what if any reaction this engenders from them
In that context I note this pair of quotes in the o.p.:
and a few hours later
How certain is the attribution of the strike to Iran?
Iran International reports that the UAE says it was drone debris, which would = an attack parried
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603036687
Based in London so presumably an Iran diaspora mouthpiece. But this is presumably an accurate re-report of what the UAE said, and they don’t assign agency.
A Saudi-funded Iran diaspora mouthpiece that supports Israel and wants the return of Reza Pahlavi as Shah, was Craig Murray’s description. (He’s had a lot more to say about them but it’s not relevant here.)
So not an entirely trustworthy source but I do trust them to have quoted the UAE accurately here.
Anyway, thanks. That’s helpful.
Ad hom fallacy, big tim. Please demonstrate more discernment.
They are re-reporing an official statement. They don’t have degrees of freedom.
Sorry, Yves. I’m confused–I think that’s exactly what I was trying to say. (While adding some color on their general bias in case it’s of use later.)
“Drone debris” has been a common talking point in Russia/Ukraine for years now.
No reason to take it seriously unless there’s actual evidence.
Stop misinforming readers. Consider this WSJ headline: Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Towers Hit by Drone Debris.
Depicting Iran as hitting or targeting the tower is VASTLY more critical of Iran than depicting the harm to the tower as collateral damage.
And, why never any mention of inceptor debris returning to theater?
Apparently, all of the debris from Israel & US interceptors instantly turns into pure oxygen and disperses into the atmosphere /s.
See https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/03/03/764919/Tehran-warns-Israeli-false-flag-operations
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman says the Israeli regime is deliberately attempting to expand the scope of the current Israeli-American-initiated war on Iran and drag the region into a broader conflagration.
Speaking at a press conference held inside a school targeted by US-Israeli assaults in Tehran on Tuesday, Esmaeil Baghaei said destabilizing the region is “the project of the Zionist regime, and the United States was also drawn onto this path.”
My emphasis.
There were very long lines at gas stations this afternoon (3/3/26) in Thailand. We had to switch vans on the way to Phuket airport because the original van would have run out of gas and having it wait in line to refuel would have taken hours.
Vietnam = all is as usual at my local gas station. By which I mean no great queues but unnecessarily loud Viet techno.
Everywhere that these horrors are happening some people, oh so very few, are walking in to a different kind of place.
A place full of broken pieces of other people.
These alive people go there because they know that it is needed,to sort out the pieces so that they can tell Mothers and Fathers that their babies are dead.
Spare a thought for them.
I am a witness.
When you go into this kind of place.
You never really get to leave.
Those who read the post before 8:00 AM, please refresh your browsers and have a second skim. We added quite a bit of discussion in the middle and at the end. Search on “Alexander Mercouris had questioned” to find where the new parts begin.
Better to reread the whole thing… Thank you Yves!
I appreciate Naked Capitalism illuminating this heavy fog of war. This is currently the best source that I’m aware of.
It is interesting to me that Trump and co were in a bubble. They may have really thought that this would be over quick. But so far, based on what we’re seeing, this is progressing more or less as predicted by the alternative media space. A few hundred people (or more) called it.
100%. I can’t find anything approaching this breadth of sources, objectivity and incisive analysis anywhere else.
Thank you again, Yves. With all mainstream media permanently AWOL, we’re depending on you and grateful for you even more than usual. Your strategic exile has already proven prophetic.
We Like You!
More than like. Trying to keep sources and details straight gives me a headache.
and not reading the MSM lowers my nausea (just a NC summary) level and need for proper info hygiene showers.
Same,. Thank you NC for all you’re doing to offer clarifying info on this cluster*familyblog*.
Was at a friend’s place and they had CNN on. After a few minutes of that I wanted to bang my head into a wall. They switched to BBC and it only made the urge for self-harm even greater. Scrolling Twitter is like rummaging around in a sewer looking for tasty morsels. NC is the only place I know of for well curated news on this war (and most every other issue of importance).
God I’m tired of being right!
Iran has a very large army. It’s not the best trained or equipped but it’s large. In contrast, Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar, which are far from bff’s with Iran, have well equipped forces but they’re tiny and their populations combined is only 13 million.
The US told the world it had a right to intervene in Venezuela and control the country and its oil. If Iran asserted the same right, it could easily take over Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. And as Iran has good relations with Oman, Iraq, kinda sorta good relations with Saudi Arabia, together they can take control of the Persian Gulf; I don’t think China and Russia would object.
I’m not suggesting it’s a realistic plan but Iran faces an existential threat and, like WW1, borders could dramatically change, and Iran’s stated goal is to cause the US to exit the ME. Plus, the mere threat of taking over these countries would cause Mr. Market to blow chunks immediately.
Only Saudi Arabia has a land bridge to Bahrain, Qatar, and UAE. Redrawing the map will be quite difficult.
The US and EU might not object either as they’d appropriate the bank accounts.
I don’t know if it is true or not but I understand the Iranians have not attacked Oman yet. If so, I do not know why as I believe that they have a US base there.
The Omanis are probably the only good-faith, neutral actors in the region.
Pro Iranian telegram has drone strikes on Salalah Port, Oman earlier today.
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/29543
The damage appears to be very limited so perhaps these were warning shots by the Iranians.
Or a specific target.
Wasn’t there some kind of UAE/Israel activity involving Socotra island, south-west of Oman?
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/916
Omanis are different.
First, they are Ibadi muslims and seen as apostates to both Sunni and Shia (but perhaps the Shia are more sympathetic because they know that feeling of ostracism).
Second, they are an historic trading nation. They are a blue water Indian Ocean nation, not a Gulf nation.
Third, like Iran, their mountainous geography makes them essentially an island nation. Or a Middle Eastern Switzerland. This suits all the other players….
The Oman has pursued neutrality in the region. Its major Western link is the UK buy even that is kept very lowkey. There is a GCHQ listening post at Se’eb and that’s about it.
To The Rev Kev: Oman and Iran, imo, have good relations. It’s the other three, Bahrain has US base NSA Bahrain home to the US Fifth Fleet, Qatar has the major US air base Al Udeid, and the UAE the US Al Dhafra Air Base. Now that the war has begun, I don’t think Iran wants these bases in the gulf any more than China wants US bases near China or Russia wants US/NATO on its border. War is unpredictable; things change.
also add that Iran has the Basij militia, with very favorable defensible terrain. Would make Iraq/Afghanistan look like a Boy Scout Jamboree.
Ironically, Alexander the Great (largely) swept through ancient Persia only because the Persian army was decisively defeated outside of their home turf
Update from Israeli colleagues: the past 12 hours or so the missile alerts have been pretty much constant in Tel Aviv and Haifa. This is the first time they’re actually pre-emptively rescheduling calls due to needing to spend so much time in the shelter. Even last summer they would keep the calls as scheduled, notify when people joined the call that they may have to leave if an alert came during the call and that they would be back in a few minutes. The alerts have been so frequent they are spending hours at a time in the shelters.
This may be psychological warfare on the part of the Iranians. The Israelis are fully behind this war to destroy Iran so that they can “feel safe.” So the Iranians have to break this mentality and keeping the nerves frayed of the population will be part of the campaign to get the Israelis to understand that they have lost this war. That Greater Israel is over. Having constant sirens going off and keeping those people crammed into shelters for hours at a time is part of this. It is going to be shock enough when they realize that the US cannot protect them at all and that somehow they are going to have to make peace with their neighbours.
When this thing is over – and it will be over one day – I wonder how many dual-passport holders will leave Israel permanently.
It is up to the ROW to deny entry to anyone coming from there. No israeli should be safe anywhere on the planet.
Let them emigrate to Antarctica, I would feel bad for the penguins though.
Seemingly, Iran is using missiles as “harassing fire.”
From Wikipedia:
Harassing fire (or Harassment and interdiction) is a form of psychological warfare in which an enemy force is subjected to random, unpredictable and intermittent small-arms or artillery fire over an extended period of time (usually at night and times of low conflict intensity) in an effort to undermine morale, increase the enemy’s stress levels and deny them the opportunity for sleep, rest and resupply. This lowers the enemy’s overall readiness and fighting ability, acting as a force multiplier for the harassing force.
I believe this is one reason why Iran is firing a few missile at a time over a long period instead of large missile barrages.
It also reduces mobile launchers exposure to counter-battery fire. Massed fire from dispersed launchers is more difficult to do but exposing large numbers of launchers at once presents a huge risk. All the ammo in the world is useless if you lack a way to get the ammo on target.
Here’s a dose of the propaganda being pushed if you can stomach it – https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-before-the-revolution-in-photos-2015-4
All about how wonderful Iran was under the Shah. Didn’t see any mention that he was a puppet of the West. If you scroll through enough, there is a passing mention of the West overthrowing Mossaddegh and the Shah having to flee temporarily, but that seems of little import according to Business Insider. Instead, look at the lovely Western-made wedding gown the Shah’s wife wore!
I seem to recall Business Insider is owned by the same Z!noist billionaire as Politico (a German, I think). He has openly and publicly stated that his publications have fawning coverage of !srael as a founding principle, and that its violation by reporters is a firing offense.
In the 1970’s I had a Tehranian gf whose family absolutely hated the Shah. Watching the Israeli series Tehran I was amused at the numerous references about how great life was before Khomeni.
No mention of SAVAK!
This attack was Operation Barbarosssa-level stupidity.
Maybe worse. Israel is going to have nothing left to do but go nuclear, which won’t save them. And then …?
?????
I think Barbarossa was much better planned and thought out.
I think Barbarossa was much better planned and thought out.
Honestly, yes.
But I felt I was already in hyperbole-land.
I don’t think there has ever been a big military operation by a major power that was this ineptly planned!
Barbarossa, Bibitrump, Pearl Harbor, the three are the same on the most important point: we strike hard, then things will happen like we wished for.
No need to overestimate the Nazi generals.
,,,,ahem
Operation Bibirossa
Wordplay at it’s best!
By the beard of the Prophet! ‘They’ wanted a rerun of “Case Yellow” and instead got “Case Yellow Shorts.”
Dang, I thought Operation Bibirossa was one of those craft cocktails served on the rocks with a twist.
Florida Manischewitz?
At least the Israelis and Americans don’t have to pack winter gear…. ;-)
Actually, not completely true – it can get COLD at night in the desert.
The entire operation – and the ME in general – just strikes me as the aggressors just using too much of their own product and believing their own press when it comes to strategy.
rhetorical Q: can’t find a good “true” answer—-why are we (Tulsi and her predecessors) even sharing intel with Israel? ….when they clearly have different interests. Surely this has come up during oversight hearings over the decades?
yes, naive question, as given what the implicit answer, that cannot be said, is.
If I ever said that aloud during a water cooler break at one of my old firms, I’d be put on “a list” by many of the senior people, lmao.
Taco has already lost. This thing was supposed to be wrapped up by Sunday the 1st at 6:30PM EST, when the futures opened. Now it’s spiraling out of control. Khamenei will likely be replaced by … Khamanei, another relative.
I have to be somewhat circumspect, though, in suspecting that plan “B” is Syria/Libyan chaos. Fortunately, Iran is a big country, and it took 13 years to get Assad out. It might take 40 or more at the rate Taco and his band of chumps and poseurs are going.
Medhurst, (parsing a bit, thanks for posting)
Iran is punching above their weight.
Team z has bitten off more than they can chew.
Team z has failed to do their homework.
The narrative that Iranians are excited for regime change and a return of prince-in-exile Pahlavi is falling flat against images of enormous crowds taking to the streets in Minab to mourn the 168 murdered students.
Small correction, isn’t it “Team P” as in Pedophiles, or perhaps “E” for Epstein?
This is an interesting and important question if we ever get to the “consequences” chapter. I suggest that sexual depravity is only a small part of the character corruption of those behind the launching of this war. “Team z”seems more aligned to this. It’s inclusive! What about the poor sod who loves genocide, but is not so into sleeping with kids?
Team PEZ
Thank you Yves for your continuing excellent coverage!
Here are a couple of thoughts I have had about some of the other fronts in this war:
1) Qatar has shut its LNG facility in a deal with Iran, in my view. I suspect Qatar will be significantly spared strikes, other than on US assets, while the facility is shut. Qatar and Iran also cooperate on the North Pars field. There may be cooperation in allowing some Qatari cargoes to leak through the Straits in return for something for Iran (cash etc). After the Oman, which keeps itself politely aloof from everybody, Qatar is the most idiosyncratic GCC state.
