Two contrasting emails hit my inbox late Thursday night central time and epitomized the narrative conflict between the mainstream of American narrative control and alternative media over the current ceasefire in Trump’s Iran War.
On the one hand there was Gideon Rose’s piece for Foreign Affairs headlined “Why the Cease-Fire With Iran Will Hold” and subtitled, “The De-Escalatory Logic That Will Shape Negotiations”
And then there was Larry Johnson’s Substack newsletter headlined “Donald Trump and Scott Bessent Destroy Any Chance to Negotiate an End to the War with Iran.”
Rose, under the masthead of the Council on Foreign Relations argues the ceasefire will hold because:
In Iran, the endgame began with Trump’s threat of massive destruction if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz, and it will continue until the belligerents come to a stable agreement ending hostilities. The cease-fire is likely to hold for the same reason it was agreed to in the first place: both sides were hurting and would hurt even more if the war escalated instead of ending.
The Trump administration launched the war confident that the conflict would be relatively quick and cheap and that Iran wouldn’t be able or willing to hit back. Neither assumption proved true…
Trump’s ultimatum—threatening that “a whole civilization will die” if Iran did not capitulate—was almost certainly a bluff, because carrying out such an extraordinary threat would have been incredibly costly for the United States and risky for its allies in the Gulf, which remained vulnerable to Iranian counterattack. But since everyone knows Trump’s “madman” act isn’t entirely an act, the Iranians could not be sure Trump would cave. With neither side wanting to make the war total, both stepped back from the brink. And at that point, the war’s endgame began in earnest.
…
When the dust clears, Iran is likely to retain the potential for some sort of nuclear program, but the United States should be able to gain some restrictions on it. (Whether those restrictions will be more or less than the ones contained in the nuclear deal from which the United States withdrew in 2018 remains to be seen.) Some sanctions on Iran will be lifted; others may continue. The passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be restored, but on new terms that will probably advantage Iran.
Johnson is less sanguine and adds a lot of detail about Bessant’s declared economic war on China and Iran (which I covered in yesterday’s update):
Bessent revealed that two Chinese banks have already received formal letters from the US Treasury. The letters state that if the banks are found processing Iranian transactions, they face the risk of secondary sanctions. He declined to name the banks. This comes alongside broader Treasury letters sent to financial institutions in China, Hong Kong, the UAE, and Oman.
Bessent went on to accuse China of hoarding oil during the conflict (instead of helping stabilize global markets), limiting exports of certain goods, and continuing to buy large volumes of Iranian crude (historically over 90% of Iran’s oil exports, accounting for about 8% of China’s energy needs). He compared this to China’s behavior during COVID-19 (hoarding medical supplies) and its past threats on rare earth exports, calling it a pattern of unreliability. Bessent stupidly believes the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the sanctions threat, will cause China to pause or stop buying Iranian oil. He stated that China “will no longer be able to obtain oil from Iran” under the new enforcement.
To make matters worse, Bessent announced that the Department of the Treasury is canceling sanctions waivers on Iranian (and Russian) oil, targeting Iran’s oil transportation infrastructure and elite smuggling networks (including the Shamkhani family), and working to freeze Iranian leadership funds held abroad. Gulf states are reportedly helping expose hidden Iranian accounts.
There’s more on the China sanctions in Asia Times.
Time will tell who is correct.
But given the long and winding narrative wars yesterday (the less kino is happening on the battlefields, the more twists and turns Trump and the MSM are able to lead us through) we should probably start with the ceasefire news that dropped early Thursday.
Here’s POTUS Trump’s Truth social post that kicked the off day’s dreamweaving:
I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST. On Tuesday, the two Countries met for the first time in 34 years here in Washington, D.C., with our Great Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. I have directed Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, together with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Razin’ Caine, to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a Lasting PEACE. It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th, so let’s, GET IT DONE! President DONALD J. TRUMP
I presume he’s using “highly respected” to describe President Aoun the way Joe Biden used to use “completely unprovoked” to describe Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
In addition to the statement just issued, I will be inviting the Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, and the President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, to the White House for the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983, a very long time ago. Both sides want to see PEACE, and I believe that will happen, quickly! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The New York Times added some deets:
Hezbollah acknowledged the cease-fire in a pair of statements on Thursday, but did not directly address whether it would accept the truce, saying its actions would be “based on how developments unfold.”
Israel and Hezbollah continued to trade strikes in the hours before the cease-fire was set to take effect, according to statements from each side.
The U.S. State Department, outlining the truce in a memo on Thursday, said that Israel would retain its right “to take all necessary measures in self-defense” but would not carry out “offensive operations” against Lebanese targets by land, air or sea. The Lebanese government, with international support, is expected to take “meaningful steps” to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against Israeli targets…
That last bit sounds ominous and like and impending double-cross against Hezbollah by the Lebanese government.
But I’ll believe that the feckless Lebanese Army will go at Hezbollah when I see it reported. In the meantime there’s a ceasefire to explain.
To do that I’ll quote Kit Klarenberg’s interpretation of events, which is obviously heavily biased in favor of Hezbollah, because I presume readers can get anti-Hezbollah agitprop in any MSM publication (and more nuanced discussion right here in the NC comments from Aurelian and others):
On March 23rd, Tel Aviv’s finance minister Bezalel Smotrich – a self-proclaimed fascist – urged the ZOF [what Klarenberg calls the Israeli forces…Nat] to formally annex southern Lebanon. Since then, over a million people have been displaced, thousands killed, and civilian infrastructure razed en masse. While a significant chunk of the country is now occupied, the cost for Tel Aviv was substantial. Unrelenting Hezbollah fire produced heavy casualties and record equipment and vehicle losses, including 21 Merkava main battle tanks in a single day on March 26th.
On April 2nd, Israeli media openly advertised the impending ceasefire in the war on Iran. It was revealed the Zionist entity was preparing to intensify its air campaign against Lebanon, due to the enormous damage inflicted upon the ZOF by the Resistance.
On April 5th, the ZOF’s Northern Command chief admitted Tel Aviv had grossly overestimated damage inflicted upon Hezbollah during its October 2024 invasion of Lebanon. Entity political and military chiefs had long-claimed the Resistance faction was obliterated by the illegal intervention. The ZOF estimated 70 – 80% of Hezbollah’s rocket capabilities were destroyed during the conflict. This reverie was comprehensively shattered by hundreds of the group’s projectiles successfully targeting Tel Aviv daily, throughout the Zionist-American war on Iran.
No wonder that conflict is now on hold. Hezbollah remains a redoubtable adversary, which can independently, and in tandem with its Resistance comrades, thwart Tel Aviv’s seizure of Lebanese territory, and permanently expel Zionist settlers from northern Palestine.
…
Then on April 3rd, the ZOF openly admitted “its goal of disarming Hezbollah” was “unrealistic, as it would require the military to launch a full-scale invasion of Lebanon,” which Tel Aviv wasn’t able to wage. In other words, the Resistance was undefeated, and Lebanese territory couldn’t be stolen. Having been engaged in perpetual, multi-front war since October 7th 2023, the exhausted Zionist entity lacked the muscle to achieve its Lebanese goals while also targeting Iran, contrary to intelligence, military and political forecasts.
There’s also an interesting Israeli strategic memo Israeli doctrine “Queen of the Jungle? On the Role of Israel’s Military Power in Establishing a New Regional Order in the Middle East” by a Brigadier General and a Lt. Colonel who recommend modifying the IDF “to the role of a regional protective force with prolonged and continuous operational capability throughout the Middle East. The IDF is required to adopt a new strategy that recognizes this and to change in a way that will give it the freedom of action, the pace of operations, the breathing space and the operational advantages it needs to fight simultaneously in several theaters, near and far.”
Do the Israelis sound ceasefire capable?
And I’ll wrap the ceasefire section with a NYT op-ed preceded by some quotes from Ehsan Safarnejad, a self-described “Iranian guy trying to debunk the propaganda that’s published by Western MSM on his country” from his conversation with Fiorella Isabel regarding Iran’s decision to accept a ceasefire and negotiate with the “agreement incapable” U.S.:
Ehsan, while personally opposed to the ceasefire, offered a more layered defense of Iran’s decision to participate in the talks, arguing that the ceasefire emerged not from weakness but from a strategic calculus following an IRGC threat to target Persian Gulf monarchies if U.S. infrastructure strikes proceeded. He also pointed to China’s veto of a Security Council resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting Beijing may have pressured Tehran into negotiations in exchange for diplomatic cover—which also benefits them because they are severely affected by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Ehsan can also be seen on a recent episode of Syriana Analysis with Kevork Almassian.
And here’s that NYT piece which handwrings about “Why China Won’t Lean Hard on Iran“:
China, even as it grows more concerned about the war’s impact on its economy, has avoided becoming too entangled in the crisis. That includes being noncommittal in its response to Tehran’s calls for China to guarantee its security, as well as not using its influence as Iran’s largest trading partner to push the country to accept U.S. demands.
Asking China to pressure Iran is to “misread China’s foreign policy and position,” said Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University. “Helping the United States or Israel is not China’s intention because China opposed this war from the very beginning.”
Gee, ya think? Maybe that’s related to China’s ever-improving poll numbers with Americans.
But maybe China is helping Iran, at least that’s what this very thinly sourced CBS News report quotes some anonymous U.S. military officials as saying:
U.S. officials, who spoke to CBS News on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues, said Beijing had considered supplying Iran with X-band radar systems. This technology would significantly enhance Iran’s ability to detect and track incoming threats, like low-flying drones and cruise missiles, and could help protect its air defense systems against advanced strikes.
It remains unclear whether China ultimately moved forward with the transfer but the assessment underscores Washington’s concern that the Iranian war is drawing in not only regional adversaries but also global competitors willing to provide critical support, short of direct military involvement…
I feel stupid just for quoting two paragraphs of that.
Now let’s look at what the U.S. military is up to, or at least what Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth is talking about.
“Our forces are maximally postured to restart combat operations should this new Iranian regime choose poorly and not agree to a deal,” Mr. Hegseth said during a briefing to reporters at the Pentagon. “We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation and on your energy industry.”
“We’d rather not have to do it,” he added, “but we’re ready to go at the command of our president and at the push of a button.”
Under international law, intentionally targeting a country’s energy infrastructure could constitute a war crime.
…
Mr. Hegseth said that the blockade would last “for as long as it takes” and that “if Iran chooses poorly” by not agreeing to a deal with the United States, “then they will have a blockade — and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy.”The defense secretary also called out journalists who are reporting on the war, comparing them to the Pharisees who criticized Jesus of Nazareth for performing miracles.
“The Pharisees scrutinized every good act in order to find a violation,” Mr. Hegseth said, “only looking for the negative.”
The actual efficacy of the U.S. blockade atop a blockade remains very opaque and hard to parse.
The A.P. says the blockade is working and has some details that I should have included in yesterday’s report:
On Tuesday, the first full day of the blockade, only eight vessels, most of them linked to Iran or sanctioned, transited the strait, said Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at data and analytical firm Kpler. The environment is still considered “extremely high risk” despite the ceasefire, she said.
