Author Archives: Yves Smith

Down to the Wire!

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Final Hours of Fundraiser, Getting Closer to Our Targets

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A Debt Deal is Nigh! A Debt Deal is Nigh! Or is It?

If you make a quick scan of the headlines, which is the way a lot of people interact with the news, you’d see numerous reports stressing that Senate leaders had made “progress” in the “let’s try not to crash into the debt ceiling” talks and were hopeful of getting a deal done. Stock markets took cheer from these reports.

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Yanis Varoufakis: Economics Pseudo-Nobel 2013 – An Instinctive Reaction

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Yves here. I was going to say a few words about newly-announced recipients of the award known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, but Yanis Varoufakis beat me to the punch. I’ve taken the liberty of combining his two short posts on this topic. Rest assured that as Varoufakis indicates, that Eugene Fama (one of the three recipients of this year’s prize) was one of the leading proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which as we discussed in ECONNED, provided critical intellectual support for the idea that markets, particularly financial markets, did an excellent job of price determination and thus should be left to their own devices as much as possible.

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Bill Black: Arnold Kling’s Cunning Hairdresser Theory of the Financial Crisis

Yves here. I have to confess that I love this title. It serves as a reminder that the meme that lenders in the crisis were somehow victimized by borrowers is a lame defense of rank incompetence or worse. The basic rule of lending is that all you have is downside from a credit perspective. The borrower is never going to perform better than the terms of the agreement, and he may well do worse. Any competent lender knows that borrowers can be overly optimistic, naive, unlucky, or downright crooked. Lenders therefore need to take prudent measures to protect themselves from these well-known borrower foibles, the most important being not lending to obvious bad risks, and adding enough margin to your cost of borrowing to cover debtor bad luck and your own miscalculation. So to have a huge explosion of borrower defaults, including a meaningful swathe of subprime borrowers defaulting in the first 90 days, is proof not of massive borrower chicanery, but massive lender incompetence or corruption (as in presuming they could dump the dodgy loan on the next fool in the securitization pipeline).

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The Shutdown Talks Are in Chaos

A lot of readers, when we’ve discussed the budget/shutdown/debt ceiling negotiations, have done the equivalent of declaring it all to be kabuki, that the fix is in.

While I have no doubt that any resolution of this impasse is certain to make matters worse for what is left of the endangered species known as the American middle class, what is going on in DC is not a pretty scripted stagefight.

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Bill Moyers on Dollars versus Democracy, aka Supreme Court Case McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission

Yves here. With the deficit showdown consuming so much media attention, a lot of important stories are not getting the attention they warrant. One is a case before the Supreme Court, McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission, which many have called Citizens United 2.0. Bill Moyers and his guest, Yale Law School election and constitutional law professor Heather Gerken, discuss how this case has the potential to further erode campaign finance laws and increase the already considerable influence that monied interests have on politics.

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