Iran War: “Deal”Coming Unglued; Iran Suspends Start of Negotiations Due to Israel Attacks in Lebanon; Israel Openly Defying US on “Deal” Lebanon Commitments: Iran Reported to Close Strait of Hormuz

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185 comments

1. The Rev Kev June 19, 2026 at 7:26 am

   One thing that Trump could do to put pressure on the Israelis for a start would be to order the bulk majority of aerial refueling aircraft out of Ben Gurion airport and fly them back to Europe and the US for down time and needed maintenance. Any long distance strikes for the Israelis would then be mostly out of the question and it would reassure the Iranians that long distance strikes on them by the US are over. You have to admire the Iranians. They have now got the US into a situation where they may have to face off with Israel and remind them who the super power actually is. Vance did not actually say so but hinted that gratitude is not an Israeli thing.

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   1. hk June 19, 2026 at 7:38 am

      That does not affect Israel’s ability to do mayhem in Lebanon, which is their “leverage,” though.

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      1. NN Cassandra June 19, 2026 at 7:45 am

         It presumably affects Israel’s ability to strike Iran if they decide they have enough of the Lebanon mayhem and fire couple of missiles at Tel Aviv.

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      2. The Rev Kev June 19, 2026 at 7:46 am

         No, but it is a shot across their bow without halting the delivery of military equipment, ammo and intel which would involve fights with the Israel Firsters in DC. Anyway, Trump would be doing them a favour. The Israelis have been bitching for a while that they cannot use Ben Gurion much because of all those tankers.

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   2. ChrisFromGA June 19, 2026 at 8:06 am

      Another idea would be slowing down traffic through the Strait. It would be a real shame if some mines “fell off the back of the boat.” Or, during inspections, Iran found too many barnacles on that tanker. Gotta scrape those off before you can pass.

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   3. Carolinian June 19, 2026 at 8:14 am

      They are the ones that are chosen. We are the ones who should be grateful for the opportunity to assist.

      It all sounds a bit nutty but the above–so I read–is what Israelis are taught from an early age. Also everyone is jealous of their chosen-ness and constantly want to destroy them. Of course we Americans live in our own reality denial bubbles which makes some of us more inclined to embrace those of others. Bribes and threats help this along.

      Scheerpost had a good article about the alternative attitudes that many Jewish people had before Zionism entered the picture.

      https://scheerpost.com/2026/06/04/the-future-zionism-buried-how-anti-zionist-jews-once-fought-oppression-without-colonizing-another-people/

      It reinforces the belief many of us have that the Jews (if one may make a broad brush pronouncement) were great and helpful outsiders back in the Gentleman’s Agreement era but have become terrible insiders in the Netanyahu era. In a planet struggling against inequality and possible destruction the last thing we need is a group superstitiously believing in their own elite inevitability up to and including Armageddon.

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      1. Steve H. June 19, 2026 at 9:29 am

         > the Jews (if one may make a broad brush pronouncement)

         False attribution. My daughter-in-law is Jewish, her daughter dates a young man with ICE concerns, and their solidarity is with refugees. Another friend with contact this year is doing his best to remain apolitical. It is a smear to paint ‘the’ Jews with the bloody brush. Israel, Israelites, and Zionists, lack the labelling tar of attributing actions to particular genetic groups.

         I agree with all else you say, and believe in your good spirit. But that broad brush pronouncement is dangerous and exactly wrong. Government legitimacy in the US has been severely undermined, and blame-cannons turned on AIPAC and the Epstein class would be a convenient deflection from the Powell Memo and Citizens United. And could get my friends hurt.

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         1. Carolinian June 19, 2026 at 10:23 am

            Well if you’ve read my previous comments here you know that I think the “bund” spirit still exists and that, as many Jewish people say, Zionism is an aberration first thought up by Christian Zionists and later embraced by the most successful Jews among the Gentiles in order to help the sun over the British Empire never set. Many of the latter claimed to be atheists and, at first, socialists.

            It’s a big topic and comments are always a bit broad brush.

            And as many of us here have said Israel is the last gasp of settler colonialism even as non Europeans in Iran show that colonialism’s former charges are on the rise. What I would ask though is why Jewish people in the USA don’t do a lot more objecting to that which is being done and claimed to being done in their name. It would help for them to loudly state that the Zionist claim is false.

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            1. Steve H. June 19, 2026 at 11:43 am

               > a lot more objecting

               I agree, but my apolitical friend does not. I suggested he move elsewhere, he’s got skills, but he wanted to remain near family. Qui tacet consentire videtur, say the oppressors. “We don’t want to die for Israel” is visceral. Iran sez Tik Tok and speeds up the timeline. If the economy is stone cold dead by November, citizens will be looking to blame someone. Let us speak for those who may must be silent, and not ‘the’, ‘they’, or ‘thou’ them.

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            2. F. Foundling June 19, 2026 at 12:05 pm

               Norman Finkelstein, Max Blumenthal, Aaron Maté, Corey Robin… Even Noam Chomsky, whatever he was thinking in his old age when he let Epstein arrange friendly chats between himself and Ehud Barak, has nevertheless written very detailed denunciations of Zionism and has thus objectively contributed a lot to the anti-Zionist movement. And these are only some of the prominent names that come to mind. A large number of the pro-Palestine student activists that were brutalised and persecuted by the US government were Jewish themselves. Some highly conservative religious Jewish groups that opposed the foundation of Israel for doctrinal reasons have been a salient presence at many demonstrations. In addition, I have been mentioning only American Jews – I could have listed many other notable examples outside of America (for one thing, Alon Mizrahi is regularly featured on this site). If anything, my impression is that Jews are represented in a proportion higher than average among anti-Zionist activists. And it should be kept in mind that not everyone can be an activist, let alone a prominent one, whatever their views. So yes, there is a lot of Jewish anti-Zionism – if you want to see it.

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               1. Kilgore Trout June 19, 2026 at 2:09 pm

                  Still, if memory serves, out of approximately 3800 congregations in the US, I believe only two have expressly spoken out in opposition to the genocide in Gaza. The fact of an uneasy silence existing among the “progressive” and centrist Jews I know speaks to the hold that Zionist hasbara taught in temple Sunday schools since Israel’s founding still has on many US Jews, who would otherwise be speaking out.

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                  1. ACF June 19, 2026 at 6:09 pm

                     American Jews can be quite anti-Zionist (I’m one); most of those I’ve protested against Israel with are Jewish, and this group has done great stuff: https://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org/nobombs/?form=donate&sourceid=1004180#donate

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                  2. NotTimothyGeithner June 19, 2026 at 8:21 pm

                     What is the ratio of Catholic priests? American Jews have no more responsibility than anyone else unless they are holes.

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                  3. Yves Smith Post authorJune 20, 2026 at 8:41 am

                     I love my Torah Jews!

                     Israel is a “sovereign” country that seemingly needs antisemitism to thrive, because otherwise its entire claim of being a “safe haven” begins to unravel.

                     Israel is so “sovereign” that hardly a day goes by without it exploiting Judaism, invoking G-d’s Holy Name, and branding… https://t.co/u5xJbdY45q

                     — Torah Jews (@TorahJews) June 19, 2026

                     Mamdani gets it. Sorry folks.

                     The State of Israel and the Jewish people are two distinct entities. pic.twitter.com/SB3KI2xnM0

                     — Torah Jews (@TorahJews) June 18, 2026

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         2. Henry Moon Pie June 19, 2026 at 12:13 pm

            Things are getting a bit sticky these days. I see a certain circling of the wagons, even among critics of the Israeli genocide like Finklestein and Naomi Klein, who are warning us about finding common cause with Carlson and other MAGA-ites unhappy with Israel and their U.S. supporters.

            The problem, which is the core of Carolinian’s comment, is this idea of the “chosen people,” an idea found in older, henotheistic texts of the Hebrew bible, and loudly amplified by later Jewish writings. As I’ve pointed out on a few occasions, the “chosen people” meme fits comfortably in the henotheistic worldview common in the ancient Near East. People were not monotheists; they acknowledged the existence of many gods. But nations and gods were paired off, a little like the 8th grade dance. Babylon had Marduk, Assyria had Assur, Judah had YHWH. The problem for Judah arose when Nebuchadnezzar conquered Jerusalem, destroyed YHWH’s house/temple, and took the Judah political and religious elites into exile. In the henotheistic worldview, that wasn’t just the end of Judah; it was the end of YHWH.

            It was the exilic prophets who resurrected YHWH. First, Ezekiel had a vision of YHWH’s Shekinah departing the temple prior to its destruction. (Ezekiel 9) Next, Second Isaiah made the remarkable claim that YHWH was not a dead, defeated, loser god, but was the only God, the creator of the universe. (Isaiah 44:6) The problem arises when Ezra and the boys return to Jerusalem from exile to get the YHWH cult going again, and they create the Torah and the histories from earlier texts and oral traditions. Ezra adopts Second Isaiah’s monotheism, but he retains the “chosen people” meme. This turns the Jews from just another tribe/nation with their own god into a people “chosen” by the God of the cosmos. Later Jewish writings only amplified Ezra’s move and gave birth to the curse of Jewish supremacism.

            In this ancient history lies the answer to how Jewish supremacy, which oozes from the Epstein files, has arrived in the 21st century to be expressed by Itamar Ben-Gvir in today’s links. One Jewish life, Gvir says, is worth a thousand lives of the goyim. Some of us have had the experience of having young Jewish friends who confided that they were troubled by what they had been taught in Hebrew school and by older relatives about goys and how they should relate to them. To deny that Jewish supremacism, promoted through the Jewish community at large, is not a huge issue in today’s world, is to deny reality.

            At least since 9/11, Muslims have been constantly challenged by Westerners, perhaps especially by Jewish Westerners, to reform their religion to rid it of what was claimed to be its endemic violence. Now is a time when many will be demanding that Jews rid Judaism of its ancient, inherent Jewish supremacy that began as a cope after 586 BCE and developed into a worldview that justifies the sniper-killling of toddlers.

            For those interested in the full, complicated tale of how the henotheistic YHWH cult became Judaism, here is a Youtube interview of John Collins, professor emeritus at Yale Divinity School and my former advisor when he was at the University of Chicago Div School, talking about Second Temple Judaism.

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            1. KD June 19, 2026 at 12:54 pm

               There is nothing special about ethnocentrism in Judaism. In Navajo, Dine means “people” and “Navajo,” e.g. the tribe is the people. Pretty common in pre-Axial Age religion and hunter gatherer groups. Axial Age religions with a more universalistic view historically appear with the emergence of Empires. Buddhism was the religion of Asoka’s Empire in India, Christianity was the religion of the Roman Imperium, Islam was the religion of the Caliphate, etc. Judaism has never been the religion of an Empire and couldn’t be without gutting the ethnocentrism.

