[Today’s post yet again went live before finished. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a completed version]
Bloomberg, due to its great reach with investors, is a useful starting point on the official version of Iran news of the day, even though it curiously averts its eyes from Israel predictably acting as a spanner to any resolution of the conflict. Israel is continuing to pound Southern Lebanon as Hezbollah rejected an Israel-favoring ceasefire scheme. Recall that Iran is now also insisting that Israel halt its aggression in Gaza and the West Bank.
From its landing page:
We’ll turn to the nuclear-related negotiations soon, but note the reader-perception-influencing use of “stonewall” as if Iran was legally obligated to Do Something about its enriched uranium when it isn’t.
First from Bloomberg in US-Iran Talks Progress Stalls After Hezbollah Rejects Truce:
- There was no sign of progress in ceasefire talks between the US and Iran after the worst burst of violence in weeks.
- President Donald Trump said ceasefire talks are in the “final” stages, while Iran’s foreign minister said the negotiations had stalled.
- Hezbollah militants rejected a US-brokered truce in Lebanon, with its chief calling the deal “absurd” and refusing to link its presence in Lebanon with stopping the war…..
Trump has repeatedly claimed a deal is close even as Iran refuses to give in to his demands on its nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Aljazeera helpfully chronicles how Israel is thumbing its nose at the US attempts at implementing a ceasefire in Lebanon. Even though Israel made a tiny gesture in the direction of respecting Trump via not resuming attacks on Beirut, it has been pounding Southern Lebanon hard. From Israel continues strikes, forced displacement as Lebanon ceasefire in doubt:
- Israel’s deadly strikes continue across Lebanon despite the announcement of a new US-brokered ceasefire agreed between Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington, DC.
- At least 3,526 people have now been killed and 10,733 injured in Israeli strikes on Lebanon since March 2, the country’s Health Ministry said.
From the body of that live feed:
Israeli military issues new round of forced displacement orders in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military has issued a new round of forced displacement orders for the residents of Sarafand, Tuffahta, Babliyeh, Qaqaiyat al-Sanoubar, Marwaniyeh, and Siksikieh in southern Lebanon…
Earlier, the Israeli military issued forced displacement warnings for Aarnaya, Aanqoun and Kfar Kila, three villages and towns in southern Lebanon.
Israel has continued to pound Lebanon with deadly attacks despite the announcement of a new US-brokered ceasefire on Thursday.
And:
Israel kills at least four in wave of attacks on southern Lebanon
Israel has launched another wave of deadly attacks across southern Lebanon, killing several people and hitting residential areas, roads and towns before dawn, Lebanon’s official National News Agency reported…
Israeli aircraft also bombed Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Zibdine, Shoukin and Jebchit, as artillery fire hit Kfar Tebnit, Kfar Reman and areas around Mayfadoun.
Another Israeli strike on Qalawiya Tower killed one person and wounded another.
Near Tyre, Israeli warplanes struck close to Jabal Amel Hospital, targeting the Bank Audi area. In Khiam, Israeli forces carried out a heavy machinegun sweep and a major demolition operation in Bab al-Thaniya.
Finally, Netahyahu is again defying Trump by asserting that there is no ceasefire pact:
Netanyahu reportedly said ‘no agreement’ while Hezbollah opposed to Lebanon ceasefire
Israeli media outlet Ynet is reporting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s government has not yet approved the implementation of the US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government.
“There is currently no agreement; Hezbollah is opposed, and therefore I am not making a decision. If they agree, I will bring it to your approval,” Netanyahu is reported to have said at a security cabinet meeting on Thursday evening.
From Middle East Eye’s live feed, now headlined Live: Hezbollah chief demands ‘comprehensive’ ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal:
Halting resistance is ‘Satan’s dream of Paradise’ to Israel, Hezbollah top leader says
Hezbollah Secretary General, Naim Qassem, asserted that the group would continue to resist Israeli attacks.
“For the primary objective to be the disarmament of the resistance as a starting point for any agreement means the elimination of Lebanon’s power and an existential threat to the annihilation of its resistant people,” he said.
He said that the group’s main concern is a “comprehensive cessation of hostilities, a ceasefire, and Israel’s withdrawal” from Lebanese territory.
“The ceasefire must be comprehensive; there can be no separation between the South and the rest of Lebanon, and the Israeli enemy will not have the freedom to kill in Lebanon,” Qassem expressed. “As long as the occupation persists, the resistance will continue.”
Hezbollah abandoning the country’s southern front amid continued Israeli military advancement is “like Satan’s dream of entering
Israeli attacks ongoing despite latest ceasefire agreement
Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon continued on Friday morning, despite a US-led ceasefire agreement reached late on Wednesday.
According to the National News Agency, Israeli shelling targeted the area nearby Nabatieh’s Burj Qalaouiyah and the area around Deir Kifa in Tyre.
Meanwhile, an air strike that hit the vicinity of Jabal Amel Hospital has lead to the wounding of at least 12 civilians.
More commentary:
🪖 SOUTH LEBANON — IDF orders new evacuations as the ceasefire exists only on paper.
📌 LOOK CLOSER: New evacuation orders signal a ground push, not a ceasefire adjustment. With Hezbollah rejecting the framework and Israel refusing withdrawal, Lebanon has shifted from diplomatic… pic.twitter.com/mjgpUHlgUF
— perceptiondaily (@perceptiondaily) June 5, 2026
Hezbollah does appear to be inflicting more pain on the IDF:
🚨BREAKING: Hezbollah Inflict An Israeli Soldier Massacre & Hit A Base Across The Border
A mass casualty event was reported following a “complex ambush” carried out against Israeli forces operating north of the Litani River in south Lebanon.
A base has also been struck by an…
— MintPress News (@MintPressNews) June 4, 2026
Daniel Davis provided a useful high-level recap of the fake ceasefire in Lebanon and why the new iteration is yet another headfake. This segment is suitable for sharing with friends and contacts who are not fully up to speed on this topic.
Davis also shows how Netanyahu brushed off the recent lovers’ spat with Trump, and explains the danger of pending legislation that would “fuse: key aspects of Israel’s military with the US. He urges viewers to raise hell with Congresscritters and particularly recommends in-person visits.
If you press your Congresscritter, note that additional unwarranted goodies for Israel are hidden in other bills and should be stripped out:
NEW: Buried within the Senate Intelligence Authorization Act is a provision to increase intelligence sharing with Israel and impede the president's ability to reduce cooperation in the future. pic.twitter.com/ET2ZWnfJWP
— Daniel Boguslaw (@DRBoguslaw) June 3, 2026
By contrast, in his latest post, Robert Pape pussy-foots around the issue of US policy (and the world economy) being subordinated to Israel’s extreme sense of entitlement. By contrast, Davis, Douglas Macgregor, Larry Wikerson, and other experts for some time have been debating who is in charge in the US, at least as far as Middle East policy. So Pape’s post, The Lebanon Fuse tries to frame the issue as Lebanon, as opposed to putting Israeli intransigence front and center. Notice the lack of agency at the very top:
The most important fact is not that a ceasefire was announced.
The most important fact is that military operations continued anyway.
Pape later adds:
From Tehran’s perspective, Hezbollah is not simply another regional partner. It is the most important pillar of Iran’s deterrent network outside its own borders. Iranian leaders have increasingly signaled that any durable agreement with Washington requires the survival of Hezbollah as a meaningful military and political force. In effect, Iran has made Israel’s campaign in Lebanon a central issue in the broader negotiations. A deal that leaves Hezbollah broken is far less attractive to Tehran than a deal that preserves its most important regional proxy.
That creates a direct collision between Israeli and Iranian objectives.
Israel’s actions over the past several months reveal objectives that extend far beyond immediate retaliation against Hezbollah. Israeli leaders have repeatedly spoken of maintaining a permanent security zone in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces currently occupy hundreds of square kilometers of Lebanese territory. Large portions of southern Lebanon have been emptied through evacuation orders and continuing military operations.
From a strategic perspective, this creates its own logic.
Once a buffer zone becomes central to Israeli security planning, pressure emerges to push potential threats farther away. That means continued military pressure on Hezbollah. It means continued operations in Lebanon. And it means powerful incentives to resist diplomatic arrangements that leave Hezbollah intact as an organized military force.
At the same time, Israeli leaders remain deeply skeptical of U.S.-Iran diplomacy. Any agreement that stabilizes Iran while leaving Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian partners intact would be viewed by many inside Israel as postponing rather than solving the larger strategic problem.
The result is an increasingly familiar escalation trap.
· Washington wants negotiations.
· Jerusalem wants security.
· Tehran wants Hezbollah preserved.
The problem is not simply disagreement. The problem is that the three objectives increasingly exclude one another. Washington cannot obtain a durable agreement if Hezbollah is dismantled. Tehran cannot accept a durable agreement if Hezbollah is dismantled.
I’ll let readers have at this, but I find this presenation to be astonishing. Pape completely ignores that Hezbollah is party in Lebanon, part of the government, and among other things provides social services. Or has Pape chosen to amplify State Department misrepresentations?
The US statement is wrong. Hezbollah cannot be defined as a 'non-state actor'. It has ministers in cabinets, holds parliamentary seats (13-15 recently, plus allies), influences government formation, and provides services in Shia areas. It operates within the Lebanese state…
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 4, 2026
Contrast Pape’s reading with a new Hindustan Times segment which highlights Mojtaba Kahmenei’s latest speech, in which Mojtaba depicted the US/Israel war as a campaign against Iran’s civilization, which has the great merit of being (significantly) true. It also includes what sure look like fresh if not overlarge attacks on Tehran and other cities.
