Iran War: Gaslighting Hits Epic Levels Over “Strait Completely Open” Fast Breakdown, Trump Smack Talk About Collecting Uranium as US Looks to Be Readying Massive Attack

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1. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 7:11 am

   Trump speaking at a Turning Point USA conference in Phoenix, Arizona saying how the US and Iran are going to go in together with lots of excavators to get that “uranium dust” and bring it home to the US-

   https://xcancel.com/clashreport/status/2045263910505157038

   The worse part is that the Turning Point audience cheered him when he said this which means that they actually believed everything that he said.
   1. Carolinian April 18, 2026 at 7:59 am

      I don’t personally know any hard core Trumpies but I am told that they are following him down the rabbit hole….for now.

      But per the above it sounds like Trump is “foaming the runway” for a stock market that would have already crashed by now. Unfortunately, unlike when Saint Obama did it, this plane is likely to come down a lot harder than the last one. Need more foam.

      At least when they finally cart Trump off to the looney bin he’ll still have his triumphal arch which has now been approved by a Trump appointed committee. Reports say it will be taller than the Lincoln Memorial in front of it and therefore visible when looking at the iconic Memorial. Take that Abe.
      1. Ignacio April 18, 2026 at 8:21 am

         Trump et al (Kushner, Witkoff etc.) do not care, save inasmuch as they can loot the system (https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/2045234341685387321) in the process. That is why Trump “cares about markets”. The Grand Strategy behind all this idiocy.
         1. ThirtyOne April 18, 2026 at 2:45 pm

            thebigstinker
            @theworststink
            20h
            Replying to @imetatronink
            Fool me once, shame on me.

            Fool me twice, I want in on whatever racket you have going there.

            https://nitter.poast.org/theworststink/status/2045269387033403796#m
      2. A Little Bird April 18, 2026 at 4:04 pm

         Shades of Ozzymandias
         1. eg April 18, 2026 at 10:18 pm

            “We’re going off the rails on a crazy train, Shelley!”
   2. Christopher Mann April 18, 2026 at 9:33 am

      I really wish Iran had nuclear ICBMs. At this stage, putting down the US would be a mercy killing. Kind of not kidding.
      1. Judge Barbier April 18, 2026 at 10:18 am

         The Americans seem poorly informed, but they are not alone. I think the Israelis are more culpable as a nation.

         Big thanks to Yves and Co. For all this work.
         1. JonnyJames April 18, 2026 at 12:00 pm

            The US is not as “culpable”? By accepting bribes from entrenched interest groups: BigOil, MICIMATT, BigFinance etc, BigPharma etc., including the Israel Lobby to do their bidding I hold US politicians as more “culpable”. Orange Caligula himself boasted at the Knesset how he accepted large bribes from Adelson and other Zionist oligarchs. IMO the bribe-takers who sell out the US public are more culpable, and they also engage in a form of treason.
            1. Expat2uruguay April 18, 2026 at 2:52 pm

               You blame the politicians. But what about the people? Living outside of the US I wonder how much blame falls on the shoulder of Americans themselves.

               When a country commits genocide, how can the people be innocent?

               The fact that the US democracy is failed is a failure of the population. I was arrested twice for protesting against citizens united. I fasted. I dropped banners.Nobody cared. So I left, I couldn’t live there anymore in the face of that. 10 years ago.

               So I really wonder, I really ask you all: to what degree are the American people themselves also responsible? And how will the “global South” view them/me?
               1. Copeland April 18, 2026 at 3:33 pm

                  I would guess about 48% responsible, and that’s more than enough.

                  We are so f**ked.
               2. JonnyJames April 18, 2026 at 3:35 pm

                  Yes, it’s both, and:, the public are at least partly to blame for believing the lies of the mass media MiniTrue and politicians, willful ignorance, and apathy.

                  Roughly half of the eligible voters in the US do so, the other half vote for the “lesser evil” as they are told.

                  But what if everyone boycotted the sham elections that offered no meaningful choice and no one voted for the candidates the mass media make them aware of?

                  George Carlin sums up your point. “The Public Sucks”

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrSAxtIYM08
                  1. Michael Fiorillo April 19, 2026 at 10:51 am

                     Or my Ecuadorian-born step-mother, who in her broken ESL-ese would assert, “So ugly the people!”
               3. chris April 18, 2026 at 4:43 pm

                  I appreciate that you tried and then voted with your feet. In theory, the entire polity is to blame for this. In practice, we’ve been denied the opportunity to vote on anything that mattered for years.

                  Most US citizens that I see are kept in a state of semi awake despair and financial debt. In a typical year I deal with people from all walks of life. I wasily visit 20 states each year. I talk to the poorest of the poor, the struggling middle class, the professionals, and incredibly wealthy families. The economic and social sorting has created a situation that I compare to people living on islands at various heights above sea level. Those who have the means now are capable of retreating to higher ground. Sooner or later the tide will be too high and they will discover their exits have been flooded. But until that time, they will sit and watch the others suffer. Because being on the right side of history means being on the wrong side of a career.

                  IMO, a family of 4 living on the US east coast with access to the Acela corridor needs an income of roughly 300k$ per year to live comfortably. That’s assuming no debt and the kids are capable of getting scholarships to college. Add debt and struggling kids, or God forbid a major health issue, and you’re more likely to need 500k$ per year to live comfortably.

                  Looking at our problems through that kind of lens, it becomes obvious to me that my country is mostly poor with significant infrastructure issues. As such, what is happening does not surprise me. It saddens me a great deal. But there is literally nothing I can do. The poor are always ignored in these matters. Wealthy people can supply their own infrastructure. The USA is not unique. These are the same challenges many third world countries have to manage.

                  Other than leave, I don’t have many options. But all my stuff is here. The people I love are here too. So I will keep voting and trying to make stuff better in my own little corner of the world.

                  I have zero expectations it will ever matter on a larger scale.
                  1. DD April 18, 2026 at 5:48 pm

                     I enjoyed Dignity and have purchased copies for friends. Glad to see you here under the radar.
                     1. Phil in the Blank April 19, 2026 at 8:21 am

                        I too recognize the writer. His mission and message earn my respect. His is an important voice.
               4. Pat April 18, 2026 at 5:03 pm

                  And I respect your choice. But, and I do think this is important, people before you fought and gave up, people after you did as well. And a whole lot of the rest of them have just spent most of their waking hours trying to keep a roof over their head and food on their tables. All of this in the face of massive corruption, overwhelming media consolidation done as much to control the narrative as the bribery and corruption of our politicians was. And that doesn’t even consider the concerted effort to debase our education so much that many of our young people aren’t just ignorant of what is going on here, they are essentially functionally illiterate.
                  There are small glimmers, when I at my most helpless I remind myself that someway somehow the majority of Americans actually have thrown off decades of programming and common knowledge and recognized that Israel has become their nightmare. That they are committed to the genocide of millions of people. Should it have happened sooner and should more be being done? Absolutely. But even getting this far is a seismic disruption of the narrative. Recognizing that we are the bullies and the invaders may take more, but the clear disgust at the suggestion that we could wipe out a civilization indicates we haven’t succumbed.
                  I can blame my fellow Americans for a lot, but I honestly cannot dump the entire population into the hazardous waste bin. They are in many ways abused children. And though it may be small and scared, they have not yet entirely rendered their conscious and essential humanity to the waste bin quite yet.
               5. Lefty Godot April 18, 2026 at 5:23 pm

                  The Lie Factories reign supreme in the USA. There is no “mainstream” news source that is not complete BS when it comes to foreign policy and the economy. And 90% or more of what the media publicizes on almost every subject are the same supposed “facts”; the 10% that they differ on are culture wars nonsense and partisan cheerleading, both of which are geared to get the believer swearing allegiance to “their” heroes and spitting with outrage at “them” (AKA “the bad guys”). This country has been a laboratory for Total Information Warfare on its citizenry by the elites.
               6. Carolinian April 18, 2026 at 5:56 pm

                  Ordinary people have jobs to go to and children to raise. When it comes to taking control of the powerful–let’s leave morality out of it–they are up against people whose ‘job’ is entirely focused on maintaining and enhancing that power.

                  And one must remember that this country was founded by people who were themselves the elite and none to eager to encourage “leveling.” Instead their focus was on getting rid of arbitrary power over them.

                  Their critique of power was valid but the government they created still gave a lot of it to a ruling class.
            2. Judge Barbier April 19, 2026 at 3:11 am

               The soft power of US UK IS is without peer. They completely control the narrative in their countries and those of their vassals. People who are busy trying to survive simply get their news from the mainstream media or Facebook/google feeds. They will never be objectively informed. Dumb they may be, but Americans are not wicked. On the other hand the pres in Israel is significantly more likely to be critical of it’s government than say in the UK. They are also better informed as a result.

               And they still support their government’s wars.
      2. ChrisPacific April 19, 2026 at 7:14 pm

         We went over all this in the 80s. People are forgetting.

         If anybody ever launched on the US, the US would launch its own arsenal (that’s what “mutually assured destruction” means). If Russia and China were targeted, they’d do the same. Then all wars would be over for the foreseeable future, and the task at hand for the next century or so would be the survival of the human race in some form.
      3. JohnnySacks April 20, 2026 at 11:02 am

         They may not have nuclear weapons, but they definitely have anti ship missiles capable of sinking our navy, hence the reason our navy keeps it’s distance. They’ve been buying Moskit Sunburns for decades. Not sure what they’ve picked up for air defense since. We assume they’re stupid and incompetent at our own peril, they’re simply holding back on using real weapons.
   3. JohnW April 18, 2026 at 10:01 am

      An old, mad, blind, despised, and dying King;
      Princes, the dregs of their dull race, who flow
      Through public scorn,—mud from a muddy spring;
      Rulers who neither see nor feel nor know,
      But leechlike to their fainting country cling
      Till they drop, blind in blood, without a blow.
      A people starved and stabbed in th’ untilled field;
      An army, whom liberticide and prey
      Makes as a two-edged sword to all who wield;
      Golden and sanguine laws which tempt and slay;
      Religion Christless, Godless—a book sealed;
      A senate, Time’s worst statute, unrepealed—
      Are graves from which a glorious Phantom may
      Burst, to illumine our tempestuous day.
      Shelley
      Written 200 yrs ago
      1. ISL April 18, 2026 at 12:32 pm

         It works on many levels (beyond the first line) with different reasons (lack of fertilizer) for untilled fields.

         https://interestingliterature.com/2020/08/percy-shelley-england-in-1819-analysis/
      2. NYT_Memes April 18, 2026 at 3:57 pm

         England in 1819, Percy Shelley

         Considering the differences in society today versus that time, in the physical world sense, quite appropriate for our accelerationist Trump, though there was no controlling power from afar in that distant time, as the tail wagging to dog today.
      3. eg April 18, 2026 at 10:31 pm

         It’s been over 40 years since I read that poem (I probably still have the textbook somewhere in my basement — can’t recall the title, but it’s a burgundy hardcover) but I immediately remembered that it was written in reaction to the Peterloo Massacre.
      4. Late Introvert April 19, 2026 at 12:03 am

         Thanks, NC commentariat FTW.
   4. jsn April 18, 2026 at 8:05 pm

      He’s got the same contractor building that arch that built Stonehenge for Spinal Tap.
2. tricksy hobbits April 18, 2026 at 7:17 am

   “ATHENS, April 18 (Reuters) – At least ​two merchant ‌vessels said they were ​hit by ​gunfire as they ⁠attempted ​to cross the ​Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, ​three ​maritime security and shipping ‌sources ⁠said”

   https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/merchant-vessels-report-gunfire-they-attempt-cross-hormuz-shipping-sources-say-2026-04-18/
3. hereweare April 18, 2026 at 7:43 am

   I find Marandi’s take the most plausible:
   Personally, I believe Trump is probably saying all this nonsense about agreements with Iran so that he can later claim, “Iran didn’t keep its promises” – promises Iran never made. The chances of renewed murderous aggression from Trump and Netanyahu are high.
4. Bob from Kansas April 18, 2026 at 7:56 am

   Coffee is for closers and war is for the weekends.