               Empires require conquest by Group A of Groups B, C, D, and E, ad. infinitum, and creates the political problem of integration of conquered peoples into an Imperium, which isn’t going to work so well if you de-humanize outsiders. These Empires were NOT egalitarian by any stretch of the imagination, but like any complex society, there is a constant negotiation of standing between groups (whether labor/capital or ethnicities). There can be no basis for any such social compact when the first principle is that I am of the true tribe beloved by God, you are a sub-human fit only to serve as my slave. Or worse, Amalek. . .

               If anything, Judaism as a historical religion emerged as a form of resistance against attempts of Roman integration, as a means of maintaining a particularized and separate identity from the Empire. Its a great means of maintaining identity in diaspora, but in power, creates a serious mess as Zionism is proving.

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               1. KD June 19, 2026 at 1:52 pm

                  Zionism, of course, not being synonymous with Judaism, but as a secularized “political theology” emerging from Judaism, in the same way that the liberal republican separation-of-powers conception is a secularization of the Trinity.

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               2. Henry Moon Pie June 19, 2026 at 2:22 pm

                  In the history of Judaism, there was an option. While it was Second Isaiah who turned a henotheistic YHWH cult into a monotheistic religion, it was Third Isaiah, another returnee from exile like Ezra, who argued for universalizing the new monotheistic religion. While clearly a monotheist, Third Isaiah prophesied against Ezra’s ethnocentrism (Ezra 9) and for a universal religion based on profession of faith rather than ethnicity:

                  And the foreigners who join themselves to the Lord,
                  to minister to him, to love the name of the Lord,
                  and to be his servants,
                  all who keep the Sabbath and do not profane it
                  and hold fast my covenant—
                  these I will bring to my holy mountain
                  and make them joyful in my house of prayer;
                  their burnt offerings and their sacrifices
                  will be accepted on my altar,
                  for my house shall be called a house of prayer
                  for all peoples.

                  Isaiah 56:6-7 (NRSVU)

                  Those who like to make connections between the Greek and Hebrew bibles will note that Jesus is portrayed in the Synoptics as taking on his lips Third Isaiah’s call for universalism when he cleanses the temple. The Mishnah and Talmud, however, follow Ezra’s ethnically based formulation.

                  If anything, Judaism as a historical religion emerged as a form of resistance against attempts of Roman integration, as a means of maintaining a particularized and separate identity from the Empire. Its a great means of maintaining identity in diaspora, but in power, creates a serious mess as Zionism is proving.

                  I largely agree with you. In the Collins video I linked above, he argues that Judaism really didn’t get going in Jerusalem until the Seleucids tried to tax the temple with the resulting Maccabee revolt.

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                  1. Old Canuck June 19, 2026 at 2:44 pm

                     Don’t overlook the author of the Book of Ruth, written about the same time as the Third Isaiah, who also opposed Ezra’s ethnocentrism by claiming King David was descended from a woman from Moab–one of Israel’s traditional enemies.
                     That said, I think Zionism has more to do with 19th century European ethnic nationalism than anything in the Hebrew Scriptures.

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                     1. KD June 19, 2026 at 4:28 pm

                        Is it possible that if we search for the “root” of 19th century European ethnic nationalism, it might be informed by the Old Testament histories? And was Jerusalem builded here, among these dark Satanic Mills?

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                  2. shinola June 19, 2026 at 3:27 pm

                     Thanks Henry for the vocabulary lesson for today. I don’t recall coming across the term”henotheism” before…
                     I had to look that one up.

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                     1. Henry Moon Pie June 19, 2026 at 8:47 pm

                        Some might consider it an “angels on the head of a pin” distinction that only social scientists and theologians would care about, but the long ago transition of a henotheistic cult to a monotheistic religion has had ramifications over the course of more than two millennia, far beyond the “rivers of Babylon” to the ends of the Earth.

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            2. Carolinian June 19, 2026 at 1:08 pm

               Thanks HMP. Gore Vidal wrote Julian about the emperor who wanted to return to paganism and perhaps we’d all be better off if everybody did still have their own god and warfare would be more honestly about territory and resources and goods rather than pretending it is about religion.

               While raised Southern Baptist I’m not particularly religious myself but do believe religion serves not just a personal spiritual purpose but also a social purpose if the doctrines adhere to the realities of human existence. And that reality is that we all evolved from the same ancestors and some of us didn’t just appear as pets and servants to a jealous god. Those Jewish fundies in Israel might as well put up a Creationism museum next to their Holocaust museums since both form the basis for their actions. Red Heifers may be prominently featured.

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               1. Mikel June 19, 2026 at 2:25 pm

                  “warfare would be more honestly about territory and resources and goods rather than pretending it is about religion.”

                  Add revenge to that. Nobody likes to admit or talk about that aspect when it arises. Too “non-technocratic”…

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            3. mrsyk June 19, 2026 at 4:38 pm

               Thanks HMP, I appreciate you taking the time to write that up.

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         3. Michael Fiorillo June 19, 2026 at 6:43 pm

            Finkelstein himself says he’s glad that Carlson, Owens, Kelley, et al are speaking up against Zionist barbarism. His warning is that the existing void created by the lack of a viable (anti-Zionist/Imperialist) Left will be filled by Anti-Semites (and he’s right).

            Remember how there was talk among many on the Left during the Woke/#McResistance years of common cause among Right and Left over “free speech?” How’d that work out for us?

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      2. F. Foundling June 19, 2026 at 11:28 am

         ‘They are the ones that are chosen. We are the ones who should be grateful for the opportunity to assist. … It all sounds a bit nutty but the above–so I read–is what Israelis are taught from an early age.’

         Where exactly do you read that? This sounds like a conflation of Zionism with the Jewish religion (I’ve already addressed a similar claim by Tom Stone in detail to argue that it contradicts the facts, so I won’t repeat myself). Even worse, your comment seems to assume that all Jews today are Zionists, which is obviously far from being true. Both of these notions go beyond anti-Zionism and get dangerously close to genuine anti-Semitism.

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   4. chris June 19, 2026 at 8:39 am

      What Vance said, and what others are beginning to echo, is that Israel is only allowed to exist in its current arrangement because it has powerful friends. Now that its attacking those friends, what is the plan?

      I don’t think the current oil supply situation will give the zionists enough time to properly process their grief over this turn of events. I also don’t this mess is going to resolve cleanly. Polls and interviews and news articles keep showing that a strong majority of Israelis (~80% or more) agree with what their leadership is trying to do against Iran and Lebanon. Is the US really saying they’re going to push back against the entire unified country? I can’t see that happening. But the US and others can’t continue to support Israel to the extent needed to preserve this current arrangement. Something has got to give.

      My estimate is that we see a huge response from Iran over either a false flag or an atrocity in Lebanon. At that point, Israel is gagged and bound. The Gulf States would comply too, lest they experience the same treatment. I don’t see this ending without Iran using excessive force to make their point clear. Mainly because the people who keep pushing this war are too stupid to understand anything except force.

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      1. XXYY June 19, 2026 at 3:49 pm

         My estimate is that we see a huge response from Iran over either a false flag or an atrocity in Lebanon.

         Isn’t Iran free to attack Israel? The latter did not sign the MOU.

         I sort of assumed that the US was cutting Israel loose by this arrangement.

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         1. Procopius June 20, 2026 at 7:34 am

            I think the Iranians want to make Trump (the U.S.) rein in Israel, force them to stop what they’re doing in Lebanon and Gaza. As long as the U.S. keeps supporting Israel with weapons and money, Israel will keep on committing genocide. I’ve been amazed that the turn of American opinion against Israel has been so slow. They’re killing children, every day, for dog’s sake, and there are Americans who think that’s right!

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   5. JP June 19, 2026 at 10:09 am

      Aside from certain cultural issues, support for Israel has always been about US intervention in the ME. The biggest intimidation in the US holster has probably been the nuclear capabilities of Israel. They could always let that dog loose. Now that the dog is not just foaming at the mouth but growling at its owner, the strongest message, and retribution for the Liberty, would be to defang Israel’s nucs. The US knows where they are and probably has keys.

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   6. Ignacio June 19, 2026 at 12:08 pm

      I think that this is all good cop/bad cop game by USrael and one must never forget that the current US admin is agreement incapable. They are testing which MoU points make Iran hold fast and which can be bent. At some point they will realise that Iran will stay firm in most of it. Maybe the 300 billion fund is the weakest part as it has mostly symbolic importance for Iran. What these idiots (Trumptanyahoo) will try as the oil cliff approaches is something yet to be seen though I believe they still will wind up their game because, to be honest, i think this game will test to what extent they show to be amoral.

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      1. JP June 19, 2026 at 1:08 pm

         The US is of many minds. The kind of scenario I propose above has, historically, been executed by a faction. It does not have to be a popular idea. It just has to be a group with the means and determination. The only reason we went to war with Iran is because a, possibly, minority faction had the means and determination. That faction has now proven to be incompetent. Probably what is keeping them in the command is loyalists who do not want to go down with the ship. That includes congressional enablers. They are all down to hail Mary moves to try and save their skin. They are dangerous cornered animals. Trump just tried rolling over and playing dead but it is not working. Possibly the one thing that would facilitate a resolution is sufficient global disapproval. That is difficult because there are too many countries in compromised positions

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      2. Dr. John Carpenter June 19, 2026 at 3:22 pm

         Slight correction: it’s not just the current administration that is agreement incapable. The US has been, at best, agreement fluid when it suits the needs of the empire for a very long time. The Trump administration only dumped the niceties and pretense of acting in good faith.

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         1. Oregon Lawhobbit June 19, 2026 at 6:23 pm

            The US has been, at best, agreement fluid when it suits the needs of the empire for a very long time.

            Pre-Columbian locals enter the chat and nod in full agreement.

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      3. Henry Moon Pie June 19, 2026 at 8:39 pm

         “good cop/bad cop game by USrael ”

         But it’s not Iran who’s in custody. ;)

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2. farmboy June 19, 2026 at 8:02 am

   Monday is last trade day for July WTI
   Macro Alpha
   @MacroAlphaHQ
   🚨 The paper energy market is about to experience a violent collision with physical reality.

   Everyone on this app is hyperventilating over AI chip earnings while Cushing is quietly hitting operational tank bottoms.

   We are at 20 million barrels at the primary
   $WTI
   pricing hub.

   That is less than two days of domestic production before you start sucking up water, sludge, and sediment.

   You cannot magically pump vapor when the physical pressure drops below engineering thresholds.

   Meanwhile the SPR is sitting at 1983 levels because politicians drained the strategic buffer to suppress retail gas prices for an election cycle.

   There is no emergency valve left to pull when the next geopolitical supply shock hits the market.

   Retail traders are blindly shorting energy futures because they think a macro slowdown guarantees zero demand.

   They do not understand that paper contracts are entirely useless if the delivery mechanism physically cannot extract the underlying collateral.

   The commercial commodity desks know exactly how structurally tight this is getting.

