Category Archives: Dubious statistics

Peak Optimism, or Peak Propaganda?

Yves here. Ilargi is mighty vexed by the unseemly display of optimism in the media over today’s jobs reports, since the continuing cheerleading is every more at odds with the outlook for most consumers and businesses. It’s easy to view this chipper barrage as a mainstay of the financial media, but as Ilargi implies, this looks like an effort to redefine collective expectations downward, so that ordinary citizens are conditioned to see the “new normal” of a tepid recovery as the best they can expect.

Why Did GDP Fall So Dramatically Last Quarter?

Robert Pollin, professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, gives a good high-level discussion of why the GDP results for last quarter were such a train wreck. Remember that analysts and economists were blindsided; no one expected to see GDP fall at that rate. As we wrote, the tendency among pundits has been to treat the results as of not much concern, since that period is past and some of plunge can be attributed to one-off factors, most importantly, abnormally cold weather. Pollin explains why this explanation is insufficient.

GDP Hits Air Pocket: Recession Warning or False Alarm?

In case you managed to miss it, the GDP revision yesterday morning was stunningly bad.

But after getting rattled, Mr. Market shrugged off the report. So what if we opened Schrodinger’s box and found out the cat was dead? That was first quarter’s cat. That cat might as well be dead for all we care now. Plus the weather was bad, so we’ll make all that up, and anyway, the Fed has our back, so if there really is something to worry about here, they’ll fix it, as least as far as security-owners are concerned. Right?

In addition to looking at the main elements of the GDP report, we’ve asked readers to report on what they see in their economy.

Bill Black: The EU Center-Right and Ultra-Right’s Continuing War on the People of the EU

The New York Times has provided us with an invaluable column about the interactions of the EU’s rightist and ultra-rightest parties. It is invaluable because it is (unintentionally) so revealing about the EU’s right and ultra-right parties and the NYT’s inability to understand either the EU economic or political crises. The NYT article illustrates its points by presenting a tale entitled “A German Voice, Hans-Olaf Henkel, Calls for Euro’s Abolition.” It treats Henkel, an open racist and austerian, as a reputable figure, apparently because he is wealthy.

The Federal Reserve Versus Hyman Minsky (and Deflation)

How the Fed has gotten itself caught in its own underwear by ignoring Hyman Minsky and in persisting in the clearly failed strategy of super lax monetary policy rather than calling for more government spending.

Debunking the Myth of Private Equity’s Superior Returns

Why private equity returns are nowhere near as juicy as most investors in private equity believe.

R. Hunter Biden Should Declare Who Really Owns His New Ukrainian Employer, Burisma Holdings

Trying to pierce the murk around the new Ukrainian venture of Vice President Biden’s son R. Hunter Biden

Richard Alford: Not Only Are Economists in Policy Roles Bad at Forecasting, They Also Do a Poor Job of Allowing for Error

Understanding the odds and possible impact of forecasting error should be a important element of policy design. But it isn’t!

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a Hoax

Yves here. On the occasion of an all-time high, a hard look at how the Dow Jones Industrial Average is constituted is in order.

The BLS Jobs Report Covering April 2014: A Tale of Two Contradictory Reports And Deeply Mixed Messages

By Hugh, who is a long-time commenter at Naked Capitalism. Originally published at Corrente. A complete archive of Hugh’s reports can be found here The Jobs Report in Brief This is a very schizophrenic jobs report. In the seasonally adjusted “official” data, the unemployment rate dropped an amazing four-tenths of a percent to 6.3% but […]

Did Canada’s Middle Class Just Get More Affluent Than the US’s, or Did that Happen Long Ago?

The media understates how much the prosperity of the US middle class has fallen on a relative basis.

The Jobs Report For March 2014: After A Long Winter, The Economy Plays Some Catchup

Mr. Market was not happy with today’s jobs report. While it was not that bad, the ADP report earlier in the week had led investors to hope for better details.

Joe Firestone: Progressives Re-Arrange the Deck Chairs for Obama’s Austerity Budget

With friends like the austerity-loving Congressional Progressive Caucus, who needs enemies?

Gaius Publius: Neoliberalism, “Just Desserts,” and the Post-Climate-Crisis Economy

Gaius examines the connections between neoliberalism and the convulsions that climate change will bring to the world.

The Jobs Report Covering February 2014: Seasonal Signs of Life But Nowhere Near Full Employment

Yves here. Due to a communication failure between Lambert and me, you are getting Hugh’s report on the monthly employment release late. Apologies!