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Iran War: US Imposing Strait of Hormuz Blockade Monday AM; Experts Criticize Further Pressure on Oil Prices, Illegality, and Risk of Failure; Will Houthis Close the Red Sea to Back Iran?

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Trump keeps digging his and America’s hole deeper out of his desperate need for dominance and refusal to find a way to exit the Iran war catastrophe he created. After the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad hit an impasse, with no plan to try again, Trump issued a set of angry tweets:

The idea of the US “closing” the Strait of Hormuz was so obviously cray cray, as in counter to the Administration’s ongoing efforts to contain at least paper oil prices via gimmicks and Trump’s barker patter that I thought this had to be a deception to mask some other kinetic scheme or yet another effort to manipulate the markets for fun and profit, here by spiking oil prices. Recall that Trump and allies were talking up “taking” Kharg Island or perhaps islands in the Strait of Hormuz when in fact they were moving ahead with the barmily high-risk scheme of trying to seize Iran’s enriched uranium. That resulted in the biggest single-operation loss of US aircraft since the Vietnam War.

And there is evidence that the US is still trying to Do Something in the ground operation category:

The only sort of good news in this renewed escalation drama is that the US has not (yet) renewed strikes on Iran. From the Bloomberg landing page at 7:00 AM EDT:

But CENTCOM has announced that the “blockade” will start at 10:AM EDT on the 13th, which is 5:30 PM in Tehran and 6:00 PM in the UAE. Again, contrast this rapid action with the widespread skepticism among experts that Trump was serious, as opposed to blowing off steam and/or engaging in threat display. For instance, in Trump’s ‘illegal’ Hormuz blockade threat risks global oil shock and wider war, analysts say at Aljazeeraa, the analysts thought it was likely that this was posturing.

Similarly:

The blockade gambit is such an obvious own goal that even the adept Iranian embassy trolls were caught flat-footed:

But soon enough:

Sal Mercogliano describes how this operation appears intended to operate:

Mind you, one has to take Mecogliana with a fistful of salt, particularly given his jingoism and his tendency to beyond his knowledge.1 In light of that, it is revealing to see how uncomfortable he is with this Trump plan as engaging in the same type of interference with freedom of navigation that the Trump Administration has made a bloody flag and Mercogliano has made clear he opposes. He argues that those rule were designed to apply to peaceful traffic, implying that there is a case for different behavior in a time of war. Gee, if that applies to the US, why does that not go double for Iran, particularly given that the behavior of Gulf States like Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE makes them co-belligerents under UN rules, and thus fair game for military action?

Nevertheless, Mercogliano explains that the Trump plans is to bar ships leaving Iran’s ports from getting to their destinations. That would presumably handled similar to how the US went after an”sanctioned” oil carrier that had tried going to Venezuela and had departed empty due to not having docked or loaded a cargo. The US chased it across much of the Atlantic before boarding it. The US presumably intends to act as a pirate and seize cargoes rather than blow up ships, as it did with an unarmed Iranian frigate returning from India.2

I wonder how many pursuits the US can engage in in parallel, since I assume sort of servicemembers that are practiced in these operations are not in huge supply. I doubt that the US would try to stop vessels departing Iran all that close to Iran.3

A fresh assessment from Aljazeera pre-supposes the US will operate against Iranian ports. I question this assumption but we will see soon enough:

‘Hard operation’: US faces challenges in stopping tankers at Iranian ports
Iran would view any US move to block shipping to and from its ports as both risky and extremely difficult to execute, according to Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at Tehran University.

“It is a matter of question whether the US army can stop the tankers and supertankers in this vast waterway,” Eslami said, arguing such an operation would be “a hard operation for the US army”.

He stressed that Iran is under heavy military and economic pressure and does not want its access to “food and other things that it needs” cut off, while facing attacks from the US and Israel.

Eslami said Tehran wants to send “a very strong message to the Americans” even as “most parties are thinking about diplomatic settlements for the crisis,” warning that closing the Strait would be “a very, very big step by both sides”.

And there are other glaring issues with this Trump scheme:

And if you think this operation is somehow good for the US, think again:

Mr. Market is of the same view. From the Financial Times in Oil prices soar above $100 a barrel as hope fades of end to Iran war:

Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on Monday following the breakdown of US-Iran talks and plans by Donald Trump to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 8 per cent to $102.82, while West Texas Intermediate jumped 8.4 per cent to $104.65, as oil traders warned a prolonged conflict would worsen fuel shortages….

Analysts said the US strategy to block the strait did not yet amount to a return to active combat. But it pointed towards an escalation that would increase concerns about a worsening shortage of key petroleum products, such as jet fuel and diesel.

“Escalation tends to beget escalation,” said Kevin Book, head of research at ClearView Energy Partners. “Blocking Iranian tankers could raise prices and worsen shortages.”

And from Bloomberg’s live feed:

Markets are reflecting escalating tensions, with oil prices trading back above $100 a barrel. Brent crude futures jumped 7.6%. Equity markets were more muted, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.7% and the S&P 500 set to open lower by a similar measure.

Another entry suggests that investors are trying really really hard to think happy thoughts:

Oil is up on Monday, but the advance to just above $100 a barrel by global benchmark Brent does not speak to a full and long-lasting attempt at choking off all Iranian oil flows, and everything that might ensue from that.

There are a lot of questions about the blockade, and even if it’s not possible to know all the answers, one can imagine realistic scenarios that are not as bullish for the price of oil as a full blockade:

  • What will a blockade of Iranian oil look like in practice? Seize and interdict? Or blow up commercial ships as Iran has done?
  • What hardware does the US have in place to both fight a war with Iran and execute a blockade?
  • Is the US really willing to take actions that would drive oil prices materially higher?

We have pointed out that Iran has had protracted periods, such as in 2019 and 2020, that its oil exports were close to nil. So the idea that they can’t get by with no oil revenues, which seems to be the US belief, is exaggerated.

Note that WTI futures are trading at higher than Brent. This is likely an artifact of market oddities. WTI is a physical delivery contract, so my understanding is that its prices for near-dated contracts are pretty close to actual spot market. Brent is theoretically physical delivery mechanism, but they are so cumbersome that in practice it is a cash-settled contract. That has facilitated the recent, widely observed phenomenon of physical oil in Europe trading at markedly higher prices than what is now described as “paper oil”.

Not surprisingly, tankers of all sorts are staying away from the Persian Gulf, even with the US operation intends to mess only with vessels that go to Iran’s ports. From Reuters in Oil tankers steer clear of Hormuz ahead of US blockade:

Oil tankers are steering clear of the ​Strait of Hormuz ahead of a U.S. blockade later on Monday following failed peace talks ‌between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, shipping data showed….

U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces would begin implementing the blockade of ​all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on ⁠Monday.

It would be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, ​including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” it said in a statement on X.

U.S. ​forces would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, and additional information would be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade, it said.

The tanker hesitation may be due to in part to Iran saber-rattling.

More on the Iran position per Middle East Eye:

IRGC: Military vessels approaching Hormuz constitute ‘breach of ceasefire’

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the approach of military vessels toward the Strait of Hormuz would constitute a violation of the ceasefire, warning such moves would be met with a “firm and harsh” response, according to a statement reported by IRNA.

The IRGC said civilian shipping remains permitted under regulated conditions, rejecting “claims to the contrary”.

The warning comes after US Centcom said that two of its destroyer ships transited Hormuz to ensure the strait is clear of sea mines previously laid by the IRGC.

This of course means Iran could retaliate on a completely different front.

In an important, must listen talk with Tom Switzer, John Mearsheimer and Joshua Landis give a broader view:

Landis makes some important points. Israel opposed the JCPOA not because it did allow enrichment but because it lifted financial sanctions. Recall that Ted Postol, along with other experts, said the JCPOA did effectively constrain Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Israel regarded a more economically successful Iran as able to become more powerful in the region and thus a threat to Israeli dominance. Israel believed that by having the US exit the JCPOA, it could bombing Iran, prevent its nuclear weapons development and also keep it poor. Landis later argues that Israel will continue to try to pursue its “mowing the lawn” strategy, of attacking perceived threats so as to harm infrastructure and the population. But two can play this game, as Iran is demonstrating.

Oddly, neither Mearsheimer nor Landis acknowledge that Iran is well aware of this Israel strategy, of seeking to land big punches every so often so as to keep its opponents off balance and weak. Iran has decided it will have no more of that and intends to inflict enough pain on the US and Israel so that it will be a very long time before they try that again.

I don’t see how that comes about ex regime change, which is an outcome Iran is seeking. Admittedly, Professor Marandi is not an official spokesperson but his views do not stray far from widely-held ones in the government:4

Mearsheimer and Landis both depressingly expect that this conflict will continue for a long time, albeit not at a consistent high level of kinetic activity.

More on the economic front. Jeff Snider focuses on one of our pet peeves, that the business and political press have been fixated on energy prices, and have ignored the additional and substantial harm done to supply of other key commodities.

We were also early to warn about the impact of helium shortages on chip production and MRI:

We posted an article from VoxEU that guesstimated that the inflation impact of supply shortfalls of other critical materials would be at least as large, in and of itself, as the energy price hike effects.

The focus on the US Strait blockade and the resulting market upset looks news-wise to have crowded out another important developments. From NO1:

Erdogan threatens to “enter” Israel. Turkish president said “Just as we entered Karabakh, just as we entered Libya, we will do exactly the same to them”, the most explicit military threat by a NATO member against a US-aligned partner since Turkey’s 1974 Cyprus operation. Netanyahu responded by calling Erdogan the “Hitler of our time”.

And Trump is taking hits on other fronts. It’s outside the scope of this post, but the resounding defeat of Viktor Orban’s party in Hungary, after the Trump Administration threw its weight behind Orban, cost Trump a toehold of support in the EU. A Russophobic Bloomberg newsletter notes:

Trump, who openly backed Orban and sent Vice President JD Vance to Budapest days before the vote, has now lost the standard bearer for MAGA-style populism among rightwing forces in Europe.

And not only are Trump’s poll numbers at terrible level but even core backers are no longer keen about him:

The Pope is not cowed. BBC included the Pope’s continuing protests in the headline of its live feed but Aljazeera has better detail:

Pope Leo says he will continue to speak out against war
Pope Leo XIV says he plans to continue speaking out against war, despite Donald Trump’s attack on him.

The leader of the Roman Catholic Church also said that the Christian message was being “abused”.

The ‌pontiff made the comments to journalists aboard the papal flight to Algiers, where the first US pope is starting a 10-day tour to four African countries.

“I don’t want to get into a debate with him,” Leo said. “I don’t think that the message of the Gospel is meant to ⁠be abused in the ⁠way that some people are doing.

“I will continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote ⁠peace, promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states ⁠to look for just ⁠solutions to problems.

“Too many innocent people are being killed. And I think someone has to ‌stand ‌up and say there’s a better way,” the Reuters ⁠news agency reported.

Reader Tom Stone has regularly pointed out that Trump is unhinged. He seems to becoming even more so, witness his even longer tweets at the top of this post plus:

Related views:

Finally, we’re including this clip as infotainment. The material in the opening section is likely to be familiar. But at 10:00, Tucker Carlson faces off against a remarkably smarmy BBC host, Victoria Derbyshire. I am envious of Tucker’s skill in keeping his cool while smacking down her attempt at character assassination. And right after is a very fine SNL skit.

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298 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    A lot of countries may have been inclined to blame Iran for the oil related shortages, even though the Iranians were letting more than a few ships go through. Now that Trump has announced a complete naval blockade on any oil coming out of the Gulf, all countries will now be united in blaming Trump (and the US) for all the shortages that we are about to experience. Trump has just made himself the enemy of the entire world. The consequences for this may take decades to play out.

      1. Matthew

        Two of the more pathetic Trump tweets. I’ve said it here before, but he’s been so front and center for so long that he can’t just disappear now. We get to watch him age out/self-destruct in real time here, and in time the Emperor looks naked before even his most delusional subjects.

        1. Wukchumni

          In a good news vein, in the space of a week, he has threatened nuclear war and claims to be Jesus.

          You can’t go any further than that in terms of claims, can you?

  2. diptherio

    I guess Trump figures if nobody was willing to help the US open the Strait, surely they’ll be willing to help the US close it. Makes sense to me.

    1. david

      US seems willing to go it alone with the blockade.
      it might be another mess, especially if Iran continues with its side of the warcrimes on civilian targets.
      like in the article:
      “What will a blockade of Iranian oil look like in practice? Seize and interdict? Or blow up commercial ships as Iran has done?”
      I appreciate this site and the balanced reporting on the Iranian warcrimes side.

      1. Yalt

        That wasn’t the reporting of “this site,” that was a quote from Bloomberg that Yves described as suggesting that investors are trying really really hard to think happy thoughts.

  3. JohnA

    Re Tucker Carlson faces off against a remarkably smarmy BBC host, Victoria Derbyshire.

    While I totally agree how smarmy and smearing Derbyshire was, she is actually one of the better, if not the best BBC political presenter. Which simply goes to show how debased the BBC has become as a propaganda outfit for the west, or alternatively that the BBC was always that, but managed to better hide this in the past.

