[Today’s Iran war post will again be final a bit after its initial launch time. Please return for the completed post at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your browser then]
Due to the US/UK long holiday weekend, there is comparatively little new news about the Iran deal, save Trump moving the schedule goalposts and depicting signing a deal later as fine and Iranian sites, including official ones, objecting to claims made about the content of the supposed memorandum of understanding (MOU), that Iran has or every would agree to ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz or removal of its enriched uranium stockpile. Again, we have said no deal would happen and these differences are on fundamental issues. There is no middle ground.
In addition, we’ll explain briefly why Iran should be (and may actually be) skeptical of the intended sweeteners, like the release of its frozen assets and sanctions relief. There are good reasons aside from general mistrust why Iran is demanding that some of the frozen assets be freed as a condition of signing any MOU.
A new Trump tweet is an apparent reaction to loyal Republican screeching over the leaked terms (which are still too US favorable to be acceptable to Iran. More on that later in this post.
It is reminiscent of a famed prospectus during the South Sea bubble, which pitched “an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.” But that offering document was a parody while one assumes Trump to be serious.
But sadly the financial media is promoting Administration hopium, For instance, see the current Bloomberg lead headline:
The Financial Times at least showcases in its lead headline that Secretary of State Rubio is acknowledging that the talks might fail and saber-rattling, The article mentions but minimizes the Administration’s three card monte over a “deal” having been imminent:
Speaking in New Delhi on Monday, Rubio said that the US is “going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed before we explore the alternatives”. “We’re either going to have a good agreement or we’re going to have to deal with it another way,” he added.
Hopes of a deal rose over the weekend as US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the “final aspects and details” of an agreement that would open the Strait of Hormuz were “currently being discussed” and would “be announced shortly”.
However he later said he had told US negotiators “not to rush into a deal” with Iran that would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, saying “both sides must take their time and get it right”.
Mind you, the remarks from Rubio above confirm that there will be no agreement. Iran will not “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz in the way the US means, as in give up control of traffic and not charge fees. Iran is prepared only to take measures to get transit levels up to where they were before the war. Iran has also said it is talking to Oman about a “permanent” toll system, but as far as I can tell, no Omani official has confirmed the discussions. Recall that Oman is a signatory to the UN freedom of the seas treaty UNCLOS which would prohibit them running a tolling operation jointly with Iran.
Oman may also be thinking twice about incurring the ire of Gulf State neighbors:
Gulf States Tell Ships Not to Use Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Route
Five Middle Eastern countries have formally rejected Iran’s establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a letter to a global shipping watchdog, Bahrain,…
— Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) May 23, 2026
Experts are saying that the ceasefire is a gimmick, to buy Trump time. For instance:
But one might wonder why Trump wants yet another delay, since as many have repeatedly said, including your humble blogger, time is not on Trump’s side. In a much-watch interview with Mario Nafwal, Iran expert and former Congressional staffer Brandon Weichert confirms a line of though we had, that the negotiations were simply a gimmick to appease financial markets during the Hajj (which ends May 30) and facilitate a new round of strikes shortly afterward.
From a lightly-edited machine transcript:
Weichert: I think it’s very important to understand what’s going on right now in the Middle East as I’m sure you know is is Hajj, the great uh pilgrimage to Mecca, is occurring right now for the next I think week or so. And then there’s the is it the Muslim holiday of Eid I think is also going on.
In my opinion, what you’ve seen with this so-called deal has been a joint action by the Saudi government and their partners in Pakistan to basically get the Americans to kind of pull back for this holiday season so that people can flow in to the holy sites of Mecca and and you know have their their time, their religious time uninterrupted, by the war. Um, and I think that the President Trump is because he he is close to the the Saudi government and he’s he’s got to worry about how far he can push the Arab states. I think he acquiesced to the the pressure from them to at least have the appearance of a deal.
And I don’t think the deal’s real. I’ve said since they announced it what, 24 hours ago.
You look at what happened. The American side has not really gotten anything out from this the Iranians that the Iranians weren’t already willing to part with. The Iranians have not confirmed really any of the the contents of the deal that the president Trump has released to the public.
And then this morning I woke up to a report that Trump was telling his adviserss to slow walk the finalization of the agreement anyway because he has all the time. He said, “Well, he doesn’t have all the time.” And you, as you and I have spoke about for the last couple weeks, the economy in the West is getting ready to implode.
There are other reasons to doubt the idea of a 30 to 60 day ceasefire/negotiation period. Why would Iran agree to stop its toll operation before a deal was complete? The status of the fees and Iran controls still being uncertain during this time increases rather than reduces uncertainty for shippers. If Iran regularizes operations, even if the US sulks and occasionally messes with Iran ships that were actually sanctioned that would seem to be less of a risk than moving ships into the Gulf to pick up new cargoes and then being stuck again if the talks failed and a hot war was back on.
Iran official sources and other commentators have made clear Iran is not on board with the terms Team Trump has leaked:
BREAKING: Iran warns the US-Iran agreement "will be completely cancelled" due to ongoing US obstruction on clauses including the release of Iran's $100 billion of frozen assets, with the US now trying to link them to nuclear concessions which Iran rejects, per Tasnim.
The White…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 24, 2026
Worse it appears the US has been engaging in bad faith dealing in walking back some concessions:
Less than 24 hours after optimism emerged around a possible Iran-US memorandum, negative vibes are already surfacing.
A well-informed Iranian source tells me there are signs of U.S. retreat on two central issues: the mechanism for unfreezing Iranian assets, and the scope of a… https://t.co/Jciwt2wrBd— Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@Alihashem) May 24, 2026
The full text of that tweet:
Less than 24 hours after optimism emerged around a possible Iran-US memorandum, negative vibes are already surfacing.
A well-informed Iranian source tells me there are signs of U.S. retreat on two central issues: the mechanism for unfreezing Iranian assets, and the scope of a ceasefire in Lebanon.According to the source, the memorandum includes a Lebanon ceasefire framework, but Israel is reportedly uncomfortable with the arrangement and is pushing Washington to include language allowing it to carry out military operations in Lebanon under the justification of responding to “any threat.” Iran is rejecting that formulation and insisting on a sustainable and lasting ceasefire.
Tehran has informed all mediators, including Pakistan, that it will not sign the memorandum unless all clauses are fully agreed and guaranteed. Pakistan reportedly suggested moving forward with agreed sections while postponing contentious points, but Iran rejected that approach, insisting the disputed clauses are fundamental and non-negotiable.The overall picture suggests Tehran increasingly views Washington as backing away from earlier understandings reached through mediators.
I expressed doubts in comments yesterday as to whether the US could readily release all the Iran frozen assets:
Most of the frozen funds cannot be released without Congress unwinding earlier legislation:
Congressional action has been critical to the development and expansion of U.S. sanctions on Iran. Congress authorized sanctions targeting Iran’s proliferation activities beginning in 1992 and, in 1996, enacted landmark legislation mandating the first Iran-related secondary sanctions, on foreign firms involved in the development of Iran’s oil resources (Iran has the world’s third largest proven oil reserves). After the Iranian government’s violent crackdown on mass protests over its disputed 2009 presidential election, Congress authorized sanctions on officials responsible for the crackdown and other human rights abuses. As international concern about Iran’s nuclear program increased, Congress, beginning in 2010, increased the scope of U.S. sanctions, targeting Iran’s oil exports and other economic sectors in a bid to deny the Iranian government financial resources and compel it to make policy changes. In enacting these authorities, Congress mandated that to waive or lift sanctions, the President must certify that Iran is meeting certain conditions, including that the Iranian government has ceased its support of international terrorism and its proliferation activities.
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12452
I would hazard that the $25 billion Iran has asked for out of an estimated $100+ billion is the only part that can be freed without Trump making the stipulated certifications, which he can’t do if Iran is still besties with Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, the Iraqi militias, and Hamas (which Iran is not giving up) and still has any nuclear enrichment (which Iran is also not giving up).
