Dear patient readers,
In lieu of an Iran war post, you are getting extra Links with an Iran War section. The short version of the state of play is Trump has not launched his widely-expected attack, claiming Iran is negotiating. Iran has not confirmed; if I were Iran, I would deny right before the market opening on Monday. Iran is also continuing its attacks even though for the moment the US has paused. Netanyahu is coming to Washington for Lindsey Graham’s wake next week. It is possible that the latest Trump pullback was to buy another week to finalize plans with Israel.
It is inconceivable that Iran and the US can agree on even a skimpy MOU-type agreement. Iran is expected to further upped its bar in light of the MOU failure and the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz control, as well as other US offenses like not returning any of Iran’s frozen funds. Professor Mohamed Marandi has stated any new deal will include cessation of hostilities in Yemen and Gaza. Iran is sure to require US performance on delivering frozen funds before getting out of bed.
And of course Iran is not ceding control of Strait of Hormuz.
Ancient ape fossil in Egypt challenges the story of human origins Science Daily (Kevin W)
Contagious Cancer Found in North American Catfish Wired (resilc)
Scientists Uncover Lost ‘Golden Age’ of Languages That Ended 1,000 Years Ago 404 Media
5 Raw Quotes From America’s Largest Raw-Milk Dairy Owner ProPublica (Robin K)
#COVID-19/Pandemics
U.S. Measles Case Count Breaks Record Associated Press
Ebola is gaining momentum in another part of the Democratic Republic of Congo, where escalating violence is hampering efforts to find patients and contain the virus https://t.co/63QflRieD1
— Bloomberg (@business) July 25, 2026
Climate/Environment
Even camels can’t cope: Africa’s ships of the desert hit by rising temperatures BBC
Global sea-surface temperatures just reached their 50th consecutive record hot day and are expected to continue to rise for another month.
This is so far beyond 'bonkers' (technical climate science term) that the Climate 8-ball has decided to start drinking early today. pic.twitter.com/UACDjQAhy5
— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) July 22, 2026
Gob·smack·ing /GAHB-smack-ing/ (adjective)
Definition: When subsurface El Niño anomaly map Legend needs to be increased to +9C/+16°F above climatology to measure said Godzilla El Niño event. #elnino #insaneinthemembrane https://t.co/oqkdzgtQZX pic.twitter.com/JiYG12V3ur— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 23, 2026
Stranded houseboats and grounded cruise ships: Europe’s rivers are shrinking amid heat and drought CNN
Climate crisis-driven heat ‘sucking soils dry’ as extreme drought hits Europe Guardian
National Drought Group steps up response as latest heatwave impacts water supplies and nature Farming UK
NOAA has categorized the ongoing marine heatwave in the Mediterranean as a Category 4, extreme marine heatwave.
Sea surface temperatures are exceeding 5°C (9°F) above normal in several parts of the Mediterranean Sea, with water temperatures now reaching 31°C (88°F). This… pic.twitter.com/4A2EKus9oE
— Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) July 21, 2026
Japan records first ‘cruelly hot day’ as temperatures pass 40C Independent
Global Warming Unmakes Winter in the US West Inside Climate News
China?
China announces live fire drills in Taiwan Strait Reuters
Chinese chip stocks dive as overvaluation defies Beijing’s rescue Asia Times (Kevin W)
China Coast Guard Reports Third Clash With Philippines This Week Bloomberg
Japan
US warns against excessive yen volatility, calls for BOJ rate hikes Reuters
Tokyo rebuts China’s assertion remote Japan island in Pacific is a rock Japan Today
US and Japan clash over meltdown liability in $40bn nuclear power deal Financial Times
India
In India, fear has switched sides Aljazeera
India rejects Pakistan’s ‘baseless’ claims at Asean, says Indus Waters Treaty to remain on hold FirstPost
India’s Quiet Strategy to Challenge China at the Strait of Malacca Brandon Weichert
Southeast Asia
Thailand presses on with Cambodia border fence Bangkok Post
Africa
O Canada
Canada will do whatever it takes in trade war with US, says Carney AlArabiya
Trump Tries to Blow Up Canada Bridge Deal After Opening Ceremony Drama New Republic
South of the Border
What a US war with Cuba would really look like Responsible Statecraft (resilc)
Trump 2.0 is Backing Bolivia’s Militarized Crackdown on Dissent Inkstick
European Disuion
Europe Loses LNG Bidding War to Asia WION
Europe Heads Into Winter With Its Weakest Gas Cushion In 15 Years OilPrice
Trump vows to investigate EU over fining of US tech companies BBC (Kevin W)
Chaotic sanctions negotiations expose cracks in EU front versus Russia Euronews. BWAHAHA
