Links 7/18/2026

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1. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 7:30 am

   “[UPDATED] Venezuelan Gov’t, Opposition to Launch US-Supported Dialogue for Electoral Reforms”

   ‘Figuera, picked by the US to head the talks with the Rodríguez government, claimed the two sides will jointly choose new judicial and electoral authorities.’

   Yeah, I bet they will. Maybe they will suggest to the Venezuelan what they suggested to the Iraqis some twenty years ago. That they adopt the US electoral system which, yes, would also include the Electoral College. There can’t be much wrong with the Venezuelan electoral system. Before the US banned them from taking part, the Jimmy Carter Center use to send observers to overlook the elections in Venezuela and found them to be fair. If anything, more fairer than in the US. And changing the judges can be bad too. A lot of what has been going wrong in the US is because conservatives spent nearly fifty years packing the US courts with ultra-conservative judges who rule for businesses and the like all the time.

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2. Steve H. July 18, 2026 at 7:36 am

   Yves uses a critical technique, a lemma of not appealing to authority, that when you’ve said one insightful thing, you’ve said one insightful thing, but the next thing must stand on its own. Not comfortable, but she applies the same standard to M Hudson, and we’re all cleaner for the scrubbing.

   I recently criticized Eliot Jacobson for hinky tactics on some of his charts. Let me give praise where it’s due. Breaking temperatures into decades helps increase understanding, addition by subtraction, more knowledge with less ink. You can get something like it running the cursor up the years on the full SST chart, but the flood of data can overwhelm. The decade chart scores high on the ‘intra-ocular trauma test’.

   One reason the full chart is harder is the delamination process, where an extreme year is (tautologically) followed by years with lesser values, but the later values don’t drop to long-term averages, they tend to cluster around the previous extreme year. A ratchet effect. This year looks like a delamination.

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3. Carla July 18, 2026 at 7:42 am

   Re: “The End of Reading” I wonder if Natalie Wexler & friends have ever heard of this: https://imaginationlibrary.com/

   Dolly Parton was way ahead of these educated education pundits. Little kids whose parents read to them and are constantly reading themselves, are apt to pick up the habit.

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   1. Es s Ce Tera July 18, 2026 at 11:36 am

      Even more so if their parents, as they are reading to them, follow along with their finger. This teaches spelling, punctuation, vocabulary and grammar. The reason I knew how to read before I started school.

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      1. ddt July 18, 2026 at 4:25 pm

         Preschool teacher was convinced my son knew how to read because he’d read “Green Eggs and Ham” to his buddy. Truth was he had memorized what was on each page from me reading it to him so much (and having a photographic memory that I also had and alas washed away when I discovered alcohol at the young age of 16).
         We did it all. Filled the room with books. Read every night. I tried getting him hooked to comic books like I was growing up. He did not develop a love of books or reading. It didn’t work with him. He’s addicted to his phone. My daughter did grow up to love books so batting .500 in that space.

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      2. GramSci July 18, 2026 at 4:33 pm

         Yes. There is no more efficient way to learn the Stress Pattern of English (TM Chomsky & Halle, 1968), even if your grandfather makes “Yosemite Sam” rhyme with “dynamite”.

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   2. eg July 18, 2026 at 11:55 pm

      Anecdata, but be warned that all you can control are inputs, not outcomes. My wife and I are both voracious readers and we brought our children up in a house full of books and read to them every night from the time they could listen until they were able to read on their own.

      Our daughter turned out like us — a life-long reader. Our son laughs at the notion of ever reading anything ever.

      What are we to make of such an outcome? I console myself that we did everything we could to inspire a love of reading. Sometimes it just doesn’t take …

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4. brian wilder July 18, 2026 at 7:48 am

   I have a question.

   I read the linked x.com tweet from Peter Girnus that starts:

   I am the Chief AI Officer at a company you would recognize, and I want to be precise, almost violently precise, because precision is the last luxury good.

   My question is: was the Girnus tweet AI-generated?

   I see that sing-song rhetoric, sprinkled with spicy metaphor and rhythmic contradictions everywhere. It is very hard for me to read and understand.

   Is it a fashion? Or, is it a by-product of LLMs?

   Any opinion welcome. I would like to hear other people’s take, as it were.

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   1. Huey July 18, 2026 at 8:15 am

      Girnus is fictional, or at best if the stories are true, he gets them from others. I think they’re parodies made to highlight just how bad corruption/elite malfeascance has become, at least the ones I’ve read.

      His posts do seem at least LLM assisted, but I’m not sure if that’s just the style that’s popular these days, or if it’s using LLLMs that’s popular or both.

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      1. Yves Smith Post authorJuly 18, 2026 at 9:51 am

         LLMs do not write in a highly stylized way. This treatment of someone who has a distinctive voice as AI is utterly off base.

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         1. Hickory July 18, 2026 at 12:14 pm

            Unfortunately, LLM AIs can definitely write in stylized ways, and I’ve seen it many times, both personally and in research studies. They can be told to have certain personalities, quirks, different kinds of sense of humor, and so on – and they will. Assuming someone with a distinctive style is using AI is incorrect. But it is a technical possibility. I’ll give some examples.

            I once dated a woman who had long term health issues and constantly needed empathy and affirmation, and she would get very angry if she didn’t get it. Finally she discovered that she could tell ChatGPT to talk to her in the way of a loving grandmother, and – I kid you not – she called me up and told me she didn’t need me anymore. Not that we weren’t dating, but that she didn’t need empathy from anyone else, because the AI gave her the style of communicating that she wanted.

            Other have seen this too. I read a study a few weeks ago of college students cheating with AI. And the study noted that the professors would attempt to determine AI-text from human-text. Of course, the students predicted the professors would try to detect AI, so they got AI to write unprofessionally. One student prompted the AI, “write in the style of a freshman who is a li’l bit dumb.” She knew an A-quality paper was not in the cards, and would look suspicious. But she was willing to take whatever grade she could get from the AI’s work.

            I downloaded LM studio and Google’s Gemma 4 26B myself, an entirely free, entirely local setup, and gave it varying personalities because I wanted to understand its capabilities, even if I avoid using them. It responded impressively each time. I told it once to be an infinitely loving and sweet grandmother, trying to reproduce what my ex did – and it was endlessly sympathetic and gracious. I told it to relentlessly tear down my self-esteem, using biting sarcasm as a dark comedian. It did as I asked, and its responses were disturbing. I’ve told it to write very directly and avoid sycophancy, and it did exactly that.

            I don’t use AI regularly, and indeed I avoid it. But whenever I hear of a capability, I test it out to learn if it’s real.

            I’ve become suspicious of a few writers recently, as there are some very distinctive writing styles that I didn’t see at all until the start of this year. For example, all of a sudden I’m seeing a very distinctive, highly dramatic style from several completely unconnected writers. Just last week I saw this same highly dramatic style on a political news site and a hunting land rental website, after seeing a few times just in the past few months. It’s extremely distinctive, and not something I’ve ever seen till recently, and reads very similarly. But it’s not bland or unimaginative at all, or devoid of personality as your post down-thread suggests LLM text needs to be. When I first encountered this writing style, I thought it was really engaging and interesting, but now that I’ve seen it repeatedly, it reads formulaic.

            I do suspect this will be our situation going forward: we can’t prove someone uses AI to write something, or that they don’t. But if brand new highly engaging writing styles appear from many different writers simultaneously, it’s a clue. To be clear, I’m not making any comment on the specific message that sparked this conversation.

            I appreciate this website’s stand against all the terrible impacts of AI, and I hope this post won’t be blocked for suggesting people experiment to determine its true capabilities. While I do my best to maintain my personal skills and avoid AI, I believe it’s critical to understand what AI is capable of. Many people who strongly resent AI’s impact on people and society avoid interacting with it and running their own experiments, and so they hang on to outdated beliefs about its capabilities.

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            1. Yves Smith Post authorJuly 19, 2026 at 2:49 am

               Sorry, your examples do not prove your assertion.

               “A little bit dumb” is not highly stylized. It = minor grammar errors or simpler vocabulary. That is not at all the same as a highly stylized, specific manner of presentation. You can’t create a big enough training set to achieve Peter Ginius.

               Similarly, AIs already have a bias towards sycophancy. These are general emotional colors and do not amount to a specific writing style.

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               1. skippy July 19, 2026 at 3:00 am

                  How many data sets/runs would it take to create some of the most random people on this orb by dint of mathematical force e.g. how does AI force[tm] an organic outlier. How do you test it, T/F, never mind the money aspect of the stampede in getting rich ….

                  Right back to your old saw about the microwave oven lass ….

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      2. Craig H. July 18, 2026 at 10:03 am

         It also is nonsense. What could violently precise mean?

         I am going to make a killing with my Strunk & White LLM.

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         1. Michaelmas July 18, 2026 at 1:55 pm

            Craig H: It also is nonsense. What could violently precise mean?

            It’s AI authority theater parody.

            Girnus is parodying the voice of an AI executive or someone in the corporate world involved in AI. Here’s another instance of him doing it —

            ‘I am the analyst who runs AERO at the Department of Health and Human Services. I fed ChatGPT 5 years of audit reports and asked it who to defund. It does not know what it does not know, which is also true of me, and it is why we work so well together….’

            Girnus is a real person, because pre-AI he was involved in cybersecurity and there are posts by him back to at least 2018, showing the same off-center parodic mindset.

            Yves S: LLMs do not write in a highly stylized way. This treatment of someone who has a distinctive voice as AI is utterly off base.