   They are positioning to squeeze the absolute life out of the paper shorts who think crude is just a ticker symbol.

   You are about to learn the severe difference between financialized assets and actual molecules.

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   1. Retired Carpenter June 19, 2026 at 2:49 pm

      FarmBoy,
      Many thanks for your well-thought out and accurate comments on this topic.
      BTW, did you really grow up on a farm? I did. Trades usually start work two hours after real farmers. Those folks know reality and deserve utmost respect.

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3. Ghost in the Machine June 19, 2026 at 8:07 am

   It took months of straight closure for Iran to build the current economic pressure on the US and the world through the depletion of world oil reserves. If they let the straight stay open for months while this kind of disingenuous back and forth happens, they play in the hands of their adversaries by giving up their real leverage for nothing, but some oil sales of their own and the crippling of some US bases. The fundamentals remain in place. Maybe their economy is suffering way more than they let on, but that would seem like a loss to me. Especially if they continue to refrain from punishing Israel for its cleansing in Lebanon. We will see what happens, but it is starting to look like the Iranians will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If pain in the Iranian economy is indeed forcing this behavior, it would behoove China and Russia to provide significant economic aid if they truly wish to transition to a multipolar world.

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   1. Cocomaan June 19, 2026 at 8:18 am

      I mean, given that the talks are delayed now because of Israeli bombings, it seems like the Iranians intended to let trump and Vance look foolish for drafting an agreement full of weak spots

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   2. ilsm June 19, 2026 at 9:19 am

      In 2022 over the Russian invasion, US drew down the SPR more than 170 million barrels. Negligible refill!

      The draw down to hold prices since March 2026 is over 70 million barrels.

      US did not restore SPR since 2022. US will likely have trouble finding crude to restore SPR now, no matter high price!

      I am not sure the SOH running 40% will provide significant surplus over normal demand crude.

      US vulnerable until it gets fill into SPR.

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      1. Ghost in the Machine June 19, 2026 at 10:00 am

         This is probably correct. But, I still don’t understand why Iran would release the pressure for what looks like nothing (the MOU is a bunch of empty promises and Iran has to know that), unless things are much more dire in Iran than the alt news media thinks. Maybe, there are some hidden money transfers. There are some indications of US military withdrawal. Maybe that was enough? There has to be other hidden machinations, otherwise they are releasing their biggest leverage for what looks like very little. Just another Minsk lie. They have to know this by now.

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         1. danpaco June 19, 2026 at 11:18 am

            Use Alon Mitzrahi’s interpretation of Irans strategy in fighting this war as a guide and it will answer your question. To paraphrase, “Iran is fighting 3 wars simultaneously. Iran vs USA, Iran vs the Gulf States and Iran vs Israel”. Each war requires a different strategy.
            I interpret Iran’s current actions as a strategy in the Iran vs Israel war. Iran can’t just bomb itself to victory currently since Israel has nukes, full western backing and an overwhelming ability to control the narrative. Iran has to try and pin a global economic catastrophe on Israel, vs blaming the US or Iran, so as to sow a wedge between the Israeli state and its western backers. Difficult.

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            1. Ghost in the Machine June 19, 2026 at 3:10 pm

               This makes sense to me. They will close it quickly again after Israel obviously sabotages the deal and convince more to blame Israel.

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      2. Adam June 19, 2026 at 10:26 am

         Will the SOH running at 40% provide any surplus over normal demand without drawdowns? 40% probably means at least 8 million barrels down from pre-war.

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      3. Yves Smith Post authorJune 19, 2026 at 3:24 pm

         You are not looking at the relevant data

         The SPR was at about 340 million barrels at June 12. Drawdown is 8-9 million barrels a week.

         The minimum operating level is 270 to 300 million barrels. No one is sure but go below whatever that levels is and the walls of the salt caves collapse

         So we are probably at ~332 barrels now.

         Trump’s forecast of four weeks to a crisis is a match.

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   3. Yves Smith Post authorJune 19, 2026 at 10:42 am

      I do not like to seem harsh, but you do not seem to have been paying attention. Traffic will not normalize in 60 days. Tankers won’t be able to get to the Gulf, load, and get to their destinations in that time. The world will STILL be drawing on oil inventories even in a “things move along pretty well” scenario, which is unlikely. The only relief will be the tankers now trapped in the Gulf, as in already loaded, going to their ports, but that is only a week or so of gap-filling, not sustained relief.

      It will take a least 8 months to get to normal and it probably won’t even then, Kpler’s forecast, assuming the Strait opens more or less now, is for traffic to be at 45% of the old normal by mid 2027.

      So Iran has INCREASING leverage during the negotiations, and it won’t diminish until conditions are very well regularized.

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      1. Ghost in the Machine June 19, 2026 at 12:15 pm

         Yes, I agree largely with Art Berman’s analysis, but those issues are out of Iran’s control so their leverage is gone in that domain. And I suspect when the world is really backed up against the energy cliff issues like barnacles and insurance will be expedited. Use the unmined portion and pay the toll. More norms will be shed. Now, ships being misplaced and the time needed to transport is something we will suffer. But, those are outside of Iran’s control, so once the straight is open the leverage is gone and misplaced market optimism increases. When that pain manifests, I guess they will close it again to regain leverage. But, this supposed understanding and opening just delays the price spike. The price manipulation just delays adaptation and the pressure to do a real deal. We are all going to suffer way more because the ability to deny reality with the futures manipulation riding on the back of a false dawn. It seems better for both Iran and the world to force the change as soon as possible.

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         1. Yves Smith Post authorJune 19, 2026 at 3:28 pm

            This is not Art Berman. This is Jeff Currie and top execs at Exxon and Chevron.

            And you are talking over and ignoring what I said. The leverage is NOT gone when the Strait opens, FFS. Iran can shut it any damned time it pleases. Shipping will not be normalized in 8 manths, likely not even a year. Rebuilding inventories is the last, not the first, thing that happens. Steve Hanke, who has advise the UAE. thinks shipping volumes will only as high as 50% of the old normal. Eventually, pipelines to circumvent the Strait will be built but that will take many years.

            No, insurers will not risk a $5 billion loss on a ship. Only a state can take that risk and Trump’s insurance scheme never got off the ground.

            Banking systems are essential for payments and regularly get into trouble, so backstop mechanisms. Energy and shipping have ever been on their own.

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            1. Oregon Lawhobbit June 19, 2026 at 6:27 pm

               No, insurers will not risk a $5 billion loss on a ship.

               And does that five billion magic up a new ship immediately? I do believe we’ve heard a version of that problem in other scenarios.

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4. Yves Smith Post authorJune 19, 2026 at 8:11 am

   All done! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh this page and re-skim. Reports that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz , based on Iran media sightings, started posting on Twitter after this update first went live.

   Reply ↓
   1. .Tom June 19, 2026 at 8:54 am

      Thanks, Yves. Have a nice weekend.

      Reply ↓
      1. ilsm June 19, 2026 at 9:20 am

         Thank you!

         Reply ↓
5. Cocomaan June 19, 2026 at 8:15 am

   Vance is going to burn what little political capital he had on this. Why they even put in writing that the Lebanon front is part of the USIran conflict is beyond me. Just setting yourself up for failure.

   I lived in Egypt briefly in 2006 during the big dust up between Israel and Hezballah. It’s been twenty years, there’s no way Israel is going to hang up their weapons and sit tight with Iranian allies on their border.

   Oh well, at least the guns were briefly quieted

   Reply ↓
   1. NN Cassandra June 19, 2026 at 8:36 am

      Why they even put in writing that the Lebanon front is part of the USIran conflict is beyond me.

      Because Iran wanted it to be there spelled out explicitly?

      Reply ↓
      1. tegnost June 19, 2026 at 9:19 am

         It got us to friday…

         Reply ↓
      2. Expat2uruguay June 19, 2026 at 9:46 am

         Because market manipulation.

         Reply ↓
   2. pjay June 19, 2026 at 9:06 am

      Alternative wording:

      “… there’s no way Iran and its ally Hezbollah are going to hang up their weapons and sit tight with Israel blowing s**t up *within* the borders of southern Lebanon.”

      So they insisted on including Lebanon in the “deal.” The ball is now in the US court.

      Reply ↓
   3. redleg June 19, 2026 at 10:11 am

      Alternatively, his sudden growth of a spine might buy him new political capital. If so, will it be more than he burns?

      Reply ↓
   4. Yves Smith Post authorJune 19, 2026 at 10:48 am

      Because Iran holds the whip.

      Reply ↓
6. Ben Oldfield June 19, 2026 at 8:26 am

   Has the US considered what would happen if the US empties the reserve.

   Reply ↓
   1. tegnost June 19, 2026 at 9:06 am

      In Never let a Crisis go to Wasteland the elect would rather reign in hell rather than serve in heaven.

      Reply ↓
      1. LifelongLib June 19, 2026 at 4:24 pm

         I’m not as impressed as some here by the alternatives. Reign or serve we’re still in Hell.

         Reply ↓
   2. Paradox of Unrealized Power June 19, 2026 at 11:15 am

      Has Israel considered what would happen if the US empties the reserve?

      Why either country believe they will get a better deal a few weeks out is beyond me–my guess is that Israel is just trying to test its limits and will soon back down, given that the alternative for it is catastrophic.

      But then, I also thought that Iran would run a large missile attack on Israel tonight, and the complete lack of preparations for one suggest that isn’t happening either, so I am hardly a star analyst…

      Reply ↓
      1. KD June 19, 2026 at 2:28 pm

         Israel doesn’t care if the oil markets blow up. They are fighting for the supremacy of Israel in the Middle East, and if Iran succeeds, Israel will diminish and ultimately either disappear or evolve into something unrecognizable to its current leadership. If you are in a knife fight with an opponent intent on killing you, you don’t stop to check how your stock portfolio is performing. (This is the same reason Iran probably doesn’t care if the oil markets blow up, and America does, because America has no real national stake in whether Iran or Israel prevails. Yeah, if Iran wins, America looks stupid & weak and maybe oil costs an additional $1 a barrel, but that’s less than the mark up you’ll see on Windows 12.)

         Reply ↓
         1. Paradox of Unrealized Power June 19, 2026 at 2:50 pm

            Thanks for the reply, and sorry, but I was too busy being glib to express myself clearly. I should have written, “Has Israel considered what would happen if it pushes the US to the point that the US cannot defend Israel, even if it wants to?” Because if the US truly gets pushed to that point, both US and Israel will have lost all leverage after having lost all goodwill, trust, and even the bare minimum amount of respect, and the end result will be catastrophic for both. Meanwhile, the upside for what it is currently doing in Lebanon is minimal. The risk/reward is heavily lopsided against it (and just to be clear, this has nothing to do with what I think should happen–I am trying to analyze dispassionately).

