[Today’s Iran war update fired before finished. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
Iran just threw a spanner in Trump’s plans to keep Mr. Market stupefied with happy utterances about negotiations that were going nowhere, a ruse Trump might have been able to keep going until July when the US hits its energy cliff and gas and diesel prices shoot up. It’s hard for Trump to appease investors with “Talks going well!” when no talks are happening. Oil prices jumped on the Iran statement.
Many Zionist opponents had been disappointed by an apparent Iran sellout of Hezbollah, which had supported Iran during the war by mounting attacks on Israel early on, by taking no action when Israel kept flagrantly violating the ceasefire with its attacks on Southern Lebanon. One cannot know what complex calculations Iran has engaged in before it makes a move. Annoyance with Trump making clear the negotiations are an empty exercise via him just having toughened US demands looks to have been one factor. Another was the US intensifying its ceasefire violations in the Strait of Hormuz area via more frequent strikes.
But I will hazard a third idea: Iran is only now ready to engage Israel, as in even destroy it if Israel does not back down.
Recall that Iran had been attacked by surprise when the war started. Even though a considerable majority of its missiles, launchers, and deeply bunkered sites survived, it still suffered some depletion. In addition, it appears that the entrances of at least some missile sites were blocked by bombing rubble. These sites likely have multiple entrances but these actions could have impeded operation. Iran has reportedly been clearing out the debris.
Iran has also claimed to have greatly ramped up its pace of drone and missile production, and is believed to be getting equipment from Russia and China.
Iran has had even more time to study US and Israel operations and what they could do with the assets available to them.
At the margin, Iran also may want to force Trump to a crisis sooner rather than later for the sake of the world economy (Russia and China do care about that, after all).
On current trajectories, as we explained yesterday, Trump could conceivably stick to his current course until at least paper oil prices started to register the coming energy cliff, and/or important US companies made loud and panicked noises about their diesel supplies, therefore also spooking their vendors and the great unwashed public. Even so, Trump being Trump, he would try to stare that down by repeating his blather about the sacrifice being worth it and insisting oil prices would tank once Iran capitulated.
On top of that, the world economy is simply not going to recover from fight for control over the Strait of Hormuz any time soon. The mainstream press keeps happily talking past a critical point: vessel operators and crews are extremely leery of going anywhere near the Gulf. To the extent the media take notice, they depict the impediment as insurance, which is bogus. Insurance has been available for the duration of the war ex the very first week. It is safety risk. And with no one trusting the US to stick to a deal, and Iran not to be trigger-happy in the face of provocations, who can blame them?
We’ll turn to detail soon, but the next-high level point is that Trump allegedly blew up at Netanyahu and Netanyahu offered a fake concession. Not only did Trump look like a moron for repeating it but Israel immediately defied Trump by resuming strikes near the Lebanon village of Tyre. This affair likely further strengthened Netanyahu position in Israel by demonstrating that he can lead the US by the nose.
Bloomberg did not cover itself with glory in how it covered the news of the Iranian suspension of talk when it broke:
The Financial Times was more direct:
Admittedly, the English language version of the Tasnim story has “messages” in its headline, perhaps intended to make clear that it was a stretch to depict the communications as negotiations. From the story Iran to Halt Message Exchanges with US in Protest at Israeli Crimes:
Information obtained by Tasnim indicates that, in light of the continuation of the Zionist regime’s crimes in Lebanon, and considering that an end to the aggression on Lebanon was among the preconditions of the ceasefire, and that this ceasefire has now been violated on all fronts, including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team will halt “talks and the exchange of texts through a mediator.”
The immediate cessation of the aggressive and savage operations of the Zionist regime’s army in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the necessity of the regime’s complete withdrawal from occupied areas in Lebanon, have been emphasized by Iranian officials and negotiators. Until Iran’s and the Resistance’s demand on this matter is fulfilled, there will be no talks.
In addition, the Resistance Front and Iran have placed on their agenda the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the activation of other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with the aim of punishing the Zionists and their supporters.
Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi soon underscored that ceasefire means ceasefire:
For immediate attention:
The ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
Its violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts.
The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) June 1, 2026
This Aljazeera segment contains a statement from Iran’s deputy foreign minister:
And Iran has upped the ante. From a later report on Tasnim, Iranian General Warns Settlers in Occupied Territories over Israeli Attacks on Lebanon:
Major General Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters, said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued his acts of aggression in the region by threatening to bomb Beirut and the Dahieh district and issuing evacuation warnings to residents there.
Referring to the Israeli regime’s repeated violations of the ceasefire, the Iranian commander warned that if the threat is carried out, residents of the northern parts of the occupied territories and military settlements should leave the area if they do not want to be harmed.
The commander said the warning comes in response to the Israeli regime’s continued ceasefire violations and its threats against Lebanon.
Tasnim has more “stern warning” stories based on official statements since that one. In chronological order:
IRGC Navy Targets US-Israeli-Owned Vessel in Retaliatory Strike
IRGC Quds Force Chief Warns of Bab el-Mandeb Disruption amid Israeli Attacks on Lebanon
Iran Says Breach of Ceasefire on One Front Constitutes Violation across All Fronts
Iran to Confront Israel If Attacks on Lebanon Continue, Qalibaf Warns
A recap from Hussein of the South:
An interesting timeline today.
Hezbollah inflicting huge losses on IOF in southern Lebanon and denying them an opportunity to establish fixed presence in invaded areas.
Israelis threaten Beirut if Resistance continues operations against northern settlements.
Hezbollah targets northern settlements.
Israelis say bombs incoming.
Iran suspends US talks, issues evacuation order for northern settlements. Warns strikes on the occupation entity will start if aggression escalates in Lebanon.
Trump runs to save face, says he talked with Netanyahu, claims he turned back Israeli occupation forces from going to Beirut (what.) and talks with Iran are advancing in “rapid” pace.
