Yves here. Before you take Andrew Korybko’s view as extreme, a new story in the Washington Post, framed as Trump hosting a meeting on Friday to try to broker a “peace deal” between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Conor has warned at length about the importance of the Zangezur Corridor and US-Israel schemes to use it to weaken Iran:
Even though it does not mention the idea of a US lease of the Zangezur Corridor even though that was floated by the US as part of a US conflict resolution proposal in July. Recall, as Mark Sleboda has pointed out, that Russia won the war in Syria but lost the peace.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
Armenia might formally withdraw from the CSTO and then replace Russian troops with American PMCs.
US Ambassador to Turkiye Tom Barrack proposed in mid-July that his country lease the Zangezur Corridor for 100 years as a means of breaking the deadlock between Armenia and Azerbaijan over this issue. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reacted negatively to his suggestion by accusing the US of trying to take over the peace process and jeopardizing regional stability. Her remarks followed a report alleging that a secret memorandum had already been signed for creating the “Trump Bridge”.
The Spanish outlet Periodista Digital claimed that members of the Armenian diaspora procured this document from their state contacts, which will also see the deployment of around 1,000 American PMCs to secure this route. RT chief Margarita Simonyan, who’s ethnically Armenian and passionate about her ancestral homeland’s affairs, popularized the report by sharing it on X. She’s also been very critical of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who she earlier accused of selling Armenia out to Turkiye.
If agreed to, and the report remains unconfirmed for now, the “Trump Bridge” could lead to Russia’s expulsion from the South Caucasus. The last clause of the Moscow-mediated November 2020 ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan calls for Russia’s FSB Border Guards to secure what Baku has since taken to calling the Zangezur Corridor through Armenia’s southern Syunik Region. Replacing them with American PMCs could precede the expulsion of Russian troops from Armenia.
Pashinyan confirmed in mid-July that Armenia will likely leave the CSTO instead of unfreeze its membership that he unilaterally suspended. This could be the pretext for requesting the withdrawal of Russian troops simultaneously with welcoming American PMCs. From his perspective, their deployment could function as an informal security guarantee vis-à-vis Azerbaijan and Turkiye since they’d think twice about endangering US citizens, especially those guarding a project called the “Trump Bridge”.
What the US wants to gain from this, apart from some easy profits, is setting into motion the sequence of events required for removing Russian forces from Armenia as explained above. The US can also monitor Turkish military traffic across the route to Central Asia while possibly stoking Azeri separatism in neighboring Iran’s majority-Azeri northern regions. Another benefit is that Trump could present this deal as having averted war and thus possibly raise the prospects that he’ll be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Armenia’s latest political unrest earlier this summer was driven in part by concerns that Pashinyan was on the brink of clinching a deal to open the Zangezur Corridor without any Russian role. That scenario coupled with Armenia’s possibly imminent withdrawal from the CSTO could leave Syunik vulnerable to an Azerbaijani(-Turkish?) invasion. He might have thus thought that inviting American PMCs to replace Russia’s FSB could placate his people, but they might still protest if he leases Armenian land to the US.
In the event that he does and isn’t deposed by a popular revolution or patriotic military coup, the “Trump Bridge” is expected to result in a surge of Turkish influence across Central Asia as explained here, which might then lead to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan defecting from the CSTO. The easiest means to this geopolitical end is for Armenia to cut an economic-security deal with the US that excludes Russia’s envisaged role in monitoring Turkish military traffic to Central Asia. It’s unclear how Russia could stop this.
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One thousand PMCs? Assuming the cost of hiring one mercenary is $1,200 per day, the annual cost would be $438 million ($1,200 x 365 x 1,000). That’s more than a country with a $1.7 billion defense budget could afford.
But for the US, that is couch lint. Who will actually pay the piper?
Korybko is missing the key player in this story, Iran. Damage to Russia is more hypothetical (loss of influence, etc.), but damage to Iran in lost transit feel and oil sales will be direct and painful. Is Iran going to just sit and let Americans park themselves on it’s northern border? They’ll be able to see any projects from their side of the border, they’ll be able to support Armenian “resistance” groups that will be more than happy to blow critical infrastructure and if push comes to shove, they can infiltrate across the border and take action themselves.