            And then the key part of my post: I was even more certain that Iran would tonight actually launch a large (mid double-digit) set of missile attacks tonight aiming in particular at US and Israeli bases, the remaining radar, and any of the early warning systems that are along the main paths. This is clearly not going to happen based on the lack of indicators so far, so take my above analysis with a huge grain of salt.

            Reply ↓
         2. Paradox of Unrealized Power June 19, 2026 at 3:00 pm

            Just to maybe belabor the point a bit: Israel has largely acted as if it doesn’t need to deal with the consequences of its actions, and over the past couple of decades, it really didn’t need to do so.

            Now it should be, I think, very clear that it will need to bear at least some adverse consequences, and this should have changed its actions–if not after True Promise 1, then definitely after True Promise 2. Even if it wasn’t obvious at that point, then the events of March and April should have really clarified things: the US can abet Israel and even blunt some attacks, but it cannot do much more.

            And so driving the US to the point that it cannot even deter Iran or reduce the effectiveness of Iranian attacks is not some brilliant Israeli strategy, it is outright suicide–and to pursue a suicidal policy to look tough or to grab a bit of unnecessary land at a time that your own army is saying that this is untenable is nuts.

            Reply ↓
   3. Christian B June 19, 2026 at 11:34 am

      Ha! The US never considers bad things happening until they happen!

      I was born a Cassandra. What am I seeing? I am seeing a low interest rates that will need to be raised, an oil crisis we have never seen before, and a climate shift that will cause billions in economic damage and death this year.

      I am just waiting for the socialism that arises after we go through all the hardship.

      And I pray for all the people we let die because Trump is a cuck to Nutenyahooo.

      Reply ↓
7. The Rev Kev June 19, 2026 at 8:30 am

   I suspect that a major reason why Israel does not want to desert those security zones is because being in their possession, they will be able to divert the waters of those rivers in those zones – like the Litani river – towards Israel which will become more important due to climate change. I seem to recall that Israel was doing this when they occupied southern Lebanon before Hezbollah kicked them out at the turn of the century. I recall too that during the 2006 war, Netanyahu sent the IDF to that river to try to make some sort of territorial claim on it but which never worked.

   Reply ↓
   1. johnnyme June 19, 2026 at 9:22 am

      Another major reason is control of the Qana offshore gas field:

      Israel Moves to Take Control of Lebanon’s Offshore Gas Dream

      Researcher Ahmad Baydoun says Israel’s newly declared “Forward Defense Zone” in south Lebanon effectively folds the Qana gas field into its control, despite Lebanon’s rights under the 2022 U.S.-brokered maritime deal.

      Qana straddles Lebanon’s maritime border and was once estimated to hold up to 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas — enough to rival major fields that helped make Israel energy self-sufficient and an exporter, and generate $20-40 billion.

      Reply ↓
      1. flora June 19, 2026 at 9:56 am

         Gaza also has an offshore oil field. What a coincidence.

         Reply ↓
         1. southern appalachian June 19, 2026 at 1:29 pm

            So in fact a resource war.

            And a chance to test autonomous systems. Don’t know but assume the tech oligarchs are well versed on a jackpot and everything from data centers (per NC) to MIC disruption to widespread testing – at least, attempts at widespread testing – of facial recognition via consumer products to remarkable increases in ICE budgets are all in the line of how do we maintain our position when things break. And they will need massive amounts of energy to power the system.

            Can you really trust your security detail? That sort of thing could drive a lot of energy and capital.

            Anyway, would make the election of someone like Platner a big issue, as the infrastructure isn’t all in place yet.

            Well, stretched my legs a bit on this one. A resource war, maybe stop there.

            Reply ↓
            1. KD June 19, 2026 at 2:33 pm

               So in fact a resource war.

               No, organized banditry. Steal the land, steal the resources, and kill or forcible remove the inhabitants.

               Reply ↓
8. Victor Sciamarelli June 19, 2026 at 8:35 am

   Now that we are at the point of meaningful negotiations to end this war, I think it’s worth going beyond Israel’s intransigence over Lebanon and complete the picture.

   Israel started the June 2025 war and it initiated the war on Feb 28, 2026, as well as assassinated 52 top Iranian leaders. Moreover, Israel has had its hands around Iran’s throat for decades. It sabotaged the JCPOA, spread lies about Iran’s imminent nuke, pushed for sanctions, and for decades pushed for war against Iran. Meanwhile, however you characterize Hezbollah, it doesn’t compare to the Israel’s genocide.

   Demanding Israel pull back within its borders is hardly a big ask coming from Iran. If anything Israel should be on the hook for reparations to Iran. Numerous Zionist billionaires support Israel’s aggressive policies, the Friends of the IDF organization, AIPAC, and politicians like Netanyahu, etc.
   Major Israel donor Larry Ellison is worth more than $200 billion. If Israel is handed a reparations bill, he and a few others could handle most of it seeing that they support Israel’s wars and genocide.

   Trump has made it clear he understands the economic disaster facing the global economy, and that there is no military solution. He only needs to read the riot act to Netanyahu and get him in line.

   Reply ↓
   1. leaf June 19, 2026 at 9:23 am

      @ripplebrain has a plausible interpretation of what’s going on that might be worth considering:

      https://nitter.poast.org/ripplebrain/status/2067925556226638066

      “Option 1: The Trump admin (Vance has been chosen for this) came out swinging against the Israelis because they need to present a credible threat that they’ll punish them for refusing to play ball and adhere to the ceasefire in Lebanon

      Option 2: It’s all one big coordinated plan to give the Israeli government someone to blame (Trump) for withdrawing from Lebanon rather than admit failure

      Option 3: It’s a coordinated effort between anti-Likud factions within Israel and the Trump admin to pin Israeli failures on Netanyahu and remove him

      In Option 2 they’ll need to performatively refuse to adhere to the ceasefire for a week or two before pretending like Trump gave them no choice

      All three options could involve the cooperation of Zionist elements both in the US and Israel. The Iran/Lebanon strategy has been a failure and even the Zionists should be able to see this. Doubling down will just do more damage to Israel at this point, though they have to keep demanding more violence to satiate the bloodlust of their domestic audience”

      Now which of these is the most likely scenario? That remains to be seen

      Reply ↓
      1. Yalt June 19, 2026 at 10:08 am

         Option 4: It was an Iranian demand and they’re holding the whip.

         Reply ↓
         1. Yves Smith Post authorJune 19, 2026 at 10:54 am

            Haha, see my similar comment above!

            Reply ↓
   2. JP June 19, 2026 at 1:25 pm

      Reading the riot act will not work. There has to be a concrete demonstration of intent.

      Reply ↓
   3. Mikel June 19, 2026 at 1:58 pm

      Maybe some other big countries should join in on pressure on Israel? Some added weight.
      USA isn’t their only trading partner.

      Reply ↓
9. Tom Stone June 19, 2026 at 9:01 am

   This weakens Trump domestically as well, the attacks will be coming both from the Zionists and a Legal establishment that has been sharpening their knives since Trump started dismantling the Rule of Law.
   And the reality of Iran having the World Economy by the throat is not something these factions can ignore for long.
   Bet on stupidity winning out.
   It’s going to be a lively Summer.

   Reply ↓
10. Verifyfirst June 19, 2026 at 9:03 am

    If Trump really is terrified of being blamed (now and by history) for causing a global economic collapse–as a severe narcissist might be, if humiliation is worse than death for those types–then outsourcing the dirty work with Israel to Vance is probably a good move–Vance presumably does not know or much care what Kompromat Israel has on Trump. I have a hard time seeing Trump actually cutting off actual support for Israel, but Vance might.

    Or they can both stand back and point at Israel for causing a global crash–i.e., “we did our part with the MOU, this is now Israel causing the collapse”. I have been suggesting we call the inflation, present and incoming, the “Israel Tax”, cuz that’s what it is.

    Reply ↓
    1. tegnost June 19, 2026 at 9:14 am

       Rinsing and repeating the good cop bad cop theme.
       It’s minsk all over again where all olive branches are simply to buy time.
       Usrael is agreement incapable and Iran will be blamed.

       Reply ↓
       1. tet vet June 19, 2026 at 11:08 am

          We often reflect on Mark Twain’s observation that: “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes”. What do we know for certain from studying history. We compare the current war with Iran to Vietnam. A quagmire with certain other similarities, but with one huge difference. The Vietnam war lasted from 1954 until 1975 before it was finally resolved. The war with Iran is now what, on again and off again, for a year. The Vietnamese did finally enter into negotiations for peace, but never were there any discussions of a ceasefire. The fighting continued until the war was ended. Same with Afghanistan for about the same period of time. Two historical examples of how to win a war with the US. The question of the day now is why doesn’t Iran see what you so clearly see. This is Trump USA rope a dope and nothing more – minsk all over as you call it. So the bottom line is that we need to get over it – there will be no negotiated settlement…period! Iran leadership is either very foolish (they feel they can become stronger by playing this game) or very foolish (if they want it to go on for as long as my two examples). I have no idea what the outcome will be but I think we are looking at a much longer conflict than anyone is penciling in right now. Personally I think the Iran leadership knows what I say is true and are merely hoping that jawboning now will get them at least one valuable benefit (some cash and/or whatever sanctions relief they can) while they prepare to fight again until the end. Unfortunately, discussions of an actual path to peace is merely Kabuki.

          Reply ↓
          1. Jason Boxman June 19, 2026 at 1:01 pm

             What’s foolish though? Iran can reach for the whip at any time. If it gets what it wants by negotiation, so much the better, as Iran is not being bombed. If not, they can reach out and touch Israel, American forces, and the Gulf countries quite effectively.

             How dire our future is revolves around when and whether Trump can leash Netanyahu. And I guess this means I’ll ultimately be forced to memorize how to spell his name, sigh.

             Reply ↓
       2. Paradox of Unrealized Power June 19, 2026 at 11:18 am

          To what end? Blowing your own brains out so that you can blame your ex is not a winning strategy. It isn’t even a consolation prize.

          Reply ↓
    2. Lefty Godot June 19, 2026 at 10:43 am

       Vance being Israel-unfriendly is probably Trump’s greatest protection against a Mossad-concocted assassination attempt. Let’s just hope Vance’s Secret Service detail is competent. The imagination quails to think of who Trump might pick if a replacement VP is needed.

       Reply ↓
       1. John k June 19, 2026 at 12:42 pm

          If you want Johnson both have to go.

          Reply ↓
          1. Henry Moon Pie June 19, 2026 at 3:28 pm

             That’s a frightening, but plausible, thought.

             Reply ↓
11. Jim Thomas June 19, 2026 at 9:15 am

    It is 78 years late for the US to stop supporting the genocidal, terrorist, thieving, lying state of Israel. Tell Israel goodbye and withdraw all our troops, other personnel and assets from the Middle East. If Israel wants to continue to wage war against its neighbors, it can do so without US support of and kind – no financial support, no military support, no political support, no diplomatic support. Let Israel learn the hard way that its ability to fight is much smaller than the big mouths of its leaders.