   This is all getting so stupid and frustrating, not only fro me, but even fro the pro-Trumpers I have coffee with five days a week. They just want the war to make sense and they no longer see the president as honest, they see him fro the lying salesman he is.

   But right now we are all mostly concerned with getting through tornado season.
   1. Acacia April 18, 2026 at 8:37 am

      This is all getting so stupid and frustrating

      Exactly. Most people are focused on their immediate concerns: food, gas, rent, survival. And fair enough.

      The shooting will likely resume soon. Iran’s strategy has been to go after the weakest links, i.e., the GCC and Israel. This makes sense, as these small countries begin shrieking in pain a lot more quickly than the US military.
   2. Peter Steckel April 18, 2026 at 9:01 am

      I know a few 3 x T voters and some are dyed in the wool Fox enthusiasts and believe we’re winning a righteous war, and some are absolutely livid at him dragging the rest of us into this war. One has basically said the only way forward is to retreat in to Fortress America, i.e. only operate in North and South America for at least 2-3 generations…
   3. .Tom April 18, 2026 at 10:12 am

      I don’t think we can expect the war to make sense if we try to integrate what the USA says and does into our picture. Trump will not delegate authority to handle it and foreclosed that possibility with his carefully-selected staff of cowardly halfwits. So everything has to go through the gibbering idiot at the center, someone who is simply unable to understand what’s going on. How can this arrangement produce outcomes that makes sense?
5. HH April 18, 2026 at 8:03 am

   I believe that Trump will keep attacking Iran until the Adelson IOU is fully paid. Israel’s strategy is simple: fight until every adversary is neutralized and lebensraum is attained. The problem for Israel is its full investment in only one geopolitical asset: the U.S. hegemon. When U.S. global dominance crumbles, Israel will face the consequences of its reckless conduct alone.
   1. Carolinian April 18, 2026 at 8:54 am

      The problem for Israel is that they don’t have enough people or army to fill all that lebensraum. What if they built a Nile to Euphrates Promised Land and not enough people came (some are leaving).

      Of course in Bibi world the main problem is him staying out of jail–apparently.
      1. John Wright April 18, 2026 at 11:49 am

         Also Israel needs to keep buffer zones from its hostile neighbors.

         But when the buffers zones are filled with new Israeli settlers, more buffer zones must be created to buffer the new settlers from angry neighbors.

         Longer term, this suggests a stretched IDF that must be supported by USA troops/armaments forever.

         The Biden “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in Israel may have some huge costs pushed on the precarious USA citizenry.
         1. Carolinian April 18, 2026 at 12:35 pm

            New settlers from where? Hasn’t anyone who wanted to settle there done so by now?
            1. NotTimothyGeithner April 18, 2026 at 1:43 pm

               This is part of what is going on in relation to the settlers and the Israeli perspective: the Israeli divide between Israeli-Jews and Israeli-Arabs.

               After the ’67, ’73 war, and even the 2000 Intifada, Jewish populations immigrated to Israel especially more right-wing types from the US. As you point out, everyone who is going to make that move has made that move.

               There were projections in the 00’s putting the Israeli-Arab and Palestinian population as the majority of Israel’s population by 2030. A two-state solution hasn’t made sense since the 60’s, so the inevitable consequence would be a reshaping of the Israeli state. Unlike the reparations arguments in the US, the Israeli-settler population did take steal the land from people with deeds versus being immigrants form places who probably hated the English. There isn’t a Jewish population left that wants to move there besides real outsiders like that guy from Brooklyn who made headlines a few years back who would move in and vote for a “conservative” element.

               There are 56 Israeli billionaires. Why is the subsidizing Israel then? This is the question the Israeli-Arabs and the leftier elements would have asked. Wealth inequality has become a real problem in Israel too. If Lebanon was humming along, Euro-types might start to ask questions about why Israel can’t do that?
               1. Carolinian April 18, 2026 at 2:57 pm

                  I forget what podcast I heard this on but it was said that the reason the Israelis periodically bomb Lebanon is that Lebanon is the more talented trading nation and Israel wants to suppress the competition.

                  One could argue that the real founders of Israel were the British who wanted to divide and conquer strategic locations. Over to you Winston.
                  1. Judge Barbier April 19, 2026 at 3:19 pm

                     I think that was Col. Wilkerson on Judge Nap.
   2. Paradox of Unrealized Power April 18, 2026 at 11:29 am

      I believe that Trump will keep attacking Iran until the Adelson IOU is fully paid.

      I read a lot of things along these lines, but Trump is notorious for reneging on promises and debts towards everyone–why is Adelson special?

      Methinks there is a stick somewhere as well as a carrot
      1. David in Friday Harbor April 18, 2026 at 12:48 pm

         I strongly suspect, based on good authority, that the “stick” is in the unreleased portions of the Epstein files and in the parts of the Epstein files that the FBI missed that the Epstein estate still controls.

         This “stick” has nothing to do with T putting his filthy fingers inside young women; it’s that Epstein had apparently documented hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars in back taxes and penalties that T should owe. If T doesn’t “play ball” he gets knee-capped financially.
         1. HH April 18, 2026 at 1:21 pm

            No sane person would have set up Epstein’s extensive IT infrastructure without data backup arrangements. The pretense that no backups existed is the most damning evidence of a government coverup. Whoever has those backup files has power over Trump.
            1. Matthew April 18, 2026 at 1:52 pm

               I’ve said this before, but if the Treasury Department had been doing its work–if white-collar crime were prosecuted–Trump would never have sniffed the presidency. But Trump may have been too small a slice of an enormous banking and Wall Street pie to even go after.

               I have a Panamanian friend who says that if you’re building internationally financed real estate you’re parking dictator and drug money. Do more knowledgeable people here think that’s the case?
               1. jrkrideau April 18, 2026 at 8:09 pm

                  Of course. Not all, of course, but a good proportion. See London UK.
      2. jonboinAR April 18, 2026 at 1:47 pm

         Paradox of Unrealized Power:
         I read a lot of things along these lines, but Trump is notorious for reneging on promises and debts towards everyone–why is Adelson special?

         Methinks there is a stick somewhere as well as a carrot
         ******************************************

         I imagine that both stick and carrot will continue to be applied as long as is deemed necessary.
   3. EY Oakland April 18, 2026 at 11:49 am

      Bibi has been courting Modi/India. I’m hoping Modi isn’t a Bibi soulmate, a bit worried that he is. Untrustworthy certainly, megalomaniac certainly.
      1. Matthew April 18, 2026 at 1:58 pm

         Well, and a fundamentalist whose most ardent followers prize supposed Aryan roots. There’s a lot to “Aryan” in radical Hindutva theory but the fundamentalist core is there.
      2. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 7:12 pm

         I suspect that Modi wants the technology & expertise that Israel uses to suppress the Palestinians and use it to suppress all those non-Hindus in India such as Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists, Christians, etc. Make the Hindus the top dog.
6. JMH April 18, 2026 at 8:07 am

   Is it a fact, a lie, a confabulation, a market pleasing word salad, utter nonsense, some other construct unknown to rational discourse? Are we to parse every word from DJT as if it were holy writ? If I recall correctly, it was John Mitchell who said early on in the Nixon administration, “Watch what we do, not what we say.” Good advice. Even better advice when dealing with DJT, who is lost in his own reality. I believe nothing that he says. Follow the “Mitchell rule.”
   1. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 8:35 am

      Perhaps you are getting close with “holy writ”. I think it’s a plausible hypothesis that “Word of Faith” thinking in DJT’s circle (Paul White, I think) could be responsible. If so, we are up sh!t strait without a paddle.
      1. dave -- just dave April 18, 2026 at 1:25 pm

         You are thinking of Paula White, Senior Advisor to the White House Faith Office

         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paula_White-Cain
   2. JonnyJames April 18, 2026 at 11:38 am

      I have heard more than one expert analyst say they don’t even pay attention to the rantings of the unhinged Orange Jesus. Probably a year or more ago, I recall Andrei Martyanov, in his animated style, saying that the pres just spouts “gibberish” and he was a New York real-estate shyster who cannot be believed. That has been obvious for many years, but now he is clearly suffering from mental illness. The emperor has lost his marbles syndrome

      It is mind-boggling to see not only sycophants, but many “journalists” in the mass media fawn over his every word as if it was holy writ. He is infallible and wants to replace the Pontiff, and then we have the now infamous Jesus images.
      1. lyman alpha blob April 18, 2026 at 12:12 pm

         It really is quite something to witness the media coverage, especially in contrast to the coverage of Obama. After the first few years, I remember that sometimes days would go by with barely a mention of his name in the news. Whatever might have been happening, Obama wasn’t considered the driving force.

         The liberals got what they wanted with Biden in 2020. If they could have managed to simply ignore the man who was no longer president after that, he wouldn’t be in the Oval Office a 2nd time now. If he really is such an atrocity, and I think he has been in his 2nd term, you really have to wonder why the 3rd branch and the media made sure he remained in the public eye while out of office every single day.

         So, yes, it’s important to keep our eyes on the ball and not be too distracted by Trump’s increasingly demented reality show presidency. Trump and his company of charlatans may be profiting bigly from all this, but there are revanchist deep state factions who’ve wanted to knock out Iran for two generations now, and none of this would be happening without the OK of those courtesans and the oligarchs who paid for the politicians.
         1. jsn April 18, 2026 at 8:20 pm

            Since 2010 the system has been a Political Market, no longer a Republic.

            It’s doing exactly what it was designed to do.

            “The love of money is the root of all evil.”
   3. Cat Burglar April 18, 2026 at 1:11 pm

      Blockading the strait is opening it. No negotiations is negotiating. Iran cannot blackmail us because Iran is blackmailing us. The ten-points are a reasonable basis for negotiations we are not negotiating on.

      War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength.
   4. AndrewJ April 18, 2026 at 3:21 pm

      Dude’s got frontotemporal dementia. He’s not in the same reality as us any more.
7. Safety First April 18, 2026 at 8:22 am

   Aaaand…the Strait is closed again.

   https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/31139#

   Full statement by Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiyaa Headquarters:

   ‘Unfortunately, the Americans, with their repeated record of breaching promises, continue to engage in piracy and banditry under the guise of a so-called blockade.

