Category Archives: Credit markets

Whitney, Ritholtz Issue Bearish Calls on Housing Market

While the headline focuses on her outlook for housing, Whitney is bearish across the board, seeing little reason to cheer on the employment and bank earnings fronts. She sees a 10% fall in housing prices in the next six months (!), which will hit bank earnings (Whitney has argued since at least early 2009 that […]

Parenteau: Marching to Austeria* and Other Neolib Fibs

By Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of The Richebacher Letter, and a research associate of The Levy Economics Institute Richard Alford has correctly identified the need to address global imbalances – rather than simply slouch our way back to some milder version of status quo before the pre- Lehman meltdown arrangement, […]

More on the Coming European Bank Stress Test Fiasco

We noted a bit more than a week ago that we expect the European banks stress tests to backfire. The US version was a successful con game because the officialdom provided adequate disclosure about the process and stayed firmly on message, the banks were allowed to “manufacture” as analyst Meredith Whitney put it, impressive earnings, […]

Corporate Default Expectations Rise, Emerging Market Spreads Widening

The bond markets are quicker-trigger to register concern about deteriorating fundamentals than the stock market, with risky credits the canaries in the coal mine. Bloomberg reports that spreads have widened in both leveraged loans and emerging market debt, but also notes some analysts see this rise as a blip rather than a trend. From Bloomberg: […]

Misnamed Financial Services “Reform” Bill Passes, Systemic Risk is Alive and Well

I want the word “reform” back. Between health care “reform” and financial services “reform,” Obama, his operatives, and media cheerleaders are trying to depict both initiatives as being far more salutary and far-reaching than they are. This abuse of language is yet another case of the Obama Adminsitration using branding to cover up substantive shortcomings. […]

Tom Adams: Face to Face With Polished Wall Street Psychopathy (SEC Says that ICP Stole from My Old Company Edition)

By Tom Adams, an attorney and former monoline executive When the financial crisis hit, I was in the direct line of fire. My company blew up very early in the crisis, giving me the dubious opportunity to see how bad things were going to get long before most of the rest of the world, including […]

Mirabile Dictu: $19 Billion Fee Added to Financial Reform Bill (Updated)

In a weak nod to “too big to fail” concerns, House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank announced that larger banks and hedge funds would pay a fee as a way of pre-funding resolution costs. From the Financial Times: The proposed levy emerged as an unwelcome surprise for the industry deep into a late-evening congressional […]

The Buyers’ Strike in the Securitization Markets

One of the dead bodies in plain sight that generally goes unremarked upon in polite company is the buyers’ strike in the securitization market. Issuance of private label (as in non-government guaranteed) residential mortgage backed securities has collapsed, with government entities insuring 96.5% of all home mortgages in the first quarter 2010. The commercial mortgage […]

Geithner Yet Again Misrepresents TARP “Performance”

The problem with propaganda is that it is generally effective. Utter the Big Lie often enough and most people will come to believe it. The Obama Administration has engaged in persistent misrepresentation of the outcome of the TARP equity injections, which is a manifestation of its early decision to reconstitute as much as possible, the […]

Eurobank “Stress Test” Disclosure Likely to Increase Jitters

As we noted last week, Spain has forced the hand of other Eurozone bank regulators by declaring it will release the results of recent ECB stress tests, which earlier were to be published only on an aggregated basis, not bank by bank. There is still a good bit of confusion as to what happens next. […]

Why is No One Willing to Say Wall Street is Overpaid?

The New York Times yesterday featured an article by Yale economist Robert Shiller in which he discussed how financial reform had fallen short of addressing the conditions that caused the crisis. He focused on the failure to implement effective pay reform at the large financial firms that too big or otherwise too crucial to fail: […]

The New Republic Lays on Hot and Heavy JP Morgan PR

I recoiled on the first reading of Noam Schrieber’s “The Breakup,” an account of the recently-cooled relationship between JP Morgan and the White House at The New Republic this week. And I don’t like it much better upon a second perusal. So much of the piece is devoted to uncritical recitation of pure JP Morgan […]

SEC Investigates Magnetar, Sponsor of CDO Program That Pumped Up the Subprime Bubble

Readers of this blog may know that we broke story in our book ECONNED of the role that the hedge fund Magnetar played in increasing the severity of the subprime bubble through its program of hybrid CDOs (meaning composed of actual tranches of subprime bonds plus credit default swaps). To recap: Magnetar embarked on an […]

“Death of an Economic Paradigm”

This post appeared as an op-ed in Mint, India’s second largest business newspaper. The financial market upheaval that started in May is a stark reminder that the conditions that produced the global financial crisis of 2007-08 have not been resolved. The sucking sound of deflation emanating from Europe and the creaking of bank balance sheets […]

Spain is About to Make Trouble for German and French Banks

Ooh, this might get ugly. The ECB rather firmly resisted the idea of releasing its recent stress test results on individual European banks. And with good reason: many observers suspect that some of the big German and French banks look less than robust. (And this is before we get to the obvious elephant in the […]