“Most of the vessels have appeared to halt or have reduced movement after clearing the strait,” she said, “which tells us that the effect of the blockade is starting to show up because most of these vessels that have crossed have some kind of history with carrying Iranian-origin sanctioned cargo.”
The Rich Starry, a Chinese-owned tanker previously sanctioned by the U.S. for smuggling Iranian petroleum products, left the strait and then turned back this week, according to publicly available ship tracking data.
On top of Wednesday’s Reuters report of two ships turned back by the U.S. Navy, we do have another confirmed interdiction on Thursday:
There are only five VLCC supertankers in the world which have that superstructure (and we have photographed many from shores), and all five are owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company. This looks like DEEP SEA (9218492) transporting 2 million barrels of Iranian crude. https://t.co/Prluv0Rpvm
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 16, 2026
But then there’s this which seems to confirm the U.S. blockade is as porous as analysts like Jim Webb and Larry Johnson have told us to expect:
As you can clearly see in this 3 day long AIS playback since the blockade line was drawn between the eastern horn of Oman and the Iran-Pakistan border, a lot of the tankers which have been placed under US sanctions have been entering and departing the scene with ease. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/0ZoMz0LfQj
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 17, 2026
We also have some open source reporting on moves by U.S. aircraft carrier groups:
Three carrier strike groups are converging on the Persian Gulf for the first time since March 2003.
The last time that happened, the Iraqi government fell 72 hours later.
You deter with one carrier.
You fight with two.
You finish with three. pic.twitter.com/x76JO4zPqK— Charlie Garcia (@charliepgarcia) April 13, 2026
And this:
Images of food being served to sailors on the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Tripoli, published by USA Today.
Supplies "are going to get really low" and "morale is going to be at an all-time low," one sailor messaged his mother: https://t.co/di0KUEohvI pic.twitter.com/ZcuBNw1k8i
— Evan Hill (@evanhill) April 16, 2026
USA Today has corroboration of the short rations on board US ships but adds more about the collapse of mail delivery to said troops:
The U.S. Postal Service temporarily suspended mail delivery to 27 military ZIP codes after the United States and Israel attacked Iran. The Army said there is no end date in sight for the suspension, despite a ceasefire in the war.
The Postal Service and the Military Postal Service Agency have suspended deliveries as of the beginning of April “due to airspace closures and other logistical impacts from the ongoing conflict,” Maj. Travis Shaw, an Army spokesperson, told USA TODAY. Mail already in transit when the suspension took effect is being held in secure Postal Service or military facilities “for future delivery once service resumes,” he said.
The suspension is “in effect until further notice,” Shaw added. “Resumption of mail service is contingent upon the reopening of airspace by civil authorities, and the area commander’s evaluation of regional transportation and distribution stability.”
No mail is being “returned to sender” for those ZIP codes, Shaw said.
Wow, that’s beyond a material shortage and on to organizational collapse. Presumably involved with the panicked abandonment of multiple US bases in the region during the war.
The above point to the organizational and material weakness of the vaunted American military machine. I missed this WSJ story yesterday but Richard Wolff pointed it out on Nima’s show, but it points to a dramatic weakness on the U.S.’s part.
Senior defense officials have held talks about producing weapons and other military supplies with the top executives of several companies, including Mary Barra, chief executive officer of General Motors, and Jim Farley, CEO of Ford Motor, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The Pentagon is interested in enlisting the companies to use their personnel and factory capacity to increase production of munitions and other equipment as the wars in Ukraine and Iran deplete stocks.
Somehow team Trump decided to go to war before assessing its weapons stocks and securing supplies. How did the Department of Defense War come to this pass?
Oh yea, Greasy Pete Hegseth. Somehow he’s seen as the most vulnerable key player in Trump’s regime.
Which means people are watching for coups and counter-coups in the Pentagon, The Washington Post has a report alleging that “Republicans in Congress back Army secretary amid clash with Hegseth” (archived):
House Republicans on Thursday threw their support behind Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and lamented the recent ouster of the service’s top general, making a rare public break with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after his repeated clashes with senior Army leaders.
…
The rivalry between Hegseth and Driscoll dates to at least last spring, when a series of missteps by Hegseth fueled speculation within the Pentagon that President Donald Trump might replace him with Driscoll. Hegseth has since been cool in his public support for Driscoll, and others aligned with the defense secretary have questioned whether Driscoll is fully supportive of Trump’s agenda.
…
Thursday’s hearing occurred as tensions between Driscoll and Hegseth appeared to reach a crescendo this month after the abrupt ouster of (General Randy) George and two other Army generals, the latest in a string of senior military leaders who Hegseth has either fired or forced into retirement — often with little or no public explanation. While past defense secretaries have on occasion fired service secretaries with whom they disagree, Driscoll appears to be held in well regard at the White House and is a close friend and former Yale Law School classmate of Vice President JD Vance, officials have said.
While we’re talking about D.C. politics let’s look at the failure of American Democrats to pass a vote requiring POTUS Trump to get Congressional approval for his illegal war on Iran.
More Perfect Union broke the news: “The House just failed to pass a resolution to end Trump’s war with Iran by one vote. The count was 213-214. Just one Democrat, Jared Golden, voted to let Trump keep waging the war.”
And who’s this Rep. Jared Golden you may ask? AIPAC Tracker has the only data point needed:
— AIPAC Tracker (@TrackAIPAC) April 16, 2026
The NY Times had more deets on the vote:
Two Republicans again broke with their party: Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky was the only G.O.P. lawmaker to vote in favor of the resolution, while Representative Warren Davidson of Ohio, who previously backed a similar measure, switched his vote to “present,” declining to register a position. Representative Nancy Mace, Republican of South Carolina, who said she has “grave concerns” about the handling of the war, did not vote.
Mr. Davidson’s switch and Ms. Mace’s absence allowed Republicans to narrowly defeat the measure after three Democrats who had opposed an earlier version switched to supporting it: Representatives Greg Landsman of Ohio, Henry Cuellar of Texas, and Juan C. Vargas of California. Representative Jared Golden of Maine was the lone Democrat to vote against it.
The Times also quotes Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), the Republican chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee saying a re-do of the vote could “have a different vote count after 60 days, alluding to a May 1 deadline that falls 60 days after Mr. Trump formally notified Congress last month of the military operation in Iran.”
Our more credulous readers might enjoy this Axios report about the Democrats’ new strategy to force a daily War Powers vote.
Ken Klippenstein has an important reminder about the War Powers Act:
The War Powers Act amounts to theater for Congress to perform opposition to wars it invariably rubber stamps. This time it was Republicans, yes; but Democrats do exactly the same thing when they control the White Househttps://t.co/56jGVjvKTW
— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) April 16, 2026
Glenn Greenwald reposted a 2010 piece he wrote for Salon that is just as valid today:
This is what the Democratic Party does; it’s who they are. They’re willing to feign support for anything their voters want just as long as there’s no chance that they can pass it.
…
The primary tactic in this game is Villain Rotation.…the designated Villain constantly shifts, so the Party itself can claim it supports these measures while an always-changing handful of their members invariably prevent it.
In this case, the rotating villain was a lowly House member who’s not running for re-election. I wonder what he and his campaign consultants will do with all that hard-earned AIPAC money?
Now let’s switch up and cover some war-related tech news.
First up, Starlink, via Reuters:
Last August, U.S. Navy officials carrying out a test of unmanned vessels realized they had hit a single point of failure: Starlink. A global outage across Elon Musk’s satellite network affecting millions of Starlink users had left two dozen unmanned surface vessels bobbing off the California coast, disrupting communications and halting operations for almost an hour.
The incident, which involved drones intended to bolster U.S. military options in a conflict with China, was one of several Navy test disruptions linked to SpaceX’s Starlink that left operators unable to connect with autonomous boats, according to internal Navy documents reviewed by Reuters and a person familiar with the matter.
…
the Navy’s mishaps with Starlink for its autonomous drone program, which have not been previously reported, highlight the challenges of the U.S. military’s growing reliance on SpaceX and the risks it brings to the Pentagon.
And this NYT piece on Iranian hackers:
Iran has combined real-world attacks, disinformation and a mix of low-level and more advanced cyberattacks to create confusion in Israel. In the United States, it temporarily caused a global, companywide shutdown at a major medical-equipment supplier, Stryker, scoring a major success that surprised some security analysts.
A group affiliated with Iranian intelligence also took responsibility for the release of emails and photographs stolen from a personal account of Kash Patel, the F.B.I. director.
Now in the cease-fire, Iran is tactically shifting from overt demonstrations meant to undermine support for the U.S.-Israel campaign toward quieter efforts to prepare for what might come next. This new phase of cyberspace operations includes a greater focus on espionage.
Iran has continued to target individuals in the United States and Israel who are either government officials or linked to the government. Its hackers have also stepped up its efforts to penetrate critical infrastructure, attempting to get access to water and power systems in the Middle East and the United States as part of an effort to prepare for future operations that would cause societal pain…
I hope everyone is appropriately alarmed.
If not, here’s something that’s actually scary and much better sourced:
The global sulphur squeeze has transitioned from a theoretical risk to a direct catalyst for a production cliff.
From Indonesian nickel to DRC copper, the leaching chemicals that power the green transition are hitting a wall.
Reuters reports that Indonesia’s nickel…
— MINING.COM (@mining) April 16, 2026
I’ll be back tomorrow with another Iran War update.
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‘Bessent went on to accuse China of hoarding oil during the conflict (instead of helping stabilize global markets), limiting exports of certain goods, and continuing to buy large volumes of Iranian crude (historically over 90% of Iran’s oil exports, accounting for about 8% of China’s energy needs).’
I may be wrong here but I think that what Bessent is describing is actually a nation taking care of it’s own economic interests. The Trump regime does nothing but. Bessent talks about China not helping stabilize global markets but China could reply that blockading the world’s oil supply out of Hormuz is exactly that. And by ‘limiting exports of certain goods’ what he means is the refined rare earths that the US needs to build weapons with that can be used against China. Also, since when does China need the permission of Bessent to buy oil and from whom? In his own way, Bessent is just as bad as Hegseth. Just another dumba**.
Where’s Marco Rubio?
Alternatively: are US’s financial weapons more potent than precision guided munitions?
IIRC we are 49 days cumulative >10% daily reduction in global petroleum/petrochemical supply.
Imagine a dairy cow on a 10% restricted diet!
Imagine the “retail” price of said cow’s cream in another sixty days.
Time to short moo cows?
I don’t think he means just rare earths. I read that China has limited export of sulphuric acid, again to prioritize its needs over others. I suspect China is doing that with any product it thinks might be in short supply due to the Hormuz situation.
Imagine a community at the top of a mountain, with only one road in for supplies. Homeowner number one decides to blow up the road out of a fit of rage or perhaps stupidity. Homeowner two has wisely prepared for such an event by storing provisions of food, water, and ammunition.
Homeowner one accuses homeowner two of hoarding and failing to share his provisions with the others.