2) the US is busy assembling an amphibious landing force to retake Bahrain, not to invade Iran. I imagine Iran has major hopes of the majority Shia population toppling the Sunni sheiks in Bahrain. The previous uprising was crushed with Saudi help. It is hard to prevent a repeat (although Iran has been attacking the causeway) but if the local population can seize and keep control, then the only way Saudi and the USA can oust a Shia state will be to launch a ground invasion and there may not be a bridge to cross….
Obviously, the US fleet would have to pass the straits of Hormuz so in moving a landing force there the US is making a big assumption about Iran running out of rockets and being cowed and the US fleet being able to return to the Gulf!
I don’t think the landing force is there to take the islands in the straits and force the straits open, that would be suicide amid Iranian fire and naval swarms from the coast and, if taken and not obliterated under missiles, how would it help open the strait anyway?
3) the only reason I can think of why Iran has not de-energised Israel and taken out its water supply is because Iran fears nuclear retaliation. But Khameini has gone so I cannot imagine Iran continuing to forswear nuclear weapons, when not having them is an existential constraint on its response to Israel. I think Iran will announce nuclear status sooner rather than later and then take out Israel’s energy and water infrastructure.
4) Iran’s relationship with Russia is subject to very different incentives than China now the Strait is shut. China needs the strait opened. Russia benefits from closure, financially and strategically: both China and Europe need its supply, especially of gas. Russia has much more incentive to support Iran’s autonomy and dominance of the Gulf. China needs the Gulf (rather than Iran) as a counterweight to Russia
5) if Iran can survive and force the US out of the Gulf, could it also try to sponsor a Shia Bahrain (see above) or even a Shia revolt in Saudi? Could the US save the Saudis if it cannot enter the Gulf or the Red Sea…? And if the US cannot save the Saudis, can it creditably defend any other ally and the dollar?
That’s a good observation on point one.
Disagree a bit on point 3. Iran may announce a willingness to strike with nukes, but why would they first-strike civilian infrastructure? Two no-nos in one move, goes hard against the pattern.
Indeed there is no rush to do this unless Iran is on the verge of being defeated and wants to take Israel down with it. Otherwise it serves as incentive to the few cooler heads in Israel to think twice about using nukes. Like MAD but with one side not needing nukes to threaten great damage.
The Medhurst video shows Israel is already in a world of hurt.
Iran is attacking on multiple fronts. A YouTuber argued that Iran would escalate to using its better missiles after it had thinned out air defenses. It has already started doing that in Israel, see the entry of its hypersonics (although those could be deployed almost anytime given their status as invulnerable0.
When air defenses are kaput, Iran can then send in VERY old missiles (if I heard right, almost Scud-level antiques) with VERY heavy bombs. Those are Iran’s bunker busters.
They may prefer to wait until Israel’s air defenses are pretty much gone and then use their bunker buster analogues.
This makes sense and seems doable, the executed with conventional weapons part is important.
I should have been clearer on point 3. I meant that Iran will first obtain a nuclear deterrent and only then attack *conventionally* to take out Israeli power and water. I missed out the important bit!
My reasoning being that if Iran does not have a deterrent, Israel would want to make a nuclear example of Iran to deter other aggressors that attempt to take its critical infrastructure down (permanent Shabbat!); if Iran can return the favour, Israel will lick its wounds in the dark like any other bully that meets its match.
Iran is having to carefully titrate how much damage to inflict on Israel: too much, too soon and the crazies will feel they are going down and will gamble on going nuclear, but too slow and Israel will have time to degrade Iran’s rocket forces and start to suborn its neighbours….
I should have intuited that.
In an argument against myself, my black heart maintains that the upcoming nuclear attack has already been planned out, and only awaits a “go” order. I do not see a way out of this rat trap.
“If I was in charge of the Iranian response, what would I do?” That’s a weighty question, even in its rhetorical form.
I wondered about #1, not just about Qataris but also UAE and even SA. If you want to defect away from US/Israel, you need demonstrable reasons. Obvious inability of US to protect them is a good reason and it also incidentally can help reopen the trade with China. (Of course, Gulfies defecting would help address questions #4 and #5, too.)
re a nuclear Iran
Was claimed by Scott Ritter yesterday in an interview with Danny Haiphong that the designated replacement for Khamenei does not believe nukes are incompatible with Islam (starting at 11:47). Apparently, he was one of the theologians arguing for a change in this position before the 12 Day War (see at 14:32).
https://www.youtube.com/live/8X7L1JIrR0g?si=8OafmIhKgSxil42a
I haven’t seen this confirmed by anybody else and Yves hasn’t included in her summaries. But at this point wouldn’t be surprised if Iran does reverse its policy on nuclear weapons.
On #1
I was wondering what could be going on.
My firm is involved in design and construction of a new berthing facility for supersized LNG ships in Ras Laffan. Qatari Clients not stopping. We are in the midst of getting final design certificates and approvals. Even got some fees paid, yey.
I just read this (Israeli opinion article on Qatar) so I am not the only person to think it!
https://www.memri.org/reports/president-trumps-fake-allies-%E2%80%93-part-ii-qatar-irans-non-secret-agent
Saw a prominent oil analyst say that China, in addition to having accumulated large stockpiles of oil, has the option of firing up coal plants. He thinks the crunch will hit Japan harder and sooner.
Given that, and US decisions to pull back Patriots and Thaads to protect that west asian regime, should be causing countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to rethink their strategic position. As the gulf monarchies are.
Our rulers may have misunderestimated Iran in more ways than one.
Analyst is Anas Alhaji. A good X follow IMO.
If Iran wins and drives the us out of thr ME the us will be a regional power, reduced to the americas.. or maybe it’s own gulf.
Kevin Walmsey covered how CHina has been massively stockpiling crude all year.
Prof Postol in an interview yesterday with Dina on Dialogue Works claimed Japan has 230 days of oil reserves whereas China only has 80 to 100 days. However, 80 to 90% of Japan’s oil passes through Hormuz while only 40 to 50% of China’s crude is similarly restricted. So probably Japan will feel this before China but that may still be a ways away.
For completeness, here are the other countries mentioned (starting at 20:19)
https://www.youtube.com/live/iH6nN0EUGvM?si=R-0wtWPtN73Bq4yC
S. Korea: 200-220 days of reserves, >70% of crude through Hormuz
Australia: 50-60 days of liquid fuel reserves (including petrol, diesel, jet fuel), 30% of refined through Hormuz
Philippines: 125 days of reserves
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116163464520215003
“The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better – As was stated to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be fought “forever,” and very successfully, using just these supplies (which are better than other countries finest arms!). At the highest end, we have a good supply, but are not where we want to be. Much additional high grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries. Sleepy Joe Biden spent all of his time, and our Country’s money, GIVING everything to P.T. Barnum (Zelenskyy!) of Ukraine – Hundreds of Billions of Dollars worth – And, while he gave so much of the super high end away (FREE!), he didn’t bother to replace it. Fortunately, I rebuilt the military in my first term, and continue to do so. The United States is stocked, and ready to WIN, BIG!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
We’ve gone from more or less we already won, to we will win in a few days, to we will win in a few weeks, and now towards a new “forever” war in the span of about 4 days or so
This kind of messaging, along with what Rubio said, does not bode well
Sticks and stones are “munitions,” too, right?
Grump is confusing all that military hardware dispersed to US police departments as part of the “munitions barrel”.
We have endless supply of words….
Chapeau!
And did he really call Zekensky “PT Barnum”? From the carnival barker-in-chief, that’s gotta hurt. Game respects game.
Important to remember that Trump has white matter disease (IM DOC); a clear cut dementia. Would also ask this group if anyone has heard about Hegseth commentary that these are Biblical times, and that numerous complaints have been raised regarding his religiosity being pushed on troops and that numerous complaints have been filed. Finally, need verification that less than quiet questions are being raised regarding the stability of the current US government configuration – Vance notably quiet/absent from the claque.
Maybe all our betters, ah, our leaders, need to be like vance and spend more time on the couch.
I see what you did there :)
A lowlight, although briefly amusing, of the BratGenocide presidential run was Walz making sofa jokes long after it had been debunked.
A sofa with St.Charlie’s widow on it though…
I saw that sourced to Larsen reports on the Slavyangrad TG channel.
Found this:
https://www.rawstory.com/military-2675544403/
Partial:
A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers Monday that the Iran war was part of God’s plan to usher in the End Times and bring about Jesus Christ’s second coming, according to a complaint filed with a religious freedom watchdog.
We need some of those Hollywood guns that never need reloading-with Sylvester dispatching 47 bad guises via Smith & Wesson, but in more of an anti-missile missile sense.
Wait a minute, if Genocide Joe gave all the good stuff away to ukronazis how could he have rebuilt stocks during his 1st term? Is he using Stewie’s time machine?
I have one question re: AD –
if Patriots and THAADS etc. are so useless – I dare state “obviously” – why does it matter in the first place whether they have stockpiles left or not?
What is the difference in destruction caused if there is no AD at all – except certain drones and very old rockets could come through only without any AD in place (although in the 90s Patriots had problems even with those old missiles.)
Either AD works – or it doesn´t. If it doesn´t, why the fuss.
I already didn´t get that discussion on Ukraine.
I think Air Defense can be thought of as a “numbers game” — for the attacker, a certain fraction of offensive munitions reach their targets, for the defender, a certain fraction of defensive munitions destroy or damage incoming munitions sufficiently that some fraction of the defender’s targets are not harmed. No air defense system is impenetrable; the question is, at least in the short-term, “what fraction of attacks succeed?”
In the short term, this calculus determines a rate of damage/destruction of defenders’ targets based on the number and accuracy (and other properties, such as speed) of attacker’s munitions and the efficacy of the defenders’ air defense system.
In the long-term, there is an attritional calculus of relative depletion of attacker’s and defender’s resources, and the economic cost of replenishing these. Because of the nature of US MIC, which has been analyzed to be focused more on supplier profit than on weapon efficacy, more on efficient use of industrial capital than on surge capacity, and the consequent suboptimal efficacy of weapons systems and lack of capacity for long-term industrial scale warfare, US is not in a strong position in the attritional calculus.
Even if an air defense system were 100% effective in intercepting attacks, if it cannot sustain this because it is too expensive to replenish, or the capacity to timely replenish does not exist, it will lose against an opponent that can outlast it. It’s a bit disconcerting that this possibility does not seem to have shaped US planners’ force design thinking.
They aren’t useless.
AD isn’t a bubble that protects everything, it reduces the amount of projectiles that get through and thus forces the opposing side to expend more projectiles to ensure a target gets hit.
As AD gets degraded less projectiles are necessary to achieve the same outcome.
In the Postol talk some have been quoting he says that the Patriots etc have been hugely oversold even though one may point out that air defense does seem to work for the Russians although for them it’s mostly against drones.
Due to the need to get the post reasonably done, I left one bit of good material on the cutting room floor.:
The opener of a good piece at RT;
Goes though the list…
https://www.rt.com/news/633541-iran-attacks-us-bases/
Updated headline to Bloomberg live-ish blog:
From its feed:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-03/iran-latest?srnd=homepage-middle-east
From BBC live blog:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cy0dp1l57nxt
> “Their air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone. They want to talk. I said ‘Too Late!’”, he said in reference to Iran on Truth Social.
This kind of sounds like DJT is appropriating Iranian refusal to de-escalate as his own, which I suppose does make him look like the one with escalatory dominance, at least over the short term.
WaPo:
Joe Isuzu was a Piker!
Regarding India: McGregor does not address this specific item in the interview, but all Gulf States rely on millions of immigrants from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines to run their economy. Remittances from these people are crucial for their home countries, so a deep economic slump or a prolonged interruption of the economic activity in the Persian Gulf may well have repercussions in Asia beyond the problems caused by an increase of the price of hydrocarbons.
It really looks like Modi screwed the pooch. He should never have made that trip to visit the entity. Bibi likely wrote some checks he couldn’t cash, and like a sucker, Modi thought they were good. Funny how human nature never changes.
Now he’s going to have to go back to begging for oil from Russia. If I were Putin, I’d drive a hard bargain.
Although I think Modi can give bibi a run for his money on the anti-Muslim angle.
Worth checking out Brian Berletic’s recent video going over the Brookings Institution’s ‘Which Path to Persia: Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran’ from 2009, in light of the US signaling boots on the ground. The US & Israel are following a plan: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=36YC2QeQeGE
Troubling, if true.
https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for
“It remains to be seen whether and how wholesale Christianization of the Iran war will be opposed by officials inside the Pentagon, or political and legal advocates for secular values outside it.”
I’ll confess to confirmation bias – I wouldn’t put anything past these Xtian Nationalists. Then I searched YT for Iran and prophecy and was astonished by the number of posts. Now I’m convinced these “believers” are nuts and would be happy to see the planet in flames amidst a nuclear winter. Utter madness!
“Utter madness!” Right?!