To the next issue with (relying on Bloomberg as our guide to what investors and the mainstream view as noteworthy), via Iran Allows Bushehr Nuclear Inspection, Stonewalls Over Uranium:
Iran permitted monitors at the United Nations atomic watchdog this week to visit its Bushehr nuclear power plant while stonewalling inspectors’ demands to verify the condition and location of its enriched uranium stockpile.
While the visit to Bushehr was welcomed by the International Atomic Energy Agency, it failed to resolve growing concern over the Islamic Republic’s inventory of near-bomb-grade uranium, according to a report by the group. That material — enough to craft about a dozen warheads — hasn’t been verified for a year.
While monitors conducted a three-day visit to Bushehr, “the agency has not received information from Iran regarding the status of any of its other declared nuclear activities,” according to the 10-page restricted report seen by Bloomberg….
IAEA inspections plummeted by more than half last year after Iran imposed new restrictions following the 12-day war that saw Israel and the US bombard their nuclear sites. Monitors have yet to return to damaged sites in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, where Iran’s 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) and 8,599.6 kilograms of lower enriched material was last seen.
Yours truly welcomes input on what Iran’s obligations are under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Iran signed in the days of the Shah. A never-mentioned-in-polite-company reason for Iran digging its heels in about International Atomic Energy Agency visits is that the IAEA is widely believed in Iran and also by some experts outside Iran to have provided Israel with information that assisted Israel in assassinations of Iran’s nuclear scientists. Articles like Nuclear Safeguards – How far can Inspectors go? on the IAEA’s own site make clear that the matter is not clear cut. An illustrative section:
During an NPT inspection, how widely within the inspected country may inspectors look? May they search only those areas that the NPT member has declared to have nuclear activities? May they look for activities that do not
include nuclear material but may nevertheless relate to nuclear weaponization?Weaponization activities can vary. They might include learning how to design or make nuclear weapons or their components using calculations, computer simulations, models, high-flux neutron generators, high-explosive lenses, high-energy electrical components, hydro-dynamic tests and many other activities that do not require the pres ence of nuclear material. Yet such activities may be useful for making nuclear weapons.
Can IAEA inspectors look for such activities at places other than those where nuclear material is present? If they do, may they ask responsible personnel about the purpose of the activities?
Given Israel’s unpopularity across the world, the time may have come for Iran to balk at going beyond what would be considered cursory IAEA inspections unless Israel joins the NPT. Keep in mind that Iran has been escalating its demands bit by bit as US impotence becomes more evident and the pain of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. This would have the further salutary effect in the US of widening debate over the extraordinary privileges we provide to Israel at great cost to our own citizens.
This rumor is not confirmed but is the sort of thing the US would do. Mind you, Iran has been braced for a US attack ever since the lame ceasefire started:
US has informed Iran if it does not make a deal military strikes will begin according to sources.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) June 4, 2026
And even though it does not impact the current state of play, a new CNN story, Exclusive: Video reveals damage from fire on US aircraft carrier after sources say fire control system failed, demonstrates the US tendency to greatly underplay the seriousness of damage suffered. Key sections:
When a fire burned aboard the world’s biggest aircraft carrier in March as it took part in operations against Iran, the US Navy released a short statement saying the blaze had been “contained,” that two sailors had received medical treatment for “non-life-threatening injuries” and that the carrier was “fully operational.”
But new video obtained by CNN makes clear the fire was more severe and damaging than the Navy suggested. Bunks where sailors slept were totally destroyed, the video shows. What remained of the beds was charred, twisted metal beneath a ceiling also apparently hollowed out by the inferno. Wires dangled from the ceiling and heaps of ashes littered the ground around the bunks, according to the video.
“I seriously thought we were going to lose the ship,” one sailor aboard the ship, the USS Gerald R. Ford, told CNN, describing how he felt while fighting the fire. “It’s either fight or die.”
The ship’s fire-suppression system failed to work, leaving the sailors scrambling to put out the blaze, according to the sailor and a senior US official familiar with the incident.
And on a small informational matter: Iran sources are saying that the photos that allegedly show a Shahed drone hitting the Kuwait Airport do not in fact establish Iran’s responsibility….because they are from the wrong time of day:
Iranian military correspondent for Tasnim:
Didn’t we attack the US bases during the night? Why’s the footage from the attack on Kuwait’s airport during day time?
Which is a very valid point. The launch footages Iran released clearly shows it’s during night time. https://t.co/rbfLzEb1Cb
— Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) (@AryJeayBackup) June 4, 2026
And on the economic front, oil executives are making sure they are not blamed when the US hits the oil cliff, which an Exxon executive forecasts as coming in two to three weeks. That estimate is in line with commodity maven Jeff Currie’s call of around July 4. From Politico (hat tip reader Timmy) in Oil industry warns Trump administration of price spikes within weeks
The oil industry is warning the Trump administration that a Hormuz-sized hole in the world’s petroleum market is steadily draining inventories to levels that are likely to send global energy prices surging in the next several weeks, according to four executives.
Industry executives have flagged the issue to senior White House officials and Cabinet members in recent weeks as part of the Trump administration’s ongoing dialogue with the U.S. energy industry, the people said. The warnings came as recently as late last month as data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other sources began showing that fuel makers were increasingly relying on oil and fuel from their storage tanks to replace products no longer arriving from the Middle East.
“We’re at dangerously low levels already,” said one industry executive who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations with the administration. “We have shared those concerns at the highest levels of government about what’s coming in mid-to-late June. … I hope they are paying attention to inventories right now. You’re hitting tank bottom.”…
Some of the conversations have been general warnings while others have focused on tight inventories of specific fuel types in particular locations, such as jet fuel on the West Coast, a second person involved in the conversations said.
The information around what is happening with shipments leaving the Persian Gulf and getting to their buyers is so polluted as to make it hard to conclude anything. Sal Mercogliano has pointed out that the transit numbers the Persian Gulf Authority provides includes many small wooden-hulled ships and thus does not give a good sense of how much in meaningful oil and cargo hauling is happening. Similarly, even when ships evade the US blockade area in the Sea of Oman, they typically do so via staying within the territorial waters of Pakistan and then India. But after that, they need to use open sea, and the US navy has pounced on some vessels there.
So we don’t know for sure how many of these ships will reach their destinations:
BREAKING: Multiple Iranian-flagged oil tankers carrying 7 million barrels of oil to China successfully broke through the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the first breach since April 17, per Kpler.
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) June 4, 2026
A recent story from Lloyd’s List says the US blockade has had an impact on Iran. From Iranian crude exports collapse under US naval blockade:
- May exports fell 84% from April and were 87% below the average recorded between May 2025 and April 2026
- Iran has shifted to smaller tankers as VLCCs leaving its ports face a higher risk of interdiction by US forces
- The export slump has forced Iran to cut crude production by 800,000 bpd, or 10% month on month, likely keeping exports constrained in the near term
- Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline throughput has been increasing with rising production but constraints at Yanbu is limiting exports
On the private credit front, more ugly news from a then Financial Times lead story, Blackstone caps withdrawals from flagship private credit fund. Note that just about none of these articles clearly explain the central problem: Private credit assets are illiquid. They are loans the fund intended to hold to maturity. But to get more investors into the pool, the managers offered a limited ability to withdraw funds. Oopsie!
From the article:
Blackstone has restricted withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund for the first time after redemption requests surged to $4.5bn in the second quarter, in a sign of the mounting pressure on the asset class.
The world’s largest private investment group said investors in the $45bn Blackstone Private Credit Fund, known as Bcred, attempted to withdraw 10 per cent of the fund’s net assets in the period. The fund granted redemption requests amounting to 5 per cent of its value.
For the first time, Blackstone relied on a mechanism that allows it to restrict investors from pulling their money, following rivals such as Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, KKR and Ares Management, which capped redemptions earlier this year.
Blackstone said the fund’s “structure is a fundamental feature, with investors exchanging some liquidity at times for long-term outperformance”. The firm pointed to Bcred’s 9.3 per cent annualised return since its launch.
The New York-headquartered group also said redemption requests “decelerated” in the second half of May, a signal that outflows from semi-liquid funds could be reaching a peak. Shares of Blackstone rallied 8 per cent in Thursday morning trading.
The exodus from private credit has nonetheless shaken the alternative investment industry, which had tethered its growth to a massive influx of capital from Main Street investors.
Wealth and retail investors have grown wary in recent months, however, as rapid advances in AI have raised questions over the prospects of private equity-backed enterprise software companies, many of which have been financed by private credit groups.
On Thursday, the FT reported that Swiss-listed Partners Group was preparing to cap withdrawals at its flagship US private equity fund for wealthy individuals, a day after gating its European equivalent.
Earlier this week, another very large private credit fund run by investment group Cliffwater told investors that redemption requests had surged to 17 per cent in the quarter.
Blackstone’s decision to honour 100 per cent of investor redemption requests in the first quarter, even as withdrawals rose to 7.9 per cent — breaching a 5 per cent threshold that would have allowed it to gate the fund — opened a rift in the investment industry.
Large rivals and wealth advisers were frustrated by the decision, concerned it would suggest to retail investors that the so-called semiliquid funds they had bought offered more liquidity than promised.
For those new to this topic, or who want a refresher, or would like to educated interested friends and colleagues, the new Jeff Snider talk is extremely good in presenting a lot of detail about how the funds work and why they are now the subject of investor worries in a layperson-friendly manner that is technically accurate, which is no mean featL:
More on screwworm as a beef price increase multiplier. IMHO this is a proper use of all caps:
IF YOU THINK BEEF PRICES ARE HIGH NOW, IMAGINE WHAT THEY WILL BE AFTER FLESH EATING MAGGOTS WIPE OUT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE REMAINING US CATTLE SUPPLY
WE NEED A NATIONAL EMERGENCY DECLARATION ON NEW WORLD SCREWWORM NOW, WE ARE TIRED OF WAITING FOR COMPETENT ACTION
— Meriwether Farms (@MeriwetherFarms) June 4, 2026
The US spent millions every year tracking and releasing sterile screwworm flies to keep the population controlled and prevent it spreading north of Central America, then Donald Trump and Elon Musk paid those people to resign under the DOGE efforts.