Israeli officials and journalists are calling Netanyahu a puppet, saying that they are occupied by the US, Ben Gvir adding that “it’s time to say no to the US.”
The Lebanese embassy in Washington: We made breakthrough in talks!
But the Trump-Netanyahu exchange was a clown show:
This should have been recognized as Netanyahu pwning Trump by making an empty promise and worse Trump being too clueless to see that. Israel was not sending ground forces to Beirut. It’s now implementing the Gaza solution on a widespread basis, of bombing with such ferocity as to destroy communities and as many of their inhabitants as possible.
Confirming this assessment:
I had a real laugh after reading this:
Donald Trump said that Netanyahu promised him not to send troops to Beirut and that he would recall all forces allocated to that mission.
Beriut? netanyahu is making fun of Trump. After 88 days, the Israeli occupied 7 km from the border.…
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 1, 2026
Needless to say, the idea that Trump called not just one but multiple Leaders of Hezbollah is also ludicrous.
But someone had the bright idea of over-egging the pudding by leaking to the White Hous’s pet propagandist, Barak Ravid of Axios. From “You’re fucking crazy”: Trump fumes at Netanyahu in call on Lebanon:
Why it matters: Earlier on Monday, Iran threatened to abandon the negotiations with the U.S. over Israel’s actions in Lebanon. On the call, Trump called Netanyahu “crazy” and accused him of ingratitude, according to two of the sources. He also put the brakes on Israel’s plan to strike Beirut.
Behind the scenes: One U.S. official said Trump told Netanyahu that following through on his threats to bomb the Lebanese capital would further isolate Israel around the world.
- Two of the sources said Trump claimed he’d helped keep Netanyahu out of jail — a reference to his support during Netanyahu’s corruption trial.
- Summarizing Trump’s remarks to Netanyahu, the U.S. official said: “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”
- A second source briefed on the call said Trump was “pissed” and at one point yelled at Netanyahu: “What the fuck are you doing?…”
State of play: Israel no longer plans to strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut, an Israeli official told Axios.
It would be reasonable to treat this report of another lovers’ spat between Trump and Netanyahu with skepticism:
How many times have they sold and resold this same story about Biden and now Trump being secretly VERY VERY mad at Netanyahu https://t.co/uGpSULbhhM
— Krystal Ball (@krystalball) June 1, 2026
But the Times of Israel picked this story up as Trump said to tell Netanyahu ‘you’re f**king crazy’ while demanding Lebanon truce: ‘I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel.’
And there is backlash in Israel against the appearance of Netanyahu giving way to Trump, even if this was just a short-term measure. From the Financial Times in Benjamin Netanyahu faces backlash after Donald Trump call:
Netanyahu’s climbdown — which came amid mounting frustration in Israel at the failure to defang Hizbollah, with polls suggesting most Israelis favour more aggressive action against the militant group — drew criticism from across the political spectrum.
Naftali Bennett, the right-wing former prime minister widely regarded as one of Netanyahu’s main rivals in Israel’s looming election, accused him of “losing control over Israeli sovereignty”.
Yair Lapid, head of the biggest opposition party Yesh Atid, assailed Netanyahu for presiding over a “vassal state”, while Gadi Eisenkot, head of the centrist Yashar party, wrote on X: “There has never been a prime minister in Israel who accepted such a humiliating demand.”
There was also criticism from within the ranks of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, with national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir urging him to ignore Trump’s demands and ratchet up the campaign against Hizbollah.
“You said that a strong prime minister tells the President of the United States — ‘yes’ when possible, and ‘no’ — when necessary. This is the time to tell our friend, President Trump — ‘no’,” Ben-Gvir wrote on X.
However, Mr. Market did take some cheer from the apparent Israel retreat, with oil prices dropping by 1.4%.
But Israel has resumed its strikes on Lebanon. From Aljazeera’s live feed:
Israel carries out air raids on Lebanon’s Nabatieh city
Israeli forces have carried out multiple air raids on the city of Nabatieh, one of the largest in southern Lebanon, our colleagues on the ground report.
The city, a strategic hub for Hezbollah, has been encircled by Israeli forces in recent days as troops continue pushing north.
Israeli attacks were also reported across the wider Nabatieh district as Israel deepens its occupation of surrounding areas. Drones hit the towns of Kafr Sir and Aabba, while a strike targeted the road leading to Houmine al-Fawqa. The outskirts of Yahmour al-Shaqif were also hit.
And a later entry:
Israeli defence minister says operations in southern Lebanon to continue
Israel Katz says military operations in southern Lebanon will continue under all circumstances.
The defence minister also said Israel’s military is studying the possibility of carrying out additional operations in Lebanon and suggested that attacks could be expanded depending on developments along the border.
He said Israel’s longer-term objective is to disarm Hezbollah while its immediate focus is on removing the group’s weapons from areas south of the Litani River under Israeli control.
Do not forget that Iran has threatened Israel proper if it does not stop attacks in Lebanon:
BREAKING: Iran’s central military command has warned residents of northern Israel to flee their homes if Israel carries out its threat to strike the southern suburbs of Beirut. pic.twitter.com/v4Dy9voZhP
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) June 1, 2026
This US staging seems about as prudent as having bases across the Middle East with no bunkers. While I understand the usual defense for a plane is to get it into the air, can the US really get so many tankers aloft in a short time if Iran launches a big missile barrage?
This tweet just came in and may be a false report:
⚠️ BREAKING: MIDDLE EAST ON THE BRINK
🇮🇷🇮🇱Reports indicate that Iran has fired approximately 300 ballistic missiles at Israel, targeting key military bases and strategic sites.
pic.twitter.com/MN3PWZNNXO— NEXA NEWS (@Nexa_News1) June 2, 2026
And Trump is still losing his mind:
Trita Parsi and Mario Nawfal discussed what Iran moves means for a resolution of the conflict:
A key point from Parsi, via a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Are the Iranians at this point serious about making sure that that pressure leads to a result and if it does the Iranians will sign on to an agreement?