    Reply ↓
    1. bassmule June 19, 2026 at 11:57 am

       According to Track AIPAC, Trump has received more than $230 million in campaign contributions from pro-Israel groups. This is the only explanation I can give for his unwillingness to cut off military aid to Israel. I find it odd that for all his bluster Trump stays bought, even at the cost of wrecking not just the U.S. but the global economy.

       https://www.trackaipac.com/states/archives?rq=trump

       Reply ↓
       1. Pogo Here June 20, 2026 at 12:30 pm

          A good politician is one who stays bought.

          Reply ↓
          1. flora June 20, 2026 at 12:36 pm

             And if they don’t stay bought…..?

             Reply ↓
       2. flora June 20, 2026 at 12:35 pm

          Then there’s Bibi’s gift to T of a golden pager. Not a threat or anything like that. / ;)

          https://www.timesofisrael.com/pms-office-confirms-netanyahu-gifted-trump-a-golden-pager-at-white-house-meeting/

          Reply ↓
12. pjay June 19, 2026 at 9:26 am

    In reading Sam Husseini’s brief post on ‘When Presidents Clashed with Imperial Israel,’ a few thoughts struck me. First, he left out the very relevant example of Reagan’s clash with Begin over Lebanon in 1982, which has often been cited to illustrate what a President *could* do to contain Israel if he wanted. But I am also impressed – and not in a good way – with the degree of open resistance to Trump by the shills for Zionism in his own party and in the conservative media. These are people (Graham, Cruz, etc.) who are scared sh**tless of challenging Trump on any other issue. To me, it seems today that as the views of Israel have become increasingly negative among the majority, the power of the Israel Lobby has never been greater among political and media elites.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian June 19, 2026 at 9:34 am

       Guess we will have to send them a message.

       Reply ↓
13. .Tom June 19, 2026 at 9:32 am

    Trump on Iran’s missiles:

    “I’m saying that if other countries have them, it’s a little bit unfair for them not to have some. A ballistic missile is not the same as what we’re talking about when we talk nuclear. But if Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and they all have some, I would say in relative proportion I think it’s ok.”

    turning Israel’s insistence on nuclear as the pretext for war against them.

    Reply ↓
14. JMH June 19, 2026 at 9:32 am

    Israel will not leave Lebanon until compelled to do so. How that is to happen, if it is to happen at all, is in the hands of Iran and the US. Should Israel be forced to retreat to its borders, then what? Peace and brotherhood? As it stands, is Hormuz closed? Open? Neither one nor the other? The clock ticks as the last of the oil reserves drain away. The MOU was signed with a view to avert the economic consequences of reducing the lifeblood of the world economy to a trickle. Looks to me that Israel swatted the ball right back to Trump and Iran. (Only a little repentant about the mixed metaphors.) Iran can let the missiles fly and may well do so. Trump?

    Reply ↓
    1. redleg June 19, 2026 at 10:18 am

       And if they are compelled, who will they assassinate and who will be blamed for doing it?

       Reply ↓
    2. John Wright June 19, 2026 at 11:24 pm

       It is interesting to read Wikipedia’s description of Israel’s borders.

       The borders are “flexibly” defined in many cases.

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_Israel

       “Only two of Israel’s five total potential land borders are internationally recognized and uncontested, while the other three remain disputed; the majority of its border disputes are rooted in territorial changes that came about as a result of the 1967 Arab–Israeli War,”

       So having Israel “retreat to its borders” is not without ambiguity.

       Reply ↓
15. Carolinian June 19, 2026 at 9:32 am

    Fresh news says another Lebanon ceasefire has been announced.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ad95de96-4849-479e-b4e5-c5f15fcad581

    Reply ↓
    1. Yalt June 19, 2026 at 9:57 am

       And, per Nawfal, broken five minutes it went into effect.

       Reply ↓
       1. Yalt June 19, 2026 at 10:02 am

          Ugh, can’t write today. Five minutes after it went into effect.

          Another ceasefire with Israeli characteristics. “A cease fire does not mean ceasing fire, it means not escalating the attacks.”

          Reply ↓
          1. NN Cassandra June 19, 2026 at 10:14 am

             As the saying goes, ceasefire with Israel means you cease and Israel fires.

             Reply ↓
             1. n June 19, 2026 at 11:05 pm

                Its funny but Israel’s government put out a statement literally saying a cease fire does not mean that they cease fire, but rather that they do not escalate!

                Reply ↓
    2. johnnyme June 19, 2026 at 10:20 am

       Southern Lebanon hit by at least 12 Israeli strikes since ceasefire

       At least 12 Israeli air strikes and ongoing artillery shelling have been reported in southern Lebanon since a ceasefire was reported to have taken effect at 4pm local time today (13:00 GMT).

       Local time air strikes (UTC+3):

       16:00 – Air strike on Kfar Reman
       16:05 – Air strike on Nabatieh al-Fawqa
       16:10 – Air strike on Kfar Sir
       16:14 – Second air strike on Kfar Sir
       16:17 – Air strike on the Nabatieh–Zibdin–Choukin area
       16:20 – Second air strike on Nabatieh al-Fawqa
       16:25 – Third air strike on Nabatieh al-Fawqa
       16:25 – Air strike on Jabal al-Rafie
       16:36 – Air strike on al-Rayhan
       16:41 – Air strike on Adshit
       16:41 – Air strike on Masir Habboush
       16:45 – Third air strike on Kfar Sir

       In addition, continuous artillery shelling has been reported in Nabatieh and the surrounding areas since 16:48 local time.

       Reply ↓
       1. The Rev Kev June 19, 2026 at 10:21 am

          Yep. Sounds like an Israeli ceasefire to me.

          Reply ↓
          1. JonnyJames June 19, 2026 at 1:44 pm

             Sadly predictable. As Chas Freeman says: “a ceasefire with Israeli characteristics”

             Reply ↓
          2. Copeland June 19, 2026 at 3:43 pm

             “I do not think [that word] means what you think it means!”

             Reply ↓
    3. ilsm June 19, 2026 at 10:32 am

       “US official……”

       Explain when Israel began talking to terrorists!

       Reply ↓
       1. Pogo Here June 20, 2026 at 12:33 pm

          “. . .Israel began talking to terrorists!” when it included them in its government.

          Israel’s far right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir responds to Vice President JD Vance: “For every tear shed by an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers should cry. All of Lebanon should burn.”

          Reply ↓
16. flora June 19, 2026 at 9:43 am

    Isr is so high on its own supply it’s convinced itself it can force the US and the EU to always do its bidding no matter what, imo. There’s a Wile E. Coyote moment ahead.

    Tucker and Piers Morgan:

    Trump Finally Puts Bibi in His Place & Neocons Cry Over Peace in Iran. Tucker & Piers Morgan React.

    https://youtu.be/kpKQKOHzPLU?t=3720

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev June 19, 2026 at 9:52 am

       Hubris is a helluva drug.

       Reply ↓
    2. John k June 19, 2026 at 12:58 pm

       Thanks.
       Morgan fiercely disagrees with current Israeli gov but either doesn’t know (really?) that 80% of Israeli pop agree with their gov actions.
       I’ve read a million Israelis have left. If those leaving are unhappy with Israeli policies then the fraction approving them will continuously increase.

       Reply ↓
    3. Oregon Lawhobbit June 19, 2026 at 2:04 pm

       Isr is so high on its own supply it’s convinced itself it can force the US and the EU to always do its bidding no matter what, imo

       And has it been proven wrong anytime recently? ;-)

       Reply ↓
       1. flora June 19, 2026 at 3:19 pm

          No, not recently. However, this moment wrt US public opinion about Isr feels very like the swing in US public opinion against Cuban expats in Florida and elsewhere running US foreign policy wrt Cube. The Elian Gonzales fiasco was a final straw for middle America accepting Cuban expats should always have the last or most important say in US Cuba policies. This famous picture from the WaPo of little terrified Elian is worth a thousand words.
          https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/the-fight-over-elian-gonzalez-erupted-17-years-ago/2016/11/16/eb9bdb0a-9236-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.htmls

          This moment feels like that, imo. Alistair Crooke is right: Isr has lost middle America.

          Reply ↓
          1. flora June 19, 2026 at 3:22 pm

             an aside: Little Marco is living in the past. He’s 30 years out of date, imo.

             Reply ↓
             1. flora June 19, 2026 at 3:27 pm

                Working photo link.
                https://www.yahoo.com/news/eli-n-gonz-lez-known-202955742.html

                Reply ↓
17. .Tom June 19, 2026 at 9:56 am

    I’ve never watched Nick Fuentes before so I was unprepared for the clip features by Janta Ka Reporter. Oh boy. Nasty.

    Reply ↓
18. Chet G June 19, 2026 at 10:01 am

    If the world (and the economy) is ever to know any peace, something has to be done about Israel which has transgressed every norm possible (outside of nuclear weapons, thus far). Credit to Iran for the stand it has taken.
    And many, many thanks to Yves for not only these pieces but also her updates within the comments.

    Reply ↓
19. Ann June 19, 2026 at 10:06 am

    0705 PDT

    Strait Of Hormuz Shut Again: Iran’s Navy Issues Warning After Israeli Strikes On Lebanon

    https://www.news18.com/amp/world/strait-of-hormuz-shut-again-irans-navy-issues-warning-after-israeli-strikes-on-lebanon-ws-l-10161429.html

    Israeli, Hezbollah agree to ceasefire starting on Friday -U.S. official

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-hezbollah-agree-ceasefire-starting-friday-us-official-2026-06-19/

    Iran’s Revolutionary Guards set up covert Iraqi cells to attack Gulf neighbors

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-set-up-covert-iraqi-cells-attack-gulf-neighbors-2026-06-19/

    Lebanon says Israeli strikes kill 18 as Israel says four soldiers killed by Hezbollah

    https://bbc.com/news/articles/c23ymz1n9rmo

    French Foreign Minister says France will not agree to lift UN Security Council sanctions on Iran unless it is satisfied by the terms of a final accord on Tehran’s nuclear programme

    https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20260619-no-lifting-of-un-sanctions-on-iran-without-france-s-approval-foreign-minister-jean-noel-barrot-says

    US issues new sanctions against Lebanese officials, companies aligned with Hezbollah

    https://www.jpost.com/international/article-899909

    Reply ↓
20. flora June 19, 2026 at 10:37 am

    From Useful Idiots:

    Even Hillary Clinton is Turning On Israel

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4bTMN1-5BQ

    From their substack:

    “When you’ve even got arch-Zionist Hillary Clinton making fun of you and throwing you under the bus, the ride is over.