Iran has far more at stake here and, especially since Aliyev allowed Israel to use Azeri territory to attack Iran, they don’t need to worry about alienating Aliyev, in fact they may be eager for some payback.
Iran for nearly 300 years has had a policy of not initiating wars, of being only on the defense.
And that policy has brought them a succession of destructive wars, millions of lives and enormous financial loss. Even the most passive dog will bite eventually. I would not assume that Iran will continue to wait passively for the next assault.
The risk of US in Armenia, bordering Iran is akin to Ukraine entering NATO for Russia.
The risk of US in Armenia, bordering Iran is more akin to Baltic countries entering NATO for Russia.
But Iran in recent years, did reach out to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza, and Yemen. Yes they suffered losses more recently, but all of this like happened yesterday. And now you say, what, 300 years, …
I do not understand this comment.
All these countries/actors made independent decisions. Iran provided technical and material assistance. They have no commitment to come to Iran’s defense and even less so to act under Iran’s direction on the offense.
It’s right on their border, Iran has lots of drone experience, and a spin-up terrorist outfit can be created for plausible deniability.
Plus mountainous terrain, with lots of potential hidey-holes and blind turns. FPV drone C&C centers could be easily hidden inside of caves.
Sounds like the mercs will be earning their pay, including death benefits.
As much as people are making noise about this, Russia’s influence in the region does not depend on who is checking passports in Zanzegur. All the economies in the region are dependent on the good will of Russia, and no amount of PMCs in a narrow mountain valley will make Russia any less dominant military power in the region.
As for Iran, the amount of traffic passing trough on that two lane road from one part of Azerbaijan to another is in no way commercially significant, no matter how much Aliyev is pitching it as the future of the regions trade routes. Iran’s and Azerbaijan’s railroads made an agreement at the end of last year to together develop a rail route from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan trough Iran’s existing system, so Iran will likely be moving the bulk of the stuff anyway.
Iran opposes the corridor only because at the moment it seems to be a way of getting US/NATO troops to Iran’s border, and that Iran won’t have.
There is also the on-going pressure on Georgia by the EU to stop the rapprochement with Russia and to further the policies of NATO. Another piece on the Caucasus chess game — just on the doorstep of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey; the game is indeed intricate.
I doubt that Aliyev is foolish enough to enter a conflict either with Iran or Russia, but who knows.
Ultimately, the success of those moves may well depend on whether there is anything in this geopolitical reconfiguration for Armenia at all. If the loss of sovereignty, letting US troops in disguise control a part of the territory, giving up favourable trade conditions with Russia, and discord with Iran are not worth substantial economic benefits, then whichever government is at the helm in Erevan may well experience quite some trouble with its own population in a few years.
With all due respect, if you think this is about passports, you have lost the plot. From U.S. Inches Closer to Causing Major Caucasus Crisis With Offer to Administer Transport Corridor Between Turkey and Azerbaijan:
I respectfully disagree.
“Checking passports” is actually what the Border Guard Service of FSB does. And in this case they probably check the TIR carnets, too.
What I’m trying to say is Russia certainly sees some benefit in securing Armenia’s borders, but whether or nor Russia is involved in Zanzegur “corridor” or not plays a very minor part in the big picture of Russia-Armenia relations. Obviously people disagree with that, for some reason.
Yes, I put quotes around the word corridor, because for the most part it’s a deep V-shaped canyon following river Araks with a 2-lane dirt road on one side and Iran on the other.
To make it a functional Transport Corridor would take an enormous investment and I don’t see anyone interested in coming up with the money – especially as Azerbaijan already has working transport routes to Nakhchivan trough Georgia and Iran – and the only route for proper rail traffic can go trough Iran, which already has existing rails and why Azerbaijan railroads are in process of collaborating with Iranian railroads to build two railroad bridges over Araks – one from Azerbaijan to Iran and one from Iran to Nakhchivan.
I’m quite confident there will be no Zanzegur Corridor during my lifetime, if ever. All this is about Azerbaijan and Armenia trying to sort out what is their place in the region totally dominated by Russia, Turkey and Iran. The balance in the area did change when Azerbaijan finally took Nagorno-Karabakh and many regional players may have perceived Russia as too pre-occupied with Ukraine for now (and Iran with Israel) so they are looking for a new balance of things.