Or has Israel and Lebanon become a pretext at least for some of them to just get out of these negotiations altogether because they have such deep suspicions as to whether a deal with Trump will work in the end at al? And as a result, if Lebanon ends up becoming the triggering factor that that uh collapses the talks, they would be not necessarily pushing for it or actively seeking it, but if it happens, that’s a perfect exit for them. And then it’s not their decision. It’s it’s not anything of that kind, but it’s something that is mainly due to the US’s inability to hold the Israelis back…
If the US refuses to have a full regionwide ceasefire, I think the Iranians will likely not agree to a deal at all because to them it will be and this will confirm their suspicions that an agreement is just a way for the US and Israel to buy time to attack Iran again. and as a result it’s not worth it for them to sign on to the agreement.
Another elephant-in-the-room issue is that the popular and business press on an almost universal basis act as if a negotiated end to the war would mean a fairly swift return to close to the old normal level of Strait of Hormuz traffic. This is simply not in the cards. The world will suffer from a much lower level of transits through the Strait of Hormuz for a very long time even in a best case scenario. From gCaptain in Shipping Industry Says Hormuz Peace Deal Alone Won’t Bring Ships Back:
Shipping executives gathered at the Posidonia maritime exhibition in Greece on Monday delivered a clear message: even if Washington and Tehran finalize a ceasefire agreement, commercial shipping is unlikely to return to normal operations in the Strait of Hormuz without clear rules, security guarantees, and confidence that vessels can transit safely.
Let’s stop there. Do you think that the US and Iran will ever reach an agreement on the operation of the Strait of Hormuz (i.e,, Iran/Oman control), let alone one at the level of specificity needed to reassure ship operators and crews? Back to the article:
“What we need is obviously a framework, a rules regulation, whatever tells us exactly how we can go in and get out,” said Pankaj Khanna, President of Heidmar Maritime Holdings. “So even if a peace deal was signed, that needs to be clarified and that we don’t know as yet.”
The comments echo concerns repeatedly raised by shipowners, insurers, and maritime security organizations throughout the three-month crisis. While diplomatic discussions have increasingly focused on ceasefires and political agreements, shipping executives have consistently pointed to unresolved operational questions surrounding transit procedures, military instructions, insurance coverage, and liability risks.
Yiannis Procopiou, CEO of Centrofin Management, said the availability of insurance alone would not be enough to restore confidence.
“While insurance might be available, this does not mean that the strait is really a place where you want to be transiting,” Procopiou said. “At least until we have clear rules of engagement as the shipping industry, as to how we deal with the two nations that are involved here, the U.S. and Iran.”
“That’s, right now, a very high risk proposition,” he added.
However, ship owners appear to have a serious case of hopium as far as timing goes:
Evangelos Marinakis, founder and chairman of Capital Maritime & Trading Corp., said the industry could afford to wait longer if it results in a durable agreement.
“From what we have seen so far, we can afford to wait for two weeks more, one month more, if the final agreement was good for all of us,” Marinakis said. “An agreement that would make us feel safe and confident for the future.”
Marinakis said he remained optimistic that a solution could be found within weeks….
The comments reinforce a growing consensus across the maritime sector that reopening Hormuz will require more than diplomatic announcements. Industry groups including BIMCO, the International Chamber of Shipping, insurers, and shipowners have repeatedly warned that vessel traffic is unlikely to recover until operators have confidence that security guarantees, insurance arrangements, military coordination procedures, and navigation rules are clearly defined.
Another major unanswered question is the status of naval mines. Shipping industry officials have repeatedly warned that a ceasefire alone would not eliminate the risk posed by mines potentially laid during the conflict.
BIMCO has previously cautioned that restoring confidence in the Strait of Hormuz could require weeks of dedicated mine-clearance operations, designated transit corridors, and independent verification that key shipping lanes are safe before shipowners are willing to resume normal operations.
In keeping with the gCaptain article:
A number of vessel owners are saying that they are no longer receiving IRGC threats via the radio, which wasn’t the case a few weeks back. But still the confidence level in crossing is LOW. #Hormuz #Iran #US
— Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) June 2, 2026
Sal Mercogliano, in a fresh talk with Mario Nawfal, underscored the concerns of ship operators and ship hands, saying it was close to impossible to find crews that would go through the Strait of Hormuz. He also raised doubts about those who depicted the CENTCOM blockade as ineffective. He pointed out that the number of transits claimed through the Strait of Hormuz was misleading on multiple level. First, a fair number of the ship exiting were very small vessels, and thus not consequential from a tradeb utand the US was having some success with identifying and targeting those vessels. Third, many tried to bypass the blockade by using Pakistan and India coastal waters, but the US was grabbing them in the open sea after that point.
Even though Mercogliano is a bit of a US Navy chauvinist, the issue remain that it does not take that much of a threat to deter most commercial operators. The risk of being captured or shot at is one that the overwhelming majority of owners and crews will not take. So the blockade can be mighty leaky and still prove to be adequate as a deterrent.
From a lightly edited machine transcript:
I’ve gone through this for 13 weeks now and it’s the same. It just seems to be the same thing. I think it eventually breaks at some point. I just have no idea when you get a a resolution.
ButI have to say again that even if you get a resolution, even if you get Bibi Netanyahu, President Trump and the Ayatollah together, you know, and they hug and whatever they do, if I’m a shipping firm, do I go back into the Persian Gulf? It’s like, I don’t think so. It’s like this can start, this can start again tomorrow. It can, I mean if the same players are in place, what agreement? If you get a 60-day ceasefire, you open the Strait of Hormuz, ships are going to come out, you’re going to get the ships out. But the ships that come in are going to be very select. It’s going to be really expensive to go in because the insurance is going to be through the roof and they’re going to want guarantees and security.
