Category Archives: Credit markets

Banks Face $5 Trillion Rollover by 2012

This Sydney Morning Herald story (hat tip reader Gordon) highlights a Bank of England report that not only points out the magnitude of the financing needs of major banks over the next few years, a daunting $5 trillion, but also indicates that US and European bank refinancings are falling short of their rollover calendar. This […]

Richard Smith: Did We Wind Up With Any Reform of the Shadow Banking System?

By Richard Smith, a London-based capital markets IT consultant In my last post, “Tracking the Rabbit through the Anaconda” , I mocked Geithner a bit and promised you all a spot of moaning about what’s missing from the financial reform bill. Well, the anaconda has now had the time it needed to produce its offering. […]

Will the Push for Short Sales Lead to Deeper Principal Mods?

A reader with considerable experience in real estate who has asked to remain anonymous pointed to an article in Housing Wire describing some possible unintended consequences of the Administration’s push for more short sales: This past week, I received an email from one of my dearest friends that has really stuck with me. It illuminates […]

Whitney, Ritholtz Issue Bearish Calls on Housing Market

While the headline focuses on her outlook for housing, Whitney is bearish across the board, seeing little reason to cheer on the employment and bank earnings fronts. She sees a 10% fall in housing prices in the next six months (!), which will hit bank earnings (Whitney has argued since at least early 2009 that […]

Parenteau: Marching to Austeria* and Other Neolib Fibs

By Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of The Richebacher Letter, and a research associate of The Levy Economics Institute Richard Alford has correctly identified the need to address global imbalances – rather than simply slouch our way back to some milder version of status quo before the pre- Lehman meltdown arrangement, […]

More on the Coming European Bank Stress Test Fiasco

We noted a bit more than a week ago that we expect the European banks stress tests to backfire. The US version was a successful con game because the officialdom provided adequate disclosure about the process and stayed firmly on message, the banks were allowed to “manufacture” as analyst Meredith Whitney put it, impressive earnings, […]

Corporate Default Expectations Rise, Emerging Market Spreads Widening

The bond markets are quicker-trigger to register concern about deteriorating fundamentals than the stock market, with risky credits the canaries in the coal mine. Bloomberg reports that spreads have widened in both leveraged loans and emerging market debt, but also notes some analysts see this rise as a blip rather than a trend. From Bloomberg: […]

Misnamed Financial Services “Reform” Bill Passes, Systemic Risk is Alive and Well

I want the word “reform” back. Between health care “reform” and financial services “reform,” Obama, his operatives, and media cheerleaders are trying to depict both initiatives as being far more salutary and far-reaching than they are. This abuse of language is yet another case of the Obama Adminsitration using branding to cover up substantive shortcomings. […]

Tom Adams: Face to Face With Polished Wall Street Psychopathy (SEC Says that ICP Stole from My Old Company Edition)

By Tom Adams, an attorney and former monoline executive When the financial crisis hit, I was in the direct line of fire. My company blew up very early in the crisis, giving me the dubious opportunity to see how bad things were going to get long before most of the rest of the world, including […]

Mirabile Dictu: $19 Billion Fee Added to Financial Reform Bill (Updated)

In a weak nod to “too big to fail” concerns, House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank announced that larger banks and hedge funds would pay a fee as a way of pre-funding resolution costs. From the Financial Times: The proposed levy emerged as an unwelcome surprise for the industry deep into a late-evening congressional […]

The Buyers’ Strike in the Securitization Markets

One of the dead bodies in plain sight that generally goes unremarked upon in polite company is the buyers’ strike in the securitization market. Issuance of private label (as in non-government guaranteed) residential mortgage backed securities has collapsed, with government entities insuring 96.5% of all home mortgages in the first quarter 2010. The commercial mortgage […]

Geithner Yet Again Misrepresents TARP “Performance”

The problem with propaganda is that it is generally effective. Utter the Big Lie often enough and most people will come to believe it. The Obama Administration has engaged in persistent misrepresentation of the outcome of the TARP equity injections, which is a manifestation of its early decision to reconstitute as much as possible, the […]

Eurobank “Stress Test” Disclosure Likely to Increase Jitters

As we noted last week, Spain has forced the hand of other Eurozone bank regulators by declaring it will release the results of recent ECB stress tests, which earlier were to be published only on an aggregated basis, not bank by bank. There is still a good bit of confusion as to what happens next. […]

Why is No One Willing to Say Wall Street is Overpaid?

The New York Times yesterday featured an article by Yale economist Robert Shiller in which he discussed how financial reform had fallen short of addressing the conditions that caused the crisis. He focused on the failure to implement effective pay reform at the large financial firms that too big or otherwise too crucial to fail: […]

The New Republic Lays on Hot and Heavy JP Morgan PR

I recoiled on the first reading of Noam Schrieber’s “The Breakup,” an account of the recently-cooled relationship between JP Morgan and the White House at The New Republic this week. And I don’t like it much better upon a second perusal. So much of the piece is devoted to uncritical recitation of pure JP Morgan […]