The sound of the new German megalomania Overton via machine translation (resilc)
Food price fears after Europe’s heatwave destroys estimated €2bn of crops AOL
Spain prepares for 47C heatwave as holiday destinations face brutal temperatures Independent
Ireland urged to put pressure on Germany over pro-Palestinian activist’s trial Guardian (Colonel Smithers)
Old Blighty
Omnibus wankers and Britain’s only pensioner Mic Wright (Colonel Smithers)
Israel v. The Resistance
Israelis Continue To Show Just How Psychotic They Are Kim Iversen, YouTube
Israeli Banks Threaten to Cut Off Palestinian Economy, Deepening Crisis New York Times
Israeli ministers lead mass Al-Aqsa Mosque raid Middle East Eye
“I SEE ISRAEL DISAPPEARING AS A JEWISH STATE” – Col. Larry Wilkerson YouTube (resilc)
Israel carries out blasts across south Lebanon despite ‘ceasefire’ deal Aljazeera
* * * America Knows Nukes. It Just Can’t Build Them Anymore. Tell that to the Saudis Sonar 21
Iran War
Iran reports no new US attacks as Gulf tensions remain high Aljazeera (live feed)
Trump Seethes as Iran War Spirals Anew With No End in Sight Bloomberg
#Iran FM Araghchi says Iran will not accept a ceasefire until its demands regarding Strait of Hormuz are met. He clarified that the issue is not a lack of mediators, noting Pakistan & Qatar continue to relay messages, but rather US approach, which he stated "must be corrected." pic.twitter.com/Ygj74DJDoK
— Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) July 24, 2026
BREAKING: China directly rejects Trump's latest Truth Social claim that Xi told him China would not sell weapons to Iran under any circumstances, saying "as a comprehensive strategic partner, China strongly supports Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty, security, and national…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) July 24, 2026
Iran’s Kurds in Iraq: a deferred front on Tehran’s border NoonPost
The Revolutionary Guard issues a warning: Immediately stay away from an area within a 500-meter radius of the locations where US forces are secretly stationed Rezistance (Ruben N)
This is particularly funny since the UK has pretty much no navy:
A White House official confirms the U.S. and U.K want to convene the Strait of Hormuz confernece next week https://t.co/hGxa83A2h1
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 24, 2026
Arrests, denials and missing images: Gulf states’ response to Iranian strikes France24 (Ruben N)
NASA's FIRMS satellite imagery now shows a significant thermal anomaly at the Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery, consistent with a major fire in the area following the reported Yemeni missile strikes.
Smoke columns continue to rise over Jizan, Saudi Arabia, hours after the reported… pic.twitter.com/tFp7uTESQP
— The Hormuz Report (@HormuzReport) July 25, 2026
Ferocious Iran strikes hit US bases; Trump hesitates on ‘massive attack’ threat | Janta Ka Reporter YouTube
Lloyd’s closes Strait of Hormuz by threat to invalidate marine insurance if Iran is paid for transit.
One consequence of the wars in Ukraine and Iran will be Global South shipping insurance permanently leaving Lloyd’s for Asian underwriters. https://t.co/srtwZME88f
— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) July 24, 2026
Syraqistan
Pakistan army chief vows to press on with operations against militancy in Balochistan Arab News
‘Collapsed’: Roadblocks, internet blackout leave Pakistani Kashmir in limbo Aljazeera
New Not-So-Cold War
Shipping Suspended on Ukraine’s Black Sea Corridor Due to Increased Attacks Maritime Executive
Russia is establishing a blockade of Ukrainian ports by attacking port infrastructure and ships along Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coastline — seemingly with the purpose of making Ukraine a de facto landlocked state. pic.twitter.com/gXV2qsMWKU
— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) July 25, 2026
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Set Wildberries Warehouses Ablaze Across Russia Novinite
The Sixth Red Scare, Not the Second Undiplomatic (Micael T)
Dro-ligarch wars Events in Ukraine
Imperial Collapse Watch
🚨ICC member states vote 82 to 43 to remove Karim Khan as prosecutor
Regardless of where people stand on this, the vote doesn't undermine the credibility of the charges against Netanyahu which were thoroughly examined & approved by ICC judges
The main concern now is if Israel,… pic.twitter.com/rXZZsDIMqf
— Muhammad Shehada (@muhammadshehad2) July 24, 2026
New surveillance commons means the end of military concealment Asia Times (Kevin W)
Cyclospora outbreak expands to nine US states, health officials say BBC (Kevin W)
Trump 2.0
DOGE and the Trump administration pushed 7,800 workers out of Social Security.
Now it's scrambling to hire people back as seniors face longer waits for fewer appointments.