   For this reason, control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state and this strategic waterway remains under the strict management and control of the armed forces.

   As long as the United States does not enable the complete freedom of movement of vessels from Iran to its destination and from its destination to Iran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain strictly controlled and in its previous state.’

   From other posts, seems the USN turned back an Iranian ship that had transited the Strait…so the Iranians turned back two Indian ships (firing warning shots at one of them), and made the announcement above.

   Parenthetically, how many times now have we seen “good news” announced Friday-ish, causing oil futures to nosedive, only for “bad news” to snap the market back Monday-Tuesday-ish?
   1. tegnost April 18, 2026 at 10:24 am

      To your parentheses, and every day another 135 ships do not pass through the strait.
      It’s mind boggling.
      1. tegnost April 18, 2026 at 10:45 am

         current example of the mediocrity passing as “news” from the Seattle Times…
         I’m not even going to look at it as the headline does not inspire confidence
         “Traffic and trepidation in the Persian Gulf could keep gas prices from dropping quickly”

         SMH
8. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 8:29 am

   ‘France and the U.K. will lead a multinational mission to protect freedom of passage as soon as conditions allow’

   What’s the point? Seriously. What is the point? What are they going to do? Have naval ships escort each and every ship in and out of the Gulf? They could only do so at the tolerance of the Iranians. And it is not like the west has that many naval ships to spare for such a grueling routine. The only thing that makes sense is that those ships will need naval bases for those ships so would be a great excuse to establish even more military installations in this region to threaten Iran with.
   1. Oregon Lawhobbit April 18, 2026 at 9:26 am

      To be fair, I’m an Army guy, not a Navy guy, but I’m with you on the “what’s the point?” question. I’m not aware of Navy ships having any magical powers to prevent attacks, so maybe they’re supposed to expend munitions defending the escorted vessels? But that just puts us back in spending millions to intercept cheap drones…

      “Tripwires” … maybe? Hoping that Iran wouldn’t want to risk war with NATO as well as the US?
   2. Paradox of Unrealized Power April 18, 2026 at 11:39 am

      They are trying to shut the US up and have some “leverage” in future negotiations with the US, however minor

      That’s it
      1. ISL April 18, 2026 at 12:41 pm

         If they were not morons, then they would tell Trump we are on the way, but having trouble with stocking the ships with munitions – some of which are not coming from the US, and then repeat in fifteen minutes after Trump forgets.

         I guess they have servants for the normal family rituals…

         Honey, can you take out the trash..
         Yes, dear, I am taking care of it…
         Honey, did you take out the trash?
         Yes, dear, I am doing it now…
         Honey, why is the trash not out?
         Yes dear….
   3. vao April 18, 2026 at 1:02 pm

      “The only thing that makes sense is that those ships will need naval bases for those ships so would be a great excuse to establish even more military installations in this region to threaten Iran with.”

      The already have them:

      France has a naval air station in Abu Dhabi.

      The UK has a naval base in Bahrain and a logistical navy base in Oman (just on the other side of the Strait). The RAF also uses an Omani air base, and an air base in the UAE.
9. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 8:31 am

   This is going to sound a bit woo-woo, but Paul White is, per internet search, a proponent of a set of concepts called “Word of Faith” teaching.

   As I understand this (and thankfully I don’t understand it well), WoF holds that christians have authority to create realities by speaking them into existence (in analogy to God creating the world — the Genesis 1 “God said, … , and it was so”).

   White is one of DJT’s advisors, I think, on religious matters.

   Perhaps these counterfactual statements that portray the Iran situation as being in the state DJT would prefer it to be rather than the state that it actually is are related to “Word of Faith” thinking among some people among his “advisors”?
   1. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 8:40 am

      I’ll add that “Word of Faith” thinking is really pernicious and destructive.; it interferes with realistic solution to problems. I knew someone who sincerely believed this and she was very antagonistic to my attempts to facilitate medical care for her gravely ill husband. She seemed to believe that if a doctor made a diagnosis, the doctor’s words would cause the condition. Her preferred course of action was to palliate symptoms and continually chant a mantra, “no one in this house is sick.”

      DJT is (per Robert Barnes, in a recent Larry Johnson podcast) not being told how bad things really are and is declaring things that are not only not true, but not conceivably true in any realistically possible future. It may not be Word of Faith, but I think it resembles it.
      1. hk April 18, 2026 at 11:18 am

         Not to mention utter blasphemy. So we are God now, creating realities to our liking at the drop of our word?
         1. JonnyJames April 18, 2026 at 11:46 am

            Blasphemy, and “self-idolatry” according to the Pontiff. Idolatry is one thing, but self-idolatry sounds about right. The emperor fancies himself a god.
            https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pope-leo-offers-latest-rebuke-iran-war/
         2. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 12:31 pm

            I haven’t dug deeply into the way WoF proponents justify their beliefs, but it is not hard to imagine that texts like Psalm 82:6 (“I have said, ‘you are gods’ “) combined with approaches to interpretation that encourage personalization of the text, could play a role.
      2. jonboinAR April 18, 2026 at 1:59 pm

         Samuel Conner
         April 18, 2026 at 8:40 am:
         DJT is (per Robert Barnes, in a recent Larry Johnson podcast) not being told how bad things really are and is declaring things that are not only not true, but not conceivably true in any realistically possible future.
         ************************************************

         All of which leads historically to terrible outcomes, am I right? In our nuclear age that would be magnified, a lot. That’s why I say, providing what Robert Barnes has asserted is indeed so, those who are in a position to, should really, actually be considering and planning Article 25 proceedings.
   2. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 8:57 am

      There was a book that came out several years ago and proved to be popular though the name of it escapes me at the moment. It’s central idea was that if you wished for something hard enough, that it would come into your life like magic. This “Word of Faith” teaching seems to be along the same lines but with a religious spin on it.
      1. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 9:02 am

         Might that have been “the prayer of Jabez”? I think that was really popular, even among some politicians.
         1. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 9:07 am

            Thanks, but no. It had a more catchy title and its central idea sounded like something that would appeal to affluent people.
            1. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 9:24 am

               There was a popular book called “The Secret”, sort of a secular version of Word of Faith.

               Here is a trustworthy saying: “It is easier to get what you want by writing books about how to get what you want than by reading them.”
               1. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 9:29 am

                  Bingo! That was the name of that book. Thanks for finding it. It is older than I thought as it came out in 2006-

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Secret_(Byrne_book)
                  1. Keith Newman April 18, 2026 at 12:42 pm

                     Re “The Secret”:
                     Twenty years ago I worked with a woman every day who totally bought in to the ideas of The Secret. It was an important part of her life. She was an otherwise intelligent and rational person. I found it disturbing and difficult to deal with. I just responded that I found it unconvincing.
                     Some commenters have related personal anecdotes of otherwise rational people they know who see the current round of the US-Iran war as being the fulfillment of the biblical prophecy of the world-ending battle of Armaggeddon.
                     I find these beliefs by apparently sane people very disturbing. What does it say about their grasp of reality?
                  2. RA April 18, 2026 at 3:08 pm

                     I think I recall Oprah bought into “The Secret” and promoted it with her popular TV presence.

                     Oh, and I think it is Paula White not Paul.
                  3. Henry Moon Pie April 18, 2026 at 6:52 pm

                     Byrne is another Gnostic, like Maryanne Williamson. The core idea is that reality is a product of our thoughts. Control your thoughts, and you control reality.

                     It’s a religion for those with a high level of hubris.
                     1. anahuna April 19, 2026 at 8:40 am

                        Is this really so different from what is regularly practiced in sports? In sport, where there are rules and measures, it often works. Think of Djokovic’s victories, predicated on what is described as self-belief and “mental strength”. But long before that, we have the Zen story of Onami.

                        Zen Koans
                        8. Great Waves
                        [ Zen Koans Index | Site Home ]
                        8. Great Waves
                        In the early days of the Meiji era there lived a well-known wrestler called O-nami, Great Waves.

                        O-nami was immensely strong and knew the art of wrestling. In his private bouts he defeated even his teacher, but in public he was so bashful that his own pupils threw him.

                        O-nami felt he should go to a Zen master for help. Hakuju, a wandering teacher, was stopping in a little temple nearby, so O-nami went to see him and told him of his trouble.

                        “Great Waves is your name,” the teacher advised, “so stay in this temple tonight. Imagine that you are those billows. You are no longer a wrestler who is afraid. You are those huge waves sweeping everything before them, swallowing all in their path. Do this and you will be the greatest wrestler in the land.”

                        The teacher retired. O-nami sat in meditation trying to imagine himself as waves. He thought of many different things. Then gradually he turned more and more to the feeling of the waves. As the night advanced the waves became larger and larger. They swept away the flowers in their vases. Even the Buddha in the shrine was inundated. Before dawn the temple was nothing but the ebb and flow of an immense sea.

                        In the morning the teacher found O-nami meditating, a faint smile on his face. He patted the wrestler’s shoulder. “Now nothing can disturb you,” he said. “You are those waves. You will sweep everything before you.”

                        The same day O-nami entered the wrestling contests and won. After that, no one in Japan was able to defeat him.
               2. DFWCom April 18, 2026 at 10:28 am

                  As I get older and contemplate the mess we make of the world, I am increasingly open to the idea of Divine Mystey. That said, my own experience suggests that we tend to get what we need not what we want. It is not a minor difference. As to what America needs – a corrupted, financialized oligopoly that has forgotten how to build or even live – and worships at the alter of war and death, I recall what Alaric said to the Romans after sacking their city, “But what will you leave us”? His contemptuous reply, “Your lives”.
            2. EnigmaWrappedInBacon April 18, 2026 at 9:28 am

               Are you thinking of The Secret, written by Rhonda Byrne? It promoted the idea of a “Law of Attraction.”
            3. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 9:40 am

               > something that would appeal to affluent people.

               riffing on Enigma…’s mention of the premise of “The Secret,” the thought occurs that money does tend to attract (or at least facilitate — something also noticed by the ancients, for example in Ecclesiastes 10:19) preferred outcomes, even if thoughts do not.
         2. Silo Man April 18, 2026 at 9:55 am

            In an effort to bring some humorous satire to this nonsense, Family Guy- stay with me – had an episode on Wish It, Want It Do It, which did a nice job of illustrating the theme….
            https://www.reddit.com/r/familyguy/comments/1j0qz6q/no_matter_how_many_times_i_watch_this_scene_it/

            Unbelievably, Amazon also has the “book” – based on the Family Guy episode – with large print and blank pages.
            https://www.amazon.com/Wish-Want-Do/dp/1483998584
      2. hereweare April 18, 2026 at 9:11 am

         The less religious call it manifesting, though that may not be in the name of the book you have in mind. Apparently it’s quite a thing with gen Z, on Tik-Tok, and so on.
         1. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 9:17 am

            An earlier generation would say that people claiming that they have god like powers to create reality is actually blasphemy. But what did they know?
            1. EnigmaWrappedInBacon April 18, 2026 at 9:29 am

               Are you thinking of The Secret, written by Rhonda Byrne? It promoted the idea of a “Law of Attraction.”
            2. Quintian and Lucius April 18, 2026 at 9:50 am

               In many respects America’s original sin is the messianic cult of the personal, the conviction that will alone may overcome, and if you don’t look too closely the history of America’s founding, expansion, and imperium could be interpreted as demonstrating the power of will. I’d rather suggest those achievements should be attributed to geography/bacteria/geography again but it is perhaps the defining trait of American messianic that he understands the fruits of his overwhelming privilege as springing from his singular virtues.
         2. JP April 18, 2026 at 10:04 am

            Actually it is an attempt at sorcery. Sorcery is driven by will power I don’t think your average christian would be wisher to existence has the training or background to convince anyone but themselves or in Trump’s case the market.
            1. JP April 18, 2026 at 10:41 am

               As Rev says above it was frowned upon. They burned witches didn’t they.
               1. Skip Intro April 18, 2026 at 12:07 pm

                  Not the real witches!
      3. Chas April 18, 2026 at 9:21 am

         Sounds like you’re talking about the Bible.
      4. Gretzen April 18, 2026 at 9:43 am

         To be fair, it is the New Testament that claims that faith a small as a mustard seed will totally warp reality and move mountains.