Bessent is homeowner one.
This is the timeless parable of the Little Red Hen.
Apart from being financed by AIPAC, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) has also served as chair of the right-wing Democratic “Blue Dog” caucus within the House of Representatives. In this role he received fulsome praise from Washington Post columnist Steven Pearlstein and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s Maya MacGuineas. Golden has also been a leading advocate of the Household Budget Analogy, i.e., the notion that the federal government, notwithstanding its currency-issuing status, ought to plan its budget as if it were “a hard-working American family sitting around its kitchen table trying to figure out its finances.”
Thanks for the extra info. Whatever will Golden’s constituents do after he retires from office (for what I presume will be a lucrative move into lobbying)?
They will probably elect an actual Republican. Any Democrat who wins that seat tends to vote with the Republicans most of the time, so what’s the difference? The entire Democrat party is filled with what are essentially Reagan Republicans now anyway.
Nothing will essentially change, as Dementia Joe and others have put it. At least until there are a few more warehouse fires and better aimed molotov cocktails – then maybe they’ll get the message.
I think I am correct is saying that my little state of Vermont has 2 senators and 1 representative and that NONE of them accept $$ from AIPAC
Unfortunately super-PACs often hide donors in a web of LLCs, probably why they exist. AIPAC is probably a master of this obfuscation. Google “AIPAC hiding behind LLCs” to learn about Elect Chicago Women and Affordable Chicago Now in the 2026 Democratic primary. Tip of iceberg, roaches under the carpet, etc.
I covered that stuff a little bit here. Illinois is one the most corrupt states in the US and they put on a bravura performance this Dem primary cycle.
Right Nat. Same probably in 26 Dem primary here around Durham NC, PACs too.
Does Maya MacGuineas buy her way onto venues where somebody interviews her like we should care what she has to say?
The insinuation: rank-choice-elected Mainer, Jared Golden, small-town college-educated enlisted US Marine sporting Celtic Cross and Devil Dog tattoos — is what? — an agent of Israel? The Jarhead from Maine. Does a guy who probably acquired mildbrain injury in Iraq and Afghanistan need to be bribed to understand how Israel feels right now?
All I’m saying is that the pervasive theory has AIPAC backwards. (A stands for American, and you’re proving their point.) AIPAC doesn’t have to ask Jared to change his vote. But there is WAY more money and influence in Tucker Carlson-style bigotry. Always has been.See: rich literature of hate pamphlets and John Bircher crack-pottery still in print.
Big picture: who deposits in Kushner’s and Witkoff’s coffers? It ain’t Israelis! But Israel is the perfect shrub behind which to hide self-interested skullduggery of sweeping proportions. Just how inept do you have to be to have your electoral asses handed to yourselves by a country of 10 million with no natural resources? Obsessions with who is a hidden Israel supporter is just the modern expression of ancient prejudice of peasantry. And it’s apparently still hard-wired into the heads of supposedly educated people.
I don’t think anyone was insinuating anything, just stating the obvious, observable facts.
Yes, that’s exactly what we are saying.
Is Israel paying you to make this comment?
If anything, Golden being a marine and “small town” college grad makes him MORE likely to put Israel First especially being an elected official from Maine!
I really wanna say, “YOU ARE RETARDED,” but since this is a family blog, I am going to refrain.
AIPAC is funded by the same globalist network of zionist oligarchs as Isreal. Israel is just one of many projects. There is certainly not more money in Tucker Carlson style bigotry, at least not insofar as it trickles down to congress.
And no one is hiding their support for Israel, although sometimes in (very) recent elections there are attempts made to hide support from AIPAC (again representing international zionist oligarch money not Israeli money per se).
And sometimes ancient peasants get tired of having it rubbed in our faces.
I agree but what is a “globalist”? The folks who support AIPAC are amoral, genocidal Zionist warmongers and perverted oligarchs.
When a country’s intel services are willing to traffic children in order to gain blackmail material on U.S. politicians and other highly influential people, they can punch above their weight.
Yes, but what does that say about US politicians and oligarchs?
Think it just confirms our suspicions. Catering to the crowd I guess.
Catering to the In Crowd?
It’s not an insinuation, and most of the biggest donors to Aipac are well known. They get what they pay for, anyone, other than someone who is being intentionally misleading can see that. At some point sure, Israel was the tail, but these days they’re definitely the dog, and America is the tail, which is super pathetic.
I hope that was heard in the departments of war and the
israeliforeign aid, as they most liken to a workshy, antisocial family with a printing press in the basement.They all knew the vote before it was held. They needed one to flip. Golden either volunteered or was offered a deal by the DN to do so. It’s all a game people.
It was performative in any case, given its DOA status in the Senate
Every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed is a good day for planet Earth and the longer it stays closed the better. If we’re lucky it will stay closed long enough to break the world’s addiction to petroleum. Even if the closure leads only to the elimination of plastic bags and food containers it would be a significant victory. People could learn to love glass bottles and butcher paper again.
Moving away from plastic would be difficult for many people, even traumatic, but it would be worth it just for our bodies to be rid of microplastics. Hang tough Iran. You are doing the world a great service.
Would it be so bad to use the same amount of plastics like we did in the 50s and 60s? Somehow they survived – and even thrived. And plastics were not a part of their bodies.
I have the sinking feeling that Terran human microplastics ‘contamination’ is cumulative.
The last paragraph of the admittedly “dumbed down” article cited below suggests that all is not well in Mudville.
“Once microplastics are taken up via phagocytosis, the cellular response can vary depending on the particle’s size and chemical composition. This engulfment can provoke a localized inflammatory reaction, marked by the release of immune signaling molecules like Interleukin-6 (IL-6). For particles that cannot be degraded, macrophages may transport them to local lymph nodes, sequestering the foreign material. This cellular isolation and inflammatory response manages the long-term presence of retained microplastics.”
See: https://biologyinsights.com/can-your-body-get-rid-of-microplastics/
So, alas and alack, comparing Terran human physiological states from the 1950s and 1960s with those of today is like comparing bright shiny crisp apples with dull squishy cankerous oranges.
As far as I can ascertain, no serious work on the physiology of micro and nano particles of plastic in the Terran human body has been done.
My worst case scenario is that it will require the present generations of plastics infused Terrans to die off to clear this questionable invader from the Terran faunosphere. In other words, the Jackpot. Even I am surprised at how quickly this hobby horse has grown legs.
Stay safe.
In writing my comment, I could not help but reflect that we all of us carry trace radioactivity from all those above ground nuclear tests over the decades. And that made me wonder if future archaeologist will be able to determine if any human remains found predate 1945 by their lack of radioactivity traces.
Wonder no more. May I introduce the Bomb Pulse?
Thanks for that. It is an interesting read.
That’s a positive take that I appreciate.
I find myself struggling with rage at the lowest humans on the planet – Wall Street. Morons who are bidding up paper trading instruments while the real world shortages get worse and worse … obviously, they’re counting on the scenario where the 1% still have ample supplies while the rest of us suffer.
Among other things, being closed leads to increased burning of coal so maybe not such a blessing.
Exposed as I am, imo, that’s the hard truth and we should be trying harder to embrace and promote it.
It would be nice to think this objective could be achieved in a more puposeful,civilised manner.
This way, there’ll be a big, bad bump in the road and then, if the same overclass survives, it’s back to business as usual.
For them, success and failure are equally poor teachers.
Looks like to reduce petrol and plastics use, many thousands in the global south will have to die. How many hundreds of thousands, or millions would be “worth the price”?
Laudable but in the short run we cannot make enough glass bottles to replace plastic ones or shorten meat distribution chains to local abbatoirs and butchers from centralised, national, meat packaging ones.
In the long run, we are all dead, but the short run can be pretty long too.
“the leaching chemicals that power the green transition are hitting a wall.”
Thank God this stupid bloody war has brought at least one benefit for mankind.
I’m hoping that it also blows a hole in the side of the AI “revolution” and sinks it permanently. Hard to build a fleet of AI server farms without copper, helium and sulfur in the manufacturing process.
Once again, Holy Mother Russia has shown the way. America will need to cannibalize domestic appliances to supply much of what the MIC will need to “Keep America Safe.” If anyone doubts that persistent AI surveillance and ‘management’ of opinion is not The American Way, I can helpfully guide you to your nearest local FEMA re-education campus.
It is all about priorities.
Good thing they can mine BWCA now. Both Helium and copper nickel there. No matter the risk to 2 watersheds including the largest lake in the world and the most visited canoe based wilderness area in the country.
We will now be the lucky ones to have forever leeching acid mine drainage at home! Courtesy of a foreign corporation. Thanks!
50-49.
Just to confirm, does ZOF abbreviate Zionist occupation force, which is Kit Klarenberg’s name for the IDF?
Yes, I will edit that for clarity.
Since IDF is Defence, I suggest Offense for the O. KK may disagree of course.
I went with “Israeli forces”
This might be an irrelevant and petty observation, given time and circumstances, but the term is awfully close to the ZOG (Zionist Occupation Government) usage by White Supremacist groups like the Aryan Nations and The Order in the 1980’s and ‘90’s.
It may be accurate, but don’t be surprised when AIPAC and the ADL point out the connection for their own propaganda purposes.
ZOG is a much older term. IIRC, it was first coined by members of the John Birch Society, or Birchers in the 1950s!
And The Fool spoke the truth to Lear. Unfortunately, the truth may come from the ritually impure. That’s why Koppel loved to put Farrakhan on. Because of motherships and white devils one could discount the facts of foreign policy and police brutality.
From past performance, the AIPAC and the dreaded ADL will ‘communicate’ such connections in public loudly and forcefully no matter their legitimacy or “reality.”
These entities are fully on board with the strategy of “The Big Lie.”
They play those cards constantly. Just unloaded another attack on Graham Platner. I expect it won’t work any better than the recent attempt to cancel Hasan Piker, which failed miserably.
In the 1990s I was wary of the anti-semitic flags you’re pointing out, but those days are long past. Died in Gaza with all the other pretenses of a moral center in the West.
Exactly. And I cannot wait to see our hierarchy of racism dismantled.
I think it’s more of an indication of how far Israel has fallen in the average persons eyes than it is a third rail to be avoided. They call themselves Zionists.
And it’s not just Bibi who’s hungry for Lebanonsraum:
Opposition, northern mayors decry imposed ceasefires as Lebanon truce declared (Times of Israel)
Subhead:
Ministers said to fume at only learning about truce from Trump’s announcement; Lapid, Liberman vow to remove Hezbollah threat when in government; Metula mayor says residents ‘betrayed once again
I watched a coupla interviews with ordinary Israelis on the street and they regretted these ceasefires as Iran and Hezbollah are still there. In other words they want the war to continue. Since the US is doing much of the heavy lifting I can see why. But do they even know how badly the IDF is being hammered by Hezbollah in the north? If this war is actually at an end, I can very easily see a narrative taking hold in Israel how they were on the verge of a great victory leading to a Greater Israel – but that they were “stabbed in the back” by the US who let them down so badly. In fact, I could also very easily see this narrative being exported to the US and spread by AIPAC and others like Lindsey Graham.