One of the stories not being reported, I’ll give you this, is we talked about the 20,000 mariners that were stuck out in the ships. Well, we’ve got airfare. We got airlines now operating. You can do crew rotations, but the shipping lines are having a hard time getting replacement mariners to go out there. Nobody wants to sign on to a ship to be stuck in the Persian Gulf. It’s kind of a, you know, it’s kind of a dead-end assignment. Plus, you may get shot at. You may get killed. It’s like, I’m going to go work on a different ship or I’m going to go pick a different career.
So, you know, does shipping return? I think even if you have peace in the Middle East, which again, good luck happening, is I don’t think you see a return. And remember we didn’t see that in the Bab el-Mandab even when the the the peace resolution was made with Gaza and the Houthies admitted to stop shooting. We still haven’t seen a return to normal shipping in the in the Bab el-Mandab before February of 28th of this year. So I mean I would not ever expect to see normal shipping.
Sorry for the abrupt end, but sone for today! See you tomorrow!
The US seems adequately deterred by the Hormuz weapon. Israel is not. The US will not restrain Israel, politically cannot it seems. So how will Iran deter Israel without attacking it directly?
They could hit all Israeli troops and bases in Lebanon.That way, they could claim that they are not targeting Israel itself but only targets in Lebanon – which is a foreign country. Not their fault if it hits IDF troops there. Of course that would be a bit of a worry for an IDF soldier in Lebanon. It’s one thing to try to duck and weave away from a Hezbollah FPV drone that got into your base. But how do you duck from an Iranian ballistic missile?
Hormuz doesnt affect Israel, because the US gives and will give them all the oil, gas, fertilizerm etc they need
The Israelis can get all that over land… from the Saudis.
The Saudis don’t give them oil for free do they? The Americans don’t just give them oil, they supply everything to Israel, for nothing.
You know, this might be useful to add to the conversation because I think you and others don’t understand the scale of what is being discussed.
With that in mind, the response to your suggestion about Israel getting what they need over land or from the US is… Not really. We’ve had pipeline and shipping disruptions in the US and it is amazing how little can be distributed when you change delivery methods. The volumes of petrochemicals and oil involved are enormous. A fleet of trucks can’t replace a pipeline. A pipeline can’t replace a fleet of very large carriers.
So it may be that some of what Israel needs can continue to be supplied when a disruption occurs, but certainly not all. Take a read of this thesis regarding comparable domestic US operations when we’re not engaged in a war on our borders. That analysis discusses jet fuel usage for Naval Airbase Oceania in Norfolk area. The usage volumes are 115000 gallons to 300000 gallons per day. That’s roughly 800000 gallons of jet fuel per week, on the low side estimate, when not in war. Add in tanks, support vehicles, and other requirements, and you add up to real demands very quickly. By comparison, a typical fuel delivery truck carries about 2000 gallons. A typical very large crude carrier has a capacity for 800000 to 1 million barrels of oil. One barrel of oil is equal to about 42 US gallons. So one VLCC carries 33.6 million gallons of crude. For further comparison, a 3 pipeline set like the Colonial Pipeline (which experienced a nasty cyber attack a few years ago) carries about 42 million gallons of product each day in each pipeline, but the delivery location is fixed and the pipeline is an easy target which also requires a lot of maintenance.
But, remember, jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, are all processed fuels. You have to do something to the oil to get the jet fuel for your aircraft. So the input volumes required to generate the required fuel to support a fleet of aircraft are enormous. And if you think those volumes are big, wait until you look at the sheer liquid volume of fertilizer required for hectares of farmland to feed a country.
Bottomline, Israel and the US are burning through what they need very quickly. Even if the Saudis and everyone else decides to continue their support, it may not be enough to continue to fuel the warmachine.
I had been under the impression that Israel was getting a lot of its petrochemicals via tanker from Turkey. [Who, in turn, ships the stuff in from places like Azerbaijan.] Until the port in Haifa is reduced to dust particles, that is going to continue.
Its total consumption has been about 200k-225k bpd, let’s bump that up to 250k bpd to account for all the US planes parked there currently and the operations in Lebanon. So one VLCC is eight days’ worth. Not a huge problem to set up that supply line, even if you have to ship the stuff in from Brazil or wherever instead of Turkey, as long as the ports exist physically.
Mind you, that’s barrel of oil equivalents. By specific fuels, as of a couple of years ago they were using (based on GlobalEconomy.com) ~70k bpd gasoline, ~20k bpd jet fuel, ~60k bpd diesel. So 150k bpd distillates, let’s increase that to 175k bpd because of wars or whatnot. Now, the trick is, they were producing about 80% of domestic demand at their local refineries, and this was before Iran struck the Haifa one a few times. So at this point one imagines they import more distillates than crude. But again, not a hugely complicated logistical line to maintain without ever touching the Gulf states (hello, Saudi pipeline to Yanbu within shouting distance from Eilat!), so long as no-one is eradicating the port facilities.
I mean, if you’re going to throw numbers around…
On the US Navy side, I am fairly confident they could set up an oiler chain to Diego Garcia or wherever. The real trick is that with the blockade of the blockade, the actual ships needing fuel are not all gathered together in a convenient spot, so you need to do some sort of a regular rotation for refueling and other kinds of resupply. Still feasible.
Moreover, in the context of the overall US supply-demand balance, its military activity is still a tiny fraction. Your own example, 300k gallons per day is equivalent to 7k bpd. SEVEN. Multiply that by 100, and you’re still under 5% of daily US demand. This does not mean you cannot or will not have overall shortages, but even with a 2.5mm bpd imbalance of heavy crude you need for diesel production, that 2.5mm isn’t coming out of the Pentagon’s allocation, but rather out of the civilian economy. I would wager.