         As well as that the holy Christians will work miracles greater than that of Jesus, that they will sit in judgement even over angels, hell, they are literally called gods once!!

         This kind of narcisistic, megalomaniacal magical thinking was baked into christian mainstream from day one.

         It was downplayed and rationalized because obviously the fantastic claims never matched reality, but it was Always there waiting to be re-activated by the right crazies and hysterics.

         Certainly it is wrong to pretend this kind of thinking is just some foreign, later distortion imported into the religion.

         Mainstream Christianity always likes to blame other religions it violently exterminated ages ago or long dead and forgotten “heresies” whenever someone drills into it’s own vast and ancient reservoir of crazy.
         1. hk April 18, 2026 at 11:29 am

            One might say that the idea of god itself reflects this: god exists to do the impossible. I do think that, though, the crazy thinking is reserved for a special kind of fanatics: we own God; God works for us; we’ll order God to obey us.

            Abe Lincoln on his second inaugural these people are not:

            Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the bondsman’s two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword as was said three thousand years ago so still it must be said ‘the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether
         2. Sibiriak April 18, 2026 at 11:41 am

            Gretzen: Mainstream Christianity always likes to blame other religions it violently exterminated ages ago or long dead and forgotten “heresies” whenever someone drills into it’s own vast and ancient reservoir of crazy.

            That’s an insightful observation. It reminds me of the late British author Richard Webster.

            Excerpt from “The Dark Mirror of Isam” (1990):
            

            […] The most significant revolution which has taken place in Christian doctrine over the past three centuries has been in relation to eschatology. The drama of the Last Judgment, which stands at the imaginative heart of the historical Christian faith, is now rarely alluded to by Christian preachers; the terms ‘hell’ and ‘sin’ are seldom uttered in Christian pulpits and even the notion of God’s ‘wrath’, which once thundered through Paul’s letters, has, by a process of theologically rationalised mistranslation, mysteriously disappeared from the New English Bible.

            One of the results of this concerted flight from eschatology – and in particular from the doctrine of hell – is that Christianity now seems a much kinder, more generous and more reasonable religion than it once was. And we should not, perhaps, complain about that.

            But there is another result which is far more worrying. It would seem that the more we have succeeded in emptying our own religious tradition of the cruelty and intolerance which characterised it throughout much of our history, the more we have destroyed our understanding of the historical process itself.

            Unable to come to terms with the violence of our own religious heritage, we have increasingly come to perceive the violence of other religious traditions as strange, alien, or even evil. In other words, Islam has become, as Judaism once was, a dark mirror in which we see and persecute the reflection of our own unacknowledged past.

            It is time that we laid down that mirror and contemplated our own history more directly. If we could but bring ourselves to look carefully into the empty sockets of the scarred, gouged-out face which is the history of twentieth-century Europe, we might begin to recognise that cruelty, torture and terror are by no means alien to our own culture.

            We might understand that the very forms of modern political totalitarianism which we have been taught to revile stand in an uncomfortably close relationship to a religious tradition which is still generally revered. We might even begin to develop a deeper insight into the nature of fundamentalism.
            1. Alex Cox April 18, 2026 at 12:35 pm

               In Mark’s gospel – said to be the earliest – there is no mention of hell. All the gnashing of teeth, so deplored by Bertrand Russell, was introduced by Matthew and the later gospellers.

               It’s speculated that when the early Xtians realised Jesus wasn’t coming back in their lifetimes, they rejigged the doctrine to include hell, scare the pagans and get them on board.
               1. Henry Moon Pie April 18, 2026 at 6:41 pm

                  Marcan priority is the prevailing view. One reason is that it’s shorter. Biblical critics take the common sense view that stuff tends to get added to a tradition, not subtracted unless it’s something embarrassing, anachronistic, heretical. Also, good arguments can be made about how Matthew or Luke take something from Mark and adapt it for their own purposes. (John is an outlier.)

                  Mark originally contained no post-resurrection appearances of Jesus. When Mary Magdalene and two other women came to anoint Jesus’s body on Sunday, they found the tomb empty. A young man (an angel?), sitting in the tomb, explains that Jesus is risen. The women run away frightened, and tell no one. That’s how Mark originally ended according to the oldest manuscripts.

                  There is no concept of “hell” in the Hebrew bible. Instead, there is Sheol where the dead reside regardless of faith or behavior during their lifetimes. There is no punishment or reward. In the Greek bible, there are references instead to Gehenna, a specific ravine outside Jerusalem with a history of child sacrifice (to Moloch) and a subsequent cursing of the place as the depository for dead animals and criminals whose bodies were burned for the sake of public health. While the Apostles’ Creed includes the declaration that “He [Jesus] descended into hell,” the only biblical backing for that claim is from 1 Peter 3, and that passage does not use the word “Gehenna” or “hell.”
                  1. JP April 18, 2026 at 8:54 pm

                     That’s great. We are still in the throws of Hittite/Hebrew rivalry. Christianity was pretty much oral history for 300 years. Then came the bible that is now accepted as true gospel. It makes quotations of Jesus and interpretations of his life and teachings just dubious. Everyone who had direct experience was long dead, and just how enlightened were the various disciples?

                     It’s like trying to reconstruct the vision you experienced on 300 micrograms one week later. You can’t get there from here.
                  2. Huey April 18, 2026 at 9:55 pm

                     Thanks so much for this Henry. I really appreciate your breakdowns.

                     Do you have any recommended reading for more about this/the origin of Christianity as whole?
                     1. Henry Moon Pie April 19, 2026 at 8:13 am

                        My old Ph.D advisor, John Collins, professor emeritus at Yale Divinity School, has a book intended as an undergraduate text entitled A Short Introduction to the Hebrew Bible that’s now in its 4th edition. While only covering the Hebrew bible, it introduces the reader to the techniques of modern biblical criticism and interpretation.

                        Re: Mark and the Greek bible, Adela Yarbro Collins, spouse of John and also a professor emeritus at Yale Divinity, wrote the Hermeneia series commentary on Mark. (John wrote the Hermeneia commentary on Daniel.) Adela was also a member of the Jesus Seminar.

                        Both John and Adela were teachers of mine when they were at the University of Chicago Divinity School. They’re practicing Catholics. They’re also really nice people.
                        1. Huey April 19, 2026 at 10:47 am

                           Many thanks! Fortresspress seems to be down at the moment, but I’ll look these up to add to my collection. I am going to need an actual bookshelf, at the rate of accumulation on my coffee table.
         3. Henry Moon Pie April 18, 2026 at 7:02 pm

            The original move in that direction was to postulate a distinctly human figure, modeled on an ancient Near Eastern tyrant, as God of the Universe.
   3. Chet G April 18, 2026 at 9:31 am

      I believe that “word of faith” transcends religions. Nearly sixty years ago, in Manhattan, I had met a young woman who led a faith of some kind or another group. The group met in her apartment and chanted repeatedly one line – Indian or oriental? – whose point was, in effect, modern consumerism. During a break from chanting, individuals would talk about the luck each had in buying something for less money.
      The concept of words as power goes way back. Consider the fairy tale “Rumpelstiltskin” in which knowing the name of the dwarf to be Rumpelstiltskin releases those from his power.
      1. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 9:44 am

         Well said.

         It is disconcerting to think that advisors with direct access to the President embrace this way of thinking about the world.
      2. You're soaking in it? April 18, 2026 at 10:03 am

         I was thinking that Trump wishes he could become a real boy, if he only proves himself worthy. Unfortunately, he is constantly leading the US to Donkey Island.
      3. Michael Fiorillo April 18, 2026 at 10:06 am

         Could it have been, “Nam Ho Renge Kyo?”

         I recall that from back in the day as overlapping faux spirituality with acquisitiveness…
         1. caucus99percenter April 18, 2026 at 10:42 am

            In the U.S., the Nichiren Shoshu denomination of Buddhism.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namu_My%C5%8Dh%C5%8D_Renge_Ky%C5%8D
            1. Michael Fiorillo April 18, 2026 at 1:40 pm

               Yes, to me it always came across as an Orientalist Gospel of Prosperity for New Age types who enjoyed the cachet of saying, “I’m a Buddhist.”
         2. Chet G April 18, 2026 at 11:36 am

            Thank you! I believe that was the line being chanted.
            Probably the only actual result was those chanters ending up with sore throats.
      4. Marti61 April 18, 2026 at 12:34 pm

         Rumpled stilt skin being another word for flaccid penis
      5. JP April 18, 2026 at 3:36 pm

         The hermetic tree of life culminates in wisdom just under wisdom are two branches, knowledge and understanding. My take on faith is that it reflects understanding without knowledge. Faith is not belief. Chanting to my thinking would be an exercise in belief.
      6. John Steinbach April 18, 2026 at 8:16 pm

         Na MyohoTenge Kio- the Nuchiren Shosho sect chants the line about cause &effect to make wishes come true. The other Nichiren sects consider them heretical.
10. JohnH April 18, 2026 at 8:55 am

    “your humble blogger… is now in the war zone, as in Dubai”

    What the hell are you doing there?

    Be safe.
    1. Yves Smith Post authorApril 18, 2026 at 10:54 am

       Iran is not bombing airports, even Ben Gurion which is partly for military use, unlike Dubai.

       They want the locals to leave :-)
11. Oregon Lawhobbit April 18, 2026 at 8:58 am

    Glad to see the last sentence, “I have stopped now because my plane is boarding. See you soon!”

    While we certainly appreciate the dedication and work you put in, I think I can safely say that no one here wants to see you posting Personally Obtained Video of incoming fire.

    Keep being safe and luck to you on your bank dealings!
    1. Laughingsong April 18, 2026 at 3:23 pm

       Yes, Yves! Such dedication…stay safe and as for Citi, give ‘em hell!