Bears mentioning six years of Covid is equal to six years of “The crazy is in the water.”
This sounds like Hegseth’s work as he is an uber Christian. Don’t forget that the guy has a Crusader cross on his chest and “Deus Vult” (“God Wills It) on his bicep. I mean, how many people have tattoos like that? Talk about your red flags.
Hegseth at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem speaking on the building of the third temple:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/5N1Y6DgRo1Xb
He is a Vampire Blasphemer disguised as a Christian, as are all Christians who willfully support War and Subjugation for what ever purposes… The Christ taught and lived Compassion, they do the radical opposite. Thus they Blaspheme the Spirit, which is unforgivable.
The Stupid provocation of the Russians into war, the gleeful butchery and starvation of Gaza; all those who stand by these blaspheme the Spirit of the Lord.
Amen !
(truely, I concur wholeheartedly)
That’s not good at all.
A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that Pres. Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to a complaint by a non-commissioned officer.
From Saturday morning through Monday night, more than 110 similar complaints about commanders in every branch of the military had been logged by the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF).
The complaints came from more than 40 different units spread across at least 30 military installations, the MRFF told me Monday night
So….2 different nations are fighting an apocalyptic war they kicked off by murdering a major Shia religious leader? And both the
Jews and Christians think they are God’s chosen people and the other will eventually perish in fire or something?
This shit is at least 300 years out of date.
Fwiw: Trump meets all Thiel’s criteria for the Antichrist….
Don’t forget that the return of Jesus is the central part of Islamic Eschatology, too–especially Shia.
Thiel, whose company is providing targeting date to the Zionist entity and the US, among other things, also fits Thiel’s criteria.
As long as anyone thinks they are God’s chosen people over and against another peoples, they are effectively still polytheistic. A monotheistic religion would see all people, all nations, all races, as God’s chosen people, his children.
The “we are special” sentiment may be embodied in the statement “God bless America” that is often heard in the USA.
Shouldn’t the, allegedly, Christian USA have the all powerful God simply “bless the world”.
Asking an omnipotent, non-resource constrained, God for favoritism seems very un-Christian and rather arrogant.
But then I am a non-believer.
God bless America does not in itself mean god damn the rest of the world anymore than I love you means I hate everybody else. This tidbit of reasoning does seem to be above the heads of the Hesgeths and Lee Greenwoods of the world. The problem is not Christians or Christianity anymore than Buddhism being the problem in Rakhine. The problem is bad people (Doug Wilson and co.) Giving bad doctrine to worse people (Hesgeth and co.) The Scofield Bible Bunch produce and attract bad actors but I can’t say in any fairness that even all or most of those poisoned by that particular tradition of commentary and interpretation are anywhere near bad actors. Since all religions and non and anti religions involve people they reflect and amplify the vices of–people. Look at all the proud atheists in the Epstein files alongside the full gamut of those professing to practice what used to be called “the higher religions. “
They want to burn the world bring about Christ’s teturn so that can goto heavan and watch everyone else goto hell, a supremely selfish and cruel act. God of the Old testament, and Christ of the New Testament, were both strongly against and angry at cruely and subjugation of others. (Read Isaiah, Jeremiah, and many places in the Gospels) You cannot be more Unchristian than that…
God grace the people of Iran with courage, endurance, and healing thereafter. God save Palestine!
I don’t doubt it. Xtian fundamentalists have been pushing their beliefs in the US military for decades now. From 2005 – Christian fundamentalist bigotry reigns at US Air Force Academy.
The Academy was already a fundie loony bin in the late ’80s/’90s. (along with Colorado Springs…). Couldn’t say how far back it started.
So a little vignette on Iranian “powers that be” psychology.
I was watching a presentation by a Russian historian given last December – they have these “history festivals” a few times a year, where about a dozen different lectures on whatever historical topics – about the death of Griboedov, a Russian nobleman and, briefly, a “liberal-leaning” writer, who’d been posted as ambassador to Persia in 1828 and was killed in a famous massacre of Russian diplomatic staff in 1829. Which event probably had a lot more resonance in the Russian Empire than in Persia – Griboedov was quite well known, and generally liked – but that isn’t the point.
So this historian, after laying out the story, talked about how only a year or two or three ago he went to Iran to try and find the actual locations surrounding various events around Griboedov’s tenure as ambassador. And, after not a small bit of searching, he actually found the house where Griboedov had been murdered – abandoned and heavily dilapidated, judging from the photographs, but still standing. The historian, then, with the aid of either the Russian embassy or some other official structure, put in a formal request to the Iranian government to restore the house as a historical site, with the Russians taking care of all the expenses.
Within a few days the Iranian government razed the house.
I do not speak Farsi, and I am not embedded in Iran, so am probably missing more than a few details of local politics. But it seems to me there are still a lot of fairly raw wounds there in the sense of – we used to be a Great Power, at least regionally, and then had to endure not just a decline and a contraction, but decades of “occupation” – physical, as during World War 2, being a puppet state as under the Shah, and so on.
This is not to say the Iranians cannot take “rational” steps – like buying weapon spare parts from both the Soviet Union and the US-via-Israel during the Iran-Iraq War. Or, apparently, installing some Russian satellite antenna in their “Shahed” drones, if you believe yesterday’s photographs from Cyprus (and, if true, three guesses as to which satellite that antenna had been pointed at). But I would guess their first instinct is to try and “handle things” themselves rather than ask for help from the other Great Powers, lest they once more become beholden to said. On top of which, I am sure that some in Teheran today are thinking that, perhaps, at the end of this conflict Iran will have become the de facto regional “Great Power” that can bargain with the Russians and the Chinese as equals, rather than be “propped up” by their money and weapons.
It’s a thought.
That leaves out rather a lot of the Griboyedov story. He was posted as ambassador after Persia had signed a fairly humiliating treaty with Russia, ceding what’s now Armenia and chunks of Azerbaidjan and Turkey. Griboyedov had been one of the main negotiators of the treaty; his job as ambassador was to enforce the terms and in particular to collect the 20 million rubles Persia had agreed to pay.
In the course of the payment negotiations two Armenian concubines either fled to the Russian embassy (well, that word’s a bit of a stretch but it was the building where the Russians were temporarily housed so it was the equivalent) or were stolen, depending on whose account you believe. Local clergy called this a violation of Islamic law and a “mob” (that term’s obviously a piece of propaganda but I’m not sure what noun to use here) stormed the residence and took back the concubines, and from there things got violent. Reports of the dead don’t seem to include any Persians–they’re Russian reports after all–but there’s a story that Griboyedov killed 20 or so himself on his way out.
In the aftermath the Shah was forced to apologize and turn over his most precious jewel to the Russians.
Who would cover the expenses is irrelevant; a formal Russian request that Iran commemorate this as a historical site was either a deliberate insult or extraordinarily tone deaf. There’s nothing odd in the Iranian response; I don’t think any government anywhere would respond differently under the circumstances.
Iran has been living the legacy of the multiple traumas of its confrontation with modernity and centuries of humiliation more deeply than most important 21st century states. I appreciate your comment for drawing attention to these factors shaping the Iranian view and often rough relations with neighbors. I’d like to see more.
Yeah me too. There seems to be something analogous to the Chinese “century of humiliation,” though from my understanding some Persian nationalists and monarchists hold grudges going back to the 7th Century Arab conquest, not just the Russian then Brit than American humiliations of the last two centuries.
The Battle of Qadisiyyah, where Arabs defeated the Sassanid Persians decisively in 636 is still remembered as a moment of great humiliation by the Iranians, I heard. Iirc, Saddam Hussein named his invasion of Iran (or, a key operation thereof) Operation Qadisiyyah for this reason.
IRGC claiming they took out two THAAD batteries. If true, then I guess they’re going to get even more of a free hand attacking from now on. Potentially a sudden escalation in attacks?
“They will have to remove all the US bases; Israel will have to shed most of its armed forces and won’t be allowed to have nukes. Whether Iran get’s more than that, we’ll have to see.” – from the reader comment in the piece proper.
I am positive there is no serious actor in Israel who wouldn’t see this scenario as an existential threat, and if it becomes imminent I am completely convinced they will use the nukes they do today have. If anyone believes otherwise for whatever reason I’d desperately like to know why because from my comparatively cozy perch in the lower 48, this is beyond terrifying.
When I was young, I identified with Wile E. Coyote meticulously building some contraption. In those cartoons, Coyote was much more the protagonist than antagonist because the majority of the cartoon focused on his engineering creativity rather than the Road Runner. The Road Runner would make a brief appearance, say beep-beep, and then run away. Coyote’s failures to capture Road Runner were almost always a consequence of his own foolishness (even though he was a certified genius) and not Road Runner’s malevolence. If Road Runner actively harmed Coyote himself or Coyote’s ingenious devices, then we would start a vindictive war between the two—something we certainly should not be teaching our children. I will now stretch and make an analogy between this not-so-serious kids cartoon with the very serious possibility of nuclear annihilation.
Just about the best way to get the Israeli Zionists to not launch a nuke would be if they blamed themselves for whatever failures rather than blaming those “evil and malevolent” Iranians. Wile E. Coyote presumably blamed himself for the failure to capture Road Runner, and he went right back to the drawing board for his next invention. This is not going to happen with Israel and its American enablers. Some combination of Jewish and Christian Zionism, neocon ideology, racial supremacy, neoliberalism, libertarianism, and just plain money and the delusions it causes will lead to and justify a nuclear bomb.
With that said, I sincerely hope Iran, China, Russia, North Korea, every Middle Eastern country, and the occasional sane voice within the Pentagon is devoting an incredible amount of resources and planning to stymie Israel from launching a nuke. The rest of the world really ought to put in every possible effort to identify nuclear capable Israeli submarines and figure out a way to discourage a nuke. I hope they have intelligence and spies infiltrated inside Israel. Bribe those within Israel who could authorize a launch if you have to. Give them immunity. Give them whatever sexual favor they want. Undoubtedly, those of you who have military and diplomatic experience could suggest better alternatives to stop Israel from launching a nuke.
“Susie Wiles Coyote?”
When does Trump dump this lodestone around his neck?
Another Torah thumping yokel with a big lobbyist contract to carry out?
Anything is possible and I won’t deny the dangerous moment we’re all in. But I think all the talk about nukes rests on a basic assumption: that whoever does it won’t be nuked right back.
Yves has already mentioned a dead-hand conventional strike aimed at Tel Aviv, but beyond that, there have been subtle hints for years that Iran may actually already have a minimal force de frappe. That’s not a “ARRRGH WMD” complaint either; I trust the Iranian gov with a few dozen warheads more than most countries, and it’s a bit of casuistry, but they arguably haven’t broken Khamenei’s fatwa or even lied about it.
While there’s no clear declaration anywhere, it’s also likely that some combo of Russia, China, Pakistan, and/or North Korea have quietly extended a nuclear umbrella.
In short, picture that for the first nuke that goes off in Iran, the US (probably DC) eats a nuke & Tel Aviv gets turned into a crater, just without fallout for the Palestinians’ sake. For every additional nuke on Iran, 1 American and 1 European city eats a nuke.
Combine all of this with Jewry’s famous attachment to life (beneath all the bravado about Samson and Masada) vs. the likely global pogrom that would follow a nuclear war vs. relatively benign non-nuclear terms of surrender for Israel.
Nuclear weapons anywhere are a collective threat to humanity, but thankfully there is still a logic that holds them in check.
We highlighted on January 11 Iran had indeed changed its doctrine:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/01/is-an-attack-by-iran-imminent.html
I’d be curious about how Iran having a handful of warheads could be interpreted as consistent with Khamenei’s fatwa, but moreover I think we just differ in how we feel about Israel’s relative lunacy – or perhaps the structural political incentives of surrender, eg. what dingusansich above said about humiliation or nuclear war. Still, sanity has somehow prevailed for 80 years in this respect if no other.
Sorry I couldn’t reply sooner. I’m not a mullah & have never dug super-deep into the no-nukes ruling, but if the Iranians already have the bomb, I think it comes down to a bit of hair-splitting on posture & what constitutes a “weapon”.
IIUC the ruling is largely based on the early Islamic rules of war, particularly don’t harm non-combatants or lay waste to territory. At the same time, it is a religious obligation to resist oppression by all honorable efforts, especially among contemporary Shia.
I think the way they would square that circle is by keeping a minimal, credible deterrent on a purely second-strike posture, especially with a dead-hand launch procedure. Keeping it mostly undeclared except when threatened (and not bullying with it) would also help.
At that point, the system could arguably be called more of a warning or fortification instead of a weapon. IDK if the government clerics actually think that way, but if I can consider the argument, they obviously can. And a lot of things suddenly make more sense if you work from the hypothesis that they do have a credible nuclear force.