    1. Christopher Mann

      The BBC will always mean a couple of things to me:

      1. The inspiration for Orwell’s novel 1984. He worked for the BBC during WW2 doing propaganda and a lot of the techniques, still practiced, like memory-holing, NewSpeak, history falsification were BBC techniques.

      2. The home of Jimmy Saville. Johnny Rotten warned about his behaviour in the 1970s and got banned.

      Feel free to add yours!

      1. hemeantwell

        Thanks for pointing out Orwell’s use of his BBC background (google AI agrees, but so what?). I’d lazily assumed he’d only pulled from his understanding of Stalinist practices.

        1. James Lawrie

          ‘1984’ is actually an attack on Britain and not Stalinist Russia. It is an excursion into how easily Britain falls into authoritarianism and how Stalinism suits the place so well.
          Watching Jordan Peterson praise it and as usual misrepresenting it, or more probably entirely misunderstanding it, was highly amusing for me.

        2. watty

          I believe that Orwell likely used both BBC and Russian knowledge, but as I am currently re reading his books based on his time fighting in the Spanish civil war, his main source was the reporting on all the false newspaper reporting in Spain (and somewhat around the world) about that war.

          1. chuck roast

            I believe Orwell fought with the POUM which were Marxist workers brigades. The Stalinists spent more time fighting the Anarchists and the POUM than the did the Francoists. Hemingway has a good take on this. Never cross the Republican secret police who were far less interested in ferreting out Fascists than the were in murdering their near ideological comrades.

      2. Rip Van Winkle

        A half century ago I associated the BBC with Monty Python’s Flying Circus on Sunday nights Channel 11 Chicago.

      3. Aurelien

        Dorian Lynskey goes into all this in some depth in his book The Ministry of Truth, and he shows that Orwell’s experience as a talks producer only contributed a small part of his ideas about propaganda and truth. Orwell’s main criticism of the BBC was its bureaucracy and the difficulty of getting things done. In his view, the BBC tried to tell the truth as much as you can in wartime, but as he said, even the truth can be propaganda: it depends what it’s used for. Part of his job apparently also involved reading German propaganda broadcasts, but the major part of his thinking for 1984 came from his experiences in Spain, with the systematic falsification of news, the blackening of the names of people who had actually fought against Franco as “fascists” and most of all the willingness of parts of the British media to swallow these lies wholesale. Orwell was satirising the rise of the PMC and the non-ideological political class, and he chose his beloved England because it was the most unlikely, and s striking, example he could imagine.

    2. Quintian and Lucius

      If nothing else, BBC did air the segment complete with Tucker’s insistence that they do so which rather rubbed in the egg on their face; I’ve no idea if Derbyshire enjoys much editorial power but that at least speaks to some measure of character for someone in the chain of command.

    1. hereweare

      That is as good and clear a summary of the war and the reasons for it as I’ve seen! All the main points, minus the tedious technical stuff about economics, historical background, international law and so on that make many people simply glaze over.

    2. hemeantwell

      Pinning the tail on the Israeli donkey by good old boy vitamin supplement sellers is one of the more encouraging developments in the current disaster. Comments there are enthusiastic, could add to the supplement’s placebo effect.

      1. NYT_Memes

        Israel, stubborn as a mule. Good analogy but an insult to donkeys and all other non-human animals.

  5. Louis Fyne

    >>>>the Strait of #Hormuz, an Iranian high-speed boat approached 🇺🇸 U.S. warships.

    I’m pretty sure that’s file footage. I’d ask Grok but I’m not paying for Twittter, lol

    . those two sentences are true, just years/months apart on our timeline.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I am losing patience with your unsubstantiated attacks. They are effectively an attack on the site and I will NOT tolerate them. Reasoned criticism and corrections are encouraged but not lazy one-upsmanship.

      And you know Grok is garbage in, garbage out, plus AI which is verboten here. How dare you depict Grok as a valid source

      Had you bothered making any investigation, the comments on the tweet have WESTERN sources corroborating it:

      And in a critical thinking fail, the very brief image of the ship, which came from PressTV, was the least important part of the tweet. The key part was the audio

      Keep acting like a troll and you wil no longer be welcome here.

      1. Lurking Jerry

        Sorry, Yves – I believe ‘Louis Fyne’ is referring to the tweet by ‘Military Summary’ which indeed includes archive footage: The American vessel visible in that footage is USNS Choctaw County, an expeditionary fast transport vessel decommissioned in 2025. In the foreground, there is the bridge of USS Sirocco, a patrol ship decommissioned in 2023. The wikipedia entry for USS Sirocco discusses the incident the footage is from.

        BTW – longtime lurker. Thanks for the daily dose of analysis you and your team provide.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          While I appreciate you pointing me to what Louis Fyne apparently meant (and I am surprised that Military Summary would make this sort of error, he is usually exact on details if also sometimes making odd conjectures from them), this was a process violation. The onus is on the commenter to substantiate an accusation of an error, and not attack and worse say, “Oh I am sure Grok would back me.” That is not on, both in terms of failing to back up an assertion and in treating AI as a legitimate source.

      2. Louis Fyne

        I didn’t mean to impugn on the website, just that particular Twitter poster—in a good faith observation.

        Here is the original video from June 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avRDhlkwdq4 (from the U.S. Naval Institute’s youtube channel) versus https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/2043304819796889603

        I found it via old-fashioned google-fu.

        The original Twitter account is the one who just receive the collective ire of open source Twitter—his tweet was even cited by Simplicius.

        https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/masterful-5d-stroke-trumps-blockade

    2. diptherio

      “I’d ask Grok” tells me everything I need to know about how much attention you’ve been paying to the world.

  6. Mikerw0

    Like so many emerging crises, right now much of the focus, almost naturally, falls to capital markets. The near relentless view that so long as capital markets are okay, so is Main Street. But Main Street isn’t okay. I am wondering how long it takes before the media focus shifts to what is happening to the general population?

    We know Australia is in a world of hurt of diesel shortages. Non-corpoarate farmers are not having such a good time as they can’t get fertilizer for planting season, and I have ready many pre-sell their crops so they are in financial trouble as their costs are way up. During the pandemic we saw stories of empty shelves and supply disruptions.

    I can’t but help thinking that at some point soon the narrative will change.

    1. jsn

      The media is concentrated to the point that anything broadcast or promoted online algorithmically is categorically part of the narrative manufacture machinery.

      The narrative won’t change until the audience migrates to real information sources, which is beginning to happen though not nearly broadly enough.

      The entire institutional apparatus, three branches of government, parties, and media are completely captured by the marketplace the Supreme Court has made of our erstwhile Republic: the future will be outside this system, however we get there.

  7. Louis Fyne

    >>>>The times when Trump electrified the UFC crowds when he walked out into the area seem to be over.

    As having many Jewish friends over the years…..who are overwhelmingly PMC, (ironically, well more like karma-like) American/global Judaism is suffering collective punishment cuz of the acts of Bibi/AIPAC.

    People who were indifferent either-way, or nominally pro-Israel (cuz they share our values), on the Mideast are being red-pilled. (red-pill, as in learning a stark truth of the world)

    When you the crowd of a UFC fight, you

    1. Wukchumni

      On our kayak trip on the Colorado River a fortnight ago, had a couple of Jews that camp! friends along, and they’re classic American secular Jews. they look the part of being Jewish, but it isn’t their identity-that dogma wont hunt.

      One of them related that he could see the writing on the wall, and looking Jewish and having a last name of Cohen, he felt sure he’d be singled out for Zionist barbarity come home to haunt him, if things continued and it was open season on scapegoats, with the perps being unmenschionables back in the Holyland.

  8. ciroc

    More precisely, Trump’s posts on Truth Social should be called “post-truths” rather than “tweets.”

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I am not supporting Trump branding, FFS.

      I use the term “tweets” because it is the classic, as in pre-Musk, way this sort of communication was described.

      2. Tweetie

        Tweets is for classic Twitter/X posts.
        Since on BlueSky they are called Skeets (a portmanteau of sky + tweets), the obvious term on TrumpSocial is Treets…..

  9. Curious

    In the great book, “The logic of failure” by Dietrich dormer, he outlines the process by which people lead themselves to failure. Trump is doing some textbook stuff right now:

    People fail in complex situations because they act with too much confidence, focus on the obvious problem in front of them, ignore delayed side effects, and keep pushing a plan even after reality has changed.

    The main one being however, the delayed feedback. This one is a killer and about to hit everyone hard

    1. Michaelmas

      You’re overthinking this. Psychopathic morons are going to behave like psychopathic morons — it’s that simple, ultimately.

    2. ilsm

      US military staff functionals have numbers: G2 is intelligence, G3 is operations/plans, G4 is logistics, G7 or 8 (I can’t recall) is communications/computers….. iirc G1 is command/decisions

      I read a post on a military substack in the last week or so where nothing was said about G2 and G4!

      Too many firings in the pentagon!

      The Isafan affairs suggests planners left a lot of important issues out of the plan!

      1. jefemt

        Bug, or Feature? Let’s US shoot for a $1.5 Trillion (16 zeros) “budget”.

        Lets pass a law that the Warrior Department can no longer call it a Budget. It shall be called,
        Funding (?)

        16 zeros. Is that the size of Trump’s Cabinet?

        I want my money back.

          1. chuck roast

            I like the presentation. Adding a T or a B to a tiny number belittles and diminishes the scope and grandiosity of the actual amount. It should be a requirement of military budgets that they be printed entirely in digits…including cents…$1,500,000,000,000.00…all fixed now. Enough to hurt your head.

  10. marcel

    I wonder how many pursuits the US can engage in in parallel, since I assume sort of servicemembers that are practiced in these operations are not in huge supply.

    Larry says the US Navy has only 7 ships that can launch helis, which he deems mandatory for this kind of piracy.

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      Oh, I missed that. Thanks for the find.

      He independently arrives at the view that the interdiction is na ga happen in or near ports. The Venezuela case and the destruction of the Iranian frigate suggests the US would operate way away from Iran.

      And yes, he says seven ships. So what if 10 ships are brave enough to depart Iran over say a week?

      1. Frank Dean

        The blockade doesn’t need to intercept every ship to be effective.

        Somali piracy disrupted shipping for years despite being undertaken by tiny boats with very limited capabilities.

      2. Darthbobber

        Assuming that this is at all serious (as opposed to 1 or 2 boardings of small fry with a bunch of “look what we can do” posta followed by soone other distraction), it would quickly turn into an absurd game of whack a mole over a vast amount of ocean.

        And a chunk of the heli capable ships are also air defense ships who can no longer fulfill their roles with their respective task forces if dispatched all over hell and gone.

        There is of course the possibility that some of the non-small fry might decide to provide naval escorts for ships of their own flag just outside the gulf. And as Tex Cobb would say “what then?”

      3. jrkrideau

        There are also logistics problems. An RCN veteran points out:

        Mileage for a destroyer or cruiser is measured in barrels per hour. According to the U.S. Naval Institute, a modern destroyer such as an ARLEIGH BURKE Class ship burns 200 gallons per hour of distillate, which is basically furnace oil, per Gas Turbine Generator, of which it has four, regardless of plant configuration or vessel speed, both of which affect fuel consumption.

        “Each GTG burns 200 gallons per hour (GPH) regardless of plant configuration or speed, varying only slightly with the electric load. There is a diminishing return in maximum speed from doubling the number of engines online because the power needed to overcome a given drag force is proportional to the cube of speed.1 Traditionally, two charts are presented for calculating the ship’s optimum operating conditions: one showing GPH versus speed and, the other, gallons per nautical mile (GPNM) versus speed.”

        Does the blockade call for more air-borne surveillance? If so this is going to impact aviation fuel supplies.

        Assuming ships are within Iranian anti-ship missile range, ships are going to be burning up AD missiles and, as far as I am aware, the nearest reloading station is Diego Garcia, a mere 3,200 or so km away.

        Oh, IIRC, China has just recently become self-sufficient in helium though it is still going to need to import the natural gas feed-stock.

        And mentioning China, the Times of India reports that the Chinese Gov’t is not happy with a US blockade. China has the world’s largest navy.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mlru8fAUqEk

        Trump has outdone himself.

    3. Arkady Bogdanov

      It’s not really about the helicopters themselves (Destroyers and Frigates all carry two of them and can launch and recover them at will, and these ships can more easily interdict shipping than the large ships that Larry Johnson mentions)- the real sticker of a problem is berthing space for the assault teams (or the pirates, if you prefer) and their gear which is more copious than most understand (weapons, comms, armor, ammunition, etc), plus these teams have their own command team and they require additional space to conduct planning and meetings. Plus, on top of all of that, you need to have the extra space to meet their daily needs, and the attendant storage room/capacity (extra food, water, bathrooms/heads, showers, etc).
      Only the big ships have the room to accommodate all of this additional activity.

  11. Louis Fyne

    >>>>USS Michael Murphy

    Michael Murphy, the namesake of the ship, is an allegory of the American “lions being led by sheep” and tactical ‘wins’ in a sea of strategic failure.