Now there is admittedly the question of who would have legal standing to stop an arguably impermissible release, as in who could go to court. But a filing might have enough color for it to be litigated, as to simply be dismissed over the question of standing. Iran is not going to have any stomach to have its funds tied up even via seemingly loser lawsuits.
In addition, another carrot the US has held out to Iran also looks dodgy, as in sanctions relief. The mechanism would be a sanctions wavier as opposed to cancelling the underlying sanctions. That is even flimsier legally than the JCPOA, which Trump tore up.
Larry Johnson describes long-form the fast backlash against Trump’s deal scheming, which likely played a big role in the effort to roll back key terms. Some tidbits from his 250,000,000 Reasons Why Trump is Backing Away From a Deal with Iran:
The most significant pushback came from Trump’s own right flank, where critics argued the war’s objectives were being abandoned:
If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime — still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America’ — now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.
Mike Pompeo, Trump’s own former Secretary of State, was devastating:
Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world. Not remotely America First. It’s straightforward: Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability that they can never threaten us again….
In one of the more striking social media moments, even Fox News’ own audience pushed back. When Fox News reshared Trump’s Truth Social post about the deal, its own followers responded with deep skepticism. One commenter wrote: “‘Nobody has seen it, nobody knows what it is, it isn’t fully negotiated yet,’ but trust him, it’s better than Obama’s deal. Incredible pitch!” Another wrote: “He needs to listen to the critics before he signs something stupid.” A third wrote: “Critics are not asking what the deal is, but why there is a deal in the first place.”
Johnson also makes an important point in a talk with Nawfal that a terrorist attack by members of a radical Baluchi independence movement looks to have been instigated by Israel to try to get Pakistan to back off from mid-wifing a negotiated settlement (see starting at 6:00):
But to return to Weichert’s thesis, why would it make sense for Trump to buy time to make another attack on Iran when that at best digs his hole deeper, by further depleting already-low weapons stocks, and risks Iran destroying the global economy by destroying Gulf energy production and desalination plants? Back to the transcript:
Weichert: I think that the whole conflict was about Trump believed he could do this. He could do regime change for cheap in 96 hours or less, and that the people of Iran would rise up after he killed Khamenei and that they would basically create this democracy or whatever. It didn’t work out. So now he’s stuck holding the bag and Netanyahu won’t let him let go. So he’s in this this very awkward position where he clearly is trying to figure out a way out, but he can’t. So his only solution is to escalate. And I still think we’re on track to escalate on some level or the Israelis are trying to get us back in…
They [US weapons] are depleting. And I would say if we do one more round of fighting, we will have nothing left. But that that won’t that that hasn’t stopped the president so far from doing these insane things. The Joint Chiefs told him on February 27th, the day before the war, if you do this, you’re going to deplete all of the those 14 top systems that we need for other conflicts potentially against China. You’re going to deplete and we can’t restore them anytime soon.
Trump didn’t listen. So, I agree with you on the stockpile crisis, but that hasn’t stopped the president so far.
Nawfal [interjecting]; To zero just is wild, man. Like, I understand depending 50% is stupid. He made a stupid decision, but there’s a difference between stupid….
Weichert: I know. II get it…
Nawfal: And suicidal…
Weichert: I was talking to Michael Jan and he said to me that when you’re in war, logic and rationality, it’s a different type of logic and rationality. You can’t apply what you would do in normal peacetime conditions. Once you’re in it, it’s a totally different rationality. It’s it’s it’s mania. It’s madness. It’s ego. It’s ignorance. I mean, Trump has never been in war. Trump has never been in a foreign policy position other than the president. Now, he doesn’t I don’t think he fundamentally understands he’s out of his element.
Recent news snippets show that Iran is balking:
BREAKING: Iran’s Foreign Ministry speaks as the US says there has been progress on a deal, but details are still under negotiation. Esmaeil Baghaei says there is no assurance that US President Donald Trump will honour his commitments.
🔴 Follow https://t.co/hGzrK2N8WC for more pic.twitter.com/SMBJ8rupEl
— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 25, 2026
BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Ministry now officially confirms that no Iranian nuclear commitments and uranium handover exist or will exist in any draft agreement with the US, calling all reports that claim otherwise a "pure lie," making further talks pointless due to the US…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 25, 2026
If Iran wants to turn up the heat further (in case Mr. Market and/or the financial press have still not taken not that Iran is not just not on board with the latest Trump tap-dance), perhaps the Foreign Ministry could announce the negotiations are off unless and until the US recognizes realities on the ground and stops walking back from commitments made during talks. And most importantly, do so 15 minutes before the US markets open on Tuesday.
Done for today! See you tomorrow!
I hate to butt in, but I think Trump is just twerking the market on an immanent deal.
I admit to not knowing much about how open / futures market timing works, but wouldn’t it have made more sense to announce a deal closer to futures markets opening if you wanted to ride the euphoria wave and dump at a new high? Instead it looked to me like they announced the “imminent” deal not long after all the markets closed.
You’re right — the timing doesn’t make great sense for market manipulation — but as it seems patently obvious at this point that yet again there was no actual agreement reached, tentative or otherwise, one has to wonder what the goal of announcing it would be.
I think they announced the “news” early so that there would be no spike in prices before it became public. They get the same increase in futures prices (made easier because of low volume) but unfortunately the in crowd doesn’t get to front run the move.
Agreed, also Yves point about Saudi perhaps asking for a delay due to major holidays, fits what we are seeing:
“But one might wonder why Trump wants yet another delay, since as many have repeatedly said, including your humble blogger, time is not on Trump’s side. In a much-watch interview with Mario Nafwal, Iran expert and former Congressional staffer Brandon Weichert confirms a line of though we had, that the negotiations were simply a gimmick to appease financial markets during the Hajj (which ends May 30) and facilitate a new round of strikes shortly afterward.”
Spot on! I’ve been wondering also why announce on Saturday, giving Iran three days to pour cold water (which they’ve done). Speculation here, but one reason could be that he’s been told his leaking news to his market playing buddies has gotten too obvious. Another might be that somebody finally got through to him and told him that if the closure goes on another few weeks the world, including the US, is going to be in a world of hurt.
If you look at Trump’s history, when his bullying is confronted he panics and then folds. He did this with his bankrupt casinos, and he did this when his creditors took over the rail yards north of 57th street for pennies (and profited by many many billions). As Michael Wolf says, he always hits the wall.
I’d love to see the market activity on Friday of all the Trump family and the seven concentric circles of Acolytes. Do The Trump Pump ‘n Dump…
Ploymarket bets as well…
The markets tend to forget older news and the news often get old pretty fast. It is important to feed the flow regularly. Declaring a deal makes it easier to comment on the progress, fake or real, moving the dial up and down depending on the situation. I imagine this new deal can be pumped for a week or two until a new distraction is needed.
Sir Mix-A-Lot approves of your comment.
It seems so strange for Trump to push for a thirty or even sixty day negotiating period. The only explanation that comes to mind that he is being told that Iran is about ready to collapse any day now so all he has to do is wait and all those riches as well as victory will come his way. You have a parallel with the Ukraine war where all the talk for years was that Russia was about to collapse any day now and that the Ukraine would be victorious while the US and the EU would be fabulously wealthy. But as Yves has pointed out, Trump does not have sixty days to wait and may not even have thirty days. The market cannot stay solvent as long as the pigheadedness and flailing of the Trump regime.
I think Trump has been quite successful in manipulating the markets thus far, considering what is in the pipeline. Another possibility as to why this delay, and why the faux “MoU” – the regime may be floating what is closer to a possible actual agreement (still with a lot missing of course) to judge how far along US elites and his own MAGA supporters are. Clearly there has been some push back to various of Iran’s demands on the record, including from Democrats.
Delay is currently Trumps best option. He can’t escalte militarily or Iran will shut the red sea and destroy the UAE’s energy infrastructure (among other options) which would lead to a depression – perhaps “the greatest” depression. Meanwhile delay gives Israel and his pro-Israeli backers more time to continue with their “you cease we fire” arrangement in what they think of as Israel’s borders – and agreed to by Ambassador Huckabee.