       This is such an amazing site, the best info, commentary, and it’s been consistent for a couple of decades now!
       1. jsn April 18, 2026 at 8:37 pm

          The Citi Branch Visit of Living Dangerously!
12. Howard L April 18, 2026 at 9:03 am

    Iran has effectively closed the SOH and also opened fire on a tanker today.

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/18/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel
    1. johnnyme April 18, 2026 at 9:24 am

       More details:

       2 Indian ships ‘forced back’ from Hormuz Strait: Tracker data

       The report is based on two Channel 16 (VHF 156.8 MHz) recordings — the international maritime distress and calling channel — TankerTrackers said on the US social media company X.

       “Firing was involved. One of the vessels is an Indian-flagged VLCC supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil,” it added.
    2. johnnyme April 18, 2026 at 9:56 am

       Another incident reported today. This time a cruise ship:

       UKMTO WARNING 039-26 – SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY Report Date:18 Apr 2026 Report Time:1208UTC Issue Date:18 Apr 2026 Source: Master UKMTO has received a report of an incident 3NM east of OMAN. The Master of a Cruise ship reported sighting a splash in close proximity of the vessel. Vessels are advised to report suspicious activity to UKMTO.
       1. Don April 18, 2026 at 12:25 pm

          A cruise ship?
          1. Karen April 18, 2026 at 5:16 pm

             Yeah kinda like the first Battle Of Bull Run.
             1. jrkrideau April 18, 2026 at 8:30 pm

                Thank heavens I did not have a drink in my hand.
    3. Cocomaan April 18, 2026 at 9:57 am

       “Never again closed” lasted twenty four hours
13. johnnyme April 18, 2026 at 9:06 am

    Two incidents in the Gulf of Oman today have been reported by the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center:

    UKMTO WARNING 038-26 – ATTACK Report Date:18 Apr 2026 Report Time:1125UTC Issue Date:18 Apr 2026 Source: Company Security Officer UKMTO has received a report of an incident 25NM northeast of OMAN. A report of a Container Ship being hit by an unknown projectile which caused damage to some of the containers, no fires or environment impact reported. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to report suspicious activity to UKMTO.

    UKMTO WARNING 037-26 – ATTACK Report Date:18 Apr 2026 Report Time: 0920UTC Issue Date:18 Apr 2026 Source: Master UKMTO has received a report of an incident 20NM northeast of OMAN. The Master of a Tanker reports being approached by 2 IRGC gun boats, no VHF challenge that then fired upon the tanker. Tanker and crew are reported safe. Authorities are investigating.
    1. TimH April 18, 2026 at 9:25 am

       Authorities are investigating.

       Which?
14. .Tom April 18, 2026 at 9:18 am

    I did an image search using the keywords: pig wrestling. Some excellent photos came up (really! try it yourself) confirming the truism that Yves included: the pig wins in every round of every fight(*). This is an excellent way to conceptualize whats going on with the flow of information at the moment.

    Let’s postulate that Trump cannot understand what’s going on. I think this is fair. Even a first order approximate understanding of Lebanon is not possessed by, at appears, most journos and pundits who involve themselves in the topic. And that’s just one of, how many is it?, thirteen nations primarily involved. So what chance has Trump of understanding the multidimensional constraints on his route out of this epic furious mess? None, I believe. Literally none. So he cannot meaningfully talk about it, anticipate responses of other actors, or make decisions affecting it. His oinks and squeals on Truth Social and speaking to media are just noises representing his confusion.

    Add to this that a) he is surrounded by cowardly idiot sycophants and that b) he is constitutionally unable to delegate authority. Whenever his representatives make progress on something, he reverses it.

    If this picture is about right then there is nothing there. No meanings. Nothing to understand or interpret. No coherent dispositions or intentionality. Insufficient temporal regularity to interact with. This pig will always escape your grip no matter how you approach it. But given how things have been arranged you don’t have the option to walk away. Wrestling this pig is the only way to engage.

    This pig wresting analogy reminds me of something I think Matt Taibbi observed during the Trump 45 era, also involving wrangling pig skins. He observed how many people thought they could pick up Trump like an American football and run him into the end zone for a glorious touch down. None could keep their grip on him and they all fell.

    (*) Judging from the photos I’m not sure the pigs always enjoy it. Some probably get frightened.
    1. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 7:24 pm

       It has been advised that in politics, one should not indulge in pig wrestling. You get muddy & covered in crap while the pig enjoys it.
15. JohnnyGL April 18, 2026 at 9:32 am

    This was rather curious, Ghalibaf ‘clarifying’ his statement at 2am local time? IRGC issuing a stern rebuke?

    https://nitter.poast.org/pati_marins64/status/2045478737622311416#m

    Larry Johnson seems pretty convinced that the CIA/Mossad had a mole deep inside the Iranian leadership, General Qaani, who was (maybe) quietly executed shortly after the war began. Suspicions mounted when ducked out of several big leadership meetings that got struck by the US/Israelis, including the one killing the Ayatollah and a lot of other top Iranian officials.

    With Araghchi and Ghalibaf playing along with Trump’s nutty claims until after markets closed, one has to wonder if this is beyond internal disagreements within the Iranian leadership and crosses into treachery?
    1. Polar Socialist April 18, 2026 at 10:09 am

       Or maybe Iranians want to make sure that when the crash comes, US will not recover for decades?

       “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” or “give a fool enough rope and he will hang himself” are at least plausible explanations, for now.

       When the [familyblog] storm really hits the international economy, I gather Iran, China, North Korea and Russia can weather it better than the rest of us.
    2. pjay April 18, 2026 at 11:24 am

       Conor posted this in today’s Links from bne IntelliNews: “Iran hardliners attack Araghchi’s Hormuz tweet as ‘incomplete and misleading'”

       https://www.intellinews.com/iran-hardliners-attack-araghchi-s-hormuz-tweet-as-incomplete-and-misleading-438010/?source=iran

       It’s a pro-Western source, but it reinforces what you say. I’ve been among those defending Araghchi and Iran’s agreement to meet in Islamabad. But it does seem that his public statement gave Trump an opening for his usual bulls**t and contributed greatly to the confusion Yves describes here. One thing we definitely don’t need is another source of confusion and ambiguity. Based on the news stories noted by commenters here, it sounds like Iran has become less ambiguous over the last few hours.
    3. curlydan April 18, 2026 at 11:43 am

       Why wouldn’t the US/Israel try to turn one of the top Iranian leaders/spokepeople to their side? If the US promised one of these leaders that they could lead Iran post-war, it certainly would sound tempting–like promising an aspiring VP at a corporation the CEO role if he goes along with a leveraged buyout.

       Iran needs some hardcore ideological firmness, but that’s got to be hard when Iranian communication is hampered by a decentralized system needed to evade bombing/assassination attempts by US/Israel.

       Iranian negotiators would need a “no sidebar” rule in negotiations in Pakistan with the US. Taking such a big delegation makes that difficult. Tempted by the fruit of another…
    4. Mcsnoot April 18, 2026 at 3:15 pm

       Is there internal disagreement/conflict/misalignment between the Iranian reformist like araghchi and ghalibaf and the hardliners like the irgc?
       1. Polar Socialist April 18, 2026 at 4:15 pm

          This will be somewhat complicated and I’m not certainly sure I got this totally right, but…

          In the Iranian landscape of political factions Ghalibaf and Araghchi are Conservatives (a.k.a. Theocratic Right) and both are IRGC alumni (30 and 10 years, respectively). Seemingly they are from the “far right” of the Iranian politics.

          Ghalibaf has his own party as he turned to politics after a long career in IRGC. Aragchi is a career diplomat, and was personally selected by late Khamenei to his inner circle to influence Iran’s foreign policy.

          The reformists like Khatami, Mousavi or Karroubi have been totally sidelined or even put in house arrest.

          In general, Iran has four factions, but labeling them is quite hard. One can think of it as Theocrats and Republicans both having been divided into Left and Right and then seasoned with some pragmatism and principlism for further confusion.

          Iran has around 40 political parties, among which there are, for example, Combatant Clergy Association (theocracy, nationalism, anti-imperialism) and Association of Combatant Clerics (reformism, clericalism, liberalism, Islamic democracy).

          For an autocracy Iran certainly has a political landscape that would take decades to figure out.

          tldr; Aracghi and Ghalibaf are the hardliners of the IRGC, pretty much.
       2. ThirtyOne April 18, 2026 at 5:18 pm

          Patricia Marins
          @pati_marins64
          8h
          FM Araghchi and MB Ghalibaf Positions Under Fire

          Just yesterday, the IRGC news agency openly criticized Araghchi on Twitter, exposing internal divisions within Iran’s top leadership.

          The reality is that neither Araghchi nor MB Ghalibaf responded forcefully enough to refute Trump’s statements throughout the entire day yesterday. Ghalibaf waited until 2 a.m. Iran time to make his tweet after the markets had closed, a highly suspicious move.

          https://nitter.poast.org/pati_marins64/status/2045478737622311416#m
          1. albrt April 18, 2026 at 7:01 pm

             Maybe Araghchi and Ghalibaf want Trump to have a chance to put his market manipulations on full display.

             I doubt the Iranian hardliners care whether American speculators lose money.
             1. John Wright April 18, 2026 at 10:07 pm

                The question that comes to mind is who is on the other (losing) side of the transaction?

                Is a sovereign wealth fund, a pension fund, an ETF, a bank, a private speculator or other party?

                It seems that the “Trump influenced market” will eventually be seen as unfair and catering to insiders and the losers will avoid it.

                This is similar to a lottery in which the house takes too much.