On Israel going crazy, I agree they’ve lost their minds (maybe “spoiled rotten” is an even better way to put it). But even beneath that, I suspect there isn’t a country of people on average more terrified of dying. If Israel actually comes to the decision between commiting a global suicide-bombing or just climbing down from their ledge, I do believe they’ll take the deal.
ZOMG, this entire video is worthwhile, but see the part starting at 13:50 on how the US has abandoned its citizens in Israel:
I’ll add, I saw a video of a retired US general who was vacationing in the gulf (Dubai, I think) and now is stranded. He said Americans there were very disappointed to hear that the UK government is arranging transportation out for their citizens, but the US had simply abandoned them. Other people have reported that private jets are being hired by those that can afford $300k+.
I hadn’t seen the Huckabee tweet. I wonder how many people will eventually get back to the US and, going forward, self-identify as Polish or Ukrainian, after this.
Wretched thought, but would the death of American citizens in Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East provide some justification for “boots on the ground”? A “limited” intervention to ensure their safety from “indiscriminate” Iranian bombing?
A similar situation was mentioned here last June. I can’t find the specific comment (I don’t recall if it was here or somewhere else), but at least one commenter suggested that it might have been intended specifically to keep those with dual citizenship and the means to do so from hightailing it out of Dodge, e.g. to avoid conscription – like that one feckless punk currently hiding out in Miami – with the human shield aspect just being a bonus.
This is the post I was recalling.
A MoA commenter claims that Israel attacked the council of 88 clerics who gathered to elect a new Supreme Leader.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/03/u-s-china-and-the-four-week-time-frame-for-the-war-on-iran.html/comment-page-10#comment-1293476
Holy Wars, the punishment due:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5o8Daw1ZsY&list=RDJ5o8Daw1ZsY&start_radio=1
Trump psychological defenses run even more amok:
Trump knocks Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly over Iran criticism: ‘MAGA is Trump’ The Hill
The propaganda is also getting extreme:
Other tidbits:
“Senior Israeli official”
Clarification please!
Trump is MIGA, not MAGA.
Thank you for the excellent coverage, Yves! The one question I have seen conflicting answers to (on sites like MoA) is whether all traffic through Hormuz is interdicted or whether Iran is letting Chinese (and maybe Russian) tankers through? It seems to me even if those countries were being allowed exceptions, there would still be lots of danger to those ships (from possible false flag attacks or just dumb mistakes).
Marine Traffic shows zero tankers transiting the Strait as of 10:45 PST. There MAY be tankers with their AIS transponders off, but that seems to me to be a good way to get a missile in the teeth….
Thanks for the link. What a shitshow.
It’s difficult to imagine Iran would consider any kind of exception to the closure. As far as I can tell, there’s no insurance. Even more of a reason would be Iran not wanting to introduce more chaos potential onto an already overly dynamic situation.
The closure of the straight would seem to put a hard cap on team z’s calendar. Also notable, I’ve seen the closure described as an embargo on the US, this by official looking Iranian channels. Now that is an interesting framing.
Excellent and informative article. Especially interesting is the observation that American is no longer negotiation capable.
Here is a little discussed historical fact. One of the reasons that the “barbarians” finally sacked Rome was an event where the Romans murdered barbarian emissaries who had been summoned to discuss peace with Rome.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
Extra ironic because Iran was in the other role then, but the story goes that’s also what caused Genghis Khan to invade and destroy the Khwarazmid empire. The shah supposedly beheaded Mongol trade emissaries & obviously the Khan was not amused. I never understood exactly why, but watching Trump now, I guess power really does drive some people insane.
Not to be a downer, but heated predictions of Iranian victory and U.S. withdrawal from the Gulf disquietingly resemble exaggerated expectations about Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, and Iran in the aftermath of Oct. 7. Alt-analysts—with the notable exception of Lawrence Wilkerson—concentrate on dwindling weapon stocks and vulnerable assets but for some reason overlook a latent U.S. and Israeli option.
Anybody remember Clouzot’s Wages of Fear (Le Salaire de la peur)? A colonial oil company can’t put out a massive wellhead fire. It finally contains it with a massive charge of nitro-glycerine.
Recall this line from JFK’s American University speech, much admired by Jeff Sachs and delivered soon after the Cuban Missile Crisis: “Nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war.” Call me crazy, but a withdrawal from the Gulf after running out of interceptors pretty much defines “humiliating retreat.”
This with the U.S. and Israel led by floridly malignant narcissists. Draw your own conclusions.
I’m not a believer, and perhaps I’m overestimating a tail risk, but I pray that Iran understands this and—the horrible injustice, insult, injury, and abuse inflicted by the West notwithstanding—will find a way, with the help of friends and at the right moment, to pull back from the brink and let the U.S. and Israel retreat under cover of victory hasbara.
Perhaps Khamenei’s words to a child illuminate a way.
I do not recall any such expectations save that Hezbollah weirdly did not pound the shit out of Israel after they killed Nasrallah.
Mr Market vehemently disagrees with you.
The damage to the US base ALONE is unprecedented. And go have a look at the Medhurst video.
The risk is not that Iran can’t prevail. It’s that it will stop before the job is done.
Hezbollah didn’t pound the shit out of Israel because they had no air defense and the IDF stopped invading into Lebanon (because they took heavy casualities) and the Lebanese government quickly cut a deal to avoid seeing Beruit get the full Gaza treatment (which was already underway).
Plus, the Iranians sat on their hands through the whole episode. Hezbollah HAD to bunker down. They’re leadership was crushed because their HQ bunker wasn’t strong enough to handle something like 80 bombs of 2000lbs each. They’re internal communications were compromised, penetrated by Mossad and their big advantage was that they were set to win a ground war, but that wasn’t happening.
This isn’t to cheerlead the IDF, but facts are what they are. Hezbollah wasn’t ready for the approach that the IDF took and they had to make a tactical/strategic retreat.
Plus, Syria went down later and with the Israelis sitting on Mt. Heron and the rest of the Golan Heights looking down at them, they were out-flanked in a way they hadn’t been before.
Retreating into a shell like a turtle was their best option. It seems like now they’ve chosen to come out of their shell and join the Iranians. Let’s see what they’ve got planned.
Hizb’ullah was not a sovereign entity, ie it was not the Lebanese gov’t, and the loss of political leadership deprived it of its ability to play Lebanon’s domestic politics in favor of stouter resistance against Israel at that time, in other words. This is obviously a different story from what Israel spun in the aftermath and the Israeli refusal to honor the ceasefire, even before things hit the fan last few days, probably made fighting the more popular option among the average Lebanese, I imagine.
The assumption in all of the above discussion is that Houthi, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia and China do not have long standing communication pathways that successfully interdict the surveillance of the Five (Six) Eyes. Assumptions that the course of actions are independent, spontaneous reactions to unexpected events would belie the precision of long term organization and planning of all of the above. Also assumes these discussions do not provide opportunity for technology transfer – note the many Palestinian, Iranian and Shia who train in Russian and Chinese universities. Western journalism spends little time actually researching these possibilities, rather giving detailed architecture to their own specious ideation. Those who offer alternate views are quickly sidelined and devalued as “conspiracy theorists.” We are now living with the result.
Oh, I don’t doubt the coordination and cooperation. But, at least in case of Hizb’ullah, they are a Lebanese political faction that must navigate Lebanese political waters where others (the Sunnis, the Maronites, etc) are presumably interested in not making more fuss than is necessary and make nice if they could, and unless Hizb’ullah could at least gain their acquiescence, it couldn’t keep on fighting as I understand it. I wonder if things are the same now–US, along with Israel, must have blown enough credibility that I have trouble imagining other Lebsnese factions openly opposing Hizb’ullah, at least for now.
Agree that the opening is apples to oranges, but the concern of nuclear Armageddon seems on point. If nukes enter the fray, Iran stands to lose no matter how much they are winning. How this affects Iran’s strategic planning is yet to be seen.
If nukes are used, even “tactical nuclear weapons”, it is not only Iran who loses, that much is certain.
Scott Ritter, Col. McGregor and others have mentioned this.
When the “nuclear football” is in the hands of an unhinged, cognitively challenged person, and the Secretary of War is an utter imbecile, it is difficult not to be a bit worried.
For sure. It’s the point when things go all-play.
Thanks for your comment, Yves. Perhaps I wasn’t clear. Let me try again.
After Oct. 7 much commentary claimed that the Resistance had defeated Israel and that the end of the Israeli apartheid state was in sight. My thought was, From your lips to so-and-so’s ears. Apparently so-and-so wasn’t listening or leastways was on another calendar. Now Gaza is destroyed, grotesquely consigned by the UN to Trump and cronies as a real estate project. Syria is a new Libya. Modi was in the Knesset a week ago ingratiating himself with fellow enemies of Islam. Is this victory?
What I’m hearing now has a similar vibe. Once again it’s my hope that the Resistance will triumph, and in a way it already has, supposing we define “triumph,” following Jacques Baud’s definition of “jihad,” as “struggle.” But it seems to me there’s a problem. I may sound like a concern troll when I express it, but that can’t be helped. If Iran defines victory as decimation of Israel and the elimination of the U.S. from the Gulf through military action, before that can happen it seems much too likely that Israel or the U.S. will resort to nuclear weapons. John Helmer says this is likewise a Russian analysis.
This isn’t about the bravery and genius of the Iranians or the efficacy of their technology and weapons. It’s about how a pair of rogue nuclear bullies will respond to what they consider an unacceptable defeat by a nonnuclear state. I would not want to gamble on their restraint. Might a nuclear atrocity lead to the destruction of Israel and a U.S. retreat? It might or might not. But even if it did, consider the cost, not only the incalculable death and destruction but also the ensuing nightmarish geopolitics, even if the conflagration stays regional—which, of course, it might not. You’re correct to identify the risk of stopping too soon. But there’s also risk in pushing an opponent into a corner. There’s a nontrivial chance that it could precipitate a pretext to lash out. Maybe I’m both alarmist and wrong, and the brink I think I see is imaginary or anyway farther off than it seems. But this is a game with such unfathomable potential losses that it seems better not to play—or if that’s impossible, then to pack up winnings and call it a day at earliest opportunity rather than to push your luck.
In the story I linked to, Khamenei told a boy not to dream of martyrdom but to grow up and become a scientist to serve Islam. I hope those who replace Khamenei share this perspective, don’t overplay the Iranian hand, and celebrate Iran’s accomplishments and resistance by living and, if necessary, fighting another day, with time on your side. That seems an achievable success—and some say that’s the best revenge.
Iran can do huge damage to the US without making it existential for Israel and inviting nukes. And that’s what they seem to be doing.
And if the result is a blow to US support for Israel then that will be an effective and more subtle attack on Israel itself. The tail may be wagging the dog but no dog then no tail.
U.S withdrawal from the gulf would be existential for Israel.
“Nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war.”
Vietnam? Afghanistan? The US has been there before.
The US wanted the French to use nuclear weapons to settle the Battle of Dien Bien Phu, and IIRC even offered to provide two bombs. The French declined, and lost the war for Indochina. The US then got involved, but never used nukes either.
Then again, if the likes of Macron and Trump had been in charge back then, who knows what might have happened.
What Acacia said.
Also, apart from the usual bs about prestige and resolve, we’re talking about fundamental lines of communication for energy and trade, the underpinnings of the petrodollar and reserve currency status, a genocidal state with a Samson option policy, an Israel lobby that will insist on action and all but owns the political and media castes, one quite possibly blackmailed president whose morality comes from the High Council of Mars (i.e., it’s nonexistent), another who’d like to stay out of prison, both of whom are several standard deviations deep in malign megalomania, and if that weren’t enough, an adversary able to pulverize Israeli cities and American bases as conventional weapons run out. Hume warned against the fallacy of induction, and normalcy bias works till it doesn’t. This situation set isn’t like the others—and even some of those saw advocacy for nuclear strikes. It’s much more dangerous.
The Guardian has given surprisingly poor coverage of the war (or perhaps I am naive). The editors have made no effort to cover up their shilling for Israel — I thought they were more sophisticated than that.
Were you to rely on their coverage, you would find massive attacks on Iran, and consequential attacks on Gulf states, and most Iranian missiles reaching Israel being intercepted (except for a tragic few that sneak through). Israeli military censorship is never mentioned.
Maybe it is because I am reading Guardian US, and they are just less skilled, but I expected more professional dissembling. In the Cold War, the press depended on an appearance of even-handedness in service of more effective propaganda, but we’re in the 21st Century now.
>Maybe it is because I am reading Guardian US
Nope it’s the whole outfit, UK and all.
Since having the balls removed over Snowden they have been essentially an arm of MI6 and the UK foreign policy establishment.