They did this. https://t.co/TAnNEbejl6 pic.twitter.com/4DkqXJceOv
— chris cross big apple sauce 🍎🗽🍕🥯 (@notchrisvolpe) June 4, 2026
We have been warning the public on New World Screwworm for over a year now (some much longer than us)
We even had our account on X suspended for a month when we showed a picture of what an infection looks like in a human, shortly before there was a human case confirmed in the US…
— Meriwether Farms (@MeriwetherFarms) June 4, 2026
If you are in the US and are not a strict vegetarian, beef price increases will affect you. Beef consumers are likely to pare their purchases of beef and buy pork, chicken, and fish in bigger amounts, putting pressure on prices on those protein sources.
Done for today! Whether I see you over the weekend or the next Iran post is on Monday will be determined by developments. Let’s hope things are comparatively quiet.
I saw Pape on Breaking Points early in this war, where he discussed critiques of him that he was “rooting for the bad guys” and he clarified that he was just calling it like it is, and he was “rooting for the good guys,” specifically America and Israel. He couldn’t have provided a better tell. I am not surprised that he isn’t interested in untangling competing interests amongst the “good guys” or that he is uninterested in considering who is the de facto manager of the “good guy” team. I think Pape provides good analysis, but he is completely pro-Empire, and probably knows where his bread is buttered in his willful blindness. I also saw him on Mario repeating British propaganda about Russian casualties and claiming Putin is also in an “escalation trap” and he is far too smart not to know better given the capabilities on both sides, body exchanges, etc., to be claiming crap in the Economist is the gospel truth.
The Hezbollah Question can be viewed from a “good guy” perspective from the other side. Personally, while I believe in the existence of actual “good guys” and “good gals,” I have yet to discover a “good” nation-state. However, all of Iran’s actions can be viewed as a demonstration of their power. If they can get nukes despite America and Israel going to war to prevent them from getting nukes, that is a real demonstration of power. If they can get control over SOH, that is a real demonstration of power. If they can get Israel to back down in Lebanon, and institutionalize Hezbollah as a legitimate stakeholder, they both defeat and contain Israel and further entrench the Resistance in the ME. This would be a massive victory.
My guess is that Iran understands it has a winning hand, they are going to play diplomacy for public relations purposes, but they know the US can’t control Israel, and that the US and Israel might say things or even put them on paper but won’t implement. If they demand implementation prior to Iran actually doing anything, then they can play diplomacy forever, while pursuing the war. The “ceasefire” probably works, because the US is very limited in its capacity to escalate without catastrophe, and if Iran disproportionately retaliates when the US or Israel attacks, they minimize damage to themselves, and make the adversary look weak. I think Iran is looking to destroy Trump’s Presidency, and make an example of him, and I suspect they want to inflict a long-lasting and strategic defeat on the Israeli’s. If they have nukes or probably have nukes, then it further ties Israel’s hands, and they can just let the economic consequences of the closure of the SOH and potentially the Red Sea wreck the world until the “good guys” throw in the towel. If this happens, my request would be to rename the SOH the Straights of Trump so his legacy will be remembered forever.
Maybe when the first Trump-class battleship is launched, it can be named the USS Busted Flush in his honour.
I kinda like “USS Royal Flush”.
John McDonald would be rolling in his grave.
“The Battleship Grey Fogbank”
Travis tries to figure whats going on, but it’s murky…
USS Busted Flush is already taken – that’d be the new name for the USS Gerald Ford…
A Trump-class battleship will give new meaning to “sunk costs.”
KD wrote > I think Pape provides good analysis, but he is completely pro-Empire
Indeed but who in the media that we rely on is not? I can count them on one hand: Helmer, Blumenthal, Maté, Hudson, Wolff. Who else? Scahill perhaps?
The JNap, Diesen, Duran and Dan Davis crowd are mostly conservatives whose fundamental critique is that the empire is run by corrupt incompetents. Plenty of them were campaigners for Trump hoping for appointments and failed to get them, perhaps because Israel or pro-Israel donors disapproved.
Simplicius, Krapivnik and Sleboda are something else again.
Of the Judge Nap crowd, I have come to like Karen Kwiatkowski, although she like most of the military types should STFU on economics
Dimitri Lascaris is an old leftie who often has very useful assessments
Greg Stoker is REALLY good but he hardly ever gets air time (once in a while on Danny Haiphong).
I have only seen a bit of Patrick Henningsen, due apparently being suppressed by the algos, which is already a point in his favor, but what I have seen is solid.
Alon Mizrahi is all about Israel and takes too many words to get his ideas out but his observations are worthwhile and he does provide a transcript.
Vanessa Beeley has spent a lot of time on the ground in the Middle East. Her latest: Will Iran respond to the Zionist ethnic cleansing campaign in Lebanon? https://beeley.substack.com/p/will-iran-respond-to-the-zionist. She sometimes appears with Fiorella Isabell, who is very good.
There are also quite few good writers, some of whom post only occasionally. Most are Substackers, such as
I am sure I am missing quite a few good names but this might stimulate readers to add to the list.
Chas Freeman is among the best. Every time I watch him I feel some satisfaction that at one time the US had outstanding diplomats who were also good human beings.
Alastaire Crooke, another former diplomat, is excellent.
Jacques Braud and Elijah Magnier are very well versed on Labanon in particular.
Another commentator I have been following for some time is Helena Cobban, who recently interviewed Magnier on her substance.
@Yves Smith at 10:29 am
Many thanks for these names Yves.
My recommendation for a mostly polite rebuttal in the good guys, bad guys debate is Indrajit Samarajiva, find him at indi.ka.
His observations can sting: it ain’t a war unless Europe is involved, hence the Ukraine war but Operation Epic Fury…
Definitely not your grandpa’s PoV.
Don’t sleep on the ACP aka American 🇺🇸 Communist Party, which has been doing great stuff IRL and has the correct economic theory AFAIK.
Check out their party program. Numereaux Uneaux is Debt Cancellation.
We all need to band together in an Anti Epstein Coalition, a Popular Front of you will, all around the world.
My wish is for a Presidential Candidate in 2028 that gets enough of a push to lift up a new economic direction for America and the West.
I appreciate lists like this from people you trust.
He is not as prolific as some of the others, but I cannot say enough good things about Justin Podur (The Anti-Empire Project), and then you have all of the people at The Electronic Intifada. Justin and the EI journalists have all spent time in Palestine performing activism there.
Calla Walsh
Sharmine Narwani
And if you like to laugh while listening to your commentary, I strongly recommend Nick Cruse, especially if you consider yourself a serious leftist (anti-capitalist)
Jamarl Thomas is a great interviewer with many great guests on his podcast.
When it comes to podcasts, I spend more time listening to Nick and Jamarl than any of the others.
The Duran guys are in go way, shape or form pro Empire.
They are conservative but in a sorta JRR Tolkien-esque sense (who despised the British Empire while it was still very much ongoing).
They hanker (unrealistically and especially in Mercouris’s case very naively) for the idea of a more competent and rational leadership of the empire but not because they want it to be better at empiring.
Mercouris has talked endlessly about how much better off the US would be If they stopped being an empire, stopped trying to run the world.
He thinks a more competent and rational, smarter leadership would realize that ande give up on America’s nonsensical imperial ambitions as the only rational way forward.
I think he is wrong but I have never seen the slightest sign that he doesn’t believe what he says he believes.
Being conservative in some social sense doesn’t automatically make one pro empire, in the case of the Duran dudes I’d say that borders on slander.
The Duran are the Village Green Preservation Society?
;)
You are correct. the Duran guys are just about the most anti-USempire people you will find. They are the most pro-Axis of Resistance, pro-Russia, pro-China, pro-Iran youtubers with any kind of a large-ish following.
Not sure about Cristoforu, but Mercouris is not even a conservative in any way, shape or form. This dude has been following Russian media and analyzing Kremlin readouts since the 1970’s, back when Russia was Soviet Union. And loving them. Back then he would’ve been called a Communist sympathizer and a radical progressive.
The fact that they are not “modern” progressives in the manner that you have currently in the US, like making giving out transgender surgeries to every schoolkid and so on, does not make them a “conservative”.
They did support Trump in 2024, but only because Trump went around promising that he will end the middle east wars and end the Ukraine war. Keep in mind that this was back when Biden and his unhinged neocon cabinet were escalating their Ukraine war to insane levels and giving heavy weapons to the Ukronatsies, like Abrams tanks and artillery, after having said in 2022 that they would not be giving these dangers weapons. And then started giving out guided missiles (HIMARS, JASMS) to Ukraine, and sending USAF personnel there to operate and program them (because they can only be operated and programmed by US personnel), and giving them targeting data, and striking targets inside Russia. The Russians weren’t stupid, they knew these were Ukrainian attacks in name only. In every other way it was an attack by United States directly on Russia. Seeing as how these were American missiles, operated and programmed by American crews, targeting data and guidance provided by USA, and even selection of targets inside Russia determine by US military. All of this insane escalation by the US neocons had the looks of starting World War Three. And keep in mind this was in 2024 when Democrats were in power.
So Trump coming along and saying this needs to stop, well of course any sane person who actually knew what was going on would’ve found that a better thing that the warmongering rhetoric coming from the Democrats.