The downsides of delay are myriad and have been well outlined by Yves et al (thank you!). The time may come as economic contraction accelerates (with shortages that none can deny) that the rest of the u.s. ruling class is on the same page and ready to come terms with Iran.
Big danger is escalation trap. Hopefully no one will use nukes.
Done for today! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please re-load the page and re-skim.
Thank you for these posts!
The kahanists are getting restive:
‘Bang on Trump’s desk’: Far-right ministers demand Netanyahu return to war in Lebanon
…but another Likud minister announced today she is resigning from the Knesset and will not run again. The bill to dissolve the Knesset is still being read. Netanyahu simply does not have the power to force this much further.
Is Trump trying to stall until Netanyahu’s government has collapsed so he can capitulate and leave in the chaos? That could be sooner than 30 days if the bills to dissolve the Knesset proceed. To hold his coalition he would have to somehow pass the haredi draft exemption law to bring the haredi parties back into the coalition, they have already called Netanyahu a “con man” and they were the ones who brought the dissolution bill forward! If Netanyahu can be left holding the bag then Israel can also break the kahanists. I would not be surprised if the opposition is talking to Trump’s people about this on the side as a potential way out..
> Is Trump trying to stall until Netanyahu’s government has collapsed so he can capitulate and leave in the chaos?
Trump seems entangled with Netanyahu himself, but however likely, the field of outcomes is very wide. A hill is a mountain on a plain. How soon could an election actually happen, or is that not necessary for his ouster?
https://aje.news/08nf0x (Al Jazeera, 5 days ago)
When the Knesset is dissolved no legislation may be passed and military action goes into pure defense/non-operational response during electioneering. Then after the election whoever wins has to form a government coalition assuming no single party has majority alone (next to impossible in current state). The president (Herzog) has to approve the coalition.
Here’s the rub: it took five tries last time to form a government that held longer than six months last several elections. There is no guarantee that once the gov is dissolved another will actually form- they could require another election round! So if the dissolution proceeds it is very possible Israel is without a government for several months. If it is true that Israel is driving Trump then once the gov has collapsed trump is free to wash his hands and walk away.
Then Trump can channel his inner Pontius Pilate and stand before the Knesset and declare: “Ecce Hormuz!” Then he washes his hands of the whole affair and hands the “problem” back to the crowd in Tel Aviv.
This time however, the Theocrats are not dealing with a Prince of Peace.
Eretz Israel will become Ersatz Israel, and then maybe the UN can declare Jerusalem an International City under UN control.
One can dream.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/bennett-israel/
Funny I do not recall stating that Bennett would be better (or anything approaching “liberal”) but if you are unable to see that Bennett government without Likud or the Kahanists would open up options not currently present I am not sure what to tell you.
But would those options be anything more than cosmetic? I did not read Carolinian’s comment and quote as a critique of your own, but rather a statement of skepticism that anything would fundamentally change with a change in government.
There is a useful post by Conor in today’s Links that makes a similar point:
“… Netanyahu did not invent settlement expansion. He inherited and accelerated it. Bennett did not oppose the settlement enterprise; during his previous premiership, construction approvals continued rising. Lapid, despite centrist branding, never articulated a framework for dismantling the occupation’s core infrastructure.
“Across Israeli political life, tactical disagreements exist over rhetoric, judicial reform, relations with Washington, and the pace of annexation. But on the fundamentals—military dominance over Palestinian territory, maintenance of settlement blocs, rejection of full Palestinian sovereignty, and indefinite security control west of the Jordan River—consensus runs far deeper than international observers long admitted.”
Just as there were “tactical disagreements” over rhetoric and pace between the Trump and Biden administrations, those among Israeli politicians refer to surface appearances which do not address fundamental structural issues. That is the pessimism many of us share toward changes in government – here or there.
https://www.savageminds.co/p/after-netanyahu-the-system-remains
My take on Bennett as pm is that he would represent a triumph of the secular wing over the theocratic wing in Israel. This is better for the world in this moment because it would remove the eschatological bs from the current moment. It would not resolve the Palestinian state question or the settlers – in fact Bennett is likely to annex at least part of the West Bank – but he is on record stating he is in favor of full citizenship for Palestinians (if they serve in the IDF) and against allowing the Kahanists and Haredim to dictate state affairs. Yes, this (Pals in the IDF) is batshit and unlikely. But it is not as bad as what is being done now by the Kahanists (kill them all and turn it into a media spectacle for Eretz Israel). This is a fact, and when the Kahanists are out, they go back to being a fringe faction. They only have the power they have now because Netanyahu needed them to hold the coalition. They were on terrorist sanctions lists until 2022!
Consider the current structural issues in the US government: regardless of which party wins in 2028 nobody expects the situation for the 90% to change. But everyone assumes – I think? – that getting away from Trump’s cult of personality would at least somewhat ameliorate the international situation. It is the same with Israel.
I’m just passing along the views of Responsible Statecraft. Obviously you know a lot more about Israel than I who have never been there, but reading across the web there seem to be many who think a slightly lesser evil at the head of their government wouldn’t solve the overall problem of a state that won’t face demographic realities.
as a middle-realm wasp, with little exposure to the peculiarities of the knesset…your considered observations into that wee nation’s irascibleness appreciated
Thanks again for the ongoing effort. The current situation reminds some of us of the movie Groundhog Day where the lead character wakes up every morning to the same events that happened the day before. In the end he breaks the spell but will the US of A under Trump?
Surely it’s time to change the channel and let some other country’s narrative dominate the world’s attention. Time to learn Mandarin?
In the movie Groundhog Day, the Bill Murray character breaks the spell by changing his orientation towards life – away from “getting the girl” – played by Andie MacDowell – to one of community participation – what Erik Erikson called “generativity”. It is the transition that the “Instrument of Peace” prayer named after St. Francis seeks. In Buddhist terms, the weatherman finally realizes that one’s excessive suffering comes from attachment, and that the eight-fold path is a way out.
And speaking of changing one’s deeper attitudes, I can no longer enjoy the PBS Memorial Day show – a bit because my musical tastes are old-fashioned, but primarily because the propaganda sticks in my craw. Here’s something I wrote several years ago:
Looking back, I now recognize that even when I wrote this, I still had not renounced an earlier underlying belief in modern techno-industrial civilization. I had not yet grasped the dilemma that we talking apes had put ourselves into with the carbon pulse and ecological overshoot. And I note that, in general, a lot of intelligent and informed and well-meaning people really don’t see how very serious the situation is. Stuff will happen, atmospheres and oceans and plants [primary producers] will obey the laws of nature, and people and other entities with agency will follow the Harvard Law of Behavior [under carefully controlled experimental conditions, animals will do what they damn well please]. And as Lawrence Berra could have said, “You never know when something surprising might happen.”
FWIW we may have to consider Trump has deteriorated to the point that he’s doing Memento. With little short term memory, he may be spending most mornings just trying to catch up.
It isn’t even necessary to conjure up unlikely scenarios. I’m sure most of us have known multiple people hitting their early 80s, and know what all these signs are. Even in a more decent person it’s no shame to say they’re hardly firing on all cylinders anymore at that age, and that’s just keeping up appointments and groceries, let alone pretending to single-handedly manage complex international crises.
Trump and I are the same age, and I, like many others my age, are fortunate to have cylinders that are in excellent shape. What is wrong with you, boy?
My experience with Alzheimer’s in a relative is that they do not catch up – they cannot recall that they need to catch up. And they mostly live in the past. Of course, my relative was not suffering from megalomania (22 ft golden statue?).
Years ago my mother-on-law had dementia in her 90’s. Some mornings she would wake up not knowing her husband had died the year before. Led to quite a bit of confusion.
If he’s catching himself up by reading his old Truth Social posts it would explain the repetitive nature.