On Zionist stuff specifically:
They led the tar-and-feathering of Corbyn with smears about anti-Semitism. (This was an intelligence test that many of my UK friends failed).
Resolutely one-eyed throughout the Syrian civil war.
Cowardly and gutless while covering for the genocide in Gaza. Eventually offered timid criticism when it was too late.
The quality of writing became more and more blind repetition of propaganda lines, whether Israeli or British. As the Zionist narrative fell apart, so did the persuasiveness of their guff.
Am I the only one who thinks it is significant that all of the Joint Chiefs went along with this?
Every American service member swears a solemn oath to “Defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies Foreign and Domestic”.
Every member of the Joint Chiefs has violated that oath, they are forsworn.
And that matters because the Authority of a military leader is a variety of Moral Authority, a “Leader” without integrity won’t have many followers when push comes to shove.
Even at age 72 I am surprised at how cheaply some people can be bought.
Well, I suspect that they are to a certain extent bought, or maybe Epsteined.
My personal biggest disappointment is Tulsi Gabbard. How she can still look at herself in the mirror is beyond me. But events like this have a way of revealing character.
On the plus side, M T-G stands tall.
On the other hand the military is supposed to take orders from the civilian administration. The last “good” war was WWII, from then all were more or less illegal and to the detriment of US. Yet they were all supported by the political establishment, including this latest one, where both parties agree on it. And I’m not sure that military somehow overriding both executive and legislative branches would make things better.
Vice Admiral Fred Kacher was removed as Director of the Joint Staff in the week before the attack – no reason stated – possibly because he wasn’t on board with it.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/4472724/pentagon-removes-joint-staff-director-after-less-than-90-days-on-the-job/
The Pentagon announced on Wednesday that Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was restructuring leadership and that Vice Admiral Fred Kacher was being removed from his position as director of the Joint Staff. Kacher assumed the role on Dec. 5, 2025.
“We are deeply grateful for Vice Adm. Kacher’s dedicated service to the Joint Force and his contributions to the Joint Staff,” Caine said in a statement. “Since graduating from the United States Naval Academy, Vice Adm. Kacher has answered the call for every kind of selfless service imaginable. The Navy will be glad to have him back, and we thank him and them for the loan of his leadership.”
I cannot remember who, but one of the military connected YouTubers said it was because Kacher said the US didn’t have the materiel to pull this off.
Important to remember that Hegseth has fired many top generals/admirals, pushed others out by insisting on actions they considered unethical or actual war crimes, and, in fact, fired virtually all of the officers in the Judge Advocate Corps – all who could have placed some restraints on his actions. The Joint Chief chairman, Dan Caine, had to be brought out of retirement because no one would take the job (or would be acceptable to Hegseth). Given validated reports of his pushing Biblical, end of times counsel to the troops, questionable how long Caine and others will stay in place. And don’t forget his attempts to court martial the retired, now Senator Mark Kelley. … and he is our Sec Defense/War whichever he prefers.
Trump realizes he’s the dog; claims otherwise (NY Times).
meanwhile, no end in sight
these people are so stupid they killed everyone that they wanted to takeover
The Israeli-US side of this war is run by complete blithering idiots and genocidal lunatics.
This is all just surreal.
I mean this is making George W. Bush look like a professional.
Well, at least that means that they weren’t crazy/dumb enough to think that the Pahlavis could realistically take over…
“Khamenei and much of the Iranian leadership were all together to be hit by the US and Israel in their surprise attack was that they were discussing their response for the upcoming negotiation meeting. This is the same ruse Israel used to kill Hassan Nasrallah and much of the Hezbollah leadership. ”
Sadly, looks like most people haven’t yet fully grasped what this actually means, because we reason about past negotiations with lower-tier countries, or because we think Trump gets along well with Putin.
Now, imagine there’re such tensions between the USA and Russia that similar negotiations are taking place, because the situtation is so bad WWIII may be around the corner and it’s the last chance to avoid a global conflagration.
With Russia (and everyone else) fully aware of the US past modus operandi of dirty tricks, the only sensible conclusion the Kremlin and Russian Security Council will come to is that this, too, is merely another US ruse and that they will be targetted for elimination after some time, when it’ll be time to gather to discuss things.
Or, to put it bluntly, if things get so bad that difficult negotiations between the nuclear superpowers have to occur to prevent WW III, the recent history of US attacks in the middle of peace negotiations means that Russia will have to go for a massive nuclear first strike by day 3, or risk being subjected to a US first strike by day 4 of these negotiations.
Thanks, Donald Epstein Trump!
And of course, no other sane government will ever negotiate with the US if war looms, from now on, because it will know what it actually means. The USA as a nation, as a society, as a people, cannot ever again be trusted to negotiate, in any way, about anything, important or mundane.
I think the point of eliminating everyone in Iranian leadership in that attack was to make sure there would be no leadership for Iran. Which means this isn’t a regime change operation – it is a regime collapse operation. Israel doesn’t want regime change. Israel doesn’t want a partner in the region. Israel doesn’t want a region that has a stable arms control agreement. They want chaos.
The lesson of the last several years is that the Israeli leadership would rather rule over a graveyard than share a garden.
The Kurds in Syria were betrayed by the United States not even two months ago. I know they have a reputation for falling for it every time but surely this has to be pushing it just a step too far.
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Iran and its Iraqi proxy forces have intensified drone and missile attacks on armed Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan Region as fear grows that the Kurds in the west of the country may stage an uprising against the regime and act as US boots on the ground.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/03032026
From the linked article : “Last week, Iranian Kurdish opposition parties announced a new political coalition – Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan – to unify their efforts against the Islamic republic and advance Kurdish self-determination … The alliance called on “the people of Kurdistan” to “align their political conduct with the demands and instructions” of the coalition. It urged residents to protect administrative and service institutions during what it described as a potential period of “regime’s submission [collapse].” It is also called to avoid acts of personal revenge, stay away from military and security bases, and support one another during the period, which is marred by economic hardship and conflict.”
So the TLDR appears to be that the Kurdish opposition parties of Iran are not calling for active rebellion, and are perhaps reluctant to be used as disposable shock troopers for regime change.
Lead story as of nw: UAE considers striking Iranian missile sites as regional war spreads Axios
versus
I agree with “versus”. What on earth do the various Gulf states have to offer, militarily? Those states are ALWAYS focused on maintaining internal stability.
There is ZERO upside to them joining the war, and 100% downside as those royal families could end up thrown overboard, without a country to govern.
This is israeli desperation and straight from their standard playbook. When in doubt, make the problem BIGGER, always be escalating!!!. But that only works because they’ve always counted on the US to step in and restore order.
Now, we’re in a spot where the US CANNOT restore order. There’s a lot of phone calls being placed to Putin to “please, please step in and stop this”. Why on earth would he lift a finger? And even if Putin wanted to do so (which he will NOT), would the Iranians listen? There’s no leash for the Russians to yank on the Iranians. The Iranians are fiercely independent and will NOT follow anyone’s orders.
MacGregor’s right. Iran’s cleaning out the US presence in the region. They’re going to pay a heavy price. It’s going to take months, but it’s underway. They’ll emerge as the strongest regional power when it’s done. All the Gulf Monarchies, if they survive, are going to be looking to Iran for their marching orders.
>What on earth do the various Gulf states have to offer, militarily?
Scott Ritter went OFF on this point the other day. Said they wouldn’t be let anywhere near the US/Israeli operation as they would just screw things up. Recounted Iraq war stories of them crashing, missing easy targets, and just turning back in fear long before reaching the target.
Speaking of “Wily”, has anyone heard from Erdogan? Apparently he had a call with Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz today.
PM Shehbaz, Erdogan stress need of ‘maximum restraint’ by all parties in Mideast crisis, Tribune, pk.
Turkiye sure could be a wildcard.
The Turks are, if anything, one of the “winners” of this mess so far, and would be absolutely insane to step in unless they really had no other choice. Also the Turks are well aware that they are next on the Israeli menu, this just from last week: (Feb 23 2026) Turkish ‘threat’ talked up in Israel as Netanyahu focuses on new alliances
Etc etc. All of planet Earth is gonna be a threat at the rate they are going.
Hah, thanks for the link. I missed that.Team z living in dreamland. Who, pray tell is going to do the heavy lifting on that adventure? Ursula’s army? Lol.
Unlike in Syria, IDK if Türkiye really nets anything from this. They’re spared direct damage, but when you factor in their energy needs, this is already going to wallop their economy.
Qatar, their primary Arab sponsor (good luck keeping Syria afloat financially now) is also in deep trouble. And while it’s materially minor at first, Erdoğan isn’t going to win much prestige as a “leader of Muslims” by just sitting things out.
True, you need extra heavy quoting around “”””winners””””, but primarily I was thinking of their regional rivals blowing each other up and, ideally, the Turks could sit back and pick up the pieces afterwards relatively unscathed. That’s the theory anyway, but clearly being in the same neighborhood as Israhell is like living next to a ticking time bomb no matter what happens.
Thanks for this post.
I think it’s possible this will go on much longer, spread wider, and kill more people than anyone now imagines. My point of reference is WWI. Industrialization and mechanization changed the entire nature of war, but the generals did not realize that and carried on with the old tactics made obsolete by the new developments. Cavalry charges? Open field bayonet charges into machine gun fire? WWI was a, if you like, a beta test of new hardware power and the generals’ understanding of that power. Per wiki:
“The industrialization of warfare during World War I fundamentally transformed military strategies and technologies, setting the stage for modern combat. The conflict highlighted the deadly combination of advanced weaponry and outdated tactics, resulting in unprecedented casualties and a redefined approach to warfare.”
I think new hardware like drones and hypersonic missiles and AI could have the same effect now. That’s my biggest worry: This war will go on too long in the mistaken belief that old thinking with fundamentally new kinds of hardware is up to the task of shortening the war with minimal casualties.
I think militaries will adapt in the interests of force protection, the chief adaptation being “dispersal”.
Provided things do not escalate to employment of nuclear weapons, I don’t think we will see a return to WW1/WW2 levels of military casualties. Civilian casualties, due to disruption, via even conventional weapons, of the systems that keep our civilizations running, might be large.
WRT WW1 and new tech, it’s worth remembering that new tech was not that new: the Maxim gun, from the British perspective, really did save British lives–see the casualty ratio at Umdurman. What WW1 brought was that Europeans were now subject to the “wog” treatment–machine gun bullets cut down English or Germans no less than they did the Sudanese or Herero. If they “saved” lives of the “right” people by making sure “wrong” people died in droves, everyone was now the “wrong” people.
It seems that the Russo-Japanese war already showed much of what would happen during WWI: machine-gun fire devastating infantry, static trench fighting, enormous casualties caused by artillery, difficulty of movement warfare — plus what happens when modern fleets clash in a naval battle.
There were plenty of observers from European countries during the conflict, but it seems as if they either did not change their views of what future wars would look like, or when they did, were not taken seriously (I vaguely remember that an Austrian staff officer insisted in vain that the KuK army had to reorganize its troops and tactics around the machine-gun as the centre-piece of every infantry operation).
The Russians, the Ukrainians, and the North Koreans have now the experience to wage a modern ground war. It is probable that the Iranians will soon be the ones knowing exactly what a modern over-the-horizon missile+aircraft war entails, and how to win it.
I wrote an essay on this subject a couple of weeks ago in the context of Ukraine.
The idea of stupid Generals had a long run but isn’t taken seriously by historians today. Western armies got rid of incompetent Generals quickly, and rapidly introduced major tactical changes. By 1918 the war on the ground was unrecognisable. But even good Generals couldn’t do much about the fact that armies were large enough to form continuous deep fronts that could last for years and stop any but limited advances. Likewise, as Joffre and others realised, the war would be one of attrition, where size of population, economic and colonial resources and manufacturing industry would decide the outcome. Individual battles were much less important than was the case in the past.
I don’t think the current conflict necessarily introduces much new technology as such: it’s rather that most of it has never been used in conflict before. Long-range missile/interceptor engagements of this type are new, and the question (I’m wondering whether this is worth an essay) is whether in fact we are in a new form of war of attrition, where not just ammunition, but fuel, spares and support become factors in victory.
WW1 redux is happening in Ukraine where mini Verduns and Sommes are occurring with each Uke counterattack. It is that theatre where we see the tech advances that heretofore were never seen in battle before.
Getting back to Iran, the one country that I haven’t heard anything from is Egypt. They’ve managed to retain an even lower profile than Jordan.
HUH? There is no mini-Somme anywhere in Ukraine.
The front lines are so thinned that they are regularly penetrated by small forces of Russians. They would otherwise use bigger parties save for the pervasiveness of ISR, as in if they sent in more, they might have a drone on their tails.