    Posthumously received the Medal of Honor in Afghanistan for sacrificing himself to issue a rescue call after his unit was surrounded by insurgents. However his call for rescue resulted in the death of 1/2 of the rescue team, despite a high body count inflicted on the insurgents and eventual elimination of the local warlord the unit was sent to monitor.

  12. The Rev Kev

    ‘Thomas Paine Band
    @ThomasPaineBand
    The Magic is Gone: Trump’s entrance tonight into UFC 327 in Miami should be a wake up call for Trump and his handlers. The times when Trump electrified the UFC crowds when he walked out into the area seem to be over.’

    If the Democrats were not as useless and castrated like they are right now, they could start calling Trump “Low energy Don.” That would really get under his skin but I have the impression that the Democrats are afraid of Trump and try to avoid angering him.

    2. Hepativore

      A lot of Democrats also agree with Trump behind closed doors as many of them are also diehard Zionists or are in the pocket of Israel because they also receive lots of money from AIPAC. The march to war with Iran has been decades in the making with strong bipartisan support. If this war is still going on when 2028 rolls around as it likely will be; if we get a Democratic president they will probably continue where Trump left off, but with nicer-sounding rhetoric.

      Both parties will let this war go on no matter how unpopular the war might be or how much damage it has caused by then and would continue to do so. The opinions of the public never mattered to our political elites and all the Trump administration has done is strip away the pretense of pretending that they ever did.

      1. Procopius

        I don’t think the war will last beyond the end of the year. After Israel bombs their electric power plants, the Iranians are eventually going to have to bomb their desalination plants. There are only three of them and the people need them for drinking water. That means the end of Israel. It’s quite possible, especially if Netanyhu is still there, Israel will then drop a dozen nukes on Iran, which in turn will release all the remaining missiles and drones on Israel and the Gulf States, making them uninhabitable. I believe the reason Iran hasn’t already laid waste the Gulf States and Israel is because they are Shi’a and reluctant to take human life unnecessarily. I believe they won’t destroy the desalinization plants in Israel until they are forced to, but that day will come.

        1. juno mas

          I believe there’s a ‘Wilkerson Update’ that reports on just that. No more water for Tel Aviv.

        2. A Little Bird

          I agree, it’s not possible for Israel to destroy Iran and at some point Iran won’t have much left TO destroy in Israel. It’s madness.

        3. Hepativore

          Even if Israel is utterly destroyed, I think the US would continue the war with Iran after the destruction of Israel as long as possible in an effort to try and save face after being humiliated by a middle power like Iran as the US leadership would continue to try and avenge its bruised collective ego. Plus, Iran knows that the US cannot be trusted with any sort of peace agreement and so the war might also drag on simply because the US cannot help itself but renege on any deal that it makes with Iran.

          While the US-Iran-Israel conflict might not continue at the same pace that it is currently at, it might turn into a very long on-again/off-again intermittent war.

          I hope I am wrong, but I think that our politicians could never accept the reality that the US empire is in the final stages of unraveling and so will continue to press ahead with attacking Iran no matter how much damage it causes to itself and everyone else as a result.

    1. ilsm

      Thank you for your thorough and useful posts every day!

      Also, thank you for including Pope Leo, he has taken this administration to task for misapplying the gospels on immigration as well.

  14. ISL

    The Switzer interview was interesting, and it does present the Israeli view, but as noted, it fails to acknowledge that Iran has agency. And both are out over their skis when their opinions wander into military aspects – the US arsenal is emptying rapidly without replacement (no rare earths).

    Switzer should have asked John to give the story of how the war can continue for years (a favorite question of John) – interestingly, I have heard John acknowledge the shortages with the Judge. Consider the shit show on the Ford – these are signs of a military collapse. Or consider that when the drone flew into the radar in Qatar, no one tried to shoot it down (maybe they wanted to go home). 30% of Israeli’s do not show up for military duty. Can Israel accept Gaza-fication of its cities to preserve its right to mow the lawn? And what happens when Israel’s desalination plant (and electricity grid) is gone (along with the rest of West Asia’s)? This Cannot Go On Forever (even if that is the US/Israeli dream) because the US is depleting its remaining strategic depth, and Israel has none.

    They also fail to note that China has agency, and will react to Trump’s threat against oil heading to China – unlike Venezuela, Iran, and China have subs, and China also has many economic levers to cause a TACO.

    1. ilsm

      Rare earths is the “Chinese excuse in advance” for US failing to refill the magazine in the next decade or so!

      There are many other supply chain issues, as well as need for tools, manufacturing fixtures and equipment, test beds and human capital! Where are they going to put the expanded lines?

      And! just stamping out low effectiveness poor reliability copies is a problem in itself. US needs newly designed stuff.

      Have 155 mm shell deliveries increased?

  15. dearieme

    On around March 1st the bloggers at the Marginal Revolution blog solicited their readers’ reactions to the attack on Iran. Mine was “Dear God, not again.” I’ve had no reason to revise it.

    At one time I worked in a factory in NJ where we made small plastic bags for shipping carbines to Vietnam and larger ones for bringing bodies back. When Nixon finally drew a halt to the carnage I assumed that the US might draw some sensible conclusions. Fat chance!

    For what little it’s worth I suspect that Trump will not pursue his war to the loonie extent that JFK/LBJ pursued their Vietnam war, nor W his wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, nor Obama, Biden, … extended W’s wars, and added a few more (Libya, Syria, Ukraine …).

    There’s always some chance that Iran will crack – the revolutionaries have presumably become not only powerful but rich, and won’t want to sacrifice both power and wealth. But to this outsider nothing useful is known about the state of play within Iran. (My knowledge of Iran doesn’t extend much beyond having once had to tell a SAVAK man to bugger off though I dare say I used more moderate language.)

    1. Carolinian

      Yes the Cold Warriors killed a lot more Americans and a lot more non Americans. But the mid 20th was in the aftermath of the slaughterhouse of WW2 so perhaps they thought they were tapering off.

      By the late 20th many of TPTB were desperate to do away with the “Vietnam syndrome” and so George H.W’s war of choice, Gulf 1.

      However at least Bush the elder and JFK had some experience of war in WW2. Now things have devolved to the point where our wars are the plaything of blowhard Chickenhawks. We are living in Reality Show America with reality about to smack us into sanity in the worst possible way.

      What a world….

      1. dearieme

        “Chickenhawks” have long been notable in the US. Thomas Jefferson is a prime example.

        1. Carolinian

          True, but while the Continental Congress may not themselves have done a lot of fighting they were still in danger of, as Franklin put it, “hanging separately.”

          Back then going against a king could get you drawn and quartered.

    2. Ex-PFC Chuck

      “For what little it’s worth I suspect that Trump will not pursue his war to the loonie extent that JFK/LBJ pursued their Vietnam war . . “

      John Kennedy had assessed the Vietnam conflict to be a losing proposition ever since his visit to the country in 1951. To the extent he acquiesced to the incremental commitments of “advisors” in 1961 & 1962, they were tactical moves necessitated as part of his opposition to the fanatics on his joint chiefs of staff, who were demanding a massive preemptive strike on the USSR and China before the alleged “window of opportunity” would close at the end of 1963. In October of 1963 Kennedy issued NSAM 263 which called for the beginning of the withdrawal from Vietnam by the end of the year. Three days after JFK was assassinated president Johnson issued NSAM 273, which rescinded 263. For details see JFK and the Unspeakable, by James Douglass.

      2. pjay

        Yes. I was going to let that slide (should be “LBJ/RMN”), but in my view a misunderstanding of our history in those years contributes to a misunderstanding of our situation today.

        If I had to recommend only one book on the Kennedy assassination it would be the Douglas book. But for those who want to stick to the historical record on Kennedy and Vietnam I’d recommend Howard Jones’ book ‘Death of a Generation.’ It is very well documented, and Jones does not omit Kennedy’s mistakes or ambiguities in his discussion.

        1. Carolinian

          Of course yours is Oliver Stone’s big theme. And we skeptics concede the point that Kennedy wanted to withdraw while nevertheless allowing his underlings to arrange the Diem coup (there’s a new book) which he was for but not the killing of Diem.

          So do indeed blame Eisenhower while perhaps also conceding that JFK’s admin was big on rhetoric while often confused and wishy washy on policy–from Civil Rights to the Cold War. His best and the brightest weren’t, and the buck stops with him. Lyndon was much worse but Kennedy picked him too. Then he and his brother belittled Johnson once they had won (and allegedly were going to pick another veep for run number two). Johnson, like Trump, had a chip on his shoulder and something to prove psychologically.

          In many ways it was the same as it is now–a weak and conciliatory “left” versus a committed and hard right conservative party opposing.

    3. jonboinAR

      You said: “For what little it’s worth I suspect that Trump will not pursue his war to the loonie extent that JFK/LBJ pursued their Vietnam war, nor W his wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, nor Obama, Biden, … extended W’s wars, and added a few more (Libya, Syria, Ukraine …).”

      What I fear from him, though, is that he gives indications of lacking a certain modicum of say, states-leader wisdom, that his predecessors, whatever their many flaws, seemed to have, and that is, how far can you go in your states-leading ambitions without truly endangering human civilization.

  16. AG

    This is totally secondary.

    But since Postol had praised JCPOA from a POV of diplomatic professionalism as achieving its goal – why in the first place should we hail an agreement that limits Iran´s capabilities re: WMD if Israel is the real issue and not Iran.

    Shouldn´t the real solution be constraints on Israel?
    Iran never attacked anyone. JCPOA was just putting sugar on an unjust, Western-imposed discrimination.

    So my question is, was the JCPOA ever justified and sensible and not rather framework to enable the West to still mess around with maybe less fallout. Iran didn´t want a weapon anyway. And if nobody threatens them that need would not have ever arisen in the first place.

    If all parties sign the NPT and comply there is no need for additional deals.
    It´s hat on a hat…

    1. Safety First

      “Communism is just a red herring.” (Tim Curry, “Clue”)

      Well, not exactly.

      Tactically, the timing of the JCPOA is important. Bushehr was officially transferred by Rosatom to Iranian operational control in September of 2013. At that point, the hawks in the room – and remember, the Bush Jr administration was seriously considering bombing Iran in 2005-2006, the scuppering of which in part involved replacing Rumsfield with Gates as SecDef – started squawking that Iran will soon build a nuke, and we should bomb it now, before it does. Which of course it would not, but reality does not matter to the Dick Cheney types. [“We create our own reality” was the money Karl Rove quote of the day.]

      Formal negotiations of the JCPOA began in November of 2013, though I’m sure there were some informal contacts between the Russians, the Americans and the Iranians beforehand. So in a way, from Obama’s standpoint, and from that of the European leaders of the day (since they participated too), this was a way to silence the hawks and tamp down war talk. In the US first and foremost, because Israelis are going to Israel, and you may remember how ticked the Israeli government was at Obama the whole of 2010s. [Even Blinken, apparently, has recently said that under Obama when Israel tried the “we’ll bomb Iran and you follow us” routine, the White House said “no, you won’t”. For whatever Blinken’s word is worth.]

      Strategically, you can still view the JCPOA as part of a “soft” regime change plan – we’ll dangle enough of a carrot to empower local “moderates”, who eventually, a la Gorbachev, will completely cave in to all our demands. Whether the Obama people were smart enough to draw that particular analogy I do not know, but the overall policy of the US viz. Iran – must bring to heel, must change regime, must take oil – did not change. It’s just that Obama chose not to follow the obvious escalatory paths of economic blockade or military action, for once. But again, I believe that the tactical trigger was Bushehr going from Russian to Iranian control, and I am guessing that at the time the Russians too were all in favor of some kind of a non-proliferation arrangement (since nuclear proliferation has always been a sore point for this particular Russian government – imagine Ukraine with nukes, and all that).

      You are right, of course, that in principle if everyone had left Iran alone, it probably wouldn’t bother anyone, even with nuclear weapons, at least not at this particular point in time. Whereas the world constantly frets whether Israel is going to finally go Full Monty and drop a nuke on Teheran, or Beirut, or whatever.

      1. AG

        Thank you.
        What bothers me is that Postol to my understanding regards JCPOA as justified. Instead of making clear it was about appeasing the Neocons, if I may break down your points bluntly into a single phrase. A deal forced upon Iran due to US-American infighting which POTUS can´t solve. So actually due to a domestic weakness in the US not Iran. Punishing the absolutely wrong party, if I may call JCPOA, maybe inadquately, “punishment”.
        This would concur with Postol´s views on Israel pre-Netanyahu. Most sane Americans still like to draw a line there. A status quo ante.
        The Russian position in all this is obvious and consequential.

    3. hk

      In some sense, it’s even messier since, in the “historical” perspective (starting from Iranian Revolution on), I suspect Israeli hostility to Iran was largely cultivated by American revanchists. There are quite a few accounts (mostly relating to Israeli role “in” Iran Contra) that note many Israeli leaders did not care to antagonize Iran–they were far and their immediate interests did not conflict.