What did Trump and DOGE accomplish besides making it harder for people to get the benefits they earned?
— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) July 24, 2026
Trump Orders Warnings Placed at ‘Inaccurate’ Smithsonian History Museum New York Times (Kevin W)
Tariffs
Trump imposes new double-digit tariffs on dozens of countries Aljazeera
Asia disputes forced labour claims used to justify latest US tariffs Straits News
Tariffs, Yet Again Barry Ritholtz (resilc)
Immigration
Rural states need immigration most Green Gazette (Robin K)
Report: Dozens of ICE and CBP Agents Have Abused Women and Children Mother Jones
Democrats Suck
Democrats brush off fears within party about threat of democratic socialists The Hill
Our No Longer Free Press
The Resistance Liberal Lawyers Helping Trump Take Over the Media Matt Stoller
Economy
Running on borrowed time: The world’s oil buffer is shrinking as inflation risks build CNBC
Why hasn’t the energy crisis happened yet? Will oil become the Black Swan of the century? Let’s look at the mechanisms Ismaele (Ruben N)
OIL PRICE MANIPULATION IS UNRAVELING – w/ Philip Pilkington YouTube
Yemen Heats Up… A New Threat to the Global Oil Supply Larry Johnson
U.S. Refinery Utilization Hits 96.2% as Fuel Markets Tighten Worldwide OilPrice
Middle East conflict sends shockwaves across global gas markets AzerNews
How shipping insurance rates are rising, as Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb shut down Aljazeera
Investor alert: Rare earth mining isn’t paying off Kevin Walmsley (Kevin W)
Panama Canal’s El Niño Concerns Prompt Carrier Surcharges, New Draft Restrictions WWD. I took Panama off my list for expat destinations early because it was poor in food sufficiency and was having water shortage issues years ago. The canal and farmers compete.
Mr. Market Should Be More Worried
Global Reliance on US Equities Flashes Alarm, Along With China Corporate Debt Bloomberg
AI Debt Competing with Treasuries Is Adding to Lofty US Yields Bloomberg
AI
Meet All The Middle Aged Women Who Don’t Exist Charlotte’s Book (resilc)
AI does not appear to be boosting productivity, analysts at Barclays have said Telegraph
AXA warns AI is no substitute for care as UK mental health hits crisis point Insurance Business Magazine
Google reports $6bn cash burn last quarter as it raises AI spending again Financial Times
AI companies are hiding more debt than you think | Ed Zitron YouTube
Guillotine Watch
Elon’s horrible, no good, very bad day Caleb Ecarna
SpaceX Merging with Tesla as Stock Plummets – Bet Against Elon Musk YouTube (resilc)
Tesla stock suffers double-digit drop on carmaker’s worst day in years Guardian
Class Warfare
New Fed research suggests far fewer Americans own homes than widely believed CBS (Kevin W)
Antidote du jour (via):
A bonus
The young goat that lost its mother in a wolf attack in Sivas and was rejected by the rest of the herd started going to sleep with the shepherd dogs every night so it wouldn’t be alone pic.twitter.com/qdVaiI2jFK
— Nature Unedited (@NatureUnedited) July 23, 2026
A second bonus:
After a heavy snowfall in the US, the zoo staff opened the gates for the penguins so they could go out and explore as if it were their natural habitat. pic.twitter.com/7VB8YwDgBP
— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) July 22, 2026
And a third:
A guy went out to see what his dog was up to and discovered it happily playing with a capybara. pic.twitter.com/caqd6aaIgF
— The Figen (@TheFigen_) July 22, 2026
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
“Spain prepares for 47C heatwave as holiday destinations face brutal temperatures”
Heard on the news tonight that Spain has had to declare a state of emergency for the first time ever in relation to a wildfire-
https://www.voiceofemirates.com/en/news/2026/07/24/spain-declares-national-state-of-emergency-for-first-time-as-wildfires-force-mass-evacuations/
Not just small villages under threat but large towns as well.
Thanks for the cockroach movement update (also love the name). I think this really is an organic protest, unlike the ballyhooed ‘Gen-Z protests’ hyped last year (thankfully fizzling out after failing in Mexico). Time will tell, but I am very interested to see where this goes next, and what it eventually leads to.
‘🇮🇷⚡️🇺🇸The Revolutionary Guard issues a warning: Immediately stay away from an area within a 500-meter radius of the locations where US forces are secretly stationed.’
This could be a clever ploy by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. After issuing this warning, they could have their contacts on the ground report any area where the locals are suddenly giving it a wide berth which might be an indicator of a secret base there. It would strip away its human shields as well. A quick check of a few satellite images and other resources would tell the story one way or another.