There was a piece on French radio this morning with interviews of Israeli civilians in the north and they were furiously yelling at the journalists about Bibi’s betrayal and abandoning the war effort. Like opening a door on madness. Very disturbing. I think that whole country has gone nuts with blood lust.
At the rate this conflict is progressing, I will not be surprised to eventually see video of Palestinian Resistance fighters blowing up the Star of David atop the Knesset building.
Something akin to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akM4kILRCoI
(NSFW – Not Safe For Woke)
In case you were wondering about the genocidal tendencies of the US of A and Israel:
https://theconversation.com/irans-cultural-heritage-in-the-crossfire-expert-explains-what-has-been-damaged-and-what-could-be-lost-278216
Bombing historic palaces, mosques, and other art.
Hmmm. Why am I reminded of Gaza, where the Israeli armed forces (using money from Uncle Same) bombed all of the universities and all of the mosques into dust?
Don’t forget that when Trump was in his first term, that he threatened to bomb every building of historic and cultural significance in Iran – a open and shut case of an international war crime if he had done it. The Iranians at the time were visiting those places to say goodbye to them but in the end Trump did a TACO-
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51014237
And Synagogues. Can’t forget them.
“Israel failed to take Bint Jbeil again. Just like 2006.” More resistance to IDF assaults in Lebanon.
https://x.com/WearForbidden/status/2044861912341463186
Not covered in US MSM.
IDF needs a ceasefire, which includes its ability to bomb Lebanese civilians for “self-defense”.
Exhibits:
1. The degradation of language. Or, and youse think (Chicago pronoun) Scott Bessent is dumb.
Hegseth: “Our forces are maximally postured to restart combat operations should this new Iranian regime choose poorly and not agree to a deal,” Mr. Hegseth said during a briefing to reporters at the Pentagon. “We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation and on your energy industry.”
Princeton, Harvard. I’m with good ole Confucius, calling for a rectification of names. The degradation of the English language is irksome, to say the least. When I think of “The Paper Nautilus” by Marianne Moore of “A Cold Spring” by Elizabeth Bishop, and they I have to have loads of babble forced on my by Hegseth.
I’m also with good ole Dr. Guillotine and his clever meat-slicing apparatus.
2. The lack of concern for the foot soldier / swabbie / the kid whose new at the office.
What the heck is oblong that’s vaguely purple and gray in the Xitter about Navy food? Is it beef tongue that has been boiled and then left out on the runway of an air-craft carrier? An army travels on its stomach, someone is known to have said.
Signals of an elite that is not serious and should be swept away by history any day now.
Merda. I can’t spell today.
When I think of “The Paper Nautilus” by Marianne Moore or of “A Cold Spring” by Elizabeth Bishop … and then I have to have loads of babble forced on me by Hegseth.
Among other typos.
Confucius is going to have it in for me.
The Sage is definitely going to tell you to Tao the line.
Wrong school of thought. Or, was it just a dream?
Sorry. I was instructed to adhere to the No Thought School. Which Radical Zennerz told me was a Lao-tse system to follow.
What, you don’t like “maximally postured”?
It got a chuckle out of me, I’ll say.
For a fleeting moment, this expression evoked in me vague associations with OnlyFans and pole dancing. Truly war p0rn.
Gyro meat. Ground beef and/or ground lamb mixed with spices and pressed into straps. Greek American. Shoild be grilled, fried or broiled. That piece looks like it was frozen for storage and only microwaved.
That’s my guess, but even so, those meat-like strips are the crapified, adulterated, Usian-ized abomination of a gyro. Real gyros look like this.
Post
Conversación
Seyed Abbas Araghchi
@araghchi
In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.
2:45 p. m. · 17 abr. 2026
https://x.com/araghchi/status/2045121573124759713
This would mean Hormuz open for next week on conditions set by Iran (I don’t know if this includes payments).
Looks like we are properly over just before the USA felt real pain. Damn shame but still a win for Iran, just not as big as they could have done.
Note that this might release some oil already loaded in ships and waiting in the Persian Gulf. I don’t have any idea how much there is. Restart oil production? That is another thing.
Brent now at 88,5$/Barrel
There will be some trouble in Asia as this works out and probably some inflationary pressures in USA but nothing that can’t be managed.
The destroyed infrastructure isn’t a big deal, don’t listen to the doomers.
You have obviously never been in an oil refinery, much less worked at one. They take years to build, and almost as long to rebuild. Notice, from what I’m reading, the damages to Persian Gulf refineries is not in the “repairable” category, but in the “needs to be fully rebuilt” category.
Now, what does Il Professore say?
We were in an oil supply glut before this all happened. The world is not at risk of losing oil in a meaningful way. About the only problem I see is LNG prices until the Qataris rebuild, but LNG isn’t a big deal and there’s plenty of it elsewhere.
Why is Naked Capitalism full of doomers???
This is predicated on Israel maintaining a ceasefire. I would assume it also means they have to roll back to pre war “borders” (although those details are not set yet).
We’ll see how long this lasts. It goes a long way for Iran looking reasonable, and if it falls apart now the world will not be looking to them as the proximate cause.
You are right we had a supply glut of 2 million per day before this started, and this hasn’t gone long enough to blow up the world economy yet.
We’ll see if the US can abide by the demands of Iran (no more bases, Iran gets a toll, Israel has to chill out) otherwise the ceasefire can expire and the strait is backed to being closed.
“Why is Naked Capitalism full of doomers???”
Because Doom is the most probable outcome of present events.
Oil fields cannot just be turned “Off” and then turned “On” again and reach pre disaster levels of production right away. The oil fields are managed quite closely when producing. To get the oil out of the ground, other fluids and chemicals are often injected to increase and regularize the flow. This balancing act is disrupted when enough wells connected to a field are closed in. Sometimes, production equal to pre disaster levels is never reattained. The underground dynamics change.
This oil supply disruption is world wide and so contains many unpredictable variables, generally political and economic.
Finally, Iran is in control of this world altering event, not America. The fallout from this realization entering the World Zeitgeist will be massive and long lasting. The American Empire has “officially” entered the terminal phase of its lifespan.
Have a well lubricated day.
Reply ↓
How do you come to that conclusion? The US is still massing for a major attack and most western nations are still blocked from using Hormuz.
> The US is still massing for a major attack
This is speculation based on troop movements. Do you have a TS/SCI clearance? If not your opinions don’t matter. There is no reason to attack now, especially because the “massing” you are talking about is not enough to actually do anything of substance.
> most western nations are still blocked from using Hormuz
Whether this is true or not, it will get resolved in the weeks ahead. Iran doesn’t want to crash the global economy either. Nobody benefits if nobody is getting paid. Simple as.
Hmmm…. I sense ill intent here.
“. Do you have a TS/SCI clearance? If not your opinions don’t matter.” At the very least, this constitutes an “Appeal to Authority.” Unfortunately. the authorities you appeal to have been caught lying repeatedly. Some ‘experts’ they turned out to be.
I would say “Have a nice day,” but that would be a White House Press Office level of truthful.
Oh brother way to dodge my point entirely. Talk about ill intent… the posters on this website never cease to amaze me 🤣
A final comment here; I sense that your “point” is to reinforce a failing Official Narrative.
As for “speculation,” I can state with near certainty that no one of us here or anywhere else on the Internet has the “inside dope” on what the thinking of this Administration is. So, point taken.
One bit of advice. Do watch your back as it were working for the crew of Pyrates and Rieverz. True Believers have a nasty habit of turning on their own minions when ‘sacrifices’ are needed to fulfil their Sacred Promises.
Stay safe.
It sounds like you hate it here. Why do you keep visiting if that’s the case? If you don’t hate it, maybe it would be a good idea not to antagonize the regular commenters here.
I really appreciate your view Simpleton. It’s why I come here to get thoughtful people pushing and improving ideas. I am more pessimistic due to Israel and the US not being agreement capable, but I’m glad you are making counter arguments.
I think it is 100% true the strait being closed hasn’t been a disaster yet. I have no doubt it could be given more time (don’t know the exact time)
I sense an abrupt shift in tone. Did something set you off?
I only have something to contribute occasionally — this is a very information-rich environment without me chirping. but I do read everything. — fortunately, most here are trying to figure things out.
I’m not afraid of being wrong. When I’m wrong, I learn something; when I’m right, not so much. Everyone should try it.
> Do you have a TS/SCI clearance? If not your opinions don’t matter.
: You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.
: 4) Insulting your hosts and fellow commentors
: hogging bandwidth
> Why is Naked Capitalism full of doomers???
: ad hominem attacks
> Iran doesn’t want to crash the global economy either. Nobody benefits if nobody is getting paid.
“Well, you figgered out somepin, didn’ you. Come right out of your own head.”
Simple as.
It’s not speculation. In this day and age it is not hard to see transport movements. You don’t need special clearance to do basic research. And when has Trump made reasoned decisions concerning Iran? As far as “enough substance”…like all his other tactics during this war?
All accounts say it is true and tolls will be enforced.
Feels like you are getting ahead of events.
I may be getting ahead of events, you’re right. It may all come crumbling down next week. That is not remotely the base case, though.
It has been confirmed that restrictions will apply.
US and aligned nations will not be welcome.
Nothing has changed.
Except the price of oil futures :)
Demand destruction.
A few days ago, Simpleton posited that Netanyahu and Trump would decide to end the war so they can return to making money. I think all commentariat responses (including mine) were skeptical, based on the absence of any evidence in the prosecution of the war to date or the movement of more forces into the region of this “grand strategy” on the US/Israel.
Agreed. This “person” seems to be adept at sowing discord through the injection of pseudo-logical ‘arguments’ that favour the Official Narrative.
A more skillful Hasbarist is my guess.
Stay safe.
Just because you willfully choose not to engage with my points does not make them pseudo-logical. I’m sorry to be the messenger that bursts the geopolitical bubble you are living in.
In case it isn’t clear: Free Palestine
Your arguments boil down to logical fallacies, demanding people do your research when you make a point, dismissing (counter)arguments by making up barriers that you know the person you are replying to can’t meet while ignoring you shouldn’t be posting at all since you don’t meet those barriers either.
In short you are here to disrupt, misinform, gaslight, troll, and the whole caboodle of other rhetorical tricks done by the people, or most of the time the people they hire, to stop discussions outside of the narrative they approve.
Agreed. It very much looks like some of the posts I’ve seen on twitter.
I’m going to stop feeding the trolls now.
I concur.
You’re right I did post that.
And guess what? It’s coming true… 🤦
Nope. Check the lates updates.
I’m not clear on the practical implications of this; few commercial shippers are going to go dance in the street without certainty in regards to security. Until there’s some “final” peace agreement, the situation is very fluid.
And rumors of another negotiation this weekend abound. Hard to parse what’s really happening.
We do know one thing, it’s friday and market go up
Trump just announced that the blockade on Iranian ships persists. by his TS messages. Whether this is true or not I can’t see. Yes the situation is fluid.