            This particular kind of stylization, which is all about its intent to parody a particular class of people in a particular way you can’t get an LLM to do currently. But you can absolutely train LLMs to write in highly stylized ways and even tell them things like ‘give me a J.G.Ballard-Anthony Powell’ hybrid. Sometimes they’re way off, sometimes they’re surprisingly successful.

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      3. hazelbee July 18, 2026 at 10:43 am

         it reads to me like someone that uses AI a lot and is trying to stay human, not ai generated to me.
         I use these tools every day, it gets into your head. I’m sick of reading unfiltered claude text now. i crave simpler, and just LESS text.

         he is relatively easy to find. he’s a security threat researcher. so i agree that they are fictional and written to make a point.

         and the points about tacit knowledge, and fear of missing out are good.

         I mean this is spot on: “the tacit knowledge of my business is leaving through the API and settling into weights I will never own”. institutional knowledge leaving the building . how long before its rented back to you.

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         1. dave -- just dave July 18, 2026 at 12:03 pm

            “the tacit knowledge of my business is leaving through the API and settling into weights I will never own”

            I needed a paraphrase for this and asked a Google-related chatbot to translate the first few paragraphs into terms suitable for an eighth grader with age-appropriate reading skills. It obliged, and then I was able to read the rest of the piece without help.

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            1. hazelbee July 19, 2026 at 6:54 am

               sorry for choosing a quote using heavy jargon.

               tacit knowledge – what lives in your head and isn’t written down anywhere.

               API – application programming interface. i.e. in this case from your employees head, written down and shared with an AI / LLM provider. or even lower friction these days using voice rather than typing.

               weights – referring to the technology behind neural networks.

               “never own” – i.e. you will own nothing, rent and be happy.

               i think its a great long term risk – literally sharing how your business works and not owning the result and paying for the privilege.

               the risk is like the outsourcing craze but of knowledge based work. step 1 pay someone and they learn how to do your job. step 2, you depend on them and have nobody internally to do your job. step 3 you own nothing they put the prices up, and you have no capability to respond.

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         2. alrhundi July 18, 2026 at 1:57 pm

            It’s like AI psychosis meets LinkedIn Lunatic

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   2. Yves Smith Post authorJuly 18, 2026 at 9:48 am

      I have said REPEATEDLY that accusing writers of having “AI writing” is a fast track to getting moderation and blacklisting points.

      I hate to beat up on you, but this happens all the time. Authors who have created a distinctive writing style are regularly and falsely accused of AI writing. Girnus’s has a SPECIFIC formula and his writing is full of ticks. This is the ANTITHESIS of AI writing, which is bland and homogenized.

      Any help with LLMs for writing will make you sound like a journalist, stripped of all idiosyncracy, which, for many, is not a bad thing.
      This is structural, the way statistical machines operate. LLMs are bland, dull, & devoid of personality. https://t.co/D78r07JQor

      — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 26, 2026

      The next comment like this and any follow on comments will be expunged.

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      1. amfortas July 18, 2026 at 11:42 am

         as ive said, i dont use ai, save for the google thing for help talking to linux.
         and i aint a techie, by any means.
         but i have noticed, over maybe the last year or so, a hard to point to/but its there…like…change in the style guide, or something.
         bullet pointy, and with a certain rhythm.
         different from traderspeak…
         idk even how to start to run that sort of thing down, however.

         something else i noticed recently(and honestly, this has been a thing in tv/radio for a long time*)…is a sort of adopted non-accent/speaking style.
         the Shelby gal that Breaking Points had on yesterday…sounded exactly like my eldest’s fiance,lol…and she grew up right here.
         ive noticed it a lot. future daughter in law is in online, (perhaps zoom?) meetings all day for her job, and i wonder if they teach this somewhere.
         dont know how to run that down, either,lol.

         just observations from the dirt road.
         (*way back in broadcasting school, they attempted to undo my thick and slow east texas drawl…telling me that the homogeneous voice wins every time.)

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         1. Laughingsong July 18, 2026 at 12:44 pm

            I hope you still have it mr. hippie! I love that slow drawl.

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            1. jonboinAR July 18, 2026 at 3:54 pm

               My Arkansas wife has quite a twang. One lady at our church talks reeaal slooww and twangy. I asked someone around here (Arkansas) if I still had an accent (Californian). They said I din’t. So, I don’t know how y’all would find me.

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            2. amfortas July 18, 2026 at 4:56 pm

               modified, perhaps, by that bit different west texas clip, and the idiosyncrasies in hill country inherited from the adelsverein….but yeah,lol.
               “Hog” is a five syllable word.

               oh, and heres this, just fer grins:https://x.com/Reil76/status/2078451585642840455

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      2. Craig H. July 18, 2026 at 4:36 pm

         Authors who have created a distinctive writing style are regularly and falsely accused of AI writing.

         Have you exposed your samples to the stylometry nerds? The New York Times has published two big stories with one writer claiming to identify Satoshi and another writer claiming to identify two authors of the Qanon posts.

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         1. Yves Smith Post authorJuly 19, 2026 at 2:59 am

            I do not mean to come down on you, but what about “I hate AI with the passion of a thousand burning suns” don’t you understand? Having said that, text analyzers predate LLMs; one was used to identify the probable author of Primary Colors.

            And I don’t see why I should bother getting a machine analysis my style. It would not answer any questions useful to me. It sounds like a purely narcissistic exercise.

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5. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 7:53 am

   “Canada’s PM Carney says Gordie Howe bridge tolls won’t be split with Michigan until $6.4B of debt is repaid”

   Carney is still tap dancing about what the deal was that he made with Trump. Originally, Canada and Michigan were going to be sharing revenues to make it a fair deal. But now? Nobody is certain what the new deal is and I have no idea if Michigan is still going to be part of this new deal. Guess we will have to wait for a leak or something.

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   1. ChrisFromGA July 18, 2026 at 8:34 am

      Maybe the Orange lunatic will order Kegsbreath to bomb the Gordie Howe Bridge if Carney doesn’t pay up.

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      1. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 10:48 am

         Better yet, elements of the AIPAC Kinetic Influencers Foreign Legion will perform a false flag attack on the bridge and blame it on dissident elements of the Quebecois Peoples Liberation Army. It could also be spun as a revenge attack by the Kurdistan Peoples Defense Units for all the times they have been betrayed by America.
         stay safe.

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      2. Oregon Lawhobbit July 18, 2026 at 5:00 pm

         No, the bridge will be demolished by a boatload of drunken Paraguayan SCUBA divers using over-the-counter munitions and diving off a party barge.

         Got to maintain that plausible deniability, after all.

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6. Ex-PFC Chuck July 18, 2026 at 7:57 am

   If you are a physicist named Brennan Sprinkle, how could you not sign onto a project to study Richard Feynman’s sprinkler problem?

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7. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 8:20 am

   “Neo-Colonial Coverage of Venezuela Earthquakes Adds Insult to Injury”

   I have noticed the same type of reports here in Oz. Trying to blame the previous government for not responding better to the earthquake when it had been starved of resources for decades of economic siege. It was really victim blaming and is akin to blaming Dachau survivors for not taking better care of their health.

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8. Ignacio July 18, 2026 at 8:23 am

   The baby monkey like baby humans uses his finger to calm ache caused by growing teeth, in my opinion.

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9. flora July 18, 2026 at 8:35 am

   re: Daniel Davis twt –
   “The fact that President Trump has recently chosen to rebrand Mamdani’s political party — Democratic Socialists — as a “communist“ and now this declaration to go after “radical left terrorism“….”

   T, a neo robber baron himself – a laissez-faire capitalist – naturally fears anything that smacks of a resurgence of New Deal-type regulated capitalism. The idea that New Deal-type capitalism is really commyism in disguise is a smear T hopes will stick. / my 2 cents

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   1. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 8:47 am

      I’m sure that the Democrats will help him with this. Anything that will rid them of leftists and progressives in the Democrat party is always to be welcomed by them. They are a right wing party now so have a lot in common with Republicans and can “work” with them on legislation. Still, having two right wing parties seems kind of superfluous to me. :)

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      1. brian wilder July 18, 2026 at 8:59 am

         The Labour Party is showing our Democrats the way, no?

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         1. Carla July 18, 2026 at 10:27 am

            How insulting! Our Democrats need no instruction, as they will be glad to tell us, and indeed, as they demonstrate every day.

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      2. flora July 18, 2026 at 9:00 am

         Superfluous? As someone said: America is extravagant. It has 2 right wing parties. / ;)

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         1. mzza July 18, 2026 at 10:15 am

            !yes! a paraphrase of my relatively new-to-me favorite quote attributed to Julius Nyerere, the first president of Tanzania, “Yes, we have one party here. But so does America. Except, with typical extravagance, they have two of them!”

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      3. hemeantwell July 18, 2026 at 9:17 am

         Yep. I’m waiting with great interest for institutional Dems to condemn left witch hunt yowling. Kudos to Davis for sounding the alarm, and it reinforces my sense that the left needs to be open to finding a way to work with the anti-imperialist right. Naomi Klein is completely wrong on this.

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      4. Alice X July 18, 2026 at 10:57 am

         The US has a Right Wing Party, and an Ultra-Right Wing Party…

         Gore Vidal

         (from long ago)

         The D’Rats didn’t say much about Tail Gunner Joe until he attacked the Army.

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      5. Mark Gisleson July 18, 2026 at 11:31 am

         Unsure about Democrats and this current crop of socialist candidates almost all of whom seem to have rich or influential and/or foreign parents stashed away.