And Ukraine is not able to make any real counterattacks. The ones they say they made are mainly managing to run into a spot they lost, taking a photo with a flag, and running out. The few that raise to the level of kinda-sorta operations are now quickly rolled back by Russia.
I imagine just about everybody in the Gulf with a smartphone has by now seen videos of large crowds of Bahrainiis cheering on the Iranian missile strikes on the local US naval base.
Dogs and dog food, apply to the pedigreed now?
Patricia Marins covers Iranian launch capabilities and degradation
Will Iran maintain its launch capacity? (Twitter post)
My Twitter is also filled with (because I like them) posts complaining about how trash Twitter is, which is true. It’s a joke for any realtime breaking news.
Is there the possibility Iran moved the sights, or most are mobile?
Thanks for the Marins post. Really interesting.
She concludes that Israel/US will not achieve their objectives, and that the Iranians will run the war for the long-term to maximize the cost to the enemy. They have learned from the victors of Vietnam.
And her point about Iranian launch capacity is not that their launchers will be eliminated (she believes they will survive), but that the overhead surveillance often makes them too risky to use, which moderates the amount they can fire. So in the short term they will work on eliminating drone surveillance, and aim for bleeding the enemy slowly in the longer term.
Transportation Ministry okays plan to gradually reopen airspace starting overnight Wednesday-Thursday
To allow foreign nationals to leave? Lol, no:
Citizens you are needed for reserve duty in this time of national need! /s
How many Israelis abroad would actually come back to put on a uniform again given the present situation?
We have to let them die over there so we won’t die over here.
– GWBush
so nobody can leave israhell, but we want everybody out there to come home? to be human shields? or is this a sort of masada thing?
a while back alon mizrahl(sp-2) had a rather long essay about how the zionists have a sorta pathological need to be hated. as a 40 year victim of psych/emotional abuse, i get it,lol…but damn.
this is taking it a bit far.
and we’re gonna force the americans to bunker with us, too?
meanwhile, a peek over into christofascist twitterland (hagee, et alia) is illuminating,lol.(rather, the opposit…”thy hand, great anarch, lets the curtain fall, and universal darkness, covers all”)
i dont ‘follow’ any of them, but i keep a list, handwritten, so as to check in on them when shit like this happens.
i havent said a word about any of this to any of my neighbors.
because the armageddon thought…well, you can almost smell it.
also came across this:https://x.com/MENAUnleashed/status/2028788969324888109
which i am too ignorant to parse as to its reality…but i thought it was innerestin as all get out.
about the alternative financial systems set up between iran and russia, and spreading into BRICS, etc.
would love for someone more knowledgeable regarding such high level infrastructure things to weigh in at some point.
and on that same tack, ive been thinking abt the several islamic banking systems…dont know if or how all that millienial sized thought plays in.
so nobody can leave israhell, but we want everybody out there to come home? to be human shields? or is this a sort of masada thing?
They did this last June too. There’s only one real airport (Ben Gurion, technically there are at least two others in Haifa and Eilat but they don’t do more than a handful of international flights) and the airspace has been closed since Saturday morning (late Friday in the US). Overland border crossings to Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon are open, but Jordan and the east side of Israel near Jordan have all been targeted by Iranian strikes, and Israel has resumed heavy bombing in southern Lebanon and Beirut the last two days. So people are leaving overland through the Egypt crossing.
100,000 more reservists (I think, but it came right after 50,000) have just been called up. A lot of these have already recently done tours in Gaza or non-combat support roles around Gaza or Lebanon. Out of the 45 or so Israelis I interact with regularly, 2 that I know of have had multiple 6 week (non-combat) to 4 month (combat, Gaza) tours in the last two years. The ultra orthodox are still draft dodging.
hk asks above how many would actually come back. It is hard to say but I’ve tried to gently probe my colleagues about this after drinking when we are on business trips outside of Israel. Pretty much everyone I work with is sabra (multi-gen born in Israel) and on the secular end of the Israeli political spectrum. And still, all of them are also ex-military (mass conscription, remember), their parents served, their children have or are about to. Their parents are aging nearby, their kids are starting to have kids of their own, they have property, cars, dogs… they say they can’t just up and flee and leave all of that behind. But there are also personal professional networks and these are people in the tech startup scene: if they flee they torch the network. And I believe there are legal repercussions (probably with other forms of blackballing) for avoiding reservist duty.
More updates:
What’s next? The Oriental Orthodox Churches (Oriental Orthodox is not Eastern Orthodox–the former is mostly Middle Eastern, the latter Eastern European) calling for a crusade alongside their Muslim brethren against us and Israel? (Sarc, but not sure any more…)
> Btw now officially both Sunni and Shia clerics have publicly called for Jihad against the US and Israel.
Anybody got more on the Sunni part of this claim?
There have been reports that Ayatollah Sistani will soon issue a fatwa. His last was against ISIS in 2014, and he refrained from issuing one against the American invasion of Iraq. I wonder if his holding back may an attempt to check Israeli use of nukes, some thing like a Shiite nuclear option.
Re: Spain. Yikes! I wonder if der Trumpenfurher knows we get an awful lot of our transformers from Spain? That’s one of the places we trade with that makes stuff we need.
Trump was also telling reporters-
‘Spain actually said that we can’t use their bases, and that’s alright. We could use their bases if we want. We could just fly in and use it, nobody’s going to tell us not to use it.’
Governance by petulance. What if Spain cuts back on military cooperation altogether? Do they really need to be in NATO? Will there be a carve out for those transformers? Such an idjut.
I want to see Oreshniks on the Orinoco in my lifetime. Trash every nuclear non-proliferation treaty because we now know what not having nukes means.
#AktUpAndGetFackUp (via X)
This gave me a (gallows) chuckle (per Al Jazeera):
President Zelenskyy holds talks with Qatar, UAE leaders
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed Iranian strikes with United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani.
Ukraine has great expertise in countering drones and missiles, honed over four years facing waves of Russian attacks.
“We discussed how we can help in this situation and support the protection of lives. It was agreed that our teams will work on this,” Zelenskyy said after a call with the UAE leader.
After the call with Sheikh Tamin, Zelenskyy added that the Ukrainian and Qatari teams will remain in contact to “determine how we can jointly provide greater protection to people”.
Kyiv officials say Ukraine is ready to send drone specialists to the Middle East to help down Iranian drones if its partners help to broker a ceasefire in its war with Russia.
—
We’ll provide modest assistance if you do something which you have no capacity to accomplish. For now, we’ll just chat.
Israel bombs council during vote count for Iran’s next supreme leader – Axios
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603034649
Number one story on that site is “Iran sleeper cell fears rise after Austin shooting, Canada gym attack”, so appears to me to be an anti-current-Iran propaganda site.
I’m curious how people are finding their way to Iran International links. Google search? News feeds? I think there’s probably a story in here on just how propaganda works in the current environment.
It’s not just a random Iranian-expat site; it’s extremely pro-Israeli/pro-genocide and their original funding was allegedly provided by MBS. They support a terrorist group working toward secession of Arab portions of southern Iran and they support the return of Pahlavi. You wouldn’t think this would naturally draw a lot of eyeballs…but somehow they seem to.
They’ve turned up repeatedly in Craig Murray’s reporting and it’s an interesting collection of threads to pull on. I’m sure there’s a book in here if anybody were able to do the leg work without getting kneecapped.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2025/05/mi5s-fake-terror-plots/
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2025/05/mi5-take-us-for-fools/
Note the timing, right before the 12-day war. Except for the alleged ties to Eastern European mafia you might almost think they were arms of UK security/intelligence. /sarc
They are unduly prevalent on Twitter, so it looks like amplification by algo.
Fake news.
See tweet in this comment: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/iran-war-israel-air-defenses-crumbling-us-base-attacks-continue-as-markets-set-for-wile-e-coyote-moment.html#comment-4385427
Pakistan mediating between Saudis & Iran. (Andalou Agency)
Pakistan FM: “I told (Iranian Foreign Minister) Abbas Araghchi that we have a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia (signed last year) … he asked me to ensure that Saudi soil is not used against us,” he said.
“I had shuttle communication with Saudi Arabian authorities and their foreign minister, and similarly with Iran too.”
Because of this communication, “there has been minimal impact of war on Saudi Arabia,” he said.
Also:
Commenting on Iran’s counterattacks on “so-called US bases,” Dar said: “There have been attacks on infrastructure and airports as well.”
“Had this not happened, we would have rallied these countries to stand up and have a joint voice against Israeli and US actions,” the minister maintained.
I think this is thew same guy who appropriately called Pahlavi a “whore” just a day or so ago?
This is a bit more measured. And maybe something is lost in translation here, but also more weaselly. What’s with the ‘so-called’?!?? Whose military is currently populating those bases then, or was until a few days ago? And maybe he didn’t get the news, but as discussed above, there are plenty of reports of Mossad sabotage on Saudi infrastructure. Not a good excuse for failing to rally other countries so far. Maybe he’s afraid of getting the Imran Khan treatment?
Spotted on HuffPost just now –
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/troops-being-told-to-prepare-for-armageddon-in-iran_n_69a6ffe3e4b076ac5d63c82c?origin=home-latest-news-unit
Russia offers India a helping hand with energy supplies amid Gulf crisis:
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/gulf-crisis-russia-willing-help-india-energy-supplies-oil-prices-us-deal-iran-2877148-2026-03-03#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17725528863037&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.indiatoday.in%2Fworld%2Fstory%2Fgulf-crisis-russia-willing-help-india-energy-supplies-oil-prices-us-deal-iran-2877148-2026-03-03
Mr Trump just out saying insurance will be provided for Persian Gulf shipping and US Navy escorts to break the blockade of the Hormuz Straight. It will be physically blocked by the carcasses of sunken ships soon enough at this rate.
IRAN WAR: WHAT is THIS!?! Millennium 7 * HistoryTech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Brcs-ZHd_Xg
https://memes.yarn.co/yarn-clip/b46a8281-bdb3-4e4f-98b4-888e114ab629
Being that this event is only a few days in …. lots more surprises are on offer ….
Trump is high as a kite
Trump says US navy will escort tankers through Strait of Hormuz ‘if necessary’ (BBC)
It’ll be open season on sinking US warships.
I guess France is clearing its throat?
ZOMG yes.
I have read and heard repeatedly that in parts (most?) of the Strait, there are what are essentially cliffs on the Iran side. Where there are many either natural or Iran constructed caves. Which have already been set up by Iran to pigeon-shoot ships.
But before we escalate to sinking US warships, Macron is considerate enough to offer to do the French one first? Because if Israel is going to end all this in Samson’s option nuclear inferno anyway, at least we can check all the boxes on the escalation ladder. BTW, where is Keir, can’t he tow one of his carriers to the party too?
“tow”. Very nasty, I love it.
my kingdom for several tugboats!
and here i thought the early 2000’s were surreal.
Surreal, like the early 2000s was. You put your finger on it. I had just turned 17 in 2001. That was a weird time to grow up.
France is standing 1500km behind those partners, not standing by them!
The Arctic Metagaz has been set on fire off Malta by a suicide drone. Someone doesn’t want Russia to profit.
Critical thinking fail, again by taco.
First of all, there aren’t enough ships to escort every tanker.
Second, costs.
Third, geography. See Yves comment.
If enough hobbyists get involved with their home-made cannon or vintage artillery it could be quite a novel experience for the US Navy.
Sending an aircraft carrier and a frigate into an area that Iran has already targeted… ?
Umm, supposing those oil tankers were sunk and the US Navy couldn’t do anything about it, what makes people think that Trump would actually pay up on those insurance policies? Those shipping lines would be depending on a ‘Trump promise’ but how much is that worth?
More on this from EndGame Macro
When Tanker Escorts Become A Tripwire (Twitter; sorry)
Top trending article at the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/mar/03/minab-school-bombing-how-the-worst-mass-casualty-event-of-the-iran-war-unfolded-a-visual-guide Includes quotes from US Central Command and Secretary Rubio.
For the record, I regularly read it for its football/soccer writers, including its recent hire of US soccer writers.
Speaking of soccer, Iran’s Women National soccer team are still playing in the Asian championships in Australia. It’s possibile that Iran’s Men National team may withdraw from the US tournament. I can’t imagine Trump banning them, but predicting what Trump does is a fool’s game.
Trump will kick Iran out for unprovoked aggression and instead nominate Israel as the victim. FIFA will agree, eurovassals will applaud. And I’m not even joking.
Doubtless there’s some perilously unscrupulous prediction market that has odds on this precise outcome.
