Category Archives: Dubious statistics

“An Honest Discussion of Covid Vaccine Side Effects Is Overdue”

Even with more willingness to discuss Covid side effects, most medical professionals still seem reluctant to admit to the probably frequency

Longer-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

Stock jockeys love Trump and bond vigilantes do not. What do their diverging views say about the prospects for the US economy?

What If There’s No Landing at All, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation?

Recent economic data suggest inflation may gain steam again. What would the Fed do?

Private Equity Pummeled by Higher Interest Rates as Portfolio Companies and Credit Funds Struggle; Use of PIK Loans Now Recalls Late 1980s LBO Crisis

More and more private equity and private credit deals are looking over-extended. How bad might things get?

Economic Models Ignoring “Look Out the Window” Climate Change Effects

Supposed forecasting mavens are simply ignoring the real economy effects, like poor harvests, of climate change.

Alzheimer’s: How Not to Study a Disease

KLG returns to why the discredited amyloid thesis as the cause of Alzheimer’s nevertheless persists.

OK, Forget it, False Alarm, Labor Market Is Fine, Bad Stuff Last Month Was Revised Away, Wages Jumped. No More Rate Cuts Needed?

New and revised labor market data suddenly says the US economy is just fine. Mr. Market’s continued rate cuts look off the table for now.

The Fed and the “Soft Landing” – Policy or Luck?

The Fed has little to do with the fall in inflation. Limited labor bargaining power and easing supply chain problems were more important.

Diet-Related Diseases Are the No. 1 Cause of Death in the US – Yet Many Doctors Receive Little to No Nutrition Education in Med School

An exhortation for doctors to get more nutrition education so they can advise patients on diet. But is that as simple as it seems?

Days After Rate Cut, S&P’s Flash PMI Sees Rising Inflation and Exhorts the Fed to “Move Cautiously” with “Further Rate Cuts”

S&P: “The “reacceleration of inflation” suggests “the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target.”

Big Oil to Benefit From Biden’s Carbon Capture Tax Credits: Report

How carbon capture tax credits funnel billions to the oil and gas industry while delivering few if any climate benefits.

‘The Data on Extreme Human Ageing Is Rotten from the Inside Out’ – Ig Nobel Winner Saul Justin Newman

Some myths bite the dust, here related to the number who live to be over 100. Not surprisingly, the cause is crappy data.

Official US Poverty Rate Declined in 2023, but More People Faced Economic Hardship

The arguably better official measure of US poverty says the poor are getting poorer.