         It’s a rightwing dream but I think we need a Constitutional convention with delegates selected by a nationwide caucus (IT’S REALLY EASY IF YOU MAKE THE CAUCUSES SMALL ENOUGH, the first thing the DNC did to end caucuses was to start combining caucus sites for greater efficiency/ease of vote stealing). Your “neighborhood” sends someone to a larger caucus which elects delegates to a county caucus where population determines how many delegates go to the state caucus where national convention delegates are selected. At a distance it sounds complex but in real time each vote has a clear purpose and a known candidate which allows participants to invest and have confidence in the process.

         I think zealots from both extremes would be shocked at how quickly this convention would reaffirm almost all of the Bill of Rights (98% of the fight would be over gun rights). The most cynical take I could have on a Constitutional Convention right now would be: How could they possibly make things worse?

         One necessary detail: the delegates should get all expenses paid plus a reasonable per diem and employers should be prohibited from firing or disciplining employees for absences incurred by delegate duties (like with jury duty). The worst part of the duopoly is that you literally have to be rich or part of an affluent org to afford to attend a national convention. That’s a huge source of the current bias both parties exhibit towards normal citizens. Delegates may pass an ID check, but if you find a poor delegate, you’ve found one who’s wholly owned by whichever group is paying their way (and controlling their vote).

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         1. Jason Boxman July 18, 2026 at 12:22 pm

            Just reading this reminds me of the Democrat debacle in the Iowa primary when Sanders last ran; It’s been such a long Pandemic I forgot about that travesty, which I doubt anyone in the Democrat Party paid for.

            I’ve forgotten half the Democrat Party debacles and skullduggery. Like after 2016 when the Democrat Party had argued in court that they can just pick anyone that they want in backrooms, there’s no democracy in the Democrat party.

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         2. albrt July 18, 2026 at 12:29 pm

            I am hoping for a constitutional convention, but only because I think after a couple weeks of getting nowhere the participants would probably just vote to dissolve the United States. Best thing that could possibly happen for the rest of the world, and probably for at least some of the successor countries in north America. Credit/blame John Michael Greer for putting this idea in my head.

            As a lawyer, I can tell you that committees rewriting rules and statutes will at least insist on “modernizing” and “simplifying” the language. What they end up with is never functionally the same as the original, and is almost always worse. Procedural details become the focus while the driving principles disappear.

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         3. Henry Moon Pie July 18, 2026 at 12:31 pm

            The problem with a new constitutional convention is that a lot of really bad characters have been gaming this out for years, but your proposal would force the issue into public discussion at the local level. I would add that caucuses should be able to instruct their delegates to the next level on how to vote. We have seen too often how ascending to higher levels of power corrupts.

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         4. flora July 18, 2026 at 1:21 pm

            re: ” The most cynical take I could have on a Constitutional Convention right now would be: How could they possibly make things worse?”

            Oh, you’d be surprised. The Koch Bros organization has been working toward a Const. Convention for a long, long time. They have new amendments already to go. From PRWatch, 2017

            https://www.foavc.org/Financials/Koch.pdf

            I’m not sure what’s the answer but I’m pretty sure it’s not a Const. Convention. The far right has been been preparing for one for a long time. The nominal left has no preparation for a Const. Convention beyond saying it would be a good idea. / my 2 cents

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         5. Planter of Trees July 18, 2026 at 3:28 pm

            How could they possibly make things worse?

            Oh, brother. There is no floor there.

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         6. scott s. July 18, 2026 at 3:29 pm

            It seems to me there are so many “loose ends” in defining a “convention for proposing amendments” that are ignored or waved away.

            First is the “call”. Congress is given authority to issue the call, but no details are mandated. So to me it means who, where, when and how is entirely up to congress. But regardless of the call, a convention has to boot-strap itself into existence. That is, a roll of delegates based on the call parameters show up and an interim chair gavels into session. Once in session those delegates have power to decide credential issues. When the final set of delegates is approved, that set then has power to appoint its chair and adopt its rules.

            There seems to be an assumption that a convention call would use a state-based delegate slate, but that’s just an assumption. Even if state-based there’s no assurance of how many delegates per state or how appointed.

            The output of a convention is amendments. Those amendments have to be ratified by 3/4s the states but Congress has the duty to determine mode of ratification. Only once has it specified ratification by convention, for Amendment XXI ending national prohibition.

            Rules of a convention would be interesting. Would electronic meetings / votes (like Zoom) be authorized?

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            1. flora July 18, 2026 at 4:54 pm

               It is up to the states. If enough of the states call for a CC then then one happens. (This is still a federal system.) That’s why the Kochs and the other right wing billionaires are so keen to get 34-38 state statehouses and governors in GOP control. It’s why it’s so stupid for the Dem estab to abandon the importance of state Dem elections, a la abandoning Howard Dean’s 50-state electoral plan. (Unless the Dem estab is clueless or possibly something worse, imo.)

               https://usconstitution.net/article-v-convention-of-states/

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         7. jonboinAR July 18, 2026 at 3:59 pm

            Id get tooken over so quick by monied organizational power, we’d end up wishing we’d never done that. You frickin betcha.

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            1. amfortas July 18, 2026 at 5:06 pm

               aye,lol. i aint a gamblin man, but i’d rather roll the dice with collapse, myself.
               were we somehow to follow the forms and do a convention, it would be a shitshow of corruption and perfidy….because the same asshats that run things now would spend bigtime to shore up their power and wealth.
               the very existence of curtis yarvin/moldbug should give one pause when contemplating such things.

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               1. jonboinAR July 18, 2026 at 5:27 pm

                  I didn’t even think of that freak and his ilk. Ew!! Yeah, actually the thought of a constitutional convention and the possible results of it kind of scares the devil out of me.

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                  1. amfortas July 18, 2026 at 5:53 pm

                     yeah. while the actual left was excluded, and then withered away…and the Nominal Left went all #metoo and woke…the various and sundry factions of the Right have been preparing and pushing for exactly this…for 30+ years, for some of them.
                     the Kochs(pronounced “cocks”, in Amfortas’ hermit kingdom) are more old school reaganish “libertarian”…but there are worse factions out there that are chompin at the bit, with a lot of jack behind em, to rejigger the operating system of this country to their liking.
                     myself, as ive said many times, i am preparing for a period of warlordism…at least in places like this…and have identified the likely suspects who will wander in and “take charge”…chaos and a chaotic balkanisation seems the most likely outcome, to me.
                     given the engineered utter lack of social cohesion, let alone esprit de corps.(got more of those where i live than likely any one of yall)

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                     1. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 9:03 pm

                        Round heyar, the most cohesive social groups are the various and sundry churches. After that, look to the narco street gangs for organizational ability. There is a small but well-armed series of “domestic” block groups and vigilante organizations. Locals expect the formal police forces to fall away from the “Official” government and adhere to ‘civic’ blocs. Muscle for hire as it were.
                        Stay safe and dry out there in the Texas hills.

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               2. Hepativore July 18, 2026 at 8:12 pm

                  The collapse is not going to be an instantaneous affair, as it has been happening in the US since the end of the New Deal era. Instead of an exciting descent into torches and pitchforks, we will probably continue to further degenerate into a sclerotic, post-empire kleptostate. Perhaps you will even start to see little corporate-owned fiefdoms cropping up like OCP from RoboCop where the companies that run them have full legal autonomy from the rest of the US and absolute authority over their subjects within like in Margaret Atwood’s Oryx and Crake.

                  After a short while, future generations will have become so used to the “way things are” with the above because anybody who could still remember when the US wasn’t a corporate neo-feudalist third-world hellhole will have long since died of old age by then. Any idea of an uprising will be thought of as idle fantasy with the legend of the New Deal era of the US being regarded as a tall tale bedtime story you tell children like Paul Bunyan or Pecos Bill.

                  I do not have high hopes for a new Constitutional Convention because of the high probability of it being hijacked by various corporate and wealthy elitist factions. Plus even if you managed to stave off all of that in a new Constitution, you will get another one that will basically be ignored in a few years by the political and financial nomenklatura like our current one is now.

                  Reply ↓
                  1. Carla July 18, 2026 at 8:32 pm

                     @Hepativore — Are you familiar with New Albany, OH, the privately incorporated creation of Epstein and Les Wexner? It’s what you describe as “Perhaps you will even start to see little corporate-owned fiefdoms cropping up like OCP from RoboCop where the companies that run them have full legal autonomy from the rest of the US and absolute authority over their subjects.” Lucky ducks that we are, we have that in Ohio right now, and have had since Jeff Epstein and Les Wexner (who had NO IDEA what Epstein was up to… just NO IDEA) set it up in the early 1990’s. Check out Whitney Webb’s coverage of New Albany: https://unlimitedhangout.com/2026/03/investigative-reports/technate-ohio-new-albany/

                     Reply ↓
                     1. Hepativore July 18, 2026 at 10:07 pm

                        I have not heard of that particular case, but I have heard of things like the “California Forever” project and various proposed techbro-run “Smart Cities” which are basically like corporate dystopias straight out of a Phillip K. Dick novel.

                        The future of the US is probably going to be a combination of the Water Thief by Nicolas Lamar Soutter and Terry Gilliam’s Brazil while things continue to wind down in general.

                        Reply ↓
                        1. Mark Gisleson July 19, 2026 at 8:38 am

                           Replying to the thread in response to my call for a Constitutional Convention.