    “This week marked a historic moment as Trump finally struck a peace deal with Iran in which the US gives up a whole lot more than it gets in an apparent admission of losing the war they started. But somehow even more striking has been the turn against Israel.

    https://www.usefulidiotspodcast.com/p/even-hillary-clinton-is-turning-on

    Reply ↓
21. Helen June 19, 2026 at 10:38 am

    Seconding the thanks to Yves, and all you knowledgeable commenters.

    Reply ↓
22. Tom Stone June 19, 2026 at 10:43 am

    Has no one else remarked on how Trump looked at the G7?
    His whole face sagged, he looks completely drained.
    The situation is overly dynamic, what happens if Trump is called to Heaven to sit at Jesus’ right hand in the next day or two?
    Vance knows his career is dead, will that increase or decrease the hold Bloodbags Thiel has over him?
    The World Economy is right on the edge of collapsing and Mr Market looks like he could use a stiff drink to calm the jitters…
    The clock is ticking.
    It’s going to be a lively Summer.

    Reply ↓
    1. Henry Moon Pie June 19, 2026 at 3:37 pm

       Maybe YHWH will send chariots of fire to pick up Trump like he did with Elijah. (2 Kings 2) On the 4th of July, perhaps? It would make quite a show.

       Reply ↓
    2. Rex June 19, 2026 at 7:15 pm

       He looked like shit. He looked like he was wrestling someone before he walked into the room. His hair was fucked up and his face was bloated like he was hungover.

       I can’t imagine what cocktail of substances they have been feeding him to keep him upright.

       Reply ↓
    3. Yves Smith Post authorJune 20, 2026 at 9:25 am

       I pulled up a clip on YouTube.

       Boy are you right.

       Reply ↓
23. Mike from Jersey June 19, 2026 at 10:47 am

    Israel’s far right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir responds to Vice President JD Vance: “For every tear shed by an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers should cry. All of Lebanon should burn.”

    There is only one good thing about all of this. The United States is Israel’s last ally of any note in the entire world. In the not too distant future, the support of Israel will become far too toxic for any American politician to embrace. Hopefully, that will bring an end to this.

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    1. flora June 19, 2026 at 11:26 am

       Keep an eye on the Maine general Senate race – Collins vs Platner – and the NY 15th Congressional District primary race. From Due Dissidence about the NY primary race:

       Jose Vega in HOME STRETCH Of PRIMARY Against AIPAC Darling

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sndmddm06wM

       Reply ↓
       1. Paradox of Unrealized Power June 19, 2026 at 11:30 am

          I have no dog in this fight, but the Platner ads I’ve seen online (either created by his campaign or by his fans) have been, I think, among the most effective I have seen in a very long time.

          Someone deserves a raise just for the creativity.

          (sorry, all, for the tangent–won’t happen again…)

          Reply ↓
          1. Henry Moon Pie June 19, 2026 at 7:03 pm

             Nothing against Platner, but around here, we remember another Dem Senate candidate whose very clever Twitter and online team covered up the fact that the candidate had suffered serious damage from a stroke. During the campaign, he couldn’t speak coherently. After being elected, he can’t think coherently.

             I also remember another Dem candidate, already a Senator, whose campaign team won an advertising award. The candidate, once elected, did a fine job of standing between the bankers and the people to the benefit of the bankers, with the dedicated assistance of former radical, Barney the Frankfurter.

             Reply ↓
             1. NotTimothyGeithner June 19, 2026 at 7:58 pm

                Other than “hope and change,” you can’t point to Obama getting close to the rhetoric and specifics of Planter or even AOC. Obama was always a vapid charlatan. There is a reason he isn’t quoted.

                Reply ↓
24. Aurelien June 19, 2026 at 10:55 am

    I don’t think it’s fair to say this was inevitable, but it was highly likely, for the reason that, as I’ve discussed, Israel was not included in the deal, not was there any mechanism included for the US to influence them. Thus, since it’s not the US attacking Lebanon, the terms of the “deal” have not been violated. What has been triggered is the unilateral Iranian demand that Israel not attack Hezbollah. This leaves the US in a deeply uncomfortable position: the only way its can keep the MoU alive is to rein in Israel. It wouldn’t surprise me if part of the Iranian thinking was to create a crisis between the US and Israel, such that the strategic alliance would be permanently damaged. As it is the US is anyway being damaged by being held vicariously responsible for something over which it has very little control. And meanwhile the clock is ticking.

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm June 19, 2026 at 11:06 am

       Interpret how IDF in Lebanon is consistent with the “territorial integrity of Lebanon”. Hezbollah is a militia of Lebanese protecting the area where Shi’a dwell.

       MOU is not enforceable as long as IDF is armed by US.

       Reply ↓
       1. Aurelien June 19, 2026 at 12:54 pm

          Because the only agents named in the dog’s breakfast that is Paragraph 1 are the US and Iran. Although “their allies” are mentioned, these allies are not signatories, and since they have not “signed the MoU,” which words are explicitly used, they have no obligations under it. As you know, MoUs are by their very nature not enforceable anyway.

          Reply ↓
          1. ilsm June 19, 2026 at 2:05 pm

             I will correct my last sentence:

             The MOU is not enforceable.

             What will open SOH?

             Reply ↓
             1. Aurelien June 19, 2026 at 3:53 pm

                That’s up to Tehran, but I assume they will want something that looks like at least the beginning of a withdrawal from Lebanon, bearing in mind that the border isn’t itself properly defined. They will also want a halt to the bombing of buildings in Beirut which the Israelis claim are linked to Hezbollah. After that, I think they would be happy to return to the previous status quo: exchanges of fire across the border, the odd rocket etc. because as long as there is a potential threat from Israel, Hezbollah can be argued to be indispensable, and this gives Iran a major continuing influence in Lebanon.

                Reply ↓
    2. Paradox of Unrealized Power June 19, 2026 at 11:22 am

       It wouldn’t surprise me if part of the Iranian thinking was to create a crisis between the US and Israel, such that the strategic alliance would be permanently damaged.

       I was thinking that this is Israel’s way to extract maximum concessions from the US for “allowing” the deal to proceed.

       If so, I think it will turn out to be a miscalculation because I don’t think Iran is in the mood for continuing these games, and it has a much stronger hand to play (although it could experience *a lot* of pain, it seems willing to do so–I don’t think the US is willing to accept a commensurate amount)

       Incidentally, thank you for all your responses yesterday!

       Reply ↓
    3. Yalt June 19, 2026 at 11:39 am

       I think it was a wise choice not to specify any mechanism. Sometimes more is learned if instead of simply presenting the solution in the text, it’s left as an exercise for the reader.

       vicariously responsible for something over which it has very little control

       What’s lacking isn’t the ability but the will. If it seems otherwise, that speaks to a failure of imagination. Free the will and the imagination will follow; once the US is sufficiently motivated all sorts of possibilities for “influence” will present themselves.

       Reply ↓
       1. Aurelien June 19, 2026 at 1:02 pm

          That’s obviously true in the same sense as that if we had the will, we could bring an end to world hunger by next week. The real question is whether the nature and personalities of the US political system will allow what is necessary to happen, bearing in mind that enormous and sustained pressure will have to be put on Israel to leave Lebanon, and not to continue to attack from across the border. As a matter of practical politics, and given personalities, power relationships, delaying tactics and obstruction, I’m bound to say (though speaking as a non-Murkin) that I think we are at the boundaries of what the US system is practically capable of doing. After all, a defeat for Israel is a defeat for the US as well.

          Reply ↓
          1. Rory June 19, 2026 at 3:27 pm

             I think it is important to bear in mind that in the minds of many Americans, particularly young ones, a defeat for Israel is not a defeat for the US as well.

             Reply ↓
             1. Oregon Lawhobbit June 19, 2026 at 6:35 pm

                Quite true. The US is well able to rack up its own defeats without the help of anyone else.

                Reply ↓
                1. mrsyk June 19, 2026 at 8:54 pm

                   Yes we can, we’re number one!

                   I imagine a fair share of young Americans will view an Israeli defat as a victory for humanity.

                   Reply ↓
          2. NN Cassandra June 19, 2026 at 7:17 pm

             Well, then it’s also almost impossible for Iran to let Israel occupy Lebanon and genocide its Shia population. So I guess it will be decided on the battlefield which one is more impossible.

             Reply ↓
25. XXYY June 19, 2026 at 11:23 am

    The second is a narrower agreement than the one contemplated in the MOU, with some items removed (like the undeliverable $300 billion fund) in return to other concessions by the US, like greatly reducing its military footprint in the Middle East. –Yves.

    The project of ending the Iran war has tremendous momentum now for the reasons we are all familiar with. This is a good time to try to save the MOU rapidly and with imagination, since any half-acceptable ideas are likely to get a good hearing and be given the benefit of the doubt.

    I like your second option better than the first since it is more likely to keep Iran on board and keep the US, with its waning but still considerable power and money, as a player.

    As you say, one big issue is how to fund a $300 billion dollar reparations fund. (As an aside, recall that Trump was going to add $500 billion dollars to the annual US military budget and no one blinked an eye.) I think one place to start thinking about is the parties who have made trillions of dollars over the last few decades from Middle East oil. They have amassed a huge karmic debt and huge piles of money; who better to contribute to a reparations fund? I am obviously thinking of Gulf States, sovereign wealth funds, incredibly wealthy individuals, and of course the oil industry. It would be complicated to figure out the details, but by spreading the responsibility very wide, individual contributions might be kept tolerable.

    Another possibility might be to look to the “resort fee” that Iran and Oman will be charging ship traffic, and see if that could be cranked up to provide reparations-type amounts in a reasonable period of time. It would then be up to oil companies and shippers to obtain reimbursement from whoever seems appropriate. I can think of a few cases in the US where bridge construction was funded by bridge tolls, which were reduced or eliminated once the needed money had been amassed. The Strait of Hormuz doesn’t seem too different from this except for the amounts involved. This approach would have the additional advantage of making Iran a player in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open as opposed to now where their incentive is to close it periodically.

    I would add parenthetically that I really like the idea that the attackers in a war should pay for the war damage afterwards. If we could get the idea into decision-makers heads that every bomb dropped and every missile fired is going to become a future budget item for them, this would be a worthwhile improvement to the society.

    Reply ↓
    1. John k June 19, 2026 at 1:27 pm

       Using tolls to provide Iran 300b…
       $1/barrel toll on 10 million/day earns 3.65b/year, or about 1% interest on a 300b debt.
       $10/barrel generates 36b/year a reasonable sum to amortize the debt over a reasonable period.
       Shipowner pays toll but passes it on to buyer. Who pays in the end?
       Imo:
       OPEC tries to price oil at the max price the world can pay without going into recession.
       If this has been correctly set, then the price can’t rise and the gulf exporters will have to accept a lower net price for their product, actual world price remains the same. Of course, opec member outside the gulf won’t care if world price remains the same.
       If us and gulf states have reached this conclusion they both know who is paying the piper. Granted, those gulf states were us Allie’s in the war. As has been said, it can be deadly to be a us friend.