(of course the truth is that both Dems and Repugs are warmongering neocons and there is no pro-peace group in the USA any longer)
To summarize: the Duran guys are good guys. They hate the empire, they love the countries that the USempire keeps attacking.
I think it’s probably accurate to say that they are creatures of modern “Greek” experience: Mercouris is a son of exiles from the Colonels’ rule in Greece. Christoforou is a son of Cypriot diplmat who has been heavily shaped by his knowlege of recent Cypriot history (the Turkish invasion and partition, continuing quasi colonial status under UK (via extraterritorial military bases), etc.) Both are quite cynical about international affairs, although Mercouris much less so, perhaps because he grew up in Britain and is a British subject, ie much more integrated Westerner, while Christoforou still lives in Cyprus?
That both of the Duran guys are, at their core, old (at least metaphorically) Greeks makes application of modern “postcultural” definition of liberal or conservative difficult, I should think.
The reasons why liberals, and a dismaying number of leftists, are pro-war, are pretty clear; the motivation behind right-wing antiwar rhetoric, less so. Some of it is simple, short-term opportunism. The corruption and incompetence part is important, along with the sheer brutality, because it leads to the second-most frightening place in the world, the one where people have stopped waving flags and chanting “U-S-A!”
I think that, for at least some on the right, Western liberal attitudes toward Russia have something to do with it. Recall that liberal Russophobia really started ramping up in 2012. Russia was homophobic, misogynistic, patriarchal–just culturally backwards through-and-through. How true this is, is irrelevant. Liberals believed it, and, while I might be going out on a limb, here, I think many right-wingers believed it, too, but thought it was good, and genuinely believed that it was the reason for Western aggression against Russia.
The US “Right,” tbf, always has had a strong “isolationist” tendencies, at least until the Cold War ramped up in earnest.
Left/Right seems pretty meaningless these days. But orienting on the French Revolution, you have a national revolution, the notion that the French people (the nation) should have a French government (nation-state) governed by the People/Nation. This is fundamentally particularist, involving a specific land, a specific government, and a specific people. This French national ideal is completely compatible with say slavery of non-French people, support for foreign despotism, colonialism, etc. At the same time, you have the universal rights of man, which were supposedly universal, inalienable rights. The above list of compatibles on the surface are incompatible with universal ideals (although through ends/means reasoning you can justify these practices as a temporary expedients prior to the inevitable withering away of tyranny and triumph of reason.) In the French Revolution, you had both trains of thought.
The Particularist vs. Universalist split is not Left/Right. Black nationalism is generally viewed as a leftist ideology, but it is particularist. The Neocon moment in W. Bush’s presidency was viewed as rightist, but they were spreading universal democracy and human rights through bombs and bayonets. Liberalism is universalist, but Anti-Colonial movements are generally particularist and leftist, so the antithesis may be anti-liberal, but is not necessarily politically right. Conservativism can be particularist (White nationalism for example) but conservatism, especially American conservatism, is generally universalist, whether its the Neocons or the libertarian flavor.
How can the Right be anti-war? Well, a nationalist right would be interested in pitting the interests of Americans First, and not interested in Empire unless it benefitted Americans. They wouldn’t care about fighting wars for a foreign country located 1/2 way around the world, and they wouldn’t care about acting as world policeman or crusading for Democracy and Human Rights. Likewise, a socialist left, in so much as it wanted to get elected, would presumably want to divert resources to improving their own constituents and away from the MIC–it might have universalist aspirations, but the practical realities of getting elected and the limitations on resources would force it to prioritize the health and education of its own people over say more bombs.
I’ll throw out something that I have been noodling on recently, and that is how the parties evolve over time. Like many thing with humans, things go in cycles, with the pendulum swinging back and forth from one extreme to the other.
Example: In the Civil War, Lincoln was a Republican. The Republicans were the champions of the middle class and the Democrats were for the elites. Then 80 years later in the Great Depression that had swung back and the Republicans were pro-elite and it was FDR and the democrats that championed the middle class. Now 80 years later the Dems are pro-elite and the Republicans (the ones Trump appealed to) are pro-middle class. Never mind that Trumps actions are hurting the middle class but I’m thinking more from how they campaigned. And the Dems have unequivocally abandoned the middle class. They lavishly support the rich and give just enough to the poor to buy their votes.
“Pape provides good analysis, but he is completely pro-Empire” Indeed but who in the media that we rely on is not?
Of course the caravan has moved on from these by now yesterday’s comments, but I’ve only just come across them and am very surprised nobody mentioned “b” at Moon of Alabama. His range is wide and can only be characterised as a ruthless critique of empire and its media, among the sharpest around. There can be a meticulous fury to his analyses, which feature a directness, bluntness even, that often gets so directly to the heart of an issue as to appear paradoxical on first consideration. In that profound or old-fashioned sense, they can be rather witty.
I have followed him for around a decade. In those early days (MoA has been going a lot longer under previous management) he stood out head and shoulders above allcomers and even now when the anti enpire discussion takes place in a crowded field, his is a powerful voice. He may have become slightly gentler since recent illness… but he may not have. Perhaps events have got to him. I think I remember him writing, uncharacteristically, near the start of the ‘final solution’ genocide that he was so appalled and bemused by the amount of evidence and news that he found it difficult to carry on, something like that. It would have been an aside, rather a heart on sleeve feature, but struck a new note.
Bernhard’s pieces are never diffuse or overlong, they never outstay their welcome. Only his English can occasionally be faulted in minor grammatical ways. The comments at MoA can be offputting: too many for starters (in the hundreds per entry), and many slightly too rabid for my milksop tastes, so it can be difficult to get through them, but there are quite a few interesting ones if you can find them. It’s perhaps a forum for venting among the like-minded (although there have been attacks of the trolls). Some commenters are quite serious. Karlof1 =Karl Sanchez has a Substack and does helpful work translating/transcribing from the Russian, whether or not through machine translation, I don’t know.
Listening to Krapivnik yesterday, he spoke of the dangers of immigrants impregnating your women and there goes the neighborhood! Whoa! Wasn’t ready for that. I generally appreciate his comments, but I think some problems are revealed here. Also, yes, he is against the US Empire, but I find myself wondering if he supports “multipolarity”, or maybe, some other Empire.
I like the SOT idea, it works as a dis on so many levels!
With regard to Pape,
· Washington wants AIPAC money.
· Jerusalem wants hegemony.
· Tehran has sovereignty.
It appears to me all of this is colored by a “managed decline of The Empire” engineered under fire and stress by frenemies Putin & Xi, agreeing your point of seeing no “good” nation states.
I sometimes think of Israel as a parasite that is intent on killing its host. So far the host enjoys helping out…
The US has a wonderful opportunity to be the ‘good guys’ by switching sides, joining the Iranians and bombing Israel.
Bombing our own F35s would be perfectly consistent with our historically warped foreign policy.
Milo Minderbinder did it. Why not?
I hate being Walter Sobchak but the Lebanon/Hezbollah corundum is so Vietnam: imposed migration, (more extensive) free fire zones, strategic hamlets, VC to be destroyed no question! Puppet government in Beirut (Saigon).
Neat trick if they get away with it.
Iran must demand occupied Palestine be freed and Lebanon left unforced.
I’d say it’s so Ukraine. Both Russia and Israel launch “unprovoked” invasions because they’re scared of their neighbor. But the US decides to take the opposite approach in one case helping the invader (Israel) and the other helping the defender (Ukraine). Despite the stupidity of the Vietnam war, we were actually helping the defender against and insurgenc (the VC up until Tet in 1968) and ultimately NVA troops, until we were forced to di di mau out of there. Today we simply “rent” our war machine to whomever pays the price. I guess we can say we already know what we are but will just haggle about the price. That is what Trump brings to the table.
I basically relate: Kiev to Saigon for the corruption. I relate Tel Aviv and Beirut to Saigon for their self interest and dependency on US, lacks morality.
US was dragged through the swamp in Vietnam, came out muddy. Israel is dragging US through its unique swamp.
I suspect I disagree with you about end state Vietnam. I evolved from a hawk to concluding U.S. sided with the unpopular, corrupt governments in a region in a civil war that reversed secession enforced in 1954, when U.S. stopped the plebiscite.
@KD at 7:43 am
“Pape provides good analysis, but he is completely pro-Empire”
Totally agree he is completely pro-empire. He says it himself as you outline. He does currently give courses to the US military after all.
Not so sure of his analysis however. After hearing him repeat the nonsense about Iran gunning down 40,000 demonstrators with no mention of the Mossad, CIA, etc., pretty open recruitment of foreign mercenaries I had doubts. Later I heard him say the Russians wanted to take Kiev but weren’t able to because the Ukrainians put up very strong resistance yet people with military knowledge said this was never the Russian intent as their invading force was much too small and their plan initially was to demonstrate seriousness to the Kiev regime. It worked since Kiev accepted neutrality and a reduced military but that agreement was thwarted by subsequent US/UK interference. After Pape’s Russia/Ukraine take I went off him.
Pape’s analysis can be summed up by governments that get themselves in a military bind will escalate rather than back down and admit defeat and this can last a long time.
The fact is Aurelien said this very succinctly at some point about the Iran war (and maybe Ukraine). A government would rather kick the can down the road, continue a losing war, and hope for the best however unlikely rather than own up to defeat and take the political hit that admission involves.
I no longer pay any attention to Pape. There are many others around more worth my time.
Reminds me of Mercouris saying on multiple occasions that that the US neocons have no reverse gear, their response is always to double down.