                           Yes, the hard right has been gaming this forever. They also gamed the war with Iran. The fact that the right has been thinking about this longer than we have is not a handicap and may in fact be an advantage.

                           Emphasis on everything starts with small local caucuses. For urban dwellers a hi-rise residential tower should hold several caucuses. At the initial stage, you should recognize almost everyone else in the room with you. That’s how caucuses work.

                           FORGET ABOUT THE ISSUES. Elect delegates you know to be decent people. A majority of decent delegates will do decent things.

                           Yes, truly evil people will try to suborn the process. This is cured by a suborned delegate going public. Those who go public are protected by “the mob.” Kill a whistleblower and we’ll start burning things down.

                           Because the truth is we’re on a path towards economiic entropy. Nothing gets better by itself, things get better when a lot of people work to make things better.

                           Not holding a Constitutional Convention because you’re afraid the Right will mandate free hand grenades for school kids is cowardly. FIGHT FOR THE ISSUES THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO YOU or someone else will fight for you and we’ve all seen what world champion mixed martial arts fighters the Democrats clearly are not.

                           We’re losing ground every day. Inaction only makes things worse.

                           Reply ↓
         8. ChatET July 18, 2026 at 4:51 pm

            I wish they would just follow the damn Constitution we have now. How can we expect anything from a new constitution convention to ever be used as intended. It will only codify the reduced democracy we have now.

            Reply ↓
   2. Glen July 18, 2026 at 7:56 pm

      Well, I’m finding myself doing something I never thought I would do – defending robber barons.

      Let’s lean hard into that “neo” because most of the original lot of robber barons had fortunes founded on building railroads, shipping lines, steel industries, oil companies, that sort of thing. It’s true that these giant monopolies ended up price fixing and resulted in the Sherman Anti-trust Act, but T is more of a born rich (he was a toddler millionaire) billionaire flim flam man. Comparing him to a Rockefeller or Carnegie is demeaning to what they actually accomplished.

      (Now I’m going to go rinse my mouth out …)

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 8:05 pm

         And before Rockefeller or Carnegie died, they made sure to plow a lot of money back into America in the form of libraries and the like so that people would remember them more kindly. It was what you did. Our present lot of monopolists are more likely to shut down all the libraries for their own profit.

         Reply ↓
10. thoughtfulperson July 18, 2026 at 8:38 am

    On the Iran war, Iran’s next moves: “Even though a blockade is an act of war, I am not sure they will attack the ships just “because blockade”. We’ll see in due course.”

    Another aspect as far as crude oil is the leverage (and strategic power) Iran achieved thus far in the war. Crude is fungible and the less that comes on the markets from any source moves the oil cliff and its impact on the usa closer. Thus NATO/Ukraine attacks on Russian oil refineries and crude shipping as well as the usa blockade of the straight both reduce oil to market. It seems to me that accelerates the oil cliff.

    If I am correct it seems to me these moves might feel good and appear like wins but in reality – strategically – such actions are loosing more pieces on the chessboard than they win.

    Thus, the u.s. blockade of the straight may win some short term propaganda points but in the medium term be just as helpful to Iranian straegic interests.

    Reply ↓
    1. amfortas July 18, 2026 at 5:15 pm

       regarding attacking us navy…wouldnt take much high explosive to damage the screws on a carrier such that it would need to be towed to a dry dock, somewhere(Crete?)…and the 5k crew evacuated(which Iran would put video of all over the intertubes…perhaps even offer humanitarian aid?…dropping stuffed pumpkins and falafal onto the deck?).
       the issue is delivery, of course. sonar, radar, point defense, etc.
       but i seem to remember, from a while back, that they might have chinese antiship hypersonics…and i remember some talk of underwater stealth drones.
       but all that miltech pron stuff makes my eyes roll(like so many things, these days).
       regardless…were i iran, that would be in my quiver….for when we go too far in our hubris(!?)

       Reply ↓
11. Ignacio July 18, 2026 at 8:40 am

    I really hope that TDS becomes a prevalent disease in the US. Yes I know that the only political alternative is similarly awful but come on. Trump is proto-fascism in the US. This was intended as a reply to flora’s comment above but something went wrong.

    Reply ↓
    1. flora July 18, 2026 at 8:51 am

       Thanks, Ignacio.
       T says he’s worried about being remembered like Herbert Hoover.
       If he keep all this up he could end up being remembered as a combination of both frm pres Herbert Hoover and frm Sen. Joseph McCarthy of the McCarthy Hearings. That would be a hella combination of the worst episodes in US political history. Presiding over wrecking the economy AND starting a political witch hunt.

       What a guy. /smh

       T really can’t think anymore, he’s lost his senses, imo.

       Reply ↓
    2. Carolinian July 18, 2026 at 9:08 am

       At one time Trump was merely an irritating rash but now that he has metastasized into life threatening cancer both chemo and radiation may be indicated. Bring on the TDS at the voting booth.

       We also need some MSM-DS since their la tee da coverage of the presidential lunatic make them accessories to lunacy.

       Reply ↓
       1. rowlf July 18, 2026 at 2:00 pm

          Remember years ago when the news media went after Vice President Dan Quayle? Why can’t the news media treat the current administration members the same way? Is the administration buying ad space?

          Reply ↓
          1. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 7:26 pm

             He’s got the media scared by threatening to yank licenses if reporters ask questions that he does not like. First thing he asks them is which organization they are from. Not only American reporters either. A reporter once asked him a question that he did not like so Trump starts asking him who he represents. So the guy says ABC News in Australia. Then Trump starts to make insinuations about taking action against Australia – all over a question that he did not like. Trump has the media cowed.

             Reply ↓
12. flora July 18, 2026 at 8:44 am

    re: Oracle’s credit rating drops to one level above junk

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. / ;)

    Reply ↓
    1. TimH July 18, 2026 at 11:30 am

       Perhaps Oracle will ask The Donald to bail them out (sorry, I mean get a 5% stake for free) under NatSec grounds.

       Reply ↓
13. Vikas July 18, 2026 at 9:13 am

    Iran War: Overnight attacks by Iran and the rhetoric are getting hotter and hotter. Yes, fog of war, but to me it looks like the Iranians are escalating faster in order to get inside the American decision loop ahead of the go/no go point for an invasion in hopes of deterring it….

    Not clear which parts of the desalination plant they hit, assuming they had capability for some precision.. that would clarify if its a signal or all-out war

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post authorJuly 19, 2026 at 3:09 am

       Yes, Iran displacing Trump in driving the OODA loop is important and I neglected to mention that.

       But Trump does so out of ego as opposed to strategy. He needs to be Colossus, astride the world, the moving force behind all events.

       Reply ↓
14. Otto Reply July 18, 2026 at 9:17 am

    Thanks for the Book of Jargon. Have bookmarked as a reference. Kinda reads like a finance version of Ambrose Bierce’s The Devil’s Dictionary.
    ECONOMY, n. Purchasing the barrel of whiskey that you do not need for the price of the cow that you cannot afford.

    Reply ↓
    1. Maxwell Johnston July 18, 2026 at 9:59 am

       All the entries are deliciously cynical and spot on, but these are my favorites:

       Bond – A promise to repay borrowed money with interest. The entire financial system rests on the idea that this promise is good.

       Breakeven – Where you neither win nor lose. Also where most traders eventually beg to get back to.

       CPI – Consumer Price Index. The official inflation number, assembled from a basket of goods that is periodically adjusted so the number behaves.

       Liquidity – The ability to sell without moving the price. Abundant when you don’t need it.

       Repo / Repurchase Agreement – Selling something with a promise to buy it back tomorrow at a slightly higher price. It’s a loan. Calling it a sale keeps it off certain balance sheets, which was rather the point.

       SWIFT – The messaging network banks use to move money internationally. Not money itself, just the instructions. Which is why cutting a country off from it is an act of financial war, and why several countries are now building their own.

       The entire list is written with a marvelous dry touch. Well worth a read. And accurate too, despite the dark humor.

       Reply ↓
       1. flora July 18, 2026 at 11:01 am

          Those are hilarious….and true! / :D

          Reply ↓
       2. Trees&Trunks July 18, 2026 at 12:55 pm

          Hudson’s J is for Junk Economics
          and Patrick Scheiner Wirtschaftsmärchen are two great books in the same spirit.

          Reply ↓
    2. Alice X July 18, 2026 at 11:23 am

       Brightened my day, as that is much the way I decipher the world.

       The only thing I invest in is something like a head of lettuce, which in Michigan presently seems to be a somewhat risky undertaking. :-/

       Reply ↓
15. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 9:18 am

    “Britons urged to take ‘small steps’ to prepare for potential national crises”

    This sounds like a good idea unfortunately. The reason I say that is because government have provided themselves inept in dealing with a real crisis so that people were thrown on their own resources. The Covid crisis has proved that already and the tea leaves are saying that they are not really preparing for the next crisis. Neoliberalism is gutting the whole idea of the public good meaning that when things go south, people will have to take care of themselves for the first few days or more until a government effort can be mounted. Personally I am one of these people that believe that the military should be tasked with being first responders and you see something like that with the National Guard in the US. Doesn’t help of course when you find in the US that your State national Guard has been sent to Saudi Arabia or Tierra del Fuego.