Same, especially the part about not realizing they need to catch up. Yesterday might as well have never happened, but 30 years ago, they’ll tell you all about it.
Like Reagan. Helen Thomas has said she recognized his Alzheimer’s as early as 1982.
Unfocused, confused, tired-looking, rambling until asked about his films. Then he became highly focused, jovial, able to recall specific encounters and even lines.
aye. when it falls on me to take mom to the doctor…60 miles one way, usually with a stop at HEB(so i at least get groceries for my trouble)…i have found a strategy to avoid her lapsing into one of her rage events(covert narcissism is a bitch): i keep steering the conversation into family history. she’ll go on and on. im interested in this topic, being the keeper of the history and of the objects…but already know all the stories. But keeping her on that topic makes her happy, and…importantly…unlikely to stray into some other topic, like pasture management,where i must chew my tongue bloody(because she really knows zero about it save a buncha magical thinking and just plain crazy ideas…whereas i have studied it intensively for 30 years)
pasture management….truly an advocation of the focused.
Yet productivity requires late-spring cyclic stupor …eradicating the rank fruits of adjoining properties …which inescapably have trespassed thru the 4 strands.
He does not have Alzherimers. He has white matter disease. Affects personality, not recall until very advanced stages, and he does not seem to be there yet.
Trump never read and had no interest in accuracy even when his brain was working better.
My take… (cynical as it is) is that you won’t see a deal until well after the November elections.
So prepare for at least 12 months of rising costs.
Build as much of an inventory as you can and shop inside your house/apartment because the price points are going to be bad enough that deferring purchases will not help you.
This is my prediction too. Some transit through Hormuz, but a slow build in pressure on the consumer.
Trump doesn’t care. He hasn’t shopped for groceries or filled a gas tank for most of his life.
THERE WILL BE NO DEAL.
There is no deal the Iranians will accept that the US can stomach.
And the Trump Team is both negotiation and agreement incapaable.
Plus the global economy would be stone cold dead by November. The collapse will start in July and become pervasive by Sept at the latest with the Strait largely closed.
Kpler forecasts best case scenario as 40% former traffic by year end. So we are VERY fucked regardless.
And you assume elections. I anticipate a great deal of domestic unrest which will allow Trump to declare martial law, either nationally or in key states.
Even if there was a deal that on paper was acceptable to both parties *on paper*, no US promise that amounts to anything other than immediate payment on delivery has any credibility, so a deal is impossible. Even with allies, let alone adversaries, this administration rips up every agreement it makes before the proverbial ink is dry. Iran presumably reads the papers.
What is being depicted now as a possible deal is merely a framework to start talks. One former diplomat compared it to getting to base camp. And Team Trump seems unable to arrive there.
I agree and agree with your outline above re NO DEAL. I’d add that, at present, it would be unlikely for either party to generate sufficient votes in Congress to approve any treaty. I suspect by this point (post JCOPA among other broken promises and abuse) Iran realizes a ratified treaty with the u.s and perhaps UN as well, is the only way any agreement with the u.s. might hold.
And even then, it is doubtful that the US/Israel will abide by any written agreement. Their track record is pretty clear there. Congress is almost totally bought and paid for, political bribery is legal and normalized practice. The “donors” and campaign “contributors” are their real “constituents”. And of course, the Mad Emperor is not only cognitively-challenged, he is deeply compromised by the Epstein Class. We can only guess on the dirt they have on him, but it must be pretty ugly. So when we have a captured exec, an institutionally corrupt and highly politicized SCOTUS, and bribed Congress, what do we expect? Corruption in, corruption out. These “elected officials” clearly don’t give a fk about the US people.
But of course, most US denizens are misinformed by the Epstein Class media: corruption, grift, genocide, institutional corruption in the so-called markets, etc. are all normalized by the MassMediaMonopoly so no problems, it’s just “business as usual” until the sht hits the fan
I think about this now and then. Hundreds of thousands of people have died in the current war. What is the bad thing in the Epstein documents that makes all these deaths “worthwhile”? Easy to imagine reputation-destroying or career-ending stuff. But would anyone commit mass murder just to save their reputation or career?
Anything in the Epstein files must be a decade or more old at this point, so it’s hard to imagine it will have too much of a grip on the present day population. In any case, Trump has reached the point where almost anything he might have done is well within peoples’ existing expectations.
There seems to be a deep level of sickness here, one way or another.
“Would anyone commit mass murder just to save their reputation or career”
All the time dude.
Human Nature.
Four Presidents in a row about Vietnam.
It’s pervasive corruption, go along to get along.
If only people weren’t so damned Human…
In truth, I am just guessing, but with the increased gerrymandering and attacks on mail-in-ballots, at least, I feel like there is not a low chance of elections. Trump’s favourite ‘it was rigged’ is always a galllback if it really goes poorly.
Is it possible to federally declare martial law in only specific states?
Absent an actual riot (like LA 1992 or Bonus Army 1932) which would be very location oriented, could that be accomplished by trump alone? If so, how much resistance would the repubs muster, seeing as how once crossed, that line becomes easier for any president to do.
Granted, he would have several governors in his pocket that would happily oblige but they are mostly red anyway.
I don’t know about Martial Law, but Hoover “called out” the Army to crush the Bonus March without Congressional approval. Mind you, it was not opposed by Congress. The Senate had just refused to approve the early bonus payout demanded by the demonstrators.
The riots used as a pretext for the military intervention were the result of the District of Colombia police being ordered in to clear out the Bonus Army encampment. The veterans fought back, two were killed. When the troops were sent in to do the job “properly,” 800 DC police were also involved.
America already has highly militarized domestic police forces. Add in the Federal ICE thugs, and the Organs of State Security become quite formidable.
Stay safe and do try to avoid “Imperial Entanglements.”
While I agree that there is not and never will be a “deal” between a Trump-controlled U.S. and any reasonably foreseeable leadership group in Iran, the global economic collapse is certain to be unevenly distributed. I seriously doubt that there will be domestic unrest in the U.S. during the balance of 2026. We would be seeing signs of it by now and we’re just not.
Rather than declare martial law and suspend elections, the MAGA cabal will likely be able to take advantage of the vastness of America to place a thumb on the scale at a micro level to prevent either house of congress from flipping. Not necessarily via fraud, but simply by increasing the normally dismal mid-term voter turnout in key districts.
This is how they defeated Harris in ‘24 and Massie in KY-4 in ‘26. There is zero enthusiasm for the Democrats as agents of change, nor should there be. The Clintonite strategy of suppressing progressive voters has backfired spectacularly. At the same time, reports of Trump’s “base” turning on him are hopium-smoke. Voter turnout decides elections.
I would agree that Trump’s base is mostly intact, and in fact, many are increasingly embracing him– rallying around the Trump– as they consider any bad news a personal attack on them and their guy. You can call that “tribalism” or “cultism” or whatever, but that’s what I’m seeing first-hand.
With regards to domestic unrest, yes, we see restlessness at the moment but wait for the pain to register– really register and hit home. And that will be starting very soon. I would imagine that the mood is going to shift hard by Fourth of July, and by Labor Day, people will become increasingly frightened and desperate, and lashing-out at whatever or whomever they believe to be the cause of their suffering– and for some, some many, that will not be Team Trump.
I don’t believe we’ll see a civil war along the lines of North vs. South, but based upon belief, ideology, and identity. And I have no doubt that we’ll see how well the decades-long investment in the Security State pans out in the months leading to November and into the holidays. And most sadly, this Security State will be supported by many.
I think the US actually is likely to experience a civil war, or peaceful secession. The US, like USSR, is an ideocracy (not an idiocracy!), in which “Americanness” is defined by adhering to a specific ideology. When people cease to believe in the ideology — and they are ceasing to believe — the sense of American identity will decline and there will be little binding people in Alabama with people in Connecticut. As belief in the legitimacy of the federal govenment declines — and it is declining — local governments will take over its functions (which you are already seeing in the case of sanctuary cities and so on). It might take a couple of decades to get there, but to my mind the US is definitely on the road to fragmentation.
