Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Congressional Oversight Panel: Serious Pain in Commercial Real Estate Just Starting

The February report from the Congressional Oversight Panel makes for sobering reading. It forecasts $200 to $300 billion in losses coming from commercial real estate loans, and notes these were not considered in the famed stress tests, since that process looked only through 2010, when the losses from CRE will peak later. Some snippets (hat […]

Devaluing Currencies May Not Be Such a Great Economic Cure After All

Reader Swedish Lex points out an important implication of a recent VoxEU post on the Nordic economic model and how it fared in the crisis: The Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden – are champions of free trade and open markets… The Nordics have all had different monetary regimes since the euro. […]

China’s Burgeoning Local Debt Means Debt, Banking System Risk Understated

Victor Shih has done some serious analytical work to try to get a handle on the magnitude of China’s local debt. His post, which included extracts from his op-ed in the Asian Wall Street Journal, shows that some of the narratives about China are woefully incomplete. The whole post is very much worth reading, but […]

Wray: The Federal Budget is NOT like a Household Budget – Here’s Why

By L. Randall Wray, a Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City who also writes for New Deal 2.0 Whenever a demagogue wants to whip up hysteria about federal budget deficits, he or she invariably begins with an analogy to a household’s budget: “No household can continually spend more than its income, and […]

Iacono: Was There a Global Savings Glut in 1986?

By Tim Iacono, who publishes a weekly investment newsletter on natural resources and the blog The Mess That Greenspan Made It seems that, once again, former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan has grown tired of listening to his critics who have increasingly laid blame at his feet for the inflation of (and, more importantly, the subsequent […]

Germany Backs Greek Rescue to Save German Banks (Update: Germany Says No Decision Made)

Equities and commodities markets rallied on the belief that Greece would be rescued, and that notion is increasingly looking accurate. The Telegraph provides an update (hat tip Swedish Lex): Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, has asked officials to prepare a plan in time for a summit of EU leaders on Thursday, according to reports in […]

Bank Securitization Woes Only Beginning

We remarked last week that the FDIC had put forward a proposal for fixing the securitization market. To be a bit more precise, it was the FDIC’s plan, put forward for public comment, of the rules it wanted to have in place for banks to get “safe harbor”, meaning off balance sheet treatment, for their […]

Quelle Surprise! Lack of Small Business Hiring Likely to Put Dent in Recovery

The article tonight at Bloomberg, “No Job Growth for Small Business Spurs Recovery Doubt,” is a bit surprising, because so many of the people quoted in the article seem….surprised. It appears to have suddenly dawned on some economists and commentators that small concerns aren’t adding jobs, and that might have broader ramifications. What is peculiar […]

Is Greek Crisis a Precursor to a “Global Margin Call”?

Two readers, Don B and Marshall Auerback, pointed to a Ambrose Evans-Pritchard story at the Telegraph which argues the the sovereign debt perturbations have the potential to have ramifications as serious as the subprime/Alt-A crisis. Now Evans-Pritchard has a tendency to the apocalyptic, but he also made some astute calls in 2007 and 2008 (as […]

Is the Need for Simple Stories Getting in the Way of Banking Reform?

Let’s acknowledge the obvious: there are a lot of not trivial impediments to reining in the banking industry: the deregulation policies that put a comparatively small number of firms in charge of infrastructure critical to commerce; the fact that said firms have done a very good job at disguising the rents they collect; that those […]

Are Greek Sovereign Debt Tremors a Start of a New Phase of the Crisis?

After the months of buoyant markets, a return to crisis-type headlines seems troublingly familiar, even though the perturbations of the last day or so are a pale shadow of the worst months of the crisis. And some are making the bull case. For instance, a headline at Clusterstock trumpetss, “Yesterday’s Bloodshed Sent The VIX Soaring […]

Alford: “Why Bernanke Should Resign”

By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. There was a long period of time during which I believed that Mr. Bernanke should have resigned the Chairmanship […]

Should Germany Quit the EU Rather Than Rescue Greece?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard today has his usual type of offering: extreme, but nevertheless based on a valid observation, on his favorite hobbyhorse, the EMU. His key observation comes at the end: EMU architects were warned in the early 1990s that monetary union would prove unworkable as constructed. They scoffed, sure that any crisis could be exploited […]

“State of the Union: A Muddled Message”

By Marshall Auerback, a fund manager and investment strategist who writes for New Deal 2.0. If nothing else, it’s clear (as one wag wrote this morning) that the state of Obama’s rhetoric is strong. The President almost always gives a good speech, but it’s the follow-through that is generally problematic. And the speech itself sends […]