Also, while Iranian and Chinese-flagged “Shadow fleet” vessels are not concerned with Western insurance, given the fluidity, I cannot see Western insurance companies changing their view based on a tweet – it was not Iran that “closed” the straits – it was the insurance companies. QED Iran cannot “open” the strait – that must be by the insurance companies.
Iran will collect its toll, routing schedule will be “coordinated”.
Tied to Lebanon ceasefire, already IDF defensive shelling….
Will the Lloyds insure?
Trump’s ceasefire ends 20 April?
Wait? That would be too funny if true. 4/20?
To steal a trope from “South Park,” Trump has Tegridy!
Fo’ tweny? Yeah man! They need to smoke the peace pipe with some high grade and mellow out man
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-DZdZIMhAk
This is, on one level, the Iranians being fair — Usreal finally backs up a little, Iran backs up a little. Or at least wanting to seem like they’re being fair.
But as other posters have said, there’s not a lot of practical effect — any ships that can and would try Iran’s “coordinated route” would get caught in the US blockade, and vice-versa. I do suspect Araghchi understands this and a is poking US a bit.
And yes, the remaining period of *which* ceasefire?
I think this from Larry Johnson is worth passing on
So for all our musings over the latest developments this vehicle is careening out of control and somebody needs to grab the wheel. The foreign policy types all see it as part of the Great Game and the Democrats see it as chance to crush the Repubs and the Israelis see it as their chance to finally turn the US into their “proxy” rather than vice versa.
Crooke talks about this in his latest video which is with Joe Lauria.
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/war-and-deception
He says Greater Israel was always the plan but they had to wait until their US sponsor was sufficiently compliant–or in this case senile.
Carolinian:
Let’s not forget a certain cultural and political problem in the U S of A? Two presidents in a row who are senile and non compos mentis?
https://www.axios.com/2023/07/10/biden-temper-us-president
And watching that squib of Hillary Clinton at the recent Munich Warmongers Conference, in which she kept repeating, inflict pain, inflict pain, inflict pain, I’d say that she’s losing her marbles, too.
None of this is a good sign for USanians and the likelihood of USanians being able to save Our Democracy.
Our entire political class needs to be ejected but given the huge costs–by design perhaps–needed to run for office what normal person is going to step up? Mr. Smith is even less likely than in the 1930s movie to successfully go to Washington.
It looks like it will take Nemesis to finally defeat Hubris. Gonna be a bumpy ride.
I’m glad you included that I was waiting for the Barnes interview to drop to go into it. That and I had to rewrite the post to include Johnson’s later update and take out all the quotes from his previous email that were (apparently excessively) skeptical about the ceasefire in Lebanon not including Hezbollah.
Barnes is a Vance partisan. They’re trying to create a narrative that absolves not only MAGA but Vance in particular of blame for supporting a cretin like Trump. They’ve tried a few other strategies that have not stuck–including the classic “if only the tzar knew the truth!” and “the tzar’s being misled by his advisors!”
They’re moving on to: “Our tzar was so great and strong. What has happened to him? Woe is us! The infirmities of age! We do not recognize our great tzar! A tragedy is life!”
These politicians around Trump are classic opportunists and careerists–they have fidelity to power alone. Only such empty suits, Vance included, could cling to the Trump presidency and try to get as much demon’s milk from his thorny teat as possible. Now the little goblins are finding the milk’s rather bitter.
On to a new teat.
As I indicated late yesterday evening on the Iran War daily post, this could not possibly be more concerning, especially with the current global instability initiated by the Trump administration itself. If it’s really the case that Trump is entering dementia, Is an Article 25 authorized intervention at least being seriously considered?
It could possibly be more concerning. The declining American Empire is malign, a force for evil; I couldn’t be more thrilled that an incompetent, addled leadership is at the helm; the last thing we need is a soporific Obama-clone soothing things.
Trump is not anomalous because he’s a murderous tyrant; they’ve all been murderous butchers for decades; he’s an anomaly for being a boorish, erratic clown that embarrasses the shit out of Professional Managerial Caste with his vulgarity.
Capitalism with the fig leaf ripped off; I love it — give me Elagabalus over Marcus Aurelius any day!
Some very bad stuff can happen with an empire declining chaotically, especially when that empire is nuclear capable as ours is, even if there’s dark comedy in the process.
Another intersting compilation of news, especially from Israel, put together by Crooke, which is quite informative about the cease-fire negotiations in Iran and Lebanon: https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/what-happened-in-islamabad-regarding
Crooke’s sources say that Netanyahu asked Trump for another week in Lebanon–post ceasefire–to improve his re-election chances. So hundreds of people in Beirut were murdered for his campaign stunt. He should not only be in prison but perhaps also on the new Israeli death row meant for untermenschen Arabs.
Congresscritters were rightly voicing concerns about Trump to the point of mentioning the 25th amendment after his deranged “end civilization” tweet. Then we have a ceasefire and those public concerns seem to completely have disappeared.
The important question IMHO is, Who’s wielding the autopen?
When I was in the (US) Navy (>30 years ago), mail was holy; the military bragged how even front-line soldiers in WWII got mail at least weekly. This is the electronic age, and people have been trying to “privatize the post office” for four decades, so the crapification is not unexpected, but, there are no adults left in charge of anything.
Ships do not need to go into port to replenish supplies, there is “Underway Replenishment” (UNREP), where ships sail side-by-side and trade supplies with wires strung between the ships. It is certainly dangerous, but is a routine operation. You can’t UNREP when you’re being shot at; also, the supply ship actually has to have the supplies. With all bases in that area uninhabited because Iran blew them up, the supplies have to come from far away. I’d like to think the enormous airlift is food, but it’s probably just bombs/bullets/missiles.
The crazy thing is, this anecdote about the US Navy not having supplies is precisely what is happening across planet earth, for many, if not most, if not all, products, except it’s not obvious yet. “Localized Shortages” is going to be the Word of the Year.
I thought that armies and navies start mutinying when food gets bad. Those meals look grim.
Sometimes soldiers can put up with a lot. The Mongols of the Yuan dynasty, despite having Chinese tenants, were required to be self sufficient when garrisoning their empire which often resulted in them needing to sell off their lands, property, possessions and even family members just to procure the supplies needed. Attempts by the Mongol court to rectify this were too slow and not really effective. This was a factor in the fall of the Yuan but still took a decent amount of time to achieve. Americans will probably not get to that point since they have not really dealt with hardships like that but who knows?
Really off topic but since you bring it up, can you recommend any literature on the Yuan dynasty, like where you got this information? I’ve been looking into them lately as part of an effort to make more sense of world history (China in particular has long been interesting to me, but seems more and more important to understand, the way things are going…).
For the official written imperial histories (usually compiled by the dynasty that succeeded it, so keep in mind the bias. So in the case of the book of Yuan, it was written by the Ming dynasty that emerged as a peasant rebellion at the end of the Yuan dynasty, much in the same way that the book of Ming was written by the succeeding Qing dynasty. Ironically, there is not yet an official Qing dynasty book), I think this site seems decent:
https://ctext.org/wiki.pl?if=en.
It has alignment of the Chinese text with an English translation underneath for most of the imperial history books.
The specific passage was here (https://ctext.org/wiki.pl?if=en&chapter=2597397) in volume 134 of the Book of Yuan:
“In the seventh year of Dade, he was appointed Jiayi Dafu, Zongguan of Dadu Lu, and concurrently served as Fu Yin (Governor) of Daxing Fu. He governed officials and the people with skill, and on his spare days, he straightened streets and marked out lanes. He also worked especially hard to promote construction projects at the National Academy. In a short time, he was promoted to Tongyi Dafu and Tongqian Shumi Yuan Shi (Deputy Director of the Council of Military Affairs). He submitted a memorial stating: “The Mongol troops stationed in Shandong and Henan, when ordered to garrison Gansu, must travel ten thousand miles. The expenses for their luggage, saddles, and horses are all borne by themselves. Each time they are mobilized, they have to sell their farmland and property; in extreme cases, even their wives and children.” Those on garrison duty have not yet returned, while replacements are about to be dispatched. This cycle continues without end, and the hardship grows increasingly severe. “Now that there is peace along the borders, it is truly unwise to exhaust military strength in this manner. I respectfully request that troops stationed near Gansu be used for garrison duties instead.” “Furthermore, the former troops from Shandong and Henan who were on garrison duty should be compensated by the government for their farmland, property, and families sold in order to provide some relief.” The emperor issued an edict approving his proposal. Not long after, he was transferred to serve as Canyi (Counselor) of the Zhongshusheng. He assisted in decision-making on important affairs with precision and keen insight. Anyone seeking official positions who had advanced through other channels was not appointed at all, which earned widespread praise from public opinion at the time.”
I haven’t reviewed it fully but I heard the Cambridge History of China series is decent, however the romanization for most of them still uses the old Wade-Giles system which may be confusing when you try to look up the pinyin names today. I’ve also heard good things about the Harvard University Press History of Imperial China series. Both should series should cover the main imperial histories, including the Yuan
Thank you! The Cambridge History of China was already on my list, since I liked other Cambridge History series, but I hadn’t heard of Harvard.
My two basic sources on Chinese history are Cambridge History of China (18 volume set, very expensive, and I haven’t read it much since grad school–because I don’t have the books, obviously, except a few volumes that I was able to get via a friend in Taiwan who, for reasons unknown to me, can get them rather cheaply, and a series of dynastic histories from Harvard U Press-Belknap (6 volume set–Yuan and Ming are in the same volume.) which is much cheaper to get. Both are excellent general histories with good references on more specific topics.
ps. oh, I see that Leaf beat me to these. I should add thst Cambridge Econ history of China series is quite good.
Yeah, but you need the calories to do a day’s hard labor. Those photos are showing enough calories pure and simple.
argh! “not enough calories pure and simple”
40 odd years ago the standard menu in GI chow halls was 4000 calories if you ate the 3 squares. Based on training infantry.
Obviously airmen and sailors need less.
But…
What would Napoleon say?
You don’t need to do a provable, prosecutable mutiny if it is enough to flush some socks in the loo or place a burning cigarette in a strategic logation in the laundry room to force the ship to a friendly harbour.
Not Caesar’s armies…
It takes around 73 C-17 flights to transfer a Patriot system to Israel…..
https://www.twz.com/air/it-took-73-c-17-loads-to-move-patriot-battalion-from-pacific-to-middle-east
which obviously would be more important than ordinance or A/D for US ships (or food)
Can’t Hegseth or Trump perform some kind of loaves and fishes miracle? /sarc
IF they did, they and their cronies would hoard it all for themselves and let the multitudes starve. Kinda like what they are doing in Cuba and elsewhere with starvation-siege warfare
‘Evan Hill
@evanhill
Images of food being served to sailors on the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Tripoli, published by USA Today. Supplies “are going to get really low” and “morale is going to be at an all-time low,” one sailor messaged his mother’
Sailors can’t get by on that amount of calories. Not if they are expected to put in a hard day’s work. Are there going to be scurvy outbreaks soon on US Navy ships? Those aren’t even half rations as seen by those empty slots in those trays. I have no idea what that big long thing is unless it is the shingle that the s*** next to it goes on. The worse of it is that they have chopped off all mail from their families which means keeping them incommunicado. Is it so that they don’t hear what is going on at home? Are those swabbies even allowed emails? You’d think that they could have loaded up all that mail aboard that carrier group heading to the Gulf. Nope. Too hard. I wonder how many of those sailors are swearing not to re-up when their time comes. It all reminds me. I seem to remember how the British fleet that beat off the Spanish Armada was treated. That they were kept at sea as Queen Eliz did not want to pay them out and subsequently a lot of them starved to death at sea.