So I’m not really sure I agree with your conclusion. This is NOT a Ukraine-scale conflict, and again, unless the Iranians do a serious number on Israeli logistics, the US can certainly continue to drive the crazy train for a while.
And by the way, if I were the Iranians, I wouldn’t even hit Haifa much. Instead, hit the fossil fuel power stations, repeatedly – 80% of Israel’s electricity is oil and gas (all imported), another 11% is coal (ditto). You will notice the Iranians have thus far studiously avoided touching these, presumably saving them as one of the rungs on the escalation ladder.
That was 300k gallons of jet fuel, not just oil, for one medium sized naval air base, per day. Using EIA estimates, we make about 4.4 gallons of jet fuel per 42 gallon barrel of oil. So on the US side, a week’s worth of jet fuel for Oceania operations requires about 20 million gallons of crude. When domestic US bases have had pipeline disruptions, they cannot maintain required jet fuel supplies.
I guess we’ll see what happens overseas. I am not convinced we can keep this up.
a typical fuel truck in fact takes 7,500 gallons of jet/diesel or 8,500 gallons of petrol. a rail car will hold 35,000 gallons. coastal bulk users are often supplied by barge loads running into the low millions of gallons. clean tankers can and do transport refined products. yes, the scale is big. yes, the harvests will be bad in many places. yes, there will be excess deaths. no, the pentagon will not go bingo fuel.
The size of fuel trucks is limited by road allowances in terms of weight and dimensions. Damaged roads will reduce that capacity. Also, 8000 gallon tanker trucks are fairly large. Israel gets most of its supply from seaborne sources, but the nature of their current supply chain and how it is holding up now isn’t well documented in any publicly available resource I’m aware of. The last serious attempt to document how Israel receives and uses oil and related fuels that I do know about was from Oil Change International in 2024.
OCI certainly has an agenda but they used to do some detailed fact checking before publishing documents. As we’ve already discussed there are ranges of values for these materials that can certainly be used to shift how certain findings are perceived. So read that report with open eyes.
Now, I don’t know that we can say the Pentagon and the IDF won’t experience fuel emergencies if they continue to operate. Nothing that has been done to date makes me think they have great logistics people in charge. I’m not even sure Trump and his Secretary of War would listen to them. But as their emergency landing options are severely limited from the destruction of regional bases, the reason our pilots won’t go bingo is because they might not have that option.
During the Iraq-Iran War and the so-called Tanker Wars several hundred of vessels were attacked, more than 100 were sunk, oil tankers and other merchant ships, more than a hundred seafarer were killed…etc. I think Sal is a bit too pessimistic.
Striking the West Bank settlements is long overdue. After all they are the radical element that is the engine for the entire crisis.
But militarily irrelevant and would not stop the genocides. Give West Bank Hamas FPVs by the boatload.
Yves, thank you for the continued reporting on the Iran war. I tune in every day for an update. You made a very good point about Iran not being ready to “stand tall” until they had replenished their inventories and repaired the necessary infrastructure. I wondered why Iran hadn’t attacked Israel with a vengeance. It seems like they may be ready to now.
May I second my thanks, Yves.
A very important daily read for me.
The time stamp on the DJT “if they surrender” posting – that can’t be EDT, as it isn’t that late yet – it’s still before 8 AM here.
I screen shot it directly from his Truth Social site so this is what that site displays. You tell me. Perhaps it lists the time where I am as opposed to in EDT. I don’t have a VPN on right now.
I checked Trump’s 4.47 AM post you screenshot; I had to seek it out among the insane amount of silly posts on his account, and when I opened that specific post, it didn’t show the same hour (the .47 of course was identical), so it clearly changes depending on our own time zone. So we can assume that the Truth Social system displays the viewer’s local time and not the account’s local time.
By the way, at nearly 200K people in the urban area, I wouldn’t call millennia-old (and biggest Phoenician city-state) Tyre a “village”.
Amazing work as always and great summary of the dire situation.
Just come from his Truth Social account and it is accurate. You have to scroll down all his political endorsements first to get to it. In fact, here it is-
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116677921449196957
I would be unsurprised if whoever coded the platform for team Trump managed to screw up time-stamping in some creative way. It would be in keeping with the rest of the admin.
At least a few of the Web sites by which I follow US misadventures adjust message timestamps to the timezone configured on my OS+browser platform (currently western European legal time), most noticeably on YouTube’s “scheduled for” message regarding upcoming podcasts. Truth social’s software engineers can easily recycle the logic from any of the others.
It’s also a repeat of a post-truth from May 18
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116596094940250402
All done! Please refresh this page and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
Thanks again. Needs a wee edit in the discussion on the Mario Nawfal video with Sal Mercogliano. There’s some garbled language.
What Mercogliano said was garbled at points. I can only do so much without inventing, which is not on.
BTW that often happens when a speaker is saying something he really does not want to have to say.
Thanks, and that second part is interesting.
Krystal Ball nails it. This whole supposed Trump-Netanyahu spat is just “angry Biden” redux. Ignore it. All that matters are actual ships transiting the Strait — in economic terms everything else in the western corporate media organs is noise.
Caitlin Johnstone also weighed in on that Axios article:
“As usual the article was authored by Israeli intelligence insider Barak Ravid, who has made an entire career out of falsely reporting that the US president is furious with Netanyahu and is moments away from twisting Israel’s arm to make peace.
“Some Barak Ravid headlines from the Biden administration include the following:
– Biden “running out” of patience with Bibi as Gaza war hits 100 days
– Scoop: Biden in “frustrating” call told Bibi to solve Palestinian tax revenue issue
– Biden’s ultimatum to Bibi: Change Gaza policy or we will
– White House temperature is “very high” ahead of Biden-Bibi call
– “We won’t support you”: Inside Biden’s ultimatum to Bibi … ”
She goes on to list *14 more* similarly bulls**t headlines. She also points out that Israeli officials were quoted in the Israeli press as saying that this planned attack on Beirut had been fully coordinated with the US.
https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/2026/06/02/thousands-of-new-yorkers-just-attended-a-nazi-parade-and-other-notes/
lol, thanks. That’s quite a list.