Maybe Mexico will take the southwest?
Fellow Chris, there is already little binding the people in Alabama to their equals in New York. More importantly, there is no political party interested in national unity anymore. Civil unrest and economic unrest will hit us. I don’t know that we have the ability to divide the country into sides or even regions cleanly. I do expect violence to rise up again but who knows what will be the catalyst?
Just to be clear, I’m only prognosticating about the 2026 midterm election and the likelihood of mass civil unrest in the U.S. that would facilitate Trump declaring federal marshal law and suspending that election.
The future is another matter entirely. I don’t think that it’s a coincidence that the Covid lockdowns and mass deaths, the George Floyd BLM uprising, and the January 6th insurrection all had their genesis in the span of a single year.
> And most sadly, this Security State will be supported by many.
There’s a scene in Costa-Gavras’ masterwork Missing (1982) that epitomises exactly this. Imperfectly remembered but something along the lines of … an upstairs restaurant or salon full of people in tuxedos and ball gowns … a platoon of Pinochet’s jackboots marches through the street below, patrolling the city … and the ‘better people’ come out onto the balcony to applaud them as they pass.
Class enemies are (usually) easily identifiable. What gets me is the ‘I can hire half of the working class to kill the other half’ reality that provides the rulers with their goons. I mean, what is wrong with these millions and millions of people who wear the uniforms and carry the weapons of ‘this Security State’?!?
But so far, the largest impact is the increased cost of gasoline, in terms of visible effects that most Americans can grasp. We haven’t gotten to the part where there are acute shortages.
If grocery shelves start looking routinely ransacked like in the early days of the Pandemic, things might start to get a bit less calm, people a bit less apathetic. Hunger has a way of focusing the mind, and perhaps this is a destination we’ll be arriving at later this year.
Hope not. We’ll see. The modern economy is a complex system of interconnectedness that surfaces under duress. What breaks and how badly, we’re perhaps about to find out.
Americans couldn’t tolerate “soft” “lockdowns” where we closed bars and concerts and sporting events for a pretty brief period of time. They couldn’t tolerate masking in a public health emergency, because freedum and selfishness.
This could be way worse than our half hearted attempts at “bending the curve”, to say nothing of actually trying to contain SARS-CoV-2.
“Speaking in New Delhi on Monday, Rubio said that the US is “going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed before we explore the alternatives”.
US should have kept to diplomacy a year ago! What has changed? Why?
Nothing and NADA.
Trump and Rubio are only now giving diplomacy a chance to succeed as all their assassinations and bombings proved ineffective. Before their attack, the US had a great nuclear offer on the table from Iran. One even better than the JCPOA. But Trump went with his war as he figured that when he won it, that he would get the whole country on a silver platter. Yeah, didn’t quite work out that way.
“ So he’s in this this very awkward position where he clearly is trying to figure out a way out, but he can’t. So his only solution is to escalate.”
I kind of disagree. While it’s an apparent escalatory trap, Trump has been ridiculously proficient in gaming the markets into ignoring the conflict
He does have another option, which is to just let the global economy burn. He’s president for two more years, and doesn’t care about the average person in America, let alone the world.
Who is going to stop him from torching the economy? Nobody. Not democrats, who can’t do anything, nor GOP, who are only illusory strength because Trump is so outsized
Apologies in advance – angry at “imminent deal” lies being peddled yet again!
Other than stockpiling to the extent allowed by our physical surroundings, I don’t see much else we can do than to start talking about the Trump shortages, the Trump crash, the Trump depression, and the Trump famine – or should that be the Trump Hunger Games? Certainly don’t hold your breath for political action.
Thanks to Yves and team for the tireless coverage!
Yikes, don’t give him any ideas!
Apprentice was bad enough, now talk of UFC on the white house lawn and he would absolutely stub up at the thought of the poor fighting for crumbs of food.
And how about dance marathons?
I hate to scold, but stop fixating on the markets. The economy is about to hit a wall. The US runs out of all oil/gas supply buffers in early July and domestic energy prices will start a moon shot.
That’s fair although I do have to say that the market manipulation is really fascinating in itself.
But my point is that Trump does have another option that isn’t escalation. That’s to do nothing and dither. From his point of view that’s worked fine so far.
I think what’s good for Trump is good for America. From the perspective of Trump, at least.
Considering what has happened and what the Iranians are promising should aggression be resumed it would be a bad miss-match. So why on earth are the folks like Graham, Pompeo, Cruz and others telling Trump to persevere and go win this thing by doing what has already failed.
B/c Israel,
I can’t see resumption would be good for Israel. Iran will take hits as before, but if that includes power generation everything in israel will be on the table, and israel is a small country, relatively easy to take out power, ports, Ben gurian, desal etc. That means exodus.
And my guess is that with Iranian engineers and China/russia supplies they will get things fixed up before israel does.
Israel seems to be run by people that really believe god won’t let them fail. I can imagine Bennett would be better… and he might form a gov after Iran is de facto acknowledged to own Hormuz. And with us citizens thinking israel dragged us into a disastrous war.
A lot of the behavior of US and Israeli (and EU) leaders makes me think of an old cartoon strip Shoe, where one of the characters is in a bar complaining about something, and the bartender asks him, “So what’s your plan?” And the complainer says, “My short term plan is just make it till the weekend.” “What’s your long term plan?” “String together a bunch of short term plans.” Nobody in “the West” has a realistic long term plan, just vague dreams of everything turning out all right in spite of all contrary indications. So what they’re running on is a bunch of short term plans strung together, as each one fails to get them where they want. It can’t last, but until it doesn’t, everyone can keep pretending it will.
But to be so casual with human lives, portable property, taxpayer billions, irreparable damage to the environment while running a real risk of trashing out the economy for years to come is just astonishing. None of these people are fit for the offices they hold.
I believe they are managing the Overton window. So long as they scream “Iran will kill us all unless we win this thing,” they prevent calls for retreat from getting a fair hearing. Their ultimate objective being to keep the pot boiling while the Eurasian economy burns to the ground (they hope).
“Trump has been ridiculously proficient in gaming the markets into ignoring the conflict”
Markets have been happy playing the game though not because Trump’s proficiency. They have been wanting to believe that their immense power would magically put the desired end to the conflict. Where is the invisible hand hiding when you need it so much? They are absolutely complicit with this stupidity. Keep on dancing while the tsunami approaches the ship.
“It is very difficult to get a man to understand something if he thinks his paycheck depends on him not understanding it” -Upton Sinclair
I believe that Trump’s cognitive decline plays into this, as does the Trump administration’s inability to act in good faith.
And it seems to be a genuine lack of ability, not some sort of strategy.
A weak Man surrounded by ass kissers and fanatics who is totally out of his depth a man whose mental and physical states are in obvious decline.
It’s going to be a lively Summer.
It’s going to be a lively Summer.
You are the King of Understatement! Fall and Winter not looking so good, either.
If the analysts are right and I’m understanding them correctly, it sounds like a lot of the “lively” is already baked into the system and it’s just a matter of when the Powers That Be simply cannot hide the ball any more.
Or maybe they’re wrong and it’ll all blow over after a bit of a blip. Despite being Memorial Day, I see that national average gas prices have dropped another penny from yesterday, so that’s a Good Thing. Right? Right?
To the contrary– Donald Trump has always operated in bad faith. It’s his main strategy. See his long history of stiffing contractors.
Roy Cohn was his mentor and he hung around with mafiosos in Atlantic City. Trump fancies himself a gangster
It would explain a lot, especially with his shake-downs of whole countries.
And sometimes a bit of truth comes out when he says he does not have to follow the law, he fancies himself as god/Jesus, and he doesn’t care about Americans’ economic woes. He’s in this job to steal as much loot for himself, family and cronies as possible. The term “kleptocracy” seems increasingly fitting
This is so depressing. It’s like we’re in the 12th act of a Greek tragedy. In this case each act is just like the act before. We know the outcome. A small chorus is singing it. Meanwhile bigger groups are singing the siren songs of patriotism, defiance and denial. The only thing we don’t know is how many acts there will be or how devastating the outcome…
Only Bulimics have their cake and eat it too, unfortunately it won’t just be Trump who has to swallow the results of this idiocy.