      It took a massive expansion of scope of supposed Israeli “interests” that brought the two into direct conflict. (Now, this does involve serious oversimplification–it built up over time, with Iran joining hands with Hizb’ullah and Syria, snd later, building some ties to Hsmas. But the initiative for the former came from the Levantines, not Iran, and Iran never had (and still don’t) have thst close a relationship with Iran.) Behind all these were US, at least those who wanted to fight Iran. They supported and, ultimately succeeded, in installing Netanyahu in Tel Aviv over his rivals (granted, the man was and still is a gifted dirty politician–and Sharon, the America-skeptic right wing nutjob, became a vegetable at just the right time) They kept picking fight with Iran so that the latter became receptive to other anti American allies in the region. Since Israel under Netanyahu kept butting in (with American revanchists egging him on), they became inseparably enmeshed in the conflict. So we don’t really know who’d been egging whom in the long run, except it’s a sordid mess now in which all the drowning rats are dragging one another under.

  17. hk

    I’m getting increasingly impressed by the evolution of Tucker Carlson. I’m old enough to remember him as a George Will wannabe on CNN (Crossfire, I think.) He actually looks and acts like a real journalist now–in fact, he evolved even more since that Putin interview couple of years ago.

    1. dearieme

      He’d be Literally Hitler if Trump weren’t already Literally Hitler; likewise the late Charlie Kirk. How many Literally Hitlers can a bunch of leftie ignoramuses cope with at the same time?

      Maybe Marco Rubio is Literally Goering. There you are: Diversity!

          1. hk

            Only if Stephen Miller is secretly black (well, that may not be such “bad” thing among the MAGA types…I wonder what would be some identity that would be totally antithetical to MAGAness>), or at least there are well-known rumors of such. (Bryan Mark Rigg’s book, Hitler’s Jewish Soldiers, has rather extensive treatment of the rumors in Nazi hierarchy that Heydrich was secretly a Jew, at least by background, without actually commenting on whether there’s any truth to this–apparently, accusing each other of secret Jewish past was a favorite pastime among Nazi leaders and Heydrich was at the wrong end of it the most and took it very badly, which would explain many things. The irony is that many people in the Nazi hierarchy, political, military, and bureaucrat (and in some cases, combination of two or even all three) had much better accounted for Jewish ancestry or, at least, relatives, which Rigg’s book is mostly about…)….

      2. chris

        He needs to take a number and stand in line. As of three days ago, Erdogan is literally Hitler! For murdering Kurds no less.

        Which makes Nuttyyahoo definitely not Hitler because he has only sought to murder Palestinians, Iranians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians, Yemenis, Jordanians, Israeli Christians, and American Journalists.

        I don’t know if Mel Brooks is a zionist or not but the absurd situation demands something that he could probably create to capture the insanity of the Israeli position.

    2. vidimi

      Indeed, he’s probably the most consequential anglosphere journalist right now because he and Candace Owens are delivering an anti-imperial message to a new and receptive audience when most of the others are preaching to the choir by now. They both have some wacky pet issues, but they’re an acceptable price of admission.

      I credit Greenwald for planting the seeds of Tucker’s epiphany.

  18. Carolinian

    I read so much on this that I can’t remember where I see things, but I thought as of last night that the blockade Hormuz idea had been declared non operative and it was announced that the US would try to block all Iran ports south of Hormuz, i.e. Chahabar.

    Hard to keep track without a scorecard of crazy. But thanks to NC making best efforts

  19. Bugs

    I’m glad that Jost and Che were able to find some sorely needed humor in these proceedings. SNL hasn’t shined lately but that clip hit the spot. Good editing and work overall by Janta Ka. The segue from the Carlson interview was right on.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Gotta agree about that SNL clip. It was hard hitting and clever at the same time. Very much worth watching.

    2. Quintian and Lucius

      The Carlson/SNL clip combo from Janta Ka was just about as close to an antidote as we get from these Iran updates.

    3. Huey

      What was the skit? Just watched the video but that part seems to have been removed (he said he’ll show it now, then he says goodbye).

    3. David in Friday Harbor

      Thank you for your service, katiebird. All things are no longer in moderation!

    4. jobs

      I’ll second that, too. Thank you for your efforts, katiebird!

      And while I’m at it: thank you, too, to the indefatigable Ms. Smith, for consistently providing (in my humble opinion) the best site on the Internet to stay informed about the Iran war, together with the wonderful commentariat.

  21. flora

    Re your comment: The idea of the US “closing” the Strait of Hormuz was so obviously cray cray, as in counter to the Administration’s ongoing efforts to contain at least paper oil prices via gimmicks and Trump’s barker patter that I thought this had to be a deception to mask some other kinetic scheme or yet another effort to manipulate the markets for fun and profit, here by spiking oil prices.

    My comment: T’s narcissism is clearly out of control. If there’s anything important happening it has to be because he is in control of whatever, he is at the center of it, he is the moving force.
    His narcissism may destroy the world economy and the US.
    On Sunday he lectured the Pope, claiming that he – T is the reason Leo is Pope.

    Pope responds to president’s insults: ‘I have no fear of the Trump administration’

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-attacks-pope-leo-taking-credit-for-his-election-as-bishop-of-rome/ar-AA20JfmX

    “President Donald Trump on Sunday issued sharp criticism of Pope Leo XIV, calling him “WEAK on crime,” and “terrible for Foreign Policy” while claiming the first U.S.-born pontiff would not have been selected if it hadn’t been for Trump. “

      2. NotTimothyGeithner

        There are certainly genuine ones, but phenomenons such as the grievance culture pushed in #Evangelical churches is completely off the rails. They won’t care as long as Redneck Chic is perceived as attainable.

        They may be descended from the Protestant Tradition, but items like the Bible are just icons for all intents and purposes. The Ten Commandments are from a movie they remember and thus important despite Trump breaking a number of them. This is the reasoning behind the Noah’s Ark obsession. They remember the story and don’t have to read to refresh their memory.

        Following the Prosperity Gospel reasoning, Trump is President, so he must be good.

        1. Wukchumni

          As our President frequently mentions, the USA is the hottest country, and it has me wondering if this isn’t some hackneyed version of hell?

          1. The Rev Kev

            With the climate-change induced heat waves that will probably hit the US this summer, Trump may be inadvertently right how the US is the hottest country.

          1. Socal Rhino

            My personal observation was that the dispensationalist view promoted with the Scofield bible was pretty niche back in the 1970s when I was active in evangelical circles. But at that time I spotted a move to organize evangelicals into a right wing political movement that struck me as basically fascist. I have seen it suggested that the growth of dispensationalism was not organic, with some claiming funding from West Asia.

            No idea if the last is true but I can say that as a broad group, evangelicals have changed a lot in my lifetime

      4. The Rev Kev

        Trump: ‘How many divisions does the Pope have?’

        Advisor: ‘They have none.’

        Trump: ‘Ha! I knew it. What a loser.’

        Advisor: ‘But there are over 70 million Catholics in America, most of whom can vote.’

        Trump: ….

      5. The Rev Kev

        Some people online has suggested that the man that Trump Jesus is trying to heal looks a lot like Jeffrey Epstein.

        1. leaf

          It also doesn’t help that some of the ai-generated “angels” in the upper part of the background really look more like some kind of winged demon/devil. That and the recent revelation of the Avignon Pope quip looks kind of ominous, like some kind of pseudo anti-Christ?

          1. Wukchumni

            After that image of him healing what looked like Jeffrey, wouldn’t he be the antic-Christ?

          2. Yalt

            I thought they were paratroopers and the wings were parachute cords, at least the one at the top.

      6. Darthbobber

        Now Insomniac, I would guess. Delivering these unhinged posts from 10 at night to 4 in the morning.
        But sleep win’t come, the whole night through…

      7. Yalt

        Maybe I’ll come back to this after I’ve had a few conversations but the Trump-voting Christians in my life will, depending on their conceptual framework, think he’s insane or possessed. Or both. The Catholics are ready to move on to Vance; I’m not sure about the Evangelicals. I’m especially interested in where the Air Force Evangelical branch of the family stands but they’re on assignment and I haven’t spoken with them in a while.

        I guess there’s a third possibility: if a theory emerges on the darker corners of the internet about how somebody hacked into Trump’s account and this is all a hoax, at least one family member will be all in.

        It was a magnificent image, calculated to offend as many people as possible. Something for everyone in there, Charlie Hebdo would be proud.

          2. hereweare

            And he was depicted as a doctor, not Jesus:
            While receiving a McDonald’s food delivery to the Oval Office, the president told reporters that he posted a photo that depicted him as a robed, Jesus-like figure because he thought it had depicted him as a doctor. “It’s supposed to be me as a doctor, making people better, and I do make people better,” he said.
            The president said he had taken down the post, which disappeared from his feed late Monday morning.

        2. Heather

          I am a Catholic, I didn’t vote for the Dems or the Republicans. I voted Green, which I now see as a big waste of time as they appear to be do nothings, too. Probably will not vote in 2028, as I refuse to vote for the Uniparty. And I support Pope Leo, glad he’s so hard hitting. I worry about his safety and pray for him. As far as I am concerned, and other Catholics I know, Vance is a CINO, Catholic in name only.

          And a big Thank you to you, Yves, you are the very first thing I read every single morning. Please don’t work too hard.

          1. nippersmom

            Also a Catholic, and I concur with pretty much everything you said. I wold also add that, in my opinion, most of the people in our government who claim to be Catholics are CINO.

          2. Pat

            I consider my third party votes as a wake up call to politicians. Mostly because the rhetoric, sincere or not, is closer to my preferred policies AND because not voting at all suits both major parties and their owners.

            I do give props to Leo. Not just because his statements adhere closer to my reading of Christ’s teachings but because I have a sneaking suspicion that it is also bucking Vatican preferred political strategies. And any powerful voice advocating against war is to be applauded.

      8. hereweare

        Trump post appearing to depict himself as Jesus sparks backlash from religious right – Washington Post, archived
        Isabel Brown, a Catholic podcaster with the Daily Wire outlet and a conservative influencer allied with the Trump White House, spoke out against it.
        “This post is, frankly, disgusting and unacceptable, but also a profound misreading of the American people experiencing a true and beautiful revival of faith in Christ in the midst of our broken culture,” Brown wrote.
        Michael Knowles, another conservative Catholic podcaster aligned with Trump, said online it “behooves the President both spiritually and politically to delete the picture, no matter the intent.”
        Riley Gaines, a conservative podcaster, former collegiate swimmer and prominent critic of transgender participation in women’s sports who spoke at Trump rallies and was recently a guest at the White House, also criticized the post. “I cannot understand why he’d post this. Is he looking for a response? Does he actually think this? Either way, two things are true,” Gaines wrote on X, continuing to say that “a little humility would serve him well” and “God shall not be mocked” — a reference to scripture.

        1. Bugs

          If you can see the comments, they’re a hoot.

          “Can we please fast-forward to the crucifixion…?”

          “For the sake of accuracy, shouldn’t trump be reaching for the man’s wallet?”

          “I doubt germophobe Trump would ever touch a sick man. Unless there was money to me made”

    3. DGE

      This is the most absurd claim by Trump ever. Of all elections in the world, if there’s one he couldn’t influence, it’s a conclave. Not because I believe for one second that the cardinals are really inspired by the Holy Ghost – I’m an atheist – but because Robert Prevost’s ascension in the church was carefully engineered by Francis. It’s not even a secret, one has just to read Leo XIV’s wiki and it’s obvious Francis wanted him as successor since at least he late 2010s. Prevost was given key positions in the Curia and was promoted to cardinal-bishop in record time. He was elected in fewer ballots than Francis himself.

      Trump is delusional if he thinks even the US can determine the outcome of a conclave. There’s no kind of pressure they can exert that could outweigh the interests of a global institution that has to preserve its standing in more than a hundred countries. Besides, they don’t even have time to exert pressure. Nobody can predict when a pope will die with certainty, and the conclave happens very quickly after that. The US has a decent amount of influence because it has more than a dozen cardinal electors, but the US cardinals seem to hate Trump’s guts (and who wouldn’t?). I have doubts the US intelligence services can even tell what’s happening inside the Sistine Chapel during the conclave.

        1. DGE

          Yeah, but instead of Lucrezia we have Katherine Leavitt and instead of Saint Peter’s we have Trump’s ballroom. Second time as farce, indeed.

        2. hk

          One of the Borjas, only a few generations after Pope Alexander and Cesar, became a saint–yet another St Francis. I have trouble seeing that happen.

      2. Safety First

        I mean…we could always launch a Tomahawk missile strike on the Sistine Chapel while the conclave is in session. Then name Paula White-Cain honorary cardinal, and have her appoint slash annoint Trump.

        I am almost not joking.

      3. Kouros

        According to Catholic tradition, the apostolic see of Rome was founded by Saint Peter and Saint Paul in the first century. The papacy is one of the longest enduring institutions in the world. They have in their collection of documented experiences hundreds of Trumps who come and go…

    4. .Tom

      He’s a gibbering idiot leading us to utter ruin.

      It says much about our society that this situation is tolerated.