I think I would largely agree with this, as we’ve largely said in previous pieces here, such as most recent: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/07/u-s-inches-closer-to-causing-major-caucasus-crisis-with-offer-to-administer-transport-corridor-between-turkey-and-azerbaijan.html
It’s not so much that the corridor itself is some economic game changer but from the US perspective at least creating friction. Yes, about power balance and influence in the region that likely has more to do with Iran than Russia. For Moscow, would Baku and Yerevan be reneging on 2020 agreement by excluding Russia from corridor and adding insult to injury by including the US in some form? Yes. But it is mostly another case of US being fly in Russian soup. As we’ve mentioned, Armenia is dependent on Russia economically (“As Fitch Ratings notes, Armenia’s economy relies significantly on Russia for both trade and energy. For example, Armenia also currently pays Russia $165 per thousand cubic meters of gas, well below the market price in Europe, and Russia is Armenia’s number one trading partner.”) Zangezur won’t change that, but a continued campaign in Armenia to blame Russia for the country’s self-inflicted wounds is steadily leading to damaging of ties that could see Armenia walloped all the while blaming Moscow. Similar situation unfolding in Azerbaijan.
For Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkey the situation is different. The corridor, while being part of neocon fever dreams of creating conflict and playing role in ethnic divisions collapsing Iran, while piggybacking on Turkish fantasies of greater Turkey influence stretching east to China. Iran does have reason to be concerned as the corridor could reduce influence on Azerbaijan and Turkey while providing the latter two with options excluding Iran. Who knows what Armenia is doing?
US involvement looks like more of the same: an effort to stir up conflict based off of fears of what it could be rather than actually building anything that will produce concrete results.
from what i recall, FSB got booted out of airports security and checking sometime last year… so Armenia was long on it’s way to sellout, their “justice” is reformed by the FBI/DOJ (just like in Ukraine), their “security forces” trained by US NGuards to beat the civilian protestors… they are actively attacking the orthodox church, seizing russian citizens strategic companies, and RF does absolutely nothing to counter it. Worse, during the 2022 Azeris killed russian peacekeepers and Putin was a lame duck. He should reinforce russian peacekeepers in Armenia by at least 10-15k, protect the russians and the church, and put Baku on notice, their oil/gas and military will be targets if they start acting out… again. Make it clear NO US troops or economical/security deal is acceptable at ANY level. Otherwise they lose Khazakhstan and all Central Asia to US-UK oil interests.
According to an article in Middle East Eye , which is based in London, Armenia has rejected the US proposal of an ‘independent’ US company managing the security of the passage. It has also rejected Turkey’s proposal for a 3rd party to do this unless they were also providing the same service in Nakhchivan.
Seems like a letter of intent is the most that is likely to get signed in the near future. Not sure how long the present Armenian leadership is likely to last , which could change a lot. Unlikely a two lane road through mountainous country is more than symbolic , as mentioned elsewhere the rail route is going via Iran anyway.
There are meetings in the White House today so this still seems to be in play.
So far as I can see (which is not very far at all), Armenia is , basically engaged in a slow motion national suicide, with the enthusiastic support of its substantial diaspora in the US and France, as well as Pashinyan’s supporters in Armenia.
None of this will harm Russia, really, that I can see, but if that corridor gets formed, Armenia will have no border other than with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Georgia is unlikely to be much help, whoever is in charge.
All in all, It’ll be a significant headache for Iran, with some lost revenues, and doubtless Azeri attacks from time to time, but I think only Armenia really suffers badly.
It’s a real head scratcher for me what Pashinyan and company are hoping for
I agree. This corridor will be the end of Armenia. Their border with Iran is their lifeline and there is no way that Washington will let that continue. The Turks will do what they want with the remaining Armenian population. There are fewer of them than Palestinians, which means that the World can once again turn a blind eye to what happens. Turkey and Azerbaijan could cut Israel’s oil supply and stop the killing at any time, but they have both sided with genocide.
This show Iran and Russia is playing checkers and USA play chess. I think in 15 years Russia and Iran will come under USA control. If i was China i would start push for 100% local energy source under 15 years
The US can barely control itself. How you imagine they could come to control two nations that are the size of Russia and Iran is beyond me.