       Reply ↓
26. Anthony Martin June 19, 2026 at 11:32 am

    Iran seems to be waging war on three fronts: 1) It seems well on its way to securing the Arabian Pennisula; 2) It seems to have made headway regarding its objectives in the court of US public opinion: a) Trump is beginning to seem more and more openly imblanced , b) Regard for Israel is cratering, & c) Support for a conflict is non existant., 3) The Lebanon/Israeli front is in hot dispute. For Iran to achieve ‘security’ in the Gulf, logic indicates that the Israeli Army would have to be defeated on the ground. The questions of interest are: a) Can this be done? & b) How would it be accomplished? Note: Consider, if the US can be strategically defeated, so can Israel. As long as Trump has no coherent plan, the proverbial ball remains in Iran’s hands.

    Reply ↓
27. Ann June 19, 2026 at 11:33 am

    0834 PDT

    Iran imposes mandatory insurance on ships transiting Strait of Hormuz, with fees likely to follow

    https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1157571/Iran-imposes-mandatory-insurance-on-ships-transiting-Strait-of-Hormuz-with-fees-likely-to-follow

    Reply ↓
    1. In Cold Chud June 19, 2026 at 1:40 pm

       Iran is paying tribute to President Obama, on the occasion of the opening of the Obama Presidential Center, with an individual mandate of its own.

       Reply ↓
    2. Yves Smith Post authorJune 19, 2026 at 3:37 pm

       Oh, a genius move. The US negotiators will be beside themselves.

       Reply ↓
28. Ann June 19, 2026 at 11:36 am

    0835 PDT

    Israel Asked Facebook to Censor Iran War Content, Internal Documents Show

    https://theintercept.com/2026/06/18/israel-facebook-censor-content-moderation-iran-war/

    Reply ↓
29. XXYY June 19, 2026 at 11:42 am

    From this moment on, we, meaning you, the proud nation, and this humble servant, will wait for the realization of the stated conditions. –Iran’s Supreme Leader, Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei

    I love how political leaders in Iran pepper their pronouncements with gracious phrases of solidarity like these. I don’t know how they are taken in Iran but if a US president said something like this he would be classed as one of the highest and best oratorical figures in US history.

    Leaders have tremendous ability to pull the people they lead into a consolidated body filled with good will and dedicated to a single purpose. In the US (at least) they rarely take advantage of this and indeed seem to constantly treat the people they are leading as subordinates and inferiors. Are they trying to prop up a deficient sense of self? Or are they just patterning their behavior on what they have seen from their own mentors?

    Hopefully we can all learn this good habit.

    Reply ↓
    1. Expat2uruguay June 19, 2026 at 5:58 pm

       Dear XXYY,
       In this century US leaders have treated their citizens as enemies. Not all, only the the ones who belong to the other party and the poors in general are enemies. The Republicans seem to be the worst at this, but I believe it started with the Democratic candidate in 2016, Hillary Clinton, who talked about the people who supported Trump as “deplorables” .

       And no, it’s not based on their mentors either, because their mentors are from the previous century generally where there was more courtesy. What is the motivation? I agree with the many people who say that it is to keep the people divided. To turn their voters against those who voted for the other party, and vice versa. This is because they don’t want the people to unite against their donors, especially the wealthiest 1%. Both parties have the same donors.

       Also, this maybe less common in countries that have more than two political parties, because they wouldn’t want to unite the other parties against themselves. But when a country only has two parties then this becomes a strategy.

       I agree with you on the Elegance exhibited by the Iranian leadership, thank you for pointing that out.

       Reply ↓
30. Socal Rhino June 19, 2026 at 12:16 pm

    The efficacy of the MOU is being demonstrated in real time.

    Reply ↓
31. Ann June 19, 2026 at 12:18 pm

    0910 PDT

    ASEAN uses Russia summit to boost energy ties

    https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/asean-uses-russia-summit-to-boost-energy-ties

    US issues new sanctions against Lebanese officials, companies aligned with Hezbollah

    https://www.jpost.com/international/article-899909

    Reply ↓
32. Ann June 19, 2026 at 12:22 pm

    0920 PDT

    Trump says there are ‘no limits’ to his power

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5931777-trump-iran-war-power/

    Reply ↓
    1. Samuel Conner June 19, 2026 at 7:11 pm

       So, if he doesn’t restrain Israel, it can only mean that he is unwilling to.

       Reply ↓
33. Pogo Here June 19, 2026 at 12:49 pm

    Shades of Britain in the ME back in the day:

    Britain Sold Palestine to Pay Its WWI Debt. The Balfour Declaration Was a Banking Deal!

    https://youtu.be/35SygAiylHw?si=Qc2fbZsngV-zc2F1

    27:12

    VIDEO: 23:57

    The historic record is clear that British leaders explicitly discussed the financial benefits of winning Jewish support. The Rothschild archive confirms that the British government hoped Zionist backing would translate into financial assistance for the war effort. The timing of the declaration issued at the precise moment of Britain’s deepest financial crisis is not coincidental.

    And the broader pattern of Britain’s wartime diplomacy, making promises to whoever could help it survive the next financial quarter, the next bond issue, the next American loan, bears all the
    hallmarks of an empire conducting foreign policy the way a desperate borrower conducts their personal life, saying whatever needs to be said to keep the money flowing and the creditors
    happy.

    What we can say with confidence is this. The Balfour Declaration was a product of multiple converging pressures, financial desperation, strategic calculation, genuine ideological sympathy in some quarters, the personal influence of Weitzmann, the weight of the Rothschild name, the need for American support, the fear of Russian collapse, and the imperial desire to control the land east of the Suez Canal. No single factor explains it completely. But to tell the story without the financial chapter, which is what most popular histories do, is to tell a story with its spine removed.

    The real lesson of the Balfour declaration is not that it was a banking deal in some crude transactional sense. The real lesson is far more unsettling. It is that when empires are desperate, when the money is running out and the creditors are closing in, they will promise anything to anyone. They will sign contradictory agreements. They will betray allies without flinching. They will dispose of other people’s lands and lives with the same casual efficiency that a bankruptcy lawyer liquidates assets. And the people who pay the price, the people who always pay the price are not the bankers or the diplomats or the politicians who made the deals. It is the ordinary people who happen to be living on the land that was being traded. What makes this story so enduring, so impossible to resolve is that the consequences of those 67 words have never stopped compounding. Every war, every failed peace process, every refugee camp, every settlement, every border checkpoint, every headline from the region traces a direct line back to that moment in 1917 when a bankrupt empire drowning in debt and hemorrhaging gold decided to promise a land it had no right to promise in exchange for the political and financial support it needed to survive a war it could no longer afford to fight.

    And there’s a final irony that is worth sitting with. The Balfour Declaration was supposed to secure Britain’s position in the Middle East. Instead, it destroyed it. The Mandate proved ruinously expensive. The conflict it created drained British resources for 30 years. And when Britain finally withdrew in 1948, it left behind a war zone, not a strategic asset. The empire that had tried to buy its survival by promising other people’s land ended up losing both the land and the empire. 1917 was the year the old world ended, and the new one was born.

    Not on the battlefields of the Somme or Pashandale, but in the ledger books of London and New York. in the correspondence between foreign secretaries and bankers, in the quiet rooms where desperate men traded futures they had no right to sell. And we are all, every single one of us, still living with the consequences of those trades.

    Reply ↓
34. Fastball June 19, 2026 at 12:55 pm

    Let’s not be deceived that this Pact of Idiocy will be restrained by reality. These fools in Israel and Washington do not believe in reality, as Cheney said they believe in their own ability to make reality. They’re wrong, of course, and we ordinary people are the quail in the Bush.

    It seems to me the best analogy is some kind of winter reality show where Trump thought himself the hunter and found himself in a leg trap of his own making, and now Trump is bleeding alone in the wilderness without a satellite phone.

    The leg trap is, of course, Israel.

    But the American people are going to pay the ultimate price, in a Great Depression.

    Politically, by polls it appears most Americans know Israel for the culprit it is, but the Washington “cognoscenti” (if one may use that word for a pack of clowns, dupes and fools) continues to have this fantasy that Israel is America’s “ally” against the evil Iranians and Arabs, and not its parasite.

    The only real hope for the U.S. is to abandon the Israel project and let Americans cheer while it sinks under the massive weight of its own hubris. But that will take the ejection of the Israel hasbara and control apparatus within the U.S., and there is no sign of that happening.

    So, Great Depression it is. And Israel will be at the center of it. How long it will take for the Epstein/Washington/Corporate Media class to realize it, is anyone’s guess.

    Revolution is the best (and in my view, only) alternative. It’s stupid to think the Washington class will ever wake up.

    Reply ↓
    1. Jonathan Holland Becnel June 19, 2026 at 4:07 pm

       DESTROY THE EPSTEIN CLASS!

       AMERICAN REVOLUTION 2!

       Reply ↓
35. Jason Boxman June 19, 2026 at 12:56 pm

    I realized when I couldn’t sleep for a bit last night that the solution to this is for the United States and GCC countries to switch sides and attack Israel until they withdraw from Lebanon.

    Reply ↓
    1. alrhundi June 19, 2026 at 1:11 pm

       Are you sure you weren’t sleeping and that was a beautiful dream?

       Reply ↓
    2. Mikel June 19, 2026 at 2:15 pm

       What if all the countries (or at least the biggest) that trade with Israel start making some demands?
       Think that might have an effect?

       Reply ↓
    3. Dingleberry June 19, 2026 at 3:06 pm

       There’s no need to attack, Israel is dependent on the world for everything from weapons to fuel and food. Just the threat of sanctions would be enough, maybe actually ratify that if the Chosen Ones can’t get it through their thick skulls.

       Reply ↓
       1. Jason Boxman June 19, 2026 at 3:53 pm

          I agree. More war isn’t the answer. Just a thought I had though.

          Reply ↓
36. Jason Boxman June 19, 2026 at 1:25 pm

    Fallout

    Around the world, at least 51 nations host American military bases. These outposts let the U.S. project power and influence abroad and provide economic and military security to its allies. But after this war, friendly nations are weighing the risks of supporting the American war machine. “For any patriotic citizen of Qatar or any other Gulf country, the question arose over whether hosting U.S. military bases was worth it,” Maryam Al-Kuwari, a scholar of international relations at Qatar University, wrote in a briefing paper for her policy institute, the Arab Center. U.S. diplomats in Bahrain have warned of an emerging perception, fueled in part by Iranian social media bots, that the Americans left the nation alone to defend for itself.

    In this respect, the administration’s contradictions and obfuscations about the status, cost, rationale and resolution of the war reveal something different than officials intend. It’s not just that they appear to be in denial about what the conflict means. It has enabled the rest of the world to clearly see what the White House cannot acknowledge: The United States is no longer the world’s unquestioned hegemon, and the promise of its protection is not absolute. The war in Iran marks the end of any lingering illusions of American omnipotence.