    5. erstwhile

      When I lived in the PNW, I used to read the Seattle Times. At the end of the year, the paper would offer readers a chance to submit to the Times, a headline they’d like to see on new years day . I took the bait about eight or nine years ago, but decided not to submit the rather hopey headline that most readers suggested. You know, Local PTA changes lives, moms chirp, or something along those lines. So I dutifully offered this nugget: Jesus returns, Little commie, trump says, evangelicals agree. It wasn’t considered. Now, what could I have been thinking?

    6. Wukchumni

      (banter sure to come…)

      ‘A lot of people say that I have the Pope on the ropes playing rope a dope Pope…’

  22. Afro

    Pardon my ignorance of naval warfare dynamics, but can a speedboat do anything against a destroyer? Wouldn’t the destroyer destroy the speedboat? Or are the speedboats really super fast?

    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      The speed boat isn’t engaging the destroyer. The speed boat is dropping mines, limiting the navigation of the destroyer to a point where the missile operators really just need a guy with a lawn chair who can go “bombs away.” Artillery just fires longer, but the basic principles haven’t changed.

      For the speed boat, the Hormuz Strait is really big, but it’s not so big for the destroyer. Speed boats might do some harassment, but they aren’t going to attack the destroyer.

      Drones are another matter as they could introduce a new vector for an attack. Launching a missile off a speed boat is problematic for the boat.

      It’s not as obvious, but all of our important bases were beyond the range of Soviet missiles during the Cold War. It’s the same principle at play.

      1. hereweare

        “The speed boat is dropping mines”
        Any evidence or sources for that? Or is it just a guess?

          1. Darthbobber

            But if you do it that way, your placement will lack precision. Which may be a problem for charting or undoing.

        1. NotTimothyGeithner

          Depth is important too. The speed boats don’t have to worry, but the larger ships are confined to certain channels. It’s a radically different set up than being on the open ocean. Sinking a ship can wreck a route. Ultimately, the Iranians just need a guy out there in a lawn chair calling in targets. He won’t even need to give targeting information. The ships are too big and can’t stop on a dime.

          On the open ocean, ships operating with real time satellite information have enough time and space to maneuver. The nuclear option is a good example, not just for the economic impact, but with nukes, you can miss and still wreck a fleet. The Iranian situation is they can’t miss.

          A full-blown invasion is a different thing for the US which would be a disaster, but in this protracted war of fire power at distant targets, the only question is can the maintenance of the tankers and stress on the planes/our ability to produce munitions outlast the Iranian ability to replace missiles.

          I would imagine the numbers have been run, hence Trump’s deadline. We can’t keep up the pace. Our whole force has to be deployed to keep up with the Iranians. To a certain extent, firing missiles is basically idiot proof compared to old fashioned artillery. They can spread the workload around much more easily than the workload at a single maintenance depot.

          1. Kouros

            I wonder how the staging of US forces in the area would work. They can do the trickle down methodology that Russia and Ukraine have been using in Ukraine…

            1. NotTimothyGeithner

              The distances are radically different. The Russian equivalent of Ft. Hood is not that far away from the combat zone and well protected, and the Ukrainian industrial capacity not in the active war zone is on the other side of the country.

              US Mid East bases are about providing bug out sites or deterring GCC colonels who might decide to take over from seizing certain assets. They haven’t been set up with the expectation they would come under fire of more than bottle rockets since fears of the Soviets coming South.

      3. Revenant

        I understood it was hailing the US craft and telling them to come no further or risk destruction, not laying mines. Is there proof of the mine laying because it is the first time I have seen the speedboat’s actions characterised this way?

    2. The Rev Kev

      That looks to have been a regular speedboat meant for patrol purposes. But I have seen a videos of at least dozens of speedboats armed with missiles hidden in underground tunnels. I suppose that you could think of them as the 21st century version of WW2 PT Boats. You get a few speedboats attacking a naval vessel and a lot of their missiles will get through. You might lose a few speedboats but if you nail a $2.5 billion Arleigh Burke class destroyer, it would be totally worth it. But I sometimes think that those Iranian speedboat drivers have it nailed as their literal job is to drive speedboats all day long.

    3. Samuel Conner

      I think that the most likely defense of a large surface combatant against small, fast craft seeking to close range will be machine gun and small arms fire — this is human-aimed and hitting a moving, maneuvering small target may be challenging.

      The crew of a small boat could damage the hull or superstructure of a larger vessel with small rocket (such as RPG) or perhaps small guided missile (ATGM, perhaps) fire (perhaps also drones). The boat itself might be a bomb, as in the attack on the USS Cole.

      Small boat attacks were a significant contributor to the “Red” side victory in the Millenium Challenge 2002 wargame. That’s pretty long ago, but I think that the balance of attacker vs. defender efficacy has not significantly shifted in favor of large surface vessels.

    4. ilsm

      A soldier/sailor on a speedboat with an RPG or better an anti tank guided missile (ATGM) would do extreme damage to the aluminum skinned USN DDG!

    5. Polar Socialist

      IRGC has multiple types of small patrol boats and attack boats, some of which carry two nti-ship missiles or torpedoes.

      But more likely that small craft was supported by 20 on-shore anti-ship missile batteries.

      Blue water naval warfare is pretty much along the lines of who can punch harder and take more punishment wins, but littoral warfare is always asymmetric. In general small boats carry much more armament per unit of displacement than bigger ships – they can’t go far, but where they can go, they rule.

    7. jrkrideau

      I believe each “speed boat” carries two anti-ship missiles. Modern wars ships are fairly thin-skinned. On the other hand a liquid natural gas ship is floating bomb just waiting to go off.

      In either case, having 10 or 20 of these things attacking could make for an interesting day.

    8. hk

      There was a school of thought in late 19th century called Jeune Ecole (the Young School) that claimed that thd era of big expensive ships was over because of new technology–in this case, the “automotive” torpedo (until then, a “torpedo” was just a mine, or worse, a barrel of explosives on a stick–that’s what did in CSS Hunley, along with USS Housatonic.) The idea was that the new weapon gave a humble fast coastal craft the power to sink an expensive battleship and deny them access to the coastal waters.

      While it didn’t quite work that way, it did change how navies operated: Big Serge has a post on how the weapons associated with the Young School, the torpedo and the submarine, made the UK blockade of Germany during WW1 totally different from anything that came before (and enabled Germany’s blockade of Britain, despite their conventional having been made inoperative.) Certainly, small torpedo boats (znd WW1 and 2 subs were basicslly submergible torpedo boats) had some big successes, but it’s hard to say they made big ships untenable–as Big Serge notes, if the big ships can’t do close blockades, they can do blockades in open seas away from small boats–and this is, in a way, shat Trump is trying now (with the concession that at some places–the Adriatic, thd Hormuz, etc–you just can’t beat small craft and “torpedoes.”

      The Young School idea kept coming back: during the Cold War, it was the small missile boat supposedly made big ships untenable and there were notable succeses in both Middle East and in the Indo-Pak wars that seemed to illustrate this. But we never had a big naval war, so it’s impossible to tell, for now.

  23. Tom Stone

    The Joint Chiefs obeyed blatantly illegal (And stupid) orders when they initially attacked Iran, there’s no reason to believe that they have since grown a pair.
    And Trump is becoming more unhinged by the day, how anyone can believe that he is sane is beyond me…
    It’s not just a river in Egypt, as the saying goes.

  24. Socal Rhino

    I saw Larry Johnson speaking yesterday with a South American host I’m not familiar with, and he told a couple of stories to illustrate the notion of US government “strategy.”

    After he graduated initial CIA training he was assigned to a team of 12 analysts focused on Latin America. At the time, the region was Reagan’s top foreign policy priority. Of that group of 12, Larry was the only one who spoke Spanish. Similarly, he was a friend of Paul Bremer. Hearing that Bremer was being installed as US administrator of Iraq after Saddam’s ouster and knowing he had no regional knowledge or language skills, he suggested putting him in touch with his friend Pat Lang who was an expert on the region and had taught Arabic at West Point. “Nah, we’re good” was the response.

    He concluded by saying that people think Washington is full of masterminds pulling strings, but over the course of his career at CIA and State he never saw anything like that.

    1. The Rev Kev

      That shouldn’t be a surprise how Bremer knocked back the experienced Pat Lang. When they were recruiting people in the US to work for the the Coalition Provisional Authority, it was a dog’s breakfast. If you knew anything about Iraq and the history, you were out. If you could speak Arabic, you wouldn’t even get through the door. But interviewers might as for your opinion on the Roe v. Wade decision. One kid right out of college was put in charge of rebuilding the Iraqi stock exchange and digitizing it – when a reliable electricity supply was merely a wish at the time. The entire Iraqi army was fired, but allowed to take their rifles with them which soon proved useful. The CPA literal had no idea what or who they were dealing with. Why yes, this was all a Republican effort.

      1. jefemt

        Bug, or Feature? If one’s Book is Perpetual War, it all makes perfect sense.
        The last thing ‘they” would want in there is a person with language skills and a an education in the history of the region… that student might have compassion and empathy, and appreciation of “The Other”.

        Can’t Have That!

        1. leaf

          On the other hand, Trump of all people, seems to have discovered that Gordon Chang is a fraud, presumably regarding “China’s coming collapse”. Maybe there’s some hope but most likely not. After all, most Americans are not familiar with de Tocqueville

    2. Carolinian

      Bremer/Iraq/Dubya–Bush Jr. was the only slightly less nutty version of Trump. Bush too thought he was God’s instrument , wasn’t too bright and was the spoiled spawn of a rich guy. Of course Trump’s current “born again” shtick is so fake that probably even he doesn’t believe it.

      So yes our current Versailles is a joke just like the first Versailles with the crazy hairdos and Antoinnette playing peasant in her Hameau. Increasingly the jokes on everyone.

      1. pjay

        It’s tempting to insert Marx’s famous “history repeats itself” quote here. But both Dubya and Trump are farcical. And the actions of both have had extremely tragic consequences.

    3. dearieme

      “Of that group of 12, Larry was the only one who spoke Spanish.” Running an empire isn’t for lazy, intellectually frivolous amateurs.

      In the old Indian Army British officers were required to learn the languages of their men. It was all systematised: lessons, exams, a pay rise for succeeding. Some officers who found they had a gift for languages would accumulate half-a-dozen pay rises. The senior ranks of the old Indian Civil Service was full of men who took a scholarly interest in Indian history and culture.

      1. Quintian and Lucius

        To me this is deeply evocative of the old saw about America going from barbarism to decadence without civilization in between. Even reading through our more respected old literature it’s hard to identify any class in any moment of American history that aspired to or even respected a complete education commensurate with its absolutist ambitions. Maybe it’s revolutionary Protestant dogmatism, the now-debased pragmatism of old frontiersmen, perhaps the hubris born of destiny manifest, or a strong cocktail of all of the above, but Americans are not a people on the whole who tremble in the face of their own overwhelming ignorance.

    4. Irritable

      I remember a professor telling us one of the big reasons for the Vietnam fiasco was that most of the post-WWII experts on Indochina were purged from the State Department as part of the prevalent “there’s a commie hiding under my bed” groupthink of the 50s.

  26. vidimi

    That SNL skit was indeed good. Every sequence funny. Trump really is good for television.

    In more serious matters, if he does begin to blockade ships coming out of the Persian Gulf, that would really strengthen Richard Medhurst’s thesis.

    1. Horne Fisher

      Medhurst’s theory seems to me to be very Duneesque. He who can destroy a thing controls a thing. This administration acts in such a clownish manner and seems to rely more and more on third level abstractions generated by LLM’s that are probably removed from reality on the ground, I wouldn’t be surprised if some AI program is advising them that this is their best option to maintain hegemony.

      If true, the rest of the world needs to wake up soon and understand that any sort of morality, if it ever existed in US decision making, left the barn a long time ago.

      1. Michaelmas

        Horne Fisher: Medhurst’s theory seems to me to be very Duneesque. He who can destroy a thing controls a thing. This administration acts in such a clownish manner and seems to rely more and more on third level abstractions generated by LLM’s

        And yet Medhurst is correct, essentially.

        Yes, the Trump administration are malevolent clowns. But this policy of controlling oil resources to deny them to China has been implicitly articulated in the latest US NSS and elsewhere as the current long-term strategy of the US by the relative ‘adults in the room’ in the longterm US Deep State, as opposed to the Trump mob. Go read it and the book, A Strategy of Denial, by the chief architect of this policy, Elbridge Colby.

        To be sure, it’s so deeply unrealistic a strategy that one may be reminded of the line from the Big Lebowski about Nazism: ‘Say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, dude, at least it’s an ethos.’

        In this case: ‘It may be Clauswitz for f**kwitz, dude, but at least it’s a strategy.’

        Trump et al, on the other hand, have none at all.

        1. pjay

          I think this is an important point. It seems credible to me that there are strategists in the national security establishment who hold this view and have influenced our current policies accordingly. That does not mean they will work or aren’t self-defeating from a broader perspective, but it might account for actions that otherwise seem irrational. It certainly would not be the first time our foreign policy has been based on “deeply unrealistic” assumptions.

        2. vidimi

          I’m sure it was an intention with talks with Xi first scheduled for April, now postponed to May, and will likely be further postponed since Trump will still not have any leverage.

