Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Michael Hudson: Ukraine Denouement – The Russian Loan and the IMF’s One-Two Punch

Will America’s insistence that Europe, Russia, and Ukraine act against their economic interest ultimately lead the US to lose Europe?

Wolf Richter: Something Rotten Is Piling Up in this Economy

Given how many QE-induced distortions we have in the economy, I’m not certain the spike in inventories (in isolation) is as telling a symptom as it was last time around. But most analysts took note of how much of last quarter’s GDP figures reflected both a big increase in inventories and a negative GDP deflator, and they expect the next quarter or two to be less robust.

Is All Growth Good? The Case of China

Growth versus “groaf” had become a favorite topic of the NC commentariat. This article sets forth some of the ways for differentiating between them, using China as an example.

Why is It Hard to Land a Well-Paid Job After Losing One?

Yves here. I sometimes run posts from orthodox economic sites as exercise in critical thinking, or to remind readers of what passes for research in economics, since economic work is treated with undue reverence in policy circles.

Here, the issue at hand is why people who have well paid jobs take a while to land another one, of course assuming that they manage to land well. The analysis by the author is not bad, save its rather frightening level of abstraction. But take a good look at his summary of conventional assumptions about how job-finding and wage-setting for the unemployed is supposed to work.

Why We Won’t See An Oil Price Rebound Yet

The front page of The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, February 10 proclaimed “Oil-Price Rebound Predicted” according to the IEA (International Energy Agency).

Not true.

Greece, Eurozone Ministers at Fundamental Loggerheads

Bizarrely, there were leaks and news reports of progress all day on the meeting of Eurogroup ministers on a bailout memorandum. But just before 6:30 PM, the Greece government announced that any discussion of a bailout memo was off.

Obama, Treasury Pushing Back Against Troika Grexit Threats; Bernie Sanders Presses for Fed to Prod ECB

The Administration realizes the risk of Grexit is real and is trying to fend that off. But even if they succeed, don’t expect that to add up to much in the way of relief for Greece.

Wolf Richter: Wall Street Has a Dream About the Price of Oil

Is Wall Street’s upbeat take on the prospect for a continued recovery in oil prices credible?

Is Syriza About to Score a Tactical Win Against the Troika?

Those who were hoping that Syriza would be cowed by the ECB’s aggressive moves to shut Greece out of bond markets and Eurozone finance ministers’ unified resistance to the new government’s proposals are no doubt frustrated by its refusal to capitulate. On Sunday, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras gave a rousing speech reaffirming Syriza’s plans.

Michael Pettis: Syriza and the French Indemnity of 1871-73

Get a cup of coffee. This is a fabulous, readable but nevertheless carefully argued and therefore long post on the drivers of the Eurzone crisis and what the parameters for a sensible resolutions are.

Bracing for Another Storm in Emerging Markets

This post dovetails with the Michael Pettis article today. Hot money is the bane of emerging markets, but the opposition to regulating capital flows remains fierce.

Time for #GreekLivesMatter

If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem.

The Troika’s willingness to turn Greece into a failed state first, as a side effect of its “rescue the French and German banks” operation, and now, as part of its German hegemony protection racket, is killing people and in the longer term will only accelerate the rise of extreme right wing elements in the Eurozone. As Ilagi wrote last week:

Does the EU have any moral values at all? And if not, why are you, if you live in the EU, part of it? .

Because you don’t have any, either? And if you do, where’s your voice? There are people suffering and dying who are part of a union that you are part of. That makes you an accomplice. You can’t hide from that just because your media choose to ignore your reality from you.

Why is Yellen Supporting the ECB Attack on Greece?

As we describe in our earlier post today on Greece, the ECB’s hit job on Greece is an continuation of the destructive and ultimately self-defeating practice of letting the pet needs of banks trump those of governments and social orders. The ECB is willing to turn Greece into a failed state out of what looks like sheer brutality, with the apparent rationalization that punishing Greece will serve pour decourager les autres, meaning the other periphery countries, and potentially even France, that are calling for relief from failed austerity policies.

ECB to Greece: Drop Dead

Even by the standards of bank thuggishness, the move by the ECB against Greece last night was a stunner. Americans have become used to banks taking houses under dubious pretexts when both the investors and borrowers would do better with a writedown. But to see the ECB try take a country is another matter entirely. As one seasoned pro said, “If anyone had tried something like this against a country with a decent sized military, the tanks would be rolling.”

The ECB Tightens the Choke Chain on Greece

We said that the ECB held the trump cards in dealing with Greece, via being able to impose conditions on its access to the Emergency Liquidity Authority. We thought the ECB would send an initial signal as to how opposed it was to Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’ bold proposals in whether it imposed conditions and how severe those were on the Greek Central bank’s request to access ELA funds, which it is sure to approve to tomorrow.

It turns out the ECB isn’t waiting that long to let its views be known.