Thanks for that, Caity Johnstone is one of the best journalists in the entire Anglosphere. Judge Nap or someone should interview her. Her track record has been spot on for years.
Axios is very likely a CIA/Mossad outlet for disinformation. That Ravid dude is highly suspect to say the least. The Unhinged Emperor has a PR problem. He has accepted 100s of millions in bribes from Zionist and Israeli oligarchs, as well as from Gulf kleptocrat-dictators. Nothing to see there, no corruption, no treason. When the president does it, that means it’s not illegal. (RM Nixon)
Sooner or later we will learn whether Israel is the tail or the dog. Another Iranian missile attack may reveal the truth.
If you follow the money trail, per comments above, we’re looking at a big dog with a big and long tail. Try to separate them – can’t be done.
A dog named Ouroboros.
Thank you. I think that sums up my thoughts. US and Israel alternate in policy and behaviour.
WASS.
I wonder how soon all the American Zionists who “Bought” land in the West Bank and Gaza will sue Keller Williams and the synagogues that sold them property they did not have Title to?
Wow that gCaptain reporting is edifying. Supports everything you’ve been writing here all along. One wonders why these kind of dispositive quotes don’t make it into the FT or WSJ. Especially Bloomberg, which every trader has running on their desk.
I mean, they’re financial market publications, right? Like you said yesterday Yves, how many people saw 2008 coming before it hit us in the face? Thanks for your coverage here. Chapeau.
The Iranians have really hulled Trump between wind and water. How is he suppose to post how those imaginary negotiations are going if the Iranians are not talking to him. What is the point of threatening them if they don’t respond. Certainly it will make his market manipulations that much harder. Trump’s “strategy” seems to have been to keep on kicking the can down the road until something happened that would save him. Maybe he was hoping for an Iranian collapse but it turns out that hope is not a strategy. But with Russia and China helping Iran, I do not think that that is going to happen and Iran will survive. Meanwhile the world economy is scraping the side of a massive iceberg and will be taking on water more sooner than later.
How is he suppose to post how those imaginary negotiations are going if the Iranians are not talking to him.
The same way he posts up on any other imaginary things?
Easiest and simplest? Just talk about “secret” negotiations being ongoing.
No sooner said than tweeted!
Termination of the memo passing through Islamabad put Iran back to the end of the 12 day war last June. This is where US had it anyway the phony mediation just a tactic to do another decapitation, sooner or later.
The object of the US is balkanize Iran same as its object toward Russia and China. Thucydides trap alive and well.
What US did not see: shuttering Hormuz.
Iran has no better weapon to save itself from US design than Hormuz….
Blocking the Red Sea can be done by a few drones over Aden!
I just don’t buy it. I think it is theater. And I think that the Iranians know that.
One thing that I don’t understand is why Trump is going through the charade of negotiations. His proposals will never get traction with Iran. All it is doing is allowing the clock to tick on the economic tsunami which is heading to the Collective West.
He’d be better served looking for the quickest possible exit ramp.
Seems like his entire strategy is to continue to “kick the can down the road” thinking he’ll somehow outlast Iran.
Kicking the can down the road is an American political tradition. Goes all the way back to slavery and the decision to delay doing anything about with it at its formation until it blew up 80 years later.
America had for the longest time the option of “free” real estate to the west that I could vent political disagreements by just having the that solve problems.
US in talks to expand nuclear weapons deployments in Europe
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-talks-expand-nuclear-weapons-deployments-europe-ft-says-2026-06-02/
Turkey Is in Talks With Russia on Gas Supplies Beyond 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-01/turkey-is-in-talks-with-russia-on-gas-supplies-beyond-2026
Venezuela orders airlines to pay fuel fees to US Treasury
https://www.asatunews.co.id/en/venezuela-orders-fuel-payments-us-treasury
International Court of Justice extends timeline in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel
https://www.jns.org/news/israel-news/international-court-of-justice-extends-timeline-in-south-africas-genocide-case-against-israel
Finland seizes nearly €4m in Russian assets
https://yle.fi/a/74-20229298
Perpetual War. Reading a history of the Cherokee nations and the Trail of Tears. Lots of parallels.
One major difference: more lawfare with the Cherokee situation. Net result still seems to be not terribly different. Churchill’s talkie-talkie jaw- jaw comment seems to no longer be in vogue- the institutions are on the wane if in existence. Plus, all the new low-cost/ highly-effective paradigm shift to drones, etc.
It is really something- perfect venue to test and perfect, lemons into lemonade. Lookit Ukraine’s new Industrial base?!! Heady Stuff!!
Would not surprise me in the least that Iran has some steely resolve to NOT be the First Nations redux.
The seemingly irresistible little- boy need for the thrilling cause- and- effect trigger-pull/ big bang, the fire cracker light -fuse- get- away amidst the agest- oldest conflict: well let’s just say the Ploymarket odds should be pointing 100% ends badly/ never ends.
That Trump Org et al bet the daily swings- easy money, right?
Saw a vanity plate yesterday: Nihil The New West/ Montana in 2026.
I wondered if it was the infinitive of a verb, or what part of speech it could be.
Ponderable that made the bike ride fly by!
I have noticed the aging on my receivables is becoming protracted… velocity of money in the New West at the speed of Nihilism? An alternative economic indicator of fly-paper stickiness?
Just in time for the sh*t to hit the floor fan at Speed 3 in late July? Runoff in the northern Rockies is 3-4 weeks ahead of ‘normal’. Good thing folks don’t lose their cool in the heat of summer!
We are absolutely killing it.
You’re not the only one with major delays of receivables. My small business is running out of money even though our billings are ahead of last year. Nobody is paying. It’s infuriating and feels like 2008.