          Another wild card is China’s progress towards (renewable) energy independence. Not saying they will get there before this war is over but the progress they will make is invaluable

    2. Mikel

      Medhurst isn’t the only one thinking along similar lines. Another example:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZorjJr4DpA&t=34s/
      How Trump wins by closing the Strait of Hormuz

      “UnHerd’s Freddie Sayers speaks with Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, Helen Thompson, to dismantle the mainstream narrative surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Moving beyond the idea that the U.S. is stumbling into war, Thompson reveals a possible strategic plan by the Trump administration to weaponize energy markets against China, while exploring how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz serves American interests in the global AI race, and how a reverse Suez moment is fundamentally redrawing the map of global power.”

  27. Quintian and Lucius

    Morning all –
    Hope a proofreading note isn’t presumptuous. There seems to be some footnote disagreement; a 3 coming before a 2:

    The US presumably intends to act as a pirate and seize cargoes rather than blow up ships, as it did with an unarmed Iranian frigate returning from India.3

    I wonder how many pursuits the US can engage in in parallel, since I assume sort of servicemembers that are practiced in these operations are not in huge supply. I doubt that the US would try to stop vessels departing Iran all that close to Iran.2

    As well as a second 3 footnote rendering a little confusion:

    I don’t see how that comes about ex regime change, which is an outcome Iran is seeking. Admittedly, Professor Marandi is not an official spokesperson but his views do not stray far from widely-held ones in the government:3

  28. Jason Boxman

    How Iran, Suffering Under Sanctions, Diversified Its Economy (NY Times; paywalled)

    Good primer on how Iran has diversified, despite American sanctions.

    For nearly 50 years, Iran has been treated as an outlaw, earning a spot as one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world for its nuclear and weapons programs, its support for terrorism, its human rights abuses and more.

    But despite persistent efforts by the United States, the European Union, Britain and the United Nations Security Council to choke off Iran’s international trade and freeze assets, the country has managed to keep doing business with much of the world, a New York Times analysis shows.

    The nation has exchanged goods with more than 170 nations since 2019, even as international restrictions have fueled inflation, soaring unemployment and civil unrest. Overall trade is down, but the country has imported much needed food, electronics and auto parts while it sells oil, gas, construction materials, specialty foods and thousands of other products. Sanctions hobbled Iran’s economy, but they have not broken its back.

    The country produces quite a bit domestically, and trades a lot more than oil, even if China is a big recipient and trade partner.

    1. Cocomaan

      Sanctions never work, change my view.

      I’ve seen so many sanctions at this point with zero intended policy outcome that I’m beginning to think it’s the economic equivalent of Congress starting an investigatory committee.

  29. Ann

    Poll: Catholic Support for President Donald Trump Drops Below 50% Amid Iran War

    https://www.ncregister.com/cna/poll-catholic-support-for-president-donald-trump-drops-below-50-amid-iran-war

    Iranian Officials Are Studying Abandoning Uranium Enrichment As A U.S. Condition For Ending The War – NYP

    https://www.streetinsider.com/Trader+Talk/Iranian+Officials+Are+Studying+Abandoning+Uranium+Enrichment+As+A+U.S.+Condition+For+Ending+The+War+-+NYP/26304053.html

    Iran threatens to strike back against U.S. naval blockade

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/13/iran-blockade-us-trump-hormuz/

    UK Won’t Take Part in Trump’s Planned Blockade of Hormuz Strait

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-12/uk-won-t-take-part-in-trump-s-planned-blockade-of-hormuz-strait

    Turkey says NATO should reset ties with Trump at next summit, prepare for future

    https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-says-nato-should-reset-ties-with-trump-next-summit-prepare-future-2026-04-13/

    Iran threatens to retaliate against Gulf ports for US blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-blockade-iran-after-talks-fail-yield-a-deal-2026-04-13/

    Philippines Finds Cyanide on Chinese Boats in South China Sea

    https://stratnewsglobal.com/world-news/philippines-finds-cyanide-on-chinese-boats-in-south-china-sea/

    Philippines Says China Boats’ Cyanide Threatens Military Outpost

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-13/philippines-says-china-boats-cyanide-threatens-military-outpost

    Ukraine Quietly Tested Space-Launch Capabilities in Middle of War Twice

    https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraine-quietly-tested-space-launch-capabilities-in-middle-of-war-twice-17852

    US, Indonesia discussing agreement allowing US military overflight in Indonesian airspace, Indonesian ministry says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-indonesia-discussing-agreement-allowing-us-military-overflight-indonesian-2026-04-13/

    Spanish premier urges China to take bigger role in multipolar order

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/spanish-premier-urges-china-take-bigger-role-multipolar-order-2026-04-13/

    Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China as report suggests plans for arms shipment to Iran

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-threatens-50percent-tariffs-on-china-as-report-suggests-plans-for-arms-shipment-to-iran.html

      1. Samuel Conner

        I’m wondering how long it will be before US officials are indicted by an international court for war crimes.

        To be even-handed, some Iranian officials could be indicted, too, for attacks on civilian infrastructure in Gulf States and Israel.

        1. TimH

          Indicted by whom?

          The International Criminal Court (ICC) “is the first and only permanent international court with jurisdiction to prosecute individuals for the international crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression” but Israel, USA, Sudan and Russia won’t ratify the Rome Statute is the treaty that established the International Criminal Court, so have fun with that.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_parties_to_the_Rome_Statute_of_the_International_Criminal_Court

          1. Samuel Conner

            ICC can order arrest (as it did for Netanyahu) but US is not bound by Rome Statute to comply (and probably wouldn’t even if it were party to the treaty; its attitude toward international law being what it is).

            Indictment would be a symbolic gesture only, but symbols are not without some moral power.

      2. caucus99percenter

        Maybe enjoy some NACHOS with our TACO?

        Netanyahu Always Cheers Having Others Suffer

        or

        Netanyahu Always Calls Harming Others “Security”

      3. Ben Panga

        Rev K,

        If you enjoy spurious antisemitism claims as a deflection from crimes against humanity you will love today’s Twitter storm over a cover from Italian magazine “L’espresso” featuring a photo taken of an armed settler and a woman.

        The cover: https://nitter.net/espressonline/status/2043618775275077874

        —

        Sample Zio-meltdown:

        @RabbiPoupko
        Try to find the difference between Italy’s
        @espressonline
        magazine and the Nazi Der Sturmer’s depiction of Jews.

        I was not able to see any difference.

        Any Holocaust museum and scholar who is silent in the face of such antisemitism has forgotten the main lesson of the Holocaust–do not remain silent in the face of evil.

    2. hereweare

      Poll: Catholic Support for President Donald Trump Drops Below 50% Amid Iran War
      And that was before Trump’s recent rants about the pope and so on.
      The poll, conducted March 20-23 jointly by Republican pollster Shaw & Co. Research and Democratic pollster Beacon Research, found that 48% of Catholic voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president and 52% disapprove.

      It found that 23% of Catholics strongly approve of the job he is doing, 25% somewhat approve, 12% somewhat disapprove, and 40% strongly disapprove. The pollʼs margin of error is plus or minus 3%.

  31. Jason Boxman

    We had a huge taco bar into 9:50 am on ES futures, and now we’ve recovered the entire overnight gap. Pretty crazy. It’s like nothing is happening to global supply chains at all.

    This market is a sight to be behold. For weeks on the Twitter people with decades of experience have said this market isn’t working right, unprecedented manipulations.

    2. Acacia

      Yeah, it’s nuts. As somebody noted here the other day, “markets are a lagging indicator.”

  32. Yalt

    Apologies for feeding the Troll but here’s the latest missive from that other reality:

    Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated – 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, “fast attack ships,” because we did not consider them much of a threat. Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal. P.S. 98.2% of Drugs coming into the U.S. by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT

    Apr 13, 2026, 10:23 AM

    1. JonnyJames

      Not sure about that, the emperor fancies himself as a god, or Jesus rather. History rhymes: the Roman emperor Commodus thought he had become a god as well.

      Diesel is already up significantly. In California it’s just under 8 dollars a gallon. Things are going to get real ugly

  33. Tom Stone

    The welfare of the people does not matter, until it does.
    When 200,000,000 Americans are facing the choice of filling their gas tanks or feeding their children they will matter.
    And if the administration decides to use ICE as the hammer to make them behave, American society will collapse.
    The Beast will have been let loose and the consequences will be horrific.
    Trump is not sane and Vance will have little choice, obey his tech lord masters or be epsteined.
    Interesting times…

  34. Mikerw0

    “How many GIs will have to die to try and save neoliberal economics?”

    I have been talking to some Wall Streeters and they say ‘alas, we need to put major boots on the ground, a la Iraq get rid of the regime, and open the Strait’. That we effectively don’t have a choice anymore.

    Groan.

    1. Howard L

      This interregnum highlights the diverging national interests of the US and Israel. Trump might want to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure but he can’t because Iran’s response would send the world right into an economic coma. Israel on the other hand is just itching to start bombing all of Iran’s energy sensitive sites. Israel has been waiting a couple generations to get to this key point and does not consider the economic ramifications outweighing the destruction of Iran’s economic future.

    2. Lee

      “…if the US did not restart the war Isr might use tactical nukes.”

      Mearsheimer has made the same point on at least two occasions in recent podcasts. He believes the Trump administration would not prevent Israel from doing so, and given the current givens, I wonder if Trump might believe that is indeed his only and even most desirable off ramp.

    3. Old Jake

      I wonder what would be the point of tactical nukes. Strategic – as in obliterating large segments of the population including the governing apparatus – seems in line with Israeli wishes. Tactical would be just as likely as strategic to invoke devastating response from the likes of Pakistan or North Korea. And about as effective as those massive penetrating ordnance – not effective at all – in eliminating those deeply buried rockets. But of course logic may not apply. And perhaps Nutty Yahoo would prefer being dead than jailed.

  36. Wukchumni

    An old pirate, yes, he robs viability
    Wont allow tankers past the blockaded ships
    Minutes after they took another boat in the Pacific
    Down to the bottomless pit
    But his hand was made strong
    By the hand of the Almighty
    We forward in his veneration
    Triumphantly

    Won’t you help to sing
    These songs of freedom of navigation?
    ‘Cause all I ever have
    Redemption songs
    Redemption songs

    Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery
    None but ourselves can free our minds
    Have great fear for Iranian atomic weaponry
    ‘Cause none of them can stop them this time
    How long shall they kill their profits
    While we stand aside and look? Ooh!
    Some say it’s just a part of it
    We’ve got to fulfill the Revelations book

    Won’t you help to sing
    These songs of freedom of navigation?
    ‘Cause all I ever have
    Redemption songs
    Redemption songs
    Redemption songs

    Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery
    None but ourselves can free our minds
    Whoa! Have great fear for Iranian atomic weaponry
    ‘Cause none of them-ah can-ah stop-ah them this time
    How long shall they kill their leaders
    While we stand aside and look?
    Yes, some say it’s just a part of it
    We’ve got to fulfill the Revelations book

    Won’t you help to sing
    These songs of freedom?
    ‘Cause all I ever have
    Redemption songs
    All I ever have
    Redemption songs
    These songs of freedom
    Songs of freedom of navigation

    Redemption Song, by Bob Marley & The Wailers

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0xceHDpHcc&list=RDB0xceHDpHcc

  37. JonnyJames

    Just now from AJ live feed, rom president Pezeshkian condemning the Orange AntiChrist for insulting the Pontiff. Westerners may not know that Muslims revere Jesus as a major prophet. A bit ironic this

    “I condemn the insult to Your Excellency on behalf of the great nation of Iran, and declare that the desecration of Jesus, the prophet of peace and brotherhood, is not acceptable to any free person,”

    1. ambrit

      I think that I can now safely say that Iran, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, can charge tolls on “The High Road.” They have taken possession of said International Thoroughfare. Now all Trump has left is a series of Bridge Loans to sell. Gold painted bricks for everyone!

        1. ambrit

          That is the stock n trade of an economics blog.
          Reminds me of the Patagonian Beefsteak Mines joke.

    2. John k

      Yes, they consider there were 6 prophets including Jesus, of course they consider Mohammed to have been most important. The 4 wives bit… back in the day a wealthy man could have as many as he wanted, Mohammed said no more than 4. Solomon was imo said to have had 50.
      Btw, after Jews were kicked out of Spain many migrated to n. Africa, where they were tolerated. Problems didn’t arise until after israel was forced on Palestine…a 400-year old synagog in Sfax, Tunisia, suffered a truck bomb at the gate I think in 70’s. We were served tea and beer by a Jewish rug merchant in Tehran in 1966, his family had lived there for generations.

  38. Cocomaan

    There’s currently a MAGA victory lap happening about tankers coming to buy US oil. Seems to me that if we are a net importer of sour crude, diesel prices are gonna go up which is going to kill us on inflation.

    1. ambrit

      What’s really dangerous for America here is that this intensified selling of US crude to Europe and Asia will bring domestic American retail fuel prices up to World levels. In essence, the American oil producers will be selling America out. What ever happened to the concept of Strategic Minerals?

