This story on Bloomberg, about stockpiling of base metals by Chinese farmers and housewives, highlights a type of speculation that observers in the West haven’t considered deeply. Since these were purchases by individuals, sometimes in the form of scrap, it’s hard to ascertain how significant a factor this activity has been. If nothing else, the […]
Read more...Even though China keeps putting out cheery official numbers, its purchases of commodities are down, suggesting there is less to its stabilization than meets the eye. It’s early to say that this is conclusive, but there is a good bit of other anecdotal information and some firmer information raising questions about the true state of […]
Read more...On the surface, the particulars of this case seem simple. A Citigroup commodities trader who says he has a contract that could yield him a $100 million payment this year is crossing swords with the new Treasury pay czar, Kenneth Feinberg. The Wall Street Journal story portrays the pay deal for the trader, Andrew Hall, […]
Read more...While oil is a finite resource, focusing on the long term can blind one to near-term dynamics. There has been surprisingly little mention in the mainstream media of how large the current oil surplus is. The collective view seems to be that this will take care of itself in short order. But that may be […]
Read more...Um, how come this story is in the Sydney Morning Herald (as of about 20 hours ago) and not the US/UK business media? This is a pretty major development. Yes, commodities heavy Australia is most affected, but Oz is hardly alone in seeing the ramifications. While the US dollar is weakening, the Australian dollar has […]
Read more...One way of shaping the news is the framing of stories. Readers are sending articles on a daily basis pointing to a bullish bias in quite a few stories. In most, it not blatant, which is why I don’t parse them, here, in that it would seem like overkill. But in fact the subtle spinning […]
Read more...Readers may recall that it wasn’t all that long ago that China’s banks were sitting on big losses and the analysts debated how bad the mess was. In 2003, for instance, the damage was pegged at $500 billion, a stunning figure given the size of the economy, and meant the banking system was insolvent. Even […]
Read more...If Alan Greenspan were serious about rehabilitating himself, he could hire himself out to central banks and instruct their officials in the art of Looking Serous and Appearing to Say Important Things While Actually Communicating Nothing. This is a crucial skill for anyone in an important bureaucratic position. The Chinese could use a few lessons. […]
Read more...Andy Xie, writing for Cajing, questions the durability of China’s recovery. He argues that much of hte upsurge in lending, which was one of the developments that cheered commentators, is fueling asset speculation, in this case in commodities, Reports this spring has suggested that as much as a third of the new lending was going […]
Read more...You cannot make this stuff up. Even as of last summer, there were reports that gold at retail was priced at a hefty premium, often 20% or more, to professional prices. Greater convenience comes with a greater markup. The German gold vending machine reportedly update prices every few minutes and add a 30% upcharge. The […]
Read more...Are we seeing a rerun of early 2008 in diminished form, as least as far as oil prices are concerned? Reader Michael sent along an article by Dan Dicker that contends that oil prices are well ahead of their fundamentals, and that, as before, the oil bulls are taking considerable cheer from Goldman’s boosterism. A […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of the site Credit Writedowns. As I write this, the U.S. dollar has fallen to new 8-month lows against the British Pound and oil. Sterling is up over 2 big figures to 1.6371 while oil (WTI crude front month contract) has marched up near $68 a barrel. Clearly the sell the […]
Read more...This blog has been saying for a while that financial fraud is more pervasive than the officialdom wanted to acknowledge. We believe it is not uncommon at big firms (see last night’s discussion of Merrill, including comments), but no one wants to open that can of worms. However, small fry (even biggish ones, as long […]
Read more...One of our pet peeves has been that the quality of data for oil and gas is lousy. Given that these are physical products, bought and sold through many channels, with no way of assuring consistency and accuracy of reporting, it isn’t surprising. However, what is surprising is that many users of this information treat […]
Read more...Admittedly, the report from Emirates Business 24/7 (hat tip reader Michael) is only one expert’s opinion, but it focuses on an issue that hasn’t gotten the attention it warrants, namely, the level of the current oil glut and how much it is going to take to work it down. The subtext of this piece is […]
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