Many thanks, Yves, for your daily updates on the Iran War. They are definitely my daily ‘go to’ reading!
In addition, my daily mailbox is filled with the works of other posters, many, if not most, being referrals from NC. This morning, there is a post from a recent addition, William Murphy (The Dialectics of Destruction,) on revolution:
” revolutions emerge from material contradictions becoming impossible to manage within existing structures.
When large segments of society lose faith in institutions, when inequality intensifies beyond tolerable limits, when corruption becomes normalized, when economic insecurity expands, and when state legitimacy deteriorates, revolutionary conditions develop organically.
Revolution does not emerge because populations suddenly become ideological. It emerges because existing systems fail to meet human needs.
…………
However, the violence of revolutionary periods must also be understood within context. Ruling classes rarely surrender power peacefully. Colonial empires did not voluntarily decolonize out of moral enlightenment. Slave systems did not dissolve through persuasion alone. Fascism was not defeated through polite debate.”
“Fascism was not defeated through polite debate.”
How about by spirited singing? Staughton Lynd believed in the power of singing, his go-to being “Solidarity Forever.” Here’s some ladies singing an old Woody song, “All You Fascists Bound to Lose.” This Youtube vid is presented as evidence to Saager Enjeti that not all Boomers listen to Fox News twelve hours a day.
Was fascism defeated?
No “The Germans lost WWII, but the Nazis won” (attributed to George Carlin)
Quite a large number of slave systems have been dissolved through persuasion alone.
I suspect something along the lines of The Shock Doctrine may be in store. The greatest depression will be quite a shock. The tech oligarchs have some plans, no doubt they will seize ther opportunity to attempt to implement.
When are people in the West going to wake up and realize Israel is the enemy?
The epstein class is the enemy, and they don’t do borders.
Borders, like taxes, are for the little people.
They’ve also been incredibly successful at breaking things and getting much richer so there is little reason to think that this time is different.
They’re just bad people, with lots of power, who are accustomed to impunity.
That would be too easy, convenient, and inaccurate: the US does not need Israel to spend trillions on military, mass murder people, and commit genocide. Starting in 1945, the US demonstrated by dropping atomic bombs on civilians, carpet bombed Korea, staged numerous coups and regime changes, tortured people, dropped more bombs on SE Asia than WWII.. etc. etc.
The West does not need Israel to demonize Russia, attack civilians in Donbass, and provoke Russia into a nuclear confrontation.
It is comforting for some to blame all this on Israel, but that lets the imperial overlords off the hook.
And Friedrich Merz openly stated that Israel is doing our “dirty work”.
The more accurate question is: When is the West going to realize that their governments and mass media are corrupt, amoral and self-destructive?
Interesting… then why is it acceptable to criticize our own governments, military and people…
But not the Israelis? That is being made a “hate crime” by the US DoJ…
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/05/paul-craig-roberts/trumps-sedition-act-for-israel/
We’re all Palestinians now.
With the full assistance and support of so-called Christians, why blame only Jews and not the white christian enablers?
Oh and we are not Palestinians, far from it. I had not noticed that we are being bombed, put in concentration camps, tortured and murdered like the Palestinians. Since when did the UK or US give a fk about Palestinians? Look at the history of Mandate Palestine. I know it’s not cool to read history, but come on…
It’s all the Zionists fault, our wonderful Christian leaders are just helpless victims and all that eh?
Maybe you should take your own advice?
Legal US residents are being deported for criticizing Israel…
38 U.S. states have laws requiring individuals or businesses to pledge not to boycott Israel as a condition for state contracts or benefits…
Emeror Claudius wrote a letter to the Alexandrians… check out the last paragraph…
https://www.csun.edu/~hcfll004/claualex.html
There’s your history…
Know your enemy.
Merz was referring to Israel taking on Iran as a benefit to the world.
This should not be generalized to an “Israel does the USA’s dirty work” suggestion.
And the plucky “does the dirty work” Israel quickly got the USA sucked into Iran in a massive way.
Of course, when did Merz attain wise man status making him quote worthy?
Because those are “western values” and Merz had a moment of candor it is indicative of the attitude.
Did Israel overthrow the Mossadegh govt in 1953? Did Israel install the Shah? Folks have a very short memory. The UK/US has been meddling in Iranian affairs even before Israel existed. It’s called empire and global primacy. Do you also blame Israel for the war on Russia? What about the historical animosity toward China? That’s all Israel?
But the one-trick pony crowd says “it’s all Israel”, our non-Jewish (so-called Christian) white elites all LOVE Israel, haven’t you noticed? They are profiting from US foreign policy.
Jews and non-Jews who are members of the oligarchy don’t give a fk about us, it aint just the Zionists. This is what happens when a society becomes utterly corrupted.. But knee-jerk says it’s all the Israelis fault. If Israel disappeared today, the US would still genocide Cuba,
The agreement-incapable character of the US (and the West – see the age of colonialism) argues that the “negotiations*” are a sham facade. So why is Iran even playing in the same sandbox?
By demanding the release of funds before signing an MOU, which is an agreement (in my understanding) of a talks framework – I cannot use the word negotiations – they are showing they have internalized the agreement incapability of the US. Are you watching, Russia?
*negotiating with Trump = playing checkers with a pigeon. or = talking (shouting) past each other.
Found several origins/versions but all work (it was not Putin who used it first or maybe at all):
“Arguing with a bad politician is like playing chess with a pigeon. No matter how good your argument, the pigeon is going to knock all the pieces over, crap all over the board, and strut around like he is victorious.”
‘Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
@chigrl
Gulf States Tell Ships Not to Use Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Route
Five Middle Eastern countries have formally rejected Iran’s establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz.’
Yeah, I wouldn’t want to be on a ship testing that theory by going through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian clearance. So maybe those five Middle Eastern countries should have opposed Trump’s war before it even started instead of letting their countries be used as platforms to attack Iran with. Now that is one ship that has well and truly sailed.
And Iran has rejected the presence of US bases on these countries territory…
Five weeks until the “250” July 4th party. Somehow the overlords have made it through the US Memorial Day holiday before The Collapse … Memorial Day = “the start of summer” and “the start of the holiday DRIVING season”. The next big milestone is the US July 4th Independence Day holiday.
I don’t think the Trump guy cares about the November US national election, I suspect his primary goal is for his July 4th Happy 250th Birthday USA to be a spectacle. Other politicians may have fantasies of October having plenty of food and shopping and low gas prices … so I suspect this deal/no deal will continue for at least five more weeks …
At-the-pump gasoline price is the single biggest discussion topic in the US. I hear people, “regular people”, talk about gas prices coming down … many intelligent people I have talked to have not grokked the cataclysmic nature of the situation at all …
I do have to say they have played this brilliantly so far, the fact that the US and world have not collapsed yet is amazing. How much longer can they keep it up? We’re gonna find out! … Yves mentioned July a couple times as the day the music will stop, as long as it is after July 4th, I think the Trump guy will think himself a hero.
At some point we will probably see desperate people, powered by AI hallucinations, attempting to “moonshine” or just render down everything around them into gasoline. Real Mad Max vibes…
Oohf. Hope nobody trying a garage refinery is witin a mile of my inner suburban abode.
We’re literally with you, as far as urban location goes. We once lived several blocks away from a meth house that “mysteriously” went up in flames. That fire was stupendous! You might have thought that there were stockpiles of flammable chemicals in that building.
Gasoline supplies will be the least of our worries.
Stay safe.
http://www.robertsarmory.com/gas.htm
Coal and wood burning cars in WW2. You sometimes see them in old movies.
Maybe Stirling engines will make a comeback? Not as good as ICE jobs, but beats the snot out of walking or managing horses.
