I must say, it’s quite amusing to watch Simon Johnson. He has an unabashedly bearish message…for 2010! And he delivers it in a sunny, enthusiastic tone. His hosts are not too keen about it, but the fact that he is so bloody upbeat about his gloomsterism leaves them a bit flummoxed.
Read more...I saw this item on RGE Monitor (Nouriel Roubini’s blog/economic analysis website) and was gobsmacked: Greetings from RGE! A couple months ago, in a widely read FT op-ed, Nouriel Roubini warned that the “mother of all carry trades,” one funded in U.S. dollar denominated debt, could pump up asset bubbles around the world… When uncovered […]
Read more...Reader Andrew sent a research report by Pivot Capital Management, which makes a compelling case that the capital spending bubble in China has reached its limits. This is important in a narrow sense, since capital investment is now the largest component of Chinese growth, and in its broader ramifications, since China is seen as a […]
Read more...What a difference seven years makes. No one had a problem with Japan having super low interest rates and stoking a global carry trade, nor with the US running overly loose monetary policy that led to a real estate bubble that spread its impact beyond our borders via the creation of toxic mortgage product sold […]
Read more...This tidbit, from a report on impressions of conditions in China, via a steel buyer who has been making the rounds in Asia (hat tip reader Michael) is more significant than it appears. High inflation levels in China (and the powers that be seem to get worried when it goes over 11%-12%) is consistent with […]
Read more...I was on the Andrew Hall/Phibro beat for a while and must confess I dropped it in the finish-the-book crunch. I neglected to follow up on and important aspect of the story that is still germane. Readers may recall the brouhaha: Hall, a high stakes oil trader, had received nearly $100 million in 2008 at […]
Read more...You cannot make this stuff up. The Saudis are lobbying for foreign aid in anticipation of declining oil revenues. Hat tip reader Michael: Saudi Arabia has led a quiet campaign….demanding behind closed doors that oil-producing nations get special financial assistance if a new climate pact calls for substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels. […]
Read more...Many US commentators blithely asset that the US does not need to worry about the reserve currency status of the dollar, since there is allegedly no ready substitute. Yet those arguments ignore the fact that there has already been movement away from the greenback. The Globe and Mail in early 2008 noted: A UBS Investment […]
Read more...Nouriel Roubini, who has backed off from what was once his signature bearishiness (he has been calling for an U or perhaps a W shaped recovery) nevertheless thinks the current market rallies are considerably overdone. From Bloomberg: New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis, said stock and commodity markets may drop […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. (Rest assured that once Yves is done writing her book, and back posting, or other guest posters write more, I will post less often! ) This essay rounds up arguments for gold as a reasonable investment. China Commentators such as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Byron King argue that China’s hunger […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As I have recently pointed out, there are strong arguments for ongoing deflation. But even deflationists think that – after a period of deflation – we might eventually get inflation. For example, in October, I guessed 1 1/2 to 2 years of deflation, followed by inflation. Moreover, noted deflationist […]
Read more...It must be lonely being a China bear….particularly for those dubious about its longer term prospects, as opposed to those who might simply think its stock market is a bit ahead of itself even after its recent correction. Vitaliy Katsenelson, in an article at MorningStar, beings almost sounding a tad persecuted before he warms up […]
Read more...Some investors see the Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for the shipping rates for dry bulk cargoes, as an indicator of international trade activity. BDI is admittedly noisy, and so needs to be interpreted along with other information. Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of […]
Read more...Nouriel Roubini verged on apocalyptic during the course of the crisis, and was proven largely right. Now that he has softened his stance, some have accused him of moderating his tone as a result of his much higher profile. While that’s possible, a couple of factors seem more likely. First and foremost, much of Roubini […]
Read more...Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain Someone asked why Bernanke seemed so positive about the US recovery, and what he would do if his prediction turned out to be incorrect. The first answer is rather straightforward. He is ‘jawboning’ or trying to increase confidence in the system to motivate businesses to spend and consumers […]
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