    Our Allies Are Wondering Whether Supporting the American War Machine Is Worth It (NY Times)

    Reply ↓
    1. leaf June 19, 2026 at 1:46 pm

       Perception? They straight up withdrew the majority of people stationed at these bases before they started the war and had some of the remnants put on civilian clothes and hide in hotels until they could be evacuated. Meanwhile the bases, along with the parts of the host country hosting the base and soldiers who filmed their locations from hotel rooms, were just bombed with totally ineffectual air defense. The fleet won’t come anywhere near the Persian Gulf. Now everyone knows these bases just paint a huge target on your back and you will be abandoned to fend for yourself when the US uses your territory to launch attacks and retaliation comes in

       Reply ↓
    2. Mikel June 19, 2026 at 5:29 pm

       There are controlling interests that are invested most in keeping governments of the world spending on surveillance, weapons, and “security” – wherever it comes from and goes.
       That’s an overall “operating system” more so than the USA being considered a hegemon…along with economics being oriented to the neoliberal model.

       Reply ↓
37. amfortas June 19, 2026 at 4:10 pm

    Ganz, with likely a common sentiment around here:
    https://www.unpopularfront.news/p/the-dumbest-war-in-american-history

    and Iran has had enough pussy-footing around, aparrently:
    https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-trump-lebanon-israel-war-mou

    Reply ↓
38. Mikel June 19, 2026 at 4:20 pm

    I keep remembering that an Israeli official expressed how Iran retaliating for attacks on Lebanon changed the equation for expectations more so than many other events.
    That’s when this current version of “let’s make a (faux) deal” began in earnest, with money being dangled in front of Iran. USA and associates had already had energy company executives and experts on speed dial about effects on the global economy.
    As a result, more attention needs to be given to Lebanon and surrounding areas. Is something bigger brewing?

    Reply ↓
39. Tom Stone June 19, 2026 at 5:02 pm

    Israel has seriously tarnished its Brand over the last few years and I think a name change is in order (Is “Karen” already taken?), along with an appropriate advertising jingle.
    Something cheerful and upbeat, I’m sure the Commentariat of NC could come up with something…

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit June 19, 2026 at 6:03 pm

       Repurpose an oldie but goody: “Victory Djinn.”

       Reply ↓
40. Ann June 19, 2026 at 5:11 pm

    1340 PDT

    President Lee: “Trump Asked If Korea Could Quickly Build 10 U.S. Naval Ships”

    https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026061916014638865

    Norway plans to ban trade with Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/norway-plans-ban-trade-with-israeli-settlements-palestinian-territories-2026-06-19/

    Trump has one chance to save face: Resign now

    https://www.salon.com/2026/06/19/trump-has-one-chance-to-save-face-resign-now/

    Fuming Trump, 80, Melts Down as His Surrender Unravels

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/fuming-trump-80-melts-down-as-his-iran-surrender-unravels/

    Reply ↓
41. upstater June 19, 2026 at 5:12 pm

    If US does not stop Israel, this will end the de-escalation framework Conflict Forum, Crooke and Nima

    Crooke has many interesting things to say… the big one is 56 central banks have clearing of trade through the Chinese system. Transactions are invisible to the dollar based system.

    Reply ↓
42. Adam Eran June 19, 2026 at 6:17 pm

    A reminder that this isn’t the only instance of US belligerence:

    https://www.laprogressive.com/foreign-policy/bipartisan-war-on-venezuela

    Reply ↓
43. Mikel June 19, 2026 at 8:03 pm

    https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/p/planning-not-masterplans/
    The opening:
    “As a geographer and sociologist, I have spent years studying regional planning and policy development and implementation, from evaluating local refugee policies to observing the strategizing phases of intercultural laws in Mexico City. What you learn very quickly in this field is that the concept of a flawless, omnipotent “Masterplan” is a complete myth.

    Take the territorial zoning of a single street. You cannot simply draw a line on a map and declare it transformed. A street is already a living organism with its own material reality and history. Before a single policy changes, planners have to study the pedestrian frequency. They have to count every building, assess how it is currently used, identify the most frequented spaces, talk with pedestrians and residents, and engage in endless, repetitive talks with local “stakeholders.” Then come the whitepapers, the budgeting constraints, the implementation plans, and the consecutive evaluations. And just when the plan is set, a new administration comes in, or the material conditions change, and the entire process must iterate and adapt. And let’s not forget, in reality there are also planning cultures, and historical periods and visions of planning that influence this process, too.

    If it takes this much bureaucratic friction, iteration, and socialization to change the trajectory of one single street, why do so many geopolitical analysts assume the most heavily resourced empire in human history operates through the incoherent decisions of a group of politicians? Or likewise assume that it operates via a flawless, omniscient Masterplan hatched in a single smoke-filled room?

    When we look at global geopolitics today—specifically the U.S.-led imperial core’s actions against countries like China, Russia, or Iran—much of the alternative media space suffers from a cartoonish misunderstanding of how complex institutions and organizations work. If a U.S. military operation fails to achieve its maximalist goal, commentators immediately declare the empire “defeated” or incompetent.

    But empires, like city governments, do not surrender when a policy fails. They evaluate, they consult their stakeholders, they conduct studies, and they adapt. To think that there is a grand masterplan or likewise to insist that there is no plan at all, are assumptions with political consequences. I want to explain why, from the perspective of someone who has spent years studying planning…”

    And…a stellar comments section with replies from the author.

    Reply ↓
    1. mega mike June 19, 2026 at 8:30 pm

       from the comments: All very true, but there is a difference between making a plan, and having the competence at all required levels to successfully carry it out. The US military and even more so many complete European governments appear to have lost this ability. The US educational system has been extensively downgraded and technically trained workers are at a premium, while industrial capability in the US has been vastly reduced. A plan is all very well, but if you don’t have the capability it’s difficult to implement any plan.

       Reply ↓
       1. Mikel June 19, 2026 at 10:24 pm

          Was waiting for exactly that kind of reply.
          She addresses such sentiments. Read the entire post.

          And….

          Bonilla’s reply to a similar sentiment:

          “…First, we need to decouple planning from utopian outcomes. Planning is simply an activity that societies, organizations, and institutions engage in to manage complexity, resources, and tasks, and to project into the future. From the Babylonians and the very first emergence of cities, every society across the globe has engaged in it. Every era and region develops its own specific ‘planning culture’ that evolves over time. Planning is a universal organizational activity. So when I say “the empire plans,” I am not saying “the West is uniquely good at planning.” I am saying: look at the planning culture it has, and recognize it for what it is. That’s simply a descriptive claim.

          Second, and this is the crucial point: why things are going down is actually explained by my Bunker State framework, which is the larger argument this essay slots into. During the Cold War, Western planning culture had a specific goal—improving social welfare, raising living standards, building infrastructure for the common good. This wasn’t out of benevolence. It was forced by systemic competition with the socialist bloc, which had exactly that planning goal and was visibly achieving it. The West had to offer something, or it would lose legitimacy.

          What I argue in the Bunker State thesis is that we are living through a shift in planning culture. With the socialist alternative gone, the goal of planning in the US-led imperial core is no longer the improvement of society. It is the maintenance of imperial hierarchy. In practice, this means everything is subordinated to hybrid warfare. Infrastructure is repurposed for dual use. Citizens become objects of security rather than bearers of rights. Their wellbeing is no longer the metric of success. A great deal of suffering is imposed—not as an intended outcome, but as an acceptable externality of keeping the militarized machine growing and containing the Global Majority.

          So when you see things crumbling—crumbling public services, unaffordable housing, energy poverty, political polarization—you are seeing the content of the current plan. The goal is the survival of the imperial apparatus. And from that standpoint, a deindustrialized, immiserated, polarized population that is too exhausted to organize is a managed and welcome condition.

          That is the grim part. The hopeful part—if there is one—is that planning cultures can shift again. They shifted once, under Cold War pressure. They can shift again, under different pressure. But only if we understand the machinery well enough to contest it.”

          Reply ↓
          1. Retired Carpenter June 19, 2026 at 11:17 pm

             re: “And from that standpoint, a deindustrialized, immiserated, polarized population that is too exhausted to organize is a managed and welcome condition”
             Excellent recipe for a societal explosion. Has happened before, and will happen again. The end of those who think they can control such forces have not been pretty, and I do not recall any exceptions, even in the medium term. Do you?
             Here is a nice song from early 1980s, “I Am The Common Man“…

             Reply ↓
       2. Mikel June 19, 2026 at 10:44 pm

          “Read the entire post.” Meaning this is part of a series of posts. “Bunker State” ..etc
          At your leisure…

          Reply ↓
44. ChrisPacific June 19, 2026 at 8:12 pm

    I was able to reach Tasnim and see a longer form version of the article. It’s an opinion piece, i.e., advocacy. The thrust was that Hormuz remaining open while Israel continued to occupy part of Lebanon was an unacceptable situation, and Iran should not countenance it.

    That does not preclude the possibility that the Strait is actually closed or closing, but doesn’t constitute evidence itself.

    Reply ↓
45. flora June 19, 2026 at 8:47 pm

    Judge Napolitano and Prof. Mearsheimer.

    Prof. John Mearsheimer : Israel Undermining US/Iran Deal

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNME3CUvYpk

    Reply ↓
46. les online June 19, 2026 at 10:37 pm

    Did Trump really believe Jewish owned US media would let him get away with it ?
    …….
    Keep an eye on JD Vance – positioning himself…

    Reply ↓
47. les online June 19, 2026 at 10:39 pm

    I like the way Iran refers to ‘any violations and breaches on THE AMERICAN SIDE.’

    Reply ↓
48. les online June 19, 2026 at 10:49 pm

    Meanwhile, while Trump’s political survival may depend on dampening the fires
    in the Middle East (aka – West Asia), Zelensky is hankering to start another fire,
    in Belarus:
    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelensky-gives-belarus-7-day-ultimatum

    Reply ↓
49. Ann June 19, 2026 at 11:14 pm

    2015 PDT

    Turns Out, There Really Is a Cabal of Elite Crazies Trying to Control the World

    https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a71619211/peter-thiel-dialog-club-wired-report/

    U.S. intelligence warns Israel is likely to undermine Iran peace deal, officials say

    https://wapo.st/4oE6GE0

    Trump Surrenders to Iran on Virtually Every Point

    https://www.techdirt.com/2026/06/18/trump-surrenders-to-iran-on-virtually-every-point/

    Trump says Iran is ‘FINISHED’ after cancelled negotiations — as Israeli attacks threaten deal

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/06/19/trump-says-iran-is-finished-after-cancelled-negotiations—as-israeli-attacks-threaten-deal/

    Carney government passes law allowing authorization of banned pesticides

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bill-c-30-changes-pesticide-use-pest-control-products-act-9.7240832

    Reply ↓