    Reply ↓
    1. Jeremy Grimm July 18, 2026 at 10:59 am

       Several years back, the u.s. included disaster relief as one of the major missions for the u.s. Army. SouthCom in particular was positioned as a source of disaster relief for South America. I do not recall anything resulting from disaster relief as a mission set, neither procurement nor action. I cannot imagine any country in today’s world being especially enthusiastic about receiving ‘disaster’ relief from u.s. military forces. After past DHS or ICE ‘help’, FEMA vaporous help, and National Guard uses for domestic Trump policy, I cannot imagine the Populace of any state or county in today’s u.s. being especially enthusiastic about receiving ‘disaster’ relief from u.s. government forces. I believe even the local police would receive lukewarm enthusiasm for their ‘help’.

       Reply ↓
       1. TimH July 18, 2026 at 11:34 am

          FEMA vaporous help

          Formaldehyde vapour…

          Reply ↓
          1. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 12:06 pm

             FEMA make work project; digging mass graves next to FEMA Re-education Centres.

             Reply ↓
       2. amfortas July 18, 2026 at 5:31 pm

          not to cheerlead that malign agency, but FEMA only just now left my county(and all surrounding) after cleaning out the stream and river beds after last july’s 4th of july floods.
          and by “cleaning out”, i mean removing tons and tons of brush and deadfall and such that impeded the flow-rate. they mulched it all in a giant woodchipper thing at our landfill(and others), and hauled it off.
          it was mostly contractors that did the work, of course(i talked to a great many of them over the last year)…and i glean that those companies will then bag and sell that mulch as a sort of gravy…i was forbidden from running off with any of it.
          FEMA also had another bunch running down all the dirt roads(theres at least 600 miles of dirt, here) and removing the excess that had built up over 40 years of storms…but that that storm had added to so much, that the county didnt have the wherewithal to maintain all that dirt road, any more.
          that dirt went into a great pile next to the dump, to be used as it fills.
          i asked my banker friend about the economic impact of their presence: they had several campgrounds with RV’s…and used many of the hunters camps…so the 2 lil hotels didnt get bidness, nor the numerous B’nB’s…but landowners got some grease…as did all the mechanics in town.
          hundreds of skidsteers and excavators with claws, and big trucks with a claw mounted on back, pulling just as big trailers, for to haul all that debris. all those broke down regularly(rugged country)…mechanic shop i favor told me that he made tens of thousands of dollars off repairs,after parts and labor.

          Reply ↓
16. pjay July 18, 2026 at 9:53 am

    – ‘The once and never America’ – Julian Macfarlane (Micael T)

    Wow. This was a bizarre article. Not because of Macfarlane’s history lesson showing that the US has been an expansionist empire from its origins. There is little to disagree with there. The bizarre element is that he chooses *Patrick Lawrence*, of all people, as a straw-man villain who supposedly erases this history because of a comment about the US becoming an empire after 1945. The offending article appeared in Consortium News a few days ago. I had read the article, because I read all of Patrick Lawrence’s articles. He’s one of my favorite contemporary commentators. So my first reaction was: what the hell? I went back and read it again to see if Macfarlane’s condemnation was warranted. My reaction was the same: what the actual hell?? Of all people to choose for this “erasure of history” tirade, why choose one of the best analysts of current events around? Has Lawrence ever given *any* indication, anywhere, that he would have denied any of the “imperialistic” events described in MacFarlane’s pre-1945 history, or even disagreed with his analysis? He goes on to make some relevant observations about the definition of “empire” in historical discussions, but associating Lawrence with his diatribe about erasing history is just… bizarre.

    I usually like MacFarlane’s blog, though occasionally he writes something out of left field. For me, this one was from Mars.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian July 18, 2026 at 10:05 am

       Lawrence is great. The line of attack you describe sounds wholly gratuitous.

       And of course the US started out as part of the British Empire but Lawrence is talking about the somewhat different version of empire that came about after WW2. The world wars discredited traditional colonialism although our doofus prez would love to revive it.

       Call Trump’s version the Chicken Hawk Empire.

       Reply ↓
       1. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 12:09 pm

          With the late Lindsey Graham as the Prince of Chickenhawks.

          Reply ↓
          1. Henry Moon Pie July 18, 2026 at 12:57 pm

             Now ambrit, ol’ Lindsey proudly served–as a JAG officer.

             Reply ↓
             1. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 5:07 pm

                Ouch! That last Acronym would be too close to Government Work for me!
                I’m wondering what Lindsey’s sister is finding out as she “tidies up” his office and “constituent” files.
                Be of safe inclinations.

                Reply ↓
             2. Retired Carpenter July 18, 2026 at 5:25 pm

                AKA as a family-blogging REMF.

                Reply ↓
                1. RA July 18, 2026 at 7:03 pm

                   I was a draftee infantry grunt who arrived “in country” in 1968, just after the big Tet offensive. I spent the year on a walking tour, “have gun, will travel”.

                   Around ten years ago I went to a pretty big unit reunion hosted in a hotel.

                   One afternoon I was walking down a hallway and saw a guy walking the other way. Then I noticed he had a hand-made badge on his shirt that read REMF. I stopped him and congratulated his proud honesty and support in an event that was mostly grunts. We had used the term negatively but probably also wished that we had been REMF’s.

                   Reply ↓
                   1. RA July 18, 2026 at 7:15 pm

                      For those not old enough to relate to – Have Gun Will Travel

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgvxu8QY01s

                      Reply ↓
    2. Lefty Godot July 18, 2026 at 11:58 am

       Julian is much better when he’s not going after other online commentators. It seemed like Larry Johnson was living rent-free in his head for a week or two, and those articles were a lot less interesting than his usual ones.

       Reply ↓
17. TomDority July 18, 2026 at 10:01 am

    “Fetterman warns he would leave Democratic Party if it turns its back on Israel.” The Hill (Kevin W).
    I think Fetterman should leave the Democratic party but, not for, as he says “if it turns its back on Israel.”
    No, he should leave the party for turning his back on his own sworn oath to uphold the constitution by abandoning his Article one duties among other back turning…supporting massive human rights violations well the list goes on with his perfected back seat quietude.
    I would like to get my money back for my donations made and, get some more back for the time and effort to clean off the adhesive residue from your cheap ass bumper stickers I paraded around for this shill.

    Reply ↓
    1. flora July 18, 2026 at 11:12 am

       Heck, I’d rather have Arlen Specter* back (rip) than Fetterman in the Senate seat. Specter only changed parties. / ;)

       * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arlen_Specter

       Reply ↓
       1. Henry Moon Pie July 18, 2026 at 12:19 pm

          Not too quick, Flora. Specter was assistant counsel on the Warren Commission and was the person who conjured up the “magic bullet” theory.

          Reply ↓
          1. Alice X July 18, 2026 at 2:56 pm

             Maybe Flora meant sh¡t rather than rip. Fetterman is such. I don’t assign benign agency unless and until I’m convinced of benign results.

             Reply ↓
       2. TomDority July 19, 2026 at 8:54 am

          Arlen Specter,
          Met with him and had lunch with the guy after meeting him at his office for increasing medical research funding – He liked the fact that I was a constituent of his and disliked all the lobbyists grabbing his time. I had come down to DC for an AEC conference and after drinking too much with the attendant hang-over in the morning walking toward the convention center I said to myself, why am I going to this AEC when I got all the museums, architecture, engineering and construction all around me to explore….the original model (3d) of the Sistine Chapel was on display where Michelangelo had made ceiling painting on it.. it was great to see this early introduction of 3D design work going on while the AEC was pushing the digital 3D design software and dotcom crap apps and vaporware that busted later on.
          Was invited by him for thing for pharma event where he was speaking, seamed everyone there were lobbyists vying for his time after spending the 500 for seats and lots more on auction fund raiser…. anyway, after his speech he walked straight over to my table and sat down next to me and we started talking and having a good time … and the lobbyists looking on .. their expressions were priceless…like who is this guy and why does he get Arlen’s time LOL…. I made comment on the massive flower arrangements on the tables and he said take as many as you want…so he had his team stuff my car full…my house smelled wonderful for a week after.
          You can call or write your reps and

          Reply ↓
18. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 10:05 am

    ‘perceptiondaily
    @perceptiondaily
    🇪🇺 BERLIN-PARIS — The two powers with no leverage just volunteered to lead diplomacy.
    📌 LOOK CLOSER: Qatar lost neutrality, Beijing’s channel is poisoned, Pakistan is out of road. Berlin and Paris step into the vacuum — but bring no back-channel Tehran trusts, no economic inducement under active bombing, and no US buy-in. A joint call without a mechanism is a press release, not diplomacy.’

    You know you are in trouble diplomatically when Macron & Merz show up to do their bit. That is why when the Russians are negotiating with the US over the Ukraine war, that they won’t allows those chuckleheads be present in even the same country where the negotiations are being held. They come out and demand a place at negotiations while they talk about stalling and even blowing up the negotiations themselves. The Iranians would be better off having Mormon missionaries knocking at their door than those two.

    Reply ↓
19. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 10:41 am

    ‘
    The Figen
    @TheFigen_
    Look at how this blind cat feels the sunlight coming through the window on its face. ❤️’

    Fell sorry for that poor cat. It still knows how to enjoy itself by moving its face across the sunlight so that the sunlight is almost stroking that cat’s face. Kitty needs a sun room.

    Reply ↓
20. Charles Carroll July 18, 2026 at 11:02 am

    “Manure piling up.”

    Does this make the US fertilizer independent and demonstrate another immunity from the effects of the closure of Hormuz?