Looked like a single piece of gyro to me.
Looks like a boiled condom to me. Attempting to eat it would require some mental fortitude.
To be completely fair. The Daily Navy channel fairly recently posted a 20 minute video showing details of life aboard a modern carrier – food, sleeping quarters, bathing, laundry, and so on. Very informative, actually, here is the link (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0JBCriPfpU). But in the “food” section, they made a point of emphasis in that it is provided on a first-come-first-serve basis. So in the example they used, for breakfast, which runs from 6 AM to 9 AM, in theory there are donuts and sweet rolls, but “these disappear quickly”.
So it is just possible that the photos of the half-empty food trays in question represent what the sailors who queued up late for a particular meal get, not the statistically average meal received by the statistically average sailor.
That said, the same video also stated that under normal operations, a carrier has to take resupplies of food literally every 7-10 days, transferring 400-700 thousand pounds of foodstuffs. Which implies, by the way, that ship stores are extremely limited, basically two weeks at full, which kind of makes sense given the amount of stuff that needs to be crammed into the thing.
And that, in turn, is just a great way to run a popsicle stand in the event of an actual conflict, when a 7-day resupply cycle just might not always be observed.
…
Parenthetically, they also had a thing on the ship’s laundry rooms (which are so efficient, many sailors prefer to hand-wash their kit so as not to lose it). But one interesting bit of info is that the temperature in the laundry compartment, which is below the waterline, by the way, “regularly hits 120-135 degrees Farenheit”, which is only 48-57 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, I kept thinking – so you have dry air (because of the industrial driers), 50+ degree Celsius air temperature, a bunch of dry kindling like lint and things…yeah. I could definitely see the place having a fire issue, at least potentially.
…
Parenthetically, part two, per that selfsame video, and I quote, “some sailors work for weeks without seeing sunlight”, i.e. their entire life is below decks. Now that cannot possibly be a good thing for morale during a stressed deployment…
I presume smart people will have reasons why Iran has opened the straight for well to me a terrible cease fire agreement in Lebanon. What does Iran get? It doesn’t appear that the US /israel are done with them and they are certainly not to be trusted. I can’t believe Trump and BIBI walk away and leave Iran alone.
And notice the shift in the media US government that the war is now including China.
Col Wilkerson said this would happen many weeks/months ago.
As simple as this. The moment Israel breaks the ceasefire Iran will blame Netanyahoo as they close again. A trap for Netanyahoo?
They’re ALREADY breaking the ceasefire.
Could this be that Iran is just going to rugpull the west because they know Israel won’t stop?
Most likely.. From what I can recall, Israel never observes a “ceasefire”.
Iran knows the US will backstab (they continue to send forces and always betray during peace) but has to pretend as the world is being destroyed and it doesn’t want the world to blame it for that destruction. The US and Israel are going to get the lions share of the blame for the famine and depression that will come.
Are we clear on whether or not they’re still charging the toll? That would seem to be a huge point at issue.
Don’t know, and then Trump announced blockade of Iranian ships. What is real what is not it is difficult to see.
Maybe instead of the toll, the Trump Admin is going to let Iran take a cut of the profits from front-running the capital markets in the US? :) Prob much more profitable and less overhead/administration required! :)
One assumes they get the prize status of “Agreement Capable”. One might also say it does not cost them much. The inventory disruption is now inevitable. Further closing of the Straits will make it worse, even if it is opened temporarily now.
So maybe we should think of it as a temporary opening just like the US’s temporary ceasefire.
It’s a 10-day ceasefire, with Hezbollah included. Iran just stated that Hormuz is open for the duration of this ceasefire. But ships must go through the IRGC-approved route (presumably near one of its islands)
Keep in mind that Iran actually agreed to this opening of Hormuz on April 7th for a period of 2 weeks, in accordance with the 2-week ceasefire that both sides agreed on. What was agreed upon on April 7th was complease ceasefire, including Lebanon, and Hormuz would be opened. But Israel kept attacking Lebanon, so Iran said they are violating the terms of the ceasefire and thus Hormuz would be kept closed.
So in reality, Iran is simply fulfilling what it said it would do on April 7th.
It’s pretty much impossible to get a clear view on what exactly is happening right now through the media right now, but my impression is:
1. All vessels are still passing through the Iranian tollbooth so they probably have to pay a toll. Ships were passing through before too so the “opening” really only applies to ships tied to “hostile” countries. Who knows how many of them will actually try it though.
2. For ceasefires in general, I think it’s pretty clear the Iranians (rightly) judge that time is on their side regardless of pauses. In fact, they arguably wear down the US & Israel more during pauses. Immediate fighting can be sustained by stockpiles in the theater, but during pauses, it’s purely about who has better replenishment & rebuilding. Iran is probably at least an order more efficient at that, both in military and civilian terms, and that’s even before considering the US has to ship everything into the theater.
3. There’s also the fact that most of the US power structure is crashing out more every day. Even as US/Israeli demands become more and more unhinged, their actual ability to effect or compel anything decreases, and they alienate the rest of the world even more.
4. The only real question to me is what happens if the Israelis try “digging in” at some of their positions in Lebanon, but I expect Hezbollah and its allies have a plan for that.
I recommend Iran implement a sliding scale toll based on Evilness (or genocide – Hey europe – you are complicit and per the Geneva convention that makes you guilty).
FWIW This X account with 25K followers and posting in Persian says:
A shorter, less specific version of this has also been posted by DD Geopolitics. Additionally, heard that Trump is still claiming the war is back on when the ceasefire ends on Tuesday unless a deal he likes is reached.
If true, no real change to shipping will occur. Seems like an attempt to squeeze one last massive profit run out of the markets.
Iran must see US treachery as imminent in which case it’s a good PR move
Goooooood Mooooooorning Fiatnam!
The platoon was used to 3 squares a day, and thank goodness we weren’t in the USN, as they got 3 squares a day in the guise of a mostly empty plate.
they’re getting three empty squares per meal if the pictures of those trays are to be believed.
“The Lord, in his goodness and equity, delivers all things to each in his own time, therefore, the poor have their ice in the winter, and the rich, their ice, in the summer. Selah!”
Chas Freeman, on Dialogue Works, suggested the treaty governing the Dardanelles be studied as a model for eventual negotiation of a treaty giving Iran (and Oman) management responsibility for the strait. He said that after expressing concern that the Hormuz crisis will lead to similar issues at other choke points like the straits of Malacca or Taiwan, and argued that the wellbeing of the entire world is at stake.
The lack of skilled diplomats in the West will not make this easier.
Lots of other good stuff in that discussion.
I love Amb Freeman and will have to catch up on his latest appearances. YouTube isn’t the most time efficient way to get information. Thank AI for those instant transcripts.
> EXPERIMENTS WITH THE TANGORA 20,000 WORD SPEECH RECOGNIZER. [1986]
> From Speech to Text: The Evolution of Transcription Technology
> Very recent transcription of the name of Houston Rocket’s Alperen Şengün = ‘Sen Goon’.
> Showing that AI will alter content:
: Google Just Patented The End Of Your Website
:: if it decides the page won’t perform well enough for a specific user, replaces it with an AI-generated version assembled on the fly. The user never sees what your team built
U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/iran-us-deal-20-billion-frozen-funds-uranium
Slump in voters’ support for Israel shakes US consensus over military aid
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/17/slump-in-voters-support-for-israel-shakes-us-consensus-over-military-aid
A fragile calm in Lebanon as a US-brokered truce holds and families head home
https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-united-states-e0412bb734d09aef492051c1730b5821
US military fully withdraws from Syria after 10 years
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-military-fully-withdraws-syria-after-10-years
Europe-led coalition prepares mission to reopen Strait of Hormuz
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/04/17/europe-led-coalition-prepares-mission-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz
Netanyahu was warned twice that Qatari cash was funding Hamas military wing – reports
https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-reportedly-warned-twice-that-qatari-cash-was-funding-hamas-military-wing/
Germany prepared to send minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-signals-readiness-to-send-minesweeping-vessels-to-the-strait-of-hormuz/
Great headstart on tomorrow’s piece. Thanks much.
Also the thought of a European led coalition going up against the Iranians, ROTFLMAO
But the reps from 40 countries will have some wonderful food while discussing such in Paris.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY, UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger! President DJT
‘Scoop: U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran’
The US really wants that enriched uranium. They have already refused the idea that it be transferred to Russia for them to hold. And how would the US pay the $20 billion for that uranium if Iran agreed? All financial links have been cut and sanctioned. Will they use cryptocurrency? But if Iran did agree, they should be smart and make sure that that money went through and was cleared before delivering any uranium. But no accepting $20 billion in cash. Too great a chance that Trump & Bessent would send mostly counterfeit currency. Hey, just had a idea. Trump could give China that $20 billion and the Chinese could send it in Yuan after conversion. Trump would be thrilled by that idea.
Re: Klippenstein’s tweet pointing out that the War Powers Act is performative opposition theater for Congress: That’s okay, voting for Representatives and Senators is performative theater for the citizenry’s ritual enactment of “democracy” or “representative” government. It’s all “let’s pretend” from the bottom up and the top down.
excellent (and painful point). And then there are Trump’s attempts to control the election results which have been proceeding apace.
Sad but true. When we have rampant lawlessness, no more “checks and balances”, constitution ignored, no one in high places held to account, legalized political bribery, support of genocide, war crimes, kleptocracy, and in-your-face corruption where the emperor and his family personally pocket billions I think any notion of “democracy” has been reduced to farce. We might as well just sell political offices to the highest bidder, it would be more transparent and honest than the farce we have now
How much should the starting bids be for House rep, senator and pres?
Yes. Fixating on elections (democracy) as being the key to good governance is a belief borne of a sort of indoctrination. Voting may be a part of forming a good government, but it certainly doesn’t guarantee such a thing. Lately I’ve been pondering the inability of people to see a government that isn’t structured in a top-down way with a single individual at the top — perhaps it’s a lack of imagination?
There are no guarantees as the founders well understood. But people just voting as individuals is a fairly recent concept, I think. People are most effective voting as a bloc. Early America had political clubs. AARP is one modern example of an interest group that has some political clout because of its ability to get seniors to call or write Congress and show up to vote. Unions used to play a similar role.
Going to events organized by the DNC (pink hats, no kings) is not that any more than tea party events were.