      1. Samuel Conner

        I think that part of the Peace Dividend that would attend the End of History, after the dissolution of USSR, was reckoned to be the impossibility of future great power industrial scale warfare, and consequently the end of need for the kind of defense industrial base, with deep materials stockpiles, that was formerly understood to be necessary. It was not long after the end of USSR that WTO came into being, China was admitted to WTO, and US deindustrialization was off the races (though under GATT I think it had been proceeding).

        Alas, history did not end, and the peace dividend turned out to be warrants for purchase of shares in bankrupt enterprises.

      2. Cocomaan

        Yeah I don’t think the MAGAs understand that a 20% reduction in world supply means a 20% reduction. Our oil isn’t nationalized.

        Or isn’t for now. Maybe it will be in a few months.

        1. John k

          Not under trump or imo Vance. And not gonna hold my breath for dems to call for oil to be rationed, much less nationalized. Granted, if one of them suggested it the rest would see boost in donations.

          1. Samuel Conner

            Actually, advocacy of public-spirited interventions might be a way for the Ds to portray themselves as “fighting for” the public weal. Don’t let a crisis go to waste.

            (Unmentioned, of course, would be that there would be just enough D senators voting with the Rs to prevent anything useful actually happening.)

        2. hereweare

          What could possibly go wrong when one of Trump’s appointees is in charge of US oil if it’s nationalised?

  39. Ben Panga

    UKMTO advisory via @bonzerbarry with the details given to mariners:

    >United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) have been informed that, effective from 1400 UTC on 13 April 2026, maritime access restrictions are being enforced affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas, including locations along the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.

    These access restrictions apply without distinction to vessels of any flag engaging with Iranian ports, oil terminals, or coastal facilities. UKMTO understands that formal details of these measures, including enforcement provisions and exemptions, will be promulgated and updated through official Notice to Mariners (NTM).

    Based on information currently available to UKMTO:
    • The restrictions encompass the entirety of the Iranian coastline, including ports and energy infrastructure.
    • Transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations is not reported to be impeded by these measures; however, vessels may encounter military presence, directed communications, or right-of-visit procedures during passage.
    • Neutral vessels currently within Iranian ports have been granted a limited grace period to depart, as will be specified in the NTM.
    Additional guidelines for mariners regarding how these measures will be applied in practice, including routing, verification, and authorised transit procedures are in development. Further clarification is expected to be provided through subsequent advisories as information becomes available.

  40. lyman alpha blob

    Marandi just finished up with Daniel Davis – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzRYsIdG7uk

    Haven’t watched it all yet, but he points out at the beginning that the Iranian delegation came with authority to make decisions whereas Vance was always on the phone talking to others trying to figure out what he was supposed to do, which, along with trying to send ships through the strait during negotiations, pretty much scuttled any possibility of an agreement.

    He also notes the delegation switched planes for the return trip so as not to be shot down (!)

    1. Will

      Marandi also said the earlier sessions seemed positive with progress made. But there was a sudden shift in mood in the final session. Then Vance left without telling the Iranians. Apparently there was another session scheduled for the next day.

      Think Marandi also mentioned it here, or maybe with Nima earlier today, but Modi’s dalliances with Bibi didn’t go unnoticed. Specifically, Iran has stopped buying rice from India. Now they buy from Pakistan. Although with the fertilizer shortages etc this might work to India’s benefit.

  41. Expat2uruguay

    I wonder if Trump’s decision to close the straight of Hormuz is connected to Melania’s decision to talk about Epstein

    1. lyman alpha blob

      I don’t know about Melania, but Iran has got to be laughing their asses off about the Donald closing the strait that is already closed.

    1. Carolinian

      Trump seems to be obsessed with the movie Gladiator and keeps quoting Maximus from the beginning of the battle scene.

      “unleash hell”

      Unfortunately a more appropriate line from the same scene would be

      “some people don’t know when they are beaten”

    3. lyman alpha blob

      He does love the UFC and WWE. Perhaps history will rhyme. Once Roman patience with Commodus wore out, he was whacked by a wrestler. Ironically, the wrestler who killed the emperor who couldn’t get enough of himself was named Narcissus.

      1. JonnyJames

        Oh yeah, but maybe not really a joke. Didn’t he want to rename Hormuz to Strait of America or some such? What next, Trump Republic of Iran?

  43. hamstak

    [TASS] US engages over 15 US warships in blockade of Iran – WSJ

    More than 15 US warships are involved in the blockade of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a senior US official.

    According to the newspaper, an aircraft carrier, several guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious assault ship, and other combat units have been deployed to the Middle East.

    —

    “Middle East” is awfully vague, it is a rather large area. Also, the statement seems to imply that this deployment of 15 ships is new and specific to the blockade, rather than including vessels already in theater.

  45. Ann

    Protracted Hormuz crisis could trigger agrifood catastrophe, UN food agency says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/protracted-hormuz-crisis-could-trigger-agrifood-catastrophe-un-food-agency-says-2026-04-13/

    Europe set to copy Egypt’s Suez Canal tolls with £20bn new waterway plan amid Strait of Hormuz tensions

    https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/europe-set-to-copy-egypts-suez-canal-tolls-with-pound20bn-new-canal-plan-amid-strait/nr72680

    Trump says Iranian ships that come near U.S. blockade will be ‘immediately ELIMINATED’

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mideast-conflict/article/us-military-is-poised-to-blockade-iranian-ports-while-tehran-threatens-ports-in-the-mideast/

    Middle East oil production plunges due to Iran war, OPEC data shows

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/iran-war-oil-opec-production-decline.html

    1. hamstak

      Regarding the 2nd article (£20bn new waterway plan), this refers to the Canal Istanbul, originally proposed/feasibility-planned in 2009 (or in 1591, read another way). Construction was supposed to have started in 2021 and take some seven years (meaning 15+), but not much progress has been made towards it outside of tangential construction. So the “new” in “new waterway plan” is misleading, and for the moment I believe this can be considered vaporware. A couple of articles for background:

      Canal Istanbul Explained (2026): Route, Risks, Map & Latest Status

      Istanbul Canal – Wikipedia

      1. Revenant

        Plus any attempt to build a Bosphorus bypass will run into treaty of Montreux bypass concerns from Russia and the rest of Black Sea littoral countries and Europe!

  46. JonnyJames

    Yves: “…However, we also have a surge of readers who should know better posting AI content, which is completely unacceptable…”

    Yesterday I had replied to a couple posts who referred to fake AI videos of prof Marandi on YT. The fake channel is called “Professor Marandi Report”. I posted the link for the channel but not an actual AI content video, to alert folks about the fraud. I apologize if this was a no no.

    There is also another fake channel called “Scott Ritter Updates” on YT. Does anyone know if Scott or prof. Marandi are aware of this, and can they have these fake channels taken down?

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Please NEVER link to bogus content. That promotes it in the algos.

      I now have to run this down and mangle or remove the URL. Was this in Links or on the Iran post?

      1. JonnyJames

        Sorry about that: It was in Iran post yesterday 12 April in reply to “boshko” at 1:55 PM.
        Pity that YT will not take down these fake accounts

        1. MHE

          Nothing definite, but I got the feeling that fake Scott Ritter accounts regarding the Ukraine war were almost encouraged by the platforms.

  47. Ann

    Iran denies charging toll for Indian tankers transiting Hormuz strait

    https://www.reuters.com/world/india/iran-touch-with-india-ships-passage-through-strait-hormuz-iranian-envoy-says-2026-04-13/

    Tehran warns no port safe as US targets Hormuz route

    https://www.deccanherald.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-no-port-will-be-safe-after-us-threatens-iranian-ports-blockade-3966167

    NATO allies refuse to join Trump’s Iranian port blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-allies-refuse-join-trumps-strait-hormuz-blockade-2026-04-13/

    Netanyahu Reveals Trump Reports to Him Every Day

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/netanyahu-reveals-trump-reports-him-155230481.html

    1. Tom Stone

      Hoo Boy is right.
      Perhaps Mr Market will wake up to the fact that Trump is Bonkers, there there is no plan beyond “Donald Trump was CHOSEN BY GOD TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
      Which means that anyone defying the GREATEST AMERICAN PRESIDENT EVER is also defying God.
      Yes Virginia, he is that crazy.

      1. JonnyJames

        It’s surreal that Mr. Market is oblivious to the emperor’s madness. But even those in deep denial are going to have a rude awakening . And to think academic econ (Junk Economics) teaches us that markets are “rational”

      2. Howard L

        Mr Market likes what is going on. The Nasdaq 100 looks like it will log a ninth straight gain and is above the level it was the day before the war started. The last time I felt this perplexed was the fall of 2007 when the market seemed to ignore the obvious credit problems that were brewing.

      3. Mikel

        https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026041321/keep-calm-and-carry-on-buying-the-dip-says-jpmorgan
        Keep calm and carry on buying the dip, says JPMorgan

        “Markets could be susceptible to renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz but on any time frame from three months out, the present situation represents a buying opportunity, opines Mislav Matejka, head of European strategy at JPMorgan

        Any investor who has a time horizon of at least three months should use any weakness in stocks to buy, says a new research note from JPMorgan strategists.

        Mislav Matejka leads the JPMorgan team and in an equity strategy note published Monday he warns investors against “succumbing to bearish views” because he believes the various political, economic and military constraints against that geopolitical escalation are largely intact. Even three weeks into the conflict, Matejka and team were advising clients that oversold signals had begun to appear and their conviction in that view appears to be solidifying…”

        CEO said “a thing”…

        1. chuck roast

          Of course, JP Morgan whose CEO just warned of an impending bend in the credit cycle in the wrong direction. You know that all these guys are shorting every market imaginable. It’s 2007 on steroids. Kind of like the early Spring fisherman off the near shore. They pen Menhaden in their circular nets and haul them in by the millions. They send them up to Maine for the lobstermen to use as ‘bug bait.’ Bass and Bluefish also show up to chew on goodies. Around here we call them ‘chahgies’. For example any investor dumb enough to buy the dip is a chahgie.

    2. Jason Boxman

      New figures suggest Iran shipped almost 60 million barrels of oil last month (BBC)

      The US-Israel war with Iran began six weeks ago but Tehran had one of its biggest months for oil exports during March. New figures show that Iran exported 57.9 million barrels of last month, according to shipping analysts at Kpler.

      That’s during the same period as the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route was virtually closed to most vessels under the threat of attack by Iran.

      US Central Command now says that it will blockade “the entirety of the Iranian coastline” in the Strait of Hormuz, including its ports and oil terminals.

      So we’re going to try to effect the Iranian economy seven weeks into the global economy being starved of oil, and also subtract another 57.9 millions barrels per month from the global economy.

      Okay!

      1. Will

        On the bright side, Marandi told Danny Davis today that half of Iran’s crude that was on the water at the start of the war (as in outside the gulf) has yet to be sold/delivered. Something like 100 million barrels. On the other hand, I believe Trump threatened to chase down tankers anywhere, not just exiting the gulf so maybe that Iranian oil will only benefit US consumers?

  49. Ann

    Trump Deletes Post With Image Depicting Himself as Jesus After Backlash

    https://variety.com/2026/digital/news/trump-deletes-jesus-christ-ai-image-backlash-1236720390/

    Iran’s Top Diplomat Says Trump Team Sabotaged Talks With Deal ‘Inches Away’

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-foreign-minister-negotiations

    China urges restraint over US blockade of Strait of Hormuz, backs talks

    https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/04/china-urges-restraint-over-us-blockade-strait-hormuz-backs-talks

    Kaine says Trump leaving Iran nuclear deal ‘one of the worst’ foreign policy decisions by American president

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5827762-kaine-slams-trump-iran-deal/

    Trump Said Other Countries Would Help Blockade Iran. So Far, There Are No Takers.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/world/middleeast/trump-iran-blockade-strait-of-hormuz.html

    Trump owes Pope Leo an apology, says US Bishop

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-robert-barron-pope-leo-apology-11821606

    Trump gets McDonalds DoorDashed to White House and then takes Iran war questions with delivery person

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-mcdonalds-doordash-white-house-b2956815.html

    “Let a couple nuclear bombs drop on us”: Trump says economy could be much worse in Fox News call

    https://www.salon.com/2026/04/12/let-a-couple-nuclear-bombs-drop-on-us-trump-says-economy-could-be-much-worse-in-fox-news-call/

    Tucker Carlson calls Donald Trump ‘slave’ to Israel amid Iran war

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/12/iran-war-israel-donald-trump-slave-tucker-carlson/89580001007/

    The Trump administration is paying trans troops not to work

    https://www.advocate.com/politics/national/transgender-military-wasted-money

    Trump claims controversial post depicting him as Jesus was actually him as a doctor: ‘Only the fake news could come up with that’ | Right-wing Christian figures and MAGA allies condemned the president’s AI-generated image as blasphemy

    https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-deletes-jesus-photo-pope-backlash-b2956771.html

    Behind Trump lies the real architect of a global disaster [Israel]

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/architect-iran-war-is-only-just-getting-started-4343006

    The Iran War Has Finally Shattered America’s World

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2026-04-12/iran-war-trump-has-finally-shattered-america-s-world

    Donald Trump’s Incompetence Is Costing Him the Country

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/donald-trump-incompetence-chaos-maga-1235544798/

    Italy’s Meloni issues rare criticism of Trump after his attack on pope

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-rallies-round-pope-trump-attack-tests-ties-with-meloni-2026-04-13/

    Staunch Trump Supporters Are Now Asking If He’s the Antichrist

    https://www.wired.com/story/staunch-trump-supporters-are-now-asking-if-hes-the-antichrist/

    1. lyman alpha blob

      FFS, a doctor?!??! Perhaps I should just ask my doctor if he could put on some flowing robes and heal me with a magic light rather than snaking a tube up my posterior next time I’m in for a colonoscopy.