    Reply ↓
    1. flora July 18, 2026 at 11:18 am

       One interesting bit in the article was noting that livestock manure is sometimes used as fertilizer on farm fields. That’s OK for some crops like corn or soy or wheat, but not a good idea for veg produce usually eaten raw. Then I think of the Crypto-lettuce explosive …. ah…. ‘effect’ and wonder if veg produce like lettuce or tomatoes grown with little regulation in this country or imported from other countries is using sprayed manure for fertilizer and improperly cleaning the said grown lettuce and other veg. Inquiring minds….

       Reply ↓
       1. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 12:17 pm

          I wonder about the methods used. We let our compost pile ferment for a year before putting it in growing beds. Icky side note, the birds and lizards love the pile for the flies and other bugs it produces. I have seen other insectivores at the pile over the years; moles, snakes, praying mantises, turtles and a few things that only come out at night.
          Stay safe. As we used to say in another context; Grow your own.

          Reply ↓
       2. Jason Boxman July 18, 2026 at 4:33 pm

          Livestock getting so juiced up on antibiotics, this sounds as bad as using waste water treatment plant sludge.

          Reply ↓
          1. Skookumchuck July 18, 2026 at 7:49 pm

             Well, here’s some truth for you. :)

             From 2000 to 2004 I lived in Iowa City where I was going through a Ph.D. program at the U of I. I regularly drove the 500 or so miles between Iowa City and our farm in eastern South Dakota where my gracious wife was keeping things working.

             What I remember most about that drive was the fact that starting in western Minnesota and continuing through Iowa it was one hog confinement after another, every one of them with a manure pond the size of a good lake. In the summer, driving a pickup with no A/C, I had ample opportunity to sample the diversity of cuisine the hogs were eating.

             The flies were biblical, the smell apocalyptic. But as they said, “The smell of money, my friend.”

             Reply ↓
    2. Bugs July 18, 2026 at 11:55 am

       Like other speculative mania, there was once a manure mania, mid 19th century. It became so nuts that the US passed a law that’s still on the books that allows it to claim any land across the world that has a valuable supply of guano on it. Don’t tell Trump.

       Reply ↓
       1. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 12:11 pm

          Is that the origin of the phrase: “Bat s–t crazy?”
          Enquiring financiers want to know.

          Reply ↓
21. AG July 18, 2026 at 11:06 am

    re: ants problem

    We had a problem with ants. They eventually entered the flat. We did try to replace the earth in the pots on the balcony etc. Nothing helped.

    So I go to the usual drugstore. Turns out ant poison/traps has been banned by the EU 2 years ago. I had to get ´em at a special store where only one dude is allowed to sell them. He was nice. He made no fuss. 20 bucks for 6 traps.

    Alternative is only online shops. Everyhwere else they have disappeared.

    But before completing your online order you are obliged to have a short phone conversation about – I dunno – how important ants are?

    The world is going nuts…

    After 2 days the traps seem to work. No ants in the salad any more.
    Dude said its the heat and the water issue.
    I thought so myself. No other explanation. Since nothing else changed.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post authorJuly 18, 2026 at 11:57 am

       Wowsers. At least you got it solved. I was going to suggest boric acid but I see it is not straightforward to get that in the EU either.

       Reply ↓
    2. flora July 18, 2026 at 12:11 pm

       There’s always diatomaceous earth as an ant repellent, or repellant.

       https://todayshomeowner.com/pest-control/guides/diatomaceous-earth-for-ants-complete-diy-guide/

       I’ve used it. It worked. The ant conga line into the kitchen stopped. / ;) ymmv.

       Reply ↓
       1. flora July 18, 2026 at 12:23 pm

          adding: checking online, it looks like diatomaceous earth is readily available in the EU.

          Reply ↓
          1. AG July 18, 2026 at 6:41 pm

             We figure it´s like this:
             We have the ants and the neighbours below us have them (that´s 2nd floor). 1st not.
             But when you follow the “conga line” you would realize they march upstairs to the balcony above ours. That´s the top floor of the building.
             So the cause lies there.

             Unfortunately the above neighbour lost her husband 10 years ago and ever since there are some matters she is not willing/able to take care of. In a way her mind is wandering off from time to time.
             Checking the balcony for ants is one of those matters.

             It´s also the reason why we are fighting pigeons. Every year they are trying hard to build their nest and then cause a huge mess on our balcony and the one below. They are lured by the chaos on the balcony above which we cannot change.

             So from time to time we have to get serious with those birds.
             Alas, they too are protected by German law. You cannot just get “rid of them”.
             Anybody who has fought pigeons knows their lethal patience.
             They can drive you insane.

             Reply ↓
    3. Trees&Trunks July 18, 2026 at 1:03 pm

       If you have black ants, try to attract red ants and let them hash it out.

       Reply ↓
       1. Irrational July 18, 2026 at 1:28 pm

          We have them in the garage roof (literally in the insulation between the wood ceiling on the inside and the foils/films making it waterproof. Above is a green roof. No sign of the little buggers anywhere, so we don’t know where they feed (not on the green roof). Professional pest control has not helped so they are happily eating their way through the roof.

          Reply ↓
          1. ChatET July 18, 2026 at 5:02 pm

             If you want to get rid of carpenter ants you have to dry the wood. New roof or whatever, carpenter ants can only chew on wet wood.

             Reply ↓
       2. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 5:17 pm

          Down here in the Rancid Underbelly of the North American Deep South, we cultivate black ant colonies whenever we encounter them. These invasive fire ants are true pests. Their bites are very painful and often give rise to pustules.

          The most effective approach is baiting rather than spraying, as sprays only kill visible ants and do not eliminate the colony. Key methods include:

          Borax-based baits: Mix borax with sugar, peanut butter, or water to create liquid, paste, or protein baits. Worker ants carry the bait back to the colony, eventually killing the queen and other ants.
          .
          Diatomaceous earth: Acts as a natural barrier by damaging the ants’ exoskeletons.
          Vinegar or lemon juice sprays: Disrupt scent trails and repel ants.
          Essential oils: Peppermint, tea tree, or other oils can deter ants.
          Seal entry points: Use caulk and weatherstripping to prevent re-entry.
          Eliminate moisture and food sources: Keep surfaces clean, store food in airtight containers, and fix leaks.
          .
          Avoid using bleach as a primary solution; it only kills ants on contact and does not address the colony. Patience is key, as results from baiting typically appear within 2 to 7 days

          Reply ↓
    4. BlueMoose July 18, 2026 at 1:57 pm

       We tried dried laurel leaves. Seems to have done the trick (so far).

       Reply ↓
    5. Rory Rooney July 18, 2026 at 2:21 pm

       Something that worked for me with outdoor ant hills: corn meal finely ground into dust, and scattered by the ant hill. Supposedly the drones gather it and bring it to the queen and to feed her. The queen eats it; it causes an expansion within her until she explodes, and the ants move on. All I can say is that it has worked for me. Maybe it could be scattered with the same effect on the paths that the indoor ants seem to follow.

       Reply ↓
    6. AG July 18, 2026 at 5:59 pm

       Appreciate all your advice!

       I will keep the info.
       One never knows what EU is up to next.

       p.s. The insect affair isn’t over. My bigger problem are actually moths in clothes.
       They have turned out to be a permanent/recurring serious cause of concern.
       I don’t know if this is due to climate change.

       I can´t keep open the window (rather practical with the heat).

       And after years of DIY struggle I had to turn to using “darwin wasps”(?).
       The ones laying their eggs into the other eggs.
       But those are alive. So you cannot just buy them in a shop. They would die there waiting in the shelf.
       Again: You must order them online.

       It amounts to 100+ bucks every season to provide a complete cycle.

       Really annoying.
       Compared to that ants are fun.

       Initially I was completely oblivious. So I left for a longer period and guess what had happened to one of the two persians.
       The second one I was able to save bringing it to an Afghan shop. The shopowner extermely nice gentleman wanted to retire. But he doesn´t find anyone taking over. And he doesn´t want to see the place closed either.

       Crazy world.

       Reply ↓
       1. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 7:39 pm

          ‘I can´t keep open the window (rather practical with the heat)’

          What about using window screen mesh? Sorta like this-

          https://www.screenwarehouse.com.au/shop/flyscreens/flyscreen-window/aluminium-flyscreen-windows-various-mesh-avail/

          They are effective against moths and flies and you just slot them into your windows.

          Reply ↓
22. Verifyfirst July 18, 2026 at 11:22 am

    I have been wondering why Iran does not seem to be attacking the Saudis much at the moment–Mr. Perera thinks it is because the Saudi’s shut down the US using their base there, but maybe it is also because of Pakistan?

    https://substack.com/@shanakaanslemperera/note/c-296849599

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-worries-about-being-drawn-into-us-iran-conflict-after-houthis-attack-2026-07-16/

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-kuwait-discuss-expanded-defence-pact-sources-say-2026-07-17/

    Reply ↓
23. Jason Boxman July 18, 2026 at 11:52 am

    It seems like the US is really getting wrecked. Meanwhile,

    BREAKING: Iran has formally withdrawn from the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with the United States.

    Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced that Tehran is immediately suspending all obligations under the agreement, arguing Washington had already abandoned its own commitments. He said Iran’s priority is now the country’s defense rather than diplomacy.

    Gharibabadi also ruled out any renewed engagement with Washington, declaring that Iran will not enter negotiations with the United States under any circumstances, according to Tasnim.

    https://x.com/TheIranianzg3z/status/2078501348727751011?s=20

    And infrastructure swapping is full effecct

    Kuwait says second power and water plant hit in Iranian attack

    Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity and Water said another power generation and desalination plant was struck Saturday, sparking a fire and forcing several generating units offline as a precaution.