World Cup is also starting soon, another event he’s likely to try pinning on his label
Looking forward to the 250th WWE cage match on the White House lawn. Could be the start of something big. In 2176 we could have the 50th Annual WWE Cage Match On The White House Lawn. Or they could move it indoors to the DJT Ballroom and have the 50th Annual WWE Cage Match Duel To The Death. Odoacer at the gate!
Manic Trump Kicks Off Memorial Day With 6:15AM Rage Post
https://www.thedailybeast.com/manic-trump-kicks-off-memorial-day-with-615am-rage-post/
Netanyahu admits difficulty influencing Trump decisions on Iran, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-admits-difficulty-influencing-trump-decisions-iran-sources-say-2026-05-25/
China’s Xi meets Pakistan PM Sharif as Iran war looms
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/china-pakistan-meeting-xi-jinping-shehbaz-sharif-iran-us-war-6140341
Rubio denounces Hezbollah threats to overthrow Lebanese gov’t
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-897190
Re: Netanyahu admits difficulty influencing Trump… OH NO! Whatever will we do. The horror. Cue the mega donors riding to the rescue. Trump may be a difficult for Israeli government officials but he has always been very receptive to big money telling him what to do. It is disgusting that we have traitors in our midst with so much money dedicated to wasting US lives and resources on their absurd fantasies.
It is also tragically stupid that on Memorial Day we should exhibit no recall of our past mistakes. We will be decorating the graves of citizens who sacrificed their lives for actions that meant nothing to our country far into the future. It is hard to not feel despair at the current situation. Or rage. I know we’re not going to stop until we’ve been forced to stop. The image I keep in my mind is that we could vitrify the world in nuclear fire and then, when we realize that devastation still hasn’t preserved our empire, our leaders will demand that we pick up the glassy rocks and throw them at our enemies.
By Executive Order on Feb 14, 2025, roughly 3-weeks after his inauguration, Trump ordered “Establishing the National Energy Dominance Council” which states among other things, the NEDC would, “Provide to the President a recommended National Energy Dominance Strategy to produce more energy that includes long-range goals for achieving energy dominance…”
From the WH: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/establishing-the-national-energy-dominance-council/
You infer from the document and related statements that foreign countries are in the crosshairs. I think it’s worth repeating a few facts. For decades, Russia supplied energy to Europe through pipelines, 80% of which flowed through Ukraine, and a substantial amount flowed from Nord Stream; that’s gone; thanks to Biden.
Trump was high after the Maduro kidnapping not because it was successful but because taking Venezuela’s oil and minerals was so easy. China was Venezuela’s biggest buyer; that’s gone. Trump also suggested annexing Canada and Greenland.
No doubt Iran is an Israeli target. Yet, the US is the dominant force in West Asia among the vassal GCC states and taking Iranian oil means controlling the entire region which I think is something Trump sees as part of his “Dominance” strategy. China is a major importer oil from GCC states and Iran; not now.
I think the Iran war is a disaster but these start/stop negotiations are because Trump is hanging on thinking there might still be time and a way might appear to take over Iran like he did Venezuela, and thereby contain China, Europe and a big chunk of the world. He is willing to risk, and likely to succeed, collapsing the global economy in the process.
US is not going to “take over” Iran and I bet none of the Gulf states feel at all convinced of the usefulness of their American alliances at the moment.
Trust the knuckleheads to always telegraph their punches…astonishingly arrogant. Kind of like the Ukies’ 2023 Zaporizhzhia Offensive. At least the man behind the curtain exercised a bit of discretion.
One statement by Brandon Weichert in the second Nawfal interview above offers a silver lining of sorts: “The Joint Chiefs told him[Trump] on February 27th, the day before the war, if you do this, you’re going to deplete all of the those 14 top systems that we need for other conflicts potentially against China. You’re going to deplete and we can’t restore them anytime soon.”
At risk of sounding like a Pollyanna, perhaps the u.s. will back off from provocations of China that might lead to war. Trump might limit his actions to invoking self-damaging tariffs, childish insults, and meaningless bluster. Admittedly, this silver lining is purchased at platinum prices.
I feel reckless today so I will leap out onto a high thin twig above a bed of jagged rocks.
Though it was already evident, a further possible benefit accruing from the war with Iran: today’s canonical economic doctrines have proven completely inadequate for analyzing the complex coupled effects consequential of squeezing the supply of one input, petroleum. To begin modeling the complexities of the Globalized world economy will require extending the existing Leontief input-output models to greater depths. I suspect the simple linear models should be replaced by more complex systems models, not unlike those used for modeling the climate. [I have not read Mirowski’s latest thoughts on economics but think Mirowski’s most recent writings tend in that direction, though as I recall, he comes to his theory by way of computational grammar theories.]
The US is wasting time and resources in overseas conflicts, National security should be built on domestic strength, specifically by securing our power grid and reducing global oil dependence. We have the technology, tools, solar, wind, advanced battery storage, nuclear power to make this happen.
We have the wrong people in place to make this happen.
As Amory Lovins wrote in foreign affairs in 1976.
Problem is there is too much money in control of the world’s energy and economy. Aka the u.s. empire. This is what allows the u.s. to have a 30 trillion dollar debt among other things.
Still, it is a good point and eventually we will take a different path than fossil fuel burning (climate crisis) and empire (nuclear annihilation) or cease to exist. Personally I choose life, though it will take a while to convince the rest of humanity.
Imo eventually is pretty close. A silver lining of this war is, ‘what do you do when you can’t buy/afford enough fossil to run your economy?’ Fossil has been the easiest path for about 130 years.
By a useful coincidence China has developed low cost batteries. Combined with increasingly efficient solar/wind farms the overall cost of electrical power is now imo cheaper than any fossil that is anyway jumping in price. Countries around the world are shifting from fossil, Including us where tech giants want to use green energy to run their big chip storage warehouses.
China might shift more labor to high critically needed green from stuff people can’t afford in recession.
US is a net exporter, for many years now I am convinced the real goal of Middle Eastern policy hasn’t been to secure a supply of oil at any rate, it’s been to control what can flow to China.
THere are multiple reports of DJT urging incoming Fed Chair Warsh to pursue independent monetary policy.
This is a noticeable contrast to the prior habit of criticizing Powell for being too slow to reduce rates.
What to make of the rhetorical shift? Perhaps DJT wants to position himself to be able to blame the coming real-economy problems on his “independent” Fed chair?
“Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is”
This presidency in a nutshell.
I keep going back to what Aurelien had said, about what escalation actually means; and America’s lack of ability to escalate in any meaningful way here, that another attack can only be weaker, and is a deescalation in practice.
Trump has no cards to play.
Ever since every MSM pundit became an instant expert in international conflict analysis in 2022, “escalation” has been waved around as if it’s an actual thing that you do or a button the president can decide to push, as opposed to a category of possible actions.
The US can “escalate” by occupying Iranian territory or by nuking Iran. Both of those would be escalations.
Aurelian’s point was that escalation implies that there is a ladder of achievable actions that would compel the other side to do what you want them to do. In neither of your options would Iran submit to the lunatic in Washington.
(“occupying Iranian territory” also has the downside of not being achievable with current forces in any significant way, beyond symbolically taking a meaningless flyspeck island, or temporarily occupying some port facility or another.)
Think of the US “expedition” to Siberia in 1917. A Woodrow Wilson production. And here we have a genius uni president expeditioning 8,000 guys to a country with 11 time zones. The educational system does not appear to have improved.