Cool word that, nihil.
Latin for nothing or nothingness (nil).
Also a 1995 album by KMFDM, their 7th studio release.
Re. Shipping
I’ve made this point before, but it keeps getting missed.
The noted concerns for shipping in the Gulf, in order of apparent priority, are:
1. Insurance,
2. Ship security
-large gap-
3. Crew health and safety
The concept being that if these are resolved or mitigated marine traffic will return to normal.
I think this concept is false, as it fails to account for damage to the production, storage, and port facilities that has been incurred so far. Solve all of 1-3 above and the marine traffic in the Gulf will be lower because it takes time to assess and repair the damage, if it can be repaired at all. How much capacity has been lost and for how long is anyone’s guess, but the answer isn’t zero and that appears to be the baseline assumption for all of the shipping experts. Ships require cargo, so if there are fewer things to move due to damage to production infrastructure, and longer loading times due to storage/loading infrastructure damage, there will be fewer ships, which in turn cascades through the global economy.
Is this reduction negligible? Is it permanent? I don’t know but we’re going to find out.
And even THAT presumes that nothing further happens on the kinetic front in the weeks and months ahead. I will be more than a bit surprised if we don’t see another round or three of missiles and drones inbound.
I also saw an interesting note that the trapped ships in the Persian Gulf are now accumulating large amounts of barnacles that if it continues to grow on the propellers could be an increasing problem. Another interesting consequence that I hadn’t seen mentioned on here before.
I don’t have any expertise in shipping so I don’t know if it’s a real issue.
Recall that the US was an early pioneer of the “Gaza solution” during their invasion of Southeast Asia, with Henry Kissinger directing “anything that flies on anything that moves” when he passed along President Richard Nixon’s instructions for the vicious bombing of the region.
I like to think that the US has become slightly more humane since the 50s and 60s, though the evidence for that is pretty thin. However, it’s easy to imagine that Netanyahu and his cronies learned their atrocities from studying US tactics during that time.
Bono and Kissinger knew each other well. At their last meeting in 2023 it was reported they had known each other “for years,” but I suspect it was decades.
Just like spell check to change Bibi to “Bono” but it’s funny.
I’m sure bono was happy to meet both, as they were all about love and peace and elevation partners, and the anesthetic future.
I am ignorant of the maritime insurance industry
I would imagine that most, if not all, insurance brokers for commercial shipping are Western…
What if Eastern powers (China, SCO members) were to develop and offer an alternative at a more reasonable cost?
It seems that the ‘Eastern bloc’ is actively finding ways to skirt Western sanctions and economic pressures associated with Western financial hegemony.
IIRC, China is insuring its own vessels. Maybe someone recalls this being discussed in recent weeks.
A bit off-topic but related: Since Yves and NC has done such an outstanding job and worked very hard at curating and aggregating a huge amount of information, as well as providing excellent independent analysis, I think it is high time to see Yves interviewed by Judge Napolitano, Daniel Davis, Mario Nawfal, or another similar outlet.
Yves, are you open to that sort of thing? Or have I missed any interviews?
I don’t do TV but that is kind.
And I am not a subject matter expert on Iran, merely a very good vetter and synthesizer of information. I don’t believe in non-experts offering commentary except very narrowly. On TV, you are expected to go where the interviewer takes you. I way too often see guests getting way out over their skis as a result.
What about being a guest on something like Chapo?
You have a small following in the TrueAnon fandom
How about radio? NPR could use a strong cup of sobriety à la Yves. Focus could be along the lines of the future (and shortages caused by the US misadventure in the gulf!) not being evenly distributed, a point few outside of here seem to get.
Yves is not “both sides” enough for today’s adjusted NPR.
I beg to differ, NPR is strictly on one side these days, the billionaire (Joan Kroc) side.
It’s not NPR’s fault that both the Republicans and the Democrats are also on the billionaire side. Well, maybe it’s a little bit NPR’s fault.
Once and future NPR field producer here: don’t get your hopes up. We lowly tape mongers out in the hustings (yes, that long ago) referred to our DC minders as “National Petroleum Radio.”
Nice Polite Republicans
Liz and Yves would have such a great conversation! And Brace has done more in his 30-odd years than anyone I know.
Would be a clash of vibes, for sure! But hearing Brace introduce her would be 🧑🍳 💋
I do recall some wonderful discussions with Gonzalo Lira (RIP) and friends. Gad, I wish he had left Ukraine earlier.
Yes, so do I. He is/was a bright shinning. Star (bulb).
There are a multitude of live takes available.
NC summarises the best of them right here, distilled over a few scant hours, and that effort does not leave enough time in the day to go to the trouble to summarise her take, which, given her non elite audience, would make no difference at all.
Bearing honest witness, even in a unfashoinably friendly format, is a wonderful thing
I am very grateful to Yves for sticking to the written word as much as possible in these times.
Marshall McLuhan was right, video and audio have exactly one message – whatever I am saying right now is ephemeral, a vanity and a striving after wind, it will not matter tomorrow.
Material shortage in German manufacturing sector intensifies on geopolitical tensions
New UNCTAD monitor warns vulnerable economies face the heaviest burden from oil shocks
Link to the PDF.
This morning I doom scrolled Twitter and didn’t see anything about Iran; Usually I see dozens of tweets. And I’m hitting BBC, CNN now, NY Times, and it’s like the war just stopped. Nothing. And this is week 13 of no spice flowing.
I dunno. When the energy wall hits, it’s gonna be pretty lit.
Strangely I came across this dm_diamond:
We’ve done it
It was top line news but,due to circumstances beyond their control, they will have to rerun next month.
Will energy wall ever hit?
Pretty lit indeed.
I mentioned a couple of days ago that diesel prices here are pretty much back down to where they were before the war started.
Will be pretty funny to see the surprise on peoples faces when they start to go back up again.