    The strike follows Friday’s reported hit on the Shuaiba desalination complex, marking the second attack on Kuwait’s power and water infrastructure in two days.

    Emergency plans were activated, and residents were urged to reduce electricity use from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. while repairs continue.

    https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2078371958257803349?s=20

    Reply ↓
24. Jason Boxman July 18, 2026 at 12:08 pm

    From Thousands of Google workers demand layoff protections amid AI boom in petition to CEO

    This is cry me a river land, these workers are probably making at least 200-300k a year, plus stock. Alphabet stock be rocking these past years.

    Dan Freedman, Google software engineer and Alphabet union member who works on AI tools for designers, was among several employees at the press conference who raised concerns about AI’s impact on workers’ jobs. After AI was added to his job requirements, he feared he wasn’t using it enough and that it could replace him. He recoils with anxiety when he hears about layoffs at the company. “I have to wonder if I’m next,” he said.

    All (much?) of what Google offers anymore is trash. It isn’t like any of these people are saving the world. Imagine if they exercised their worker power to tackle dark patterns, for example.

    No, it’s just about the money. Google employees can get bent.

    Reply ↓
25. ilsm July 18, 2026 at 12:20 pm

    SpaceX Starship Flt 13 abort. Musk gave the problem notice.

    Good news the ship not burned up. The abort is similar to airline, one engine down no take off.

    Bad news: no data on downstream potential faults. One data point rocket engines

    Real bad news: possibly 4 unique failures implying 4 different fixes. Maybe 20 July retry optimistic.

    In terms of mission (end to end/safe recovery) more engines better. In terms of launch reliability fewer engines better.

    Reply ↓
    1. Henry Moon Pie July 18, 2026 at 1:02 pm

       And maybe all these fancy ideas about space exploration are unrealistic as long as we’re still using Werner von Braun’s Nazi technology.

       Reply ↓
       1. Socal Rhino July 18, 2026 at 4:24 pm

          An interesting idea I read a while back was that the miniature nuclear engines Russia developed for its new missile (the one that can cruise indefinitely and strike from any direction) could also be adapted to space vessels.

          Reply ↓
          1. ambrit July 18, 2026 at 5:36 pm

             The idea of using small nuclear engines for Earth to Space launches was looked into in the Fifties and shelved due to understandable concerns about nuclear contamination of the areas around the launch sites when one of them blows up on launch. (With the present state of technology, it is always a case of when, not if.)
             If I remember correctly, I read that the Russians consider the atomic engine to be part of the payload.
             There was NERVA back in the sixties.
             All things atomic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_thermal_rocket
             As Dr. Praetorius is said to have muttered just before the disaster: “There are some things Man was not meant to know.”
             An example drawn from a compendium of cautionary tales:

             “Airfare and hotel costs: $200

             Bribing the museum guards to let you meet the curator: $150, and a little bit of sanity.

             Purchasing scripts from the curator: $23.42 apiece, and probably permanent traumatization.

             Suitcase with a secret compartment: $75.

             Tricking the high school drama department into performing The King in Yellow: Priceless.

             There are some things man was not meant to know.

             For everything else, there’s HasturCard. (c)”

             Stay safe, protect your sanity.

             Reply ↓
          2. AG July 18, 2026 at 6:03 pm

             Which is why there was initial talk about Russian deep space travel.
             Like in those old scifi movies.

             Reply ↓
    2. AG July 18, 2026 at 2:00 pm

       thanks!

       Reply ↓
26. XXYY July 18, 2026 at 1:44 pm

    A Deadly Ebola-Like Virus Is Spreading. Are We Ready? SciTech Daily

    I’m not sure if the writer is trying to be funny here, or what:

    Bundibugyo virus, a rare but potentially deadly infection now driving a growing outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and exposing how poorly prepared health systems can be for diseases that receive little attention between emergencies.

    As we now know, this sentence pretty much describes the entire world.

    The fortunate thing about Bundibugyo (if I’m not struck dead for using the word fortunate in this context) is that it’s transmitted via fluids from the infected person, and is not airborne.

    For one thing, this is the only transmission mechanism that the CDC understands or acknowledges, so hopefully they will be more of a friend and less of an enemy then they were with COVID. For another, I think such diseases are easier to isolate, with traditional infection control measures actually helping a lot.

    Hoping for a good and fast outcome to this outbreak in any case.

    Reply ↓
    1. Gretzn July 18, 2026 at 4:40 pm

       Unless somebody MAKES it airborne.

       Reply ↓
27. raspberry jam July 18, 2026 at 2:32 pm

    I expect we are shortly to resume intense kinetics that include Israel on the Iran front based purely on the language tenor change in Israel media over the last week. This isn’t a really tightly coherent update on any one single thing because right now things are overly dynamic. But some details in the news that stood out to me:

    – US refeulers are going back but they can’t be based at Ben Gurion, instead they’re going to military bases. (link Times of Israel but was originally reported by Axios which is linked in that piece)
    – Iran has told Hezbollah to prepare for a resumption of hostilities (same as above)
    – US State dept issued a travel warning this morning for northern Israel (same as above)
    – recent polling in Israel showing 83% of the respondents did not approve of Haredi parties in the government (link, Jerusalem Post) and 61% want the Haredi draft exemption laws annullled (link)
    – the Knesset has fully dissolved until the election has concluded. Much of September and October will be holiday season and businesses will also be closed

    I expect the kino within Israel to be focused in the north on expelling the IDF from the yellow line. I do not know enough about the actual government/continuity/state of exception laws to know what happens when that is declared when the government is out. Lots of opinion pieces in Hebrew media last week (the Conflicts Forum blog had some in their weekly roundup) discussing that Netanyahu needs the war to resume to stay in power. So there is probably some form of emergency cabinet that will meet. But this will collide with the ongoing pushback from the IDF about expanding the war.

    Netanyahu looks very weak and ill. No clear successor from within Likud. Some of the opinion pieces are claiming the Netanyahu families are legally changing their names. The ongoing collapse in daily rule of law within Israel continues too – not ‘merely’ between the settlers and the Palestinians but crazy gang warfare/crime family type stuff that before was contained by the state institutions. I can’t find the explicit reference now, might be in one of the links above, but a poll this week showed 28% of Israelis were considering leaving (or someone in their family was) if Netanyahu was re-elected.

    Reply ↓
    1. Alice X July 18, 2026 at 2:50 pm

       Thank you!

       Reply ↓
    2. ACF July 18, 2026 at 3:30 pm

       Thank you, I really value your on the ground insight

       Reply ↓
    3. flora July 18, 2026 at 6:25 pm

       Thank you very much, raspberry jam, for these on-the-ground reports.

       Reply ↓
28. raspberry jam July 18, 2026 at 3:38 pm

    It’s been a very eventful few weeks in the AI space and I wanted to share some thoughts that I haven’t seen much coverage on yet here.

    This past week another Chinese open weight model was released with extremely impressive performance benchmarks, Kimi-K3. This follows GLM-5.3 a few weeks back. Both of them are benchmarking on par or better than the latest US frontier models at a fraction of the cost. This is coming after the huge debacle where two of the latest US models were blocked by executive order from being used by foreign nationals and so they were blocked from being deployed at all for about three weeks (Anthropic’s Mythos and Fable models).

    At the time the EO went out about Fable, OpenAI was also launching their latest models (Sol) which did not score as high or create a big enough splash to be prevented from going public because too powerful (Mythos) or too dangerous to be used by evil foreigners (Fable) and this was before they backed off the imminent IPO. The combination of the Apple lawsuit, Anthropic’s Claude Code dominating the revenue across all frontier labs with no OAI competiton, and the flop of Sol against first Anthropic and now the cheap Chinese models is probably the death knell of the OAI IPO.

    This, I think, is the context that the 5% stake offer that Altman attempted to float to the government should be taken in. The news of K3 is damning for the entire business model of OAI but also possibly a critical hit to Anthropic (although for now they have Claude Code, which is additional application on top of the LLM itself, which creates a lot of revenue). Anthropic doesn’t need a 5% stake by the government to stay afloat. But they might need an EO that makes it a sanctionable offense on state security grounds (or some insane bs) to use the cheap Chinese models. Even Silicon Valley startups are shifting to the cheaper Chinese models.

    Reply ↓
    1. TJBuff July 18, 2026 at 4:00 pm

       Ed Zitron makes a fairly convincing case that if OpenAI goes down, it takes everybody but Google and Microsoft with it.

       Reply ↓
       1. raspberry jam July 18, 2026 at 4:59 pm

          I think Zitron has the general arc of things right but is over his skis in most respects. I take his predictions with a lot of salt. I am, of course, biased, as I work in the field, but I am not selling subscriptions when I comment here so I think it balances out. :)

          There is a very interesting potential though if an EO against Chinese open source models goes though: it opens the door for a similar order against Linux, something Microsoft has been after for (almost) decades. This would be the end of the US software industry as a global force (but to be honest, this may also be the ultimate endgame in a world where cheap tokens mean everyone rolls their own custom-built software for their very specific needs instead of trying to adapt Windows + expensive off the shelf applications).

          It’s also bs because it’s unenforceable legally (it can only hold as long as there is sinophobia about IP theft or war sanctions on businesses caught using them). It’s bad news for the hyperscalers long term because it drives more business onprem or self-hosted. That doesn’t mean Microsoft wouldn’t try to make it happen. It would be very interesting to see the forces that array on which side of that particular battle.