I think this outcome is very unlikely, but there is no agreed upon process for what happens when a World Cup host launches a war on a World Cup participant. The most likely outcome, I think, is Iran will withdraw. Iraq is in a world cup play off for one of the last remaining World Cup places later this month. If they lose, as the next highest ranking member of the Asian confederation’s qualifying process, they may be offered Iran’s vacated position anyway. If they win, the next cab off the rank would be UAE. I think there is close to zero chance of Israel being offered Iran’s spot.
those writers any good?
while probably not at its 00s/10s (ie pre-Athletic) heyday, the grauniad’s football coverage is almost certainly the best thing about it. It’s good.
Tennis coverage, too. Play-by-play for the grand slams.
I read for that and the book reviews.
Whenever I dip into an article on world events, I start growling and muttering and am tempted to start flinging shoes.
“No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.”
Orignally, I thought that this was a US imperial/colonial exercise; I may have been wrong. Pope Trump and Archdeacon Rubio, may have other plans for a Crusade in the Holy Lands. What better way to start than to make a martyr of the Ayatollah to be sent to heaven accompanied by 100 unfortunate virgins.
“A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that President Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to a complaint by a non-commissioned officer.”
https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for-armageddon-return-of-jesus/
Did a quick search, looks like Spain is one of those rare cases where the US has a trade surplus. So, Trump will add to our trace deficit.
Sanctioned Russian LNG Tanker Explodes in Mediterranean — A First of Its Kind?
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Sanctioned-Russian-LNG-Tanker-Explodes-in-Mediterranean-A-First-of-Its-Kind.html
US Consulate in Dubai got smoked too:
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194920
i raised a daughter, the thought of 100 teenage girls in one building….
How many cliques can they form in a week?
Women who live together tend to synchronize their periods, 100 girls with PMS at roughly the same time… Oh boy.
And then the Holidays, do you buy all of them the same stuff?
How many times a day will you hear “But DADDY…” ?
one for the ‘we are ruled by morons who are also high’ file
Rubio attempts to clarify claim that US decided on Iran strike because it believed Israeli attack was coming
Translation: “we realise regime change is a bust so now we will try to destroy everything”
Netanyahu is the worst president that ever had the U.S
says Yoda.
Iran war could reopen EU debate over Russian gas, Norway says:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-war-could-reopen-eu-debate-over-russian-gas-norway-says-2026-03-03/
TIL Trump’s niece has a blog and podcast that is quite vocal against him: https://www.marytrump.org/p/what-is-it-all-for
It’s not really that interesting but she does look a lot like him
Or it may be that her uncle Donald has been overexercising his stable genius and needs a good long rest in a calm contained environment until he is ready to meet his Maker.
Maybe this is the lead in to Trump’s threat of biggest hits to come; with air superiority, Israel and the US can start dumping monster bombs with B1s.
Air Superiority (Patricia Marins, Twitter)
With greater access to Iranian airspace, ballistic launchers are under greater threat. We know from Ukraine that you can launch drones from just about anywhere, but with mostly only drone launches Iran can’t do near the kind of damage it can today I would think; Can still set the whole Mideast aflame though.
This underscores something that I thought was very odd: we haven’t seen Iranian air defense at work pretty much ever, not back in June, not now. We say that it exists and that US and Israeli air forces are avoiding Iranian airspace, but, in fact, we know that the size and terrain of Iran actually works against its air defense capabilities–the vast size leaves plenty of openings and the mountainous landscape allows for low level penetration while avoiding radar detection comparatively easy. In fact, B1 was designed precisely to faciliate low level penetration of defended airspace, so that a B1 could have gotten near Tehran to drop bombs is not necessarily too surprising.
However, we always knew also that the Iranian air defense forces are, well, a bit limited. It combines a mix of older Western technology, upgraded by Iranians–like improved variants of the Hawk–and some older Russian tech (S-200 remains the backbone of Iran’s high altitude AD, I think, although there are stories aplenty about Iran having received more modern systems like S-300 or even S-400. The stories about new radar systems arriving from China and Russia should be considered in light of the fact that, even if the stories are true and they are actually manned by Chinese and Russians, integrating into Iran’s air defense network in a hurry is bound to be troublesome. So I am willing to accept that, should US and Israel choose to enter Iranian airspace in force, it won’t be too challenging. The constraints, rather, seem to be from the range (too far for normal fighter bombers and, even if Iranian air defense is not particularly formidable, tankers make for very easy targets.). B-1s don’t have the range problem the way, say, F-15’s might, so their presence doesn’t really indicate “air supreiority” per se, but simply the weakness and porousness of Iranian air defense. In fact, If I were Iranians, I don’t think I’d want to try to actively defend all teh time: better to learn the patterns of the American air forces operating over Iran and, once their habits are identified, ambush! This is, after all, how the Serbs nabbed the F-117’s (were there two or just one?) Who knows, maybe that is how the Iranians got (Assuming it was their work) the F-15’s. But for Iranians to learn B-1s’ habits, they need to see them operating over their skies for a while, since, I think, their appearance is new to this campaign.
I’m a bit confused by your first sentence. Three F-15s have been confirmed down under some murky circumstances, and now there are claims for a fourth F-15 down. There are also many videos of both Israeli and USian drones being shot down, as well as wreckage on the ground, e.g.:
https://t.me/SabrenNewss/183926
https://t.me/SabrenNewss/183901
Otherwise, your argument for strategy makes sense. Let Team Epstein think they have air superiority and then down a bunch of these megabuck aircraft with the latest AD tech.
I am probably short on accounts of the shootdown claims-likely result of not having looked at information carefully/systematically enough–that’s a huge caveat, I didn’t fess up to clearly enough. I was thinking about shootdowns in the deep interior of Iran and, where we are talking about drones, the big, plane sized ones. I don’t think I heard that many claimed shootdowns–the F-15s that were claimed downed were on or outside the edge of Iranian airspace, consistent with the aircraft not openly challenging Iranian AD. In this sense, the claim of the B1 penetration (and how it allegedly demonstrates US gaining air superiority over the center of Iran) seems odd and I was, more than anything, trying to make sense of that to myself.
At any rate, like I was saying, if some US aircraft, especially high value targets like B1s, are seemingly able to penetrate into the center of Iran, I’d get suspicious if it’s a trap. Tomahawks won’t be terribly useful against well-dug in missile silos. US will have to bring in big bombs, those that can only be carried by fixed wings like B1 and B2. If I were Iran, I’d love to bring some of these down (and, if Russian and China supplied the necessary hardware, they’d love to see the same, too). But they’ll need to set things up before shooting, both giving us a false sense of security as well as making sure that their gear “works” just short of actually shooting.
The latest Scott Ritter now with the Judge
Scott Ritter : How’s the War Going, Mr. President?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIFUDkHRNTk&t=1s
One question though since everybody curses Trump – why would anybody else in his position now act any different?
After all we all agree, I think, that the system is above all the issue here and that embodies the countless elites who are profitting of the current events and not just some few individuals who essentially either swim with the swarm or will go down.
So why are we suddenly making such a great difference between POTUS and everybody else? Especially as it is acknowledged in the alt. media to some extent that secret intelligence might have kompromat (am not sure how that works out in detail, but it is an argument – think Blumenthal.)
So, if Ritter claims the Russians say Trump is crazy, I doubt they really mean that – they might rather hint a the whole USA being crazy which Trump is only a cut out for.
Lets assume we had Harris now escalating against Russia instead. That would be even crazier.
Or would AOC or Sanders or Gavin Newsom or JD Vance or Tulsi Gabbard or Rubio – had they agreed on the necessary deals and thus dependencies to achieve POTUS position – really act in a sane manner – at least as foreign policy is concerned?
This gets philosophical fast … are you saying that no one has agency? Or that we, as a society, have gone so mad that we shouldn’t expect anything else but madness from those who are in power?
I’ve often wondered if Pontius Pilate could have made a different decision the day he sentenced Jesus to be crucified. It’s not so cut and dried as when I was a kid and thought he was all to blame. There was a mob, inciting him to condemn an innocent man, and Romans to please.
Great men make their own paths, and I tend to think that there is still some hope for mankind.
Trump (or a hypothetical Harris) could always have had Bibi arrested when he showed up in DC, and taken the consequences on a personal level. All he would have had to say is that he as President determined that Netanyahu was a national security risk and sent him to Gitmo.
I think agency is hard, far harder than people think. Funny that, while you thought of Pontius Pilate, I thought of Jesus Christ–the plot of the Last Temptation of Christ. In a sense, “agency” was the last temptation in that novel (and the Scorsese film.)
“Great men make their own paths, and I tend to think that there is still some hope for mankind.”
I am tragically sympathetic to a carlylean view of history and therefore tend to agree with you. The United States particularly has all the materiel, the human resources, and the god-touched geography for great man rejuvenation to really take.
The trouble is however that I have tremendous difficulty seeing any great men here on the horizon.
Some ways it could happen:
1. Inspired leader with nothing to fear plays the game to get elected then goes rogue. Disdvantageous in that said leader would be using cunning for good at tremendous personal risk.
Or.
2. Mr Smith goes to Washington type of honest rube gets misread by the deep state as a pliable and weak asset, then goes rogue. This would take a lot of longshot occurrences compiling.
No one who pursues power isn’t corrupt. So almost any electable president would be suspect to our moral compass.
Judge Napolitano and Prof. Mearsheimer. utube, ~35+ minutes.
*** Prof. John Mearsheimer : Is Trump’s War Beyond Control?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO7u5fibEiE
Unconfirmed, but Iran may have downed another F-15:
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/04/3530748/iran-shots-down-another-us-f-15-fighter-jet
Michael Hudson has an article in March 2nd Counterpunch that Iran had offered a great deal and were attacked anyway because the goal was not about production of a nuclear weapon but to control oil.
Yeah, I know I have a life time ban, but this is important.
If this video legit of the Iranians bombing Tel Aviv, that would have to be the work of one of the newer generation of Iranian missiles-
https://www.bitchute.com/video/sSrqEEJ7rmQ7 (10 secs)
That particular video strikes me as AI-generated. Not just because the visuals seem “off” somehow, but because the remarks from off-camera speaker — “Oh my god, it’s Tel Aviv! I can’t believe this!” — seem like an odd thing for a Tel Aviv resident to say. (I’ve noticed that the audio in AI-generated videos often includes awkward dialogue that I assume repeats portions of the prompt.)
Think it’s AI
I think it might be AI if you look at the railing and flag + the solar panels on the houses (which all look pretty identical but Idk Tel Aviv)
As the comments on that video point out, that is AI. The voice is a dead giveaway, it doesn’t have the acoustic properties of a voice caught on a phone camera on a balcony, and saying Tel Aviv is too convenient and not like what people in real videos have said. Also the smoke trails look fake and aren’t dissipating fast enough. It’s just too cinematic and doesn’t feel like the many real Tel Aviv bombing videos out there.
I’m reading on Thomas Keith that the Iranians have struck a us destroyer which was refueling, both ships afire.
supposedly that’s the claim made by the IRGC. of course, twitter rarely gives a family blogging citation, which *should* be easy as these are bluecheck accounts (no character limit)….and the IRGC release media outlets, whether something like presstv or Tasmin.
Skeptical as this is a capability Iran has not demonstrated (yet). but of course, don’t mind if I’m wrong. but as always, it’s on the onus of the engagement-farmer scraping Iranian media to give the citation, not my job as a consumer.
Thomas Keith seems to fall for easy propaganda all the time. If he posts something major and it’s unaccompanied by video/photo, it’s not 99% not real.
I saw “targeted” not struck. This keeps coming up. IRGC says “we targeted X”, twitter recycles it as “Iran struck X”
Happened with the day 1 attack on the USS Abraham Lincoln and again with Bibi’s house on Monday.
Targeted ≠ struck.
For a thought exercise, let’s take the announcement that Iran does not have a functioning Navy, Airforce and Air defense at face value. Let’s also assume that multiple levels of leadership have been eliminated in the air strikes. What are the implications for this?
At some point the missiles are going to run out for Iran and the pre existing plan would have played out. All the US bases in the ME would have been hit etc, but with minimal casualties.
So in the above situation – what next?
We will have a major country without a functioning leadership and depleted of self defense. I am guessing that this is the reason why seeds are now being planted for having boots on the ground. I am guessing that we will take a stab at installing a puppet leadership and by either negotiation or brutality, attempt to bring order. Is that why we have the 4-5 week timeframe?
Let’s be pessimistic and push it out to more like 3 months and with 5 more months to get boots on the ground with a “Peace keeping” force. This will all be accompanied by the biggest propaganda and brainwashing narrative in history. Combine this with heavy handed voter ID checks and intimidation and folks just not turning up because of apathy and disillusionment, there seems to be a very very narrow path where the mid terms are not as bad as we are thinking now for the republicans.