                The lottery loses customers as customers follow a simple policy “one can’t lose money by not playing”.
16. Ann April 18, 2026 at 9:37 am

    Iranian state media slams Foreign Minister Araghchi’s Hormuz opening tweet, say it let US claim victory

    https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604172614

    Iranian gunboats fire on tanker in Strait of Hormuz, British military says

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/iranian-gunboats-fire-on-tanker-in-strait-of-hormuz-british-military-says/article70877402.ece

    Convoy of tankers is seen crossing Strait of Hormuz, vessel tracking data shows

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/convoy-tankers-is-seen-leaving-gulf-vessel-tracking-data-shows-2026-04-18/

    Merchant vessels report gunfire as they attempt to cross Hormuz, shipping sources say

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/merchant-vessels-report-gunfire-they-attempt-cross-hormuz-shipping-sources-say-2026-04-18/

    India-Russia RELOS agreement allows 3,000 troops, 10 military aircrafts and 5 naval ships on each other’s territory.

    https://www.orfonline.org/english/expert-speak/india-russia-relos-agreement-a-strategic-pact-or-a-technical-formality
17. Ann April 18, 2026 at 9:44 am

    Iran mediators meet in Turkey to discuss peace push

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/iran-mediators-saudi-arabia-deal

    Pakistan Faces Extensive Blackouts as Gas Shortfall Worsens

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/pakistan-faces-extensive-blackouts-as-gas-shortfall-worsens

    Indian refiners purchase Iranian oil, pay in yuan – The Times of India

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indian-refiners-purchase-iranian-oil-pay-in-yuan/articleshow/130345352.cms

    Australia, Japan sign contracts to start $7 billion warship deal

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/australia-japan-sign-contracts-start-7-billion-warship-deal-2026-04-18/

    Large delegation of NATO envoys arrives in Japan

    https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20260416_09/

    India summons Iranian envoy after Indian-flagged tanker shot near Strait of Hormuz

    https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/mea-summons-iranian-envoy-after-indian-flagged-tanker-shot-at-near-strait-of-hormuz-101776516495906-amp.html
18. bertl April 18, 2026 at 10:38 am

    The only rational explanation of Trump’s statements is that he receives daily guidance from the ghost of Mystic Meg. Unfortunately he interprets it incorrectly. A new fatwah will be – or most likely has been – issued, and the US will find that the only way the US will get delivery of the “uranium dust” is in the tips of a host of hypersonic IBCMs.
19. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 10:44 am

    I can’t help but think that Trump’s strategy is to keep on kicking the can down the road until something turns up to save him. And to just keep on coming out with stupid ideas and thoughts. But how long can he keep it up? Those Midterms are getting closer and closer and by halting ALL oil coming out of the Hormuz, there will be at the minimum a global recession that will include the US. Voters will love that. He could restart the war but both the US and Israel will keep on coming up short of missile interceptors. And a ground invasion is out of the question as they have already had a preview of how that would work out and it was not good. But if Trump keep all this up we won’t have a recession to worry about but an actual world depression. Trouble is he does not want to leave until he can be seen to be the winner. The same as why he will not leave the Ukraine. No carved portrait for him on Mt. Rushmore then.
    1. curlydan April 18, 2026 at 11:48 am

       Why do I think this summer’s World Cup will be like the 1936 Olympics in Berlin?
       1. hk April 18, 2026 at 12:16 pm

          More like 1940 Olympics in Japan, it seems to me, even if not actually cancelled outright.
    2. NotTimothyGeithner April 18, 2026 at 1:14 pm

       Trump is like Netanyahu with his legal proceedings when the music stops. Only a win and 99 cent gas can save him given the attitudes of Democratic local committee types. They put up with quite a bit and didn’t get anything from the likes of Chuck Schumer. The next Trump investigation won’t be a vehicle to promote Lynne Cheney or put aside because Dick Durbin wants to take off for Valentine’s Day.
    3. .Tom April 18, 2026 at 1:42 pm

       > I can’t help but think that Trump’s strategy is …

       Wait. Wait. His what?
       1. Dr. John Carpenter April 18, 2026 at 3:02 pm

          Exactly. All the people trying to make sense of this are wasting their time. There is no strategy and nothing follows the rules of logic. This is the whims of a delusional narcissist who is too lazy to look at the world beyond social media and reels people he surrounds himself with present him. I think he truly believes what he posts on social media and given that is all over the map, expecting strategy here is folly.
20. AG April 18, 2026 at 10:51 am

    re: Norman Finkelstein

    I just discovered a mini-series of short letters which an Iranian friend of his has sent to publish on his site:

    So far 5 parts

    From a friend in Iran (Part 1)
    April 7
    https://www.normanfinkelstein.com/from-a-friend-in-iran-part-1/

    Part 2
    https://www.normanfinkelstein.com/from-a-friend-in-iran-part-2/

    Part 3
    April 8
    https://www.normanfinkelstein.com/from-an-iranian-friend-part-3/

    Part 4
    April 9
    https://www.normanfinkelstein.com/letter-from-an-iranian-friend-part-4/

    Part 5
    April 10
    https://www.normanfinkelstein.com/from-a-friend-in-iran-part-5/

    p.s. Regarding protest in Iran:

    Apart from everything else – the double standard in Europe regarding Ukrainian public support for the war v. protest in Iran is staggering.It´s completely ignored.

    We have no sudden increase of Iranian artists receiving every conceivable award in Germany.
    We have no Iranian poet receiving the Peace Award of German Publishers for demanding the destruction of Israel and the US (which no Iranian poet would do btw.)
    We have no mass protests calling for solidarity with Iran.
    No mass of press items idealizing Iran.
    And where are the German arms manufacturers providing drones to Iran?
    Artists calling for donations to buy drones for Iran?
    Or what about a parliamentary vote on sending TAURUS to Iran?
    Or calling on the ICC against Trump and Netanyahu?
    Or the ICJ against the US. Or Israel (oops we already have a case against them…)?
    Sick – sicker – jingoist – EU.

    While in the past you could go public with such demands and “provocative” positions – if you´d so now and did so constantly you could well run the risk of getting sanctioned – without a court, without the right to due process, without any means to defend yourself.
    1. .Tom April 18, 2026 at 3:10 pm

       Is it hypocrisy? Start by considering Israel itself. It is a settler colony with a foundational ideology of racial supremacy that defines itself through violence, dispossession, and exploitation directed at inferior people.

       The USA is qualitatively the same with its nature perhaps a bit more attenuated, a bit better hidden, but basically similar as artfully illustrated in the photo montage accompanying the new Massive Attack / Tom Waits release, Boots on the Ground:

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-57FrioeuE (7:13 some harrowing images)

       Given the racist fundamentals of these two societies, the difference in behavior towards Ukraine and Iran makes sense. The hypocrisy only arises when these societies deny their fundamental racism.

       What about Germany? An very interesting case. The only European society that has had to seriously and publicly deal with its history of racial supremacy is now proud to be foremost in support for Israel, it’s Staatsräson no less. Racial supremacy by proxy? It’s so weird.

       Liberalism is the theology Western Civilization uses to persuade itself that it isn’t supremacist.
21. Jason Boxman April 18, 2026 at 11:08 am

    I don’t think I’ve seen a war fought by such complete make believe so publicly and forcefully, ever; and only when Markets are closed. Trump must be calling upon the Magic Pony regiment right now.
    1. Randall Flagg April 18, 2026 at 12:08 pm

       Maybe the Unicorn United Brigades instead??
22. Tom Stone April 18, 2026 at 11:39 am

    The “Chain of Command” Starts with the Commander in Chief, Donald John Trump.
    Donald John Trump gave Pete Hegseth orders that were illegal on their face, orders that the Uniform Code of Justice is crystal clear about.
    Pete Hegseth had an affirmative duty to disobey those orders, something he might not understand because he is a “Dull Normal” organization man with a drinking problem.
    Hegseth then gave the Joint Chiefs of Staff those same blatantly illegal orders.
    Which they followed.
    The Joint Chiefs knew three things.
    1) That the orders to Attack Iran were illegal under both US and International Law ( UN Charter)

    2) That they had an affirmative DUTY to disobey those orders.

    3) that a War with Iran had been repeatedly War Gamed and in every case the IRGC kicked ass and the USA lost.

    If the Joint Chiefs had done their sworn duty the Ramadan War would never have started.
    If they, as a group, resigned in protest over these illegal orders there would be no war.
    Why did they decide to become War Criminals?

    Being on the Joint Chiefs is a sweet gig and there are those even sweeter Board seats for those who go along to get along.
    Money and Ego Trumps “Duty, Honor, Country”

    General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    General Christopher J Mahoney, Vice Chair

    General Christopher LaNeve, Acting Chief of Staff US Army

    General Eric Smith, Commandant USMC

    Admiral Daryl Caudle, Chief of naval Operations

    General Kenneth Wilsbach, Air Force Chief of Staff

    General B. Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations

    General Steven Nordhaus, Chief of the National Guard Bureau

    Remember Minab and remember these names when you do.
    1. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 12:22 pm

       One can hope that association with the present debacle will impair the quality of available post-retirement gigs.
    2. Don April 18, 2026 at 12:45 pm

       From what experience does this shock and horror about the USA military obeying illegal orders, becoming war criminals, etc., arise?

       Trump is not a pearl clutching, this-is-not-what-America-is anomaly, and the US military has been committing war crimes on a massive scale since Korea.
       1. Tom Stone April 18, 2026 at 6:31 pm

          I have been going to Anti War rallies and marches since 1967.
          Did that make a difference?
          No, but I made my position clear.
          The USA became much more openly Brutal after the Coup of 2000, when the Supremes decided 5 to 4 that the feller who said “The French don’t even have a word for “Entrepeneuers” would do a better job than Senator Gore’s boy, Albert.
          Torture normalized. bribery legalized, the Rule of Law abandoned…
          It’s an effing mess and it is about to get ugly.
          Stay safe…
    3. ilsm April 18, 2026 at 12:47 pm

       On the list of DoW cheifs Dan Caine was junior in rank to every one but the national guard bureau chief!

       Hegseth made major in some national guard outfit. Then became Fox News on screen veteran.
23. Socal Rhino April 18, 2026 at 11:42 am

    For insights into the current decision making in the White House particularly about the war, I recommend Larry Johnson’s discussion with Robert Barnes on Johnson’s Counter Currents. Readers here won’t agree with some of the secondary political comments (these are Republicans after all) but some good stuff much in the vein of King Lear. One nugget: Vance has no intention of running in 2028 (that ship sailed a while ago per Barnes).
    1. AG April 18, 2026 at 12:00 pm

       thanks
    2. JonnyJames April 18, 2026 at 12:07 pm

       No worries, I don’t believe much of what so-called Democrats say either. Stas Krapivnik was talking to Barnes recently as well. I don’t pay much attention to the material that falls well outside their area of expertise, but they are excellent in their fields
    3. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 12:26 pm

       Second this recommendation.

       I was a bit disconcerted by Johnson’s unapologetic admission that he had three times voted for DJT. And by his apparent interpretation of DJT’s confabulation as a recent development.

       I can understand rejecting the D alternative, but 3rd party protest vote is a valid choice in such cases. I gather than 3rd party alternatives were to him undesirable. These things will shade my interpretation of him going into the future.
       1. JonnyJames April 18, 2026 at 12:42 pm

          I think that most of the US military and intelligence analysts we follow admit “voted” for the dude. Ritter, Wilkerson, MacGregor, Judge Nap, and even Martyanov. They all say they regret it and believed that a serial liar and conman would do what he promised. The WANTED to believe, but they must have known better. We all want to believe in US democracy and all that, but at this stage, it has become almost impossible given the facts.

          The US elections are mostly performative PR stunts, they do no offer any meaningful choice, so why legitimize a farce? Because of the winner-takes-all (first past the post) electoral system, third parities winning elections are almost unheard of. Crudely put: elections are bought. I know that sounds cynical, but the facts are clear. Even the most intelligent people get sucked into desperation and hopium, but then again I’m just a doom and gloomer, there is no factual basis for my opinion, or so I am told
          1. EY Oakland April 18, 2026 at 7:42 pm

             I think many things played into the votes these men cast, including hope. And I think they’ve learned things as time has revealed what Trump is (and is not). I’ve winced at statements I’ve heard coming from them over these months, including MacGregor opining that the “military has been feminized.” I can appreciate that the most important thing for all of us is to learn, and to try to see past our prejudices. I don’t think MacGregor would make that statement today.
          2. JP April 18, 2026 at 8:29 pm

             You are fixated on the presidential election as are most. The only reason Trump can get away with it is because the republican power brokers control the house and senate.
             1. Andrew April 18, 2026 at 9:50 pm

                That depends on him following the law. It is hard to tell when he will play along or not. He does usually follow a court ruling, but I don’t know why. The idea that it’s fine to break the law until the court slaps your hand is strange. Congress has no army or police force, so their ability to reel in the president when others obey him is limited.
          3. jrkrideau April 18, 2026 at 9:02 pm

             The thing is that the Orange Julius tried to withdraw troops from Syria and set in motion the negotiations that lead to the eventual withdrawal of US forces from Iran.