          Reply ↓
          1. flora July 18, 2026 at 6:47 pm

             re: it opens the door for a similar order against Linux, something Microsoft has been after for (almost) decades.”

             So, Linux is bad, unless it’s the MS knockoff of Linux.
             This is hilarious considering MS is using its own version of Linux as a backend distro to its Azure processes.

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azure_Linux

             The apple does not fall far from the tree. (Those in the business long enough know exactly what I’m a talkin’ about.)

             Reply ↓
             1. Alice X July 18, 2026 at 11:29 pm

                Ha!

                Reply ↓
             2. caucus99percenter July 19, 2026 at 12:17 am

                “Embrace, extend, extinguish.”

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend,_and_extinguish

                Reply ↓
          2. flora July 18, 2026 at 6:48 pm

             re: it opens the door for a similar order against Linux, something Microsoft has been after for (almost) decades.”

             So, Linux is bad, unless it’s the MS knockoff of Linux.
             This is hilarious considering MS is using its own version of Linux as a backend distro to its Azure processes.

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azure_Linux

             The apple does not fall far from the tree. (Those in the business long enough know exactly what I’m a talkin’ about. See IE vs Netscape for example.)

             Reply ↓
             1. flora July 18, 2026 at 6:50 pm

                Sorry for the double post.

                Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman July 18, 2026 at 4:31 pm

       Is the cost per token not operative in the real world? At an employer I know they’re using it for any/every task possible, and most of these things a junior employee could do, if anyone ever hired entry level employees anymore, which isn’t the case. And the junior would probably be much cheaper than the token cost.

       I’m still waiting for the bottom to fall out due to cost.

       Reply ↓
       1. raspberry jam July 18, 2026 at 5:19 pm

          well no the cost per token is operative in the real world, that is why the release of Kimi-K3 and GLM-5.2 is such a big deal right now. Consider:

          – Claude Sonnet 5
          – cost per 1 million input tokens no cache: $2
          – cost per 1 million output tokens: $10
          – Claude Fable 5
          – cost per 1 million input tokens no cache: $10
          – cost per 1 million output tokens: $50
          – GPT-5.6-Sol
          – cost per 1 million input tokens no cache: $5
          – cost per 1 million output tokens: $30
          – GLM-5.2
          – cost per 1 million input tokens no cache: $1.4
          – cost per 1 million output tokens: $4.4
          – Kimi K3
          – cost per 1 million input tokens no cache: $3
          – cost per 1 million output tokens: $15

          I use GLM-5.2 in my OpenCode harness and it’s on par with Sonnet in most cases developing with Typescript and Go and doing spec-kit based workflows for research. I am going to spend some time with Kimi-K3 this weekend to see how it holds up against Opus/Fable. You can see by the sheer scale of difference in output token costs this is a huge deal.

          Reply ↓
29. nycTerrierist July 18, 2026 at 3:59 pm

    to mgl: lovely shot of the egrets!

    Reply ↓
30. Tom Stone July 18, 2026 at 4:06 pm

    i was surprised to learn that COMMUNISTS!!! have once again infiltrated every aspect of American Society.
    I was under the impression that they had all retired and were living comfortable on their FBI pensions.

    Reply ↓
    1. Lefty Godot July 18, 2026 at 4:48 pm

       As with movies and fiction in 21st century America, there’s no originality or creativity left in the storytelling we get fed, even the political storytelling. Just as the dumb 1960s Marvel comics and 1970s action/SF films have been granted an infinite life, we’re seeing the McCarthyite fictions of 1950 or even the older Red Scare stories of 1920 recycled for current audiences. It really is a degenerate era, in multiple ways, that we inhabit now.

       Reply ↓
31. amfortas July 18, 2026 at 4:25 pm

    came across this, seemed like a pretty good overview.
    i like both Vlahos a lot.
    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/navy-blockade-iran/

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 8:01 pm

       That’s a damn good link, Amf. Thanks. So at the end of this blockade, it may be that the US Navy will be eventually broken because of the long time they were kept on station there – both ships and people. And if the US Navy has only about 180 effective ships, then according to that article only about 60 of them are really deployable at any one time. Kinda like with the F-35 where if you have 100 of them deployed it sounds impressive. Until you think that only about 25 of them can get off the ground at any one time. Not bad for a trillion dollar budget. /sarc

       Reply ↓
    2. Alice X July 18, 2026 at 11:51 pm

       ;-/ it seems the empire can still pile in on one area

       for now woe be us and them

       Reply ↓
       1. The Rev Kev July 19, 2026 at 12:12 am

          Trouble is that those ships are getting worn out and will require extensive overhaul and maintenance when they finally return home. And after such a long deployment, a lot of those sailors and marines will be reconsidering their career futures. Trump won’t care because he will be gone by the time those chickens come home to roost.

          Reply ↓
32. Jason Boxman July 18, 2026 at 4:43 pm

    Green light for deeper escalation?

    ‘Americans don’t take kindly to Americans getting killed,’ says retired US general (Al Jazeera)

    There seems to have been somewhat of a gradual increase in the pressure on the Iranians, retired US General Mark Kimmitt tells Al Jazeera

    “I think at this point, when you’re starting to send American troops back home in body bags, President Trump is not going to take kindly to that. So I would expect to see a significant number of raids, more so than just the tit for tat that we’ve been seeing over the past seven days,” he said via video link from Washington, DC.

    The death of two US soldiers could “lessen the pressure on President Trump he said, adding that although there will be some that ask if it is worth it to lose American soldiers, there will be others, “probably in the majority, that say this demonstrates who we’re fighting and why we’re fighting”.

    “Americans don’t take kindly to Americans getting killed,” he said.

    Kimmitt predicts that fighting will probably move “further inland” as the US will plan to hit tertiary targets following its strikes along the Strait of Hormuz.

    Reply ↓
    1. Jeremy Grimm July 18, 2026 at 5:41 pm

       “’Americans don’t take kindly to Americans getting killed,’ he said.”
       I am not sure how to interpret this statement. I thought I read that the Iranians were wary of doing something like sinking a u.s. aircraft carrier because the loss of so many American servicemen would tend to generate a rally round the flag like that triggered by the Japanese sinking of the Battleship in Hawaii. I also recall one explanation for the continued presence of u.s. troops in South Korea, was to act as insurance that their sacrifice would assure that the u.s would come in to help defend South Korea against an attack from North Korea. However, the u.s. government took pains to hide the number of casualties and dead resulting from the wars with Iraq and Afghanistan. My sense of Trump’s war with Iran is that it is not very popular with the American Populace, probably much less popular than any of the other past war the u.s. has provoked or started. I would think a boatload of body bags coming home from Iran, to say nothing of a small army of maimed and wounded servicemen, would do little to commend a “Green light for deeper escalation?” Hegseth said of deaths of u.s servicemen: “Their sacrifice only stiffens our resolve.” [ https://x.com/PeteHegseth/status/2078551114971021610 ]

       Is your comment similarly suggesting that the retired general in your Al Jazeera except, and Pete Hegseth in the quote I referenced — were in error — although there seem to be indications there is a “green light” for deeper escalation very much in spite of what I expect would be the likely push-back from the American Populace?

       I believe significant losses from a land invasion of Iran would greatly anger the American Populace for its plainly wanton and stupid waste of American lives to the greater glory of Trump.

       Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev July 18, 2026 at 7:50 pm

       Dead Americans can be very useful it seems. Back in about ’65 in Vietnam, this young officer saw how at this bar that American “contractors” were pleased when a bunch of American troops got killed. They said it proved to the South Vietnamese government that American help was serious and so was well worth the US getting a “black eye” – their words, not mine – from time to time.

       Reply ↓
       1. Jeremy Grimm July 18, 2026 at 8:32 pm

          Similarly, dead Americans can be very useful proving u.s. resolve to Israel.

          Reply ↓
    3. frank July 18, 2026 at 9:33 pm

       Iranians don’t take kindly to Iranians being killed.

       Reply ↓
    4. albrt July 19, 2026 at 12:14 am

       I was a troop. I got out in 2002 when it became clear that American foreign policy was going to be 100% war crimes and terrorism by Americans against anybody who didn’t kneel. The Bushbama administration is now in its 7th term and that hasn’t changed at all.

       The troops today are getting what they signed up for. Sorry, but that’s just how it is. I have way more empathy for the ever-growing population of mentally ill homeless people downtown (many of whom are veterans).

       And I honestly don’t think the folks in Trumplandia have any more empathy for the troops than I do, unless their kid happens to be one of those killed.

       Reply ↓
    5. ISL July 19, 2026 at 10:05 am

       Dear General Kimmit: Unless they are killed by the IDF.

       Reply ↓
33. Tom Stone July 18, 2026 at 4:55 pm

    I once again took a look at Oracle’s finances and those of OAI, keeping in mind what’s coming out of discovery in the copyright violation lawsuits.
    I don’t think that even today’s Supreme Court would rule that what OAI, META and the rest have done is “Fair Use”.
    Any ruling made will be appealed, that’s the nature of the system.
    However, any ruling that calls out the big boys for copyright infringement may be enough to pop the bubble, appeal or not.
    Because these are “Vibe Values”, the “Value” of LLM’s is based on a narrative, NOT income or profits.
    And that narrative has been losing steam while the counter narrative of “Show me the MONEY” is taking hold.
    Mid September is my guess, the legal process is slow and it takes a little while for a counter narrative to gain traction.
    There’s going to be some epic whining from Sam Altman and Larry Ellison and it will be music to my ears.

    Reply ↓