Internationally, we would have pushed Russia and China closer than ever as China will now have only one source for hydrocarbons. We will make that the single point of failure and step up our enforcement of “sanctions” in the high seas. How far do we now think Russia will fight back? Based on recent evidence, I don’t think too much. Now, assuming all this plays out, it seems like a trade for Rate earths for Oil with the gun loaded on our end across South East Asian bases pointed at them.
In this scenario, how do we think the markets will be reacting across this 8 month timeframe?
Well, there is plenty of evidence, including Acacia’s comment, only four up the thread, that makes me think we’re getting a heavy dose of propaganda on the whole “Iran’s defenses are wiped out” claim. But you did say “assume” for the sake of a thought exercise, so let’s go with it.
Attacking a large country like Iran, even with no Navy, Air Force, and Air defence depleted alone, won’t get you to the sort of maximalist goals that Taco has claimed. Just look at Ukraine – no navy (check), very little, if any air force, if you can consider the few remaining F16s that fly out of NATO countries like Romania or Poland as an air force, and not much air defence, either.
A real ground invasion would probably take six months to set up the logistics, train the troops, get equipment staged, etc. Think Desert Storm – Saddam invaded Kuwait in August, and it wasn’t until January that the real festivities kicked off.
I am not talking about special forces. Those could be sent in much more quickly, likely in that 4-5 week timeframe. But there is a high risk of failure. My guess is that when the bombing fails to achieve “regime change”, that is Team Epstein’s next move. If it fails, then we are into epic fail mode for Republicans in the mid-terms. Months of debate, markets tanking, and all sorts of horrible things in terms of dragging the public kicking and screaming to sacrifice thousands of young men and women for Israel.
You make a good point here.
But let’s change the parameters a bit since we are a Uniparty system where the overarching policy remains constant with variations in just the “Branding”, kind of like arguing about Coke vs. Pepsi when they both are harmful to a humans health.
Let’s extend out the timeline with the central premise about a spent powerless country being subdued bit by bit the same, if not in 8 months, in 2 years . It’s stomach churning to think about the cruelty that’s being inflicted due to imperial ambition, but it’s the reality of the last 4 years that’s finally slapping me awake.
Is there an alternate path that’s more probable than the above?
Imo this is assume a can opener.
Imo neither us or israel can continue defending themselves against Iran drones/missiles for 2 weeks, let alone 2 years. So fat Iran has not hit israel elect gen/desal plants, maybe thinking that would prompt nukes, but imo that would happen if they were going down.
Us can sail away its fleets, but Israel is stuck. And Hezbollah is distracting them now. Iran is taking hits, but they’ve got 10x israel pop.
The US would probably need millions of troops to even begin trying occupy Iran, a vast country of 90 million. And how would the US get all those troops into the country? Not to mention the logistics of maintaining such a large troop presence.
The IRGC alone has hundreds of thousands of troops, the Basij can potentially call up millions of volunteers. And their loyalty is to the Supreme Leader, not the government. This isn’t Iraq where they bribed the officer class to lay down arms prior to the invasion and afterwards found proxy forces willing to fight on the US side. And this isn’t Syria where the Sunni soldiers rebelled against a minority Alawite ruling elite that the US and Israel could exploit to weaken Assad. It seems the US would be hard pressed to find a sizeable proxy force within Iran to assist in any occupation.
Given the significance of Iran for (a) China’s OBOR project and (b) Russia’s border security, they must be already involved in this conflict, albeit indirectly. Would they just stand by while Iran was subjected to a ground invasion? Also, considering the size and population of Iran, what could boots on the ground realistically accomplish?
One of the known unknowns in this conflict concerns the actual military support that Iran has received from China and Russia. I believe we know that shipments of something were received, but we don’t know what, exactly.
Re: markets, I assume it largely depends on what happens with the cost of insuring ships, and Iran has already attacked four of them, I believe. Here, it’s worth bearing in mind that not only Iran but also the Houthis have said they plan to attack ships.
I commented in another post that AFAICT it took 6-8 weeks for oil markets to really react to the 1973 OPEC declaration of an embargo, but when they finally did, the price quadrupled.
Looking at the longer term.
Israel has strategically benefited from having a Jewish diaspora all around the world. And the diaspora has become influential in so many countries, like the US and the UK and Russia, as well as other smaller nations. I don’t think China has this, but they are fighting off a nascent zionist Christian movement.
The Jewish diaspora has not only wielded enormous influence in the west, but they are a readily available source of intelligence on what is really happening amongst the elites of western countries, because so many of them ARE the elites. Rothschilds and Adelsons spring to mind. No wonder Mossad has been so successful.
Assassinating the head of the Shia faith, Khamenei, was a huge blunder for the Israelis. Because the Shia also have a huge diaspora around the Arab world and probably also significant in the western world. And now Israel has gone a huge way to inciting more hatred and more significantly, a religious war. And Shias have a tradition of martyrdom. Maybe Khamenei’s death was his last strategic act.
The killing in Texas may be just a start. In Australia, there was a slaughter of jews in Sydney just before Christmas. Who knows who really planned this. But lone actors deciding to martyr themselves in response to the assassination of Khamenei might bring westerners, including western elites, to start to realise how precarious and uncivilised, and basically so unfair, it is to live in a world where god fearing folks and democratic liberals can be slaughtered at any time.
And this means, no matter whether the Iranis win or lose, there will still be an army of potential Shia martyrs spread across the globe.
Sabereen news infographic on Trump’s “plan” for Navy escorts + translation:
https://t.me/SabrenNewss/183992
This nonsense about cost is incessant; What’s the rate of replacement?
We can’t manufacture jack. “How much” doesn’t even matter when you need to replace it “now”. The same applies to these orphaned super tankers. What happens when they start going down? What’s the lead time to manufacturer another one? Does the owner much care if Trump promises to fully fund the replacement cost if you’re out of the oil shipping game for 5 years?
Trying to bring home the goods
What Satellite Images Show on Efforts to Destroy Iran’s Ballistic Missiles (NY Times via archive.ph)
The images get eaten by the archive process, but the text is all there and most of the images.
On Iran International as a source
Back in 2017 when Saudis were bad (not for starving bombing Yemen, but for killing a journalist the CIA liked), there was some media buzz about it being a Saudi funded and editorially directed venture
Concern over UK-based Iranian TV channel’s links to Saudi Arabia (Guardian)
A UK-based Iranian TV station is being funded through a secretive offshore entity and a company whose director is a Saudi Arabian businessman with close links to the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Guardian can reveal.
(In those days it used to show MEK rallies!)
So it’s definitely a Saudi intelligence operation.
Started in London, implying UK approval/spooky involvement and later moved to the US suggesting US/CIA involvement.
So a very well funded regime destabilisation propaganda outfit.
What’s interesting to me about that is that back in 2017 the Guardian was willing to call out that relationship. Five years later that would not have been the case. Whether that’s because of changes in the status/backing of Iran International or, as you suggest, changes in official attitudes to the Saudis I can’t say, but if I had to try I’d guess both.
Here’s a piece of the Craig Murray article I linked earlier; it maybe gives a sense of what they’re up to. It’s the only one of MI5’s alleged “Iranian terrorism plots” that ever resulted in a conviction.
Photographing their UK offices is a terrorism offense under UK law; I think the implication is clear and they aren’t just a Saudi operation.
Overton Management: Guardian voicing the options the UK citizens are allowed to contemplate.
First, Senior International Editor & voice of the establishment Julian Borger’s analysis of endgame scenarios.
Benign transition or bloody civil war: what next for Iran after the bombing?
All 4 scenarios assume Iran loses, and have no mention of the missile war. Different versions of how America wins.
1.The swift transition
This is the dream scenario of the US and Israeli leaders who launched the surprise attack on Saturday morning. Iran’s armed forces and the IRGC lay down their arms, as demanded by Trump, the various opposition factions coalesce and agree to form an interim government, perhaps under Reza Pahlavi
2. The Maduro model
3. The regime weathers the storm
[most similar to analysis seem often on NC and alt-media followed here]
The remnants of the regime would be encouraged that Trump had been talking about a limited campaign of four or so weeks. They could reasonably expect the US president would eventually declare victory and withdraw his “armada”, leaving Israel to keep up the bombing campaign with diminishing resources. [No exploration of what this looks like, just “America leaves”]
4. Civil war and chaos
In this scenario, regime forces are progressively and severely drained by weeks of bombing by the US and Israel, who are determined that the Islamic republic should not be left standing.
As postwar Iran frays at the borders, instability would spread along ethnic lines, or neighbouring states would seek to take advantage of Iran’s weakness. In the centre, Pahlavi’s followers would stake the monarchist claim to power, but would be disrupted by other opposition groups who have resisted the regime for decades and refuse to give up their vision of Iran’s future for returning exiles.
—–
All assume benign military outcomes for the US. None considers the effects on the rest of the region. None considers Israel nukes. None considers the very effing salient munitions issue the US has.
Amusingly, further down the same page is the article
“Middle East war could be decided by who runs out of missiles or interceptors first, analysts say”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/03/middle-east-war-decided-interceptors-missiles
“Benign transition” translated means: bomb them into chaos, controlled by a bunch of local warlords with foreign patrons. That’s “benign” … for Israel.
The West doesn’t do nation-building any more.
Leading is never asking whether a goal is even achievable
Exclusive: Defense executives plan to meet at White House as strikes on Iran diminish stockpiles (Reuters)
Is we learning yet?
Wouldn’t Seyed M Marandi at least half way expected false flags and have mentioned the possibility?
https://rumble.com/v76ihem-seyed-m-marandi-clip-all-out-war-and-further-escalation.html
Larry Johnson is very good with researching and working numbers. (Confession: I wouldn’t know; it’s not really in my skill set. But it is in my wife’s.) He does a fine job, here, exposing the lack of substance in US armaments claims, and just how well Iran is doing comparatively.
Remember: it isn’t about Iran being bombed into something resembling…well, Gaza. It’s about Iran keeping the nation alive, and the government functional, while the US and everybody’s favorite butcher, Israel, dropping everything they’ve got on Iran, to no avail:
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/the-us-missile-defense-shortage-is
IRGC announces full control of Strait of Hormuz
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/irgc-announces-full-control-of-strait-of-hormuz
“Any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz will burn,” Jabbari said, adding that “not one drop of oil will be allowed to leave the region.”
Richard Medhurst points out (Ref. Barbarossa) that militarily this campaign makes no sense, which would be true if logic and a proper sense of national security were in operation. But I think Richard isn’t looking at the true motivations of the Israeli regime, which has been increasingly fired by millenarian (“total transformation of society, often anticipating a 1,000-year “golden age” or kingdom”) and eschatological (“belief in “last things””) beliefs towards Eretz Israel Hashlema.
Bibi is a genocidal, short-term crook riding his wave of luck, but Trump is a stupid horse that needs to be led to the water and forced to drink – hence the headlines “Earthquake of 4.2 magnitude hits Israel’s Negev desert , triggers speculations online (https://www.wionews.com/world/earthquake-of-4-2-magnitude-hits-israel-s-negev-desert-triggers-speculations-online-1768492779617)” because of the alleged earthquake near Dimona, which may or may not have been Israel testing a nuclear warhead.
The first attack on Iran let Trump dip his toe in the water, and achieved nothing. The second attack, with a fully-armed US taskforce taking part, will allow Bibi to persuade Trump that no non-nuclear offensive against Iran will work in over-throwing the regime and getting rid of Iranian enrichment capacity (which Grandpa Shitpants declared destroyed back in 2025). The US can see Iranian hypersonics making nonsense of Israeli air-defence, and Bibi’s murderous decision to let all those Israeli deaths serve his purposes can be said to speak for itself.
Thus, Belsen Bibi will say with a snake-like gleam in his eye, as Iranian missiles rain down on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, “we have no option other than to use nuclear weapons…. it is a very sad thing (he will say, crocodile tears running down his face) and we would like US approval for this.” So then the question will be, how much of a resistance could/will Trump put up to the millenarian, combined AIPAC/Christian Nationalist/right-wing intelligence pressure to use nukes on Iran?
I think Richard uses a military analysis based on a level of progressive logic which is unknown to those desperate to use nuclear weapons on Iran, inside and outside Israel.
And if you want to know what happens, have a look at the massive British assistance to the Greek Megali Idea (much like Kahanist ideals of Eretz Israel Hashlema) in 1919, when Greece invaded mainland Turkey… then left rapidly after a horrible campaign of mass-murder.
The US: not agreement capable, not negotiation capable, and now apparently also not UN capable.
Mike Waltz, US envoy to the United Nations threatens the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations.
x.com/ME_Observer
Keepin’ it classy.