Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Wolf Richter: A CEO Explains Why He Sold A German Soul To The Chinese

Yves here. I find this story of a Chinese acquisition gone pear shaped interesting for several reasons. Since academic research consistently finds that the majority of acquisitions are losers for the buyers, it’s not a surprise that the deal did not work out. But this one looks to be a particularly extreme fail. Having worked a bit on international deals, and for companies operating in foreign markets, cross border transactions have an even lower success rate than domestic ones. The big reason is the one mentioned here, which is marked cultural incompatibility between the seller and buyer. Here the Chinese did less badly than they could have (they could have tried forcing Chinese practices on the German operation, which would have destroyed the value of the asset). But the logic of the transaction was unclear. Was it technology transfer? Consolidation? It appears both might have been goals, and neither happened very much.

While Cyprus Sinks, France and Slovenia Start to Founder

The official sick man list of Europe has long been the PIIGS, or if you prefer, the GIPSI: Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal. As the Cyprus restructuring drama has moved into high gear, it’s obscured news of a serious deterioration in the French economy and the weakened condition of Slovenia, which has a population and GDP roughly 1.5 times as large as that of Cyprus.

Krugman’s Bad Math on Cyprus

Paul Krugman, in a post earlier today, Cyprus: The Sum of All FUBAR, acts as if he has figured out what is the real problem with Cyprus. The only problem is his math is all wrong, and a better analysis undermines his major assertions.

Cyprus Bailout: What to do Now?

Yves here. You will notice that this list of options for Cyprus is very depressing and does not envision Russia riding in to the rescue in a big way. It also treats a 20% fall in GDP as a possibly optimistic base case.

Cyprus: Will the Mouse That Roared be Gored? (Updated)

Cyprus, as its President Nicos Anastasiades predicted but no one outside Cyprus quite believed would happen, has resoundingly defied the will of the Eurozone in failing to surrender a single Parliamentary vote to a diktat to haircut depositors to save its number two bank, whose failure would in all likelihood bring down Cyprus’s entire banking system. The members of the President’s own party abstained despite his resigned support for the deal. And mind you, this was after the terms revised to allow for deposits under €20,000 to be spared.

The EU was utterly unprepared for this rebellion.

The Dangers of a Chinese Financial Crisis

Yves here. Even the China bulls are coming to see the financial system as a risk factor.

Philip Pilkington: Why MMT is Right and the Dreamers are Wrong – Kaldor Versus the Kaldorians

By Philip Pilkington, a writer and research assistant at Kingston University in London. You can follow him on Twitter @pilkingtonphil

Dreaming, I was only dreaming
I wake and I find you asleep

– Billie Holiday “Gloomy Sunday”

The criticisms of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) on the internet and in academia can be placed into three categories: the cranks; the nit-pickers; and the Kaldorians.

Gaming the Cyprus Negotiations (Updated)

The state of play in Cyprus is that negotiations in Parliament are underway, with the hope of a yes vote on a “Plan B” today. The Cypriot officialdom has allowed for slippage in this timetable, with the bank holiday in effect till Thursday. The latest events were largely a nothingburger, aside from the big news of the failure to approve the president’s plan yesterday: European ministers confirmed that they’ll approve an agreement so long as Cyrpus obtains €5.8 billion from depositors. Monday night, President Nicos Anastasiades gave his version of the Hank Paulson armageddon speech on national TV, laying out the fact that no deal means an immediate collapse of “one bank” (presumably Liaki), and a possible exit from the Eurozone.

The widespread assumption is that the Cypriots will fall into line, since the alternative really does look even uglier. But the runway is pretty short.

Bill Black: O’Donnell Thinks Krugman is “A Lonely Voice Opposing Austerity” Because he Listens to MSNBC

By Bill Black, the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Jointly posted with New Economic Perspectives

MSNBC persists in running a pro-austerity line by falsely presenting Paul Krugman as a isolated opponent of economic malpractice.

Cathy O’Neil: Black Scholes and the normal distribution

By Cathy O’Neil, a data scientist. Cross posted from mathbabe

There have been lots of comments and confusion, especially in this post, over what people in finance do or do not assume about how the markets work. I wanted to dispel some myths (at the risk of creating more).

China’s Exploding Debt

By C.P. Chandrasekhar, Professor of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Cross posted from Triple Crisis

If the international media are to be believed the world, still struggling with recession, is faced with a potential new threat emanating from China. Underlying that threat is a rapid rise in credit provided by a “shadow banking” sector to developers in an increasingly fragile property market.

Wolf Richter: A “Politically Explosive” Secret – Italians Are Over Twice As Wealthy As Germans

Yves here. The comparatively low wealth of Germans should come as no surprise. It’s a direct result of German policies to suppress domestic wages, known as the Hartz reforms (see this post for more detail). But as Wolf indicates, that’s not how it will be seen in Germany.

J.D. Alt: Our Fiscal Anorexia

Yves here. This post is useful in that it suggests short, simple ways to debunk the idea that deficit cutting is a good thing and to make the argument politically palatable. The trouble some readers will have is in positing that Obama is interested in policies that are good for middle class Americans, as opposed to his wealthy backers.

As Dow Sprints to New High, the Middle Class and Manufacturing Languish

It’s hard to fathom the celebratory mood in the US markets, save that the moneyed classes are benefitting from a wall of liquidity reminiscent of early 2007, when risk spreads across virtually all types of lending shrank to scarily low levels. Then the culprit was not well understood, although Gillian Tett discerned that CDOs were a huge source of leverage, and in April 2007, an analyst, Henry Maxey at Ruffler, LLC, did an impressive job of piecing together how levered structured credit strategies were driving market liquidity.

Now it’s a lot easier to see what is afoot.

Philip Pilkington: Hyperinflation! The Libertarian Fantasy That Never Occurs

By Philip Pilkington, a writer and research assistant at Kingston University in London. You can follow him on Twitter @pilkingtonphil

While it is probably true that no one has ever gone broke underestimating the intelligence of the public, it is also true that many who try to turn a profit from stupidity often become the victims of their own nonsense. As we have discussed previously, the fear industry that has grown up since 2008 – mainly centred on the gold market – is a manifestation of this dynamic.