             He spoke of at least talking to Russia.

             Compared to Biden, he looked marginally better on the international front.

             Based on that record I can see why one might vote for him. You did not even have to think he had ethical objections to these occupations, etc. My personal opinion was that he did not think he could make money from war. Clearly I underestimated his ingenuity.
    4. Mcsnoot April 18, 2026 at 3:18 pm

       So is it going to be Rubio? Someone from the Trump family/clan? Or Trump himself via some legal or supralegal shenanigans (assuming he’s even alive)
       1. jonboinAR April 18, 2026 at 4:02 pm

          I didn’t understand from Johnson how the Vance ship has sailed regarding the ’28 elections. Was it just because these most recent negotiations made him look vaguely like a tool? Others have opined that he and Gabbard both have behaved yes-people-ish recently, but I don’t know. Me, I still wish Gabbard were in position for a run. I’m hoping right now, emotionally hunkered down as I am, that there’s something to run for by then.
          1. albrt April 18, 2026 at 7:06 pm

             I am hoping that there is not something to run for by 2028. The sooner the United States breaks up into reasonable sized countries that can’t terrorize the world, the better for everybody.
          2. Socal Rhino April 18, 2026 at 7:12 pm

             It’s Vance’s assessment that the Republican party is in for major punishment by voters in November and anyone running will be ending their careers. Rubio may make the same judgement but per Barnes, Vance already has.

             Polling is showing a tidal wave against Republicans that may spill over into gubernatorial and lower local races in addition to losing the House and Senate by possibly historic margins.
             1. Samuel Conner April 18, 2026 at 8:22 pm

                IIRC, toward the end of the Johnson/Barnes segment, Barnes mentioned the interstate electoral college compact, that would bind member state legislatures to appoint electors for whichever candidate wins the national popular vote. The compact comes into effect when ratified by states with electoral votes totalling 270 or more — thereafter (until or unless states withdrew from the compact) the President would be elected by national popular vote through the functioning of the compact. Barnes seemed to think that a Blue wave in November would lead to the compact coming into effect due to D wins at state level. Neither Johnson nor Barnes thought that would be a good thing. I’m inclined to disagree.
                1. John k April 18, 2026 at 10:24 pm

                   Would give dems an advantage to get away from elect college, but wouldn’t have hurt trump in 24, or imo any time they run such an incompetent, unpopular candidate.
             2. jonboinAR April 18, 2026 at 9:42 pm

                Tulsi’s run as a Demo before, right? Maybe…
       2. NotTimothyGeithner April 18, 2026 at 5:32 pm

          There was an old SNL sketch from 1991 where the likely Democratic candidates were not running. I could see Vance convincing himself he’s viable in 2032.
          1. PuntaPete April 18, 2026 at 8:24 pm

             Yes, Cumo, Rockefeller chickened out and we got Buba.
24. Marduk April 18, 2026 at 12:02 pm

    I think the saying is not to mud wrestle with a pig, because you get dirty and the pig likes it. Just wrestling with a pig could be a clean fight!
    1. tawal April 19, 2026 at 1:50 am

       Yes, but US wrestling with a Warthog not a pig
25. Ann April 18, 2026 at 12:04 pm

    Trump claims on Iranian concessions trigger questions, rejections in Tehran

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/18/trump-claims-on-iranian-concessions-trigger-questions-rejections-in-tehran

    The Strait of Hormuz has been open intermittently since midday on 17 April 2026.

    https://www.channel4.com/news/iran-reopens-strait-of-hormuz-to-commercial-ships

    Iran war has wiped out $50 billion worth of oil supply in 50 days

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-50-days-iran-war-led-loss-50-billion-worth-oil-2026-04-17/

    Trump Extends Sanctions Exemption on Some Russian Oil as High Gas Prices Persist

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/world/middleeast/russia-us-oil-sanctions.html

    Iran says no date set for next round of negotiations with US

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-no-date-set-for-next-round-of-negotiations-with-us

    Pete Hegseth says Iran is digging out missiles and launchers

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/hegseth-says-iran-digging-missile-launchers-rcna332161

    US military prepares to board Iran-linked ships in coming days, WSJ reports

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-prepares-board-iran-linked-ships-coming-days-wsj-reports-2026-04-18/
26. OldMan April 18, 2026 at 12:26 pm

    The 1970’s New Age had the Laws of Manifestation, posited by David Spangler
27. XXYY April 18, 2026 at 12:38 pm

    …despite a crop of reports alleging that US navy personnel are suffering from inadequate food and hygienic conditions. Whether or not these reports are true they do serve as a reminder of the great logistical challenge involved in feeding and sustaining any invading army in armed and hostile territory.

    The current situation is strangely reminiscent of Napoleon’s march on Moscow.

    One would think that logistical capabilities had improved since then, but I guess it’s hard to appreciate how much food and supplies are needed by thousands of soldiers and support staff. I’ve taken tours of the USS Midway, an aircraft carrier turned naval museum moored in San Diego harbor, and one of the things the tour guides always stress when they get to the kitchen is how many meals were prepared and served every damn day.

    And yet, you would think the Navy would find it easy and normal to resupply their ships via other ships. No need to resort to aircraft or trucks or mules or men with backpacks, as US forces in landlocked Afghanistan required.
    1. NotTimothyGeithner April 18, 2026 at 2:10 pm

       resupply their ships via other ships.

       This was a common criticism of Bill Clinton’s military cuts as such as they were. The switch to bases meant the Navy would be dependent on local sites instead of resupply at sea. Shrub actually criticized this in the 2000 race as the USS Cole likely would have been at sea before those cuts, hence it wouldn’t have been a target.

       The read between the lines excuse was wars were unthinkable except for wars the US would win because of globalization. Part of the story is “the generals” are as stupid and naive as they ever were. They may have a few better intro classes at West Point, but that is it.

       Bill was able to say he didn’t diminish the combat capability because the combat ships were secure. It’s just the ships that resupplied anything but the carriers were mothballed.
28. Steve H. April 18, 2026 at 12:47 pm

    Please give a moment’s empathy to the crew of the USS Gerald R. Ford.

    johnnyme‘s excerpt from USS Ford returns to the Middle East:

    The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, has again entered the waters of the Middle East, two defense officials told the Associated Press.

    The Ford, which until recently was operating in the Eastern Mediterranean, transited the Suez Canal, along with a pair of destroyers, the USS Mahan and the USS Winston S. Churchill, and is now operating in the Red Sea, one official said.

    * * *

    We saw the food, we know many slept on the floor; when they were sitting in dock for repairs in Croatia, they could’ve dreamed of returning home before the longest Navy deployment in history. Instead they see the Suez, down the pipe with the Houthis waiting at the sphincter, mines anytime… Maybe the bad won’t happen, but it’s not in their control, and some aren’t even 21 years old yet. ‘In war, the moral is to the physical as three to one.’ Burnside only got 500 of his own men killed, the Ford is the f’in death star (at least financially) with an order of magnitude more meat, and I cannot come up with a historical example of a battle with such potentially catastrophic ultimate outcomes.
    1. ThirtyOne April 18, 2026 at 8:40 pm

       As a Navy vet, this made me laugh, because it’s true.

       A deployed Sailor’s entire universe is lived inside a humming, throbbing metal box, with “halls” (passageways) so tight you often have to turn sideways to pass somebody. You can touch both sides of a “passageway” with your fingers. The steel “ceiling” is an inch or 2 over your head, except when ducking below all the “head knockers” like the (usually open) watertight doors/hatches that about every 20 feet in every direction. Front, back, port, starboard, up and down “ladders.” Depending on your rate/job, you might never see the sky for a week at a time. Engine room to rack to mess deck for chow to engine room to rack, etc. Is there enough water for a Navy Shower? A glorious day! But is it day? You haven’t seen the sun or sky in a week. So, who knows? Sailors say, and they are not joking, “you pass yourself in the passageway.”

       https://nitter.poast.org/Matt_Bracken48/status/2045626979450319160#m
       1. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 9:10 pm

          Thanks ThirtyOne for that link. That description was pretty bad that. I did note one section where it said ‘Six+ months spent living in an enclosed steel box.’ How long has the USS Ford been at sea now? Something like going onto a year – with no end in sight? And the same must be true for the ships accompanying that carrier too. Then they chopped their mail because they couldn’t be bothered delivering it. That’s a bad brew that.
29. ilsm April 18, 2026 at 1:00 pm

    The order book at the MIC is exploding with orders that cannot to be filled for years!

    US has had nearly two weeks to fly the wings off C-17’s and a few C-5M’s delivering long range precision strike ordnance and missile defense interceptors from stocks devoted to “other wars”, and also high valuation complex spare parts for deployed aircraft, again from stocks dedicated for “other wars”.

    Soon (now?) US won’t be able to score positive “readiness” for one or more “other wars”.

    The lead time to resupply such kit is very long.

    Good news for the objects of the “other wars”.

    While the supply ships with rations for the deployed USN fleet are slow in coming!

    This near vision for “other wars” needs has been evident since 2014 arming up Kiev and 2023 supplying bombs for ethnic cleansing Gaza.

    MIC profits start now with progress payments for floor space and equipment to arrange new sales.

    I suspect it may be faster/cheaper to create new designs than try and figure out how to make the “same old” that don’t work very well……
    1. ISL April 18, 2026 at 1:14 pm

       new designs? What is the time for a new design to leave the power point slide stage these days? a decade or two or more? Where is the littoral combat ship replacement? The AWACs replacement? the… The gears are cluttered frozen (a CF) while the profits flow smoothly….
       1. Polar Socialist April 18, 2026 at 2:00 pm

          LUCAS, a totally indigenous design, went from reverse engineering to deployment in a few years.

          Next do S-400 Low Cost Area Denial System and Chengdu J-10 Low Cost Multi-Role Fighter System.
       2. ilsm April 18, 2026 at 9:03 pm

          My observation is setting up a line to make 1000 a month after making 50 a month is as daunting as proving a new design and building a whole new line.

          I add that the supply chain of parts last manufactured in quantity 15 years ago is same as finding new parts’ manufactures.

          If the new stuff works…. the old is being defeated why build the old?

          MIC wins either way!
30. ISL April 18, 2026 at 1:10 pm

    Although I am sure there will be resumed standoff missiles shot into Iran, the movement of ground troops to the theater suggests it will have a ground component, too.

    So here is my idea for Iran. Run a heavy truck midnight convoy running with red lights, accompanied by lightly armed mobile infantry from Isfahan to a prepared “ambush” site, preferably near a border with a NATO-friendly country – say Turkey.