Trump must be getting very frustrated right now. He has twice now demanded that the Lebanon War be separated from the Iranian War so that the Israelis can have free reign but Iran won’t let him. In fact, Iran has said that if Israel bombards Beirut again, that they will retaliate against Israel which would drag in the US – though Trump should throw Israel to the wolves. He can’t sue Iran, he can’t sik his lawyers on them, bombing them only leads to bigger retaliation and they are not budging from their terms. He can lie his face off how negotiations are going great but after several weeks of this, nobody believes him anymore. Well, except for Mr. Market that is. He should be concentrating on the upcoming Midterms but Iran is the tar baby that will not let him but keeps on bogging him down. And now he claims that he is talking to Hezbollah (‘Who knew they talked?’) and the media is too terrified to call out his bs as he will only threaten them. This will not end well.
His job approval has fallen to an all-time low, with fewer than 5 months until the midterms by my math (early voting starts in October):
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5911411-senate-passes-reconciliation-immigration-bill/
Those are Joe Biden-type numbers. Actually, I’m not sure that Joe ever hit those depths of rock bottom. I remember during the Clinton Lewinsky scandal that Bubba’s personal approval ratings were awful, but his job approval numbers always stayed high, frustrating Newt Gingrich.
Trump has little room to maneuver, the magic phrase is ” Roy Cohn “.
Like every U.S. politician Trump is chained at the neck to AIPAC and the settler-apartheid lobby. He craves their cash while sharing their racism.
Reviewing Israeli and Jewish-adjacent sources to avoid any taint, 20-percent of U.S. billionaires and fully a third of the Forbes 400 identify as Jews. Their phony “anti-semitism” panic is clearly aimed at keeping anti-genocide Jews in line behind the settler-apartheid entity, especially the young who reject the magical thinking of haredi draft-dodgers and the blood-lust of the murderous Hilltop Youth.
How can a settler-apartheid minority ever experience “security” other than through never-ending occupation and extermination? The Kahanists will never agree to peace. The U.S. leadership has chained themselves to a war that can only end if the billionaire caste collapses.
My interwebs research suggests that the vast majority of rich people you list here is earning their keep by being firmly inserted into the governmental contracts and its spending largesse. This means, milking the taxpayer.
The flow of money goes like this; “lobbyists” spend a few $ million to buy the congresscritters. Those congresscritters then award $ billions worth of contracts to the lobbyists, and then the taxpayer pays for it all through taxation (in its broadest sense). When more revenue streams become required, “lobbyists” summon their “cousins” and otherwise “tribe members” to fill in the posts. This expands into everything – professional services, film industry, companies management, media etc. Banking of course.
Like any other good Ponzi scheme this will continue for as long as they are as there are taxpayers available to finance this metastasing scam.
At some point the critters’ main job will be to see that police physically extract valuables (and money) out of taxpayers because they will not be doing it voluntarily anymore. It is at that point when the things will turn unpleasant.
Luckily for the planet, this phenomenon is geographically limited. It is only present in countries where they have anti-semitism laws.
Years ago I worked for a boutique firm that handled legal issues for most of America’s chicken processors. The various processors tracked sales against other economic factors in their own internal metrics which, IIRC, indicated for every X dollar price increase in the price of ground beef translated in to Y increase in chicken sales at the consumer level. The processors also noted that this sales increase generally happened about six months prior to an official call of recession.
I would love to be a fly on the wall of some of their meetings now.
What I do know is I have an occasional practice of loudly commenting in a pleasant and open tone on a price increase or cost of something at the lines in Costco or Kroger / Publix; I’ve been doing it off and on for years. For several months now, I have been getting more and more cashiers and line goers commenting on how bad it is for them, and that is NOT something I recall hearing after about 2022 or especially 2009-2010. Older women describing second jobs while detailing a child that has lost a job and returned home, folks near tears about an unexpected car repair, or one who described only eating once a day now due to costs. A line from McCarthy’s Blood Meridian keeps coming back to haunt me, where Bathcat, an experience “Indian Fighter” on the SW frontier, describes the work of “hunting the aboriginals”, whom he had a begrudging respect for, as “right lively.”
One lesson my father taught me is that “unmet expectations”, whether realistic or not, is the cause of many a feeling of ill will if not outright anger toward the party that failed to meet the expectation. As this continues and likely gets worse and worse,I fear we are going to end up finding out what “right lively” means in the coming months…
The $4.99 Costco bbq chicken will take a price hit first (or they’ll stop offering it), then the fresh pizza, then the weiner.
I dunno – I suspect that the Hundred Dollar Store would close before it dumped the rotisserie chicken or the buck fifty dog and drink. Loss leaders gonna lead losses.
I was at a farmers market in the south of France yesterday and rotisserie chickens that resembled Costco versions were 20 Euros.
Skinned rabbits with their beady eyes still intact were cheaper at 12 Euros.
I was in a Costco line a few years ago.
A woman got the total from the checker and commented “that can’t be right” and proceeded to hold up the line until the total was verified as correct.
Sticker shock from a few years ago.
Small things are changing. A local family owned restaurant has changed its hours from “open 24 hours” to “6AM to 9PM” even as the tourist season here in Sonoma County, CA should be in full swing.
All done! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh this page and re-skim.
If Netanyahu and Hezbollah both say there is no ceasefire agreement, what is Trump talking about?
So if we can’t eat the beef can we process the maggots? 🤷♂️
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyPqsT5Jvds
Well Klaus Schwab did say to ‘Eat ze bugs’.
Hope the maggots eat Schwab. Just paid $850.75 for 150 gallons of diesel.
@Retired Carpenter at 9:54 am
Gotta say I’m really surprised by the price of diesel. Here in Gatineau, Quebec, regular gas is 1.65 CAD per litre today and diesel is 2.33. Diesel always used to be cheap. Not any more.
It’s that or maybe Soylent Green?
Is the screw worm related to the Zionist screw you parasite?
I put Pape in the “knowledgeable grifter” category. He suddenly emerges on the scene at the start of the war and in many ways offers a useful framework, but he’ll never get down to brass tacks when it comes to the underlying dynamics of Empire and the State of Israel.
Appreciate you, Yves and NC community, for a much more nuanced perspective.
That’s what makes him a good fit for Broken Points. Reformist rather than anitimperial or radical.
Breaking Points is infinitely more anti-Israel/ anti-Zionism then Pape. Just sayin’…
Yes. And the fact is that they’ve spent enormously more time on cataloging the Zionist entity’s disgusting actions than any other similar podcast.
Not true. There have been moments when Ryan and Krystal just by raising their eyebrows politely showed where they stood. In fact, I’m guessing that Krystal has indicated, behind the scenes, that she doesn’t want to be a part of the Pape appearances.
$4.01(k) update:
This is no time for true believers such as yours truly to abandon the Bitcoin dream, even if it’s more of a nightmare. Full speed ahead-damn the torpedoing price!
Pape’s best contribution to public discussion has been his empirical research.
For me, he first surfaced during the GWOT, in interviews about his historical study of suicide terrorism, Dying To Win.
His factual study completely debunked the basis for the terror war by showing the common political causes of suicide terrorism, findings contrary to what counterterror scam artists push. He showed there was little religious connection with suicide terrorism, found suicide terrorists were usually intelligent and well socially integrated (and would therefore be unlikely to be “profiled” and prevented), and concluded “the taproot is American military policy.” He was useful then.
When these new people pop up and start commenting as experts on Breaking Points, I’m pretty suspicious.
Saager & Krystal are private school political analysts which means that unless they are exposed directly to the suffering of the working class, it’s gonna take them a long time to figure out wtf is going on and how to fix America. They are surrounded by phoney smiling vampires offering expertise.
Following Professor Marandi’s recommendation, I read Going to Tehran and Pape is quoted in their by the authors very early in the book. The book came out ~15 years ago so I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s new on the scene.
FWIW, Marandi is also quoted in there.
We may all have to become involuntary vegetarians. Summer of Rage!
“The American dream is a crock. Stop wanting everything. Everyone should wear jeans and have three T-shirts, eat rice and beans.”
– Bill Hicks
There is a solution. The US could drop the tariffs on beef imports and bring in beef from Oz, Brazil, India, etc. but I doubt that Trump will drop them. He would first have to admit that they were a mistake. When I think about it, I remember a story on NC here about how DOGE was cutting back the screwworm fly program some time ago. Musk has got a lot to answer for but will any in the media call him out on it? I doubt it.
Au Contraire! He will have a record IPO and add Zero’s to his unblemished record as,
The Worlds Greatest Zero!
“The US could drop the tariffs on beef imports and bring in beef from Oz, Brazil, India, etc. but I doubt that Trump will drop them.”
Wait a minute: Trump already did something like that by quadrupling the quota of low-tariff beef that could be imported from Argentina — and farmers in the USA grumbled audibly.
He would have only done that to keep his good buddy Milei happy so that Argentina will keep on giving the US things.
Trump, the GREATEST PRESIDENT, exhibited STUPENDOUS foresight in allowing increased imports of nutritious Argentinian beef, even before the screwworm arrived. Which by the way is the FAULT of MEXICANS and other central American nations. The USA gave them BILLIONS, and the best technology in the world to fight the screwworm, and they blew it. The deal with Trump’s friend Javier Milei, the best Argentinian president ever, will make a MASSIVE contribution to AFFORDABILITY, ensuring food prices remain at the lowest level IN DECADES, while the ATROCIOUS policies of those dumb Democrats not only caused inflation, but also ruined US farmers. Trump took the necessary measures well before the crisis hit, and this is why everything will be all right contrarily to what those ENVIOUS left-wing FAILURES claim. Let us keep our attention to this matter!
I can no longer tell if what you wrote is satire or something that Trump actually wrote.
If Trump had an ounce of sense, he’d drop tariffs and slap an export ban on crude, just in time to save the Republican party from the jaws of midterm death.
But, he won’t, either because he’s too stubborn, blackmailed by globalists with Epstein goodies, or like the honey badger he just don’t care.