      1. GF

        I wonder if royalties were paid to Paul Newman’s estate for using his image as the poor soul being “cured” by Jesus.

        1. ambrit

          Do you mean Paul Newman as the character from “Exodus?”
          That would be quintessentially Millennialist. If so, then the building in the right background, which looks like the Lincoln Memorial, should be the Third Temple.

    1. pstuartb

      FWIW, I read this threat as an intent to block all ports in the Persian Gulf, which includes ports for UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq. It seems this is intended to punish any country with ports in the Gulf that supports the US in any way. I don’t see this threat as extending beyond the Persian Gulf, but it includes every port in the Gulf. Someone can tell me that’s incorrect.

      1. pjay

        I believe Flora is referring to the US threat to blockade all of Iran’s ports, including those outside the Gulf. In the tweet posted by Yves above, it appears that Iran has reciprocated by threatening to do what you describe here. As far as what will actually happen, who knows?

  51. Anthony Martin

    Trump has neither a winning strategy nor an exit strategy. All he can do is to ratchet up the rate of inflation and the price of gas at the pump. Iran will continue its strategy of encircicling and constricting Israel (with the help of Yemen and Hezbollah) . of encircling and constricting the Arabian Pennisula (at the moment effectively ‘neutralized), and of applying maximum pressure to deteroitate Trump’s decision making capability (Is hammering the Pope on social media a sign of a well balanced mind?) Trump is so co-joined to Netanyahu, that with his head buried, he must rely on Bibi’s instructions for guidance. Thus the colossus stumbles around blindly respondiong herky jerky with the mind of an infant. What can be predicted, if Trump moves offensively, Iran will mount some sort of counter offensive. Meanwhile, neither Israel or the US can admit strategic defeat or their cover is blown. My guess, both will dodge and deflect until there is no more manuevering room.

  52. Wukchumni

    Nuclear arms in the Middle East
    Israel is attacking the Lebanese
    Things are bottled up in the Hormuz sea
    And Tehran does whatever she please
    Looks like another threat to world peace
    For the envoys

    Things got hot in Isfahan
    MIC got caught and it didn’t go to plan
    They’ve got diplomatic immunity
    They’ve got a lethal weapon that nobody sees
    Looks like another threat to world peace
    For the envoys
    Send the envoys
    Send the envoys

    Whenever there’s a crisis
    The President sends his envoys in
    Witkoff and Kushner
    Oh, don’t forget Jerusalem!

    Nuclear arms in the Middle East
    Israel is attacking the Lebanese
    Things are bottled up in the Hormuz sea
    And Tehran does whatever she please
    Looks like another threat to world peace
    For the envoys
    Send the envoys
    Prey for peace

    The Envoy, by Warren Zevon

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B544fVj1v_s&list=RDB544fVj1v_s

  53. LibrarianGuy

    Netanyahu calling Erdogan (who is a piece of garbage, of course) “the new Hitler”!! Spit out my coffee.

  54. MHE

    Front page of Yahoo finance right now:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-charts-reveal-how-delusional-wall-street-is-being-about-the-middle-east-conflict-135911363.html

    “Wall Street delusion about Mideast conflict, in 3 charts”

    “Wall Street is often an optimistic bunch when it comes to estimating future sales and profits from corporate America. But what’s on display right now from the Street borders on absurdity.”

    Maybe cracks starting to show in the official narrative?

    1. Timmy

      A lonely voice to be honest. Read the Telegraph story that Ann linked above entitled: “Trump gets McDonalds DoorDashed to White House and then takes Iran war questions with delivery person” in which he said:

      “[The sticking point] was over nuclear, yeah […] Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters. “And we agreed to a lot of things but they didn’t agree to that. And I think they will agree to it, I’m almost sure of it. In fact I am sure of it, if they don’t agree there’s no deal, there will never be a deal. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. And we’ll get the dust back. We’ll get it back either way; we’ll get it back from them, or we’ll take it.”

      And realize this absurd statement of certainty combined with another crazy claim “Trump Says Iran Reached Out on Deal” (without any confirmation or acknowledgement by anyone else) triggered a decent rally to the close in US equity markets and a decline of oil markets to below $100 today.

      So the ridiculous codependency of markets and Trump is fully operational..

      In other news, JP Morgan has an investment report that I can’t link saying that OECD crude inventories could fall to operational minimums by early May. So the freight trains on the same track and running the opposite direction are covering a lot of ground and picking up speed.

    2. NotTimothyGeithner

      To a large extent, the question is what else would they do. Crypto and gambling are already massive investment areas. Then the criticisms of the high priests are true. The financial markets are particularly decoupled from the real economy, so until it comes time to pay bills, the “markets” will be fine.

      The 2008 bailouts followed by the Obama Administration’s approach meant that bad actors have been left in charge and been in charge of promoting talent.

      https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/code-red-why-your-city-cant-affordor Sorry, if this is a repeat.

      Stoller has an article about private equity investing in ambulance and firetruck makers and jacking up prices. This is where the High Priests are.

  56. S Domain

    With regards to the numerous C17 flights heading to the Middle East, it is worth noting that there are no nuclear weapons stored at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Instead they are located at the Büchel Air Base, so if flights start originating from there, it is really time to worry.

    Several commenters have stated that China and/or Pakistan have issued warnings to Israel that the use of nuclear weapons against Iran will result in a nuclear response, but this does not seem to have been stated by these countries officially – a reporter by the name of Cenk Uygur seems to be the source of this statement. To my mind, making a public statement to this effect may help make clear to the population of those countries involved – specifically Israel and the US – just how close we are to potentially ending life on the planet as we know it.

    1. Doggo

      China as far as I know has never issued any such statement, but the Pakistani statement comes from last year’s 12 day war. Not sure if it was the official government position or not, but it was definitely said by a Pakistani official of some rank (member of parliament or cabinet or whatever) and basically went like,

      “if Israel nukes Iran or any other Muslim country, we will nuke Israel to avenge them.”

      btw Cenk Uygur is the guy who started The Young Turks (from whence Jimmy Dore and Anna Kasparian got their start). He also ran for congress in my neck of the woods in the Palmdale district (near Edwards Air Force Base) a few years back for a vacant seat but lost.

  57. Ann

    ‘Where are my walnuts?’: War in Iran sends California farmers scrambling

    https://www.sfgate.com/centralcalifornia/article/california-walnut-farmers-iran-22199814.php

    Things Are Looking Quite Bad for Trump

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2026/04/iran-trump-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-orban-hungary-economy.html

    JD Vance Seems to Ruin Everything He Touches

    https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a71005497/jd-vance-iran-peace-talks-hungary/

    Donald Trump’s pivot to blasphemy: Attacking the pope and posing as Jesus — even religious conservatives are mad this time.

    https://www.vox.com/politics/485563/trump-pope-ai-blasphemy-art-christ-evangelical-religious-right

    Iran war has some US water utilities facing a fluoride shortage

    https://apnews.com/article/fluoride-teeth-decay-dentist-iran-israel-cavities-cc1127d5278674498fe580be9f88a243

    Impeach the Bastard—Now!

    https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/how-can-we-impeach-donald-trump

    Nearly 100 Arrested After Demanding Democrats Block Bombs to Israel

    https://newrepublic.com/post/209013/protest-schumer-gillibrand-democrats-block-israel-bombs

    ‘This Guy Is… The Antichrist’: British Pundit Has Strong Feelings About Trump

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/british-pundit-trump-antichrist-comment_n_69dd139be4b0ccb589ee13bb

    You know, I think he really screwed up this time. The outrage is everywhere.

  58. Ann

    Pope Leo, in Algeria, blasts ‘neocolonial’ conflicts after Trump criticism

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/pope-leo-begin-10-day-africa-tour-mission-spotlight-continents-needs-2026-04-13/

    Trump, 79, Raises Fresh Health Concerns After Unbelievable Mix-Up

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-raises-fresh-health-concerns-after-unbelievable-mix-up/

    Trump’s pope spat risks feud with crucial Catholic swing voters

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/13/trump-pope-leo-catholic-swing-voters

    State Department Tells Human Rights Watchdog to Ignore Trump’s Extrajudicial Killings

    https://theintercept.com/2026/04/13/trump-boat-strikes-iachr/

    Trump’s new budget turns the FBI into the gender police

    https://www.advocate.com/politics/national/trump-gender-extremism-fbi

    Already under financial pressure, Midwest soybean farmers are squeezed further by tariffs, Iran war

    https://apnews.com/article/midwest-soybean-farmers-costs-iran-war-tariffs-5731e2d79ce125bfa0a667a862dbe35e

    1. hereweare

      Trump, 79, Raises Fresh Health Concerns After Unbelievable Mix-Up

      Cognitive decline may be one possible explanation for posting an image of himself as Jesus when he meant to look or thought he looked like a doctor. Outright lying seems a more credible reason to me.

      1. ThirtyOne

        “Never attribute behavior to Cognitive Decline when simple mendacity will do.”
        -some guy on the internet

  59. Doggo

    Stock market is now higher than they were on Feb 27th 2026, the day before the US attack on Iran.

    Clearly there is a lot of hope that the war will end soon and oil prices will come down, even though there is little evidence of this other than Trump’s daily statements. But the masses want to believe, and they are believing very hard. Also they are not given any information other than what the mainstream media is dishing out.

    Now Hormuz is still closed and oil/gas ain’t flowing, so clearly this end stage market bubble mania can’t go on forever. But it does seem like there was more underlying capacity in the system to handle energy supply disruptions than many of us thought.

  61. johnnyme

    Carrier USS George H.W. Bush Operating off Southern Africa as Iranian Blockade Begins

    Aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) is operating off the coast of Namibia, as it sails around the African continent and is set to join a growing naval force in the Arabian Sea amid a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, USNI News has learned.

    The path around Africa allows the carrier and its escorts to avoid transiting the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, which were both hubs of activity for the Houthis in their drone and missile attacks on U.S. and commercial shipping in 2024 and 2025.

    A U.S. carrier has not transited the Bab el-Mandeb since USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) sailed through the strait in December 2023, shortly after the Houthis started their campaign of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. U.S. destroyers that transited the Bab el-Mandeb in recent years have come under sustained attacks from Houthi forces.

  63. johnnyme

    Indonesia enquires about Russian petroleum product supplies, talks underway

    MOSCOW. April 13 (Interfax) – Indonesia has enquired about Russian oil product supplies with negotiations on long-term contracts underway, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, who attended talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, said in an interview with Channel One.

    Russia received an enquiry from Indonesian partners about petroleum product supplies, Tsivilev said.

    “Indonesia used to buy all its products primarily from other countries, such as the United States, the United Arab Emirates and Australia, but they are now regarding this issue in light of the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the reliability of supplies. We are currently looking seriously at long-term contracts at mutually beneficial prices,” the Russian minister said.

  64. Cat Fancier

    This evening I found, through an Instagram post, quite accidentally, a Substack site for a Manhattan firm called Citrini Research, with a post on one of their analysts visiting the Strait of Hormuz in person and finding there was much more traffic than was being reported by all sources.
    This is of course old news since the announced US blockade, but I found it curious. No idea if the whole thing is reliable or not – I apologize for posting this if it is not. Sorry to take up moderator time to delete if it’s a fake or of no interest. https://substack.com/@citrini/note/p-193267829?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=oxutu

  66. Acacia

    Blockade test incoming?

    The Chinese tanker Rich Starry, subject to US sanctions, passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade imposed by Donald Trump the day before, CNN reports

    According to MarineTraffic data, the ship with a Malawian flag first attempted to cross the strait on April 13 but was forced to turn back. A new attempt was made in the evening, and by early Tuesday morning, the route was successfully completed.

    In addition, on Monday, another oil tanker, Elpis, flying the flag of the Comoros Islands, passed through the strait after the blockade came into effect. The vessel was under US sanctions in 2025 for transporting Iranian oil “as part of Iran’s shadow fleet”.

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/181883

    1. Ben Panga

      Elpis will be the test. I think Rich Starry departed port within the US window of lenience.

      Per Mid East Spectator, Elpis has stopped not far out of the Strait.

      https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30965

      NEW: The U.S. naval blockade against Iran seems to be in effect, with vessels originating from Iranian ports being stopped between the area of Sohar and Bandar Jask [with ship-tracker maps]

      Edit: I’m not 100% sure what I said about Rich Starry is true. Lloyds List describes it as “testing the blockade”

      https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156893/Sanctioned-Chinese-tanker-tests-US-Hormuz-blockade

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