In central coastal CA they have not dropped at all. Between $7.29 to $7.59. That hurts.
USA proposes 25% tariff to punish Brazil over trade practices
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-administration-proposes-25-tariff-punish-brazil-over-trade-practices-2026-06-02/
UN Secretary-General Guterres proposes new force to replace Lebanon’s UNIFIL
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-898049
Why should anyone be punished?
The us/isr and eu love punishment.
It gives results.
It gets results.
Spoilt brats, fantasists and fanatics are lauded over human beings
This seems important.
https://sonar21.com/does-iran-have-a-nuke-well-placed-source-says-yes/
I’ll believe it when the Iranian government makes a formal announcement.
link to vid in question, where they break the news:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y3XB9xUcnc
thats a big frelling deal…and if and when Iran follows through, and cooks off a nuke in its own territory, the whole world will know.
no amount of ai censorship will hide that.
the various signatures are well known…whether seismic, spectrographic, whatever.
within a week after such an event, ill allege that we’ll know a lot about the device, itself, based on sensory data.
Ali said that Russia taught them how to make it.
so all i gots to say to trump, et alia, is “well done, all!”
(and yeah, Larry and especially Pepe, get all worked up and giddy at times…but that feature felt a bit countered by the seriousness of this Ali guy, to me(whom i have never heard of)…and Pepe, for all his occasional overthetopness and sometimes silly ramblings, has deep connections all over eurasia.
so i always take him seriously, and then wait and see(and he’s someone else who has had a standing invite to hang around my fire for 20 years…imagine him and Paglia out here,lol))
whatever, we’ll soon know whats afoot…this news could easily explain the recent trump weirdness(sic)…i would watch what israhell does in the next 48 hours.
I haven’t watched the video, but the pattern here starting two days ago.
France, “Nuclear Umbrella” for EU
US, “Nukes for the EU”
“Iran has a nuke!”
Iran very well may, but forgive me for being skeptical.
Marco Rubio Snaps When Told Trump Iran Deal Is Just Obama’s But Worse
https://newrepublic.com/post/211242/marco-rubio-snaps-donald-trump-iran-deal-barack-obama-worse
New Mexico’s Epstein ‘Truth Commission’ issues 14 subpoenas at inaugural meeting
https://www.denver7.com/us-news/crime/new-mexicos-epstein-truth-commission-issues-14-subpoenas-at-inaugural-meeting
MAGA Freaks Out After Trump Ally Registers as Foreign Agent – It looks like Michael Flynn isn’t all that America First.
https://newrepublic.com/post/211218/maga-donald-trump-ally-michael-flynn-foreign-agent
Canada formally requests renewal of North American free trade pact
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn9prr3w9nlo
Six states sue Trump administration over deal to kill windfarm project
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/02/lawsuit-trump-administration-windfarm-leases
Ethiopia goes electric following gas car ban
https://www.dw.com/en/ethiopia-goes-electric-following-gas-car-ban/a-77350158
Netanyahu led Trump into war with Iran. Now he won’t let him end it
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/01/netanyahu-led-trump-into-iran-war-now-wont-let-him-end-it/
Here’s why Republicans just stood up to Trump
https://www.vox.com/politics/490638/trump-weaponization-fund-suspended-republicans
Trump Has Failed as Commander in Chief
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/opinion/trump-corruption-allies.html
Trump reads the NYT every morning, they say.
Acting AG Todd Blanche says Trump ‘absolutely’ would have gone to prison if he lost the 2024 election
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/todd-blanche-trump-jack-smith-2024-election-b2988289.html
Cruz on high gas prices: ‘I don’t think it’s gonna impact the midterms’
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5905777-ted-cruz-high-gas-prices-iran-war-2026-midterms/
Pentagon hires convicted Jan. 6 rioter for sensitive counterterrorism job
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/06/02/pentagon-hires-convicted-jan-6-rioter-sensitive-counterterrorism-job/
Israel strikes south Lebanon after stepping back from Beirut attack
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-south-lebanon-after-holding-off-beirut-attack-2026-06-02/
Kuwait confirms air defences intercepting missiles and drones as Cabinet condemns Iranian attacks
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/abnews/kuwait-confirms-air-defences-intercepting-missiles-and-drones-as-cabinet-condemns-iranian-attacks
Trump endorses a mysteriously missing Republican congressman
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/06/02/trump-endorses-missing-congressman-tom-kean-jr/90369076007/
The ceasefire continues.
US says it fired missile at Iran-bound oil tanker (BBC)
Someone on Twitter commented that the US firing hellfire missiles into an engine room is vastly disproportion for a blockade action.
Maybe this is what Trump meant when he said the two sides were continuing their “conversations”…
Watching Iran play Rope a Dope is really satisfying as the Torah! Torah! Torah! players are getting awfully squirmy.
Who would’ve thought a great empire that was America would be brought to it’s knees in such a fashion?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-new-grand-strategy?s=ESPZZ006U1
“Rubio and Vance are wrong. Tehran’s defiant approach reflects neither ideological rigidity nor factional infighting. Instead, it demonstrates Iran’s newfound confidence and the lessons learned from the war and previous rounds of talks. The country’s leaders understand that the United States is seeking to get from talks what it could not achieve in war and that Washington is not interested in a deal but in Iran’s surrender. Twice before, last June and in February, talks with the United States were interrupted by U.S. and Israeli strikes. And after a collapse in talks in Islamabad on April 12, Washington immediately imposed a naval blockade, followed by another demand for Iran’s unconditional surrender. Iranian leaders already claim they have won the war. They are not prepared to forfeit the gains they have made or to return to the containment cage they occupied before the war. This self-confidence—rooted in the belief that the war has empowered Iran rather than weakened it—is informing their international outlook. It is also central to the legitimacy they seek at home. Their diplomatic endgame must reflect what Iran’s defiance won in the war.”