Surely you mean “Summer of R(ough)age…
So much for all those fast food places trying to cut costs.
I do hope that we do not have to make resort to the “R(ough)age Trade.” “Where’s the beef,” takes on a whole new meaning in that situation.
“Exclusive: Video reveals damage from fire on US aircraft carrier after sources say fire control system failed | CNN Politics”
How could the fire suppression gear not work. It’s a brand new carrier. It looks like the USS Gerald R. Ford will be out of action for a very long time, not only to repair the massive amount of damage caused by that fire but to try to get all the gear working again ranging from the toilets through to the fire suppression system. Don’t expect the builders of that boat to be on the hook for much of that cost as it will be lumbered on taxpayers. I wonder how well the other Ford-class carriers will work out.
Wouldn’t the fire suppression system have to have worked the first time in order to get it working “again?” ;-)
But Rev’s post is a textbook example (and I’m not mocking him – I always enjoy his comments and find his POV quite respectable) of the idea, “Tell me you never served in the American military without actually saying that you didn’t serve in the American military.”
The answer to the “how didn’t it work…?” question is answered by one of those Murphy’s Laws of War: “Remember – your weapon was built by the lowest bidder.” Military gear is generally built by people who have no plans to use it, to specs issued by people who have no serious idea of how its supposed to do what it’s supposed to do in a way that’s efficient and effective. But it’s not THEIR money or lives, so they don’t give a rip.
The list of military boondoggles that only served to enrich non-mil parties, created because somebody had a Brilliant Idea, ranges from the Great Handgun Wars, up through the Sgt. York DIVAD system, on through the F35 runway ornament, passing by Star Wars/Golden Dome, and will culminate in the Trump Battleship….
More a NASA problem, I think. Try ‘your weapon was built by the highest briber’
The two concepts are not mutually exclusive. See also “cost overruns.” ;-)
So the fire suppression gear did not work. This coming after the catapult, arresting cables, lifts, and toilets not working properly. It is a good thing the ship did get embroiled in a truly “hot” action, otherwise we might have learned that the radars, or the AA cannons, or the flooding containment system did not work under stress either.
I come back to my pet peeve:
1) the construction of the Nimitz-class carriers started in 1968 (hence the design predates that by years);
2) the construction of the Ford-class carriers really started in 2007 (officially in 2005).
There are about 40 years between both programmes, which means most, if not all, experienced engineers, naval architects, qualified workers, etc, were no longer present to design and build the new range of vessels and their subsystems (dead, senile, or at best pensioned). Which means the necessary know-how was also gone (not the knowledge: books, reports, old blueprints were still available). Which means that the people in charge were bound to seriously muck something up.
Such complex programmes should be undertaken on a 20-25 years rhythm — not at 40 years intervals — to preserve skills, know-how, and institutional knowledge. Other failed defence systems in the USA, the UK, Germany, and elsewhere show what happens when this rule is not followed.
My (analytical) exposure to Pentagon contracts has mostly been on the air and ground (and a little space) side, not the Navy, but I suspectificate that they are suffering from the same couple of issues with respect to new equipment.
The first continues to flabbergast me to no end, and it’s that as of the 2010s someone had the brilliant idea of carrying out the development, testing and serial production phases of the development cycle concurrently. This is how you end up shoveling out serial (not prototype) F-35s with software that’s only half-finished (so half the aircraft functions do not, err, function), and which are also your de-facto test beds that have to go back to get upgraded with new hardware and software a year or two despite technically being approved for active service.
I can completely see how this works in the context of a carrier – you’re building the thing and rushing it into service while still trying to figure out how to make, say, the catapults, actually work, and figure you’ll “test” once on active duty, then back to the shipyard, and round and round the development cycle goes…
…and the private sector isn’t immune. At least, on the IT side, where one hears story after story of how, in the name of “agility” – “agile development” is a legitimate thing, but this is not it – you do all cycle phases simultaneously and push out half-finished dreck with portions that need to be rewritten from scratch, just so that the business side could book the revenues on time. “You can patch it later” is the refrain. Between this and the “vibe coding” nonsense, I am growing genuinely fearful of where our structural software (banks, etc.) will end up 10 years from now.
And then there is the second thing, which I saw at Boeing first (but they may not have invented it) – testing engineered hardware via computer simulations of said, not “actual” hardware testing. This is how Boeing, having pushed out ~100 787s, suddenly figured out that the wings on physical aircraft couldn’t withstand the stresses that the computer model said it should, and had to scramble for a hardware fix (more bolts and braces, basically). But it’s ever so cheaper to do things via computer simulations than actual testing, so lesson definitely not learned in aerospace. Again, would not be surprised if the Navy didn’t actually test (physically) the fire suppression system, but rather had the contractor run it through a program and produce a 20-page report saying a-ok.
Parenthetically, it drives me up a wall every time I hear someone say “we don’t need nuclear testing, we’ve got sophisticated computer simulations”. I am not an avid advocate of nuclear testing per se, but as someone who claims to know a thing or two about computers and programming, there is no way whatever it is that you are running is ever going to fully encompass the full range of physical outcomes on a complex engineered device that is, oh by the way, subject to decades of radioactive decay. In other words, whatever you think the yield on that 40-year old bomb is going to be because the computer told you so, it’s a 50-50 whether that’s the actual physical result you’re going to get. But that’s my personal pet peeve…
All a long way of saying. I am not in the slightest surprised that the fire suppression system on this brand-spanking-new-top-tier-uber-technological carrier didn’t work as advertised. Or at all. And I’m sure that’s only the tip of that particular iceberg.
An AI did the simulations that were not doable in Manhattan project in 1945, the bomb still worked.
You are right about concurrency, I might add that it hurts manufacturing quality and output. Concurrency from my perspective tried to get stuff to the field faster, unfortunately and I heard it a number of times the standard was better than they have now. The problem is define better, which likely misses real needs.
Testing in U.S. systems acquisition is shoddy. I know of a study why the early WW II Mk 14 torpedo had at least 50% misfires in combat.
The navy shot one torpedo in test it detonated, a second shot failed. The test reviewed decided the dud was not relevant. That philosophy exists today.
Simulations are not tests no matter how brilliant they claim Claude can get.
They also sell optimization which only works if you get the input specs!
Similar to weapons, the system is too broad to fully manage, then throw in careers and jobs in districts.
Amazing USS Ford did as well as it did.
The navy shot one torpedo in test it detonated, a second shot failed. The test reviewed decided the dud was not relevant. That philosophy exists today.
Not just testing, also in actual production.
Bit of anecdata: Training at a hand grenade range in Korea. Grenades are relatively simple things, been around for centuries. Nevertheless the day went like this:
Throw grenade. BOOM.
Throw grenade. No BOOM.
Call engineers to come out and safely blow up the unBOOMed grenade.
Throw grenade. BOOM.
Throw grenade. No BOOM.
Call engineers….
After 5 or 6 cycles the engineers just stayed on the range to handle the no BOOM grenades.
After another few cycles we just piled all the grenades up on the range and let the engineers BOOM the whole mess all at once.
These were all reasonably new manufacture. I can only imagine what the ones stored in the vehicle loadouts for years* of heat and cold would be like.
*because rotating in fresh stocks of ammo and BOOMs was too much paperwork. Easier just to leave the stuff in place.
Not so much an iceberg as a reef in the making.
Your point is good and valid, but I don’t think you can even go 25 years between projects of a certain type and expect to keep the workforce and the capability to do such projects viable. In my experience, the minute the money stops coming in, the workforce starts to scatter, labs shut down, researchers move into other fields, and suppliers find new customers in different areas. If and when the money starts coming in again, you’re pretty much in a start-from-scratch situation. And even if that were not true, you don’t want the new project to pick up where the state of the art was 25 years ago.
Keeping national capabilities current and operational over the long term is a really difficult problem. Government agencies like NASA and climate research can help, but they are generally pretty small and the transfer to the commercial sector it’s not always what you would want. As we have seen, military contractors don’t usually fill this role very well because they are too busy grifting on the current military budget rather than trying to ensure the capabilities of the nation.
I don’t really have a great solution here, but it would be nice to live in a country that valued experienced workforces and did what they could keep them working and training the next generation rather than shuffling them off onto the unemployment line like Musk has been doing.
Somebody more knowledgeable about the history of military hardware development could chime in, but I got the impression that 20-25 years as the rhythm for systems was accompanied by working on intermediate prototypes — platforms to test new components, technologies, or configurations — which served as preparatory work for the main deliverable. In essence, the design bureaus, workshops, and contractors were kept busy at a reduced flame for new developments, while manufacturing plants were kept busy at a high flame building, refurbishing, or upgrading previous models.
Then came the 1990s, and France, the UK, Germany, etc, started privatizing their arsenals, weapon design bureaus, and national arms manufactures — and the phenomenon you describe accelerated suddenly.
Production can’t even endure a one year gap. During Covid we experienced a shortage of windshields for corporate jets. One of our buyers called and talked with the company. He found out that when production was restarted after the lock down ended, the laid off workers didn’t come back. The new work force was only producing one in three windshields that would pass quality control. It was about two years before production was back to normal.
For a brief moment I seriously thought that perhaps the fire suppression system itself caught fire.
That would not be a surprise in the slightest…
I mean, if backfires work for forest fires, why not apply the same idea to military fire suppression?
Like Daffy Duck’s disintegrating pistol?
Don’t forget the new M7 Rifle and its 6.8mm “.277 Fury” ammunition.
It’s like the M14 fiasco, only worse.
US Ordnance spent from 1944 to 1959 improving the M1 Garand and came up with the M14 which was produced from 1959 to 1964.
How bad was it?