Voting in U.S. is like sending your Christmas wish list to AIPAC.
Yes, it’s only ‘our democracy’ from the elite perspective, they own it. Why not? They bought it.
Only way for the rest of us to get it back is the French example.
‘Enough Is Enough’: Trump Announces US has Forbidden Israel From Bombing Lebanon Any Longer
https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/trump-says-israel-prohibited-from-bombing-lebanon-any-longer-11372502/amp/1
Donald Trump prohibits Israel from continuing attacks on Hezbollah | The Jerusalem Post
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-893371
Nod nod, wink wink
The fact that the US Treasury is issuing threatening letters to Chinese banks should dispel any notions that this is specifically Trump’s war. Don’t ignore the men behind the curtain.
It seems so infantile though. Threatening your own Bond investors. Scott B. has form for sure, as do all the Trump Admins.
I liked the comment that it helps those of us getting high interest rates. I’m staying in for now, profiting from Scott’s malfeasance, and my own nation’s coming downfall? OK, why not. It seems pretty mean to me in return.
More on Hezbollah’s efforts from Electronic Intifada here.
About halfway in, there are several clips from what they are saying are Hezbollah drones. If this footage is accurate, Hezbollah is far from disarmed and doing some serious damage. Crazy seeing how those things operate – I don’t know what anyone could do to stop them. Looks like they are rapidly assembled from cheap parts and they can take out heavy vehicles or a group of IDF terrorists without too much effort.
I don’t know either. I saw a video some weeks back where the drone turned back around in the opposite direction in flight and flew right inside a structure. I think that being on edge doesn’t even begin to describe it. Being in battle nowadays must be completely mind-breaking.
RE: Congressman Golden’s vote for more war
Jared Golden is abruptly not seeking re-election. He’s a D in a mostly R district who likely voted for more war at the behest of AIPAC.
Reposting this from @Ripplebrain. What are everyone’s thoughts?
Let’s take a step back and consider the bigger picture.
Strategic goals on day one of the war:
• Israel: eliminate Iran and Hezbollah as threats to Israel
• Iran: survive, deter future aggression
Fast forward to today, six weeks in, and it’s obvious the Israeli war effort has failed. Their ideal state for Iran is Balkanization, or a second Syria, unable to mount any cohesive efforts against Israel. But the Iranian state remains stable, the regime change attempts failed. The IDF again failed to do more than push a few miles into Lebanon. Whatever the Israelis were attempting to do to destroy Hezbollah with the cooperation of the Lebanese government also seems to have failed. And Hezbollah seems much stronger than anyone assumed before this conflict.
The Israeli ability to achieve these goals hinged on sucking the US into maximal commitment in war against Iran. A second GWOT would have been ideal, with the US bogged down in Iran for years or even decades. At the moment, this too seems to have failed.
While Iran has suffered substantial damage to its infrastructure, its government has survived. But what about its second goal, deterrence? Here’s how things have changed since the start of this conflict:
• US bases in the Gulf region have been largely abandoned, many have suffered heavy damage (“uninhabitable” according to the NYT). The US has completely withdrawn from Syria and mostly withdrawn from Iraq. This is an unprecedented retreat.
• The US radar network that protects Israel and the Gulf states has been mostly destroyed
• Iran has demonstrated that it’s both able and willing to light the region on fire and blockade it if threatened
• They’ve also demonstrated that their state is strong enough to withstand a major air US campaign
• The passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced from a 21mi wide corridor to one that’s only ~3mi wide, between Larak and Qeshm. This makes future closures of the strait trivial. Even a small team of a few dozen IRGC personnel can now shut off 20% of global oil flows
• The broader political balance in the region is now up in the air. The GCC has suffered enormous economic damage. A new security architecture may emerge in response to this, possibly one that favors Iran
This is an improved position for Iran as compared to before the conflict, which is remarkable. They’ve made it clear that there’s no reasonable path to the US/Israeli strategic goals. Continuing the air campaign or some kind of limited land invasion won’t move the needle. If the air campaign didn’t work before, it’s even less likely to work now.
Now that we’re in a period of diplomacy, the Iranians are attempting to secure the long-term consolidation of their gains. They also stand a chance of extracting some incredible concessions:
• International acceptance of a toll regime on the strait
• The lifting of (some) sanctions
• Unfreezing of billions in Iranian funds (most of which are currently stored in Qatar)
• Normalization of relations with various states in Europe and Asia
If the Iranians play this game correctly, they can achieve some or all of these things while suffering no casualties (this is the power of diplomacy). The key to this is driving a wedge, no matter how minor, between the US and Israel. By refusing to compromise on a ceasefire in Lebanon and linking the status of the strait to that ceasefire, the Iranians seem to have done this. They need to make it clear that an Israeli violation of the ceasefire will result in the closure of the strait. This will ensure that the US continues to exert pressure on Israel to maintain the ceasefire.
Exploiting this wedge is Iran’s path to the long-term attrition of Israel. This conflict has brought the contradictions in the US/Israeli relationship to a head in an unprecedented way.
So while the “fog of peace” remains largely impenetrable, don’t expect the Iranians to go around signaling as loudly as possible that they’ll be imposing tolls on the strait going forward. This may be their intention, but they’re more likely to achieve it if they come to an agreement with the US behind the scenes and give Trump a way to sell it to the American public. They also might be willing to negotiate on it in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. The Iranian state and people will be best served by a peace in which they can extract the most concessions with the least cost to themselves. They’re playing a delicate game, and the victory they could achieve here would have been almost unimaginable for most just two months ago.
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2045153304087237094
I disagree that we are in the period of diplomacy. The US is still massing forces in the region. It is not clear the “ceasefire” between Israel and Lebanon is actually in force. And Trump is still unhinged on his version of twitter.
While I agree Iran is in a good position to realize many of its goals as stated in their 10 point plan, the problem is larger than just Israel. It’s also Trump’s ego and his current mental state.
As far as Iran and tolls are concerned, it’s never been “signaling as loudly as possible”, so I’m not sure what you mean by this part. And Iran has already made it clear they are no longer willing to play the game which will help Trump in claiming victory. Lifting of sanctions is a core demand so i don’ see why they would change their approach like it was some type of favor from the US.
In any case, I think this is all for naught. Trump will most likely launch a final, massive attack of some sort thinking he can then declare victory and go home. But unless the US gives in, they will not be “going home”.
Larry Johnson (this morning on Dialog Works with Larry Wilkerson) was convinced that the US is about to attack Iran, probably this weekend.
Iran declares Strait of Hormuz ‘open’ – Telegraph
Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, said that the Strait would be “completely open” to all commercial vessels for the remaining period of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which expires on April 26.
…
Mr Trump insisted that the US would maintain a military blockade of the waterway until a permanent deal was brokered, but Iran said this would represent a ceasefire violation and the opening would be considered “null and void”.
….
Senior Iranian officials indicated that vessels planning to transit the Strait would need to be “coordinated” with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy.
Another official suggested that vessels would still require permission to sail through the passage, which would undermine a key US demand.
Meanwhile, a US Navy advisory also said the sea-mine threat in the waterway is “not fully understood” and recommended all vessels avoid the Strait.
The fog of peace or war is very thick. Doesn’t look like ships are moving at Marine Traffic.
The Iranian declaration is clever: the Straits are open as long as US and, more importantly, Israel behave. Since nobody really expects that Israel certainly and US probably will behave, the Straits likely remains functionally closed because they (or their insurance) won’t take the chance. So the only way to reopen the Hormuz is to work out some durable peace framework that US and Israel can’t violate at their leisure without consequences.
I am skeptical that this will be achievable without one last charge. However, I don’t think it’ll be the US that initiates it: if something happens, it’ll be Israel in Lebanon, basically daring Iran to do something. I doubt the US transports are bringing in “usable” ground troops–more likely, material for an air campaign “in response” to Iranian response to Israeli provocation. This will force a choice on Iranians: do they punish only Israel or launch a general attack again.
Re: from your included yesterday’s post quote:
“Bessent revealed that two Chinese banks have already received formal letters from the US Treasury. The letters state that if the banks are found processing Iranian transactions, they face the risk of secondary sanctions. He declined to name the banks. This comes alongside broader Treasury letters sent to financial institutions in China, Hong Kong, the UAE, and Oman.”
China has already dropped its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since 2008. It continues to be a net seller of US Treasuries. Not sure what stick Bessent thinks he has.
He has a stick alright and it’s up his…(sorry to be so crude but…)
I wasn’t aware “Ukraine” has been hitting that many Russian tankers. The strategy that Medhurst describes, if it’s really being carried out intentionally, I’d guess could rack us up some blowback one day. Hope and pray it doesn’t get the Russian people too riled up.
https://consortiumnews.com/2026/04/16/watch-cn-live-the-pirate-state/
Medhurst’s assessment is pretty interesting. I remember when US pharma cos came out with their C19 vaxes and the insanely extortionate prices (imo) they were charging charging other countries and signing contracts requiring other countries to put up embassy grounds and ports and other seriously expensive infrastructure as collateral against possible law suit losses.
At the time, some serious people suggested the US was using this as a pivot from the petrodollar to the vaxdollar, so to say. I don’t know if that was ever true. When it turned out the vax didn’t work as well as advertised the ability to charge huge sums faded away.
(I’d still like to know what was in Ursula’s now deleted text messages re purchases of same.)
If Medhurst is right, it sounds like the US is determined to keep the petrodollar alive by any means necessary. / my 2 cents.
Glenn Greenwald’s “villain rotation” analysis is spot on. I first picked up on that in the early 1970s, during the Vietnam War, when similar issues would always “lose” by one or two votes, with the results rigged in advance. I’ll never forget one instance when one Congress Cretin “forgot” how he had been told to vote, so he voted the “wrong” way and then tried to escape physically from the building, but was grabbed before he could get away, forcibly returned to the House floor, and then forced to claim that he had been “confused” and now wanted to change his vote. That incident (like yesterday’s) was a bipartisan scam, but it destroyed my last shred of hope or respect for what I henceforth have called the Despicable (or Deceitful) Dems.
A thing you won’t see on Western TV screens:
https://x.com/Parodyjeffx/status/2044220620259414181
Some recent posts from Trump on Truth Social:
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J.TRUMP
Apr 17, 2026, 8:27 PM
The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers – No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you! President DJT
Apr 17, 2026, 8:57 PM
Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY, UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger! President DJT
Apr 17, 2026, 9:13 PM
Again! This deal is not tied, in any way, to Lebanon, but we will, MAKE LEBANON GREAT AGAIN!
Apr 17, 2026, 9:27 PM
Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Apr 17, 2026, 9:40 PM
Kalibrated
I’m also not posting Trumps comments for any legitimate reasons anymore.
If they’re entertaining I may post them but they’re counter productive to real analysis.
He’s sperging out right now.
https://t.me/kalibrated/30196#
those April 17 times just don’t add up –
I copied them direct from Truth Social. What looks off about them? (I did put the first post first and so on, reversing the order they were in.)