    Would the Americans fall for it? Do desperate losers keep gambling in a Vegas casino?
31. Hickory April 18, 2026 at 1:18 pm

    Too bad Yves can’t shut down Making Shit Up from Trump like she does in the comment section.

    One positive note – Trump noted that Israel is ‘prohibited from doing so’ (bombing Lebanon) by the USA. Suggesting that Trump/USA can indeed prohibit Israel from something.
    1. JonnyJames April 18, 2026 at 1:29 pm

       “…Israeli artillery has targeted the central sector of southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire, Al Jazeera’s correspondent reports…”

       From 2 hours ago on AJ live feed. As predicted, Israel does not observe ceasefires.

       And this from yesterday
       https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/lebanon-israel-ceasefire-hezbollah-9.7167688
       1. Yalt April 18, 2026 at 3:40 pm

          Israel doesn’t violate ceasefires either. They “test” them, as evidenced by an assortment of headlines over the past year…

          Israel strikes Gaza in first major test of ceasefire (PBS)

          Israel launches strikes on Gaza in latest test to fragile ceasefire (France24)

          Gaza ceasefire tested as Israeli forces kill five Palestinians (AlJazeera)

          Netanyahu orders ‘forceful’ strikes in Gaza, testing ceasefire (Politico)
          1. JonnyJames April 18, 2026 at 5:28 pm

             Thanks for that list, the similarity of language is striking.
    2. hereweare April 18, 2026 at 1:46 pm

       ANYONE SICK OF WINNING YET? – a post from POTUS – 17 second video
       My rough transcript:
       We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning, and you’ll say, please, please, it’s too much winning, we can’t take it any more, Mr President, it’s too much, and I’ll say no it isn’t, we have to keep winning, we have to win more. We’re gonna win more.
    3. Dr. John carpenter April 18, 2026 at 3:06 pm

       Suggesting, yes. But the proof is in the pudding and, so far evidence points to this being the equivalent of a strongly worded letter.
32. Ann April 18, 2026 at 1:38 pm

    Every Data Centre Is a US Military Base
    Understanding how the US uses its tech companies to serve its empire — and how Canada should respond.

    https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2026/04/16/Every-Data-Centre-US-Military-Base/

    Hezbollah threatens Lebanon’s president: ‘He will lose his status if he meets Netanyahu’

    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skowwnltzl

    Few stories to report today. Unusual.
    1. hereweare April 18, 2026 at 2:46 pm

       The Washington Post had
       Here’s what the stock market might have gotten wrong about the Iran war (archived)
       Nothing that would come as news to anyone here, little by way of explanation either, and what little there is is dubious.
       The surge in optimism contrasts starkly with continued energy supply challenges that threaten long-lasting economic harm — and a market reckoning.
       …

       “The people closest to the industry are far more concerned about these disruptions and recognize the length of time it will take for things to return to normal — if they ever do,” said Gerry Morton, oil and gas co-chair at the law firm Baker Botts. “The further away you get from actually being involved in producing oil, the less you seem to be concerned about the physical reality and problems that are there.”

       Even investors rushing to tap into market optimism warned in interviews that it masks deep, underlying problems that threaten a reckoning in the not too distant future.

       “We know supply chains are breaking down in Asia and even Europe,” said Ritesh Jain, founder of the investment firm Pinetree Macro. “We know a correction is eventually coming. But everybody wants to live the present moment. People are just saying to themselves, ‘They will solve these issues. And if they don’t get solved, we will sell then.’”

       “We have to dance while the music lasts and hope you are near the exit door when it stops,” he said. “I am in that exact situation, despite talking to people in the background who know something is going to break.”
       1. southern appalachian April 18, 2026 at 6:31 pm

          I suspect Amazon will be particularly attentive to oil prices.
    2. urdsama April 18, 2026 at 5:07 pm

       The quiet before the storm, perhaps?
    3. John k April 18, 2026 at 11:26 pm

       The quiet before the storm? Wonder how long us can op the next phase before running out of def/ogg missiles…2 weeks?
       Maybe starting 4/24 to mid May max? Then we won/can go home?
33. ISL April 18, 2026 at 1:41 pm

    From a story in today’s links on why the US is running out of weapons despite spending off the charts: Given the lack of ground radars – the need for round-the-clock coverage of Israel (3 planes), there is no way the US has even crappy coverage of western European-sized Iran.

    When the US recently lost an E-3 Sentry AWACS radar plane in an Iranian missile strike on a base in Saudi Arabia, the targeted plane represented perhaps a quarter or a fifth of the US Air Force’s deployable fleet for a critical eyes-in-the-sky role defending against Iranian missiles and drones.

    The US E-3 Sentry fleet of so-called Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) planes dates to the 1970s and today comprises just 16 or 17 airworthy aircraft — about half of which are operable at any given time and six of which are deployed to the Middle East to support Operation Epic Fury. (“We basically have [the E-3 AWACS] airplanes in hospice care,” the general in charge of Air Combat Command told reporters last year.) Meanwhile, the anticipated replacement, the E-7 Wedgetail, was recently canceled by the Trump administration.

    https://www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/how-did-the-us-run-out-of-missiles-in-iran?

    The other point is that only 6/16 or ~33% are deployable; my SWAG is from cannibalization. One wonders if two-thirds of other ancient US airframes that are “on the books” are undeployable (not the same as mission-ready).
34. Mikel April 18, 2026 at 2:05 pm

    For crying out loud…

    The region doesn’t have a PR and messaging problem. They have a settler-colonial problem.
    If that can’t be dealt with, the region will remain in chaos for another century.
35. Jabura Basadai April 18, 2026 at 3:42 pm

    oh my goodness please be as careful as possible in Dubai –
    1. Acacia April 18, 2026 at 5:35 pm

       Yes, re: Dubai …

       https://x.com/Xking332/status/2045019881146581027

       If this is true, sounds like they have thrown the switch on some nasty surveillance and policing. Gotta keep the tin pot looking shiny for expats and influencers.
36. Rui April 18, 2026 at 4:37 pm

    Here in Portugal, diesel and gasoline prices are going down next week, following the delusional Brent pricing and most think the worst is over. May they enjoy this week.
    As for me, I’m exhausted, watching so much killing in Iran and Lebanon and Gaza with my ‘leaders’ support is some serious moral injury. I feel increasingly alienated from most society around me.
37. Ann April 18, 2026 at 4:59 pm

    Bluetooth tracker hidden in a postcard and mailed to a warship exposed its location — $5 gadget put a $585 million Dutch ship at risk for 24 hours

    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/cyber-security/bluetooth-tracker-hidden-in-a-postcard-and-mailed-to-a-warship-exposed-its-location-a-eur5-gadget-put-a-eur500-million-dutch-ship-at-risk-for-24-hours

    Trump convenes Iran situation room meeting amid renewed Hormuz crisis

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/18/iran-trump-white-house-hormuz

    Bibi torched U.S. support for Israel for a generation

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/18/israel-us-support-congress-netanyahu

    Trump Admin Is Reportedly Laying Groundwork for a Military Operation in Cuba

    https://truthout.org/articles/trump-admin-is-reportedly-laying-groundwork-for-a-military-operation-in-cuba/

    Hegseth orders termination of union contracts

    https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2026/04/hegseth-orders-termination-union-contracts/412899/

    An Unholy War and the Blasphemy of Donald J. Trump

    https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/donald-trump-ai-jesus

    For second time, Trump seeks to eliminate federal funding for tribal colleges and universities

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-budget-tribal-colleges-funding-cuts-baac46e2c8fb596de8cc7995f156ddcf
    1. Cat Burglar April 18, 2026 at 9:01 pm

       After the union contracts at the Letterkenny Munitions Center, Air Force Sustainment Center, and Fleet Readiness Center get the chop, better not expect ammunition or the supplies you ordered for resupply to show up on time. Hegseth has figured out how to shoot himself in the foot without even having a bullet.
    2. Acacia April 18, 2026 at 10:59 pm

       You know it’s bad when Axios runs a headline like “Bibi torched U.S. support for Israel for a generation”.
38. johnnyme April 18, 2026 at 8:10 pm

    More than 1,000 Tel Aviv homes left uninhabitable by Iran war: Mayor

    More than 1,000 homes in Tel Aviv have been left uninhabitable by the recent war with Iran, the city’s mayor said Saturday.

    Channel 12 reported earlier this week that Israeli officials estimate the cost of 40 days of war with Iran and Lebanon at around $17.5 billion.

    The figure does not include reconstruction costs or losses from the partial shutdown of the Israeli economy during the fighting.

    According to Israeli media, nearly 30,000 Israelis have filed claims with the Israeli Tax Authority’s compensation fund for direct property damage, including 18,408 claims related to buildings, 2,594 to equipment and 6,617 to vehicles.
39. Jason Boxman April 18, 2026 at 8:31 pm

    The NY Times and the military and national security establishment discovered drones. Hilariously, as I recall it was a frequent taunt that Russia couldn’t even built its own drones early on in the SMO, and was relying upon Iranian drones, and yet we’re blindsided that Iran is using its own drones in its defense?

    How Iran’s Cheap, Low-Tech Drones Have Cost the U.S.

    One of the biggest takeaways of the war with Iran is that it has proven itself to be a surprisingly capable adversary against the United States. In addition to its willingness to go on the offensive, Iran has forced the U.S. and its regional allies to confront the rise of cheap drones on the battlefield.

    Iranian drones, made with commercial-grade technology, cost roughly $35,000 to produce. That is a fraction of the cost of the high-tech military interceptors sometimes used to shoot them down.

    Claims the most cost effective counter is an F-16 with a pair of Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) II fired per done, but fails to mention the cost of flying and maintaining the F-16. LOL. Moreover, there aren’t likely much rare earths in these drones I would think? America lacks any credible counterweight.

    What a stupid timeline.
40. Jason Boxman April 18, 2026 at 10:51 pm

    It’s go time?

    Trump shifts, suggests a decision on Iran may be made tonight.

    Here we go!

    https://x.com/DougAMacgregor
    1. The Rev Kev April 18, 2026 at 11:28 pm

       Just in time to hype the markets before TACO Tuesday.
       1. skippy April 19, 2026 at 1:45 am

          The question in my mind is what happens if round 2 is as bad or worse than how things worked out in round one for U.S./Israel. I mean besides Trump and Bibi proclaiming authority with victory whilst both houses burn down. I mean Iran is not Afghanistan/Iraq et al where they might make life difficult on the ground, as you invade but, Iran has a serious potential for area denial, maybe not 100% yet it can take out lots of assets and then retaliate throughout the whole ME region. Not just hard military assets but things like financial transaction nodes and AI/Data centers. All whilst the rest of the world cops it due to the afterglow of neoliberal globalism.

          A econ side note too all this, events occurring in Argentina with Milei’s libertarian socioeconomic agenda. Seems even the IMF is freaking out. Best part – if there is one – is my brother just moved there so he could both breath in the libertarian air whilst on a 4K a month full military disability stipend from the U.S. government. Basically so he could get a social status lifestyle upgrade ….. oh life ….

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