When Afghanistan came up and it was decided that each squad should have a designated Marksman with a rifle able to reach out and touch someone at 600 yards there were plenty of M14’s left in stock.
There still are.
They were not able to give them away.
The M14, chambered in the .270 caliber the Brits were pioneering, could actually have been a reasonable contender for “good,” though likely not “great.” But noooooo…..gotta have rifle performance exceeding what most gunbunnies are capable of, with all the weight and aggravation that brings with it.
So then, after, what ~60 years (longest serving rifle in US history) they’re finally going back to essentially the same thing that they could have had in the early 50s.
We could also talk about the M60GPMG, a weapon that can be reassembled in at least four different ways, only one of which works, and which requires a wire to keep parts from flying off.
And don’t get me started on the TOW missile system,* the M901 ITV, and my record setting D grade in military science at Penn State… ;-)
*Or the Dragon, which the Swiss were considering until they realized it was essentially a suicide weapon.
That was the EM2 bullpup that came with an optical sights, chambered in an intermediate 7MM/ .270 Caliber.
US Ordnance said “No, we want a shorter .30 caliber that duplicates 30-06 ballistics”, something appropriate for the late 19th Century.
So that’s what NATO got.
Yup. Hard pass on the bullpup design,* but Ghu forbid that we figure out the same thing that the Germans and then the Soviets did, that the future was going to be in a nice intermediate caliber of some sort.
The .308/7.62N is not bad, per se … it’s just not really suitable for general issue smallarms.
Of course, due to that US insistence on a Standard NATO Rifle Cartridge. the Brits then ended up with the FAL, which was replaced by the Airfix Gun long after the US had said that “maybe .308 is a bit too much and that nice little Air Force AR carbine is just the ticket….”
*might have a different take if I’d trained on the platform, but I’m too old and set in my ways to learn new boomstick tricks.
the M14 was chambered for 308 ammunition
Ohhhh … now I am triggered lmmao …
It really does not matter what rifle the US military comes out with as its maintenance and accuracy is dependent on X operator, especially the psychological factor of putting sights on target. So many variables, trajectory, stopping power, weight of rounds [humping], terrain to be used in, desert vs tree/brush etc. Yet for all the MIC shareholder machinations it really comes down to instructing, not just on a firing range but, being physically/mentally rooted, and yet being able to flip the switch[tm] and make every round count – no spray and pray. Real shooters will always be hens teeth, no different to the ratio of soldiers that make it through elite combat training. Although the old commie 7.62 with a steel pin on the inside of copper cased lead round was so mean – pierce mm of metal/steel or play pin ball inside ones body cavity.
Then you have the well of people you draw from … what sort of society they grew up in thingy. Westren sorts be it middle class looking for College funds et al or low socioeconomic sorts a way out which have never used a rifle in their lives save in a game or target practice e.g. not hunting. Never fired with elevated heart rate or being able to control heart rate in physically/emotionally challenging situations. Especially as now drones are taking over that job and at a huge increase in range. Heck even snipers are having a hard time a night with thermal imaging from drones.
Lastly the Dragon chortle …. I was #2 in my division only due to one tank silhouette identification in a comp. Anywhoo … yeah … big puff of smoke saying hi to the enemy after launch – hi I am here, range to target is a big deal due to time in tracking before hit, optics necessitate full almost out of body focus. Oh and the one big time on the DMZ live fire where I informed my CO that it had a pink indicator on the side of the tube, only too be told use it, due to a few stars being there and dog and pony shows. It miss fired at night with mortars doing illum, 30s, pull trigger again, hang fire, re-seat optical tracker, mortars had to do another volley, this was supposed to be highlight of the live fire [victory], pull trigger again, hang fire, maybe 20s later I took my eye just a bit off the tracker and boom it went off. So it basically punched me in the eye socket … hard…. now I am tracking after a being smacked hard in my eye. Somehow I hit it and the next thing I know is my CO from my old RGR battalion ran over and rewarded me with a huge attaboy that knocked my helmet clean off he was so cuffed.
Seriously NC readers … its all “Catch 22 level stuff” due ideology alone, pro tip don’t try to rationalize it… you will go made if you try …
“Your weapon was built by the lowest bidder” and tested under budget, a test you had no money to finish is a pass.
Yes the engineers and builders are cost plus, but the system knows it passes problems to the soldiers and sailors.
Fire suppression failure could have been a damaged effect, which should have been designed out.
In WW II, Japan lost a carrier bc bomb damage cut electrical power to critical battle damage mitigation system.
Nothing much new in Murphy’s Law…
Nothing much new in Murphy’s Law…
Only the samples and examples change. I’m sure that there were soldiers complaining about dysfunctional flint attached to their stone axes….
Yup!
Cannon balls from Picatinny in the revolution….
They were also “knew for certain” that the Tribe Behind the Ridge had much better axes, bigger rations and smarter elders…
Oh heck yeah!* The Other Guy always has Kewler Stuff!!!
To be fair, sometimes the other guy does. And sometimes we’re the other guy.
*not to mention cuter women, which is why hi ho, hi ho, it’s off to war we go…
Your weapon was built by the sole source whose turn it was.
Unless litigated out of the chain. See “US Army Handgun Great Kerfuffel And Clambake To Select A New Handgun” back in the day… All to select something that kills fewer people in combat than trenchfoot.
By the time it is repaired, it will be even my a white elephant, large target than it and it sisters are today.
I’d suggest this is one of the consequences of the classical economics’ observation called the “law of declining profits.” In a completely free market with low barriers to entry, profits decline as firms compete.
Naturally, capitalists want to do anything they can to prevent this. So … monopolies, oligopolies, regulatory barriers to entry, purchasing competitors, dumping (selling below production costs) are all part of the armaments in the war of markets.
Military equipment gets special mention because it’s unproductive, really, and typically purchased with cost plus contracts. The more expensive the weapon is, the more profitable. (See William Proxmire’s Report from Wasteland for an excruciating list of pre-1970 ridiculous military hardware purchases.
I’m a little ambivalent about this because so much military research has profited the civilian sectors of the economy. From ironwork in the Civil War to food preservation, to internet and touchscreens (see Malcolm Harris’ Palo Alto: A History of California, Capitalism, and the World for a look at Silicon Valley’s origins in military research).
This ambiguity is very old. The Canaanite god of musical instruments (Kothar wa Hassis…or “clever and crafty”) was also the god of weapons.
My guess is the fire suppression system DID work, WAS tested intially and regularly, but was remotely and electronically controlled and perhaps they didn’t anticipate the electrical wiring remotely controlling the localized suppression would be fried or perhaps the heat was such ferocity that the wiring insulation failed.
There’s plenty of cynicism (realism?) in these comments, but there HAS been a real effort to retain institutional knowledge in complex weapon systems like carriers. Not having the time to look up the specifics, decades passed between completion of the Nimitz and the final carrier in that class, which would have included any number of refinements and upgrades. All of which was done to retain such knowledge.
Think of it like going from the Nimitz 1.0 to 1.13 (or however many ships were in that class). Followed by a relatively short period before the Ford Class, with ALL the wrinkles than have to be ironed out of a system that is by nature going to be magnitudes more complex due to the enthusiasm of engineers and greed of the Usual Suspects.
This goes for Submarines as well, where at least some minimal level of contstruction is designed into the program for precisely this reason.
Also note the F15, originally fielded something like 50 years ago, has kept its production line going with innumerable new blocks, often for foreign buyers. In the last few years they produced a “new” version for the USAF to pick up the slack from the unaffordable F22, based on the most recent version built to the specs of the KSA (or maybe it was Qatar. Whatever).
On a not unrelated subject, a recent article in The Atlantic, bylined by Simon Schuster (what a name), he interview the CEO of Reinmetal, who totally pooh-poohed the new paradigm drones have introduced into warfare via Ukraine, essentially because there was no money in it (!!!!). When refined as the Ukes are now doing, they will be capable of making all the above noted systems largely obsolete, and can evolve far faster than these big profitable systems… Especially key for a countries pursuing a porcupine defensive strategy; that seems to be the upshot recent developments in war tech.
What Pape says and what Magnier says are not incompatible, provided you understand they are talking about different things.
Hezbollah is “in” the government in Lebanon, because all Lebanese governments require a parliamentary majority which can only be obtained with the help of Shia parties, and because all governments have to have Shia Ministers. Since Hezbollah decided to grow a political wing in 2008, it has been popular enough among Shia voters, largely because of its Iranian-funded social services, that it has been able to claim government posts. It has generally been obstructive, favouring, for obvious reasons, a weak state and unstable political system, which increases its own power and influence.
But Hezbollah is not “of” the government, in the sense that it doesn’t feel bound by government decisions. It is essentially, of course, a militia, and acts as it sees fit, making its own law. The exact nature of its links to Iran–which provides its funding–is disputed even among specialists with lots of good inside contacts. Those I have spoken to say “it depends,” but in the last analysis it does as instructed by Tehran, and would not act against a direct order from that quarter. It is in the government now, after several years when it managed to obstruct the formation of a government at all, and the election of a President, essentially because it was so badly beaten up by Israel in 2024, and its position was weak enough that, with the agreement of Tehran, it allowed the political process to start and a government to be formed and President elected.
In this situation, Hezbollah is acting directly with Iran, and there are reliable reports of IRGC officers on the ground, which probably explains why they have been more successful. The Iranians have made it clear that for them “Lebanon” means Hezbollah, and for its part, the party wants nothing less than peace with Israel because that would remove its entire raison d’être, and probably lead to its disintegration. Thus, what Tehran is asking for is a ceasefire, not a peace-treaty, since the best outcome, seen from there, is an end to large-scale fighting but a continuation of tension and small-scale hostilities, and therefore a continued role for and influence of Hezbollah.