I’m guessing the issue is that the TS timestamps are adjusted to your time zone; it makes it look like you posted them here before Trump wrote them. They’re at 9 pm and you posted them at 2 EDT.
Quite possibly. I often get my head tied in knots trying to figure these times out. ‘The internet’ could give times such as 9:37 pm EDT, but the nearest it usually gets is 17:46 GMT +7, which leaves me wondering if the 7 has already been added, or if I should do that – or perhaps subtract it!
At any rate, the posts were copied and pasted directly from Trump’s Truth Social, as anyone able to comment here can quite easily verify.
:) It’s too bad you didn’t write them before Trump did; that would be a useful power to have. Reminds me of the Red Dwarf scene where the characters get control of the scriptwriter’s typewriter.
So Kalibrated will continue to read Trump’s posts, but will only post them if they’re not legitimate? Protecting us poor plebs from contamination?
It reminds me of people who post comments saying they never read or listen to the NYT or BBC etc as they’re nothing but lies and propaganda – but they’re happy to read an article by someone who has.
And in this case it’s not the NYT or BBC, it’s Trump, the president of the USA. Still ckock full of lies, propaganda, and perhaps delusions, but I for one am still interested in what he has to say. He can order a nuclear strike whenever he feels like it, and Kalibrated doesn’t want us seeing what he’s saying?
The Spray Tan Sociopath will certainly go down in history for his tweets.
Who knows what is true and what’s in the fine print during this fog of war, but I can’t believe Iran would hand over their enriched material Even if they don’t plan on building a nuke just having the highly enriched material is a deterrent. And if they are also agreeing to move all enrichment facilities above ground seems like they are just asking for the Libya treatment in the long term.
In the recent Larry Johnson/Robert Barnes discussion at Johnson’s “Crosscurrents” podcast, IIRC the view was expressed that DJT is lately not firmly connected to reality (in part because the people around him have been withholding bad news out of fear of arousing his anger). These “tweets” might be his perception of what he thinks has been accomplished, or they might be projections of what he hopes to accomplish (Barnes noted that when DJT says the Iranians really want something, it means that DJT really wants that, and when DJT asserts that he has refused something, it means that the Iranians have refused that thing — something that I am sure many people have also noticed), or they might be attempts to pressure the Iranians into agreeing in near future to what he asserts they have already agreed.
I think one should provisionally consider these communications to have the character of “confabulation” until subsequent events clarify their truth status.
Trump is such an odd person.
On another note, Israeli Meteorological Service forecasts “By the end of the century, the average temperature is expected to rise by about 3.5°C compared to the last two decades.
The likelihood of extreme temperature events (45°C and 50°C) will significantly increase as we approach the end of the century.”
I’ve seen other estimates at 4-5 degrees Celsius.
Going to be miserable there. I expect the emissions from the war are above the worst case business as usual scenario. Add in the widespread demolition and reconstruction and that’s a lot of carbon. What a remarkable waste of resources.
Occured to me the nuclear dust he’s talking about might be Iran demanded the US repatriate a bunch of soil that was irradiated in the B2 attacks, Trump agreed because he thinks he can spin a toxic cleanup operation as “we’re getting their uranium after all”, and will proceed to dump all the soil at Savannah River, just like the US did after the Palomares Accident.
Congressman Jamie Raskin has announced a conflict-of-interest probe of Jared Kushner:
Things could get “spicy” for the grifter if the Dems take over the House in January. I like the way that he put “Special Envoy for Peace” in air quotes in the letter.
Perhaps the Dems will in the same spirit do something about their own insider trading problem. Ever the giddy optimist, me.
That Charlie Garcia tweet. “You finish with three.” Oh? After two carriers have already had to flee the scene of the crime? And the third group had to go all the way around Africa to avoid riling up the Houthis? Can the boats get within striking distance? Do they have any munitions left? Etc. It’s open-source something, for sure.
I’m glad you noticed. Mr Garcia seems to be a devoted believer in “Team America F**K yeah!” and not much more. But like many open-sourcers he has a good eye for detail and obsessive follow through. Seen a lot of that in NAFO. They get rotted out when events don’t match their expectations and they fall through the propaganda trapdoor.
MAGA Is Increasingly Convinced the Trump Assassination Attempt Was Staged
https://www.wired.com/story/maga-is-increasingly-convinced-the-trump-assassination-attempt-was-staged/
Trump Admin Hands $20B Mega-Deal to Company Backed by Jared Kushner’s War Profiteer Brother
https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-admin-hands-20b-contract-to-weapons-group-backed-by-jared-kushners-little-brother/
London police investigate reported hazardous materials incident near Israeli embassy
https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-893366
Slump in voters’ support for Israel shakes US consensus over military aid
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/17/slump-in-voters-support-for-israel-shakes-us-consensus-over-military-aid
Trump Is Stark-Raving Mad—Impeach Him Now
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/has-trump-lost-his-mind
Iran threatens to shut Strait of Hormuz if US naval blockade persists
https://kyivindependent.com/iran-threatens-to-shut-strait-of-hormuz-if-us-naval-blockade-persists/
Trump shocked Netanyahu with post declaring Lebanon strikes “prohibited”
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/lebanon-strikes-israel-trump-prohibited
Israel Strikes Lebanon Less Than an Hour After Trump Says It’s ‘PROHIBITED’ From More Attacks
https://www.commondreams.org/news/israel-strikes-lebanon-less-than-an-hour-after-trump-says-it-s-prohibited-from-more-attacks
Trump tells CBS: Iran agreed to stop supporting Hamas and Hezbollah
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/u67hnl6o1
USS Ford returns to the Middle East
Maybe it should be changed to the USS Sir Robin…
I believe U.S.S. Brave Sir Robin is reserved for the Eisenhower, per Will Schryver.
There was actually a USS Robin, and a carrier, too–well, sort of.
During the Guadalcanal Campaign, USN lost so many carriers and the new Essex class ships weren’t ready yet, so the Brits were asked to send a carrier. The carrier the British sent was the HMS Victorious, and as the ship was assigned call sign Robin, the British sailors (and apparently, Americans, too) got into the habit of calling their ship USS Robin.
@DD_Geopolitics
It’s that time of the week again!!!! MARKET MANIPULATION FRIDAY!!!!
https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2045236422798655962#m
It appears that Trump, once again, has made another bogus announcement that the war is over when nothing could be further from the truth. But Mr. Market loved it–both on the oil market and the stock market. I wonder which of Trump’s cronies made a killing this time. Now that the markets are closed, Israel can go back to bombing Lebanon or Iran. Mr. Market will never learn.
And the Strait of Hormuz is closed again.
Pain is coming soon as the last large tankers that left before the war will reach their ports in 3 days.
Source for it being closed? Not doubting you just haven’t seen it.
The DD Geopolitics twitter feed has several postings on ships being turned back and Iran stating if the blockade continued, the Strait would be closed. This was over the past 1-3 hours.
It’s not archived yet but this was at the WSJ:
Iran has told mediators it will continue to limit the number of ships allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls for the remaining period of the ceasefire, officials familiar with the matter said.
Ghalibaf has a tweet that’s also of interest:
Not sure I’d trust the WSJ on anything concerning this war…
Except here it’s what Yves refers to as “admission against interest.” There’s no shortage of less US-friendly outlets reporting the same; if even the WSJ concurs and quote unnamed US “officials” I think we can consider it confirmed.
Disagree it’s against intertest as any misrepresentation of events in a “trade is resuming or will soon” fashion is exactly what the WSJ would want. Especially since the actual statement was much stronger and the Strait was actually closed.
Iran threatens to shut Strait of Hormuz if US naval blockade persists
https://kyivindependent.com/iran-threatens-to-shut-strait-of-hormuz-if-us-naval-blockade-persists/
‘Financial Pawn of the Saudi Monarchy’: House Judiciary Opens Probe Into Jared Kushner
https://www.commondreams.org/news/kushner-pawn-of-saudi-monarchy
Trump Fumes Over Report He’s Considering Giving Iran $20 Billion – A jaw-dropping report reveals Trump is willing to give Iran billions as part of a nuclear deal.
https://newrepublic.com/post/209210/trump-fumes-report-iran-deal-20-billion
Pete Hegseth Is Trying to Resegregate the Military
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/pete-hegseth-military-diversity/686734/
Trump Begs Everyone to Praise Him on Iran in Massive Crashout
https://newrepublic.com/post/209214/donald-trump-begs-praise-social-media-iran
Most U.S. Jews Oppose AIPAC Spending in Democratic Primaries, Poll Shows
https://www.haaretz.com/jewish/2026-04-15/ty-article/.premium/most-u-s-jews-oppose-aipac-spending-in-democratic-primaries-poll-shows/0000019d-919e-d290-afbf-b1fe90170000
Trump’s legal fees slush fund is drying up The Save America PAC is $500,000 in the red according to federal filings — and owes three times as much to the president’s many, many lawyers.
https://www.ms.now/opinion/trumps-legal-fees-donations-fec
Indian refiners pay for Iran oil in yuan via ICICI Bank, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-refiners-pay-iran-oil-yuan-via-icici-bank-sources-say-2026-04-17/
US to recover uranium from Iran at a ‘leisurely pace’, Trump tells Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-recover-uranium-iran-trump-tells-reuters-2026-04-17/
Ships crossing Hormuz need IRGC OK, unfreezing of assets part of deal, Iran official says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ships-crossing-hormuz-need-irgc-ok-unfreezing-assets-part-deal-iran-official-2026-04-17/
Wheat prices surge as Mideast turmoil raises global food insecurity fears
London insurers launch $1.2b war cover for Hormuz shipping
So who is going to pay for the additional coverage? Wink Wink
Trump’s derangement is front and center, Larry Johnson’s “Anonymous source” claiming that Trump “Went off his rocker” in September last year rings true.
I’d place it earlier, however Trump’s current mental state is clear to everyone.
He is not sane.
Hoo Boy.
.
Apple TV teases new Israeli propaganda series, “Unconditional,” from the producers of “Homeland”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/trending/apple-tv-new-israeli-thriller-backlash
China told Maersk and MSC to drop Panama port operations, FT reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-told-maersk-msc-drop-panama-port-operations-ft-reports-2026-04-15/
Hormuz is closed again, again.
https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970?s=46
IQs are lower than they’ve ever been. We have confirmation of what Iran means in regards to the strait and NY Times top headline online still says it’s open for business, no qualifications. Help me. We’re merely at pre ceasefire status quo.
Idiocracy, here we come-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2tUW0HDHA (4:39 mins)
IMF sees Canada’s fiscal position as strongest in G7
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/imf-sees-canadas-finances-strongest-in-g7
“A $760 million short position in oil was opened 20 minutes before Trump announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz precise timing or mere coincidence?” on X @Watcher.Guru
US extends waiver allowing countries to buy Russian oil
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-extends-waiver-allowing-countries-buy-russian-oil-2026-04-18/
Only One Side Has Clearly Broken the Law In the Strait of Hormuz — And it isn’t Iran.
https://archive.is/OmMXg