Did you forget that the USA effectively influenced Russia in the 1990s? They didn’t need hundreds of thousands of troops just a few economists from the Chicago School and plenty of cash. The Russian elites were more than willing to sell out to the West. Russia had 2022 over $200 billion in assets and cash abroad, which could have been used to strengthen their own nation. Instead, those assets were frozen or confiscated much of which now benefits wealthy Ukrainians and Western institutions.
This wouldn’t have been possible if Russia’s central bank weren’t effectively aligned with Western interests. The truth is, in many countries, there are powerful traitors within the elite who prioritize foreign interests over their own nation’s.
As an outsider I might think RU didn´t have the power projection both militarily and economically then as it does now. It has a completely different status today.
Then there is China. India´s position – who knows. But anyway, this is a new game with a far bigger group of new competitors most of them more powerful than before.
I think you missed a lot of changes in the over three decades since that time. The US wants that time back. Much of the last decade or so has been about the US using proxies and sanctions to try to destabilize the current leadership to the point where they have elites they can buy and a leadership who actually considers the Chicago School as any kind of an expert and might do the stupid things they advocate.
Chicago econ doesn’t have the prestige it used to and the West doesn’t have that sort if cash, or, rather, it’s not the only one and the West is less able to risk just tossing it away.
It’s not just Russia that is being targeted but also Iran and even China as well. So it is in the interests of those three powerful countries to throw a few spanners in the works here. If I remember correctly, Armenia alone is economically dependent on Russia and Russia could lean on Azerbaijan by deporting their people from Russia back to that country. I cannot see them tolerating a US presence there. Nominally those 1,000 PMCs would be mercs but probably half of them would actually be spooks and special ops. Pretty soon they would complain that they do not have the numbers to guard that corridor and would start recruiting ‘locals’ who would actually be some of their ‘buddies’ from Syria. From here, like in Al Tanf in Syria, they would be trained, equipped and sent on their way to attack Iranians or Russians or whoever. Then again these three countries might take a leaf from the western playbook and suddenly you would have attacks on those forces in that corridor by the Armenian Popular Front or the Popular People’s Front of Azerbaijan which would include the use of drones. For many years the Russians had only a light touch in the caucus but they see that it was a mistake and now is the time for real politik. And both China and Iran would want payback for US attacks on them either directly or by proxies.
Once “The Stable Genius” signs on to a plan, what can go wrong?
Turkey and Iran have had an uneasy relationship for centuries but there is still respect between the two countries over each other’s power.
Nonetheless, all this will change if Iran gets the bomb because the balance of power between Turkey and Iran will change dramatically.
Turkey supported the rebels/terrorists in Syria while Iran supported Assad. Erdogan does not tolerate Netanyahu. Erdogan warmed up to Jolani aka Ahmad al-Shara, and Hamas and Israel to the PKK.
Turkey does not mind the US/Israel putting an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, yet, at the same time, Netanyahu wants regime collapse in Iran but that’s the last thing Turkey wants. Millions of refugees have already poured into Turkey and an Iran regime collapse could be a disaster for Turkey by destabilizing the relative normal border between them. It could also leave Turkey standing alone against the IDF.
Further to an Iran collapse is a power vacuum and the PKK, which Erdogan views as an enemy, becoming a significant problem for Turkey.
The “Trump Bridge” seems like a decent idea except that It’s going nowhere without a near US guarantee to prevent an Iranian regime collapse. But as we know, it’s usually Israel first in the ME.
“Recall, as Mark Sleboda has pointed out, that Russia won the war in Syria but lost the peace.” —
I don’t agree with this. Russia did not win any war in Syria. To use a medical analogy: it stabilized the patient (Syria) and kept him technically alive for a few more years, but the patient never got back on his feet again (certainly not in the sense of controlling its borders, expelling foreign troops from its territory, eliminating rebel resistance, and repelling frequent Israeli air raids). There was no Syrian peace to lose, and there still isn’t.
Interesting to note that Russia still has its bases there.
I recall a YouTuber saying Israel wanted them to stay. But Russia was also pulling out assets and arranging for better basing rights in Africa so as to maintain power projection. I did not hear what if anything came re the latter.
Russia just hit the Orlovka gas compressor station near Odessa. This was to be a critical link for Azeri gas export to Europe. The timing may not be coincidental.