None of this is particularly recondite or controversial, and just because somebody from Washington says something like it, doesn’t mean it’s not true. There’s a wealth of open-source analysis by reputable scholars if anyone is interested.
Would you be open to sharing your list of reputable scholars and their analysis? After all the conflicting information about Hezbollah, I think I would like to do some further reading to get a better idea of who’s who and what’s going on in Lebanon
Nicholas Blandford and Aurélie Daher have written good books on the origins of Hezbollah, and I think they both produce shorter articles as well. Otherwise, there’s Elia Ayoub, a secular leftist, Yezid Sayegh, a Palestinian of Christian origin, Michael Young, who has a Substack called “Beirut Calling,” Mohanad Hage Ali, and the Swahili Newsletter has some useful links. The local press, mostly in French and Arabic but you can get translations, is often good on specific issues but needs to be treated with caution. But of course to understand Hezbollah you need to understand Lebanese politics, which means understanding the Civil War and the Palestinian issue, which means the Ottoman inheritance … it’s easy to get totally lost.
Thank you so much!
Hezbollah is “in” the government only to the extent it participates in unity governments has some cabinet portfolios. However, it is NOT in the government when it comes to foreign policy and national security. Other religious communities more amenable to Zionist and Western interests control those portfolios.
Longer game than surviving!
For enduring heavy sanctions since 1979, and losing Syria infil route in 2024 Iran is doing amazing with Hizbolah and Houthi, to say nothing of drones and MRBM.
You give too much respect for the rump government in Beirut which is proving an Israel tool.
Hizbolah and Iran are acting to free Quds and its inhabitants. In spite of Wahabbi treason and Sunni defection.
Put VC for Hizbolah and Hanoi for Tehran. They have yet to run a Tet offensive.
‘MintPress News
@MintPressNews
🚨BREAKING: Hezbollah Inflict An Israeli Soldier Massacre & Hit A Base Across The Border
A mass casualty event was reported following a “complex ambush” carried out against Israeli forces operating north of the Litani River in south Lebanon. A base has also been struck by an FPV drone attack. Casualties are reportedly being evacuated to Haifa.’
Sooo, maybe having a base north of the Litani river was not such a bright idea after all. That would have put them in Hezbollah’s front yard.
I don’t think I am qualified to say anything about this but here is the agreement with the IAEA.
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/infcirc214a1.pdf
This doesn’t even require IAEA to be a malicious actor to be true. They contracted Palantir for the supporting software for inspection. Palantir is a US based company. What if the US government demanded that Palantir give up confidential customer data relating to Iran? Under FISA they can do that and require the target company to keep silent about it.
Yes, this is just speculation, but given that Palantir and the US government are practically joined at the hip on national security matters, and legal mechanisms already exist for this to happen out of sight of the public, it would be foolish of Iran to assume that it hasn’t already.
You would think article 15 would preclude the use of Palantir. But what do I know? 🤷
German far-right AfD party official meets with Putin adviser, Gazprom boss, calls for reopening of Nord Stream gas pipeline
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-far-right-afd-party-official-meets-with-putin-adviser-gazprom-boss-2026-06-04/
Iran says it fired warning missiles, drones at US warships in Gulf of Oman
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-898491
I am having trouble getting comments to load. I will try again this afternoon.
Wowzers
They Shut the Golden Gate Bridge for 4 Hours. Now They Face Up to 15 Years in Prison. (NY Times)
I finally read The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by Stuntz that someone recommended here probably 5 or more years ago. I hadn’t realized that our system of criminal justice is basically just plea bargains. It’s hard to actually get a jury trial and have much chance of an acquittal. The laws are written such that you’re pretty much dead to rights. Judges have mandatory sentencing and can’t moderate. The accused are screwed.
Who knew Brooke was going to run for president?
I did volunteer work in the Sonoma County jails for more than a decade and a half, there’s a reason it’s called the “Criminal” Justice system.
The local Grand Jury looked at the Jails a year or so ago and found that half the jail population had been diagnosed with a serious mental health issue.
It’s where we put the mentally ill and the poor while making a buck with the new and improved slavery, AKA the “Prison Industrial Complex”.
Because Markets…
Let’s also not get started on the general dearth of public defenders in most states.
Exclusive: Iran supreme leader’s adviser says talks deadlocked over $24 billion and warns of wider war (CNN)
Anybody using the word „humiliated“ in their „analyses“ of the wars should wear a dunces cap.
Hamas was „humiliating“ IDF a lot. Now Hezbollah is „humiliating“ IDF. If I understand it correctly IDF killed off loads of Palestinians in Palestine, which now lies in rubbles. IDF is killing thousands of Lebanese, bombing cities and villages to rubbles with thousands of injured and displaced. This is military victory: when you kill a lot of people. Those who care about a drone on a Zionist tank injuring a few injuries should go study military maths.
Don‘t get me wrong. I hate the Zionists as much as any decent person does and wish nothing but the Untergang for them but getting the wrong information about how much the local militias achieve and its strategic outcome really pisses me off. If Hamas and/or Hezbollah would have achieved a total stop from Israel with their genocidal policies that would have been something to write back home to mum about but anything less is just losers war-porn.
Sorry, military victory is when you impose your will on the opposing force. It has nothing to do with the body count. Killing a lot of people is a collective punishment a la Tamerlane, and most military frown upon it, as it is rather barbaric and rarely nowadays achieves it’s purpose.
Israeli occupation army, on the other hand, is a genocidal machine for the simple purpose of brainwashing Israeli citizens and killing and maiming as many others as possible. Often for fun.
Sorry, military victory is when you impose your will on the opposing force.
Very nice one sentence summary!!!!
Whether in a single battle or the overall war. The side that gets its way is (eventually) the “winner.”
During the Vietnam war, McNamara thought that if the kill count of North Vietnamese got higher than their birth rate, that they would run out of soldiers and the US would win the war. The North Vietnamese fought anyway and went on to win.
Until ‘negotiations’ produce something like a lasting peace, my perspective results in the following analysis. If Iran’s primary strategic objective is to obtain regional security, it must curtail Israel’s ambitions. To do that it must collapse the Trump Administration. If that is possible remains to be seen. Operationally, Iran is operating on three theaters: 1) the Arabian Pennisula, 2) Israel, & 3) Domestic support for Trump in the US. It is interesting to apply, Robert Pape’s ideas in Bombing to Win” to Israel’s military actions. How will bombing ‘conquer’ Lebanon or Gaza or even Iran, if israel doesn’t defeat ‘ground forces’ besetting it. Note: Israel’s actions can only be interpreted as being ones to effect a genocide rather than any pure m ilitary goal. Is it possible to make an analogy, Hezbollah is to Netanyahu, as Grant was to Lee.? The latters army was fixed at Richmond, while Sherman destroyed supply lines and kept reinforc ements at bay in the S.E. part of the ‘Confederacy’. I.E. Iran has freedom of action in the Gulf , while the US/Israel forces are prevented from uniting. As far as Trump is concerned, he lacked the cognitive ability to understand the impact of constricting the Straits of Hormuz, so how is it possible that he can understand ihe impact of driving over an impending energy cliff. If all Iran does is to ‘wait it out’, how does Trump escape the trap he has set for himself? IMO, talk…much ado about nothing.
Blackstone caps withdrawals from flagship private credit fund.
Imagine if Charles Ponzi limiting distributions from his Private Credit Fund to 5% per year. Imagine further if he were allowed to establish the valuation of his fund without the benefit of neutral outside accountants. Finally, imagine him having all the money in the world. It’s a great country.
The difference being that Ponzi was actually making money on the difference between international postage rates, never mind the rest of the scheme.
The Meriwether Farms tweet ending “thank you for your attention on this matter” was *chef’s kiss*
But seriously, we had the screwworm contained in Panama and messed it up, we are no longer a serious country.
re: Iran already with nuke?
I don´t know if I am the only one who heard this rumour – yesterday Martyanov possibly with Nima (I am not sure which show any more) stated that allegedly Iranian Prez was talkin´ to the Prez of Pakistan via an “unsecured” line and their statements which were “picked up” suggested that Iran already has a nuke or more.
Martyanov had no opinion of his own on this. Neither did Nima.
Probably this is a lie by some parties. But I wanted to mention it.
Either you speak via a secure line or you don´t. Either you want the world to know or you don´t, knowing that eventually there might not be such a thing like a truly secure line.
By any measure, the idea of nuclear ambiguity starts the very moment when the world is of the opinion you could have nukes if only you wanted to acquire.
USA media not even covering kinetics anymore. It’s just over apparently.
It’s amazing that we’re gonna hit bottom. But COVID showed the elite lack any sense of civic duty or ruling competence. Never any consequences. Well there’s gonna be here. People aren’t gonna like what’s coming. Such breath taking stupidity.
https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2063010710859157592?s=46
Waiting for the other Iranian shoe to drop.
Many of the Xitter posters I rely on for situation monitoring are falling down on the job this weekend. Armchair Warlord took the weekend off, Ripplebrain hasn’t posted for weeks, and Big Serge hasn’t posted for days. The rogue investor guys are all off celebrating their big day for shorts.
The Knicks are on a mission from God. Full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it’s dark and they’re wearing sunglasses.
Hit it.
The above cited Bloomberg piece on Iran’s refusal of IAEA inspections of it’s enriched uranium described the uranium as “near bomb grade”… When reports shift from specifics to vague, from, say “60% enriched” to “near bomb grade” the result is that speculations begin to replace facts… The vague “near bomb grade” allows for Iran’s stockpile to be (refined) “enough to create about a dozen warheads.”
And why end there ? It’s only a small leap for speculative facts about Iran already possessing nukes to start appearing in the propaganda…
…. BEWARE OF VAGUENESS…