Citing violations of a ceasefire agreement, the Israeli military ordered the immediate evacuation of 10 villages in southern Lebanon ahead of anticipated strikes against alleged Hezbollah targets. Concurrently, far-right Israeli ministers are publicly demanding a full resumption of warfare.
https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5276396-israel-warns-imminent-strikes-10-lebanese-villages
Putin signs law authorizing use of military force to ‘protect Russian citizens’ abroad
https://kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-law-authorizing-use-of-military-force-abroad-to-protect-russian-citizens/
IDF: Key terrorist in Hamas weapons production headquarters eliminated in Gaza Strip
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rycl0z5uo
Russia says Armenia could lose cheap gas if it turns away from Moscow
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-says-armenia-could-lose-cheap-gas-if-it-turns-away-moscow-2026-05-25/
Trump links Abraham Accords to Iran deal; makes Israel ties ‘mandatory’ for Saudi, Qatar, Pakistan
https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/trump-links-abraham-accords-to-iran-deal-makes-israel-ties-mandatory-for-saudi-qatar-pakistan-11545304
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116635193825443617
Iran and everyone to sign the Abraham Accords! What an idea! Lunatic asylum material
Donald Trump is not a rational actor.
Perhaps Covid contributed to his mental decline or perhaps it is white matter disease.
Again, TRUMP IS NOT A RATIONAL ACTOR.
He is chaotic, in almost a pure sense.
Trump links Abraham Accords to any Iran deal (Reuters)
I guess April 1 fell in May this year.
“And I want a pony”,
As our good host says in such situations.
What is a mandatory request?
Threat.
“Please may I have another?”
He even threatens those countries if they don’t sign up. And has the hide to say that Iran should sign up as well. If this piece of magical bs happened, is it so that Netanyahu could use it to win his election again?
Apologies if this has been previously noted (I didn’t find it).
Glenn Diesen posted within the hour:
Chas Freeman: Crisis in Israel & Iranian Nuclear Weapons
His final note: History is unended…
Freeman, as always, makes astute observations.
I’m always fairly skeptical of claims about Iran being “a supporter of terrorism” or whatever. Terrorism has become a subjective and almost meaningless term in the last few decades, basically meaning Doing Something Western Powers Don’t Like.
But certainly we have reached the nadir if enriching uranium is the marker of a terrorist power. Any country with nuclear weapons is certainly guilty of this, notably the US, Israel, China, France, England, Russia, Pakistan, North Korea, and a number of others. Any country pursuing a nuclear electric power program is almost certainly guilty of enriching uranium as well, though to a lower concentration one hopes.
The original meaning of terrorism was something like doing violence to a non-combatant population in the hope of changing the political climate or achieving political goals. Almost all conventionally armed powers are guilty of doing this at one time or another, in particular the US, though it’s certainly not the only one.
I think we need a new word.
Israeli opposition leader Lapid says Trump’s emerging deal with Iran is `bad for the region’
https://apnews.com/article/israel-netanyahu-lapid-iran-elections-coalition-fa15b3bf47b0cd5ff2b3495644a9c32e
Meet the Aspiring Texas Oil Regulator Who Wants to Deport 100 Million People
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/meet-the-aspiring-texas-oil-regulator-who-wants-to-deport-100-million-people
Lavrov Threatens Systematic Air Strikes on Kyiv During Phone Call With US Secretary Marco Rubio
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/lavrov-threatens-systematic-air-strikes-on-kyiv-during-phone-call-with-us-secretary-marco-rubio-19166
Iran is beating Trump at the art of the deal
https://www.ft.com/content/24cd5d27-34f9-4286-bfdc-984843c25683?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“Trump Disappointment Syndrome”: Massie, Megyn Kelly say MAGA’s days are numbered
https://www.salon.com/2026/05/24/trump-disappointment-syndrome-massie-megyn-kelly-say-magas-days-are-numbered/
While perhaps more appropriate for Links, that Talking Points story is worth a look. Driving through Texas the distinct eau de petroleum is biting even from freeway distance when passing Midlands/Odessa. The candidate described in the article wants to stymie any new attempts to control the pollution.
Uh oh.
[RT] US jets attack Iranian naval vessels
US fighter jets have struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speedboats as explosions were heard near the port of Bandar Abbas, Iranian media reported.
More links re the above:
https://x.com/RyanRozbiani/status/2059041347097493543
Trump is ‘negotiating with bombs’ again because it worked so well first time.
“Works first time, every time!”
Sometrump paid too much attention to TV commercials earlier in life?
US jets strike IRGC boats near Bandar Abbas
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605254208
Netanyahu Says Israel Plans to Intensify Attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/25/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-hezbollah-lebanon.html
Makes me wonder if Iran will start more directly supporting Hezbollah at some point.
Explosions heard in Iran, cause unknown, Iranian media reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/explosions-heard-iran-cause-unknown-iranian-media-reports-2026-05-25/
According to Al Jazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/26/iran-war-live-israel-pounds-lebanon-iranian-officials-in-qatar-for-talks
The Desperate, Toxic, and Pathetic Crusade of Pete Hegseth
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/pete-hegseth-toxic-pathetic
Warning of US Unreliability and Israeli ‘Sabotage,’ Iran Refutes Trump Claim of Peace Deal
https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-war-negotiations
States sue over new student loan limits on certain nursing and healthcare degrees
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/19/nx-s1-5826688/lawsuit-student-loans-nursing-healthcare-graduate-degree
Why Any Plausible Iran Deal Is a Humiliation for Trump
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-any-plausible-iran-deal-is-a-humiliation-for-trump
Why Any Plausible Iran Deal Is a Humiliation for Trump
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-any-plausible-iran-deal-is-a-humiliation-for-trump
And another, from Dan Davis:
https://x.com/DanielLDavis1/status/2059046415670607933
“Killing four sailors…” yikes.
On the one hand, having the US return to form so I don’t have to hope for peace to break out is relieving. It’s easier to not care about a good possibility. It’s easier to not check for news and hope.
On the other hand, if Iran doesn’t come down with a hammer after this, it will reward our idiotic tantrum. I don’t see how we move through this period without the US getting smashed down. As I happen to live in the US there is no way I can see that my family will come out of this unscathed. Dark times ahead either way.
The Phony War
I love historical parallels, they keep me on my bs arc of history. Like living in a town that has a stock of useable structures that go back to the 17th century…at least the ones the English didn’t burn for kindling or didn’t finally fall to the latest era of modernization. I keep thinking of the Phony War. Donnie knows that he will not play golf anytime soon and have willing stooges give him a 36 handicap. The global exploiters have his right arm in a lock and similarly the multitude of USian Zionists have a firm grip on his left. It’s a predicament that the golden boy above all deserves, and we are all pained witnesses. At the end of the Phony War when poor donnie posts “YOU BETTER WATCH OUT” on truth social at 3:30AM…you will know that the poor tortured soul was left with no choice and will have to pull the trigger again on his grossly defective weapon. And Donnie LLC goes broke for the 7th time and takes the Melania coin and the rest of us with him.
A horror you would think but Its all cool. Her coin is currently selling for like nine and a half cents a pop post-rug pull. So you know, the scam be done, but there are still 20k+ holders of this blivit. Ya’ just can’t figure it. Am I piling on? Despite it all, she’ll continue to look like a million bucks. Anyway, beach day tomorrow and this qualifies for beach news: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/05/25/metro/millionaires-tax-massachusetts
I’m waitin for the cubanos to whip out the old M-1s that they carried down from the hills for their Yankee Go Home rally…that would be a fine historical arc.
Late in every empire, it boils down to procuring lootable assets by those in charge, and here we are in the midst of the USA about to give up it’s hegemony, and our leader is preoccupied with snatch & grab.
“Oil prices gain more than 2% as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran add to uncertainty surrounding a potential peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. attacked targets in southern Iran in what American military officials described as defensive strikes–a sign that a fragile cease-fire between Washington and Tehran might be coming under strain. Brent crude is up 2% to $95.24 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 2.1% to $91.77 a barrel. The benchmarks fell sharply in the previous session on signs that the two sides were moving closer to an agreement.” (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
MARKET CHARLIE BROWN
I don’t get this at all – Mr Market is Charlie Brown, lining up to kick the Depression Football, and Trump is Lucy.
Every time someone in the Trump Menagerie points out that the market is about to collapse, Trump comes out with some imaginary, urgent negotiations with Iran and pulls away the ball every time.
Will Mr Market ever kick the ball?